Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Can The Cowboys Win Without Micah Parsons Week 1 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

We're so back! The NFL season kicks off tonight when the Eagles host the Cowboys on TNF, which means it's time for Geoff and Matt to bring back the most entertaining series on the internet: Geoff's Best Bets. Do you like betting on superstars and big favorites? Then this series is NOT for you! Tune in to learn how to bet like an offensive lineman-- it's gritty, it's tough, you might have to root for Daniel Jones to be good at football, but you will profit! The boys go through every single game on the Week 1 slate to find their five favorite sides, and then Geoff sprikles in a few college plays he likes, because we love you. Be sure to follow the podcast on whatever listening platform you prefer to be notified whenever a new episode is released, subscribe to @FootballAmericaShow on YouTube to watch video episodes, and leave a rating, comment, or tweet @GeoffSchwartz to let him know what you think of the show! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I was hoping that this would push to a half point one way or the other because Justin Herbert is also an automatic take plus three and a half because he gets close in the fourth quarter and he can never win a game, but they cover. Every show, I just, I have to throw something in there. Your hatred of Justin Herbert is unmatched. No, my observations of Justin Herbert are crystal clear while the rest of the world is wrong. Hello, welcome Jeff Schwartz and Smarter than you. Jeff Schwartz is Marry you, presented by Draft Kings. Draft Kings, the Crown, is yours. And guys, we have done it.

It is time for our favorite episode of the year. Every week, really, honestly. Jeff Schwartz, Matt Ford, we are picking five NFL games against the spread. We do it each and every week. It is week one. It is here. Cowboys are today. Cowboys commanders today, obviously.

game Friday, game Sunday, two games Monday, Matt. And I've been waiting for this day for months and months and months. It has finally gotten here. I know you're excited like I am. What is the energy like in Matt Ford's brain right now as we approach one of our favorite shows to do all year? It is sizzling, Jeff. I can't believe we're here. It's such a long offseason, man.

I just feel like it gets longer every year. Maybe it's just when I look up and I'm like baseball, WNBA. And then all of a sudden it's August and you're like, ooh, there's some, there's some football on. Ooh, there's even some starters playing. And it's just, it percolates. And then it comes and you're like, my life is about to be so different for the next few months. Hopefully it'll be a profitable year.

You know, we're here with our partners at Metal Arc. You're there today and with draft kings. And I feel like the pressure is kind of on us, bud. Like we've had some years where, you know, it's gotten to week 13 and we've put up a couple of oh and fives. And this year we're not doing that. We're just, we're not doing that this year, Jeff. We're going to be a profitable show this year.

I'm making a statement to lead us off. So for those who look to play these or fade these or ever you want to do them, we have a pattern that we sort of go by, Matt, where week one, we do very well. Come out hot. Week two or three, we have an offer every single season because we either overreact to week one. We get off our ethos. We get off what we do. and then we about week 12

when we're like 17 under 500 we battle back to about 500 every year I think one year we were maybe three, four over 500 one year we're 200 under 500 we're about 500 we're about 500 we'll throw some props along your way those are not official plays but they're things that I like and I've wagered on

we'll give those to you via draft kings and we'll go through again we'll go through all the games some games we will spend more time than others there are games we're not going to like If you're new here, that's sorry the way it goes in a given week. One last thing to, Matt, before we get going here. Look, if you're here because you want to bet on favorites every week,

probably not your podcast. Be quite honestly, okay? The NFL last year was a favorites league. It's very rare that favorites, especially big favorites, road favorites, cover a lot of NFL games. Not college football. You don't get 73, 20 in the NFL in a non-conference game, right?

Even these eight and a half points spreads Thursday night, Denver and Tennessee, like it's the NFL, man. These games are within seven points, 70% of the games, right? Within seven points in the fourth quarter, Matt. It happens all the time. And so you try to take sort of the emotion

out of betting the favorites, and we look at Caturian plays, we look at underdogs, we look at home divisional dogs, all these things that traditionally have won over the, years. I'm Mike Tomlin as a homeowner dog and we're going to give it to you that way. So if you like a podcast to bet on the Cal, I mean, the Eagles this weekend and the Broncos, Matt,

and the same and excuse me the Cardinals, not for you. So we hope that if you're here, you enjoy our process because we like doing it. And again, these are, these are real wagers. We make these wagers with the help of draft Kings. We're thrilled to be doing them. To your point, Jeff. these are professional football games. So there are weeks where, you know, I think maybe this is how we start the show when we just get right to the Eagles and Cowboys. So the Eagles and Cowboys are playing tonight.

The line before the Micah Parsons trade was Eagles by 7, which already was pretty high and I was probably already going to push for us to take the Cowboys. And then Mike Parsons gets traded. It doesn't seem like Dallas is that upset about it, frankly. Right? Like it seems like the key decision makers all said yes to it. The locker room seems, you know, like it's a, these are professional organizations.

If they, sometimes they make mistakes. But, you know, I don't think this team is completely falling apart. But the line moved a point in half. So this is the reminder where it's like, hey, we might be betting on some really bad teams this week. We might be betting on teams that are going to get their asses kicked like probably the Cowboys will. But it's about covering the spread and it's about showing up. And you're going to have to, If you're going to, you know, trail us or fade us,

you're going to have to have the Dolphins Colts game on. I'm sorry. I'm sorry in advance. I don't want to watch it. I don't want to watch it. I don't even want to bet it. I know you're going to make me bet one side of it. I don't want to, but we're going to.

So, like, welcome to the show. We are going to. Please rate, review, subscribe. Why don't we talk about the Eagles Cowboys? They are, uh, that's an 820 kick for the defending champs. I think we got to do it, bud. No, we're not doing it. Come on.

Okay. I'll take it back. So here's a, look, we can put games down on a list, and then we finalize the five at the end. So I will put, I'm fine putting Dallas here plus eight and a half. But let me kind of explain to you why I think that it's probably not the best wager. Thank you to our show researcher, Bill Bonro, for this tweet. But it's very true, and it bears itself out when you watch them play, but just the numbers show it out. when Michael Parsons has played for the Cowboys,

okay, Matt, they're number one in the NFL and EPA. So number one in defense of efficiency. He doesn't play their 31st. There's just no replacing Michael Parsons defensively. And I don't know how that's going to affect them in this game. I also don't know emotionally if they're going to be up or down. When the Chargers traded Kalilomack back, what, 2017, 2018,

their season went right into the tank, right? Like think about the importance of a player like Kalilomack or Michael Parsons. you lose that guy, what is your team going to be heading into week one, heading into Philly? You get down 10-0, man. How are you coming back? How are you making stops on defense? You know, like, I just don't know they can't rush the pastor in this game. If you can't rush the pastor against Philly and you allow Jailnerch to have as much time as he wants,

or you allow Sequin Barkley to get off, like they're not going to be able to keep up offensive. I feel like Matt. So that's why, to me, it's a huge maybe. I get, we get the value of the eight and a half right now. but I do really think the Cowboys mentally and just ability to play out Parsons will be tested against the Eagles team. The Eagles return everyone in offense

but one player. They've not have a new O.C., I get that, but they've actually played well last year, a couple years ago, in week ones with new OCs. God, I would play some on defense. We know edge rusher primarily. And I just don't like to make over this game for the Cowboys. So do you think that Micah Parsons was worth almost two points?

