Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 2 Picks and the Best Bets for the NFL’s Opening Weekend

Episode Date: September 9, 2021

Geoff and Matt go over the best and worst matchups in college football this week, including Oregon at Ohio State, Washington at Michigan, and the “Holy War”-- Utah at BYU. Spoiler alert: Geoff likes Oregon to cover.Geoff and Matt talk through the lines for every NFL Week 1 matchup, and share which ones they’re betting on (Seahawks vs. Colts, WFT vs. Chargers) and the ones they’re staying away from (Cardinals vs. Titans, Packers vs. Saints). Tune in if you’re curious what Geoff thinks about Darnold’s revenge game or why this is the only week you can bet the Texans.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday september 9th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz of smart with you matt we have made it officially to the start of the nfl season that means thursday's episodes the one you're listening to now will focus on wagering of all the nfl games and some college football now this year so we're going to go through some college football games i like games matt like there's some big games this weekend, especially for my alma mater, the Oregon Ducks. And we're going to go through every NFL game, all 16 of them, and pick our five favorite wagers. We will enter into a contest this year, and we'll see how good we are.

Last year, Matt, remember, 41-40-4. The last week of the year, we went 4-1 to get above 500. Hopefully this year, guys, we may get some money along the way, because last year 41 40 and 4 get to no money either direction so matt how excited are you to start this season-long process extremely excited jeff i'm so glad we're here this is the best time of the year hope springs eternal it's time we can win some money we're we're in We're not even in the black or the red. We're dead even right now.

And we have one day left before our first bet comes in. So let's enjoy this while we can. I do want to use my platform here, if you will, to talk about something that happened last night. I'm surprising you with this, Jeff. Talk about something that happened last night. I'm surprising you with this, Jeff. So last night I had my fantasy draft with the for the 19th year with my friends from back home in Baltimore. And we do it for some reason on CBS Sports. That's just where we did it in 2002 when we started this thing.

And we've just, you know, we've just kept it there. So last night we sign on and it's a tuesday night at 8 30 like it's not i don't think this is like ideal draft time we get on first three picks are made the site crashed cbssports.com all of the fantasy crashed you went on twitter last night everyone was tweeting cbs sports wtf like our fantasy draft this night what do we do now it took until 11 30 for our draft room to open we did it via a google spreadsheet and all of us on zoom taking each other's picks because no one could keep track of anything cbs get your shit together what the hell man that's incredibly bad for cbs um they're not a sponsor of ours so we can

make fun of them for this um you can't have your your fancy football website crash right when the season's about to start you can't it's it's it's by the way we're not playing fortnight on there we're clicking draft next to one guy's name it's like the easiest thing to run of all time correct i'm curious if anyone else got an outage last night, I want to hear about it. Tweet at us. But unbelievable. Bad job by CBS.

If that goes anything like my betting this football season, we're in trouble because we're off to a dreadful start. It's like everyone's staying home. Can we get our shit together here? What are we doing? Yeah, that's not good, especially again, since fantasy football is so big. I have a fantasy football team this year um and i just i'm just not excited about like i just i just did it because a bunch of people are doing it they're they're so

there's so much more into i did a little i did a little auto draft a little real draft in real time like i'm just i'm too i have so much going on with gambling it's hard to do fantasy at the same time yeah i had to i had to beg out of a few invites into more pools it's like i i just can't i'm overextended like i got to keep my focus you know crystal clear on what i'm doing and and uh not sounding like an idiot on this podcast is a top focus top focus of yours well let's get to some games and we'll start with some college games matt what do you want to start with let's get to college football jeff we've got one week in the books. You and Gabe talked at length about it in our previous shows this week.

So let's just look ahead. There's a big game with your alma mater, Jeff. Ohio State at Oregon. Oregon, huge underdogs, but you're wearing an Oregon t-shirt right now. Yes. So why don't you give us your take here? And I'll immediately start to prepare points about why ohio state's gonna come yeah so i'm gonna take oregon here but not because uh no

i actually don't wage on oregon very often just because i just as a fan right because it's hard to like wager i think on your favorite team uh that would that would that would just not be good right i think overall it's not good but But nonetheless, look, here's a couple reasons why. And remember, we're taping this Wednesday afternoon. So the numbers we give you now is what we have to give you, right? If the number changes, that's up to you to choose whether or not you see the value in that line moving, right, in a certain direction. So we're just giving you as it is right now. Right now, Oregon is getting 14.5 points at Ohio State.

It could vary from, again, from book to book, but that's about where it's at right now, Oregon is getting 14.5 points at Ohio State. It could vary from, again, from book to book, but that's about where it's at right now. Some it's a 15, some it's a 14, some it's a 14.5. So before the Fresno State game, which Oregon struggled in last week, this line would have been 10, Matt. So you get a four extra points for Oregon struggling against Fresno State when some of the struggles can be traced to doing nothing on offense. Now, let's go to doing nothing on offense.

Now, let's go to Ohio State very quickly. It's a concern. Well, I'll explain to Ohio State very quickly. I wrote a thousand words on this game for Fox Sports, by the way. So, like, I am ready for this game. Ohio State looked like they should against Minnesota. Started a little slow. Brand new quarterback at TJ Stroud. But they had six scores over 30 yards.

