Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Bill Barnwell Values Contracts & Makes Predictions

Episode Date: September 3, 2020

ESPN writer Bill Barnwell joins the show to help explain why running backs don't get long-term deals, how Taysom Hill might fit in with Drew Brees, why Miami is lying to itself and which team he's all-in on this season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Reduced speeds after 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. It's Thursday, September 3rd, and this is Jeff Schwartz of Smart on You. We have a fantastic show for you today. Bill Barnwell, ESPN senior writer, joins me for about 45 minutes. We talk everything to do with previewing the season.

We talk about running back value. We talk about which team is the biggest lie to their self team. We talk about the Patriots, Mohamed Sanu, and Cam Noon. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, who he believes is the best team in the NFC. Kind of a surprise. I did not expect him to say this at the very

end, his Super Bowl pick. So without further ado, let's get right to it. Bill Barnwell with me, Jeff Schwartz. Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. All right, welcome in Bill Barnwell, senior writer at ESPN. I'm trying to look for your bio, by the way, Bill. They're very lacking on a complete definition of your title at ESPN. I was kind of sad. I have to admit that I'm not entirely sure what my title is at ESPN. If you told me senior writer, I'd be like, yeah, sure, probably.

If you told me just regular old writer, also probably true. I don't think it really matters. I write a lot of words about football every week, regardless of what my title is or what my title will be. And Bill does a fantastic job of incorporating the analytics side with the football side. It's a great blend. I learned a lot from reading about football analytics and the way that you break down. So I'm glad to have you on here. And you're also the unofficial stats guy of the podcast. For people that don't know, if you do not work at ESPN or PFF or Fox, you are limited in the stats you can find. And so I asked Bill for stats every now and then,

but I don't even ask him for like ESPN stats. I asked him for stuff I shouldn't be able to search for, like on pro football reference. And I cannot do it. I'm like, Bill, can you tell me the last time a quarterback did this? And he just, in one minute, the results back from pro football focus. So I appreciate the effort you put in because you probably pity that I cannot find the stat I need. Jeff, I can tell you that you're not the only person for whom I do this service. And we all have our strengths, right? I certainly do not know much about offensive line play, always trying to learn and get more. So I pick up stuff from you. It's a whole big family out there on at least some part of football Twitter. There's also very bad parts elsewhere, on at least some part of football twitter there's also very

bad parts elsewhere but at least the parts i like you are at least hopefully learning stuff from people who have knowledge and expertise that you don't have i don't have any offensive line experience or knowledge so i'm always learning from you i feel like i can hopefully give something back by knowing how to look up stuff on pro football reference i learned a lot from you and you know that especially in those monday especially in those Monday morning articles are fantastic. You mentioned Twitter and football and the conversation that we always have, especially right now with Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette is running back value. Running back value. Okay. I'm an offensive lineman. I should love running backs and I do. I was blocking for Adrian Peterson in the 2000 yard season. Carolina double trouble with D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Still the record. Two 1100 yard rushers. Jamal Charles, who would be a Hall of Famer if he wasn't hurt.

I love running backs. But Bill, can you give me a reason why you should ever sign a running back to a long-term contract? I mean, they're good players. And I think you always hear that argument of, oh, well, you got to reward the people in your locker room who play well. And I don't know if that's true. I look at Tennessee, for example, this year as a good example, where we heard that for Derrick Henry of, oh, Derrick Henry balled out last year. You got to give him the money he deserves. Maybe you do. I can't fault that. But at the same time, Tennessee let Jack Conklin leave. Jack Conklin did play well for them last year at right tackle.

Maybe he got more than you would have hoped for, but he deserved to get a contract. He did get a contract from Tennessee. Logan Ryan left, a veteran who gave his heart and soul, you know, outside of quarterbacks, the guys you had on your roster, they were top five picks. They were guys who got paid a ton of money. They were superstars. And I think, you know, as time has gone, we've realized it's not really the case anymore. So I think we sort of have these like outsized expectations and outsized sort of romance for the running back position. And I think, you know, there's no right answer. I mean, obviously the numbers say what they say. It's tough for running backs to be as valuable as players in other positions. But I think once you sort of make your first choice with a running back, you're sort of locking yourself into that case. Like Christian McCaffrey is a good example. I can tell you that typically the Christian McCaffrey is a good example. I can tell you that typically

the Christian McCaffrey contract is not a good idea to hand out. The Todd Gurley contract from two years ago, the David Johnson contract from two years ago, similar examples. And I'm not saying that to criticize Christian McCaffrey because he was awesome last year. I mean, he did every possible thing he could have for that football team. But once you draft Christian McCaffrey with a top 10 pick and he does what he has done over the past two years, you're stuck. There's no alternative. You're not going to let him leave. So I think it's one of those things where teams are sort of locking themselves into a, if this happens, we have to pay this guy scenario the moment they draft a guy, which is, I think,

why you're seeing so many teams over the past couple of years draft guys in the second round, in the third round, and hoping that they develop into, you know, a starter who they can be happy about, but strangely almost not happy enough about to give a long-term contract to. Well, speaking about third-round draft pick, Alvin Kamara of the Saints is a third-round draft pick. He's done a fantastic job. Now, the numbers will show you that he has not been quite as productive as he was in 2017. But nonetheless, a very big part of that offense. Should the Saints give him a long-term contract? Thinking about that, you know, they're going for it now, obviously. But they still have like a young roster around Breeze. So if they get rid of Breeze, they could theoretically bring in someone else and kind of continue to win if that quarterback is semi-competent. Do they want that salary of Alvin Kamara moving forward for the next couple of years?

