Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Cashing in on Preseason Futures and NFL Wild Card Round Picks

Episode Date: January 13, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to talk through every game of the first round of the NFL playoffs and give you the best bets of the weekend, but first, they take a look back at their preseason prop bets to pat themselves on the back for their success, tally up all their winnings… and also to apologize for buying into the Browns. Also, Geoff tells the Giants what they should be looking for in their next head coach.Be sure to tweet @geoffschwartz with which teams you’re putting your money on this weekend, and remember to like and comment on the pod!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 13th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz of smart new powered by the varsity podcast network and we are into wild card week there are only six games in the national football league there are no college games and there is some nfl news to discuss some firings that we will talk about and where teams go in certain directions this is our wagering episode matt Matt, how are you, buddy? I'm good. Betting is legal in New York. I've enjoyed many a free promo and have a lot loaded up for the weekend. Let's go.

How many books have you signed up with? I've actually only just signed up with one. We're not going to name anyone here because we don't name things unless things are sponsored. Correct. But yeah, there's these great promos. There there's one promo jeff where they just give you you don't even have to deposit you just sign up and they just give you money like multiple hundreds of dollars and i look forward to i've just like bet a lot like a lot of like small little bets it's great i had my best weekend we actually had our best weekend we're six and one last week uh seven five and one i was six and one of my contest um and um we were 45 and 45

we finished exactly 500 now remember we had one extra game this week so we were really 44 and 45 because we added that extra game but nonetheless we, we went 5-1 this week. But Matt, we were 9-21 at one point after 30 games. And we have dug our way back out of this. I'm very proud of us. We do this every year. We start fast. We suck in the middle. We finish very strong.

We've got to find a way to get better in that middle. I did a contest this year for the first time, an official contest. Last year, I played a contest on one of those offshores. I went to Vegas. I signed up for the Golden Nugget Contest. Seven picks a week because I wanted to include college. And what I did this year is I took two college picks a week, my Pac-12 picks, and R5 picks.

Played them each week. Obviously, during bowl season, I leaned more toward the NFL. Obviously, this past week, I played seven NFL games. I finished 68 and 58. Wow. 54%. Very good. I'm 68 and 58. Wow. 54%. Very good. I'm pumped.

And that's with our shitty NFL record for most of the year. Actually, it was better when we started betting seven games, seven NFL games at the end of the year. So I'm proud of what we did. I'm more proud of what we did with our future wagers. Because we came on here in August and went through every division and we ended up spending eighty seven hundred dollars on uh eighty seven fifty on futures picks we decided whether it was a prop a team total whatever it was and we come out of this as of right now up almost five thousand dollars forty

seven hundred twenty four dollars yep and we're still going to probably make more. If Dak Prescott wins the comeback player of the year, we'll add $775 to that. Tom Brady's probably not winning the MVP, but if he does, we're adding $1,500 to that total. And we did really good. We did great in this. Yeah, we did.

A couple of things. We went over some of these last week. The big misses that I want to own up to are, i really thought the browns were going to be good this season looks crazy in hindsight we were very wrong about the whole afc north we bet burrow to go over his passing yards which he did uh pretty comfortably but we bet the steelers to miss the playoffs that we were almost right about that but we had the browns over the browns to miss the playoffs. We were almost right about that, but we had the Browns over, the Browns to win the division, the Browns and Packers to win their division. We faded Jamar Chase, which looks crazy.

That division was a wash, but the AFC South, we had a clean sheet. We bet the Titans to win, the Colts to miss, and the Jags to miss. And we had a few like that that were really sharp. Is there any one of these you look back at and you're like, man, I'm proud of this one or one you're embarrassed about?

Well, we obviously hit the Gibson one in week 18, which was great. Antonio Gibson over yards. And Washington didn't have to play him in that game, so we'll take that. Obviously, we missed him. My favorite of the year were two. Steelers not making the playoffs and Dak Prescott doing comeback player. I think Dak Prescott's still going to win comeback player of the year, even though Twitter's going to give it to Joe Burrow that's not the voters

are not on Twitter they are they're not actively voting on Twitter and the Steelers one I thought I was right about but looking at this sheet like we were Alvin Kamara we missed his over yardage um by like by 150 like he was hurt for six games like we would have hit that one pretty easily i feel like we were pretty much right where we should have been and we made a good a good amount of money man yeah we did we missed i mean every one of our we we had a lot of overs and player props and missed most of them i think that a smart thing to do at the beginning of each season is just go under on every starting running back. And you're probably going to hit 20, 22 of them and you're going to get burned on the others.

