Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 6

Episode Date: October 13, 2022

Geoff is back with Matt to share their five best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season. The boys talk through every game on the slate, identify every bit of value available on the game lines, and make their picks for the weekend. Plus, Geoff shares his thoughts on Davante Adams being charged with assault, and the AFC Divisional rematch between the Chiefs and Bills on tap for Sunday afternoon.As always, leave a rating and follow the pod if you enjoyed this episode, and be sure to comment or tweet @geoffschwartz to let him know what you think of the show!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday october 13th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz as smart you're powered by the varsity podcast network it is our weekly wagering preview for the national football league weekend we start with thursday night football we go through all the games all the way up and through the mind of football we'll give you our five favorite wagers and we hope those five end up on the winning uh and the winning way they have not the past week we were one and four we were 13 we are 13 excuse me 11 13 and one in the season matt we've been good bad good bad the bad is just always so bad and the good is never like five and oh right so we gotta find a way to do better than this please rate review subscribe if you like this

share with your friends leave Leave us a comment. Fade us. Do whatever you want. We're not even good enough really to fade either. We're not bad enough to fade. We're not good enough to make any money yet. Yet. What did you learn, Matt, about our process last week?

I learned that it's really hard to do this on Wednesdays, to be honest. There were a few things. By the time the week sort of moved along i started to really start to doubt miami a little bit that one you know everybody who picked the jets feels like a genius he went against the third string quarterback congratulations but it truly is hard we're taping this uh before the super contest lines drop that usually dictates like sort of the way things are moving um so not to give us a total cop out um but that is the thing i really learned just by saturday or sunday i'm always feel like i'm texting you like

hey do we like this instead but you know we got to just get out there we're gonna be vulnerable for people there's not enough men being vulnerable out there in the world we're exposing ourselves we're gonna not that way though not that way but it's just an audio show anyway but if we were to just put ourselves out there and say, like, hey, this will be like Wednesday at 11 a.m. Pacific time. Yeah. That's so be it. Like some of them aren't going to be dead on all the time.

But we'll be better this week. We did get lucky, though, with the Browns line plus two and a half on Wednesday. Yeah, we did. We lost by two. But, yeah, I mean, look, the Dolphins pick. But then the Ravens screwed us. So it's like, you know, it was one of each. I knew. I hadn't gone Chiefs all yearins pick. But then the Ravens screwed us. So it's like, you know, it was one of each. I knew.

I hadn't gone Chiefs all year, Matt. Hadn't done it all season. I went off the deep end with the Chiefs and gave a crappy. I knew better and did it anyways. I did it anyways. I wonder if we're taking the Chiefs this week. We'll see. We'll get to them.

Mahomes' first time as an underdog at home his entire career. His entire career. Pretty wild. Underdogs continue to have to do well though underdogs and unders no no surprise um all right let's get to uh the first game of the week do we have to i mean i think so it's your favorite football team oh man this this moved actually it's this is bounced around a bit we have the Bears getting a point at home now against Los Camanderos I think it's a pick them right at the moment well I'd rather not

pick them if I'm being honest I think I don't know who could possibly have a feel for this one to be honest like I mean do you the bears are getting all the money all the tickets like why like i think like i think if you're if you're doing the if you're betting on this game based off of just like how we would normally wager in a game

you would take washington here i don't want to do it i'm not gonna do it and the under by the way it continues to hit on primetime unders. So I would look at the under 30. I think it's 38 right now. But you at least above get 30. You're above 37 for now. No, I don't feel great about this. Ron Rivera had to walk back Carson Wentz comments that he made.

The Bears, their fans are cheering because they attempted like more than 15 passes in the game. It's another Thursday football game. It's just going to be a disaster. Yeah, a rare public misstep from Rivera. And to Wentz's credit, he handled it pretty well. He's very good in a press conference, Wentz. He eats a lot of poop. Yeah, he's just not good at quarterbacking.

Yeah, stay away city for us. Let's move on to Sunday. first line is an interesting one bucks laying eight in pittsburgh um i'm actually surprised this is the number we're getting because this one was higher last i looked i see eight and a half right now okay it's a little better we gotta take pittsburgh yeah they absolutely stink they're so bad they're atrocious eight and a half at home is a lot of points for tampa team guys that just hasn't played that good football they lost the packers they lost the chiefs and they didn't cover this past weekend like i think can he pick it back at home now will be a little bit rejuvenated. He wasn't that bad.

The defense just got smoked. And I think this is the right spot. All the money in Tampa Bay here. We know, look, Tomlin's underdog is fantastic. We get that. I don't like wagering on really bad football teams, but this is kind of the opposite of that Chiefs pick from last weekend. This is kind of the ones that win. You don't like them, and you're like, bleh. But in the end, this is the ones that cover of that chiefs pick from last weekend. Like this is the kind of the ones that win. You don't like them and you're like,

but in the end, this is the ones that cover man. They just do. A hundred percent. Right. This isn't, this is not about the two teams. This is about the number and the situation.

