Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Brady Loses Big, Tua Outduels Kyler & We Pick AFC Favorites

Episode Date: November 10, 2020

Tom Brady had the worst loss of his career in a division matchup against Drew Brees and Tua gets a tough win against Kyler and the Cardinals in a matchup of former Heisman candidates. Plus Gabe and Geoff both share their favorites to come out of the AFC.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Quick time. All right. Three, two, one. It's Tuesday, November 10th. Brady got spanked on Sunday night. Tua out to Tyler in the desert. We may not have a truly elite team in this weird season. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Gabe Goodwin. This is Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. Gabe, how was your weekend? And by the way, stop grinning ear to ear, okay? We'll talk about your boy Tom Brady in a second, but just like stop grinning for a second to tell us how your weekend was not listen I'm grinning for the reason a lot of people in America are grinning right now but mainly because of what you just said your boy Tom Brady taking an all-time L late last night we're talking to it in the context of Tebow man I got all my buzzwords this week I am happy man uh it was a shocking shocking result

in the Saints game you know we bet on Tampa Bay we had our worst weekend of the year gambling it was a weird weekend gambling in general all the public plays so all the money that the public put on teams which is typically where you want to stay away from we were all on those sides and they all did not cover all of them Chiefs uh Steelersers, who are the other ones? I think the Cardinals are one of them. The Seahawks. All these teams end up not even covering and have to even win. So let's get into your boy, Tom Brady, who you, for the record, do not like. You are a Jets fan. You do not like Tom Brady.

And he had his worst game of his career. Yeah, literally the worst game of his career. Listen, the comeback kid has turned into the better bounce right boomer. He's an old man. Face it, Jeff. Your boy has to have everything go his way, both on and off the field, or there's going to be an excuse. And there's a lot of people in this industry who are paid to make excuses for him. But Sunday was awful.

The worst, you mentioned it, the worst loss of his entire career. The worst loss of any team in the NFL this year turns out Antonio Brown was not a miracle solution and Tompa all right is now just playing for a wild card if he's lucky instead of that division so you admitted you're off them as NFC favorites last night on Twitter I'm gonna say this Brady can't win anymore unless everything goes just right. No margin of error for Tom Brady. Well, let's start with that and we'll work our way back and we'll move around the subject.

So you're right about that because right now the Saints have a lead on Tampa Bay for that one seed, right? And that one seed is going to be very important this year because remember, the playoffs go from six teams to seven teams. So one team loses the bye. Only one team now has a bye that first week of the playoffs and we know that that a team has not made the super bowl since 2012 without that buy that buy is supremely important for rest to relax to have home field that home field this year is not the same as it has been the past without

fans but the weather is important right like new orleans for example do they want to go to green bay in january do they want to play home games in january i want to play home games in january right and maybe by then we'll have fans in the stands or more fans in the stands i should say we do not know so the the home foot advantage thing is huge and right now tom brady would have to win multiple playoff games i believe it ended up being what three or four now to get to the super bowl right because an extra extra game for that for that two seed now. So it'll be three games for that two seed. That's going to be really tough to do. And Gabe, I don't have a great answer for why Tampa Bay played like shit.

Other than I want to give the Saints credit. The Saints played really, really well. They moved up to number one now in DVOA. If you look at football outsiders and the research they have, that was like the best game a team has almost ever played in NFL history. Relative to how good Tampa Bay was entering that game so bravo to the Saints the issues in Tampa I think are kind of broad and they start with coaching okay is I don't really know what the identity of this offense is and maybe you can blame Tom Brady for

that but I feel like part of that is on just the system they're in right they didn't feel like there's a fluid offensive system each and every week. Dan Orlovsky, the ESPN, said, look, this is the worst game plan I've seen of any team, and I've watched the Jets this year. They just were not game planning very well last night. I don't know what they were doing. They had no rhythm. They had no rhyme or reason to do things.

And then the pressure got to Brady at some point. And the Bucs offensive line, I think, played pretty well for the most part. Just kind of when you're down 31-0, you're passing the ball every play, you're not going to be very good. On the flip side, defensively, they said, we're going to rush the Saints with four. Today's offensive line game is a top-five offensive line. When you rush four and sit in zone coverage and don't get home,

Drew Brees will pick apart that zone coverage. He has done that his entire career. You play into his hands when you allow him to just sit back there and throw the ball as quickly as possible. You'll get pressure in his face. And against them, you have to bring extra rushers. Their tackles are really, really good. Their guards and centers are really good.

You have to find ways to generate pressure and get Brees off his spot. How often did we see last night Brees just got back planted his foot and boom found someone and I think I just think the coaching the game plan was really bad on both sides of the ball there's also execution part right you have to execute if you're Tom Brady in that offense he has no rhythm with Mike Evans I don't know what's happening I have no idea they cannot figure out a way to get him the ball enough Antonio Brown he didn't force him yesterday. I thought he would force feed him. Did he force feed him?

