Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets: Super Bowl Edition

Episode Date: February 4, 2021

Geoff and Matt help prepare you to gamble on every aspect of the final game of the season. Not only do they discuss the outcome of the game, they discuss every type of bet; from MVP bets to player props to color of gatorade poured on the winning coach and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday february 4th it is three days away from super bowl 55 between kansas city chiefs tampa buccaneers i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you and we will have you prepared for the game we have props fun wagers we'll talk about the side talk about the total talk about the anthem we'll talk about the gatorade talk about it all but first i want to welcome in matt matt this is our second year doing this on my podcast. Yep. But I do recall the first time we met was doing a Super Bowl prop show way back in 2017, I think. Oh, my gosh.

Yeah, that's right. Oh, my God. That was the Eagles game, the Eagles-Pats. Eagles-Patriots. Yes. And I was, it was for action. Actually I had not started kind of quite yet. And Matt's role was very odd. What was your, you had to wear a shirt. Was your role again? Yeah. So we did the,

we did a live stream with our friends at the action network and we did a segment where I pitched a segment with myself as the star, which is sort of a pattern for me in my career, where the segment was called Win the Shirt Off of My Back. And you guys did like a prop bet fantasy draft. And I wore like every T-shirt I had. And every time one of them cashed, I would one of you guys would say like oh like tom brady over passing yards in the first half and i would remove one of the shirts off of my person and give it to you guys but i was wearing like seriously like 75 t-shirts like i was wearing every shirt i had um yeah that was yeah it was it was great it was a great bit uh chad millman the boss there like that was the

first day he met me too and he was like, sorry, what are we paying you guys for exactly? For you to take shirts off and throw them at Jeff? It was quite an experience. So we've had a lot of experience doing this Super Bowl prop show. And things have changed. I mean, they're even offering the Gatorade prop. And we'll talk about that on sportsbooks now legal sportsbooks that used to be only an offshore deal so look what we're going to do is we're going to go through like i mentioned the game and our

favorite props some of these props are gonna be different everywhere right so i got some of these earlier in the week matt got some of these earlier in the week some are different on your fate we're not sponsored by anybody so feel free to use whatever you want before we get there though two things we want to hit on very quickly nfl stories before we obviously didn't hit on these the last couple of days because they just happened so reports now out of vegas that the raiders will be willing to trade derrick carr for deshaun watson anyone would be willing to do that outside of Seattle and Kansas City and maybe Buffalo. But the idea that they're publicly talking about this, Matt, is not surprising because I don't think Gruden has ever been in love with Carr. But they're kind of far away from winning, even with Watson.

So I'm sort of surprised it's being floated out there. Yes, I think some of the latest rumors were that this would be like a three-team trade where derrick carr would be like a package and watson would be able to go and you know maybe throw in like a chicago or a washington or something and they get a car um i this to me every super bowl week there is a story like this like one year i there was one year where the story was it was like two years before kevin durant was a free agent and woge reported that uh he was potentially interested in going to the warriors and i remember because i was working on a show and we were doing like a live show and we had to talk basketball because like some weird thing came

up and then like peyton manning going to the rams came up one year like every year there's like some weird thing came up. And then like Peyton Manning going to the Rams came up one year. Like every year there's like some wacky story that an agent plants to get some traction during this week when all of the media is usually congregated and just like looking for stuff to talk about. That's what this felt like to me a little bit, but I'm just wondering like who benefits because I don't exactly like, I do think the Raiders want to move on from car. He has a pretty friendly contract.

And we were just sort of, we were talking last week about just all of the potential dominoes that could fall with this quarterback situation. But I don't like, I just don't see how the Raiders would. You said it. Like, I don't see how they're that close to a super bowl with Watson or who

would be willing to sort of like take on Carr to help to not get Watson do you know what I mean yeah um it doesn't make sense other than John Gruden floating this out there to get just some attention back on his team you know I mean like I could see the oh Chiefs Super Bowl week all right I'll just take some of the air out of the Chiefs to talk about Deshaun Watson I don't you, the idea is you trade Carr and Waller and multiple picks for Watson. But what does that leave you with? A defense that's still shitty.

Your best offensive weapon now gone. Why, I know we talked about Deshaun Watson's no trade clause. Why would he want to go to Vegas with that team that's around him? Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. This does feel like a Gruden plant. And then I did see that Gruden,

I think on the PFF podcast, was talking about how great Derek Carr was. Gruden has never seen all in on him. He's clearly... No, he hasn't. And he shouldn't be, right? Like, I don't know. They've invested quite a bit for the weapons around him, and it's just never really come together um it never has at the end of the season

either so um sticking a little bit i guess out west because he coached most of his career there but he does live in the in the city i call home uh marty schoenheimer uh moved to unfortunately say moved to hospice care in charlotte dealing Alzheimer's, and so the end seems near for Coach. Look, I don't think I ever played against one of his teams. He retired right before I was there, but, man, he just was a good coach everywhere. Like, he just was one of those guys who was respected. I mean, he won 61% of his games in the NFL. That's really good guys.

