Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 12 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 11

Episode Date: November 18, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back with their picks from the upcoming weekend of football, starting with Saturday’s four biggest college football matchups. Geoff is taking the Buckeyes to crush Michigan State in a matchup of top 7 teams, listen to hear his picks for Oregon at Utah, UCLA vs USC, and Wake Forest at Clemson.Geoff and Matt look at the spreads of every game on the slate for week 11 of the NFL season,  and highlight a few they’re betting on (Ravens at Bears, Cowboys at Chiefs) and a few they’re staying away from (anything remotely related to the Jets).Make sure to rate the podcast if you’ve enjoyed listening this season, and if you’re using iTunes, leave a comment for a chance to be featured on a mailbag segment! Have you been making money off Geoff’s Pac 12 picks? He wants to hear about it!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday november 18th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz this morning you were powered by the varsity podcast network it is our gambling wagering preview for the weekend and guess what we won last weekend matt four and one i am now 26 and nine in the season and pack 12 plays which i know enthuses everyone. And yeah, man, we are 21 and 29. So we only need about eight more of those to get back to 500. We're like the Chiefs. We're back?

Question mark? No one actually knows. Let's see if we handle our business this week. Someone asked me last week, like, why is this NFL season so hard to gamble on? I'm like, because nothing's the same there each week. That's the problem. Nothing's the same each week. So

the trends you have carrying over, you're like, ah, that might not be the same that happens this week. But nonetheless, we'll get to the National Football League in a second. Also, by the way, I am one of the only in college basketball. I gave you guys UCLA Villanova Friday night. They won overtime. That game ended about 2 a.m. Eastern. So

for those who watched it out east, good for you guys. Bruins in the win column so far in a big game. All right, let's get to college football. We're going to start a big game in the Midwest, Ohio State and Michigan State. Michigan State's getting 19 points, somewhere around there. And I tried, Matt, to find a way to take Michigan State. I tried my best because Dawg getting big points. The Ohio State's's gonna kick their butts

um michigan state defensively is just not capable of keeping up with ohio state if ohio state plays up to their standard and their standards like 42 points a game 45 points a game michigan state is explosive on offense somewhat but against better teams they just i i just have a hard time seeing them score 24 points when ohio state puts up you know 45 to 52 ohio state is um number one in the country in points per drive on offense they're number 20th on defense or second in the country in special teams uh michigan state by the way is 33rd in points per drive on offense, 38th on defense. But they're dead last in the country in plays per game on defense, and they're 122nd in three and out percentage.

You're not beating Ohio State unless you get off the field. And Michigan State just can't do that. They can't get off the field. So I'll go Ohio State to cover here. Do you have any thoughts? No, great nugget here. Ohio State at home, when they've played ranked opponents in the Big Ten at home, they've won 24 straight. That's since 2015. And they've won those games by an average of 22 points. So that's in line with this game here. The Sharps are with you. Small difference. Everybody's betting Michigan State on the road at about 80 clip that always goes poorly for the public so i guess you gotta just hold your nose and lay the 19 here so i i think it's the

right play would you this game's on the on the rundown but since i know it means a lot to you uh is michigan in trouble at maryland look at the Look, you never want to go against Mike Loxley at Capital One Field where dozens of Maryland faithful will be in attendance, I'm sure. What's the line there? 14 and a half? Is that what you're seeing?

I would take Michigan, yeah. Yeah, I would probably take Michigan too. Maryland's banged up. They crush bad teams. Maryland has not had a good game in weeks when's the last time you've been to a maryland home football game when i went there yeah it's been a while was it what how was the atmosphere at a maryland home football game not as good as the basketball well i'll tell you that were were they were you there when they had the weird

under armor helmets i don't like those helmets. The State Flag helmets. I was there. They had, yes, I was there for that. I was there. I saw some really good teams and players. I was there in the Darius Hayward Bay, the Torrey Smith era. We had some pretty bad quarterbacks, but explosive wide receivers. Stephon Diggs came right when I left. Weird amount of good pro players in there. Was Ralph Fridgen the head coach for some of it

yep and then we had randy edsel who then went back to yukon and turned that into the worst program in the country well yeah he's he's out the thing about about ralph you got your likes to eat man it like if you see if you're a player and your coach tells you to lose weight uh-huh and he is 150 pounds overweight do you take him serious i'm being serious like if someone told you hey you need to lose weight you're like well you're fat as hell why should i lose weight like as a player does that motivate you you think i'm just curious i have no i don't know how to answer that i played with andy reed and it was great because he just we laughed about it like he never told us to lose weight he ever told me like he never told

