Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Conference Championship Game Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 13

Episode Date: December 2, 2021

Geoff is joined by Matt to share their picks on all of the power five conference championship games, plus predictions for Houston at Cincinnati, App State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, and Utah State’s clash with San Diego State and the People’s Heisman, Matt Araiza.Then Geoff and Matt take a look at the lines for every game lined up for week 13 of the NFL season and give you their five best bets. Geoff and Matt are a few games below .500, but this week’s picks should be the start of the hot streak they need to get back on track.Geoff wants to hear your perfect plays and baddest beats from the 2021 CFB season, so comment your stories on the episode or DM them to @geoffschwartz on Twitter for a chance to be featured in a mailbag segment at the end of the season. Remember to rate and subscribe!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, December 2nd. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz with Smarty. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. It is our weekend wagering preview. We'll take you through a bunch of conference championship games. Eight of them. I got eight of them we'll talk about. Plus we'll talk about the NFL slate. Two and three last week. I believe we're 26 and 34. We've corrected that number. I finished my Pac-12 season 31 and 12. So combine those, you're 55%. And that's winning. It's winning wagering in football, which is hard to do. So Matt,

your Washington football team is in the playoffs as we talk. Let's go. You're sucked back in. What could go wrong? Absolutely nothing. You're sucked back in. What could go wrong? Absolutely nothing. You're sucked back in. And how are you, buddy? I'm good, man. Yeah, I was, as Hank, our producer, knows, fellow Washington fan, on the edge of our seat.

It felt like the game was in hand the whole game, and then somehow it wasn't. But for now, I'm going to enjoy. This season's already a win, okay? Imagine a scenario where you you tell me preseason hey you're gonna lose ryan fitzpatrick in the first quarter of the first game you're gonna lose chase young you're gonna lose montez sweat you're gonna lose all your key players but you're gonna be in the playoffs in week 13 of course i would have taken that let's go the problem is that you're not bad enough to get a quarterback.

What are you going to do at the offseason with quarterbacks? We'll get to Washington in just a second. We obviously, since we did our college show and our NFL show, we've had Lincoln Riley to USC, Brian Kelly to LSU. The money is flowing to these universities. There'll be some other extensions done. Maybe Luke Fickle will go to Notre Dame. I mean, there's a lot happening in college football.

Urban Meyer? What? Maybe Urban Meyer to Notre Dame? What do we think? I think Urban's going to... Notre Dame's not hiring Urban Meyer after videos have surfaced. I don't see a strong Catholic school hiring Urban Meyer. So there's

just a lot going on in college football. Let's start with these conference championship games. We'll go through a lot of them because I've looked at them again. I mean, I didn't take anything outside the Pac-12 with a grain of salt here, but I feel pretty comfortable in a lot of these. So the first game is Friday. It's Oregon-Utah. They play in Vegas.

This game opened about three down to two and a half. Most people that I've talked to put this game in a pick-em, so you're getting a little bit of points here with Oregon. When you have a rematch, remember this game was two weeks ago, and I made a strong case for Oregon to win that game. They got blown out. But remember, in a rematch, the onus is

on the losing team to change what they did, right? And Utah had a very specific way to stop Oregon, which is they forced the ball out of the running back's hands, into the quarterback, and running the ball wide. Oregon knows that now, right? So how do they adjust to that? They just

should hand the ball off and find ways to force handoffs, because Utah doesn't want Oregon to run the ball right at them. But the question obviously becomes, does Utah change what they do, right? Does Utah change up now? But it worked. You went 38-7 the first time. Why would you change? Offensively, Utah was just good on third down.

I mean, they brought out the worst in Oregon. Oregon missed 11 tackles. Utah was 11-14 on third down. Oh, geez. Not good for Oregon's defense. But Oregon beats Oregon State. They actually covered for the first time this season at home, did Oregon. And as soon as the game ended, they talked about beating Utah.

That's what their focus is. And I think they do come back and do that. They're more talented. They're injured. That's a problem. They've had 43 or 44 guys start the season, Matt. Pretty incredible. But I think they win this game.

So I'll take Oregon plus the points. Any thoughts on this one? Well, this is your onion hanger. You rarely bet on Oregon. It's the Pac-12 championship. I'm going to listen to you. I really do. Oregon, third straight Pac-12 championship.

Yep. So they've got some experience in this big spot. I mean, I'll listen to you. I mean, it's interesting. Their season's going kind of up and down. But, I mean, who am I to dispute your Pac-12 picks? Next up, we'll go to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma State playing for probably a right to be in the country bowl playoff.

Who would have thought? Oklahoma State, they're 11-1. Unbelievable. Their only loss this season was at Iowa State. Had one game against Texas where they got pretty lucky to come back in that game. But pretty much since then, their defense has been like that. Their last five games, they've allowed five points, excuse me, three points, three points, 17-0.

