Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Rivalry Week Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 12

Episode Date: November 25, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back to share their picks for the biggest games of the Thanksgiving weekend, starting with two college football games with massive playoff implications: Ohio State vs Michigan to decide the Big 10 East and Oklahoma at Oklahoma State in what could be a preview of the Big 12 Championship game.Then Geoff and Matt go through every game on the NFL slate for week 12 and pick out the five best bets (9:10). They highlight a few more they’re definitely betting on (Giants vs. Eagles, Patriots vs. Titans) and a few they’re staying away from (Browns at Ravens, WFT vs Seahawks).Remember to rate and comment on the episode for a chance to be featured in a mailbag segment at the end of the season. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday november 25th happy thanksgiving i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz's smart and you are powered by the varsity podcast network welcome to our weekly wagering show where we will talk about our favorite games in college football the nfl and i guess we start with happy thanksgiving matt uh you decided to be extra trendy today and wear a beanie with some headphones and you look super cool talking about football today thanks man uh cool just like the temperature of our hot streak uh as better as on this show this season although we've kind of turned it around a bit lately right i think three straight winning weeks we're now 24 and 31 i am 29 and 10 in pac-12 plays which is just mind-boggling.

We will get to some of my favorite Pac-12 actions. So if you listen to this show and you don't follow Pac-12, that's fine. You don't have to. Just turn it off after like minute eight. Yeah, but you should turn that Oregon game off after minute eight last weekend. You would have felt better about things. True. We have a lot to get to today.

We have three Thursday games today, right, for Thanksgiving. So we'll let you know if we like anything in those games. I actually do like one a lot, which is going to piss Matt off. We'll get to that in just a second. Matt already knows it's one I like. We've talked about it briefly this week, and it's the right play. But we'll get to that in a second. Ohio State, Michigan.

The line right now is Ohio State forever by eight. This is a pretty tough one here because it you know, it's a lot of points. And open about six or five or six. And so you're not getting a lot of value on Ohio State here. However, I think Ohio State's the right play. I really believe in ownage in sports. And when one team has owned a rivalry over someone else, it takes an extraordinary effort for that rivalry to be broken, right?

Like that losing streak to be broken. And Harbaugh has only had one game in his tenure with Ohio State that has been under eight points. And that was an overtime game about three years ago. It was 30-27. Ohio State's offense is the best in the country right now. They're playing very hot. Yes, Michigan's defense is good.

Don't get me wrong. They have an elite defense. They have two great pass rushers. They're not playing the style they played under Don Brown, which is blitz're playing very hot. Yes, Michigan's defense is good. Don't get me wrong. They have an elite defense. They have two great pass rushers. They're not playing the style they played under Don Brown, which is blitz and playing man coverage. But I've yet to see them really slow down Ohio State. And this might not be the offense to do it this year, right? It's hard to slow them down.

You know, we've seen other teams, Nebraska, do it a little bit, and Penn State. But I just, their offense is playing such a high level right now that if you hold them to 35, are you going to score 24? I mean, Michigan's offense blows out and plays really well against bad teams. Ohio State's defense, guys, has done really well, really since Big Ten play started. They've allowed 13, 17, 7, 24, 17.

They allowed 31 to produce 7. Their defense is playing well, too. I don't think Michigan is good enough to overcome this extraordinary effort you need to break a losing streak in a rivalry. I'll take the 8.5 points for

Ohio State here, Matt. Man, I went back and forth on this. This is the biggest Michigan game. I mean, it's been a really long time. This is a huge game every year on this this is the biggest michigan game i mean i it's been it's been a really long time this is a huge game every year but this is the one where it just feels like you know a lot of things are possible if they win this one this is ohio state this is the lowest this is the least they've been favored all season they were favored by 14 and a half against your oregon ducks we know how that turned out i think I would take the plus eight here just because I wouldn't take

Michigan on the money line, but I do think it's going to be close. I think that there's just so much on the line here. Harbaugh knows what this game means. Yeah. I think it's going to be a tight game. Yeah. I mean,

I see they're at home, right. And this is the best team he's had in quite a long time. So I could see it being that way. But if you just needed to wager on this game, that's how I would do it. The other big game this weekend is Bedlam. It's Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State's favored by, I believe, four, four and a half right now. I think Oklahoma State's the right play. We just talked about extraordinary effort needed to change the trajectory of a rivalry. Oklahoma has won this rivalry and dominated this rivalry for many years now. But the difference in this game and the extraordinary effort is Oklahoma State's defense, guys.

They're sixth in the country right now. They're second in points per drive. They're third in yards per game. They're fourth in explosive play rate. They're seventh in pressure rate. This defense, Oklahoma State, is right behind Georgia. They are an elite defense. And we've seen so far this year, Oklahoma has really struggled to move

the ball against any defense that really sort of has a pulse, right? We've seen with either it was Baylor, even Iowa State, or I mean Kansas. It's been hard to move the football, and you're not moving on Oklahoma State. Now, the issue with this is Oklahoma State's offense is not very good, but Oklahoma's

defense is okay, but we've seen them give up points at times this season. I think this is the time. It's a night game. It's going to be cold. You have a true freshman on the road. I like the first half under two in this game, but I'm taking a side.