I didn't notice that. Well, he was out there for three quarters of the game. He threw five balls his way. There was that one pick when AB just ran the wrong route. I mean, he cut off the route and it was an awful pick. And it was clear that Tom wasn't happy about that. But no, I don't know if they forced it. That, by the way, is the situation of him not playing

football for a long time just entering an office right because that's all they're doing is they're reading the corner if the corner if the corner sinks a little bit antonio brown's god the corner is playing a little high on him he comes back right and so tom brady and him were not on the same page on what the technique of the corner was so there's there's many things that's that's an issue with tampa and this goes to my point about the NFC game. I don't know who the favorite is, right? Because if Tampa plays their best game, they'll beat anybody. If the Saints play their best game, they can beat anyone.

The Packers, well, who knows? If their defense improves, they can be great too. The Seahawks defensively are a wreck. But, you know, for three or four games in January, maybe they get it together. I don't know who the favorite is. All right, I'm not going to ask you to pick a favorite any longer because I think you're right. Even if you say it today, it'll be different in two weeks anyway. It's kind of confusing. That's,

that seems to be the thread of every media member's point this morning is we don't really know who the favorite in the NFC is, but I do want to come back to this point about Antonio Brown, because I predicted that they were not going to get on the same page and that Brady is a sort of control freak right now in Tampa. And maybe the game plan isn't so great because he's kind of dictating what it is and who's on the field with him. And maybe they're forcing a guy out there who's now his roommate. What the hell? He lives with him. So his roommate is like running the wrong routes, but he's trying to force him the ball anyway. Like it, it just seems like Brady needs everything to be his way, but it doesn't want to take responsibility for the fact that

his way isn't really working. They sucked last week too, by the way, when they got the win, you know, like, I don't think they're as good as people wanted them to be. Although definitely not playing that well now, offensively, they've dropped a bunch too in their efficiency um i i'm not i feel like the offense is a couple things right now it's like half bruce arians and half tom brady right and actually i think it feels like it's more bruce arians and i thought the partnership of them together was going to be something where they both kind of found a way to make it work right brady has that short that's short developing you know short quick routes as you say long developing play action passes over the middle of the field, things that he's really good at.

It just doesn't feel that way, right? It feels like they're still trying to take the ball way too down the field. And, again, the Mike Evans thing is interesting because Mike Evans is an outstanding wide receiver, and they just cannot hook up very well. They cannot find a way to get a connection going. Bruce Aarons mentioned there were a lot of times in the game when Mike was running free and Tom took another option.

Part of that, there's a good exchange with Kurt Warner and Daniel Jeremiah about a certain play where that happened. And Kurt's like, look, Mike Evans is open, sure, but this is where the route's called over here. If he sees the coverage, boom, he has to throw it to someone else. So I wish I could tell you. I know you come to me, people, to listen about trying to make you smarter. I don't know what the answer is in Tampa.

I wish I had a great answer. I don't know what it is. They looked so discombobulated all over the field last night that I don't think they're as bad as that. But they've not played two bad games. And maybe it's a midseason lull. But I told you I had to start the season. I thought their offense would get better throughout the season and it's not and that's a problem well

i'm gonna just throw a theory at you that maybe uh football felt a little easier than it should have for tom brady 19 years in the afc never lost two games in the division to an opponent and never had to open a postseason on the road. Football isn't supposed to be that easy. I'm leaving out all the things that they were accused of and in some cases caught for that made the game a little bit easier. I'm forgetting about that. Maybe it's just not that easy to win in the NFL, especially when you're 43 on a new team.

Well, it's hard to win every year. Maybe that's the take. You're exactly right about that, right? Is that there is the dynasty level that they played for so many years is not normal that is not normally something that you have each and every year right even now and we'll talk about the chiefs in a second it's like it's hard to just play good each every week it's hard to dominate opponents every time especially when you know that your end goal is a super bowl right 17 week season're like, I just want to get to January.

I just want to get to January. I just want to get to January. And for so long in New England, it was easier for me because the defense was good most years. It wasn't good all the years. But you had a great coach, right? So you ended up getting 7 to 10 points a game just because Bill Belichick was a better coach than the person you're going against. And they don't really have that right now.

Did you ever hear Bill Belichick say, you know, we just kind of like played the wrong game plan this weekend? Never, ever. We ever hear that. I played them in 2015. I'll never remember. I played them a couple of times. The last time I was starting in 2015.

We were playing with the Giants. We're playing the Patriots. Gabe, normally you're pretty well certain. This is like week 12 or 13. You're pretty certain about what defenses you're going to see. If you're in this formation, you're going to get this. Maybe you get this. If you're in this formation, you're going to get this.

Maybe you get this. Base defense is a base defense. The Patriots have had that year, had three base defenses. We prepare for three different things on just every play. Okay, what happens if we line up in this and they show us this, this, and this? That's very unusual. That's not happening very often. And we had an idea of, okay,

they're probably going to do this and they're going to do this. And the third option was like 5% of the time. The third option was how they played us the entire game. So that's just what New England had always done. And I'm not sure he has that now with Bruce Aarons in Tampa. No, clearly he does not. I want to talk about the other quarterback in the game, and I'm not talking he has that now with Bruce Aarons in Tampa. No, clearly he does not. I want to talk about the other quarterback in the game, and I'm not talking about Drew Brees.