But I think like that was a good lesson. It's like somebody probably had like, I don't, we didn't bet this, but like if you had Dalvin cook, you know, under, you probably hit,

even though he had a great season just because he missed a game or two. Yeah. Camaro was the same. It was just like Kamara, we took a pretty sizable amount of yards, and if he had played one more half, he might have gotten it. Or if the Saints had a quarterback, like when Taysom Hill was in there, he struggled. So I think this is the key.

You sort of have three different seasons in the NFL. You have your futures bets, then you have your futures bets then you have your season then you have your postseason and like people are strong at different pieces of it um so i guess you know we'll see how we do in the postseason but you know the lesson for you guys check out our preseason show next year we're probably gonna we're probably gonna steer you in a good direction even if we miss uh the whole middle of the season i'll tell you where uh where we will always make money, and that's taking Saquon Barkley under next season.

Yes. That is going to happen. I don't care who the coach is for the Giants. That's going to happen. Yeah, why don't we talk about that? Joe Judge got fired since the last time we taped this show, and Dave Gettleman is retiring. Yeah, good, good.

They need to be gone. I mean, the Giants have been an embarrassment. John Morrow, the owner, spoke today, and he was peppered with questions, said we need to do they need to be gone i mean the giants have been an embarrassment uh john mara the owner spoke today and he was peppered with questions that we need to do a total rebuild i agree they need to do a total rebuild they have got to step outside of their comfort zone to find a leader general manager and a coach that don't do it the giants way right that do it the winning way the winning way find again, outside that comfort zone. I don't know who that's going to be, but there's like nine general managers that they're interviewing.

Find someone that, look, it's hard to say that stands up to the ownership, but just has a firm hand. You know what? I don't agree with that because, look, one of the maras is the personnel guy like you just can't you can't do that like so i think you have to understand that things have got to be uh different they need more innovative they need to hire the right guy and hire the right coach and i hope they can do that yeah giants with the worst record in the league since the boat photo the infamous boat photo i look you look at their roster and i like what do you have like they i thought at the end of the season the giants were in the worst roster shape had the worst coach and had the worst gm probably like if you just if you like

netted all those together uh in the league and it was interesting like i'm you know i live in new york for now and there's a lot of giants fans around and the giants fans were kind of bummed they were they all wanted to blame gettleman and said the judge really never got the chance but and and it's kind of true like like you know judge is basically being fired because of the way the season ended and it's like well it's not his fault that you know he had to run jake from out there but it just seemed like there was something bigger happening and it was falling apart um and in what could have been like a meaningless game at the end of the season they were just getting embarrassed like that that quarterback sneak thing that kind of went crazy on twitter it's just like

the giants aren't an organization that like flops on their face that much. And I, you know, I think the ownership was just sort of like, how much better can this get? But I was, I mean, I was a little surprised. Did you get people who were saying like Joe judge deserved a little bit of a longer chance? So here's the thing. Yes. The roster was not good. It's not his fault, but guess what? what roster is also not good the lions roster yeah and do you see them lay down any point this year do we see them quit do we see them not play their hardest no right like it looked like the giants had given up and you can't preach toughness and physicality and blah blah blah blah blah and then not play that way like the lions

play that way right you can't you play that way, right? Yep. You can't preach all that. It's interesting. If you look at who's in the playoffs right now, Nick Sirianni got blasted for his press conference. It was a lot of football games, right? Joe Judge got praised for his press conference. Well, not by this guy.

And everyone's like, oh, tough guy. Yeah, Joe Judge. He's so nice. He's tough. It's just that doesn't, you know, this Belichick thing, oh, tough guy. Yeah, Joe Judge. He's so nice. He's tough. It's just that doesn't, you know, this Belichick thing, man, so far. By the way, there are no Belichick assistants and head coaches in the NFL anymore. Right. After Brian Flores and Joe Judge left.

Why are we still going down that rat mount? Like, why are we going down the tough, tough guy, Joe Judge? I just don't get why that matters. Joe Judge I just don't get why that matters the way you're tough in the NFL is

by the way you act right like on the field how you practice not what you say and people know that and players know that players can feel that

and it just felt so fake to me the entire time and he'll probably go be he'll probably go be what would'll probably go be uh what would you know call it an analyst for for nick saban yeah whatever but at least he won't be on the giant sideline anymore this is the right decision it was the right move now giants fans can move on

and be excited for the they're it's bad when there were six dollar tickets the other day like it's it's pathetic for the giants yep yeah i mean look at the team that beat them it's like washington's roster is just as tattered and they had nothing to play for and they came in there and kicked their ass because they had some pride with a real coach and i think that the giants get this chance to rebuild i it will be very interesting what direction they go it seems like a lot of teams in this position lately have taken the the joe judge the sirianni these like flashy like big talkers assistants it's like would they be the kind of like brian flores you mentioned him like i kind of feel like he'd be a perfect fit there like he's

he's all about like you know toughness and he's kind of a badass and he comes from the belichick tree i think that i think he would make the most sense there of any of the openings. I'm curious what you think. Who'd you say again? Flores. With the Giants? Yeah.

