Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 5 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Episode Date: September 30, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back with their weekly betting tips, starting with four picks from a loaded CFB week 5 slate: Arkansas vs. Georgia, Alabama vs. Ole Miss, Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame, and Oregon vs. Stanford. Expect Nick Saban to continue to dominate his former assistants, and Cincy to show up for their super bowl… at least in the first half.For the NFL picks (9:10) Geoff and Matt go through every game of the upcoming weekend and choose a few games that they’re high on (Rams vs. Cardinals, Ravens vs. Broncos) plus a few they’re staying away from (Texans vs. Bills, Giants vs. Saints). They discuss how the Lions are due for a win, why Russell Wilson owns the Niners, and what to expect in Brady’s return to Foxborough.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday september 30th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you we're powered by the varsity podcast network it is our weekend waiver uh wagering leave it in all right leave this in uh leave it in i don't care leave it in whatever you want to do i don't care guys uh it is just worth the smarter than you i'm jeff i guess can't jeff schwartz can't speak to you guys power of the podcast network and we're at the weekend wagering preview where we go over custom college football and then also of course all the nfl games uh we went three and two last week matt we've sandwiched that with uh oh and five so we've been three and two oh and five three and two and what a wild week it was in the NFL.

But let's get to college first. We've got a bunch of big games happening in the South. Let's go to Arkansas and Georgia. A top-10 matchup that no one expected to happen. As of taping right now, Arkansas is getting 18.5 points, guys. They're 4-0 off a win against A&M. I think this kind of tells you that this game is a big mismatch,

even though Arkansas is kind of the Cinderella right now, right? They're going on the road to play an extremely good defense. Georgia's their first true road game of the year. Remember, they beat Texas at home. They went to A&M last weekend and played, I believe, that game was in Dallas. A couple of things that worry me about Arkansas,

and I'll get to my prediction at the end. You know, they're led by their dual-threat quarterback, KJ Jefferson. Almost has 1,100 yards this year. A little beat up, though. He left last game. Coach Sam Pimmons said he'll be back. His completion percentage, though, Matt, is low. It's like 57%, 58%, which is pretty low for a top-10 team.

758%, which is pretty low for a top 10 team. They're 97th in passing efficiency, and they're 112th in the country on third down. Georgia's defense is legit. It's by far the best defense they will face all season. They're the best defensive line in the country. They're one of the best third down teams in the country. They're one of the best rushing defense in the country. Number one passing defense in the country.

This is going to be a really tough contest, in my opinion, for Arkansas to move the ball consistently throughout the game. On the flip side, Arkansas' defense, led by Barry Odom, is very multiple.

They're very aggressive. And they have actually done a pretty good job. They're really good on third down with the top teams in third down. And they're able to bring a bunch of pressure without blitzing.

They're not a high blitz team. But this is different than playing Texas and Texas A&M. This is a real offense in Georgia. My concern, though, with Georgia's offense is they're not really a push-the-ball-downfield offense. So, to me, this game screams under. Under 48 and a half. It's two teams that want to run the football. They want to control the tempo of the game.

They want to play good special teams. Don't take a lot of chances. So, I go under here, and I'll actually lean Georgia. I'd lay the wood here. Fair enough, Jeff. You want to keep moving us on? Yes, let's keep moving on. Yes, we have a busy college weekend.

So we have Ole Miss, Alabama. Ole Miss is 14.5 point underdog. Bama's favored by the 14.5. God, if this gets to 14, guys, I got to think. Hammer. You take Bama's favored by the 14.5. God, if this gets to 14, guys, I got to think. Hammer. You take Bama here. Here's my, so here's a couple things on this game. We know that Mississippi State, excuse me, Ole Miss can score.

Like, that is what they have done for a very long time. But guess what? They don't play very well against Alabama. They've allowed the last four games, 66, 62, 59, and 63 points to Bama. Last year, the game was close. 62, 59, and 63 points to Bama. Last year, the game was close. It was 45-45, I believe, before Bama took it out to win 63-45.

I actually like in this game, out of all things, the team total for Alabama. I think it's 48.5. To bet the over on that is really wild, but I'll tell you why I like it. Alabama's only been slowed down this year by Florida's defense in the second half of that game. And that was because they out-physicaled them. That's not what Ole Miss does. They're not going to out-physical Alabama at the line of scrimmage. And Nick Saban, knowing that Lane Kiffin can score a bunch of points,

I think they'll keep their foot down on the gas and just score and score and score as much as they can to make sure that Matt Corral and the Ole Miss offense is not able to keep up and keep up pace. Here's the thing. Everyone's looking at Alabama this weekend saying, oh, they're going to be upset. They plan to play down to Florida. I think Florida played really well in that game.

