Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for the NFL Divisional Round

Episode Date: January 19, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back to give you their picks on the four NFL Divisional round showdowns. Tune in for an in-depth breakdown of each matchup, as well as some teaser ideas and player prop leans.Make sure to leave a rating and a comment if you haven't already, or tweet @geoffschwartz to tell him what you think of his show directly. Thanks for listening!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 19th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network it's our weekend wagering preview we're covering the four divisional games the national football league it is the best weekend of nfl action that we'll find the entire nfl season four games bunch of division winners the best teams all left in the national football league playing this weekend matt ford how you doing but anything surprise you an opening weekend of super wild card weekend you know every year there's one weekends where everything feels really obvious and then there's one weekend that feels really chaotic and crazy. I can't really decide which last weekend was. I mean, the Jacksonville thing was absolutely outrageous.

Maybe the worst loss in a playoff game I've ever seen. Maybe that Andrew Luck Chiefs game is up there. The one I played in? Yeah, I realized as I was saying that that you were in that game. The one I played in every snap in that game? Yeah. Yeah, that's a tough one. The difference was we lost like seven starters to injury in that game.

The Chargers lost nobody. That's right. Yeah, well, I was going to ask, actually, if there were any flashbacks for you as that game unfolded. Yeah, there were. It was just different, right? I mean, you know, we played well and just got hurt. Like, Alex went through for 400 yards.

We just got hurt. Like, it just had happened. And we had some bad luck happen to us. Like, we had the bad luck happen to us, where Jacksonville had the bad luck happen to them and came back and won, right? It's sort of like how Buffalo had the bad luck happen to them and still won, and the Bengals had the good luck happen to them

and won, right? Like, that's how it was. We had, the Jaguars had all the bad luck and still won. We had the injuries and turnovers in the second half, and we lost. Like, it's just different ways to lose. But Staley's still there. Staley's there.

They fired the O.C. as expected. You know, to me, it wasn't – you know, I think the closeness of the Bills game was surprising to me. You know, we should have known better with Tampa Bay, man. Like, they'd stunk all season, and they stunk again. We should have known better. I will just say, to talk about the games heading into this weekend, we should be very mindful

of not overreacting to what we saw last weekend as we headed to this weekend. I feel like the public is going to overreact a lot to what happened this weekend. You might as well, but I'm not going to. Maybe I should, maybe I shouldn't, maybe I shouldn't, but I'm not going to. Maybe I should. Maybe I shouldn't.

Maybe I shouldn't. But I'm not going to do that. Now, for these games, it's Wednesdays. We'll record this. I do like some sides. I do like some totals. I do like some props. As the week goes on, the props get a little more clear and some more research done.

The numbers are moving. The numbers are moving these games as well so you might get better numbers before the end of the week for some of the for some of these sides um but let's start with the niners um let's start with the chiefs and the uh the jaguars game um and talk about that one that's the first game on saturday yeah um should be an amazing game. Uh, Trevor Lawrence undefeated on Saturdays. We'll see if he can do it again. Uh, the chiefs are eight and a half point favorites at home, obviously coming off of the buy. Um, this is a big spread. We've talked a lot on this show about my homes with, uh, when he's laying a lot of points. Um, this is a spot where I think

a lot of folks are probably going to back Jacksonville. They might be a public dog too, because I think a lot of people are just fired up to bet Trevor Lawrence. We're going to talk about the total on this one, but I'm curious if you have a side here that you're looking at. So I did see the numbers on the, on the total,

but very quickly I like the Chiefs' team total over. They scored a ton of points in their first playoff game with Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid. But secondly, Matt, they don't cover a lot of these big spreads during the season, but in the playoff, they kind of do at home. If you look at the last four home playoff games, the first game of each postseason, 31-13, 51-31, 22-17. Remember that in that Browns game, though, Mahomes got hurt in the third quarter.

Otherwise, the Chiefs had not been stopped the entire game. And then 42, what was last year? 42-21 over the Steelers. They played that first game pretty well. And I just don't think we should overreact to what Jacksonville did in the second half of that game. They played about seven weeks ago. The Chiefs didn't even play that well and handled them pretty easily.

Um, I just don't know how the, I don't know how the Jacksonville wins this game. Like they, they lost the game plus three in turnovers seven weeks ago. Like, I just don't, I don't know what the path is for Jacksonville to win this game. Now, cover the game, sure. Late touchdown. I think Kansas City is just so doubted. Matt,

they're one of the only teams in the NFL, especially playing this weekend, who have waited all year to play in this game. Right? Like, all they do the entire season

is get ready to play in the playoffs. They went 14-3, lost three games, I think, by a combined 10 points. It was 4-3-3. And they get ready to play in this game. This is where their season starts, on Saturday in Arrowhead. And I'm not saying, I wouldn't back the Chiefs per se.

