Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 4 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 3

Episode Date: September 23, 2021

Geoff and Matt break down the four CFB games they’re betting on the weekend: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame, Texas A&M vs. Arkansas, Oregon State vs. USC, and Rutgers vs. Michigan.  (11:30) After a rough week 2 betting, Geoff and Matt comb through every NFL Week 3 game looking for solid bounce-back bets. They highlight some matchups they’re betting on (Bears at Browns, Dolphins at Raiders) and some they’re staying away from (Saints at Patriots, Cardinals at Jaguars). Plus, they go over how the biggest injuries from last week will affect the lines, and Geoff explains why you need to avoid the fun bets to win.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, September 23rd. Hello, my name is Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford, and this is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You, powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Matt, we have a lot of work to do this week, buddy. We have a lot to do. We are sorry to our listeners for our worst week. Normally we stay this week for like week nine.

Instead, we got it in week two. As usual, we're going to go over a couple of college football games we like. Not a lot of big games this weekend, but there is a monster showdown in Chicago. And then we'll get to the NFL when we're going to stick to our principles, Matt. We're not going to stray. And we're going to keep doing it the right way,

even though we did have an 0-5 week last week. How are you, my man? How do you handle my frantic text messaging to you on Sundays? Well, you're so knee-jerk. Like, you'll say stuff like, oh, we're screwed. And it's like the second play of the game. And it's like, dude, relax.

We got plenty of time. We got Russell Wilson laying the five. I mean, we ended up going on five last week and you were right each time. But usually it's funny. You're like more knee jerk and I'm more like calm. Like, hey, we got time. It's fine. But hey, when people are

people are listening and thinking to themselves hey i'm doing better at betting than you are like you probably are because the public is murdering the people who would like put some thought into this uh for the moment so jeff you said it we're gonna stick to our principles we're gonna do what what got us you know we're gonna dance with the girl that brought us so to speak and take teams that make sense uh and not stray because we're not going to chase oh and five we're on to week three we are on to week three and before we get to the nfl let's get to some big college football games this weekend i will be in chicago for this game notre dame wisconsin neutral site game wisconsin favorite anywhere from six six and a, kind of depending on what you're looking at right now. There's a lot of money on Notre Dame, which makes my pick of Wisconsin

even better, in my opinion. Guys, this is a matchup where we have a team who's struggling on the offensive-defensive lines in Notre Dame. You get the team in Wisconsin who's excelling in those units, and they're off a bye. Notre Dame's offensive line for years, Matt, has been really outstanding. We know that. Because of attrition, they're not as good anymore. They're in the third string left tackle. If you were to guess what they are in the country, Matt,

in yards per rush after playing Florida State, Toledo, and Purdue, what would you guess? You would want them to be that you'd want them to be pretty good in the top third i would guess they're 122nd in the country in in yards per rush not great they're 91st in the country in pressure rate so they they allow a lot of pressure um if their if their offensive line is not protecting very well and they can't get a yard they're not very good in kind of power situations and needing a yard situations whereas wisconsin is really good on defense right they're one of the better defensive teams in the country now they only play two games remember they lost that game to penn state because of their offense on executing not because the defense didn't play

well penn state i think had like 12 first downs the entire game in that game, right? Wisconsin's efficiency numbers, top six in the country. They are really good on defense, right? They lost 16-10 to Penn State. They beat Eastern Michigan 34-7 and now have a buy-in. Jim Leonard will get an opportunity, who's a defensive coordinator, to attack this Notre Dame offense. I don't think Notre Dame scores a lot of points in this game.

The question becomes, obviously, can Wisconsin score enough points in this game? They want to do the same thing that Notre Dame wants to do. They want to rush the football. They have 98 rush attempts this year to 54 passing attempts. But Wisconsin is actually good at rushing the football. And they're able to make that part of their game. And when Notre Dame can't move the ball, rushing the football becomes kind of even more important for them, right?

They're able to kind of just wear down the Notre Dame defense throughout this contest. Is the Jack Cone revenge game, right? The Notre Dame quarterback was at Wisconsin. I just don't think Notre Dame can move the ball enough for this game. So I'll take Wisconsin again, especially because the public's all over Notre Dame. Yeah. Public is still all over Notre Dame, but this line keeps moving in the direction of Wisconsin, which indicates how Vegas feels about this. You're still on the side of the pros at this number, which is around six. It's moving maybe six and a half to Wisconsin. So I agree with the Wisconsin play here for now.

But watch that number. If it's already higher by the time you're listening to this, you probably missed it. Yeah, I think you need to get this before a touchdown. And I think the under is also in play, but I think everyone's betting on the under. So I feel as comfortable taking taking that position um as i do with uh with wisconsin here all right let's get to our our next game here what is it matt uh next up we've got texas a&m at arkansas uh the aggies are road favorites laying five and a half yeah so arkansas obviously off a big win against texas uh then they beat georgia southern pretty

handily 45 45-10. They kind of are the talk of college football right now. Sam Pittman, who is their head coach, former offensive lineman, offensive line coach. I absolutely love how this team is built. However, A&M's just better. They're just better. You know, they had quarterback issues.

King against Colorado got hurt very early in that game. Their new guy, Zach, came in. Struggled against Colorado to play much better against, obviously, a very poor New Mexico team. But I think offensively, they're kind of getting in the right direction. And just defensively, guys, they're really good, right? They're third in the country in points per scoring opportunity. They're second in the country in points per drive, right? They're fifth in the country in yards per drive, right? They're fifth in country in yards per drive.

