Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 6 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 5

Episode Date: October 7, 2021

Geoff and Matt return to make their picks for the three best games in college football this coming weekend, Georgia vs. Auburn, Penn St. vs. Iowa, and Oklahoma vs. Texas in the Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl. Geoff says this may be the worst Oklahoma team Texas has faced in eight years, and neither are convinced that  Bo Nix will find any success against a Georgia defense that has their sights set on “legendary.”Geoff and Matt talk through every game from the upcoming weekend of NFL action (11:00) to choose their best bets, highlighting a few games they’re betting on (Browns vs. Chargers, Giants vs. Cowboys) as well as a few they’re staying away from (Titans vs, Jaguars, Niners vs. Cardinals). They break down Russell Wilson’s success on Thursday nights, the Dolphins’ identity crisis, and whether or not Daniel Jones can be trusted in big games.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday october 7th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smart and you are powered by the varsity podcast network this is our weekly wagering podcast um and even though the title is jeff schwartz is smarter than you uh i have not been smarter than the sharps i've not been smarter than the public i've not been smart anyone matt we have struggled mightily on the NFL side. We are 7-13 right now. And I don't think we've made bad picks. We just haven't gone our way, really.

I don't know what else to say. Yeah, it's not been great. Our show has suffered. Maybe that's why none of our producers showed up today. It's because we've been so streaky the last few weeks. But it's hard, man. I don't know i actually feel really good about the picks this week um this feels it it feels like people get hot at different times and right around now as i feel like where i usually hit my stride is

better i'm great in the futures i'm good in week one i suck for the next few weeks and then tend to come back so hopefully we can sort of reverse things i'm pretty good at the start of seasons which hasn't happened this year and at the end of seasons last our last month last year we were on fire we were all right before we get to nfl let's get to our college as usual we'll start with the red river rivalry red river shootout whatever you want to call it texas oklahoma uh it's about a field goal uh right now. Favorite is Oklahoma minus three, minus three and a half. Total is 63 and a half, 63, somewhere around there. And I'm looking at the under in this game, Matt, for a couple reasons. One is Oklahoma's offense hasn't been quite as the same as it's been in the past.

And that's okay. But the reason why is their offensive line. Their offensive line has graduated so many players to the NFL that they're just not rushing the ball in the same manner they have in the past. And it's put more pressure on Spencer Rattler, who might just not be as good as Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield or Jalen Hurts, right?

Just might not be those guys. And I think you look at a Texas defense that is very talented and they have dudes that can, I think, can make it a little bit difficult for this Oklahoma offensive line. I think that for that side of the ball, they're going to score points. I think they win the game. I would take Oklahoma minus the three, three and a half, but I think the under again for these couple of reasons. Secondly, Texas's offensive line right now is down their left guard. They

move their right tackle to left guard. They moved a backup into right tackle and they're playing by the way in Oklahoma defense that um is much better than usual this year like they're they're the they're the team they're the side that's carrying this team right they've won games this year 23 16 16 13 now last weekend against K-State it was 37 31 but K-State scored late to make that more respectable. And so I'm just going with two offensive lines aren't very good, two defenses that should control the line of scrimmage. Texas is good at getting home with pressure.

They're good at blitz rate. They're good on third down. I'd say the under is the play here, under 63. I think this game is in the 20s. Both teams score in the 20s. So no side? No side in this one. Not, no. I'd say the under is the play here, under 63. I think this game is in the 20s. Both teams score in the 20s. So no side. No side in this one.

Not, no. I would take Oklahoma here, but this game tends to be pretty close. Texas has covered a seven in the last eight. That one being that they haven't covered was last year, and that game was in four overtimes. That's why they didn't cover this game. Yeah. Yeah. Well, it looks like the Sharps are jumping all over the under here

uh big discrepancy in public and or bets percentage and money percentage uh according to our friends the action network so um yeah that that's a nice play um interesting how far this line has moved i think you know it could be fun to take a texas money line here i maybe this is just the uh this is just the professional football player fan in me but it's like this is sort of like my opinion about the cowboys last week here where it's like sometimes you just take the better offense who can who's getting some points or it doesn't seem like they're getting enough credit for how good their offense is oklahoma's played a bunch of close games i think it could be fun to take texas on the money line the one concern I have about their offense is and Bijan Robinson is fantastic he's their running back he might be the best runner in all the country is I do feel like

they're they're sort of one-dimensional and if Oklahoma puts all their focus into stopping the running game is like can they do enough in the passing game to keep up Oklahoma's offense just plays better which we saw a little bit last week in the United States. So I'm just, I'm with you there. I think that if you were to maybe make a play on this, Texas Moneyline makes a little bit of sense. They've only won two of the last eight matches, but this is the worst Oklahoma team, which is weird to say they're 5-0, than that, you know, that they faced maybe the last eight years.

