Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 8

Episode Date: October 27, 2022

Geoff is back with Matt to give you his best bets for week 8 of the NFL season. It has been a thoroughly average year for the boys, so they're looking for a big week to push them well over .500. Tune in to see who they're trusting to get it done. As always, be sure to leave a comment or rating to show what you thought, and follow the pod to get. notified when new episodes drop twice a week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's Thursday October 27th I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Forther Jeff Schwartz of Smart you powered by the Varsity Podcast Network we are back for our wagering preview episode for the weekend of the NFL action I'll include in some Pac-12 plays on the back end starting to heat up there give him an overall record about 70% at the end of the show for those of you stick around long enough if you do please rate, review, subscribe, always appreciate getting feedback from you guys.

Hope you enjoyed the Andrew with interview. We put out earlier this week, a little different than usual. We can do more interviews. If you tell me you want more interviews, we'll do more interviews. I can get it done. A lot of fun talking to Andrew.

Thank you for joining Matthew. We are 17, 17 and one, which might not sound great. However, last year, this time we were like 10 and 29. So we're better through seven weeks than we have ever been, which I like. Yeah. We are, we're getting, we're in a good spot. I'll take 500 through week seven. It's been a very interesting year. i just want to briefly apologize to the listeners because you're going from andrew whitworth jeff you were just on me to kime show

yes and now you've got me so it's a little bit of a drop but i'm gonna do my best to pull my weight here um how was andrew was it uh it was fantastic what was your sort of top highlight of that interview um i mean just listening to him talk about, you know, the offensive line development from his point of view, you know, I think the fun part about it is that, you know, he was a stud, right? Like he was a high draft pick, played as a rookie, played so many years. I was not, I was seventh round draft pick. You know, he's won like two high school championships,

college championship, NFL. I didn't win anything in my career. And, you know, we kind he's won like two high school championships, college NFL. I didn't win anything in my career. And, you know, we kind of went about things differently, but also sort of have the same mindset to playing football. So it was nice to hear. And did you get a little old man-ish?

Like we were like back in our day, we used to hit a little bit more, but it was a lot of fun to talk to Andrew. I once worked a pro bowl. And at that event, you spend a lot of time in the media at the players hotel um andrew was in the pro bowl that year so it's probably like 2012 maybe um and i just remember in the pool he was like i don't i don't know what happened but he had like a magnet with every like players kid where they would just come in the pool and he would just

like lift them and throw them and there was like a line of kids who were just like playing with andrew and he was just i mean i know he has a bunch of kids himself but it was just like every kid there just gravitated to him and he would just pick him up and heave him and uh i was like this is probably going to be harder for you than the pro bowl that he was like really lifting these kids for sure yeah he's a good dude man he's probably won you know man of the year award and uh fan favorite in los angeles so it was it was really we're really happy to have him on yeah that's awesome um all right so we should uh get into week eight here yeah yeah let's win some wagers let's do it let's do it this is a really interesting week um starting off with the

thursday game finally a game worthy of al michaels we've got baltimore going to tampa this line has moved a ton um it's right now it's baltimore laying one point in tampa pretty shocking development with what happened with the bucks last week i i'm curious if we think that that's you know just one bad game or if we want to buy low here um oh i think that tampa bay is not very good um they've already ruled out russell gage carlton davis antoine winfield sean murphy bunting cameron brate and luke uh i think it's uh gadecki um so they uh that's their one of their wide receivers three starting secondary pieces the starting tight end and their left guard um who's also filling in for like the three other left guards that got hurt this year

um julio jones game time decision they're just not good um and their offense dude they can't run the ball but they continue to try to run the football they're not doing play action pass this year you know it's easy to like blame tom Tom Brady's off the field situations for this. I'm not sure that's the case. I mean, he looks generally okay. I mean, he didn't drop that touchdown pass. I'm like, Evans bobbled eight times before it hit the ground, but there's something just not right in Tampa Bay.

I mean, part of it is the coaching is not as good, right? I mean, Bruce Aarons maybe held that thing together more than he had credit for. And it's a short week now on a team that we keep saying, like, this is their get-right game. And just like with Green Bay, I don't know if they have any of those this year. Like, Sterling can be this, but in a short week against a Baltimore team that, again, like Baltimore is – they are a frustrating team to wager on, man. They just almost like a no wager right now.

They just do not end games very strong, which is shocking for a team that likes to run the ball as much as the Ravens do. I would stay away from this one. If anything, I would lean Ravens very short here. But do you have a thought on this one? I think this is probably a no bet. If I had to bet it, I would say,

I don't know how you could not take Tampa here. Really? Yeah. And not because of anything that's happened on the field. I mean, it's basically just like, I mean, one trend that I know we don't love trends anymore. We've gotten wise to them, but Tom Brady and his career has had 25 games

after not covering it by 14 or more points so basically like a gate 25 times after he's fallen on his face in his career this is courtesy of the action network um he's 22 and three against the spread the next game winning and covering the last 13 so this has happened before and like there was a game there have been saints games with the bucks where they've sort of fallen out flat on their face um he's he's ridden the wave before i know that it's gonna be like everyone's just sort of gonna say like hey the bucks are dead the ravens are good but like i just I don't know man I feel like I trust the Bucks to bounce back more than I trust the Ravens to take care of business like the Ravens have been so up and

down this season you know we mentioned the Bucks injuries but we didn't mention Mark Andrews is not practicing uh today he might you know we assume he'll probably come back Rashad Bavens coming back are you sure I mean he's he probably won't play. Is he going to play tomorrow? I don't know. I mean, yeah, that's right. It's tomorrow or today by the time listeners hear this. So if they don't have Andrews, that offense, they don't have Dobbins, obviously.

