Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 9 (Plus Matt's Dreams Come True)

Episode Date: November 3, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to give you thee five best bets for Week 9 of the NFL season, but first, there's some breaking news that needs to be addressed: Dan Snyder may be selling the Commanders! Matt, Hank, and DC fans everywhere are celebrating in the streets. Also, Geoff does a recap of the busiest trade deadline week ever.This episode is packed, so be sure to leave a rating and a comment if you listened to the whole thing, and follow the pod to get notified when new shows come out every Tuesday and Thursday.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday november 3rd i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz with smart new power by the varsity podcast network it is our weekend wagering show we go through all the wagers of the weekend in the nfl i throw in a few pack 12 at the end and we have a grand old party talking about uh this upcoming weekend but before we get to that trade deadline news will be discussed and how it affects maybe some games this weekend but matt more importantly your commanders are finally for sale might be the greatest sports day for you as a washington football fan um washington commies fan washington r words fan whatever you want to say you my friend look like you might have a new owner of your football team. I cannot describe the feeling I had when I saw this news alert this morning.

Granted, at this point, you know, there's still this sort of caveat, like the Washington Post was a little bit more on the fence of like, is he actually going to do this? Like, is this really going to happen? And I'm sure producer Hank would agree. Like we'll believe it when we see it, because this is like a new lease on life for Washington fans. Let me, let me ask you this. Cause I already know the answer. The time where you were in the stadium, that was louder than any other point in your career. What was it?

Oh, it was the RG three touchdown in 2013. We're playing 2012. We're playing the Vikings. I was in the Vikings playing Washington. That might've been the single loudest moment in the NFL was when I RG3 scored that long, like 74 yard touchdown to win the game. That was incredible.

2012. Yeah. So that play, I mean, that was a year, that was in 2012, that was like an oasis in decades of just mediocrity and worse. Because I think that Washington fans don't get enough credit. I mean, this is like a top five fan base that has just been beaten down forever and for so long. They were top five in attendance. They were first in attendance when Snyder bought the team in 2000 they were in the top five until 2017 and it's just collapsed and you watch these Washington home games and they're all road fans um last week with with

the Packers fans there with the division fans there it's even fans from like you know if Seattle were to play Washington to be full of Seattle fans and it just doesn't make any sense i did play the next year by the way in 2013 in that same stadium and there were about 4 000 fans that game with the chiefs and that's the thing is like this but this team like they've had two playoff wins uh in in snyder's entire 20 plus years of ownership none since 2005 like it's been crushing to watch this fan base fall apart for so long and they should like there's no reason that a kid who grew up where Hank and I grew up in Maryland DC Virginia like shouldn't be a Ravens fan shouldn't be somebody a fan of somebody else just with the terrible things that Snyder's done with his team and uh I'm just so

happy like imagine we could get our team back. Like somebody was like, you know, what if somebody made a joke? They were like, oh, I heard that Harvey Weinstein and Vladimir Putin were going to come together and buy this team. And I was like, great. Like, can it be worse? This guy is horrible. Like, remember, he's been personally charged of sexual assault twice. There was this whole thing with the cheerleaders. There was, Hank pointed this out, there was a DE raid of of the trainer this august like what are we doing it's been just a complete mess for so long um and i'm just really happy to see that there's possibility for hope for this team because these fans deserve it i mean it's just been terrible so he bought the team for $750 million.

He's going to sell for close to $6 billion. I bet it's more. Yeah. I mean, they said 5.7. That's why I said six. Like, it's going to be six or more because – It's definitely going to be more. What's going to happen is someone's going to come in and want a new stadium. That's number one.

And they're probably going to put it somewhere out there as well. And, you know, that's going to be another – that's going to add going to add value to the team that seems to cost how much money to build three billion dollars some new stadium up there and there's some real political work to figure out where it's going yeah and they need it too uh they need that as well so yeah i mean and you're right about the fan base very passionate but more anything else like owners don't have to be like that's the right way to put this like i don't care if they're a greedy capitalist people but like at least be like good people right like and he doesn't seem like a good person you know i get like you want to be you're a greedy owner and people don't like them they're so greedy and they just want to make

money sure i mean don't we all in essence want to do that? But like, you know, Giants ownership by John Mara, good guy. I like him. Nice guy, right? Just be nice. Just be a nice human. And he has a ton of money. So I think Snyder, for me, getting him up out of the league is great. Bad human being.

Doesn't feel like he's a good human. Get him out of the league. And I did see today, though, will you follow suit? Will you be a Colts fan? I saw a PFT talking about how he will now be a Colts season ticket holder. He promised he will be a Colts fan. Jim Ursa, the Colts owner, has been the most vocal about throwing Snyder out the club. And once that started happening, Matt, it felt very obvious this was going to be the end game at some point.

Was Snyder gone? But are you now a Colts? We've sworn the Colts off on this podcast. We don't talk about the Colts on this podcast. But are you back in now? Are you a Colts fan? I mean, I will always appreciate it. I've always, you know, I have enough friends from Baltimore that I can't ever fully wrap my head around the Urses from ripping the Colts out of Baltimore a long time ago.

But I will say that I am so grateful that he broke the ranks. It's like somebody just to speak up and say, like, hey, this guy, you know, maybe we should be talking about this. It's like, great. Somebody broke the silence. I honestly, like, I think when you when you think about this team, like'd basically be like if somebody bought the Steelers and then the Steelers just sucked until 2050. Like, that's honestly what happened. Like, Washington, people don't really remember this, but, like, in the 80s and the 70s, 80s, and 90s, like, they were unbelievable. They had the fourth most playoff wins from 1970 to 1998.