Like that's, that's now the problem is in the post season, he was five and 13. That's why obviously he got fired off a 14 win team in San Diego. But he, everywhere he went, man, he could coach.

Yeah, he did. I mean, tough. I feel like he had such tough luck at the end of his career he had that one crazy season with washington where they went he went eight and eight on like a team that uh started oh and five and he got fired and then he had such a great run in san diego but it never really materialized uh i don't know wishing his family all the best that's

alzheimer's is just the worst so um great coach it's yeah it's interesting i'm doing some research on on marty came across a couple things that took his luck right his tenure as nfl hunking coach uh concluded with 205 wins which are the most of any head coach should not reach or win an nfl championship that's uh ironic that you know you think charges you think philip rivers and, and it's sort of the same story. Like, so prolific, but ultimately never really taken it to that final level. Yeah. You know, part of those was the losses in San Diego as favorites, you know,

to the Jets, and then I don't think they were favorites to the Patriots in 07, but they just never kind of got over the hump. And obviously, you know, great ties to Kansas City, as he was in Kansas City for many years and kind of got that offensive line rolling there, got that running game rolling a little bit as well, kind of started that whole process of bringing that team into the early 2000s when they were rolling. He wasn't coaching them obviously uh but he spent 10 seasons there and

won 63 of his games three division title seven playoff appearances um yeah pretty impressive yeah it would be a nice one for chiefs fans if they're able to pull this out on sunday yeah yeah it would um all right let's do it man so buddy? Our last line of the 2020-21 season. As of recording time, it is still Chiefs by three in Tampa. The Chiefs are a 163 money line favorite where I'm looking. The Bucs are plus 145 at that book. The Bucs, you're getting around even money to lay to get the three points uh the total right now is is about 55 and a half 56 where do you want to start jeff

let's start with this i have a tampa bay futures ticket at plus 1100 to win the super bowl wow At plus $1,100 to win the Super Bowl. Wow. 50 to win $550. Big spend. That's awesome. What do I do? So here's the options.

Let it ride. Chiefs lose. Whatever. I'll make money. Do I put a little bit on the Chiefs' money line just to hedge a tiny bit out just so I make some money? Do I put like $300 300 to win what would it be like it'd be under 150 right about 150 maybe yeah right like so i don't i don't know i think i should just let it ride well i guess it depends on i think it depends on who you actually like.

I think that that is one ingredient that we should factor in here. Because if you have Tampa winning this game, that will affect how you play this. But I don't think you do. I don't have them winning this game. So here's my general thought about the game. I don't like you do. I don't have him winning this game. So here's my general thought about the game. Is I don't like the number three. If it was at two and a half or three and a half,

I think I would take the Kansas City two and a half and Tampa Bay at three and a half. Three feels like a number where it's just being batted around back and forth. And a lot of the money's on Kansas City too. So I would lean Tampa there. Just from a gambling perspective. I'm taking the fate of the public idea,

it's going with Tampa Bay in this game because all the money's in Kansas City. And I think the line makers know if the line does get to 3.5, Sharps are coming in strong on Tampa Bay and they don't think they want that. They just kind of want to keep the public money on Kansas City, have some

kind of split a half and half, right? Because if you come to the Sharp plays, they're going to come with a lot of money on Tampa Bay at plus three and a half. Do you think that's kind of why it hasn't moved very much? Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, I think because I think a three and a half is a pound Tampa. So the Chiefs can play anywhere from a B game all the way up to an A plus game and win. Like they have aplus game and win.

Like, they have a clear path to win. Tampa needs 1, 2, 3, and 4, and 5 to go right. They need to turn the ball over. They need to slow down and hit Pat Mahomes. They need Tom Brady to figure out how to handle pressure. They need their special teams to play a little bit better than they have. Like, they need all these things to go right. And guess what, guys?

