Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 8 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 7

Episode Date: October 21, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back with their thoughts on four games from the upcoming CFB slate. Geoff sticks with his strengths, picking two Pac 12 games and he's sharing his strategy for betting on USC (spoiler: don’t).Next Geoff and Matt go through every game of the upcoming NFL weekend and tell you the five best bets to place, highlighting a few games they’re definitely betting on (Falcons at Miami, Seattle vs. Saints) and a few they’re staying away from (Rams vs. Lions, Jets at Pats). Plus, could the Bengals win the AFC North? Can you trust the Eagles? And will the Titans pull off the upset at home again?Leave comments and questions on the episode for a chance to be featured in a mailbag segment! Browns fans, here’s your chance to get justice for Baker.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday october 21st i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you we're powered by the varsity podcast network and we are here to preview a weekend of college and nfl action and the lines are as stinky as they come especially in the nfl matt but guess what we had a win well not a winning week we won more than one zero games two and three last week we were on the worst dry spell of my career uh your career anyone's returned a bad time to gamble on football but I enjoyed doing it anyways buddy how are you dude we're crawling back that I gotta say the I was like ready to have a little bit of self-talk if the if the titans didn't cover on Monday night. That was one where it's just like all our principals, good team, home dog, overvalued favorite, road favorite.

That was what we were like. We have to pick this one. And I remember just thinking like while I was watching, I was like, if we lose this one, I'm going to lose my mind. But we did it. We did. And I wonder if we turned a corner. And the worst part about all these losses too we were texting early in the day on sunday is like there were no

other games that were like man gotta have that one like oh we screwed up and they put that one in there we're just like oh shit the browns just didn't show up like i don't want to tell you they didn't show up yeah in the 1 p.m. All the favorites covered in the one o'clock. Yeah. It ended up being eight and six. The favorites covering, I think, for the week, depending on a few numbers. So that was killing us. Like the early games were just murdering us.

And then at the end, eventually, you know, the Seahawks came through. We didn't have them. The Titans came through. Yeah, we had Pittsburgh. But like eventually the other teams, the underdogs started to cover. So I don't know what's going on. It's been a strange couple weeks, but it's a long season. It is a long season.

It's not even halfway done. And we have an extra week this year. That's right. But yes, the lines are not very fun this week. We'll talk about all that. First, let's get to college football. I'm actually good. I'm good at the Pac-12 conference.

Yeah, you're doing great. I know that. I don't know how many people are listening for the Pac college football. I'm actually good. I'm good at the Pac-12 conference. Yeah, you're doing great. I know that I don't have any people listening for the Pac-12 conference, but guess what? I'm good at this conference. I'm 23 and 14 on the year on my radio picks. I give out only a couple picks a week. I'm 14 and 7 on those picks on Twitter. I know the Pac-12.

And the first one I'm going to this weekend is Oregon is visiting UCLA. I'm taking Oregon here. Everyone's taking UCLA. I've seen across the board. Everyone's out on Oregon, and I get it. Oregon is one in five against the spread. They pretty much look like poop outside of playing Ohio State. But here's what Oregon is.

Matt, listen to this. Oregon, they're glory hounds, okay? They play much better in big football games. I'll give you some examples. Washington is our rival. Most years, Washington is ranked in the top 25. Under Mark Cristobal, Oregon has played Washington twice. They've beaten them and covered both games.

USC, played USC twice. Once in the Coliseum, once in the Coliseum weekend last year in the Pac-12 title game. Guess what? Two wins, right? Two big games, two wins, two covers. We played in the Pac-12 title game against Utah as an underdog. Win, covered. Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl as an underdog.

Win and cover. Ohio State, win and cover. Can I get my theme here right? We played Auburn in 2019. Didn't win the game, didn't cover, but that really wasn't the story of the game, right? We were up until the very last play of that game, essentially, Bo Nix with a touchdown. So Oregon plays big in big games. This is a a big game it is a college game day game college game day is going to los angeles and this will feel big for oregon half

their team is from southern california they're going to want to play at home they play well again at usc last couple years and it's two teams with very similar profiles run the football not quarter not good quarterbacks. They both can run, DTR and Anthony Brown, but they're not very good. They're rated 7th and 12th by Pro Football Focus. Anthony Brown, Oregon's quarterback, being 12th. Oregon's defense is just a little bit better. They're

6th in the country at explosive play rate. They do not give up explosive plays. They kind of let you bleed them, but then they make enough stops. They're 37th in yards, assuming a points per drive. UCLA specifically has lost to two teams this year, Fresno and Arizona State, who have competent quarterbacks because they bring a lot of pressure. They blitz a lot.

They blitz a lot. And teams take advantage of that. They know what they're doing. I don't really love Anthony Brown, Oregon's quarterback, but I think they get this done and find a way to get after UCLA. So give me Oregon here. Everyone's picking UCLA, Matt. You go anywhere, you look.

Everything in the Bruins here. I know my ducks pretty well. I'll take Oregon. Taking them on the money line or taking the two and a half? I'll take two and a half, but they're going to win this game. And the most frustrating part, I'm telling you right now. So Fox has said next week they're taking whatever game, whoever wins this game, UCLA or Oregon,

they're taking them in the national slot on October 30th. Oregon plays Colorado, who's awful. UCLA plays Utah. There's a distinct scenario where Oregon wins this game by 10 this weekend and then beats Colorado by like four at home. And it's just going to be the most maddening thing of all time. So give me the Ducks here. I'll take them on the money.