And Oklahoma scored 33 points in that game. But I think nine of those were on defense and safety, right? I believe nine of those points were not even associated to their defense. Baylor has some quarterback concerns with who's healthy right now. And I think Oklahoma State's just a better football team. They're more grounded. They're third in points per drive on defense. They eliminate explosive plays on defense.

And Baylor, especially with a backup quarterback, and they only lost this game by 10 or more in the season, I just don't think Baylor can score enough points here. I'll take Oklahoma State minus the 5.5. Oklahoma State will probably be a playoff team. And, by the way, really good against the spread this year, 9-1-1. Our buddy Dan Rubenstein has a theory that kind of holds water sometimes in college football where the teams that do well against the spread this year,

it's because they were poor last year and people just never adjusted the spread for them this season. Like Michigan's one of them. We'll get to Michigan in a second. Where they just never kind of caught up to them being good this season. It was like Oklahoma State here. Kind of no one caught up to them being good this season. So give me Oklahoma State here minus the 5.5.

Yeah, that's interesting. Not having done a ton of prep for this game that this felt a little bit low to me uh given what is at stake for oklahoma state here um it's the games in dallas but it's not it's it's not going to be like a heavy baylor crowd right like it's going to be split at best so i i'm with you i think this is a little bit of a to get them under a touchdown yeah i'm i'm with you here on that one, of course. So MAAC Championship, Utah State, San Diego State. The punt god for San Diego State should win the Heisman.

Guys, this game is a lot. It's off by a lot. So a friend of ours, Bill Conley, who does the SP Plus Index for ESPN now, but he's got his own numbers. And his numbers each week are typically what Vegas kind of ends up around. I'm not saying that he drives the number, but it's the same with everyone else, right? Power rankings, predictive stats and whatnot. He has this game as almost a 14-point Utah margin of victory.

The line's at five right now. point Utah margin of victory. The line's at five right now. Utah State, who they're playing, has really played nobody, and they just lost to Wyoming 44-17 at home two weeks ago. Their wins are New Mexico, San Jose

State, New Mexico State, Hawaii, UNLV, who's won two games in the last two years, in their last seven games. It's just like they're not that good. They're ranked 80th in overall efficiency. San Diego State's 39th in efficiency. They're ninth on defense.

Now, the problem for them is just offensively, they're just kind of a mess. And last week, they were down to the boys. State 16-3, came back and won 27-16. This game just reeks of like 27 17 somewhere around there even maybe 27 14 kind of where bill conley has this number so give me san jose state here minus the five that feels like a bet i might make myself uh i like that one jeff um let's go to the sunbelt championship that's why you guys come here louisiana lafayette the rage occasions app state so very simply i'm going

with app state here uh and this one is just more of a gut than anything else because louisiana's coach is now the head coach of florida he's coaching this weekend but is he really coaching this weekend because guess what he's doing right now he's calling recruits to recruit for florida he's hiring assistant coaches he's picking out a house his kids are getting ready to move to gainesville He's there. His body is there in Louisiana. Yeah, I'm sure he's game planning. But what's he doing the other hours of the

day? He's getting ready for his Florida job. I think App State, they're favored by two and a half here. This game, I believe, is at Louisiana Lafayette. It's in Louisiana. I just like App State here because Louisiana's coach is just somewhere else he's already getting ready to to coach his new team huh that's interesting it's a

it's a good point i'm i'm uh surprised this isn't higher uh okay app state it is i really hit myself because i'm taking a bunch of uh of favorites in these games but i kind of think these are the way these games uh tend to go the favorites win a lot of favorites in these games, but I kind of think these are the way these games tend to go. The favorites win a lot of these games, except actually, weirdly enough, I think the Pac-12 was one conference that was kind of weird where the favorites don't always win.

But all right. Yep, we're at SEC now. Georgia, Florida. Let's see with Georgia, Florida. Georgia, Alabama. Alabama's getting six and a half points here. Man. This one's tough, Matt, because...

This is insane. Georgia's, here's the problem for Alabama in this game, is that their offensive line is not good this season. And they're playing a Georgia team that might limit them to 10 to 14 points. Like, it might be that bad for Alabama's offense this week. Alabama's offense has not played well recently, right? We saw them have to go to overtime against Auburn after scoring 14 points.

Was it 14 points? 10 points? Whatever it was. It was 10 points of regulation, right? Something like that? 14 points? Yeah, something like that. They scored 20 against LSU a month ago.

