Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Broncos Get Waddle and Part 2 of NFL Win Totals After Free Agency

Episode Date: March 23, 2026

Geoff Schwartz and Matt Ford check back in on every NFL team's 2026 win total after free agency, and more on this episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code GEOFF to get $200 in free bonus bets when you bet just $5. #NFL #Podcast #draftkings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It is Friday, March 19th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. It's actually Thursday, March 19th, Matt. We did on a different day. Jeff Schwartz. Hell yeah. Matt Ford, Jeff was smarter than you. Good start to the show.

Can't even get the day right. But it's Thursday is one hour before March Madness begins. And we'll maybe throw some wagers your way, Matt, as we go through here. We're here to talk to the NFL. And we're going to continue our exercise that we started last week. We go over all the win totals for the NFL team's basically after Fraygency. has ended, right? The guys are signing now, Matt, or second and third wave,

guys you're texting me about backup offensive alignment, the commanders are signing. But that's where we are right now. I was doing that before. In the whole cycle of NFL for agency and a big couple weeks for some college basketball too. So we

will talk all of it. How are you, my friend? I'm good. I mean, when we get off the air here, if anyone's watching us live, it's about an hour before the first tip. You got any place to day. I literally, I was, I don't know if you noticed, I was looking down as you were doing the intro. It's because I was literally

depositing on my Draft King's Predictions app. Yeah. Okay. So if we're doing this today, if we're doing this today, and I'll give you, I guess, at the end of the show, my wagers for tomorrow. So today, I like Louisville minus four. So that numbers come way down. Their best player who you can be hot or cold Brown is not playing. But they've been

okay without them this. It's more, Matt, that the numbers move so much. and everyone's on South Florida today. Like they're the number one underdog ticket right now. I got a better number on Louisville. Sign me up for that. I like the under in the first game today, 146 and a half.

The game starts right at 12, 15. And, you know, it's interesting because they really don't play a lot of games during the day in March Madness. A lot of them happen. Like, there's only a game, it's game like 1215, 1245, 145 that happened later on this. You have time, if you're listening to this to get these. I also like Wisconsin minus 10.5.

Again, this is like everyone's on high point. Everyone's upset pickus high point. Matt, I've also made some wagers that I don't know if you can get in. You might still be able to get him in, but I took, I laid minus 200 on under one and a half teams that are seated 13 through 16 to have a win in the first round. Smart. I just don't think there's going to be a lot of upsets in this tournament. I mean, the numbers right now are huge, right? And there's a lot of reasons for that.

NIL has made a lot of difference. If you're good at a mid-major for one year, the next year, like if you're a good tournament year, the next year you move up to a power conference team, right? But also, too, there are a lot of upsets in the mid-major. So the better teams of these conferences aren't playing in these games. You have the second or third or fourth, the sixth-place team in the conference playing these games.

So, you know, that's – I like Idaho under 24 and a half points for the first half today against Houston. in the latest game of the day. So that's what I like now. I'll have some bets at the end of the show. I will give you Matt, before we get to football, one very funny, funny wager. Funny out of whatever you want to use.

So you know, I dabble on the women's college basketball side. Yukon, number one seed in the country, is playing UTSA, Conference USA, University of Texas, San Antonio. And... Should be an even matchup. And they're favored by 54 and a half, okay? Yeah. UTSA is sixth in the conference USA.

So not even like the best team of conference USA. They won their tournament, they got in. They fair by 54.5, Matt. I want you to guess the UTSA team total for this game. I think it's Friday at noon, Yukon, UTSA, the team total. How many points will UTSA score in this game according to draft kings?

31 and a half. 34 and a half, 34 and a half. I might bet the over, right? Got to bet the over. That was my cap right there. You have to, right? to bet be over right like i beg i bet so i bet 51 a half and it got to 56 and a half and settled 54 and a half i mean you caught to win this game a hundred and five to 40 like four

i can't get i can't get 35 points in this game 35 points that's less than a point a minute to the texts at like 940 pacific tomorrow it's like well uts i can't make a lay up She was wide open. I did make three women's college basketball wagers if anyone wants to tell me. I did the Yukon Wage at Michigan minus 41 and a half, and I took Murray State plus 30 and a half against Maryland. You're Maryland Terps. Young Maryland team, Murray State scores like 100 points a game.

That's going to be going to be closer than 30 and a half points. So a lot of fun there. It sounds like a bad bet to me. Probably, Maryland, the five seed. Our men's teams are not in the tournament, buddy. who they are they are both we we were joke last week this was when the game happened before after we were texting last week you informed me on the air that they were playing each other and then i found out maryland did in fact win and texts of you i think my direct quote was

eat shit or he was down 33 12 at the at the half against maryland in a 1718 big 10 tournament game all right matt let's get to uh football at hand there is not much news but there is news with the team that we're going to start with here for our over-unders. Yeah, well, I guess are we starting with Minnesota? Is that where we left off? Yes, so we left off with Miami, who I said the Malik Willis thing, did he say, can I do one thing too, Matt, before we get going here? Yeah, I want to talk about Miami again with the Waddle thing.

Okay. So we can start with Miami then. I am getting just very frustrated with NFL media that's on TV. because they never say anything bad about anyone. Like when you listen to them talk, it's always that they're like the best. And they have ability. Well, guess what's the NFL?

We all have ability. It's why we're in the NFL. Like, give me, like, it's okay to say, you know what? I don't really like that signing. I don't think that player is any good. Now, I get you don't want to do it.

You're on TV. You're going to hear from that age. You hear from that player. But man, like, whenever I tweet something about a player, like, I don't think the player's going to be very good. I get, well, so-and-so on TV said they like them. I just, it's just frustrating, dude. Like, I don't, they never say anything bad at anybody.