You're getting the Steelers at an absolute low. They played a bills team on the road and pickets first start. The bills love to grave dance. They love to win by 50. You're getting the Steelers, who are embarrassed, coming back home against a Bucks team that just hasn't looked right, to be totally honest, and doesn't need to go in there and make a statement. So I feel pretty comfortable, especially with 8.5.

It's no one's favorite thing of the week but this is this is how you win over time even if this isn't the right one you just got to do it i i agree i don't have a great analysis for you other than um you know that mike tallman is just really good as an underdog against the spread especially um at home it's the best in league history. There's a home dog. It's insane. Yeah. So I'm very okay with playing Pittsburgh here and just on Sunday, just strapping it in and sitting down and hoping we get a cover here, buddy. But I feel better than taking a big favorite, I think, in this spot. I think so. All right, let's pencil that one in.

Moving to everyone's favorite team now the jets are getting seven points at lambo uh with this very curious packers team that i cannot believe busted my teaser last week against the giants um i don't know man do you have any feel for this one i feel like uh the jets the jets by the way do you remember at the beginning of the season, we did that podcast where we were both laughing so hard for like two minutes because I was like, Hey, like,

but what about if we took the Jets to make the playoffs at like plus 900, that actually would have been a pretty interesting bet right now. It's not going to hold up, but they're kind of frisky little team, aren't they? Yeah, they are frisky. If it needed multiple comebacks to, you, but they're kind of a frisky little team, aren't they? They are frisky. If it needed multiple comebacks, they had a 13-point comeback

with under two minutes, a 10-point comeback. It's picks where they dominated. The Dolphins game was 19-17, I think, in the fourth quarter, and all of a sudden it's 40-17. I don't have a great feel for this one. I mean, the line is high. The Packers just didn't play very well in London, but I feel like there's definitely a bounce-back situation here for them.

Again, the Jets, I don't know. Their defense is better than we thought. Zach Wilson, again, is kind of feisty, but not overly great. Seven's a lot. I don't really – back on the Jets here feels not like – it's not a smart decision. Yeah, we're riding pretty high. They've been back on the jets here feels not like it's not a smart decision yeah we're riding pretty high they've been good on the road um so that last week uh was their first home win i kind of i don't i didn't mind this one actually um jets yeah but i think we can find better but

i i just it's green bay every single game with the exception of the Bears game, has been a one-score affair. Well, the Vikings game, they got blown out, so throw that one away. But even their wins, they've been close for the most part. Two weeks ago, Bailey Zappi came in there, and that one went to overtime, went to the last play. I just don't think Green bay's beating you know pulling away from anybody um and i i think still that this is i think green bay is just a little bit too respected

for what they've actually done this year and the jets like the jets you you mentioned it like every week they seem to come back out of the big hole like they're always either down or it's close and then at the end of the game like they just seem to pop off and by the way great call you in the another uh preseason show you gave out breeze hall rookie of the year we gave on damian pierce also it feels like those are the two offensive contenders at the moment i don't think we i don't think we gave out pierce as far as that wage i think we took him for uh to any any texans running back to rush for 1,000 yards at plus 700. We took that too. Yeah, I feel like we did take pairs.

It was like plus 2,000. It was something crazy. Maybe it's not on here. But yeah, our wagers actually look. We have 400 bucks still, I think, to spend, or 350 if you want. Giants no put offs is like minus 130 right now. Oh, that's it? We have to lay money for that?

They're four and one? No, Giants no put offs. Yeah, but they still get the Los Comanderos twice. I don't know. So they got at least six. No, you're right there. We don't have to take this one. I'll put them in maybe. It's a maybe. Okay. Perfect.

The other New York team is playing the Ravens this week. They are five-point home underdogs. This is the most confusing line of the week to me. I don't know what to do with it. So this year we bet on the Ravens, I believe, three times, right? We bet on them, and they blew a 21-point lead, didn't cover.

We bet on them, and they pushed after being up 20-3. We bet on them, and they won by two when they had they're laying three yep the giants are like not good but they're winning yes they play terrible at home dude like they're just they've always been bad at home there seems to always kind of be this like this london fog a little bit it's like hangover after playing in london i'm seeing the money situation right now i mean it's all it's not really on the interesting i see 50 of the bets on the ravens but all the money 50 on the giants only 13 of the money on the giants so some sharp action on the ravens here i'd be okay playing baltimore and i

mean we're gonna get burned again probably but at some point the giants have to come back to earth man like they're just not as good as their record i mean they're 18th in dvoa and they're four and one right now yeah baltimore's third in dvoa by the way i mean baltimore is just gonna end up turning this around at some point. Last week, speaking of those London hangovers, I was very strong on the Seahawks' first half money line, which ended up being a miracle cover, so congrats to anyone who took that one. That's the play here. Baltimore, first half.