I'll take them plus two and a half, but they win this game outright in my opinion. I got Notre Dame minus seven hosting USC. Both teams off a bye. I don't have many gambling principles in college football. One of them that I do have is fade USC anytime they play a team with a pulse. People will say, hey, Notre Dame can't rush the football. Notre Dame's offensive line is not very good this year.

Well, let's see. In Utah's three losses, they allowed 180 rushing yards to Utah most of the season. Oregon State, they allowed 322 rushing yards. And Stanford, who's 129th in rushing, they allowed 141 rushing yards to Stanford. USC just can't stop anyone

who has a pulse on offense. And Notre Dame has a pulse. Now, it might be a faint pulse. We don't know who's playing quarterback, right? Jack Cohen? It's not great. But on the flip side, USC's offense, guys, is going to get manhandled by Notre Dame. Anytime they play physical defense, they are stuck in the mud. They have one answer. That's Drake London.

He's fantastic. Take him away. The offense is dead in the water. So give me the Irish here, minus seven. I don't know if I take it over seven, Matt. I got six and a half, but I'll take the seven here. Looks like this opened at three. Lots and lots have been pouring in on notre dame so i think uh you're getting you're getting good value in usc at plus seven now yeah i'm not still not taking usc um there's no chance in hell

you need me to usc this game oklahoma state iowa is really interesting so oklahoma state has won three straight games um against ranked opponents. And they're going to Iowa State and they're getting seven points. Kind of like the standard home line, right? Oklahoma State, we know off a win against Texas last week. And you can look at that and say, hey,

they might be emotionally down for this game. We don't know where their heads will be. But really for me, I'm taking Oklahoma State slightly here, and I'll tell you why. Their defense is outstanding. They have been great all season, and they can rely on that defense a lot on road games, right?

When things kind of get tough, they turn to their defense. They allowed one yard for most of the fourth quarter against Texas. And Iowa State's quarterback, Brock Purdy, has struggled when facing any sort of defense that can kind of give him a little bit of trouble. And Oklahoma State can definitely do that. The concern here for me is Oklahoma State's offense with Spencer at quarterback. They just like, you know, he completed 58% of passes, six touchdowns, five interceptions.

It just worries me. I mean, Iowa State, we know defensively, is still pretty good, even though offensively they're having their issues. But I still will roll with the Pokes here. Another big road game. Seven points is a lot for a team that can play good defense. I'll go with the Pokes here. The Sharps are all over Iowa State.

The public is mostly on Oklahoma State here. But it doesn't matter. Sometimes the public wins. Shocking. Yeah, I mean, the analytics guys have this at like 10. Iowa State favored by 10. That's why I think they're still on Iowa State here. Last one for me.

Clemson is visiting Pittsburgh. Clemson does not cover the spread. They're 0-6 so far this season. Because they can't move the ball to offense. DJ Ungola, I can't remember his name. I always pronounce it wrong. I always screw it up. He's averaging 4.5 adjusted air yards per pass attempt.

That's atrocious. Against man coverage, he's only averaging 3.9, excuse me, 3.8 yards per attempt. Pittsburgh's defense, guys, is actually low-key pretty good this year. They're fifth in country in three and out percentage. They're sixth in success rate. They're 15th in points per drive. They're eighth in yards per drive.

It's Pittsburgh's defense. I mean, rushing success, seventh. They're a really good defense. They get a ton of pressure. They're 19th in country in pressure rate. They're 6th in sack rate. I just think their defense will carry this game because Clemson cannot score. And offensively, Kenny Pickett can play near 70% of passes,

21 touchdowns, one interception. Clemson's defense is still good, but this game is going to be 17-7. Clemson just can't score enough in this game. So I will take, again, I assume a public play, taking the Panthers at home minus the three against Clemson. What did you think of those rumors about Sweeney going to LSU? Did you hear about those? I can't imagine that.

I think Clemson still, it's easier to win a championship in the ACC than it is the SEC. They're already making so much money. I think if he goes back to SEC, it's only for's easier to win a championship in the acc than is the the you know the sec he's already making so much money i think if he goes back to sec it's only for nick saban's job because he's a former he went to alabama so i i don't i think he's not in that job no interesting i like the like death valley death valley thing that was uh it was an interesting way to frame that one but yeah i don't know uh it's he's allowed to have one bad year right like it happens but not everyone can be yeah yeah well yeah one bit yeah um there's no problem with that yeah all right should we move to uh to the pros oh god i guess all right our our season record is

nine don't we it's not even point it's not even worth it but we were better last week than we were the last two weeks so with three and twelve last three weeks brutal all right let's get to it well speaking of ugly the denver broncos are headed to cleveland uh tomorrow as of tape time thursday night case keenum is starting so this line has moved quite bit. It's now at the Browns favored by two. I know what you bet on this before that news, but I'm curious where you stand now with this number.

Yeah, today I was looking at numbers because I spend typically Tuesday doing a lot of college football stuff and Wednesday is when I start getting to my NFL stuff. And so I was like, oh, shit, the Broncos are still getting three and a half. I'll take the three and a half. Now it's obviously at two. I'm talking about the money line. This is before the Baker Mayfield news came out.