Like this is a very successful defense. I don't think Arkansas offensively can keep up with them enough to make this a game. I think A&M is just a far better team. I know they're at home, but all the money's in Arkansas too. Like they're the darling. I just, I'm not going with a kind of a public home dog yeah i think you're probably right uh people are probably a little scared uh jimbo fisher is three and oh against arkansas but oh and three against the spread i think people are probably just a little wary um but yeah i'm

with you i think i think you can lay the points with a and m and feel fine about it yeah i'm again like i don't know i i bet wisconsin a and m i'm not quite sure of doing but i i i have already bet the next game matt i'll just go right into it it's oregon state at usc i have bet oregon state plus 12 and i have bet oregon state on the money line um i'm just letting you guys know that this is a great opportunity to to kind of steal a big win if you're oregon state they've been they've been gearing up for this game now for years. Jonathan Smith has built this program up. They beat Oregon last year and they're at the opportunity now

where they can go into the Coliseum and get a win. Oregon State offensively changed their quarterback in the middle of the Purdue game. Chance Nolan has done a good job since then. They played Portland State and Idaho and they smashed both those teams, but they're 19th in the country in points per drive. They're first in points per scoring opportunity and they smashed both those teams. But they're 19th in country in points per drive.

They're first in points per scoring opportunity, and they are a great play-action team. They're 17th in the country in explosive offense. On the flip side, USC's defense has no calling card, right? They played well against Washington State, but Washington State is an awful team. USC's 107th on defense and big play rate. And Oregon State, and we know this about USC, especially on the offensive side of the ball,

they were out physical with USC's defensive line. On the flip side, USC is in quarterback competition. Jackson Dart, the true freshman, played last week. Keaton Silvers was hurt. We don't know who's starting this week. But here's why I never back USC in certain situations. I did back them last week because I think Washington sucked. I was proven right as they crushed them.

When USC plays a physical team, I cannot back them, right? Because physically, they can't do anything. Matt, they scored 45 points against USC. Their running backs had 27 yards on the ground total. I know you don't have to run the football to win the game, but you have to be balanced. When you're not playing Washington State, who has blown six leads in Nick Rolovich's time, when you're playing a good quality coach team, they sit back in zone coverage and don't let you have big plays. USC is 123rd in the country on offense in first and

goal situations. They have 12 red zones appearances and only six touchdowns, 50% success rate. That's not good for a team like USC. So give me the beavers here, especially by the way to Drake London, USC's best wide receiver might be out this game with a concussion. I'm all over Oregon State in this game. I love this.

This line is coming down as we speak. Everyone's going to bet USC, but we have some reverse line movement on Oregon State. Yeah, reverse line movement. Are you taking Oregon State on the money line? I sprinkled on the money line. I'll take them plus 12, but I sprinkled the money line a little bit. Yeah. Got it. They're plus 293 on the money line right now, which is pretty tasty. I may or may not have bet on that while you were talking. That sounds like a pretty tasty one, but yeah, you can still get that at 10 or 10.5. So I like that one.

People should listen to Jeff when it comes to back 12. This is your area of expertise. It is my area of expertise. And one more game here. Who would have thought 3-0 Rutgers, 3-0 Michigan? Yeah. I was leaning in one direction this week. I was leaning at Rutgers because the line ballooned up.

Was it 20 now? Yeah, it's 20, 20. was – Yeah, 20, 20 and a half. Yeah, it's pretty big. And 3-0 Rutgers, you're like, oh my God, Rutgers, you have to bet 3-0. Nope. No. The play for this is Michigan or it's not out yet. The Rutgers team total under.

And I'll explain why here. So they're 3-0, right? They played Temple, Syracuse, and Delaware, okay? They're a starting quarterback. Guess how many air yards he has per pass attempt? They're like last in the country or something, right? They're really low. 5.7, okay?

5.7. They're 120th in the country in big play rate. They're 107th in the country in percent of first downs coming on first or second down. So they're having to move the ball and get those on third down. Guess whose defense is one of the best in the country? Michigan. Michigan's defense is one of the best in the country.

They're fantastic in almost anything. There's nothing they're not good at, right? They rush the pass very well with Hutchinson. They're just an elite defense, right? They've allowed 14, 10, and 10. And some of those are blowouts, and their backups aren't even allowing points. Now, offensively, Michigan is a run-the-ball-first operation, right? They have Cade McNamara's only attempted 37 passes,

and McCarthy's attempted 12 passes. Like, they're not going to pass the ball. But what that does is it obviously wears down the opposing team when they can't score points, right? I would say that if Rutgers is a high-powered scoring attack, like maybe in Ohio State, you'd be like, you know, you can't do this. The philosophy doesn't work here. But to me, I don't think Rutgers scores maybe more than two touchdowns this game. And by the end of it, Michigan wears them down. Yeah. I think people are just afraid to bet on Michigan after all the heartbreak over the last few years,

but their first three games, they've outscored their opponents 141 to 34. This feels like a nice chance for them to make a bit of a statement and get some of those blue fans off Jim Harbaugh's back for another week. Yes, it does. All right, buddy, let's get to the NFL now.

week. Yes, it does. All right, buddy, let's get to the NFL now. Just about the only thing I won last week was my teaser of the three favorites that we hit in the college game. So maybe I need to maybe I'm doing a little body swap here. But this is our week, Jeff. Week two is always kind of a bloodbath for me. I just feel like I never get a hang of it. I see the overreactions from week one and just miss it's just always a blind spot for me that week but uh this is our time to bounce back let's get the oh and five stinker out of the way let's exercise our demons let's move on uh but let's definitely not move on with the thursday night game as any of our bets this week no no because it's uh houston is an eight and a half point underdog right now, as Terad Taylor is on IR.

Davis Mills is going to start. I mean, we would have to bet Houston here, and there's no way we're doing that, right? No, there's no way. I saw a weird stat today that was something like starting quarterbacks making their first start on a Thursday night or something like 4-0-1 gets a spread. Like something like, we're not touching this game.