They always seem to come out with a big lead there. I think Lamar Jackson's first half splits in his career are just asinine. That's one I would jump on, assuming you're getting about three, two and a half, something like that. The teams coming back from London tend to do pretty poorly in the first half. The Ravens, though, you mentioned it. It's like, I think their problem seems to be like they can't... The year where Jackson was MVP and they could just ice games by running the ball a hundred times it was a little bit of him like that it's what they did on that last drive where it wasn't anything fancy it was just like lamar design runs short passes to andrews and duvernay like that's

their bread and butter but they don't have like until dobbins is himself and that offensive line isn't what it was a couple years ago like they don't they're not just like running out the clock on people like they used to so it doesn't seem like they can just sort of salt away wins anymore so i don't know i the five is just such a bad number anyway but yeah i put on the maybes yeah that's maybe well i'm afraid jeff that this one is going to be a definite i it's just going to happen the 49ers are going to the heroes of the gambling community atlanta falcons they're plus five and a half at home tell me why anyone on earth would take the 49ers this week i know you can't they're out bosa

they're out eric armstead they're out trent williams they're they're a state in west virginia but they're going back to play that. They've been out on the East coast now for two weeks. Um, and the Falcons are just fricking feisty, dude. Uh, I hate being in Atlanta.

You know that, but they're showing the ability to just battle all game. They battle and they've claw and they fight, they play hard. Um, and they do enough to keep themselves close in these games. I'm looking at their, you know,

their, their, and this, this feels like Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't had like, since I guess it's the Broncos game, but really hasn't had one of those. Like you're like, Oh,

what? Oh, that throw. Oh, Oh no. I didn't have one of those in a while. It feels like the weekend to have those type of place. Yeah.

Um, the 49ers best win this season is probably against the seahawks they they lost to the bears they lost to the broncos they beat the panthers who then fired their coach and if mayfield was healthy they would have benched him um and they beat the rams who just you know aren't the rams and that those wins were all at home by the way i just think this is a falcons layup i think that people are basically just like they don't want to get greedy and say like oh well they're five and against the spread like everybody loves betting them we don't want to miss it but like i actually feel like it's being overcautious like 49ers traditionally are not good as favorites under Shanahan, and they're worse as road favorites under Shanahan.

They're worse as road favorites laying more than three with Shanahan. So I love the Falcons here. I feel like you just have to do this one. I don't like Atlanta. I don't like betting on them. But it feels like with all the injuries, the Niners, and I think Jimmy Ward got hurt last weekend too. They're just out a bunch of

guys on the road again they're playing a falcons team i think kyle pitts he practiced today or not um i think i saw him i don't know he practiced today does it even matter like no five catches oh yeah london and pitts both practice today right so, I'm going with Atlanta. I mean, not much else to say about it. Their offense is funky, man. It's fun to watch their run game. The Niners as well. This could be an under game too, 44.5 points. I'd be okay with under in this one.

Yeah, I like that. All right, the strangest game of the week, Vikings at Dolphins. I am very intrigued by the Dol getting three and a half at home. Assuming Bridgewater plays at this time. We're recording this. It seems like he's going to, but it's hard to handicap. Still in the protocol.

Yeah. I think if he was playing this line, it wouldn't be four, right? I mean, would it be four if he's playing, you think, or less? I don't know what, right? I mean, would it be four if he's playing, you think? Or less?

I don't know why this moved. Maybe they think he's not playing. It's strange that it moved. I saw this at three every time I looked at it this week, and now it's up to three and a half, so maybe they know something. I don't know. I see fours, too. Yeah, we're seeing fours, too.

What's your thoughts? I think we can't do anything if we don't know bridgewater's playing or not yeah i think bridgewater's playing would be all over the four here right because again all he does is cover dolphins are decent on defense now vikings on the road in the heat man yeah yeah i don't i don't buy cousins in that nope that's interesting four Four. Huh. They must know something. Or it's even like if Bridgewater doesn't practice all week, what are you getting out of him, I guess.

I don't trust this Vikings team even a little bit. I feel like even against a third-string quarterback, I might still kind of be interested in Miami. And the line will move up. So this is on Wednesday, you have to wait on this. There's no way we can put it in. They're right next to each other in DVOA, by the way. So Miami is number one in explosive pass plays.

