Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Can The Bills Be Stopped Will The Chiefs End Their Skid In New York Week 3 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz and co-host Matt Ford are back with their Week 3 NFL picks against the spread. From the Bills vs. Dolphins blowout potential to why the Texans might be better than the Jaguars, the guys break down every matchup, trends, totals, and props. They highlight ugly underdogs, divisional dogs, and the teams most likely to cover this week. Plus, they look at futures bets, survivor pools, and even college football angles. If you want sharp NFL betting insight and smart analysis, this episode has you covered. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This shows up on my calendar is G-S-S-Y live. And my wife one day, like a couple months ago, goes, she's looking at my calendar. She's like, I'm sorry, what is gassy live? What are you doing? And, you know, noon on a Wednesday, gassy live. Hello, welcome to Jeff Schwartz of Smaradu. Jeff Schwartz of Smarroo is presented by Draft Kings. Draft Kings, the crown is yours.

Today is Thursday to 10th of 18th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. It is Thursday. it means it is our gambling episode. We are going to talk over all the NFL games that we can give you our five favorite wagers. We'll talk all the games. We'll go over sides, totals, props.

And then I'll give you college at the end. Matthew, five and five through two weeks. Pretty good. Maybe our best start ever. I'm excited. Sadly, yeah, we had our best week two ever. We went two and three. Well done.

We did it. I'm not even kidding. That was honestly was probably our best week two ever. I just I just wanted to point out I think you said the name of our show in one syllable. I don't know how you did it, but you were able to say Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you in one syllable. I just wanted to commend you for that. It can be a handful to say at times. I've done it along.

We've done seven years now, Matt, I've been entering this show. And so I just got used to doing it. I will say it's very nice to see you today. You too, buddy. Look at a studious with your, with your glasses. Is it even a word? Yes. Extra studious.

With your glasses on. I've been studying the trends, buddy like you know it's not because i ran out of contacts and didn't notice until today that i would be wearing these glasses it's because i've just been locked in on week three trends and there actually are quite a few um that that we can exploit today um back to our show name really quickly this shows up on my calendar is g ss y live and my wife one day like a couple months ago goes she's looking at my calendar she's like i'm sorry what is gassy live like what are you doing at noon on a Wednesday gassy live.

So yeah, that's, and I, you know, I chose not to explain it to her. So she has no idea what we do. That's, it's fine. My wife does no idea what I do either. She recently told me to put like all my stuff into this calendar we have. Like on the, we have like one of those, those on the counter, you know, lights up and whatnot. And it has to be different color code and stuff. First time since I retired.

I retired in 10 years ago, basically now, where she wants to know when I do my stuff. I don't know why. I'm like, you're at work. I'm in the middle of the day. Why do you care what time I record my podcast at? But yeah, I actually put my on on Texans Jags. Like, that's, she's locking in, man. It's never, it's never too late.

She just has no idea that I gamble, which is good and bad, I guess. I have no clue. But nonetheless, this week, Matt, is going to test our strength and our resolve because there's some ugly sides. And last week, we hit one of them. We hit the Colts last week. There's a super ugly side. New England was probably more on the ugler side.

Then we lost some public sides. It happens. But this will test us this week, Matt. And starting off immediately with, um, there isn't a football. I like a side here. We're not going to play it. I don't think, but I'll give you my reasoning for it. I'm scared, uh, of what side you're on.

Either side is terrifying because the bills are favored by 12 and a half points. Yeah. Against the Miami Dolphins at home, the dolphins could be in full pack-up shop mode, but also as we'll get into big underdogs in week three after not covering in the first two weeks tend to do much better. So I'm curious if you're going to be able to convince me on either side here. So one thing that we've discussed on this podcast, like distinctly discussed this, Matt, a lot is Buffalo Bills propensity to blowout teams at home.

Have we discussed this before? It's a thing we talked about. Yeah, but let's remind people. Okay. So last year they beat bad teams, by the way, bad teams. Jacksonville, 47 to 10 at home. Tennessee, 3410 at home. Now, close game in the dolphins.

The dolphins weren't terrible last season. They don't only qualify as that. They beat the Niners. Remember this is week 13. Niners were just sort of shell themselves. 35, 10. Close game to New England, so not all the time, right? Three point win lay in the year.

They beat the Jets 40 to 14 all the way in week 17. Last season, two years ago, I should say, right? They beat the Raiders by 28 at home. They beat the Dolphins by 28 home. they beat the Giants 14-9. I think we actually had Buffalo in that game. They beat the Jets, 32 to 6. This is what they do, Matt.

They beat a lot of bad teams by a lot of points. 12 and a half is a lot. Don't get me wrong. But you see something that's pretty important here. The Dolphins, man, it's bad. There was a situation at the end of that game last week where they appeared they scored a go-ahead touchdown with about a minute left.

But A-chan stepped out of bounds, right? Yeah. And they had a lot of time to review the play. Out of the review, Mamie got a delay of game and a false start back to back. You had a delaying game with the review. Like, you had time to get a play set up and they didn't do it. And now you, you, you, Mike McDaniel saying something I've said for a while, but he didn't even say it correctly, which is that you lose more games than you win, in my opinion, you know, with mistakes in the NFL than you actually win.

He butcher that quote after the game. He said some of that effect of like, you got to just win the games. like Dennis Allen quote, right? Like, you're just like, or that's great, you're just like, or that's great. One of the two guys. Danny Green, there we go.

Danny Green. Okay, I got it right eventually. And like it, it, uh, it has the feeling of, of like, get down early quit this week. And lastly, too, last thing,

that game was hot in Miami. And even Raebel's after the game. I was listening to him. They put out a Patriots, put out like a victory speech that he gave. And he's like, guys, carry you this week basically saying that like we'll come back Wednesday and skip Monday or

Tuesday workout the Dolphins play Thursday like they play tonight Matt so um I just think this is a bad spot for Miami 12 and a half is wild and not worth our time for our picks um I may have taken an 11 and a half the bills on my own but for our picks I think it's it's we just stay away from that one yeah I have a I mean this either feels like one of those games that buffalo Buffalo tends to always have like one weird game in the first month this season. This either turns into the game that gets Mike McDaniel fired or it turns into one of these like, wait, it's like Tyree Kill has 250 yards and it's 29, 28 with two minutes left. Like, you know what I mean? Like there's only two outcomes.

