Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 10 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 9

Episode Date: November 11, 2021

Geoff and Matt kick off today’s show with something out of the ordinary… a college basketball pick? Order is restored soon after when Geoff gives his CFB picks (Michigan at Penn State, UNC at Pitt, Tennessee vs. Georgia, and three Pac 12 games) but if the CBB picks hit they might have to keep them coming.Then Geoff and Matt work through every NFL game slated for this upcoming weekend to give you the five Best Bets against the spread. They highlight a couple that they’re definitely betting on (Titans vs. Saints, Browns at Patriots) as well as a few they’re staying away from (Panthers vs. Cardinals, Chiefs at Vegas). As always, leave comments with your betting questions on the episode for a chance to be featured in a mailbag segment. Are Geoff and Matt losing you money? Tell them how you feel!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday november 11th my name is jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz you are powered by the varsity podcast network it is our preview for the weekend we're going to hit on some college football as usual some nfl and a little bit of college basketball sprinkled in there because as matt noticed i uh bet on a maryland quinn quinnipiac qu Quinnipiac game the other night. That did not win that game, by the way. You did it? Wait, we won by 23, Maryland, right? Oh, Purdue didn't cover that.

I was 2 for 3 last night. Maybe that was the one game. I get all these big 10 teams, I get confused. And look, if we want to start there very quickly, college basketball has started. It's hard to give college basketball picks on a podcast that comes out on a Thursday when games are Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

But UCLA against Villanova. I'm taking UCLA to cover Friday night. They host Villanova at Poly Pavilion. It's a late, late game. It's 1130 p.m. Eastern tip-off for Villanova at Poly Pavilion. The Bruins obviously return a bunch of their players. Johnny just saying from last year, they look good. And they played some of their players, Johnny Zezang from last year. They look good, and they played some who knows last night.

I don't know. Let me look. I just want to make sure I have the name right of who they played. They played Cal State Bakersfield last night, one that came by nearly 40. An injury, though, to Cody Riley has got me a little bit concerned, but very quickly, again, we'll do UCLA in their favor by two and a half at home against Villanova on Friday.

Matt, do you have a lean for Maryland basketball coming up? I don't. We're going way off menu here. This is the first mention of Cal State Bakersfield on this podcast in history. I'm sure of that. It's GW at Maryland on Thursday night at the Big Ten Network. I'm sure you'll be tuned in to that game. Gabe went to GW.

Maybe we should have some steaks. That's great. GW, Maryland, Maryland 21st in the country. All right, let's get some college football before we get to the NFL. All right, let's start out with a big game. Michigan, Penn State. Michigan came in at six last night in the college football playoff. That just drove everyone crazy.

Guys, remember. So funny. It's a TV show. It's a TV program. Okay? These are not the final rankings. They're going to change each week. They're basically trolling us.

Like, why would you have Michigan? You just lost to Michigan State. Why are they ahead of Michigan State? Just to screw with everyone. So, we spent all this time talking about it. It's not going to matter, Matt, because they're going to lose it in Penn State this weekend. It's that simple. I'm concerned about Penn State's offensive ability

to score enough points in this game. But defensively, they're good. And Michigan has struggled this year. At least the games have been much closer than we thought against teams that can kind of put up a fight. Nebraska, for as bad as they've been, can put up a fight. Michigan State. But more importantly, Harbaugh doesn't win these games.

Like, on the road, ranked opponent, you're sixth in the country, everyone's talking about you, your quarterback's a little beat up. Like, do I trust James Franklin, Sean Clifford? Not really, but I will say. Tough ask. When they played Iowa and Sean Clifford was healthy, and I know he's getting healthier, they had a really good game plan. They had things drawn up really well. I kind of feel like they'll

have a good game plan. Will it be executed? I don't know. Their offensive line is kind of a wreck, but I just don't like Michigan in this spot on the road at Penn State. What say you? I mean, I think the betting community agrees with you. This opened at seven and it's down to one, which means that a lot of people agree with you. Although now seven and it's uh down to one which means that you know a lot of people agree with you although now the money's starting to swing back so i look you're right narrative narrative based only i'm not a great college football better by any means feels right to fade our ball here but uh you may have missed you may have missed the number so maybe give it a second and let it kind of come back if you're listening to this show on on