So my concern with Flores as we're getting the reports that this is another Belichick guy, right? Rough around the edges, not the best person on the deal. Now again edges, you know, not the best person I want to deal with at times. Now, again, when you win, you can be ornery and you can be the hard to deal with, like Belichick can be. But it's also the way you act or the media way you act to your players, right? They're two separate things. You know, Tom Coughlin was kind of this prickly guy in the media. I love my interaction with Tom Coughlin.

I have no problem with Tom Coughlin. And so I don't think – what I would do if I were the Giants, I'd hire a young general manager, a young head coach. Someone with previous coaching experience, fine. But, like, hire young, innovative, new thoughts, you know, a new way to scout, just kind of new everything. Bring some energy back in the program.

Again, it doesn't have to be a former coach, but maybe a young defensive coordinator, offensive coordinator, just someone that thinks differently than you think now. And that, to me, that's what I would do. That's interesting. That, to me, that's what I would do. That's interesting. I mean, I kind of feel like they tried that with Judge.

With general manager, I think they probably will because they have to. There's no obvious choice. They have to leave the building. It's cool to hear the name Adrian Wilson as a candidate, the former safety who's now working with Steve Keim in Arizona. I thought that was interesting. But I don't know. Couldn't you see the Giants doing a Jim Caldwell or doing

a Mike Zimmer? Jim Caldwell would be great, I think. Or even a Doug Peterson. I think that would be kind of an interesting one. We're going to hear these really interesting scenarios. I'm curious. It just feels like the Giants. This is a huge decision. They've really been in the gutter now for a while. Ben McAdoo was their coach.e judge like i i wouldn't be shocked that pat shirmer was in the middle pat shirmer like if they went into a just like hey let's get

someone competent a steady hand for a little bit you know i think zimmer might deserve another shot but like who's taking that job without a certainty a quarterback that's that's a real thing so it's really interesting the giants have just such a bare cupboard and uh as a washington fan i was hopeful that they'd keep judge and get them in there for another year because it was a train wreck but they really get a chance we'll see what they do with it it was great for you guys right it's washington football fans it was even though uh they'd swept us last year um all right well enough about bad teams should we move on to at least some good teams? Yes.

I cannot wait for these playoffs. It's going to be fantastic. So how do you want to do this? Should we agree on these or should we just make our picks and go ahead to end? Well, we're not putting them in a contest. So I think the best way to do this

and this is great podcasting, right? Just talk about it on the show. I think we should just give our favorite picks on on each game and just people can decide where they want to go with it um because i don't like a wager in every game but i'll tell you where i'm leaning there's there's really as of right now there's two i really like um and again i mean it's wednesday like there's not even a prop market really i'll give you my ideas on where i think props should be at if you're looking to go either way. But we'll talk through these games like we do with six of them, two Saturday, three Sunday, and one Monday. wrong but it actually is a thing we'll get to that um all right let's start and let's go chronologically the first game will be saturday at 4 30 eastern uh the the raiders congratulations and thanks for coming through for us uh you're in the playoffs bad news you have to go to cincy

uh and the bangles are five and a half point favorites um i feel pretty strongly here i'm curious if you do too i took the Raiders plus six already. Really? Yeah, and I'll explain why. I think there is something to winning at the end of the season like they have. And they didn't sneak in the playoffs. They won their way into the playoffs, right? They went and beat Indy. They went and beat the Chargers.

And the way they're playing is kind of sustainable. Now, I'm not sure they're that good though, Matt. And that's the thing. I'm not sure they're going to win this game. But they have won a lot of close games this year. So they understand playing in those environments and close environments. They have a formula now on offense that has worked with Hunter Rundford. Now you add Darren

Waller back in there. And we talked about this, I think, with either me or you or Gabe. I mean, Derek Carr is playing a top seven quarterback right now. He's playing some good football. On the flip side, the Raiders' pass rush has been really good the last month of the season.