Explosive play offense. Defensively, injured in the secondary, and run defense still not very good. So they look like they should, right? CJ Stratton, again, little struggles early on, played a little better as the game went on. They won by two scores. They're going to score a bunch of points against Oregon. It's a matter of if Oregon can hold them to 35 points

while scoring 28, 27 points and cover the game, right? That's what this comes down to. Oregon defensively, Kayvon Thibodeau, best pass rusher in the country. He's nicked up in the Fresno game. He had a pressure, a strip sack. Hopefully he's healthy. I just saw Mario Cristobal, the head coach,

said that he's day-to-day. They bring back two secondary pieces who were suspended. They're back this week. They're going to sit in zone is what they do with their new D.C. and kind of keep everything in front of them. So the explosive plays aren't going to be there in my opinion that we saw against minnesota matt who's safety uh i don't know if he could run a five flat like this was it wasn't a good matchup um now organ offensively is the concern right because you have to score 28 to 35 points to cover this game if you're not going to win obviously and

anthony brown's their quarterback anthony brown is is a Boston College transfer it's his fourth year starting he is what he is he is mostly average all right he went in rhythm in stride he can make the throws but far too often he misses he's either late he makes the wrong read and doesn't go to the right guy the run game this past week a little early on struggle a little early, but then second half was fine. But it's very clear to me that they left a lot of the offense out of the playbook against Fresno. They're a big RPO team,

which is a run pass option. They leaked a tight end to flat a bunch. There's a lot of things they didn't do. Play action passes very much. There's a lot of offense left that they've left for Ohio State. Lastly, lastly, Oregon has played down to opponents.

No doubt about it, right? Mario Cristobal has only covered five home games, Matt, in his career at Oregon. But he's won 17 of 18 home games. Like, he wins his home games, but doesn't cover. But when it's a big game, he's beaten Washington twice, our rival. And they've been good with Chris Peterson. We'll get to them in a second, by the way, for this year.

USC, 2-0 against USC. Beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Beat Utah in a Pac-12 championship game when Utah was the fifth team in the country. They molly-whopped them, right? So his team is the Auburn game. Should have won the Auburn game, right? We are ready to play in big games.

We'll be ready. But I think 14.5 is too many points. It's just too many points. If it was 13.5, maybe Ohio State. I get that extra hook there as well. I would take the four. I think this line comes back down by kickoff. This is a good lesson if you're sort of new

or brushing up on your betting about the key numbers, right? Like 14, maybe you feel one way about it. The 14 and a half gives you a real advantage if you do like Oregon. I mean, I think the Thibodeau thing obviously is huge. One interesting little nugget here jeff uh the when oregon goes on the road the under hits has hit 14 of the last 20 games uh 10 of the last 12 is an underdog so that would support you if they keep ohio state from scoring

constantly and this thing goes under the 63 and a half, I think is the latest line that I see. Then in theory, then this game should be fairly close. I mean, I think the 14 and a half, if you can get it, is probably the play. And maybe that under, is that tasty to you? Yeah, I could see. I don't have a take on the total. I think most people are going over on the total, but I could see this being a defense. Oregon covers in a low scoring game, right? Like that. So if you're rooting for the cover, you I could see this being a defense. Oregon covers in a low-scoring game, right? So if you're rooting for the cover,

you also probably take the under. Yeah. And I think if you think Oregon wins, the under is probably the play, right? It's probably an under game for Oregon to win. I'm not sure they're going to put up 48 points to beat Ohio State in the shoe. Yeah, that doesn't seem totally likely

from a team that had three plays over 20 yards last week. That's a little bit concerning. A couple other numbers here, by the way. Ryan Day is only 3-3 versus spread outside the Big Ten since 2019. He didn't cover three home games last year. Now, again, there's fans in the crowd, so it'll be a little different now. So he's 6-5 in the shoe, it looks like, in home games. So against the spread.

But again, last year, kind of have to throw out. But 3-3 outside the spread since the big – since 2019 outside conference. So something to consider. Oregon 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as a road dog. A little concerning, especially with no crowds in those last games. A lot of that was skewed. When are we even road dog? I mean, Oregon's like,

I can't imagine when last time Oregon's been a lot of, I mean, that's over years, right? Yeah, it's gotta be. Yeah. I mean, we haven't been road dog since like Willie Taggart years, which is a long time ago. So I'm going Oregon here.

Obviously you can come argue with me on this. All right, I want to move this along because we got a lot of NFL to get to. Lots to get to. Yeah, Michigan hosting uh in prime time that's uh wow tough tough start of the season for uh dylan morris who you compared to gabe goodwin yeah my fellow co-host that might be too harsh on gabe there so i'm taking the under i'm taking the under this game. This under open, by the way, at 50. I got it 51.

It's now at 48 and a half. It's like an NFL total. I would take it. Yeah. But here's the deal, dude. 99% of the money is on the over. And yeah, 9% of the money is on the over. That's wild to me.

And let me explain why. So Washington scored seven points against Montana. We talked about them on Tuesday's show or monday's show and i think people have the inclination to say hey week one they played poorly they're gonna be better this week but the issues they had weren't like montana issues they were just bad football issues dylan morris not finding open wide receivers not finding them on target offensive line just missing easy easy things montana was doing michigan's defense can play football aiden hudgenson is a is a top tier pass rusher i'm not sure they can score on the flip side washington's defense guys is really good the opening drive they allowed a field goal over the next nine drives to montana they allowed 33 yards they're always good on defense michigan on the other hand offensively

ronnie bell's out their best wide receiver when he got hurt in the western michigan they just packed everything in run the football so we have two teams that want to run the football two teams that will definitely kick field goals over going for it for and for it down in the red zone so that's a couple extra points here and there um to play defense and all the money's on the over give me the under unders 10 and 3 uh in washington's last 13 as an underdog. They suck on offense. Their offense sucks. Yep. Yeah, I guess you're going to avoid taking a side in this.

I'm curious if you have any faith in Washington. I would take Michigan, yeah. Yeah. Tough start for Washington to go from rank to having their quarterback compared to an almost 40-year-old dad. Not great. Okay, i'm with you there great rivalry game is our third game here uh iowa iowa state as of our recording now we've got iowa state as four and a half point road favorites the total another another low total at 46 what do you think yeah i'm gonna pound the under again in this game. The under has gone 12 to 15 times in this matchup.