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I feel like you can make a case for both sides. I think the argument you brought up about Breeze being in a win-now spot makes total sense. And I can't understand why they would trade Kamara now, unless they were going to get a first-round pick, which I don't think they're going to get, as a spoiler. But if you're going to trade him for a two, as opposed to just waiting for a year, having him play that final year of his rookie deal, letting him leave after the year,

and getting a third or a fourth-round compensatory pick, I think that's the much better option than trading him right now, unless you're going to get that first, which, again, I don't think is likely. In terms of his production, I go back to the first decade of this Sean Payton offense, they had Reggie Bush in that role to start his career. They're not the same sort of player, but they have similarities for sure. Reggie Bush was the number two overall pick, if I'm not mistaken, and he was good, but he probably wasn't second overall pick. Mario Williams turned out to be a better football player, I think, in the long run than Reggie Bush. So Reggie Bush leaves, they bring in Darren

Sproles, who had just gotten off of his time with the Chargers. Darren Sproles is great. For three years, had a pretty reasonable salary. He moves on. They draft Kamara in the third round. Not like a top five pick, but a guy in the third round. Plug him in. Hey, he turns out to be a superstar. So I think in the short term, you're kind of sitting here saying, man, I just can't imagine how this offense wouldn't take a major step backwards without Alvin Kamara. But then in the big picture, you think about how they've been able to find guys to play that role pretty reliably. And you kind of think, okay, well, why can't they just go into the third round next year and find the next Alvin Kamara? It's really tough for running backs because Kamara has done everything you could have hoped for.

But I just think that role is more valuable than any one individual player who might fill that role and it's going to be a good class for running backs i believe looking in very ahead to the draft in in april or chuba hubbard the kid from memphis as well cj verdell at oregon uh there'll be a good travis etn who'll probably be the first running back taking off the board there's a lot of of backs and they have look the look, the Saints have Taysom Hill, right? Future superstar, a do-all guy. You know, you pay him $21 million, you better give him the rock, right?

I mean, I don't get that. That's another topic. I want to ask you. Yes. What do you think the Saints are going to do with Taysom Hill this upcoming year and then next year

in the final year of his contract when he's getting like $15 million? I don't know. I think what they're doing now, three, four times a game, you bring him in the zone read. I mean, he's only attempted 13 passes in his entire career. Bill, the most telling part to me was when Drew Brees went out and they stopped using him. But I will say, I want to give you – I thought about this thoroughly because I think it's always good to think about the other side, obviously, of an argument, is that when he's the third quarterback, you feel more comfortable playing him because if he gets hurt, whatever, you have

Teddy Bridgewater. But if he's now the backup, you can't put him in those situations. So like, there is a sort of an explanation, I think, that can explain why he did not play when Bridgewater was in there. But if you're going to pay him that much money, then this year in that same situation, if Winston's in the game, for example, you have to play Taysom Hill. He's too expensive to just sit out. I just think they're paying him, to your point about running backs,

about McCaffrey, because he does the right thing. He works hard. The team likes him. And so we're going to reward you for those reasons. And we're going to give you this money. I don't really see an expanded role in that offense for him other than what they're doing. No, he's not a good passer. And you're going to take off a Hall of Fame quarterback.

That was funny. Troy Aikman, he got caught in the playoff game saying, right, I can't believe, you know, I would never take out a Hall of Fame quarterback. And KC Mo then completed like the one pass he completed all season, which is amazing timing. But Troy's right. Troy's right. You, I would never take off drew breeze.

And I even, it's so funny, Bill. I, I was big spread offense guy in office in college. And I've gone the other direction now where I'm just like pro style offense, pro style offense.

Like why, why would you take drew breeze out? Unless it's like third and run a third and two to put Taysom Hill in? You should never do that. Okay. Here's my theory. And this is probably going to look stupid in a couple months, but this is my theory on Taysom Hill and how his role might expand. I think you look at Drew Brees.

He has struggled in the postseason the past two years. And he was great. He really struggled in the second half of 2018. He was really good when he came back from the injury in 2019. He looked pretty fresh in December. He had good numbers in December. And then January comes, kind of a downer game against Minnesota. I'm not concerned about Drew Brees tiring out all that much.

But I think there is an offense where Taysom Hill's strengths can play up. I think there is an offense where Taysom Hill's strengths can play up. And I think it's an offense that Sean Payton saw when he was out of football for a year and coaching his son's sixth grade Pop Warner team. Do you know what kind of offense they lost to twice that year? Probably a veer offense. They lost to the single wing. It's a shortened, condensed schedule. I mean, the Saints are not going to become a single-wing football team, but could they run more Wildcat stuff and more single-wing stuff just to give teams something to think about and just to give Drew Brees a rest? I think they could. Now, I wouldn't want to do that as my base offense. I agree with you. I'd rather have Drew Brees on the field every snap. you know we can give teams more to practice for more to kind of throw toss them up and sort of you know give drew breeze a rest and have him fresh for january i i could see them doing something like that for for more than the snaps taste and hill is getting for most of last season

i mean i i that's the best explanation i've gotten so far by the way everyone should follow chris brown at smart football i mean he's the smartest human I've ever met about football. It's unbelievable. Chris and I talk all the time about stuff. He asked me the other day about a protection that was primarily run in the 80s with the 49ers offense. And I was like, Bill, I mean, I'm like, Chris, I love you, man, but I don't have film of that. I don't know where to find that film.

I mean, he showed me the clip. I actually looked. I went and tried to find the protection that was a specific rollout protection and i've installed it on one team i was on but i couldn't find the whole thing um man again like how many yards you i guess the idea that you're that you are that you would fool teams and make them spend extra time working on it is 100 accurate because teams would do that um And you definitely would get them early on. But remember back to the Dolphins Wildcat in 2008. It worked for two whole weeks.