Max Crosby leads the NFL in pressures right now, 101, I believe. The Bengals' offensive line is not good. Now, the one caveat I have to this is the Raiders' defense in the first matchup now it's hard to take away that was played two months ago right they're two different teams now but the raiders can be susceptible to allowing a lot of points to good quarterbacks right whether it is herbert whether it is pat mahomes and look to allow a touchdown a fourth and whatever is not

acceptable um so there is some issues in their pass defense. But six points, I think, for a playoff team and the Bengals who haven't been there. Now, the Raiders haven't been there either. Now, Carr got them to a playoff, so he didn't play in that game, right? But there's a lot of pressure on the Bengals. Home playoff game, you're expected to win this game

against the lowly Raiders who snuck in the playoffs. They didn't really do that. And I think the line's going to move in my direction, Matt. I think it opened at six. I got six. I think this closes five, four and a half, four. Yeah. It is at five and a half now.

I'm, again, going to go against you here with the Bengals, who I just think I'm higher on. I will say that the pros seem to be on your side. This is one that everyone has bet. All the money's in on the raiders here my case is basically like first of all this is a really tough scheduling break for vegas like they just played they played the last game last weekend in overtime uh now they have to play the first game the following week in the playoffs they have to play outside which they haven't had to do a whole lot in this last stretch of the season their last outdoor win uh was against nick mullins and the

browns in december but other than that they haven't won an outdoor game since october um it's gonna be 31 degrees in cincy that we usually see you know some sort of adjustment there and car traditionally has not been great in those kind of spots. The thing is, though, since he, you know, I kind of feel like they're one of those teams that's, like, too young to know about, like, the history of this team. Like, the Bengals haven't won a playoff game since they beat the Oilers. Like, that's how long it's been. The Oilers were renamed and then moved. So it's been a really long time. But I think, you know the i think the bangles are

not going to be aware of their own history but the other thing is like you you say that the raiders have won their way into the playoffs they have but they've been really lucky like obviously the end of the game last week was lucky but they won six games on the last play this year and that's the most uh of anyone in since the merger 50 plus years ago so i just feel like they're they have been really lucky and i feel like their run their luck's just going to run out this week against a very good bangles team i mean that that's that's certainly fair um again there's not a i wish there was a better prop market dude there's like there's not a prop market on wednesdays what would you be into i'm just i'm trying to look at what i would think like i i think i would be okay with taking i know that

sounds silly but the joe burrow passing total is going to be so inflated yeah it's gonna be crazy it's gonna be crazy high i mean i bet it's gonna be near 300 which is a lot for for an nfl game um i would look at taking the joe burrow under just oh wait maybe there is a lot for an NFL game, I would look at taking the Joe Burrow under just... Oh, wait, maybe there is one already. Oh, I see Burrow at... I see... Oh, just for Derek Carr so far. I know you have a different website.

I only see a Derek Carr number so far. I see a Burrow one. Burrow I have at 262.5. Oh, actually not that high. Yeah. Carr at 252.5. Actually, not that high. Yeah. Car at 254. Yeah. I think I would take the car over at 254.

I feel like the only way they're going to be in this game is that. I also would look at a Honda Renfro completions. He's his dude. Yeah. So there's a couple places to look, I think, in the prop market there if you don't like – what do you think about the total, 49? Yeah. I mean, an outdoor game like this feels a little bit high. But yeah, totals are just like a whole different game for me.

I don't bet them too often in the playoffs. You don't like to hit totals, yeah. We've got Hunter Renfro over 54.5 yards. I would take the over, yeah. Yeah, Waller at 57.5. That feels like an under. This is also a great teaser game, right? Bengals put them down to pick them.

Yeah. Because I think Bengals win. I just like the Raiders to cover the six. So that is – I'm glad you mentioned that. There's a couple of great teaser candidates in this week. I feel like this is the one that definitely makes sense to throw into a tease because, yes, I do think they win um why don't we move on to the next game saturday so i'm on the bangles you're on the raiders there but we both like the bangles and a tease uh saturday

night um the pats are at buffalo uh the bills are laying four and a half right now uh this is bounced around a little bit but let's say that it's four and a half um what do you think i like the patriots here getting the points um here's a couple things to consider it's kind of interesting so it's gonna be zero degrees i don't think it's gonna be very windy but to be very cold um i saw on twitter today i love mina khan she's fantastic and um she put out a tweet basically saying this is what she said she said pull up just to make sure I have the right language

she said what's your goofiest sports take that you actually kind of believe she said mine is if the Bills want to truly get the most out of Josh Allen they got to build a dome

and you think to yourself what do you mean he's got a great arm he moves well he's big and strong she continued he has a 50 completion percentage in freezing weather 40 out of 41 40 he's ranked 40th out of 41 quarterbacks over the last 15

seasons with that number that's interesting like he's not he's not been good in cold weather he he he doesn't play well it's very very. And it's funny because he's big and strong. He's from Wyoming. He played at Wyoming. Does that change the way you feel about this game? I think I'm with you on New England anyway. I would love them at four and a half. Four is fine.