And the, I agree. I think you're I think you're right on everything. But obviously, like it's just not probably going to be one of my favorites. It's just even if this was a Sunday night game, I think I'd probably be with you, even though that would take away the short rest thing. But the Thursday night thing, there's just so much, so much weird stuff that happens on these Thursday games. So I'm willing to consider it because I think you're, I think you're dead on. But obviously not dying to lay 12 and a half if we don't have to. But I do honestly, really, I think you're right.

So as we go through today, one thing that we talked about that I'm going to include in here is like, We have a lot of money to spend for futures wagers, and we can discuss where we want to spend some money right now. I think we have the Dolphins under wins anyways, so maybe we're double-dipping here. But under five and a half is still available right now, plus 105. Wow. They have bills, jets, panthers, chargers,

Browns, Falcons. And then after the Falcons, it's Ravens, Bills, commanders, Saints, Jets, Steelers, Bengals, Bucks, Patriots. I think we're making six games. Six to their next, you can't even do math. Six to their next 15 games. I mean, the Jets probably, that's about it, maybe. I don't know.

I'm not saying we take that, Matt. I wish there was a way to look at like, DK has on first coach fire, things like that. But there's ways to maybe make some money here. I'm not sure that that's the right way for now in the Dolphins. Yeah, I'm not sure what to do with them. I do think they're not likely to win six games. But this is one of those things.

Like every year there's one of those teams that just starts abjectly, terribly. And then you look up like the Panthers last year. everyone was done with them. Their season looked like it was completely, you know, a wash. And then you look up and it's like, huh,

they're actually like winning some games. They're covering seven of their last nine. But I'm down to take their run there. That seems like a smart way to play it. Would you do, would you do no playoffs minus 1400? No. Minus 1400 that I think there's,

there's an air conditioning repair company on my roof and minus 2,000 that you guys are catching out of my mic. Apologies for that. It's okay. So let's move on to the Sunday games. The Packers, who are coming off of a long week of rest, maybe the best team in the league are at Cleveland's. Cleveland's had a very strange season. They outperformed Baltimore in every offensive metric last week, which makes no sense because they lost by 1,000.

And the Packers opens, I think, at 9.5 and it's down to 8.5 because all the Sharps love Cleveland every year. Do you have a side here? I would love to pass. Oh, man. What I love about this game, too, is this remember last year when all those sharks were in clearly, literally, we can just got their ass handed them every single week, Matt. This is the same exact situation. Yeah.

Every week they're on the Browns. And they're just like, they're just, yeah, there's a, I'm going to find the tweet right here. There's been a wild start to the season so far. NFL closing favorites of four more points or 12 and a straight up in the end of the season, which is wild in front of Evan Abrams they've won 90% of games since week 13 which is just

just wild like they're just not I'm not saying they're covering these games but they're also just not losing them like it's one of those really you know they win by 7 or 10 or 15 or 12 something like that I mean look the Browns are past man but just yikes

it can smile a little bad for the bro yeah let's go next game then the other thing that could happen here is like it's Joe Flacco against that pass rush with 10 days rest Like this could get really, really ugly. And I don't know. The floor against the spread early in the season.

He's terrific. I don't see a way that this, the smart play definitely would be the Browns over time. But we don't have to make that one of our five. Yeah. One thing, too, that's not up yet because it's, is recorded this on Wednesday. But Joe Flacco's passing yards if they ever put up, take the under. Because if he doesn't play, well, they're going to go to Dylan Gabriel or DeNor Sanders. I think that's a play to make here.

But let's get to the next game here. We might have a plan this one. Interesting. Okay, the Rams are going east to play the Eagles in the early window. Eagles have bounced around this week. They're at three and a half as we record. I'm just curious what side you're on here. So this is going to be interesting because the sharps are on the Rams and the public are on the Rams, Matt.

And I like the Rams to cover this game. I like the Eagles. I mean, I don't like the Eagles to cover this one, but it was four and a half. And I just personally, I know this sounds silly, but like not being on,

I don't like being on the side of everyone in this game. So I would pass on this one, even though I think the Rams are certainly a play. One of my sharp friends who I trust, you gave out Rams four and a half on Sunday to me. So that's obviously not available now. But that's obviously just a CLV for some of those sharp guys, right?

You got four and a half. now three and a half, maybe it gets the three. You could buy back on Eagles. You can try to have a one point middle there, Matt. But I would stay awake. I just, I'm really worrisome that everyone's on the Rams. I think my side here would be Philly, to be honest, for that reason. I think people really love the idea that the Rams kept it close in the playoffs last year,

which they have. But the Rams haven't really looked good in two games. And, you know, they snuck out of that game in Houston. They held serve last week, but I just, I don't love how they've performed. The only thing about this game that could be really good for them is the weakness at corner for Philly. They're going to have a really tough time with those receivers, but like they're not going to be able to run the ball. Stafford's going to be under pressure, which, you know, they played Houston week one, obviously like that. And he held up.

But I just, I don't know about the Rams coming east and winning this game. I think everyone's just kind of out on Philly. They're bored of them. Everyone's bad at the tush push. Like, I just think everyone loves. bet people like to bet the ramps they're fun and i think that the everybody's sort of talking to themselves and so oh philly like they barely beat this dallas team like kansas city like doesn't you know they don't have it whatever but like they're home and the other thing about them at home like jalen hurts

in 30 games that as as a um favorite at home he's 27 and three like the eagles are going to win this game and they can win going away pretty easily like if they're up by seven barclay could just ice it you know like it's it's very possible they could win this on by a lot. So I think that what you said is right about about sort of why people on this game, I will say that I think

like a lot of people like myself, like we were high in the Rams, remember Matt and when we talked to revision previews, but we said like, what about Matt Stafford's back? And that would really help us off on the Rams.