Now, that was their entire offense. It's different when you have to prepare for Drew Brees. But are you going to take six yards of carry in that offense or Drew Brees throwing to Michael Thomas instead? Right, I agree. I don't think it was a good contract, to be clear. But I think having seen the contract, I'm trying to it was a good contract, to be clear. But I think having seen the contract, I'm trying to think, okay, well, how could we possibly make sense of

this? It's so weird. I think it was an overpay. I think there may be concerns someone else is going to try and sign him, maybe unrealistically. I don't think there was a huge market for Taysom Hill. The other thing that comes into play with Taysom Hill that I think people don't realize is the perception that he is the Saints quarterback of the future. It's not just an issue with him not taking many stops at quarterback, but he's already 30 years old. I think he was on a Mormon mission, if I'm not mistaken. was a very traditional quarterback in college and a very successful traditional quarterback in college. He's a guy who was already on the wrong side of 30. And so it's not like he's 23 or 24 and the Saints have him for cheap for a few years while he's going to cast the time to grow into the position. He is a guy who needs to play now. And so I am pretty skeptical he is going to be their quarterback of the future in the long run. But I mean, they're paying him like he's going to have that kind of role.

No, I think Winston can be much better. I think actually think that Winston, if given an opportunity to start somewhere, would be obviously better. I mean, last year, such an outlier. I mean, his career never thrown more than 18 interceptions. That was very fun to watch. And as someone who loves watching football, that offense was incredible to watch. But nonetheless, let's move on to Jacksonville real quick, because I have a theory on what's happening with Jacksonville.

And it's something my high school football coach told us all the time. It's the best advice I've ever gotten in life. He said, Bill, don't lie to yourself, right? Don't lie to yourself. So, you know, obviously in the football field, you know if you're putting the work in, you know if the play was good or not, You know all those things, right? Jacksonville, after 2017, they lied to themselves about what they are as a team. They went with Blake Bortles and this kind of outdated idea of an offense, which is run the football first, and then obviously defense. And defense, you have to play defense, right? The Chiefs improved their defense by, you know, by—

Leaps and bounds, yeah. 7, 8, 10, 12 spots, and they were better. And they won the Super Bowl. Helped them win the Super Bowl. defense right the Chiefs improved their defense by you know by leaps and bounds yeah seven eight ten twelve spots and they were better and they won the Super Bowl helped them with Super Bowl but offense obviously in the end I think through a whole season now is what you need and they lied to themselves and now with Leonard Fournette gone they're kind of rebuilding do you agree with the with the principle of NFL teams lied to themselves they And I think with Bortles, it's sort of like, it's confirmation bias. It's sort of, hmm, what would be the best way to describe this in terms of like layperson, not football stuff? It just sort of like, you know, if you... I mean, I think it's sort of like

you have a terrible, you have like an uneven spouse and they do, and they have three months where they're good. And then you're like, oh, this is who they are. I'm back in the boat with them. And then it just goes to shit again for a year. Right. I feel like with Blake Bortles, they drafted him very high. And there were other teams who were interested, but it's not as if Blake Bortles was Joe Burrow or Andrew Luck coming out of school. There were major questions about Blake Bortles' ability to get his mechanics right, to be accurate. This is a guy who was supposed to take his rookie year off to rebuild his mechanics. He was in the lineup, I think, week three of the negatives about Bortles or sort of downplaying them,

saying, oh, he'll improve those. And then when there were positive signs, they would sort of, you know, glom onto them and be super excited and, you know, kind of point to it. And then they got that season where, you know, the defense was great. They had the young players come through the free agents they added, you know, played really well. The defense was awesome, but no issue with the defense at all. And Bortles, of held up his end of the bargain, and that was enough for them to take it as far as they did. I mean, that was a team that nearly lost to the Bills in a terrible playoff game in the wildcard round because they only lost because Tyrod Taylor was worse than Bortles in that game and couldn't do anything else. That was 10-3, right? I think it was 10-3 because Bortles converted like a fourth and one on the goal line to score for the only touchdown of the game, if I'm not mistaken. Nathan Peterman also, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, came to that game for a couple snaps.

And then, you know, they're competitive with the Steelers. Bortles pretty good. I don't think why they won that game, but better. And the Patriots, of course, almost make it to the Super Bowl. I don't think why they won that game, but better. And the Patriots, of course, almost make it to the Super Bowl. And hey, I mean, Bortles did have that four-touchdown game against the Patriots, I think, week two after signing that extension. But I think it was a situation where when you have teams who draft these quarterbacks super high in the draft, you have a GM who his job is almost always dependent upon that quarterback's team. A coach who has bought in.

These scouts who bought in. Ownership that quarterback's team. A coach who has bought in, these scouts who bought in, ownership that has bought in. Everyone there wants him to be the guy they all expect. And so I think you sort of have this model of teams fooling themselves into believing all the positive traits about that guy. And I think it's tough. We all make picks as fans, as analysts. Last year, I picked the Panthers to improve. And they lose Cam week one. And I'm like, they almost beat the Rams. They'll be okay. And then Kyle Allen gets hot. And I'm like, what a genius I am. Even without Cam, they're going to improve on their record because they have Kyle Allen. And then the second half happens. And I'm

like, okay, I got it wrong. It happens. Um, you know, but, but obviously the stakes are a lot lower when it's not my job at the line for one prediction or one pick. So I feel like, you know, uh, you know, teams are not as fluid. They're not as easy or quick to give up on players as fans are. And I think sometimes it's a, sometimes that's a positive, you know, you don't want to trade LeBron after every, you know, 15-point game he has. But I think that you do see teams maybe hold on to players or their belief of what a player can be for a little too long. So which team in 2020 is a lie-to-yourself team? There's a few options, right? The Bears is an option.