Why would, why would their opinion matter more than mine? Because they're on TV. I mean, I guess, sure, they have a better job than I do. But I at least can say a player, I don't think it's going to be, and I've been wrong before. I've been wrong plenty of times. But to just, as we enter draft, draft season, and Fradency season and preview season,

everyone on TV just talk about everyone is good. Everyone's good, everyone's good, everyone's good, everyone's good. I can't take it, man. Yep. It's probably not going to change anytime soon. because of the agent industrial complex. But, yeah, I agree. But I think sometimes the way to read what people really think is how effusive they are.

Like, it's been interesting to the reaction. Let's switch to this Jalen Waddle thing that happens. We left off at Miami. We were both not in love with them, even at their win total at four and a half. That's what it is now. I think that's what it was then. Yeah, so they moved Jalen Wattle to Denver. they got a first round pickback so good for them

but I'm curious what you thought of this move both for Denver and for Miami because I think it was a little bit of a surprise well Denver Denver was trying to was trying to get a wide receiver I think for a little bit of time right and they ended up with Waddle here I think they gave them a first round pick for Waddle I love what the dolphins are doing

except the Malik Willis signing makes no sense like out of everything they're doing then you sign Malik Willis. I get it. It's not an expensive contract. That's not the point, guys. Okay. When I say I don't like what they're doing

by signing Malik Willis. I'll tell you why I don't like it, okay? So first of all, they got rid of everyone he could ever throw the ball to. And A Chan's probably going to get traded too. I think if they get a good deal for him, he's gone too. So there's no one to throw to and an offensive line that's, you know, average at best, right?

It's just not good situation for him. So you're trying to sort of be bad. And I get it. New general manager, new head coach. clear out everyone that was signed on previous cards. It happens every single team all the time, Matt, right? All the time. So what they're doing is nothing different than anyone else has ever done,

but they're just getting rid of all the guys. They didn't sign because they know they have to be bad. We got 12 draft picks or 13 draft picks. Let's draft picks. I love that part of it, right? But I don't know the Malikwell sign because guess what, Matt? What if you go 7 and 10 this season, all right, if you're in Miami? And you win five of the 750-50 games.

that you play. And maybe Malik Willis plays well, maybe he doesn't. But now you're 7 and 10. And now you're picking, what would 7 and 10 get you? 14? Yeah. 14-ish. 10 to 14.

Right? 14. So now you don't get to determine the quarterback that you want, right? Like you just, you don't get to do that. You know, seven of, yes. So 7 and 10 would put you, actually funny where the Miami was at this year. It put you where the Cowboys, you know, it'd be 10 to 13, right? right? And or let's say you go eight and nine for some reason. So, A, you don't get to, you know, choose a quarterback that you get number one overall. But maybe Malik Willis does enough to convince you he's a quarterback of the future, which is absolutely not going to be Matt. And you end up signing him to a long-term contract. Or don't have to quarterback. And like to me, you want to take the add to the equation. If they think Malik Willis can be the long-term answer, again, outlier of all outliers. This would be.

an unprecedented career path for a quarterback to make. I can't think of one comp. I'm sure there will have someone that thinks of a better. Matt, there's not one comp I can think of that would be Malik Willis's success in the NFL. Yeah, we, I agree. When you phrase it that way, it's sort of hard to, it's hard to argue. Yeah, I mean, look, it's possible, but I think they're sort of doing two things at once. They're saying, hey, this is our quarterback for the future, but let's,

also like tear down the entire team. So it doesn't matter if he wins or not right away. Like you know, it doesn't really make sense what, what they're signaling sort of overall. I agree if you're going to do a tear down by all means. But I don't know if Willis is sort of the focal point of an effective teardown. If he is,

then you probably shouldn't have been on it in the first place. The thing on the Denver side, Denver just, Denver, I feel, could be falling into the trap that my team, the Washington commanders did last year. where they just say, like, yeah, Boen-Nix was healthy. We're probably in the Super Bowl, right? So what else could, you know, so we're there, that we don't have to do anything.

And I guess, you know, good for them to get waddled and, you know, I guess, like, maybe he's that difference maker. We'll see. He sort of hasn't been won in a few years. But I just feel like Denver thinks that they don't need to do anything. They can just stand pat and it's all going to fall their way again. We talked last week about how many 50-50 games they won, you know, the, they swept the chiefs. like that's not going to happen again, you would think. So, you know, good for them for getting the other wide receiver that they definitely did need.

I'm just not sure that they're going to be as good as they were this past year. I just, I'm not sure that they have, you know, they're as close as they think they are. So I'm sure you might remember the number, but at top of your head, do you know how many one score wins that Broncos had last season? Weren't they like 10 and 2 or something? They had 11. Wow. 11.

I mean, that's just, that's crazy. Like, that's not going to happen two years and around. So they were 11 and 2 in the regular season and won score games. Yeah, they were, other, you know, Knicks obviously in the championship game, that was devastating, but they were pretty healthy. Like, you know, they bring back Dobbins. It's like, okay, like, is that going to see it going to last full season?

Like, I don't know, man. We'll see, but, you know, I guess the move makes sense when you, like, talk about why they did it, but, you know, to shove all in on Jalen Waddle, we'll see. Um, okay, let's move on to our win totals here. Uh, we've got a few left, about a little less than half. Let's start with the Vikings who in the meantime, since we've recorded our last show, have signed Kyle Murray.