Gus Edwards got a ton of carries last week, looked fine. But the Bucs injuries are in the secondary. Like, that's not a huge deal given what they're going against. I don't know, man. Mark Andrews last week week by the way i lost my fantasy league by three tenths of a point last weekend mark andrews had no catches last weekend one catch one catch and i win no catches it's tough um it's uh i feel like it's probably less frustrating to play real football because you have actual control of the outcome than fantasy football. The Ravens' last four games have all been one possession finishes.

They've all gone one way or the other. They can't close games. I feel like unless they come out and absolutely smoke the Bucs in the first half, the Bucs are pretty much a lock to win this one. But I don't know. I stared at this number forever and you just think how do you not take Tom Brady as a home dog off of an embarrassing loss? How do you not do it? And the answer is what you saw with your eyes. It's probably a pass.

It's going to be an interesting game really we're gonna learn a lot about both of these teams um maybe well actually this is kind of an interesting game we're going back to london uh nathaniel hackett is taking his show on the road to play the jaguars i'm sorry to everyone in the uk who uh consistently gets our worst coaches and teams sent over there. The line is Jacksonville favored by two. Man, does Nathaniel Hackett make the flight home, do we think? So I like Jacksonville minus two here. They're one of those teams, like, oh, numbers are good,

but they just don't win games. And at some point that typically does turn around, and maybe it's this weekend. More than anything else, man, i just can't stand russell wilson and as much as possible i want to wager against him so they're flying to london okay and the report came out today that russell wilson in the eight-hour flight was doing high knees in the airplane and working on the airplane. Now, I understand getting treatment on the airplane, okay? Like I once played a game with a bad back.

Well, not once, many times, but one really bad time where I hurt my back in Carolina. We were at Cleveland on a Sunday. I used to have this hip issue where my kind of hips would get out of line. I had a couple surgeries not for that purpose, but it fixed that issue. And my back would get so tight that I couldn't even stand up. It was that bad. Okay.

So we played this game Sunday. My hips go out of line by Monday morning. I can't even stand. Literally legit. I had to like lay on the floor in the meeting room to watch film. I spent all week with our massage therapist. We fly to Seattle Friday morning. And on the flight, I was doing like rehab. I spent all week with our massage therapist. We fly to Seattle Friday morning.

And on the flight, I was doing like rehab. I was literally laying on the floor in the back galley with a pillow under my knees to elevate my legs while the flight attendants were walking around me doing their job. And every so often I would get like treatment on my back, just keep it loose. So I understand the purpose of that. but guess what matt i didn't tell the panthers beat reporter i was doing that shit i didn't have to tell people that hey man look at me i'm working really hard to play it's our job to get our bodies ready to play like congrats russell wilson on your high knees on the airplane to get your hamstring this is your job your job is to do everything possible to make sure you can play each week like nobody

cares why do you have to tell us that you did this and this is my thing about this i said this earlier on twitter actually i told you to find me i said like look no one cares about your workouts as an nfl player nba player when you stink, when you're terrible. No one cares because the idea is like the public perception of you being a hard-o when you're losing makes it seem like you're doing all this shit for no reason. And it doesn't work. Like, I just can't stand this guy, man. And maybe it's unfair.

I just don't give a shit. Like, the Broncos aren't very good, Matt. You have a quarterback that may or may not play who Russell Wilson's just not seeing anything. Like, he's not seeing what's in front of him on the field because he's a freaking robot. And when things don't go exactly as planned, he doesn't know what to do. He goes haywire.

Jacksonville's due for a win, I think. Like, they're just due for one. Now, again, they just shoot themselves in the foot. Saw the fumble last weekend. But I'm very happy taking Jacksonville here. Their DVOA, by the way, is ninth.

Their estimated wins is 3.6. They have two. Denver, by the way, DVOA is 22nd. They're really good on defense. But I just don't like anything but the Jacksonville Jaguars here. I hear you. I think you're probably right.

I mean, one of the things that won't show up here, first of all, this line has moved down a lot. It started, the Broncos were huge favorites. That's changed, obviously, with the Russell Wilson status and just the way the Broncos have played. I mean. If this number, they were not seven-point favorites. This is a preseason number, right?