The last two games, by the way, were 13-3 and 18-17. You have two really good defenses here, right? Iowa's defense had two pick sixes in the game against Indiana. If you take those out, their offense scored 20 points against Indiana. And one of those was a 56-yard touchdown run. So I don't see them scoring against Iowa State. Iowa State has a stout defense. And vice versa, Iowa State puts up 16 points against some northern Iowa,

something like that. And they always struggle in week one. But conversely, I think Iowa has a really good defense. We have two really elite defenses. Iowa's quarterback is not that great. And Iowa State, Brock Purdy can play a little bit, but I'm going with under here again. I know it's not fun to bet unders,

but that's where I feel more comfortable here. Isn't there some kind of weather? Was I reading this somewhere that there's some kind of big weather thing happening in the Midwest this weekend? I feel like that was something that I saw because the under seemed to be like what a lot of sharps

are doing in these Midwest games, but a lot, there's a lot of wind this weekend, I think. Yeah. I was reading about some like very obscure games and everyone was like, take the under because of the weather, but who cares?

Yeah. This is always a fun game. It's nice that it's scheduled so early this year. All right. So we're talking about, we're taking a lot of unders to start here. What do you think about, we have another game out West to wrap us up here. Utah, the Alex Smith versus Zach Wilson Bowl, Utah at BYU.

We've got Utah road favorites by seven right now. Another low total at 48. What's your read here? Yeah, so this is the Holy War and Utah has won nine straight games. Now, they're favored by seven at BYU. The play here to me is Utah. I know we're staying out west a bunch here. There aren't really some – the games out east aren't great. I might give you a couple picks in a second of where I'm leaning some games

if you want to – for people that live out east and want to get in some action. So I'll give you a couple of those in a second of where I'm leaning on Texas and where I'm leaning on Mississippi State game as well and some other games I have some thoughts on. But Utah last weekend played Weber State. It was an up-and-down game, but they have a quarterback, Charlie Brewer, from Baylor who can play. About to drop passes, plug them.

Their offensive line is beat up a little bit, but they get most of their guys back. Defensively, we know they're good. But BYU went to Vegas to play Arizona. And Matt, Arizona is a dumpster fire. They're going to win two games this year. And they won 24-16 with a defensive score. They just didn't play great on offense.

They allowed 345 yards to Arizona. They have a dual quarterback system right now in Arizona. I think Utah's primed here. Some good numbers here as well. Utah's 5-0 against the spread. The last five meetings at BYU. And they're 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a win. They'll get better from week one to week two because they're a very well-coached team. I like it. Spoiler alert, I'm not a big fan of taking road favorites in the NFL here, but you've sold me there. Give us a few more to close us out before we move on to the pros.

I think Texas goes in Arkansas. Again, it's a road favorite, so it's not something ideal, but I think they cover the seven here. Arkansas, just offensively, I thought Texas looked good, man. They're not back. They're not back, but they looked much better than I expected. And I know it's going to be on the road and Sark's first time on the road and whatever that Hudson card.

I think it's his name. I know his name is Hudson, I think. I'm sure Hank will yell in our stream yard about me mispronouncing his name. Yeah, B. John Robinson, the running back, played well. I think that they're primed for a good opportunity here to get their second win. You know, I don't like a lot of like home dogs this week. I mean, we don't have a lot of them, which we'd like to kind of pry on, right?

I mean, Cal getting 11 and a half at TCU, that seems a little bit off. I'm trying to find little places take home favorites, but I can't find, I mean, home dogs, man, I can't find it. Not a lot of home dogs this week that I like. Yeah, it's after that first week, it feels like things start to reset a little bit in a lot of these matchups.

Hey, how about Tua's brother and my Maryland Terrapins last week? Did you catch any of that? I will be honest, I watched the whole game. No, who'd they play? I have no idea. They beat West Virginia and Tua's brother, I will be honest. I watched the whole game. No, who'd they play? I have no idea. They beat West Virginia and Tua's brother.

I don't even know how to say his first name, but Tulea, I think. Looked awesome. Very intriguing one back east to keep your eye on. But speaking of Tua, let's just get to the NFL, Jeff. Let's do it, guys. I am so excited for this. And let's just get to the NFL, Jeff. Let's do it, guys.

I am so excited for this. I can't believe we're talking about the second week of college football in the first week of the NFL. Jeff, we have a game Thursday night. Oh, by the way, we're going to pick five of these games, right? We're going to go through each. We're going to talk about some totals along the way if we like any, but but we're gonna go through all of them and land on five we have to agree on them it's sort of a uh we don't have to we can we can get close jeff can pull rank it's his show

but uh it's sort of a three-legged race concept here um so let's get started cowboys at bucks we're getting eight and a half at the time we're recording this for tampa the total is 52 um man that number really has has shifted in the last few days yeah it's gone up it's ballooned up i mean this is a game that's not playable for me right i mean we don't play much many thursday night games you know the champion i think has covered the last couple of games in week one um but i don't know we're getting from dallas right with dac prescott not playing the preseason zach martin out and i just i don't know what we're getting from them i really don't so everyone's gonna you know play money on the bucks but i'm i'm not doing it uh i i'm you know thursday night football we don't play very much i think for good reason uh i i don't have a play here yeah we're not getting a good number if you listen to this

show a few months ago and trailed jeff and i i think I know I did. I bet this is six and a half for Tampa a few months ago, knowing that this would happen. Feel good about that. Here's the funny thing, Jeff. Tom Brady, 14 and four straight up in week one in his career. Okay. Three of those losses in week one, his team went to the Superbowl that year. No way. This guy's unreal, man. Eight and a half is way too much. The best number is gone. I don't know. I don't even really have a read on this,

but I do like Tampa to win. I don't either. That's why I think that's why we're, we're just not doing this game. Yeah. Interesting. Everybody wants to taste. So everyone's pounding Tampa.