It's Oklahoma State here minus the four, four and a half. The Sharps are with you, Jeff. 20% more of the money than the bets on Oklahoma State. So interesting. Yeah. So the other game is actually tonight. It's the Egg Bowl, Mississippi State and Mississippi. Mississippi State, I believe, is getting a couple points in this game.

I think they actually win this game outright against Ole Miss. They're at home, first of all, which is very important. But if you look at how these teams stack up, Mississippi State's defense has gotten them a lot of run this year, and it continues to do very good things. And Mississippi, in general, is not as well-rounded as Mississippi State is. Mississippi State also scores points as well. They're 30th in points per drive,

and they're 50th in points per drive on defense, where Ole Miss is close, but they're 74th in points per drive. I think the edge here at home goes to Mississippi State. Again, Mississippi, I keep saying these, you know, the running Rebs, the Rebels, they're 105th on defense in success rate. They're 102nd in explosive rate. They're 103rd and 3 in out.

They just kind of don't get off the field. They're about on third down. Ivy Mississippi State does enough defensively to hold down this Matt Crowell offense, and they win this game outright. But I'll take a couple points as well. Any feeling on this game? I don't have a feeling on this one, but I'm curious what your Pac-12 plays are because I've been trailing those pretty well.

Yeah, so BYU is a seven-point favorite at USC. I just don't get this. USC this year, after they beat San Jose State at home, these are the amount of points they've allowed at home since then. 42, 45, 42, 34 to

Arizona, and 62 to UCLA. BYU is going to score at will in this game. They are 13th in country in points per game. There's a little bit of worry about BYU's defense to score at will in this game. They are 13th in country points per game. There's a little bit of worry about BYU's defense. It's not great, but USC's offense is very hampered without Drake London in the game, and he is a wide receiver that would be a first-round draft pick. The Coliseum is a place of horrors for them this season. Again, I go back to how many points they have allowed. And no matter how good or bad USC is,

a team going to the Coliseum still wants to kick their ass. And that's very important, right? And USC's season, what are they playing for? They just had the rivalry game. So if you figured, A, they're going to be up for the rivalry game. They're going to play well. This is the game after the rivalry game. Like, that would have been the game they played well in.

And they didn't really. They lost 62 to 33. So I like BYU, and I like the BYU team total over as well, if you can find that. It's obviously, as we record this on Wednesday, there's nothing posted for that yet. I'm also leaning Cal plus 7 against UCLA. That's one

I've had my eyes on. But if you go to my Twitter, Jeff Schwartz, I'll post them on Friday. But I really like the BYU play here. The Oregon game, by the way, is kind of odd. Oregon hasn't covered all year at home. They've only covered five times as a favorite against Oregon State. But it appears there's sharp

money in Oregon right now. They're minus seven. They have less tickets, about 40%, and 70% of the money's on them. And it's kind of reversed with Oregon State. So I'm kind of curious if again, they haven't covered home all season. They don't cover really as a favorite. Oregon State, that was one of four

on the road this season. That's a sneaky, like, you're getting a couple extra points of value here because this line should be about nine or 10. Someone told me they'd make it 11. An ultimate could have told me they would have made it 11. It's seven now.

I wouldn't bet on Oregon with my money, but there is, I actually think, some value in Oregon this this weekend i mean i think this is like a good principle to have in betting in general which is you just got burned by oregon right and obviously you have an emotional tie with them of course the next week you're not going to be like great i'm going back to the well but maybe you should maybe you should you know just shake that i think that's like a big part of why people get this stuff wrong. Sometimes you have to fade your own instincts.

And I think this is one of them. But again, it's not really. BYU is my plug, guys. I still don't get why it's sitting at seven. It makes no sense to me. I think people have overvalued USC all season, and they continue to make the same issue. All right, let's get to the NFL games,

starting with our Thursday Thanksgiving three-pack. We'll start with the ugliest one, 1230 Eastern today. Bears at Lions. We're looking at three for the Bears on the road. Don't do it. Please don't do it. No, I'm not going to do it because the Lions quarterbacks are terrible, so I'm not going to do it. Please don't do it. No, I'm not going to do it because the Lions quarterbacks are terrible. So I'm not going to do it.

But this is the first, if you want to do Thanksgiving, there's a teaser to be made. That's the best way to do it. And the Lions plus nine is your leg in the teaser. The Bears are 0-5 the last five games. They have a negative point differential of 67. They have a minus seven turnover margin.