him to lose weight he just he just fed us hamburgers and he was the best we loved it for that so if you played with like cliff kingsbury he'd be like listen let's let's trim down let's slick back yeah all right well let's let's make our house look like maybe a porn movie set like where i do the draft like there's lots of you know feedback he could give you based on that just i'm just asking a question i mean it's just you know if you were a player would you if your coach was sloppy would you take would you take nutrition advice from him these are great questions yeah okay moving on um oregon utah um i've had three people today alone ask me why utah's favorite in this game they're favored by three at home yeah why are they favored I don't know because no one watches football out west.

Oregon's going to win this game. They're going to cover, obviously, because they're going to win this game. I talked about this a couple times this year. Ohio State game, UCLA game. Oregon are glory hounds, boys. They play in big games much better than they do at home against Arizona. This is a big game, right? It's national TV, 7.30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

It's an important game. They respect Utah. And they need to win this game to clinch a Pac-12 North. They need to win this game to keep the playoff alive, playoff hopes alive as they are still the third-ranked team in the country. The teams are strikingly similar, though. They are tied in points per drive on offense and points per drive on defense and points per drive on defense.

13th and 52nd. Very, very similar football teams. The difference comes in this. One special teams. Utah's 123rd in special teams. Not good. And this is the worst special teams they've had under Kyle Whittingham. It's actually strikingly odd that they've spent on special teams. And Oregon's fifth in the country in special teams.

That's a big difference when you have two teams that are pretty even. Secondly, it's a talent difference. Oregon's more talented, and they're more physical in the trenches. And Utah has not seen a team like Oregon since maybe San Diego State, one that can match up with them in the trenches and physically get after them, which is what Oregon can do. Now, there's always concern with Oregon's quarterback, Anthony Brown. He's going to have one drive, two drives,

one quarter where it's just not very good and Oregon has to withstand that. But he's also resilient. They're down 9-3 to Washington, 14-0 to UCLA. Came back and won those games. So I'm going Oregon here. I wrote an article for Fox Sports.

It's 1,600 words. You can go read all of it. But Oregon's going to win this football game. Let's stay out west for a Sports. It's 1,600 words. You can go read all of it. But Oregon's winning this football game. Let's stay out west for a while. One quick nugget there. I was wondering, has Oregon even been an underdog this year, given how good they've been? They have been an underdog. This is their third game, and they won the previous two outright.

So it bodes well here. At Ohio State, at UCLA. Those are the two games. Same thing happened for UCLA week. Everyone's like, oh, UCLA, UCLA. And it'scla and it's like yeah yeah organs they play better in big games it's a big game joe moore head the office coordinator will have something up and ready to go getting the physicality of organ hard to match out west and 2019 this utah team was better and organ just manhandled them at the line of scrimmage all right let's let's stick out west um

usually it's favored by three over USC. Don't get it. USC's awful. They have not played well at home this season. The Coliseum will be dead at home this year. They have lost to Stanford, Oregon State, Utah, and beat Arizona by seven.

And actually, Maryland might beat Arizona. That's how bad Arizona is. So, they're just lifeless right now. They're completely lifeless. Their best player, Drake London, is a wide receiver. He's been out for the last five quarters. Drake London has missed the last five quarters. He's been targeted 123 times, even though he has not played in the last five quarters.

The next highest guy is 68. He is their offense. He's not playing. USC cannot stop the run. You just have to run the ball very well. I think it's a tough game for the Trojans. The Bruins win this by about 10 or more. Lastly, lastly here, we're going to Wake Forest at Clemson.

Give me Clemson here minus the four and a half. I feel like we got to the point now where it's okay to bet on Clemson. Like we went for a long time where they're not covering the spread. They're kind of been dilly-dallying. Do you know if they win the last two games, they can end up at 10-3? Wow. Well, that and a bowl win. This game,

South Carolina, and then a bowl win puts them at 10-3. Jeez. For like their worst season. It feels like we wrote them off in week two. Yeah. they're third in the country on defense offensively they they're a mess look they're working through some things and not basically offensively but guess what wake forest they can score on offense but they don't get to clemson's defense they can't yeah and wake forest's defense is right to 79th in country

they're not good they're 80 first and points per. I think Clemson wins this game by touchdown or more. I'll take the minus 4.5 here. A big game this weekend in the ACC. So that's where we sit for the college games. Let's get to the National Football League. Man, I like that one. Even though it's the ACC and not the Pac-12, I think I might tell you there.