It was, like, Dallas and San Francisco and Pittsburgh. That was it. It's like, imagine now if like maybe the Ravens are a better example, like a consistently good, solid team that every year was just like in the mix, just fell apart. It just,

it's just unprecedented. Like I, there's not been a collapse like this that I can think of in, in any professional sport where a team just went from the top of the mountain to just garbage for two, two and a half decades. Like it's just crazy how bad this guy's. It happens a lot more in college sports where college is good for a period

of time. And then it kind of goes in the crapper with bad coaching. Where parody isn't built into the, to the products. Like it's literally built into this. Yeah. So, all right.

So the, the, well now we'll also too like commanders has got to go right like that's not staying with a new owner is it i mean at this you made a decision just just stick with it i don't care i i would have liked them to keep the football team but like whatever i'm fine with it you can call them anything you want if you get out of there i don't care i will be back. That's the only thing holding me back. It would be amazing to this era.

Remember when they sold expired beer and peanuts from an airline that folded? That's who we're talking about here. Remember when the stadium fell on Jalen Hurts last year? Yes. That is the owner of this team. It is time. This is a multi-billion dollar product the person in charge should be able to run a mcdonald's like let's go i'm with you man i'm

glad for washington i'm glad for you you and hank obviously big washington fans it was a big uh war of happiness day it looked like the philly fans cheering for bryce harper last night all the washington fans getting up and cheering all at one time after that big news there also was a ton of news yesterday uh that was not daniel snyder related that is the nfl trade deadline um the most trades most active trade deadline in nfl history um big names little names cat moves whatnot but i just i love matt that the nfl now has younger general managers yeah and like when i came in the NFL in 2008, there was a sense of like, we keep our draft picks.

Like we draft a guy, he's there three or four years. He's ours. We're going to make it right. And if we don't, if we get rid of that guy, we look like a bum. Like our fan base doesn't like it and we get fired. Now they're like, screw that draft pick. I want, get him out of here give me another draft

pick or vice versa right f them picks give my picks up to get proven players you know there's extremes of this right the rams are the extreme but like the dolphins for example trading for for bradley chubb the pass rush out of denver they have multiple first round picks they have now been moved but they've been moved those picks have been moved but if But if you look at their roster, yeah, they could use an offensive tackle next year. But, like, they have the quarterback, right? So you feel more comfortable saying, hey, we'll give our first-round pick up. We have our quarterback set.

Probably a late first-round pick anyways. Let's get a pass rusher that can help us win now. Now, are they a win-now team? Probably not, okay? Are they a win-now team? Probably not, okay? They would have to beat the Chiefs and Bills, most likely, to win the AFC. Don't see that happening.

Sorry, Dolphins fans. Can you beat one of them? Sure. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there. Buffalo's going to win the division, though. You're going to play them in Buffalo. They're going to beat you. So they're going to have a division.

You're going to have to go on the road to Kansas City and Buffalo to win. Probably not there yet, even with Chubb. And if Chubb allows you to not blitz so much, which is a problem because when you pressure so much, you leave your corners on islands. That's how you give up big plays. So if it allows you to now back off on third down, second down, first down, and not pressure so much, great. Good job. You're going to have to pay Chubb as well, which may put a wrinkle in how you feel about this trade.

But that's the one, to me, that was the most all-in, kind of like Rams deal. Now, everyone points to the Rams last season. Yes. They also traded for a Hall of Famer in Von Miller. They also had other things go their way. A dropped interception by the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. They had things happen that helped them along the way.

So this is not a, in my opinion, a Rams-Von Miller trade, where you trade for one guy and energize your team and you win a championship. It's just, I think it's part of the roster building in Miami to get to a point next year when you're able to kind of maybe push some more chips in and get your roster better around tua i i agree i think that the but maybe this is just from a fan's perspective but like

if if i'm a dolphins fan i'm thrilled like yeah sure like you meant you are not going to be able in theory to beat the chiefs or the bills maybe football is a sport. I'm talking to a guy who knows this better than anybody. It's a sport with a 100% injury rate. Anything can happen. And to say, hey, we're pretty damn good. Let's put some chips on the table. Let's get in the mix here. Even if it's not this year, it's for the next couple

years. That team has really turned it around. It was a year or two ago. Didn't last year they started, what, like 0-7 or something? They were absolutely awful last year and now they're thinking they're viewing themselves as a super bowl contender so shout out to them i mean i just think that i i love it even if chubb isn't necessarily as good as von miller like i do think that it's it's uh smart to uh to get in the mix there but the move that i think that that not enough people are talking about is this roquan Smith trade to the Ravens.

Roquan Smith, two-time All-Pro, second team, but still, middle linebacker for Baltimore. It just feels right that a guy at that level would be back on that defense. Baltimore is another team where it's like, hey, wait a second. Could they win the Super Bowl? They absolutely could. I was a little surprised they didn't make another move on offense to to help out lamar jackson but i just love that move man it's like they're in contention every year i thought that's a smart one i think the point you made by the way of the dolphins telling their players they're all in right like that's the important part is like guys like

we're going for this and the players probably already knew that but now you get a sense of hey we're 100 going for it um Some other trades, by the way, you mentioned Roquan Smith. Does that change the Ravens' fortune? I don't know. Adding good players is never bad. It's never a bad thing. That, to me, is always the key here. Adding good players is never bad.

TJ Hawkinson went from the Lions to the Vikings, a tight end. I'm not sure that changes much of the way we feel about the Vikings. Chase Claypool to the Bears. That feels a lot like a deal for the future. Let's bring him in now. Let's help out Justin Fields and kind of see where this goes. And we have a

player, at least for one more year after this year, in a rookie contract. Naheem Hines went from the running back, I should say, from the Bills, excuse me, to the Bills from the Colts. I don't know. The Bills are desperate for a running back. I don't think it the Bills from the Colts. I don't know. The Bills are desperate for a running back. I don't think it's changing anything for Buffalo.