The Niners did it last year for 53 minutes. They're up up 20 to 10 had the ball back to ice the game down so you can do it it's just hard to do it for full 60 minutes but i also thought they would lose to new orleans and lose to green bay and they won both those games so as confident as i feel about the chiefs winning this game, the gambling part of me would probably take Tampa in the points, especially at three and a half. So getting back to my original bet, I will probably just bet maybe enough to cover the 50 bucks

on the Chiefs money line. And that's about it because I'm not a hedger. Like I don't like to hedge bets. I famously had this 10 team open parlay that I lost in the WNBA game at the 10th leg. And I didn't, I, I,

I didn't hedge it. And people were like, why don't you hedge it? I go, cause I didn't want to. Okay. It wasn't that much money. Yeah.

Dude. How about you? I wish there was a prop for will Jeff mentioned the WNBA in our Super Bowl batting podcast. Plus 800. Yes. Kind of. I do remember you texting me about it. Me being like, what is wrong with you?

I had a 10 team open parlay one summer and I had one nine. I was paying out 109 to one and i needed one more play and the minnesota links were like 15 and one play like two and 14 in some indiana team their favorite they were they were money line minus 1500 on the money line that game so it's like i'll take them and then i'll just win the par you know i'll be 116 to one was my payout and the links lost like 13 at home. It's like Indiana's only road win all season. Oh, my God.

That's incredible. I mean, this is just why it's never ultimately a profitable business to bet on sports unless you are very much better than all of us. But we have a lot of fun doing it. So I don't hedge, basically. So I'm going to just let it ride. So those are my thoughts on the game. How do you see specifically the line and the total? I mean, I'll start with the game itself.

I mean, I was just sort of like zooming out and thinking about this game because we have so much time to think about it. And I think it comes down to three big advantages here. And they're on both sides the first advantage clearly is the bucks defensive line against whatever's left of the chiefs offensive line hopefully your brother plays hopefully the chiefs o-line is healthy i saw a uh a post from duvernay tardif or he was like in the snow like like on Twitter or something like that. And I was like, the Chiefs could really use that guy this week.

Like, too bad he's like such a good doctor and like is saving the world instead of protecting Pat Mahomes. But that offensive line is potentially an issue. And interestingly, the Chiefs in Mahomes' career are 10-11-1 against the spread when Mahomes gets sacked two or more times in a game. So that's concerning, right? Because I think the big reason, other than basically Green Bay blowing the game in the NFC Championship, it felt like the Bucs were really able to get to Rodgers and make him uncomfortable, even though he played a phenomenal game. So that's pretty worrisome. The next big advantage, I think, and this is not to be disrespectful to Bruce Arians, but I think Andy Reid, the gap between those two guys is pretty sizable. You even just look at the way that the last game

between these two teams played out. The Bucs just couldn't solve Tyreek Hill. They just couldn't stop him. The whole game, it was clear that he got hot early, and they just kept feeding him, the Chiefs. And the Bucs just had no answer. I mean, that was the game where he had the best fantasy football game of all time. Also, you just look at this is another. I mean, this isn't necessarily indicative, but it's potentially interesting andy reed legendary off the buy 63 against the spread

bruce arian's only 44 against the spread after a buy um so you know even just the way that the bucks played the nfc championship so aggressive in the second half brady throwing all those picks like a few little miscues of like not declining like that offsides penalty just like little things where it just seems reed it has a clear advantage there and then the obvious one is mahomes right like it's hard to say you know brady is is not as good as anyone but mahomes remember the bucks defense is great but last time mahomes they played in 12, 462 for three touchdowns. The Bucs do a lot of blitzing. Mahomes is amazing against the blitz at one point this year.

His touchdown-interception ratio was like 12 or 13 to 0. Granted, his offensive line is a little weaker. But, I mean, do you see this game coming down to like, wow, the Bucs sacked Mahomes a bunch of times? Like, no. Well, I'm glad you mentioned that. So, as we get into the props, I bet all the props I could on the Bucs sack totals for individual players.

JPP, I bet Shaq Barrett, and I bet Vita Vea at plus 550 to get a sack. I do think it's a problem for the Chiefs, but they still have Pavel Holmes. And this offensive line has been beat up for most of the year, and it has not mattered. However, they have not faced a pass rush like Tampa Bay. And I do think that they get home to Mahomes. The question becomes, right, is the pass rush has to be

coordinated with the coverage unit. And so, do I think Tampa Bay will be able to hang with Chiefs wide receivers? And I think this time, for most of the game, the answer is yes. They're going to sit back in coverage. They played cover one the first game, man coverage, for the first quarter.

Tyreek out 200 yards, right? They got out of that in the second half, really most of the second quarter, second half. They sat more back in zone. They did that against Green Bay this weekend as well, played a bunch of two-man, cut off the underneath routes, and pressured on Aaron Rodgers. So I do think that they're going to have a big game.