They're a bad football team and their coach is about to be fired. But the Lions aren't really good either. And their quarterback situation is bad is it golf is a boil i don't know but if you're playing this in my opinion you put in a teaser matt and then otherwise just stay away and enjoy your your thanksgiving turkey so i god i can't believe i'm saying this i i would actually be on the bears i think um because like this is like who who cares that the the coach is rumored to be fired like he could he's playing for his job right like if they win this game the offense was better with andy dalton kind of anyway for most

of the season when he came back in this is the lions are terrible you mentioned the quarterback situation i have i don't even think i'd do the plus nine like i i just don't trust this lion's team at all and i think that this is usually this is one of those weeks where if you jump on the bears just to kind of fade all of the negative buzz it could end up being profitable having said i don't want it but that would be the side i would yeah my concern with that though is they just i said the same for last week right at home ravens awful and the ravens are struggling on the field and scoring them. Like, I have no faith the Bears can hold a lead in this game at the very end. Well, they came in and scored when Dalton came in the game, right?

Like, they didn't do anything. Yeah, but he threw a screen pass. And that was one of them. They threw one against zero pressure. But we're spending too much time on the game. We're not going to wager on it. Let's get to the next game. Yeah, no chance. Good point. Raiders at cowboys is at 4 30 eastern uh

lots to talk about here i did want to ask you this i'm glad hank put this in our notes because last weekend at halftime or on monday night at halftime this week booger mcfarland said that the cowboys were the most left tackle dependent team in the NFL. And I had to like pause the broadcast and say like, what does that mean exactly? Of course, I didn't pause it because it goes right to the fastest three minutes, which is still my favorite thing of all time. But I'm just curious. Is that a thing? Like, does that mean anything to you?

Well, it does because I believe my numbers are right here. They are 79 and 61 when Smith plays, and they're 14 and 16 when he's out. Okay. It's a huge – they just don't win. They can't function when he's out. It's really the oddest thing of all time. And we saw against the Chiefs, obviously.

Now, a lot of the issues, though, were Chris Jones, too, inside. He was dominating inside as well. And the Cowboys will be without, I believe, Smith this weekend as well. Excuse me, Thursday as well. Today, without Cooper, without Lamb. They're favored by seven, I believe, right now. Matt, can I make a case for the Cowboys minus seven here, buddy? Yeah, definitely.

Here's why. The Raiders freaking suck, FYI. They're terrible's why. The Raiders freaking suck. FYI. They're terrible. The Raiders suck. The last three weeks without Henry Ruggs in the lineup, they have 16 points, 14 points, and 13 points. They have the worst red zone defense in the NFL.

They can't get anyone off the field on third down. They're 26th in rushing defense. They're a bad football team, and they're playing worse and worse each week. Then they have a short week on the road, on Thanksgiving, because the Dallas team, look, defensively, they only won 19 points.

They didn't have a bad game on defense. Offensively, it was a wreck. But guess what? The Raiders can't take advantage of this. How many drop passes is Gallup and Wilson going to have in this game? To me, if this is at seven, as I believe it still is right now, I would play this right now. I think have in this game? Like to me, if this is at seven, as I believe it still is right now,

I would play this right now. I think Dallas wins this game by 10 to 14 points and maybe even 42 to 20, like not even close. I don't – I mean, this is too football guy of me, but the Raiders look like they have a fork in them, and the Cowboys have to win. I know they're terrible on Thanksgiving against the spread. I get all that. But in this

specific spot with the injuries that I don't think matter in this game, but more importantly, the Raiders are not playing good football. They've allowed 73 points the last two weeks. It's an anti-Raiders bet more than anything else. Yeah. It's so interesting. The Sharp guys love

Vegas. They're all over them, but I'm with you. I don't really see this any other way, especially the news is that CeeDee Lamb is on track to play. Even if he doesn't play, I don't think it matters. Yeah, I think Cooper matters more. Dak Prescott was finding open guys. They dropped the football.

Yeah, a lot of Dalton Schultz in that game last week. I'm with you. I think the Raiders are cooked. I think not having a real coach is starting to show because yes you're right like the rugs thing i you texted me about rugs the other day and you were like they haven't been the same without him and i kind of laughed it's like yeah if we just said cd lamb doesn't matter then how can henry rugs have mattered like i didn't do anything but well open them up right like they just were able to threaten well at least. I'll tell you why. Because rugs does allow them to get the ball like deep and out

and like get it down the field. They don't have anyone else. So now they can't throw the ball down the field. Everyone just kind of packs everything in and their offensive line is not really good. And so we don't have that deep threat. The rush gets to Carr before he gets rid of the ball, right? Like all these things are kind of adding up without that speedster on it plus look I said this at the time we are very

regimented people in the NFL right and we are mentally prepared to handle a lot of things right players being cut players being hurt coaches leaving coaches getting cut we're not prepared for what happened with Ruggs we're not and for what happened with rugs we're not and so it seems like he was a good teammate he was well liked killed someone going to jail never playing football again now we lost a buddy and a friend and a teammate who we liked he's going to jail and now we got to play without one of our best offensive threats like and our coach is not there i i think all that adds up to them not playing well yeah that's such a shame yeah it's that's really interesting insight uh about that so i'm with you i think if you do like a t is this is a great t is candidate you could do you

could do a seven pointer and put the lions up to 10 and dallas down to just a pick that's a nice idea i like um this is my second leg of the t so i went lions cowboys and our third leg will be in this next game let's talk about it we could have a little thanksgiving teaser action here the bills are six and a half point road favorites at the saints what a high number so i guess you're you're talking about teasing the bills down here too no i'm talking about teasing the saints. Really? Yeah. Saints have lost two in a row. They come back home now.