I am just concerned about their offense, dude. I don't think they're going to score more than 14, 17 points. Georgia's offense. Now, Georgia's played nobody, right? They've played almost nobody. Boundless defense can still play. I don't know who's going to block Will Anderson for Georgia. But man, I really lean Georgia here. Man.

Because I don't think Alabama's offense is going to score. They are not the offense that they have been the last couple of seasons under Saban. It's a different offensive line, a different offense. Counterpoint, and I'm certainly not as studied in college football as you. You're getting Nick Saban plus six and a half. The last time Alabama was an underdog was 2015 on Halloween. That was 92 games ago. It was against Georgia, by the way.

Alabama won 38 10 if alabama loses this like there's a chance they missed the playoff right like if they lose this game they're not gonna be the playoffs that's correct right so this is this is everything for them where georgia can sort of look ahead and say well if we lose this one like we're probably still getting in right like i i just think that this is a rare opportunity to take bama and uh i don't know if it's going to be such a low scoring game plus six and a half just feels like a steal 17 10 though or like 2010 that's that's what i worry about 2010 yeah i mean how about the under by the way it's like the total's at 49.5, which feels kind of high. The under feels like a far better choice here. All right, so we like the under.

I think you just got to take Bama as a dog, just without thinking that hard about it. I'm not thinking that hard about it, so of course I'm going to say that. Here's the one game where I might take a dog. Houston plus 10.5 at Cincinnati. It's tough because Houston's won 11 games in a row. They lost week one. They've won 11 games since then.

But Cincinnati, when in big games this year, has dominated. They have played really, really well. Notre Dame, SMU mostly for those two games. So I lean Houston here because I think they're a little undervalued with their production and their ability to get off the field on defense. But, man, I'm just concerned about it. I'm just concerned about taking all favorites here. I'm trying to find a way to take an underdog.

I feel like Houston is one of those spots where I can do that. I don't feel great about it, but I'll take Houston here at plus the 11 or plus the 10.5. I like that. I just, in my head head i assumed that the sec championship was going to be the last game we talked about we hit that mighty crescendo then we hit the houston cincinnati game i wasn't even paying attention because i was putting my bet in on san diego state why don't you take us to the acc from here so i i if you're looking at which

wages i like the most this weekend um I like San Diego State a lot. I like Pittsburgh a lot coming up right now. Pittsburgh is – they're here in Charlotte against Wake Forest in the ACC Championship game. Wake Forest is a very good offense, but here's the concern for Wake, if you're backing Wake in this game. They are god-awful on defense. They're 83rd points per drive. They're 116th in explosive plays.

They're 113th in rushing success rate on defense. It's all defense. Now, offensively, they're 7th in the country in points per drive. Score a ton of points. But Pitt is a well-rounded football team. They're ranked 7th in offense and 33rd on defense. They're 18th in points per drive on defense. They're 9th in points per drive on offense.

I get a more well--rounded team a field lane a field goal like I am all on Pitt here minus the three yeah Wake Forest can score don't get me wrong but this game screams like 45 38 like it's going to be tough you're gonna have to sweat this out maybe a little bit the end as Wake is starting to come back but Pittsburgh's defense gets off the field Wake's defense does not get off the field. That's the big difference in this game. Give me Pittsburgh. I like it. Big spot for a quarterback trying to get in the top 10 here.

I'm with you. I like that. All right, let's get to the last one. Iowa, Michigan. I will be in Indianapolis doing a Fox watch party. Oh, cool. Yeah, I'll be there doing a Fox watch party. All right, so Michigan's here by 10 and a half here.

I'm going with the Wolverines, and I'll explain why that is. So I get the inclination to say, hey, look, they just won a big game. They're going to be flat this week. They won the big game by dominating the trenches. You typically are not flat the next week doing that, right? It wasn't like a trick-em game, right? They won the big game by dominating the trenches. You typically are not flat the next week doing that, right? It wasn't like a trick-em game, right? They won a bunch of trick plays.

There weren't referee errors. It was a physical domination playing the style of football that Michigan wants to play. That's a huge element here. Iowa got in this game. They backed in because Minnesota beat Wisconsin to win one of the 100 trophies the Big Ten plays for. But here's the problem in this game, they backed in because Minnesota beat Wisconsin to win one of the 100 trophies the Big Ten plays for. But here's the problem in this game.

Michigan has the two best defensive ends in the country. Well, the pair of defensive ends. Kayvon Timberlake and Oregon's pretty good. Iowa's pressure rate for their offensive line is 121st in the country. They're 99th in rushing the ball. They're 105th in the country

in explosive plays. Iowa's offense cannot move the ball. And they will not move the ball against Michigan. While I think Iowa's defense is better than Ohio State, Michigan will grind them down, will wear them down. This is like 31-13, dude.