The Patriots. And we'll get into Sanu in a second and Cam Newton because I want to talk to you about them. But I think Bill Belichick's honest with what's happening. Yes. It feels like the Bears again. The Bears. They've lied to themselves and it might be over pretty soon. You wouldn't say the Bills are in that discussion? Okay. We're going to have a separate thing about Josh Allen because you know how much I love him. Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. I think the Bills are close to being in that same spot after this season. They're my 2021 lie to themselves team because I don't think

Josh Allen's going to, I don't think they're going to be good this year. I mean, their past defense jump is the highest in the NFL and they're going to be stuck with Josh Allen next year. They're going to lie to themselves like all these other teams are doing. I think the Bears are in that spot right now. I think the Bears are in that discussion. And I think that they sort of got themselves in that situation because they committed so hard to the Climac trade and said, OK, we can win with Mitch as our quarterback. And we don't need resources to get a new quarterback if things go wrong. And obviously they have. I would honestly throw the Dolphins out there as a team that is kind of lying to themselves. Because I think not only the Dolphins organization, but also all of us are sort of sitting here saying, man, Brian Flores did such

a good job last year. They beat the Patriots in week 17 when they had nothing to play for. They just need a few more pieces and they're going to be a competitive team this year. Dolphins were not a good team last year. I mean, they were 3.9 expected wins, last in DVOA by a considerable margin. They did get better as the year went on, and I think Flores did do a good job, but this is a team that has a brand new offensive line. Their line was terrible last year. They could improve and still be

the worst line in football this year. And I don't even like Austin Jackson either. I don't think he was drafted way too high. Right. We'll find out, but certainly there's major question marks about that line coalescing. Obviously, any line that's sort of, you know, starting anew is in a position where they have to kind of, you know, go through some growing pains early in this particularly weird

season. But, you know, it wouldn't shock me if the Dolphins were right where they are this time next year and sort of sitting here saying, well, you know, we use all those draft picks. We spent a ton of money in free agency, and we ended up in the exact same spot we were without having done all that last year. So they seem like a team where I think because of what happened in week 17, they might be lying to themselves a little bit. Interesting, because they're going to start fits, which makes sense. I wonder when they go to Tua, but I do not think they're going to be good. I'm not one of those people. I would take the under

in their win total just for the reasons you said, because they're- Can I read you their schedule, the way yes so their early schedule when you talk about when to bring into a week one they're at the patriots patriots defense is gonna take a step backwards they lost a bunch of guys they're not going to intercept five percent of the passes but patriots defense still pretty good yes bills in week two so then jaguars week three okay that's not quite as bad but seahahawks week four, Niners week five, Broncos week six, Chargers week seven. So to me, if you're the Dolphins and you want to give Tua Tengovailoa the right opportunity to take over, I'm probably waiting until week nine. Because you have Cardinals, Jets, Biweek, Jets, Bengals.

I think that's the point where you put him in, kind of hope that that's the point where you can sort of give him a soft landing as you improve over the second half of the season. But that's a brutal stretch of defenses for any quarterback to go up against during the first half of the year. And there's no reason to play to it either. And I think that the Dolphins understand they're not going to be very good. But I think to your point about the fans, fans definitely think they're good. I don't get it. I keep telling people, like, what do you guys know? Your team is too young. Their offensive line is not good enough.

I don't know why they're a thing. Sticking in the AFC East, the Patriots cut Mohamed Sanu, which was an awful, awful trade for Belichick. I'm much higher on Cam Noon than I think some are, which is odd because I used to be pretty low on Cam Noon than I think some are, which is odd because I used to be pretty low on Cam Noon. I think he fits his offense great. Now, he might not have anyone

to throw to, but how do you think he fits in this offense? I think the Patriots are, I would pick them to win the AFC East. It's almost, again, I'm previewing

my Josh Allen hatred coming in second, but I just think the Patriots are still going to win the division. Their defense is going to be good still. Not going to be as good as last year, like you said, but Cam Noon fits this offense very well.

I think so too. And I think the point I've brought up in places is the idea that he's not just a replacement for Grady. I think he's a replacement for Rob Gronkowski as well. And when I say that, what I mean is you look at this Patriots offense over the last decade or 15 years, whatever. I mean, the scheme hasn't changed all that much. They've obviously gone with more spread looks when they had Moss and Welker. They've gone with more 12 personnel when they had Hernandez and Gronk. But basically, the thing I think they do really well is that they take advantage of your defensive personnel with mismatches. So they're very comfortable coming out with three or four wide receivers, spreading you out and running the football. And they're also very comfortable coming out with two tight ends, a running back, a fullback, getting in a big package and throwing the football off a play who can block maybe not as well as an offensive line, but pretty darn close as far as tight ends go.