I want to talk about Jameis Winston, who was having the time of his life. Remember, he was the quarterback who got run out of town to make room for Brady. Now he's the backup for New Orleans. Had a better passer rating, by the way, yesterday than Tom Brady. Was dancing his face off and eating the W's. Wait, did he even attempt to pass yeah well whatever he did out there was better statistically than tom brady so good on him he was eating w's you know how he does that i won't try to do it that'll gross you out uh and

then he was dancing in the locker room by the way it seems like they brought lights with them on a road game so they could dance in the locker room if they won just look that up on twitter so i mean the the bears have done that they like dub club or something they dance in the locker room it was fabulous to watch including sean payton was involved so you're saying you don't know who the best team in the nfc is but can we officially now say with all that depth and all that energy that the saints are at least in the conversation and you were writing them off a few weeks ago but we have to take them seriously now right yes we have to take them seriously now, right? Yes, we have to take them seriously now.

Their defense has obviously improved a lot, right? Offensive, I know people said, well, Mike Thomas returned. I don't know if Mike Thomas was the reason why everyone was open yesterday. Maybe it was. But obviously the Drew Brees arm issue is not a concern. And that was Taysom Hill's best game of his career. And we mock him

all the time and I think rightfully so I tweet out in the first drive first drive the Saints game Drew Brees had three good plays in a row I'm sure they're bringing Taysom Hill now and what they did but there's no rhyme or reason for like that's so silly right you have a Hall of Fame quarterback getting in a rhythm and then boom boom boom and then you bring in Taysom Hill like to run a four yard gadget play it's so stupid uh but he played well last night. So things are rolling. I think the most important part about this is they own the tiebreaker against the Bucs. They don't own it against the Packers, obviously,

who beat them in New Orleans, but they own it against the Bucs. And that'll be important, especially if it comes down to a wild card or home game or the number one seed. All right. Well, we'll keep an eye on that. Another team that suddenly another another team that

suddenly is a team we have to talk about as a playoff team are the miami dolphins it's officially two a time all right he outdueled kyler and the cards yesterday to win his second straight game as a rookie okay he's got his dolphins looking like a playoff squad uh as your boy dan arlovsky you've already mentioned put it uh i was dead wrong about not playing Tua for the Dolphins. He then went on to compare him to Drew Brees. And I'm going to screw it up. Oh, Steve Young. Drew Brees and Steve Young.

Future Hall of Famer, Hall of Famer. People are into Tua time. So I'm just going to ask, like, is this for real or are our eyes fooling us? Two weeks, everyone's on board. Yeah. to ask like is this for real or are our eyes fooling us two weeks everyone's on board yeah so um you know i dan also said like the bills are going to beat the chiefs so i love dan to death but some of you know he's on he's on you know tv a bunch of hours i get it um so look i i always thought two would be good so this is no surprise to me this is the best rookie classic quarterbacks ever i mean like i three guys in the top six that are,

that are balling. So what the dolphins do really well right now, they do a couple of things. One is offensively. They designed a great game plan to protect to, uh, from his offensive line to start games, right?

They have a great job moving, moving the pocket of screens of quick passes of RPOs. And then as the game progressed, you could tell to, it got more comfortable in third down and more drop back passes. He was able to escape a lot of pressure. And the fourth quarter, he was down 31-24. And that drive to come down the field.

He evaded multiple rushers. He even spun one time into a pressure and got out of it as well. He looked very, very dynamic. It was very impressive to see him do that. Look, is he Steve Young? It's his second game in the NFL career. That feels a little much. Is he Drew Brees?

I don't know. He moves way more than Drew Brees ever did, so that seems like a terrible comparison, too. I think he's Tua. He's a combination of all these things. He can throw. He can run. He's got great awareness.

He's a gamer, obviously. He plays well from behind. He's a lot of these things. The Dolphins' success, though, is kind of interesting because it's a very weird game yesterday. Even going back two weeks, right? They scored twice on defense against the Rams. I mean, twice.

They got the ball to the one. And special teams. They got 21 points, special teams. Yesterday, the difference was a couple plays. They scored on defense again on a strip sack. And they had a weird play, a weird exchange at the end of the half where they got a big, long field goal to score three points.

And then Arizona missed a 49er field goal short. They missed it short in the NFL in 2020. No one misses this kick short. It was down the middle. It wasn't like it was off the defense. It was down the middle. Right down the middle. It was short.

So they did enough to win that game. And they seem like a playoff team, right? They won four in a row, five and three now. The Chargers come to Miami this weekend. And Chargers can never win a football game. So the Dolphins will probably win that game game there and they're doing some really good things so credit to uh credit chan gailey the oc the defense is playing a little step back last weekend against the carlos but still a really good defense and brian flores is a great it's

a great coach he seems like the best belichick coach uh there's been so far yeah i can't argue with that now we're talking about quarterbacks that it's too early to compare him to. I'm going to throw one out there and I'm not just doing this to trigger you. He reminds me a whole hell of a lot of Tim Tebow. If you give Tim Tebow time, which nobody ever did. Okay, he just wins.