In fact, I would take, you know, if you could find yourself a total sacks for the game combined, we'll talk about the Chiefs in a second here, and one specific I like for them on that side as well. But I would take it all back. I think that those are good bets to make as far as how I think the game will go, that they'll pressure Pat Mahomes with two backup tackles, two backup guards, and a center who got benched early in the season.

We've never never ever seen an offensive line this beat up to ever play in the super bowl there's not even a remote close second man that's uh and it look and at some point i've been thinking about this because i'm with you it has it has not mattered right like it hasn't mattered even last year you know Nick Bosa to my my opinion was the best player in the field last year in the Super Bowl but in the end the Niners lost and the Niners lost because offensively they couldn't keep up so the question is can Tampa keep up we'll talk about that in probably in a second um but at some point having a beat-up offensive line has to matter like it has to matter and maybe it's this game

maybe it's not maybe it's next year i don't know when it is matt but it feels like you can't go into a game of this magnitude with backups at both tackles backups at both guards and come out unscathed well doesn't it still i mean if if that's the case, if the Chiefs win, which, by the way, is my pick for now, do you think – don't you think that Andy Reid can game plan around that a bit? He can. He can. And I'm sure he will with quick passes to the edge, with screens, with things like that. But if you can't run the ball, which they probably can't do

because Tampa Bay's rushing defense is really good, you're going to find yourself in third and longer situations. And guess what? Tampa knows this also, right? Tampa knows the Chiefs are going to try to get to the edge to spread out the defense because they can't attack in the middle because they can't run the football. And this is a game where it feels very much like both teams know what the other is going to do.

It's your point about Andy Reed versus their coaching staff. It's whose coaching staff can make the adjustments and get you guys in the right place. I think to, to sort of jump ahead a bit the, one of the quick passes for, for Kansas city just feels like a thing they're going to have to do. Clyde Edwards, a layer over under two and a half pass receptions same with daryl williams uh the edwards hilaire you can get that over the over for plus 119 which i think is pretty good value

uh daryl williams is plus 186 for over two and a half and he's proved pretty indispensable so those those are interesting ones. Yeah. I was going to say, I like Mahomes over 28 and a half completions for that exact reason. Interesting. I just think they're going to find ways to get, even those little jet sweeps, man, those count as passes when you kind of toss the ball forward.

So, I i mean it's funny i i was pretty i've been pretty rock solid on the chiefs uh since honest but i am too your stuff about the offensive line has actually like it's no fun it's no fun to come on this podcast and say every week the chiefs are better than everyone else. I can make that. To my opinion, it's more fun for me as an analyst and someone that you come to listen to to give you the reasons how they can lose. Because we all know how they can win. How long is this better than everyone else? You know, look, I love Nick Wright.

If you want to go on Twitter and find someone who will tell you Chiefs fans they're the best team ever, that's your guy. And I could be Nick Wright. I could come on here and tell you they're the greatest. I mean, he had a thing today that was great. Pama Holmes in the playoffs. He's played seven, eight playoff games now, I believe. No, more than that.

More than eight playoff games. But no matter what, he's been ahead or tying the fourth quarter in 62% – I'm butchering this. the fourth quarter in a 62 percent and 62 percent i'm butchering this 96 percent he has been ahead in the fourth quarter or tied in the playoff so far 90 of the minutes he's played in those situations and looking back historically like i yeah i'm sure you did a lot of digging on like tom brady and super bowls and stuff like mahomes hasn't had like these elite defenses to sort of bail him out in a few spots like Tom Brady has over the years. But the chiefs,

but the chiefs though, defense is, does play much better than we give them credit for in the situation. Like they have done a good job in big moments. They're very good at defending the deep pass. And I'm curious to see Spagnola against Tom Brady. We saw the first matchup. They blitz the heck out of them.

And they're going to blitz them again. And what answer is Tom Brady? It's why I like Ronald Jones and Fournette, if you can find some good numbers on them, for their receiving totals to be over. The Chiefs allow the most yards in the NFL to running backs in the pass game. They're 31st in EPA defending running backs in the pass game. The problem is Fournette and drones drop a ton of passes.

So, but I think that like, I think the receiving yards prop might be better than receiving catches. We saw Devin Singletary drop a pass that would have got him over in one catch. Yeah. Like that to me feels like a way to go. It's funny.