Sean Payne's great off a loss. Now, he didn't cover the spread last week. The last two weeks. That game was kind of a funky. No, they covered two weeks ago against Tennessee. Yeah, they lost. Yeah. Yeah. He's great at covering the spread off a loss.

But this is more of almost an anti-Bills. Like, their offense, guys, has not been that good this season. Josh Allen's taking a big step back. They can't run the football. They're not protecting as well. And the only way this game stays close is if the Saints defense plays well, as well as they've had. Now, offensively, Kamara's not going to play.

It looks like I'm not sure that Ryan Ramchick's going to play the right tackle. The left tackle might be. I mean, there's some serious issues here for them. So what I wrote for fox sports was you either tease the saints or you tease the under you go you you know take it from 46 i believe 46 and a half to 52 and you have a defensive minded game with both teams who are led by their defense huh interesting i i'm not one to usually tease a total that's a very advanced move um i i think that's right i i'm laying off here i would say that if i had to pick i'd pick the bills really on the oh man interesting

i just like who do the saints have like who how do the saints win this game like their defense yeah they played you know say it's tasem hill right because that's my guess what we're leaning to the newly extended Taysom Hill. Like, I don't know what he has. I don't know what he has. It's him or Trevor Simeon. Like,

that's not great. But then like you watch the saints defense last week, they played a very similar, a worse version of Josh Allen and Jalen hurts. And they got scorched. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. So you're right.

I just think that this is a bad matchup for them. And yeah, I would, I would play the Bills, but I think I would tease them down if I were doing my Thanksgiving teaser and just basically take them to win. Oh, that makes sense.

I do think they will. That makes sense. All right, so do a Thanksgiving teaser. Use one of these permutations. We just gave you a lot of options. But moving on to Sunday, the Bucks are at the Colts. The Bucks are three-point road favorites,

despite not covering a game on the road yet this season. Oh, man. I don't like betting on the C words, but I feel like that's... The Carson Wentzes. If we're playing here, that's the play, right? The question is, is there too much value on the Colts now because of their big win last weekend, right?

Is that we're seeing that they're getting too many points. I will say, though, the thing that does worry me is Tambay's run defense continues to be really good, and the Colts, that's what they do on offense. They're not going to pass the ball very well, and they don't want to pass the ball well. So I am concerned about that in this matchup. By the way, the Bucs offense is number one up now in DVOA.

I think this is a stay away. The Bucs look like they're back this past week. It's a bad Giants team off a bye. Remember last year off their bye? They came – no, no. Sorry, they lost to Washington off their bye, right? And they came back and – yes. And roared back against the Giants.

I would stay away from this game, but I think if you're playing, it's the Colts plus three. I agree. Vida Veya looks like he might play, which should really help their run defense that like Antonio Gibson had his way with them two weeks ago.

They haven't been as good as they have been in the last couple of years, and I think it coincides with Veya being out. He's really good, yeah. Yeah, I guess it would be the last couple of years. And I think it coincides with VEA being out. He's really good. Yeah. Yeah. I, I guess it would be the Colts,

but this is one where it's like, we could be, you know, two snaps into it and go, wait, did we just bet on Carson Wentz to beat Tom Brady? Like that doesn't make a ton of sense. Yep.

I'm with you. I agree. Yeah. But the bucks are terrible on the road against the spread. So I agree. I think if I had to pick it, I would pick the Colts too. Yeah is gross speaking of gross the eagles are at your new york giants uh i just by the way i just we need to celebrate quickly uh jeff's national odell beckham day

where if you're new to the show it's they it's the anniversary of the catch. The one-handed catch was the 23rd, which was Tuesday, seven years ago because we're old as hell. And if you watch the highlight, the first guy down the field, Jeff Schwartz, lifting Odell in the air, dirty dancing style. It's a beautiful thing. But I don't know, Jeff. Is that like one of your favorite days of your year on social? It's pretty fun. It was a pretty cool day. I mean, the buzz in that stadium after that catch,

I've never experienced that before. It's my first game back that year off my toe injury too. But don't let anyone tell you we lost that game because that ruins the entire vibe of that whole video. We did lose, but you wouldn't think that based off of that. But yeah, it was fun. Again, that buzz in the stadium i've never never heard it before in the stadium you knew you were watching something very special does every

year do you get like a new reach out from people like i imagine that you're that every year your feed somebody's like wait a second is that jeff uh yeah i got one i got one yesterday yeah from someone from hill just a twitter follower oh Oh, just Twitter followers. Yes. Yeah. Well, it's a great thing. It gives our group thread a kick out of it every single year. It definitely does, yes. In memory, in honor of that, are you in on your Giants plus three and a half against the scorching hot Eagles? When did that happen?