They're still the best team in the NFL. Some other trades. Jeff Wilson Sr. went to Miami in that trade. Excuse me, from the 49ers, right, to Miami in that trade. He came from the Niners, right? Yeah, Jeff Wilson Jr., yeah. Yeah, because they traded Chase Edmonds to Denver in that Bradley Chubb trade. It's hilarious.

It's like fantasy football. I know. It's ridiculous. Everybody's just moving around. It's awesome. It's great. The one team that never makes a move is the Packers. I think we thought.

Yeah. Wide receiver. It's funny. If you watch or listen to Packers, follow the beat writers for the Packers, it's pretty funny, man. Pay attention to this in free agency, okay, Matt? After someone signs somewhere, they're always in the hunt for that player. It's incredible. Like every time someone signs somewhere, like the next tweet is,

the Packers were in on this guy. The Packers were in on this guy. The Packers were in on Chase Claypool. Then get him. Like get him, right? Like get Chase Claypool. They were in it with him. Didn't happen.

I don't know. They seem reluctant to always use the trade market to help them out. So, yeah, that's a bit. But, Matt, here's the thing about it. None of these trades affected at all how I feel about any of these teams heading into this weekend. And that's the thing about it. I mean, maybe we'll get into how we feel about certain teams as we move.

Actually, maybe one. One team, I might have an anti-take on one of the trades they made to how I feel about their chances to win this weekend. We were 3-2 last weekend. We are now 20-19-1. So we're treading water. We're actually doing better than we were at this point last year, Matt. But, guys, it is a freaking crunch on Sundays, man.

I am exhausted by any day gambling on these games. And, of course, Matt and I will both agree we have other wagers out there as well. But these are the five I most care about. And, dude, it is a torturous grind. College football with 3-1 by Pac my pack 12 plays no sweats just like winners and losers pretty pretty obvious early on what was gonna happen dude this one was this weekend was a rough one buddy it was man i just like this was like the week where i think we were the most back and forth in our text like um there was a moment where here this was at let me see what

time this was this was at some point in the second half of the late window it was like 6 30 p.m easter we were like oh yeah oh and five yeah i said you said feels like one and four is coming and i said we're either going three and two or oh and five and we were really i mean it was there was the seattle game that was crazy i mean i'm so mad at cliff kingsbury for i we found that little inefficiency and he screwed us i'm done betting on the cardinals ever um i don't know if we grinded it out man we'll take a winning record it's one day at a time well we had the atlanta game that was like up and down should have had that we should have lost that we Should have had that. We should have lost that.

We should have had it and lost it. Yeah, it was a fun week. I'll give you my Pac-12 plays. Those are up to 19 and 15 on the season. So I had another good week in the Pac-12. My Pac-12 record is like insane. I think it's like 84 and 44 now. Wow.

It's like insane. It's unbelievable. By the way, Friday night, Oregon State goes to Washington, and they predicted a, you know, it's always wet this time of year in Washington, and Oregon as well. Like there's always, you know, always going to have rain in the games. How about this? The game Friday night, yesterday a tweet comes out.

It says, the National Weather Service is forecasting an atmospheric river to pass through Seattle on Friday. Oregon State and Washington are going to play through some wet conditions. I'm also seeing wind gusts of 40-plus miles an hour. The total plummeted five points after that tweet. Jeez. Yeah. So pay attention to some of these numbers, guys.

Let's get to our first NFL game Thursday night. And the answer, Matt, is no. Is already no. The largest TNF road favorite of all time the Philadelphia Eagles are laying 14 against Davis Mills and I just can't imagine anyone on earth who would want to take either side here yeah no chance I wrote about this game for Fox Sports and my my comment was like you know you know the the square thing is obviously going to be taking, you know, taking, you know, the Eagles here, which certainly could dominate this game and make it unwatchable at certain points. But that 14 points in the road is an insane bet to make. But the Texans also just don't cover anymore.

There's not a good football team. They're worse than last year, it feels like. They only won four games last season. They're worse than last year, it feels like. They only won four games last season. The play here, by the way, is Damian Pierce over 63.5 rushing yards. The average is 77 per game. Eagles have had four games this year allowing at least 120 rushing yards and no Jordan Davis tomorrow night, the rookie D tackle,

who clogs up the middle of that defense. So look at Pierce here. That's my play I gave this morning for Fox. It's like I'm not playing the side or total, maybe under, just naturally speaking, I go under on a lot of games. But Damian Pierce over 63.5 rushing yards is the way I would play this game if you're looking for some money on this one. I like that, Jeff, giving us a little prop to consider.

Yeah. All right. I would put that in if I were listening along at the moment. money on this one i like that chef given given us a little prop to consider yeah all right let's that i would put that in if i were if i were listening along at the moment moving to sunday the resurgent carolina panthers are visiting the bengals who are laying seven and a half without jamar chase this was this was very interesting so i i really think the way to play this game, and again, we only do the sides, not the totals here, guys. So if we were, maybe next year we'll change it, Matt,

to include unders, mostly unders. But to me, this is a straight under game, right? The total is 42 and a half. The Bengals' defense is good. They eliminate teams from scoring quite often. And I think their DVOA for the year on defense isn't... Where is that?

Oh, it's ninth. They're a good defense. And the Browns got good field position, got some turnovers, but they can play defense. And the Panthers are not playing the Falcons, right? They had 24 points before the Hail Mary. They just... I think they're going to have trouble moving the ball in Cincinnati. But on the flip side, the Bengals can't do shit without Jamar Chase.