Because that's what Vegas is saying, is you got this line was seven and then all of a sudden it's it's eight and a half and they're dying for cowboys money i i just i don't see it man like i i hear you and obviously like football perspective you're right but we're talking about one player that's not a quarterback that moved the line a point and a half and in week one underdogs that are six plus point dogs cover 64% of the time that's even better when it's in the division and dack like he's very rarely a seven plus point dog, he's four and one in that spot. And I think you're right.

Like obviously Parsons is going to, it's, it's going to have an impact. Yeah. But, DAC, like, we're forgetting what this Dallas team actually can be when DAC is healthy. Correct.

And we assume that that's true. They have a great passing game. The Eagles only weak spot would be their secondary, right? So you would think a bunch of new guys, maybe the injuries. Maybe the edge rusher, is it. Yeah.

Edge rusher maybe a little bit, yeah. Which also is probably beneficial to Dallas. Like, it's a pretty high point toll. at 47 and a half. I have a feeling, you know, Dallas probably won't mind if this turns into a bit of a shootout.

It's over a touchdown. Everyone's been clowned on Dallas for the last week. I think this is a really, really nice by-low spot for them. And, you know, I don't know. I just think the point and a half move with Parsons is just way too high. It's on the maybe list already

because we know all the maybes in here. The last thing I'll say about this game, I like Dak Prescott over two-and-off rush attempts in this game at. You get plus money in drafts right now for that wager. That's fun. He does not run the ball a ton, like three carries a game-ish. Last year didn't play the Eagles, but in 20-23, he rushed the ball three times and six times against Philly, and then he played him one to 2020-22 and rush the ball nine times against Philly.

I think with the Philly pass rush and the need to get some yards at times, DAC will be willing to run the ball a little bit more. I do think that in week one, it is helpful to run the ball with a quarterback because the Eagles have not had time of repair. I don't know what they're getting, right? You could sneak third down, fourth down, like a quarterback run, RPO, things like that,

and Eagles can just not be ready for it, Matt. So it's plus 130 run right now on the Draft King's app. I have played that over, Dak, Prescott, over two and a half rush attempts. That's a fun one. I think also we're going to see, I think, I don't think people, are really talking about the fact that AJ Brown

and Devante Smith are both coming into this season a little bit banged up. So it might be a good spot to maybe take a Dallas Goddard prop. Barclay to go over 100 rushing yards is plus 117, which is kind of fun. And then let me see if we can find a good guy or other wageer I like

a lot. It's so high right now. But the Barclay longest rush is 20 and a half. That typically is like 17 and a half in like a good year for him. But 20 and a half is a lot. That's obviously, that's a big breakaway run. I would even be comfortable with, I don't even know if they have like fourth quarter rushing yards for Sequin.

They don't think they project that out that early in the week, but that's something to look for here. All right, Matt. So we have the Cowboys as a maybe. We have 15 games left to go. So we got, let's, uh, you've been here for 45 minutes. Yeah. Let's move to, uh, to game two where I like something breaks one of my rules, but so be it.

Here we go. Oh, and one. The Chiefs and the Chargers are playing in Brazil. The Chiefs are laying three points. Every time these two teams play, it's a two-point game. So I guess we're going to hope that the Chiefs are covering the three, huh? We are going to hope that. I don't know, Matt.

I mean, Chiefs are just good this season. And I think they have a chip on their shoulder. I mean, it's going to show in week one. I know Rishi Rice is not playing. I get that. But Travis Kelsey has tormented the Chargers over the year. years. And I think we're going to just see a different chiefs team this year, especially in

week one. They've heard everything about them all off season. There's list coming out now. I mean, Joe Montana, for heaven's sake, put out a list, Matt, saying what quarterbacks would he build around? And he didn't include Patrick Mahomes as top four, which is like, like, he's slights for no reason whatsoever. You know, Colin Cowher talking about him and we love Colin, but like he's kind of made because

of Andy Reed, like stuff like that. Mahomes loves that stuff, right? They hear those things, Matt. and they have a chance in week one to give it to the Chargers. This is a neutral site game. So the three is basically right. Like the Home Foot Advantage,

just telling you that the Chiefs are neutral field, three points better. Maybe it's two points on neutral field in America. I don't know. But all I can't see is start fast in this game. You're right. The Chargers treat this game like the Super Bowl every single season and they play this game super close over the years.

But three and a half would have been two and a half would have been great. I think at three and a half, even I might take San Diego. take Los Angeles here, Matt. But I'll like to choose minus three in this game. I don't love it. I mean, the rule of thumb is you want to take Mahomes laying under three.

That's just sort of an automatic take. I was hoping that this would push to a half point one way or the other because Justin Herbert is also an automatic take plus three and a half because he gets close in the fourth quarter and he can never win a game, but they cover. Every show, I just, I have to throw something in. there just to irritate Justin Herbert is unmatched no my observations of Justin Herbert are crystal clear while the rest of the world is wrong our boss 64% against the spread in his career uh it's it worries me Jeff but you know you could you could throw out the like Andy Reid amazing off a break

whether that's a buy or week one um I don't feel strongly about this one but uh the show is not called Matt Ford is smarter than you it is called Jeff Fortz is so I'm not going to put up We try to agree on the five. But yeah. We try to agree on the five. We try to agree on the five. And we have two. And it's not even Sunday.

Is I like like taking, looking at like random touchdown props for them. Like Juju Smith scoring a touchdown at plus four, 75. Because the Chiefs throw the ball to everyone, Matt. Like first touchdown score for Juju is 25 to one. It's not out of the round me scores the first touchdown for them. Those are sometimes the way to play some of these Chiefs games. How about? Maybe we look at a, yeah.

Maybe we look at a little Travis Kelsey touchdown. I thought about that. Maybe that's just what we do here. Yeah. Like, you know, we've got, it's such a big spot. Like, first touchdown is plus 950. ATD is plus 165. Why don't we throw in a plus 165 anytime for Trave?

I just have a feeling like big spot Friday night. Kelsey, anytime TD, okay. Kelsey, anytime TD, just go into the, I, so I bet the Travis Kelsey over receiving. I've also bet personally myself over four. four and a half touchdowns. He had three last year, I think. But again, I think to Kelsey,

I think we know he's going to be better this year, right? The weight loss thing, the recommitting yourself in this final year, what appears to be his final season, newly engaged man as well, got a little motivation. There's no motivation whatsoever because you're engaged. But we can use that to our advantage,

maybe he's gamblers, right? There's going to be a lot of cameras at that wedding. You know, he might want to look good. He might want to. That might be on his radar. Do you think I keep going back, that you think it's going to be one of those weddings that, I think it's going to be like super private,

like 15 people are going to be there, like super small wedding is my guess. I think that's probably smart because it's, there's a lot of people who could, who could say they're getting an invitation to that. You know, or they,

or they, or they, they're like, everyone, if you're famous, you're invited, you know, then maybe,

maybe you're going. That what Bezos did? When he, like, took over Venice and like, it's like, why is he really friends with Leonardo or DiCaprio? Like,

when did that friendship? Like, what do they have in common? They're both guys who are running. I just curious that my brother gets the invite. If Mitch gets the invite, I'm just curious. They're friends.

