Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 3 Picks and The Best Bets for NFL Week 2

Episode Date: September 16, 2021

Geoff and Matt make picks on the four biggest CFB games this weekend, Nebraska vs. OU, Bama vs. Florida, Auburn vs. Penn State, and ASY vs. BYU, plus Geoff shares why Urban Meyer isn’t a good fit for the Trojans. Then Geoff and Matt go through every week 2 game, highlighting a few they want to bet on (Pats vs. Jets, Seahawks vs. Titans) and a few they don’t (Rams vs. Colts, Raiders vs. Steelers). Plus, Matt shocks the world with a risky play, and Geoff battles his Falcons addiction.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, September 16th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. It is our weekend wagering preview where we talk through the biggest college football games of the week and all the NFL action as we have another week of 16 NFL games. We were 3-2 last week in the NFL and a good start to our Super Contest season.

We'll give you our five favorite picks plus some other props we like throughout the week. And of course the college is please rate review, subscribe. If you like listening to this, we really appreciate it. It's good for business. When you do that,

Matt, how are you buddy? It was an eventful first weekend of NFL action. It really was. I'm used to like three months to prepare for every game and every line. And now we only have a matter of days. There's my team plays tomorrow. Like this is overwhelming.

So I don't know. I don't know how we'll do this week. Hopefully we'll hang in there. I think we'll be okay. We're going to have a mix. I can already tell some public plays and some sharp plays. But sometimes those public plays are just okay to have. And we will get into those.

But first, college football. Let's go to the biggest, I guess, renewed rivalry of the week before we get to the biggest game of the week. Nebraska at Oklahoma. This old story, Big 12 rivalry has not been played since 2010. It is back this weekend. Oklahoma right now is a 22-point favorite. It is a large weekend. Oklahoma right now says a 22-point favorite. It is a large favorite for Oklahoma.

And I'm going with Oklahoma for a couple reasons here. One is they have the better coach by far in Lincoln Riley, who is not great against the spread, but often has inflated lines, and the much better quarterback in Spencer Rattler. Scott Frost, Nebraska head coach, has yet to beat a ranked opponent at his time in Lincoln and has only covered four of 12 contests against ranked teams. Obviously, Oklahoma is ranked third in the country.

Offensively, Nebraska struggles a lot. Adrian Martinez is a quarterback who is better at running the football, the passing the football, which doesn't bode well against an offense. Oklahoma's going to score a ton of points. They've scored at least 27 points in 65 straight games. 65 straight games. Nebraska last week, offensively, 28 points against Buffalo. One of those was a 70-yard touchdown pass.

The other one was a one-yard touchdown run after a turnover. One play, one yard. I think Oklahoma woke up after that Tulane game. Now, they played Western Carolina last week. It was 76-0. But I feel like they're going to understand they cannot let off the gas. They're up 37-14 to Tulane at halftime of week one, and won that game 40-35.

They scored three second-half points. They understand they can't let off the break here, and it's a rivalry game. And if you look at when Lincoln Riley with either Baker either baker kyler or spencer rattler who are different quarterbacks than jalen hertz whenever they play a big time game and who's not iowa state they score a ton of freaking points man they score a ton of points and this is not iowa state everybody so i like the i like excuse me oklahoma here minus the 22 i know big number big number you might get it better on saturday i have a feeling this is kind of creeping down matt you. You might get this. If you get under 21, you have to jump on it, man.

Even if you're on the fence about it. Under 21, which I don't think you'll get to, but give me Oklahoma here. I mean, who am I to go against you? But here are some things to consider. This opened around 19 and a half. It's up to 22, which if you are on Oklahoma, you've kind of maybe missed the number. It's who knows where it's going tolahoma you've kind of maybe missed the number it's who knows where it's going to go you've got 96 of the money on oklahoma so it feels like it could keep moving um you mentioned scott frost obviously this is a uh an unequal coaching matchup but he is uh six and four against the spread on the road as an underdog uh in his last 10 even though they've only won one of those games uh and ok, interestingly, only 15-11 against the spread

as a home favorite. So with Rattler and his turnover, his interception issues, this could be one of those backdoor scenarios. I personally would wait on this for Nebraska and see if I can get it up 23, 22.5. I think it's going back the other direction now. It's an interesting one. I can't believe these spreads where it's like, yeah, I have to lay 22.

It's like, my God, it takes a lot of stomach to do. It does. It does. It's tough. But, you know, look, we're giving you our thoughts on the big games of the week. Otherwise, I'd just talk to you about, you know, Utah, San Diego State, but you guys don't want to hear that. So, again, I mean, this is just the advice we're giving you

on some of the bigger games of the week. I didn't take this number, but I'm not betting on Nebraska either. So, I would lean toward Oklahoma here. Anything more on this game, Matt? No, let's move to – I think we should move to the game of the week here. Let's do it. Yeah, so that's Alabama number one at Florida number 13. Alabama is laying 14 points on the road.

This is the first time they've played in Gainesville since 2011. That's crazy. What do you think? So I like Florida first half. I got a plus seven and a half. This line's coming down too, guys. It was about 15. It's going back down to 14 now.

Here's why I like Florida in the first half of this game. This is Alabama quarterback Bryce Young's first true road game, right? They played that neutral site game against Miami. But this is Gainesville, Florida, the swap, right? It is going to be loud. It's going to be wild. It's going to be crazy. If there's any time Alabama will struggle this season, it's in this spot, right, Matt?

It's in this spot where you're facing a Todd Grantham defense for Florida that's very diverse and multiple in the pressures they bring. They're 15th right now in the country in defensive efficiency, and this is, I think, just a slow start for Alabama. They're more talented than Florida, but they're going to start slow. Dan Mullen, the quarterback, excuse me, the coach for Florida, is actually pretty good against covering against Saban. He's covered five of his last eight games against Nick Saban, which is not bad, right? They keep these games sort of close. Offensively for Florida, Emory Jones can't play anymore.