Can't block anybody. Can't move the ball. It was striking how bad they were without him. The Panthers are 18th in DVOA on defense, but they have Brian Burns who can eat this Beng this uh this this bangles off its line alive like i would leave under here but i would i wouldn't mind the seven and a half for the panthers if that was one side you wanted i mean in theory maybe but it's like we're buying the panthers at their break and and selling the bangles at their low point coming off of a blowout loss on national television

i was very curious about the hook here this was at seven and it's kind of bounced around seven and a half and all of the sharps came in on the bangles still um and it's still seven and a half two or seven yeah still seven it looks like seven seven and a half it's still got all the money um which is kind of surprising i just would think i mean the public weirdly is on the side of the panthers so i that kind of scares me i've i just i almost feel like we're stepping in it here so yeah i don't like i'm good laying off pj walker on the road that's oh totally fine with that yeah yeah um all right good work very that's how the process is supposed to work right there um the bills are are at the Jets. The Bills are massive favorites, 12 and a half.

They're just going to be seeing double-digit spreads every single week, and they almost hit one last week. I don't know. We're not taking the Jets here, are we? I don't think so. I feel like this is one of those divisional games where you just have to hold your nose and take the Jets, right? Oh, geez.

Open at seven, dude. Open at seven. Oh, yikes. I can't do it. Sharp money on the Jets, of course. Zach Wilson's just bad. And without their running back and without some offensive linemen, their defense is good.

But how long can they last against Buffalo? I would say that it's just kind of a stay-away game for us. Yeah. It's funny. I mean, the Bills went from this like, oh, they don't win close games anymore to like three of their last four wins have been close games. Yeah. It's just kind of strange.

I don't know. I mean, you're right. Like if you're taking a side here in your picks pool, like you're taking the jets, you just, you like divisional dogs. Um, they tend to,

uh, let's see. I just had the train in front of me and close the window. Uh, since 2020 divisional dogs are 54 and 39 against the spread this season. They're nine and five against the spread. So, you know,

you're hitting two thirds of those. If you don't have, like, if you don't actually notice who the teams are,'s probably the right play here but um i don't know jets without breeze hall still like we haven't really seen how much that can affect them i think i'm probably good to pass here oh i'm sure yeah pass for me yeah all right colts patriots is our next one patriots are five and a half point favorites at home. Sam Ellinger looked pretty good last week, I would say,

as someone who had some interest in that game. Do you have a side here? Yeah, I would take Sam Ellinger under passing yards this weekend, whatever that number is going to be. Yep. Do you like New England here? Five and a half. It's such a bad number.

Three, yes. Five and a half, no. Right? It's not the Colts. taylor didn't practice today um indy right now is 31st in dvoa 32nd offense 14th on defense new england is 14th sixth on defense so defense. So I would say no here. I'm actually curious. The money must be all on New England, right? I have to imagine. The money's actually all on the Colts.

Is it really? Yeah. At five and a half, it is all on the Colts plus 20%. Wow. Super interesting. I feel like it's so dangerous to trust Sam Ellinger, but the Colts, I don't really have – I mean, I feel like it's so dangerous to trust Sam Ellinger, but, like, the Colts, I don't know. Like, they just hang around.

Like, they could have easily won that game last week if Pittman had caught that long deep ball, and then this line would look a lot different. But it's like this thing of, like, well, it's, you know, Belichick versus, like, the rookie or sort of rookie quarterback. I don't know. I don't have a feel for this. Oh, either.

I don't want the number. Yeah. All right. I think that's a, that's a pass. Probably good start. Good start. Good start. Yeah.

Humming and hawing for the first four. All right. So the Raiders are going to Jacksonville. Is that next? Sorry. I was looking at a different Raiders at Jacksonville. Jags are one and a half point home dogs to the raiders who may be the most confusing team in the entire league oh

they stink they're not confusing they're just they're terrible but so is jacksonville man jacksonville just like cannot win a game we're seeing this is the raiders laying one and a half in jacksonville by the way can we talk about calvin rid quickly? Calvin Ridley. While he's suspended? Against. He traded to the team that he bet against as a member of the Falcons. Like, how incredible is that? I just look. I understand why he was suspended a year.

Like, I get it, right? Like, integrity of the game, all those things. But it's hard to score that with some other suspensions around the NFL, right? Like, it seems like very, very punitive. But yeah, trade for next year, obviously, because he won't play this year. There's also stipulations on the trade for draft picks, depending on how much he plays and his extension. But Matt, I got to take Jacksonville here. Like, I know they're not – they haven't played well.

But the Raiders stink, dude. Are the Raiders going on the road in warm Jacksonville, like, outside and winning? Like, they're about to get fired. I don't know, man. Like, look at this game as a straight-up game. Are you taking Jacksonville or Oakland look at this game is just straight up game are you taking jacksonville or oakland to win oakland or vegas to win this game i think i'm not betting it like honestly i feel like these are the two least trustworthy teams out there like jacksonville for how many

weeks is every single week we're like there's a better team all the metrics say so but like oh crap trevor lawrence threw a pick in the end zone for the eighth straight week and we lost the bet like yeah i like it seems insane to me that the raiders would be favored against anyone on the road um and you're you know you're right about the outside thing i just i don't know we can skip it it's fine i'm running're running out of games here, and I don't really have a thing to say other than I just don't trust either of these teams. We can put it on the maybes. We don't have to say no to it yet.

Derek Carr, the second least profitable road quarterback against the spread since 2017. That's interesting. I think it's a hold your nose and do game, but we can let it pass for right now let it pass for right now raider seven one on the road yet all right let's put it as a

maybe let's say jacksville's a maybe with a hard look at that later okay all right let's see next up keep looking at the wrong window dolphins and bears uh the dolphins flying high are laying five in chicago speaking of weather jeff you mentioned it in the college game. There could be some weather here with some wind and rain in Chicago. Does that factor into this? No, but I'm taking Chicago anyways, right? This is like an excellent opportunity to fade a very hot team who beat the Lions by only four points last weekend,

going back on the road to Chicago, getting all the attention now of the Bradley Chubb trade. And the Bears aren't good, but we're betting numbers, right? Like we're betting numbers here. And they're showing more life on offense. And I don't think the Dolphins' offense will see quite the numbers they did last weekend. The Bears' defense is not good.