The draft gets that line on that? What's the, what's the yes-no split there? I don't know, but I think no would be pretty high. All right, Matthew. Let's move on to your favorite team in the world. Yes.

The commandantes. Yes, facing your former team, the New York Giants. The commanders, this one's moved around. It's down to six. It was down to five and a half briefly. I don't know, man. I have some thoughts on this game, as you can imagine.

Okay. But let's hear what you think. Either, okay, so either I and you are the jackasses that believe Washington is going to be better this season and the Giants are going to be worse. Or we're just wrong and everyone else is right. Like that's what this game comes down to, right, Matt, where like everyone's, there seems to be this push. The last couple weeks the Giants are better than we think. And the commanders, and I never. about it all year, all offseason,

are not going to be as good as we think, right? Because Jane Down is going to have a slump because Strout has a slump. I don't know why those pair, Matt. I don't understand why Washington will have a slump offensively because their defense played bad quarterbacks last season. Daniels is going to stink. I don't get that. I don't get the logic behind that.

All we've heard all off-season is that the commanders won't be the same. Okay, they might not be the same. They're not going to be much worse. Look at their team. Look at the track record of the players on their team. And I think Daniels is that good of a player. we're not going to see a slump. Dan Quinn, by the way, has been a Super Bowl,

not champion, his team went to Super Bowl, right? He coached the Super Bowl. In Dallas, his defense were great in Dallas. There was a time, like Atlanta, it dropped off eventually, but early on it was good. I don't see the commander is taking a drop, and as far as the Giants, yes, their defense is really good. Checkmark, right?

But offensively, Andrew Thomas, as of now, probably not playing, right? Matt, I think I'm right on that. Russell Wilson, on the road. Russell Wilson's going to throw the ball deep once and throw the ball 37 times within seven yards of the line of scrimmage. I just don't buy the Giants in this spot. And I get it. Sharp money's pushed the Giants.

People out on the commanders, Matt. So we're either going to be really right about Washington or we're not. I would be okay taking Washington minus six. We will get a better number, I think, in this spot. But we're basically fading the sharp, but I don't really love. I couldn't agree more with literally everything you said. and looks like Thomas is practicing improving

but it's not looking like it doesn't feel great as of right as we record this on on Wednesday afternoon yeah yeah yeah he's me Friday will be the Friday will be the tell on him but I think that there's some worry that

he might not be ready to go quite yet it's Wednesday so he was on the field today he was looking like he was in pads so that's a good, a good start for that. But we don't quite know yet. And even if he does play, he's coming off a list rank. It's his first, it would be his first 11-11 reps since last October. Yeah.

Yeah. So I agree. Traditionally in this spot, this is a good stat. Russell Wilson, week one, two, six and one against the spread in week one. I agree that I think this is going to move to five and a half. It's touched it. Oh, interesting. Yeah, it's touched it and, you know, I think it might head back there because of, you know, you're right.

All the sharps have come in. The only, from a football standpoint, like, you can probably explain this a little better than I can. But the strength of the Giants whole team, they have one elite thing, and that's their pass rush. And if there's one quarterback or one type of quarterback you're going to go against where that can be nullified with, a few different things, including like a really up-tempo, no-substitution kind of strategy that the commanders love.

A quick pass behind the line of scrimmage, like yards after the catch game where like the Blitz doesn't really matter. It's like Washington's never in third and ten. And that's where the Giants want to put you and then keep the game kind of close and then a couple bombs to neighbors and that's the script.

Like I just don't think it's a, I don't think it's a good matchup for the Giants. And I think the commanders like, If there's one sort of team that can figure out a way to scheme around a really good pass rush, it's probably this offense, isn't it? It is. And I do wonder as well, like, Jay Daniels running right now is 43 and a half. Against that pass rush, do you think he will have to run the ball a little bit more?

Trying to find a way to move him out of the pocket. Just get him to scramble. That to me is a question in this game. Maybe rush attempts is the way to go for Danes. If we're looking for a prop in this one, the rush attempts is at 8.5. the average 9.2 last season draft games. I love how they have the season average

like right next to the prop. You can see that very well. That's very clear. But I'm with you, Matt. As far as this game or is Washington minus six a maybe for you? It's a maybe. I'm scared,

but it's a maybe. I think if we're talking to any time touchdowns, this does feel like, it does feel like they're going to do some goofy stuff with Debo in this game. Like if they're trying to sort of get that pass rush and it steals a little bit,

that's either like a jet sweep or a quick pass slant thing. Like I do feel like this could be the game where they sort of unleash him a little bit. So right now plus 195, right, for any time touchdown for Debo, 10 to 1 for first TD scorers. So those are some possible options here. And also like McClure probably starts a little slowly too. You would imagine if you didn't get much. I think the under would be wise to play for him. All right.

we have three games so far and we have three maybes. Three maybes. All right, well, we're headed to do a fourth, buddy. I don't know if we'll have one right here. Oh, geez. Are you going to convince me on this? Are you going to sign on this one? Matt, go ahead. Yeah. All right. Bangles. I think you're right by the way. They're laying five and a half to the Cleveland Browns. Everyone

is out on the Browns. This line has actually come down a little. I think this was at six for a bunch of the offseason and it's come down because all the sharps have gotten wise at once. it might even be headed to five so this might be a good time to buy if you like Cleveland I mean this is a pretty simple case

even regardless of the fact that the Bengals tend to start pretty slowly it's just that like it's week one and the Browns have a pretty pretty damn good defense Joe Flacco is going to be healthy like they they the rest of their team is kind of fine like no they don't have

peak Nick Chub anymore like okay but this is still the defense that last year we all loved that we all thought was going to, you know, turn the team around. They still have Stefansky. They still have the infrastructure of a team that just a few years ago felt like it might be a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender. And this is like, you know, it's kind of a must win situation for them.

Like if they get blown out in this game, you know, that things can turn in a hurry. But I just really think that people are taking their sort of macro view on the Browns and forgetting, you know, this is a team with a really good defense. if the Bengals starts low on the road, it's, oh, are they going to do this again where they start and stink the whole, the whole month of September? I just think this is a goodbye for the Browns.

I love the Browns here, Matt. A couple things. One, obviously, is I don't think they're as bad as we want them to be. I think the course isn't great, but this is Joe Flaccoa's healthiest and most agile in week one. Sifanke is a play caller.

just waiting to use all these plays in week one he's been waiting for. And the Bengals defense sucks. It's not good, Matt. Nothing's gotten better. Yes, Trahundredton is back. I get it. It still stinks. It's still not very good.

And the Browns have enough pieces to make the Bengals pay. Also worth noting here that Joe Burrow has not been good against the Bengals in his career. I mean, the Browns against in his career. And that's important because so, you know, out of 59 racing games, since 2021 Burroughs games versus the Browns have ranked 35, 40, 48, 51, 57, 59, EPA. So he hasn't been good against them, Matt. And that carries, right? The Browns obviously do something well against the Bengals that had months to prepare for this game.