I had that one too. Fournette's number is a little bit higher the one i had circled ronald jones too um mainly the i just the number i'm getting is four and a half receiving yards um because for net in that green bay game he had two drops that were killers and you know for playoff lenny everybody thinks he's going to be their guy he also blew a pass protection that led to a brady interception um and his snap count's gone down he against washington fournette took 80 of the snaps uh against new orleans he took 68 and against green bay he took 69 nice percent of snaps uh jones has went from like hardly any to in that 20% range. So yeah, I think that, you know, in one pass,

Jones could get obviously well over five yards. Feels like a good one. They have a rushing. I see one of these. They have a rushing and receiving yards for Ronald Jones combined over 41.5. Feels like a good number. Wow. And I'm looking at the book I play at.

Like, Fournette's past receptions is now, it's three over under three, and the over is juiced to minus 300. So clearly other people are thinking about this, but maybe you can get some value on Jones. So why won't they move that to three and a half? Yeah, I don't know. Because under three, I get it. I don't want under 3. So there's some other things I really like.

I don't have a lot of Tampa. So I have a couple Tampa bets that I like. I like Tampa to win the first quarter plus 155. It's kind of an interesting bet because Tom Brady has not scored a single point in any Super Bowl he's been in in the first quarter. But the Chiefs also start very slow. Something has to give. I think there's a lot of value there in that play.

But also, Matt, how about this one? Highest scoring half, second half, minus 105. But the way both teams start slow and the way that both teams have played better the second half the last couple of weeks highest scoring half second half minus 105 i okay so this is now getting spooky because we're starting to talk about the same stuff doesn't it feel like uh the the first quarter first half under is like the game stop of these prop bets this year everybody and their mother is betting oh tom brady doesn't score in that first quarter the chiefs always start down 10 it's like there's no way that's going to happen everyone's saying it's going to happen i'm zagging

i'm my bet for this which sort of follows the same line of thinking tom brady to throw a first quarter touchdown plus 154 what are the chances that in 10 straight Super Bowls Tom Brady is not throwing a first quarter touchdown there's just no chance and I feel like this Super Bowl the thing thing about the NFC Championship two weeks ago the Bucks came out just crisp they came out hot they know that they can't you know when when the game gets longer Tom Brady obviously they have all the faith in the world in him but they can't you know when when the game gets longer Tom Brady obviously they have all the faith in the world in him but they can't spot points to the Chiefs they can't do that that's they can't afford it they're going to be home the little crowd that's going to be there is probably

going to be behind them I think they come out hot and Brady has that stat in his head and the Chiefs are going to have to play catch up early. I'm just curious how much they're going to run the ball in first down this game, because that's their MO. And maybe they hit a big play. I should pass her in the game because everyone knows, especially the Chiefs, they're going to, they're going to pass the football or they're going to run the football early on.

So let's pass the football and you might get a big explosive player in the game. At least to some, some early points. I would definitely kind of break the monkey or take the monkey off his back as far as scoring in the first quarter. What makes this game so interesting is, again, is if you were to tell you that both of us are betting against the team who has the better trench matchup, right, the offensive-defensive line,

you'd think we were crazy but looking at even tampa's offensive line three guys should be all pros left guard center right tackle donovan uh smith the left tackle's okay they have a backup right garden right now and chris jones the chief's best pass rusher is really good in big games. He shows up to big games. He played really well in the Super Bowl. And against Tom Brady, he has – him and Tom talk shit to each other all game. So I got Chris Jones one or more sacks plus 162. I love that. How about this, Matt?

MVP, Chris Jones, plus 12,000. He would need like three sacks and a forced fumble, like some crazy shit to happen. And they're gonna have to find ways to block him. But that's, that's something that like out of the box MVP could be Chris Jones plus 12,000. I like that. I mean,

that's not what you're, you're putting too much down on, but I do agree. I mean, it's fine. I mean, just to stick on MVP forp for a second um i i the odds of it being someone other than mahomes or brady obviously every year it's very it never

happens it feels like but especially with these two guys like i was thinking about if the bucks if the bucks win i think that's a fine play for the chiefs like if i think you know there are a bunch like i i don't think kelsey or or uh hill wins without my homes like i just unless you know they have one of those games like tyreek had the last time but on defense i could see it for if the bucks win is there any chance that tom brady doesn't win the mvp like does he need to throw five picks? I mean, I think it would have to be that, like, Fournette has a 200-yard game.

Like, they win by running the ball. I think if... I know this is, like, a pretty square angle here, but I just can't figure another way around it. Like, if you think the Bucs win this game, it's sort of like Scorsese winning the Oscar for The Departed. That wasn't his best movie, but it just needed to happen at some point. You can get Tom Brady plus 232 to win the MVP if you like the Bucs. I might just pick that anyway.