Vikings D is 31st versus explosive pass plays. So kind of a, obviously, if third string quarterback is playing, you feel much different about that. Miami's defense is, excuse me, Miami's offense, again, just continues to, when they're healthy, continue to do a lot of good things. The Vikings don't sack the quarterback. They're 26 yards per play.

Dolphins are fifth. But again, a lot of this comes down to is Teddy Bridgewater playing or not. Yeah. It'll be interesting. The Dolphins came out so hot. Now I think people are off of them. Tyree Kill looks like he is going to play he left in a walking boot last week after after getting absolutely mauled by quinn and williams which

was hilarious okay moving on to the andy dalton bowl the bangles at the saints the saints getting two points at home hugely public play on the on the bangles here but it's super hard though super hard about the saints um what do you think is it is it really super hard that they're good on yeah it's not they're good on defense they're going to harass the bangles offensive line because they're very one-dimensional on offense right now they cannot run the ball very well um you know there's obviously this this idea of like joe burrow coming back home, right? Like, how great is that? All right, but that shouldn't matter toward the line, right? Right.

It really shouldn't, in my opinion. The Bengals have an equally good defense. I mean, they're playing much better on defense, but this feels like a huge public road team, like the Bengals, who are 2-'re two and three right are they three and two two and three an awful loss too i'm climbing taking the saints huh interesting i i think i am too and i actually i'm not sure what the case is back right yeah i was gonna say and he like last week i mean this this is what this is

when the Saints win games is when Kamara does stuff and then Taysom Hill does stuff and the quarterback doesn't kill them and their defense doesn't get overwhelmed and the Bengals are just not the Bengals like it's we're far enough into the season. We can say it's like Chase is not the same guy

Higgins has been nicked up a little bit Mixon isn't scaring anybody the offensive line isn't much improved. The defense is not the same guy. Higgins has been nicked up a little bit. Mixon isn't scaring anybody. The offensive line isn't much improved. The defense isn't any better. They're just tough. I think it's a pretty good play on the Saints. Man.

I'm going to put them in okay. I mean, again, this is kind of like we're going against the public here as we always sort of do. I think the Saints, we know they're getting a little healthier, right? This is more of like an anti-Bengals. We've told ourselves at the start of the season we were going to fade to Bengals as much as possible. Yep. I'm fine with it.

Let's stick with it. Yeah. All right. I'm good with that. Three good dogs. Three home dogs so far. I love that. Okay.

Patriots and the Zap Man are going to Cleveland, who are two-and-a-half-point home favorites. We assume that the Zap man is the quarterback, but we're not sure yet, as of Wednesday morning Pacific. Browns, Rondy, not great. Think you like Cleveland here? I do, but I don't know what conviction I have.

Do you like Cleveland, too? I feel like they're a really hard team to wager on because jacobo brissett keeps throwing terrible red zone interceptions yes and each week we're like the browns are running the ball well they're doing what they have to do they're in this game boom terrible interception boom terrible interception terrible interception yeah like i i'm just i i just the browns are probably the play here again they're running the ball well the defense is doing just enough obviously because the chargers really have the first quarter was much rougher than it probably had to be and the patriots are coming off of dominating against the lions who stink for the most part and you know bailey zappy first start

on the road, yeah, it's Cleveland. It's not the best home field, but it's still Cleveland. Cleveland's 30th, by the way, in defensive DVOA. I would just stay away, honestly. I'd be fine on Cleveland. I'd be able to pick one of these, but I would stay away. Yeah, let's stay away. There's a lot of things.

Zappi is like – if you forget about that, the Browns are so predictable in what they do on offense, but they do it really well. And I feel like against a Belichick team, like you're probably not just going to be like, cool, we're just going to give the ball to Chubb 50 times and, and,

you know, just beat you. Like it's, it's clear. That's what they are going to do until they get her, you know, Watson back. So I agree. This is dayway. I don't have a great feel for it. God, clear that's what they are going to do until they get you know watson back so i i agree this is

dayway i don't have a great feel for it god a game that we might bet and definitely won't watch would be the jags going to indy to play the colts jags on the colts the texans on the jags this is like what the weirdest little division but you want to bet this game we might i don't know the the colts are laying two and a half. Why exactly do we think the Colts are favored against anyone at the moment? I'm confused. That's a good point, I guess. I just hate betting on any game that involves the Colts. We can bet against them.

The problem is all the money's on Jacksonville this weekend. As a road, two and a half points. The best part about this game is we gave you guys Devin Lloyd as Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he's going to win that award. So congratulations. Hopefully you guys listen to us. That plus 1,500 number we gave you guys. Yeah, Jacksonville's better than Indianapolis here.