Um, their win total is eight and a half, uh, split pretty evenly here on the money on each side. I think I would lean over, but I feel like it's too early to make a judgment call on this one. So, um, I think I find most interesting about the Colin Murray decision. is two things. So one is that we talked earlier about people being so positive about everything in the NFL this time of year. When I hear people say, well, this is a good sign for Minnesota.

It's going to go well for Kylo Murray. It's almost nothing about Kylo. It's all about Kevin O'Connell and about the offensive line, the run game, Justin. I don't ever hear anything like, oh, well, Kyle Murray fits the offense because he does this, this, and this. It's interesting, right?

Like normally you would hear sort of, well, this skill set. His skill set doesn't really fit this offense. But the thing about it, Matt, is that this offense, a Shanahan-McVeigh offense, fits everybody, right? It's a great offense for any quarterback. And so I think Murray does play well. And here's the thing that's really interesting about this. So, you know, people will tell you that this is an open competition, right?

Between J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray. Okay. Matt, if you're at practice, first day of OTAs, you're on the field or third week, whatever it is. And these two guys are playing. There's eight reps with the ones. McCarthy gets four, Kyler gets four. Who do you think is better in the first practice? Yeah, probably Kyler.

Who's better in the fourth practice? Yeah. And the 17th practice. Correct. And the 23rd practice. Like, Murray's a better quarterback. So either you have to just give him the job or give it to McCarthy and give McCarthy the reps to try to get him better than,

better than Tyler Murray. And this, this sort of backwards way of doing it, I don't like it. I get, look, I don't like splitting reps with the ones because as a player who's obviously been in those huddles,

but like you need all the reps with the one quarterback. You need to hear the cadence. You need to hear the adjustments. You need to work with that quarterback. And switching those reps doesn't really help anybody out. You don't get used to the wide receivers and the running backs and the defense, all those things. Like, what if you have a blitz of the day that you're working against

and you only run it on the third play of that period, right? And the third play of that period is Kyler Murray. McCarthy doesn't get that rep with the ones. It's a lot of more work to, like, make sure everyone gets equal amount of stuff. But Murray's better than McCarthy. And this is another point I've made a lot with the Colts specifically is that you drafted a quarterback who needs reps to get better and you're not giving him the reps to get better.

Now, part of that is, is he might not he might suck matt and that's certainly fair to say but the fact is when you draft a guy who needs the reps if you don't give him the reps he's not going to get better it's impossible to get better if he doesn't get the reps to get better so it's other McCarthy it's going to be you know the the job of murray's in my opinion i think he's the better quarterback and yeah i think minnesota's probably properly scaled right now with their win total that's a really interesting point all the way around about McCarthy. I feel like I learned something here.

I do think Kylo was going to be good for them. And I just, I got to admit, I forgot what the Vikings record was last year. Do you remember what the Vikings record was? They had nine wins last year, right? They had nine wins. So I don't think they got worse. And they have a pretty light, you know, they don't have a bad schedule. They play the NFC South and the AFC East.

So yeah, I think I would lean to the over here, but they still have some work to do. I feel like a couple other pieces have either aged out or moved on. They made some changes on the defense. But they kept Brian Flores and they kept Kevin O'Connell. So that's a good start. All right. Moving on to one of your former teams. Or no, wait, sorry, I skipped two teams.

The New England Patriots, the Super Bowl runner-ups, their win total is only nine and a half. And I find that to be pretty interesting, pretty eye-popping. which side are you won for the Patriots? Oh, under or nothing. Yeah, 100%. The only way you have to play this. Have they gotten a ton better this off season?

Now, there's rumors right now that, you know, AJ Brown, I think, ends up there eventually, which will be good for them. But they give Romeo Dobbs a lot of money. Like a lot. Yeah. I like that Elijah, a Tucker signing, but they're not like markedly better than they were last year, in my opinion.

And they sort of just had everything go right for them last season. It's why we faded them to Super Bowl. Yeah. I mean, when Vegas hangs numbers like these, you got to pay attention. And it happens every once in a while where you look at these wind tolls and you're like, what's like the Patriots, how would they go down to nine and a half? Like that's crazy. And what they're saying is, no, it should actually probably even be lower.

That's usually what that means. and they're still taking they're taking money on the over. I think that the draft Kings is begging you to to bet the over and assume that the Patriots all will be well this year. We know what happens with the teams that don't win the Super Bowl. We've seen all the things that can go wrong with the Patriots.

You know, they don't have a high draft pick to add anything to either their offensive line or playmakers. Losing Stefan Diggs is probably not a big deal. Romeo Dobbs, nice player, but I'm not sure that they're going to end up with AJ Brown like the internet. seems to think.

So I think they have some work to do on offense. I would lean under here, but it is possible that variable can work a miracle. But I do find this number to be pretty interesting. They're telling you take the under. Yes, 100%. This one surprised me. The Saints are at 7.5.

I don't need to spend a ton of time on the Saints, probably. Everyone loves Tyler Shuck, I guess, huh? He seemed to play well last year. Look, to be honest with you, I did not watch Los Saints football last season. think anyone did. So I don't feel like I'm qualified quite yet to tell you how I feel about them, other than I think Shuck from what I saw played well.

They bring back most of their team from last season. I think Kellan Moore is a good coach. I mean, it feels like this is probably a good, a good team-ish next year, but I'm not wager than any dollars on that. And also, remember, this division is not very good. That's why this division is all, seven and a half wins, I think. Yeah.