And you're right. Everyone's saying they're out, you're out. And this is a stinky Jeff Schwartz Smart News special, right? Cleveland plus five and a half in this game. This game is going to end up, you know, being, you know, 27, 23. and we're going to cover and be just fine with it. You got to do it. And, you know, obviously, we haven't mentioned the borough thing yet because I think it's just going to be.

So, you know, obviously everyone's going to be talking about it. Week one, he's one and four straight up and against the spread. That's tied for the worst. He's three and seven against the spread and one in nine straight up in the first two games of the year in his career. And otherwise, he's 42, 23, and one straight up and similar against the spread. So I just, you know, everybody's like, well, they're not going to do it again. They're not going to stink again in the beginning of the season. Well, like, what's different?

It's the same team. It's the same coaches. It's the same quarterback. And they have to go on the road at the divisional team. I wish this was six. But I will take it at five and a half before it gets to five because I think it's going to head there over the weekend. So jump in now. Four games, four maybes.

So good start for us. I feel like this next game, though, you're going to have to, you're going to have to hard sell me on this one. but I think if I just I hope you don't make the case I hope you're going to make yeah all right buddy well I am going to try to make it uh it is the Aaron Rogers Justin Fields body swap game the Steelers are laying three points at the New York Jets the play there's only one play here and it is unfortunately the Jets the question is are we going to make it we talk a lot about Mike Tomlin on this show we love backing Mike Tomlin when he's got a plus next to his name he has a minus next to his name in his career. He is 44% as a road favorite against the spread. In that time, I think the Steelers are the fourth or fifth worst team against the spread

as road favorites, ahead of just barely like the Browns and teams like that. The total in this game, by the way, is 38.5 and it's actually, I think it's heading down. It was at 39. And a half earlier this morning when I looked.

So I just think this is going to be a tight back and forth game. They're going to both try to control the pace. There's, there's Steelers, Rogers takes forever to get a playoff, right? Like, it's just going to be one of these like run the ball, punts, field golf, you know, whatever. And I just, I just think, I know, I know. The side is the Jets. It's, I'm not sure I want to do it.

But if we're picking a side, it's, that's the side. So the Jets lost one of the best offense alignment today from practice. I think he heard himself today, maybe yesterday. Elijah Fred Tung is out. I just don't like their quarterbacks. I just don't like the quarterback room. Maybe you saw yourself in week one. Justin Fields is able to just use his legs and use athleticism and make plays.

They certainly have a pretty good roster for being a team I think is going to stink this season. It's just to me it's a quarterback again, Matt. But Rogers, I believe, didn't play in the preseason. So there's really not much connection there, at least in a game with the players he's going to play with on Sunday. The Jets defensively are good and I think they can limit the season. But do you want to need a field's late score to cover the? game or is it going to be a game you think that the Jets are within the number for most of the game? That's like like the Browns.

I could buy Joe Flacco driving down and making plays. I could buy that 100% and getting getting a touchdown late to turn from a 10 point game to a three point game. I just don't buy Fields having to do that in this game against Pittsburgh. That's what worries me. I mean, you're worried that the Aaron Rogers, 41-year-old's offense against the Jets defensive line and Aaron Glenn is going to come out firing. and that we're going to have to make it up. Like, I just, I don't see it. I mean, I just, this is, this is, we're already turning into just the ugliest card of all time.

It's already, it's already turning into this. I mean, if you remember last year, we were like, everyone was really hot on the Jets. They came back, you know, Rogers had come back and they were like, they were like two point dogs or something to the Niners. And they got absolutely murdered in that game. It was the Niners won by two touchdowns. I just don't think Rogers is going to start. the season hot, it's just a question of do we believe in fields, but we don't need to win. We need to lose by a less than three.

To cover. I know. I get it. So I think it has to go in the maybes, but we're, so thank God we've got some relief coming here. Oh, we have some relief the next game. This is going to be a skip. So is this just a ban?

Five games. Five maybe. I don't know if it's a ban, but this game just. So there are Survivor leagues, right? Yeah. On Draft Kings, you go into the pool section, planning of Survivors. I'm going to play Survivor. We all play Survivor leagues.

You can buy back in a lot of them eventually. There's going to be a lot of people this week on Arizona at New Orleans, which is the next game here. They're nearly a touchdown favorite on the road. I think Arizona smokes them at. But last year we saw in week one where the Patriots beat the Bengals and knocked out half a survivor contestants. This is the game right here that knocks out half a survivor contestants.

It's the Saints at home, Spencer Rattler, against a Cardinals team with Kyler Murray that sometimes just has a dud. And so I want no part of this game. The Cardinals are on our band topics list, by the way, as we were refreshed us. There's going to be a very deep discussion we have about one of the teams on this band list in a few minutes.

We have officially added Kurt Herbstreeks' dog to this, Pete, because we figured out his name. We said if we figured out his name, we're on this list. How do you feel, you don't have a dog, I don't think. How do you feel about a dog being on the band list? I feel badly for the dog.

I think that the problem people have with the dog is not the dog. The problem is that it's that it gets so much attention. Pete gets so much attention as a dog. Yeah. Yeah, Curb Street. He's the normal guy. He has like a very pretty fun dog that he brings around. Like this isn't news.

But I guess if TCU is putting a 50 point pasting on Bill Belichick, then they need to cut to something. So like, whatever, I get it. His dog put the headset on. He was panting. He did. He was panting. I literally, I, I, I, tuned in. I was doing something child care related and then tuned back in and I just saw like the score and the dog with a headset on and I was like, what does happen? How long have I been gone? It's only been like 20 minutes. I got to. You're like I'm out immediately. Yeah. So nomination for the band list is going to be Spencer Rattler just for the record. We don't need to decide it now. I just don't ever want to talk about him ever. But I also think, I don't know what this is, but we just have to have a code and laying six and a half points with Kyler Murray on the road. We're not. We're not.

never going to do that. You will never see me do that. I will not do it in a survivor pool even. Kyla Murray is the worst quarterback record wise as a favorite. The second, interestingly, is Trevor Lawrence when we're just talking about straight up wins and losses. So we are going to pass on this game. And I'm so irritated about it, Jeff, that I actually think we need to take a pause so that I can regain my composure over here. So we'll take a pause here for the audio audience on the YouTube audience. We're going to stay here. We back at just a few minutes. All right, Matt, we're back. Hopefully you've calmed down a little bit here.

We banned a dog and banned a team player, maybe all together. Let's get back into some of these games here. The next game is interesting. I don't know what to make of this number. It's the Falcons hosting the Bucks in a huge game for playoff implications. We assume the Bucks are two and a half point road favorites. No one, despite the facts that the Bucs or the Falcons are sort of a darling team, No one is betting on them.

I think 80% of the bets are on the Bucks is a road favorite. Yeah, yeah. So what are we doing here? Okay. So I think betting on the Falcons has to go on the band list, Matt, because we've been doing this show now for how many, six years, I think, now. And we've lost every wage during the Falcons. Whether we're on the Falcons.