There's going to be some public that are disappointed about that. All right. So no pick there. Let's move to a a game we've talked a lot about on this show already that's seattle at the colts uh to the seahawks are two and a half point road favorites the totals at 50 who knows what colts are showing up this weekend we still don't know that as of as of recording time wednesday afternoon what do you think so i like seattle when they were getting three points um you know three months ago in this game. I think I actually bet them at plus three, but going through zero, going through zero is not that big of a number, right?

Like it's not, you shouldn't really move off that opinion, right? So I'm good with Seattle here at minus two and a half to get under a field goal still. But for a couple of reasons, one is the Colts under Frank Reich have struggled a lot in week one. So they lost to the Bengals in 2018, 34-23. In 2019, they lost to the Chargers in overtime by six. And last year, they were Jacksonville's only winner of the season. They lost 27-20 to Jacksonville. We have a Colts team with Carson Wentz who did not play all of preseason.

He's coming off an injury. We have a team trying to, you know, who did not play. We did not play all of preseason. It's coming off an injury. We have a team trying to, you know, the offensive linemen in and out because of COVID. And I think Seattle, who's been pretty bad as a road favorite, I will admit that, right? I mean, they have not been good as a road favorite. I will go Seattle here minus two and a half. I'm with you. Also bet them plus three a few few months ago I'll stop high-fiving myself soon promise uh Andy was only three and five against the spread at home

last year and Seattle uh under Russell Wilson has won 77 percent of their games in the east coast time zone uh that's just kind of interesting uh I don't know Fisher coming back from the Achilles and COVID Nelson I'm not sure is he but is he starting this week I it's I don't know fisher coming back from the achilles and kovid nelson i'm not sure is he but is he starting this week i it's i don't know that yet um but the fact that there's that much up front including the quarterback that's still unknown this close to a game against seattle yeah uh i can't tell if this is a trap and it's too like they vegas knows something about the colts or that this is like an easy chance to take Seattle and cash the ticket. I mean, I think people are higher on higher on Wentz than mean you are.

Well, everyone on Earth is higher on Wentz than you are. I don't I don't I don't see it, man. I just don't see it. Well, he hasn't practiced enough-stock i don't see it man i just don't see it well he hasn't practiced enough because of the the you know the foot and all that stuff so i i'm still on seattle here i think this will be a fun game um but i i could see this one being a pretty easy no sweat win for seattle i hope so all right so we'll put that in the mix um man they're such good games this week the next next one is Pittsburgh at Buffalo. Buffalo's laying six and a half.

The total's 48 and a half. Interesting one. This is a, I want no part of this game. This is not, look, I think Buffalo's gonna be really good again this season. I just, are we certain Josh Allen will have the same season he had last year? I mean, that's a pretty dang good season, man.

But even then, I just – it's too many points. Look, I don't think Pittsburgh's a playoff team, but I think they're a quality team still. They have a new offensive line they're debuting, but Buffalo's debuting some new pass rushers as well, right? Pittsburgh has a new defense, some new offensive coordinator as well right uh pittsburgh has a new defense so i mean new offensive coordinator uh as well i think it's just too many points in a in a in a game where we have two quality teams yeah i think i think if you can wait till this goes to seven pull the trigger on pittsburgh it might go to it might go to seven and a half if you get lucky i just think that this is priced

at buffalo's ceiling and pittsburgh's floor basically like pittsburgh i think people just are counting out pittsburgh because they were so bad at the end of the season last year but they these two teams played last year and it was right when pittsburgh's tailspin started yeah buffalo ended up winning by 11 um but pittsburgh it was just a nightmare game they had 47 rushing yards uh ben roethlisberger threw a pick six and it still was close until the very end um i just feel like buffalo is the public team right now and oh they're for sure the public team i mean they're yeah i would imagine i imagine they're getting a ton of money on buffalo i'm gonna check right now just to make sure yeah yeah there's a lot of the money. Oh, actually there's some reverse.

A lot of the bets. Yeah. A lot of the bets are on Buffalo. Yeah. Yeah. But only 38% of the money, the sharps are coming in on Pittsburgh. I personally,

I, I like Pittsburgh enough at six and a half to, to put them in consideration, but it's, you know, it, the, the bills cover games.

Like they're a great team. It's not, that's not a fun one to bet on. So maybe wait till seven there. Another game that, well, this one I have, let me see, let me go follow our actual order. A game I have no read on, Jeff, is this Arizona at Tennessee game.

Tennessee's favored by three, high total at 52 and a half. I seriously have no clue what this line is or why it's priced this way. I have no clue what to do with this. Remember we said last year we're not going to bet Arizona anymore? You know, we can't bet teams with bad coaches. We just can't do it.

And their coach is not good. And until proven otherwise, I don't think he's any good. And I saw their offense in the preseason just look like blah again. Again, the Titans defense has a lot to do to be better, and they have to play some young guys in their back end, Elijah Molden, Addison Passers. We've got to see them play pretty well to have an idea there. They lost their OC in Arthur Smith, which will be a big concern

as far as what their offense will be this year with Ryan Tannehill, but I don't have a read on Tennessee, and I think Arizona's a bum team. I just can't do anything in this game. Yeah, I don't know what to make of this one either. There's part of me that's like, wait, is this like the most obvious Tennessee pick of all time? But then there's this other part of me that's like,

can you actually trust that? Kingsbury 1-0-1 in week one. A couple things here. That's interesting, huh? The Cards are 10-6 for us to spread in the first half of the last two seasons. Kingsbury started off as a really good against the spread as a dog.