I can't wait for Bajon Robinson to be an Atlanta Falcon next year, where they they again don't address the quarterback or anything else in their team and have like the best wide receiver tight end running back combo it's it's destined that's incredible um all right let's get to uh to another game uh in the south um georgia is at auburn here uh the Deep South's oldest rivalry. And this one feels pretty easy to me. So I write for Fox Sports, and I think the play here is Georgia minus the 15. But if you don't want that, I'm looking at Bo Nix passing yards is under 190, or Auburn's team total is 14.5 under those. Georgia's defense is number one in the country.'ve allowed 23 points all season and it's it's very easy to say they're gonna have a letdown after beating arkansas but i'm not sure

they viewed arkansas as like a good team like i'm not sure that this is a letdown for them right they beat a ranked team at home as they should now they go on the road to auburn in their rivalry game and defenses travel man like d like they're they're they're in record-setting mode like they're trying to be the best defense of all time right to be just to allow the least amount of points they're allowing 102 passing yards per game this season right like they're trying to set records and you're playing a Bo Nix led offense that is a Bo Nix led offense right they're they're 124th in country points per scoring opportunity is is Auburn, right? Their 92nd in explosive plays. Their 104 in drives per game.

They don't see the ball often, and they don't finish very often. They don't finish drives. So I think any time you could take an Auburn team total under here, a Boenix under passing yards, and even Georgia minus a 15, because I don't think Auburn scores. This game feels 28-7 to me, right? There's a little concern, I think, on Georgia's side with the quarterbacks. They don't have to do very much.

And what happens if Auburn's defense plays better than expected and they get to a passing game? I get that. But I feel very comfortable that Auburn will have trouble scoring and moving the ball in this game. Yeah. Interesting here. It's so much overwhelming.

91% of the money currently on Georgia at 15 or even 15 and a half um yeah all all good points uh they're george's allowed 4.6 points per game this season jeff how insane is that that's dude they're they're incredible um and speaking about incredible defenses the big game of the week or one of the big games the the week, Penn State at Iowa. If you had to guess the last time, what year, is the first Big Ten matchup with top five ranked opponents that does not have Ohio State? What year was that? Without Ohio State, man, who would it even have been?

It would have been like it would have been michigan and i honestly like who i maybe penn state it has to have been like 10 years ago maybe 1997 damn was that like who was it was that like northwestern it was like michigan someone else yeah interesting well who do you like in this one? So Penn State is getting a couple points here. I like Penn State here for a couple reasons. Iowa is number one in the country in forced turnovers. They have 16 forced turnovers,

number one in the country in turnover margin. They're number one in the country in average field position. They're second in the country in points per game on defense. They're right behind Georgia, points per drive, adjusted area arms per temp. They're fourth in the country in explosive play rate on defense. They're right behind Georgia, points per drive. Adjusted area per attempt. They're fourth in country, exposed to play rate on defense. Their defense is great.

But guess what? Penn State's defense is also good, right? They're fourth in points per drive. They're eighth in adjusted area yards per attempt. They're 10th in exposed to play rate. The difference here, Matt, to me, is the offenses, right? Iowa's offense is poo.

They're not good. Their success rate on offense is 114th. Their exposed to play rate is 112th. They're supposed to play right at 112th. They're 113th in yards per carry. What happens if they don't force turnovers in this game? What do they do for points? They're not going to score points, right? So you're basically, if you're taking Iowa here,

you're wagering them forcing three to four turnovers again, which is hard to handicap a game in that manner, right? Penn State's offense with Sean Clifford is getting a little bit better, a little bit better, right? Their offensive success rate. So, you know, success rate is defined like first and 10, you get five yards, right? Second and five, you get, I think it's three or four yards. Third down, obviously, you convert on third down.

At 47, right, right now in the country. They're 36 and plays over 20 yards. I think Penn State's offense is better. They're on the road, I get it, but they've already played. They went to Wisconsin. They're not worried about playing at Iowa. So I like Penn State here. I'll Penn State's offense is better. They're on the road. I get it, but they've already played there. They already went to Wisconsin. They're not worried about playing in Iowa. So I like Penn State here. I'll take the two points. Take them to the money line, whatever. I want to give a

gripe very quickly. So there's obviously plenty of people who talk about gambling and plenty of them are great. I don't understand people that turn down points to take the money lines. Like, especially in the NFL, there's people that give out they're like, yeah, I want this team on the money money line why don't you take the three points like that feels you turn down points in the nfl out of all places it's matt blows my mind man interesting yeah i

don't know if it's like one one and a half i i sure i can go either way but two and a half yeah that's that's about where you get that's that's where you start to get a little nervous. I think I got to just just say this, man. Iowa absolutely beat the shit out of my Maryland Terrapins last week. And I think they're getting a nice bump out of that. Maryland was definitely coming in a little overrated and just kept coughing the ball up left and right. So I think if like Iowa has a more normal game against just about anyone, they don't look quite as good as last week. So by that point about turnovers, their average field position is like 40. Iowa has a more normal game against just about anyone. They don't look quite as good as last week. That's my point about turnovers.

Their average field position is like 40. They just had the ball in plus territory the entire game last week. So I imagine that maybe they're a bit overinflated. And you're right. Penn State's just a little more battle-tested. They played Wisconsin. They played Auburn already. Iowa has not had quite that much trouble yet on their schedule. So I tend to agree here.