It's just going to be a methodical game by Michigan where Iowa, we've seen all season going to be a methodical game by Michigan, where Iowa, we've seen all season, has got to force turnovers. Remember, Iowa got lost to Purdue, 24-7, followed by losing to Wisconsin. Then last weekend, they were down 21-9 in the fourth

quarter against Nebraska. And they had to score like 19 points in the fourth quarter to come back and win that game. So, I like Michigan to recover 10-1. It's a lot of points. get it uh but there's also a way to to put these in my kind of like a maybe a money line parlay right you put michigan and pitt and cincinnati and you know and and throw san jose state in there and oklahoma like there's a way to make money i think without having to bet all these spreads yeah that, that's fun. Interesting. I think that's a real credit to Harbaugh that you're willing to take him off

of the biggest win of his college career. Interesting. All right, well, I'm putting my bets in. I've got a few. I really am sold on San Diego State and App State. And I think I'm going to go against you on Bama. But is it time to go to the NFL? It is, yeah.

All right, let's do it. All right, Jeff, you mentioned our record. We're eight games under.500, which means we can turn that around in just two weeks' time if we get hot. Let's start with the Thursday night game, which as of tape time, which is Wednesday afternoon, so you'll hear this. Maybe you'll know more about what's going to happen tonight.

The Cowboys are at the Saints. Looks like Taysom Hill. Looks like Dan Quinn is going to coach. What do we think? Dude. The answer is the Saints. I think it might be the Saints. And it's one of my favorite of the weekend.

Really? Yeah. Interesting. Okay. Here's why. here's why okay so you know I was big on Dallas um last weekend and I got burned by them it's not how I wish it was not because of this but and it's really not Dallas is kind of playing bad football right now and this is the first time all year you're gonna have everyone healthy which is important too like this is the first time all year they're having like they're starting their three best offensive linemen the three best wide receivers and dak dak all playing in the same game but their coaching staff's not there because of covid it's just kind of another thing right like amari cooper is activated but like we've seen players come back from covid a little bit shaking the first game especially since they said he had symptoms as well right yeah And their rushing defense is 18th in the NFL.

It's really hard to play a Taysom Hill-led offense in the first start because it's all that trick-em stuff. It's a quarterback power, quarterback read, the play-action pass off of that stuff. And the Saints are still a prideful team. They've lost three in a row. They've got to win a state in the playoff hunt.

They'll get kind of a boost from Taysom being back, in my opinion, kind of running a different style offense. That's not what Simeon's doing. They got to win a state in the playoff hunt. They'll get kind of a boost from Taysom being back, in my opinion, kind of running a different style offense. That's not what Simeon's doing. They have some injuries up front that are worrisome with Ramchick probably not playing. Kamara, I don't know if he's playing. I don't think he's playing as well. But I like Saints here.

What, plus four and a half right now? Yep, plus four and a half. It's really interesting because it feels like the public is just totally out on the Saints, right? Like, I just feel like the Saints, everyone talked themselves into Sean Payton off a loss for like the last couple of weeks. And this line keeps kind of moving. It keeps kind of holding despite all the money coming in on Dallas. Sean Payton, we've talked about him off a loss, how he's one of the best. They've lost four straight.

So it's just a matter of time before he regresses to the mean and gets a W here. I'm with you. I wasn't expecting that this would be one of our five, but I think the Taysom Hill point is right. I mean, I'm good. How do you prep for him? I'm good for doing it now. Like, I'm missing. Yeah, this is Trevor Simeon.

No chance. The problem is, man, is that we kind of have an idea of what we're doing this week. And it's going to be, I'm telling you guys right now, you're not going to enjoy any of these picks. Yeah, it's not going to be. I can at least enjoy betting on Sean Payne for once at home. Like, we're about to get, I'm telling you guys right now, this is going to be a miserable week. And a miserable week and this is the week we go five and oh man like this the week you just do it yeah so the public just had their best month ever and at the books or i'm sorry the worst month ever at the books the the they had such a hot start to the season and then the books got all their

money back so i feel like now is the is the chance for us to pounce pounce as everyone sort of recalibrates. I feel like the public is a little disoriented, and they're going to like Dallas with the extra rest against the New Orleans team that looks a little dilapidated. But I'm with you. Let's do it. Let's do it. What's up next, buddy? Oh, Giants at Dolphins. This current spread is four and a half.

We don't know what's going on with Daniel Jones, so we should should probably save some time here right unless do you like the giants uh i do not no i actually think the dolphins would be a play here if daniel jones is not playing yeah if that's that's for sure uh if daniel jones is playing i kind of would like the giants here but we're not touching that they're much better covering on the road right we've talked about this a lot yeah much better uh dolphins are one, right? We've talked about this a lot. Much better. Dolphins are one of those teams that everyone's very excited to make bets for. Oh, yeah. They're back.