The Browns are not only without Baker Mayfield. They're without both their running backs. They're without maybe both their offensive tackles again. They're without maybe their two best wide receivers. They are possibly without some defensive players as well. One of their rookie linebackers is out. Clowney's been beat up lately. Some of their corners have been

beat up. They're just really beat to shit right now. It feels like one of those years where it's like it's just not their year. I was talking about it on the podcast Tuesday, disappointing their season, but at plus two, do we still take Denver here?

I don't know. I feel like it's seven. You know, obviously it's seven. This would have been easy even at three, but at two, I mean, we're basically betting on them to win the game.

Right. And is it, the thing about it is it's very obvious to pick Denver here. Right. Like, is it one of those where we're thinking too much about this? Like, fuck it,

take Denver. We know they're the best, but they're not a good team though. And the thing is like, if there, if it was a better team, I'd be all over it. But,

but Denver is 22nd DVOA. Like they're not that good of a team right now. I know. Well, a few things, a few things are kind of like, jump out to me. The first is like,

this is the trends all say here to take Denver. They're 60 percent against the spread after a loss under Fangio. They're 60 percent ish as a road dog under Fangio against the spread. But and they're a very good rush defense. They're number four against the rush in terms of yards per carry this year. Denver's D. But I just have this feeling Cleveland wins. It's not real analysis. It just feels like they kind of can't lose this.

They can't go to three and four. You know, Case Keenum is in there. Case Keenum is 58% against the spread in his career. Just for reference, Aaron Rodgers is 59%. He's always been good. But Bridgewater is also really good. And he's best on the road as an underdog. So there's just this thing.

By the way, he's 23-4 against the spread on the road. Man, that's insane. Fangio, I think you used this as well. This is from our friend Chris Rabon, as usual. He has a lot of these nuggets on the Action Network app. Fangio's 12-5 against the spread as a dog off a loss. Yeah, I mean, that's uh that's impressive i i guess it's denver still um but you've we've missed the number uh you know it's

not and like cleveland can't lose that like they can't go to you know baltimore could be what six and one after this like that you know if they're three and four in that division with cincy and pittsburgh like they they could be fourth in the division. Like, that's crazy. I don't I don't know. This is stay away from me. I would have liked it at three and a half also. Yeah, I'm with you here.

I think we just stay away from this and see if we can find some other value. If we come back to the end of this and we're like, oh, yeah, then we'll come back and look at this again. But I'm kind of with you here where I just I can't do it at this number. Yeah, everyone likes Denver too much. It's scary. All right, let's let's move to one that we've gone back and forth on text this week. It's the Bengals at Baltimore. Baltimore lands six and a half right now.

Man, what a what an important game here. I feel like we'll learn something from this. Yeah. So I really like the Ravens here, but there's one specific concern I have, and this is where I think sometimes kind of my X and O's brain takes over because this line open with the Bengals getting 10 points. So it's down to six and a half. So you're getting a ton of value here on Baltimore if you want Baltimore.

And my concern is that we're seeing Baltimore obviously riding a high. And at some point, that high comes down. And it could be against a Bengals team that's been much better on defense. This season, they're fifth in DVOA on defense. And a Bengals team that is able to hit deep passes at a high rate and against the Ravens defense with how much they pressure and stay in man coverage, that's a really good way to beat them. And again, all the hype is on Baltimore right now. I don't feel great about this one.

I thought I would. I thought for sure. We talked about it even Monday. I'm going to pound on the Ravens here but there there there is there is value in this line because of it coming down three and a half points yeah I've seen this kind of bounce around at six I think I would feel a little bit better about Baltimore that so Zach Taylor's never beaten the Ravens Lamar Jackson's never lost to the Bengals that I think Baltimore, you know, I kind of can't tell with them, right? Like last week they absolutely smoked the chargers.

There's a, certainly a case to be made that they're the best team in the league now, right now, um, as a result of that. But they also almost lost to the lions. They've had like, you know, they had a couple of strange games at Kansas city game. The Colts game was sort of a weird game. Like I don't really know what they are.

So there's part of me that's like, Hey, divisional game, like just take Joe Burrow and spend almost a touchdown. But like, this could also just be an ass kicking. Like there is a world where, you know,

the Ravens just come in here and the Bengals who are riding high off of, you know, beating the lions last week are a little bit overvalued. So I'm kind of split down the middle. I don't really know. That's what I'm worried about. Oddly, Baltimore's worse at home against the spread under Harbaugh than on the road.

Lamar Jackson's better on the road against the spread. There's something just doesn't feel right about this one. We can stay away from it now. Yeah. I was kind of hoping you'd talk me into Baltimore, but just something feels off. I mean, my first initial impression was Baltimore. I'm going to have it in my maybes.

We can come back to it at some point. Because, again, I think we're not going to be able to get to five. And we're going to just have to kind of throw shit against the wall here. Yeah. This is a good teaser game. If you want to move the Ravens down from six and a half to half a point, you know, this, this year really, I mean, this week I should say is very, you tell Vegas was tired of getting beat on teasers and went with a bunch of

lines here that are hard to tease, especially as we get into some of the big favorites. But Baltimore wouldn't be my tease option this week. so i'm saying if you would like to play them maybe the tease is the better way to go yeah that makes sense though i don't i don't see baltimore losing this but yeah that's that's a good way to play it um next up is my hideous washington football team at green bay this number keeps moving every Every time I look, it's different. Currently, I'm seeing it at 8.5 for Green Bay. 8, 8.5.