Nick Saban against his assistant coaches, Matt, 23-0, and the average score is 43-17. So if you're going to take Ole Miss here with the points, I get that if you want to. But I know for sure in this game, Alabama will score a ton of points. I'll take the Alabama team total. I know it's a lot of points. Is that too many points over 48.5?

That's the number I've seen. Well, the points with the total for the game being 80, that is an insane number. One thing, they tend to score, Alabama tends to score pretty early. They're outscoring their opponents 66-3 in the first quarter this year. They're minus eight in the first half. That's kind of an interesting way to play this. Interesting.

I didn't think about that. That's a good, and this game is at Alabama. Betting a first quarter in college football seems a little bit tricky. Yeah, a little roulette-y. But that's a good – yeah, that's a very good option. Okay, let's get to our next game here. Cincinnati at Notre Dame. This is Cincinnati's Super Bowl, right? They win this game.

They are officially in the talk for making a playoff. Not like last year. They were sort of – they're officially officially especially with Clemson losing, Ohio State not being as good, Oklahoma not being as good. This year, Oklahoma and Ohio State are going to lose a conference game. And Cincinnati wins this game, they're firmly in the conversation. So, they're

off a bye as well. So, they're going to have, they're going to be rested. They're going to have ways to attack Notre Dame's defense and Notre Dame's offense. To me, Matt, this screams Cincinnati first half money line. They're favored by just under a field goal. I would take the first half in this game because Notre Dame's talent and playmakers

can overcome Cincinnati's kind of new scheme, right? Like whatever they bring from their bye week. Because in the end, Notre Dame has more talented players. No, Notre Dame offensively, kind of a wreck. They scored three times against Wisconsin. Defensive special teams, their left side of their offensive line

is having problems. And they're one of the worst rushing teams in the country. It's pretty amazing that Notre Dame is one of the worst. So to me, this screams like emotional

start for Cincinnati knowing how big the game is. Come out fast. Win the first half. And I don't feel great about sustaining that in the second half. I've been this spot before

as a team who thinks the game is their Super Bowl. Notre Dame doesn't believe that, right? They know Cincinnati is good, but they're not going to think to themselves. So if they get down early, it's not going to be the end of them. I'll tell you what, if the Bearcats get down early, I would hammer some live money on Notre Dame here. Because I think if they get down early, this game is a blowout. So give me Cincinnati first half here. You're going gonna watch the bearcats and it's interesting i mean this one really flipped uh according to action network this one actually

passed through the zero um and so now cincinnati being the road favorite that's that's that's a pretty interesting one big chance for cincinnati uh the total on this one by the way just keeps plummeting we were just at a game with an 80 point total on this one, by the way, just keeps plummeting. We just did a game with an 80-point total. And this one's – we have this in our rundown around 51. It's already down into the 40s where I'm looking. So, interesting the way the Sharps are kind of weighing in here. I'll be pretty locked in on Maryland-Iowa.

So, you know, we'll see. We'll see if I can multitask. I know. Big game for the Terps. Lastly, guys, i don't tell you to bet on organ very often but organs at stanford this weekend and i would take the ducks here minus the eight um i know it's a road uh a conference road favorite which is not always great but here's why i would take organ um organ tends to bullshit a lot against bad teams all right they

did against stony brook and against a against Arizona. But they trust and respect Stanford. And Mario Cristobal's team covers a lot more games on the road than at home. Matt, how about this? Mario's been there since 2018. They've lost one home game since then. Right? 2018, 2019, last year, which was a shortened season, and now this year, obviously.

They lost one home game. That was against Stanford in 2018 when they had this. He fumbled the ball in third and They lost one home game. That was against Stanford in 2018 when they had this. He fumbled the ball in third and two and lost the game. They've only covered five home games. Five. Five home games. They just play a lot better on the road.

Stanford, how about this? Stanford's offensively one of the worst teams in the country. They're 112th in success rate, but they're second in explosiveness. They have a lot of explosive plays. They cannot score if you force them to just run their offense. And Oregon's defense is a bend but don't break. They allow a lot of yards but not a lot of points. On the flip side, Stanford's defense just can't stop the run. And I think Oregon's offense will come to play in this game.

I know my Ducks pretty well, and they'll be up for this game, which is very important, which sounds terrible, say, for the third team in the country. So give me the Ducks pretty well, and they'll be up for this game, which is very important, which sounds terrible, say, for the third team in the country. So give me the Ducks here, minus eight. If you want to go in the Pac-12 too, USC minus seven, I believe, at Colorado. I know USC sucks, but Colorado has scored 27 points in the last three weeks. They can't score. So I would consider going USC there.