We lost last year when the Falcons played the Chargers, and the Chargers didn't score like an off at the touchdown for the entire second half. Or didn't know they had seven puns, whatever, insane thing it was and we didn't cover that game. The Falcons never win wagers. I will tell you this though. The two and a half in this game is really interesting because we know that the three is the typical number now. I will say with home field advantage being adjusted a little bit Matt, two or two and a half might be more traditionally sort of where that number is at, not three

anymore. But don't be afraid if it's two and a half. Like I think people look at that say, well, I'm going to take the favorite now. They're telling you where to bet. They're telling you the Falcons is the side of this one, right? So I wouldn't be opposed to it, Matt. I just lose every Falcons game I wager on. And so I think until I see them play a game with the roster they have now, Penn X being the full-time starter entering this season, obviously, the full-time starter, I think we stay away from Falcons games for the most part.

They are their side. We've got 70%, 68% of the tickets are on the buck spread on draft king, 75% of the money line tickets. Baker Mayfields. He is the third least profitable quarterback against the spread as a favorite. 38% only ahead of Derek Carr and Russell Wilson. He's never been 500 as a favorite or above in his career, which is fascinating. Six and 14 as a favorite against the spread against his division.

Four and 12 against the spread in his division in his last 16 starts in that spot. Thank you to our friend Evan Abrams at Action Network for those. Falcons are the side, but I hear you. I don't know if we need to stick it in. And by the way, like the bucks are the bucks and the Falcons of the Falcons. So I'm fine to wait and see on this one. It's not like we're hurting for contenders.

No, no. All right. Here it is, Jeff. You're going to make the case for me and I'm going to get really upset. It is the Miami Dolphins who, oh, interesting. This is shifted.

The dolphins are now, wait, has it been this way the whole time? I thought the dolphins were laying points, but they are actually getting a point in a half. The Colts are laying the point in a half at home. Dear God, are we betting on Daniel Jones? Please say no. All right, Matt, betting splits. Okay, we're going to talk about this from time to time.

And it's not the BLN doll, but it might tell you where the sharp money is going. You typically want to be on that side. Right. So when we say sharp money, we mean like syndicates. I do a radio show with Bill Krakenberger. His entire job is wagering. That's what he does for a living.

They bet a lot of money on games. When he makes a wager, the line moves, right? So you want to be in his side. A lot of times they're going to be on the side that's not on the public side. So when you see a lot of tickets. So if you go to draft King's app, it's right here. You can see it right here. Under game lines, it tells you the number of bets placed on the money line, on the spread.

And so 75% of money has been bet on Miami plus one and a half. And the number has moved toward the Colts over the last couple of weeks. So the Colts have gotten to be longer favorites, but more monies on Miami. That's telling you, Matt, that sharp people are waging on the Colts, right, for the number to move, while Joe Schmoe is waging on the dolphins, okay?

So that's a good indication. It doesn't mean you wager on them completely. But let me make my case for the Colts here, Matt. Look, I am no Daniel Jones fan, but I do think in this spot, there's going to be a lot of ways for the Colts to create offense in week one. I think it's uniquely an early season thing

where the dolphins don't know what they're going to see from Jones in this offense. I think Jones overrushing. I think I wrote it down. It's like 41, 42 and a half. It is a good wager because I think they're going to have to run the ball and use his legs in this game.

And there's just, I think, an ability for Stuyken to design an offense early the season, Matt, that works really well for Daniel Jones. On the other hand, I didn't the dolphins stink, dude. I think they're really bad. And like that's part of it as well

where, what are the dolphins? How are the dolphins in this game? What are they bringing that makes you feel great about Miami in this game? The offense is so one dimensional now. No, by me one dimension, I mean two, it just takes a snap, looks one direction, the ball's not open

in two seconds, he doesn't know what to do with it. He doesn't want to get hit anymore, right? Matt, their offensive line's not great. The run game's not great. the short yarder situations. They don't do anything really well. And so I get the idea of, we think Shane Stank is a good coach.

We do. Daniel Jones is competent enough to run offense in week one. They've worked on for two weeks now to prepare for this game. I'm the cold to the right side here. Well, I mean, your point about the fact that all the bets and money

have been coming in on Miami this whole time and the line hasn't moved is very curious. That's a bit of a red flag to your point. Shane Stike, weirdly. Wait. Red flag to what? Red flag saying that the dolphins

are not the right side. So I'm agreeing. Oh yeah. I said it poorly, but I'm agreeing with you. Yeah. Okay, perfect.

The Colts under Stike in 15 and 8 against the spread in September, October, November, 3 and 8 in December or later. Only Dan Campbell has a better against the spread rate than that. But the Colts never win in week one. Two and 14 and one

straight up in their last 17, and against the spread and two are undefeated in week one. So those trends are all bad, just interesting. I don't really want to bet on this one. I don't really have a feel for this one. I do think that it's a little bit concerning

that A. Chan has been banged up. He said in practice on Wednesday, oh, I'm 100%, but like, no, you're obviously not. The Tyree Kill thing has just been strange. This is just an odd team, but it's an indoor track meet of a game against kind of a weird defense and a team that, you know,

I don't know who scares you on the Colts offense, but I do think the Colts are the right side. I just like, oh my God, I just, oh my God, I want to die if we have to do this. So I want to die are the wages that win, which is kind of the way that works in the NFL.

Yeah, they better. I want to die and then it loses. I'm going to give you college wages. I'm going to give you college wages in the end of the show, Matt, and we're going to pick all a bunch of big favorites. Don't you worry. Okay, great.

If you want to bet on big favorites, favorite to buy five touchdowns. this will be the podcast for you. All right, let's move on the next game. Thank you for that. I don't know how much we're going to have for Raiders Patriots,

but here we go. Yeah, interesting. I think I'm really going to be interested in this game, but it's a sign usually not to bet it. The Raiders are plus three in Foxborough. This one has danced around a little bit two, two and a half for the Patriots.

I think the Raiders are probably the right side here, but I don't feel convinced enough. I'm very bullish on the Raiders and just feel like the Patriots maybe a little bit overrated, but I don't really feel strongly about it to you. I don't.

I just don't know what we're getting from the Raiders at the moment, right? You're relying on a rookie running back in the first game. You know Smith's new offense. I don't know. I think a general fate of the Patriots is probably fine this year. Like three points. They're a favorite in like 11 games, which is like, which is insane. 11 games.

But this is when I just, out of all those lectures, we have, I don't feel great about it. So I think, I mean, it's not a side of this one. Yeah, and you're getting the half point of value as we record this. I think this will end up back at two and a half. So, you know, if you're a Patriots buyer, maybe wait. But I think this is just a pass for us. I think we need to see both of these teams come out there.

Next up, the last game of the one o'clock slate, by the way. We're headed into the four o'clock after this one. Panthers Jaguars, going to be another fascinating game. Can't believe the Jags are laying the hook here. Three and a half. Pretty surprising. Are we just dumb for taking Carolina plus three and a half? Are we the dumb people here doing this?

I don't think we are. Why in Jackson's in favor by three and a half? I don't get the reason why. What's the case for them winning this game by over a field goal? Are they that much better than last season? The Panthers are better. I think they're better. Roster, you two, Bryce Young.