It was up to 9.5. Man, what do you think? So this is going to be fun to talk about because my original thought was Washington. You text me and was like, F you. We're taking Green Bay. My team's lifeless. I think you're now back to Washington. I mean, this is just a straight, like, Packers have kind of looked lethargic at times this year.

Washington has to win. Like, they have to play well. They haven't played well in a couple weeks. And you can make the argument that they're just what they are, right? They're just not going to be good. But I don't know, man. This is a lot of points for a Green Bay defense that is not very good. But again, Kansas City's defense wasn't any good, and Washington got shut out in the second half.

And they played for too many field goals. They're too conservative now. And I would feel better laying it on the Packers. But, I mean, you still get eight points, eight and a half with a Washington team. That's not bad enough to be that big of an underdog here. Yeah, that's kind of where I net it out. Here's the thing. Green Bay plays Arizona next.

They play them on a short week at Arizona on Thursday. The Packers just came off that that great road win against uh the bears this is not if you look at the two teams coming into this this is washington's life like this is it they're not going to win this game anyway but this is heineke playing for a chance to basically extend his run as a starter maybe ever because when Fitzpatrick is isn't too far away from coming back most likely uh Washington is just at a low like you saw what happened last week with the Sean Taylor thing it was just like a disaster uh this is like what Ron Rivera's tends to be good at is when the adversity is really high his teams tend to sort of overperform yeah I think that

they're going to show up and this is a line that basically I think that they're going to show up. And this is a line that basically says, hey, they're not going to show up. And Green Bay is just going to walk all over them. Green Bay has been great. If I'm not mistaken, they're five and one against the spread this season. So they're probably a little bit overvalued coming home. They just need to win this game and get out of it. We've seen this happen with Rodgers all the time where they just sort of skate. Maybe it's like a last possession.

If you can get eight and a half, nine, I think you just have to take Washington and hold your nose. Like I just, I think that's sort of where I am. I'm with you. A very, a very public Packers team here who's been covering a lot against the spread and they have like last week was not a pretty game for them either, right?

So I'm, I'm, I'm good with holding my nose here and just, and just doing it. The Shar'm going with holding my nose here and just doing it. The Sharps are with us. One other thing, too. Big discrepancy. There are 10 Packers, just something to note here, 10 and 6 against the spread, laying 7.5 to 12.5 at home over the past seven years. Very specific.

I did that. It's kind of a silly number, but I'm throwing it out there because it's a number I got. I'm going with Washington here. Washington, I mean, we're going to washington here washington i mean we're going to talk about uh let me see what we're actually talking about the dolphins next it's funny washington and the dolphins both last year were incredible against the spread teams because of the strength of their coaching staff and this year they just can't cover anything and ryan fitzpatrick oddly is sort of the tie between them but I do sort of wonder like is this going to sort

of turn around soon and maybe that's a good way to segue to this Falcons Dolphins game which no one is going to watch the Falcons are favored by two and a half points on the road in Miami Miami no bye week which they apparently opted for after the London game um why don't you explain to people why we have to bet this? Well, because Atlanta is not very good. And they're off a buy. I get that. But the Dolphins, to me, are definitely the play here.

Their season is, I mean, if they lose this game, and their season might be done already, but they lose this game, that's it. There is no, I mean, there's changes happening, people losing jobs. Yep. I'm just – I am worried about Atlanta off a bye. But Atlanta, guys, is 32nd in overall DVOA.

Like, they're 32nd on special teams. They're 32nd – to be 30th on defense, 20th on – I mean, they're just not – they're not good. And, again, they're playing outside off a bye. I just – I got – I just – I feel good taking the Dolphins. I don't really have a greater reason than that. Yeah. I think that everyone is just so out on them. It's like you lose to Jacksonville.

Now, all of a sudden they're not favored at home against Atlanta. Like a week ago, this was probably what? Two or three for Miami. Yeah. I'm going to imagine. I have a fun look at headlines. Yeah. I imagine Miami is favored by three. Yeah. I think it's interesting. what two or three for miami um yeah i would i would imagine i'd probably find look ahead lines yeah i'm imagining miami's favorite by three yeah i think it's interesting they the dolphins apparently requested to not have a bye week they're the first team after the first time since

the 2016 colts who won their next game actually when they went back to andy with no bye uh they had andrew luck though not the dolphins are favored favorite by two and a half on the look ahead? Yeah. So I think this is, I mean, that's a ridiculous swing for, you know, not that much happened. They had a bad game. Flores made a terrible decision to call that timeout at the end of the game. But I think Miami's probably the better team all around if Tua can just not completely destroy us.

Yeah, let's do, I'm good with that. Let's put the Finns in here. I know it sucks. God. It's terrible. These games are really tough this week. Yeah. Another gross one is the Jets at the Pats.

Yeah. The Pats are laying seven right now. These two teams have already played. It was already hideous. Do we want any piece of this one? No, this is just a teaser option for New England. You put New England down at one and let it ride. I want no part of this game.