I would take their team total over. And I might just sit on a live bet if this game gets out of hand, I'd take the dog at some point. Or if the Chiefs get down 10-0, just hammer the Chiefs, right? So I don't think Jacksonville has enough to win this game. Yeah, I agree. I don't see a world where Kansas City loses this straight up because of all the reasons you suggested. The experience definitely matters um right andy reed off the buy obviously is one of those things that's just automatic over time

as a winner um 19 and 8 straight up oh sorry that's playing his former assistants off the buy he's 28 and 6 straight up and 21 and 13 against the spread he is playing a former assistant 19 and 8 against those straight up um not quite as good against his spread, 16-11. I want to talk about Jacksonville in a bit, and especially about something that you and I were texting about off air. Kansas City, I think, is a little bit more vulnerable against a really good team than we might actually guess like we'll see how they handle you know a real quarterback with that can put up a lot of points in a hurry like i think their

defense is going to be the thing that gets tested and some of these receivers who have to make plays um you know when it comes to third and six and it's like can we really get a catch out of mvs and can we really get jerek mckinnon going the way he was going in the regular season? I don't think those questions are really going to come up here. I do think that with Jacksonville, they've proved they're never out of it. I think it'd be interesting to actually go the other way. And I think Kansas City probably comes out of this thing sharp. They're going to be crisp off of the bye.

Jacksonville has been a slow starter throughout the season. They tend to warm up as the game goes along. I almost wonder if there's like a first quarter or first half angle to, to maybe think about this, but I think we are getting a really nice number at at eight and a half. And I think I'm kind of just want to track how this has gone this week. I mean, all of the money, it's scary to be on a public dog. All of the money is on Jacksonville,

although Kansas City is still getting the majority of the bets, so maybe it's not that public. There's a number here for the under that unders in home games with the Chiefs are hitting 16 wins in 25 games and they're favored by at least seven. Because they kind of just sit on the ball. They're good at kind of just moving the ball down the field. They're not a hurry

up offense. The Chiefs' first half is minus five and a half. I don't like betting quarters in the NFL. I feel like there's not enough possessions. Like if the Chiefs go down the field, punt the ball, Jacksonville just keep the ball the rest of the quarter. I don like there's not enough possessions. Like if the Chiefs go, you know, go down the field, punt the ball, Jacksonville just keep the ball the rest of the quarter. I don't like first quarter bets.

First half is certainly possible here. I don't know. If it's cold and snowy, which it looks like it's going to be, Jacksonville, they're not a cold weather team either. I just think it's going to be kind of a bad spot. This weekend is going to be a lot of a bad spot this weekend is going to it's going to be a lot of public dogs probably for all four games and it's not a spot in my opinion you want to be in if you're gambling yeah 100 i i i think this is i this looks like to not

be that public of a dog and this line moved i think it opens uh was it a 10 and a half or nine and a half so i think it's going to get sort ten and a half or nine and a half i think it's gonna get sort of crest here it doesn't seem like there's any juice on either side so it might just sort of stay at eight and a half um i have a feeling at some point there's gonna be a little bit of a push to the chiefs um just because i think a lot of people are gonna say the same thing it's like hey is jacksonville really gonna go to k Kansas City and win the other thing that's this is a really the thing that kind of scares me is this is a really fishy teaser number like they're hanging it here so that people will tease it down six points and take the Chiefs like I find that to be a little bit strange um because it's just so obvious but and there's other great

teaser candidates on the board but I still feel I feel pretty comfortable taking Jacksonville with the points and probably thinking about Kansas city entities. But I did want to mention, we were talking about this and I think this could be just an interesting thing to discuss. It isn't related to gambling. So Peyton Manning on the broadcast on, on Monday night was talking about halftime adjustments.

And this was just sort of interesting for the normal sports fan to hear him say something like, I think, you know, coach they just give you oranges and say, get back out there and play. And a lot of people were sort of taken aback by that because, you know, we're always told that the Belichick's and the, you know, McVeigh's and whoever just do such a great job at halftime. What, what's, what's more true Peyton's thought or how everyone else thinks about it all right so I tweeted out um thank you to this right and I got some interesting replies from different

players around the NFL um for the most part the idea of halftime adjustments is way overblown right um you know there are not wholesale changes made at halftime. So halftime is 15 minutes. By the time you get in there, it's about 12 minutes, right? By the time you walk in there and you get in the locker room, you put your helmet down, and then you got to go pee. Got to get your hands re-taped, your ankles re-taped. You got to get some equipment fixed up. And while that's happening, the coaches are meeting because they've come downstairs from their meeting. Now you got about six minutes left in halftime, all right?

And the coaches come meet with the players. And I got, they meet with you for three whole minutes, Matt. And then you go back out. You ain't doing much in three minutes. So it's basically like, here's the plays we like in the second half. Here's the plays we don't like. Here's the ones that aren't working.

We're not going to run these anymore. And if you have a good coach, everything's already up. Like you have everything ready to go in a game plan for every situation already. And you're organizing your thoughts on how you want to attack in the second half. There are, there's not rare, it's very rare to say to make wholesale changes to anything.