I think even, we might even take it to Rams under. I need to look and see what we got. But now that it appears his back is fine, I think a lot of people are back on the Rams now, right?

And that, to me is why we're seeing the Rams love. It was like, well, I'm off. I mean, there were pros that were putting out, like, I'm on under Rams to nine and a half after it was, you know, Stafford's going to see the back specialist, you know, like they just were reacting to the news in the moment. But it turns out he might be fun.

Now he might get hit him and might all go to shit map. But right now he's fine and they played better in week one than week two because week one, they hadn't, he didn't practice at all, right? So it made sense why he would be a little bit slow in week one. We saw a better week two against, you know, a bad, a bad tiny. team. I'm okay. I'm okay staying away on this one because, buddy, the, the ugly division dogs start soon. They're coming. And I'm going to introduce a theory here that about this week. So teams that are two and oh against the spread in week three cover 38.6% of the time. Wow. That's really

interesting. Obviously, that usually applies more to favorites. Favorites have their worst outright week as straight up winners in week three. That's a very confusing stat to say. What basically means is like proportional to every other week of the season, favorites do worse straight up in week three than any other week. By 10 percentage points, it's significant. It's 67% as favorites through the season, 56.8% in week three. So this is the week to take the home dogs who are going against teams that are,

you know, two and no against the spread. We'll get to a few of those. but the Rams have covered two have covered both games and they were both ugly covers against two AFC South teams that are weird. So I think they're a little inflated so I know the hook is kind of annoying but we're getting a good number on Philly

so I'm happy to include that in the Mabees. Yeah and Hank points out 460 rush yards for Sequin against the Rams in two games last year. That seems like a lot of yards Jeffrey speaking of ugly games, the Jets and Tyrod

Taylor has announced today Justin Fields will not play in this game. Going to Tampa Bay, winners of two straight, do we have the stomach to take the touchdown with the Jets? That's the right face. I don't. That is the face you make

when you have to consider betting the windless Jets on the road at any point. I mean, Tampa's 2-0 with two road wins. Now they're back home. I, one o'clock game, it's going to be 85 and humid. Jets back up quarter. back. Look, man, using it that it was important about the Jets. I think you're right, man. We sure in Glenn can coach defense? Hey.

This, the take is taking off. I'm seeing it happen. Are we sure? I've said on other shows. I'm like, are we sure that he's good as a defense coach? The Jets, before the season, we all said good on defense, right? Good personnel. They've stunk for two weeks now on defense. Um, so, uh, I would, I'd say, uh, pass on this game. Yeah. The only side is the Jets here. The Bucks are one of those teams. that have covered two straights are coming off of that emotional comeback win on a short week here. The Jets, I don't think there's really a difference, you know, maybe a slight difference between what Justin Fields can bring versus what Tyrod Taylor can bring.

You probably get a better passer with Taylor, but you get a better runner and with Fields. And I think just like a less weird game with Taylor, like he's just going to like do the right smart thing a lot, even if it's not particularly. exciting. But yeah, I just, I don't know, the bucks, the bucks fall into this fade, fade category, but I, you know, betting on Tyron Taylor on the road, I don't love it. But if we were short for, if we were short of fifth, I would push for this one, but I don't think we're going to be. Well, we won't be short of fifth because the next game, unfortunately is, oh, no. Okay. Well, we'll talk about it. It's, it's, dude, all right, I'll, I'll say the game, and then I'm going to get angry. The foul.

Falcons are at the Panthers. The Panthers are getting five and a half at home. I think we made a rule that we weren't betting any Falcons games. Like, I know where you want to bet against them here, but I really need a good reason to be involved in a banged up offensive line against the team that just had six sacks last week. Let's hear your case. Well, I mean, the thing, the problem is that the Panthers offensive line, right? They put two guys on injured reserve.

It's a problem. But they finally sort of came alive there in the fourth quarter. quarter against Arizona, but waiting for that offense to come alive. And it finally did over really, you know, one and a half games where it was dead. But it's a situation, right, Matt, where you have the Panthers team now O and two, they did cover against Arizona late, right? They were driving to win the game. It didn't happen for them.

And a Falcons team, we saw sign a football beat up Minnesota. And everyone's on the Falcons bandwack. And now you're kind of in a sleepy game. You're at Carolina, one o'clock. They didn't we have full. How much juice you're going to have in that game after that big winning against Minnesota. It's just a good spot to back the underdog here. But the offense line issues for the Panthers really worry me, but it's sort of the formula,

right? Divisional dog, getting five and a half, man. O. And two team, right? You go to O and three. That's sort of the end of your season right there. I mean, we'll see a lot of fight from Carolina. We saw a lot of fight the end of the last game, which has been excited for what they can do in week three. But you're right about the Falcons. We don't bet Falcons games. I mean, the thing that caught my attention here was the AJ Terrell injury, the best corner in Atlanta is going to miss this game and probably a few more. So in theory, it should be a little easier for maybe a Tett McMillan,

who's a plus 180 anytime touchdown score to maybe get loose. But the other thing about the Panthers, man, is like they suck at run defense. And the Falcons, I felt like they handed the ball off on 70% of their plays last week. They're like the only team doing that. So this could be one of those games where they just kind of make it boring and ball control at all game. If you're dying for it, I'll hear you. I'm not, but I mean, I just don't know.

I just don't know if we're going to get like five. That's why it's a maybe for me. Yeah. All right. Well, here come a few more duds. But we do. There are a few I genuinely really like. We're getting there.

