Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 7

Episode Date: October 20, 2022

Geoff is back with Matt to give you his best bets for week 7 of the NFL season. The boys have been let down by the Chiefs two weeks in a row, can they trust them again on Sunday? How about Kyler Murray on a week when a new COD drops? Or what about this kid Blake Zappe? Tune in for those answers and more, and as always, be sure to leave a rating and comment if you enjoyed, and follow the pod to get notified whenever a new episode drops.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday october 20th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz is smart you're powered by the varsity podcast network we are back for our weekly wagering podcast off a grind of a three and two week we are 14 15 and one don't friend everybody i know we've made no one money in either direction, okay? But this is much better than we've started every year, Matt. So we're on the right track. I think our futures are doing really well right now in the clubhouse. Our pick for defensive player, rookie, excuse me, rookie defensive player of the year and offensive rookie of the year

are on track as favorites right now. We're feeling good about those. So our other futures are probably going to hit as well. So we're in a good spot right now, Matt. How are you doing, buddy? How are we feeling as we head into week seven? Feeling good. I mean, I remember we were pretty big on the Vikings.

I think we put them as like make the playoffs. That was one. I'm on Ross St. Brown, who has missed a week, barely played a week. He's going to crush his over still. I think we took some good running back unders. I feel like we're doing well there. But, you know, Jeff, like we had one stinker of a week.

And then last week we kind of got it together. And I will say, like, we last week, we always talk about is it an advantage or disadvantage to do these on Wednesdays. Last week, we really liked Pittsburgh. Early in the week, we didn't see the injury report. Later in the week, it turns out Fitzpatrick and then half the Pittsburgh secondary. And then, of course, Pickett goes out in the middle of the game. And not only did they cover, they won it outright. So maybe we got a little bit of good fortune there

because we actually thought about changing that one. So we'll take that w but i gotta say that was a great call uh by us and that's a good example of like hey you just sometimes you just take the number even if it makes no sense we've watched a lot of football you played in the league like shit happens we came three minutes away from being five and oh though we missed the harder part about gambling on the nfl is it college football is not real like i had five pack 12 wagers last weekend i was three and two um i'm like 76 and 41 all the time pack 12 which is insane i'm coming at the end of the podcast stick around yeah um and but like the three easily cashed like no sweat like easy cash and the two that didn't weren't even close.

Utah wasn't close. And Stanford won. I had Notre Dame minus 16 and a half. Like, no sweats, really. The only thing you sweat in college is the total sometimes, right? The NFL, man, everything is a sweat. We had New Orleans covering for 58 minutes. We had Kansas City plus three, the advantage of the Wednesday show.

We got a plus three. I think the Super Cup was two and a half. So they were within the number the entire game till the very last 40 seconds of the game. So we'll take our three wins. Three and two every week, man. You win money.

And we still have the $400 left if we see any futures we like, by the way. I don't know if we feel like there's some futures that we like along the way we can do that but uh all right buddy let's get let's uh let's kick it off how can we put that on uh carson wentz never gets his job back i feel like that'd be a pretty good one um let's start with can we bet his unders again oh god if if there were more to bet we should take them um the thursday night game i think two of the most mystifying teams in the league play each other the saints and the cardinals

uh in arizona uh the cardinals are laying two or two and a half right now as we record this uh there is a new call of duty this week so maybe saints um dude okay so the saints though are without let me see here they should get some guys back i guess right last week they were down their top three receivers yeah i think they're down all those guys again i i saved the word the tweet though i saved it saints have ruled out marshall latimore michael thomas jarvis landry, Andres Pete, and Adam Troutman. They're starting tight end. So they're out like a bazillion guys again with Andy Dalton, I would imagine, as their quarterback. I mean, the play is Arizona here. As bad as they've been, they get de-hopped back in the lineup, right? I don't think Robbie Anderson will play. I have no faith in betting on

Cliff Kingsbury in this spot at all. The under, obviously, is certainly in play here. Arizona's not good. I mean, it's not a pro-Arizona take here, but the Saints are just not that good. They're not good at the end of games so far this season, and they're really beat up on a short week going across the country to Arizona. Arizona, I don't think is particularly good.

I don't feel great about this map but if we need one of five i would be okay if this ends up having to be one of our plays i think i agree i'm good to pass it through um i really do think that um the hopkins thing i think it's just flying a little too under the radar like i get it hollywood round was good you know they added robbie anderson for some reason um but you know the cardinal success has really coincided with hopkins being there he just changes i mean we've seen this with these other receivers this year you know we'll get to gree bay later but like the teams that lose that elite receiver their offense just changes and i think this is maybe a goodbye low spot for Arizona.

They're just, I just think people just don't like betting this team. I think a good way to play this also is like, if the saints get up early, Cardinals are awful. I feel like in the first quarter, they never score the first half. They never score.

I think last weekend was the first time they'd scored in the first quarter all year. It was just a field goal. it was a field goal yeah i mean so like they're a good team to bet live um i'm becoming more of an advocate for that so keep an eye on that if they go down a touchdown and then go three and out that's probably a good time to pull the trigger but i'm good with this advancing the maybes especially if we can get the two and a half that's that's not bad um agreement thursday night oh yeah we can actually get two and a half. That's, that's not bad. Agreement. Thursday night. Oh yeah. We can actually get it too. Why don't we say that we're getting it too?