And he can run routes, not like a wide receiver, but pretty darn close to a wide receiver. So he was that mismatch that sort of allowed them to dictate what they want to do with personnel, because no matter what personnel grouping they were in, Gronk was going to be a mismatch for whatever they wanted to do with the football. Now, there's no replacing Gronk. And we did see last year their numbers dropped off precipitously without Gronk on the field. They were very predictable. Yeah, that's the word I was looking for. And so when Michel came on the field, they were, I think, the most run-heavy team in football. He was the most obvious tell on the league in terms of running backs for how frequently they ran the football. And with James White, as you might expect, they were the fifth most heavy pass team in the league. white as you might expect they were the fifth uh most heavy pass team in the league so now you had cam and i think what he does is he gives you that versatility back because now if you want to spread the field and get three four white house in the field cam's going to be able to check to run plays and cam's going to have the ability to run over you know a light box and run you know some basic run concepts there and i think when they want to come out with you know a fullback and a running

back and two tight ends and sort of threatened to run duo or run power and sort of run their core run concepts or run outside zone with big bodies in there, Cam's going to operate off a play action. He's a very effective play action passer. So I feel like they can absolutely make this work. Now, the big question, I think, is can Cam stay healthy? That's, I think, a fair question after the last few years. But I think that if he is healthy, and I think he is right now, he can be a very productive quarterback for the Patriots in this offense. I love that answer because I'm with you there. I'll tell you what.

One guy to watch in that team is Devin Asiati. He was drafted out of UCLA. He averaged, I think, 18 or 19 yards of reception at UCLA last year. I think he could be – he's not Gronk, obviously. But I think he can fill that role much better. And they'll be able to do – the Patriots are the best in the NFL at that little power pass, right, where they pull one of the guards and the tight end kind of leaks over the middle of the field.

And I feel like that could be a big part of their offense with Devin Asiati. And I think that that – to your point about Cam, there's talk about them getting four net and maybe they do, maybe they don't, but Cam is four net, right? Like when they need him to run on third down, the mismatch is there.

Cause you, you have an extra blocker. It's, it's, and I think that, I think with Cam is that I think that they, they have to let him run. Cause that makes him a better quarterback.

I don't think ideally they would, they wouldn't, I mean, you wouldn't run him as much, but that's kind of who he is, right? Like, like the Pats are going to do it three, four times a game to keep people honest. Yeah. And I think realistically, you know, Carolina, they really changed their offense some after 2018 or tried to change their offense because they wanted to keep Cam healthy because they had Cam signed to a long-term contract. So they bring in North Turner, they get the ball

out quicker. You know, they bring in weapons to get the ball out in space. They don't rely on Cam to convert every third and two or fourth and one. And they don't have him hold the ball for six seconds before throwing a 35-yard pass downfield. The Patriots have no such qualms. Cam is a free agent after the season. He can do – I mean, if they want to ride Cam into the ground, which I'm not saying I endorse.

I want him to be healthy and play well for a long time. They, if they want to ride Cam into the ground, which I'm not saying I endorse. I want him to be healthy and play well for a long time. They can if they want to. They have no reason to sit here and say we have to worry about the next five years with Cam Newton. So I think they will be smart. Again, I think they'll give Cam the opportunity to check the stuff. I think they'll give him the opportunity to say, hey, slide and protect yourself and be smart about how you use your body. We're going to be a playoff team if you stay healthy. So protect yourself like we need to worry about the future. And I

think that can work. I'm with you there. All right, let's get to Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. You did a great job, by the way. If you want to go look at your archives, you wrote every third year quarterbacks, including Lamar and Sam Darnold. But if you look at Baker and Josh Allen, which guy do you think has the most to prove this year? Who needs to have this season go really well for them in order to maybe convince their team to not lie to themselves about their talent? I think Baker, because I think Josh Allen, unless he has a total disaster of a season, I think the Bills, maybe in that lying-to-themselves vein, will sit here and give him one more season as the starter. Maybe they'll bring in competition.

Maybe they'll bring in another guy. But I think Josh Allen would still have a very viable shot at the starting job in 2021. With Baker, I don't know. Because, I mean, Baker was very good as a rookie. Nobody doubts that. But he was a disaster last year. And that offense, on the whole, was an absolute mess last year. It was poorly coached. It was sloppy. I mean, there were so many times where just, you know, you would see guys running routes to different lengths where you know what the route's supposed to be. You know how long it went supposed to be broken off. screens where just, you know, offensive linemen would be, you know, because the timing was wrong or the placement was wrong or the, you know, they were in the wrong spot at the wrong time. You know, guys were getting hit before any lineman could get over to block for anything.

You know, it just felt like it was, you know, a schoolyard offense and that they have tons of talents. There were weeks where that worked because they were just so overwhelmingly talented at the skill position spots. But I mean, their line was a mess. And when they played smart defenses, typically, they weren't able to hold up their end of the bargain. So I think it's on Baker to prove that he's part of the solution and not part of the problem. He doesn't have to be a superstar, but I think he has to be a guy who looks prepared, a guy who looks like he is, you know, improving, like his footwork has to be more consistent. He has to be better in the pocket. He can't just bail out of the pocket at the first hint of danger, the way he would do at

times last year. Um, and I think you want to see a guy who just, you know, looks more like the guy who was in control at Oklahoma during his first season with the Browns. It doesn't have to be a guy who, you know who throws 50 touchdowns. I don't think that's going to happen. But if he looks like a professional, I think that's a big step forward. I think a big reason for the Browns to keep him as their starter in 2021. And this offense, I think he actually will have a good season. I do too.

Good might be much. I think he'll have a better season. I mean, look, a play action pass pass, move-the-pocket offense gives you less options to screw up, essentially, right? It does. It's a one-or-two read. It's a run-or-two read, right? Especially a play-action pass.

You read a linebacker. You read a safety. You hit this guy. You check down. And so I think that the offense will help him, but it could get to the point where he's good enough for the Browns to believe in him, and they're very talented.

They have a really good team. If Baker can play average to good football, I'm excited to watch him. Actually. I never said that about the Browns before. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I, you know, I was not on that hype train last year. I was the prior two years, but the tackles were a big concern. I mean, that was, it was pretty clear.