This has to be discussed. This is an even worse game between another South division. The Colts are at Tennessee. Everyone loves the Colts. They are four and a half point road favorites at Tennessee. Oh, geez. I think, how about we make a deal? If we bet the Titans this week and they lose,

we're never betting on them again. Until they change their coach, you have to take them here. The Colts obviously had that very goofy win last week. This is one of those where they're 2-0, they're facing a team that is in their division. Home teams, 2-0 against the spread, as favorites in week three,

cover 35% of the time. this is just a this is just a spot like I think the Titans looked a little bit better they're obviously like they were able to move the ball a little bit last week

they just they are just a really weird team with a really bad coach but you do have to take them here I think if well certainly if you're taking a side in this one I think it's a must

I think you should have to put it down as a yes and deal with the consequences afterwards Matt but like the Colts again like Daniel Jones has played well but we know he's not this good right we know that we've seen him play enough we talked about early in season Shane's thing we get the most at him now they're on the road they're getting praised

two and over the first time since 2009 they won a game by the way if the Broncos don't get that leverage calling them are they four and a half point favorites on the road no chance yep I agree so you get a better number this was three and a half two I think I've pushed up to four and a half. So I'm good with Tennessee plus four. I'm going to watch the game at all, but I'm fine with that. I got Cam Ward, you know, trying to make plays there. I'm, he's fun. I'm okay. I can live with this. Here's, here's, since I have my dorky glasses on, here's some more dorky stats for you. Daniel Jones, nine and three since 2020, indoors against the spread. Three and eleven outdoors. Interesting. Second worst,

only to Will Levis. Titans haven't covered a home game in nine tries. If they get to 10, they will tie the longest in 12 years with themselves. Interesting. The Titans of 2013. Underdogs in the AFC South, 11 and 1 against the spread in the last year. So all the trends say, we got to take the Titans here. I just, I hate it. It's terrible and I'm not going to enjoy participating in this one,

but I think we have one of our five. One that I don't believe will be in our five. My team, the commanders, is laying three and a half to the Raiders. we do not know if Jaden's playing or not. I'm starting to think he's not because he didn't practice Mario, that took questions from the reporters today. This feels like a no bet to me unless you feel like the Raiders are a smart play. No, it's a no bet.

We're running out of games, though. Geez. We're not. We still have all the four clocks. I know. But games I like, no. The thing with the commander is like, they're offensively just haven't been as good yet, right?

Matt, just not as good yet. I don't know why. It just hasn't really clicked so far yet. And the Raiders came back to Earth, week two. They didn't look as good. I would lean commanders here, but we don't know Jane Daniels is going to play. So you can't make a bet on this game at all. Yeah, totally.

I think their offense, I think last week was really bad. It was a bit of a schedule loss like we maybe expected. Obviously, Jayon getting hurt is the worst thing that can happen to this team. But last year, weeks one and two, they lost to the bucks and they had that weird game where they had seven field goals against the Giants. And Terry McClare did nothing for two weeks. And then he took off and had a thousand yards. So I have a feeling they'll turn it around.

But it depends on if Jaden's healthy. If he's not healthy, then we're talking about it, a totally different outcome here. Yeah. But, you know, west to east, short week for the Raiders. I did like this spot originally for Washington, but not anymore. No.

How about this one, Jeff? This is a true coin flip, in my opinion. The Steelers are laying a point in a half. half at New England's man what a weird game this is we're going to learn something from this game right well so jeez been on New England last week was I got home with that was my best bet of the week but yikes that was rough to watch the penalties and just the undisciplined nature of of their team but to me this is the this is the side man this game um the the the the the the Pittsburgh's of the defense has been atrocious um they they allowed uh what is it here

I'm pulling up right now. They allowed 117 yards rushing, but four yards to carry to Seattle. They allowed Darnel to pass for nearly 300 yards on them. They were just blown off the line scrimmers the entire game. The Jets ran the ball as much as they want against Pittsburgh as well. They scored 32 points. They've got 31 and 32 now in two games. They're not hitting the quarterback as much.

The Jets had 400 yards in offense, and they rushed for 182. Part that obviously is the quarterback being able to rush there, but they just, they haven't looked good in the trenches, man. The Patriots ran the ball really well against Miami, who also sucks, by the way, on defense. But I would be happy taking New England here. Back home, the Steelers just, I don't think are very good. I trust the Patriots team, it's a little bit.

The rest of the pass are much better against Miami. Gonzalez may not be back, but Tomlin is a road favorite dude. He's like one of our favorite spots to wager on, to wager against him, I should say. Yeah, and Rabel is a home dog. he has a winning record straight up. He did in Tennessee 13 and 8 straight up as an underdog. So yeah, I mean, the Patriots should be able to run the ball.

They got totally gashed the last couple weeks of Steelers. I think this would be one where it's like, well, you know, maybe. I think they're probably the right side. The only thing that's scary is the dealers haven't covered yet. So everyone's down on them. But that could just be, they could be like, was it Dallas last? year, obviously the Titans are terrible, but there was like one or two teams last year that just never sort of caught up to the market. And it could be Pittsburgh. The Patriots have been, have been very good against the run. So they should be able to, you know, take away a lot of what Steelers want to do on offense. You know that the leading receiver for the Steelers right now is Jaylon Warren through two weeks. It's kind of strange. Only not great. Yeah. So I think we might just be early on the Steelers.

we predicted, right, that they were going to miss the playoffs this year, that they were actually going to to go under their eight and a half. So if they're going to do that, the Patriots need to win this week. They absolutely do, yeah. Yeah.

So let's consider this one. Yeah. Okay. So we have a couple of maybes here. Moving on to the Battle of the backups, V Browning, Vikings Ling, three. We can't have a play on this game, right?

no it would be the bangles plus three or nothing but we're staying away from this one i think yeah i'm just i'm not i we're not betting on uh jake browning or that is that is illegal that has been banned so we can't bet on him at all yeah i said so we might even bleep out his name um my favorite game of the week right here texans at jaguars uh the jaguars are one and a half point favorites may i Yeah, please. I got nothing for this one. Go ahead. Houston.

Okay, so Houston, first of all, they've looked shaky. We're catching them in a moment where everyone's out on them. Jacksonville, as a reminder, Smoke the Panthers in week one, congratulations, and then lost a game where Jake Browning threw three picks. No clue why they're favored. Stroud, 11 and 7 against the spread as an underdog.

7.13 is a favorite. Trevor Lawrence, 0.3 against the spread versus the Texans, is a short favorite. He's three and nine all time is a favorite of two points or less. All the trends back us. But like, can we just, let's take all that out of it.

Let's take all the fancy words out. Are the Texans not just better than the Jaguars? The Jaguar's sick, man. Like, what we're really afraid of Travis E.T.N. getting loose here. Like Brian Thomas Jr. is either injured or not being used properly or both.