It wasn't pretty last week, but he got the W. It seems like the offense, again, this is where you're going to have to make me smarter. It seems like it works best when he's bootlegging, when he's on the move, when he's on the move, when he's kind of running along the line of scrimmage with like a tight end

or some big bodied receiver, just kind of filling up space. He's not throwing the same kind of ball that Drew Brees was known for or doing the same things with his legs that Steve Young was known for, but he is doing some of that Tim Tebow magic. Am I crazy for thinking that? Come on. You can admit it. Tim tebow was pretty nice in his day doing tim tebow magic except he can throw the football and tebow cannot that's the difference throw that in close but i'm in close not even close you think he has less in

common with tim tebow than steve young i think he has more in common with Steve Young than Tim Tebow. Oh my God. Okay. All right. Let's hold on to that quote. You mentioned their schedule. By the way, I'm giving them four wins in their next four games. It gets a little tricky after that. They start picking up some playoff teams later on, but I counted it up. 10 wins is very achievable. They'd have to beat the Patriots later in the year, but that's looking more and more

like it's something that would happen. But I mean, I think we're going to be talking about the Dolphins making a weekend or two in the postseason. And everyone would agree that if Tua does make it to the playoffs, he's a gamer.

So whatever the hell that means, he's a gamer. So nobody's going to want to see them, right? I love to see them in the playoffs. The playoffs is a different beast. It's hard to just say someone's going to play well in the playoffs. We've seen them with the Ravens now two years in a row. We saw Josh Allen last year in the playoffs.

It's hard to play in the playoffs. Let's get them in the playoffs first before we just anoint them as playoff champions. Let's get there first. Okay, that's fair. I think that's totally fair. If they get there this year and they know exactly what they have organizationally, then free agency and the draft where they're picking like every other pick next year. So they could very quickly become the top team in that division

and maybe the top team in that conference if things break right. But it's been two weeks. You're right. And yes, the thing that's exciting about the dolphins, by the way, is not even this year. It's next year. It's all the draft picks they have.

So you have this team you're building. You've got your quarterback. Now you drafted pretty well. You've developed players as well. And guess what? You have, I think two first next year, two seconds.

You have a third, like you've all these picks from the Texans who are terrible. So you will have an opportunity next year to go snag yourself more players to help tua more offensive linemen more pass rushers more cornerbacks like all the elite positions you'll grab yourself more of those guys yeah now he was playing against kyler murray everyone was talking about how it was sort of a heisman race rematch and they want to see this for 10 more years um arguably he looks like the better player truthfully i mean kyler murray is all the way there kyler murray is playing really well he had like the weirdest game like he

had the first time in history someone rushed for like a certain number of yards and threw for a certain number of yards and lost the game like it was again it was um kyler murray is really good game i think that the nfl by the way is in an amazing spot right now for, for football. Uh, the quarterbacks, young quarterbacks, right. Are just incredible right now. Um, and Colin Murray is part of that group. Yeah. Can, can I point out something that bothers me? This is a take I hear a lot. Yes. Uh, guy on broadcast or on talking head show points out that quarterback was a really good baseball player back in the day as like just evidence of how good an athlete he was. Can I just say every effing guy playing quarterback in the NFL is the best baseball player they've ever met. They're all great at every sport, especially throwing baseballs.

Kyler Murray was an even better baseball player. I was also very. Why is this a thing that gets brought up all the time? I was also very good at baseball. Of course you were. Yes, I believe you because you're a professional fucking athlete. Like it shouldn't be surprising to us that the starting quarterback of an NFL team was also a very good baseball player. He's probably all state basketball and track and everything else.

Like, yes, yes yes we know tom brady not just not thought of as an athlete i mean make fun of his golf game when he choked against phil mickelson or whatever but great golfer drafted to play baseball could probably dunk all over all of us in a basketball game they're all good athletes oh yeah i'm with you i don't i don't you know what what about the guy that like, you know, and my favorite too, especially when you watch college football, is like the big freshman offensive lineman who also can dunk a bunch and they show a bunch of, you know, rookie offensive linemen or like first year of true freshman offensive lineman in college football.

They just, they have to show them dunking the football. Yeah. I mean, dunking the basketball, I should say. We get it. He's 6'5". He's got a 35-inch vertical. Like, of course. Yes, I should say. We get it. He's 6'5". He's got a 35-inch vertical. Like, of course. Yes, he can dunk.

Okay. Well, look, we talked about the Dolphins. We don't actually think are in that top tier, but they're exciting and they might be a playoff team. Let's talk about the top, top tier. And I'm going to say the Steelers are the only, quote-unquote, elite team left in the league. All right.

Now, I know that it was kind of a close game beating up on the Cowboys yesterday, but the Cowboys kind of looked like they had some life for the first time in a few weeks. So a big win there. Ben and the receivers look pretty good. The defense, by all accounts, looks great. I'm going to say they're elite. Then everyone else is just pretty good,

including your Chiefs, all right? So here's the take. Beating the Steelers will come down to whoever's healthiest and deepest, and that's it. The whole second team, their tier of teams in the AFC, it just comes down to are you healthy, are you deep? And I think the team that has the best chance of being that team are the Buffalo Bills.