This is not like a look-ahead line. They weren't seven-point favorites a week ago in this game. look ahead line they weren't seven point favorites a week ago in this game yeah they probably weren't i'm not sure when that's from actually that's they call it the open on the site i'm looking at but i'm not exactly sure but regardless um the line has shifted throughout i think that the advantage here i we think that nathaniel hackett is like an outlierly bad coach like we've seen some really bad coaches over the last couple of years, but he seems to be like on the far end of sort of that spectrum. I think that going overseas, shifting into the time zone,

going against a coach at Peterson who's done it before, and a Jaguars team that plays overseas every year is actually a pretty significant disadvantage. Obviously, there was another London game this year, and Dable won that game as a first-year head coach, but Dable's Dable might be coach of the year. But I feel like Jacksonville gets a little advantage here that you can't exactly quantify. And you're right. They are due for a win. They're one of the best teams in terms of dvoa this isn't going to last where they keep you know crapping themselves at the end of the game and giving it away so i'm okay with it i think and i i think it will effectively feel like a home game

for them because they're more familiar and they have fans over there now so i i think that this could be the like does nathaniel hackett get fired if they lose this and by the way they're already talking about like if they lose do we trade bradley chubb do we trade jerry judy do we trade kj hamler like those kind of things don't come out usually like the week before a big win so i those are all sort of like off the field narrative things but i do think they play into this and uh this could be an implosion game for Denver. Agreed. It's a maybe for me right now, but not a firm yes. Because that is the case.

It's like the London games, they're always weird. I feel like we're always on the wrong side of them. We never wager on them. We just try to stay away from them. But favorites tend to win those, other than earlier this year. Speaking of favorites, one of the biggest of the week is Philadelphia against Pittsburgh, the first 1 o'clock game here.

Pittsburgh, another – man, what a brutal schedule they've had. Big dogs here. I don't think I would be interested in Pittsburgh in this one. Do you have a feel for this? No, actually, I think the Eagles probably blow them out. Yeah. The 10 points is a lot. It's a public-ish play, I'd imagine.

No one's betting the Steelers this weekend. Eagles off the bye. Eagles off a bye. Pittsburgh kind of had their game against Tampa Bay, which, again, Tampa Bay doesn't appear as good as they have in the past, right? So maybe that win isn't as impressive. But Eagles should blow them out. The problem with this game to me, wagering on, is that

Eagles are good in the second half of a game, and it just really worries me about backdoor covers. That's the only problem I worry about this one. Yeah, I guess. I don't like laying 10 points against a team that's well-coached. This is probably a pass for me, but I do think if I had to pick it, I'd pick

Philly. I would as well. Again, they have to fix that second half offense. I'm curious what they do in the bye week for that. I mean, it's pretty clear what's happening is that they just have a script. It goes really well to start, and then it's kind of like, well, what do we do now? And that's the part that they have problems with. Yeah, and last year the Eagles closed the the season brilliantly they sort of struggled at the

at the beginning and then they figured it out and changed sort of into a more run-heavy script so they could end up really benefiting after this we'll see um all right patriots and jets oh man what a what a silly game uh you did not get a chance to talk about the patriots quarterback situation i it feels i can't believe how poorly bill belichick sort of handled the messaging on this it feels a little nathaniel hackett ish like it just like oh it you know we had a plan to go with two quarterbacks and oh like maybe they pulled him because the throw hit the sky cam or whatever the hell happened like i can't believe this is the Patriots. It's so strange.

I just saw this tweet. Breaking news for week eight from Phil Yates. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones took about 90% of the first team reps in practice today and will start for the team on Sunday against the Jets. Okay. Right decision. Is it? I mean, it is.

You didn't even give him a chance. He got two drives after being hurt for like a month, and you pulled him. But at least they decided to do something about this. This two-quarterback system is freaking stupid. It should not be done. Man, this was tough because the public's going to be all over the Jets, right? I can't imagine.

But the Jets now lost their best offensive player in Brees Hall, right? And one of their offensive linemen. But the Jets now lost their best offensive player in Brees Hall, right? And one of their offensive linemen. And they're just like, they're not going to be as good on offense. Defensively, they are fantastic. I get that. But offensively, what are they going to do in this game? How are they going to score on the Patriots,

who have been pretty good outside of the Bears and the Ravens game when you have mobile running quarterbacks? Excuse me, Zach Wilson's mobile, but he can't really throw on the run very well. outside of the Bears and the Ravens game when you have mobile running quarterbacks. Zach Wilson's mobile, but he can't really throw in the run very well. He's not playing well right now. I'd be okay with taking the Patriots here, but not my favorite, put it like that. Yeah.

I mean, this is an interesting one, right? Because the Pats own the Jets. The last time the Jets beat the Pats was 2015, which is absolutely insane, 12 straight. So this could be the Belichick off of an embarrassing national televised game buying low on the Patriots. Or this could be like the Jets have arrived statement game you know if anybody should if it shouldn't be hard to convince you that you can survive without your top running back um this is the biggest running back hater I've ever met I think that there's actually like kind

of a good case to be made here for the Jets but their offensive line beat up though like he makes a big difference now with more guys hurt it just makes it tougher, in my opinion. It does. I don't know. It's funny, actually. The majority of the bets and the money are on the Patriots. So I actually feel like they're sort of the public play. Oh, well, let's stay away from that.