It's always tough to take teams on the road in an atmosphere like that. But I think I'm with you. All right, let's move to the NFL, which we obviously love to do. We'll come up with five wagers and we'll hopefully do better than one or four last week. So let's start the thursday night game matt inch by inch jeff uh let's yeah the thursday night game great this week a crucial game for seattle uh who's hosting the rams the rams are up to two and a half point favorites on the road uh a little surprising but i don't know maybe it's not surprising what do you think um so it's an

interesting game because what would the what would the line have been had the rams won the game against the cardinals you think hmm that's a good probably i don't think it would be that much higher do you three maybe three and a half i probably would have been three and a half or four. Yeah, that's probably right. I think the Rams are a better team. Yeah. And all the money's on the Rams. I mean, we kind of stay away from these games, from these Thursday night games.

If this was three, I would be on the Seahawks, I feel like. If it's two and a half, I'm on the Rams. I think that point kind of does matter here. But the Rams are better almost everywhere maybe except quarterback. But their offensive line, like, they just don't protect particularly well yet. And it just – watching their games, it's always just a mad scramble for shit to happen. Like, I just – I feel more comfortable with the Rams who got embarrassed

and want to bounce back now. Yeah. with the Rams who got embarrassed and want to bounce back now? Yeah, the trends with Sean McVay off a loss are overwhelmingly indicating like, hey, you should take the Rams here. But I actually, speaking of trends, this is one where I think we might have to like throw out last year and just look at Russell Wilson historically and the Seahawks historically in this spot. OK, so the first Thursday night football game of Russell Wilson's career was at San Francisco and he lost it. He's won every other Thursday night game since he's nine and one.

He's seven and one in the NFC West in those in those Thursday night games. He's five and oh at home on Thursday night. This guy just for whatever reason, he's found success in these shorter weeks. The other thing here, so he has the best Thursday night record in the NFL, percentage-wise. The other thing that is just always true here is when you

have a road favorite against a good quarterback getting this much money on the road, I think you just have to take Seattle. No matter what. it doesn't even matter who the teams are it's just the right play and then when you add in this sort of like magical russell wilson at home on thursday night thing like we sort of wondered if the seahawks had lost their edge at home last year that's not going to continue to happen like this crowd is

going to show up yeah the the seattle crowd we're used to is going to make an impact i actually think everyone's saying like this is kind of a buy high or sell high spot for the seahawks i guess because they're coming off of kind of a scrubby win against san francisco but like they need this game right like the rams yeah the rams have played a gauntlet of a schedule like they can't get up for every single game like i get that they're off a loss but this is i just i love seattle here like not I get that they're off a loss, but I love Seattle here. Not because I think they're better, but because of the situation. Rams have covered four of the last five matchups against Seattle. That doesn't mean they've won them all, obviously, including the playoffs.

The overs hit a bunch in these matchups. Obviously, we stay away from Thursday games, but I think you can convince me either way. Again, if this was at three, I think I'd be all over it. It'd be an automatic, but at two and a half, it's like, it's one of those where they,

they know what they're doing. So I mean, cause I think every, all the money would come out in Seattle plus three. Let's get to the, there's an early Sunday game. I don't know how much we're going to spend time talking. Do we have to talk about it?

It's jets Falcons, the lines at three, I think in the super contest, right? Yes. So yeah, it's, it's falcons by three um i i we're not betting on this but if you have a feeling go for it uh no i have no feeling whatsoever um these teams both suck and i have no desire to wager any sort of money on this game at all um i would imagine this sharp money is probably on atlanta in this game maybe

um it's sort of split it's a little bit more on the jets actually well jets got a win falcons who the hell knows what they're doing they're terrible they lost to the washington football team uh 34 30 uh let's move to the next game um this is this one's pretty interesting for me very interesting game uh this is carolina hosting the eagles uh what's the super contest line we're just gonna go after that because we're taking a little later three three and a half three and a half here okay interesting uh what do you think so i said i wasn't taking any lines with the favorites at three and a half but that lasted one week yeah so here's so here's my question matt where are the eagles better than the panthers right now like at what position are you like you know what

they're better than the panthers yeah with all the injuries i would have said up front on probably both sides but they're so banged up already yeah so jolaine johnson the right tackle for the eagles is i believe coming back from a personal shoot but there's no guarantee he plays both guards are out for the eagles for the season obviously kel I believe, coming back from a personal issue, but there's no guarantee he plays. Both guards are out for the Eagles for the season. Obviously, Kelsey is still great at center. The left tackle has been out two weeks, but he may or may not come back. He practiced this week.

We'll see if he plays. Defense alone, they lost Brandon Graham. Their Eagles secondary is still not any good. And their defensive DVOA is 24. They're 28th against the run. The Panthers should get McCaffrey back this weekend. And I just think the Panthers are just a much better team. Since week one, the Eagles have not looked very competitive.