All right, Matt, enough of me blabbing about college. you're going usc there all right matt enough of me blabbing about college three and two last week we're clawing our way back and we're gonna start with thursday night football thursday night football the first time the bangles have been favored by more than a touchdown i think since 2017 um pretty historic the cincinnati bangles are seven and a half point home favorite against trevor lawrence and the hapless jaguars wow uh i mean we're not touching this obviously but are you surprised at this at this line no jacksonville is just pretty freaking shitty um i mean look they lost arizona last week 31 19 and seven of those points were on that kick

six right to end the first half like they're just a bad football team. They're 0-3 against the spread so far this year. I mean, most bad teams cover the spread, right, because, you know, like, they just do enough to cover. But they're not doing that here. And the Bengals have to be feeling good. You know, big win against the Steelers. Seven and a half, though, is a terrible number.

And if you are betting on the Bengals here in this spot, God bless you. We see weird Thursday night football games all the time. i'm i'm off this game i'm not on this game i wouldn't i wouldn't touch nothing maybe find yourself a prop here and there like trevor lawrence under passing yards feels feels good in any spot yeah same uh the underdogs are crushing it this year um much to our chagrin usually um so you would think, Jeff, you actually sent me a text with the number in there. If one of us pulls it up while I'm blabbering here. I mean, I think that the play would probably be Jacksonville if you were playing this. But man, I think they are absolutely atrocious and will not bet on them until we're sure

Urban Meyer can prepare for an NFL game. Yeah, there are a lot of there are a lot of weird numbers so far right dogs right now are 13 18 63 against the spread um best winning percentage through three weeks this season since 20 since 2003 so you know eventually that those things have to kind of have to kind of change at some point right I mean it just it's not gonna last all season um but i'm not betting on the favorite in this game i think there's almost no chance the bangles lose this but you know so maybe they're an item in a in a parlay or a tease or something but uh certainly a pass for us there's

also one more thing here too we should add this season underdogs of three points or less on this doesn't apply to this game or 11 and five against the spread just thought i thought after as we continue to go interesting maybe we'll see if that if that comes up again later anywhere um that was a nice little foreshadowing moment next up is my speaking of hapless hapless washington football team uh plus or sorry there are two point favorites in atlanta there are four teams jeff that have not covered this season do you want to guess who they are well washington jacksonville uh-huh the jets well it depends on what the number closed on that week one game um and the chiefs correct well done interesting it pretty motley

crew there one of those teams is not like the other um so obviously we're not taking atlanta here right no i mean i think the play would be the washington football team right um i'm not saying we do it but i mean atlanta's 32nd to dvoa so 32nd offense and 30th on defense like if washington were to get themselves kind of get back on track it would be in atlanta this weekend right they're favored by one or two what we say it's two here um let me just make sure because last we'll get some number issues one and a half is what i see right now okay consensus so one they're favored by one and a half i mean are really i i atlanta looked bad last weekend i'm just saying like i think this is one where we'll maybe come back to it at some point but if we're missing a game i mean are we saying washington's gonna lose

in atlanta this weekend this feels like a game where one of them gets right whether it's the washington defense or the atlanta offense um it seems as though both can't be this this shitty for much longer um i don't know i mean i just i just don't know about laying points with washington right now as bad as let's stay away yeah i'm i'm happy to i'm happy to like put it in the mix just in case because there are a lot of these that are so obviously passes that it's going to be hard to uh to populate the five here including this one uh houston is plus 16 and a half at buffalo yeah we'll just we'll move it along this is just a waste of our time if you had to though buffalo

right yeah i mean totally look if you want to lay 16 and a half anybody i mean you can't this number is like unteasable it's 10 and a half on a tease. Like, I mean, if anything, you tease the Texans up to 21 and a half, right? Or 22 and a half. You would take, tease them up to, but you just off this game. I'm not taking Houston plus,

plus any number. The next game is actually really interesting. And we're going to have to talk about this for a few minutes. Yeah. All right. So that is Detroit at Chicago. Chicago is a three-point home favorite uh so here's the deal with this one um you just can't back a public lions team on the road like i i and this line open it's the look at line was lines plus six

now it's at three now the argument can be made here. I can make the argument, Matt, and I can be talked out of not betting the Lions here and taking them, is that they're due for a win. Like, they're due for a victory. They should have beat Baltimore, and I can argue Baltimore should have kicked their ass. They dropped a bunch of passes.

I feel like we were on the right side of that one. Unfortunately, we didn't win the bet. But the Bears are so bad on offense. If they just play a tick better, Matt, they're going to be okay. And the Lions' defense is not good. I mean, they're 31st in DVOA. This could be the week where the Bears just play better in general. Everyone's talking shit about them.

We're ragged on Nagy. I just think this is not the best time to take the Lions on the road getting three points. I actually really disagree here. I think the Lions are a better team straight up. If you look at who the Lions have played. Really? First week, they pushed San Francisco, who I think we know what they are. They're pretty solid.