Their line was going to be the thing that held them back and that turned out to be the case. I'm not sure I saw them being as bad as they were, to be honest with you. Yeah, but Baker had really bad pocket presence last year. I think the offensive line got blamed for a lot more than actually was happening. For sure. I think that's fair. He saw – Sam Darnold famously said he was seeing ghosts.

So did Baker all year. Right. I think maybe a better way to put it is that it was clear he had, or at least a better way to put it on my side. It was clear he had absolutely no faith in the offensive line and maybe he should have had more faith than he deserved. But I can tell you, I mean, I've, I've gone to Lincoln Riley's clinic. He did a clinic in Las Vegas a couple of years ago that I went to.

And so much of it is just, this is how we train guys to not only work out of the pocket, but also work out of the pocket under pressure, all these different drills they do. It's such a focus for that program. And Baker, this is after Baker's great season. So it was like, yeah, Baker does all this stuff really well. It was before Kyler got drafted. So it's kind of like, this is what Kyler does well as well. You know, I feel like they got away from that last year. It felt like Baker just had no confidence in his line, but at the slightest amount of pressure, he didn't want to get hit. So he was going to bail out. You even saw, if you go back to the final play of the Rams-Browns game, you'll watch Clay Matthews.

Clay Matthews is rushing on the left side against the right tackle, and he doesn't even try to rush Baker. He knows the moment Baker feels pressure, he's bailing out to the right. Clay Matthews is rushing on the left side against the right tackle. And he doesn't even try to rush Baker. He knows the moment Baker feels pressure, he's bailing out to the right. Clay Matthews goes to where Baker is going to be and blows up the play to end the game. I mean, it was that predictable that, you know, I'm sure Clay Matthews, a veteran player, if I can see it, I know Clay Matthews can. Oh, yeah. I mean, and you can you can pass rush that stuff up to to make sure that you pass rush and a quarterback goes goes to one side.

Staying in the AFC, I know it's been pretty AFC heavy today, but that's where it feels like a lot of the topics are. Why are the Steelers the third best team in the AFC conference? Why are they? I think they're the third best team. I think so too. Oh, you do? Okay, good.

Oh, we're on the same. I can't find anyone to agree with me on this. I think they might be the second best team in the conference over who the ravens yeah oh okay i mean it seems like a pretty easy case right i made the case that by the way i made the case that they have the best super bowl value plus 2500 i agree with you. I agree with you. 100%. I agree with you. It doesn't seem like it's that hard of a case to make. That defense was very good last year. And they're very young. They brought back everyone except for Javon Hargrove.

But you might expect guys like Devin Bush to play more, be more effective. They're not going to force as many takeaways. They were just so freakishly good at that last year. It's just tough to count on that happening year after year. But this offense was so bad last year. I mean, this was a team. I think 32nd in DVOA. 32nd in DVOA, I believe.

They averaged one point per possession in offense over the second half. This is a kind of mediocre NBA team would be better on offense than the Steelers were last year, which is pretty scary. And it wasn't just Ben Roethlisberger getting hurt. It was James Conner getting hurt. It was Juju Smith-Schuster getting hurt. It was the other five or six running backs on the roster seemingly getting hurt. And losing Ben, of course, was an enormous drop-off. They did not have a plan B.

They don't have a plan B this year, which scares me a little bit, but I think they thought Mason Rudolph was going to be a viable quarterback. I don't think he is. Maybe he will be. No. Certainly. Bill, he's not.

There's always a chance he can get better, but I don't think that's about to happen. But here's the thing about this. I would love to be romantic about quarterbacks and where they get drafted, but typically your franchise guys are first round or early to mid-second round draft picks. Yes, you have your Russell Wilson and your Dak Prescott. We'll get to him in a second.

But I feel like Mason Rudolph is a mid-to-late round draft pick. He's not going to be good. You can't expect him to be your franchise quarterback. Right. I don't expect him to be your franchise quarterback. Right. I mean, I always... When I wrote about him last year when Ben got hurt, Steelers fans did not like my argument.

But my argument was basically if you have a guy who falls to the third or fourth round as a quarterback and you take him, it's better to go after a guy like a Russell Wilson, obviously, knowing in hindsight, but just a guy who has

like an obvious flaw that makes you think even if he's talented, he wouldn't have been taken on the first round or maybe early in the second round. Mason Rudolph is a tall white dude. He looks like every cliche of what a quarterback in the NFL typically looks like. So if he was really good at football, he would have gone on the first round. There would have been no reason for him to drop to the third or fourth round. I think if you have a guy who's short or a guy who doesn't play quarterback the way a typical quarterback does, or a guy who had injuries in school that prevented him from getting scouted, I think those are the guys you want to target a quarterback in the

middle rounds as opposed to a guy who is six foot four or whatever and looks like the star James Van Der Beek in Angus. Oh God, they can't, they can't throw in those movies. I think there needs to be some sort of czar who oversees sports movies that want like serious sports movies that want to be sports movies and like actually shows them how to create football action. Right.

Like I just, you watch a movie, you're like, Oh, it's not actually like, come on. You know what? You know what I, you know what? This is what I hate the most. This is very, it's a movie, you're like, oh, it's not actually like, come on. You know what? You know what I, you know what?

This is what I hate the most. This is very, it's a very specific thing to me. When you're watching, like when you're watching, what's the show on Last Chance U or watch any of these shows and they actually do not go in order of the game when they're showing you the game. Yes. And you can tell because different, things are different on the field from the one play to the next play and they make it sound like they're in order. And it drives me crazy, Bill. Do you notice that also?