We saw the debacle that happened on Thursday night with uh with indy and indy has won one you know two games that denver game by three in the chiefs game by three but i do worry there's a little bit of feels like a regression from jacksonville right now even though they're seventh in dvoa and the culture dead last at 32 i mean hmm the colts the that bad, aren't they? The Colts stink, man. And Jonathan Taylor didn't practice today or Wednesday. I just think the Jaguars, their outcomes have been really strange. Remember, they went to the Chargers and beat them 38-10, but they also lost to Los Comanderos.

So it's pretty, and they lost to the Texans. It's like maybe the two worst teams in the league. So it's hard to trust them. They do own the Jags, but these teams also played in week one. I'm sorry, they own the Colts, but they also played week one. So you'd think this is probably going to be pretty close. It's probably a stay away, but I think Jacksonville's better. Like for road teams, we've taken three home teams. is probably going to be pretty close. It's probably a stay away, but I think Jacksonville is better.

For road teams, we've taken three home teams. Would you rather take Jacksonville plus two and a half or Baltimore minus five? I mean, I'd so much rather take Baltimore. I think this is just probably a stay away, but I did want to have the exercise because the Colts sling points, forget it. Yeah, we weren't taking the Colts in that situation. Put it like that. No chance.

Hank's favorite game of the week, the Panthers are at the Rams. The Rams are laying 10.5. Obviously, the Panthers fired their coach this week. Man, that's a big number for the Rams who can't seem to score or move the ball.

They had a little bit of bad luck last week. It's a big number, and all the money's on Carolina. And P.J. Walker, by the way, probably is the best quarterback in the Panthers' locker room. He was 2-0, I think, against the spread when he played last year, and he won both of those games straight up. Wow. I wouldn't hate to take the Panthers with the 10.5 here.

I can't believe I'm saying it. Oof. The Rams are struggling right now, right? Offensive line, not great. Stafford not playing as well. Defense is not that bad. They're just, you know, the offense is not providing them a lot of support. But the Panthers just,

I know we're betting numbers, not teams, man. But the Panthers just aren't very good, I don't think. I think the Rams, like this is a... Hot take alert. They might, I know, right? They might, and the problem is we're talking about covering, not money line stuff, right?

So like the Rams need this game in the worst way and they're playing a bad team who fired their coaches traveling across the country i don't know if i like 10 and a half but i just don't know if i like the panthers to cover this either i mean this is yeah this is betting on a huge unknown um steve wilkes has been a head coach before um you know i i think that that does definitely matter like he's more experienced as a head coach before um you know i i think that that does definitely matter like he's more experienced as a head coach than matt rule was when he got hired um so there's something to be said for that i mean the rams like i do i don't think the rams would like i think the rams would be happy with a win don't you like i feel like they would just be fine with like this mobile

quarterback who's gonna do some stuff like don't you feel like we're going to look up and be like, Oh, DJ Morris, three touchdowns today. Like he finally got open because he hates Baker Mayfield so much. Like this just feels like a weird game. Sure. But I didn't put, I'm with you there, but I don't want to wager on it though. Like I, that's fine. Things like I'm fine with like,

I could definitely the Panthers keeping it close because PJ Walker makes some plays and so far stadiums dead. But like, I could definitely do the Panthers keeping it close because PJ Walker makes some plays and SoFi Stadium's dead. But like, I just don't want to bet on the Panthers. I don't want to be in a spot where I'm like, oh crap, they're already down 17-0. Right. Yeah. I feel like I'm talking to myself.

You mentioned SoFi. It's going to be like a church there. Like there's, all the Rams fans are devastated. Oh yeah. Like the Panthers, like it's just going to be, I don't know. There's no Panther fans. Yeah. It's like they're traveling. All right yeah. Like the Panther. It's just going to be, I don't know. There's no Panther fans. Yeah.

It's like they're traveling. All right. Let's pass it. But I'm very intrigued by that number. All right. Cardinals, Seahawks. Seahawks, home dogs. Getting two and a half against Arizona.

Oh, man. This one's tough, buddy. Don't you feel like we should just bet both of these teams to win the division? Like, isn't that the way to play it? Like we would have been better. Maybe that's what we do with our cash.

No. Well, who's the one that's division you think? Well, exactly. It's like the Rams suck. The 49ers, they're already falling apart.

Like they always do. I mean, the Cardinals get Hopkins back. The Seahawks, like. I'm not betting on either one of these teams to make the playoffs. That seems silly. Yeah, it does. You're betting on Cliff Kingsbury, who can't manage anything well

and who sucks at the end of the season. Or Geno Smith. Pete Carroll came out today, by the way, and said, like, Drew Locke is, like, itching to play. And I was like, dude, like, come on, man. Give it a rest. Geno Smith's playing really well. Geno Smith. Pete Carroll came out today, by the way, and said, like, Drew Locke is, like, itching to play. And I was like, dude, like, come on, man. Give it a rest. Geno Smith's playing really well. Geno's been great.