Right? Yeah. It's good, yeah. We've got a really good slate in the nfl too this week um a bunch of games i feel like things are starting to crystallize for me a little bit uh which is a good way to jinx both of us uh knocking wood uh the thursday game this week after last week's thursday game knocked me out of survivor guys so i just wanted to share that update this week it's patriots at falcons uh the falcons are plus seven at home probably without cordero patterson are we touching this well in which direction are we touching this uh i don't falcons plus seven right but we're not yeah okay if because the patriots i i'm not

trusting them laying seven on the road are you no absolutely not no yeah i don't think so uh yeah this is just a straight pass i i think atlanta without patterson is like what what exactly can they do on offense they're like their their offense has just been so terrible to watch all season i i want no part of this uh yeah i'm with you yep not happening cool uh moving to sunday the saints are going to philly uh philly's laying one this one's moved around all over the place uh we'll call it one do we like a side here i don't know about this philly team man um i would actually lean new orleans again in this game we got new orleans last week

they did they did a good job for us. I mean, Trevor Simeon is playing good enough. I believe Alvin Kamara is back this week. Otherwise, this line would probably be more. I would imagine, right? I mean, I think he's back this week. And New Orleans plays really good defense. Dude, they weirdly enough almost win more without Drew Brees

than they have with Drew Brees. Philly still, I think defensively has some concerns. Look, their offensive line is good. Jalen Hurts is doing a good job, but the Saints defense guys is really good. And again, they play almost better as a team knowing that the whole team has to contribute to make plays. I'd be okay if New Orleans was one of our plays this week.

Me too. New Orleans, I feel like they have a tough game every week. Philly's tough. I don't know if they're very good, but they're just tough to beat for some reason. Saints are great after a loss. They were last week, too. Historically, against the spread, Sean Payton's one of the best of all time. They're 3-0 this season against the spread after a loss.

Philly, meanwhile, can't win at home. They've only won on the road this season, which I find very curious. But the main thing is the Saints are great at stopping the run, which has been the Eagles' new lifeblood, number one rush D in DVOA. I think this is a slam dunk, man. I think New Orleans is definitely the right player.

Yeah, I'm going New Orleans. Again, a good defense, good special teams, good coaching. Alvin Kamara, I think, is back, right? I mean, obviously, this is Wednesday. Yeah, he's questionable still. It's hard to tell if he's back this week. But look, they managed to cover a game last weekend without him. Yeah, Ingram looks – I mean, Ingram is a very, very serviceable backup.

They're an unbelievably resilient team, man. They're on their third quarterback. Kamara's their best player. No Michael Thomas this year. Like, they've been damn good. Yeah. All right. All right, moving moving on saints are in for now uh dolphins at jets god joe flacco probably starting not probably he is starting oh i'm not touching this game with a 10 foot poles our buddy dave damage success that's right although i would say it would be the dolphins

right and like this is this is one of those like the dolphins are probably going to cover this and we're going to look up in a few weeks and be like huh the dolphins are 500 against the spread this year like how did they do that and it's games like this but yeah exactly 100 agreed yes not the the dolphins and look they're starting to flack though the jets are because the dolphins pressure we saw um you know the pressure they brought against uh lamar jackson the ravens but i don't trust they're just the dolphins are on there does not to be trusted yeah agreed um god as much as i would like the chance to bet against joe flacco man we're missing out i don't know i don't want to watch this game or think about this game ever again so let's just boot it into the stratosphere

and talk about the epic clash the ron river Bowl, the Washington football team at the Panthers. The Panthers are three and a half point favorites. Are we back on Washington? We've been off of them all year. Rightfully. Their defense has gotten better lately. Yeah. Right.

Offensive with Tyler Heineke. Heineke has been... I'm just worried about the Panthers defensively being really good. And if Cam does bring a little bit more juice to this offense, they're going to win this game. I don't know, man. It's not my favorite. I...

Oh, God. Listen. Why do we think Cam Newton brings them anything? This guy was not on an NFL roster until Week 10 when Sam Darnold had to go down and they didn't have confidence in PJ Walker. So they signed Cam Newton off the street who has two plays at the one and scores.