I mean, week one, we're like, oh, my God. Look at the Eagles. They went into Atlanta. They smashed them. Their offensive and defensive lines look great. But since they've had that many injuries, they played close against the Niners. They got blown out by the Cowboys and Chiefs. The Panthers, yeah, they had a bad game in Dallas. But they played the crappy teams pretty well.

Their pressure packages are pretty intense and pretty unique. And I think Jalen Hurts and that offensive line is going to suffer trying to figure out what they're doing. They're just a young offensive line and a young quarterback still. I like the Panthers here. It's a very public play. I get that. There's been a 4-0 week, so I'll take 3.5. But I think Eagles are also 1-7 against the spread their last eight road games.

I like the Panthers here. Yeah. It's funny. I was leaning towards laying off this, but I think you've convinced me. I mean, the thing with the Panthers is I bet they're over seven and a half wins, which looks promising. But I will say that I do think they're a little bit overrated. of credit for some of these early season wins where like they beat the crap out of the saints where the saints were coming off like a big emotional shutout uh and everyone thought they were a little bit better than they are they beat the jets and zach wilson's first start on the road they barely beat them they beat the texans on that short week with davis mills and then they got smoked by dallas like they they hung with them for like a half and then you know this like vaunted

defense that's full of these like young guys that have a lot of upside like you know we had we let's let's give it more than you know three weeks against davis mills to see if anything um having said that though i think your points about the eagles are right like it just feels like everyone's giving them the benefit of the doubt because like they've put up decent like fantasy numbers or something like i i don't totally understand like what people see in the eagles um if mccaffrey is back the line has not priced him in at all like you said it the line was higher this week it's actually dropping because i think people do like the eagles a little bit and if mccaffrey is back then he has to add something like he's not worth a half a point he's worth more than that so i i think that we're actually getting a decent price here on the panthers um if you feel comfortable i i'm good i'm good i'm good at three and a half

okay all right panthers have only not covered one game this year so you know they've they've been pretty reliable against the spread so they haven't they just they missed dallas last week but they've covered yeah yeah yeah all right moving on to uh man this one is so fun this green bay at cincinnati game uh we're getting this at three uh minus three for green bay on the road um this is a fascinating one i feel like i could go either way yeah oh man i mean the thing is we're just not getting the best line for the bangles right now because this line was i believe at four to open at three and a half four which is pretty interesting so the bangles the bangles defense is is not half bad line for the Bengals right now because this line was, I believe, at four to open at three and a half, four. The Bengals' defense

is not half bad. They're fifth in DVOA right now. They're doing some good things. They're really good against the run. They're slightly worse against the pass, but not all that bad against the pass. They're doing some really good things. The Packers are without Jair Alexander,

Z'Darri Smith, and David Bakhtiari, plus Elton Jenkins, their offensive lineman, might not play as well. doing some some really good things the Packers are without Jairz Alexander it's Darius Smith and David Bakhtiari plus Elton Jenkins their offensive lineman might not play as well I think all the money right is going to be on Green Bay in this game uh if I have this right a lot of it's to me a lot of it's on Green Bay so far Bengals are at home and we feel like the play is the Bengals here it actually seems like the Bengals got a late push here since we even prepped for this right now they have the money split about 50 50 but about 80 percent of the bets are on the Packers which is a huge flag I I know that's a huge flag I still think that Green Bay like I'm not totally

in on Cincinnati yet like the thing that my like early hypothesis for what we're going to look back on and be like that was weird it's like all of these kind of bad defenses or like seemingly mediocre defenses are kind of off to a really good start and all these like really vaunted defenses are off to a bad start like we haven't seen like you know the 49ers or Washington or the Rams like have these like blowout defensive games yet but we're seeing like Carolina and Cincinnati like start hot so I personally think the Bengals are a little over inflated here and I would be happy taking the three um for Green Bay who I think is still like a little bit underrated like they've proven it I think that they're that they're a real team

I'm not sure if the Bengals are it's not like the most difficult home crowd i mean no offense to cincinnati fans but i do think that you know aaron rogers laying three against the bangles like that that's not that's kind of tasty i think these injuries though kind of bother me with with the packers right i mean you're without your best corner without your best pass rusher um i would we could i think we can only choose a couple of public plays. Yeah, true. And for me, I like the Panthers better in this spot. So Green Bay will be on the list. They're on the list at minus three.

We'll put them there. I will say, though, quickly, that you mentioned the Packers injuries. Joe Mixon's injury is huge. And I watched Samaje Pirine in Washington. That is not a guy that's instilling a lot of confidence. If they need to control the ball against this defense, they're going to have some trouble. Yeah.

All right, let's get to the next game. It is Patriots at Texans. Are we spending any time on this game? Are we feeling a side? I believe it's at, what's it at here? It's plus nine. Plus nine. Oh, geez.

Yeah, I mean, we can't bet on Davis Mills, but I got to say I do kind of like Houston. I think this is the ultimate sell high on the Patriots. They're getting a lot of credit for almost not losing at home last week to Tom Brady in a Bucs game that was in the pouring rain and they didn't even look good. Did you guys talk on Monday about the decision to kick on it from the, from 56? Did you guys talk about that?