So, yeah, I feel like this is a pass, especially with the quarterback situation. I just don't know how this one's going to go. It feels bit like the uh thursday night game we'll skip it we're good all right well we don't have any firm uh yeses yet but maybe this will be one uh carolina the high flying carolina panthers are going to atlanta to play the falcons the falcons are laying four or four and a half uh depending on the book are we getting back on the Falcons train? I am. I don't know. Are you in the Falcons train here? Yeah, 100%.

Yeah, like Hank has a stat in here that kind of sums up what I'm about to say. But like this is a, to me, this is just an aberration win. Like you were okay at 14 first downs all game. Like you weren't great against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay just kind of stunk. It almost felt like the Ewing theory McCaffrey game, right?

The first game of McCaffrey, everyone just goes a little bit harder on offense. Make up the difference. You're at home. No one was in the stadium. Now you're going on the road. People can study that defense a little bit. But how about this? Teams coming off and upset is a double-digit

underdog, which the Panthers were last weekend, are 29-36-3 against the spread when this is the underdog in their next game. This is like a... The fairytale doesn't last very often in this situation. The Falcons got beat up

in the pass game by the Bengals. Well, guess what? The Panthers don't have Jamar Chase and Boyd and Higgins and Hayden Hurst and Joe Burrow. That's not what their team is. And to me, the Falcons are a great play here. And we get a better number. The number was like six.

And now it's at their favorite by four. So I'm all in on Falcons minus the four here. Yeah, I'm with you. The Falcons, obviously, their big weakness is their defense. They are about dead last in defensive DVOA. But the Panthers are 30th in offensive DVOA without Christian McCaffrey now. So probably not the most fun game to watch. I agree.

I just think the Falcons, their style of play, if they come out hot and just sort of manhandle the Panthers D there's it's going to be really hard for Carolina to throw their way back into this one. Carolina is you mentioned their great defense, like the way that they were able to sort of jump on Brady and the Bucks last week. They were at home, which I think definitely mattered. Last week, they were at home, which I think definitely mattered. But I don't know if I love them if they don't have a big lead up front. So I'm fine with taking the Falcons here. I wish it was three, but I'm good with them. It's fine.

I'm good with it. Let's move on. We got our first yes. Got our first yes. Gross game here. Raiders at Saints. Resurgent Raiders, are one and a half point favorites in new orleans gosh i don't know what do you think and if you watch this game congratulations i just there's no i have no and all is going to start the raiders should be better i guess but

they're there's not they they found found new ways to lose each game, which isn't great. They're 19th in DVOA. New Orleans is close to them. They're 25th. But the Saints' injury is too... It just feels like I have zero feel for this game whatsoever.

Raiders have sort of turned it around quietly. To recover, they're not winning. They blew out the Texans Yeah. Raiders have sort of turned it around quietly. They're not winning. They blew out the Texans last week to our chagrin and the Broncos two weeks before and then they lost that Brule one to KC. I feel like the Raiders are such a better team, but they started so slow that it's hard to trust them. I feel like the Saints are one of those teams that everyone was like yeah like they're you know they're fine they're pretty good they're competent it's like are they i feel like the saints are kind of coasting on a reputation that they haven't

really earned but i don't on the other hand i don't trust the raiders uh derrick carr traditionally has stunk on the road 16 17 26 and one against spread on the road since uh 17 so not great one of the the second worst in the league so i think this is probably a pass but the raiders if the raiders are anything they have to win this game like i i cannot fathom that they would lose it i'm yeah i agree with that but i'm not wager on this game though pass uh bears cowboys cowboys laying nine and a half off of a dominant bears win so this down here is interesting right prescott list is above a td favorite seven two against the spread yeah it is interesting i look he's like better with he's he's good against bad teams i guess he's sort of like in the kirk cousins range

um i also think he the bears this this season have kept everything pretty close. That was the big takeaway of my prep for this is like the Bears every single week except one have only lost by one score. And I do think they maybe figured something out this week. Like Justin Fields was doing a lot more designed runs. Like Darnell Mooney kind of woke up. Like they've got two good running backs. I actually kind of

think I might like Chicago here. Can I give you a breaking news update from Ian Rapport tweeted out seconds ago? The Bears are trading

Robert Quinn to the Eagles. Huh? Wow. He has not been as good this season. Robert Quinn is not. Yeah.

So the Bears basically decide after the mini-bye week to play Thursday night just with a new offense. We're going to run a new offense. The problem is the Cowboys' defense is pretty freaking good, dude. It sounds great to do that, but it's a different defensive line. It's a different monster. The Cowboys' defense is just so much havoc created by them. But offensively, the Cowboys

didn't look that different with Dak Prescott, right? They just kind of did enough. He made, obviously, better plays second half to stay in this game, but if the Lions score to go up 13-10, this game is, the Cowboys' game is different, right? Like, the Lions fumbling that ball at the one-yard line changed that

entire game. So, I don't really feel great about any of these teams. The Bears can fall flat on their face. The Bears are also going Monday Night Football on the road to on the road in Dallas. Feels like a lot of on the road. And I would just stay away. It's not a game I feel great about playing.