Like, okay, let's see if he can play a full game. Fair enough. I think, look, I think Washington, I think this line is a little bit higher because of Chase Young. I would give the unfortunate reminder that Chase Young only has a sack and a half this year and has basically been a non-factor in every game, I would say, as a guy who's watched a bunch of them. The Panthers, Washington's losses this year are all against teams that are 500 or better. They're all playoff teams with the exception of the Broncos,

the Chiefs, the Packers, the Saints, the Chargers, the Bills. This would be their worst loss. Carolina's beat the Jets, Texans, Falcons, Colt McCoy, and the Cardinals, and the Saints was their only good win. I just think that this is just an artificially inflated line because of Cam Newton ripping his helmet off and Chase Young being good last year. I just think this is free points.

So Washington's pass rush is ranked fifth by Pro Football Focus, even though, to your point, Chase Young has not been as good as we thought. And the Panthers' pass blocking unit is 26. If you're looking for an advantage there, you have advantage certainly in the trenches. I think Washington's football team, yeah, Washington football team is the second best pass blocking unit according to –

and actually they're really good at run-blocking too. So they're seventh in run-blocking and third, I believe, second in pass protection. The Panthers' pass rush is just okay. I mean, they get home a lot of times with pressure, right? And they don't tackle very well. Actually, they're the – what were they for tackling? The 29th worst team in tackling.

All right, three and a half. You get the hook there as well. Gibson looks like he might have gotten a little healthy with some rest. I think his playing through that injury was the key to that offense. I think I'm good with Washington here. I feel like they might turn it around a little bit after the bye week. I'm good with that. Let's do it.

Oh, man. I don't know what I just talked ourselves into. Colts at Bills is our next game. The Bills are laying seven to Carson Wentz. Just huge yikes. No chance in hell I'm playing any one of your sides in this game. Not Buffalo. Their offense is so untrustworthy sometimes.

Are they, though? I mean, of course they had the egg that they laid against Jacksonville. But other than that, they played nine games this year. Six have been blowout wins. Like, they lost to the Steelers. They got beat by Tennessee. They laid an egg against Jacksonville. And they've blown everyone else out.

Like, no, Darius Leonard is either. He hasn't practiced. We don't know if he's going to play. late in against jacksonville and they've blown everyone else out like no darius darius leonard is either he hasn't practiced we don't know if he's gonna play when he doesn't play their defense sucks quentin nelson's been hurt uh he didn't practice today wednesday either we're going carson wentz outside against buffalo who's underpriced still because of because no one trusts them after two weeks ago. We hate the Colts. I felt like you were going to come out of the gates strong for Buffalo here. Why not Buffalo?

Yeah, I could see Buffalo here. No one loves seven. The Colts aren't. Seven's better than seven and a half. Yep. Buffalo's number one in DVOA, the 14th in offense, first on defense uh you mentioned the injuries carson went on the yeah you know what i'm with you here right carson what's on the road against a good defense like he's bound to throw the ball away once or twice all right screw it let's do it i'll put in the maybes the maybes for now all we

have is we have one yes on new orleans i feel like. Colts 2-4 as an underdog this year, although they are good on the road. Eight of their last 10 they've covered on the road. Let's do that one as a maybe. I think we like the Saints the most, and Washington is in the mix. Okay, Detroit at Cleveland. I did a double take on this line.

It's 10 for Cleveland. We're assuming Baker's going to play through the injury. What's going on? Why is this 10? Well, because the Lions are undecided on their quarterback, I think. It's probably not Jared Goff, which might be better for them. What's going on there? He just hasn't practiced.

He's hurt, something like that. Tim Boyle. But Detroit is just, we keep betting on them, and we've picked the wrong week to bet on them, each single week. However, if Baker Mayfield's just beat up, but the Browns are going to run the football all day. Yeah, Chubbs should be back right from the COVID thing. Did we touch David Blau?