Yeah, I guess. I feel like Chuck, he over and delivered on expectations, so people are forever going to be impressed with him. But hey, maybe seven and a half is possible. I do not have a great angle on the Saints. I do have some opinions about,

finally, one of your former teams, New York Giants, their total is it's seven and a half, and I think people are surprised it's not higher. Having said that, minus 125,

to bet the under, so that is where the money is going. What do you think of this number for the Giants. What's your, what's your thought? I think you feel strongly on this one. Well,

I'm, I'm, I, I am sort of split. Like, I think, I think they're going to be way better. Um,

but I still am not convinced on just about anything that they have other than their defensive line. Like, I think Harbaal will certainly make them improved. I think they will just be a tougher team to play. Um, but they did a lot of moving around in, in free agency and stuff,

but I don't feel like they've, drastically change their team. They've sort of like shuffled the deck chairs a bit. For example, like they don't bring back O'Caricay, but they bring in Tremaine Edmins. And it's like, okay, like, is that way better? I'm not sure. You know, they have high traffic that could make a difference.

You know, if they were to pick another great receiver, if they were to maybe get another offensive lineman to sort of match what they have on Andrew Thomas. Like, that'd be great, but I just, I don't see it. Eight wins for this team. think would be a little bit surprising. But it is Harbaugh, and I think, you know, the improvement from just adding a competent coaching staff

will be meaningful, but I'm not convinced. So are we sure like Harbaugh still has it? Love this take. Let's hear it. I mean, his team's got underachieved at the end, right? Like, I mean, they were good in 24, but did, you know, the playoffs just, you know, then last year just, I know there was injuries to Lamar. I get that.

But it did feel like at times, and look, he won a ton of games in Baltimore. Look, his last four years, 10, 13, 12, and 9, and you mean 8th, like a lot of wins, okay? Like, there's no doubt about it. But it just does feel like his teams

never reach their full potential, whatever that potential is, whether that's, you know, the playoffs, the regular season, game by game. Maybe he's renewed in New York, and it's certainly fair to say, but his team is not best. than it was in Baltimore as of right now.

They have a great defensive line. I think their offense line's not as bad as people want to make it out to be. You know, the wide receiving corps is fine. The running backs are fine. I just don't know. To me, Cam Scadaboo is not a number one guy. Trace is not either. They're like one Bs or twos.

Likely and doesn't do much for me at that position. Dart, I think, is really good or can be really good. But he's got a whole A, he's got to stop getting concussed, which will be, which will be important, right? So it's got to stop getting hurt. I just the Giants feel like just a stayaway team for much of anything this year to we know what they are

Yeah What would you do if you were If you had to pick fifth Like it's you know Yeah okay so this is this is where I think This is why you know I'm of the best player available Philosophy for the most part

And if you're at five And let's just say that The latest Daniel Jeremiah mock draft I'll just use Daniel Jeremiah as mock draft I think it had I'll top my head head. It was obviously Mendoza, David Bailey, number two to the Jets. And then it was, I think, Francis 3, I have it right here, Francis 3, Jeremiah Love, and then Sunny Stiles at 5. I mean, if

Sunny Stiles is there at 5, you take him, right? I mean, like, that's, it sort of just feels like best guy. Jeremiah Love is there at 5. I think you take Jeremiah Love because he, right, like, you saw what Derek Henry did for you, right? Like, why would you not take Jeremiah Love? If Jeremiah Love and styles are gone, which is certainly possible, So, I mean, he has Averro Reese, Averroes going, too, not David Bailey. Then you would take, I think you would take an offense alignment at five.

I think you're just best player available is the way to go at five. If the Giants take a running back with Joe Shane sitting there as the GM, that's like the ultimate cuck chair move for Joe Shane. Oh, they take him running back after they let Barkley go and he's going to be it for a whole year. He's in that, he's in that cuck chair shower. He's in the cuck chair, the couch. In this in this mock draft your commanders are drafting Ruben Bain Jr. Yeah, I don't see that one happening.

I don't know. I mean, I agree the Giants just have so many holes. I just, I'm looking at all their moves that they made. And it's just sort of like, okay, like they all seem fine. But then when you put it together, you're just sort of like, they really, really need some top and talent, especially on offense. I'm less sold on DART. I think he's fine.

and I think the division is going to be a very tough division again. So with Washington, hopefully improving. So, yeah, I think that number is fair. I don't really have a feel either side yet. How about the Jets? Their totals, five and a half. I was looking at this number and it felt like it screamed under, but then I didn't remember they kind of did have a nice sort of push

at the end of the season last year. But I don't know, do you think that they can get over, they can get six wins or more? I saw a tweet that is interesting here. Gino Smith was a seven-year backup quarterback who convinced everyone he's a starting caliber quarterback by going 27 and 22 in a team that won the Super Bowl immediately after replacing him.

And then he guided a team to the number one pick with the Raiders. And now he's a jet starting quarterback. That's a really great take. That's right. Okay, here's the deal. I get Gino Smith and Aaron Glenn, who I don't think is a good coach. I'm betting the under every time.

Should we just put should this be our bet? It's only minus 105. I feel like this is a pretty safe under. This is the one I was waiting to take by the way. The other day we talked about this. This is the one. Let's do it. This is, we're going to lock this in.

The first, the earliest bet we're going to make this year. The Jets under five and a half. Let's lock it. Okay. Let's, uh, let's see here. Is there anybody, who would you draft a figure of them? That's, that's an easier conversation. I mean, yes, best player available.

but like do you get the choice of pretty much anybody i would draft uh david bailey yeah interesting i like i think i would too um i don't you know i i can't sit here and claim i know the difference really between what rice and bailey or whatever brings but i do think if you find the best at drusher it's you know if you can't get a quarterback at number two that's probably the right thing to do here we go i'm trying to find the uh the the uh the wins here with my app i want but continue continue uh i'm going to find the jets one and uh here it is right here i got it okay yes sorry it's in the first bet of the 2026 seven season from our podcast is in exciting stuff fading aaron glen it's a tradition unlike any other here on our show you have to um all right the uh defending

two-time defending nfc east champs philadelphia eagles uh they are their win total is 10 and a half a team that is seemingly in crisis but everything seems fine all the time because they're the eagles um what do you think about that number uh for philly i don't love the eagles this is there do you it seems like there's so much that can go wrong with them and they're going to collapse at some point but so okay i made the bet the bet that's in um Let's go. Okay, so no AJ Brown, presumably, right? I think he's going to be traded.