We'll see if he does play. But this Anthony Richardson kid is averaging 25 yards per carry at quarterback, right? He is a dual-threat guy that can run and pass the ball. Those always give Nick Saban defenses trouble. They give every defense trouble, right? But specifically to his defense, because they're out of structure plays place and it's hard for defense to game plan for a structure place so i'll take the i would even if you have a little extra money laying around florida first half money

line might be worth a little sprinkle here but i'll take florida first half plus seven and a half and i do think i just the full number the full game number this feels like again like i don't really trust the full game but i'll take the first half get slow start for bryce young on the road first true road game i love that play that's such a smart read on the game um it looks like it's we're recording this wednesday afternoon it looks like richardson's gonna be fine for the game which is which is great this situation reminds me of like the dalton fields situation that's happening in the nfl at the same time uh i'm on a group thread with a bunch of uh bettors who also went to uf and they were like if richardson's playing we got a chance if richardson's not playing do not touch this

game and that was good enough for me um i do love that first half play given you know we even saw this in the nfl with these with know, the adjustment to a road environment. Look, tons of, I think 96% of the bets or something are on Alabama. So if you like Florida, you know, maybe wait, although this Richardson thing could push it. But yeah, I think your first half play is a nice angle. Yeah, we have to try to find some angles on some of these. But this is one of those that I did wager on. Like, again, you know, and I do wager on all the nfl games we talk about i put it in there because

that's what we do right gotta walk the walk yeah of course um all right let's get to uh one more bigger game this week before we get to one one game out west that's auburn at penn state what do you got mad at that one yeah auburn at penn state let's set that up. Penn State, their first whiteout game in two years. They're favored by six. What an intriguing game. I mean, I'm very curious what you think. So this is, again, same as we saw with kind of Bryce Young. Now, Bo Nix has played a lot of football,

but Bo Nix at Auburn has just kind of been okay. This is Brian Hartson's first game, first true road game, right? They played like Bethune-Cookman and Akron State or something like that in the first two games under Brian Hartson. Now they're on the road in a whiteout game and the line is now under a touchdown, right? Penn State is favored by six here.

Penn State's defense, I think, is going to suffocate Alabama's offense. Again, going on the road for the first time is very tough. The issue that I see for, if you're backing Penn State, is that Sean Clifford, their quarterback, is just the first time is very tough. The issue that I see for if you're backing Penn State is that Sean Clifford, their quarterback, is just okay. He's just okay. But they already have a ranked win at Wisconsin.

A lot of people, a lot of Sharps put money on Ball State last week to cover against Penn State. Guess what? Penn State blew them out. Penn State covered that game. I think Penn State's a better team right now. They're at home. It's under a touchdown.

It's hard for me to see Auburn keeping this game. They played no one near the level of Penn State so far this year. Penn State's already played Wisconsin. They're already seasoned. They're ready to go. They're at home, wide out. Give me Auburn here under a touchdown at minus six. How about a little three-team tease, Jeff? How about you tease Penn State down to either a pick or getting a point? Jeff. How about you tease Penn State down to either a pick or getting a point? Maybe you tease down Oklahoma to maybe two touchdowns or so. Maybe tease down Bama. What do you think of that? Maybe like a little favorite seven-team, three-team tease. Okay, so we take Alabama to seven, and we take, oh, what was it? Six or seven points. What are we doing? Let's see. We currently have Bama at 14.

So, yep, we can just make that at even seven. Even seven. We get Penn State at plus one. And we would get Oklahoma now at, what, 15 and a half? 15, I should say? Yep, 15. Okay. It's not bad.

I wouldn't mind that. I'd be concerned about the Alabama one, though. I don't know. Like I said, I don't really. Seven points. They're going to win that game. The thing about that game, too, real quick, you bet that game is, if Alabama blows out Florida,

there's no chance to lose to anyone this season. And I get that they're probably not going to lose to anyone anyways, but all the hope, like, oh, maybe Georgia can play well against them, or maybe Clemson can play well, or Ohio State, or Oregon, or whoever else it is. No chance,

zero chance. It is over right now. If Florida, if Alabama with Bryce Young is a, is a, is a first time starter going to the swamp and a packed Gainesville and blow out a good Florida, Florida would be a favorite over 120 teams in the country right now.

Right. Go in there and dominate. Oh boy. So I'm good with that teaser we should give out more teasers i think sometimes especially the nfl side like there's there's a lot of opportunities to have teasers we just obviously don't don't do that quite often because that's not really because we're just picking five games against the spread but there's a lot of teaser opportunities that always feel easy they're never never that easy um but uh but yeah that's where that's where

we're at right now yeah the teasers bailed me out last week i had kind of a tough week everyone did then yeah the teasers can be nice we went three and two and we had an under i gave hit i went four and two in nfl i'll take it yeah i i loaded up on the texans thank god that covered for some serious investment in uh tampa and washington well um we'll get to the nfl why don't we hit our last game out west? It's Arizona State at BYU. The Sun Devils are laying three and a half. Yeah, and BYU's been a great team at home over the last couple years. But they're off their biggest win in years.

They beat Utah in the Holy War, ending a nine-game losing streak. And they did it in... It was just okay. I mean, Utah, I watched that game, and it felt like more of a failure of Utah. I mean, BYU only averaged 4.94 yards per play on offense. On defense, they only had seven havoc plays. They just, like, didn't play all that great and won this game.