13-4-1, but he's 0-4 since then. Also been under 13 of 20 games his last 20 games. So, yeah. Over is 7- one at home in the regular season uh last year for the titans so this is a good time to bring up my general theory um on the totals so remember that last year the totals when we came out of the gate the totals were obscene like every week the first like three or four weeks of the season every over hit do you remember that it was like it was constant and it makes sense when there's no road fans like the quarterbacks

can do whatever they want they can take their time they can communicate they can change the play they can do all that stuff i think we're gonna see a big adjustment at the beginning of the season where like these crowds like we'll get to some of these later, but Tennessee, like they obviously had a bunch of fans last year, but there are going to be some crowds that are rabid and it is going to be intense for these, especially younger quarterbacks. Maybe Kyler Murray's one of them who comes out and is like, holy hell,

what is going on? Arizona last year was 11 and five to the under. I think that this is, this is one of the higher totals this week. I think the under is a good play here, even though both these teams have bad defenses. I'm seeing it at 52-1⁄2 at the moment. I'm with you there.

So we're not going to play this game in our contest. All right, let's move it along. Don't you dare try to talk me into this, Jeff. This is the 49ers laying 7-1⁄2 at Detroit. Do not make a This is the 49ers laying seven and a half at Detroit. Do not make a case for the 49ers. Do not. How many points a line score in this game? Dude, just don't do it.

You don't win money betting a road favorite by seven and a half in week one. It's not how you win money. Well, week one, I would argue, is the time to do it, right? Because the Niners are fresh. They're healthy. I'm surprised it's only seven and a half. What are you talking about?

The final score of this game is 31-13, and you know that. Okay, here's the thing, Jeff. Last year, there were two road favorites of over three points in week one. There were no fans, so it's an advantage for those road favorites to go in and win on the road. Guess what happened to advantage for those road favorites to go in and win on the road guess what happened

to both of those road favorites that had that were giving more they were laying more than three last year jeff what they both lost straight up that's what happens the colts lost the jags and philly lost to washington okay there were some three point spreads that went either way but seven and a half this is why the casinos are big this is what happens people like us bet on a huge road favorite in the first week of the season when everybody's healthy like no one there's no health problems anywhere this is a huge statement game for detroit like if if they get crushed in this game their season's kind of done right like they're not gonna put up a huge fight with jared

goff if they just if they just shit the bed in week one they're not a good team the 49ers like are they gonna come out there and try to run up the score here no they're gonna grind it out if they're up by 14 they're just gonna hand it off a million times they're not gonna go out there and you know go deep to george kittle with jimmy garoppolo back there this is this is gonna be closer than people think. Unless they go hard in the second half because Trey Lance is playing. But why would they do that? I'm just saying when this game

is 31-13, you'd be like, dang, we should put this in the contest. But is that your case? That Trey Lance might come in and therefore it goes against every betting principle you can ever think of to take this? I mean, it's a terrible bet. It's a terrible bet! But i really feel like they're gonna they're gonna win this game by a lot of points but it's not a smart bet because there's better bets on the board i'm i'm i've done my job

if i've talked us out of doing that one because there is just no way i'm i'm comfortable you knew you knew i was leaning in that direction i did because it's it's like the squarest pick of all time we can't do it if anything well i'm not i'm not a square i'm not a square better though but You knew I was leaning in that direction. I did because it's like the squarest pick of all time. We can't do it. If anything. Well, I'm not a square better though, but yes. But it's one that everyone looks at and is like, the Lions suck.

Like we got to do it. Okay. Well, let's do the next one because we both agree on this one. Yeah. All right. Let's kumbaya about the Washington football team getting a point against the Chargers at home. Yeah.

The play here is Washingtonhington yeah look fly and this is a good a good testament to what you said about crowds being back right justin herbert last year had a great season um but he didn't play in front of many crowds now he goes to washington to play possibly the best front seven in football and um they have a brand new left tackle and i like rashaun slater but it's a tough start for him against Chase. And yes, he played well against him in college, but this is not college anymore, right? And look, it's also worth noting, Washington played their starters in the preseason.

Like, they had some action. The Chargers did not. So Washington's going to kind of get the feel of the game early on. Like, they've been playing. Chargers did nothing. You have a brand-new head coach who's on the road to face ron rivera i think washington wins this game i'll take the point here one of my favorite of the weekend me too you mentioned herbert against the defenses last year the only like very good defense he played last year in the schedule was

the bucks but that was with 10 000 fans it was the first week that the Bucks had any fans at Ray J. So I think he is going to be flabbergasted by what he sees. Remember, the Washington top corner, they signed one of the top corners in free agency in William Jackson. They drafted a new middle linebacker. Everyone knows about their front four. They're going to be relentless. The home crowd last year didn't get a lot to cheer about, number one. And number two, they weren't there. This crowd's going to be hot. I think this is a great chance to fade one of the most public. Let's do it.

I'm in. Oh, my God. The Eagles at the Falcons. The Falcons are three-point favorites. Are you going to make the case for your Falcons every year? Every single year, you're a Falcons fan at the beginning of the season, and then they kill you. Let's hear it this year. I mean, what confidence do you have in the Eagles playing well in this game?

Well, I'm curious what confidence you have in Atlanta playing in this game. Because Arthur Smith can coach. Like, he can coach offense. Like, we know he can coach offense. Now, obviously, Atlanta's defense, there's some room for improvement. But I just like Arthur Smith a lot as a coach. I think it's foolish to play him in this first opening weekend before we see what he actually is.

But the Falcons will score points this year. They're going to play well. Now, defensively, again, they need a big improvement. I think in two or three weeks, we'll start playing the Falcons more as people don't respect them. But I think there's other games here we like. I think we do. We only have two on the board right now but I would be okay taking the Falcons here minus three I think the Arthur Smith thing has been really interesting to watch because he was one of those coaches that like two years ago no one had heard of as the offensive coordinator

you know and everyone would do their list of yeah Peter Schrager would do his list of like here are the coordinators that are going to be coaches everyone was like who the hell is Arthur Smith and now everyone's like well he's going to be coaches. Everyone was like, who the hell is Arthur Smith? And now everyone's like, well, he's going to be a thousand times better than Dan Quinn. Like we don't know that. And we certainly don't know that in week one. The only thing I will say here to your point about the Eagles is this might be the only chance to bet against the Eagles

where they're priced somewhat fairly. Like this is Nick Sirianni's first game as a head coach. It's Jalen Hurts on the road. Again, we talked about the fans at length already. The Falcons don't have to do a whole hell of a lot to score against this defense. I, after all that, would be open to playing the Falcons here just because I think the Eagles are that trash.