A little bit. I mean, the numbers were, were kind of, it depended on, on who you, on who you looked at. I mean, some had a, the wind probability, even some had it, you know, plus three, if they went for it. It was a, it was a tough decision. I just don't think he trusted Mac Jones in that spot. But he trusted Nick Folk in the rain?

To me, that was one of the strangest in-game coaching decisions I've ever seen. It just made no sense. And by the way, even if he made it, there would have been a minute left. You know that Brady was going to score. You know what I mean? It wasn't with four seconds left. It was so weird to me. So I'm out on the Patriots.

I think that if this were to somehow get to plus 10 on game day, which it probably will, I would pull the trigger on the Texans. But it's no fun to bet on them. The Patriots defense is good, though. That's what I would worry about Davis Mills not being able to move the ball at all. So I would stay away from this game. Very possible. All right.

Next up, Titans at Jaguars. What do we got here? Yeah, I guess. So the super contest line on this game, let me see, is four and a half now, plus four and a half at home for Jacksonville. God, dude, is there a more difficult team to handicap in the NFL right now than the Titans? And then we have this whole Jacksonville situation.

I was going to be all over Jacksonville for the Urban Meyer stuff this week like I was all over Jackson this is a perfect spot right they're starting to play a little bit better the Titans I mean they're what are the Titans they're kind of up and down they're going now back on the road again but I you can't wager on Urban Meyer's team right now I mean they've given up right they're not giving up I should the have it, but they're out on their coach. You can't wager on a team that's out on their coach. This is going to be one of my favorite plays this week, but I can't make the play right now because of that.

And Tennessee, obviously, I'm staying away from them because who knows what they are. They should not be laying points on the road like this. But I think that tells you, like, I think, again, Sunday, when we looked at the lines looking to this week, this is one of favorite ones but i can't wager on now because urban meyer situation and again to be fair to talk about this real quick the urban meyer situation has nothing to do with him getting a lap dance by a random chick that that's that's what him and his wife to deal with it's the fact that he didn't go back with the team to start preparing for the next week even if he

wasn't going to prepare but just the idea of coming back like dude everyone else came back everyone else is getting ready to play and you're out in a bar with someone you shouldn't be with like that so i think that's that's why everyone's upset nothing to do with we're not judging him based off of what he did with that with that cow we're judging him based off of his decisions as a football coach how it affects his team yeah i mean i think that's like a very fair summary i think you could be much more much much more fiery about if you chose to i i think that um i'm with you um i it looks so aj brown has practiced this week julio jones has not like by the way this is what everyone said

would happen with julio jones Like he made it through week three. He had one great game. Like, congratulations. I was with you, man. Like I and by the way, like doesn't sometimes doesn't it sometimes like not matter? Like this could be a game where Jacksonville is just like, just can we just like get off the schneid here? Like Trevor Lawrence is playing a lot better. That offense like is fun and good. And Tennessee sucks. Like this is possible playing a lot better. That offense like is fun and good. And Tennessee sucks.

Like this is possible. Jacksonville wins. I guess. But I just don't feel comfortable waging on a team that doesn't believe in their coach. Yeah. You can't like spend actual money betting on this. Like in theory on a show, I could make the argument. But like, no, you can't actually do it.

Yeah. But you can't bet on Tennessee either, by the way. Like you cannot take them i bill barbell wrote a thing this week maybe today that was about uh derrick henry's usage and how at this point in the season it's so much higher than previous seasons which we already thought was like too much this team is in trouble like if if they can't figure out the sort of balance of how to use henry and then what to do with these wide receivers and how they can't figure out the sort of balance of how to use Henry and then what to do with these wide receivers and how they can function if Julio, if and when Julio is down, which is going to keep happening, like Tennessee could be in real trouble. I'm with you. That's yeah.

Well, we'll see. Next up, speaking of teams in real trouble, the Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting Denver. This line's moved throughout the week. Let's say it's a minus one for pittsburgh um do we what's the latest with teddy do we know yet i i we don't know what teddy status is we don't know what ben status is like this is a complete no wager game you cannot wager on this game until you know more about the quarterbacks um if both quarterbacks were playing i i actually might lean a little pittsburgh here but i just i no no the quarterbacks

are on who i'm not betting on drew lock and mason rudolph or duane haskins like we don't even know what the status is big ben is going to play but if he has a hip injury that affects his accuracy matt no i'm out on this 100 out on this game yeah i'm not going to try too hard to convince you i would take pittsburgh probably no matter who was playing they're just too good they're just too good man like they're just too good of an organization to like lose another game against a team like this all the all the public money's on pittsburgh too oh gross public is two-thirds of the money of the bets are on pittsburgh but uh almost 80 of the bets are on pittsburgh so the sharps are on Pittsburgh, but almost 80% of the bets are on Pittsburgh. So the Sharps are on the same side. I think everyone's just kind of waiting.