It's Tom Brady. If he wins his seventh Super Bowl, are gonna want to say like I was there he's the greatest that's the reason right yeah I also think there's sticking on the same lines about you know who could be if it's not Tom Brady or Pam Holmes what I look at like a to run Matthew has like a two interception game um you know 12 tacklesles, because he does so much for that defense. And they're going to pressure Tom Brady, and Matthew kind of has that one Robert, kind of like lurks everywhere, figuring things out.

So it feels like if you're going defensive player, it's like either JPP, who just gets a couple sacks and forces turnover, and Chris Jones, or Honey Badger. I don't even think an offensive player outside of Fournette, who's not a quarterback, can win. I don't think anyone in offensive player outside of Fournette who's not a quarterback can win. I don't think anyone that Chiefs outside of Pat Holmes is going to win, and maybe Fournette has 200 yards and he wins. I even think, I mean, if Brady throws a touchdown and Fournette has 200,

I still think Brady has a decent shot at winning it. You can get Matthew around plus 4,000. That's pretty good. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's pretty good. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool.

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Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. A couple other things I like before we get into the two most fun bets, I think, on the board. This is a Fox bet. I'll give you this one for Fox bet

because I do some stuff for them. Kelsey plus Evans both score a touchdown plus 300. Kelsey and Evans. But wow, that feels kind of high. Yeah. Right? I think they're just hooking people up with bets. Yeah, that's a pretty

interesting one um how about this one i found ready any field goal or pta to hit it upright yes plus 425 i love it i love it man in in harrison butker cannot kick a p18 to save his life the chiefs the the chiefs uh kicker and. And Ryan Suckup is accurate, but sometimes has a little bit of issues. Plus 425, hell yes, let's go. I have one that's a little bit less fun than that, but it's one that I do like. And it goes back to this Tom Brady scoring a touchdown in the first quarter thing.

The team to score first to win, taking the no side on that uh you can usually get plus money on that i got that at plus 130 earlier in the week okay first of all this is essentially a coin flip anyway but kansas city so often gets into a hole that this could be the like okay here we go like they you know they're down, but they ended up winning and it wasn't even that close. Like that could happen. But also the last time these two teams played, the Chiefs came out super hot in that game, which was the last time that they did that pretty much since. And the Bucks kept it close later. So they could have potentially overtaken the chiefs

and made that bet cash in that game too so uh that's one i definitely did like that's a good one um i i i'm trying to find this i haven't been able to find it on any of the books i use but i've seen it floating around there, is Chiefs team total rushing yards, whatever it is, just take the under. I think I saw 80, around 80, take the under 80. Just under 80, be dealt with it. A, they don't want to rush the ball. B, they don't care about rushing the football. C, their offensive line's beat up.

And D, Tampa Bay is going gonna stuff the run like it's not that it's not that complicated interesting you know jeff one thing we didn't even talk about yet is the total in this game um i don't i have no feel yeah so are you we could just skip it i mean it's i mean i mean i mean it's so high i would take, I would take the under just because we're contrarians a lot of times. Yeah. Like, if you are betting this game following the principles that should win you the most money over time, you're taking Tampa and the under. Yeah, you probably are.

under yeah you probably are um but if you enjoy having fun while watching your super bowl uh there is the potential to take a alternate spread uh an adjusted total um one kind of fun one if you think this is going to be like a super high scoring game you could take over 63 and a half points for uh two to one um they get really spicy like if you really want to get nuts and go over 70 and a half for plus 412 uh that's probably not a great bet but that's uh that is a lot of fun to root for and if they do come out hot this could be like those college football championships that seem to happen every year now where it's like, oh, my God, like what is going on here? So I do like that 63 and a half over. I do think there's some live bet opportunities in this game. One of the Chiefs get down 10 nothing like Chiefs money line will be even.

Yeah, maybe by then. And then also you mentioned the the scoring i think a lot of scoring early will lead to a live game under bet because tampa bay loves to run the football they'll get conservative and so will kansas city like just knowing the coaches like that's just what they're gonna do um i also think tom brady being shown first after the anthem for sure. Lock it up. I love that. Lock of everyone. Will there be a mention of Bill Belichick?

I saw that being, but I would say no. Romo and Nance. Oh, interesting. Cause I like how many times will Patriots be said over two for plus one 26. I love that. I have a feeling just talking about the Patriots.

If this was Aikman and Buck and Al and Chris, they would do it. But I'm not sure Romo and Nance. Maybe Romo, but Nance, not going to say it. This is the problem with these bets. It's like, okay, let's say the Bucks win. And it's Tom Brady's first Superbowl since winning it with the Patriots. There's one.

Then it's like, Tom. Right. But, but, but, but that's, is that,

that's the question. I actually don't know. And I feel like these books, like they could just say like, Oh, doesn't count to them. So, okay.