thursday um then you can make this wager. If not, I'll give you some wagers at the end of this and pack those wagers to make up for this. But Pittsburgh is hosting North Carolina on Thursday night. And this is a rare culture ball game where they both play Saturday and then play again Thursday. That's not happening very often. Typically, teams are off a bye. So I have North Carolina

off a big win against Wake Forest on the road to play Pittsburgh. The reason to take a Pittsburgh here minus a six and a half is obviously, again, emotional letdown spot for North Carolina. But more importantly, guys, their defense is poo-poo, right? North Carolina's defense is 88th in success rate, 109th in points per drive. Both these offenses are good, right?

We know that Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh can score a lot of points. They're 7th in points per drive. North of points. They're 7th points per drive. North Carolina on offense, 11th points per drive. But their offensive line has problems as well. North Carolina, they're 120-second sack rate. They give a bunch of pressure. And North Carolina gets around this by just being good on first and second down, not being third and long.

But Pittsburgh's defense, guys, is just pretty good. They're 24th in success rate, 21st in points per drive, 7th in pressure rate. This is a bad matchup for North Carolina. Both teams can score fine, but Pittsburgh's much, much better on defense. This game is like 45-31. And we saw this year, too,

when North Carolina played teams with a little smidgen of defense. Not Wake Forest, but North Carolina, excuse me, Notre Dame, I should say. Florida State just weren't as good on offense. So give me a pin here minus a six and a half. Another side where you and the Sharps agree. This is getting 87% of the money and only about half the bets.

So I think you're onto something. A game that I'm not sure Sharps will agree with me on this. I'm taking Tennessee at home plus 20, 20 and a half against Georgia. Here's why. Let me give a caveat to this in a few minutes. Georgia has to have a stinker at some point. They can't keep playing this well and covering all these games. And this game is on the road at Tennessee.

But here's the thing that I, and Georgia's defense, right? Number one in success rate, points per drive, pressure rate. I mean, they're passing defense. They're the best in the country by far. Tennessee's not a bad football team, first of all. They're decent on offense and defense. They run an up-tempo offense. Number one in the country in adjusted pace.

And so can they play fast enough and move the ball enough to tire out Georgia's defense? Georgia's not facing offense that can do this. Yes and no. Tennessee's offensive line not very good, but they move fast enough. Maybe you catch Georgia a little off rhythm, off pace. The problem with this, Matt, is

if Tennessee has a bunch of three and outs, they're going to be down 21-0 and get their ass handed to them. So like you have to kind of watch this game, guys. If Tennessee starts out having good offensive drives, they're going to cover this game. But they come out starts out having good offensive drives they're going to cover this game but they come out two three four drives in a row of three and outs run to bet georgia live or take georgia second half like just buy out of this as best you can um georgia's

offense right they run the football run the football run the football play action pass it works because their defense is never behind. They're never behind. They can run that offense. And so I think the pace of Tennessee, I'm putting my faith in the pace of this Josh Heupel offense and the fact that Georgia has not had a stinker yet all season. They have to have a stinker at some point this season. Yeah. I mean, they can even play a pretty good game and still win by less than 20. Georgia's played nine games.

They've covered six. The only three they haven't covered is when they're favored by over 20 so uh this is a good spot if you want to fade them and you agree with this theory uh i'm i'm in i'm in on this all right let me give you some pac-12 picks we'll get to the nfl so pac-12 22 and nine this year guys i know two and nine let's go i know it's really boring uh there's like I give out on my Twitter. I don't always as my week goes on, I kind of pick and choose what to give out by Friday.

But Oregon State is favored by I think 12. They're hosting Stanford. They're going to win this game like Utah did, like 52-7. Stanford is 129th in success rate for stopping the run. Oregon State is the best rushing attack in college football, the number one.

Stanford has Jack West playing quarterback who sucked all season. Like this is going to be just a, just, I know no one's watching Oregon State-Stanford. I get it. I'm watching that game. I studied the Pat-12 Conference. Take that game.