Yep, I'm good. Let's stay away. Okay, perfect. Okay, next game. We're still in the early window here. The Dolphins are going to Detroit. Detroit's really been on a skid here. Tua looks pretty, I would say, pretty solid last week.

They still have dropped four interceptions. We're not betting on the Lions. Just telling you right now. We're not betting on the Dolphins. Which is the way that you would bet this game. And I've seen Sharps take the Lions here. Dan Campbell might get fired after this game. They're just not good.

The Lions' plan was to show that you have support around a quarterback. They're like, this is our team minus the quarterback. If we add the quarterback, we're going to be good. That hasn't happened, Matt. They just are not good. They scored 0.6 points the last two games. Six points off a bye, by the way, right? And the Dolphins struggled to move the ball

in the second half of that game against Pittsburgh, but I just don't like really any team in this game. I'm not taking the Dolphins minus three and a half. But the Lions, I think, in previous iterations of this show would have been done, sold. But they're just not good right now. We just can't. I text you this every Sunday. I hate rooting on bad

football teams on Sundays. I get it. It's part of the job of winning wagers. You're going to do that. But this team, I think, is too bad to wager on at the moment. Yeah, it's pass. I feel like now that you've mentioned the dan campbell thing it's like this could be the game the lions lose by two and then fire campbell because he like went for two instead of kicking an extra point or some stupid thing like that um

yeah i don't i don't trust miami here they definitely have not been the same since that hot start and i'm not sure where they are yet so So this is a pass. I do not trust the Lions either. Great, interesting game here. The Cardinals are at the Vikings. Vikings coming off the bye. They are three and a half point favorites at home. Five and one. You've got a look on your face that suggests you want to pass this.

But I think I could probably make a pitch for you here. For the Vikings? No, for the cardinals actually so the cardinals first of all i think that go continue we'll do two of these fingers for you i understand why um but here's the thing so i want to pull up the stat because it absolutely blew me away. So Cliff Kingsbury, way better as an underdog, way better as a road underdog. He's won and covered eight straight road games, 15-3-2 against the spread on the road in his career. 21-9-2 against the spread as an underdog in general. The Vikings are one of these teams that everybody, a buddy of mine who watches football every week texted me he was like did you know the vikings

are five and one like no one is talking about them they've had this kind of strange schedule where like they beat the packers they're just boring like there's like they're boring they're not that good they're well yeah that's part of it too. They're not using, they're like dead last and explosive, not explosive pass plays, Cousins is dead last in like yards per attempt. Their bootleg game sinks down. They're not pushing the ball down the field. But my only concern about

this is off of by the Vikings to self-scouting and said, you know what, let's like push the ball downfield more. Let's change what we do on offense. They're going to be a much different team in this game, Matt. Are you sure?

I mean, it's a first-year head coach, and to your point, Kirk Cousins off a bye, 2-5 against the spread in his career. He's 9-16 straight up with extended rest. The more time you give this guy to think, the worse it is. So is this one of your favorites of the week, by the way? I really like the more the more time you give this guy to think the worse you get the worse it is so is this one of your favorites of the week by the way i really like the number yeah i think that like it's not even three it's four like if like i just think there's a four now and we're also talking about a cardinal scene that looked completely different with deandre hopkins and like that's true they looked like completely functional on offense. They have a lot of weapons. And I feel like this could be the game where everyone's like, whoa,

Cardinals. Yeah. I don't know, man. I mean, I'm okay with putting it as a maybe because we've, I've, we made this point many times now,

like we're not ignoring our partner's favorite plays because those typically win. Like we just like those plays. They win. So I'll put it in the, in the maybe. So I'll consider it because if maybes. I'll consider it because if we're missing one or you really want to put this in there,

I'll leave you the opportunity to put this in there. Oh, all right. Well, thank you. I reserve the right to cuss you out via text message at 4 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. Well, you've been doing that anyway, to be fair. I do it anyways. All right, let's go to the next one here. All right, next one. We've got Tennessee at Houston.

We don't know what the deal is with Tannehill. He was in a walking boot this week. Do you have an update on him? There's a deal. We're not betting on the Texans anymore. No. And we're not betting on the Titans as road favorites either. So none of the things are happening in this game.

I don't know, man. The Texans are so terrible. You really think that they... This is the week they're going to screw us, Matt. Yeah, you're right. Yeah, I know I'm right. Yeah, good. I will just make the point,

I know Tennessee fans and I have gone into it over social media because they have a bunch of sensitive fans. Well, I guess every fan base does. But I made this pledge a couple weeks ago, and I will stick to it. The Colts get praised all the time for their off-seasons, and all we do is say the Titans aren't going to be as good. They're not going to be as good.