I think he's going to be traded. You have no Stoutlanded offensive line coach, which is a huge deal, right, for your team. You replace your base of your whole office staff. Here's my problem with the Eagles, with the staff. You hired a first-time play caller who's been in the NFL two years as a coach, Sean Mannion, to be your, to be your offense coordinator. And it's not like Nick Siriani is like an offensive good. guru who can help, who can help. But he specifically is not an offensive guru, right?

And when you have a coach who hasn't coached a lot, how good are the adjustments going to be, which is the problem they've had for years now with Jalen Hertz, right? I just, I don't buy it, Matt. The problem is, the Cowboys win the division, the commanders, we're talking about watching a few minutes,

the Giants. I lean under more or anything else. I don't like their off... Not that I don't like their off-season, but I just don't like the vibes of the team right now. It's gonna... They feel like a team that... I'm not saying it's gonna happen.

Like, if it goes bad, it goes like five and 12 bad. Yeah, right. It does feel like at some point that it's going to happen. I don't know if I was standing in front of that train, would you do like an alt-all-seven-and-a-half or something like that? Yeah, maybe it's that. I mean, there are... it's just an infrastructure bet for them.

Like they, you know, when it's the trenches, when it's the secondary, when it's Barclay, when it's those receivers, they bring Goddard back. Like, they've done some stuff I really like. Like, I really liked the Wollen signing for them. I think Hollywood Brown is a fun piece for them. You know, the thing about, like,

remember Vic Fangio was around Super Bowl, Vic Fangio was like, maybe I'm going to retire. I guess I'll come back. It just, there's something off here. It's been off for a few years. And I think they've just been held together by like some strong leadership from guys like Lane Johnson and stuff. But this could get ugly.

But yeah, I don't know if I want to stand in front of this train. It just feels like the Eagles have been on top of the world for quite a while. You know, in this entire Siriani era, they've they've sort of exceeded expectations. So it's hard to bet against them. But yeah, I have this. same vibe. I'm just not sure that they have it this year. I agree. Let's take our first break here, Matt, and we'll get to some more, some more wagers. All right, Matt, we're back here. More over-unders here. Maybe we've just picked the pace up a little bit here. I don't know. We have the

Steelers next here. Yeah, the Steelers with no quarterback. How can you bet this with no quarterback? They have no quarterback right now. What do you? Yeah, this is eight and a half. Why don't we save some time here? You can't bet this with no quarterback or Aaron Rogers. No. Why don't we talk about the Super Bowl champs? The Seahawks, 10 and a half is their total. Interesting number, again, kind of low for a team that just lost a few pieces, I guess. What do you think about that number and their chances for next year?

All right. So I think that they're an under team. I mean, we're an under team for everyone. Someone has to win a lot of games here. but the Clint Kubiak thing really really worries me. So Kuibak left the team. And this very, very much reminds me of the lines last year. Yes.

Where you lose Ben Johnson and you're just like 15% worse on offense. And that cost you two or three games, you know? And the pushback is, well, Donald led the league in turnovers last year, if he doesn't turn the ball over, I don't really care about turnover his, Matt? Or me like the league interceptions.

Like, you know, interceptions happen. Like, you throw interceptions. Like, it's not that big of a deal. How are the interceptions, right? Like, what are they like, how will they look? What are they, how bad are they?

I'm not worried about that. I just think the office can be different. And they've lost some players as well. I would lean under more and anything else. Yeah, I would too. they've just sort of like they've they've lost more than you realize and I think their best thing last year was just their overall depth like everywhere you looked they had just a ton of options like they didn't have you know demarcus lawrence had a great season but it wasn't there there was no dominant one guy on the defensive line there wasn't one dominant guy in the secondary even kenneth walker who won super bowl MVP like that was a timeshare all year they just had a million options they were

really well coached. You know, when you look at, I mentioned Kenneth Walker, like, their backfield went from Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet to Emmanuel Wilson and like Charmone when he's healthy, which who knows when that's going to be? So that's just another reason to think, like, well, maybe they just

won't be pitching their absolute fastball the year after the Super Bowl. It's obviously really hard to go back to back or, you know, put two great seasons back together. Yes. And defenses do tend, I feel like defense is just in the recent history of the league do tend to get figured out

maybe a little bit more quickly than offenses. So, you know, I bet somebody will, one of those, you know, offensive minds in that division will figure out some way to overcome what Mike McDonald's able to bring. But 10.5 under would probably be my play, but not dying to do it.

Might be dying to bet the under on the next team here. The 49ers, 10 and a half, once again, a team that every year I feel down on and every year I'm wrong. This year I feel like I might be right. What do you think of the Niners? What's the reasoning you're down on them this year? Sort of the talent and sort of old,

oldness of the team? It's so fragile, man. It's every year they're just a year older. You're not going to get the same season out of McCaffrey. There's no chance. They're, you know, their big signing is Mike Evans. It's like, okay, Mike Evans is your guy.