So make sure when you, when you bet, a lot of these are going to, you're going to find on your offshores, right? A lot of these aren't, aren't regulated enough to be in a regular book. But there are going to be house rules for how these are graded,

especially the National Anthem. Okay? The National Anthem is very much graded to how the house has the rules. They'll tell you, hey, it's the home of the brave. The first brave is it. Second brave, not counting. Like, you know what I mean? i mean like they're gonna be very specific if you listen to the podcast earlier this week chris long was very adamant that this will be an

under national anthem of the no research on it i'm taking the under just because chris said so if you lose money tweet it chris and tell him he lost your money yeah i was gonna talk about that but he did such a good job with it uh my concern i've never seen someone talk about the anthem he was very serious about it i mean the concern is that the duet previously has gone over so i you know but who am i to question the uh a super bowl champion see i would have thought the duet goes over because both people want the time to sing of course they got to get their shine. I was surprised to hear him say that he thought under was the way to go.

I also was. But who are we to contradict him? I think Chris is as good at gambling as we are. So terrible. I don't know. I don't know how important it is. What his word is on this stuff Chris and I talk a lot about gambling he wagers a little more than I do

on these contests do you want to get to your favorite conversation every Super Bowl to have well this every year I pry you for inside information on it and either due to lack of good reporting by you or just you have a good poker face.

You've yet to give it to me, even though you very well could. But I'll just get to it here. So the first time we ever met, that's famous day where I kept taking the shirts off my back. You had the best angle for what color the gatorade will be that gets dumped on the winning team that i had ever heard and it blew my mind and if i recall you cashed it that year so i'm gonna ask you again knowing full well that you know someone on the chiefs so that could potentially give you some inside info but what have you got for us when it comes to what color

Gatorade will be poured on the winning team so I've told you this before the Gatorade color is most closely resembled to the jersey they're wearing because they do not want the Gatorade to stain the jersey so let's say that you're wearing white jerseys you're not going to have a dark color Gatorade because you don't it would stain your jersey if you're that you're wearing white jerseys. You're not going to have a dark color Gatorade because you don't, it would stain your jersey. If you're wearing, if you're the Bucks and you're wearing white jerseys, you're not going to have orange Gatorade because orange Gatorade would spill as you drink it and create orange on your shirt. Right? And look at this. Here's the Gatorade colors of the winners.

Ready? So the Chiefs in 2020, last year, with the red tops wore orange right makes sense red tops the patriots in 2019 they they wore they were they were what you think so i believe because tom brady's got a great record of the lights yeah so they have blue so that does not work there eagles uh were their green uniforms. They had yellow. That makes sense, right? Kind of, that would make sense.

So Bill Belichick has been missed with it twice or three times. So 17-0. Broncos in 16. Orange. Well, makes sense, right? Yeah, they were wearing the darker jerseys to play the... No, they were wearing white jerseys, weren't they? That year? Panthers year. Pan white jerseys, weren't they, that year?

Panthers year. Panthers wore all black, didn't they? Let me look. Panthers, Broncos, Super Bowl. They wore all black that year. That was 50. Keep going. So, yeah.

So, a lot of these match, like Giants in 2012 wore purple, right? They had the blue uniforms. So, they tend to match Steelers and had yellow. Giants in 2012 wore purple, right? They had the blue uniforms. So they tend to match Steelers and had yellow. It tends to match the uniform color. Not all the time, obviously. Denver did wear the whites. Carolina was the black. Yeah.

So they had the orange, which is kind of odd that you would have orange with white uniforms. So you see here all the white uniforms typically. Patriots are blue every time, by the way. So you see here, like all the white uniforms typically, and Patriots are blue every time, by the way. So the last couple of years, they've been going blue, blue, blue, blue, blue. So it typically resembles the color or really the hue of your jersey.

So if you think Chiefs are going to win, orange and red is the way to go. If you think the Bucs are going to win, you're probably looking at a lighter color. And it's never clear, right? Like I feel like every year I get sucked into it right here. We've had, we've had clear a lot more in 2008,

2006 and 20 and 2005. Interesting. Well, right now I'm getting a red plus three 42. It's, I think this means you can rule out like purple. You can rule out blue uh and who's betting no liquid come on uh i think that you either get like a red yellow and orange there's always

variations um but you would think that the yellow doesn't really fit so it seems to be maybe you sprinkle a little on the orange and the red yeah Yeah, I think for Tampa, I think with the white jerseys, man, they're not going to have orange, I don't think. Maybe they will. This year is different, too, because of COVID. They're different Gatorade protocols. Oh, wow.