A couple of things. So the stat that will come up again is uh road underdogs uh getting under a touchdown are 67 against the spread since 2003 when the wild card rounds uh started in this new form divisional road dogs um are 13 and 6 against the spread in the postseason so the splits favor new england's um josh allen one and three against the spread in the postseason this is the third time two teams that are sort of close and i would say buffalo you know maybe in a dome is is a good deal better but i think these two teams you know they split the series they're pretty close this is going to be i think a pros joes situation um where a lot of you know public is going to want to go against the Patriots team

that just lost to the Dolphins, who then fired their coach. I just want to pull up. Yeah, actually, the Sharps are on Buffalo for now, which moved this down to four. So I don't know. I just think with four, four and a half, New England has dominated in Buffalo. They've won 10 of their last 11 there.

Obviously, Tom Brady was a big part of those. I just think you take Belichick with the points in the cold weather. Yeah, I think you do too, right? The better offensive defense alliance in this game, the better pass defense with Buffalo. But I think the first game, you kind of throw out because of the weather, right? The second game, Josh Allen made some incredible throws, like unbelievable. If he makes two less of those throws, totally different game, right? So, and all the pressures on Buffalo in this game, too. Like, this is the Evil Empire's coming to Buffalo. A night game on Saturday night of wild card weekend.

I like the calmness of the Patriots. Like, they're going to be calm, under control, relaxed. So, the Patriots, to me, feel like the way to go here. Do you have a number for Josh Allen passing yards? I will look that up. I will say, though, one thing that I think people, you know, the Patriots seem to be like the popular take for people like us who claim to be a little bit smarter than the average fan.

The only thing that is a little bit worrisome is a rookie quarterback who's struggled quite a bit going on the road in freezing weather which you know he said he didn't like coming into his rookie year that is a little that that is a little bit concerning um let me see player preps i don't have i don't have any numbers for alan yet on my my side i only have patriots ones yeah so well i think that's interesting to see what his numbers i just kind of take it with uh Allen yet on my sites. I only have Patriots ones. Weirdly. I think that's interesting to see what his number's at. Just kind of take it with what else you've seen so far this year. You'll get to the first game Sunday. Sunday, by the way,

is a dream for the NFL. You have Tom Brady, Cowboys Niners, Mahomes, and Steelers on one day in the NFL. Couldn't have it better. Let's start with Tom Brady who is hosting,

his Bucs are hosting the Eagles. The line is eight and a half right now. What are you taking? Wish we got it at seven. I should have bet it right at seven. Tam Bay is going to smoke the Eagles. I think we're in agreement here on this one. Eagles haven't been a playoff team all season.

They're very – now, some of the pieces aren't new to this, right? The offensive and defensive lines aren't new to this. But Jalen Hurts is. Nick Ceriani is. Tampa's not. Like, this is their bread and butter. They've covered six of the last seven at home. They're confident.

They're comfortable. They're going to make life heck for Jalen Ramsey. I mean, not Jalen Ramsey, for Jalen Hurts, in my opinion. It's going to be tough. They're going to make life heck for Jalen Ramsey. I mean, not Jalen Ramsey, for Jalen Hurts, in my opinion. It's going to be tough. Heck. I mean, I could say hell. Make life hell for him. Let's just start, you know, whatever.

I guess I cuss at this podcast. Constantly. I just think I do, right? Probably should stop that. I just think Tampa Bay wins this game by 14 points. I think it's just a snooze fest the second half of this game. Yeah, I don't see a number that I, like 10, I would be fine with. 10 and a half, I'd probably be fine with.

Brady 12 and 5 at home against the spread with the Bucs. Remember that these two teams played in this season, and I know that you can throw that out. But that game was not close the whole game that was the thursday night game the weather was bad the bucks were up by a million and the eagles kind of like came back and i think they ended up covering um yeah it was 20 it was 28 22 yeah i mean i know that the bucks are banged up but they're hopefully it looks like for net could be back this week levante david could be back this week. If they both say that if they're both going, those are two huge, huge pieces.

Huge. I just want to say that, you know, Philly's won six out of eight to close the season. Last week doesn't really count. Here are the quarterbacks they beat. They beat Heineke, who almost beat them. The backup tight end fell down. They beat Mike Lennon. They beat Garrett Gilbert. They beat Mike Lennon. They beat Garrett Gilbert.