None. I feel like we can spend time doing other stuff. New England's just not covering at the same rate. They're too conservative. They're not making enough plays to win these games. Obviously, it wasn't really their fault they lost that game but um i'm i'm out out out on new england same here a couple of fun things just as just for us to laugh at new england oh and four in foxborough this year oh and four uh pats are one and four against the spread this year i mean this belichick

no brady thing is starting to really get out of control i mean that is like i mean his against the spread record with brady is insane um and rookies oh and 23 straight up going into new england against belichick so uh yeah teaser teaser makes sense here um good stats terrible game speaking of terrible games the panthers the je Jeff Schwartz bowl, the Panthers are going to the giants. Uh, the giants are plus three at home. Do we dare?

Do we dare do what side? I guess I was assuming the giants, but I mean, we're not right. The giants are five and 12, uh, against spread at MetLife stadium. That, that place is going to be a freaking cemetery. It's going to be dead. They're without Saquon. We know that, right? Their left tackle went on injured reserve.

They've had two other linemen on injured reserve so far this year. Tony and Galladay. Defensively, yeah, Galladay may or may not play. Defensively, they're a complete wreck as well. Carolina's dropped to 25th in DVLA, by the way. It's pretty funny. They jump pretty fast. They're not good.

They're just not good. I think the play here would be taking the Panthers minus the three. But I don't want to do it. But I'm saying, like, I think that – I actually don't think that's a terrible wager. The Giants are just – dude, they're lifeless, buddy. They're absolutely lifeless. And that – there's a reason why they don't play well at home it's

because that place is so sterile it's dead in there and the panthers obviously kind of need a feeling like they're gonna pressure the shit out of out of carolina i mean out of the new york the giants just won't be able to protect anything i would play the panthers here i would but i don't know if that's our best play of the week yeah oh god let's make it a maybe because the pickings are so slim but i i mean man i don't like that at all i just i mean you in any you want to take the giants here if you're taking a side just based on the you know home dog getting three yeah but like good lord that is ugly can we talk about a good game i think it's time to talk about a good game the chiefs are going to tennessee i looked at this line and actually misread it for like a day because i was like oh that makes sense but i

read it wrong the chiefs are favored by five and a half in tennessee i just i just read it as the titans were favored and that didn't seem crazy to me. But the Chiefs are favored by 5.5 in Tennessee. I don't know how you don't take the Titans here. What is this line? What am I missing? It's very confusing. It opened at 3-2 and I think people just

smashed the Chiefs because they won that game this past weekend in Washington. I think you have to play Tennessee here, right? Like, I don't really – there's no other choice. I mean, I don't – I mean, the Chiefs are going to win this game, but, like, they can't stop the run. They can't do anything on defense.

I mean, they're better, but they – dude, I mean, unless the thought is, like, they're going to win this game 42 31 I guess it's possible Tennessee can't stop anyone either but this just doesn't feel right to me they both have bad D I mean the over is probably the play here if you're if you're wager on this game

Kansas defense second second I mean they're still good defense but I I'm I don't know Tennessee's 22nd 23rd DVO a second. I mean, they're still good defense. But I'm, I don't know. Tennessee's 22nd, 23rd in DVOA, 28th on defense. Not good on special teams. You got to take Tennessee, though. I mean, as a home dog, I get that they just had it.

They're coming off the short week. I get that they just had a big emotional win. But the bets didn't go that way. They went the other way. I think that people are just so eager to bet on Kansas City again, the public. They're like, all right, they finally covered. They beat a team. You know, Washington sucked last week.

They beat Taylor Heineke. Awesome. Personally, I like the Chiefs are giving up five yards of carry. The games where they've really struggled have been against teams that can run uh baltimore among them cleveland's they won but it was tight uh the chargers ran all over them they are going to get annihilated by derrick henry but the the thing is the script on how teams have beaten kansas city in the past is just you limit their explosive plays obviously and you hold the ball you keep their offense off the field and you kind of frustrate them and then then Mahomes starts to press, and then that's when the mistakes come.

So I think that's what's going to happen here. They're just going to pound the ball. And by the way, this is the one two-week window where Julio Jones is going to be healthy. He made a real impact last week. The Titans aren't going to be playing much better than this, and the Chiefs, they still haven't covered hardly any games in over a year. So it's got to be Tennessee

here's the thing I worry about if the Chiefs don't turn the ball over because they have they've had like the worst turnover luck of any of any team this year if they have the ball seven or eight times are they going to be without a score like they're going to score

every single drive Tennessee if Tennessee has like two drives they don gonna score every single drive tennessee if tennessee has like two drives they don't score i mean or organ uh chiefs defense allowed seven points to buffalo in the second half and zero to washington the second half like they're playing a little bit better they're not good against the run i'm just this the thing about this matt we've talked about this for a while when the line seems this fishy it's like yeah i mean i'm fine putting tennessee in there i guess i'd rather just maybe put the maybes for now because i just huh i mean maybe i'm just so i don't know man maybe i'm just overthinking it too much i think i mean this is probably my favorite one um but i

mean yeah it's it's still it's no fun to bet against Kansas City, but. We have a lot of we don't have much. Yeah, we don't. Your favorite one typically wins every week, too. So we'll put this on the high. Maybe so put it in the yes for now. All right. Let's do that because we're about to step into a minefield here. Lions at Rams, the golf Stafford revenge game.