This is more of an anti-Eagles wager than is like a pro-F Falcons wager, right? I don't believe in Nick Sirianni. They just traded for a quarterback. How confident can you be in Jalen Hurts? And they just traded for a guy. And the money is pretty even, so there's no real lean there, right? But I think Atlanta will be worth a play here. We can maybe save in our back pocket if there's other games lean there. Right. But I think Atlanta will be worth the play here.

We can maybe save in our back pocket. If there's other games. Fair enough. I want to note that in the, in the rundown here, shout out to Hank, our producer who says Tony Romo said that he thinks the Eagles could go 10 and six 11 and five,

which by the way, they can't go this year. He also said Zach Wilson might be a top five quarterback this year. Like, what's happening with Tony Romo? Like, come back to Earth, buddy. He's, I have no idea what's happening. Here's one where we're going to really have it out. It's the Jaguars at the Texans.

The Jaguars are road favorites, laying three at Houston. Do you want me to start? I mean, you have to bet the Texans. Yes. So this is... You don't have a choice. I'm sorry, people listening, but this is like the sharpest play you're going to have all week.

You have to bet the Texans. So when everyone's like, I don't want to bet the Texans. It's like, that's why this is the price. So Jacksonville, why are they favored? They have a rookie quarterback. Number one overall picks are 1-6-1 against the spread since 2000 in week one. And their first starts, they're 3-11-1 against the spread.

Andrew Luck, who is like the best case scenario of all these quarterbacks. He started 11-5 his rookie season. He lost two of his first three games, including a 20-point loss in week one to a team coach by Lovie Smith. I get that Houston sucks. I get that you have a bet in that they week one to a team coach by Lovey Smith. I get that Houston sucks. I get that you have a bet in that they might not win a game this whole season. I get it.

But they're starting Tyrod Taylor. He's 26, 19 and three against the spread. This is a veteran team who knows like Mark Ingram and Brandon Cooks. They suck, but they know how to play. Like, we don't know if Trevor Lawrence knows how to play. We don't know if the like goofy LaVisca Chenault offense is going to be a thing or if Urban Meyer can coach. I just think that this is a really good chance to bet the Texans because they're – and then next week fade them no matter what.

There's also 59% of the wagers and nine and 80 of the money on jacksonville yeah that's that's this is exact this is like betting principles 101 if if i'm wrong fine but this is the time you bet you bet the texans here and you don't watch the game you just wait till the money hits your account yeah i mean you're you're right i mean this this is and you know we joked about this over text messages the other day um but you're right i I mean, this is – and, you know, we joked about this over text messages the other day. But you're right. I mean, this is everything that we have here as far as the principles that we have are this, is home divisional dog, right?

Yep. And a rookie quarterback, a brand-new head coach, a brand-new offense. And really, Jacksonville's not a very talented team. I mean, defensively, they're not offensively james robinson chanel i think but i'm good but i'm i'm fine with it i'm fine with it let's put it in man like this is one that i'm willing to go to go down on you you you hold your nose and and and bet this yep this is yeah i feel like jeff we're like we're starting the season it's like we're starting a diet and we're like it's january 2nd and we're like all right like you know we got to eat a salad

on day one that's what we're doing right here we have to eat our vegetables in order to bet like a nine point road favorite in uh week three which we definitely will speaking of road favorites vikings laying three and a half at the bangles. This is, I think, one of the most confusing games of the week. Yeah, I have no lean on this game. I think we normally would take the Bengals here on the points because I don't trust the Vikings this year. But I don't know. The Vikings, Bengals offensive line,

don't know what I'm getting with. Jamar Chase hasn't looked good. Defensively, some young parts on defense you have to see playing a real game. I got nothing here, Matt. What do you have? see playing a real game i'm i got nothing here matt what do you have i have nothing here either i think that i can't tell if we're buying low on the bangles or buying low on the vikings uh i this was just a pass for me i i i'm sorry to listeners that i don't have

anything smarter to say i just don't know what to do worth pointing out viking 6 and 11 against the spread the last 17 games. So haven't been great at covering, but I can't back the Bengals here. That hook is pretty juicy, though. There's other wagers I think we like coming up in just a second. Let's talk about it. Is one of them the Kansas City Chiefs laying six to the Cleveland Browns in the game of the week?

It's such a public play. I can't do it, but I actually think it's the right wager. Mahomes and Andy Reid have played three openers, averaged 37 points in those openers. They are going to put up points in this game, right? They come up with new schemes, new ways to do things. They look good in the preseason. They play in the preseason.

You know, if the Chiefs score, let's say they score their average, 37 points. Are the Browns scoring 30? I don't know. The thing, I have really gone back and forth on this, and I knew it was probably going to be in the mix. So last year, Kansas City was 4-6 at home against the spread last year because people thought like this because they're like, oh, it's the Chiefs. And they remember they had a bunch of weirdly close games all season like they were frustrating to

bet on because they were so talented it just never felt like they put their foot on the gas like they were up they're up nine against the panthers and then just kind of let them score under two minutes yeah that happened it was stuff like that yeah and they clearly were the better team obviously and i i've thought about this a bit so last year um people who were betting the browns are probably remembering the the afc championship or was divisional whatever it was divisional round yeah it was the yeah the the first round of for the chiefs at home the chiefs were up 19 to 3 and dominating and then mahomes went out with that concussion and chad henney came in and then it was close um I do think that I think these are the two best teams in the league right now.