And they just go out and kick Colts' ass, first of all. And they just kick everyone else's butt, and they win the division every year. Are they great? No. Are they, they like purely good i mean i think their defensive line's better that they stop sure derrick henry's good sure but like not a great team they just win they win a bunch of games so i just want to give the shout out to

mike vrabel i think he's a really good coach yeah i agree um yeah speaking of that uh he's 15 and three against the afc south which is just absolutely dominant. I'll put in the maybes. I just think... I feel like people are still... This is clearly a hedge if Ryan Tannehill doesn't play. It's sort of in the middle. But I don't know.

If Ryan Tannehill doesn't play, isn't the game plan just Malik Willis hands it off a thousand times to Henry? It's not the worst outcome either. Correct. Yeah, I don't mind it. Hank is big. Our producer Hank is big on teams playing the week after Vegas, where the Texans played last week. Vegas is the least profitable prior city of all 32 NFL teams, which means maybe you have a little bit of fun after the game and takes a few days to recover or something like that.

So I think that's a pretty interesting little theory there. Probably not factoring that in a ton here, but it's just like these two teams are not close. Like the Titans have been actually good, know how to win games. And yeah, Texans don't. I mean, I'll, I'll, I'll consider it. As I think that it's a, I mean, we have to win by and yeah texans don't i mean i'll i'll consider it as i think that it's a i mean we have to win by a field goal it's not like a lot yes exactly i have tannahill plays this is like a lock i feel like and if he doesn't play then it's probably a pass like running around making plays

like i don't know i wouldn't mind watching that game yeah i just i mean i just trust for able to like they're trying to win um okay i knew that i was going to sort of heat up with my opinions here and i have this whole list of games that i like like moving forward yeah there's a lot there's a lot of games here i like me too um including this one for me yes maybe not a surprise uh los comandantes are going to sam Ellinger's Colts. Sign me up. Let's go.

Sign me up. We'll say that the line is three. It's three or two and a half. I bet on plus four. Matt, Ryan gets announced out. It goes one point different. Dude. God, Washington is a frustrating team to watch.

Holy heck. I watched the entire game. So did you. It just was so like the rest of the games were all in the middle of third quarter when that one went to halftime. It was such a weird referee game. But the team plays different without Carson Wentz. 100%.

I mean, you notice like Chase Young hasn't said a thing in like a year. And the day they won the game, he posts a picture of Heineken on a story. It's like this team loves Heineken and to Heineken's credit, like the throw that ended up sealing the game, that throw to McLaurin, he, he was getting hit. McLaurin hadn't made his cut yet. And he just threw it.

He was like, fuck it. This guy's a number one receiver. We paid him $70 million. Let's get it to him and that's what washington's built to do like they have these playmakers and they just need a guy who can get the ball there even if he's not the best quarterback so also the colts aren't very good the 31st the colts aren't good this is a first start i thought this reeked of like a desperation move to me like foals is sitting there like if they thought that they were like kind of in good hands like a desperation move to me like foals is sitting there like if they thought that they were like kind of in good hands like a team that's 500 in week seven probably should turn to the guy who's

played before yeah ellinger like this is not a great team to go against like a we want to save our jobs type of thing yeah and it sort of like gives you a little bit of an excuse maybe i this just to me like i i don't know why the colts the Colts I think are second to last in total DVOA. Like, I don't know why. I mean, Washington's not great either, but like to throw a rookie quarterback or, you know, a late round quarterback against this pass rush with a team that feels like they have an identity.

Now I feel like this is a great, great chance to take Washington. I'm with you. Let's do it. Let's do it. So long, Matt Ryan. You had one amazing year and I can't you. Let's do it. Let's do it. So long, Matt Ryan. You had one amazing year, and I can't remember much else from your career.

49ers at Rams is the next 4 o'clock game. The Rams are one and a half point home dogs. Obviously a lot of history with these teams. Very good recent history for the Niners. What do you think?

I'd love to take the Niners in this one, Matt. Me too. They didn't play as bad as the score indicated last weekend. They just kicked them into field goals. That's the problem against Kansas City. The Rams don't match up well in this game every year

for a couple reasons. One, their offensive line is not very good. Now, Armstead and Buckner, Armstead may or may not play, probably not. Kinlaw's not there, but Bosa's back, right? I said Buckner and Armstead, by the way. They both play together at Oregon. They're not on the same team anymore. But Armstead might be back. Kinlaw's out, obviously.

But Bosa's back, and he looked good against the Chiefs. The Chiefs were unable to neutralize Bosa with a game plan. The Rams, maybe they can do that, but probably not. Quarterback play? Not as good this year for the Rams. Running back play? Not as good this year.

Wide receiver play? Not as good this year. The lack of depth is really hurting this team right now. Defensively, Aaron Donald's still good, but the Niners always have a good plan for Aaron Donald. There's a lot of comfort in this game. The Niners

have won seven in a row in the regular season. The one loss to make it 7-1 was the NFC Championship game. I like the Niners' bounce-back spot here. Yeah, I do too. I mean, this is the spot where you would say, like, if you're a McVay backer, he's off a bye.