I like their coaching staff. What about, what about, what about, I'm looking at Jacksonville's roster, like, what about their roster where you're like, man, they got a lot better this off season? Travis Hunter, yeah, I, I, okay, I'm with you. But like, is he playing both ways the whole game? I think Travis Hunter's under is in a lot of these games

are a way to go, by the way. I don't like their offensive line. I like the Panthers coaching staff. Three and a half. I'm finally, Carolina plus three and a half, man. Me too. Lawrence, one and three straight up every year. played in the first four weeks, which is pretty odd.

Four and twelve, uh, cumulatively. Um, he's two and seven straight up at home. He is behind Kyler Murray. He has the second worst record, uh, straight up as a favorite, um, in the last 20 years, which is just stunning.

Um, the half point is just bizarre and the Panthers, you said it. Like, they're just a solid team that's, you know, taking some steps forward and I just think this is a number of play. I don't really feel a ton of conviction. about Bryce Young on the road, but I don't really, I feel like this is just a good value,

so we should put it on the list, but this feels like a fifth if we need it kind of game. Trevor Lawrence, by the way, it's on the band topic list, so we have to get on this pretty quickly. Okay, fair enough. And, yeah, so we have to, he's on the band list.

On the band list. Okay. All right, I do like Carolina here. The next game is just there's zero chance. We're playing anything in this game. Yeah, it would be, this is the Niners, playing two and a half in Seattle.

I can't possibly take the Seahawks. I'm so out on them, but I'm also very sketched out by a road favorite Kyle Shanahan 49ers team that I don't know even who's playing. So I think this is just a hard pass. I want to talk about it anymore.

No, I actually thought I mixed the games up. The next game we're talking about is a hard pass too. Look, I know a Sharp Group took Seattle today, Matt. I mean, this is divisional dog, right? We talk about this all the time. divisional dog at home week one. But I'm just, I think we're both out on Seattle, right?

We just did our NFC West episode. And I just don't, I think Darnold was good last year. Not going to be great this season. I think the Niners are healthy right now for the most part, right? I mean, teams are healthy as they're going to be, I like what team coming off a year they they had last year, going to be motivated to start fast this season. So I would just stay away. That's what I would do.

Yeah. I think, yeah, I just, I can't make an argument for either side, really. The next one you mentioned is a buyer beware. That's the Titans plus eight and a half at the Broncos. The Titans historically terrible against the spread last year. They fixed the quarterback, we hope. So that would have a big part of it. But this is a nightmare of a start to a career for Cam Ward.

Everyone's going to have this one in their survivor pool. The vibes are strange here. I think they put up this number this high so they could get out of all the teasers. But this, I don't know, can you possibly make a case for either side? No, I like Tennessee under 16 and a half team total points on draft games right now.

They're not going to score a lot of points, Matt. They're just not. It's going to be a rough season for them. And Denver could easily win this game, 3110, and we're just like, yeah, that was the right side. We knew it the whole time. But I think we'd just stay away from that one is it'll be a huge public side.

It'll be the number one survivor, play them, and probably the Cardinals, everyone fading the same. So, look, we have a ton of maybe so far. So we're good to stay with us. I think the next game, this next game, I'm curious if we're taking the two and a half here. Yeah, it's the Lions at Packers. What a game this is going to be.

Still in this, this is the 125, 425 window. Packers by two and a half. This one has sort of been hanging around there. I don't think the Parsons trade moved this one much, did it? Well, it's got his back injury, too. So I think people were worried about that. Right. Another reason why the Eagles thing is insane, by the way, but continue. What Eagles thing? That they, Michael Parsons might not even have played effectively with the Cowboys, but they still

moved it to move at point a half. Anyway. So when I first saw this graphic in the rundown, I actually wrote down Green Bay plus two and a half. That was kind of, it was like, oh, the plus two and a half, it must be plus if it's two and a half. it's a minus two and a half. Yeah. Like my first instinct was that this should, this would be, maybe the underdog in this game.

You don't know sirens going off, Matt? Like, to the point we made it about Green Bay, like, their Vegas thinks they're much better than maybe the public thinks they are. Lions, multiple coordinator changes, already guys heard on defense. Were they offensive without Ben Johnson who's doing, you know, we think it would do well in Chicago?

I'm not sure I love the Packers, Matt. but the Packers feel like the side here, even though last year we know they really couldn't beat and cover against playoff teams. This one scares me, man. It just does. I think it's a stay away,

but it would be Packers or nothing to me. Packers, I agree. They would be my side also. Lafleur, 15 and 3 against the spread in the first three games of the season, 7 and 0 against the spread at home in those games. But Jared Goff has never not covered in week one, 8 and 0.

Dan Campbell, 11 and 3 in September. So like the trends are, all just saying like just don't bet on this one and I got to see it. I mean, it is still the lions and they're coming off of a loss where they got absolutely embarrassed and you know that they're going to come out hot and you know that Dan Campbell's going to have them up for this one. I just think it's a fun stay away and we're going to learn something. Maybe we're going to have to ignore what we learn because it's going to be you know, somebody's going to make a real statement. But I'm good to lay off that. I'd say the Packers would be my side, but it doesn't seem like

either of us are dying to do that. No, I'd rather take the ugly cold. bolts in the Packers. So that's where I'm, that's where my brain's at right now. All right, we got a big game of Los Angeles here between two teams hoping to make deep playoff runs. Yes,

the Texans are at the Rams. A surprising three point favorite for the Rams. I think, considering we don't exactly know what condition Stafford is in here, but, you know, Texans know Joe Mixon, obviously,

a lot of rookie receivers who are going to have to get acclimated. Are the Rams the side here? I feel like I can't really tell. I just think with, health of Stafford than knowing on Wednesday we can't take any play in this one, right? I think if Stafford were healthy,

maybe the Rams would be the side. But look, the Texans, man, look, their offense last year was such a disaster, Matt, just fundamentally and schematically that I think we're sort of under the radar right now as far as teams we're talking about. If they go back to an offense that's functional, just schematically,

they're going to be really good again. They have a lot of good football players. Now, their offense lines are question mark, And that is a concern, right? You know, backing a team that went to division with a bad offensive line, but you look at the rest of the division, and there's question marks there as well all over the field, right? But we know they've got quarterback, wide receiver,

they got guys on defense that can sack the quarterback, and we know Demico Ryan is good as a head coach and defensive coach. But it does feel like, Matt, that the Texans are a little undervalued right now, especially if Stafford's back is as beat up as it is, getting three points in the situation feels like the right side. But without Stafford's health, knowing his health, I think it's a stay away for us. really well said i have nothing to add i think the tech you could be right that the texans might be

the side here um that's going to be a pass for us i i'm very curious to see how stafford looks um sometimes you know mcbay has made mountains of molehills and in these things and staff is one tough dude um all right sunday night game of the week is the ravens at the bills yeah the bills are laying only a point and a half uh lamar jackson historic as an underdog so is josh allen though so are all these good quarterbacks. I don't know. We're obviously not putting this one in, but what side are you on?

So I don't know. I don't know. Here's what's going to happen for me during this game, Matt. So Sunday afternoon, I'll put the TV on and I'll watch a lot of football. And my wife at some point is going to complain because this happens every Sunday, the first Sunday of every year, Matt.