They're not that far apart. They're back. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. All right. AFC South battle. Colts at Texans. Colts are eight and a half point favorites.

I'm sorry, Jeff. I know. We have to do it. know we do um so pretty interesting by the way um do you know whose defense is eighth in total dvoa in the nfl right now i would guess it's the colts texas these two teams that's crazy texas yeah huh the texans are now offensively they're a mess but mean, divisional dog at home. This is like right up our alley, right?

All the money is going to be on Indy this week. I mean, I see right now, percent of the money, 93% of the money. It's Andy. I can't make a case for Houston other than their defense is eighth. That's not a bad one.

Here's some, here's some for you, Jeff. The Colts are going into their bye next week. Week 14 bye. This is just a game. They're coming off of this crazy loss against Tampa that everyone watched. So everyone's going to say, oh, the Colts, they're good.

Jonathan Taylor is going to bounce back because he didn't really do a ton last week. Let's ride the Colts. Houston is a divisional game you mentioned, but Houston's a different team at home. They're four and one against the spread at home this year. They're two and four on the road. The Colts just need to win, right? They don't need to blow out here. They don't need to make a statement. Their statement was last week. They're just going to grind this one out. I think they're not going to go out and try to put up 50. And you mentioned it. 93% of the money on a road favorite. You always want to take the other side in that.

Let's take the Texans. I feel like we do it every week. I had this, by the way, at nine, eight and a half. I see most of it's at nine now. So we're going to take nine. Plus nine. Let's go. That's going to keep going too, I feel like.

So if you're listening and you see this nine, nine and a half, do it. All right. Texans and Saints. Oh boy. It sounds good. And then we look back we go oh my god what have we done uh speaking of what have we done are we we've we've bet on the lions quite a bit uh are we going to do it again they're plus seven against the vikings at home yeah we have to right no dalvin cook for the vikings and he's kind of what they do now they

they had an embarrassing loss. I get that. Not an embarrassing loss, but a loss that they just didn't play very well, and Cousins didn't play very well. Swift is not playing for the Lions. But all the money's on Minnesota. They're 8-1 against the spread, and their last 9 is a favorite. Like, they're 7 points down. They're 1-8 as a favorite. Not 8-1. Oh, sorry.

1-8. 1-8, yeah. Again, I can't give you a great reason to take the lines here other than this is how you win kind of ugly wagers. You just have to suck it up and take a home divisional dog getting a touchdown. Yep, I think you do. I'll tell you what. If the Vikings cover and if the colts cover and the tampa bay

bucks cover in a few minutes like we we get to i mean fuck it like it i don't want to tell you i don't know what to tell you if it happens it happens but like we can't wager on on on road division dogs like that's a that's a terrible wager. That's right. Yep. I'm with you. I think you got to take, I, I, I would sprinkle on the money line here. There's a bunch of candidates this week. I'm tired of doing the lines of the money line though. Like that's just, but dude, like if, could you see anyone who is the quarterback who could blow this, who could, who could ruin the lions on winless season more than Kirk cousins?

Like, can't you see it? Like his heads in his hands with a minute left and he's missing justin jefferson and they're down by six like i i could just totally see it the lions have been very good against the spread the last couple weeks i think they have a pretty good like they play hard um they cover against the nfc north they've covered five of their last seven i don't think the Swift thing matters as much as the Cook thing because Jamal Williams has basically just slid into that role. I think the Lions are not a bad take. It's just miserable betting all these bad teams.

I know, but you just have to do it. Well, can we not bet on the next bad team? The Eagles are at the Jets. The Jets are plus six and a half. We could not bet on the Jets. How about that? Thank God, because we don't know if Jalen Hurts is playing or not. We think so.

I'm never betting on Zach Wilson. No chance, right? Can we just save time here? We could skip that. Sure. Yes. All right. Oh boy. We're going to have to dig in here. It's the Cardinals at the Bears. The Cardinals are seven and a half point favorites in Chicago.

bears the cardinals are seven and a half point favorites uh in chicago i mean did you did you even consider taking the bears here no i didn't arizona's off a buy and they're healthier kingsbury owen two off a buy in his NFL career. The Bears just beat... The Bears are just a freaking terrible... They're a dumpster fire. Which is funny because we've just been on the Lions. Yeah. Vikings are slightly less scary than the Cardinals. I know. I know.

I mean, as of right now, too, the problem is, as of recording this, is what Wednesdays we do, we just don't know if Murray's going to play yet. That's the problem. And we don't know if Fields is playing either. so let me just stay away from this game for now but i i could see this game being like a four touchdown win for the cardinals like something crazy like that but i just we can't do that right now because we don't know who's playing who's not playing yeah the cardinals oddly have not been a road favorite all that much this season. I think just once they covered that.