Honestly, like I think that Cleveland's roster, we've talked about this on every podcast we've done this offseason, Jeff, their roster, aside from Baker Mayfield, is the most complete in the whole league. I think the additions to the secondary are huge so they could keep this thing close. But I actually like I mean, yes, it's the public play, but the number actually is dropping. Like it's moving to six, even with just like a little bit of the money

coming in on the Browns. It's only a 5% difference between the bets and the money. So I don't know. I'm very conflicted. You could talk me into either side. Well, I'm not thinking the Browns plus six. I promise you that. You know, the bet here would be Kansas City minus six.

But again, I'm not really, I don't know. It's such a public play. Sometimes that's not. I just think the Chiefs are on a mission this year to prove that Super Bowl isn't who they are. And the reason you would doubt them is the offensive line this year, right? Five new guys playing against the Browns defensive line.

And that's certainly a concern. But I think they look good this preseason. They actually played their starters. I keep telling you this. I think it's important. Defensively, Honey Badger may or may not play. That's an important note. The Browns have three new pieces.

They're starting the secondary, possibly, right? They have the two guys signing for agency, plus Greg Newsom. They drafted. They have new parts against the Chiefs in week one. Remember, the Chiefs would have scored on six straight drives in the playoff game

had it not been for a missed field goal. The Browns did not stop them at all in that game. The Chiefs did not play well in the red zone, but the red zone issue should be fixed

with a better offensive line. That's not to get into the weeds too much, but that's a big reason why teams are good in the red zone, their offensive line. So I think they can't see minus six to play here, but I don't know if I like it more than some other plays we have here. Yeah, I'll put it in the mix.

I'd like to consider it. You've talked me into it. I think Cleveland might end up being, they could end up being the number one seed in the conference still and lose this game. Like it's very possible. You mentioned all the new pieces. Let's make it a maybe, yeah?

Yes. Moving on to another good 4 o'clock game, one I'll be very interested in. Denver at the Giants. Denver's laying three. What an interesting line, man. I don't know. What do you think here? I bet Denver minus one or minus one and a half.

I'm on the Broncos here. I'll explain why. It's very simple, man. The Broncos have an elite pass rush and elite defense, right, with Fangio. Patrick Chetan looks like the real deal. The Giants are not going to score in this game very much. Their offensive line is a wreck right now. Daniel Jones did not look good in the limited action we saw in the preseason.

I'm not even sure the reports from practice were all that good. I do have concerns about the Broncos scoring. I think the under is definitely a play in this game. But I think the Broncos with Teddy Bridgewater will be very methodical, right? Run the football. The Broncos have weapons, right? Jerry Judy,

Sutton, no offense going to play. I like the Broncos minus three. I wouldn't go over three. I wouldn't go over three at all. I think it's a three and a half sell on heartbeat. But I like Denver minus three. I mean, going from one and a half to three, in my opinion,

where I got the original way Gerrard, was not enough to move me off that opinion. Get to three and a half, we'll have a different chat. But another thing here, Giants, four, nine, and one against a spread at MetLife the last 12 games they do not play well at home uh Fangio's good as a dog now last year he wasn't favored all in uh in 2020 but they were uh he was nine of nine and five in his last 14 last year um but I'm just I'm this is like an anti-Giants offensive line wager here or I think the Broncos suffocate the

Giants offense I we texted about this one too and I've come around to your side here um I actually don't think this will move to three and a half because it's hanging at three and a bunch of sharp money came in and now they're it's about evenly split on the money despite 62 percent of the bets on Denver so I think this is probably going to hold at three. And I'm willing to go against the Sharps here for the reasons you said. And one other thing, the Giants' best case scenario that they come together this season

and they're actually good, it's not happening in week one. It's just not. Like Barkley, we're still hearing all these things, like maybe he's good enough, like we don't know, like his health. Kenny Galladay said that he expects them to come out a little bit slowly because he says guys have been in and out of the lineup. We might be a little slow to get off.

That's not a great thing to say. I also read a report from a beat writer that Galladay can't catch a ball in practice against the secondary of his own own team which is very concerning for the top paid receiver in free agency this year i also i i think that this is the chance to fade the giants like i think they're actually getting respected a little bit here despite being home dogs you mentioned them at home daniel jones one and seven against the spread in the AFC. Let's do it, man. Let's fade your former Giants. Let's do it. I'm all in. So we got four right now.

We have Seattle, Washington, Houston, and Denver. We're looking for one more, and we got some more we can talk about at the end. But let's continue going here. Let's do it. So great game here. Played in Jacksonville, unfortunately. Shout-outs to our listeners in New Orleans.

Hope everyone's all right. Green Bay at quote-unquote Saints. It's now at 3.5 for the Packers as neutral site favorites. Totals at 50. The Jameis Winston era begins. Yeah, I don't have a feel for this one, man. Do you have a feel for this game? I mean, they allegedly chose Florida for the hot weather because of Aaron Rodgers.

Who knows if that's actually true? But it's moved outside now. You have kind of the hurricane in how our players' mindsets in this game. There was a long, protracted thing with Rodgers in the offseason. All the money's on Green Bay. I don't have a great idea for this game. Do you? No, I don't. The public's on Green Bay. We should't have a great idea for this game. Do you? No, I don't.

The public's on Green Bay. We should specify that the money's about split. Good luck, Sharps. Back Jameis Winston. It's not for me. I would say if they were at home getting three and a half with the fans being back in the crowd, I might lean in with the Saints. But you're not playing at home.

You're playing in Jacksonville. So I can't do it. i'm off this one yeah i green bay last year covered and won all their september games they they usually come out strong but this is a tough opponent and i think that you know sean payton is uh he's a tough one to go against uh so yeah that's a pass because we're not taking the saints uh no chance correct uh our next game the dolphins at the patriots uh they feel like they play week one every year uh the patriots are laying the three low total i feel like this is going to be a slug fest uh what's your read so i love the under in this game 43 and a.5. I'm surprised it's even that high. You know, look, New England starts Mac Jones against Brian Flores' defense.