Panthers defense, by the way, very good. If you're looking for a side in this game, the side is the Panthers. But guess what? We're only going to bet one road favorite, I think, this week. Last week, we got sucked into betting too many road favorites. We got sucked into doing things we haven't done in a while because we thought, obviously, we quote-unquote knew better. We got hooked one time.

Like, we're not doing that this week, right, Matt? So, we're staying away from most of them except one I think we're going to have to take just because the matchup is just in our favor. But the next game right here will be the first game we take. Yeah. Well, let's hear which side you want. It's Chicago at Cleveland. Cleveland is laying the seven. As we just got on the line today on Wednesday. It's been announced that Justin

Fields will be starting this game. Exciting times, Bears fans. You're going to get your moment here. How do you think this one's going to play out, Jeff? Yeah, I want the Bears here plus seven. And if you're listening to this podcast on Thursday morning, you might want to get the seven now because Fields was announced a starter and he will maybe move the line. I would have liked this either or if it was Dalton or Fields. I feel like right now they're about the same. But let's talk about the Browns really quick, okay? The Browns have their top two wide receivers most likely out. Jarvis Landry's out. Odell may or may not come back this week. So they have Peoples Jones and Anthony Schwartz,

who's the fastest Schwartz of all time. So, you know, good for Anthony Schwartz to get some shine here. But Baker's a little beat up, right? Their left tackle, Cedric Wills, got hurt against the Chiefs. He played only 70% of snaps the other day. And the Bears' defense, by the way, is top 10 in efficiency. Like, they're good, not good again, but they're better than, I think they showed against the Rams, but better against the Bengals last weekend.

And I think the Bears defense will do enough in this game. The real concern for me, if you're taking the Browns, so we're taking the Bears obviously, is the Browns defense, guys, is not very good right now. And I know the Bears passing attack is not what they do best, but right now the Browns defense is 25th in DVOA. They're 31st against the pass. They have not done a good job of stopping passing attacks.

It's just not what they do well as they're breaking in a new secondary. Miles Garrett is good, but Jason Peters, the Bears' left tackle, looks like he's healthy and ready to go. The Bears' offense line, by the way, who we had a concern. I'm not sure that the number's great so far, but they're fifth in pass protection, according to Pro Football Focus. Stefanski has won a lot of games, but their margin of victory is not a lot, Matt. It's not a lot.

He's one in five, his last six at home as well. I like that the Bears are getting a touch i mean the bears are getting a touchdown yeah uh cleveland one and five against the spread in their last six at home because they are sort of a darling public team uh jarvis landry is on ir for at least the next three weeks now that ir is like a totally different thing um you know justin fields came in mid-game last week you know he didn't he didn look great, but he didn't look terrible. Now he's going to have a few days to prepare. You mentioned Baker's injury.

We assume that he's okay, but without Landry, who is honestly sort of the focal point of that passing game, even though there's a lot of guys like Odell and the tight ends who get a lot of attention, this feels like it'll be a close game. I think Chicago is flying under the radar a bit. Honestly, I don't think this is going to move very much i think this is a pretty stable seven make sure you hit the bears this this uh if this somehow moves to seven and a half really jump on it it's possible it goes that direction uh because all the all the sharps are i've weighed in on cleveland so far so curious to see where this goes the next few days yeah again this is we're getting back to to what we do best which we gotta bet dogs right what was the the record like favorites or what now matt was that a real number you sent over there well

the first two weeks the favorites have just killed the underdogs it's just been ridiculous so you know this is you know it's gonna it's gonna trend back the other direction because vegas is gonna start to overcompensate and the public will start to give some money back. All right, let's get to the next game. We're going to break all the rules we've just talked about for the last – normally, a little background information. Matt and I text throughout the week about this stuff. Yes.

But we normally don't like give each other our picks until the show so we can kind of talk it out and have some fun with it. But I think because we stunk last week, we actually like planned out kind of where we're going so we're in the same direction so we don't come on here and blabber away for 45 minutes and then come out with five picks that we're not great about so when we talk like okay we're doing this game we sort of already know i think for the most part four of the five games possibly so let's go to the next game because this to me, it's one wager and that's it. Yeah.

Jeff opening the kimono there on the production process. I love that. Let's this one is Baltimore at the lions. This is a nine point Ravens favorite on the road at Detroit. Explain why we would even consider Baltimore here. And let's see if, if, if we agree after that. Well, the reason you consider Baltimore here and let's see if if we agree after that

well the reason you consider Baltimore here is because uh the Lions I call them a a good bad team last night right or Monday night right they're good enough to keep games a little bit close but in the end they're getting their ass kicked and I get that in week one they end up having a miracle cover but they were down 41-17 I mean I was kind of pissed that game away to be honest right like there wasn't anything I think the Lions did in that game that made you feel like, oh, you know, that the Lions are somehow good enough to cover these games. The Ravens are 11-4-1 versus the Lions their last 15 road games. And all they do is they dominate bad football teams right they dominate

bad football teams um lines do not cover well at home jeff okuda's out now yeah they're not very good i think there isn't you know there's a thought that maybe the ravens have a hangover from the chiefs game but matt i feel like baltimore comes in here with that weight off their shoulders after the chiefs game and just steamrolls the Lions. Yeah, I agree. I mean, this is the spot where Baltimore just always makes up ground. They kick the shit out of these bad teams. Last year, they were nine-point favorites in seven games. They covered in five of them and pushed another. I think this isn't necessarily my favorite one if we're this would probably be the fifth choice i would have uh fifth or sixth so i'm happy to put it in the mix um detroit i

can't really tell with detroit right i mean they seem to be this team that has two different halves in every game like the first half of monday they were they looked pretty competent and the second half against san francisco they were unstoppable. So it's sort of hard to get a sense of what this team really is. But obviously, a team like that tends to fade after a somewhat hot start. I could see this being one where Baltimore makes the

statement, gets out, and says, hey, we're still the Ravens and won this game by 25. I could see it. Yeah, and I think again, the Lions are a good bad team right like they're they're good enough to be able to um you know they're able to to stick close to long games but in the end they're just not going to be able to keep close in the last quarter of a game and look the lines the week one the week one game, they were up 41-17, Matt.