Yeah, and now what's his face? Jason Garrett gets fired. So I have a new off the corner,die kitchens i know that'll fix it that'll change things i would the giants i'm trying to find the right number here the giants are very good um at home excuse me they're very poor at home covering the spread terrible um under really anyone the last couple of years um eagles are are playing well because they're dominating the line of scrimmages and that really does not change on the road they should will continue in my opinion to play well in the trenches where the giants really struggle in those areas. As much as three and a half, I hate the hook in this. I would definitely, again, it's 100% public play here,

but I would totally take the Eagles in this spot. I was hoping you'd be in on the Giants just because I think I could get talked into it. Giants, you mentioned them at home. 6-16 against the spread in their last 22 as a home dog, which is antithetical to everything we've ever learned about sports betting. I don't feel great about it, but if you're asking me what I'd play in this game, it would be that. I guess. We've kind of swore off the three and a half on the road.

Yeah, Jalen Hurts is a three and a half point road favorite. It's like everything I hate to bet on. We're not doing that. Let's pass. So what do we have? We have one right now. We have one, but I think this next game, I feel very strongly in this one.

Okay. I think I know what side. It's the Titans at the patriots yeah the patriots are laying six and a half do you know which side do you know what tennessee's dvoa is for an eight and three team guy it's got to be terrible it's 18 18 and i bet it's like plummeted the last three weeks yeah uh the patriots are third dvo EVOA, mainly by the defense. Since Derrick Henry has gone out, the Titans' offense has been crap. They're averaging less than 300 yards since he's been out in games.

They have three plays of 20-plus yards over the last three weeks. I think this is a really rough game for the Titans. They're the most injured team in the NFL. They've used the most roster most injured team in the NFL. They've had the most, they've used the most roster spots so far in the NFL. The Patriots, I think, are just going to roll into this game. They have a couple extra days off, right, because they had a Thursday night game.

It's going to be low scoring, but I really like New England in this spot. Under a touchdown here, I mean, what's the path for Tennessee? The defense somehow saves them in this game? It touchdown here i mean what what's the what's the path for tennessee the defense somehow saves them in this game it's a great it's a great point uh i when you put it that way it's sort of hard to make the case my i mean my case would basically just be like do we trust mac jones and this offense to sort of like put a team away and win by you know win by a touchdown or more um you know because they're but last three weeks, they've absolutely demolished three teams that are comparable in terms of what this Titans team has in talent right now.

I agree. The Titans, we kind of all knew it was duct taped together the last month or so without Henry. But at some point, the injuries, it does catch up to you. Tannehill looks like he's turned into a pumpkin. Without the receivers, it's sort of hard to imagine them letting the scoreboard up. I don't really know what the argument against this is.

It just feels a little too easy. It's just under a touchdown. Six and a half stole a lot of points. I mean, for Mac Jones in this spot. But, dude, I'm in on Patriots here. Yeah, I am too. They're coming off of two wins where they went by 38-25. All right.

I don't know why I don't like this. It just doesn't feel a little bit too easy or something. It feels like it's public, but it's not really. It's about 50-50. The Sharps are a little bit on Tennessee. I don't know. I think Tennessee is just – it does feel fishy. It's a lot of points. But I think that it's just i don't know i think tennessee is just it does feel fishy it's a

lot of points um but i think i think that it's probably a little inflated but i really think that titans are going one direction the page is going another direction yep all right i'm i'm comfortable with it nothing wrong with betting bill belichick at home with a little extra rest next game is an afc north game with a ton of implications the steelers are plus four and a half at cincinnati um i have a feeling here i'm curious what yours is so i like pittsburgh here plus the four and a half me too um remember the first time these teams played if i'm if i have this correct the steelers were out like a bunch of defensive linemen in this game. Right?

The first time they played, they were out a bunch of guys, if I recall. I'm going to actually make sure because I sound like a bumbling idiot just talking about this. It was 24-10 in that game. I just don't think – I'm fairly certain that the Steelers just had a bunch of guys out that game. Yeah, like TJ Watt's not even on. TJ Watt's supposed to be back this week, which will be very helpful for them. Yeah, they didn't have a bunch of guys that play in this game.

I think that it's just too many points. Big Ben's supposed to be back this week, right? Or he was back last week. I'm sorry, he was back last week. I'm sorry about that. He was back on Monday. Are the Bengals going to beat the Sears twice in one season? I don't think so.

