Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Wild Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back and looking to keep the win streak going with wagers on all six Wild Card matchups this weekend. Plus, Matt plants his flag on the NFL being better than college football, and Geoff debates becoming an insider.Be sure to leave a rating and a comment if you enjoyed the show, and follow @geoffschwartz on Twitter to see all our live episodes during the playoffs.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 12th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz is smart you powered by the varsity podcast network we are here at the nfl playoffs 14 nfl teams in the playoffs six games this weekend wildcard weekend two saturday three sunday one on monday we'll get you prepared for all those but, I believe a little bit of bragging is in order for the pair of us. 5-0. Let's go. We went 18, 42, excuse me, 45, 42-3 on the year.

Only down, I had to ask a friend to do this calculation for me, 1.2 units if you go by just minus 110, the standard line here. We did it. We had our best year. This is our best season. This was our best season? It had to be, yeah.

No, we were pretty good a few years ago. We were just better than last year, I think. Maybe, but I'll take it. I got to say, man, like Friday or Sunday just felt like we had it. It started with the Titans on Saturday where I was just like, I demanded, demanded that we take the Titans.

And that game like went exactly as I thought it would. Like, I think it's exactly what I said. The Jags win a close game, but it's tight the whole way that the Titans don't just fall down. And as soon as that like went exactly to plan, I was like, I think,

I think we might have a good day. We might do it and then everything just kept going but it let's just put that aside it sounds like you were in cincinnati right yes i was yeah so i is it true that you had your best gambling day you've ever had oh dude i i crushed so much mostly because i kept the cowboys i have every parlay and teaser imaginable i kept out of everything i didn't include him in nothing i didn't trust him at all i really which mostly because I kept the Cowboys. I have every parlay and teaser imaginable. I kept out of everything. I didn't include him in nothing.

I didn't trust him at all. I really didn't trust the Vikings, but I hit a lot of splits. If you listen to what's happening and you kind of follow the NFL enough, like I knew because of Tom Brady, he was going to play the first half. So I took, I took Tampa first half and then I pre-bet the Falcon second half.

Done. I bet the under, I bet the unders for a bunch of second halves. I hit two, I think two or three. I was with Bill Krakenberger, who I do the radio show with. He had, and I'm giving him credit for this. He had a first score and he had three games for first score.

I hit all three of those. Bengals first score, Dolphins first score, and Bucks first score. It just was like, I hit the, again, because I kept the Cowboys at everything, man. Cowboys was the problem. I knew they were going to be an issue.

Kept them out of all of it. I hit props, man. I hit it all. And hopefully this playoffs, we have the same sort of run for you guys as well. Look, it's Wednesday as we record this. There's not a lot of props up yet. We can kind of give you an idea of how we feel about certain props or the direction that you should go, but they're not all going to be up up yet. We can kind of give you an idea of how we feel about certain props or the direction that you should go.

But they're not all going to be up quite yet. We'll kind of give you, you know, as we see fit and kind of go through that throughout our program today. We are finishing calculating up our season-long futures and props. I think if Pat Mahomes hit the MVP, Matt, we're close to breaking even, right? I think if Mahomes' MVP hits, Matt, we're close to breaking even, right? I think we're, if Mahomes MVP hits, I think we're close to being even. I actually think we might have something with a plus in front of it. If, if that's the case. I mean, when we had our misses were never like really tragic.

We just missed, we missed like a few that were every miss you feel like is moronic, but we had a couple that i think made us look really smart the thing that the thing that hooked us up was the lovey smith double agent possibility where he came in at the last minute and gave the bears the worst record which was one of our sharpest plays that one we got for bears worst record plus 750 so like you hit a few of those um and you start to look really smart we also got like towards the ends we had a few things break our way like uh the steelers going over seven and a half naji harris hitting his under the panthers going over six and a half we had two units on that like those those kinds of things like they end up paying off so i if uh if kenneth walker

wins rookie of the year we're looking at something really good i think um which he might i guess i i mean brock purdy maybe but i think uh i think we ended up having a pretty good year um when it actually is all said and done uh yes and um we we got we had we did get a little a couple a couple lucky breaks here and there in our futures, but we also the other way, right? But we had the plus 700 Texans running back wager that failed because Pierce didn't play the second half of the season where we lost four games.

But Gabe Davis, he had like four touchdowns the first week of the season, and somehow he went under seven as well. Tyreek Hill, somehow under seven and a half. We had a hit and it was seven. somehow under seven and a half we had we had to hit it with seven we had seven and a half for him um so we just ended up kind of hitting some of these so it's fun fun exercise to do uh we'll take you now into the postseason before we get to uh the the overall kind of each game this weekend i want to give you one future I like, okay? It's heading into the postseason. The Bengals are anywhere from like plus 1,000 to plus 750 to win the Super Bowl.

I think that's a really good wager. I know they have to go through Buffalo and Kansas City. I get that. But I think they're the best team in the AFC right now. And they won two road games last year to get there. And they won two road games last year to get there. And they are going to play a Buffalo team that can be consistent at times and a Chiefs team they own. I think that's a good number, Matt.

I think that's a pretty good number for you won't get that number if you bet the money line as they're both underdogs against Buffalo and Kansas City, I don't think. So that's a good number right now, in my opinion, You bet the money line. And is there both underdogs against Buffalo and Kansas city? I don't think so. That's a good number right now, in my opinion, for the, for just as a future for the super bowl,

I took it already myself. I can always hedge out of it, obviously. But I got a plus 800. I'm glad to take it. It's that's interesting because you've been up and down on them all year. I agree. I think they're the scariest team. They might end up getting a really nice first round

matchup. So Buffaloes, we'll get to in a minute. I kind of think there's... I'm struggling to see a world where San Francisco doesn't win the NFC. That's the thing that I kind of keep coming back to. Philly, if Jalen Hurts were to make a full, full recovery, they did not look great last week. Granted, it's the second time they played the Giants. Granted, you know, Jalen Hurts isn't all the way there.