Who did you say it was? I already forget his name, and I just closed the tab. Hang on. It's Tim Boyle. I would love to pick the Lions. Tim Boyle. I mean, God, this is is lions can't run the ball like this the browns have played well against bad teams this year they played poorly against good teams i think we stay away from this game i think we like the

lions originally but i'm good with staying away yeah i'm fine let's let's get out of there no chance uh 49ers at jacksonville this is an interesting one. The 49ers are laying six on the road. What do you think? I mean, this is a spot where I think we would have taken Jacksonville pretty easily in the past, right? Road. You know, you got a road favorite here off a big win on Monday night going across the country to face Jacksonville. I feel like it's got to be Jacksonville, right? just like you blindly bet Jacksonville just deal with it yeah this is like a 50 difference in in spread and uh in money and bets this is the sharp play of the week it

looks like um but I don't like it I I just don Francisco is, I think San Francisco could actually turn this around a little bit. Granted, they looked great in a national primetime game. So that's why they're going to get a few extra points here, but Jacksonville is awful. I don't buy them at all. And I do think San Francisco is like, they just had a bunch of bad luck.

They haven't gotten up for games and maybe they turn things around. I have no interest in Jacksonville here. i kind of am tempted by the 49ers even though that's a very square and kind of we're not we're not taking the niners if anything we take jacksonville we're not taking the niners in this spot no short week big national tv wins on the road on the road like this is buddy jacksonville plus six is what we've always done. I know it's not a great year for that. But taking the Niners, who's a 500 team, is a touchdown favorite on the road after a big home win. Am I not in football? Absolutely not.

No. No 49ers here. It's a bad practice. It shouldn't be in our five. But if I had to pick this, I would definitely be taking the Niners. The Niners? Yeah. Oh, for sure.

Who are you? you I know I'm just saying like I I just can't do it with this Jacksonville team and I think the Niners remember at the beginning of the season we were all like the Niners are one of the best teams in the league it's I just kind of feel like they're going to regress back to that at some point yeah and Jacksonville's trash like I I just don't I don't know um speaking of trash the Texans are headed to Tennessee to beat the to play the best team in the league, question mark? The Titans, who are laying 10? God, what a game.

Interesting about this game. So Tennessee is the best record in football, but their DVOA is like, where is that right here? 18th here 18th 18th in DVOA and they have the best record in the NFL like there's gonna be

regression there they're so injured the regression's not happening this week though because we're not betting on Houston we're not we're not laying points

on Houston anymore we're just not doing it no chance they're off a they're off a buy I mean I don't think that matters very much for you here but um

oh man we're just what do you want to take houston kind of i just kind of forgot that it's not i didn't even consider this game but this is to rod taylor there's a great note in here jeff uh from our producer hank that the titans are averaging 229 yards per game of offense since derrick henry went down 229 yards of offense that would be definitely last in the league uh the Texans are 280 yards per game they are last in the league oh boy so I mean Tennessee's defense like they're just not gonna get up for all these games I I

don't know I don't I don't see them laying the smackdown on Terod Taylor, who we like to bet on in spots like this. It's just terrible. Why would we do this to ourselves, let alone our listeners? What's that now? 10.5? Yeah, I see it at 10.5 some places. Do we want to claim it's 10.5? It's 10.5 at BetMGM.

If we're taking this, we're claiming a half point for sure. I mean, I don't want this. Let's just, let's just move on. And if we need another, let's put in the babies.

There's not a lot of games I liked that are left. Yeah. I'm getting a little worried. We're not even to the four o'clocks yet. We got green Bay at Minnesota. This is a fascinating one. Uh, Minnesota plus two and a half,

which I feel like is maybe a little bit low, just based on how the public views Green Bay, who's nine and one against the spread this year. But I think we like Minnesota maybe. Because all the sharp money is coming in Minnesota. That's why it's open at three. It's a two and a half. This is a terrible number now at two and a half. But the right plays Minnesota.

Home divisional dog getting points. Yep. With a good offense. 100%. Yep. Good. With a good offense. 100%. Yep. Good offense. Good on defense. I had to rollercoaster to bet on them.

Don't get me wrong. And Aaron Rodgers owns this division. Packers are playing good football. Their A&L gets spread since week two. They've won 11 of their last 12 divisional matchups. But we're very good at picking divisional matchups this season. We're 14-6, according to our research team of not me or you. That's right.

Person to be unnamed. I'm going with the Vikings here, plus two and a half. I like it. Yeah. The thing that worries me is Minnesota has one of the worst secondaries in the league. No good corners. Play on Devontae Adams. God.