There are no special teams about it, but the Lions' defense is atrocious, right? And we've seen the Dolphins have trouble this year just kind of scoring points at times, right? So I just think five and a half is a good number here, Matt. Opened at three, ballooned out. You're kind of buying against a good team right now in Miami. And the Bears have showed some life with Justin Fields. Hold your nose for sure. I'll take the Bears plus five and a half. Yeah, I thought this was a pretty interesting line because it opened at three. The Bears got murdered against a high-profile opponent. The Dolphins added to a couple of

big names in a trade, and the line didn't really move that much, which is usually a sign that Vegas knows something, I would think. Teams that lost by 20-plus since 2020 are 66-48 against the spread in their next game with a pretty good split. I'm fine with this. I feel like this is just one you just kind of have to say yes to, even if you don't necessarily love Justin Fields. But I don't know, man. This Dolphins offense is not going to be yes to even if you don't necessarily love yeah justin fields but i don't

know man this dolphins offense is not gonna be fun to go against i'm still up for it but like they can they can score in a hurry i i think that uh the problem is we're running out of games we're gonna yeah well all the ones that i do like are still ahead okay which is nice so let's what about the next game i have a feeling i I am curious your thoughts on this one. All right. The next one is NFC North Packers and Lions. Looks like four now, I think. There's a couple of different numbers out there.

Let me just double check this where we are now. It's either three or four. We could get a three or four. Yeah. Either direction. So minus three or plus four. That's the way it's. Yeah, we don't have two numbers yet. So what do or plus four. That's the way it's – yeah, we don't have super-convenient numbers yet.

So what do you think? Just go. My lead would 100% be the Lions here. Oh. Are you on the green bay? I think the Lions are terrible, buddy. They are bad, man. They have not scored a second-half point in three weeks.

Three weeks. Like, the Packers aren't great great but they played better against buffalo and i i certainly don't want to take you know the a road favorite and divisional game that hasn't played well this year but the lions are absolutely to me out you can't you cannot wager on them in this spot at all you you just can't. They just traded their tight end, by the way. They're just not good. They're not good. Justin Fields, I can

make a case. They're playing better, right? They just got Claypool. I can make sort of a visual case in my head of why the Bears can cover against Miami. What's the case of the Lions here? Just because the Packers stink, I guess that's the case. What have the Lions done to show you that they're any good

at all? The Lions can score. I mean, last week, they finally, they had Swift back, and they had St. Brown healthy, and their defense let them down. It's like, what does Green Bay do well on offense that's going to run up the points here? Oh, no. I'm not saying that we take Green Bay,

but I just don't think we take the Lions. Like, I just – that to me is the thing. Like, the Lions – dude, again, they haven't scored – this great offense can't score – they scored 27 points in the first half and zero in the second half. Zero. They scored zero the last two weekends in the second half of the game. Three straight weekends.

Zero points second half of the game. Derek Goff, horrible as an underdog. Way better as a favorite. I can't really make a super strong case here, but I just think, because you could also make the argument that this is exactly the kind of spot where Rodgers gets right. It's indoors. It's against a terrible defense that both teams are reeling.

It's like, who do you take in that spot? You probably lean on Rodgers, especially with only three. But I could just see that team falling apart. And this could be like this every week. It's like, is this the Lions' last stand? But they can actually score. So we can pass on it because, I don't know. I agree.

I don't really want to take the Lions either. I will say the Sharps seem to be on the Lions' side. About even on the bets, but way more on the money for the Lions. That's pretty simple. I mean, you Sharps seem to be on the Lions side. About even on the bets, but way more on the money for the Lions. I mean, you couldn't have guessed that. But the next game, Matthew, I feel like we are totally on the side on this one

together. Okay, yes. Thank goodness. This is the Vikings at the Commanders. Commanders plus three and a half. It's in D.C. What do you think? Oh, call me all the way, buddy. Lock it in. We're riding the Taylor Heineke train to cash in tickets.

I don't know. Washington's not terribly good. Taylor Heineke just keeps them alive. Like, he just – we were texting back and forth during that game, and, like, he doesn't have, like – I don't know. What does he do well? Just, like, doesn't – like, has no memory. Just, like – I was watching Ted Lasso with my wife.

You know, we watched it in season one, and, you know, at the end, they're like, you know, what's the – you know, Ted repeats the line of, what's the fish – what's the animal that has the smallest memory, right? And it's a goldfish. And thank you, Hank, for putting in the chat, the joke I'm trying to say right now. I appreciate that. The reference. Taylor Heineke is a goldfish.

He doesn't, he doesn't remember what happened the last play. It's unbelievable. Yeah. In Minnesota, it's like, what is, Minnesota is like, what, what are they? They're due for a little regression. They're also I look Taylor Heineke is a lot of things but one of the things that he certainly is is he's a competitor and in his last 10 starts eight and two against the spread

every single game it's going to be close with him we mentioned this at the top of the show this is going to be the happiest the Washington fan base has been in years oh yeah playing against Kirk Cousins who who would they rather beat than Kirk Cousins who's flying high the Vikings last week yes like they looked good against Arizona but screw Arizona um I love this spot for I love the spot for Washington and I'm I'm very willing to keep backing Heineke until the rest of the league catches up. Like sometimes, like how many quarterbacks are there in this league where it's like it's more about the scheme and the surrounding parts and the quarterbacks this year, whether it's Daniel Jones or, you know, Gina Smith, who's been great, obviously. But like you don't necessarily need to have Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, whose teams all suck. It's like sometimes you just need the right set of circumstances. So Heineke it is baby and one thing too about minnesota's offense they're just not pushing the ball down the field