They get the bye, whatever. San Francisco looks absolutely unbelievable. They have a very favorable matchup this week that we'll get to. You know, they probably would avoid Philly and until the next round they match up beautifully with minnesota um if they were to get them i just think that san francisco they're the favorite obviously but i'm sort of wondering like what what other value there even is in the nfc like who could who can realistically there's no look okay. The other one is Tampa plus 2,500 to win the Super Bowl.

We'll talk about this game, of course. This is kind of the big picture stuff. I'm sure we'll repeat it again. Okay, so let's say Tampa gets back some of their offensive linemen. Tristan Wirfs and Jonathan Smith, okay? Smith's played most of the year, been out a little bit.

Wirfs, ankle injury. Let's say they're back. And let's say Ryan Jenton somehow comes back. I don't know his status. Your offensive line's kind of whole again, right? Your offensive line's much better now. And are you counting out Tom Brady? Are you counting out Tampa Bay right now?

Like, let's say they figure out offensively. Let's just say for some miraculous reason, in this playoff stretch, they figure out how to run their offense more effectively less running game more tom brady more play action pass are you telling me they can't they can beat dallas we know that they can they can beat philly they can't be philly be tough be tough but are we counting on tom brady no never i don't so to me in the nfc maybe wager on the niners as a future and the Bucs. The thing with the Niners, though,

is that they has never been a rookie quarterback to play the Super Bowl. I don't know if Brock Purdy is the guy who's going to break that. We'll see, obviously, as we continue to go. So you ready to kind of knock some of these out, buddy? Yeah, and to that point, I mean, you look at these NFC quarterbacks

and you go down the list other than Brady, obviously. Is the next most trustworthy one Cousins? Honestly, Hurts, we've seen him in the playoffs once. It was a loss to Tom Brady. We've not seen any of these guys before go on the road or play in an NFC championship and win. And even some of these coaches, like there's a lot of,

you know, Kevin O'Connell, let's see how he does in a playoff game. Let's see, you know, Mike McCarthy, that's kind of joke at this point. Like,

but day ball, he's never coached in a playoff game before. Like, let's see if Nick Sirianni can be a one seat. Like there's the NFC is, is such a wide open conference that it just it feels like san francisco is unstoppable but i do wonder tampa you made a great case they're obviously one that it seems like when you have the greatest player of all time you take a number like plus 2500 no

matter what but you almost think like okay so if you're saying that san francisco is not winning like it doesn't really make sense to me to bet the eagles it makes more sense to me almost to bet like the vikings or i mean i wouldn't do this but like the cowboys like one of these teams that if everything were to break right maybe um but i just i don't know i also think that just betting san francisco to you know play kansas city or buffalo or c Buffalo or Cincinnati in the Super Bowl, depending on how you think that's going to shake out, also is a really good value. But I don't know.

It's going to be fascinating. Maybe that's enough for clearing and we can just get to the games. But anything else you want to add to that? No, I'm with you there. I think we're kind of in the same boat, just like a little lack of distrust when it comes to a lot of the NFC teams right now. Like there's just like a, we just kind of don't, don't trust them. I feel like we, there's more trust on the AFC side because the quarterbacks are just better.

And that's why there's just more faith in that. Yeah. The AFC playoffs. I mean, they're both going to be super fascinating to watch. Well, I have one more question about Brock Purdy. And so why don't we just get to the first game, which is Saturday, 430 Eastern Seahawks at Niners. Obviously, the third team they played the third time they played this year. As we're taping this, I'm seeing nine and a half mostly.

It's danced around 10 all week. So, I mean, oh, and by the way, we should mention, I think we're going to try to go head to head. I have a feeling we're going to end up probably having a lot of the same picks. Look, okay. I know that this industry that we're in, the wagering industry, the podcast industry, that you have to make a pick for every game. No. No.

Like, no. No. I'll give you my opinion on the game. I'll tell you where I'm leaning. But, like, there's games in here I don't want to wager on. Yeah. I'm not going to give you a pick. I know we're supposed to.

No, no. We'll tell you how we feel. I can say, hey, I'm going to wager on this in real life. Or I'm not going to wager this in real life. Here's what I'm thinking right now on Wednesday, right? Things could change. Here's a fun teaser I want to do. I'm sure I'll do a teaser this weekend.

Yep. But, and I will 100% do like a do like a bills bangles money line parlay just pay it pays out two to one right let's go one to two one to two right yeah like i don't care i'll do one of those but like i'm not going to wager on some of these games because we are doing competition i'm gonna tell you how i feel and if i want to wager on it if i think it's good i'll tell you if not uh we'll pass on it so uh with that in mind um let's talk a little bit about how secure jeff is in himself but i feel the same way like i don't need to come here and be like i'm smarter than jeff i am not smarter than jeff but we will both be betting these games and i'm happy to give you my opinion so okay for example the niners game is nine and a. I like Geno Smith under his passing number.

It's at 223.5, at least according to the book that I see right now. Geno Smith, the last – I don't think a player has cost himself more money in the last month than Geno Smith. Like, he was at a point halfway through the season where MVP, he hated, oh my God, Geno Smith. Seattle hasn't played well. They have not played well.

They have lost five, five of the last eight games, okay? The three wins they have, Rams twice and Jets. Gino Smith has thrown for his last five games. A loss here in Charlotte to the Panthers. No, a loss at home to the Panthers. 246, 264, then 238, 215, 183, 213. One of those games, by the way, the first Niners game, really second of the season, I should say, 238.