Well, yeah, it's got, it's got to make the way it's got to make it. Yeah. Yeah. It does have to make it. Um,

is there still a two out there? Yep. There's a tracking still too. All right. Uh, looking ahead to Sunday. First game on the slate is a banger. Colts at Titans,

uh, Titans link two and a half at home. These two teams just played each other. Yeah. Uh, October 2nd, uh, at Titans. Titans like two and a half at home. These two teams just played each other. October 2nd, the Titans won in Indy 24-17. Do we think there's a repeat here for Tennessee? I absolutely do. Tennessee's off a bye week here.

They're able to kind of work on some kinks. The offense is feeling a little bit better. One thing that I think still holds true is they have not scored in the fourth quarter of any game this season, but I don't think they've allowed points either. It's like a weird thing they're doing right now where they're not giving up points. They're not scoring in the fourth quarter, which is, again, with their rushing attack and Ryan Tannehill, they should score points.

They should wear teams down, in my opinion and score points um at the end of games they haven't obviously again have not done that very much but they also again they don't allow a lot of points in the second half of games either um so i would lean tennessee here rabels great off a buy i think we both the culture just they're just not good we get a chance here like the colts everyone's back in on the colts like amazing what a chance like yeah tennessee has only allowed eight points a fourth quarter all season but they also have scored zero fourth quarter points yeah that's a little bit strange you mentioned off the by uh we had a conversation off air before this show started that we're gonna pay less

attention to the trends because they don't really matter. But I think this one does matter. Mike Variable has played nine games with extra rest. His only loss was last year's playoffs to Cincy, who ended up going to the Super Bowl. So he's eight and one with extra rest or a bye. The Colts, like, I get it. They've ended up winning some games. Their record looks kind of nice,

but they're still 31st in offensive DVOA. Jonathan Taylor practiced today, I think, so let's assume he's back. But Tennessee is sneaky on a little three-game winning streak. They lost to the Giants and the Bills, which ages very well. So I think Tennessee is a really good play here, and I don't think a lot of people are going to advocate for it but i feel like it's a i feel like it's a nice chance yeah under a field goal too is a pretty good spot to be in right two and a half a couple things too like

indiana puts the offensive line it's just not been as good this season as expected um they just they can't find left tackle out they've just been just haven't been as good they've been beamed up and pushed around in much different ways than they have in the past i mean matt ryan again like on the road here outside just like yeah well i mean at 400 yards last week it's not happening again this weekend um and again the trend part is interesting because i think there are trends like the baseball stat type trends right like you know we in the Colts on the road at 1 p.m. in the last seven years are 17 and 34 when they play on grass. But Vrabel off a bye or really any extra day of rest is coaching.

Like, that matters, right? Coaching. And we see this with Andy Reid, with Mike Vrabel. Off a bye, man, these guys have their teams humming. They know what to do, which is important. They know what to change. And so I think it's a really good spot here to take a team that Colts, we do not like, a team in Tennessee that we're not fond about.

But in this spot, I think we like them a lot here. And, you know, it's interesting as we go through this, because, like, we have Colts to win the AFC South. This does not help Colts win the AFC South. Yeah. But I think that in the moment obviously we like um the tights here minus two and a half yeah for able uh five and one straight up in against the spread uh against the colts uh all against frank rick nice that um all

right let's put tennessee through to the next round um you're wearing a it looks like you're wearing a giants football shirt today. No giants baseball shirt. Right. Baseball shirt today. Sorry. I assumed that the team you used to play for might've given you a t-shirt. Bad assumption. I do have some of those.

Um, you're a New York giants. You're five and one New York giants. Uh, maybe the story of the year going to Jacksonville. This is like, I I've stared at this line a lot. It doesn't make any sense to me. It's Jags by three. And with all of that, I still might like Jacksonville, but I have no clue where, I don't know what to do with this.

I'm curious what your read is. I mean, everyone's going to be in the Giants in this game, right? And rightfully so. They're feisty. Their offense, I've joked about this, their offense is built around a quarterback they don't trust to throw the ball, around no wide receivers, and a bad interior offensive line. They still make it work. I've joked about this. Their offense is built around a quarterback they don't trust to throw the ball, around no wide receivers, and a bad interior offensive line.

They still make it work. Defensively, man, they just do enough. They're not particularly great at one thing. I mean, their DVOA on defense is 30th. 30th. I don't know. No one can score in a game somehow. jackson was a much better football team i think people were scared off because jacksonville has lost now three in a row um and you know they were like the darlings for a long time we even you know proclaim them

as a darling to me they're two and four sorry they've i forgot they lost week one commanders but they're kind of due for a win here but but do we wager against the hot Giants? Right. This is basically like, do you believe DVOA is a thing or not? Because you mentioned, like, Giants 30th and DVOA Jags 10th. Jags, like, you know, I think their stats are a little bit wonky because they've had a couple of really strange games, especially ones like they had a shutout game in week two against Indy. They were behind.