I'm just really not afraid of Trevor Lawrence. And we're getting points. If this was, if the Texans were short favorite, I'd still think I'd still like them, but we're getting a good number here. This is my favorite elite. Yeah, I think, well, Houston, to your point, is better now. There are some things that they've got to clean up, Matt.

Like, they're just, their past actions are problems still. Their defense looked good the other night, but just offensively, it's just not like there yet. But what the Bengals did with Jake Browning, with the three interceptions, and they still scored points, still move the ball at well. And then the pass interference really hurt them because that was not a pass interference, in my opinion, but that happens, right? Yep. But the Houston, Texas should be able to move.

move the ball. And it's giving you your point. I get, we get really a coach that's competent to me. I'm not saying Liam Cohen's not. I actually love the decision that Liam Cohen made to go for and fourth down. That was absolutely the right decision there. It didn't work out,

but that was the right decision. And I like the huge coaching staff. I like their quarterback. I like their defense. I get better up front, but are the Jaguars the team take advantage of that? I'm not quite sure, Matt. So I'm glad to put on DJ Strout.

We got like Cam Ward and Bryce Young and Drake May so far. So yeah. Give me, give me a CJ Stroud. I'll take it. The Texans also haven't covered yet. and their own too. Like this is,

their season is on the line here. And absolutely. I think we have, we just, I do think that they're going to turn it around. And like they lost to the Rams and Bucks. Like those are the teams the Texans last year would have lost to. Yeah.

So I have no issue. I can't believe this line. Before we get to the afternoon games, we'll take a pause here. Video audience. Stay tuned. Audio on. We'll be back just a second.

All right, Matt. Four o'clock. We actually have a lot of four o'clock games this week. Normally it's like a handful. but we've got a couple more of the handful. Let's start out with the game in Seattle here between the Saints and the Seahawks. St. Seahawks.

Seahawks by seven. I'm not thoroughly impressed with the Seahawks. I feel like everyone else is. It could be that I'm not super into the Steelers who they mauled last week. So I would say the Saints is the side here, but like God help us if we take Spencer Rattler on the road. Where do you stand on this one? Well, I was looking at our list right now.

teams we have. Still some good games left. I know. Yeah, I don't want no part of this. I was not, we were both not high in Seattle. I don't know what they've done to be. They lost a close game of Niders and how when they didn't score and they beat a bad Cedars team.

Like, I don't really know. The Saints though, Matt, are really, like, they're bad, dude. Like, I know that they were driving to go ahead in the Niners. It wasn't really close. They never really moved the ball. They got sacked immediately. I'm not laying, I'm not laying seven on Seattle. I'm not taking seven with

Spencer Rattler. And I saw people this week talk, oh, Spencer Rattler, man, he kind of has like a little bit, no, he doesn't. Come on, stop. He doesn't have any juice. So it would be a no for me, dog. The only case to make is the week three thing, which is, you know, the Saints still

recovered. This would be the spot against the team where we think is a bit overvalued. But I just have no interest. No, not either. Yeah, okay. But good luck to the Saints. If this gets the seven and a half, I would be pretty interested. But with that, it's not reality.

I mentioned the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the Jackson. Is I don't still on TV? Do you know where? Sorry. What? I said there's no for me dog. That's where Randy Jackson from, from idol. Yeah.

He's, you say like, just so, I just saw, because I saw the me with dancing with the stars is still on, I guess. I don't know. That's back. Talk about it. So I was like, yep. It's back. Wife's locked in, brother.

Oh, it is seven and a half. The Saints. It just moved since we started recording this. Wait, you're wife just doing seven and a half stars? Yes. Oh, yeah. No. No.

So do you watch it too? How do I answer that question? Am I occasionally in the room while it happens at times, at times? So granted, you know, I control football four nights a week. So, you know, there's not a lot of argument I can make there. My wife does this thing where she, so she watches this show that she bought on Amazon, who knows what she did. And so we're laying in bed at night and she's watching it. I'm always watching football on my iPad.

I'm doing something that's not related to the show. And then she'll be like, hey, what would they say? I'm like, I'm not watching the show. What happened? I go, I'm, do you see that I'm watching football? I'm not paying attention to the show. I've watched zero seconds of. And it's, it's a existence we live in.

We're like, she falls asleep 20 minutes later. And I just turn off and watch football the rest of the night. It's every single night. It's the same way, Matt. Yeah, it's like, you know, I don't say like, hey, did you see that, that pass pro there? You know, you should look up from your phone and talk to me about the way that Josh Allen adjusted the protection. What are we talking about?

The Saints are 7.5 point underdogs now, buddy. Can we have to put it as a baby? Hank watching Dancing with the Stars is surprising, too. Hank would like nothing more than for us to talk about his television viewing habits right now. I think we should either take seven and a half or move on. No, we're moving on to Chargers, Broncos. Let's go. Okay, Chargers laying two and a half to the Denver Broncos.

Are we doing? I mean, the play here, of course, would be Denver after they've had a shaky starts this season. I've tried to fade them as in every way possible. But the Chargers are flying pretty high. They finished their last game at 1 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday. I would think that this would be a bylaw in Denver, but man, it's not fun. Two and a half, though.

The odds makers will just give you some middle finger, right? Matt, couldn't get three. Got to go two and a half. It's not pretty. You get three. Now, see, DK doesn't offer that even number. We talked about this last week. You can't get like, you know, you can't get plus three minus 120,

which you can get, you know, this should be available, but they go by the half, they go by the half point, right? So we can't get the full. Can I give you a weird stat? This is also courtesy of our buddy Evan Abrams. Sean Payton in weeks one and two. He's played 36 games. He's covered 12 of them.

Interesting. Wow. And then week three, 12 and 5 against the spread. So there is clearly, you know, some of these teams where they sort of like stink in the for a few weeks or like last year's Saints looked amazing through two weeks and then fell apart. Like there is some sort of adjustment maybe that comes out for these first two weeks. I saw I saw a tweet today that they had the point spread last year.

for Eagles Saints week three. It takes a favor about like two and a half in that game, which is just mind blowing considering how the season ended. But that's how it was. We probably bet on the Saints. They probably 60 points the first two weeks last year. Yeah, Bill Simmons famously compared them to the 99 Rams through two weeks last year. Yeah.