I think Geno Smith will have a hard time throwing the ball in this game because they will rush the passer like crazy, as we've seen. And Seattle's offense kind of continually is sort of ticking downwards, Matt, a little bitva gets worse each week the dpa gets worse each week i like you know smith under the passing number here um it's a little bit of juice here on this wager but that's how my first on this game is take gino smith under that's a really interesting way to play it um so this game is this game is unbelievable like if you had told me that brock purdy would be facing geno smith in a playoff game and it would probably be one of the more entertaining games the weekend is it's not you know i guess brock is the third stringer

like it's unbelievable um both of them are making their first playoff starts a little bit i guess not that surprising for genino um but you know just kind of interesting because in general first time playoff quarterbacks tend to not um do super well in their first week uh home favorites the first time starting quarterbacks as home favorites are 6 and 16 against the spread since 2002 again that's thanks to our friend evan at the action network um and rookie quarterbacks are 3-10 straight up in the playoffs since 1990. So not great trends for Brock Purdy, but when you go against Geno Smith, who has never started in the playoffs either, you have to wonder what of that gets

thrown out. I think if I had to just make a pick here, I'm probably going to take San Francisco with the points. Just because, uh a last year you know the the wild card weekend last year was pretty much all chalk um last year the bangles covered six the bills blew out the pats the bucks blew out the eagles the cowboys ironically were the only team to not cover the Chiefs and the Rams blew out the Steelers and the Cardinals um 49ers beat the Cowboys straight up so in the past it does feel like you get to this week and you're like cool so the seven-seeded Seahawks have to go to San Francisco and play a playoff team that's like looking to make a Super Bowl run and these seven seeds and six seeds just don't belong so I think that that's probably what's going to happen across the,

in both conferences. So, you know, if I had to lay the points, I'd do it. This is a great teaser game. There's going to be a few. I think that's probably the way I would do it.

But nine, you do a seven point on this one, right? Yeah, I think so. But when you're talking about, you know, the,

the bill spread, I mean, they're not a great teaser candidate because I can't imagine that being a close game, but maybe, but you know, you could do like mean they're not a great teaser candidate because i can't imagine that being a close game but maybe um but you know you could do like a three-team seven-point teaser um but i i like your individual player prop i didn't really think much about those yeah um well they're not typically up on wednesdays like that's something that maybe has the playoffs they're up but normally we're on wednesday not recording these with with any sort of player prop availability one thing to note, and I have

bet the under in this game as well as a Geno Smith prop, it's supposed to rain and be windy in San Francisco. Really Santa Clara. So as of right now, rain throughout the entire game and wind about 10 to 11 miles an hour. So

I always kind of just choose the under and rainy windy games. And this could be a run the ball game and uh so that's where i'm looking not yet you're you're playing the if you're playing the nine and a half i guess i mean sure um but the teaser or a money line parlay again i mean those don't always hit. But there's, I think, a good option to make that play if you would like to put the Niners in one this weekend. It's also kind of crazy. No rookie quarterback has ever run to the Super Bowl.

You'll be hearing that every time the 49ers are on the field. Ben Roethlisberger, I think, got the closest. But the 49ers are getting Elijah Mitchell back and they're getting Debo Samuel back. Maybe not this week, but at some point, like a Matt, like their, their team is just absolutely unbelievable.

And I, who knows, man, maybe they were, you know, that saying, if they were an injury away from being a Superbowl team, like I can't imagine Trey Lance would have led this team this far.

And Brock Purdy is in such a good spot. It's this, this Brock Purdy is in such a good spot. This Brock Purdy thing is unreal. I don't think we're talking about it a lot because it just seems so obvious that the 49ers were going to be good. But this could be like an all-time sports story, and it could start right here. Don't take Seattle. That's what I would recommend.

Play it any other way. By the way, a three-te three team seven point teaser pays plus 120 if you want to do niners bills bangles i also think bucks going to like nine and a half is not a bad wager either if you want to put a that's not bad either um so yeah if you're thinking that that direction uh plus uh plus 120 um all right let's move the next one yeah this is i think probably the maybe the most unpredictable game of the weekend um wow this has moved since we even started it's chargers jags this is saturday night at 8 15 eastern um the chargers right now are road favorites this is bounced around a bit now it's i'm seeing it at two most places um let's see are

you what side are you on here um i'm not sure i'm on any side um i think i would lean jacksonville here just just a little bit um and that might just be my hatred for brendan staley and just the way that his arrogance he goes about talking to us about football like buddy you didn't have to play your starters like we pay attention to football like that you don't have to do that we're not like don't pretend that you have some cockamamie excuse the giants didn't play anybody like you have to play your starters as long as that like don't we're not stupid coach um but i think you know this sounds weird to say that i trust a team who, in Jacksonville, wasn't supposed to be here, who's not as talented, who won a game the other day with negative one yards in the fourth quarter. But I just do.

I trust Doug Peterson, and Doug Peterson is a better football coach than is Brandon Staley. And they're a little bit healthier. Like Michael Williams did not practice today. It's not the be-all end-all he might practice this week. Bosa was a little nicked up last weekend as well. I just trust the Jags more in this spot. I just don't trust the Chargers as much. Do you have a thought on it?

I think I actually go the other way, where I think I distrust the overall skill of um of the charges across the board than the jags and you know i think you know the argument of well you know the jags haven't really beaten anybody they play in this cushy division in the last you know for the last five weeks they've played the jets the texans titans twice without a quarterback. They beat Dallas. But the Chargers haven't played anybody either. Their best games of the year were losses. I just think that the Chargers have this other gear. They're basically two even teams. They're two guys who

haven't been in the playoffs before. I think this is probably going to be an explosive, outside, fun, crazy, chaotic game. And in that situation, I do think Herbert is still the better quarterback. He's got the better weapons. He's got Rashawn Slater maybe coming back. I don't think he's going to be back this week, but they have strong protection up

front they have a good better probably a better pass rush i just think they're a better team all around and i don't know i i'm it's crazy to lay it with the chargers but they're a team that's obviously comfortable playing in unfamiliar environments since even their home games are so it's you know it's essentially i think they're basically saying the chargers are four or five points better than the jags i think they are um so i'm comfortable laying it based basically a pick them uh with with the chargers well you know you make some good points um i think doug pearson's experience in the playoffs is so important here i think that matters too and um i think he's gonna coach circles around