It's the right play. It's the right play. I mean, Minnesota's a good team they still are like playing for their lives this is a home divisional game you said it green bay is a little overrated and this year right with the way this year has been this is like minnesota wins this game everyone's like oh my god right the the packers they're done they're done like there's some stupid something stupid like that huh that's interesting right yeah i also think that they i kind of feel like i don't know last week they didn't seem afraid

like they've they've like had some weird ways they've coached the games like they were going for it on fourth downs like just jefferson was like really active like it just felt like they have the talent they just kind of need to get out of their own way so i i buy it i think it's i think it's a smart play all right let's put minnesota in at plus two and a half it just breaks my heart i wish it was plus three i know oh we're speaking of heartbreaking the bravens are playing the bears and someone out there is going to actually watch this full game uh the bears are plus six at home against baltimore lamar jack was sick. He did not practice today. Oh, geez.

Do we? We don't. Do we? Are you going to make me? The Ravens' defense is not very good. It stinks, dude. There's a lot of issues on that defense. They're 25th in DVOA.

Lamar Jackson's holding this team together with duct tape because of all the injuries they have. The Bears are off a bye, correct? Yep. And I... We got to do it, man. Six points.

Baltimore's not that good. Terrible is a favorite. One and six against the spread is a favorite, Baltimore. Bears five and two is a dog against the spread. This feels like a terrible game. We'll look up and be like, wait, did we pick this one this week? Did we cover this one? There are some times where I text you like, are we sure?

Which of the games we picked? I know because some of them are just so ugly. Chicago. I think Chicago is a pretty competent team and we're getting them at a good discount and I don't know what this line is with the Ravens. I don't know why people trust them. The Ravens, every week you never know what you're getting.

I don't see the Bears getting blown out at home. I actually think this is a smart play. All right, let's... I know, right? God. God help us. Oh, man. All right, Cin's... Ugh. I know, right? God. God help us. Oh, man. All right, Cincy at Las Vegas,

starting the 4 o'clock games here. The Raiders are plus one at home, and this game has serious implications. Like, a few weeks ago, these were two of the hottest teams in the league. I think we both saw this coming. But I don't know, man. Do you like either of these teams?

I would lean Bengals here, but I think that their shine, I mean, they're 25th in DVLA now. Their shine from early in the season has been worn off. They're off a bye. They've been embarrassed the last two games. But the Raiders at home, the Raiders haven't been good at home.

I don't know, man. I think this is one of, I would stay away from this game. What about, what do you think? Yeah, I think it's a stay away too. And I would be on the good home. I don't know, man. I think this is one of the... I would stay away from this game. What about... What do you think? Yeah, I think it's a stay away too. And I would be on the Raiders. I don't know why exactly they're home underdogs to the Bengals.

Like, I don't know. I just don't see a marked difference between these teams and Cincinnati going on the road. They haven't... I mean, they had a quality win. Was their last good win Baltimore? Let me see.

I think so. It just feels like they haven't won a game in like months. It's obviously not true. They lost, so their last four, they lost big to the Browns. They lost to the Jets. They blew out the Ravens and they blew out the Lions. It's like, so I feel like everyone's kind of thinking that they're the team that beat up on the Ravens,

who we just talked about being inconsistent. I don't know. It's a stay away. There's a couple games coming up that I think we really do like. Yeah, I think one of them is this one. This is Seattle hosting their rival Arizona Cardinals. Plus two and a half is the number we're getting now with the assumption that Kyler will play on Wednesday. Seattle.

Love Seattle here. Got to do it. Embarrassed. National TV embarrassment. Russell Wilson's putting an extra rehab this week. Getting ready to go. 19 and a half hours a day. I love Seattle here.

There's no way. The team is too prideful. Their coach is too good. Their quarterback is too good to just lay another freaking egg against the Cardinals. Plus, the Cardinals have not won, I believe, in Seattle. They don't win very often there, right? If I'm correct on that one. Yeah.

I mean, Seattle's record is not terribly great, which is kind of surprising. But I'm all in on Seattle. What about you? I'm with you. Other than, you know, there was a win. The Cardinals have turned this series around, but this has been an interesting... Actually, no. The Cardinals have had a weird history with the Seahawks, but that's sort of changed over the last couple of years. I just think that this is a situational play. Like the Cardinals are not good late in the

season under Kingsbury. We went over that a few weeks. I think we were a little earlier. I was a little early on that one. You're totally right. Russell Wilson is not going to look that bad again. Coming off the injury with not enough practice in really cold weather, Seattle will win this game. This is just one of those that they win or their season's over. So, you know, let's see it. This is a great chance for them. I'm in. Second worst record in the NFC, Seattle.