So the chargers, the chargers that are at an all-time high, people like me have had to eat it on the Justin Herbert takes the last couple weeks. Denver, everyone is kind of off of them. it's i just wish we got the three but i i would not if we're needing a fifth i would not hate denver here it's the right play it absolutely is um open one and a half out of two and a half now uh ugly side um yeah i i i wouldn't i wouldn't i'd be open to it i'd be open to it okay more than the saints catch seven that's too god i don't even affordedly want to talk about this game but it's going to be so entertaining. The Cowboys

are now short road favorites at Chicago. Gross. One and a half is the number. I am like very confused about this game because everyone, the public and the sharps are all over the Cowboys. So much so that

this passed through the zero and the bear started as favorites. It's basically like, do you think that Caleb and Ben Johnson kind of turned it around against what appears to be like a college level defense when they really need to win. So today, Ben Johnson, the Bears Head Coach at the podium said, our practice habits are yet to reflect a championship caliber team.

We know that they're not championship in the team, but he's telling you that his team came in practice properly. I feel like I need to say that at the office. Like when we're having a pre-production meetings, like this does not reflect the caliber of a championship team. Like, let's just do better. I like that. You should clip that out. I told you, I think before my, my wife taxed me a year ago.

And she goes, hey, like, I was in a meeting and someone said, like, who has it better than us? I think it was like the saying. And they said it was like Bill Belichick. And I was like, Jim Harbaugh? Like you're quoting Jim Harbaugh. Your office goes, yeah, we have like this call once a week or once a month. and it always starts out with that. Who's it better than us? I was like, okay, cool. So Matt, every month they start a call with Jim Harbaugh,

motivational quotes. That's Jim Harbaugh, who said that for years. Who has it better than us? Nobody. So that's my, you can bring that, to bring that quote now to your office,

okay, the Ben Johnson quotes. I, you know, I kind of like that one. But I really like what Ben Johnson said. I think I saw this, somebody said it online,

and Ben Johnson is like a very scripted. Like I have the keys. Just follow the roadmap. Just do it this way. Like Jared Goff really thrives in that. And Caleb is this like let me just run around and make some stuff happen. Like they're such a stylistic mismatch. But but Caleb Williams can't you can't play quarterback like that.

I know that we love that to watch that as fans like that sort of red zone highlight. like I almost kind of like an NBA league pass like type of player where like you want to put an NBA league pass to watch that guy score 30 points and have two assist. Yeah. Like, but that's not actually winning basketball. Right.

Winning football from that position is in the pocket. Now, of course, you have to leave the pocket to make plays at times. But he looked a little bit better in week two. We'll give him credit on that. But there's still a lot missing in that. And look, I've been very clear about this. It takes time, man.

It takes two months. We might not know for two months how good kids can be in this offense. But Dallas plays at zero. Zero defense. They have a lot of 37 points. They made Russell Wilson look like he was in 2015 Russell Wilson. He threw for 450 yards.

40-50 yards. Yeah. And the Cowboys have a lot of 37 points and then they allowed 24 the Eagles before that game grind into a halt. Like the total is 15 and a half. You know the high that it is for an NFL game? 15. That's crazy.

That's 30-21 is a high-scoring NFL game. Like that's a good amount of points NFL game. They're telling you right now, obviously, that's the spread is. and make it 30, you know, 30, you know, that's what they expect this game to be.

And, you know, it's more like they expected to be, you know, 26, 27, 25, to be honest, but whatever,

did it, no one wrote, right? Like, it, but still, like, the point of this is that,

they have a lot of points in this game. And I kind of like the dog when, when, spend a lot of points, Matt, but I don't really feel great about this one. Yeah. So,

oh, two teams, the bears are against the spread and straight up, but against the spread, they cover a little over half the time in week three. I just think the bears, I thought the bears were going to be good. I appear to be wrong.

The thing that is possibly interesting is that, you know, dogs, when dogs, when the line crosses zero, dogs do cover 56% of the time when that happens. So look, the sharp, part play is the bears it's contrarian we're getting a good number um but i just i don't know if i have the stomach for it but i think we have to at least like scratching off the list i guess right like we have this will be our seventh maybe i think if i'm keeping track correctly um maybe yeah maybe or seventh maybe i don't i don't if we're going to have one in the next game but uh we'll see yeah we have a lot of

maybe we have two tennessee houston or in in my opinion we have then we have just a bunch of babies after that. Yeah. Cardinals of 49ers, 49ers, one and a half point favorites. It's actually two and a half now. Two and a half. Two and a half.

Yeah. So I know a group sent out Niners money line like an hour ago. So that's why the numbers moved a little bit here. Interesting. Kyle Shanahan, weirdly, he's a worst record against any opponent

is the Cardinals. He's in these two, five, and one against the spread of home against the Cardinals. They, They, there's a water bottle under me. It's not, it's not mine. I keep hitting it. I keep crunching. I feel like I'm going to break it under this in the studio here.

They can't stop Cala Murray running the football. That's been their problem over the years. They can't stop them. He just runs a football at will against them. But yeah, I don't, I turn out to bet on Cardinals games. It's like the Falcons. Who knows? And Mack Jones, you know, dude, the glazing of Mac Jones this week.

Like, people are like, see, they should have drafted them. It's crazy. Brock Purdy stinks now. Like, it's all a system thing. I'm like, well, we thought that anyways a little bit, but you played one game against the worst team in the NFL. Like, can we slow down a little bit here, please? Maybe we take the Cardinals.

I mean, honestly, I'm with you. I can't believe that Mack Jones, like everyone is just saying, well, the 49ers, there's no difference. It's like, I'm sorry. Clearly there is. They just paid Brock Purdy, you know, a ridiculous contract. And there's still this really banged up team.

the Cardinals like the Cardinals are the most unfun two and O team ever but the 49ers like are not good maybe this is a side here I didn't consider well here we go as as we are talking about this this one of the number moved ready Matt Adam Schaefter Brock Purdy quote has a chance to play Sunday her head coach Kyle Shanhan has a chance to play interesting So I guess we have to lay off of this then, but or we're getting a really good number if Mack Jones plays. That's so interesting. Yeah. All right.