brandon staley who i just don't think a football coach i think the chargers fans would almost rather lose this game and say he gets fired then win this game and have staley you know he kind of cements um you know that he knows what he's doing i guess which i don't think he does yeah i mean does yeah i mean it's it's really i man it is it is hard to go against such a massive uh coaching advantage um but i just yeah i don't know i think uh if herbert's the guy that everyone says he is then this is a very wonderful playoff game agreed i think jacksonville is one of the shakiest teams in this playoffs that's healthy um you know they've they've just they've been shaky and in games even that they've won there have been these moments where they look like they're going to give the game away and i think part of that is like you know it's third and seven you're gonna find zay jones in the playoffs like

that's what we're talking about here like no that's fair yeah keenan allen mike williams they're better off austin eckler like they have so many and it's like you know we're talking about like gerald everett would be like the top target on the jaguars like they they really are loaded in terms of offense and the chargers are one of those teams where it's like if they can just stay out of their own way which has never been the case for them as an organization like they are a team that could go on a run like they have the quarterback they have the tools around them they're they're like i mean if mike williams is back like they seem to be kind of healthy for the most part like i don't know they they're remember at the beginning of the season people were saying

they had the best roster in the whole league like it they could regress to like just being as good as as they can be here um one thing i will caution people on there's going to be a lot of wagers out there for austin eckler for uh rushes and receiving yards right like how many touches he gets he has not gotten more than he had 22 he's not had more than 22 touches, whether via rush and receiving, in months. I think don't take the bait on it. Just don't take the bait on whatever it's going to be, his rushing and receiving numbers, combined rushes and receptions, yards. Just don't take the bait on whatever it's going to be. His rushing and receiving numbers, combined rushes and receptions, yards, just don't take the bait. He really has not had as many yards as we think.

He's second player in NFL history to have, I think, over 100 catches, but have less than 1,000 yards. So he had 107 catches this year for only 722 yards. That's crazy. Jeez.

So just like, don't take the bait on that for this game, my opinion. Huh. That's a great, that's a great stat. Okay. So you're, are you, did I talk you into the chargers or are you, are you laying off? Oh, I, in this game, I'm staying away from any of the lines. I would lean Jacksonville,

but this is like a, maybe a live wager opportunity for me. Again me again there's i think props you can find um you know in in here as well um that you know could suit what you want to do um but i i don't feel comfortable about wagering much in this game okay um okay well this one'll certainly have a money line bet. We'll see if we like either side here. Uh, the dolphins are going to Buffalo. Um, we're seeing 12 and a half, 13, 13 and a half. Um, as we record this on Wednesday, uh, the news this morning, of course, is Tua is not going to be playing in this game. Um, it looks like it's going to be Skylar Thompson, I think. Is that right? Is that the latest info? Yes, yes. I mean, I think I'm insanely comfortable laying two touchdowns with Buffalo

against Skylar Thompson. Absolutely. I think that's – I actually am surprised it's this low. And I know that that's like a very square opinion. But, like, what are we talking about here? Oh, yeah, agreed. I'm doing a heartbeat. I think it's the right play to make.

Skyler Thompson, he couldn't move the ball last weekend against the Jets at home. What are they going to do against Buffalo in Buffalo? You're only hoping this game is that Josh Allen throws some more weird red zone interceptions to keep this game close yeah they pull them or something like i get there's gonna be number you have to you have to you have to um you have to take the bills or nothing else in this game maybe even look to dolphins team total under if you don't feel comfortable with that i'm not i

could probably find that number for you right now um but you you just can't take you can't take miami here like what's your what's your case for miami there's no case for miami yeah i don't think they have other than maybe yeah that's they don't have an advantage anywhere they also just like they looked like a dead team last week and i know that's kind of a flat point, but like. They want they ended up winning by five, right, but they just they just did not look like they were dialed into that game. I think even if Teddy came in, who we love, the line would change. I still would be on Buffalo like Buffalo has all of the wind at their backs. i still would be on buffalo like buffalo has all the wind at their backs um you know they got some jitters out of the way last week new england was playing for their lives and they kept it close but

eventually like that game didn't feel close by the end of it buffalo covered seven or seven and a half whatever um i just i think buffalo is they're they are built for this miami is on their last legs this could this feels like one of those wild card games where you look up and you're like jeez i can't believe i like i can't believe there's only one game on this game's this game's been over since the second quarter um it might be that might be a tough one to watch so this feels like a lot like the georgia tcu game where you're like can i really lay the 13 and a half of georgia but you knew deep down inside it was going that direction yeah this feels like this game right here like you know deep down where this is going and it's going to end up with the bills georgia kicking the butts of a team who's not as talented

tcu the dolphins yeah um oddly uh you know this is one of those trends that shouldn't matter but the bills have been very good the week after playing the patriots seven and two straight up six two and one against the spread must mean i don't know they've also dominated the patriots maybe they just are confident um this also is another talk about a live wager this season you've read a lot probably about buffalo being a great second half team if this game is like oh it's only seven or ten like maybe this is actually going to be kind of a close game and i should get out of my minus 14 bet i would say go the other way that this could be a total pull away this is also if you remember in buffalo runs in the last few years like towards the end of the season they've started to and they did it this year and they it was it wasn't just one guy like it was the end of the season, they've started to, and they did it this year and they,

it was, it wasn't just one guy. Like it wasn't a single Terry, but like they've started to figure out the run. Not Dalvin. James Cook has looked really good. Single Terry's look good. That offensive line is,

is coming into shape. Like I have a feeling like they're, they're not going to open the bag up on this one, especially knowing they're looking ahead to their schedule and what might be a surreal game the following week. But I really think that uh buffalo is is gonna just take this one from from the jump and i'm fine with 14 here i'm i'm fine if i'm buffalo first half like just give me give me all give me all those wagers fine with it all the way definitely second half um all right so that's that game uh the next game the next two are the really or two

of the next three are really fun ones giants and vikings uh the vikings are three point favorites at home i have a feeling this is going to be the one of the ones you like the the problem with this one is everyone's taking the giants everyone is mad is, Matt. Every single person is going to pick them to win. And that makes me think the Vikings are going to win this game. I'm 100% with you. Yep. Like, every single person is going to come on these shows this weekend and tell you the Giants are winning this game.