Now, Kurt Warner answered me, Damian Woody, who played the Patriots, and I talked to Damian about this, and so did I talk to Warner about this. They said, like Warner said, that they would put in pass plays at halftime. Wow. So it wouldn't really affect me as an offensive lineman.

And every so often they put a new run play. Damian Woody said they would put a new run play at halftime. That's bold, man. You have to have a good offensive line to put a new run play at halftime. Like, that's tough. Andrew Whitworth answered and said, we made adjustments all game.

So halftime was no different, which is what I am accustomed to, right? You come to the sidelines. Okay, here's what's happening on this play. Okay, here's the adjustment to this. I remember one time we were in Kansas City. We're at Tennessee and we had a coded word for outside zone. They'd figured it out.

We need a new coded word. We just figured it out in 30 seconds. They radioed the new coded word and we were on our way. Like adjustments are made all game. So halftime is not a place where you're making these wholesale changes now guys on defense answer differently guys on defense said they do make a lot of changes at halftime um so that's a difference i think in maybe offense versus defense is maybe they don't make adjustments quite the same that we do but a good offensive coach has everything in, man.

Like, you just look at your play sheet at halftime. Okay, well, we haven't done this yet. All right, we're going to try this play early in the half. All right, this play. Okay, that play has worked. We're going to try that. All right, I don't like that. That one hasn't worked.

That one's scratched. Okay, we're going to run this play here out of this formation this time. Okay, cool. That's it. It's like it's already on the play sheet. It's not like you're up there just drawing up plays and like getting all crazy with stuff. There's no time to do that. Plus, again, if you have a good coaching staff,

it's done throughout the game. And I get Manning too. Manning is a coach himself on the field. He's just calling the play every play himself. What adjustments is he making? Okay, he's on the field going, oh, cover two, I'm running this route. Cover three, I'm running this route. So at halftime, he's not changing anything.

So that's what halftime is. It's not this like, you know, people said, what did Doug Peterson say at halftime to Trevor Lawrence? Play better. Play better. Like that's what he said. Play better. He probably was like, look, guys, I've been in a situation before I was on the other side of the field. play better play better like that's what he said play better he probably was like

look guys I've been in a situation before I was on the other side of the field I was up 28 I lost the playoff game I know you guys can do this let's go out and execute let's get it done

let's go win the game ready break that's what he said that's it like the plays are in for the week you've prepared you're ready to go. You rarely, rarely ever see something you're not prepared for.

You know, there are teams you play, I'm talking from my offensive line perspective, where they have designer pressures for the week. So like they're going to run things they only run against you. The following week they run something else. The following week something else. You know that by the end of the first quarter. Like you're not waiting until halftime to adjust if you are you have a terrible coaching staff so there's it's a it's a collaborative process all game and so there's just not this wholesale change of things that happen at halftime it's fascinating i think i when you actually break

it down the thing that stands out sort of is like well by the time you get off the field get in there go to the bathroom get your ankle re-taped like all that stuff like there's not even the sort of like time to to make the connection of like here's what we're going to be doing like there's it's so chaotic even the idea of we spent all week saying like, you know, this was our word for this. And then we just have to change it. It's like,

you guys just have to adapt like so much, so fast all the time, I guess. Go ahead. Well, this is, and you do eat, by the way,

there is, there is food. I didn't eat at halftime very often, but there are orange slices. There are rice, crispy treats. There are honey stingers. There are sandwiches. Like guys eat at halftime very often, but there are orange slices, there are Rice Krispie treats, there are honey stingers, there are sandwiches.

Like, guys eat at halftime. There's no time. There's no time. There's a good article that Matt, was it Matt Barrows wrote for The Athletic where he actually, it was at the end of the month,

end of December, he went into the locker room for the Niners at halftime and he got to watch what happened. And it's pretty interesting because he's explaining how I said it would happen, obviously. But it's kind of just like insanity, man. Everyone's running around everywhere, coaches talking,

and then all of a sudden you talk for a minute or two and ready to break, man. Let's get out there. It's so much – it's insane how much gets planned that people just – we just can't understand if we've never you know played at a high level to just see what just sort of like how good these coaches are at making sure that everything's thought about yeah the last thing on this too is i it's interesting hearing from the defensive guys on twitter about this because yeah you do

you do see more wholesale changes on defense half to half than you do on offense like you know you do see defense yeah like the well the the really the Ravens came out in the second half against the Bengals but the Bengals have been a team that's much better the second half of games too you don't see that offensive like the Jaguars just stopped turning the ball over it wasn't like they did anything different they just stopped turning the ball over. It wasn't like they did anything different. They just stopped turning the ball over. You know, you don't save your good plays for the third quarter. If you're struggling in the first quarter, you bring out that,