He's great off a bye. You like a home dog in the division in a second matchup. You like all those things. But, like, I don't know, man. The 49ers are healthy like the rams their big news is like we're getting van jefferson back like okay um you know the 49ers last week got tripp williams back they got bosa back they obviously have now a full week with mcafree in the offense i just think that they're a much better team and stay obviously

like know that you mentioned that the history seven straight outside of the playoffs um i just think you have to take the 49ers here even though it doesn't feel great to go against mcveigh and a must win but i think you gotta do it um debo samuel things interesting but he's in practice uh as we're recording this today but they got christian mccaffrey so that's that's probably gonna help um the only game this week between two teams with winning records is the giants at the seahawks that is just unbelievable um the seahawks are three point favorites at home giants ronnie dangerfield can't get no respect okay what do you think do you have a very strong take in this game do you okay no but i have a feeling we have the same side go ahead love seattle this weekend yeah absolutely love seattle okay the giants great

story right awesome story they've won games by one point three points eight points five points four points and six points. Great. Love it. That doesn't happen in the NFL week after week. Like, at some point, it's like we have met our match. And Seattle is their match. Seattle's playing much better in defense the last couple of weeks, right? They are doing – every year, Pete Carroll starts slow in defense,

pick it up, the season goes on, play much better. The Giants, again, like offensively, I love what Brian D'Abel is doing he's doing a fantastic job of just like scheming offense around Daniel Jones the limitations he has lack of wide receivers great um what I don't understand too the Giants let me pull this up to make sure I'm right this the. The Giants on defense are 29th in DVOA, but don't allow any points. Like, it's very, at some point, the dam's going to break, and they're going to allow 45 points in the game. And this is the game. Seattle's really good on offense.

They're really stout. They're healthier. They're playing good football. Kenneth Walker is running his ass up. Geno Smith is good. Like, he's a good quarterback. You can't deny that right now. DK Metc running his ass up. Gino Smith is good. Like he's a good quarterback. I can't deny that right now. Um,

DK makeup, probably not playing. I'm not that concerned by it. Just really hard to play in Seattle as well to be loud and raucous. I'm very happy taking Seattle here. Minus a three. Um, I didn't win this game by seven or more points.

Yeah. I have a feeling this is the week. Um, you mentioned how hard it is to play in seattle i feel like it's a little under discussed uh seattle since carol's been there they've won 64 of their games in seattle that's unbelievable that includes playoffs uh that's third best in the league behind tom brady's patriots and the chiefs um so they're a very reliable bet at home uh i think the evan neal thing is a huge huge miss bellinger to the tight ends uh for the giants like i agree i think this is the spot where the regression finally happens

um we've got the what did you say the giants were 29th uh dvoa on defense um going against seattle and the third offense in dvoa. That's going to be a nightmare. We haven't seen this Giants team come back like, oh, we're down 20 to nothing in the first quarter. What are you going to do then with no receivers? So I think that this could be the week where it's like, oh, Seattle's for real and here the Giants are on a slide and then we bet them the following week.

I love this play. Love it. Okay, great. So what do we have, or four four and i think you might end up getting your arizona pick in here at some point so yeah well it's to me it's either arizona or this game and that's green bay at buffalo which side are you taking this game well right now i want to i want to make sure that we call this the right line because this just keeps moving uh this was a 10 and a half then it went to 11 and now what are we seeing here we see an 11 and a half 12 maybe i mean it's not pretty but you have

to take the packers like you just have to i see 10 and a half now i mean i see 11 there's some movement right here 11 wow there's a there's every book has it's between 10 and a half 11 11 and a half yeah and it's probably going to keep moving but the thing is here the bets are 50 50 80 percent of money on the packers um and this is just a like hey is aaron rogers going to get blown out in prime time after losing three straight. Yeah, he is. Yeah. They're not good right now. I don't want to take Buffalo. No chance.

Zero chance. I'd much rather go Arizona, Minnesota than the Packers right now. The Packers just aren't – the finger pointing – we keep saying that the Packers and really the Bucs, by extension here, are going to figure it out. They certainly can, Matt. Certainly can figure it out. But I kind of don't feel like they're going to.

Like, it's week eight now. Week eight. And they're getting worse, both teams. Yeah. I just don't know when they're going to get out of this. They're playing a Buffalo team that's freaking good. Last year, Buffalo's problem was the variance in offense was up and down each week. Number one in the NFL were 30 second invariance, like up and down each week, right?

Never know what you're getting on offense. They're 15th this year. Like, you know what you're getting, right? You know what you're getting each week. And I just don't. I think White's coming back this week for Buffalo, I think, right? George White's coming back, I believe. I am no, am no sir.