I mean, the Niners kind of pissed that away, I think, more than the Lions took that game from them, right? So, all right. So right now we'll put Baltimore in the maybe pile as we kind of break our rule for a little bit there. All right, let's go. Yep. All right. Arizona at Jacksonville is our next game.

Arizona, wow, this really got bet up uh arizona's laying seven and a half in jacksonville gosh is this too much now oh lord um which i'm not doing this i i can't yeah i can't i can't take uh i can't take the jaguars at home here i mean no that that's like our formula, right? But we can't blindly bet the Jags. But I will say Arizona is a team that everyone loves all of a sudden now, which does worry me. But I can't put my money on Jacksonville.

We almost did it last weekend, and they got their ass kicked. And I feel like that's going to happen again this weekend. This is really perplexing because when I started preparing for this game yesterday, I think this line was like four and a half or something. Like it's really been bet up. The legalized gambling everywhere has meant that these lines really move during the week in a way that i can't recall them doing uh the past few years i think jacksonville would obviously be the play here arizona could have a letdown spot but i was we were talking about maybe taking jacksonville on text the other day jacksonville's lost 17 straight games like at some point that starts to wear on a team

psychologically even though they have so many new people there i just i'm just not gonna i i can't do it man i i would have maybe taken the cardinals at at at under a touchdown but i i just i can't take jacksonville this is just a pass yeah i'm i'm with you here um let's pass and get to some better games yeah this is a great game uh the chargers are going to arrowhead the chiefs are laying six and a half which i find to be a little bit surprising of a low number to be honest but i'm curious what you think here oh man this this one terrifies me because the chiefs just ever played up to their ability, they would blow teams out. But they just don't seem to want to do that lately, right?

Defensively, they are an absolute wreck right now. Defensively, they're 31st in DVOA. I can feel very honest. Their EPA puts them at 30th. They don't do really anything well. They can't rush the passer at all. They're not getting any pressure on the quarterback. They don't do really anything well.

They can't rush the passer at all. They're not getting any pressure on the quarterback. Chris Jones, the experiment over it at defensive end doesn't seem to be working very well. They can't stop the run. However, they just played maybe the two best rushing teams in all of the league. So their pass rush and run defense might get better when they play the Chargers. Justin Herbert for the Chargers has not been that crisp. He's not been, I think, he's made some big plays, but hasn't been as crisp as we've seen him in the past.

New coach, on the road to Arrowhead. They're 20th in both offensive defense on DVOA. They're bad on special teams, which is no surprise considering where they've been the previous years. At seven, this feels much better. Six and a half, I'm okay because the public's all over Kansas City here as they think there'll be a bounce back week. What are you thinking? There's a reason that this line is where it is because the public, it's so hard to bet against Kansas City, but the reality is that they're just not covering.

So this is a hard one to bet because with the under a touchdown at Arrowhead, it's sort of an automatic Chiefs play. That's sort of been the gospel for a long time. But the problem is, Jeff, that the Chiefs just aren't covering games. They've covered two games since week eight of last season, including the playoffs. They're 0-2 last season including the playoffs they're owing to this season against the spread they're just not covering because everyone has the same mind which is like i can't bet against the chiefs like i don't want to be you know down a touchdown or needing to stop patrick holmes at the end of the game for me to win my bet it's just it's just not a fun place to

be um so i think for now we're still getting some value betting against Kansas city. The thing about teams that cover a lot of games usually is that they can run the ball. The chiefs can't run. Like they just have no Russian game at all. So it's either like they're exploding or they're kind of just moving sideways.

And I think that's a real concern for them moving forward, especially when the competition gets better and the season gets longer. And you know, if Tyree killed, God forbid, pulls a hamstring, they're going to have to be able to do something else in their offense. So that's a long way of saying I think the Chargers are the play here, but it's no fun. I mean, I don't know. I think there's an advantage the Chargers have, too,

on their offensive line where Orlando Brown just hasn't been what was expected at left tackle. And the Chargers, we know they can rush the passer. And the Chargers offensive line has not been terribly good, but the Chiefs have no one to rush the passer. So what does it matter? Frank Clark's not going to do it, right? the passer so like what does it matter if you know who's who's doing frank clark's not going to do it right um and so i just i i feel like everything tells us we should bet the chargers which probably means we should even if we don't necessarily like doing it that feels like what we

have to do in this spot because look we last week we did oh we you know we did the ones that felt good for us i feel like now we need to do the things that actually make more sense. And this taking the Chargers here is the sharp play. It's not going to be fun, as you mentioned, to bet against the Chiefs. But this does feel like the right answer. Yeah, I think people are so afraid to look like idiots and say like, what? You bet against Patrick Mahomes?

Like, what's wrong with you? Like, if you bet against Patrick Mahomes, you're going to have won, I think, you know, nine out of the last 11 against the spread so i i think that for now we're probably getting a little bit of value uh fading the chiefs against spread only i'm with you i'm with you i don't like it but it's it's how you it's how you win money it's the right play yeah all right so there's one uh this game is a total mystery to me je Jeff. The Saints are going to the Patriots. The Patriots are laying the three. I have no feel here. Do you? I mean, the play is the under in this game, right? If you are betting this game. It's like 40 points, 41 and a half. Belichick is 13 and six on the under since the late of 2019. Sean Payne's actually under his last five since the end of last season.