you bust out that good play in the second quarter, right? To get your offense going. So it was interesting hearing defensive guys say they make more adjustments than the offensive guys do. Was, is there ever a moment, I mean, I certainly picture, yeah, this was a thing that in i'll just use my

personal example here like in washington lore it was always told that like joe gibbs would make these halftime adjustments and speeches and the team would just come out in the second half and be so much better it was like this thing that was just understood and i certainly picture like the mike tomlins the mcveigh is uh maybe the belichicks like some of these guys just being able to command the room even if it's just for a few minutes to with something motivating or something that just sort of like unlocks the group from like a leadership perspective did i mean you played for andy reed and rivera and like other really great coaches like did any of them ever give you like one of those motivational speeches like you'll see in a movie or like do anything beyond the tactical Andy Reid is not really that guy um honestly he's like more like all right guys let's

follow the plan let's go he's just so prepared huh just like he's like all right like let's do it um so it's like hey i already thought about it like just go out there and do it like that's actually like that's what a good boss does if you're prepared if you're prepared um you would you would kind of you should have everything squared away. But was there ever like, I mean, was there ever any given Sunday type speech at a halftime or even before a game? Like for any of your coaches? I don't remember. I really don't remember. I'm trying to, I'm, I'm quickly going back and trying to remember,

like if it was there a Tom Coughlin or like a, I don't know, just, it's just surprising. Like, like i just i think that we all think that there's some great motivator out there but you've always sort of given me the reminder it's like hey we're professionals like we know what we're doing everything's like thought about no one needs to let extra kick in the ass because you know they're getting they're already at that level um i don't know just it's it's so interesting um i just i don't think it happens i i can't remember like uh plus to be fair i'm not a raw raw guy so i don't pay attention to those speeches so it's not it's that's partly why too interesting yeah um well i don't even

remember where we left off in this but i do know that we i did want to talk about the total in this i'm usually not a person that bets um totals very often but one of the the sharp plays of the week is the under in this game um i'm curious if you're if if you're looking at playing the under in case you just i i think but it's hard for me to do the chief's team total over and then take the under two you know i mean yeah that's true yeah so i guess you're if that happens you're rooting for a blowout i i think um that with a lot of this the trends say to take the under in this one i kind of lost my place listening to you there but um first of all uh in general when spread, I think you mentioned this is, is

high with, uh, the chiefs at home, it goes under, um, this, the ref of this game, Sean Hockley games tend to go under with him, which is kind of interesting. Um, so a lot of penalties, that's why. Yeah. A lot of penalties. Um, but yeah, this will be a great game. Enough about it. We can move on to the next game on Saturday, which is Giants-Eagles. I texted you right away that I like the Giants plus 7.5. It moved back to 6.5.

Now it's back to 7.5. So I don't know. Where are you here? Okay, why do you like the Giants? I'm just curious. I like them less than I did at first because i was just sure that the number would move the fact that it got bought back has me a little bit nervous mainly just because the giants have proven what they are they're just a team that keeps games close um they're just they're tough to put, even if they're down by quite a bit.

They're just going to be in it throughout the end of the game. But the main case is Hurts. He's not going to be 100%. We don't exactly know what not 100% is. Could he be at 50%? Could he be at 80%? Either way, kind of scary when you're talking about a playoff game against a team that's already faced you twice.

So, I don't know. I thought this this was just it made sense to uh to take the points um with a team that is scorching hot like the giants just they're just hot and i you know with the compromised quarterback it's hard to lay over a touchdown with philly all right so here's my thing about this game um this is the one i think we're overthinking a lot in this one. Okay. Where are the Giants better than the Eagles? Just around on the roster. Like, where's the position, the position group? Like, where?

I mean, it's guys like Barkley, Andrew Thomas, you know, maybe Daniel Jones now. I don't know. Daniel Jones is not better than Jalen Hurts. Depends what percent he is. Let's stop that. Let's assume Jalen Hurts is 90%. Like, why wouldn't he be?

He just, all he didn't do was run the ball against the Giants two weeks ago. Like, if he runs the ball again, which I think he will because it's a playoff game, the thing about it is the Eagles have the mismatch in the offensive-defensive lines. I know the Giants' defensive line is good. Eagles' offensive line is fine. They're going to handle them just fine. They blew them out two months ago for this reason. The Giants' defense is not good.

The linebackers aren't good. The secondary is not terrible right now. They're much healthier. They allow a lot of explosive plays. How they're going to score points in this game, Eagles secondary is really good. Eagles defensive line is really good. To me, Matt, this is one we're overthinking, man.

Like the Eagles are the far better team. Now, it's the playoffs. They're division opponents. I get all – the Giants are so well coached. Am I laying the seven and a half? The hook's not great. I would buy down to seven. But to me, this is the one where we are way overthinking.

Like the Eagles are the the better better football team and i would i would be very happy taking eagles i think eagles win this game by two touchdowns that's that's interesting i i might end up being with you um i do think it's interesting that the Eagles lost rematches to the commanders and the Cowboys. They beat the giants in theirs towards the end of the year, but the giants obviously weren't playing anyone. And I almost blew that. The Eagles almost blew that game anyway. I think it's also interesting.