I've written about it. I've said the Giants are going to win this game. But are they really? Like, this is the game in the playoffs where we're like oh oh that that happened right i mean minnesota guys is 27th in dva they're 20 on offense 27 and 30 on defense they're not good they're 13 and 3 with a minus, I think, three, four-point differential. They've won 11 of 13 games by eight points or less. In the four games they lost, they got their asses kicked.

27-3, 40-3, 41-17, lost the Lions by 11. They're not very good, but I just think it's too trendy. It's too trendy for me to take the Giants to this spot. I couldn't agree more. I really think, you know, the Giants, the reason that you've wanted to bet them all season is they've been kind of underrated. They're feisty. They keep games close.

Like, Minnesota is not a great team, but Minnesota can do one thing, and that's score a shitload of points and the giants defense has been tough um but now they have to deal with they have to deal with justin jefferson they have to they like they're gonna have to figure out a way to score 20 30 points in this game uh in an indoor dome like it's not an outdoor grinded out environment yeah if the vikings have some answer for barkley then this turns into like well how else do the giants win this game there's a lot of ways the vikings can win this game uh even their like kicking woes which have been killing

them all season have sort of oh boy start knocking something have started to look a little bit better in the last few weeks um i just think that the this is one of those that you skim it and you're like yep giants that's my that's my money line underdog bet of the week um point differential thing which is just like whatever the the vikings got blown out a couple times like i think that stats a little bit a little bit of a red herring i think this is a really safe play minnesota minus three this could look stupid in a week but give me the better quarterback the better skill position players across the board not the better coach but a really good home crowd and a team that's been in the playoffs like a team that if i'm not mistaken won a game last

were they in it last year it was two years ago two years ago like most of this team has been there two years ago they won yeah they yeah they tend to like as much as people are like oh i got a chance to bet against kirkousins in the playoffs, he's been okay. And reminder, this is Daniel Jones' first playoff game. It's a great chance to bet against Daniel Jones in the playoffs. Minnesota, sorry, last thing. The other thing here is everyone's been betting the Giants.

All of the money is on the Giants, and the line hasn't moved, which is usually a sign of like Vegas feels kind of okay about where this is. So in that case, I do think you feel pretty comfortable

with Minnesota. I'm with you. I agree. It's a straight like contrarian bet, basically. For all the reasons

you've said and that's the way I'd play it, man. I'm 100% how I play this one is you take the Vikings because of the reasons you've said, and that's the way I play it, man. I'm 100% how I play this one, is you take the Vikings because of the reasons you mentioned, and you just fade the public in this game where every single person is going to pick against the Vikings. Yep. I think that's the move.

Yeah. Okay, so I have four favorites. You're with me on Minnesota, and I think you're with me on Buffalo as a pick. Yes, yes. Buffalo is an amazing teaser candidate. I think as well as the favorite in this is also a really good teaser candidate, and that is the Bengals, who we're going to say are 7 or 7.5 against the Ravens. Can we pause here and talk briefly about Lamar

Jackson please so he is officially questionable um he's still coming back from a PCL sprain which you know has varying recovery times here we are in the playoffs no sign of him not a whole lot of reporting on that's like well lamar is doing everything he can to get back on the field like last week it seems there's there's been a fair amount of reporting that says like this is a real injury and he's working hard and he doesn't want to go out there and not look 100 percent um i just am curious what your read on this situation is and if you think he's going to play this week or frankly ever again as a raven yeah um my read and i saw i saw jim trotter talk about his knee injury and that he's had players you saw that so the point he had a player come to him telling him PCL

varies from player to player and that he wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those where it just takes longer to heal and he's not 100% so he's not going to play and not try to, you know, go 100% which I totally get but the thing about it is

sometimes your franchise quarterback kind of plays through some injuries every now and then, right during the playoffs. And again, I'm not saying that Lamar injuries is he's faking it or he's not, not fighting through it. I'm sure he's battling every day to play,

but the Ravens are going to feel some sort of way. If he doesn't play in this game, there's two years of run on, he ended on injury reserve and it cost the team a chance at you know posting success now you can make the case that this is the reason why they should resign lamar is it hasn't worked but you also make the case if you're going to spend x amount of money on a quarterback and he ends the season two years in a row missing the last six games of each of them yeah yeah okay see you later buddy later, buddy. We'll find someone else, right? You can make that case as well.

So this line is set up certainly to where he's not playing this game. You'll take the Bengals here, absolutely. Do you think this time Baltimore is done? I think it's trending in the direction where a franchise tag has more of an option than is a long-term contract. Unless he doesn't want to be there. It's so interesting. I mean, I listened to Schrager say this in a few places. Like he doesn't, he doesn't have the agent.

He's not like a really public figure. It's not a guy who like, you know, I feel like I know it's like, I can't even really picture what his voice sounds like. Like I can picture what Josh Allen and Holmes and Burrow sound like. I feel like we don't hear a lot from Lamar. We don't really know what he's up to I think he's

definitely like still recovering from this injury I think it was like week 13 maybe that he got it and I think that he's rightfully really nervous about going out there and not looking very good and then being like cool so my options are get the franchise

tag or you know go out in the open market somehow maybe the Ravens say like we're not really interested in paying you you know a quarter of our cap figure it out and him not getting a great deal and this huge bet he made on himself not looking great I think it's a really tough spot for him and I don't know if like in a week he's gonna just like look good I think he's a really tough spot for him. And I don't know if like in a week, he's going to just like look good. I think he's, it's concerning because look at Jalen hurts last week. Like he wasn't a hundred percent.

He looked fine, but he doesn't have this huge contract looming over his head at the moment. And people are sort of willing to forgive a few, you know, passes that were a little inaccurate and could write those off because he had such a great season. Lamar wasn't really having a great season to begin with, at least after the first few weeks.