They beat Zach Wilson. They lost to Daniel Jones. And they beat Trevor Simeon and Teddy Bridgewater, who was by far the best quarterback that they went against. They are not in the same league as Tampa, who even banged up is going to absolutely show up for this, obviously. I don't know. I think Tampa's an easy one i love

this is the second leg of a teaser with cincy tease this down to under three um i agree this is probably going to be the thing i come in the hardest on is just tampa minus eight and a half or or better i agreed i i think at some point i'm gonna care about this game because at some point you think sharps come in and just start taking Philly or not at all? I don't know. I mean, I just don't see a world where this is close late. You know what I mean? The only way this is close is if Philly comes out and runs a bunch.

They score on the first possession. They're up like 14-0 somehow. But even still, I just think that there's no way Tampa lets this one get away from them. I'm in agreement here. It was a tough game. I want to get to the next game because I have way more thoughts on Niners, Cowboys than I do Tampa Bay.

Yeah, it's funny. I could go either way on this. So now this is down to three. Dallas is laying three against San Francisco. What do you think? I'm begging, hoping this gets to two and a half and take the Cowboys. Yeah.

Everyone's on the Niners this weekend. Everyone is. I know. It's a little scary. Guys, the Niners have to sneak into the playoffs. Now, the Cowboys beat their division six and five against everyone else. That is a concern, right? But the Cowboys' offensive line is healthy.

Defense line is healthy. They turn the ball over a bunch. I mean, they take the ball away a bunch on defense. They have Dak and all their weapons. Like, I think there's just a better football team. Now, the concern obviously is Mike McCarthy in the playoffs and kind of the expectation of the season. But I just think they're better now.

People will point out that the Niners are number one in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They are good. Jimmy Garoppolo does well enough, but they won that Rams game with their offensive and defensive lines. I don't think you're going to do that against Dallas. I don't think you're going to do that. And so I think under three,

betting Dallas, they've covered a bunch this season, not great, but every one I know is on the Niners plus the points here. I know. Which I know. It's very scary. I say this every week about Kyle Shanahan as a road dog. He covers 60% of the time, including last week against the Rams. Dallas this season, the playoff teams that they played were Philly twice.

They played the Patriots. They played the Raiders and the Cardinals. They beat Philly each time, but one of those was last week and didn't really count. They beat New England on the road in overtime and kind of a weird game. And they lost to the Raiders and Cardinals at home.

The only wins other than Philly that they had against playoff teams were on the road, which is just kind of odd. The Niners beat the Bengals. to beat the rams twice yeah and they've the thing with the niners is they started so slowly and then they're a different team like i i feel like we kind of like you mentioned they sort of limped into the playoffs or they snuck in it's like they did but i think part of it was like they unlocked this Debo Samuel thing.

They are always one of the most injured teams in the league. They held out Trent Williams last week. I think that they're healthy now. I think that they're probably – they're certainly more battle-tested. They obviously have the advantage at coach. But the other thing, remember, road underdogs, 67% against the spread under a touchdown since 03 03 so i think that you just the smart play is the 49ers here but i could of course see us looking at each other being like why didn't we take dallas like they're so much more talented they're at home like this could

turn into a track meet on that turf like i could definitely see it i really wish i had jumped in at three and a half i think i did actually in some spots the three is the three is a little tricky um but i i guess i would lean san francisco any any props you like in this game you think early i know that they're not posted so yeah um let me take a look i'm i don't really know i mean i think that i think this one could be kind of a high flyer so i mean the total in this one is 51. That's pretty high. Do you have anything you like?

I wager there was a prop I saw earlier that said highest scoring game of the week. I took this one. I bet it's like plus 500. Huh. Yeah. That's interesting. Yeah. I could see.

They haven't leaned on. Niners haven't leaned on Kittle in a while. I could see him having a good week here. Nothing I would go and recommend a good week here. Nothing. I, nothing. I would go and recommend people put their actual money on. I have a feeling you're going to be pretty strong on this one.