She's like, football's on again? Yeah, yeah, happens every Sunday. From now until the end of February, right? Like, all summer we travel, all summer we have the most fun, right? And then the first Sunday, she's like, what the hell? We're watching football from 1 o'clock until 11? Yes, we are. That's exactly what's happening.

I'm sorry to break it to you. So by the end of the end of the day, she'll be so fed up with football. I'll have to appease her a little bit by watching some show. I'll be watching this on my iPad for the first, like, hour to fall asleep. I'll get back up. I'll watch on the big TV. I'll watch the entire thing, Matt. I don't want to have money on a game where I got to kind of switch like rooms to watch.

If that makes sense. You know, like I want to be locked in the entire time. So I think it's a pass for me. I think it's a great game. The number's about right. I think Buffalo is a Super Bowl champion this season. If it's not Kansas City, essentially, I think those two will battle.

I think Buffalo is the one seed this year. I think Buffalo is better than Baltimore. So the number makes sense. But I'm just going to sit back and watch a game, Matt. I completely agree. and I have a feeling, if you're listening to this and you're like,

I kind of think Baltimore might be able to pull it off, pull the trigger. This line, I think, is going to move towards a pick. There's lots of Baltimore backers out there that I think are going to move this number. Lamar, 12 and 3 against the spread

as a dog in his career. That's incredible that in all this time he's only been a dog 15 times. I think the Ravens, I think the Ravens are better than the bills. So I would take the Ravens, but obviously, whoa, A, we disagree, and B, this is a really tough game. So it's not going to make our five, but really going to be fun one.

I can't wait to watch that one and make my wife exhausted as well. Monday night game. Is this a teaser like for you? Is Baltimore a teaser like for you? Well, that's a good. It's a good point. We could build a little teaser out here. Tees down the Broncos, tease up the Ravens.

And maybe this one, Jeff. This would be a good third leg. The Monday night game. Vikings at Bears buddy the bears are catching a point and a half at home and I'm telling you I think if we learned anything from the the archmanning and forget the Notre Dame quarterback's name C.J. something, whatever.

If we learned anything from that, it's to maybe fade the guy making his first start on the road in a big spot and buy the bears who you know I love this year. I think the bears are a really nice pick here but I have a feeling you are not going to buy this one. I'm not. I don't know what the bears are going to be, Matt.

It's like I know what the Vikings are going to be. And the other games, look, I'm looking at the list right now. We might think that the Jets stink, but I don't know. I sort of know I'm getting with the Jets, right, plus the three. I know what I'm getting from the Colts, the Browns even. I don't know what I'm getting from either of his teams, right? Yeah.

Caleb Williams, game one, the regular season. If you recall, when they beat Buffalo in the preseason week two, they were the best team of all time. The Chiefs have shoved them in a locker for a half. You know, like the Vikings, McCarthy, he played a little bit in the precinct, not a ton. I just don't know what we're getting Matt in this game. And so to me, it's just a stayaway.

Complete stay away. It is what it is. It's a standalone game. We just, we just, maybe you want to tease the Bears, Matt, if you feel good about the Bears. But to me, it's just a complete stay away. 70% of the money on the Vikings, uh,

on the road as road favorites with a quarterback we've never seen play in the NFL. It hits all my alarm bells, but I know I'm not going to convince you and we can leave it there. Why don't we, Jeff, we have our picks to make for our, for our first week. Why don't we take a break and review our maybes and then lock these MFers in, yeah?

Yeah, so stay tuned if you're watching YouTube. Audio will be back in a second. All right, Matthew. We're back. So the way this goes, I gotta move stuff around. I'm in this great MetaLark Studio. It's fantastic.

It really looks nice there. Thanks to the team there putting us up. I wish the computer, I wish we could do like a computer screen like up there. They didn't look down so much. I'm looking at my computer here. I got my notebook here. I read everything by by hand.

I don't know for this for this successors. We have five to make. Okay, Matt. Okay. The Mabies, Dallas, Kansas City, Washington, Cleveland, the Jets Indie, Carolina, Green Bay in Chicago. So the way we do this is that there are some games that we, we love, Matt loves, they go in.

They're just they're in, okay? That's the way it works. I'm not going to validate Matt. I know it's my show, but Matt's a big part of it. And we're not going to validate his feelings about games. This is just a classic relationship strategy. Like, well, you said this restaurant's going to be great. So like, let's go.

We should go to that restaurant. We should go to that restaurant. You said it's going to be great. And then it's a lose-lose for that person because if it is great, then it's like, okay, well, now you're never going to listen to me again. And if it sucks, then it's like, well, you know, screw me. Like, I drove us down a cliff. I see what you're doing there.

I'm on to you. We've done this every year. Okay, we're eliminating Green Bay. They're off the list. We're limiting Chicago. Okay. Off the list. Are we limiting, I feel like out of all these ones, are we limited, do you love Washington

a ton or not? No. For this, for, I mean, for emotional head reasons. Like, if they, if they lose, I'm going to be very sad that I lost it publicly as well. So now we're down to only six. Dallas, Kansas City, Cleveland, Jets, Indy, Carolina. Dallas, Kansas City, Jets, Carolina. I feel like these dogs, I feel like these dogs were in on, right?

Like Cleveland and the Jets and Carolina, are we in on those three? Cleveland, Jets, Carolina. I feel better. Cleveland and Dallas are my two favorites. then the Jets, the Jets worry me a lot. The Panthers are, I think, of smart play, and then I feel like the Chiefs are going to be in this thing. But, yeah, I feel, we can lock Cleveland.

Let's lock Cleveland, and I'm fine to lock Carolina too. So Cleveland, Carolina are in. All right, so that eliminates those guys. I'm Indies in. I like Indy. That's just going to say. Oh, in, indeed. Yep.

Okay. Okay. Okay. So we have God, you really want to put Dallas in there. Oh, boy. Eight and a half, man. It's just a ludicrous number.

But we don't have to. If we like, okay, so we're at three for sure. And then we're deciding between Dallas, Kansas City and the Jets. Dallas, Kansas City, and the Jets. We need two. The number with Dallas makes a lot of sense. But, geez, man.

Man, this is looking like a typical week for us. We've got Joe Flacco, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones so far. We might as well throw Justin Fields in there. Well, I put, I mean, so we do, I put Kansas City in there. So we at least have one quarterback we can root for. So if we do, so between Dallas and the Jets, and we typically don't do Thursday night games. Jesus, Chris. I mean, we listen on Friday, too.

That's partly why we don't do that. I mean, we could throw it out. Or we could just not take Daniel Jones as a favorite, just putting that one out there. Like we do have that option available to us. Dude, I think Miami's really bad. All right. We got to keep that one in. I'm going to do the relationship strategy to you and say, well, it's your show.

All the money is on the Miami Dolphins on the road in week one. Yeah, it's not great. That's insane. That's ludicrous. Here's a deal, Matt. So there are people that we, uh, we follow on the internet. They follow on the internet that give out wages that suck at it. Okay.