This line has moved a lot. So I'm going to just double check what the latest is. I see it now at 15.5 for LA. What do you think? I would take the Rams. The Lions, we bet them last week. I don't know how they gave up on their season. They're being called out by their head coach, Jared Goff. I mean, we can't. I don't think we can play this,

but the Rams should beat the shit out of this Lions team. Should. Yeah. I mean, they will, but they should. I actually think the extra point here really matters. Teams getting 15.5 actually have historically winning against the spread record, I think just situationally. Reminder last year the Rams lost straight up as a 17 and a half point home favorite to the Jets.

They're not going to lose this game. But as our production notes here, this is good on Hank. The Rams are coming off their biggest loss of the season. The Lions are coming off their biggest win of the season. The Lions are coming off their biggest loss. So we're getting these two teams a high watermark. This is such a strange stretch for the Rams. They played the Giants last week, the Lions this week, and the Texans next week.

It's like, what a strange stretch for a Super Bowl contender who was in the playoffs last year. They're not going to sleep through this game, but it's just a big number. And I get that every week i'm like we should take the lions but like the lions fight they're not gonna you know they could be down by 30 and still start you know golf's still gonna throw except last week yeah except last week um oh i'm definitely not playing the lions here but i'm finally not playing the rams either well yeah because this was the one of i i didn't mind the Lions here, which is – Really?

Yeah, it's terrible, but – Really? Yeah. Oh, man. 15 and a half, Jeff. I'm surprised. Like, that's a lot. Dude, they're not –

Dude, I thought – They were at home last week in the Spangles boat race. The only thing you can think of is that the Rams played down just because they just – You know, there's the energy and the crowd's not really there. And there's a little bit of like a letdown. But like, there's no like revenge. It's not a revenge.

Jerry Goff, he freaking sucks. There's no revenge factor. It's not good enough to have a revenge factor. Yeah. So Lions get, as you mentioned, at the Texans next. I mean, the Rams are like, there's a look ahead part to this game. I don't feel very comfortable with the Rams at 15,

but I think that's just a lot of points. And that's not what we do on this podcast. Yeah. Oh, man, we're running out of games here, but I, maybe you can talk me into it later. All right. A tighter spread, but a game that's hard to read is Philly going to Vegas. Vegas is just a three-point favorite here.

Two teams I'm having a hard time getting a handle on. What do you think? Same here. I really don't believe in the Eagles. And so I think I would stay away from this because I think a lot of people are on Vegas this week after their coach. They had a good showing without John Gruden. They ran a play action pass a lot more than they had in previous games,

which is, which is really helpful. And again, I don't think the Eagles are very good, but I don't really have a thought on this game more than like the Eagles aren't very good. And I don't know if Vegas is that good either. So I'm just, I'd stay away. Yeah. I would lean Vegas, but they haven't covered at home as a favorite yet. I think they're getting a lot of credit for just winning a game last week against denver so i something's off with this but i don't like philly at all um so yeah that that's a pass

geez that one o'clock window is gonna be tough let's do the next game because there's a little bit of a breaking news about uh a quarterback on one of the teams that's next. Oh, interesting. Okay, the Houston Texans at Arizona. We are seeing 17 and a half right now as we are taping this, but if it's what I think it is, it might move. John McClain, who covers the Houston Texans, he's been there for 45 years.

Tweeted out, Texans and Dolphins could have a Deshaun Watson deal done this week. Whoa. Yeah. Obviously doesn't affect this game at all. It just happened to be the game we're talking about. Whoa. Wow.

That would obviously change the way we feel about Miami. But nonetheless, nonetheless, there's no play in this game. So we don't have to talk much about this game. I thought you were going to say to Rod Taylor is coming back. And then I was going to say, let's hammer the Texans. I'll tell you what, if Toronto is coming back, I will gladly throw out one game we have on this and put Houston here.

Plus 17 and a half. I would gladly do that. But until he plays, I'm not doing that. But I, if Toronto was here at 17 and a half, Matt, I that but until he plays i'm not doing that but i i if toronto was here at 17 and a half matt i'm with you let's get after it but he's not right now jeff can i please make the case for taking 17 and a half can i please can i just can i just make it okay go ahead uh as a home favorite under Kingsbury, the Cardinals are three and six against spread. From what I can tell, it's hard to research this. Teams that are getting 17 and a half against the spread. They are. They've never lost from the examples that I've seen.

It's a good spot to be in. I think they actually there's a couple examples, including the Rams last year against the Jets, where that team straight up one. I just don't think that the Cardinals are going to be up for this one. Think about like so they have to win by 20, essentially. Like, is that going to is how likely is that? I don't know. In a game of two professional teams, I just think that it's funny. It's like after last week, there were like four of those games last week.

Yeah. That's why these lines are so high. No, no, you're right. I, I have, I probably,

I, you know, by the end of this, I actually have a way to, to get some of these, uh, numbers. I probably can find that number,

but I know by the end of this thing, you're a texture guy. No, no, no, no, no. I have, I'm on this website. I're a texture guy. No, no, no. I'm on this website. I have access to it. I'm going to figure out where the betting stats are. So you are – oh, here it is right here. So you're good.

No matter who's quarterback, you're at – you're fine with that number. Yeah, I mean, traditionally, Kingsbury's teams as a favorite have not been good. This is not a game, again, where Arizona is like, Arizona just needs to win this. This just has the feeling of like, huh, Arizona's only up by seven with eight minutes left. So the range is like 17 to what, 17 and a half, you said? 17 and a half, yeah. I did the 17, 17 and a half. Let's do a...