like kirk cousins i think air yards per temp this year is like under six for the season that that's that's terrible you have feeling and jefferson you're not throwing the ball down the field um i think washington can keep this one close and on i like the commanders here plus three and a half let's lock it in but we got two so far we got chicago and washington two home teams outside on the grass as the weather gets a little bit chillier i love it love that all right cool we're getting into the home stretch here and this is where all the games i like come into play starting there next one chargers at falcons uh the chargers coming off the buy right they're laying three and a half yeah uh in atlanta shall we the over i like the over here at 49 okay but the

falcons are just not trustworthy anymore and they're kind of coming back down to earth we got lucky to even be in that game cover it which, which is the touchdown, I mean, the field goal at the end, it got us a six and obviously the long touchdown by Moore. The problem is that the Falcons are down a bunch of secondary pieces again. And I think the Chargers are coming there off a bye and just torch their ass, like through the air. Chargers can't stop the run, though, so the Falcons have an opportunity to run the ball in this game.

But I don't know, Matt. I feel like the Chargers are on my do not bet list at the moment. The Chargers can't stop the run, though, so Falcons have an opportunity to run the ball in this game. But I don't know, Matt. I feel like the Chargers are on my do-not-bet list at the moment. The Chargers are. No, I mean, the Falcons are. Both are. Got it. Well, I just, I mean, I don't think, I'm trying to look up Staley's record off of a buy. I don't believe that they were.

I think they were better last year, less time. Yeah, I guess that's right. He was just there last year. For some reason, I thought he was in the second year so the chargers so first of all we don't know what the deal is with keenan allen still he didn't practice yeah we also mike williams is not going to be playing they'll have eckler everyone's hot on joshua palmer and fantasy this week i just don't think the chargers i like everyone's out on the Falcons because they were riding so high and they cashed their tickets and then they got burned the last couple of weeks.

I just think this is a great spot for Atlanta. Like, are we scared of the Chargers off of a buy? Like this just feels like everyone still thinks the Chargers are the same team that everyone thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season. Their offensive line isn't healthy. They have, they don't have a ton of. And we're getting three and a half, which is a really nice number. This is west to east. I don't know. I just feel like this is a really good spot to take Atlanta here. Is this one of your favorites

this week? I just think it makes sense. It's not... Remember, I'm not going to stand on the table. I'm not vetoing your favorites, though, so I got to know. This is one of them. We got to put it in. I don't know i mean i well we have only two right now and we have three games left after this one four and we're not gonna bet one of them i promise you so we're gonna we have to pick like basically this game and three others you gotta pick three of four so we have to like we gotta start getting

some picks down so i'll put this as a maybe. Yeah. But I'm curious as we get further here, because there's one game I absolutely, I've already wagered on myself in the last four here. So let's, let's come back to this game again. I think Falcons run the ball on them. You made points about the Chargers wide receivers. Absolutely true.

But the mojo is kind of worn off. The Falcons cover six in a row row i've not covered the last two but it's right chargers on the road off a buy let's get to uh seattle at the cardinals yeah maybe this is your favorite one because this is the seahawks plus two in arizona is this the one it's not my favorite one but i i'm good with seattle here aren't you yeah of course like what what is this i like am i missing something here well um i don't know but i got a report the other day about the cardinals that like it's just not good in offense i mean we could see that but there's some strife happening between play caller, offensive line, protections, sorting things out.

Like, it hasn't been good. And Seattle's defense, guys, has gotten better each week. Like, they were like 32nd to start the season. Now they're all the way up to 11th on defense. They're just better. And what they do every year, they get better on defense. Offensively, they've dropped a little bit to seven now, but they're able to move the ball very well.

And Arizona is just not a good of a team. 30th in DVOA. Like, what do they do well? I don't know. Take the Andre Hopkins. That's it. Yeah, that's it. So, Pete Carroll goes, yeah, we'll take you away with our corners.

They're young. i get it but they're good and seattle just came out right i think i'll take the two points for sure but um i'm on seattle this is a square play right i mean everyone's gonna be on seattle here but i'm fine with that um they're a good football team yeah there's something like it's i'm scared this is like too easy but I'm fine with it. Like this is first of all, about 90% of the money is on the Seahawks here. And this line just keeps moving. This, I think, opened around three and didn't really move that much despite all the money,

which is a little surprising. But this is, you know, we last week we got burned by a Kingsbury trend, but I'll bring it up again this week. He's much better Kingsbury as a road underdog, as a home favorite, he's five and 11 against the spread in his career, one and four in the division that he's just, he's much better, you know, keeping a game close than actually winning a game, especially at home. Right.

In this series, Pete Carroll has done well. I think three of the last four, I want to say. Maybe three of the last five. But they, I just, I don't know. It's like every unit of Seattle I like better than I like Arizona. And I don't think that the crowd is going to be such a huge factor here. If anything, Seattle might travel. So I'm great with the Seahawks.

I feel like this is free money, which is always the kind of thing where you're like, uh-oh, what am I missing? Oh, it's NFL. I mean, Arizona could surely win this game. I'm with you. I think that the power numbers have not adjusted. In the NFL, the home field advantage is there's nothing here for them. Yeah. All right.

Well, that's good. Let's put that one in. I feel great about that with only a few games left here. Okay. The game that was supposed to be the game of the year is a game I might not even really pay attention to much, which is the Rams at the Bucs. Oh, you should.

Bucs are going to be three-point favorites because maybe, or does that mean we're wagering on Tom Brady? We are, absolutely, yeah. Fantastic. I bet this game at two and a half, like immediately Sunday night. I was shocked at this number. Okay, yes, Tampa Bay is struggling. Have you watched the Rams? Anyone watch the Rams lately? This is crazy. I was shocked at this number. Okay. Yes. Tampa Bay is struggling. Have you watched the Rams?