They had to blow out against the Chargers. They just had a strange sort of wonky season. I don't know if I want to step in front of the Giants' train right now. I don't really trust this Jaguar scene. What have they showed us that says, like, yes, they're going to absolutely dominate. The only thing is, like, Jacksonville's formula, like, when they're up, they're sort of,

the Giants are like this too, but they're more obvious. Like, Jacksonville is a very good team and tough to play, like, when they're winning. They have a good pass rush. They have two good running backs. Like, they have a coach who's very creative in the run game but like when they're down it just seems like lawrence just doesn't really have that gear yet so i don't i don't know i just don't feel like that i don't think

the jags deserve this um and it feels like a trap i don't i just don't know what side they're trying to make you bet yeah i'm with you we stay away We stay away. Fine with me. Let's do it. Speaking of stay-aways, maybe not, though. The Buccaneers and the Panthers are playing. I think the Panthers, they basically were just like, what number can we give so that anyone would take this side, even with the

Bucs sort of in disarray. The Panthers are plus 11 at home right now. Tom Brady compared playing for the Bucs to serving in the military. So things are going great for each of these teams. I feel like if our record was 17-3, I'd be like, sure, let's take the Panthers. Why not? A loss is a loss.

We'll be fine. But at least last weekend we took the Steelers plus 8.5. We could say Mike Tomlin, right? Like, okay, great. Steve Wilks, Sam Darnold, maybe PJ Walker is going to play, going to start. They just traded one of their wide receivers who seemed like a malcontent on the team.

Tampa needs to get right at some point. Maybe it's this weekend. I don't know. I mean, look, if you're wagering this game, the play is the Panthers. If you i don't know um i mean look if you're wagering this game the play is the panthers if you take tampa bay minus 10 and a half you're you're insane um but i i don't want to do it matt i just i just can't it's one of those where if we were just like one of these only picking the sharp side podcasts sure but no no no the panthers stink i'm not again you have to have some sort of like okay mike thomas stealers the culture there's nothing here there's nothing here with with

the panthers they're just freaking awful i agree buddy i mean it's not like i i have a feeling this might keep going up also like i have a feeling by sund keep going up also. Like I have a feeling by Sunday, more people are just going to look at this and be like, all right, like I'll put the bucks in a tease or I'll put the bucks, you know, I'll, I'll just hammer the,

I'll, I'll take the 10 and a half or the 10. Like people will bet more on this and it will probably zag and move a little bit higher. I don't know. I don't, I think bucks in a tease might be the way to do this but it's passed for us i mean the pandas this year have scored 24 16 22 16 15 10

and i think that they scored on defense and there was three last weekend and they scored in defense right yeah they like i mean they were in that game i i had a little sprinkle on them plus 10 and a half against the Rams. Cause I just think the Rams are such frauds, but it's like, there's not, there's going to be no home advantage. And like, no, I don't know. It's a quick trip for Brady. He can quickly get to the wedding on Friday and then fly to wherever he needs to be. So what did you think? Just, just quick aside,

Brady thing like is what he's saying to you, like, does it sound as red flaggy as it sounds to the rest of us? Yes. Or do you think he's just in the season? Okay. So you're saying, like, this is bad. Yeah. So I don't know if we talked about this on Monday or not.

Maybe we did. You know, Gabe was just giddy with joy that Tom Brady was stinking. You had a guy who is so routine-oriented, right, who has bragged about how his life revolves around football, and now you're off Wednesdays. Okay, look, plenty of players are off Wednesdays, especially veteran players. I don't think he's even in the building on Wednesdays, right?

Like, he's with his family on Wednesday. And now he's flying to a wedding on Friday night? Like, really? And then you stayed overnight there? Like, you didn't his family on Wednesday. And now he's flying to a wedding on Friday night? Like, really? And then you stayed overnight there? Like, you didn't just come back to Tampa, the 5-13 to Pittsburgh? You was talking about family. Look, I know we like to mock Tom Brady,

but, you know, family issues are things we have to deal with as players, and not just us, right? I mean, everyone in life has to deal with family issues in work and life. But Tom hasn't had to do that for for 23 years now it's his first time doing this at 45 so yeah i think they're all red flags as far as the success of this team moving forward yeah it's interesting they're dealing with more adversity and and uh than they have in a while and i also think like i think because brady was able to win the power struggle of bruce arians to todd bowles like whatever happened there and bruce arians is out

it's like maybe this is what he wanted somebody he like you know i don't think todd bowles is gonna be like hey man like you gotta come back and fly with us like he's gonna be like fuck off i'm tom brady i don't know if br Arians could, but there's something about Arians. I think Bruce Arians would tell him to like, you're coming here. You better be here. Yeah. So I don't know. I think it is red flag time in Tampa, but that might not show this week. Interesting your take on that.

Next up, speaking of a team in disarray, the Packers are headed to FedEx Field to take on Los Comanderos. The Commanders are getting five and a half at home. Why don't you go first? No, just say it. I know what you want to do. We're doing it, buddy. We're doing it. We're fucking doing it.

All right, here's the thing. This line, how many teams are there where the starting quarterback goes down and the line does not move that's it it's like jimmy jeet and trey lance and maybe like the really terrible quarterbacks like if i don't know if davis mills went down or daniel jones if tyra taylor came in maybe but like i just have been fascinated by no movement of the line. And have you seen one single Washington veteran come out and say, Carson's done a great job. Taylor's going to be good too. No one's backing Wentz except Rivera.