And reminder, the Cardinals are playing the Packers on Thursday season. Oh, they are. Oh, I kind of like that. Yeah. So let's do like what the last like 10 years. Let's do like 20 2010 to 2021. Let's do it. It's 11 years. I'm kind of curious what

I can get here. Let's see if it's no results. Cover the spread. Let's see here here 17 to 24 why there's not results yeah i think i know what site you're on it's like you have to like be like an excel phd it's a piece through this data there were a couple examples uh of teams that were 17 and a half point dogs that won straight up it's some of the biggest upsets it's for whatever reason like some of the biggest straight up upsets in nfl history have been at this number that doesn't mean i think the texans are winning this game um so like yeah so like we've seen in last year the jets in

la one in uh they won here i'm kind of curious here but okay so here's okay here's the full list the last 10 years there's not many games over i said 1724 i mean like yeah so um it looks like we have uh yeah in 2018 the bangles covered in 2020 last year that the broncos that was that game where they didn't have any quarterbacks yeah yeah this year the hughes the tex Texas did not cover in Buffalo, if you recall. In 2019, the Dolphins beat New England outright. A lot of these are Dolphins games. 2019, the Dolphins got their ass kicked. 2019, again, Dolphins covered against Buffalo.

God, there's so many Dolphins. Jeez, it's like Dolphins and Jets. Yeah. Dolphins, again, got their ass kicked by New england in 2019 that was that week you know that was that week two when they then there's there's five times the jets have had this been been underdog between 17 and 24 points uh since 2010 and um excuse me this is only since 2015 because they don't have details uh after that and they covered in one two three you know three two of the three games this is such it's just a fucking terrible segment terrible sample size but i'll i mean the other thing

about the texans we've spent way too much time on this game but the other thing about the texans is like they're those dolphins teams were like all rookies and undrafted guys and tanking teams like this is a team that's got like a it's probably one of the older teams in the league like they're gonna show up i i just think that you could we're we might lose by 17 but that's fine all right fuck it sorry for my language i mean that's what it requires plus 17.5 okay well i i liked i liked the best angle you said was cardinals on a short week at green bay the next week. Green Bay's coming to them. Yeah, so it's coming to them. But that's the Green Bay angle too.

Yeah, against Washington. It's like that's probably the game's like first seed in the NFC is going to be that game. So, you know, this is just get through it. Great game here. Sort of Chicago at Tampa. Not a great game at all. Just trying to get off of that last game.

Tampa's laying 12 and a half rematch of the fifth down game from last year. Yeah. Tampa's not been good against the spread this year. They are. They're 6-1, their last seven as a host. Two and four against the spread this season, though. Yeah, I don't want to play Chicago here, but I don't want to play Tampa either. So I guess we'll just pass on this game. I don't like this game at all. Yeah, I don't want to play chicago here but i don't want to play tampa either so i guess we're just passing this game i don't like this game at all yeah i don't i don't

there's another one where they try not to get people to tease it right yeah because they're they're taking a bath on these big teases um all right we're into the sunday night window here maybe we have a game here uh the colts are plus four and a half at San Francisco. Jimmy G looks like he's going to play. Trey Lance did not practice. Jimmy G did. Do you have a lean? I mean, I don't want to take Indianapolis, but I feel like everyone's taking Indianapolis.

I really don't want to. I mean, you hate Carson Wentz, but the Col like everyone's taking Indianapolis. I really don't want to. I mean, you hate Carson Wentz, but the Colts have had a brutal schedule. I know their record's not good, but they've had a tough schedule. They're four and two against the spread. San Francisco's one and four against the spread. They're one of those teams that came in with such high expectations, and they just haven't looked that good. I'm fine with Indy here.

It's a good number. I think this will be a close game. We don't know what the deal is with the quarterbacks in san francisco um the colts can run the ball though they can you know keep this close i don't think it's four and a half or four here four and a half um oh jeez i'm looking at i'm looking at our list here and it's just it's making me so depressed oh jeez I'm looking at physical pain look at these I have to root for the Texans

to cover 17 and a half to Otungo Vailoa and so far Taylor Heineke oh god and now in the Monday Night Football game I'm going to have to root for fucking Geno Smith. This is what you have to do. Do you want to put a pin in this and go to Monday night? Because that's one where I think we have to make a play.

Yeah, we have to bet on Seattle. Yeah, so the Saints are laying four and a half as road favorites in Seattle. I think this is one we just have to put in and just figure out what our other four are. I'm I'm seeing fives. I I'll take five. Let's take the five. We need all the help we can get.

Gino has covered his last six against the spread. Pete Carroll, 17 and eight against the spread as a underdog of plus four or more. Got to do it. Yeah. You have to do it. Even though the saints look like they're healthier but i i think this is like this is seattle season right in this game um and uh

i'm i'm with you here you just have to suck it up and do it it's that simple in this game i dude i'm just i'm like ill thinking about these picks they're bad they're really bad so far i'm sorry for my my angst everyone but it's just it's just brutal so far we have washington plus eight and a half miami plus two and a half houston plus 17 and a half seattle plus five we have i mean dude let's take the goddamn titans, let's get one team in the mix there. Yeah, that's right. I mean, the other ones that were in contention were the Panthers, three-point road faves.