I know exactly what you mean. And I don't like it either. I find it very frustrating. I'm just like so nerdy. Like, that's not the same play. Who cares about the story? That's not the same play. Okay. I got two NFC questions. We did our win totals this year and there's two teams that – one I can't figure out and one I think that no one's really talking about but in the wrong way, the Cowboys. I looked at the NFC East for our win totals. I came into it wanting to take Philly in the NFC East and Dallas second. But I just can't do it.

Dallas is really talented. They're a really good team. Do you think they can kind of revamp themselves? I mean, they were decent enough on offense last year, but it just didn't work last year. Do you think McCarthy in year one can get them moving in the right direction? Because I think they're really talented now. Is Dak the guy?

I don't want to have that argument. He's like, he can be. I don't really know. But does McCarthy get them in a different direction than Garrett was able to do? I mean I'm all in on the Cowboys. OK. You are. OK.

I got to be honest with you. I think I picked them as my number one seed when I did my podcast with Shilka Patti where we were picking the playoff teams. I mean I am a big numbers guy, as you know, as you mentioned. And the numbers aren't everything. But I think they are going to give us more insight than maybe we would have watching all the teams from week to week. I agree with you. Over time, it bears out to be correct. For sure.

I mean, the Cowboys were number two in DVOA on offense last year. Now, would I think the Chiefs are better? Of course. But the Chiefs didn't have Patrick Mahomes for 16 games. And I would say to the Chiefs, if they had Mahomes for 16 games, they'd be number one. Ravens would be number two. The Cowboys would be number three. But you get the point.

The Cowboys had a good offense last year. They just were not good at the right times. And they were a team that they were eight and two in one score games in 2018. So basically the same roster. I mean, I can't think of many guys who left the team in 2018. If anything, they were better because they had Robert quinn who was pretty good last year in 2019 they went from eight and two in those games to oh and five so if you think that dak prescott suddenly forgot how to win close games or barry cooper was you know suddenly forgot wasn't uh brave enough to win the close ones like it's just right just

the reality if we play a 16 game schedule and you know on a play-to-play basis, stuff goes right for you. It doesn't go right from year to year. The reality is you look at every team throughout history, the vast, vast, vast majority of teams who go 8-2 in one-score games are not 8-2 the following year. And the same is true for teams who go 0-5. They improve not only their record in close games, but their overall record the following season. So, to me, I think the Cowboys last year, very unlucky and still managed to go 8-8. improve not only their record in close games but their overall record the following season so to me i think the cowboys last year very unlucky and still managed to go eight and eight um i have a lot of faith in the offense i think it's going to be a really good offense this year i would have

liked the defense to have gerald mccoy i think it's a bummer that he got hurt i don't think it's going to be a great defense by any means but could they be you know could it be in this situation where they're like three or fourth on offense and 12th or 13th on defense? Absolutely. I could see that working out. And I think to me, that's an 11, one football team.

So, you know, I know what the number is. I know it's nine and a half in some places and 10 and other places. I think you want the nine and a half if you can get it. But, you know, to me, I think they're the,

especially after the Eagles injuries already. I mean, I think they're, they're prohibitive favorites at this point for me to win the NFC East. Well, the NFC East. Yeah.

I mean the number one seat. Okay. I, I, I think they're brave. I, I, I kind of like it.

Um, I just, the only worry I have with McCarthy is that he did get really stale in green Bay. Oh, for sure. And I, this is year one.

And I don't know if that's going to carry. Like, okay, here's my point. A lot of coaches say I'm going to be different and they, they don't know if that's going to carry over. Okay, here's my point. A lot of coaches say, I'm going to be different. And they don't end up being different. So I'm curious to see if McCarthy is going to take input from Kellen Moore. Because obviously the Cowboys offense for the first three weeks of the season

was a different offense than the rest. It felt like Jason Garrett was like, I'm taking the offense back over again. And so is McCarthy going to actually adapt and not be in these static formations and run these static pass plays? And if I see them come out early in the season and they are more multiple in offense, I'm with you. I think that they're talented enough. And the Niners probably take a little bit of a step back just naturally.

The Packers aren't as good. The Saints are going to be good. But 13 games again, I don't know. just naturally the packers aren't as good the saints are going to be good but i you know i have 13 games again i don't know i probably maybe i don't know but yeah the one seed makes sense here's here's my team of the year bill in the nfc one with this this is my team of the year of around all conferences but but the nfc in specific who's gonna have be like oh my god that team won four or five games you ready for for it? Uh-oh. The LA Rams. Oh, no.

Am I wrong on that? I mean, I am more optimistic about the Rams than you, but I could absolutely see that being the case as well. Because, look, you either get better or worse, right, in the offseason. And I know the Rams are pretty much set at, you know, corner and they added Ramsey and obviously Aaron Donald but like I feel like they just didn't get better on offense they drafted a running back in the second round their offensive line is is not any better if you watch hard knocks it looks

atrocious it looks even worse and I know Aaron Donald's really good but it just it looks like it looks even worse and I I have not seen McVay adjust his offense with his offensive line not being able to block zone anymore. And I'm just concerned that golf is just blah. Their offense is no different than usual, and they're just thinking any better. And the rest of their division all got better this offseason, except Seattle. Seattle just has Russell Wilson. Yeah, that goes a long way. And you have Russell Wilson.