I have a feeling this team is going to be like, thank God, we can finally go out there and win some games. Taylor was seven and eight last year as a starter. He's pretty good. They had a really tough schedule last year. They played some tough teams, and he hung in there. So I have a feeling that their season is going to improve. And Green Bay, I mean, could they beat anybody by 6 right now?

What are we talking about? Something that Green Bay's defense is just awful. It's really bad. Green Bay's 20th in DVOA. It's not good, Jeff. That's like the worst they've been ever, right? I mean, they have their 30th on special teams DVOA. By the way, their estimated wins, like projected wins, is only two. They're three and three with two projected wins.

They're not good right now. And they've played a really soft schedule, it feels like. Let me see. They obviously just lost to the Giants and Jets, which there's honestly not a ton of shame in that. They snuck by Bailey Zappi. They had the one statement win against Chicago.

They beat Tampa and got blown out by the Vikings. They've had a mixed bag of a season. Strangely, their worst metrics are their offensive... Let me make sure this is right because it seems crazy. Their offensive rush to EVOA is 32nd and everybody thinks they have a great offensive line

they have two really strong running backs and they can't run the ball. It just doesn't make sense to me. I think this is a really good spot to take Washington. I love it. Totally in. Yeah, 63% of the money on Washington with about 50-50 bets.

So, Sharps are on this one. We're on the right side. Moving on. Lions and Cowboys, the return of Dak Prescott. So, the Cowboys are laying seven. But I have a feeling we would not take the Cowboys in this. No. No, absolutely not. I'm not take the Cowboys in this. No, absolutely not.

I'm not in the lines either, man. Like they just, I don't know what they are this year. They're not, I mean, they can be exciting at times, but they haven't covered now in what, three, they covered I guess the first three weeks of season. I think this is just to stay away. You know, maybe see maybe you lied, Beth,

at some point, but I don't see, see any need right now. And putting this as one of our five, do you? It's funny. Detroit worst team in, in DVO,

a 32nd in like 32nd or 31st and everything. I just, I mean, my thing here is like, Dak is not going to come back and hum like it's going to take him a little bit of time no I know but the

case for would be Lions are off a bye they finally they get they haven't really had St. Brown for you know the last two games or two and a half games like he got hurt and I think around halftime three games ago, then he was on a pitch count. Their whole offense runs through him and Swift, and they haven't had either of those guys.

Williams was great in relief. I feel like Dallas is going to come out a little bit slow, and Detroit can put up points. Detroit, in one last game, has put up 30 more points than Dallas has all season. They score a lot. The problem is they have the worst defense in the league by far. So I, I don't know. It's,

I don't want to do it, but like, I don't mind Detroit here. Plus seven. If you were like, we got to do it. I, it would not be hard to talk to you about it.

I think, I think that it's one of the maybes. And I think it's one of the plays where, I mean, you're of the plays where, I mean, you're taking the Lions in this spot just because they're off a bye. You know, to your point, Dak Prescott getting his kind of – his finger back into things and getting kind of going. But I just think the Cowboys have a really good defense, and the Lions would just suddenly play a really good defense in the Patriots

and not score at all. I mean, golf's not dynamic enough to make that big of a difference against a good defense. I think this game could easily be like 28-7. The Lions just don't score very much. I mean, we've just seen it with these hand injuries. Like Rodgers had one. He had one against the Giants.

He did not look right against the Jets. Like Russell Wilson last year famously came back a little bit too fast, didn't look right, hasn't looked right since like i just don't think dak is gonna come out extra crisp he hasn't had gallop in the game yet he hasn't had galloping game for a long time like you know all these like second third string guys that cooper rush practiced with all offseason while dak was with the ones like he's not gonna have the chemistry with those guys so the problem is the defense sucks so it's probably a stay away but i am very intrigued by it um all right this one we're not staying away from i won't allow us to the falcons are

at the bangles the bangles are like six points six and a half i mean is this even like what is this go go i mean we have to take atlanta right like this everyone like wants to get off in them but like who are the bangles so atlanta and tucson addy are one spot difference in dvoa 12 and 13 since i'm slightly ahead much better offense as atlanta they're seven they have one of the best russian offenses in the nfl um and you know they're just super creative on offense right they just find ways to put defenses um in really tough looks and make things difficult on them. Yeah, I just, how long can this keep going?

Like, how long can Atlanta continue to play this way, knowing that they're just not as good talent-wise as some of the teams they play? So that's my only concern here. But definitely the Bengals, excuse me, the Falcons are the play here. We've done it. Look, we've made this season about fading the Bengals, and we've mostly done a pretty good job of it when we've had to do it.

And they're off a big win in New Orleans. Everyone's feeling good. Joe Burrow's starting to play better. And then here comes Grady Jarrett in that Falcons defense to mess things up for Burrow, and Mariota's just run that option, and they're handing the ball off, and they're making plays. So six and a half is a lot. You're exactly right.