Anyone watch the Rams lately? This is crazy. I agree. They're all okay. The Rams this season. You ready? Points scored. Okay.

The Rams. 14, 24, 10, 9, 20, 31, and 10. They can't score. They're 32nd in EPA on offense. And Cooper Cup might play. I don't know. Maybe he doesn't play. Who knows?

Against the Tampa defense, that's still good. Yeah, the Chiefs torched them. Fine. Baltimore got after them at the end of that game. But the first three quarters, they were in that game, right? Like, the pass rush of the box is going to hit stafford the entire game and the the bucks offense it's it's close to being there right like it's close to clicking the the the play calling stinks i don't know that's gonna be fixed in this kind of

10-day window right here um but they they're close to kind of getting it right. Tom Brady's physical ability looks fine. Look, I do think that the off-the-field things being settled now will help him on the field. That's a weight that I think all of us would deal with as far as how it would affect our play and our preparation. Now that's settled, I think that makes him a better football player and it's no longer the kind of a distraction like it's just not there anymore right it's there but it's not

there right so to me like that actually makes me feel better about the Bucks this weekend uh but more than anything this is just anti-Rams like the Rams stink they're not good yeah just not good if Cooper Cup were to miss a series, if I were to tell you, hey, Cooper Cup's going to miss one series, that would probably make me auto bet the Bucs, right? Like this offense without Cooper Cup is like borderline Texans,

the way that they've played this year. Like they just, they have no running attack. They have limited production at Allen Robinson. I don't think I've seen a Tyler Higby highlight all year. And, you know, the Bucs, we can't really know what's going on in Tom Brady's mind, but we can know a couple of things about their team in general. Number one, Brady, unbelievable with extended rest. Remember, they played Thursday night.

They looked kind of terrible. It was in the middle of off-the-field stuff, obviously. So odds are he's going to play a little bit better. Granted, he hasn't totally yet. night they look kind of terrible it was in the middle of off the field stuff obviously so odds are he's going to play a little bit better granted he hasn't totally yet he only has one pick since week one though so he's obviously like been pretty good but the bucks defense has been great and i think that like when you actually look like dvoa which isn't the answer to everything they have tampa as a top 10 team they have them as a top five defense and the rams are like in the middle of the pack or even lower they're 24th in total dboa right around teams like detroit and new orleans and washington so

i just think that you're i think you're right i think this is the last line of respect for the rams that they'll get for the rest of this season and yeah i'm in sold let's do it i'm in let's do it um all right sunday Night Football. Sunday Night Football. Your Kansas City Chiefs are laying 12 points, 12 and a half points maybe even, to the Tennessee Titans. My goodness. Yeah. We talked about this game, me and you, Tech Sunday Night.

We're like, holy heck, what is this line? Man. We know that anybody's good off a bye. We know that. Tennessee this year, same as the Rams, right? Points scored, ready? 27, 24, 24, 21, 19, and 17. And Malik Wills is starting again.

He completed 10. He attempted 10 passes against Houston. He was 6 for 10. They've won five games in a row. but they played one team that's good, and they lost 41-7 to that one team. That was Buffalo. I don't want to play Kansas City here, but I don't think you can take Tennessee. I don't know what about Tennessee.

Oh, Derrick Henry, great. Okay, can you score? The Chiefs are going to score conservative. Let's say they score 28 points, Matt, right? Is Tennessee scoring 24? 20? All they'd have to score is 16. Yeah, I know.

But my point is that that's like the low end of the Chiefs scoring output, right? I'm not saying that we're playing Kansas City. I'm laying 12 and a half. I'll leave that to, to, to Nick, right. To do on a,

on a blue duck podcast, but that would be, I would go Kansas city. I'd be fine with it, but I'm not here unless you want to do it. No way. Pass. I just think,

I mean, like one turnover, if the Titans were to get the ball first and score and just like take a 10 minute drive with derrick henry like this they've basically no chance at 12 and a half i i agree i feel like this is the malik willis and like everyone knows that andy reed buys that they're like yes do it and it's just going to keep going up and up and up i think if you do like the chiefs i would put pause the podcast and bet it now because this is just going to keep going. And if you like the Titans, maybe wait until Sunday.

Isn't it wild? Tennessee is going to win the South probably and they're a 12.00 dog to Kansas City. There's not even really competition for that division, right? Jacksonville stinks. The Colts are dead. It's unbelievable.

That's all our money that we put on. Colts win the division and Titans win the division. We Colts are dead. It's unbelievable. Except all our money that we put on Colts winning the division and Titans to lose. We have $400 left. We've got to figure out a way to get some of this money back. Should we just put it all on Kenneth Walker to win rookie of the year? Should we just do that now? No, because what about injuries? That's the thing about Brees Hall.

I wonder what our odds are. Maybe Producer Hank can stop writing pointless notes about games we've talked about and can look that one up for us. I think that it would be a decent chance to hedge. Because the Brees Hall thing, Brees Hall would have won it 100%. That was a tough one. But if we can sprinkle a little 200 or something on Kenneth Walker, maybe we can. I mean, who's close?

Olave, maybe? Oh, Pierce. Pierce? We already have Pierce Oh, Pierce. Pierce. We already have Pierce. Plus 200. Interesting. We have Pierce on a different wager, though. We have the wager.

Which is a lock. 1,000 yards, yeah. Yeah, that one was the call of the year. That was so great. We're going to need somebody who's plus 700 to hit, buddy. Yeah. Why don't we, would you do 100 on Kenneth Walker plus 200? Sure.

All right. there we go. Let's put 100 on that. We do need to find what we wager. I think the Micah Parsons one was 200 bucks on him, what, plus 400 when defensive player of the year when we did it two, three weeks ago? Hank has to figure that out. That one's nice. All right, last game, Monday Night Football.