Pretty astonishing. Okay, man, game of the week, Cowboys-Chiefs. The Chiefs are laying two and a half. I have a feeling that, I mean, this is just going to be the top story of every single football rundown on Monday morning. What's the headline going to be? Are the Chiefs back or is Dallas for real? All right.

So we've seen this year that cover two, right? The too high look has really bothered the Chiefs this year. It has. And we saw the Raiders just not run a lot of it because that's not what they do. Guess who doesn't run a lot of cover too? Also, the Cowboys. They run a ton of man coverage. A ton of cover three.

I think I have the numbers right here. Yeah, they run 12% too high, 11% quarters, fourth most man in the NFL. Good luck running man coverage against the Chiefs. Single high man coverage. This game is under a field goal. We've been burned by Kansas City a bunch this year, but Dallas, guys, has covered way too many games

than they should in a normal year. I think the Chiefs are legit back puss, guys. The Chiefs' defense played a lot better lately. They're not allowing as many points. The rushing and passing are better. They've made some changes to their secondary. I am on the Chiefs here, and I'll go with it i think i like it i think i like it i had a feeling that this would be where you'd go i agree that the numbers just kind of have to at some point flip-flop with with the chiefs not covering at home and dallas just

covering every single game this will be a really interesting one I mean I I think the Clyde Edwards Hilaire he's he's probably coming back like I'm really curious how they use him it feels like the Chiefs have kind of figured something out with their running game maybe it's just Darrell Williams is good but like he had that great catch in the end zone that then that wheel route like maybe they got the monkey off of their backs or maybe they just played the Raiders who they always beat up on and will look like idiots but this is a huge spot for the chiefs who are traditionally excellent at home in a big spot with andy reed i think it's the smart play and we're getting under three i can't believe it but the chiefs maybe the chiefs are back let's do it

i'm in man i'm out under the kool-aid why not all right man All right, man. Let's do it. Let's win a Chiefs bet. Let's see if it happens. We've got two more games left here Sunday night. The Steelers are at the Chargers. The Chargers are laying five and a half. It's unclear as of tape time if Roethlisberger will play. They are preparing as if he will not play. But Tomlin says if he doesn't practice but is able to play, he will.

What do you think? Yeah, I think it's just a stay away for me because the Chargers defense is just not very good and I think the Pittsburgh is just going to try to ground the ball run the ball smart passes the Chargers offense just does not throw the ball downfield enough they kind of limit Herbert which is kind of funny

their pass rush is good the right side of the Chargers offense is too many points right side of the charge is off. It's a lot. It's just too many points. It's too many points without knowing if Big Ben's going to play or not. I think on Wednesday, it's just, it's not the call or we bet the Steelers. Those are the two calls. I think we bet the Steelers no matter what.

If, I mean, if Roethlisberger isn't playing, we should lay off of this. But I just think that this is the exact mike tomlin spot it's after a humiliating game it wasn't a loss but it feels like a huge loss going against the lions and tying they're always good as an underdog the chargers dude when is the last time you watched the chargers game and you're like they look great like they look terrible they haven't looked good in in months they their last game where i was like genuinely impressed with how they looked or anyone was i guess was when they beat the the browns in i think that was what like week four or week five like they haven't looked good in a really long time so i don't get this line they don't do well against the run which is going to be how the Steelers game plan

here because of uh you know the quarterback situation Najee Harris has been great Pittsburgh is one of the best teams of since Tomlin is there they are the best team after a loss and as an underdog uh against the spread I I just think that this is an absolute hammer spot for the for those Steelers I am with you on liking the Steelers. We just have a lot of maybes on here. We have to go through a lot of these to figure out which is our five going to be. Because I'm with you. I think the Steelers is a good play here.

All right, let's go to the last game, which I don't think we're going to have much on. No, I mean, it's the Giants at the Bucs. The Bucs are going to win this game, obviously, right? They're minus 11 at home. They are off two losses, two straight losses, one embarrassing one last week to my Washington football team. High five. But we're not taking the Bucs here, are we?

No, we're not. The Giants actually cover pretty well on the road, by the way, too. So, no, let's move on from this game. We've got to figure out what we're not. The Giants actually cover pretty well on the road, by the way, too. No, let's move on from this game. We've got to figure out what we're doing. So I have five wagers right now on the thought. I think we just like to yes. We'll go over them. Ready?