They kept it competitive and it must win for green bay at green bay in prime time okay baltimore they should have beaten them last week they've covered two out of the three games against the spread you mentioned their defense like yeah their defense got gashed by like that 49ers the week they were healthy but last week like baltimore didn't really do anything like you mentioned a lot of drops but like let's give Aaron Glenn some credit. That defense has held up in moments where I don't think anyone's expected it. I agree that the Bears aren't as bad as they were last week,

but I think Detroit kind of is what they are. They've been pretty consistent across their three games. You know, I want to mention, too, with the defense, like Jamie Collins collins are talking about trading him right they jeff akuta done for the year well no he's been he's been released okay so he got released um i just think that like they're really playing hard for their coach where it seems like on the other side that's actually not happening right like the bears the bears kind of looked like they didn't have a whole lot of fight in them last week, even with Justin Fields coming in.

I don't know. I agree. It's sort of scary to take a team that everyone thinks is, you know, the Detroit team that the public likes. But I didn't get this line. I thought this might be a pick because to me, the Lions have absolutely looked better than the Bears have at any point this season. Okay. Do you want to put this in maybe then? I would put this. I then i would put this i mean i like this one if i would put this as a maybe but if you're not

convinced like let's just put it on the list and see how it shakes out all right let's put on the list and see how it shakes out because um i'm not i might be talking myself out of a good play here but um let's uh let's get to our next game i'm on a pretty epic stink streak so you you're sort of slowing me and pumping the brakes on the Lions might be a good move for the podcast. Next up is a really good game at Carolina at Dallas. We're looking at a four-point line for Dallas. Obviously, no Christian McCaffrey. I'm not worried about that.

I did not get Shaba Harvard on waivers today. Hopefully, that doesn't ruin my season. What do you think about this one? Yeah, I mean, I feel like we're getting a good number here because Dallas just won big this past weekend. And it was a primetime game on Monday night. And Carolina's defense, guys, is really legit. Like, they're really good.

Are they? And they're actually, as a team, they're number one in DVOA. They're 12th on offense and 1 on defense. Dallas's defense is much better thisA. They're 12th on offense and one on defense. Dallas' defense is much better this year. They're at 15th. And we said if they're just average, they'll win the division. But I got a really good defense on a longer week, right? They have 10 days because they played on Thursday.

Getting four points, I kind of like this, man. I'm not worried about Christian McCaffrey not playing this game. I'm never worried about a running back not playing. But I would take the Panthers here plus the four and be happy with it so are we sure Carolina's defense is that good let's let's go through who they've played this season they beat the Jets by five at home they beat Davis Mills on a short week and they beat Jameis Winston like are we sure that they're good I mean look at this Dallas offense who kept up with Tampa beat the Chargers on the road and then just put up 40 points against the Eagles that game was over in the first quarter I mean the Eagles made it kind of interesting

but Dallas is like a totally new class of offense and I kind of feel like people are just saying like yeah Carolina like they're good look at how much they've improved last year they were one of the worst defenses in the league is it possible that they kind of got hot and played the Jets and the Texans in the first three weeks and might come back to earth well it's certainly possible but the things they do with their pass rush and their blitz schemes are very complicated and you're right they could just be fooling a bad teams and some bad teams but you know they would not be able to fool the cowboys which is certainly possible here and again we'd be taking a road like a kind of a road a road darling here getting four points doesn't feel like what we normally do in this situation

but we just want to take the line like who do you feel better plus lines plus three panthers plus four i feel better about dallas minus four than either of those. Oh, really? Yeah. I think Dallas absolutely covers this. Do you think that if this turns into any kind of shootout that Carolina can keep up? No, but that's assuming, I guess, their defense doesn't play well, right?

I mean – Dude, you're trusting Dallas as like – I don't know i mean dallas this season so usually like i'm with you like dallas is a team that always disappoints and they're a team that never covers this year they've covered all three games uh carolina has two feels like that's gonna change soon though of course that's yeah i mean most of the time it does but they haven't i feel like they're not getting credit here. Like this opened at five. It actually got bet down because people like Carolina so much. I mean, I just think Dallas has played two real teams.

And, you know, maybe should have lost both of them, but are one and one and covered in each. I don't know. I like Dallas here. Maybe we just stay away from this one for now because I don't really love Dallas, but I don't love Carolina. So I think we have some other ones that we actually do really like. So far, we got really none.

But the next game, I'm on this next game so hard. Okay, let's see which side. I know what side you're on. It's the Colts at the Dolphins. The Dolphins are a short home favorite linked to the Jacoby Brissett revenge game, Jeff. Are we taking a bite of this apple? Yeah, we're betting the Dolphins here.