Well, clearly as we record this, it's hard to. He's a limited practice today. And I'm Brock Purdy. Huh. That could be like, hey, I might need to get out on the field because this, this guy looks pretty good. I don't know. He's also got a shoulder injury. He's going to toe and shoulder injury.

He cares. Dude, he made so much money. He doesn't care what Mac Jones does. Yeah, fair enough. I wish I could say the same about myself. I care deeply about what Mack Jones does this week. Sunday night football, weirdest line of the week. The chiefs are laying six to the Giants who remain the Sharp team.

They're this year's Browns from last year. Every week, all the Sharps are going to love the Giants. I really wish this was five and a half because I think I'd be on Kansas City, but I don't see a world where we can have a side of this. Well, Giants on the side, Matt. I don't really think it's that complicated here if you're taking a side of this. Like, first of all, what are the chiefs shown to be six point road favorites against anyone so far this year? They lost to the Chargers.

They scored 21 points and they lost the Eagles and scored, what, 17 points? Yeah, I mean, I also dropped the pass. Sure. The Giants defense is good. They're not going to score in this game. The chiefs are not going to score in this game. The question is, can Russell Wilson get across 17 points? Is that the question?

Like, why is this line so high? I think that this is a, I think this is the books. They're looking for anyone to take the chiefs and they're not willing to lower it. That has to be what they're doing here. I think it's the other way around. I think they're begging people who are the giants. I'm curious what the splits look like. I'm going to look on the TK app as we talk.

But I just don't know anybody who trusts Kansas City to lay six who's actually like, like the public now is so sharp. I can't imagine that anyone in the last couple seasons thinks that that's what's going to happen here. my guess is that a lot of people in Kansas City. Wow, 73% on draft kings is on Kansas City. So maybe the play is the Giants. That's really surprising to me. I don't want to root. I made this point before.

I don't like taking the teams I root for their opponent plus points. I just don't like that. I don't want to root for my team to only win by a certain amount of points, Matt. I think that's a weird rooting experience. Okay, passing, but to me it would be the Giants. The under in this game, 45 and a half, half is really enticing to me. The Giants are not going to play as well as well as well as the Chiefs defense last week.

The Chiefs defense has been fine. They stopped the run really well. The Giants only have Malik neighbors. They don't have a ton of weapons, right? Like the Chiefs are shut down. The Chiefs are going to play good defense in this game. The question is, can the Chiefs offensively handle the Giants defense? If they can do that and they're more efficient offensively, then yeah, 2717 is certainly

possible, right? Matt, in this game, maybe 2417, 2414. And then when it comes to, I think the under, though, is absolutely playing this game 45 and a half right now. Yeah, that's a good play. So I just have a feeling. This is that week three. Something weird always happens.

One of these teams, either the chiefs, the bills, the Packers, the bucks, the Colts, I don't even know if they've sort of belong there. But one of these teams is going to lose. And it's like somebody's going to kill everyone in Survivor. It's like we're too far into the season for that not to happen. We are. That's truly true. Yeah.

It feels for some reason this chiefs thing, I don't, like, I want to just put it all on the chiefs and survivor, but I just have a weird feeling, don't you? Like, I, I just, something's up here. And the Giants, like, they are frisky and they're desperate also. Like, they, you know, they just lost two divisional games. Is there a world where the chiefs could actually drop this one? Yeah, why not? I don't know why they, they, there's absolutely a world. I'm not sure they do do that, but they're better.

And they're back against the walls, absolutely true here, Matt. Like they got to win this game. So, yeah, they could, they could absolutely drop the game. Yes, they could. I don't think they're going to, but they absolutely could drop the game. Yeah, but I just told me I want to wager on it, though. It's a really interesting moment for the Chiefs. Okay, we're passing on that one.

Monday night will be fireworks, the Lions at the Ravens. This opened a two and a half and has gotten bet up to four and a half for Baltimore. Why is that? Because everyone loves balls more, man. Like, they're awesome. I think people think the lions, you know, putting 50 up on the bears doesn't really count. But I don't know.

Where are you? I would probably just stay away from this one. Like, what do I just, I don't feel great about it. It makes, to me, it never doesn't make sense. That's partly why I'm at. I don't understand why this number is so big. yeah this would be a lion's play I just I don't know

I don't feel super strongly about it yeah I don't know I don't really I just don't have an opinion here really I wish I had something to say but yeah I guess we should just pass it but now that we're talking about it it's like yeah why is that it feels like a pointer too too high but you know Lamar is a favorite's excellent

at home is excellent you know, Lions coming off of a game where they showed out it's usually a bad time to bet on them. Yeah, it's weird, right? Yeah, it's strange. All right. Well, ready, buddy, got my notebook here.

Yeah, let's run through. We have a couple, we have some really interesting maybes here. Okay. So Tennessee's a yes. Houston's a yes, right? We agree on those two? Yes.

Let's go. AFC South. We're locked in. Philly, Carolina, New England, Denver, Chicago, Arizona, the Giants. The Giants are gone. Goodbye.

Arizona is gone, right? Because we don't know about that party, right? The quarterback steel is. I like New England, though. Don't think it's Pittsburgh or you just. Yeah, we can put, let's put that at the top of the list here. Okay. All right.

So, Denver is the right play. today this week, isn't it? Yeah. I think I had Chicago on my maybe list. I think we can dump them. Oh, is it something with the Chargers?

That would charge us to you? Okay, so dump Chicago? I think so, right? Yeah, so that means we basically only have Denver. We have two spots left for Philly, Carolina, Denver. And we're ruling, the Saints catching the seven and a half against Seattle.