Kingsbury, I mentioned, 0-2 straight up off a bye in his NFL career. The Cardinals' defense has been given a lot of credit this year. They're the third worst defense against the run in terms of yards per play. So I could see this one being like an outdoor cold grind it out. Murray's not a hundred percent, you know, Hopkins plays, but he's not a hundred percent yet.

Seven and a half. It's just a weird number. I think the bears are definitely, and again, 97% of the money on Arizona. That's always when you want to look at the other side as a road favorite. So I, I I'm intrigued by this one, but without the quarterback certainty,

I can't imagine it's in our top five. Yeah it's it can't be in our top five all right i do think that's a one to bookmark though i have a feeling sunday we'll be texting about that chargers at bangles what a fun game this one will be i feel like we'll learn something out of it the line is just three right now um do you have an instinct for either side um i have instinct for taking um for taking joe mixon's over rushing total prop which is not posted now that to me feels like the best wager in this game there's something about the bangles where you look at them and you say hey every time we kind of do this thing where we say, hey, they're really good. You should care about them. They lose to the Jets and Browns.

You know what I mean? That's the problem for me with them right now. The Chargers this year have just been so up and down. I don't know what we're getting from them each week anymore. We used to know, but they've won one loss. The last five games, loss, win, loss, win, loss. Like, I don't know. I don't know what we're getting from them.

So I would take Joe Mixon's over rushing total in this game, but I would not go much further than that. What do you think? Yeah, I liked this at the Chargers plus three and a half. I think that the Chargers just need this one more generally. Like, they're coming off of, you know, you've mentioned they've been sort of streaky, but the Bengals are coming off this season sweep of Pittsburgh,

which is a big deal for them to have a blowout win. The Bengals already aren't great. They've only won three of their last 11 against the spread after a straight up win. So they usually will come really high. Then the public will get behind them and then they'll blow it. The Chargers are two and one going west to east this year. So i don't think that's a big concern but is that even a thing anymore like that's not no longer a thing right like that doesn't teams routinely cover those games now yeah i think it is i feel like it's a problem with younger coaches you would think

right but brandon staley it's obviously it's not been affected by it um i don't know i if it's three and a half i like the chargers maybe keep an eye out for that at your books but i i think this is a pass for us yeah i think i'm i'm with you there god i wish this one was a pass for us the bucks are laying 11 in atlanta um we've teased this one a bunch i mean jeff i i just think that this is one that you just have to do and take Atlanta, right? You do because for as bad as Atlanta is in their efficiency numbers this season, and there are definitely times when this is just going to bite us in the ass, they've won football games.

Like, they're 5-6. Now, they've beaten really no one good. Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars. But for the most part this season, the Bucs have not looked great on the road. The second half of that game against Indy was the best they looked on the road in quite a while. But that's a lot of points, man. They won that game by seven. This is 11 points right now.

11. Oddly, this is the worst in terms of against the spread. This is the worst road team against the spread and the worst home team against the spread this year. The Bucs have covered one of their road games. The Falcons have not covered at home yet, which is insane. I think you're right. Last week, the Bucs kind of needed a miracle. They got the best game of Lenny Fournette's life to beat the Colts.

This offense, two key players. Cordero Patterson makes the Falcons team go. I can't believe that's a thing that we're talking about, but it's true. And meanwhile, the Bucs without Antonio Brown. They're 5-1 with him this season. They're 3-2 without him. And the teams they've played are the bears Washington, who they lost to the saints with Simeon,

who they lost to, and they beat the giants and Colts. So I kind of think that, that he matters more to them. He was the most targeted receiver when he went out. I think it matters more than people might realize. So he's probably not playing this week from what we know on Wednesday, with all that said,

11 points, huge number divisional game. I think you got to take the Falcons. I think you have to do too. I know on Wednesday. With all that said, 11 points, huge number, divisional game. I think you got to take the Falcons. I think you have to do two. I know Hank put in this. Hank, isn't our record this season really good? Like the best thing we do is take divisional games. I think it is.

I think that's like really good. Because that's typically what a good wager is, right? Divisional games. Yeah, but they're going to be close. Yeah. All right. And also, we haven't taken the Bucs or bet against them all season. This is our first attempt at that. Our first time. Yeah, let's see how it goes. All right. And also, we haven't taken the Bucs or bet against them all season. This is our first attempt at that.

Our first time. Yeah, let's see how it goes. All right. Well. God. It's real stinkers, Jeff. Let's move it along here. I told you guys.