The Steelers somehow are in the playoffs and their reward is they get to go to Casey where they're a 12 and a half point underdogs. I have no play in this game. I would not, I wouldn't bet anything. I would look to find some props or some live wager opportunities, but this is a lot of points, Matt, and the Steelers cover as a

dog. We talk about this all the time. Mike Tomlin's great as a dog. Yeah, they got their butts whooped 36-10, what, a month ago in Kansas City. Ben could barely throw, but I... It's more likely the Chiefs blow it than anything else, Matt, but I think it's more likely to choose blow than anything else,

Matt, but I think there's money better spent other spots in this weekend. What do you think? That's interesting. I assume that you would be on Casey no matter the money or the, no matter the spread, um, our home double digit favorites on this round are five and over against the

spread, uh, in the wild card round. Um, our friends at action, someone uh remember dan marino went out for the final score of 62 to 7 like sometimes the storybook ending is just not all that storybook i i agree on mike's mike sorry go ahead i certainly agree with the idea of big ben being like oh crap i guess i have to play one more week right i mean like i could definitely buy that idea of like oh okay we won great we're in the playoffs but like oh it's kind of ready to be done yeah i could definitely see that um the other

thing is like i i don't know like we talk about Mike Tomlin as a dog all the time. One thing that I did sort of notice is it just felt like the Steelers were like, it doesn't feel like they have the feeling of everyone's against us. Tomlin was dancing on Instagram Live last week because they snuck into the playoffs. You know what I mean? They just beat the Ravens. They had another crazy win the week before. They've dragged and scratched and clawed it just feels like now they're gonna run into a real team that knows how to prepare for these games that has their eye on

the prize like i don't think kansas city is gonna come out and be you know surprised by anything pittsburgh does i think kansas city i think you could take a first half chiefs might be good do we have do we have a first is there a first half Chiefs. Might be good. Do we have a first? Is there a first half number even out there yet? It's got to be what? Do you think it's a seven? That's a good question.

I would take Chiefs first half if I was looking at a – if you want to wager in this game. Like this feels very much like Chiefs get out fast. And they've had a lot of halves this year where they don't score in the second half. Or score 3 points, 7 points. Very much feels like the Chiefs could just be like, you know what? We'll come out fast. We boom, boom, boom. We blitz them.

And then here, I have minus 7.5. That hook is going to be brutal. You can't buy half points in half lines, can you? I'd buy half point in this one. Interesting. I have 7.5 minus 105.

I could go to minus 115 to buy half a point, I would. Yeah. It's funny. I actually could see the Steelers running on fumes and scoring on their first drive and everyone being like, oh, the Steelers, they fumes and scoring on their first drive. And everyone being like, oh, the Steelers, they're back. And then losing 50-7. I could see something like that.

I'm pretty sure that the Chiefs have the most points this season on the first drive. They score a lot in the early games. The second half scoring is not good Mike Tomlin interestingly not great against the spread in the postseason that he's six seven and two he's in Kansas City with Mahomes

has been great they're five and three against the spread with Mahomes yeah I don't know I would i think i would still i would be okay laying the 12 and a half i just don't see what pittsburgh can do um to keep this one close if everything shakes out right respect to tomlin respect to rothlisberger but i kind of feel like they're just kind of happy to be there it's a tough place to play right like going into that place like if they're down 20 points. With Mahomes, yeah.

I don't think this is a backdoor. Like I don't think, you know. Like if Roethlisberger's getting his ass kicked and they're down 20, like they're not going to put him out there. No, certainly not a backdoor cover here. No chance. Yeah. Last time, remember, the Chiefs were up 30 to nothing in the third

and then just took their foot off the pedal. Yeah. All right. So I would lean KC up 30 to nothing in the third and then just took their foot off the pedal yeah all right so i i would lean kc another great one in the t's i actually did with my uh free deposit i did a three leg three three leg uh six and a half i think t's to get the bangles to um i think i have the bangles pick the Bucks minus two and a half. And this game I took down to under a touchdown. So that one feels, if you want to follow me there, that feels like a good one. Last game, Monday night, which is interesting.

It's probably the most confusing game of the weekend. The Cardinals are going against the Rams. Seeing three and a half here on the book we use for our rundown. Interesting game here. I feel like no one really knows what to do here. Yeah, this is one of those where you just stay away. Just run from this game as fast as possible. The only wager I like in this game

is Matt Stafford over interceptions. Whatever it is, just take the over. Can't go wrong with Matt Goff throwing picks. You have a Rams team who's won, what, four in a row to the loss of the Niners? And that second half

was atrocious, right? They just turnovers, got beat up in the trenches, and looked terrible. You have a Cardinals team that's three and seven in their last 10 games, Matt. Three and seven.

They've limped to the finish line. They just had a chance to win the NF the nfc west by being the seahawks who are out of the playoffs it got slacked by the seahawks at home yep like there's no play for me in this game i i i would not play this game it's my least favorite one of the weekend i could give you i could rank one through five this would be six by far matt i have no idea what to do in this game. What do you think? Interesting.