So I think this is a really tricky situation. Baltimore is the kind of – Harbaugh is the kind of coach that will always have a team ready at the provisional game, no matter who the quarterback is. Like, I feel like it's probably going to be close. I don't think it's going to be close. But, I feel like it's probably going to be close. I don't think it's going to be close. But, I mean... Baltimore has scored...

So, Lamar got hurt against the Broncos in Week 13. They won that game 10-9, if you remember, right? The next week, they scored 16 points to beat the Steelers. Then 3, 17, 16, excuse me,

17, 13, 16. They can't score without him. It's the biggest reason he just goes in there after the season to the front of the general manager, plops down the stats. He says, look, you guys cannot play without me. Sign me to a deal or I'm

gone. Like, I... I... He's with their offense, man. And they started Anthony Brown at quarterback. The third string. They're not even starting Tyler Huntley. Anthony Brown. He was at Oregon last year, buddy.

I, like, come on, man. Like, there's no, there's just no, no. I watched him play all last season. They're not going to score any points, dude. They're not going to score any points. I, back at the Lamar thing, I really do believe, 80 points, dude. I don't score any points. Back on the Lamar thing, I really do believe,

and I'm not the only person to say this, that the Deshaun Watson contract has really screwed up his negotiation. The Ravens don't want... No one in the NFL wants to pay Deshaun Watson guarantees to anybody. And they're saying like, yeah, we're not going to do it. We're going to give you

what Russell Wilson got or what Kyler Murray got. And Russell Wilson taking less guaranteed money than Deshaun Watson hurts that as well, but they're just not going to do it. And so if you're hoping to get that money, maybe someone else will give it to you, but I don't know who's giving you $231 million guaranteed. I really don't.

No. And he's better than Deshaun Watson, by the way. Like, he's better than sean watson by the way like he's better like he deserves more money the browns made a historic error there and i think it will end up they sort of like didn't get the i mean they got plenty of heat for it but then it kind of went away during the season because the sean wasn't out there but that is really going to look terrible um especially when whatever lamar's deal is or whoever's next ends up signing something that's like completely different um oh it looks terrible already yeah absolutely man i i feel like with huntley with huntley i would with huntley but

he's not playing it's anthony brown humbly is not practicing right now he's not no you're you're positive about that yes man so all right so this is in short this is a stay away for now he said lamar jackson is mr 16th straight practice tyler humbley 10 nights in right shoulder do not throw a pass during media viewing of wednesday's practice okay so huntley will probably play but we don't know that now. So this is a stay away for now with a if if Huntley plays, I think I would take the seven and a half. I'm a little curious why this maybe the play is to just find a seven and bet this. Although now I'm seeing that it's actually closer to eight and a half since we started recording this. So this is a stay away for now. This is a great Cincy teaser game

because I don't see them losing it. But it's probably a Cincy either way, but you have to know who the quarterback is before you put your money on it. One thing to note, I was looking up some props for this game, quarterback props. Joe Burrow, he didn't play terrible

against the Ravens on Sunday. He's going to have a much better game. He threw for 215 yards on Sunday. The first Ravens game, he threw for 217. Remember last year, he torched the Ravens. He had like 900 yards of the Ravens last season in two games. Yeah, got Wayne Martindale fired. Yeah, so.

By the way, you can bet against him when you bet the Vikings this weekend as well. Yeah, 525 against Baltimore and then 416. So they found a way to contain Joe Burrow more than other teams have. So I wonder if there's a Joe Burrow under play here at some point as you study these throughout the week. Interesting about Burrow with the Ravens. He, before last week, they didn't cover that. I guess it depends what closing line you got

because i think i got they were at seven in the contest i think um but anyways before that they had won and covered seven straight against uh against all their opponents he's done really well against uh baltimore in the past he's good in the cold he's he's undefeated against his brand in the playoffs all the things line up for cold. He's undefeated against his Brett in the playoffs. All the things line up for taking Burrow. This line where it's... I'm tempted to just grab it now, and even if it's Huntley, they could still cover it. It's not like Huntley's Brett Favre. Very strange.

Very strange year. I think this is kind of the worst case scenario for Lamar if he had been given all the outcomes. Okay. The probably most entertaining game of the week is Monday night, Dallas at Tampa. Dallas as a road favorite against Tom Brady. Do you want to do the honors?

Of taking the Buccaneers? Of course. Yeah. I feel like three would have been much better than two and a half. Yeah, the Bucs is the only play here. And this is kind of the opposite of what we said with the Giants-Vikings, where you just take the contrarian play and take the Vikings. The Bucs, everyone's betting on the Bucs in this game.

I think rightfully so. The Cowboys this season, the frustrating part about them is they're a very talented team. They're very talented. And it's frustrating because they play like they're not as talented, right? Dak Prescott has not been as good down the stretch. Their defensive line, their defense, not as good down the stretch. They played a Washington Commanders team

who was playing Sam Howell and then had to play Tyler Heineke. And Dallas wasn't competitive the entire game. Dallas played their starters. They're trying to win that game, Matt. They're playing for the one seed, really the two seed, the NFC East at that point. And they laid a big fat egg.

And I just don't, I don't know how you trust them right now. By the way, the commanders, if Carson Wentz doesn't play a single snap this season, they're a playoff team. It's kind of a bummer if you're a commanders fan and you know, I'm right about it.

We talked about this the other day. Carson Wentz might be one of the few quarterbacks who has just single handedly ruined every team he's been on. It's, it's just not good. No one believes in that guy at all. Yeah, so Tampa's the play here. I mentioned at the top, right?

Tampa, if they figure out the play sequence in, if they're not so predictable on offense, man, defense can still play. Coaching staff, I'm not quite sure about. But with Tom Brady, a healthier offensive line, dude, they're going to make plays. They're going to make plays.