Like, Geno's been awesome. I mean, I certainly think I feel comfortable taking the Seahawks here plus the two and a half. Three would be better. I just never buy Arizona. They're just not a well-coached team. But Seattle's defense is not very good. And I feel like this is a game where we could see Kyler Murray go off

if the Seahawks defense – I mean, Taysom Hill ran for 1,000 yards against this team. I could just see Seattle allowing a ton of yards in this game and Arizona running it up on them. And the Geno Smith thing has got to come at some point, kind of come back down to earth. Yeah, it does. This, I don't really, yeah,

I don't really trust either of these teams. I like, the four maybes we have are the Jets, Ravens, Dolphins, and Panthers. I like all of them way more than this. So I'm fine to lay off. Yeah, I'm good with that too. All right. Game of the week.

Bill's chiefs. You already mentioned it. My home's home underdog getting two and a half. He seems played last year. Uh, pretty memorably twice. We can get three. I mean,

there's threes, but whatever. There are three is intriguing. I mean, there's, there's two schools here, right? There's threes, but whatever. Their three is intriguing. I mean, there's two schools here, right? There's like, think about it or don't think about it even a little bit and just get the three with Patrick Holmes at home, right? He's 7-0-1 against the spread as an underdog,

and he's never been a home underdog in his entire career. Yeah, things that worry me, obviously Chiefs on a short week and Chiefs just like starting slow well you got 17 nothing that's it like you're just not not coming back in this game but if we can't if we get tampa bay kansas city they're going to win the game um you know buffalo finally won a close game against the ravens they had not done that in three or four years. And so are they kind of back now as far as their ability to win these close games or not? It does feel like I could see a Buffalo blowout more than a Chiefs blowout.

You know what I mean? Like Chiefs win close, Buffalo can win big. And so that makes me, makes difficult i think take the chiefs plus the two and a half i just didn't have kind of one sort of score in mind here i don't what do you think i don't know um it's hard to say i mean a couple of things first the the bills the i feel like this is a much more meaningful game to the bills than it is the chiefs like the chiefs like they've been there this is a long season they have the target on their back every single week um and buffalo like said out loud like we are trying

to beat this team like this is the way we're constructing our team this is what we're trying to do um you know the the way they got their personnel, like, I just feel like this means a lot to Buffalo, but I don't know in what world you can lay points against Mahomes at home in any scenario. I also wonder if last week, like, could it have possibly been a look-ahead spot for KC? Like, maybe they last week just, like,

weren't paying that much attention to the Raiders. I don't think so. We made the argument that they wouldn't because they care about that game. And also, why would they throw four touchdowns to Kelsey in a game they didn't care about? It just doesn't seem like it. They just got physically manhandled early on. What could happen?

The Raiders showed up. The Raiders played a good game. If the team that showed up in Tampa Bay plays this weekend, the Chiefs are winning this game, but it's hard to rely on that because they have been very inconsistent in doing that. Yeah. We're not going to talk about this team because they're on by, but I did want to bring up the Devontae Adams things and the Chiefs are as good of a hook as any. So the latest was that there was a, there was a police report filed today, right? Like, it sounds like there's going to be some...

The story isn't going to go away necessarily. This is ridiculous. Yeah, I know you and Gabe recorded before that game, so I'm just curious what you make of that situation right now. He should be suspended. He will be fined. But a criminal charge against him for this feels a little bit rough. Like, give him some money, fine.

But come on, he didn't get that hurt and it was unfortunate to happen i'm not condoning it at all but assault charges really really matt yeah yeah i don't i i can't imagine that that would be uh that would make sense i i guess you have to suspend him and it's not like you have to, yes. It's like, if somebody else did that, like Devante Adams, like he's,

I feel like no one knows a whole lot about his personality. Like he's just awesome at football and everyone just is like, Oh, he's like, whatever. Like, it seems like a good guy. So I don't,

I think that that might get him like a little bit of, I don't know, slack. This fact that he's been a league this long with no issue. You can't push down like that. Even if he didn't see him, he did cross his face, like kind of like,

you know, very quickly. And he just kind of instinctively did that. But I just, you can't do that. You also shouldn't file for assault. Yeah. The whole thing is lame, but I do think that he has

to be punished severely yeah i i assume you will miss some time and that you know the nfl's i guess kind of fortunate that they don't have to make a decision really fast they can think about it for a week um all right so it doesn't sound like we're betting this game but like if you had to pick kansas city yeah i mean same i mean i there is a world where we just, at the end of this, look at each other and go like, so should we just take Mahomes getting through and half at home? There is a world. We'll see.