I'm going to give the people an opinion because that's what they hit play for, Jeff. I'm going to say that the Rams cover this one. I actually, getting it a three and a half is nice. I think they come to us for just our honest opinion about stuff. I just don't. They come to you for that. They come to me for something because they don't know who the hell I am. The Rams have covered eight of their last 10 against the Cardinals.

Their non-cover was earlier this year, and they pushed the other. The Cardinals, in the last month, you already talked about the Seattle game. They could have won the division. They won it to Alice. Okay. They lost at home to the Colts. They lost on the road to Detroit by 20, and they lost at home to the Rams. They are just in a tailspin. The Rams, meanwhile, obviously last week, not a good look for them.

I like them to bounce back after that. I think that Shanahan has kind of dominated McVay in their matchups. The inverse is true. McVay has dominated Kingsbury in their matchups. The other way, the inverse is true. McVay has dominated Kingsbury in their matchups. I've mentioned this stat a few times, that 67% of teams favored by less than a touchdown,

or sorry, underdogs of less than a touchdown cover 67% of the time. I'd pick two where I thought they would cover. This is the third, so it's going to split out evenly. I think the Rams cover this game because of the coaching and the fact that they're healthier and at home look i definitely trust the coaching of of sean mcveigh more than i do of cliff kingsbury you guys know that very well by now um i'm i'm all over that so i'm with you there i think if i were to choose a side it would be the rams and that's the best way to go here but I just I have trouble with

these two teams a lot man just I just do it's hard with these these teams are just so erratic sometimes um I could see a uh again I don't know what Matt Stafford interception prop is going to be that feels like a great prop. Doesn't it? It does. I just think that... They're not going to be up on Wednesday. I just kind of feel like this is a good... Like this is one where we just might need to look at each other and just say like,

can we just take Sean McVay over Cliff Kingsbury in the playoffs? Oh, 100%. Totally we could, yeah. I mean, that's a... It could be that simple, right? Just take the better coach in the situation who's been here before. Kingsbury's never been here before. Yeah, and I feel like the Rams tend to win.

Maybe I don't have this in front of me. I'm going to try to quickly look. I feel like the Rams tend to win their first game, and I think McVay is 500 in the playoffs, so let's see. Yeah, well, I don't know. I just feel like these two teams are kind of lopsided without Hopkins. Yeah, we'll find out, obviously, on Monday. So the reason they put this game Monday is because it's better than the 4-5 Bengals-Raiders game,

and the winner of this can play Sunday, right? Because you already have the schedule set. You know they're the last game. You know who they're going to play. That game can be Sunday. So you can give them six days of rest. They don't have to play in a short week. What's your favorite? So my favorite of the weekend

is probably Tampa. I like to rank them. It's like Tampa, probably the Patriots, the Raiders, Chiefs. Just on sides. I think we agree. Tampa and Patriots, the Raiders, Chiefs. Just on sides. I think we agree Tampa and Patriots feel right.

I really like the – I think a three-leg teaser is probably the thing I feel next best about. I think the Bengals win, and I think that getting the Chiefs and the Bucs down is a really nice way to play that because I think the others are toss-ups. I actually think you could put the Niners plus nine into that too. Yeah. You could put the Niners plus nine in there. I think that I like the Rams next. I either like bangles or Rams next. I just think that the bangles are,

I don't know. I could see the bangles blowing that way. You're high on the bangles, man. You've been high on them all year. They just like teams that can just score constantly are just tough. They haven't done that as much this season as you think. They seem to do it in the big spots and then have a letdown.

I just don't see them losing this one at home. And the Raiders, I mean, God love them if they're able to pull this one out. But after last week, it just doesn't feel like they should have a lot of steam left. I know you're not on our show Monday or Tuesday, but we haven't talked about next week. Are we doing a show Monday and then a show Tuesday? Stay tuned, everybody, because I don't know. We've probably figured this out beforehand. We've done a lot of behind the curtain on air today.

We didn't even mention that Jeff left the show in the middle of it to do an interview i totally i i don't know what like we've been doing this we've been recording this show at the same time every week except i think last week we moved it right because we did it last week and i just was like someone asked me to do a radio interview today i was like sure 325 eastern great just right in the middle of it i just i'm so unprofessional so unprofessional not at all it's your show. You can do whatever you want. I guess so. But I got to pick my kids up now.

I got gymnastics in an hour. Not me, gymnastics. That would be unfortunate. My daughter has gymnastics. And so, I will. Hard to disagree.

I love to see that. Adieu. Have a great wildcard weekend. Let me know what you're wagering at Jeff Schwartz at MM410. Power by the Varsity Podcast Network. Send a rating, review. Appreciate your comments. And we'll talk to you guys next week. Take care,

everybody.