I don't know. It just feels like too many points, buddy. Classic Mike Tomlin spot. This is always where he wins games. They're coming off of a loss. They're playing a division rival. They're 40-20-2 against the spread as an underdog in the regular season under Tomlin. These two teams are very comparable in

terms of like you know their dvoa for example but these two teams are about the same and this is just the kind of game that pittsburgh wins and the bengals lose traditionally like it just is um and look like for you know if they didn't win last week but pittsburgh's offense came alive like it seems like they figured something out um every game pittsburgh's offense came alive like it seems like they figured something out um every game pittsburgh plays is close this should be like that i like you know i think the coaching matters at the end of the day and this and this is a good spot for pittsburgh i'm in let's do it man all right i that was one of my favorites i like that uh moving on the panthers are at the dolphins dolphins plus two oh man that would be the play here oh boy i look i i watched a fair amount of cam newton last week the guy just it's just a

matter of time before the wheels come off with this guy like he's he's good at a few things and really not great at most of the other things. I think Miami, remember, this was a team that everyone really liked coming into the season. They have a lot of things that they can do on defense. I think that this is the kind of game that they sneak out and we're like, wait a second, they've won four straight? Huh? It just feels like it's probably the play here if we were to do it i mean it definitely is the play which is kind of the sucky part about this um right i mean they're they're getting to at home

like i actually just had to like relook at it to just make sure i made the right case they are two point home favorites to carolina who's like what what what why are they getting any credit i just don't understand i'm with you i put them in the maybes it's hard to make a case for them like but i think you're right with the that with the plus two like that just makes no sense yeah they seem to start hot carolina every year and then the same way the same way every year yep um all right i like the dolphins there uh i actually have a lean in this terrible game too the jets at the texans uh the texans are two and a half point favorites at home i i think the texans

are definitely the right play here uh with tyra taylor back i just i this feels like an obvious take i love houston this spot let's go all right i was sure that you were just gonna laugh but i'm in the question is obviously you know obviously, I'm kind of curious. We're week 12, right? Yes, week 12. I'm kind of curious what the look-ahead line was for this. I'm curious what the look-ahead line would have been in this game. I'm curious if it moved after the Texans won.

That's a good question. It opened at three after the the win yeah oh so people people so it was at minus three it was it was three and now it's down to two and a half um huh um i i think look the texans and we've talked about this a lot are a much different team with tyra taylor's in the lineup and the jets just have no plan they also don't have quarterbacks right now they're both on the covid list i i i'm with you like this is three people might wager on this game we're gonna be one of the three i'm very comfortable putting houston in this spot under a field goal me too i i also will say so zach wilson's supposed to come back given that covid disaster in that

in that jets quarterback room joe they trade a pick by the way, for Joe Flacco, who's unvaccinated. And he comes in, and now Mike White also has COVID along with Joe Flacco. Unbelievable. So Zach Wilson's going to come back. He's going to be rusty. All the progress that this offense has made with Elijah Moore. Elijah Moore wasn't doing anything when Zach Wilson was in. It was a lot of Corey Davis.

I think he's going to be rusty. They're going to come out flat. I think Houston finally feels like they're doing well. And no Michael Carter, who's been the only Jets bright spot, really. Oh, I love this sneaky little play here. Yeah, I think this is a slam dunk. I'm in. No one's going to want it.

All right. Texans lock it up. Another stinker. The Falcons at the Jags. Jags plus one. We need to save our listeners some time in this situation. Yeah, that's one crappy game. Unless you have a feel.

I think Atlanta's actually not a bad play here. Oh, no. As long as Cordero Patterson's back. We're not doing them on. We're not doing. No. Yeah, we're not touching the Falcons again. No, thanks.

The Chargers are at the Broncos to kick off the four o'clocks. This should be a good game. The Chargers are now favored two and a half on the road at Denver. What do you think? God, everyone's going to be in a public Chargers favorite on the week. Oh, God. So let's take Denver, man. This is what they do.

Teddy Bridgewater covers as the home dog all the time. What did the Broncos do well? They run. They have a great rushing attack. The Chargers can't defend that. Yeah. They're coming off of a bye. They should be a little bit healthier.

I think Denver's a very solid play here two and a half is yeah plus two and a half you're right i mean you're right right this is what we always do right home divisional dog right and we've been i think hey i don't think he has it up here this week but we've been really good in divisional games right that's been like our thing this year we've been like we've been really fantastic in divisional games i believe you know what i'm i'm good that. I'm good with that. I think you're right. Everyone's going to be all over the Chargers,

but Denver's always a tough place to play. They should have that little extra rest. Doesn't it feel like this could be the Javante Williams breakout week? It does. Where he just goes crazy. I'm going to put him in the maybes for now because we have one slot open right now. We can move some stuff around because there is one game that I really do like coming up in a few minutes.

We'll just get into it. We'll get there. Cool. 425, Vikings. Did I skip one? No. Vikings at 49ers. 49ers laying three and a half.