Can you say that again, please? I thought you said Kansas City Chiefs. I was confused. No, healthiest and deepest team by the end of the year who can knock off the Steelers, the Bills. The Bills are more talented than the Chiefs. Is that what we're going with here? Because you said like –

I'm going with healthiest and deepest. You mentioned deepest. I was figuring like, I don't know, the seven wide receivers the Chiefs have and multiple tight ends and the pass rushers and the cornerbacks and, like, all that, that just the bills are deeper than them. I'm going to ignore that you triggered me there for a second. Let's talk about the Chiefs really quick. The Chiefs are the only elite team in the NFL right now, not the Steelers.

Right now the Chiefs, number one in offense in the NFL, right? Number one in expected points added. It's a good metric to measure efficiency, right? If you need three yards, you get four. It's a plus play. If it's third and ten and you only get eight yards, it's not it's a good metric to measure efficiency right if you need three yards you get four it's a plus play but start in 10 and you only get eight yards it's not a good play right but obviously you know eight is more than four but four got the job done eight did not that's kind of how the efficiency process works teams are number one in efficiency on offense number 12 on defense but where they're really good is their sixth and past defense i don't care about rushing i don't care about stopping the run.

They're always ahead. Who cares about stopping the run? They don't have to worry about stopping the run. All right? The thing about the Chiefs is I think that people don't understand. I mentioned earlier with Tom Brady in New England. The Chiefs just have to get to January. Just have to get to January.

And they've proven they can beat anyone in the NFL. They already beat the Bills this year. They smashed the Ravens this year. They know they can beat anyone in the NFL. They already beat the Bills this year. They smashed the Ravens this year. They know they can beat anyone in the NFL. They just have to get to January. And they're bored sometimes. They just kind of look like they're bored. And this game against Carolina, Carolina had to pull all the hopes.

Fake punt, trick plays, Teddy Bridgewater, 4th and 14, diving over three guys for a first down. All of that, and the Pan parents had to kick a 67 yard field goal to win the game like it wasn't that close of a game the chiefs are up nine with two minutes left right so like i think we just we overlooked the chiefs because they are such a good team right now the bills are close the bills look the bills are kind of up they've been up and down right haven't been that great until they played seattle and everyone who plays seattle especially their defense looks looks really good.

Pittsburgh's problem right now, and I can't believe it's weird to say this, because it's true. I'm not making things up right now. Offensively, Gabe, they're just not explosive enough. They have to find ways to get more of a downfield passing game, downfield passing attack, be able to strike quickly if needed. Because right now, they're too methodical on offense. If you run up against the Chiefs and they score 28 points against you,

which in theory is probably about right, 24 to 28 points, are the Steelers going to put up that many points against Kansas City in like eight drives? Probably not. So I just think they have to get more explosive on offense. So I think, again, it's Kansas City one, and then there's another tier of teams that I don't know if it even even includes buffalo but it's not probably not but one is chiefs and again they're not that elite compared to years past the best team in the nfl but they still are the one elite team okay well fine i mean you've been my chiefs uh sherpa for over a year now. Okay, look, here's, I want to make this point too,

real quick, is that this season, when they decided to play, their best game, the game they were up for the most, which was what game? The Baltimore game, right? They're like, that was the game,

like, we have to beat them. They kicked the shit out of Baltimore. They kicked the shit out of them. Baltimore had 475 yards against the Steelers. They had four turnovers. That's why they lost the game. Baltimore just beat a Colts team that everyone thinks is good i don't buy the colts but they beat them and they were ugly for most of the game but they won the game baltimore's pretty good too the chiefs smashed them everyone's looking at the one loss against against vegas

and they're like oh the chief you lose a game like it happened the steelers almost lost the cowboys cowboys are terrible so like i just think think that we got to look at less wins and losses and look when they actually were playing as hard as they could, right? Like actually gave a shit for the entire game. And they kicked the shit out of Baltimore. Well, I mean, every week we come back to this topic in some way or another. And every week what I come away thinking, even if it wasn't how I entered the week,

is, all right, it's the Chiefs and the Steelers. I mean, it's just those two in either order i mean you just sort of made me think otherwise about how i led with this but i guess one more case for for buffalo is that i don't think you could make an offense that passes the ball better than what we saw yesterday right like they only pass for whatever i guess that's just what seattle was given them but i i read they tell me if this stat means something to you this kind of blew me away They only pass. I guess that's just what Seattle was giving them. Tell me if this stat means something to you. This kind of blew me away.

20 or more first downs in all nine games this year. Last two teams to do that, 18 Rams, 17 Patriots, both made the Super Bowl. It just seems like they're constantly keeping drives going, constantly creating first downs, constantly in the red red zone they're just always about to score but but but the last four weeks they haven't been though like that's that's that's my point is they haven't been is yes this week against against seattle was great and they did a great job but for the most part it's your jets like i'm not i don't really if you guys have listened long enough to know this, I don't change my opinion on a team typically in one week of play. All right. Well, I mean, I'm not giving up on him.