It's too much. Everyone's saying, oh, look, the Bengals, they're back. Sure, Jamar Chase had a great game last week. But we already talked about how banged up the Saints were. The Bengals this year have been very fortunate. The quarterbacks that they've beaten so far, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco. Now, Marcus Mariota is not 2008 Tom Brady by any means, but their wins are not that impressive. They've been close in some of these games, like the Ravens game and the Pittsburgh game at the beginning of the year was crazy, but that was another bad quarterback.

there was crazy but that was another bad quarterback so i just i look i think people view this as like a 50 50 thing where it's like okay they've covered six times in a row like what are the odds like you don't you know if you get six 16s in a row like you're gonna bust at some point on the blackjack table right like but it's not like that it's all artificial like it's nonsense it's this is one game at a time like the falcons cover every week and the bangles are overrated this is a big number i i just feel like you got to take the falcons here i'm in you technically earn the week like i'm i'm in for this let's do it perfect um all right a team that's killed us two teams that have killed us but one especially the ravens are hosting the browns uh the ravens are laying six or maybe six and a half, depending on which side we like here.

I don't have a feel for this one. I'm curious if you do. No, I don't. The Ravens have just been bad. Killed us. Well, yeah. Obviously, we didn't bet them last weekend. I think I saw that out of the three lost teams this year,

how many... Of course, my desktop is – Twitter's account is not going to work for all the likes I have on here for saving everything for the show. That for the three lost teams, they had how many minutes they've been behind this season? Or is it really how many seconds? But the Ravens are 3-3 and have only been behind for 120 seconds all season. Wow.

That's crazy, right? But they have had an inability this season to finish games, Matt, like really bad. And Brissette's going to throw that one bad interception this game, but they're going to run the football and do enough. And I think the Ravens have shown an inability to close out games this year. I would stay away from them in this game. Yeah,

me too. It's too high. I will say one thing about the Browns. I don't think people realize is how bad their run D has been among the worst two or three. But the problem is the Ravens aren't the running team that everyone thinks they are possible. The Dobbins is going to miss this game, and it's going to be the Kenyon Drake show who had a nice week last week.

But I don't know, man. Baltimore at home, they've had a tough time. It's a big line. I don't trust them. We definitely don't like Bursette on the road. So I think that's a stay away. How many do we have? We have three that we like right now.

Tennessee, Washington, and Atlanta. Tennessee. There's a couple more I like. I think we're in a good spot so far. away um how many do we have we have three that we like right now tennessee washington and atlanta let's see there's a couple more like so i think we're in a good spot so far yeah okay um all right moving on to texans raiders both teams off a buy uh raiders laying seven their last time we saw them was that brutal loss to kc uh do you faith faith in Derek Carr and the gang here? Absolutely not. The play here is Houston, right? Plus seven? Yeah, for sure.

It has to be. I mean, we've been, you know, Houston has not been great this year, and they definitely not cover as much as we have liked them to cover. We've been on them all season long, but they're just coming off their best game of the year, right? I guess really second best game of the year. Their defense is not half bad.

You know, offensively, their defense is 22nd, 26th in DVLA, but they really don't allow a lot of points, right? 20, 16, 23, 34 output to the Chargers, and six last weekend to Jacksonville. One of the other things, why are the Raiders favored by seven over anybody? Yeah. The Raiders stink they're not any good technically a worst record yeah i i like it i mean the texans we've we've

had them a few times they they they tend to come back and keep games close the raiders have a pretty weird coaching uh make pretty weird coaching decisions regularly i'm i'm cool with this it's not i don't have a ton to say about it, but it's mainly just playing the number and fading a team that feels a little overrated. And the Raiders right now are getting a lot of public money too. So it's one of those where I just feel like the number's really good, even though we might not have a lot to say here.

Yeah. I put that in the maybe so far. It's a strong maybe. There's not many games left this week. There's not. As the buys start to kick in. Yeah, all the good teams are on buys. Yeah.

I'm going to test out a theory for the rest of the season. Okay. I feel like the public loves a team that lost a close game to a good team. Oh, yeah. So, like, Bills are a classic example of that. That's ended up working. But, like, they lose to KC last year, and everyone's like, but they're going to win the next one. And i feel like that's what's happening with the raiders

here is everyone saw that game and they're like the raiders like they're kind of good right like no they had a good week kc is like kc has the target on their back every week and they lost like i don't know houston might catch him by surprise i i'm gonna test that theory out um what do you think of that good idea all right yeah i would love to see that you test that out charter let's test it out um all right the funniest game of all time the jets are at denver this was a seven and a half point line a week ago and now it's a pick them that's terrible let's ride i mean mean, Russell Wilson right now is dude. How about, how about the tweet yesterday from Ian Rapport about his injury?

And he said, after an MRI, Russell Wilson's case or day to day source said, quote, it's a real injury and he's in real pain. End quote. He's such a cringy individual. They had to tell everyone it's an actual injury because people were probably like yeah that's not yeah like that's not a thing that you know and so

i just think broncos are really really bad and they're just kind of a shit show russ was almost three of 11 in the second half of NFL football game last weekend. With overtime, right? Yeah. He's not seeing any pressures. Like he, I put a video out. He's seen nothing.

It's like, he's blind out there. He's blind out there. Um, the Jets defense, man, they get, they get after it.

They punish opponents. Um, they're creative. The 12th and DVO way. The one thing though, is that Denver is really good on defense. They're second in DVOA. Yeah.

And Zach Wilson is – let's put it this way. The Jets' offense is very one-dimensional. Zach Wilson, I think, was like 10 of 18, and his air yards per attempt were like 3.5 last weekend. You know, they were Brees Hall, were on the football, Michael Thomas, you know, they're Brees Hall, run the football, Michael Thomas, you know, whatnot. I just, I don't know if that's enough on the road for this line movement. Like, if this is seven, great.