I warned you guys. Yeah. Well, hopefully this is how you win some money. The 4-0-5 game Sunday. The Jags are at the Rams. The 12-1-1 is what we're getting now. I don't think you can take the Rams minus 12.5 against anyone right now. No, you definitely cannot.

But you can't take the Jags, obviously. The Rams, you know, Stafford's just not playing as well. He's hurt. He's beat up. Throwing it out. Pick six in three straight weekends. But there's no way I'm trusting jackson on the road here either um the rams are disappointing man they've really slowed down there's numbers out

that show that second half of season strong of his offense just kind of get figured out and he's got to have a second pitch gotta have a change up and a curveball so we'll see how he just goes oh i'm not betting on this weekend yeah this could be the like oh look the rams are back they put up 60 i could see that but i i'm not i'm not betting on it this weekend. Yeah, this could be the like, oh, look, the Rams are back. They put up 60. I could see that, but I'm not willing to put my hard-earned dollars on it. I don't know, man. It feels unlikely, but we'll see. Speaking of unlikely, the seventh seed in the NFC Washington football team is going to Vegas.

The Raiders are laying two and a half. Man, this just feels like a trap, and I just don't know which side. Well, Vegas is getting all the money in this game. Yeah. I think the play would be taking Washington. Plus two and a half. Yeah. I don't feel great about it.

But the numbers here are pretty interesting. I hate to put these in here, right? They're seven and two against the spread Washington is. And their last nine games following a straight-up win they're a team that gets momentum they're like yeah yeah they're such a tricky team to sort of figure out i mean as someone who's who has watched a fair amount of them i this is this is like a good sort of like overall look at sports betting here because Washington wins this game in primetime against Seattle, who I think a lot of people liked last week. This line was two and a half going into Monday. It didn't move, which is just really strange.

Like you'd think it would adjust a little bit after a win that everyone watched, but it didn't. after a win that everyone watched. But it didn't. And I think that's because the books want to keep taking money on the Raiders here, and they know that if they set it at three, that everyone's going to jump on Washington. So I feel like they're just kind of hanging around here, daring you to take Washington. I don't know.

This feels like a little bit of a coin flip. The Raiders, you never know what you're going to get out of that. We can stay away from this. But I'm saying that I would take Washingtonhington here but that probably is a sucker play to your point i can't tell what what the sucker side is um let's stay away from it then all right jeff let's move to a really good game this weekend uh 425 sunday baltimore at pittsburgh uh the ravens are four and a half point road favorites in Pittsburgh. Two teams that are really tough to figure out every week.

I see what's happening. You look defeated and miserable because you know I'm going to tell us that we have to take Pittsburgh here. Yeah. I mean, I think with Baltimore is the reason why their DVOA is 13th is because of special teams. They're first. And that's Justin Tucker, right?

Their DVOA is 17 on offense and 18 on defense. And they are just so up and down and mostly down-ish now because everyone's hurt. Everyone's hurt. And Lamar just can't keep doing this by himself. He threw some bad interceptions. I get that. But they've almost increasingly kind of played worse each week

as the injuries continue to pile up for them. Their defense is not what it has been in the past. And, yes, the Steelers are a shell of themselves. They're cooked. But it's also a divisional game. They just got embarrassed last week. I think the answer is the Steelers here. Dude, this is a throw out the numbers,

throw out everything we've seen. You have to take the Steelers here. Off of a blowout loss, the Ravens haven't scored more than 16 points since week nine. It's not like they're blowing teams out. but that doesn't matter because Mike Tomlin no one is better as a home dog covers 81 percent of the time as a home dog no way coach which is by far the best in the league not even close I mean this is just a time where you just take a great coach that always hits in this spot against for it's for their season by the way way. If they lose this game, like the season is done,

the Ben Roethlisberger stuff starts. If they win this one against their biggest rival, then their season sort of matters. Their fans will kind of get off their backs for a few weeks. This is just an automatic Ritzburg spot, I think. I'm with you. I can't argue that. I can't argue against that.

I think you're exactly right here. You take a veteran-embarrassed team off a bad loss against a divisional rival who they hate at home. I'm with you. Yeah, let's do it. I feel great about that. All right, let's move to another divisional game, the Seahawks. God, plus three and a half against the 49ers.

No, no. We just can't do this one, Matt. No, I refuse. The Seahawks look broken, and we can't bet on them here in this. We're not betting on the Niners three and a half, minus three and a half on the road either. Screw that. We've been beating too many times on hooks.