New Orleans plus one. Minnesota plus two and a half. Chicago plus six. Seattle plus two and a half. Kansas City minus two and a half. So that's four road teams, I mean, four home teams, three of them home dogs, New Orleans on the road, Kansas City at home is a short home favorite.

The other ones we said we would consider, Washington plus three and a half on the road at Carolina, Buffalo minus seven at home, Houston plus 10 and a half, and Pittsburgh plus the five and a half. Is there any changes you would like to make? Let's obviously take Houston out. Yeah, that's what I thought.

When I was reading that list, I was like, yep, all right. One of these is not like the other. Let's take Pittsburgh out for now, I assume because we don't know who the quarterback is. But I do like that. By the way, we've left in two games with

quarterback changes and we've won both of them or with injury like the saints we left in with camara injury news and dag prescott when cooper rush won against the vikings that's right i think chicago is a great bet plus six i think i think our ones we chose are great i think so too i think buffalo we don't need and i do like washington but like i they're the worst team against the spread this year i'm out so if we're taking a team on the road though we're taking i mean we take the saints at philly or washington at carolina i mean i think new orleans is is probably a safer bet they're good off the yeah especially after losses we said i I do think Washington covers this game,

but the only one, I think I'm a little worried about Minnesota because they could just lay an egg, but it's the right play. Yeah, that's definitely a game where they're down 21 and we're like, why do we do this? Yeah.

Right? But it's like a daytime Kirk Cousins game. Everyone's going to be out on them. Yeah, I don't know. I think these are the right five. I think Buffalo's out. We reserve the right to come back and change these. Yeah.

My Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. That's true. You guys know. So I submit them. Yeah. Camara isn't playing. I submit them for, um,

for the contest. I do the gold nugget contest. It's seven picks a week. I do two pack 12. I actually picked Ohio State one week because I couldn't find a second Pac-12 game and Ohio State did not cover that game. And then I put the five NFL games

in there. So right now I am tied for I think it's tied for where am I at here? I'm tied for 62nd out of 149. Okay.

I am only nine back of the top. I am 36 and 34. Now, mind you, that's being 19 and 29 in the NFL. Okay, so my other picks this year, my two college picks a week, have gone with it 15 and four. No, 16 and four. 16 and five. Yeah, what is it?

Yeah, 16 and five. That's my, I should just pick college games every week. I would have won the contest. I think so. Man, just Pac-12 though. Yeah, so that means, so basically I'm 16 and four

picking Pac-12 games on this. I picked one Ohio State game one week that that did not cover otherwise it's been all pack 12 games it's pretty good interesting it is good yeah that is good yeah so the leader of the contest is 45 and 25 huh okay we can get there we can get there we'll do it by uh not betting the texans one of the names who's number ninth in this contest is named Pac-12 Refs. So that makes a lot of sense, actually. It actually made more sense if they had no wins.

Right, yeah. Imagine being 23 and 47. I mean, in the NFL, I think we would take that. Well, this one guy, he's ranked 147th with his second team at 25 and 45. His first team is ranked 149th.

That guy's having a rough year. That's tough. Wouldn't you do the opposite? Wouldn't you do the opposite? You would just have two teams and bet the opposite of your picks? Maybe that's what he's doing. Sort of. He's not.

He's only two better. If you bet the opposite, he'd be 47 and 23 he'd be winning so he just sucks twice tough one tough one for the random guy we're just destroying and on our podcast just let me know buddy I'd love to get your ideas on who to fade this week

alright guys it's been a long week for me it's been a long week for Matt we're glad to be able to talk some sports with you guys. I got to get back to some writing. At Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. You can find me at Fox Sports as well. You can find Matt at countryhomeliving.com. Yeah.

Good housekeeping. Yeah, good housekeeping. You can find Matt at Good Housekeeping. That's his other day job. I am also upset Gabe is cheating on us, by the way, on a different podcast. Very upset. I have to bring that up to Gabe.

That's very upsetting. He's cheating on us. Everyone likes this show better, right? Because you actually learn something in this show. The other show just had its first episode. I just saw Gabe's face cheating on another show. So we'll talk about all that Monday and Tuesday. We're Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Please leave a rating uh very much uh appreciate that helps the show could

tweet me at jeff schwartz tweet matt at mm410 uh if you want to just tweet matt just blow up as mentioned just just go do it everyone just let everyone let them know you listen to the podcast you like his picks and we'll be back next week everyone take care