I'm telling you right now. UCLA-Colorado, take the over. Just take the over. Just trust old Jeff Schwartz here. And then obviously Oregon plays Washington State. I do not bet on Oregon games. If you lean in the direction, you take Washington State plus the 14. Oregon has yet to cover a home game.

Talk about what to happen now. But I will give you a little warning now. Take Washington State this week. Take Oregon next week at Utah. Just listen to Uncle Jeff here on the Pac-12 conference. So, all right, let's get to the NFL, Matt. It's a lot of wisdom in just a few seconds. It's very efficient, Jeff.

I think we were two and three last week. Who knows? Who cares at this point? We're not very good. We're not good. And last week, here's what's super annoying. And by the way, sorry that it's sunset at 3.40 p.m. And I'm getting like a massive amount of shadow.

The thing that happened last week, we got you closing line value, which is all we can actually try for as bettors, right? Like we took the 49ers against the Cardinals and we took another where we got big closing line value. Oh, we took Houston. Yeah. Yeah.

Both of them were the right play because we ended up getting a great deal and they still lost. So it's like, you know, I don't know what to do. We got six points on the Niners. Yeah. And if we had said, hey, we're going to get this and Kyler Murray is going to go out and DeAndre Hopkins is going to go out and we still lost. It's like this is last week was like this is this historic week for underdogs, which is worth noting going into this week. And of course, we had two that we really liked

and both of them were given an advantage after the fact that we lost both of them that's just just the kind of season it's it's been for us and this week i just like nothing i like bro like this this just not this is an ass week but this is what separates the men from the boys it's like you have to nail it on weeks like this um and I have a little wrinkle for you, Jeff. I'm in a survivor pool where there's six people left out of over 200 that started this season. Okay. And I have some decisions to make. And one of those candidates is actually in our first game on Thursday night. Let's do it.

The Ravens are going to the Dolphins. We're seeing seven and a half is the line right now for Baltimore as a road favorite. I'm considering the Ravens straight up in my pool, but I'm curious what you think about this game in the seven and a half. Oh, man. I mean, you can't wager on the Dolphins here. No chance. The Ravens, though, have been so up and down this year. They've been behind in games.

And I would just stay away if I was in this game. But I think the side has to be the Ravens here. Dolphins are offensive line is awful. Is Tua playing? Is he not playing? The Ravens have so many injuries. Lamar's carrying that team right now. He's carrying that team.

It's a short week. I would just stay the heck away from this game. What do you think? Well, my question to the former player is, would you rather, who has the advantage knowing that there are two disadvantages here? The Ravens or the Dolphins only get three or so days to prepare for Lamar Jackson after facing Tyrod and slash Davis Mills. So they don't get a lot of prep time, but also the Ravens played this overtime game against the Vikings. That was crazy. So they played and that was a full overtime.

Basically, which, which, which is the worst situation to be in. Well, you've taken into account too, like what, what these rosters are,

right? What the age of these players are playing the Ravens on a short week for defensively for the dolphins can be really tough to do, but the, but then the Ravens on a short week defensively for the Dolphins can be really tough to do. But then the Ravens are beat up. They have a bunch of injuries. They're on the road. It's going to be a little warmer than they're used to. It's just why this game, I think, to me,

is tough to wager on because all these different things kind of contradict each other. And it's tough to decide which way to go here. Yeah. Well, this is a terrible game. But I will say uh baltimore owns miami harbaugh nine and oh against the spread against miami the last three times they played the final scores were 38 6 48 40 nothing and 59 10 lamar is from miami uh we don't know who's going to play quarterback for the dolphins this week so it feels like one of those games where it's like

this could be the, that like Raven steamroll that we sometimes see when they play these ass teams. Yeah. So that's all my mind. I think this is a pass for us, but I'm going to put this in the hopper for when I asked about survivor throughout the show.

So that's a pass moving on to Sunday. Speaking of past the bills and the jets we're seeing 12 and a half or 11 and a half, somewhere in between there, somewhere. We're seeing that we're not wasting our time with this wager. Yeah, let's save some time. If you had to pick? I would pick the Bills to cover if I had to pick. Yeah, I do too.