And if Teddy plays, then it's a little bit harder of a call. And I bet Denver becomes the favorite, actually. But for now, they're sort of in limbo. So I do think Pittsburgh bounces back. They've played terribly. Ben's been awful. Their offensive line is bad. But their defense is going

to turn it around at some point and they will be a team that matters this season it's just it's just a matter of when they get it together yeah so much respect for them uh all right next game i think i think we might have a a winner in this game we'll see oh interesting all right uh it's the saints at my washington football team uh the washington football team is getting two and a half, I believe, in the Super Contest. Yeah, they are. So what do you think? It's got to be Washington, right? Yeah, definitely.

All the money is on New Orleans this week. They think they're going to bounce back. But are they good on offense? I know Washington's defense has been criticized. So pro football focus, right? There's grades, all the plays and whatnot. They have Washington's pass rush second in all of football right now do they really yeah so like they're and i've talked to my guys brandon thorne and duke manningweather about this who studied they're like

washington defense line is close they're like really close now i'm not sure this is the weekend against the saints offensive line where they kind of get home but now their coverage sucks but the saints don't really have a passing game, right? Like their passing game is Alvin Kamara and trying to find a little bit, you know, little things here and there. So to me, I like Washington in this spot. I mean, Taylor Heineke is getting it done enough.

Getting their home, getting two and a half points. Again, all the money is on New Orleans in this spot. I don't know if washington is is should demands our respect in this spot but i think it's a good situational play for us yeah the other thing about washington is they they're home for the saints this week they host kansas city next week then they're at green bay and at denver and then they play the bucks after a buy so like this is the one where they're like if if it's coming together it's coming together now um so i do like them in this spot the thing that is worrisome though is like they are one of these

teams that got insanely banged up uh right away like they have tons of guys that are that are out logan thomas the big one obviously they're you know we're riding with the backup quarterback sheriffs out i just think they have to win this game and getting the two and a half against james winston with that defense at home like you gotta take them i'm with you i'm let's go washington here two and a half at home okay we have two for sure uh lions at vikings uh the vikings are laying nine is the latest, nine and a half in the Super Contest. Oh, nine and a half is a bad number.

Yeah. God, what to do with this one. So I actually like the Vikings in this one. I thought I liked the Lions originally, but our friend Chris Rabon has some interesting stuff. Zimmer is 68% against the spread off a loss, including 4-0 against the spread as a favorite of more than seven points.

Detroit is now missing their center, who's the best offensive lineman wow their best pass rusher and they look continually worse each as each game goes by right like i've told you they're a good bad team now they just seem like a really bad team um and the vikings are our home they're desperate to get another victory obviously did not play well last weekend i'm inclined to even at nine and a half to take to take the vikings here look i i just i i mean i guess there's a backdoor cover uh possibility here for the lions um but i don't know how this game stays close if minnesota plays. The problem is we don't know if Minnesota is always going to play well. But 9.5 is a shit number considering that you get this number at 8.5. I don't know if you can still get an 8 in some places. Even 9, 8.5.

I don't like it, Jeff. Minnesota is not covering games. The Lions are frisky. The Vikings, the Vikings could be in like meltdown quit mode faster than we think. I just, I don't trust them, dude.

I think we can find better games than this. Okay. All right. I agree with you, but like, I don't know if the 10 points for the Vikings, they, they stink,

man. I'm good with it. We could pass. We'll find some more. I think there's more out there. Next up. The last one o'clock game is, is Tom Brady's Buccaneers hosting the dolphins.

10 is the line that we are going to work with. Right. 10 is the line. We're going to work with. Talk, talk to me. Oh man. So the dolphins are broken.

Like they're just, they have no offensive identity. They're not playing well in offense. And now they get a defensive line that's going to dominate this game. Like, unless something weird happens. Unless something happens that we just don't see. Like, unless Miami's offensive line just somehow transforms into something that they haven't been in a long time but they're gonna they're gonna dominate this game um and miami's

defense has not been as good as we've seen in the past uh the special teams are not as good as they've been last season right they won a lot of games last year special teams and defense special teams are now 23rd in dvoa right They've won a lot of games that way. Gronk is out, obviously. I mean, if I had to put money on this game, and maybe I don't know what side you like here, I'd take the Bucs minus the 10. I just think that this is not one that,

I mean, I don't want to take the Dolphins, but that would be the side if I had to make a pick that I would pick the Dolphins because they have looked despondent they have too good of a coaching staff for them to just be a complete and utter shit show for much longer i think um the other thing is tampa coming off of that emotional win this is not like a must win game for them this is just a like let's get right they have so many injuries in their secondary like they have a lot to sort of like get better at i can see them like i could see them having one of those games that are like yeah let's just like beat the crap out of this team to feel good but i could also see it if like hey can we just like give ronald

jones the ball a bunch and just grind this out and win like i could see that and miami like they need to get it together like they need to do it pretty soon they've had a couple weeks now terrible performances a couple weeks now we've done it had a couple of weeks now, terrible performances. We've had a couple of weeks now. We've had a couple of weeks now. So yeah, but they've had, you know, they've had like a reasonably difficult schedule to,

to deal with. So I don't know. I like the plus 10, but not enough to, to try to convince you. Yeah. All right. Let's,

let's move it along. Yeah. This is tough. There's a lot of games like that. The great game at four or five, the Browns are at the chargers. The chargers are a short home favorite of one and a half. What do you think? The Chargers cannot stop the run. They're very bad against the run.