We know that New England's goal is to not put Mac Jones in harm's way, right? They're going to kind of slowly dig and dunk, go down the field, play smart football. And we get Jameis Winston against Bill Belichick, which we saw last weekend, Jameis Winston was kind of old Jameis Winston. But the Patriots aren't good enough

to lay money on Mac Jones here either. So I think this is a stay-at-way game for sure. Yeah, I apologize to the listeners as I recommended the Jets last week. I get it. I don't think that was the wrong – I think we were on the spot. I mean, they turned about four freaking times. The Jets' defense wasn't that bad. No, it wasn't.

The game got out of hand, but the two teams I don't think were that far apart. I think it was a bad situation for Zach Wilson. And like, you know, the conventional wisdom certainly prevailed. I was actually leaning towards New Orleans here, but Davenport, Quan Alexander on IR, Marshawn Lattimore probably missing this one. This is the third game in a row away from home for new orleans which could just be like let's get out of here let's go home let's play our first home game in week four like and get our stuff together so i i'm a little bit wary of betting the saints even though i think the patriots just aren't as good as people think

i think the patriots are really going to start to struggle pretty soon they have no offense i'm uh i'm i did i'm gonna agree they just don't mean they're relying on the defense right now yeah and it's like great they played the jets and they played tua and lost like let's let's see them play a real offense um and before we start to anoint mac jones as rookie of the year but I don't think it's this week um another okay moving on to an AFC South game god but the the Colts are are at Tennessee uh Tennessee is a five and a half point favorite as of the time we're recording this uh we don't know what the deal is with Carson Wentz and both of his sprained ankles what is that um so I don't know. What do you think? So I was really strong on Tennessee here, but I kind of got taken away from that

just because Tennessee's defense is not very good. And Jacob Eason, if starting for the Colts, I know he was good against covering the spread in college, but that was mostly at Georgia. And he played a really good defense in Washington. He is awful. and i'm not playing money on on eason in this game um but tennessee again this is like uh the five and a half so the vegas zone right like it's not a good not a great number um if eason does if if eason

does end up playing i mean times of the play here but i i don't feel comfortable with this one i really don't no i don't either and uh indy kind of owns tennessee right we always talk about these divisional matchups that that have these weird splits they've won 14 of the last 19 against tennessee tennessee generally does better against the spread on the road than at home because they're better as dogs i just don't really see a good position here for us um even though we could look back and be like why the hell didn't we take tennessee against a backup laying less than a touchdown that that that could come back to bite us yeah i mean again we just don't know if and there's also something to the idea that that you know the the colts need

this game right they go oh and three they're not making the playoffs likets need this game. They go 0-3. They're not making the playoffs. They need this game really badly. Yeah, they do. This is Indy season, so that makes me a little concerned. Okay, that's a pass. Thank God. I don't want to pay attention to that game. Do you?

No, I do not. This is a game I'll be paying attention to, like it or not. It's my Washington football team, beloved Washington football team, eight-point dogs in Orchard Park against the Bills. What do you think? Oh, man. I have no feel for this game.

You know, I just – Tyler Heineke on the road. I can't – I just – I can't do it. I just – sorry, Matt. i know you like washington i think in this spot but it just it's not it's not a great number for washington it's too much for buffalo because what you know what if washington's defensive line decides this is the game they're going to play better you know like i just um and josh allen by the way has not looked the same as he has last year which is no surprise i'm just off. Yeah, you can't bet this game. I like this one in a tease maybe for Washington if you get them up to like 14. Buffalo's at their high watermark. They just blew out a team that they always blew out.

And I think you could make the argument it's like Washington gets the extra rest. They're the team that probably profiles most like the Steelers in the whole league in terms of the way their team is composed. But Buffalo is a really good team. And, you know, betting Taylor Heineke, this is his first start on the road ever. So very concerning there. I think this is a pass. I think it is a pass as well. Let's get to the next game where I don't think we're wager on it, but it's got hilarious potential though. I am going to be dialed into the Falcons-Giants game. The Giants are three-point favorites. This is just like a hilarious mess.

I don't know what to expect in this game. I don't think we're going to be betting it, but I am curious what you would bet if you had to. I would bet the Falcons plus three, but I'm not betting on the Falcons anymore, right? What a dumpster. Dude, they were What a dumpster. Dude, they were in the fourth quarter.

They were down by three in the fourth quarter. It was 28 to 25, I believe the score. And they ended up losing like 49-25. It was like they just got blown out in the end. The Giants are really, really bad at covering games at home. They're 4-10-1 in their last 16 games at home which uh is is a terrible number to you know to obviously as a as a home anything home or uh home dog or favorite so to me again that's just i'm just staying away from this i'll tell you what though if the giants lose this game oh boy like that's

they're gonna be some some calls for uh for for jobs here uh yeah yeah so i i just i just how about this daniel jones is is four and ten gets spread at home but ten and four on the road i mean weird as a former giant like what is that like is there is that just a fluke or is there something to do with metlife or i mean met life is is generally pretty sterile like the home field atmosphere is not great there yeah i don't think that i don't think that makes this i don't know why that would explain why you can't cover the spread at home unless their lines are inflated yeah well they get a couple extra days rest i like i would everyone's going in on atlanta here which is scary um this is a layoff for us because, yeah, I got I'll be watching anyway.