The giants are four and oh, against the spread and meetings with the, with the team in a rematch this season so i think there's something to be said for talk about adjustments like dable figuring something out and also the eagles with their sort of strange offense maybe getting a chance to see them once you adjust to it the second time um i don't know i mean the way that you beat the the way you beat the giants is them, you know, you take away all of their running capabilities, which included the quarterback position. That's not the Eagles' strength. They're really good at rushing the passer.

Like, I don't think that's, like, the way that you beat the Giants. I think it's just they're two really tricky teams. And, you know, I'm not sure that I love taking the seven and a half, but I do feel like the Giants could cover it. I agree this could be one where the Eagles just show up and it's like, oh, yeah, the Eagles, they're awesome. Jalen Hurts is back. A.J. Brown's incredible.

They have a ton of guys who can run the ball, but they also have a coach who, you know, is going to have to – we'll see how this team is in the playoffs with a target on their back and a possibly injured quarterback. So I don't know. This is the one I feel least confident in, to be honest, but I do think that if I had to pick a side, I'd probably take the points with the Giants.

I totally get it, why people are going to do this, and I think a lot of people are going to do this. And I think they, they, a lot of people are, are going to end up taking the giants here, but I mean, Eagles first half of things to play here. I just, I'm just the first half. I'm just,

again, I'm just concerned that they are not. The Eagles are just so much better all over the board. Like, we... Okay, if the... If the Vikings were 9-7, and the Giants beat the 9-7 Vikings, would that change your opinion about this Eagles game?

It's funny that I almost feel like the Vikings, I feel like we learned more about the Vikings than the Giants last week. What we learned about the Giants is like, hey, Daniel Jones might even be better than we thought and the Vikings are just not to be trusted. I think Daniel Jones played well, but I watched that film. The Vikings players were running into each other on defense. They were falling down.

It was bad. The Eagles defense is really good, and the Giants offense is going to struggle with that. Yeah. Maybe this is a teaser candidate. Tease the Eagles down. Tease the Chiefs down. I already did that.

Well, I don't know if all of our listeners have. I put the Bengals plus the points in a three-team teaser. I don't know, Matt. I think we're going to look back and be like, oh yeah, we kind of overthought that one. The Eagles are just a much better team.

I think this next game is the overthinker of the week. And this is the marquee game. It's Sunday at 3, Eastern, Bengals-Bills. This line has moved a ton. Five, five and a half. I want to see what the absolute latest is here. Five and a half for the Bills. Overthinking this one.

Okay, how are we overthinking it? Go ahead. I mean, how do you not just take the points with this good of a team? I feel like everyone this week is saying, oh, well, it's the Bills. And, you know, the story this week, of course, is going to be – I mean, DeMar Hamlin's been in the facility. i imagine he'll probably have some role in this game at home it's a rematch of obviously this surreal thing that happened a few weeks ago but i just think that there everyone seems to be on buffalo for i assume reasons that include that and it's like of course that's an amazing story

that's not what this is about i think think that Cincinnati hasn't lost since Halloween. They looked a little bit shaky, but let's give Baltimore some credit. Baltimore is a really good team. I'm sure that they were looking a little bit ahead to this week in Buffalo, and Cincinnati still took care of business. But honestly, Josh Allen just keeps turning the ball over. That game last week, that game should have been over in the first quarter. It was 17-0 Buffalo.

They were absolutely trouncing Miami. They had no business being in that game. But what happens? Buffalo just makes mistakes that Cincinnati tends not to do. And I think people are looking at this game like they would have looked at it back in August where they talked about Buffalo the Super Bowl favorites and how dominant they are like Josh Allen just has not has not looked right since that injury like he just he just hasn't he still doesn't the mistakes that he's making are still you know they they're going to

catch up to them at some point and the Bengals they're everyone thinks the 49ers the hottest team in the league like they are but cincinnati's right there i mean no losses since october they just keep and they haven't they haven't played a cake schedule either so i just think that if you're getting five and a half you can probably even wait and get six um i just think that in a game with two teams this evenly matched you got to take the most the more steady quarterback um at least at least you know when we're talking about points i don't know if i like him to win but i definitely think that the bangles keep this close so i was very much in the bangles heading in the postseason like i thought they would

win this game like outright right like just outright um and i feel less inclined to say because their offensive line is a huge concern now without their left tackle. Like, their offensive line is a huge problem. And we saw their offense got really clamped down the second half of that game when Jonah Williams went out. Like, it was a problem. And it's going to be a problem when they play Buffalo this weekend on the road. But as far as the way the teams play, right?