We've only got two games left. Man, Cowboys-Eagles. Big line, six points. For Philly at home, Sunday night. Man, Dak is not going to play, we still think, right? That's still the latest. I would have loved this when it opened. I really like Philly in this spot.

You have a real big mismatch at quarterback, and the Cowboys have gone by so far with great defense and running the football protecting Cooper Rush. You're on the road against a team that can put up 28 points on you no matter how good your defense is. And if they score 28, the Cowboys aren't scoring 21 or 23 to cover, right? You have four and a half, five, this is a better number. And all the money in the Cowboys, buddy.

Like we have a reverse line movement to the favorite in this game, which is, like, rare to see. Undefeated favorite. Yeah, undefeated favorite. I'm fine with Eagles minus six here, man. I just think Dallas is – if Dak was playing, I'd be all over Dallas plus six. But there's a big gap between Cooper Rush and what Jalen Hurts is doing

and how the Eagles are playing versus how – as a team, a whole together team and the Cowboys are doing. The Eagles have the offensive line to block to Marcus Lawrence and Michael Parsons. They have those guys to do that. They have the pass rush to disrupt what Cooper Rush wants to do and stop the run. All that's there. The Eagles right now

without Dak Prescott are a better football team. Yeah. The problem with Philly, the problem with them is that they don't close games out like they end up they let everybody back in like other than the vikings every single game has been towards the end there's been a flurry i mean the jags they ended up winning by eight last week's a great example you know the lions at the beginning of the season like the only thing that you mentioned is like

they're so incredibly explosive at the beginning of the game that they could put cooper rush in a position where he has to throw them out of it and that's where disaster could finally happen to this kid um there is the five and a half out there i don't know if that makes a huge difference but five is better than six yeah i also just think man it's just like can the Eagles close anybody out and it's two unsustainable paths the Eagles are not going to go undefeated especially if they can't score in the second half

but Dallas has been hanging around they're 4-1 against the spread McCarthy and Rush whatever the combo is they just keep these games close but Philly I'm very intrigued by especially at the 5.5 McCarthy and Rush, whatever the combo is, they just keep these games close. Philly, I'm very intrigued by, especially at the 5.5, but it's a big number for a team that doesn't seem to be able to score in the second half.

I'm okay with playing at 5.5, but we could put on the maybes for now. All right. Maybe it is. um broncos chargers is the monday night game man who's taking denver here uh the line is five right now um broncos country let's ride i'm also not taking the chargers either like and they're they're i just don't think i don't it's brand state like a good coach i don't i don't know man Is Brandon Staley a good coach? I don't know, man. They're so beat up. Clearly not a good coach. He almost blew the game for them single-handedly last week.

I know. And there's so much embarrassment on what the Broncos are doing right now. I feel like they can't continue to play this bad, Matt. Yeah. This is a huge game for them. And they're also off that... This is a really long stretch. They had the Thursday game.

Then they get the whole week. Then they get the whole week. Then they get the Monday. This is not going to be as tough home field to go to. It's a short trip, and there's no fans. Yeah. And this is, I feel like this is the Broncos' kind of Super Bowl. It's like, they have to show up in this game, or this season is just, like, how many more weeks can people just keep piling on this team?

Having said all of that though, like there's absolutely no chance I would take Denver in anything. No, no chance. Absolutely not. That would be the most dangerous thing I've done lately. Yeah, I'm with you.

You ever do anything dangerous? The Danger Witch, yeah. And by the way, did you see the story that it's not even like a spicy sandwich the spiciest parts of the sandwich are like the pepperoncinis pepperoncinis yeah god what man come on russ come on he makes me sad it's sad to watch this. Well, look, I think when you – I saw this on Monday's episode, I think. I saw it somewhere. When you try so hard to cultivate this robotic self, right, this football robot,

when things in the football field don't go as planned, you can't adjust. You become this robot. And that's what happened to russell wilson he's just too robotic man wow that's a that's a really good take that i have not heard like because yeah he does like everything going so according to plan um i do have i do take issue with like everyone's just sort of saying like see like this guy like he's not good like we've been saying it all along it's like no he's good he's just like his game has changed circumstances have changed there was some regression and i think people chalked it up to pete carroll being a terrible offensive coach

yeah instead of just maybe russell was not as good anymore i mean he had let's see he had for and from 2012 to 2020 every single year he had over 20 touchdowns in 2020 he had 40 touchdowns they went to the super bowl like he's an amazing player i just don't i don't know what's happening and i think that uh you know i think they have a lot more problems there than russell wilson um but i agree this is like sort of a really important spot for them so i'm not betting them but um somebody else maybe i don't know that's why i take my pick and pulls um all right so we have three we love we have three pittsburgh land new orleans and the maybes are the jets the ravens the jags the chiefs the Chiefs, the Panthers and the Eagles, everything else