I think everyone's a little too high on the Jets, but we'll let you guys handle that one for us. Oh, God. Bucks at the football team jesus christ these guys are so bad this week oh my god i i cannot bet washington plus nine here i just can't do it i i you're gonna force me to do this matt no i i can't i like everything it tells you to do it but i can't like 90 of the money on the bucks is a road favorite they haven't covered on the road once this entire season washington off a buy both of them off a buy tampa off a buy and a loss this line hasn't moved despite every single person betting on the bucks like it's a trap but i cannot do it i cannot bet washington pass i'm gonna put it on the maybe list

because you know it you know that this is what we have what we like oh geez me to put it on the maybe list because you know it. You know that this is what we have. What we like. Oh, geez. I'm put on the maybe list. Washington plus nine. We bet them every week and they never cover. We're 0-3 pick in Washington this year. You know, Tampa, Gronk and AB might be out. They have some tight end issues.

Like it. Let's get to the next game because this game again is just so crappy falcons of cowboys uh the cowboys are laying eight is what we've got here this has moved around a bit uh you'll probably get some some somewhere close to there let's call it eight what do you think wow this is up to 10 in some places well i think i thought we can't we are luck with atlanta just was one week like one week of a luck of Atlanta luck. Anything about the Cowboys when Teron Smith is playing their left tackle

they're 79 and 61 when he's out there 13 and 15 like there's not as good of Teron Smith is not playing. He's not scheduled. I think to play as if as of Wednesday when we record this, I would actually lean Dallas here coming off a big bounce back situation and Atlanta just it's not great uh

but Matt Ryan's playing better of late I don't think this is a play for me dude I I can't I have nothing here let me let me try to convince you especially if we can get eight which we're seeing is is the line at DraftKings but at points bet it's 10 so like if you look around there's lots of different numbers uh this is the week where the public is gonna love the underdogs like the last week the underdogs cleaned up we saw dallas lay an egg knock everyone out of their survivor pools against this denver team and everyone's like well dallas is bad and atlanta is good may i remind you atlanta last week beat trevor simeon by two points two weeks ago they lost to carolina at home the week before that they beatimeon by two points. Two weeks ago, they lost to Carolina at home.

The week before that, they beat the Dolphins by two. And the week before that, they beat the Zach Wilson Jets by seven. That's their hot streak. Like this team sucks. This is a great chance to get Dallas off of off a low point. McCarthy 60% straight up after a loss. He's going to end up. They're going to win this game.

If we're getting eight, that to me just feels like a layup. I think this Falcon team is trash and now's the time to sell high on them. Well, I don't have a great opinion on a lot of these games. So if you feel strongly about Dallas minus eight, I am all, they're going to bounce back.

They're not going to play as well as bad as they did last week. They got embarrassed. They're home again against a bad team. I'll put dallas in here fine with me i'll take it but they ended just one thing well they quarter errol patterson is good kyle pitts is good too that's it that's their team like good luck yeah the next game is is interesting though i want to get to this game okay great so this is tennessee

hosting the saints uh two and a half is the number here. There's threes out there, too. So it's two and a half or three. I don't have the Saints plus three in this game. This is a very fishy line for a reason, guys, because they're telling you Tennessee is not as good as their win streak has been. I know we talk about DVOA a lot, right? Football Outsiders metric of measuring team success. Tennessee is only 14th, guys.

They're 14th for a reason. New Orleans is eighth. Now, offensively, New Orleans is 17th. Defensive only 14th, guys. They're 14th for a reason. New Orleans is 8th. Now, offensively, New Orleans is 17th. Defensively, they're 3rd. Tennessee just won a game with 196 yards on offense. They got gifted two touchdowns by Matt Stafford. The Saints aren't going to gift them touchdowns in this game, even with Trevor Simeon playing.

This is Vegas telling you that these teams on a neutral field are close to being even. I'm telling you, I love New Orleans here. Everyone's high on Tennessee right now. They're AFC favorites, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. They're giving up more yards per play on defense than yards per play on offense.