So, you mentioned Josh Allen and the turnovers. Like, Buffalo is a high variance team. They kind of always are. Pro Football Focus graded Josh Allen last weekend with seven big-time throws and like three or four turnover-worthy plays. You get that huge variance with him. And that

can be good and bad, right? You have to take the good with the bad because the good plays are really good. The Bengals are very steady i've talked about this for weeks now right don't make terrible mistakes don't have crippling turnovers they make they let the ravens make the mistakes right and that's an important part of what the bangles are and so i would absolutely take the points out to me the under is certainly in play here like the under for me with the style

of both teams with their offensive lines allow a ton of pressure the the pressure that both defensive lines are able to get um eileen bangles plus the points the under here and as a as a fan i want the chiefs to play the bangles like i want them to have to beat the bangles go to superbowl like i want the bangles to win this game so the Chiefs can play them. That's so awesome because I do think, you know, I think I would like, I don't know, it's hard to root against Buffalo, but I definitely think that Bengals-Chiefs, that is the biggest hurdle for the Chiefs. Joe Burrow obviously sort of has had their number.

I think, I don't know, like, the Bills don't have, obviously, Von Miller. Their pass rush isn't, like, so dominant that they're, like, the nightmare team to go against. Like, if, you know, since he somehow are playing San Francisco this week, I'd be, like, I'd be way more nervous. But Buffalo is just a, you know, quality team. They have some quality rushers, obviously. team. They have some quality rushers, obviously, but since he's done this before, they went to the Super Bowl with a worse offensive line than even this battered one last year. So I think, I don't know. I'm maybe a little tempted to sprinkle

on some Cincinnati money line just because I don't know. I believe in Joe Burrow. I believe in the team. We haven't seen them have a really bad game in the team. We haven't seen them have like a really bad game in the playoffs. And Josh, I mean, they Buffalo almost blew that game last week, man. Like, I think since he's getting a lot of,

a lot of crap for almost losing the Tyler Huntley, that's a lot more respectable than almost losing the Skylar Thompson. So I think, I think this line is a little inflated. I've just never seen a team like the bangles. It's able to overcome their offensive line issues. Like, if we look at anyone else, like three-starter offensive linemen out,

you'd be like, yep, that team's done. And I could certainly see that problem this weekend. But without Von Miller, this is why they signed Von Miller. If you remember, if you're a loyal listener, the millions of you guys that listen to this show, if you're a loyal listener, by the way, and hasn't given me a review, what are you waiting for? Go get it right now.

Pause the show. Hit five stars, please. And you can even write something very nice about Matt and I. You don't have to include Gabe. Just me and Matt. Yeah, just leave me alone. And Mr. Groberg. Just the three of us.

Not Hank. Hank's dad. Not Hank. Yeah, Hank's dad. So is that Von Miller was signed for this game and for the game next weekend. Yep. Like that's why he was signed. And obviously him not being there has hurt Buffalo's pass rush.

And I'm kind of bummed that he's not able to play in this game. Me too. Me too. I completely agree. And it's, you know, there was a risk saying we're going to just take it. We're going to go all in on one guy, but it's not much of a better guy to go all in on. So your prediction in this game, I don't know if you made it. I know we both like the under, but you're going to go Bengals?

Yeah. Straight up? I'll take the points, but I think they win the game, yeah. Yeah, I think I do too. I'm not sure if I have the stones to say that they're going to actually bet that they'll win. And the Chiefs are going to do it next week finally jeez i love that um all right the uh the marquee well maybe marquee game of in terms of franchises playing i don't know there's a lot of good games this week another very good game to have 50 million

people watch it yeah this will be the most watched. Sunday night, 6.30 Eastern. Cowboys at Niners. Three and a half or four, depending what you're looking at as we record this for San Francisco at home. We've got Brock Purdy. He still hasn't laid an egg yet. This is, I think, somehow still underrated that this guy hasn't fallen to earth yet.

Dallas had a huge win that made us look stupid for taking Tampa. I don't know. Who's going to run into the buzzsaw here? I think Dallas is. In my opinion, this is an under game all the way, by the way. This is how I'm playing the game is under. Overs won 5-1 last week. It feels like the unders are going to have a good week.

This is a game that's dominated by defensive line. So you have – and I'm glad, by the way, people are starting to write about Brock Purdy. Like, he didn't play that well last week. He was okay, but it wasn't as great as the Niners, as people claim he was. Let's go for 38 points. It's pretty good.

But, nonetheless, you have a Cowboys offense that looked really good against Tampa last weekend. But they've had up and downs. They played well one week, played poorly the other week. But the Snyder's defensive line is legit, Matt. And the Cowboys are really beat up up front. And you have Bosa playing against both Smiths. So, future Hall of Famer Teron Smith is a left tackle.

He's moved over to right tackle now. He's not as good at right tackle, and that's okay, but he's at right tackle. Tyler Smith is a rookie at left tackle. He's not a great pass protector. They're going to face Joey Bosa. Then you have the inside pass rushers for the 49ers, including Armstead. They're going to face a backup left guard, a center who is Nick Bosa.