Like, go ahead. Mike Evans is a great example of the media gaslighting you, okay? Because look, guys, Mike is, he's my agent has Mike Evans. Mike is great, okay? He's probably a Hall of Famer. He's one like Walter Payne Man of the year, like great, great person, right? But he's now on the other side of 30, Matt, off a very injured year and can't run as well anymore. Yeah.

Every right receiver in this group has fallen off a cliff so fast in their careers. We've watched it happen with other guys. It's like it's not a surprise when it happens to Mike Like why can't we just say that Why can't we just say like you know Everyone I see is like man great signing Big physical guy for for for for for for for for for He can't move the same way anymore

Yeah well dude at least the 49ers keep people healthy So I mean he'll he definitely won't have any The memes about the hamstring stuff like his hamstring just like falling off the bone It's the electrical substation like they show like a like a turkey leg And I know that Mike Evans has been healthier, but look, to be fair, in 2024, he played 14 games he where he barely got that 1,000 yards. You remember that last day of the season, like the 10th was getting those yards. Last year, he played eight games, only had 30 catches, 368 yards.

He has lowest yards per reception last season, his lowest long of his career. He's not the same guy anymore. And again, there's nothing wrong with that. He's just on the other side of 30, and he was hurt a bunch last season. Yeah. I mean, Evans is 32, McCaffrey is 29, Kittle is 32, Trent Williams is 38. Like, there's just a lot of things that can go wrong, you know, on offense. Defensively, maybe they are due to actually be healthier given how bad last year was.

But again, they lost another great coordinator in Sala. So I think, I don't know, I just, 10 and a half is just betting so much on the miracle that's sort of the Kyle Shannan pulled to come back and him to do it again. I just, I don't see it. The 49ers of two have this history of ping ponging where it's like one year they're amazing, one year they're terrible. And then they just sort of pop back and forth. I also, I mentioned it last podcast.

Like if the Rams are kicking tires on AJ Brown, like you know they're going for it. So I think the Rams could really run it up in this division. The Seahawks are still, you know, we're not sure if they're winning 11 games, but they're still going to be good. I just, I don't know, man. I just don't see it with the Niners. But I say it every year and I'm always wrong. so maybe don't listen to me,

but I would definitely lean strongly on the under. We finally get it under. Yeah, yeah, seriously. All right, Tampa. Another tricky team to cap here. Eight and a half is their total. I think this is just an NFC South comment more than the bucks.

If they were in any other division, it would be seven and a half and you take the under. Yeah, no question. This team is, this team makes me sad, man. Like, what is their identity? Like, I don't understand

what direction they're heading. I don't understand, like, what there is to feel really good about. They keep aging too. I guess maybe they just think you know, Bucky Irving and at Bucca or the future and that they can carry them to, you know, the playoffs or something, but I don't know what to do

with this team. I think you stay away from this team and you just, you know, you just watch them. It feels like, you know, we'll see what the schedule looks like to sort of where they map out the schedule for them, but it just feels like a team that sort of had their peak a few years ago and then just sort of

it just sort of died. You know, like They have their chance. It's just not going to get home. Yeah, I think I agree. This feels like a team that's going to be tearing it down in a year. Even if they make the playoffs, it's just sort of like, how much longer can we go here? And I think Evans leaving is like sneaky, a big deal.

Like, that should have been a buck for life kind of thing. But the fact that he was like, I don't see it. I'm out of here. I think it's kind of telling. But we're down on everybody. Here's a team everyone's pumped about. the Tennessee Titans, their win total is six and a half, extremely active free agency, new coach, Brian Daibol, Cam Ward.

Are you feeling optimistic about the Titans next year? And God, do we have to talk about the Titans more regularly on this show? Please say no. No, not really. This is, again, like, there's sort of two teams that feel like, you know, media as a side are going to be much better this year. That's the Vegas Raiders and the Titans. I trust the Vegas Raiders more with their personnel and with their coach.

Yeah. I was just kind of crazy to say. Everyone's on Tennessee, man. I just... Yeah. I would say this number's going to move up. I think this number is going to, you know, it's at minus 140 on that,

on draft kings to take the over. I have a feeling this will bump up to seven and a half. They're going to, you know, they're going to pick someone at, what are they number four, that everyone's going to love, you know, whether that's love himself or whether that's another receiver,

or maybe they end up with an edge rush to put next to those two great defensive tackles they have now. Like, I'm curious what, uh, you know, what they're going to do. But, you know, for people to be excited about Robert Sala and Brian Dayball, like that, that to me is the media doing that thing where it's just like, wait, what? Like, we're excited that Robert Sala's bringing the band back together with a bunch of guys who he's coached before. Like, we're sure that's going to work.

Um, we're sure Wondale Robinson and Daniel Bellinger are going to be difference makers on offense. Like, we're sure that's going to happen. Um, so I, I'm a little bit skeptical here, but I feel like we've been skeptical on every team. So I don't know. I just, I'm not,

I'm not super excited about this team. I feel like we live in skepticism. Like, this is the point of it. Like if you don't have, if everyone team's going to be great, well, you get plenty of other places to find that information. That's right.

I have a question for you that I asked Hank earlier this week. Would you rather have Ward or Mendoza if you had the choice of people? picking one of them, number one overall. And best other college film, you take Mendoza. I think that, though, that, geez, if you gave me Cam Ward and, like, Sean McVeigh paired together, I mean, it's just,

the physical gifts of Camber. This is the thing about the physical gifts thing, right? Like, it's just, like, this just has, just the physical gifts are really, really good. So I would say, I think I'd still take Cam Ward what would you do? I don't know.

I don't feel like I know Mendoza well enough yet, but I think I think winning is a thing that maybe I overvalue and I think the way that he played this year with the target on their back all season, stepped up in big games. Like, I think that that should count for something.