I'm all in. One and a half. Sorry, it's Michael Carter. I think I said Michael Thomas. Michael Carter, running back for the Jets. Okay. I'm not as excited about this number here. I'm not either.

I also feel like the Jets are a very young team who everyone loves. Everyone hates the Broncos. It's the highest and the lowest, and it's a very young team going on the road where they are you know probably reading a few articles about how great they are all week so i feel like this is probably a layoff because i'm definitely not taking the broncos but this just feels a little bit like let's let's all calm down it's still the jets like it's still zach wilson he's not blowing the doors off anybody let's just let's see them take care of business here i just like the russell wilson thing man

like it's just i know i talk about it a lot, but it's like, it's so odd. I mean, you had a guy for so many years. I think no one accused of Russell Wilson of being like, you know, the pain man on the field, right? Where you're audible and you make all these changes. But I also thought he was just better. Like, it's seeing pressures. He's just not seeing stuff.

His eyes are not in the right place. He's not throwing the ball to the right person. To me, this is a very under-ish game. Just take the under and be happy with it. But yeah, I'm very... Everyone physically drops off at some point. I'm fine with Russell Wilson physically dropping off. I'm not sure he has

exactly, but the mental stuff to me is wild. I never thought we'd get to a point where Russell Wilson just mentally, you're like, I don't know if I trust him on the field yeah and it's crazy too because like their defense you mentioned it like they're super bowl caliber like they've had a other than the raiders game they felt every opponent's under 20 um including the seahawks which now like looks they're really impressive yeah um you know the colts and they've two overtime losses in a row by both by three it's

like their defense is keeping them in games despite the offense so I don't know it's right this is just it's just doesn't feel right to me but all right by the way Brees Hall is now plus 280 for offense rookie of the year I'm sure we got him a better

plus 700 plus 800 yeah let's go. Alright, interesting game here. The Seahawks are at the Chargers 5.5, 6.5 as the line for the Chargers at home. Funny thing that Justin Herbert didn't get a touchdown

last week, even though the DraftKings boosted it from minus 800 to plus 100. That was pretty funny. So yeah. Are those pass attempts with no pass touchdown in NFL history? Was it 57 or something like that? I don't understand it. Do you know Smith is a dog here, or do we

like Herbert to bounce back? I mean, I think that the play would be Seattle here, but not my favorite of the week. I just, I used to like Brandon Staley a lot, and I just don't. Like, he just like, I feel like he's wasting a lot of talent on this team.

It's not even like for the fourth down decisions. They're just like poorly coached. They're not good at clock management. Their offense is so stagnant and boring. It takes no advantage of Justin Herbert's skills. He's supposed to be a defensive guy, and you allow the Broncos to have wide-open guys the entire game?

Like, come on, buddy. This is your job. You're a defensive coach. So I would definitely lean Seattle here, but I feel like they're also just like one geno smith bad game away from being bad again and it might be this weekend it might not be um but i i five and a half two i'm out on this one what do you think yeah i'm with you i'm a little tempted to to i feel like by sunday i'll have talked myself into the Chargers. Seahawks are getting all of the money, all of the bets, and the line is dropping, which is usually a bad sign if you're a Seattle backer.

The fact that Keenan Allen hasn't been out there, like Austin Eckler has been terrific, but there is a difference when the offense is so worried about one receiver. And that guy gets like 10, 12, 15 targets a game sometimes when he's in there. And I think if he comes back, like the Chargers are going to feel a little bit more like the Chargers. They've had to deal with the offensive line, but I think the Keenan Allen thing is really big.

If he comes back, that could be pretty interesting, but as it stands now, we don't know what his deal is. Seattle's just frisky, but I don't know. I don't like the Chargers enough yet. I would stay away. Yeah. All right. Three games left. The Chiefs at the Niners is the last Sunday game. The Chiefs are road favorites coming off that loss.

They're laying two and a half or three. Everybody loves the Chiefs this week. Do we like them in a rebound spot? Well, I don't think you take the Chiefs here because of the Chiefs. I feel like you take them because the Niners are very beat up right now and very injured. You look at their defense,

they hope to have guys back. We don't know yet. It's Wednesday. They had seven starters out on defense. They're just beat up. I will leave Kansas City here, but we've been burned two weeks in a row in Kansas City, right? We had him against the Raiders. We had him last weekend.

I can see the Chiefs winning this game by 10 to 17 points, but it's not one of my five favorite of the week. Hank is trying to push this idea that Odell's coming to Kansas City because Travis Kelsey wouldn't deny it. Travis Kelsey, by the way, his podcast is fantastic with him and his brother. I have a brother. I've been begging my brother to do a podcast with me. I kind of wish he would do it with

me. We would be able to have our great brother podcast together. No offense to you, Matt or Gabe or anyone else. By the way, special guest next week. Another offensive lineman. Not Mitchell Schwartz. He'll be on. It'll be a lot of fun. Actually, Tuesday. So their Chiefs restructured Travis Kelsey's deal to free up some money

because they had no money. They had like $100,000 in the cap. You got to sign players when guys are hurt. They need money. They're not getting Odell. Sorry, Chiefs fans. You're not getting anyone new. I think it's a stay away from me.