That's very rare for a 7-2 team. I really like the Saints in this spot. I'll take the plus three. We can get plus three right now. Again, we're not locked into prices because there's no supercar that has numbers out yet. So I will take the plus three here in New Orleans.

Let's do it. I mean, this is just one of those that you have to just kind of trust yourself on, which maybe we shouldn't do. Tennessee has won and covered five straight. It's like at some point, the bloom's going to come off this rose that i think the one thing i've sort of wondered this is gonna be my philosophy for the rest of the

season jeff it seems like these teams were something like really uh potentially upsetting or or something that could really disrupt a team happens it seems like they win those teams win the next week right like the raiders and gruden they parted ways teams win the next week, right? Like the Raiders and Gruden, they parted ways. They won the next week. Like, I think it was right after the Urban Meyer thing. The Jags got their first win. Like, let's see if they can. The Titans can continue to win without Derrick Henry.

I don't think they can do it against a team that, by the way, is an incredible run defense. I have a hard time thinking that Tennessee is going to get as much going here. I'm with you, buddy. Saints are 3-0 this year when getting points as well. Give me the Saints. Cool. So Trevor Simeon on the road. Check.

Here we go. We're riding the Simeon roller coaster. Although maybe it's Taysom Hill. Who knows? AFC South battle battle we talk about this one colts jags uh colts land 10 or 10 and a half yeah i kind of like the colts me too i know i know because this is this is right right jacksonville jacksonville this win like jacksonville's not good and the culture playingts are playing good football. I mean, if Carson, it's just, they're going to run the ball

the entire game on this team, right? That's what it is. Like, it's avoiding that Carson Wentz stupid play. And they can avoid that by just rushing the ball the entire game on the Jacksonville defense. Jacksonville is not very good against the run. Like, I, actually, they actually not half bad against the run the 32nd against the pass by the way

is Jacksonville's defense I had those stats mixed up I like the culture minus the 10 buddy yeah if we can get the 10 let's let's hammer it Colts 4-0 against the spread against teams with a losing record this year they had blowouts against the Texans Jets

Dolphins and the Jags are had blowouts against the texans jets dolphins and the the jags are owing for against the spread after and against the spread win which they had last week obviously against buffalo so i think the trends work out and i you know we don't have to watch it we can just bet on it that's fine uh yes so i'll take the minus 10 here if you have any more notes here on this game i could find um yeah i mean coltts got a little bit of rest as well, right? Like, good rest. Their defense is able to shut down this rushing attack. I think it's just a rough game on the road for Jacksonville.

Good note here from Action Labs. A double-digit underdog that wins a close game. The next week, they're 1-7 against the spread. So, a good spot to fade Jacksonville. I like it i like it all right let's continue uh what do we have next here uh lions at steelers to well dude do not make me do this this is the steelers by eight i i will not i will not do it jeff all right well let's pass on destroy plus eight let's continue on then unless you want to take Pittsburgh minus the eight. Like, no, I'm open to that.

No, absolutely not. Jeff, I want to say this just for the listeners. No, not at all. 50% split on the bets and the money here. 40% of the bets on Pittsburgh. 95% of the money. Outrageous. The Lions haven't scored more than 20 since that crazy week one game.

They haven't scored more than 17 outdoors on the road this entire season. Golf gets worse later in the year every season. I just I don't buy it. I don't think this is the Lions week. Do you want maybe Pittsburgh plus it? I mean, if you're on the Lions, let's pass it. But I that's this feels like a teaser for Pittsburgh. If you're I mean, there's going to be a million.

All right. Look, I mean, you's going to be a million teasers this week. Look, I mean, you're definitely right about that. The Steelers are 2-6, though, covering at home in the last eight contests or 1-3 this year. I mean, they just found ways to keep teams in games, which kind of worries me. That's fine. For covering games. That's my concern.