we're saying no to the Dolphins, right? for right now, yeah, right let's get the Jags out of there okay I mean, we're basically like Caroline's gotta go no, right, or not I feel like that's the only one that I'm like

maybe, like we've talked about this before, if you like it we're putting it in No, right? Or not? I feel like that's the only one that I'm like, maybe. We've talked about this before. If you like it, we're putting it in. I don't, I mean... I like Philly minus 5.5 probably the best here. Let's do that. Do we do this to the Chiefs and say, fuck it? We just did that last week, too. To me, it comes down to doing

the Chiefs plus three or baltimore minus five i don't want jets plus jets plus seven's kind of juicy too that's i mean like okay the chiefs are playing the best team who's better the jets or giants well that's actually a really good question i think the jets are better um everywhere but coaching i think the jets are better the jets are getting a ton of money in this game who worries me those baltimore i mean i like the chiefs getting points more than baltimore laying them at the giants given what we know about Baltimore this year. Carolina is just the number, and P.J. Walker, who I sort of like. And then the Jets are like, we're certainly buying high on the Jets.

Yeah. The line opened up near 10, though. It's at 7 now. So when you guys do the show with Nick Wright, do you just automatically pencil in the Chiefs every week? Does he take on the Chiefs no matter what? He loved them last week. And he bets them every week, right?

He will be on them this week. The way to play the Chiefs is bet them live. Like, Nick's big point is, like, Mahomes' winning percentage down 10 is better than Justin Herbert's in his career. Oh, yeah. And it's a great point and i we were texting i think we were texting about this we both took them live when they were down 14 i took it down 17 yeah i took it on 17 nothing and a half time yeah and it's

like that's how you play the chiefs um they and but the bills are tough man the bills are better in the second half so it's gonna be like they the Chiefs can't come out flat like they do sometimes. They have to come out and show up. I'm fine with it. I mean, I can look in the mirror and say like, hey, we took the home screen points at home. Fine. I love our

first three. Yes. Baltimore, forget it. We've been burned by it. We've taken them too many times. so it's really between Casey and the Jets that's I think where we are Jets at Lambeau I like

them both to be honest I really do I'll leave it up to you how's that for a cop out the Jets getting more of the money oh boy The Jets getting more of the money. Oh, boy. Okay, would you rather be cheering for Mahomes to have a late drive or Zach Wilson?

I mean, let's just take the Chiefs, dude. This has been the Chiefs podcast. All right, so we have Pittsburgh plus 8.5, plus eight and a half atlanta plus five and a half new orleans two philly minus five and a half kent city plus three we have all five home teams yeah how about that like is it good or bad an undefeated team the chiefs and yeah that's a great that's a great list the process worked whether or not now it's the time where we lose all five but it's time to get back over 500 we're not gonna stay here i want a five and oh man we got it this this might be the week um we need a

five and on the worst way do you think there's any chance philly loses i i gotta burn i think i'm gonna use them in survivor this week i don't think so do you i don't i don't think cooper rush is gonna straight up not with cooper rush yeah college getting better on the pac-12 side um 11 and 12 now for the for my career giving out pac-12 wagers 76 and 41 damn good dude that's excellent yeah i have taken i took notre dame minus 15 and a half against stanford i took utah minus three that number has probably changed now i got these sunday night utah's at 3.5. I would look at the under in Corvallis, under 52.5 for the Beavers and the Cougars. I took Washington over 43.5 points. Okay.

Against Arizona, who just allows a ton of points. So those are my Pac-12 wagers. Do you have a favorite maryland wager this weekend i do not uh they are a very high variance team but next week maybe it can give you some nba stuff uh some season long i like tennessee plus seven and a half at home against alabama oh so yeah i would also just fade texas this week i think that's what hank just said in the chat it's just like whoever texas is playing just don't bet they're flying i saw one of those videos this week from one of those yeah one of those guys they're hosting iowa state plus 16

and a half take iowa state i saw one of those videos that was like guys like hey there's a way where texas can make the colorful playoff if they run the table and as soon as i saw it i was like i should probably bet against whoever texas is playing it's like people just love to just gas them up they're like so it's like the giants and jets are going to be like that whenever they crash down to earth it's going to be fast man we 11 13 and1 is not good we got this buddy we just gotta be better I'm putting our picks in right now on the old

I can't see plus 3 plus 3 let's go I love it I love it alright guys well that's it Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network we're back next week hopefully with some winners if you like this show please leave a rating if you! If you like this show, please leave a rating. If you don't like it,

I guess you could leave a rating too, but I mean, if you made it 47 minutes, you'd probably like our show. Five stars would be great. Give us a comment if you would like. We appreciate it. From Matt, Jeff, have a great weekend, everyone.