I am okay with passing on this game. This is the biggest underdog spread of Aaron Rodgers' career, according to our friend Evan at Action Network. Oh, yeah. It is. Which is really surprising. I mean, I guess it's really not surprising, actually. Man. surprising i mean i mean i guess it's really not surprising actually um man i am i mean the case

is essentially just like you know can it's just a bad on history which is not something that we should be doing um what's interesting is that the bills are this unbelievably devastating second half team the packers are oh and seven against the spread in the second half so far this season so this could be a like actually if you like Buffalo in this I feel like you play it at halftime and you say like it's going to be close the first half like the Packers this is this is like sort of the opposite of the Bills KC game where the Bills like the Bills really wanted to make a statement there Green Bay all eyes are going to be on them and this is the season right like it's if minnesota were to win like the they're gonna have a really hard time climbing back into the playoffs uh in

in the nfc now so green i have a feeling like this is gonna be a it's oh it's tied at halftime like aaron rogers can you can you keep keep it up and then at the end of the game buffalo does end up winning by 10 or so. I don't know. The play would be Green Bay for me. There's no chance I'd be on Buffalo with this big number. That's fine. But don't be shocked if Green Bay keeps this one interesting. But it's a pass for us.

The Monday night game, Cincy at Cleveland. I didn't really think about this one, but now that I'm looking at it, I'm like, huh, I actually do kind of like one of the teams here. Since he's laying three. The Bengals are just really – the Browns are just really bad against the division with Stavansky. Terrible against the division. And the Bengals have looked incredible in the last few weeks.

Yeah, I don't think you wager on the Bengals in this spot either, though. I mean, that kind of breaks everything that we do, right? Like the road teams you wager on are like Kansas City. Yeah. And Buffalo and like the Ravens, like not the Bengals in this spot. The Browns aren't bad. If they were just a tad bit better on defense, they would win a lot more games. Like, Jacoby Brissett's been okay.

The Bengals are getting all the love right now, too. Like, I just think this is a stay-away game or the Browns, but I don't feel great about the Browns in this spot. Not one of my favorite this week. That's, that's how I would look at it, Matt. Oh,

oh, and the three against the Browns, but two and one against the spread. That's kind of strange. Like, who do you like better this week? Do you like the Browns or the Cardinals? Oh no,

it would a hundred percent be the Bengals. If for me, if we were playing, Oh, the Bengals. Yeah. A hundred percent. Okay. Bengals or Cardinals. cardinals oh no it would 100 be the bangles for me if we were playing oh the bangles yeah 100 um okay bangles or cardinals cardinals okay like we have one we have one slot left where i'm basically like i'm done with my you're seeding it to me well yeah like you we you you seem really high in arizona you made a great case you're right about hopkins like yeah like i'm okay with

arizona plus four instead of taking uh the bangles here yeah let's do it okay i'm comfortable with that so we've got a hand i'd like to bring up that taylor heineke buys a pair of jordans that match the color of the opponent he just beat so he wore green he wore green uh does that make you want washington even more it does for me It makes it worth another half point at least. Yeah. I'm with you. It should be two and a half now. Okay, we got Atlanta minus four, Washington plus three,

Nyers minus one and a half, Seattle minus three, Arizona plus four. 17-17-1. Pac-12 this week. What are like under Thursday, Utah, Washington State. By the way, record Pac-12 overall this year, 16 to 14. Overall in general, 81 and 43. Pretty incredible. Excellent.

I like USC first half against Arizona. Team total over. Very specific. Have to wait until Friday probably to find that actual number but if it's anything like i need to be like 24 ish around there look at their total the team total i like that um those are the two i like so far um in the conference only wednesday as we record this i would take those two those are my favorites again um you know getting a little hot in the pack of action um colorado plus 13 and a half hosting arizona state might also be a plight of pain on arizona

state's quarterback situation so a couple things to look for there all right oh i like ucla first half hosting stanford so there you go these are this is the worst sticking around until minute 50 in the show when you get uh when you get nuggets are this is the worst sticking around until minute 50 in the show when you get uh when you get nuggets like this hey man it's a conference i follow it's what it's what it's what i do best it is man it's what you're you're winning people money yeah we we can't say that so much for the rest of these games but i i just got a text from a buddy who just traded for derrick henry and fantasy and he shared this Derek Henry's last three games versus the Texans 211 yards and three touchdowns 212

and two 250 and two I have a feeling that might be the Titans might might be able to cover the two there you want to put them in I don't know man I don't know who we'd kick out yeah the only one that I feel a little bit

shaky on after thinking about it for more than two seconds is the is the falcons um just because like they are the falcons i would consider if tannahill's playing that we could do a thing where we're like hey we made our picks but then tannahill came back and we're getting a great number we're going to titans but i don't know i don't know how you feel we we're we're going to do this for the Pittsburgh game. Remember? Yep. Plus nine and a half and they won outright.

So I don't like changing it so much. I think it's just like, you know, the, the, I feel like that's, I don't know. It's not the worst thing, but not, I don't know, not the best thing. So, all right, everybody. We'll let you know. Maybe we'll change it. Add Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. I'll let you know. Maybe we'll change. Add Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. I'll let you know before we kick off on Sunday.

All right. Please rate, review, subscribe. How about the Varsity Podcast Network? Have a great weekend, everyone, of sports watching. We'll catch up with you next week. Take care.