And just the Cowboys are just so untrustworthy, man. I give me Tampa here. I'll take it on the money line. Just straight up. I a hundred percent agree. I, I am a little wary of the light of the conversation being so one dimensional

of like, well, Dallas sucked last week because like, okay. But it is concerning if only because i mean dak prescott has just flat out not been good this season and last week it felt like washington could have had three pick sixes they did have one but it did feel like dak the cowboys roster of course they're talented but it's not a deep roster and if you're able to take away CeeDee Lamb a bit then all of a sudden you're like okay so Gallup and Schultz

and Pollard okay like it's not a dominant offense Micah Parsons we bet him to win defensive player of the year midway through the season thinking that was a stone cold lock I feel like I haven't thought about Micah Parsons since then like he hasn't been that disruptive player that he was maybe there's a little injured or something I don't know um but Washington's offensive line is no no hogs um and they dallas didn't ever really feel like they were getting pressure in sam al's face maybe it's just that maybe it's just last week um but even the titans game the week before like that game felt closer than the score actually was they just kind of have been lackadaisical they had the great game against philly um but that was Minshew. They lost to the Jags. They've had like a very oddly soft schedule since they blew out Minnesota

back in November. Then they beat the Giants on Thanksgiving. But remember, they beat the Colts by a thousand. They beat Texans. Barely. They lost to Jacksonville. Yeah.

Minshew. They barely, you know, they beat the Titans and they got blown out by the commanders. And it's like, this is a team. I mean, Tampa,

on the other hand, is not a team that's looked all that great. Their best game of the season was when it mattered. Granted, it was against Carolina. But I just don't think there is a world. You remember last year, Tom Brady last year against the Rams. They were down by what, 20? Like, they were just completely out of that game. And Tom Brady, they came all the way back they ended up covering um and he like he just willed them to a result

that wasn't completely humiliating that is what's going to happen here if dallas takes a lead and i just i just don't think that dallas has the mental makeup of a team that's going to go on the road and win a playoff game against a team that, for all their warts, is a physical team, still has a 104 net, still has Mike Evans, but more importantly has Tom Brady. And most of the coaching staff that was there only won the Super Bowl. I think this is – we could be wrong, but I just feel like this is a must smash for Tampa. It is a must smash, and I agree with everything you said. And we have done this show now for like three years together. We've known each other since 2017. We sort of have, I think, a rule.

Like just don't bet against Tom Brady in the playoffs. Just don't do it. Like, if you stick to that rule, you'll win a lot of football games if you're wagering on them. He's getting points at home. He gets a team that, as you mentioned, all the flaws they have. Now, Tampa surely has flaws.

But also, too, like, if you're a Cowboys fan, you're hoping they lose to replace Mike McCarthy. Like, you're not even almost rooting for your team to win this game, right? Like, you want to find Sean Payne, who's got three interview requests, by the way. We were doing this. The Cardinals want to interview him. Texans, someone else. I'm with you, man.

I am on the books here. If they can get Ryan Jensen back, to, and he can put back at center. Um, things could change. Am I, okay. Am I a good friend? Because I could just ask him that,

but I just don't like, should I use my, my influence with friends of mine to be like, yo, you playing this week? Like, like what's, or should I,

or I don't really do that. I don't like, I don't hit up people for inside information. I just don't, I don't really do that i don't like i don't hit up people for inside information i just don't i don't really care i wish i cared i could use my powers for my knowing everyone powers for a lot of cool things but am i a good friend for that or should i just ask him if he's playing this week i think if you tell him that you're trying to report something and to ask for help like hey i'd love to report it could i help break could i help put out the news no no no i think you know i think you do the opposite you're like i just want to know if you're playing this weekend like not like not at all trying to report it just personal just like yo

buddy how you feeling so then you would just text me and be like hey this is happening yes i think it's almost more ethical the other way to just be like hey man like i'm still you know you know what i'm trying to do like but i'm not a newsbreaker that's the thing but you but that's okay i'll tell you i'll tell you a story about i'll tell you a story about right ryan actually i i would have made a lot of money in the bucks winning the super bowl that year they won it because ryan told me like 48 hours beforehand that tom brady was coming to tampa i was like get out of here buddy do you remember that whole story about the tom brady was like went to a dinner in tampa bay with like the owner and like burn steakhouse yeah and ryan told me that story he's like yo he's been here i'm telling you like he's been in tampa he signed with him today i was

like i'm not reporting that first of all and i don't still believe you i don't believe you he's like all right just watch and he was right and i i was like plus three thousand to win the super before he went there. I hit it at plus 1,200, so I'll take the money. But man, yeah, he, you know, of course, you know, the center knows everything.

Interesting. I feel like I could do that all the time. I could find out probably if Wayne Johnson might play in a couple of weeks. I just don't do that. I just don't use my poll like that, man. Maybe I should. I don't think Wayne Johnson's going to play.

I don't think, I think he's going to try to play. Like, Rashawn Slater is back at practice. Dude, the offensive line community is thick. We are thick. We're thick boys. We're thick as well. More ways than one.

A couple of fun trends here to cap this conversation. Dak Prescott, did you see this in the doc? He's played four playoff games. Guess how many of them he's covered zero zero yeah uh Mike McCarthy just 500 in the playoffs is a favorite better as a dog six and two Dak uh Tom Brady you'll hear this all broadcast never lost to Dallas undefeated against Dak, obviously. As a home dog, he's 10-2. His only two against the spread losses

were Manning and Burrow. Like, those are... Okay, so I will say, I will say, Burrow, when he was, you know he was a Burrow. This season as a home dog.

In the game we watched together. Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay, the only thing I will say about Tom Brady-Trents is that a lot of them were when he was in Tampa, everybody. So just be careful. Be careful with that.