They didn't play all that great and beat Arizona a couple weekends ago, 24-16. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors with them. Here's one right here. Their defense is only allowing 27% on third down right now. But they're allowing 70% of passes to be completed and near five yards of carry on the ground. It just feels like a lot of smoke and mirrors with this BYU team. Arizona State comes in with Jaden Daniels,

who's a dual threat quarterback, already 165 yards rushing this year. 73% passing in the Southern Utah and UNLV. But I think Arizona State, excuse me, BYU off that big emotional win. Arizona State overwhelms them with their speed and talent. I think Arizona State covers here minus three and a half. It's interesting. That seems to be the logic for most of the things I've read over the last few days. The flip side of this argument, just to have it,

is Arizona State hasn't played anyone yet, right? And they sort of ran away late against unlv and before that against southern utah so this is a huge step up in competition for them and i get it off the emotional win but like byu's coming home this is arizona state's first road game it's obviously a crazy environment there at byu you know it from the nfl betting perspective right like this this is a short home a short home dog against a team that hasn't played anybody. Like this actually feels like a nice spot for BYU

if you like them here. So I'm curious what you think of that. Well, it definitely is. I just don't think BYU is that good. I think Utah just played a really bad game. My radio co-host, Sean O'Connell, is a Utah grad, and he has said that that was one of the most lackadaisical games he's seen Utah play under Kyle Whittingham.

The lack of effort and just kind of the idea of rolling their helmet out and winning because they're Utah and they've won nine straight years is kind of doesn't that's the reason why this game was lost. More than like BYU schematically

beating them. And I think Arizona State is just more talented. Again, they have a much better quarterback here. So I get what you're saying. And again, BYU's 5-1 against the spread as an underdog the last six games. They've won 10 straight home games, but they haven't played a team like Arizona State in a while. Yeah. Well, the Sharps and the public are both on Arizona State,

which is usually a sign that it's either a slam dunk or it's one that everyone missed. So I think you're probably right. And who am I to go against the Pac-12 expert here? Real quick, before we fully transition to the NFL, this is a good bridge. Did you see that there was a report today that Urban Meyer is definitely not interested in the usc job that that came up at a press conference after one week at jaguar's headquarters like what are we doing here this is gonna be a brutal season jeff it's gonna be pretty bad um josiah johnson it's maybe the best twitter great follow follow on on twitter um and he tweeted out a picture of uh i don't know what the name of the USC,

I think it's just Trojan Man, I guess, as Wu is, but the guy who kind of rides Traveler and leads the marching band. And he said, he took a picture of him on a knee and said, how Urban Meyer pulling up to the Jags Halloween party in his full USC costume. All he needs is going to USC.

I just saw a tweet, by the way, that said USC will not use a search firm to hire a new coach. Yeah, they don't need to. They have Twitter to do that for because every single coach who's ever coached... So there's been about... We have the normal names, right? We have Matt Campbell, Luke Fickle, and Oregon's

coach, Mario Cristobal, and we've had James Franklin and Bill O'Brien and... Brennan, the guy from San Jose State who's an up-and-coming guy. We've heard about Joe Brady. We've heard about, I think there's a Clemson assistant coach as well

that's been in the mix. We've heard Colin Coward mentioned Doug Peterson, Matt Nagy, like every coach who's ever coached. Urban, Bob Stoops, who's ever coached a game is going to be mentioned for this usc job and um there we have four months to hire someone basically and it's going to be a long winding road

to figure out who this coach is i do not think it's urban meyer though so um he's got his own issues to deal with plus what the thing about usc2 is if you're hiring a coach urban has shown he's not staying at one place for a long period of time. So if you hire, is it worth it to have, you know, basically, let's say you have him for four years. Obviously, you win a title. It's worth it.

What if you don't? You kind of wasted four years again. So I don't think he's going there. But let's go to the NFL now. We're three and two last week. It's a fun week of games. You texted me beforehand that you're going to blow my mind at some point. So I'm waiting for this to happen in this pocket.

Just be aware, guys, for Matt to throw out a take nugget as he tweeted, as he texted me. But let's go with Thursday night football. I like that you don't know where it's going to come. And I'm going to tell you this. It's going to come where you least expect it. It's going to come out of nowhere, and you're going to be like, how is this the thing you were digging in on this week? I'm going to tell you this. It's going to come where you least expect. It's going to come out of nowhere, and you're going to be like, how is this the thing you were digging in on this week?

I'm surprising myself. I'm looking forward to this nugget. But let's start with Thursday Night Football, your football team, the Washington football team is playing the New York football Giants. Yeah, what a mess of a game for Thursday. Washington right now is a three-and-a-half point favorite. Obviously no Ryan Fitzpatrick. The total on this is 40-and-a-half, which is insane.

There are some games that are in the 50s. What's your lean here? So Giants have been in Washington five times in a row, and they've covered four of those games. They were 6- one last year as a road dog were the giants 10 and 2 in their last 12 in that role as well um and i uh i would lean giants here but the problem with this game and why i'm not wagering on it maybe you are or maybe you want to put it in there is that daniel jones is terrible in a turnover machine and i just don't

trust him and their offensive line has some shuffling around to do on a short week. Guys in and out of the lineup against Washington, too. I think, look, Washington's defensive line kind of got embarrassed by the Chargers. The Chargers, and look, we might have won that game that Fitz played still. We don't know. Obviously, Fitz was out earlier in that game. But Chargers' offensive line kind of embarrassed that defensive line. And I think they're going to get after the Giants.

Again, there's no value in the under either. I i think that's the under is to play here if you're betting anything in this game but i'm not i'm not touching this game yeah i'm not either i i went in the last 24 hours i've gone full washington full giants um you know because the idea of you know bringing heineke in there and everyone just thinking like, well, him and Fitzpatrick, they're about the same. We don't know that. The thing about, and Daniel Jones owns this team. He's eight wins in the NFL and four of them are against Washington, which is obviously insane. So I think this is probably a layoff game.

It's hard to get a read here. And don't bet on a backup quarterback in this first start that's that's not usually a good idea i'm i am 100 with you oh let's get to the next game yeah um okay our first game on sunday is wow this i mean six uh saints offensive coaches tested positive for covid so we'll see where this line goes. We have it at four right now. The Saints are laying four in Carolina. We don't know where this is going to end up,

but let's pretend it's just going to stay here. What do you think? The Panthers won a game against the Jets by five points last week. I don't think they're very good right now. And Matt Rule is two and6 against the spread at home. The Panthers are 2-9-1 against the spread the last 12 at home. And they're just not very good at quarterback right now. Offensive line is a concern.