But I'm tired of betting on the Lions. I'm like, this is the week they're going to do it. agree i'm just not i'm just not gonna bet pittsburgh i just didn't want to bet the lions that's why i had all that prepared let's move on okay next up uh browns and patriots patriots one and a half points short home favorites this line's gonna move because of all the browns covet stuff but we're we have one and a half i like doing one before this buddy um i use bill belichick against baker mayfield that's what we're going with here um yeah the browns can run the football but the patriots defense guys don't look now pretty freaking good like they're playing they're

playing a lot better lately and they're gonna find ways to shut down this run game uh they're fifth in dva by the way as a defense um they're really good against the pass they're fifth in DVOA by the way as a defense they're really good against the pass they're okay against the run Mac Jones is playing much better football lately he's getting it done now the Browns defense had their best game really their secondary had their best game of the season last week so maybe that's a cause

for concern if you like New England here but I am totally okay with taking New England minus the point and a half I just like them in this spot. What do you think? Here's what I think. Belichick as a short home favorite.

Baker Mayfield after a blowout win. And Nick Chubb with COVID might not play. By far the Browns' best player. This is a hammer for New England, no doubt. Yeah. And you mentioned there's a cycle with with kind of Baker right like he plays plays poorly everyone criticizes him then he plays well then he plays poorly again right uh we're kind of in that mode now plus look

the Bengals might not actually be any good uh their total officially rankings are in the 20s and the Browns this year have not finished games well against teams with a pulse right with the cart with the cardinals they've blown out but chiefs and and um the chargers like i think new england is playing good football right now i think the browns is a short road favorite i'm not putting money on them no chance all right next up into it uh i'm curious what your take is on this one minnesota at the chargers the chargers are laying three two teams that i don't think anyone has a real good handle on right now yeah i really don't either i i mean i i think i would i would begrudgingly lean towards um no no one i know

what in this game like i don't like i mean the chargers rush defense is brutal the vikings just aren't very good as a team they They keep finding ways to lose games, but the Chargers, I just don't trust them quite yet. I don't either. I actually kind of like Minnesota here because of that. The Sharps, by the way, are clobbering this. They're hitting the Chargers super hard. The Chargers?

Yeah, which I find really surprising. The Chargers just don't look right to me i know that's not like the best analysis anyone's ever heard but it just feels like they haven't had a good game in in weeks in minnesota like every single week it comes down to the end of the game the chargers got kind of lucky last week they have a new kicker like that that they got a game kick out of that are we sure that that's going to happen again there's no home field advantage for la uh the thing that the chargers do terribly is the one thing that the vikings do well which is run defend the run in the chargers case you know dalvin cook that i feel like this is the dalvin cook fantasy week where he puts up like 28 points

and that's you know the talk of next week that's just feelings though like i i don't have any great you know analysis here the vikings are kind of a mess they have a tough covid situation they have a player in the hospital with covid and harrison smith's unvaxxed and coming back like that that locker room feels like a little bit of a mess but yeah i still kind of like them plus three here i think we'll put them in the maybe pocket i don't feel great about the vikings here yeah pass all right uh it should be a fun game though this one is tough to read because we don't know who's playing as we're recording this feel great about the Vikings here. Yeah. Pass. All right. It should be a fun game, though. This one is tough to read because we don't know who's

playing as we're recording this, but it's Carolina and maybe PJ Walker at the Cardinals and maybe Kyler Murray, maybe Cole McCoy. Ten and a half is the line we're getting. Should we just save time and pass this one? Yeah, we don't even know who's playing quarterback for each team. Matt Rule said that he's not sure

that it's going to be Sam Darnold. I think we pass this game and for time, move it along. Yeah, let don't even know who's playing quarterback for each team. So Matt Rule said that he's not sure that it's going to be Sam Darnold. So I think we pass this game and for time, move it along. Yeah, let's do it. So the next one's Philly at Denver. Denver off a huge win, laying three to Philly. What do you think? I have a great feel for this. Eagles are better lately.

They're playing some better football. But what is Denver? What is this Denver team? This is a standard minus three home line for denver i don't see value either direction i i don't know much about i i just think we stay away from this game buddy there's nothing here for me yeah i i right like what what what's your take on either side i don't have a great one i i just i think that that I can't tell if like Denver's overrated or if they actually like kind of regressed to like their mean from the beginning of the season last week.