Seattle has got to figure out after the season, is it Russell Wilson or Pete Carroll? Who are we keeping? Because we're not keeping both. Can't keep both. Can't keep neither? Is that an option? That's an option as well you keep neither and just kind of blow it all up but they don't have a first round pick that goes to the jets right now the jets have two first have two top 10 picks giants have two top 10 picks and what

the eagles have two top 10 picks is that how it works because they have the dolphins pick as well pretty wild man i think we're staying away from this game yeah i think so too um at some point the seahawks are going to get right and and win game, but I'm not going to play them until I see a little bit more of that happen. Sunday night should be a fun one. The Chiefs off a bye are hosting the Broncos plus 10. This is like the battle of the trends. Teddy as a dog versus Reed off a bye. This feels like a pretty high line for a Denver team.

It's kind of good. But I don't know. Teddy is a little banged up. So, I don't know. Do you want to play this one? Andy Reed is 19-3 off a bye. Straight up, yes, which obviously doesn't help us in this game. It's 10 points.

It's just too many. And the Chiefs offense, as good as we've talked about them returning, not as good. Like, it's just, I think we just, 10 is too many points. I think we just stay away from this game. I think the Chiefs could win this game by 10 or more. Defense is playing much better, of course. I don't trust really Teddy on the road.

But, Jesus, 10 points is a lot, man, in this game, I feel like. Yeah, it feels overinflated to the chiefs but um i don't i'm not taking broncos here and betting against speed off no thank you um read only four and three against the spread off and by with my homes that can't be yeah because mom's only been there for oh i guess playoffs maybe that includes um all right moving on to the monday night game man best game of the week on monday night it's rare that we get to say that uh pats at the bills we're seeing three this opened at two and a half it got it it's it's moved all over opened at three and a half then it got bet down it's moved a bunch we'll say three um what do

you think this is a stay away because unless you want to take the Bills everyone's on New England right now everyone is on New England they're the best team, they're figuring things out Buffalo's struggling a little bit this is I think a spot where

you kind of got to fade the hot Patriots 100% I'm in on the Bills if you are where you kind of got to fade the hot Patriots. A hundred percent. I'm in on the bills if you are. I see minus two and a half right now, by the way. Minus two and a half and minus 115. I'll put a little, I mean, it's obviously a tiny bit more, $5 or more, $100 bet.

I'm good with minus two and a half. I'm down to lay it too. I mean, is this is just like everyone i get it i get why people are saying i mean the patriots are hot everyone wants to do that thing in their head where they're like new england's back like here's our chance but this is buffalo season everyone's down on the bills this was everyone's super bowl pick for the preseason like they can turn this thing around still it's also just hard to go on a win street this long with a rookie quarterback right like at some point the wheels are just going to fall off and everyone's going to just be like oh well of course that was going to happen

why wouldn't it be in like the biggest regular season game in orchard park and quite it feels like in a while right a long time right at least this season yeah um so i i think this is a definite hammer if we can say we're doing two and a half for buffalo i really like it okay so here's what we have right now we have four definitive hold your nose and bet games ready houston plus nine, Detroit plus seven, Atlanta plus 11, and Pittsburgh plus four and a half. All home divisional dogs. I like it. I like it, guys.

I love it. So the question becomes now, do we put New Orleans plus four and a half or Buffalo minus two and a half? I lean Buffalo. Yeah, we're throwing Chicago out at plus seven and a half. Yeah. So New Orleans is out, but Buffalo in is our fifth. Well, you were really hot on New Orleans.

Yeah, but there's still something about like they've lost four in a row. What if Hill's rusty? What if Dallas just plays well? I kind of feel like I know when we're getting from Buffalo and New England in this game. I do too. I do too. Okay.

Four home dogs, divisional dogs, and a fifth home favorite under a field goal. Yeah. In a prime time must-win spot. This is the game the Bills just tend to win. Well, recently. Yeah. Well, yeah. I like it.

I think I'm willing to go with Josh Allen. I'm in. All right. Let's do it. Houston, Detroit, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Buffalo. Good God, what a gross. Y'all are either going to just come back on next week and be like, you know what?

You guys are geniuses. Or screw you guys. We're never listening again. We're never fading all you guys. Whatever you're going to do. But maybe it's the week, Matt. We go from 26-34 to 31-34. It's the week.

This is definitely the week. The underdogs have been covering in a huge clip. I've got the stat here. This is what killed everyone, all the public. 60% of the games in November were covered by underdogs.

23 of those, 23 underdogs pulled outright upsets. Heavily bet primetime favorites went down on a weekly basis. This is per ESPN. So good time to be taking underdogs. I know we're in December, but the trend is hot. Let's ride it. I'm in.

Let's do it. All right, guys. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Hope you guys have a great weekend of wagering. I know I'll be watching you. I know you'll be watching the games. Please leave a comment, a review. It's really important for us. We really appreciate when you when you do that you tweet me at Jeff Schwartz as

well and we'll talk to you guys on Monday have a good one everybody