What do the Browns do, right? Run the ball, all right? The Browns, I mean, the Chargers left tackle's good, Rashawn Slater. The right tackle's bad. And the Browns have an excellent pass rush. I think they're going to make life hell for Justin Herbert. And we know Justin plays well under pressure. I get that.

But that pressure over a game leads to mistakes, leads to interceptions, leads to issues. Now, Baker Mayfield's not playing that great right now. But I think with the run game, the play-action pass, we saw the Raiders hit a couple of those, charged off a big emotional win. I will go with the Browns here getting a point and a half on the road yeah the the browns defense has has been great this season uh i think i still think they are one of the best teams uh in the league they have played kind of a soft schedule but they're winning and you know i think the chargers have been a tiny bit of smoke and mirrors like they've been hitting all these fourth downs like you know they've been super aggressive i get that you know logically you probably should be taking

the short home favorite with a good quarterback but i i just really like cleveland and i think that they're i don't know i think this is a little bit of a trap like i think that vegas is basically just saying like sure take the chargers go ahead like i think this could be the one where cleveland's like oh shit cleveland I'm with you. I'm 100% in agreement. Let's do it. All right, man. I think we have three unless we like the Seahawks.

No, we have three, and there's two I really like left. So we're on the right pack. We're on the right track. All right. Let's talk about Justin Fields and the Bears going to the Raiders. Raiders are laying five. Matt Nagy announced finally that Justin Fields is the quarterback in like the weirdest turn of events of all time.

Honestly, yeah. But that's not enough. All of the money is on the Raiders in this one. Is that where you are as well? I'm not anywhere in this game. I mean, I think I would take the Raiders. I think they're going to bounce back. Again, Fields in his first start now.

We saw the offense. Who's calling the plays, right? Is it Matt Nagy? Is it Bill Laz laser um he's now officially the starter right so the bears the raiders can prepare now whatnot raiders again short week but off off kind of a bad loss i don't think the raiders are that bad i just would stay away from this game i don't feel great about it i don't have a great feel either way i would take the the Raiders, but I'm pass on this one. The Bears, by the way, are 2-8 against the points, the last eight on the road.

It's not like the Raiders are great either. They're 3-7 at home against the line since last year. A lot of over. It feels like an over could be in play as well here. Yeah, pass is the verdict here. Let's save some time. It's 5-1⁄2 in the Super Contest. Moving on to your former team the new york giants uh they are seven point dogs at dallas uh in a very fun game

that game is going to be a blast yeah um giants of the play here right uh again getting seven points there have covered 11 of 12 on the road uh daniel jones has played well against the cowboys the past and by the way he's played well overall. He might have had his best month of the season so far that we've seen in his career. They're 12th in offensive DVOA. Now defensively, they're kind of a wreck. They're 27th.

And I really love the Cowboys' offense. I'm in love with their offense. And their defense has played much better. So the Cowboys are a better team, but the Giants have played much better on the road than they are a better team but the giants have played much better on the road than they have at home and this is like another seven points a divisional game against a quarterback and a running back barkley's kind of back healthy i was playing well um and the cowboys don't get a lot of pressure uh up front with without uh lawrence in the lineup uh the full

touchdown here give me the giant i think i think a bunch of money too is going to be in the cowboys i'd imagine right i mean that's just that's yeah all the money all the money's in the cowboys so i like the giants in this spot over me too or at a touchdown i should say all the money on dallas but the line still moved down this was seven and a half a lot of the week and tucks back under to seven yeah um the giants actually have a winning record in dallas in that stadium since it opened which is which is stunning um the thing about dallas to consider undefeated against the spread this year right that that's rare in general because usually vegas is going to get it about right half of the time it's extremely rare when it's dallas which is the most public team in sports

correct and they're so poorly coached that usually that means that they don't play up to their expectations quite a bit. So in addition to the Daniel Jones road quirk in his spread record, this, everything says take the giants, but whenever we bet on the giants, we lose. So everyone listening should probably take Dallas,

but I have a hundred percent taking the giants. I'm taking the giants here too. So we have our fourth one here as we're moving along. And let's get to the next game here. I know what our fifth is going to be. It's not going to be this. It's not going to be this. You already know because it's mind-blowing to me that this line.

So do you want to just – we can just talk about this game very quickly. Yeah, let's talk about the other AFC West game. It's the Niners at the Cardinals. The Cardinals. Yeah. Oh, sorry. It. NFC West, yeah. Yeah, oh, sorry. It's NFC West, obviously. The Cardinals laying five and a half in Trey Lance's first start.

That's official, right? Jimmy G is officially out. Oh, no, no. Actually, yeah. No, not officially out. That's right. He's not out. The undefeated Cardinals, man.