Defensively, they're good on defense. But the Saints team, let's take Jameis out of the equation. They're a very loaded roster right offensive defensive lines are elite secondaries played really well great linebackers as well adding james wisdom playing well um i would lean saints here but with the coaching situation and look i just you know again it's a vision rival james only threw one pass over 20 yards last week um so i'm i'm off game, but I think if there was a side, it's the Panthers plus four.

Interesting. I think I'd go the other way, but it's again, it's a layoff for me. We do this. I bring this stat up every year. There's each McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook each have a divisional kryptonite. The Saints kind of own McCaffrey.

He started six games against the saints the panthers are one in five he has a total in those six games of 193 rushing yards and 364 receiving yards which like actually sounds pretty good but when you break that down especially compared to who he how he performs against everyone else not great and by the way most of those passing yards came in one blowout loss uh the first time he ever played them. So I think that Carolina, you're kind of getting at the peak of their value. They barely beat Zach Wilson in his first start on the road, right? It was a nice win, fine. A lot of props.

A lot of like, oh, maybe Darnold isn't so bad. I think we're kind of catching them at the top of the market. And then everyone's sort of not giving the Saints enough credit, I don't think, for absolutely demolishing the packers like whether or not we're throwing that game out yeah like it might not matter at the end it might not make sense in a few weeks but like you would think the pendulum would like heavily swing uh towards the saints but people are just so afraid of winston so look i think the coaching thing is is just kind of strange you don't really know how to play that this is a layoff i I think, just for that reason. But I would not be shocked if this was another Saints ass-kicking.

Yeah, I think there's too many things that we don't know about here to wager on this game. Yeah, it's a pass. Two passes. Two interesting games, though. Next one, man, Bengals at Bears. Oh, this is at two now interestingly so chicago is only laying two to joe burrows bangles i think the bangles are the play here um with joe burr

there's seven three and one against the spread he looked um he looked pretty good the other day the offensive line had some issues inside the tackles played pretty well um and the bears defense just looked old against the Rams. Rams came out and kind of had their way with them. They've only covered one of their last six as home, as a favorite. They're three and seven at home since 2010 as a home favorite. I guess they're not a home favorite very often. But I would – I actually go Bengals here, but two is –

it was like four this week, three and a half this week. Um, two is not the best number, but I do think the Bengals are going to win this game. I, I don't think I can possibly stomach putting this in our five. This is, this is like textbook overreaction. Bet the bears. It's textbook. Bet the bears here.

Right. Because everyone, right. We're not doing that. like textbook overreaction bet the bears it's textbook bet the bears here right because everyone right we're not doing that we came everyone came in and was like man the bangles like they're they're garbage and then you know they beat minnesota and we'll see what you know that was kind of a crazy game right there was a dalvin cook questionable fumble it was overtime there are lots of things that could have gone wrong there. The fact that this is a two, this is a Bears play, the smart play. You also could have Justin Fields come in this game, right? Like he came in at the end of the Rams game.

The Rams game, like, by the way, like wasn't a total blowout, like the whole game. It just kind of, you know, at the end, it just was so obvious and they put Fields in and whatever. I don't know, man. This one just doesn't, this one is a little fishy to me i think this is a little bit of a trap because everyone's going to want to bet the bangles this week no one is going to want to touch the bears yeah i'm i'm again i'm gonna stay away but if we do it's gotta be the bangles pass all right oh for three let's talk about i think the biggest line on the board here houston at cleveland's uh cle Cleveland's 12 and a half point favorites.

Thoughts? Can I interest you in a Houston first half? I know that's not what we do here, but the Browns just lost their Super Bowl, guys. They just lost the game they prepared for all offseason to play. And I saw a Baker Mayfield, or someone, not a quote from Baker,

but someone on the team who's told the media that Baker and Jarvis Landry had to have a talk with the team about keeping their heads up for the rest of the season. Like, ugh. That doesn't, ugh. Really? Week one? We're already talking about, like, being depressed?

And look, they lost in horrific fashion. Three turnovers in the second half. And they're just not, just goes to Chiefs. They're just not ready. Baker Mayfield's not ready for that life. But Houston's off a big win against Jacksonville.

They're just not a very good team still. They beat a very bad Jacksonville team. But the full game, if we had to take this, you take Houston, right? 12 and a half points?

That's a lot of points. I don't think the Texans are as bad as people think. They're fun to laugh at. But they do have some talent on their team. But I think if you're willing to play this game it's texans first half are you leaning browns here i am so intrigued by this take because i actually was on cleveland and was gonna make not an impassioned case by any means but a case for them uh this in

the preseason this was like 13 13 and5, and now it's 12.5. So we're giving Houston a point here for beating a rookie in his first start and Urban Meyer, which may be a total disaster. And Cleveland not getting any credit for a really nice performance against the best team in the league probably. I could see that, I mean, you raised all those points. That has me a little bit concerned concerned but i could also see this one just being an absolute ass kicking like coming to cleveland right home home opener i think right like i think i think it's fair i think you could you do this

game texans first half browns full game i mean it's a little exotic yes yes that'd be a strange game yeah well no not really right i mean if the first mean, it's a little exotic. I guess. Yes. That'd be a strange game. Yeah. Well, no, not really, right? I mean, if the first half is, it's a close game, and then Browns second half just kind of rush over them at the end. Worth pointing out here that Browns only cover two of their, they've only covered two of their past eight as a favorite. Huh?

Yeah, this is the kind of game that they tend to blow. This is, here's a teaser game for us. This is a good seven pointer to pair with two others. Here's a teaser game for us. This is a good seven-pointer to pair with two others. Let's flag that. Yeah, this is a pass. You don't want to take a team favored by this much. Good survivor pick, though, like them for that. Browns have a little bit of a tougher schedule coming up,

so I'll be going with them as survivors. All right, we're four or five down now and nothing on the board here. Maybe this will be one of them. The Rams are playing the Colts, laying three and a half in Indy. God, I hate the Colts. Yes, and we're playing the Rams. It's done.