I think Philly's terrible. And we've seen like with the NFC East playing out of division, the other teams just kind of beat up on them. But I don't know. This is a pass. If anything, I would take Denver and you could probably get them two and a half. I see that some places, but that's still a pass. Yeah, I'm going to pass on that one.

Speaking of passes, another game where we don't know what the quarterback situation is. It looks like Russell Wilson is back, according to his weird succession-themed Instagram video from the weekend. His Seahawks are going to Green Bay to play maybe Aaron Rodgers. The Packers, accordingly, are priced at minus three and a half. I mean, I think it's kind of irresponsible to make a pick on Wednesday on this one, right? Yeah, but I think you would pick Seattle, right? I mean, you just don't know what's happening. Russell Wilson off a figure injury.

Rodgers has been out because of COVID. Is he back this week? Is he not? Has he practiced this week? Has he not? What's Russell Wilson's finger like? I would lean to Seattle here, but the public's on a road favorite like

this too. You're right, Matt. It would be irresponsible to make this wager. It would. I will say, though, couldn't you see a world where Matt LaFleur like, if I were him, I would say Jordan Love is playing this week.

We need to see more out of them. It's week 10. It's not the playoffs. Aaron hasn't practiced. We need to make sure that he's in good condition. And they got to see if Jordan loves anything. Like we've seen quarterbacks take a dump in their first start and then actually come out and be good. I think that they, I think they owe it to themselves to see more of love. And by the way, if that pisses off Rogers, that only makes him better. Every time he's really angry, he ends up playing better anyway. So I think that's what they should do.

That would be, then I'd take Seattle. Yeah, well, obviously in that case. But I'm saying that's what I would do if I were Matt. I'm with you, yeah. All right. I didn't totally get a hot reaction out of that like I thought I would. But we'll move on. Let's move to the Sunday night game. Your Kansas City chiefs go ahead would you what do you want me to

say after that game i don't know i thought i thought my half-baked theory would get a rise i think you're right though be irresponsible to wager on the game like that's that simple fair enough your kansas city chiefs are going to las vegas uh where we would go and lose lots of money uh the chiefs are favored on the road, two and a half points. Gross, gross, gross, gross. Just even just supremely gross game. Chiefs defense, by the way, is playing a little bit better. They've made some personnel changes.

They put Chris Jones back inside, got rid of Sorensen, played Thornhill more, played game more, got healthier with Sneem and whatnot. Raiders kind of looked awful last week. York Carr looked off. Run game was fine. Defensively, they let Daniel Jones kind of go up and down

the field on them. But the thing about this, Matt, is you cannot bet on the Chiefs right now because what offense are we getting? They're two up and down. You just can't do it.

I would just stay away from this guy. I wouldn't bet the Raiders. I would not bet the Chiefs. Yeah, I feel like you could say the same about the raiders it's like you can't bet them that team's gone through a lot like i i just don't know how to how you find an edge on either side here it does seem to me though that they're basically saying like come on like take the chiefs like you guys want to like it's just a matter of time i think before they start to pop off on offense again but i i don't know this doesn't feel like the week yeah monday night game is an interesting one it's the rams at the 49ers

rams getting all the bets and all the money uh they are where are we getting four three and a half is the current line there oh man niners home dogs yeah let say this. It doesn't feel like you have a super outtake on this one. Garoppolo, as the starter, has actually never lost to the Rams

with Shanahan. And Nick Mullins actually beat the Rams last year. This is one of those like weird divisional, like one team just kind of owns the other.

The 49ers only losses have been when it's been like Beathard or somebody starting. The problem with this of the Niners, and this is a divisional game where we gladly would take them,

is I don't think they're any good. Like, that's the problem. They're just not any good. They're really not. And I would love to take a divisional opponent here, a divisional dog at home that needs to win they need to win this game matt yeah but yikes bro like they're just i i i i just can't do it i just can't yeah this is like all the warning flags it's like the a public road dog in the division they're getting 90 of the

bets like those teams always like this was our tampa thing earlier it's like those teams never outright winning in cover just never happens never happens no but never what is what are the 49ers they're like you never know who's playing for them their team is so banged up like i kyle shanahan the that could be the thing that happens this week is everyone's kind of popping off about what a kind of a coach he is it's like this could be the thing that happens this week is everyone's kind of popping off about what kind of a coach he is. It's like this could be the week where they kind of figure something out just because of that. But I don't have enough faith in it. I agree.