Your boy, Dan Masek, is going to argue they're America's team this year. I'm with him. Well, Dan Masek is mistaken. All right. Well, let's use him as our chance to move the line here. We're going to stay sort of on the same topic, but we're going to drill in more specifically to the quarterback. Boom.

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game. I want to say, chances your boy Patrick Mahomes ends up MVP after all. Over-under 50% chance for Patrick. I would say over right now. I think he's the leader just slightly over Aaron Rodgers right now. 25 touchdowns, one interception. On pace for 4,800 yards at the moment. I mentioned the best offense.

Very slightly over the Packers right now. Best offense in the NFL. It might just come down to like style points, right? Rodgers and Mahomes. Mahomes' schedule is pretty easy down the stretch. Rodgers is a little bit tougher. So, you know, the weather too might affect a couple games in Green Bay late in the season.

But it feels like it's those two plus Wilson for that MVP. I bet on Mahomes right now. And Josh Allen. How about this one, Jeff? Put you back on your heels for that MVP. I bet on Mahomes right now. And Josh Allen. How about this one, Jeff? Put you back on your heels for a second. The odds that you still think Dalvin Cook isn't quite worth the money. 99% chance.

He's not worth the money. Oh, boy. I mean, it's just like, yeah, they're going to win a lot of Super Bowls with Dalvin Cook leading the way. Is it possible that your definition of a running back needs to be updated so that you can no i said we talked about this last week alvin camara really valuable yeah much more valuable okay but what dalvin what dalvin

cook's doing he's their whole offense and they're they're winning now i mean, if he's not worth the money, who's worth the money? I get it. Maybe the running back position is slightly overvalued. I'm a Camara. Okay. Nothing he's doing is impressing him. They're not a good football team. They're not a good football team.

Like, I'm not going to get excited for a 500 football team. Okay. Well, they're not even 500. But he leads the league in rushing yards and touchdown team. Okay. Well, they're not even 500, but he leads the league in rushing yards and touchdowns. Congratulations. On a sub-500 team. Great job.

Great job. I hope you don't bump into Dalvin Cook at like Super Bowl week. I mean, he'll be out there promoting something. They don't even know who I am. I'm just another fat former football player walking through Radio Row. All right. Well, I mean, if that's the way you want to look at it i i hope you get a chance to interact and and i i'd like for him to tell you to your face you're wrong that he's worth every dime

because if you got him in your fantasy draft he and kamara are the two guys in the first round who are still playing who are still putting up serious numbers. It's been great to have Kamara. Sounds good. I mean, I'd love to have a competition with him. I'd love to meet him, shake his hand, tell him how good he is as a player and that I wouldn't pay him. Yeah, he lucked out getting paid.

All right, how about this? I want to know over under Lions players on the field at all times next week, over under 10 and a half players. Don't seem to be getting that right. Did I miss this yesterday? Yeah, they had 10 guys on the field for that 70-yard touchdown run. Such a Matt Patricia thing. And apparently they did it twice last week. So the genius with the pencil in his ear,

you know, the Belichick disciple, air quotes very apparent, can't even put 11 dudes on the field. That's bad. Come on. Come quotes, very apparent. Can't even put 11 dudes on the field. That's bad. Come on. Come on, Matt Patricia. I'm going to say they're dude. I'll say they're dude again next week, just for fun. Three straight weeks.

Yeah. Okay. Let's go over. Okay. Here's one name that's going to stick out for you. I think you're going to have something to say about this. Justin Herbert is paying the price for LeBron and Kershaw's success in LA. Over under 99% chance. Poor Justin Herbert is paying the price for LeBron and Kershaw's success in LA. Over under 99% chance.

Poor Justin Herbert. Remember, the Dodgers only won his asterisk this year. It's not a full championship. Only a third of a season. Look, I feel bad for Herbert because Herbert's playing his ass off. His coaching staff is so uber conservative. It was gross at the end of that game, Gabe. It was so gross.

So you have a player, Justin Herbert, who's been fantastic under pressure, under duress. He led your team down the field to get into range to score. You're at the six-yard line or four-yard line, six seconds left. And you have a variety of plays to throw the ball to.

You throw two GD goal line fades. The first one Mike Williams should have caught. He dropped it, right? They're 50-50 balls. You're jumping up in the air, trying to catch a ball while a defender is hanging all over you.

You need to fall down, complete catch so then they now there's one second left on the clock i believe oakley even calls time out here he's trying to figure out a play so what do they do they throw a fade to the third string tight end who drops the ball by the way great celebration he pretended like he caught it it was very clear from the i think from even not the first replay he dropped the ball and. And they lose the game again. Like, they find the most excruciating ways to lose games. It's 100% on coaching. 100% on coaching. They're so conservative in the two-minute drill.

I want to, I want to. Then in the first half, Gabe, there's two minutes after the first half. They have three timeouts, I think, or two timeouts. And they're moving the ball down the field. They run a draw. They waste 35 seconds running a draw in the first half and end up settling only for a field goal. Like, what the hell, guys?