We're not playing on the Colts. Guys, I have been anti-Colts entire offseason, and they showed exactly why I'm anti-Colts in the first game. They look like crap on offense because Carson Wentz is not good. Dan Arlovsky, who is the biggest defender of old Carson Wentz, and them, he tweeted this out. The Colts need to spend time and emphasize on Carson Wentz and his drops in the shotgun.

He had to catch and hop out of his game. They need to get much faster, which will help the quick game catch timing. And when are they going to do this? In the middle of the season? This is what training camp was for, right? He didn't play in training camp. He's off a foot injury and now he's back against a Rams defense who looked a little bit less than we

thought, less than last year, which we thought was going to happen, but nonetheless played well against the Bears. But offensively, they're coming with sort of the same offense that Seattle ran, right? This McVay-Shanahan offense we know that they're good in with sort of the same offense that Seattle ran right this McVay Shanahan offense we know that they're good at that Seattle started to run

and Seattle hit them with a ton of play action pass guess what the Rams do a ton of play action pass and guess what they do take deep shots and guess what Russell Wilson did take deep shots

to me this feels like it's under four now it wasn't at four most of the week and it might get to three by kickoff but give me the Rams minus three and a half

I don't give a shit if it's a public play I do not last week we if it's a public play. I do not. Last week, we took Seattle. Same spot. Public play on the road. Don't take Seattle because Carson Wentz and they play defense and blah, blah, blah.

Aaron Dahl is going to chew them up. It's the left tackle situation. Still a problem for Indy. Had some issues last week. I think the Rams win this game going away. I'm willing to put it through to the contenders i'm going to give you three stats that make no sense are you ready for them yeah first of all uh indy is oh and four against the spread as home dogs in reich's tenure what is that that's insane

number two sean mcveigh in his first two weeks of the season, right? So week one, week two, he's seven and one straight up. The only time he lost was the first year in week two where he was playing his former team, Washington. You want to know why? You want to know why that is? Because he spends all off season with new plays, comes out and kicks people's asses. And Frank Wright,

the stat about that just shows you his team has not been that good, right? Like home dogs like have to kind of have some like a little bit of like grit and something and just i think they just don't have that sometimes and not with sorts of ones they don't well here's the third step frank rake we talked last week he's winless in his season openers that that trend held he's also never lost in week two how bizarre is that it's so it's so interesting that maybe there's an adjustment having said all of that uh i do think the rams are the play if we can get them i mean i would love three well now we're doing this on wednesday so we have to give three and a

half let's lock the three and a half i'm fine considering it for the next round it's obviously that's a crap number and a road team and you know against a team that just lost their home opener that should distantly be kind of good this line was at one by the way till yeah till after this game so yeah that's that's worrisome to catch it this late but i'm willing to consider it still because come on what are we doing here? All right. So that's a maybe. Let's move to, man, Denver at Jacksonville. Denver is laying six at Jacksonville. Are we going to do it? Are we going to do which one?

I mean, the play is Jacksonville. I know. That would definitely be what you do here. Preseason, Denver was favored by one and a half. Now they're up to six. I think this is, again, the stink of Houston sort of wearing off here and carrying into the second week where everyone was like, man, if they can't beat Houston, they must be terrible.

Yeah, but my my issue here with taking jacksonville is vic fangio the broncos coordinator is gonna just make life miserable for trevor lawrence i mean you have to hope this game like it's 13 10 to cover this i mean it's just not i just don't see jacksonville scoring that's the problem it's like i'm with you on on you know taking the home the home dog at six and a half six points with everyone's betting on denver this week i mean i can't i imagine denver is getting all the bets this week but yeah oh dude it's it's that matchup scares the shit out of me i i mean let's just say this this is one in theory that we should take. This is not a great team laying six on the road after a really bad week. It's an overreaction. Having said that, I'm not really interested in doing it. have no floor like i don't see them being like yeah come on they'll get it together like look

at their infrastructure like look at all the better like it's a ton of rookies it's a ton of guys who still don't like haven't played a lot together with a coach who doesn't know the league super well like and it's teddy bridgewater who covers like that's like that's a part of this too i just think this number is crazy yeah i would i just would stay the heck away from this game yeah let's just pass it dude because screw that we're not we're not telling we're not gonna use our platforms to thousands of listeners to say bet the jaguars we're better than that millions of listeners tens of millions one of the afc east battles let's start with Buffalo. Three and a half point road favorites at Miami. Public is all over Buffalo here.

75% of the bets and a big discrepancy in the money that I don't have in front of me. What do you think here? It's got to be the Dolphins, right? Yeah. With all the money on Buffalo here. Buffalo didn't look very crisp against Pittsburgh. Now part of that was because Pittsburgh defensively just really got after

Buffalo's offensive line. And the Dolphins can play defense. We know that right now. Tua does worry me a little bit. You know, he's a quarterback that's – everything's kind of very scripted and very, you know, very order orderly like if it gets out of order um it's it's a little bit tough for them but since since early 2009 assuming 2019 the Dolphins are 21 and 7 against the spread like Flores is handling his his job because they play good

defense and great special teams I think look divis look, divisional, home dog, with a lot of money on the visitor. I feel like Miami's the player. It's funny. I had a whole Buffalo take ready to go, and as soon as you started talking, I was like, of course it's Miami. I mean, the thing that kind of worried me was last year.

I forgot about this. Their ass is kicked, yes. Yeah, and it was a game where Miami needed to win, and Buffalo was already in the playoffs, and they put up 56 in two of three picks. Buffalo, desperate, right? They're a team that's desperate for a win, but I think I agree with you.

First of all, the three and a half is brutal if you're laying it with Buffalo, and this is just one-on-one stuff, right? You take the home team that's getting all that everybody's going against them with the road favorite and so they're getting a good number you got to take my envy here you have a home team a cold weather team too going on the road to play a hot a hot game get a divisional opponent um and all the money's on the visitor like this feels like a spot that we historically would take a good coach team it's not jacksonville right but it's a good coach team

getting over a feeling good yeah i like it i like buffalo i actually think too in miami this yeah miami excuse me yeah i think you'll probably get a chance to get this at four um if you're if you're in on the dolphins i would keep an eye out for that in fact i'm pretty sure we're now not not quite there but we're getting we're getting there. All right, let's move Miami through. The other AFC East game is New England at the Jets. New England's six-point home favorites at Zach Wilson's Jets. Six-point road favorites, right? Yes.