New England, in general, I think this year is going to want to run the football. It's going to want to play great defense, play action pass. They're not trying to be an explosive offense, right? On the flip side, Tua and the Dolphins offense kind of looked mad in the preseason the rough tackle was out who wasn't any good so the backup is now in the Patriots front seven they revamped it looked pretty good in the preseason again they played a lot in the preseason Matt um I think the lean here would be New England minus three but not I can't do that with Mac Jones first game but I love the under in this game if I were to take one side this week I mean one total this week it would be this I love that great tip I don't again rookie

quarterback week one tough defense I agree it's this feels like a little bit of a stay away to me I also am not sure how good Tua is we'll learn a lot about him pretty quickly Miami was much better at home against the spread last year one of of the best teams against the spread, period. But they were 7-1 at home and 4-4 against the spread on the road. I like the Patriots, I think, with the three, but not enough to go in on it. Yeah, I'm in agreement there. So, look, the under is, I think, certainly the play here. Yeah, I like that. Everyone's all over the over in this because it's one of the lower totals of the week.

But I like it jeff yeah um okay so now we're in prime time sunday night the uh the andy dalton led bears we'll see for how long they're playing the rams the rams are laying seven and a half and are a popular survivor pick this week any trepidation for you with the rams hosting the bears yeah i think it's too many points for an offense that we haven't seen function all in the preseason. I think the Rams can be really good. I like you convinced me to take their over this year. I think that's actually a really good wager.

But Matt, I don't know what we're getting from their offense. I haven't seen it yet. There's going to be some regression on defense. And Dolan's not bad. The Bears' offensive line is bad, but I don't know. This just feels like we have much better wagers than laying seven and a half at home with the Rams.

Maybe I'm crazy. No, you're not crazy. I would buy it at seven, seven and a half feels like a lot. I do think that this could turn into kind of a blowout, but the bears defense could show up and keep this kind of close that's sort of what they do yeah it's a pass for me six and a half love it seven okay seven and a half no

thanks i'm in agreement there all right one i think we have one more game this monday football right there's only one monday football game now right yeah it's kind of a bummer um although let's be honest you and i are both asleep for the second game usually. Yes. So the Ravens, road favorites. Over that key number three, they're four at the moment. They're at the Raiders. I mean, I'm not going to be able to talk you into the Raiders, right? Oh, no chance. I would have taken the Ravens,

but there's just too much noise with the Ravens. I can't. There's too much noise. There's running back issues and offensive line issues. The thing about the Raiders here, Matt, is what are they going to score a bunch of points in this game? Are they going to stop the Ravens' rushing attack? They just haven't shown to be any good.

What's the rushing attack, though? We don't know what Lamar looks like. That's my point about why this is a stay away for me. Because the Ravens could come out and just roll out any running back they want and be just fine. But I don't know. But I don't trust the Raiders here anyways. Harbaugh is very good

early in the season against the spread, and I think that he continues that trend most likely here, and I just don't trust John Gruden. He's just not the better coach here. Yeah, that's a bit of a problem. Okay, so here we go. The Ravens are 22-11-1 against the spread on the road since 2017,

covering 15 of those games by double digits. I mean, the Ravens are great. I think that I mentioned that stat about last year and how road favorites early in the season, especially these big public teams against teams that people are down on, tend to disappoint. This feels like one of them to me. If you're still listening to me. If you,

if you're still listening to this show and you open up your desired betting platform and it says five or five and a half for the Raiders, what this number is all over the place. It's moved since we planned the show, go for it. Like you've got my full blessing. This is a game where if Baltimore is going to stumble this season, it happens in this one,

right? Lamar Jackson. We just don't know what he's going to look like. He's obviously had COVID before. He might recover really well. Who knows? Gus Edwards. Everyone's like, you know, fantasy drafts. Everyone's like, cool, Gus Edwards.

He's going to be awesome. Like, is he? Their backup is currently Lev Bell, who's on the practice squad, and Tyson Washington? Williams? Washington? He's on my fantasy team. I should know. Undrafted rookie who we haven't seen play before sammy watkins their number one receiver let's see if

you can make it through a game we they have nobody on their offense right and they lost some key pieces on the defense like they're a mess and let's remember this is the raiders first game in las vegas with fans the fans are going to be crazy on monday night this is this is the kind of game that john gruden can win and go to then go to mark davis and be like see 10 years 100 million worth it like i i just i feel like this is a chance to fade the ravens with the points i'm a little bit tempted to take them on the money line because the odds the raiders are going to be tasty um but i know that you have no chance that you're going to be on this. So we have one spot left.

Would you rather put the Raiders or the Chiefs in this spot? I would go with the team that I know is very good in the Chiefs. So let's recap our four. So we have Seattle minus two and a half, a road favorite. Washington and Houston both at home, right? Washington plus one, Houston plus three. Denver minus three, a road favorite. I just feel like we need a home.

I think I might like the Falcons, to be honest, over both of them. Like to go against Sirianni for just laying the three. That's fine with me. Dude, I'll go back to the well with my Falcons. I feel like generally you're right early in the season. I feel like we just need to get off them fast because everyone's going to jump on them. We actually start fast. The middle of the season, pretty sucky, and we finish strong.

Yeah, that's right. Take our eye off the ball. But yeah, I'm good with playing Atlanta here. I would love, I know we're not playing totals, but the total in the Patriots-Dolphins game, like it just screams to me a wager that I would love to make. But obviously, we're not doing that here. So we have our college plays, our NFL plays.

Matt, welcome, buddy. We're rolling ahead, man. We are full steam ahead on NFL and college gambling this year. Thank you for following me. Please rate, review, subscribe, and have a great weekend, everyone.