It'll be quite enjoyable to see the two coaches try to not shoot themselves in the foot. Oh, it'd be fantastic. It'll be great. All right. The Jets are going to Denver. Everybody's favorite team, at least favorite team this week are going head to head, which should color you on my opinion of this one. least favorite team this week are going head to head which should color you on my opinion of this one uh the broncos are 10 and a half point favorites at home despite the over under being 41 what do you think

they're basically saying that they expect the the broncos to win 31 to 10 or or something like that right is that is that what they're saying something like 25 to 25 to 14 something like that, right? Is that what they're saying? Something like that. 25 to 14? Something like that. Look, the Broncos offense, guys, is actually really good. Teddy Bridgewater does exactly what he's told, right? He just – the ball's supposed to go here. The ball's supposed to go here.

The reason, in my opinion, you take the Broncos in this game is the Jets' offense is going to have a really tough go of this, right? They played the Panthers' defense, which is good, the Patriots' defense, and now they're playing the Broncos. Three straight murder rows of defense. We saw Zach Wilson throw four interceptions last week. Corey Davis hasn't been very good. Makai Beckton, their left tackle's out. And Teddy, two gloves is great at covering. Now, to your point, Matt, he's never a double-digit favorite either, right?

So we haven't seen this before in him. But I would be fine laying it with Denver, but I just don't feel great about it. And so I think it's a stay away. It's Denver or nothing me let me just say some things just keep an open mind for one second okay so uh this was at 11 it's moved to 10 and a half which means uh you know they've gotten enough that you would think that would mean that people have been betting the jets no one is betting the. So this is a little bit of reverse line movement, I would say. I mean, for a half point, it's sort of hard to say.

One thing that I would mention is Denver has beaten Jacksonville and the Giants in their first two games. So this means they're starting the season with, what, three of the worst five teams in the league back to back. That's very fortunate. This is their home opener. So of course the fans are going to be charged up, but I do want to mention this. Next week, the Broncos host Baltimore. Then they play Pittsburgh.

Then they play Vegas. Then they play Cleveland. This is not a must win, set a tone, win by 20. This is a let's get through it and get to the next stretch of games kind of game i think you mentioned bridgewater and his splits against the spread he's amazing against the spread he's why he's 38 and 14 against spread all time as a starter but he's 23 and 3 on the road and 15 and 11 at home which usually means he's good at keeping games close. He's not great at pulling away and dominating.

Everyone's out on the Jets. This, I think, is the time. The fact that Vegas didn't move the line at all, despite everyone wanting to fade the Jets, I think means that they know something here. I think the Jets are not a bad play. I think there's a better week to fade the Broncos than the Jets team. I think your point is well taken,

but I don't think it is now that we fade them. Yeah. I think, what do you think? I mean, not to be cheesy, but like former player, is the look ahead game a real thing? In the NFL, no. I think in college it is, yeah. Okay.

Not in the NFL. I think that's a pretty strong argument if you believe in that you have a young you have an older team too the veteran quarterback like there's no looking ahead there's no time to look ahead i do think i do think that that that's in college that that certainly does happen okay well we'll see about i mean i don't really want to bet the jets but that's the reason mainly that i'm just not comfortable betting the broncos um okay well moving on that's an ugly one here's another ugly one probably uh the two or less uh miami dolphins are going to vegas it's another kind of fishy line because vegas is everyone's favorite and the dolphins are everyone's off them that the raiders are only three and the Dolphins are everyone's off of them.

The Raiders are only three and a half point favorites. Well, it's actually four now after that news. So we're going to take four as it sits everywhere at four. It's not just one book. It looks like they're all at four right now. So a couple of things to consider now here. now uh here gruden 40 against the spread after a straight up win and 31 against the spread on a multi-game uh after a multi-game straight up you know win streak so basically in this spot he's 31 against the spread depends where you look but the dolphins defense is still pretty good and

remember last weekend they did not lose because their defense sucked. Their offense couldn't do anything. They got freaking Tua killed. Enter Jacoby Brissett, who is, I would say, not physically more gifted than Tua, but just a better quarterback, I think. He'll get the ball quickly. He'll get the ball quickly. He will be in rhythm in the offense. Their offensive line, though, is so bad. And the Raiders' pass rush this year has

been fantastic um but the raiders i think are too they're just this line is interesting right a standard home favorite is three points for how bad miami looked last weekend they're getting one extra point for that it's four like i think they're telling you this game's going to be closer than people think. Yeah. This is a total Vegas signal game here. Because the fact is, you would think a team that just lost by 35 and a team that's one of the hottest teams in the league would be getting a much bigger line here. Brissette, as a full-time starter in 2019 was 500 against the spread. He's about average.

I think the other key indicator, shout out to our friend Chris Rabon at Action Network here. Gruden is 40% against the spread after a straight-up win. 31% against the spread after a multi-game straight-up win streak. I took that stat from Rabon too. Yeah, shout out to our boy Rabon. Um, I took that stat from Raybon too. Yeah. Well, shout out to our boy Raybon. Um, I would say too, like you mentioned to, uh, he too is ranked 31st in PFF grades this year. He's not been good. So this, while it might not be an upgrade, it can't be worse than a lateral move. Um, he's behind Zach Wilson in terms of, in terms of the grades. Uh, Rogers, by the way, is 30th kind of funny. Um, the dolphins have a hard time hard time with buffalo this is a sort of must win must show up spot for them at least um so i think we could be on the right side of the hook here if we take miami uh well now we're getting plus four yeah there's also something that's interesting to consider here um the raiders aren't really good

at rushing the football and when you play a really good defense like miami they'll just sit back in coverage and and kind of force them to rush the football which is not which is not um you know it's it's it just gives me a little bit of hope the dolphins defense can do a little work in this game put it like that yeah it's not a fun one but this is these are the games you have to grind out as better they're also also they're also league's worst tackling team huh that feels like that's uh that that's something that can change uh over time by the way uh our producer hank mentioned uh josh jacobs doubtful in this one could be an impact peyton barber was i think at 32 yards on 13 last week so yeah he's not uh yeah not it's not looking great so i like the contrarian play there of the dolphins uh this is probably the game of the week uh tampa bay at the rams this line has moved all

over the place and opened with the rams as a slight favorite now it's shifted to one or two for the bucks as the time we're recording this uh what do you think so there's some covet issues with tampa bay right antonio brown's out with covet and we don't know what that means for contract tracing and we don't know what that means kind of the rest of the team right now i have that i have that accurate right that's where we are right now yeah brown is out uh i'll look at the other stuff while you're talking yeah so i i'm not sure that we know the rest of what their team looks like as far as wide receiver room. And that does kind of worry me, right, when you look at Tampa here.