Yeah, this is just a no play. I got nothing for you here. The Jets are just not good. They're out there left tackle now. Not very talented on defense. Zachson was just okay in week one now he gets to face bill belichick um you know who uh who obviously you know eats up younger quarterbacks um i i'm new england's getting six i their favorite i'm not doing it man i'm not touching it what are you thinking here it comes jeff here it is i like the new york jets plus six this week and i'm going to tell you why okay this stupid trend of bill belichick playing against rookies like i get it right he dominates rookies straight up okay but when you actually take a look at the numbers,

he's what, 20 and five or something against rookies. When you actually look at the against the spread numbers, it's closer to 500. But here's the thing with all of these trends over time, right? He had Tom Brady, okay? New England, since 2003, they're 58.4% against the spread, by far the best in the league. Without Tom Brady, they're seven and 10 against the spread. By far the best in the league. Without Tom Brady, they're 7-10 against the spread. They're a totally different team. These numbers about how great he is against rookie quarterbacks. Do you think a game in 2004 where they beat Luke McCown or 2007 against Trent Edwards or EJ Manuel in 2013, do people really think that matters? I the mckay beckton thing is is brutal it's bad but the line has moved from three to six like every single person is doing the like well it's belichick

well it's rookie quarterbacks well they also have a rookie quarterback this is his first road game ever and last week the patriots lost to the dolphinsua was the 30th rated passer on PFF last week. He was terrible, and they still beat the Patriots. The Patriots just might not be that good. I think that we have to possibly accept that. Six points for a team that, by the way, just played a road game against the Panthers, didn't look terrible in Zach Wilson's first start. I think that this is like everybody psyching themselves into the Patriots here. And we have a real opportunity with the Jets. This isn't the same Jets team,

just like this isn't the same Patriots team. You know what, buddy? This is a classic hold your nose and bet game. And we won one last week with the Houston Texans. And let's go back to the New York Jets. Gabe's going to lose his shit when he listens to this. But that's his own problem. So New York Jets plus six.

I'm with you here. A couple other odd, little odd trends here. Let me pull the trend page up here. Where's the scheme? Okay. Belichick has only covered five of his last 14 against the Jets. Odd, right? Pats were two and six against the line last season.

On the road, I should say. And Jets have covered last 4-5 at home. Now, obviously, new coaching staff and whatnot. But, you know, this is a – I'm with you here. I think this is – look, especially since the Patriots want to run the football, right? They want to keep games within six points. Like, that's their goal, right? I mean, they would have beat the Dolphins by three, most likely,

and then they don't even cover that game either, right? They would field goal right before the fumble. So I'm good with the Jets here. We don't have a lot of games either on here, so we need to start adding them in, and I'm good with the Jets on the list. One other thing here. Last year, Belichick lost to Tua, who is not even a good rookie quarterback. He lost to Tua last year, okay?

Tom Brady was not there. Here's the other thing. In that epic streak of all these rookie quarterbacks he beat, he lost to Russell Wilson in his first start. He lost to Mark Sanchez in his first start. It happens. It also helps that he played a lot of bad quarterbacks. Look at the rest of the AFC East and, frankly, the AFC.

He beat Ben Roethlisberger by a point. He beat Deshaun Watson by three. Those were both covers, if I'm not mistaken. It's a little bit of smoke and mirrors, this whole fucking Belichick thing. Let's go. Let's go, Jets. I love it. Let's go.

I love it. Let's go, Jets. J-E-T-S. Jets, Jets, Jets. That will either be a brilliant call or the stupidest call I've ever made, but I'm willing to put myself out there and let's see. Okay. Great game here.

San Francisco going to Philly. San Francisco, three and a half point road favorites. Another one I've gone back and forth on a hundred times. Where are you? Yeah, I don't feel like playing this game for a couple reasons. So one, the Eagles offensively look pretty good with Hurts. Offensive line is back healthy, look great. But a lot of like college kind of like trick-em-dick-em stuff from the Eagles.

But a lot of college kind of trick-em-dick-em stuff from the Eagles. It's hard to really buy into this offense until I see more from their offense. Niners' defense is good. We know that. But it just feels like too much. Eagles' defensive line played well. And then came into Atlanta. Niners going across the country now after a game a day,

actually, they're not even on the East coast, by the way. But I, I don't know. It doesn't feel like there's a play here outside the Eagles, but I don't, I don't really trust the Eagles.

Yeah. I kind of feel like this either is a makeup blowout after kind of making it close last week for SF or the eagles are actually kind of good and they come out and they cover this or even flat out win it it is too early to know that i also think the eagles are going to be one of those teams i think the eagles are still going to end up like 6 and 11 or something like that but i wouldn't be stunned if they start out 2 and 0 um you said it i think they were just like a little bit gimmicky last week kyle shanahan is only four and six against the spread as a road favorite with san francisco um so this isn't like the spot where everyone you know where you make money generally and plus this

is a great number for a home dog that's that actually like beat the shit out of a team last week right like they were really good um i could you know i could see philly winning this one outright uh but i could also see that being the stupidest call of all time so i'm i'm very comfortable laying off of this yeah i'm just not we that is better games to have here all right let's pass on that another really fun one after overreactions man these are great games this week uh vegas at pittsburgh pittsburgh is like five and a half currently uh john gruden said darren waller was the best player he ever coached no simeon rice no derrick brooks no john lynch silly interesting yeah pretty silly i i think

the under is the play here by the way you know pittsburgh's offense did not look terribly good last weekend remember they scored on a blocked kick. And their offensive line had some issues up front. And the Raiders, obviously, short week, big overtime win going across the country now. I think they're going to be tough to score on Pittsburgh and tough for the Raiders to score on them. I think I'm staying away from this game. But I would lean the under here i don't i don't feel a great feel for yeah under under is a nice play at 47 uh yeah this is a pass

for me i will say that um ben roethlisberger graded out i think is the worst quarterback in pff last week or second worst um he did not play well and they still beat buffalo i you know it wasn't comfortable by any means but they still went to buffalo and beat them yeah i don't exactly know what to do with that i feel like pittsburgh might end up having a similar season of last year where they just like wrap teams up at the beginning and injury happens and then they kind of fade but that could be really bad news for Buffalo, which would support our thinking earlier. Yeah, yeah. So that's where I'm at with that game.