I think Ward is probably like the better player, but I think that Mendoza is like the guy I'd feel maybe more confident in just based on like you said, like how the college, just how we perform consistently. I don't know, that's probably how I would lean, but I didn't watch like enough of Mendoza this year

to have like a real opinion. Mendoza, the only thing on his film that really doesn't show is like he just, there's not a lot of Sunday throws. It's not that he can't do it, Matt. It's just that they just didn't ask him to do it. Like those are two separate things, right? Interesting.

They didn't ask him to do it. But he can't. It's there. It's there. Yeah. I feel pretty sure he's going to be a competent quarterback. And I think Ward showed flashes of it, and he kept them in some games that they didn't belong in.

But I'm not sure he's super well positioned to succeed. And I do think Mendoza just like, I think his confidence. And I think obviously that coach in Vegas, like they have to have some good pieces around him. I'm concerned they haven't really done that. But I do think that he's just going to get. off. He's going to start hot and probably like take take a step forward ahead of Ward, but we'll

see. Tougher division than Ward for sure. Yes. All right, same of my favorite team for last. Washington, I swear we don't have to spend that much time on this. Their win total is seven and a half. What do you think here? I don't know what this team is, buddy. You tell me what this team is. I mean, I think it's pretty simple. If Jayden's, if Jaden's, if Jaden plays 17 games, this is extremely easy over. And if he doesn't, I doubt it would be an over at all. I think they did a lot to improve. I think their defense is, their defense was, you know,

they did the thing that I am accusing Denver of potentially doing, of assuming that everything was just going to be the same and maybe better the next year with little change. They tore the defense down. They're going to have like six new starters, all of whom are young and good. I'm a little worried about the second receiver. thing until the Brandon Ayuk transaction whenever that comes will become official but if Jaden

play is like why wouldn't this be it over like he's he's one of those guys they would have a little more luck right I mean yeah they you would think like their entire team fell apart last year so you know they they they still have some holes I think on you know I think their draft pick is going to be very interesting whether they continue to fortify on defense or maybe they take a receiver to put next to McLaren. But I think, you know, the first time coordinator's thing is going to be interesting for them. But I think this all comes down to Daniels. If he plays, like this team is absolutely going to be competitive.

I think that's probably correct, yes. Any other words? Any other futures are looking at? I haven't done much of future. There's some draft stuff popping up too, which is kind of nice. We should probably get a draft problem. on the, oh, extended, you extended Jeremy Reeves. Hank just set that over.

Congratulations, commanders. Wow, very useful data point there. Are you, are you an Orioles fan or a Nationals fan? I don't know. I'll root for both of them, I guess, but I don't even know if I'm doing that based on where I live now. So you mean to come a Dodgers fan? You're going to be a traitor?

No, I don't, like, maybe. I have no, like, problem with the Dodgers, because it's like they grew up. Well, I know you do. It'll be betrayal. Yeah, I just, I don't know. Okay, I don't care about the Fultty Fanatics Award, the Fanatics Flag Football game that Hank just texts this about.

I don't know what I'm doing. I'm going to let my son pick a baseball team, but I don't care really. I've root for both the Orioles and the Nationals. As a, as a loyal employee, you guys would all watch the inaugural Fanatics Five Football. Classic. It's in Los Angeles. So make sure.

Employ of who? Saudi Arabia. We're the one company that doesn't work for them. We definitely do not work for them. But yeah, draft props will certainly put it in there. Did you by the way, we got like five minutes left here. Did you watch the World Baseball Classic, my chance?

I didn't really. I just felt like the games were all at inconvenient times for me, but I obviously paid Right at bedtime. Yeah. I was getting like eight million texts about like the Venezuelan batting order as I was like putting my son down. I'm like, what is going on?

Why are people so into this? But I think, I mean, I respect that they've turned it into something out of nowhere. I think that that's that's really almost like inspiring. Like the NBA has tried this with the cup. I think that other leagues are sort of trying to artificially just make these things come out of nowhere. But this one felt like it broke through. Like it feels like this really got people's attention.

So a couple of things here. One is that other countries already have baseball as an established sport, which makes it, you know, that makes them more passionate about the sport. It's hard to break in to South America in the NBA. Because you don't have, it's not an entrenched sport in South America, right? Like it's hard to break in there. It's hard to break into Asia. And they've done a better job in the NBA because they've had some players come from Asia, right?

But like, you don't have a, the baseball's, filled with players from South America. Like, in some of the best players in baseball are from countries outside the United States, Matt. So there's a passion level there for the sport that you certainly saw. And I, one thing

I did love is I loved how much fun everyone but our country had playing this game. Our country was a bunch of stuck up guys who didn't seem like they had any fun playing baseball. I think that's why they lost primarily. Like, to not, I, they didn't show,

Cal Raleigh was our catcher at various times in Will Smith and one of his teammates walked up to him before in a bat try to shake his hand be like hey bud what's up wouldn't shake his hand like what really

like other teams are are playing drums in the locker room playing music before the game and we bring in like a C-L Team 6th guy to talk about nothing with sports and baseball like I you know like there's a time and a place for those type of speakers, Matt.

Before a big baseball game is not the time in place, in my opinion. And someone's been in those locker rooms before. If I'm ready for a big football, a Super Bowl game and in comes like a sealed Team 6 guy, like that's, what is that? There's definitely time in place for those discussions that be had. Absolutely. They're great to have. I've been in those rooms before.