If I had to pick a game, it would be Chiefs minus three, but don't feel great about it. I think if the Niners end up with seven defensive starters out again and Trent Williams not in, and maybe you go Chiefs later in the week, it probably ends up getting above three, though, at that point. If the injury news comes out, it's worse. So, if you like him, grab him now, but I'm not like him.

I've gone back and forth on this, and I kind of assumed that you would probably talk me into the Chiefs. The Chiefs, I mean, we don't want to lean too much on trends, but Mahomes' record as a short favorite, I want to pull it up because it's so overwhelming. I believe he is 13-2-1 against the spread, anything below three and a half. So he's really good in these sort of close games. The 49ers, I mean, I don't think that we've actually sort of like evaluated them correctly

all season. Like this is a team, obviously with Trey Lanson, lost to the Bears. They beat Seattle. Okay. They put up 10 against Denver. They beat up the Rams. They beat up the Panthers. Like they're not, they haven't like gone against somebody who's this level yet.

They got smoked by the Falcons last week. They had that weird end of game drive. Their schedule's about to get a little tougher they got the chiefs they got the rams they got the chargers they got the cardinals and the saints like that's a little bit more meaty than their first first couple of games so i think we're gonna find out a lot about them i don't hate the chiefs in a rebound spot here but it's just not our kind of play like san francisco good team better in dva at home um i don't know if if we're pressed i wouldn't mind kc minus two and a half but i don't know something about it doesn't sit right

yeah i'm good skipping this or at least putting the maybes for now yeah i don't know i don't know if we're gonna find any two of these last two games so we'll see yeah steelers at dolphins is the sunday night game yeah that's tough dolphins laying seven do we know who the quarterback of the dolphins is we don't that's the thing we don't know the quarterback for the dolphins interesting by the way uh hank put this in the chat i mean in the in the in the doc tomlin is 9 and 17 against the spread at home excuse me at night since 2017. In the last 30 years, Steelers are 0-7 straight up in night games as underdogs of the TD or more.

It's probably just seven games against the Patriots. Yeah. There's nothing for here. Nothing for me, man, in this game. Just absolutely nothing. I think, if anything, you take the Dolphins. I think Pittsburgh, they had their Super Bowl win last weekend,

and they come just flying back down to earth this week. Yeah, probably Trubisky, right? This is just a pass. Yeah, just a pop-up back-point quarterback. Yeah. It's just, I think they're going to get it smashed. I think, yes. Yeah, I don't know.

I guess I agree. I guess I agree. I guess I'd take Miami, but that's definitely not one of our five. Doubt this is one of our five, but probably worth checking. The Patriots are hosting the Bears 7.5 or 8. I don't know how the Bears are going to score a point in this game, quite frankly. So I feel like we probably missed the number on this, but the play would be new England,

right? Absolutely. It would be new England. Pinterest defense is pretty good. Like, I feel like they're kind of like back to what they used to be. Yeah. I mean,

they can win this game, like 13 to three and they cover the spread, right? Like, I don't know if I feel great about new England laying that many points with Blake Zappi. Bailey Zappi, I should say, not Blake Zappi. But they're absolutely the play here. I don't care if it's a public play or not.

The Bears stink. They're bad. And they're on the road as a young quarterback in fields. I would lay off of it, but it would be New England for me. Yeah. Are you buying this as a survivor play this week? I don't feel like there's any way that the Bears win this game straight up. Yeah, I would do – yeah, survivor's a good play here for sure.

Teaser. Oh, yeah. Everyone's got the Patriots in a teaser. That feels like the one game. I mean, there's a couple teasers that I think make a lot of sense this week. And that'll be one of them. So we've gone through the slate. We've got four.

We like, we like Tennessee laying two and a half against the Colts. We like Washington laying, are we getting five and a half or six? What's it right now? Let me see the change. We can six. Let me see.

Maybe I'm just manifesting it. Nope. Five and a half or six? What's it right now? Let me see. The change we get in six. Let me see. Maybe I'm just manifesting it. No, five and a half. All right. Washington plus five and a half. Atlanta plus six and a half. That's awesome. And Houston plus seven. Yep.

So the other maybes we had were the Thursday night game. Yep. Arizona laying two against the Saints. Kansas City on the road is two and a half win favorites against the Niners. Am I missing any of the others? Detroit, I think. But here's the deal. So are we betting on Cliff Kingsbury or Andy Reid?

What about Jared Goff and Dan Campbell? Absolutely not doing that. All right. Troy's out. So are the Chiefs going to lose this game? Are they going to win this game by one or two points, really? The Chiefs? Man.

I feel like we've said this the last two weeks and we've lost. I know. This is what always happens. We're at the end of it. We're like, should we just take the Chiefs? We take them every week. They have not been kind against the spread this year. Only two and four.

I know. We're 0-2 wager on them. Or do you just want to take Arizona? I mean, Arizona. I think Arizona's a good play. But I just. I would be. I would be.

Oh, man. It's like the second I say I would be in. Oh, man. It's like the second I say I would be in on Arizona, I'm like, what am I actually betting on? I'm betting on Kyler Murray on a short week. Maybe he's better, actually, because there's less prep. The Saints are just tough. I don't see them winning that game, but I could see them keeping it close. But it's only two.