Yeah, Steelers, I think, are going to win. You know, like Raiders coming off that crazy win flying across the country for an early window game Sunday is not a great advantage for them. But yeah, I don't know. Okay, Minnesota at Arizona. we've got four and a half for arizona currently everyone's all over kyler murray everyone's off kirk cousins what do you think oh boy um so i don't want to overreact to week one because I'm not on that high in Arizona.

And Arizona has played very well the start of seasons. And really, Kingsbury has been good the start of seasons. And the Vikings just didn't look like dog shit. And this line is obviously going to be inflated in a direction. I just would stay away from this. But I think I would. I don't even have a lead do you have a lean on this yeah my lean is minnesota um i think what's interesting here i'm trying to find

what the pre-season line was here because this one didn't really move despite one of the most i guess like stunning results of week one like it just seemed like everyone was like really forward yeah they were uh three and a half point dogs the vikings going into the season and they in vegas only just did a little despite all that interest so that that to me means that they maybe know something or have a lean um the the thing with minnesota is they go they next week they play seattle and they've never beaten russell wilson and then the week after that they play cleveland and they've never beaten Russell Wilson. And then the week after that, they play Cleveland,

and they're playing against Kevin Stefanski, who was their former offensive coordinator. They kind of need this one. And Arizona, everything went right for them. It was the first game for Todd Downing in Tennessee. Derrick Henry didn't do anything. Taylor LeJuan clearly was not 100% and had some other stuff going on maybe. I kind of think that that might have been a little bit of an inflation, but it concerns me that we can't get a better number here.

So I would put Minnesota on the board, but also this game could be a blowout and Mike Zimmer could be fired by week five. I think he's too good of a coach for that. We'll put Minnesota down on the maybe pile because there's a couple games left here that I just

are going to be bet. So, I'll put him on the maybe pile. And if you try to convince me to take this, whatchamacallit,

the dog in his next game, I'm not going to try too hard. It's Tampa Bay laying 12 against the Falcons. The Falcons, I mean, we just need to never bet the Falcons early in the season ever again. We just can't do it.

Since I've known you, Jeff, I think me too. Yeah. I've lost more money. But only for like weeks one through five because then we get it and we're like, we're not touching this team. But it's like an early lesson

we have to pay every single year. I don't know i will say jeff this line has moved from nine and a half to 12 one of the biggest swings of the week uh i will also say that last year in week 15 when tampa was on that magical run that was sort of just starting the falcons were actually up 17 nothing with four minutes left in the third quarter and lost so it's they too they do tend to play fairly close but uh i don't know we're not touching it we're not doing i don't we're not going against the bucks right now no chance yeah 14 maybe 14 and a half doing it late games start with dallas at the chargers uh chargers are three point home favorites but lol it's gonna be all cowboys fans so what do you think i just i don't

really have a read on this game do you i think this is a great game for dallas right like they get a little bit of extra rest uh they're going to a friendly field you would think last week i mean you said it earlier like the chargers kind of got lucky right like granted you know they got some bad luck with that crazy herbert fumble out of the end zone thing uh but gibson fumbled it basically the next play fitzpatrick went out the the washington defense was about as bad as i've seen them look under ron rivera maybe they got a little too obsessed with themselves. I just don't think the Chargers made a big statement,

and I think Dallas did. And furthermore, the way that Dallas wins games is they get into a track meet, and that's the way that the Chargers are going to have to try to win this game. It's not like they're going to ball control it with Larry Roundtree and Austin Eckler. This is going to be a shootout, and that favors Dallas. I think I like them on the money line.

Yeah. Oh, no. I just don't have a feel for this game at all. I just think, I mean, it's possible that their Cowboys do bounce back here, but defensively, they're kind of a wreck. And Herbert was, I'll tell you this, Herbert was good. Charger offensive line was good. The, what? Keenan Allen you this, Herbert was good. Charger offensive line was good. The, what?

Keenan Allen was great too. Yeah, and we're not going to overreact to one Chargers game. I just, I feel like there are still better plays on the board. But I'm willing to think about Dallas. Let's put them on the maybe list, but you keep teasing that you've got some other feel here. So maybe it's this one. Is it Tennessee going to Seattle?

Yeah. Seattle's 5.0. I don't care. I don't care. Again, if this is a public play, do not care less about this. A couple of things to consider here. Under Arthur Smith,

who's now the faculty coach, the Tennessee Titans were a heavy, heavy play action team. Like that's what they did. They ran a ton of play action pass. Guess what they didn't do week one with Todd Downing as their OC? Play-action pass. Two times. 5% of their snaps were play-action pass.

On the other side, Seattle ran a ton of it. And guess what? They're good at it. Because guess what? Russell Wilson's good, right? Like, the Titans, to me, defensively, first of all, were a wreck last season as well, right? Come out week one after knowing you need to be better on defense.

Guess what? Arizona torches them. Torches them. Seattle doesn't have Chandler Jones. I get that. But now they're back home. Titans are flying across the country too. Seattle, by the way, who had no fans last year.