I've been very fed Colts, and it's worked out really well for me. Carson Wentz is not a good quarterback. Here's the most amazing thing. Would you agree that the Colts offensive line, okay, which many, for years, many had thought, and I agree with them, was one of the best, now they suck, right?

Because Carson Wentz is now there, right? All of a sudden the team, they're not good anymore because Carson Wentz. Yeah, he's not a good quarterback. He holds the ball too long. He doesn't know what he's doing. Like the Dolphins looked capable with Jacoby Brissett against the Raiders, who are now surprisingly 3-0. And I'm not sure what Indy does terribly well.

They're 21st on defense efficiency. They're 27th on offense. The Dolphins are 7 on defense. Now, their offense is 28, but that's with Tua for two weeks, and they played terrible in those two games. Their offense last week was not bad. To me,'m all over the dolphins here again i am on a a fade colts train and i get the dolphins here minus two all over it yeah miami since florida's has been there is the best team in the league against the spread they're 22 and 13 buffalo is second, interestingly.

Green Bay third. So I have full faith in them. This is a good principled play to take the short home favorite. That's always a smart play. Fading Carson Wentz is always a smart play. Yeah, I'm with you here. It'll be crazy, though, if and when Indianapolis starts 0-4. That's one that I think would have really surprised a lot of people.

It would have surprised me too. So I just, I'm all in the points here. Let's do it. Short home favorites. Lock it in. We've got one. This is a great game. This, I think, is the game I'm going to be paying most attention to in the early window. It's Cleveland at Minnesota. Minnesota coming off a huge win last week. Cleveland dominating Chicago. Yeah, what do you think here? We've got Cleveland laying two, I should mention, in Minnesota. Yeah, I am all over the Vikings here. I think we're kind of in the same boat here.

The Vikings offensively are doing a really good job this year. I know that it's fun to mock Cousins and definitely worth doing that at some points. But their offense is seventh in EPA. Like they're, they're moving the ball down the field. They're ahead of the Browns offense. Now defensively, they've been kind of a wreck,

which has been a problem, right? The Arizona game and what Seattle got. But I think, I think they're just primed for another win in this spot. They can easily be what? Two and one in this spot, three,

no right now. Instead they're one and two off a good one against Seattle. they're back at home cousins is playing well the browns are going to sack the quarterback nine times this weekend um so i'm not worried about about you know their their defensive line quite in the same way um that i was last weekend um and you know how about this? The last 25 games at home before the COVID year with no fans, they were 19-6 in those 25 games. Last year, obviously, because of COVID, not very good, no home fans. And now they won again against Seattle. It's a hard place to play.

The Browns are off a good win where they're getting a lot of love for their defense. I will take the Vikings here and be happy with it. Me too. I think it's interesting. I can't really tell if Dalvin Cook is even factored into this line. A buddy of mine and I were talking about the players whose absence would move the line the most. I don't think the Panthers line really reflects McCaffrey being out at all. I don't think that this reflects Cook potentially being out at all. And in Cook's case, it probably shouldn't because Madison is such a capable fill in. Look, you said it, the Vikings could easily be three and O.

They're very battle tested to play the schedule that they've had already with Arizona, which is a game they should have won with that missed kick. The Bengals, which was an overtime game that could have gone either way. It's also week one. It was on the road. They dominated Seattle last week. This is a three-game home stretch um for the

vikings so they get another home game against detroit next week like this is where they get right i think they come out of this three and three and all of a sudden it's like huh mike zimmer maybe we shouldn't have written them off this this just feels like a great spot to fade cleveland i'm with you here so let's take the vik Vikings plus two at home and uh let's move it along here god this one are we gonna do this or not I don't think we're doing this it's the Giants at the Saints uh Saints laying seven and a half uh maybe we can see if this ever gets to seven I I don't know Giants are 10 and one against the spread their last 11 away. Like, they're good at covering road games. But they are so tragically terrible, man.

Like, I cannot bet on the Giants. They just lost a middle linebacker as well. Yeah, I'm good with just passing on this game. The Giants would be my play, but I'm good with just saying, deuces and go to another game. Well, I mean, what is New Orleans? Like, that's the thing that I've, I feel like they may be the team that I know the least

about after three weeks because their results have just been so all over the place. I don't trust them to cover a big spread like this. Giants would be the play. You're getting the hook. But man, I just cannot stomach that after going 0-5 two weeks ago and us

looking back. I'm with you. I think the under here, by the way, is at play. If you us looking back. I'm with you. Yeah, all right. I think the under here, by the way, is at play. If you're looking for a side here, the under could be at play here. 42. Yeah. I think that's the first quarter over under in the Mississippi-Alabama game. Moving on to Tennessee at the Jets.