You know, I don't have a great feel for this game other than whoever is the running back for the Rams just take their team, you know, the rushing total under this week because we know that the defense is really good in Tampa. I think Tom Brady's on a mission to go 17-0. I really do think that. And Tampa's offensive line can handle the Rams' pass rush.

They have just more weapons in general due to the Patriots. I would lean the Bucs. I'd lean the Bucs here. I don't feel great about it. I don't have a great feel for this game because I think that number is a good number. And really, I think in the past we would bet the Rams, but I just, I can't bet against Tom Brady. This game opened, by the way, at plus one. Tom Brady's 25 and nine.

He gets a spread as an underdog. That's obviously, he's a favorite now. The number's thrown out. But I just, I just think, I just, I can't do, I can't bet against Tom Brady in this spot. I get it. I was thinking about making the case for the Rams, but I was thinking, too, when's the last time Matt Stafford played a game as big as this?

I mean, it's probably been since Calvin Johnson was there. And Calvin Johnson is retired and in the Hall of Fame now. He has not played a game like this in quite a while. And the B the bucks have won nine straight they put up 30 plus in each i think the rams especially the numbers i actually am seeing some two and a halves in some places plus two and a half i think i might like that you mentioned the covet thing with the bucks but they're 100 vaccinated they're one of the teams that went out with that even before the season started so i could see them uh potentially you know withstanding this outbreak a little bit

better than some other teams might generally i would say take the points in a game where it's pretty even and there's a home underdog uh with a team that's as good as the rams but i'm a little bit afraid against going against tom brady um yeah i'm, I just don't feel great about this. I think there's better numbers on the board here than betting maybe the two best teams in the NFL right now. Yeah. Well, we've got a few on the board. We've got three games left here.

I know this is going to be one of them, and I'm not happy about it, but we're going to do it anyway. It's Seattle at Minnesota. Minnesota's 0-2. They're two-point home dogs, which is the spot where you almost always want to take the home team, despite what we just said about the Rams above. What's your take? Yep, it's the Vikings.

0-2. Need to win in a desperate way. Home opener. Home opener, Home opener. And they just have got to get this W. They're 20th in DVOA. Seattle's 7th. Seattle's playing well,

but they just do Seattle stuff, right? Like last weekend, they were 30-16 and lost the Titans. You just have to kind of bite the bullet and just take the Vikings in this spot. It's not a great spot to be a Vikings backer in this situation, but that's I think this is just as we get back to what

we do best, this is what we do best. You have to take this. Yeah, this is tough. Seattle's won seven straight against Minnesota, but they're not great on the road. They're one and six against the spread in their last seven on the road. This is a great thought exercise because if – what's the kicker's name? Joseph.

If he makes that kick last week, are the Vikings favored? Like probably. Probably, yeah. So I think this is just everyone's off the Vikings. But the pros are all over them. There's a 22 percentage point discrepancy between the bets and the money here. I think this is a definite Minnesota pick. And you just hold your nose, man.

It's no fun going against Mahomes and Wilson in the same week, but it's how you win money. I think it is too. All right. Well, so we have one home favorite in there. One home dog. We have no favorites yet so far. We're taking points in our four games that we have it here.

Maybe this will be the first game of Sunday Night Football where we take some points. Oh, that's interesting. It's going to be Green Bay at San Francisco. San Francisco's laying three and a half. Two mystifying teams, man. I'm really curious where you net out here. Yeah, that's why we're staying the freak away from this game. Because I have no idea what to expect from these teams, right?

Green Bay has an up and down so far this season, has not been, has looked good, has not looked good. They're still talking about the offseason. You know, they're still fixated on that. They have not played well in these big moments, right, against good football teams. But what are the Niners on offense? Jimmy Garoppolo is just okay, right? Like they're not as good as they were even when the Packers played them last year

or the year before that, the year before that. Like they're just not as good. I just – three and a half. We're not taking the hook again. We're not doing it, man. Like we did this last week. We're staying away from three and a half. We're just – we're not – if this was two and a half, maybe look at the Niners.

If this was four or maybe look at the niners this was four or maybe look at the packers but we told ourselves me and you privately so we're not taking three and a halves anymore right and this is this is that hook is there for a reason right the vegas is telling you that three and a half number is is fishy take the packers in this spot but i don't trust the packers here, so I'm laying off this one. Let me see if I can talk this. Let's see what you think of this. Okay. Green Bay, the line didn't move after Green Bay beat Detroit,

which I find to be a little bit strange. I think that means that, I don't know what that means. On the San Francisco side, these two teams seem to play each other at all these critical moments and i feel like we're always on the wrong side of it the way that san francisco usually wins this game is they get out in front with a kind of early lead and they just run all over green bay they just run through green bay and and green bay just they look up and they're down by 17. And for some reason, Rogers isn't great in those spots. How is San Francisco going to run the ball with Trenton Cannon and potentially like an injured Mitchell? Like, I just don't see them at their full strength here.

And Jimmy Garoppolo has not been good, as you mentioned. I kind of feel like Green Bay could keep this one pretty close. It's sort of a... I kind of feel like San Francisco is getting a little bit of a pass for not looking super sharp in either of their games last week. They really should have lost to Philadelphia, I think. And, you know, the Lions game was...