Actually, no, sorry. They scored a touchdown on that play because Justin Herbert made a great throw against pressure and they scored a touchdown. It's just like, I just, oh, man. And Anthony Lynn, he's a great guy. I liked hard knocks. He just looks lost out there, doesn't he, on the sidelines?

He doesn't look like he knows what he's doing. I can't comment on that because I don't know what i'm talking about uh that seems to be what the smart people are saying so i guess that's probably right i think he's getting a little bit of a bun wrap they feel like a team that with a few breaks is easily five and four or something right now they had the same should happen last year like that's the thing is it's not like just one season it just happens all the time to them well i'm going to read you a stat and i think this came from roger sherman at the ringer um since entering the nfl in 1970 the chargers are second in the league in one possession losses behind just the lions a team that's lost significantly more games all right so they basically are really, really good at losing heartbreakers.

We've seen that for sure this season. And another stat to talk about, like just bad luck at times, them and the Raiders, they both been outscored on the season by 11 points. All right. But the Raiders are winning team.

They look like a playoff team right now. The Chargers are two and six. You know, they're going to be drafting the top 10 picks. So it is a little bit of just shitty luck i mean one of those two guys catches the ball we're talking about herbert de hero right and they didn't though that's the problem they keep they keep not making plays to end games i guess i just i don't know if i'm ready to like you know go fire lynn over that but all right so you're saying it Alright. I would love them to hire Arthur Smith, the Titans' offensive coordinator.

Just let Herbert loose. Well, I mean, I don't know how much looser you could let him go. When he's got time, he looks like the best quarterback in the league, to my eye. I really don't see how you

could throw the ball any nicer than when he's got a few seconds in the pocket. Yes, his deep ball is fantastic. His touch is a little bit a little bit suspect still something's got to work on those intermediate passes okay um well let's talk about a guy who's supposed to be the next him or even better but i'm going to just repeat a question from last week now

that we saw the game actually play out trevor lawrence college football snaps left over under.5. Are we sure he's coming back? I think he's coming back still. Dude, he seems to love college football, man. They still have a chance to win a title. They can beat Notre Dame again, ACC championship game, and go to the playoff. It doesn't seem like it to me. By the way, that celebration was crazy i know twitter was just

ready to pounce all over all those kids for celebrating on the field and it just seems like everyone's playing gotcha now did you have any reaction to seeing all those kids crowding around each other without masks on i just i i i have a level of fucks to be given excuse my language and i don't have any to be to give to that situation i just i can't i don't care yeah i was i was worried about other things that point as well um they listen they deserve the criticism they will surely face on twitter i don't know if that's real life problems but uh hopefully everyone's well did you see did you see that the notre dame president i believe said that the players at rush the field um if they do not get COVID tested, their tuition is being like withheld for next semester.

Oh, wow. No, I had not seen that. That's, that's a pretty big deal. Yeah. He said,

they're going to, they said that like mandatory COVID test. If they leave, like without getting, if they leave for, for Thanksgiving break without getting COVID test, they're, they're gonna,

they're going to have their, their thing, their tuition withheld or they're blocked. It's, it's here i'm gonna here we got here it says here we got a second here it's a podcast um it says here that as you prepare to travel home at the end of semester the university will place a registration hold on the record of any student who fails to appear for testing when asked to do so furthermore, you may not leave South Bend area until you receive the result of your exit test. Again, should we discover that you have left the area,

we will place a registration hold on your record. There will be zero tolerance for any gatherings that do not comport with our health and safety guidelines on or off campus. Those found responsible for hosting such gatherings will face severe sanctions. Yeah, well, that's a nice thing to try to get strict after the fact i guess you could ask the question why were there so many people without masks in the

stadium in the first place but you know we've already had that debate for too many weeks to the original point justin fields looks like the heisman winner right now right i mean more touchdown passes than incompletions on the season he's playing for a great team you know I'm guessing I'm guessing that Lawrence sort of assesses the situation considers his health considers his future in the NFL and says yeah I don't think so I don't think I'm doing this that's my guess I I'm happy to be wrong I'd like to see him out there let's. Let's end on this one. And I don't want to smile or make a joke out of this, but I'm afraid that I might have to at times.

The bonus over under. How many days before Jeff has to buy new chickens over under three and a half? Not good, folks. So we, what was it? Saturday morning. Saturday morning, I think it was saturday saturday morning my wife says i'm in bed with my girl and she's like get your clothes on come outside i was like oh god this is not gonna be good and um an animal had gotten into the the chicken coop and uh the chickens were gone not not physically gone they were in the coop they just were dead um and yeah so a raccoon

walked i think it's a raccoon it was imagined so walked along the fence jumped down and so on the back of the hen house there's a latch to open the back up to grab eggs like from the closed in captured part and the raccoon knocked the thing open like it doesn't it has it's like you have to like knock it and turn it and knocked it open and got in there and that was it so um yeah man that's uh chickens are gone i didn't i don't know i didn't expect this before someone in chickens i guess i've never seen raccoon in my neighborhood i know they're there because they go through the trash all the time but um now i know to put a lock on that area of the hen house and uh it tried to get in through the chicken wire couldn't do it so the chicken wire is reinforced it just got in through that little

area i don't know how it knocked it open man but it uh wily little bastard so yeah we'll get new chickens this weekend we're gonna talk to the ladies so we get some more we can't give up now we already we put all this resource into it okay so the the answer to my question is under three and a half days until you get new chickens you're you're committed to the chickens over we're getting them saturday all right well whatever you're getting chickens this wasn't a deterrent now can i unpack a few parts of what you just brought up you think your theory of the case here that i'm assuming you don't have like a nest cam or something on the chickens. So your theory is a raccoon. Oh, yes.