Pass. The hapless Jets. Yeah, plus seven is the line. Sorry, guys. This is – Not trusting Tennessee's defense. We would have taken the Jets in any other year, but they're just a complete wreck right now.

I can't stomach betting on the Jets. I'd rather just take just better teams, even if it's the stupid, not the stupid play, but the public play just to not bet on the Jets. I can't do it anymore. Well, is this a stupid play, Jeff? The Chiefs laying seven at philadelphia uh mandy reed's homecoming well he's been back before we went there in 2013 um

that's too many points right i mean like at some point this is what the chiefs are right and like yeah we said this last week when we took them we took the charger i should say and said this is what they are. But the Eagles, we got fooled by week one. They have not played good football since then. But the Chiefs also haven't played good football. I mean, this screams like backdoor cover, right? The Chiefs up 14 in the fourth quarter.

And they just, you know, they're just kind of bullshitting at the end. And the Philly comes down and scores a touchdown. Like, that feels exactly how this game could end. And I don't – it's 7-7.5 right now. We told ourselves we're not going to bet, like, road teams with a hook, right? Like, favorites with a hook anymore. And what do you want to do here? I would be open to Kansas City here for the simple reason that I'm not sure that they are what they are.

I think it's hard when you have the target on your back for so long to constantly exceed expectations. At some point, the expectations get so high that you can no longer exceed them. I actually feel like you're kind of getting a buy low here. I mean, this is a team that just watched Dallas put up 40 on them. When the Chiefs do get right, it feels like they're going to get right in a big way. It could be here. It's sort of hard to predict when that will be.

This obviously will be an important game to Andy Reid, you would think. So maybe this is it. Next week they play Buffalo. So this could be one of those games where they just blow someone out and try to get right. Maybe. I just feel like a kind of look-ahead spot too for Buffalo. Andy Reid went to the hospital this week. He's back healthy.

I just – I don't have faith in Chiefs right now to cover games. I feel like we can find other places. I'll put this in the maybe pile. But we have other places that are better, just better numbers. Yeah, that's fine. Okay, well, this is probably the game of the week here other than the Sunday night game. Arizona against the Rams.

The Rams are laying four. This is a pretty interesting number. What do you think? Yeah, since McVay arrived in Los Angeles they've won all that games against the Cardinals they're seven and one covering the spread um and this number is not that high I'm all over the Rams here like I love the spot let's do it like I'm I'm like they're they're legit good and they're actually publicly they're not getting a ton of money and so I kind of I kind of thought they would but But everyone's looking at Arizona.

And, you know, look, the Rams right now, first and offensive DVOA, 13th on defense. Special teams a little worrisome. Arizona's right behind them, fourth overall, eighth on offense, sixth on defense. But again, Arizona's played, what, Tennessee? And they played, who'd they play? They played Tennessee, Minnesota,

and who else did they beat last week? And the Jacksonville. Are we sure they're good? No, we're not sure. In that Jacksonville game, they kind of tried to give away. Every single game they've tried to give away, it seems, at some point. And Kingsbury, definitely not as good at home, just 6-10 straight up out of Arizona. I love the Rams here.

I feel like they're kind of being, I think we're almost getting them at a low point value wise, because I think people are so hot on Arizona and Kyler Murray because they play fantasy football. Yeah. It's my opinion. I'm I'm with you there. So,

okay. We, we got the Rams. Let's do it. Well, I love that. All right. Nice.

Okay. Next one. Another great NFC West game. The Seahawks are going to San Francisco, three points standard home favorite for San Francisco. What do you think? Oh, next one. Another great NFC West game. The Seahawks are going to San Francisco. Three points standard home favorite for San Francisco. What do you think? Oh, I am heavily on Seattle here. Let's go.

Me too. I actually think the wager, we can't do this, but Seattle first half, because they cannot score in the second half. I think they have like 17 points in the second half of football games so far this year. They've not scored in the third quarter of any game. But here's some numbers here.

Russell Wilson is 20-11-2 against the spread as a road dog. This is from our friend Chris Rabon. Nice. He's 65% against the spread off a loss. And Kyle Shanahan is a favorite. 8-19-1 against the spread. Seattle's a desperate team. The Niners are very injured at cornerback

and I just feel like Seattle getting the three points I'm for this uh this is the team Russell Wilson is best against he's 15 and 4 against the 49ers in his career which is unbelievable because the 49ers have been good almost the whole time he's been in the league. Seattle, Seattle's not going one and three, right? Like there's just no chance. And San Francisco has looked pretty beatable in every single game they've played, including getting their asses kicked most of the game last week, but somehow staying in it until the end. I really like Seattle here.