What's your gut tell you? You came in pretty convinced on the Cardinals, I feel like. Yeah, or we just take New England and just... Nah, let's not lay eight with Bailey Zappi. God, I think Cardinals, dude. If we lose on Thursday Night Football, but on the Cardinals,

I'm never going to forgive myself. But if it was a Sunday game, we got to like, not be afraid to take a Thursday game. We're wanting to know, take a Thursday games. If it was a Sunday game, I think it'd be all over Arizona. Right. I think we should take it. You came in like very hot on it.

Usually. Are you with me on that one? Yeah, I'm with you. I'm scared of it, but I'm with you. I've agreed with everything you said about it. And I think the saints, like, I mean, Arizona's the better team. Like, I don't know. I think getting Hopkins back is huge.

Oh, it's totally huge. But, man, whew. It's only two. They've lost eight in a row at home. Have they really? Yeah. Yeesh. They're one in seven against the spread at home and lost eight games.

Yeah, Kingsbury, for whatever reason, they're worse at home. They're worse at home and they're worse when he's a favorite. So let's take the favorite Cardinals at home. On a short week. Kyler Murray 0-3 on Thursdays in his career. Oh, geez. Well, I mean, we had a conversation right before the show about how trends don't matter i know this is really tempting it's more about the baseball trends and not like i think coaching trends do sort of matter in this

spot um what about okay so arizona with with Hopkins back against the Saints team that's competent but isn't blowing anybody away with Dalton, we assume still, right? Then, or do we want to take Kansas City? There are big cases. They're coming off of a loss. Two really close games on national television, or national-ish with the Bills last week.

It's sort of a buy low spot on KC. Maybe we just do that. I mean, I feel better with that than anything else. Then let's do it. Let's buy low on Kansas City. Sure. This is just a Kansas City podcast. We bet them every week. I mean, the other... No, we bet only twice this year. We're 0-2 the last two weeks.

We did not do it the first couple of weeks. Look, man, you produce two podcasts with guys just automatically take hand city every week so i mean nick's done it every week right i'd imagine yeah well the jeff's referring to nick right uh check out his show what's right with nick right um nick loves the chiefs and loves the jaguars and uh you know that hasn't been very kind to him this season but his monologue on monday on his show was incredibly funny i was like he's apologizing really he's a very very good at his job and he

got about two minutes in it was like wait i wrote this last year this letter i wrote i happen to agree with him it's like the bills and we were saying that last week yeah it's like that was a much more meaningful game for the bills than it was for uh the chiefs just didn't play either yeah they did they played poorly but they still had a chance the arrowhead invitational just unbelievably funny it's very funny all right so we have our five uh we got our five uh titans i i our first four are great yeah titans football team atlanta houston kansas city do at home home away away away whatever i don't care about that um for sure what i'm gonna do is like usual i'm gonna text you sunday morning be like who do we have who do we have because i'm not at my computer we're everything down hank always erases it by the time we do our show on

sunday before sunday kicks off he's already he's time we do our show on Sunday or before Sunday kicks off. He's so ahead of our show on Monday, Matt. He's ready to go. He's ready to go. Well, then what's the deal with this show? Nothing's done by the time we record. He's got to get back to work. It's because Gabe's the boss.

He's got to stop texting me about random memes I don't know about. Who's that guy, Hezbollah? What's his name? I have no idea who that is. I don't know about. Who's that guy, Hezbollah? What's his name? I have no idea who that is. I don't know who that is, Matt. I love the colliding of Jeff and Hezbollah.

That's a good diagram I need to live in. Yeah, I know who Hezbollah is for sure. Am I supposed to know who that is, though? I don't think so. I think now that you've seen what he's like, he's an interesting character. I haven't even searched him yet now that you've seen like what he's like he's an interesting character i haven't even searched him yet all i've seen is that photo ink sent yeah it's worth like the five minutes of like what's the deal with this guy and then you'll be like oh all right

then every time you see like one of those stupid memes with him you'll be like i get it um he's like a good little internet like he's like a he's a piece of arcana on the internet okay okay before we get to uh the end of the show my pack 12 wagers um punch shack in the face i don't like he's bulleted yeah he's yeah he's like uh he trains in mma so like he gets into all these like funny little scraps like four feet tall i don't I don't totally know his story, so I don't want to freestyle it, but he's worth checking out. Okay, I'll check out Hezbollah on the internet. I've got so much free time.

Hey, can we just cut all of them? No, this is all staying in. Alright, Cal plus seven and a half. They host Washington. They'll bounce back. It's really the only Pac-12 wager I love this week, guys. Only one so far.

I would take UCLA plus six and a half at Oregon this weekend. It's a better wager. I think Oregon wins, but that's a lot of points for, I think, a very close football game. And you have a little FOMO. I wish I could go to that game. And then the other Pac-12 games, only four this weekend. Not a lot I like here.

So that's it. Just Stanford. Excuse me. Just Cal't, not a lot I like here. So, that's it. Just Stanford, excuse me, just Cal plus seven and a half hosting Washington. All right, everyone. We'll talk to you next week.

Have a great couple of days. We have a special guest on Tuesday and hope you win your wagers this weekend. Take care, everybody. I'm Nicky. The Heads Bulletin stays.