This line's moved all over the place. Three, three and a half. I have no idea about this game, buddy. The three, three and a half. I have no idea about this game, buddy. The Vikings are playing good, but they just, I mean, we're going to trust them after a big win on the road now. No, but I don't ever trust the Niners anymore, especially at home.

They can't seem to win at home. I have no feel for this game. What do you think? I think it's got to be the Vikings. Plus three and a half. I love the Vikings. Plus three, a little less, but getting the hook like the 49ers but is it but you like it more than any of these other stuff we have i don't know i but i do want to talk i'm sure

somebody out there is on the fence about this one so i'll just say this the vikings like the vikings every single week bring it and kirk cousins 21 touchdowns two picks this season jeff he's been he's been very good their defense is starting to come around a little bit and this 49ers team i said it last week i i was i think on on them against jacksonville um just we were sort of back and forth on that one but like they san francisco now everyone's gonna be like okay they're fine they figured it out they're still super banged up they're still doing a bunch of weird crap like they're getting a lot of credit because they're starting the games with these long drives.

Who cares? I don't know. I think Minnesota's just way better. I don't think we need to put them down. They're more reliable. Each week we know we're getting from Minnesota. They basically have been the same DVOA each week. They're a very consistent team where other teams have had these

kind of ups and downs. Plus three and a half. I like the hook a lot in this game a lot um let's put them in the maybes because i feel like at the end of this we're gonna throw out the cowboys minus seven as my interest yes we'll see we got three games left and i know you like one of them so maybe it's this one it's rams at packers uh this opened at three for the packers, has gotten bet down, and now it's at one. It's actually flipped. It's now Rams by one in some spots. So what do you think?

I like the Rams here, and I'll tell you why. The Packers' offensive line right now is down their left tackle. They're down Elton Jenkins now, and they're down their center. You don't want to play the Rams with a bad offensive line. I'm obviously terrified of Matt Stafford right now because he just doesn't seem to be playing as well as we expected him to play. He makes some bad bonehead turnovers. They're on the road that's going to be cold in Green Bay.

But if we're playing a side here, I'm okay with wagering on the team with a better offensive-defense line at the moment, which is the Rams. But I don't feel great about it because Rodgers can throw the ball quickly. There's ways to kind of get around the offensive line issues. It's not my favorite of the weekend, but Rams minus the one or plus the one is the way I'd look at this game. But I can tell you hate it. And if you hate it, we don't have to do it.

I was – I don't know. it and if you hate it we don't have to do it i was i don't know i just think that like this this to me just feels like a stay away because on one hand i'm fine with that you've got rogers as a home dog which like that's you rarely get that spot uh especially given they've been unbelievable against the spread this year right i think they've dropped two against the spread yeah nine and two yeah and um he's probably the covid toe which is like supposedly crazy so well he said it says he said it's not covid toe he said it's a fracture toe he actually put his toe into the zoom today uh to show everyone his feet but it's really funny it's just it's just this whole story he said he had covid toes reporters

code and then he is he's pissed that people report as COVID toe. Yeah. Well, sorry, Aaron Rogers. Uh, you, you kind of brought this one on yourself there,

bud. Um, I don't know. I just feel like you, you mentioned the cold weather. It's like Matt Stafford outside Odell Beckham. You know, the,

I think the Robert Woods thing there, they're down two of their top three guys with Cam Akers and Robert Woods now. So I just – I love McVay off a bye. I think that's a really good angle. But I just – something – I don't know. I just – I'm not going to – We can stay away from this. I'm fine with that.

Sunday night game is the Browns and the Ravens. Three and a half is probably what we're getting now, right? Three – yeah, three and a half. I mean we don't know what the deal is with quarterback here so this this feels like stay away i would lean i would lean ravens but they're so beat up man i can't bet on a beat-up team like that um and who knows if i say anything about negative about baker his wife might attack me yeah seriously get tougher from that we gotta we gotta we got spouses, man. Take a deep breath. Take a deep breath.

Yeah, Matt Stafford's wife throwing a pretzel at somebody. Yeah. No, yeah, Matt Stafford. Yeah, pretzel. Pretzel game. We've seen Pat Mahomes' brother throw a water ball at someone. He seems to actually not be the last two games. Since then, the Chiefs' offense has taken off. Yeah.

I'm talking about him not being the last two games. Actually, there's a whole Blucher report, to me, a Barstool thing on it. I'm like, is it their curse, Jackson Holmes' curse? So, yeah, I'm out on this game. I don't have a great feel for it. Yeah, same. Speaking of that, Monday night, my Washington football team, winner of two straight, shout out producer Hank, hosting the embattled Seahawks.