I'm not saying we're the best, but we do okay job. are they, you think they're going to rather give out the Cowboys 8 and a half or the Jets plus three? Like what are they going to give out? Or, I mean, Pittsburgh minus 3. Like what, probably the side to give out the most would be Eagles, right? Eagles minus 8 and a half out of the four sides. Next would be Steelers, I would imagine.

Oh, man. Man, but I like them both. I really do. I think the Jets is a, just a gross side. You just, 17, 14, 14, 14, 13, like just I mean, Fidding Aaron Rogers sounds like fun, doesn't it? It does. Outside.

So, okay. Here we go. Oh, no. Here we go. All right. Read them back. Okay. Oh, Lord.

This is just, Cleveland plus five and a half. Carolina plus three and a half. Indy minus one and a half. Kansas City minus three. Jets plus three. So Flacco, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, and Patrick Mahomes.

Can I predict our record? I'm going to predict our record this week. We're going to go 3-1-1-1. The Chiefs are going to push. The Chiefs are going to push. The Jets are going to blow it. And then we're going to cover with these three disgusto teams. I think that's our record.

I'll take 3-1-1-1, dude. Every-1-1 would be great. I'm worried about this. Chiefs wager. I just, I know it's going to come down to, oh, and here's Butker from 55 and the Chiefs win again and Herbert blew another one. Like, that's, that's what's going to happen. Well, the good thing is you're going to be on two shows this week to pick the Chiefs minus three. So you'll be ready, you'll be prepared for that one as well. Yes, that's true. That's true. You'll be very prepared for that for that show. All right, college football. I did okay last week.

I'll give you some, some thoughts so far. Matt of what I have. Did you? Yeah, I went undefeated. Who'd you wait on last week? I bet on Miami money line in Ohio State. Miami, yes, two games.

Okay, so a couple of things I like. I took Michigan under 20 and a half points at Oklahoma for a couple of reasons. Last week we saw Michigan start Bryce Underwood, 18 years old. Look fantastic. True freshman. He's got a rifle, a cannon of an arm. but the offense, Matt, was very much, what's the best way to put it?

Limited's not the right word. I want to give credit to Michigan's offensive staff for putting together a very, a very sound game plan for a quarterback making his first start against a bad team. Play action pass, RPO, read one guy, throw the ball, like just a very coordinated game plan.

Now they're on the road in Oklahoma and Norman. Different, different battle, buddy. different life in this game. And I think they're going to struggle to move the ball. Their offense wasn't great against New Mexico. Oklahoma can play defense. This feels a lot like the Oklahoma Alabama game late in the season when Oklahoma kind of choked out Alabama's offense.

I think Michigan's going to struggle in this game. So I'm on Michigan. The other big game, Iowa, Iowa, State. You're on Oklahoma or you're on Michigan? I'm on Michigan under 20-and-half points. I'm sorry. Michigan under 20-half points. Got it.

Oklahoma, Iowa, Iowa State. I got nothing in this game. obviously for everybody three. I just will tell you that, like, people were pumped for Iowa's quarterback, this transfer from South Dakota State. He was like 8 to 15 for 44 yards in game one. So it's an inherent problem in Iowa.

And I think Iowa State, I don't think I know. Well coached, good quarterback. Like those are positives at home. Probably low-scoring games we see all the time. But that's what it is. So a couple of things, these are things I'm on because, look, Oregon, Oklahoma State, the lines not up right now. I grab 27-half for Oregon.

I either win this game by six touchdowns. Like they're just going to dominate Oklahoma State. And I'm okay laying that. And then a couple of bounce back opportunities, Matt. So Hank or producer Hank, his Texas Longhorns play San Jose State this weekend. They're favored by 36 and a half. I'm fine with laying 36 and a half.

They're going to, in my opinion, are just going to smoke San Jose State this weekend. They're going to be angry. They're going to be pissed about the Ohio State loss. They're taking on San Jose State. like Indiana. I will bet Texas, by the way. I'm leaning Indiana here.

My as, there was it, 36 and a half against Kennesstah State. The other one that I, I'm waiting to see where this nets out. USC plays Georgia Southern. They're favored by 28 and a half. I'm hoping we get some 28s back in the market. Georgia Southern lost 42 to 14 to Fresno State. They're terrible. And USC smashes bad teams in early this season.

Every single year, it's a Lincoln Raleigh special. and they're just going to dominate USC. The other one, that's a very fishy number. Very fishy number. Illinois is on the road at Duke. Duke is getting three points, Matt. Very fishy because Illinois is a team people talk about as a possible playoff team.

Not here, not Jeff Schwartz, but to be a possible playoff team and near the top of, the way people talk about them, not here, other people talk about Illinois, to be only a three-point favorite at Duke, which doesn't have the best home field, an atmosphere.

They're telling you, Duke's the right side here, Matt. I'm telling you Duke's the right side. Duke last week was tied with Elon at halftime. Weird game. They won 47, excuse me, 45-17. After they got going, they have a new quarterback. Their quarterback transferred to Oregon State, but they got a new quarterback. Their drive chart was missed field goal, punt, field goal, then a touchdown,

then a fumble. The half ended. Second half, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Touchdown. Four touchdowns. Like they got things going. They played there a second half. They had nearly,

they had 548 yards on offense. Like the box, the final score is misleading to how this game went. So I like Duke in this game to cover this game. I probably like them to win outright as well. So those are the wages I have.

It's Wednesday. I'll have some more as we go throughout this weekend. I would imagine you can follow them on social media. I'll put them on social media. I'll do my wages of the week. on my Twitter account, so go check that out. And that's college.

Anything else you have for college, Matt? Terrapins laying 17 and a half to the Northern Illinois Huskies. Malik Washington, looking pretty good there, but Maryland might have a quarterback. A sharp group sent out in Northern Illinois, by the way, for this week.

Yeah, they tend to do really well. I'm not saying that... I'm not saying that's always the way to play these with sharp groups. and I'm just giving you the information about what's been sent out. This game, by the way, Friday night on Big Ten Network. So I think some of these teams are going to dominate bad teams this weekend. There's a lot of big numbers, a lot of ugly numbers this weekend.

So be a lookout for all of that. All right, Matt, any last words here, buddy? Well, go Daniel Jones and the Colts. Cleveland, Carolina, Colts, Jets, Chiefs. Let's go. Cleveland, Carolina, Colts, Chiefs, Jets. We are going to enter a contest with these five picks a week on the drafting sports book. They have pools up there.

We're working on finalizing that, Matt, but these picks will be in a contest by kickoff this weekend. We'll play the contest. We'll give you our record each every week. They're transparent about it. We laugh. We joke about it. We cheer. We celebrate.

We are in despair, Matt. We hope you join us along this process. You fade us, follow us. I don't do whatever you want but this is what we're doing with our wagers so hope you enjoyed the first episode please rate review, subscribe really helpful any feedback

send me a DM send me a tweet whatever text Matt I guess maybe I think Matt gives out his number to everyone so you can have it on hand to send Hank Groberg a DM whatever Matt just let us know and we really appreciate it

we back on Tuesday with a recap and then back again later in the week with this same exact show Any last words, Matt? Go. Here we go, Colts. Let's go, Colts. Talk to you guys next week.

Take care, everyone. Have a good week and watching. It's on football.