I'm sorry, a center. Joey Bosa is the one who was whining about not getting calls like a little petulant child. You have Nick Bosa. And then you have the inside guys who are playing against a backup left guard, a center playing with a bad ankle injury, and Zach Martin, who is Zach Martin. He's good. I just think that the Niners' defense will control this game

and shut down Dallas' offense. Dak didn't have an interception last weekend, even though he had an interceptable ball. I think this weekend we're going to see some bad Dak. On the flip side, Purdy has never really been pressed in the six-game win streak, right? Like, his six-game win streak. This defensive line will press him.

Not over Trent Williams, over everyone else. Like, they're going to press him in this game. As Hank notes here, that's probably the easiest schedule so far. The Cowboys defense, the pass rushers they have, the defensive line, they're going to attack Purdy, attack Purdy, attack Purdy. Can he hold up under immense pressure from this defensive line we don't have an answer for that I can't tell you Dak probably those couple interceptions I don't know what Purdy's gonna do I'd imagine not great Matt so to me the unders in play here but I think this game is like 21-13 Niners I think Niners do cover i don't like three and a half it might be

three right now i would take the niners i would go under first and niner second to cover also like the under even though the 49ers have been just such an explosive team dallas has a couple of 30 40 pointers in the last month um the thing with dallas is dallas is a team and i i almost feel like their their fans have like projected on them like if dallas is up 10 nothing there's no way they lose they're just not a team they don't ever feel like they have a comeback in them they feel like a team that starts hot and just keeps going. And when they're cooking, you're like, man, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, this offensive line that has all these names where it's like, oh, somebody goes down, they bring in Conor McGovern.

It's like Conor McGovern would be the best offensive lineman on the Comandantes. They have a lot of guys where you're just sort of like how are they how are they this good and then when they look bad they look terrible like they don't ever seem to be able to pick themselves out of anything where the 49ers now for damn near three months have just been the same exact team every single week. So consistent. I've always had the theory that Dallas is the worst team on grass. We talked about that last week. Didn't matter.

This time, it's going to be soggy fields in San Francisco. Let's see if there is explosive where we know the Niners won't have that problem. I think that there's a huge, you know, the 49ers offensive attack still is just so multifaceted. There's so many ways that they can beat you. I don't think Dallas is. I just don't think that they have the resilience on defense now with Micah Parsons is banged up. They've had some issues with their injuries in the secondary i don't think that it's going to be you know there let's see

them go and win a tough tough game tampa was not there tampa did that game was over in the first quarter i don't know if they're a team that can put it together for four quarters against a team as good as san francisco i i think I'd be comfortable laying it as well. The under in this, I do think, you know, San Francisco is getting to the point where they can't put Purdy in a position to make them lose. I think they have to just keep this game in their hands, in their control. That's a lot of McCaffrey.

I'm with you. I think this is, I think Dallas gets, gets taken out here. Yeah. It's just... Yeah, I don't really... It just feels hard for me to see, like, Dak Prescott leading, like, this ragtag bunch of, you know, like, in their cowboy whites.

They're all, like, grass-stained up with a big 22-21 road victory in San Francisco. It's a hugely physical Niners team. Like it doesn't – I can't see that yet. Yeah. God, can you imagine if the NFC championship is Brock Purdy versus Daniel Jones? Like the NFC, the quarterback gap in the AFC and the NFC is unbelievable.

Um, it, yeah, I, uh, um, it's, it's,

yeah, the AFC has much better quarterbacks. It's yeah. The guys who aren't playing like Herbert would be definitely the best quarterback left. Um, I don't know what he thinks is going to be like, what do you think is going to be the best game of the weekend? The game in Buffalo?

Yeah, I think so. I think so. Although, I don't know. I think there's going to be one big surprise this weekend. And I think, did we just take? No, I think I might take the points with the Giants. But I don't know. I guess we have the Bengals pulling off an upset,

but a lot of favorites for us. A lot of unders. We like unders in the playoffs, especially after an explosion the week before. Anything else you want to hit before we go? I got to write about props. I'm not quite fully there yet on what I'm doing this week for some of these props, but I like Mahomes over his passing number.

Again, I just think they have a big offense output for Kansas City this weekend. Joe Burrow's rushing number is 10.5. He doesn't actually rush for a lot of yards. But I sort of feel like in this game where they're pressuring him a bunch, he's going to have to do a little bit with his legs. That feels like a spot. It's kind of a sneaky spot. By the way, I saw a tweet

from our buddy John Ewing who's at BetMGM now. He was at Action Network. He tweeted out that the over for Tom Brady's rushing yards on Monday night

was.5 by the way, right? It's.5. 99% of action on that was to the over. So I bet the under and I hit it easily. I didn't even, wasn't close to one yard.

Like, what are we doing, people? I had to lay like minus 192. You would have hated that wager, Matt. I would have. I did it anyways. I looked at Josh Allen rushing too. It's 40 and a half. It's a lot.