All right, let's do it. Yeah, I thought last week, didn't you think Tyler Lockett like really got hurt for Seattle and he's, staying in it until the end um i really like seattle here all right let's do it yeah i thought last week didn't you think tyler lockett like really got hurt for seattle and he's but he's fine yeah i feel like somebody's fine yeah they they dodged a serious bullet there that guy's awesome um this is one i think you and i might disagree on uh baltimore is at denver in a fascinating game denver is a one point favorite now at You know, Denver, a lot of people are claiming a lot of smoke and mirrors with them, but I'm curious what you think.

If you had to guess where all the public money is, where would you guess? I would guess, I think I would guess Baltimore. It's all on Baltimore. Yeah, okay. I'm with the Broncos. Yeah, okay. The Broncos are good.

I was like doing the mental jiu-jitsu there. The Broncos are playing good football, guys. No, they play things that are 0-9. I get that. But I think the Broncos here are in a good spot to – it's funny, everyone on Action Network took Baltimore. I'm feeling better about picking Denver here then. I just think that Denver is playing some really good football.

And the Ravens' offensive line is still not quite right. They're dropping a bunch of passes, which is not ideal. Now, defensively, they get a bunch of guys back this week. But we'll see kind of as they work into the lineup how they do. And in the end, guys, Teddy Bridgewater is a covering machine. That's all he does is cover games. And I just think Denver's playing a lot better football than Baltimore right now.

Yeah, I agree. I mean, Baltimore, yeah, okay. The Broncos have not played a gauntlet of a schedule by any means. But I guess the Ravens have played a slightly difficult schedule for sure with, with Kansas city and the Raiders, but like,

I don't know. They haven't looked amazing to me at any spot. The chiefs, we kind of, we'll see if they're like the same chiefs as before. So I don't think that they've been like really tested. They're off of a miracle win where everyone's like, cool,

they're fine. I don't know. I like Denver here. I think that they're getting a little unfairly maligned for their schedule. They can't control who they play. No, but there's still three in offensive EPA, man. They're doing a really good job of just – I said this before. Teddy Bridgewater just does what the coach tells him to do.

That's just what they do. The third in defensive EPA, they're just a good football team i mean baltimore's 21st in defensive epa right now um yeah you know they missed some guys on defense i've had injuries again they have some guys coming back but how quickly can those guys kind of get up to speed here so um give me uh give me denver here yeah let's do it i mean is there a team that's better built to withstand two starting receivers going to i guess ham Hamler's not a starter, but you know, they still have Patrick. They still have Sutton.

Like they're fine. It's not ideal, but you're right. Yes. Yeah. I mean, their fourth receiver would be the best receiver maybe in Ravens history. That was maybe too,

too much of a stretch, but not that far of a stretch. All right. Moving on to Steelers at Packers. Packers are laying six and a half, which to be honest to me feels a little bit low. Yeah, it does. But I mean, we have five games on here, by the way, already.

Like we have five we like already. And we're not really laying or taking a bunch of points here. Yeah, I mean, everyone's going to bet Green Bay this week. The Steelers can't move the football. Off a primetime win. They're hearing about how bad they are, how much they suck. They're a prideful veteran team. The Packers should have lost last week to the Niners.

I'm very much okay with just staying away here. I think if you're wager on this game, I guess you take Green Bay. But that feels like the public money play, which I don't really think is the smart play here. Yeah, you're right. This is a trap. Tomlin is always better in moments like this where everyone counts them out. I think he's the best coach as an underdog against the spread of anyone that's active.

It's either him or Belichick. It's one of the two. And this is one of those games where we're going to look up and be like, huh? Pittsburgh covered this? Like this makes no sense. So he's 10-3 as a Dawgs as 2019. That's unreal. I mean, he stinks as a favorite,

but their teams are very good when people count them out, which happens more often than we probably remember for a team that's as good. I will say, though, Roethlisberger is cooked. Oh, he's so done. I was saying in our group thread that I think he reminds me of a fat Carson Wentz, which is just not a good place for him to be. No, definitely not. No.

All right, the game of the week, Jeff, the one that we've seen too many promos for for months. It's Tampa Bay at New England. We have to at least talk about this game, even though we're likely not going to take a side here. What do you think? Oh, geez. I mean, the side is New England,

but I just can't bring myself to do it right now. I mean, Mac Jones has knocked on the ball downfield. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss, and I don't know what Brady's numbers are off a loss, but I can't imagine that he's bad off a loss. And I just can't take that he's uh he's bad off a loss um and i i just i can't take new england in this spot we we we just don't know what they're going to do in offense tambe's defense a little beat up at secondary but that's not what new england does right so like okay they're beat up

in the secondary but okay that we don't throw the football very much so to me i'm this is a stay away game i'll enjoy watching this game but tom brady will break the passing record in this game um but i will stay away from wagering on it it does feel like um a good teaser team right you put new you put tampa bay in here down to about one and uh put them in a teaser i am predicting an absolute ass kicking by tampa in this game i think i'm not i'm not dying to bet it but i think that this is a potential like 40 point showing by the tampa offense like i get you know we know what belichick does we know what the patriots do at home we know the patriots prime time like every all those trends all those trends happened when tom br Brady was there. And now Brady is coming off of a loss, playing a rookie quarterback. Remember that the Bucks defense is on paper one of the best units.