Go ahead, sir. Baltimore at New Orleans. Baltimore laying two and a half in the Superdome. I stared at this one for a long time. No, we're not doing it. Yeah, the Ravens have killed us too many times this year. It comes down to this. So we have four games in, right?

Chicago, Washington, Seattle, Tampa Bay. So the three other ones. So let's just the saints are maybe maybe i mean i guess the way we wager the saints will be the call here plus two and a half right but again like i just like i like the ravens better anyway oh you do oh okay yeah oh you want the ravens yeah Yeah, I think so. I mean, I just think that I just have no faith in the Saints team, and I feel like they're – I don't know. This line opened at one, so maybe it didn't go. I'm surprised that – I don't know. I feel like I'm on a little bit of an island with the Ravens.

It's like I feel like I just still want to take them every week because I feel like they're destined to pop one of these weeks. Every week we take them, we lose. Yeah, without Bateman and Andrews possibly compromised, it could be a little tough. every week because I feel like they're destined to pop one of these weeks. Every week we take them, we lose. Yeah. Without Bateman and Andrews possibly compromised, it could be a little tough. So we have one slot left here. And the options we have are Jacksonville plus one and a half Atlanta plus

three and a half. What are you thinking? It's gotta be Atlanta, right? I really like, I would much rather take Atlanta better number. But man, the Raiders on the road. But the problem is, I know Atlanta's plan, right? I know what they're going to do. I don't know Jacksonville's, like,

when is Trevor Lawrence going to have the bad turnover? Like, I know Atlanta's plan. They're going to run the ball. They're going to protect Moriota with easy throws. And they're going to try to slow down the Chargers passing attack with all of the guys that are hurt. But I know the plan. I can live with that plan.

The problem is, I don't know what the Jacksonville plan is. What if the Raiders just play well this week all of a sudden? Very possible. I mean, I'm trying to pretend's sunday and looking in the mirror and looking at our picks and reading all your texts about how how much idiots we are and thinking man if only we had taken blank and it's like i think i could live with atlanta getting the hook at three and a half yeah against the chargers at home instead of trusting the jaguars who every single week kill us kill everyone i think i think today wednesday i'm i'm leaning towards the falcons

at three and a half okay let's do it then so we have chicago plus five and a half hosting the dolphins washington uh new lease on life host plus three and a half hosting minnesota seattle on the road at arizona the bum-ass cardinals and i just can't i just can't i mean kingsbury is one of the sunglasses inside too the other day like coach just be good at your job like he's about to have the best job in america retired fired coach i know know, right? Tampa Bay, minus three hosting the Rams. Atlanta hosting the Chargers, plus three and a half. I'm good with that. I like those five.

I think we get three and two at least. We scratched and clawed. We've never done a five and oh week ever. Oh, that's not true. We've been there. We have because we were in the gutter last year, and then we had like one five and oh week, and we got back.

We were like seven games under 500 or something. Oh, we were, too. We might have been like like seven games under 500 or so we were doing we might have been 15 games or 500 it was like we had like we would have been like 11 and 21 it was bad at one point yeah but this year we're sticking to our plan a lot more we're sticking to our plan we're doing the right things um my favorite thing too is like when people tweet me like about our record or like man you're doing better now i'm like yeah you kind of have to like stick with someone you can't just like fade them on random weeks you want to fade me fine i mean it's be your guest but we're not bad enough to fade you might not

be good enough to win we're not that's right that's exactly right that's exactly where we want to be like we're not professionals we're're amateurs. We follow the sport. Hopefully we entertain you along the way. If you're betting with us, you're making a little bit of money. It's not much, but it's a labor of love, sports betting. Pac-12. I like Oregon State

plus the points Friday night in Seattle. Oregon is a 31-point favorite on the road to Colorado, Matt. Since 2003, how many teams do you think have been 30-point or more road favorites? Power five versus power five. It's probably a bigger number than you.

30-point road favorites? 30-plus or more, yeah, since 2003. 10. It's about 1.5 a season. It's 34. 34. And 33 of those have won the game. Only 15 have covered.

The one loss was Wisconsin to Illinois like three years ago. The loss is like 31-point favorites to Illinois. But nonetheless, I'll give you a play on this game, Matt. Oregon's first half team total is going to be about 23. Their full game is 46. I'm just going to split it in half. I would do that in a heartbeat. They're going to score a lot of points.

Colorado is 129th in the country in points per drive right now. And, but, but, but, when Oregon's up like 49 to 7, live bet the shit out of Colorado. Because Oregon allows a ton of points in the fourth quarter when they put their backups in. Telling you right now, do that. I like Arizona State plus 10.5. That's kind of where I'm at right now.

I may or may not have other ideas. I think USC probably scores a bunch of points against Cal, but we'll get to those. Maybe go to my Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz. I post my Pac-12 plays on Friday. All right, everyone. Any last words, Matt? I don't think so, buddy.

Everyone should listen to you on the Pac-12. Your splits are astonishing. Yes. I mean, you know, when you follow the conference, dude, I bet the last three weekends I have bet, the last three or four weekends, like the ugliest game, the home team getting points in the ugliest game. Like, everyone's like other direction. I've won all of them. Like you just, I mean, in a conference play, these,

the games are closer. Like they're, they're just as pride of the line. Like you take the home team plus the points, not Colorado. They're too far gone, but like most of them, like they're fighting chance. So that's what I've been doing. It pays off. All right, everyone. Talk to you guys on Tuesday. Please rate, review, subscribe. Good, chunky episode today. Congratulations, Washington football fans.

Today is your day to celebrate the changing of the ownership, most likely, of your football team. Have a good weekend, everyone. Talk to you later