Denver tomorrow, Baltimore minus six and a half, Carolina minus three, LA minus 15, Indy plus four and a half. I feel like Indy's better than Tennessee. Let's get the Rams out of there. We're not laying 15. No, I know. Indy's better than Tennessee, though, because, I mean, there's a thing.

I can envision. Tennessee's at home, though. I can envision the Chiefs winning that game 41-34. I can't envision the Niners going to beat the Colts on more than a field goal. Off a bye. That's their home. Jimmy G is undefeated on Sunday night football. I don't know.

Well, let's work backwards. We're definitely going to include Seattle, right? Who? Seattle plus five. Our four are Washington eight and a half, Miami plus two and a half, Houston plus 17 and a half, and Seattle plus five. Those are the. Our four are Washington, eight and a half. Miami plus two and a half. Houston plus 17 and a half. And Seattle plus five.

Those are the four that are in. Okay. So, then we have one spot for Tennessee, Baltimore. Or Indy, probably. Or Indy. Or Indy. If Tyra Taylor plays, that's a really good number for Tennessee. I mean, for Houston, by the way.

I know. I mean, it's just a good number anyway. Oh, geez. Okay. We're scared of the Ravens. I feel like we got to lose the Ravens. Okay. We'll go with the Ravens.

It's a visual game. I mean, is it as simple as just taking Denver tomorrow night? To be exposed to Thursday and Monday. I know. You know, we did Sunday and Monday Monday last Sunday night and Monday night. Okay. So we're throwing Carolina minus three out, even though I think that is probably the best play, but.

Looks like Toronto is not playing apparently, by the way. Oh, well, that doesn't make me feel any better, but. No. So it's Tennessee or. Or Indy, right? Or Indy. I meanennessee is at home they just they just thrash the bills on the road aren't you worried about like aren't you just worried about that that part of it like here's my thing with the case he doesn't cover though yeah i know but

here's the thing with the chiefs again i mean they're they're all self-inflicted wounds and if they're able to just not do stupid shit on offense, they're going to score 40 points in this game. And Tennessee has tried this run the ball against Kansas City. It has just not worked for them quite like we thought it would. I don't know. I think you're right, though. Tennessee is the right play here.

Yeah. Rather than Carson Wentz on the road. Like, come on. All right, we'll do Tennessee. I think everyone psychologically is so afraid to lose to Pat Mahomes because you sit there and you're watching and you're like, fuck, why did I do this? I root for the Chiefs. I don't want to have to be like,

oh, well, the Chiefs win by less than five. What kind of gambler are you? We're going to be rooting for the Dolphins against the Falcons. You can do some math. Calm down. what kind of gambler are you so we're gonna be ready for the Dolphins against the Falcons you can do some math calm down so to recap to recap everyone Jeff's head is in his hands and he looks

so sad like this is what this is what it takes you have to have weeks like this where you go like please kick a field goal Davis Mills like this is what it takes. I was about to say, we're going to definitely go 5-0 this week. Just because I just feel so ill about these folks. Well, let's call down the definitely anything.

Let's call down that. Okay. So Washington, because like, oh, just Washington plus 8.5. Miami plus 2.5. Do you feel great about, you feel good about that one, right? I mean, that's just sound betting. Like, I don't feel good about it at all. It sounds fucking terrible, Jeff.

Would Miami or Indy be better, you think? Miami, right? Yeah. Yeah. Atlanta is a road favorite. Come on. We got to bet whoever they're playing. I don't care.

It could be the 08 Lions. Houston plus 17 and a half. Yep. Seattle plus five and Tennessee plus... So we're betting on Taylor Heineke. Just plus 5. And Tennessee plus... So we're betting on Taylor Heineke. Just to recap. Taylor Heineke. Against Aaron Rodgers.

Tua Tongo-Vailoa. Against my right. Davis Mills. Against MVP. Geno Smith. And Ryan Tannehill. Those are the quarterbacks we're betting on this week. I think even better, we're going against...

We're also going against... Rodgers, Mahomes, Kyler Murray. Three MVP candidates. Oh, Jesus. All right, guys. Welcome. I'm glad you listened to our show today, everybody. I mean, yeah.

Honestly, this will either be a good education of what it's like to win bets or like why we should just have bet on the uh rams minus 15 we'll see it's just i'm like i'm in physical i'm gonna go to the doctor i'm in physical pain right now this is just the worst it's the worst and you're exactly right we're gonna be sitting there like oh my god i have a kid's party this weekend on Sunday. I told my wife I might not go. I'm definitely going to go. It's like a miss all this crap.

Yeah. Just miss it. Oh, geez. All right, everyone. How about the podcast network? I'm sure they're pumped about this.

I've had this show. I've been told the algorithm wants you to comment on my podcast and give reviews on iTunes. So please, if you listen as far, just shoot, just shoot me. I would love to do like a sort of mailbag or just take your questions based off of of comments left um on on um on the podcast if you give me enough comments i will do so but right now i don't have enough so uh please leave me a review and a comment i'd really appreciate that and we can't do any worse. So, yeah, go fighting Davis Mills.

Let's go, Davis. Let's go, Taylor Heineke and Geno Smith. It's our guys. All right, guys. Have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to everyone later.