You know, almost was a complete disaster. I kind of feel like Green Bay isn't a bad play here with this number um is it better play than any numbers other numbers we have well i don't i'm not exactly sure but i do think that i do think they could be considered because you know i know that it's like the most joe thing to say. It's like, well, you're getting Rodgers plus three and a half. You just do it. I know they haven't looked great, but it's possible we're calculating a little bit too much of week one for Green Bay into this. Yes, I just don't.

Yeah, I don't. I mean, we'll put them in the maybe pile because we've got to figure out where our last pick is going to be in a second. Yeah. But I – the Packers have trouble rushing the passer. They're just – I don't know how they're going to really affect the Niners defense in this spot. I mean the Niners offense in this spot. And if you can't really do that, you're not going to have a chance against them. Yeah.

All right. Well, let's – well, we've got our Monday night game. Let's get to that first. So Philadelphia is going to Dallas. Philly is getting four points against the Cowboys. Do you have a feel here? I think Philly plus four

is probably the right play. But they lost Brandon Graham and Brandon Brooks, right? They're defensive and right guard here. Jalen Hurts was shut down last weekend against the Niners. I think to me it's a lot of smoke and mirrors of their offense, but the Cowboys' defense, not necessarily good. Their offense looked better, obviously, against Los Angeles.

But four points is a decent amount for teams that are probably pretty close. You're basically getting those four points because just Dak Prescott's better. I would bet Philly here plus four. I think I would, too. But I honestly, like this is going to go to four and a half or five, just given the injuries. And Dallas is a super public team and everyone's going to be out on the Eagles. Dallas is lucky to be one and one. That coaching end of the game last week was a total debacle by Mike McCarthy.

Zerline bailed them out with a ridiculous field goal um i just want to say on our group thread they're on red zone it was it was uh dallas and the vikings were kicking back to back on red zone and i texted everybody jeff you were on it i was like dallas makes it vikings miss it and it's exactly what happened it's like so like typical of both of those teams uh that dallas gets lucky here uh they dallas stinks as a favorite they're one and eight against the spread in their last nine as a favorite everyone's gonna be hammering dallas the line's gonna move if you're listening to this thursday maybe wait till like monday everyone's gonna be chasing and bet on d against the Eagles.

So I think that the Eagles are the play here, but I would rather take the Packers than the Eagles. Yes, I would trust them more. So here's what we got right now. We got Bears plus seven, Chargers plus six and a half, Dolphins plus four, Minnesota plus two. Those are four we agreed upon. The other ones, the question marks were Baltimore minus nine, Green Bay plus three and a half, and I mean, Denver, whatever. I don't think that's a decent play.

I mean, I think they're going to win, but I can't do that. To me, Baltimore is the better wager out of that and Green Bay. I mean, Baltimore's playing a bad Lions team. No? We one of lane nine on the road as a favorite? Like, ugh. Like, I get it, but. I mean, what else?

Okay, so how do the Lions keep this game close? And what do they do to keep this game? Like, from a football perspective, what do they do to keep this game close? I mean, they backdoor cover, probably. That's probably it. I mean, it's sort of, you know, it's something. I don't know. The Lions are 29th in rushing DVOA defense and 32nd against the pass.

So we're basically, I think, deciding between the Eagles plus four, the Packers plus three and a half, and the Ravens minus nine. Is that right? Yes. I like all of them, to be honest. I think situationally betting a team is nine-point road favorites is a mistake. But you know what? Screw it, man. Mark Jackson is great in this spot.

I feel like in this specific spot, this is the way to be. Okay, here's a question. When you're watching these games, would you rather root for the Baltimore team against the Lions, Would you rather root for the Baltimore team against the Lions, the Packers against the Niners, or Philly against the Cowboys? Like, as someone watching the game, what would you rather be doing? Yeah, let's go with the Ravens. Let's see them boat race the Lions. We've done enough throat clearing about our situational betting

and how screwed we were after last week this one just let's just put our ourselves on the line here and we have the Bears plus seven Chargers plus six and a half

Dolphins plus four Minnesota plus two Baltimore minus nine it's an ugly board we're going against Mahomes Dolphins plus four Minnesota plus two Baltimore minus nine it's an ugly board we're going against Mahomes and Wilson we're laying nine points on the road we're betting Justin Fields in his first start and we're going against the hottest team in

the NFL and the Raiders but I think that's how you have to do it that is how you have to do it that's the thing about this right is like you you just and i think all outside of outside of baltimore we're going against the public for all these wagers yep because the public is all over green bay by the way um interesting and so if you look at the percentages that 72 of tickets are on green Bay with 83% of the money. So it's a huge public play.

Miami is obviously going to be a sharp play. Chargers, we're going against the public here except the Baltimore wager. So I feel I can live with that. I can live with the public part of this, like fading the public part. Yeah. All right, man. I'm with you. And if we go 0-5 again, we go 0-5 again. Like what are you going to. Yeah. All right, man, I'm with you. And if we go in five again,

we go five again. Like what are you going to, what are we afraid of? Let's go. Yeah. So I appreciate you guys tuning in. I mean, look, if you want to fade us,

fade us. I tell you what I, I've, we're not this bad. I mean, we obviously are what our record is, which is what I think Bill Parcells has said many times, but we're really not this bad.

So I hope that you ride with us here. Please rate, review, subscribe to the podcast. If you've been listening this long, you obviously like us, and I hope you enjoy the weekend. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network, and we'll talk to you guys on Monday with our college football show. Good luck this weekend. Enjoy it. Enjoy the games. We'll talk to you guys on Monday with our college football show. Good luck this weekend. Enjoy it.

Enjoy the games. We'll talk to you guys Monday.