Their fans are all back. They're going to be screaming, yelling. It's going to be loud. And I just don't trust Tennessee's offense to just all of a sudden decide to be something they weren't. They practiced all through training camp doing one offense, which is not a lot of play action pass obviously. And now they're going to start doing

it all over again. Remember, they were very successful with one style of football. Run the ball, play action pass, and the Cardinals, out of all teams, made it look like shit in week one. So it's a huge overreaction I get it we're overreacting to week one here a little bit but we're waiting for Seattle to run a semi-normal offense for a while now it looks like they have in week one and that has to really

excite you and in a situation too where we've seen over the years Seattle kind of make us look foolish in games that we wager on them. They didn't make us look foolish this past weekend. They finished the game like they should. So I like Seattle here. I know the number's big. Fine with me. I'll take it up to six, dude.

I'm with you. I'll save the listeners time and just say yes to all of that. I do think that, if anything, Seattle's not getting enough credit this was only a three this was a three and a half point line preseason that's up it's only up to five i think tennessee could be the the danger zone team where we just look at them and we're like you know what that team two years ago that beat the patriots and the ravens like you know cory davis is gone like johnny smith is gone taylor the one is not healthy know, Corey Davis is gone. Like, Johnner Smith is gone. Taylor LeJuan is not healthy. Jack Conklin is gone. Arthur Smith is gone.

Like, this is what happens. Like, good teams like that get raided. And now all of a sudden, like, you know, their defense isn't going to bail them out. In fact, it might be worse than last year. So I think that Seattle looked super, super professional in week one. They're amazing in September with Russell Wilson. You mentioned the home crowd. There is almost no number I would not take Seattle here.

No, yeah, over touchdown. But yes, I'm good with Seattle here. All right, let's move it along. Okay, another one I think we're going to maybe consider here is Kansas City at Baltimore. Three and a half point road favorites, Kansas City. The total is 54 and a half, which favorites kansas city uh the total is 54 and a half which is amazing very high so there there is no consideration to be had here pat mahomes

is averaging nearly 370 yards passing a game against the ravens the ravens run a defense called cover zero where they blitz a lot of a lot of guys and no matter the situation they run cover zero it does not matter killed him last week it does not matter if they know what's coming or not that's what they do cover zero guess who knows what's coming the chiefs every single time they know what's coming and every single time they dominate against this defense and guess what they're gonna do the same exact shit against the chiefs again someone asked me this week are they gonna are they gonna run cover zero cover one yes they always do cover zero cover one they're not changing what they do they're stubborn that's what they do

and the Chiefs offensive line had some issues in protection against the Browns this is not that same defense right the Ravens are running these pressures without Marcus Peters without one of their best corners you can get away with running a lot of man coverage because you have great one-on-one cornerbacks you don't have that right now right marlon huffrey's there obviously but peters is not there anymore so you lost one of those guys that help you do that offensively their offensive line look like a wreck look like a wreck kansas should have back honey badger frank clark and gay at linebacker they're going to be better on defense

they're going on the road and unlike last year they actually finished a game which was which was nice to see, right? They finished a game as they should have. And they played well against the Ravens. They've only covered one of the last three wins they had. But remember, they were up 30-10 a couple years ago, and Baltimore had that furious fourth-quarter comeback where Lamar threw two arm punts, if you recall, and they caught both of them.

I think the Chiefs here are going to Baltimore um and handle business i'm with you jeff mahomes undefeated in september 12 and 3 against the spread last year lamar jackson had 28 passing attempts against kansas city when they played through for 97 yards clearly this offense is not even as good as it was last year which is kind of hard to fathom she the baltimore offensive line did not look ready for prime time ronnie stanley like looked like a total mess which was i did not have that one on my bingo card um and you mentioned the cover zero which which is if that doesn't stop zay jones it's not stopping tyree kills so let's go chiefs lock it in if we're gonna take the jets we gotta take Chiefs. We got to offset our karma a little bit. Exactly.

All right, we've got the Monday night game is our last game, which is the strangest line of all time. It's the Packers laying 11 against Detroit. I mean, I think it's pretty safe to say we're not going to bet this one, Jeff. But, like, what do you think is going to happen in this? Unless maybe you like the Lions. I think the Packers come out and kick their ass. Okay.

Like, they're a veteran team. They got embarrassed. They're Packers come out and kick their ass. They're a veteran team. They got embarrassed. They're going to come out and kick their ass. What you do is you put your money on the Chiefs. You put the money on Pat Mahomes over passing yards. You put over points. And you put money on the Chiefs to cover that game. Then Monday night, you kick your feet up.

Just enjoy minor football with your wins from this week. And end of story. There's nothing to say about this game. The Lions had a furious comeback to cover that game, barely. It depends what number you got, like out of the blue. They're going to get smoked in this game.

Jared Goff looked terrible. And the Packers coming off an embarrassing, embarrassing loss. Yeah, Jared Goff looked pretty good in the second half, if you caught any of it. I mean, he looked actually kind of amazing. Like the last two minutes of the game.

Yeah, true. There's an injury in the Lions receiving core. I forget who it is. caught any of it i mean he looks actually like two minutes of the game yeah true uh there's a there's an injury in the lions receiving core i forget who it is uh maybe it's tyra williams uh i forget but they're they're down they're down a man there i actually considered making an argument for green bay this line actually moved three points um but also like i like the packers could just end up being a dumpster fire like it's it's possible and the 11 is just strange yeah we do um 11 is a weird number they do own the lions and rogers loves like get right against the division opponent in prime time uh this is a great teaser game if we have another teaser too this this is a really good teaser game i am i am with you i'm with you there all right

you ready yeah rams favored by three and a half dolphins plus three and a half at home jets plus six at home seattle minus five can't say minus three and a half i feel like we got a good mix here of traditional like hold your nose and bet games and also just hey freak it we're gonna be with the public this week yeah we've we've got vikings and cowboys as as barely missing the cut you've got your florida first half money line against alabama i like dallas on the money line uh that that's a fun one uh potentially on late afternoon thursday or yeah i'm with you there all right guys please rate review subscribe i hope you like the more podcasts. We've got some good feedback on those.

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Really appreciate the feedback at Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. Take care. We'll talk to you guys Monday. Have a good one.