I'm kind of curious to see what's going to be. Maybe no liquid is the play. Oh, my God. Maybe that's it. Maybe there's some violation of... I need to find out. I should have texted one about this beforehand. Because I think even every player's like individual bottles this year.

This is like. This is changing my whole like opinion about everything on the fly here. Maybe. Maybe we need to look into the COVID protocols. But I do. But I do know. As I said before, I've talked to you about this. It's.

It. It. They try to closely resemble the jersey color you're wearing as evidence by what we saw the last couple of years. Wow. I'm a, all right. And there's also different colors of Gator on the sideline too.

So it's not just, they just, you know, they typically just don't go, don't go all orange. So last, okay. Against the,

in the AFC championship, Andyed was doused with confetti instead of gatorade please he probably doesn't want to be cold it's freezing huh but i'm wondering but because they're not sharing the the bottles i really wonder if actually no liquid is the play here. Did we just crack a code, or are we just, at this point, just losing steam? I think we're rambling, but might have also cracked a code. I think both are true.

Okay, I'm definitely betting no liquid and red. That's going to be my move. Let's do it. It's the last game of the year, man. Let's make some magic. You got to leave it all out there. All right, buddy. Did we cover everything we wanted?

Did you get all your props in? I think we do. The final prediction. I guess we're both thinking the Chiefs. I have a... It's different. My gambling prediction is... I said the score would be 38-27 Chiefs,

but it's different picking scores and gambling. Again, like three and a half. I just keep doubting Tampa, dude. They keep proving me wrong. I know. I just don't feel like they really belong here. I thought that Green Bay beat them. I thought they don't belong here either, but they keep doing it.

They keep doing it, Matt. Yeah. I will take the Chiefs to to win by one score i'll say seven and it'll be uh 34 27 so you're going with you're going with 34 27 is under then right over 61 geez i can't do math i have to pull up my actual i have an actual calculator look it's great i have like an actual like $10 calculator at my desk that for those it's audio podcast but i have it right here matt can see it it's a yeah it looks like a texas instruments can it can it calculate the the Minnesota Lynx line on there,

or is that unable to? It's a 12-digit electronic calculator. It's a KK83712S. Well, thank you for that serial number. That's riveting information. I am wondering, so it can store 12 pieces of information? Is that every line of your WNBA parlay? It is.

You know what? Screw you, that stupid parlay i the minister of links it was like the indiana who's indiana team fever indiana fever maybe there's some there's some money you made in wnba man that reverse line movement is no joke only sharps are playing those games maybe that's our uh show in march we'll be talking i would like i would like to to our listeners. We will not be doing that. So tough one.

Moving forward, we're going to have our show like usual early in the week. I like to do a show later in the week, Matt, we'll figure out what that show is going to be. Maybe we'll look at futures right away. And then I'm going to take a little bit of break. I'm not quite sure.

I'm also hoping if the bucks win, I know I'm going to have a guest. If the Chiefs win, we're going to work on it too. So we're still going to have a lot of fun next week. Week after that, we might take a little bit of a February break for a little bit and then come roaring back as Frayden Shee hits in March. It's been a long year for everyone. And I'm taking a trip too at the end of the month. So I am out here.

You're not even in New York. You didn't get the two feet of snow. No, I did not. I went to Delaware. Hi. Is Delaware like a... It doesn't even feel like a state. It just feels like a thing that's like...

Our president's from here, man. It's a great state. He has a house actually like 10 miles away from here. Oh. Congratulations. You're basically here. Oh, congratulations. You're basically neighbors. Yeah, that's right.

Yeah, he's going to come over later. All right. We'll end with this. Thank you guys. Our viewers, listeners, everything has increased a lot last month. Really appreciate that, guys. Really appreciate the support. Glad you guys enjoyed Chris and Steven last, last episode and season's over,

man. They made it, they made it. And we've enjoyed bringing the show to you each and every week. Hope you enjoyed, you know, our shenanigans, obviously not,

not, we're not perfect in the gambling world, but we sure enjoy doing this show. I saw a statistic that the over-under in the Super Bowl is exactly 500 over time. And that's us. We're the Super Bowl over-under. We're 500. We were 41-40-4,

buddy. We were a little bit over this year. We did it. That's right. Barely. By a hair. That's us. By a hair we did it. Maybe that's a new title of the podcast. By a hair. We'll work on that later. All right, guys. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

We'll be back next week with a full recap. And we'll have some guests. We'll have some Super Bowl guests, depending on who wins the game. And enjoy the game. Talk to you guys then.