You mentioned the secondary. That doesn't matter. And by the way, they just signed Richard Sherman, who is PFF's number one graded corner last year. Obviously, he won't be amazing off the bat if he's even able to play with the COVID protocols. This kind of just happened. So I not at speed on that but i do feel like this is a terrible matchup for new england james white is not going to play so that's that's like a that's like their probably best pass catching option like given that aguilar hasn't showed up and myers you know or is anyone scared of jacoby myers like i just don't see a path where New England keeps this thing even close.

And it's going to be amazing watching the Patriots fans turn in the middle of the game and start like cheering for Tom Brady. It's going to happen. Oh, I think Tom Brady will get a ginormous. They're not going to care if they lose. I think they'll give him a huge innovation. The question is,

do they stop the game when he, when he breaks the passing record? I think so. Right. I think so too. Yeah. I think, I think they, they want to do the right thing here.

And remember, they dumped him. He didn't just say, like, screw you guys. They dumped him. No, I agree. I agree. I'm rooting for Tom. I can't believe it. But I'm ready to start having the Is Bill Belichick overrated conversation.

I'm ready. I'm here for it. The Monday Night Game is another good one. The Raiders are going to the chargers yeah here in la uh the chargers are laying three and a half interesting number yeah i mean i to me this this does feel like you take the raiders and the points right on the road here um yeah i don't like waiting until monday night for any of our wagers um yeah it's a standalone game it gets gets bet a lot. The number changes. Right now, it's Wednesday, right?

By the time this game comes out Monday, we might get totally for number. I think the Raiders are the players. The Raiders are playing good football, man. And the Chargers come off a big win. They still do some Chargers stuff. They've had three or four touchdowns called back. John Gruden has actually been really good on the road. Now, again, the numbers from last year

have to be thrown away. Last year, it was 7-1 on the road. Now, again, the numbers from last year have to be thrown away. Last year, it was 7-1 on the road. That doesn't count this year, right? There were no fans last year. I think, to me, those numbers from last year kind of just throw them out. But the Raiders do feel like if you're taking a number aside here, you're going with the Raiders. Again, I don't feel great about it, so I'm going to stay away.

At least for me, maybe you like them. But the Raiders are playing good ball. Yeah, I agree. to pick it i'd take the raiders um i like i like the hook uh so yeah it's potential out there but um i think we have five better ones but i do like the raiders so here's what we have right now you ready we got we got miami minus two at home against the culture fading carson wentz let's lock that. I'm good with that. Minnesota plus two. I think we both like the Vikings here. We're good here, right? A lot of money on the Browns this week.

Rams minus four against the Cardinals. Feels like we're going on a public home play. I'm fine with that. I think the Rams are just the best. Sometimes you have to bet on the better team, and that's the Rams. Seattle plus three at San Francisco. Love it.

And Denver minus one. That's pretty Rams. Seattle plus three at San Francisco. Love it. And Denver minus one. It's pretty good picks. Like the other ones we thought were Washington. So I'm no, we're not betting on Washington. Detroit plus three and no. I mean, who are we taking out for Detroit? Probably the Rams. They're the one I would feel just because of the number.

But come on. It's the Rams. It's only four. Yeah, screw it. Dallas minus four. can't say minus seven yeah pass that yeah so i'm good man this is good man this is efficient we were on the same page with a lot of these and had good productive healthy debates on the others you maybe talked us out of one or two that i liked and maybe i did the same but likely my contributions i'm on like

an epic streak of just sucking at these that aren't on the podcast. So let's hope I turn it around. We've been, we've been, you know, gambling is hard guys. And here's the thing about it is that you, you have to, it's a week by week thing, right? Like you just, you're going to lose some weeks, you're going to win some weeks, but you have a process you trust. It's okay. We went 0-5 two weeks ago. Bounce it back to 3-2 week. We get another 3-2 week or 4-1

week and we're rolling, right? We're back on pace. So that's all it is, guys. You just have to keep grinding away. It's an extra week this year, Matt, too, right? It's an extra week. So plenty to do each week. Thank you once again for listening. Please rate, review, subscribe. Again, we are powered

by the Vity podcast network come back with us monday we have our college show next tuesday we'll have the nfl show thursday we'll break down the next week of wagers have a great weekend everyone good luck best luck with your wagers talk to you guys monday