I don't think we can touch this right no you shouldn't even watch this game i will be watching as the resurgent football team claws their way back but i i do think they will probably win this i definitely watch it is the watch is the play if you're taking if you're taking something here but you're not you just can't do it why are they not favored by at least three sorry by the way like it is sunset at 3 44 p.m in new york like you see my face i'm just like a wash in yeah it looks it looks miserable you look it makes you look even more emo i'm gonna close my blinds all right so we have dallas minus seven new york minus six and a half pittsburgh plus four and a half houston plus four and a half, Houston minus two and a half,

and then we have one more spot left. We've talked about Miami plus two against the Panthers, Denver plus two and a half, and Minnesota plus three and a half on the road. Which one of those three do you want to throw out first?

Or do you want to throw any of the Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, or Houston? Those feel good to me. I like those four yeah i out of these ones i throw i trust denver the least yeah the charges are good so okay so we're deciding for one spot between denver minnesota and two and miami and miami i don't want to bet miami and we can't do that to the listeners

i'm just thinking okay, okay, just for fun, it looks like Miami is a sharp play. I mean, there's just a ton of money on – Yeah, because who's betting them? No, it's actually the other way. The Panthers are getting – Oh, well, this makes it even better. They're getting 80% of the money as a road favorite. Yeah, the Panthers are.

Yeah, that's my point. That's an automatic Dolphins take. Yeah, because the Vikings are a public road favorite. I mean, it's a public road dog, which is not great in my opinion. Yeah, that's not a good spot. And then obviously Denver is going to be a – it's basically are we taking Denver against a good Chargers team or are we taking Miami against whatever the Panthers are?

But you're right. I mean, the matchup with the Broncos and being able to run the football against this Chargers defense is really a good matchup. That is a spot you'd want to be in. Yep. So I – I don't know man i i i guess or do we and not to make this more complicated but are we are we i think we should lock in dallas i was going to say no i have you know dallas new england pittsburgh and houston good

with those four yeah all right a minnesota yeah we should have one thanksgiving taste along with our teaser min Minnesota. Oh, man. Can the Niners? I think the Denver play is the smartest. I actually think the Dolphins play is the smartest. They're playing a bad team. No one's going to be on that game. I do think it's a nice spot to take Bridgewater getting points against that bad of a defense. Off of a primetime huge

crazy win, maybe it's Denver. Off a bye? Yeah, I think it is Denver. I think it is Denver. Let's do it. Denver, wait, you want... But Miami's playing a much worse team. This is

the tough part of doing this thing. We're going to have to decide now. You would feel more comfortable doing – You're right. At least if Denver, I feel better betting on Teddy Bridgewater and Vic Fangio off a buy. You're right about that. Denver plus two and a half. I think that's right.

Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Denver. Again, we're good at divisional. What? I got one more thing, Jeff. The 49ers this year are one and four against the spread at home. I know. And the Vikings are four and one on the road against the spread. I know.

All right. I think Denver's right. But I think I'm going to be taking Minnesota on the side. I'm more excited about than you are. So let's do Denver then. Denver plus two and a half. Denver it is. Done. I'm looking at my standings, by the way. I'm moving up about it than you are. So let's do Denver then. Denver plus two and a half. Denver it is. Done. I'm looking at my standings, by the way. I'm moving up. I did that gold nugget contest.

You do seven picks a week, right? Two pack, 12. There's 149 contestants. I'm up to 53. Oh, look at you. 40 and 37. Basically been buoyed by the pack 12 because I'm 24 and 31. And that means i'm 16 and 16 and six and all my college picks

that's impressive i'm in a super contest league with the buddy a producer buddy and i do it with a friend we do something very similar to this and there are 94 entries and one guy quit because he was doing so bad. And until two weeks ago, my buddy and I were in 93rd of 94th. No way. But we've cracked the top 90 because we've gone on a little bit of a burner. It's insane. Really bad. Yeah, I'm at 50th, tied for 53rd.

I'm eight wins away, eight points away from the leader well we can get seven of them this week let's go oh that'd be sweet buddy um all right guys Dallas New England Pittsburgh Houston Denver and BYU all right that's who those are your plays and Notre Dame Notre Dame's in kick Stanford's ass by the way I. Throw that in there. I don't think I'm going to go there. I'm going to take Notre Dame. My plays for this week are going to be Notre Dame, BYU, and those five NFL games. I'll tell you that right now. Perfect.

But the problem is, I guess I have to get my picks in tonight because the football game is tomorrow, the Thanksgiving game. I hope my runner, whoever can put that game in before. That's their job, though, right?

Sounds like you have some phone calls to make. That's actually a great, that's a great question. I'm gonna do that right now. All right, guys. Well, have a great Thanksgiving. Hope you have a great football weekend. We back next week. Remember, we're going to kind of slow down college football

because next week will be only championship games. Well, you know what, Matt, let's commit to doing all the Power Five Championship Conference games next week. All five of them. Done. I'll even study. All five of them. We can skip Maction and the AAC, even though we might have a play on Houston,

plus the points, or Cincinnati. We'll find out. But have a great weekend, everyone. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Please rate, review, subscribe. Let us know how you feel about this uh this show and us and we'll talk to you guys next week have a great thanksgiving