Broke into a latched, gated. No, no. So on the back of the hen house, there's like a little door that literally like, so if there's like, you know, like a little covered part of the hen house, typically the bird would go in there and lay their egg in this little area. Our birds never did that. And then you would open up the back and you grab the eggs out, okay? So that has like a little latch that when you turn the latch sideways,

it holds the door from opening. But if you turn it forward, it kind of unlatches and comes out. So the raccoon just hit the thing enough to just move it out of the way and it just popped open. All right. And so it locks its way in.

Then it goes in there and you think it murders the chickens, but it doesn't eat them? No, they don't eat the chickens. They just, they just, they just, he just went to town. I mean, one, only one had blood on them. I don't think he just. So did he eat eggs? Why did it go in there and kill the chickens? Because they're just jackass animals.

They do this all the time. All my neighbors are like, yeah, the raccoons are everywhere. There's no surprise. We have foxes in our neighborhood. We have all this shit in our neighborhood, man. I guess I'm just wondering how you're so sure this was a raccoon.

Well, it's not a fox because the fox would have had to... The footprints are on top of the fence. You could see those footprints on top of the fence. The footprints on top of the house and then it see those footprints up the fence the footprints on top of the the hen house and then it jumped down a fox ain't doing that a fox just come in through the the gate i guess to the slats and a fox is not oh it's not opening the back of the hen house up okay uh man i'm sorry because i know that you know these were your new chickens and you uh you loved them. Did you eat the chickens? No.

Well, that can't be a bad question. You owned chickens. They're dead. You didn't eat them? No. First of all, they're baby chickens. They're young. And I'm not deep.

They were dead for like hours by that time. Ah, I see. Okay. We got them in the morning. They were stiff. Oh, God. All right. Okay. But you're're gonna go back and get a more fortified chicken coop no no we're no we're just gonna get the tube we have now and just fix the little part where the raccoon tried to get in the side just put a lock on the back okay i i i didn't put a camera back there i would like to

know what's going on we're gonna put a camera back there too probably probably. I might buy some better chicken wire and reinforce some of it too. But otherwise, I mean, they can't get in if we close everything up. Sorry. How is there no blood? Did it scare them to death? No, there was some blood on some of them, like around the neck and stuff. Oh. Do we think, like...

The scene just went and just started mauling them i don't know i don't know i mean there was there was bird feathers everywhere like this was shit everywhere all right yeah so this isn't a place that i didn't want to take it i don't i don't mean to laugh at the imagery of an animal being shredded by another animal but it sounds kind of like a wild thing to find in your backyard they're just we're laying in that they were just dead in the coop man and there was bird there was feathers everywhere and just like looked like something they got attacked yeah well i'm sorry i'm uh i'm sorry that happened and then we had we had four we had four of their eggs in the fridge and we made the eggs scrambled eggs um and my wife wanted to do it to honor the cherries and she couldn't even eat them so we threw them out so it's a waste it's so stupid you should have eaten them like rocky just pour

them in a glass and down but we've like my wife's like are we gonna get more chickens like oh yeah we've invested all this money like we have all this food and this like we bought the hen house like we might as well get more the chickens are the least out of all the costs for this whole project the chickens aren't expensive like they're like the least amount of cost yeah i think i yeah i'd say you got to get a few more and then maybe you got to get some other kind of more threatening animal to protect them i don't know what that would be there's got to be something that scares away a raccoon that also doesn't eat a chicken. We could also set some traps up outside. Traps, you know.

Okay. Well, keep us posted. I still do think it's worth having your wife on this show to make people smarter on raising chickens. This is a lesson. Obviously, she's got more to say now.

But, you know, we got NFC and Ac title teams to talk about before that time so maybe you know maybe sometime early december we can do a chicken episode i hope we get some some better chickens that that uh figure it out come on man okay you gotta fight thanks for making me smarter they had no chance r.i.p chickens i'm sorry, guys, I think we'll end weird, awkward chicken notes. I don't know what else I'm supposed to say.

Cause everything I'm thinking is totally inappropriate. I think that's fine. And inappropriately talk about a couple of chickens that, that I had, uh, that I did have. All right, guys have a great couple of days.

We're gonna have a bounce back week on Thursday with our gambling podcast. Uh, all right, guys, have a good one. Josh Schwartz, get good. Josh Schwartz is smarter than you. Have a great couple of days we're gonna have a bounce back week on thursday with our gambling podcast uh all right guys have a good one josh short's get good josh is smarter than you have a great couple of days