But not before a big game, Matt. Like other teams are having fun. They're having the time of their life. Like you saw Venezuela won and everyone went down to their knees and I think one of the coolest moments was, I don't know if you saw this on social media, the closure for Venezuela. So I think a one and two count. They'd zoom in on him. He's getting set.

He's crying already. Like he knew that pitch was going to be a strike. And he threw that ball like 101 miles an hour, the true velocity of that pitch. So I just love the passioning other countries showed for the sport. Bryce Harper showed a little bit of it when he hit the home run. It was nice to see. But we just came up short, man. We couldn't hit.

We had four runs in the last 18 innings. And the Aaron Judge memes and tweets were just, were just unbelievably epic. And I don't think he's actually that bad of a hitter in the clutch. It's just we hold up, you know, we hold those guys on such pedestals because they're such good players that if they do anything wrong in the postseason or in big games like this, we amplify that.

I actually think his numbers are not bad in the postseason. But they're putting on James Hardin, like James Arden's body, his face on Aaron Judge's body. It was brutal, man. I think you could accuse America right now across the board, not to sort of go into our political corner. But, like, I don't, I think we're just, like, our self-image is a little weird. Like, we should have a little bit more fun.

Like, I don't understand. I think you're right. Like, having a SEAL Team 6 guy in there for, like, a made-up baseball thing. Like, yeah, maybe it should be somebody who wants to talk about how fun it is to represent your country in a big spot. Like, it's, you know. Or just put on some fucking music and enjoy yourself in the locker room. Exactly.

Like, and it just feels like America's taking it. Like, it's just, everything's just so intense and macho. It's like, can we have some fun? Like,

what are we doing? So there's this thing on the internet. I'm sure you haven't seen this, but like, I don't know how I got to it. Because I've been following a lot of the war stuff. People were posting photos of like, of like,

seal team operators and you and special force operating in the 90s, Matt. And they're wearing like jeans in a t-shirt. And they're carrying like their M-16. Like, they're not jacked up like yoked up dudes that we have now with tattoos everywhere like we just

got to a point where like that's like the image now of what a tough guy is right and I'm not degrading of course any of the military they're very tough and they're much tougher than me but the fact is like to your point like that's what we think is like our image now of America right and that that's why we have a guy in the locker room

who's talking the team who's nothing to do with baseball or the or the world's or the world baseball classic and yeah We're portraying that now on the national stage where we just like, it's what it is. Like that's what we try to portray as like manly. I mean, this whole thing like this is like this whole thing where, you know, the people, you know, there's an image people want to have of what manliness means in our country.

It's not all what you think of it is. Yeah. I think there's like there seems to be groups of people like take the, take the Super Bowl halftime show. I don't speak any Spanish Zero it sure seemed like they were having fun Like sure seemed fun to listen Like who cares? It's like yeah this is fun Like a bunch of like attractive people dancing around

And the music sounds cool Like or does it have to be some other thing? You know what I mean? Like can we just like have some fun once in a while? I think that are we're turning into like That jack guy at the gym who wears the headphones And drops his weights really loud And everyone's like yeah cool

That guy like he seems pretty jacked But like he seems like he sucks Like, do we have to be like that? Can we be cool? Like, I don't know. Should we try that? I'm with you, man. Look, I, it just, it's, and you listen to some people in the ministers to talk about

this war and it's like, again, we talk about it's two weeks. I don't want to get into it again. It's just like, it's, come on, man, come on. That's not the image that we are as a country. I don't think maybe that's what we are now, Matt. Maybe me and you are wrong. Maybe that's what we are now. We're just a jacked up gym, bro.

That's our country now. I hope not, man. Let's have some fun out there. I don't think it is, but I legit think we lost because we didn't have fun. Like, I think that's what an incredible take. That's the best take we've done on this show in quite a while.

I hope people made it this far because I think we lost because we didn't have fun. Our manager, our manager did not take it, did not know the rules, didn't appear to take it as seriously as he should. And we just didn't have fun. other teams are having the most fun of their lives, man, and we just didn't have fun

because we want to portray this image of like this like, again, the jacked-up gym bro, man, like that's what we want to be on the national stage. We want to be pounding beers in the locker room of the Olympic hockey team when you did not play in the game. Right, yeah, exactly. Like that, that is, okay, beyond the point of like,

can you imagine James Comey doing the same thing? Or like, Jay Edgar Hoover, like, pounding beers with the Yankees, right? Like, you'd be like, what is wrong with you? The fact is, like, that is what people think is cool. Like that image of, I didn't play in this game.

I have no connection to it whatsoever, but I'm going to go in the locker room and pound beers and take videos of myself doing it. Like that image is what, like, some people think, I think the majority of the country thinks, like, is cool, Matt. And I don't think that that's like what we are as a country.

Maybe we are. Maybe we're me and you were the wrong ones, man. It's really possible. I don't think the majority of the country thought that was cool. I think the majority of the company had the same country, had the same reaction of like, sorry, who is that? Did he play in the game? Like, I do think that there's a fair amount of,

I think most people probably thought that, but they aren't necessarily the loudest. But, yeah. I should look up if Jay, Edgar Hoover party with the Yankees back in the day. Yeah, I think he was in there. Jay Edgar Hoover. Notoriously chill, fun dude.

Jay Edgar Hoover was there putting back champagne with Mickey Mantle for sure. It's just like, it's just like, it's just like, oh man. All right. Well, you have to go. I'm making, how about this? My son's on spring break this week and we have nothing to do at all. But we are, his favorite food he said at school is bang, bang shrimp. Nice.

And we're going to make it for lunch together, me and him. So that's what I'm going to do while watch college basketball. I think our thing froze. So I think we're done, Matt. We'll talk to guys next week, everyone. Take care. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the college basketball.