That is steep. That's steep for, and I think he will have to run the ball a little bit more here. Anything with like the Eagles tight ends against the Giants' linebackers feels like a good way to go. Yeah, so again, it's Wednesday, man. It's early on the prop market.

It is early on the prop market. It is. I'm curious if any thoughts. I mean, I'm sure you talked. Oh, you didn't talk about the Cowboys in the Buc bucks game yet um right you guys yeah the buck the bucks just stink do you have a tom brady uh prediction um he he has said at least we know he said we have we have heard that he has preferred to stay on the east coast for his family right that's what we had told you he has preferred to stay on the East Coast for his family

he has a son from a previous marriage I guess unfortunately now two marriages where he has kids on the East Coast so with that being said the Niners are the best option that's the best option

if he wants to win a championship San Francisco is the best place for him to play next season wouldn't you rather have Purdy? no I'd rather have Tom Brady for two years or a year That's the best option. If he wants to win a championship, San Francisco's the best place for him to play next season. Wouldn't you rather have Purdy? Honestly. No, I'd rather have Tom Brady for two years or a year. Absolutely. In that offense, 100%. What about, I mean...

Matt, here's the thing. Because the things we're saying about Purdy, we know Tom could do those things. We absolutely know that. Without a doubt. It's the things we don't know about Purdy that we know Tom can do. Tom can do all other things. Tom can throw to open wide receivers.

Not a problem. He can do that just fine. You don't need to have a mobile quarterback in this offense. We know that. Well, that's just so interesting because, I mean, they went all in on a mobile quarterback, and we forget that that was even the point of this season. I mean,

the only thing to consider would be the cap number, like having Purdy at the lowest scale rookie contract for three more years is maybe the best asset. The 49ers have on their whole team. That's pretty interesting. I mean, because look, if they win the Superbowl, they can't, they can't be like, cool, let's bring in Brady. Even i mean because look if they win the super bowl they can't they

can't be like cool let's be a brady even if they even if they if they win this game like purdy's their start of next season yeah i don't think there's any question um but i mean can you imagine it's like oh yeah i've heard i mean shanahan would like they would go strength on strength i mean vegas is the is the odds on favorite. I find that to be pretty interesting, but I don't think that's a fit. Vegas seems like not at all a great fit for him. What about

Vegas? Their offensive line's not any good. Their defense is not any good. Why would he go to Vegas to play in the homes division? Get out of here. Yeah, right. He's probably going to want to go after this season, too. It's a great question.

The thing is, is like there aren't that many teams that are like a quarterback away. And I don't know. I just I can't. I mean, the Jets are one that everyone keeps talking about. I just I don't see them as being like really ready to compete there. You know, I definitely don't see the Patriots as the team for him. Who knows? He might just say, hey, I'm turning 46. I'm good.

I'm headed to Fox. I don't think that it's a guarantee that he comes back after this year. He did not look to me like a guy who was really enjoying the process. Byron Lefkowitz is going to get fired everyone's blaming Todd Bowles but like we expect great quarterbacks to overcome bad or mediocre coaching uh it's part of the gig like Zach Taylor was not a well-regarded coach until Joe Burrow willed them to a next level you know what I mean so I I was really surprised that Brady and the Bucs just looked completely flat on Monday.

So when he retires and you guys end up producing one of his podcasts, I'll be co-workers with Tom Brady at three places, Fox, Sirius, and Blue Duck. Dude, that would be incredible. And somehow no NFL stops. That's crazy. That's Gabe's secret plan is to work with us to be Tom Brady's producer.

It has to happen. God, that would be amazing. What if, do you think if Gabe looked at his phone and it said Tom Brady on it, do you think he would think it was a prank or do you think he would answer it? I think that would really be a good test of how devoted Gabe is to this business. I hope

we have to find out. He would absolutely take the phone call. Of course. Of course. He's the greatest of all time, man. He would suck it up and do it. There's people on this roof across the street of this house next to me. Really? Yeah, they're on the roof.

They're blowing off leaves. It's still like leaves are still falling. Are their intentions good me really yeah they're on the roof they're blowing off leaves like it's still like leaves are their intentions good yeah they're like they have they have a they have blowers on and they're like but the problem is they're blowing up the shingles too i don't know what's supposed what's supposed to happen i'm worried about these guys the roof doesn't look that stable but all right well i'll let you know if they fall down next three seconds or so all right well maybe we should have to stay on the air. Yeah. No, I think they're okay.

They look like professionals. I just looked over. I was like, oh, they're on the roof. All right, guys. Hope you enjoy Division Round weekend. We'll be back on Tuesday with our show. Then we have Championship weekend, and we'll talk a lot about those shows. Maybe we'll push it back a day to do props.

That might have to be the way we do it. We need some more time. Fine by me. We'll figure that out. Please rate, review, subscribe. Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. We'll talk to you guys

next weekend. Enjoy the week, everybody. Take care.