That's pretty good. And you had Jamal Adams as well. We can talk about the Jamal Adams addition, but I think that's a positive step for them in terms of adding talent. Yeah. I mean, I'm more optimistic that McVay is going to have more answers this year than you. But I do absolutely think it's a totally fair assumption to make because he didn't have the answers last year. It's not like they came out after that Patriots game, after the Bears game from 2018 and said,

okay, we're changing our play-action concepts. We're running a ton more, you know, we're going to change our concepts and be more, you know, and have that plan B. They didn't have that plan B. They tried. A couple weeks, the Bears minor football game or center football game, they ran a bunch of duo for the first time, which they had to do because their offensive line couldn't have that plan. They tried. A couple of weeks. Little stuff. The Bears might not have a football game or some football game.

They ran a bunch of duo for the first time, which they had to do because their offensive line couldn't run zone anymore. And then they just didn't do it again after that game. Right. Right. And I think that's the tough part is that their offense for the first couple of years when Fay was there was just, we're going to run outside zone. We're going to run play action off outside zone. And then we're going to make everything look the same. We're going to have some wrinkles here and there to attack your checks.

And then we're going to be good look the same. We're going to have some wrinkles here and there to attack your checks. And then we're going to be good to go. And that worked. And then I think with Kyle Shanahan, for example, we saw the Kyle Shanahan in that Super Bowl against the Patriots when he was running the Falcons. When they crowded the line, he ran crack toss and said, OK, we're going to just toss the ball. It'll be fine. We don't have to worry about your solution for stopping this with crowding the the line of scrimmage and then the patriots had to back off now can the um you know i was surprised mcveigh didn't have an answer in season my hope is that with an off season to reflect with a you know change in personnel with more 12 personnel maybe

with gerald effort back in the lineup maybe they will have more answers and be a little more physical and have those um you know sort of more play-action concepts built off of different run concepts than the outside zone base. But I don't know if that's the case. I mean, like you said, that offensive line, they sort of were just running it back. They brought back Andrew Whitworth, who was, I think, a guy who deserves so much recognition, but a guy at this point in his career who maybe, you know, is not what he was in years past. Rob Havenstein, who was a very good tackle the first two years of the McVay era, was a mess last year and got benched. The interior of their line is basically, you know, guys that they drafted who are coming off of injuries. And you might piece together a good offensive line, but this is a team that also, on top of that, by the way, replaced all three coordinators. I think the offense is not going to be all that much different,

but you haven't had a ton of practice time for these guys to prove what they can do and install new concepts. So I think they have that sort of top-level talent where if McVay does get it right, they can be in good shape. But I could absolutely see them being a five or six win team this year. I think that's absolutely within the realm of possibility. I feel like there's that one surprising. All right, we're in with this. Super Bowl champ, who do you got? Chiefs repeating?

I mean, that's like, that's the boring answer. But I mean, everything you can possibly think of would be the Chiefs, right? Yeah. I mean, the one team is, I think, Baltimore, which I'm a little bit worried about. Just the vibe. I don't quite like the vibe up there. But, you know, the whole Earl Thomas thing. I just – Lamar Jackson talking about like Nene Antonio Brown kind of worried me.

Like that was really weird. But, I mean, Baltimore, it's either Super Bowl or bus. I mean, like it's their time to do it now. I mean, there's no excuses left for them. And they know that. And I think it's – obviously, we haven't had I mean, there's no excuses left for them, and they know that. And I think it's, obviously, we haven't had a repeat champion since 2004, I believe. It's just hard to repeat.

And the Chiefs are the best team, I think, but the odds would tell you that it's just hard to do. Oh, sure. But I mean, it's also hard to go 14-2 again. I was actually looking at it for SportsCenter. I mean, I looked at every 14, 15, 16-win team over the past 30 years. They won an average of 10 games the following year. I mean, just so much stuff has to go right for you to win that many games. And the Ravens were not all that great on defense last

year until they got Marcus Peters basically in a salary dump from the Rams. And he tried to be an all-pro, a guy who has been talented, but super inconsistent over the course of his career. They lost Marshall Yonda, who was a guy who, if you're a listener to this show, you probably know, but a Hall of Fame caliber guard. And they're very good at drafting and developing linemen, but you can't just – It's a big loss. You can't just expect anybody to turn into Marshall Yonda. It's just not realistic.

They were the healthiest offense in football last year. And I think Lamar is great at protecting himself and not taking extra hits and getting out of balance. He's phenomenal at it, but he's still running the ball 10, 11 times a game. And you're going to have more risks than if you're, you know, Philip Rivers, who's just going to check the ball down and, you know, sorry, just, you know, spike the ball if he has pressure on him. You know, so I think there's always that risk of a Lamar injury costing them at least a couple of games here and there. So, you know, to me, I think the Ravens are going to be a 10, 11 win football team. I think they're going to be right up there with the Steelers for the AFC North. But I think just, I mean, the Chiefs are in such good

position given their continuity, given their talent, given the chances that they're better in the regular season this year than they were a year ago. I just wouldn't want to, I wouldn't want to have to sit here all season knowing I picked against the Chiefs and then everyone just being scared that they're going to dominate every possible team they play. That's very fair. Well, Bill, really appreciate you having you on. Thank you so much. Go follow

Bill and Bill Barnwell. I'm telling you guys, the combination of the analytics and football, actual football, and knowing what he's talking about in the analytics and football, like actual football, and knowing what he's talking about in the analytics, it's fabulous. Go follow Bill.

Go read his stuff. Bill, I really appreciate you joining me. Thank you so much. You know what, man. Anytime. That was fabulous from Bill. Really appreciate him joining us. Hope you guys have a fabulous weekend.

It's a Labor Day weekend without a lot of college football. Kind of feels odd. But Monday we'll be back. Excuse me, Tuesday. Tuesday we will be back. And we have only a week left until the first NFL game of the year. We'll be back on Tuesday talking about everything NFL. Please rate, review, subscribe.

Have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to everyone later.