Do you like them laying the five and a half? No, I do not. But I don't like the Niners either. So, I mean, the Cardlos are so hot right now right so publicly hot just that was cliff kingsbury's first major win and nine years of coaching all right yeah that's right it's his first win the niners are desperate for a victory they're a veteran team they're prideful team um i would think the niner is here but without knowing the quarterback situation i can't really do it i would not take the Cardinals in this spot.

I think I would if I had to, just like in a pick-and-pull, take the Cardinals with Lance if I knew Lance was in. I just think he has such a learning curve against J.J. Watt. But it's not one I'm putting in the picks. But this is. Sunday night football. Bill's Chiefs. The Chiefs minus two and a half. I'm in. Go. I'm in.

The Chiefs minus two and a half. Of course they can't take Kansas City here. What is going on? And the best part about this, too, is we're getting it. It's now Thursday. We typically record Wednesday, but we're doing Thursday. And early in the week, like, all the money was on Buffalo. I'm like, what are we doing?

Guys, okay, the Chiefs offense right now is the best in the nfl by far listen to this they they have the least amount of drives the nfl least amount right and we'll get to that in a second they lead league in scoring percentage net yards per drive points per drive despite being second league in turnover percentage that's what they're doing they're turning the ball over right and last weekend they didn't turn the ball over, right? And last weekend, they didn't turn the ball over. Well, they did, I think, once, right? And they were unstoppable in this game. Guys, Buffalo's defense is, like, historically good, right? Like, DVOA, they're, like, third

best ever after four games. Who have they played? They played Davis Mills. They played, what, Jacoby Bursette. They played Big Ben and Taylor Heineke. They get the Chiefs now. Taylor Heineke, by far the best. Yes, by far theineke they get the chiefs by far the best yes by the they get the chiefs now like who who finally covered a game for once and i get it everyone's off of

them because they didn't cover and their defense is bad i their defense is terrible i get it the defense is bad but josh allen guys it's like 31st in in in uh in the pocket throws. I can find the exact number. I think he's 31st in clean pocket ranking or something like that, according to pro football folk. It's just, the offense is not as good in Buffalo as it's been in the past. They're playing terrible teams. It's the first team they played

that has a pulse all season. The Chiefs have played the Ravens, the Chargers. They played tough teams already. So the Browns, like their season, they know how to play in a game like this. It's the first time all year Buffalo's playing any opponent

that's just remotely good. I love the Chiefs here. Two and a half, sign me up under a field goal. Give it to me. At home, prime time. Like there's, this is I co-sign everything you said I'll save the listeners some time I will just say this this is the last time you will get

the Chiefs underpriced the rest of the season they're going to win this game maybe by a lot and then it will just be like it was the last season and a half where you can't ever bet on the Chiefs because they can't cover the number that's two points too high. Now's the chance. Buffalo is the Chiefs now. Go forth. Bet the Chiefs. Even if you lose it, it's the right play. The Bills' offensive DVOA is 17 right now.

17. They're one in defense because they played terrible offenses. This is not that terrible offense. The Chiefs' offensive line right now is killing it. They have five new guys, right? Josh Gordon activated get him play this weekend i don't know what they're gonna have for him that's gonna be tasty dude first play the game might be josh gordon run as fast as you can and we're gonna throw it to you like andy reed's gonna find a way

to get josh gordon in this game i am a thousand percent of the chiefs here i cannot believe that this number is where it's at. Yep, love it. Lock it in. All right, well let's talk about the Monday Night Game quickly. It's Colts at Ravens. It's up to seven now, which I'm on the

fade Wentz wagon, but not this weekend. I don't like this. Yeah, so there's too many other games we like. Is there any chance we would put Seattle in tonight over? Can you go over the five that we have? Yeah, so we have Carolina minus three and a half, Washington plus two and a half,

Browns plus one and a half, Giants plus seven, and Chiefs minus two and a half. I would say we should have the conversation if we wanted to put seattle in over carolina carolina um but i don't like that to you i just well the problem with that is that people might not listen to this podcast till friday it's like already like shit they're already owing one for the week i don't know man i like the play i just think that seattle russell wilson is a home dog on Thursday night.

It's just like automatic. Like you just have to take that. Well, maybe... Okay. Or we can give out six this week. We can give out... Matt is officially giving out Seattle plus two and a half. I'm giving out Seattle.

The show is giving out Carolina. The show is giving out Carolina just for this reason. McVay, by the way, eight-2 gets a spread off a road loss. On the road off a loss, by the way. Covering by at least 10 points. Yeah. How many times has he been a road favorite against Russell Wilson, though? Probably not that many.

Yeah. So, all right, guys. That's our five. Love the Chiefs, man. Love the Chiefs. All in on the Chiefs. Pushing the chips in, man. I'm in. All right, guys. As usual Pushing the chips in, man. I'm in.

All right, guys. As usual, we are powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. Please rate, review, subscribe. Really enjoy our interactions. Obviously, we need to get better at gambling. We will do that. Just stick with us.

We're not this bad, I promise you, if it's your first time listening. We'll get it right. I like our picks this week. Talk to you guys on Monday.