But at some point, it's not a small sample size. It's a track record. Oh, I know. When it comes down to, hey, it's fourth and six. Oh, I trust him. I'm betting Tom Brady's going to make it. Yes, absolutely. And this idea of being the underdog, man,

it is the best motivator in sports. You saw it for the Georgia one the other day. Yeah. it like they thought we'd be seven and five but we proved him wrong what who thought you'd be seven and five no yeah seriously no one thought you're seven and five yeah on our podcast the day after the championship last year you were like georgia's gonna win it again next year um and georgia by, is going to win it again in 2023. Have you seen their schedule next season? Yeah, it's absurd. For those who haven't seen, by the way,

I know we're kind of bouncing around here. Okay. They open up with the UT Martin Skyhawks. Ooh, hum, babe. Ball State. And these are both at home, obviously. South Carolina at home. UAB. So the first month of the season they're at home. Trent Dilfer, let's go the season they're at home Trent Dilfer let's go then they're at Auburn

who should be better this year but not probably with Hugh Freeze quite there yet Kentucky at home at the Commodores

of Vanderbilt off the Commodantes play the Gators in a cocktail party Missouri Ole Miss at Tennessee

that'd be tough Tennessee and then at Georgia Tech with a new coach Brent Key I love it off Gators in a cocktail party. Missouri, Ole Miss at Tennessee. That'd be tough, Tennessee. And then at Georgia Tech with a new coach, Brent Key. I love it. Off the talent guy. They're going to win. They're going to be back in the title again. Again.

They're a lock for the playoff, and it's like, okay. Are you not really a college football guy? I mean, you watch it, but you don't pay attention. You're not like a hardcore Maryland football fan, are you? No. I mean. How about basketball, but you don't pay attention. You're not like a hardcore Maryland football fan, are you? No. I mean. How about basketball? Are you into college basketball like that?

Yeah, it's a little harder on the West Coast, but I'm following them. But go on. I'm just saying, do you have a take about Georgia TCU? We covered it with Gabe, but do you watch it? Yeah. Do you have a take on that game? Yeah. I mean, this honestly is one of the reasons why i don't find

watching college football is fun because i'm such an nfl fan that when there's like a talent disparity the game's over in five seconds like that game you start watching it and you're just like oh my god like this again and then you get this feeling of like inevitability where you know in the nfl like we who did we say was going to matter this season we said that it was going to probably be the bills the chiefs the bangles we were kind of out on actually but the bills the chiefs and the 49ers probably but we didn't know with lance and that's who's there but like along the way there's twists and turns and every game matters it's it's uh whereas I don't know I think college football it's just like the fact that we can already probably guess like here are three of the four teams next year yeah in the in the

playoff and be right about it just doesn't feel as fun and then if you are a team like Maryland it's like what does success even look like like you know hank and the longhorns have their delusion they can cling on to but like most of the rest of us kind of have this other part of this this sport where it's just like i don't know like we want to win the mayo bowl again next year cool like it's just it's it's hard to find it's like boxing or where there's like these multi's like huge heavyweights and then everything else is just sort of like, I don't know. I like this. I don't know. Like whatever.

I think. Okay. So college football, in my opinion is great because there's different ways to root, to root for the sport. Right. So, you know, NFL,

it's super robust. We know that every year. Right. But in college football, man, like you can root for your team to win six games and be totally fine with it right you can root for your team to win 10 games well yeah but for the most part that's not like like like the commanders yeah like but there's ways you know you could win 10 games you win your conference different ways to root for football and like oregon's not

going to win a championship like i still root for them to to win the pack 12 like i could be fine with so many different outcomes that aren't a championship. If I'm a Chiefs fan, I'm not a fan of losing the AFC Championship game. I want to win the championship. And that's the difference about college football. Oregon can be a top 10 team,

and I'd be totally happy if they win the Rose Bowl next year, which is a playoff semifinal game. But they win any New Year's Six game. Pumped, Matt. Pumped. Well well sure but like look at the lions the lions just had their biggest win of all time and it didn't matter but like yeah but that's that's one nfl team like but then but i i think honestly dude you're spoiled with the chiefs like for i know 20 nfl teams i mean there's whatever fans are fans in the nfl but like if you're a fan of someone that's not one of the five or six obvious title contenders like giants fans are are feeling

awesome right now like no matter what happens but they made the playoffs though right but if they lose in the playoffs they're like this is an amazing season like i as a fan i'm like this is about what i expected they didn't embarrass themselves i'm glad that they played once i'm disappointed um but i don't know i think i i agree but i feel like in the nfl it's like cool if if you're one of the top third of the teams you make the playoffs and you're kind of a moribund franchise like my commandante is like i would have been thrilled. Whereas, I don't know, I guess. But to go back to that game, like, I guess it, I don't feel like there's a format problem. Like, I'm not one of these. It's like, well, we got to expand the playoff.

Like, it's like the outcomes are the outcomes. Like, TCU beat the shit out of Michigan and deserve to be there. But at the end of the day, like, recruiting NIL and, like, one awesome coach and a 38 year old quarterback can really make the difference and just like make everyone else look like they don't belong. So I don't know. I mean, I credit to Georgia and credit to Kirby Smart for taking a thing that felt so inevitable with Alabama and flipping it on its head and dominating the SEC. And the TCU is a great story but you know next year it's going to be like it's going to be michigan and ohio state again in that top 10 it's going to be georgia it's going to be alabama it's going to be you know a few

others that are always there but i i don't know am i making sense i get it look there's an there's an another ability that you feel watching college football, right? Where there's just going to be this amount of teams in the playoffs and that's it, right? I'm with you on that. I do agree with you there. But I do sort of...

I don't mind Georgia being really good. I just don't mind that. I really don't, man. I watch a film of this game and, of course, I'm different because I get access to the film, dude. It's a lot of fun. They're just a fun team to watch. They're a pro offense, man. They're a pro offense.

They really are. They were fantastic and obviously the deserving champs. I'm sorry, Hank, for assassinating your Longhorns, but maybe better days are yet to come. Is there anything? We've gone for quite a while here. Anything else we need to hit? I think we're good, man.

It's going to be a fun week of games. We'll probably put out the podcast a tad later than usual on Tuesday. I do not know if we're going to wait for Monday Football to hit or not yet. We have to do something. do some talking about that one. But please rate, review, subscribe. Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Have a great weekend of watching sports, everyone. Take care.