You want to rule them out? Yes, please. Okay. I did my best. All the, you know what let's put let's put Denver in there okay so Carolina to me feels like the odd team out because of their offensive line to put Philly yeah right okay yeah that that's our last but you liked Carolina coming in I I don't know let's let's look in the mirror here and say we're

betting against Daniel Jones blank four and a half I like that Houston with their season on the line love that Tomlin is a road favorite Drake May against the Steelers, okay. Yeah, I feel like, yeah, I think we can, I'm good with either Philly or Carolina. I feel like we have enough like sound logic that we need to throw a dart. If I told you that Carolina got sacked seven times and lost 24 to 6, you'd be like, well, of course they did.

Yes, yes. As a matter of fact, that is exactly what I would say. Let's take the champ. And we're basically just the Rams, the Rage on the Phillies basically a, fate of everyone on the Rams this week. It's basically what it is, right? Like, we're just everyone's sharps and squares are on the Rams this week. They almost weren't in the playoffs last year.

They did, but last year was last year. It's not this year, right? Yeah, it was a snowy game. An uglyish game. All right, Tennessee plus four and a half, Houston plus one and a half, New England plus one and a half, Denver plus two and a half, Philly minus three and a half. That's pretty good. That's a pretty good.

It's pretty good. The NFL man, Jesus Christ. just weird weird truth here the Rams have won I think it's nine of their last 10 or I'm sorry the Eagles have won nine of their last 10 I think against the Rams

they won three out of four one like 19 last 20 games I think yeah they won 10 out of 12 against and 10 out of 11 against the against the ramps sometimes those teams you know there's just like a weird since you know back when they were in St. Louis Okay, we've made our picks.

Why don't we move to college here? Let's take one short, one more break, Matt. So stay tuned for college. We'll talk about that. I got, I like six things I want to talk about, six games. We'll go pretty quickly here. Be back in a second video. Stay tuned.

All right, Matt, we're back. College football, here we go. You ready? Rapid Fire. Let's fly. Start Friday night. I like Rutgers. plus three at home against Iowa.

Iowa, their quarterback stinks. Lack of a better term, Matt. Their offense is atrocious, and they're on the road. And I don't like that combination. Rutgers, offensively, is much better this year. They have a count, I can't pronounce his name, Kalamanakis. Sorry, troll me on Twitter, whatever, man.

If you do that, then you come on our show. He's much better this year. He's a year two of this offense. They want to throw the ball deep. They're getting the ball down to feel a little bit more. Matt, right now for Iowa, they're adjusted, right here. Well, yeah, their air yards per attempt is like 6.1. Not great.

Not great. That's not great. On the road, Rutgers defense is struggling a little bit so far, but I like Rutgers to cover this game Friday night. Okay, here's one I need your opinion on because it involves your Maryland Terrapins. Oh. This game started like open seven and a half. they're playing Wisconsin, just got crushed by Alabama.

Wisconsin quarterback might be back, but here, here's the play for me in this one. So one spot, I think that's important to play in college football. And you're right. I'm right most of the time. I'm wrong sometimes. Well, you know, the Cal's quarterback, J.K.S., like wrong about him in this game. But I bet against true freshman Bryce Underwood, right?

When he went, Michigan quarterback went to Oklahoma. This is exactly the spot. Malik Washington is a true freshman quarterback from Maryland doing a great job, but they played three home games against Patsies, Matt. They're on the road at Wisconsin, after Wisconsin got embarrassed by Alabama. There's number one from seven and a half to ten. It's ten right now. I like Wisconsin to cover this game.

I mean, look, I'm not going to tell you that Maryland's going to lose a game on this air. But I will say it makes sense. Maryland, I think every year has this sort of similar path where they start pretty hot. And then it's like, whoa, could this be? Could we be back? and then we play a real team and get pummeled. But I don't know, man. Kid looks pretty good.

But I get, I'm picking up what you're putting down. Okay. Like Notre Dame to cover 24 and a half against Purdue, they're obviously 0 and 2, but they played two good teams. Purdue's not good. It's sort of like a get right game for them. And they just like take out all their anger on Purdue. I'll go faster here, Matt.

Indiana right now, host Illinois. they're out to six point favorite just four and a half 24 hours ago i can't give you a six when i got four and a half but i like indiana here minus minus four and a half minus five um might come back down at some point uh but worth paying attention to there uh lastly current off the wall game but arkansas is at memphis you heard that right Arkansas SEC team at memphis group of five team um makes no sense whether at memphis i don't know why the seven point favorites Arkansas went to Ole Miss last week. They lost by six.

They host Notre Dame next week. So it's a sandwich situation. You go to Memphis. Again, like YU and Memphis doesn't make any sense. It'd be Memphis Super Bowl. Their coach could use this game for his resume. So I like Memphis here catching seven points against Arkansas. So that's a college football before you there, Matt.

Anything else? It's a good deep dives, buddy. Thank you for good show this week. I also thank you for allowing us to take Jalen Hertz instead of Bryce Young feel great about our life choices. And it's good luck finding a good Indian place tonight. The thing about it's like that Indiana wager, man. It's hard because I haven't, I got four and a half,

but I have to give out like six tomorrow on some podcast. I don't like it. I don't like it. I don't have to give that to put it off the board now, I think. I think I'm going to lean into more how much I dislike. Like, I think it'd be funny if I sort of got agitated that you do other podcasts. Like, obviously you do other podcasts. But I think I'm going to have more fun with that and be just be angry and deny that they exist.

So I don't know why you would give out picks anywhere else. You should deny they exist. Yeah. You should absolutely do that. Just it's just me and you. All right, but anything, any last words? You sound like my college girlfriend. No, I'm good, buddy.

I'm not going to get my heart broken again. And it never happened. When's the last time you've been to Rita? Has it got to your son? No, Rita's. What's the ice cream place that emails? me nonstop now. Rory's. Rorys.

It's been a while. I'll send them your best. Good, good ice cream spot open in San Monica. I'll take you to another next time. All right, everyone. We'll be back on Tuesday. Stay tuned, by the way. If you're still listening now, you obviously like us. I have a special interview coming out. I believe we

determined it's coming out on Friday. So pay attention to that. It's going to be fun. And we'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. Take care everybody. Have a good weekend. See, buddy.