So we only have four right now. Dallas minus eight. New Orleans plus three. Indy minus ten. New England minus a point and a half. There's talk of Alvin Kamara being hurt for the Saints, by the way, as we're doing this on Twitter. So just be mindful of that. This is, as usual, I have my Twitter, I have Jeff Schwartz.

You can go there and we might change a pick if we have injuries. So the other maybes were Washington plus nine, Detroit minus eight, Minnesota plus three. What about the Ravens land seven and a half? You think so? Should we even consider it? I don't know. Putting it out there.

I mean, I think that's fair. I just have had – the Ravens have just had some concerns, I think. Just, I don't know. So here's what we're deciding between Washington, Baltimore, and what else are we looking at? Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh is out. Pittsburgh is out. You don't want them?

You don't want me to take them. No, I just didn't want to take Detroit. Detroit sucks. I'm just tired. I'm tired of taking the Washingtons and the Lions. I'm just tired of it. We do it every week and it never works. We can take a Thursday night game. That's fine. It's just a bad week, never works. We can take a Thursday night game. That's fine. I don't like it.

I mean, it's just a bad week, dude. Do we just take Washington because of the number? The nine and a half? Oh my God. I just. I don't want to. This has nothing to do with whether I'm a fan of them or not. The Bucs have not covered on the road this season.

Correct. Both off a bye. Godwin didn't practice today. Tampa's beat up. They have some issues in their pass defense, right? Well, both do. Washington has the worst in the league. This could be the Brady MVP statement game,

but it also could be the let's just get out of this with a win. Yeah. I don't think. Oh, geez. This is not good. We're just humming a great with a win. Yeah. I don't think. Oh, geez. This is not good. We're just humming. Great podcast, right? Yeah.

The Ravens line scares me. I mean, traditionally, Washington's the way to go here, right? I mean, that's the line to take. Yeah. Or do we just take the Vikings plus the three and just suck it up and deal with it? Yeah. We can do that. Your call.

Your show. You think Minnesota's the way to go? I just hate betting on Washington. They suck. I mean, I just, I'm tired of it. I'm tired of betting on them. Let's take Minnesota then. Let's do it.

All right. Yeah, this means Washington will cover. This is so annoying. Yeah, but you're right. Dallas minus eight, New Orleans plus three, India minus 10, New England minus a point and a half, and Minnesota plus three. Okay. Hey, can you give me a survivor pick?

It's either Baltimore, Dallas, or Tampa. But Tampa's out. It's Baltimore or Dallas. Probably Dallas, right? I don't know. I'm curious. Take Baltimore then. If you have an opinion. Dallas has a bunch of NFC East opponents coming up.

Baltimore doesn't have an easy schedule from here. I just feel like they could go into Baltimore or into Miami and just wax them. That's where they do their worst damage. They haven't done that this year, though. That's my concern. They haven't been that team so far this year. I know.

All right. Well, let's announce our five gross picks. Dallas minus eight. New Orleans plus three. India minus ten. New England minus a point and a half. Minnesota plus three. These picks are brought to you by the Varsity Podcast Network,

by the way. I'm sure they're very happy to sponsor them. It's Varsity Podcast Network's fault, by the way, if we lose these wagers. All right, buddy. Well, I like my Pac-12 picks as usual. I like my college basketball pick, UCLA. That's right.

Terps land 23. These picks are – God bless the NFL. The NFL has been – the thing about there is that everyone has sucked this year in the NFL. It's not just like us. It's everybody. So I don't feel as bad as I would in most years being bad. But we'll work our way out of it. Lots of football.

All right, everyone. Have a great weekend. We're Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Talk to you guys on Monday. Have a great one, everybody.