Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week 9 Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 9

Episode Date: October 28, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back to give you their picks for the upcoming week of football. Geoff makes his picks on four of the biggest CFB games this weekend (Michigan at Michigan State, Ohio State at Penn State, Colorado at Oregon, Georgia vs. Florida) plus a bonus Pac 12 pick, since he’s been on fire with those lately.(9:09) Geoff and Matt go through every game on the slate for week 9 of the NFL season, looking for the picks that will give them back to back winning weeks for the first time this season.  They highlight a few games they’re betting on (Colts at Titans, Dallas at Minnesota) and a few they’re staying away from (Chargers vs. Patriots, Niners at Bears), plus Geoff gets a few thoughts about the Chiefs off his chest.Apple podcasts users, remember to leave comments to be featured in a mailbag segment later in the season! Geoff wants all the smoke.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's there's october 28th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz this morning you're powered by the varsity podcast network i can tell matt today's a little punchy guys he just gave me a a gun salute to start the show in the zoom we are ready to go we're off the most stressful winning week we've ever had because we needed one in the worst possible way we still are very bad at gambling on NFL. We're in the winning week, though. College football is going a lot better. My Pac-12 plays are something to behold. I'm sure we'll have some regression there.

But nonetheless, Matt, how are you, buddy? You seem very punchy today. I mean, your Pac-12 and college hot streak is insane. Like, you're blazing hot. Like, you're sending me these texts every week. You're like, hey, I'm 9-0 now. Then you're like hey i'm nine to know this i'm nine to know now then you're like hey i'm 12 and oh hey i'm 15 and oh and meanwhile our nfl picks were one in a thousand like we're the fucking worst i think we're i think we're we're 12 and 23 um yeah i've won uh so i give out pack 12 picks uh for the

entire slate against the spread on my radio show. And I've won 15 in a row. I'm 28 of 14 on the season. 15 in a row? That's like unbelievable. Three straight weeks. And then I give out Pac-12 picks on Twitter. I don't bet all the games that I'm picking on the radio because that's silly. You shouldn't bet every game.

I'm 17 and 9 on my public plays I give out on Friday. So there are a couple here in the college football section I like. Let's start very quickly with college football, Matt. A lot of big games in the Midwest this weekend. We're going to start with my favorite one first, which is Ohio State is actually hosting Penn State. They're not at Penn State here. And I think we have two teams going different directions.

Penn State is getting 18-1⁄2. We're going with Ohio State here. I think they win this game by three touchdowns. Let's talk about this very quickly. Look, Ohio State, we saw it during the season. They struggled against Oregon, right? They weren't as good at Oregon as they were. Then against Tulsa the next week, it was an okay performance.

Then Akron, they played a bunch of backups, and they kicked Akron's ass. But since then, man, the last three weeks against Big Ten opponents, 52 points, 66 points, 54 points, were only allowing 37 total points. They're first in the country in efficiency

on offense. They're second in points per drive. And their defense, by the way, has improved a lot since the Oregon, but 28th in success rate on defense. Their defense is kind of short things up a little bit not as much uh single high safety not as much um you're kind of just standing before the snap a lot more disguised now um but the reason i like this game more than anything is pence as you know ohio state's still looking for a playoff berth right like they're

still playing for something penn state is not they've lost two straight weeks now they lost to iowa and then Sean Clifford came back. Their quarterback did not look very good as he's recovering from injury, and they lost nine overtimes to Illinois. To Illinois. They scored 10 points in regulation. I just think we have two teams going opposite directions. Penn State's coach, James Franklin.

He wants a USC job. LSU's going to call him. There's a lot of things happening around this program, Matt. I think Ohio State went to this game, especially kind of late in the game, as Penn State's defense gets worn down because their offense can't score. Ohio State scored a bunch of late touchdowns here. I think they cover this game. Probably not an advantage, having played a nine-overtime game the week before,

going on the road and playing Ohio State the next week. Are you saying that as a person who knows things about the Pac-12 with the USC thing? I think James Franklin wants the job. I don't know if they're going to offer it to him. I mean, people out West have no idea what USC is going to do because they're USC. Like they could just hire someone out of the blue. But people are fairly certain that Franklin wants a job if he's offered it. I want to apologize now to the listeners.

There is a construction happening right above me, a drill that sounds a lot like maybe a flatulence. I just want to put that out there. If you hear it in my audio, that's what's happening. It earlier sounded like a drum solo, but now it's shifted gears. So just a heads up, but maybe take us to our next game here. All right. Let's go back to the Midwest here.

Michigan and Michigan State. The total is at 50. It was at 52. I like the under here. We have. There it goes. The truth. Oh, yeah.

It is loud as can be. It's right above me. I'm really sorry. It's okay here. Chris blew it. So Michigan, Michigan State Michigan State under here 50. Look, we have two really good defenses, right? And Michigan's defense has kind of carried this team this year.

They're eighth in points per drive, 32nd in pressure. They're 20th on third down. Michigan State's defense is 23rd in points per drive, eighth in limiting explosive plays. I think we kind of have the classic Big Ten kind of slugfest here, Matt, right? Where offensively, Michigan State's a little more explosive, but has not played a defense close to Michigan's defense all season. Michigan's going to run the football.

Kate McNamara has only like 140 pass times all season. They really can't attack the edges with Bell being out. Michigan's off a bye. I just think we have a very kind of tight game here. How about this? I have someone to help me with research by the way now, which is good for college. Maybe we'll get to the NFL

in a little bit. I asked him, I said, hey look, both these teams are in the top 21 in scoring defense. It means to me yards per play. The top 20 teams, how many times is this game going under? Out of the top 21 teams in defensive yards per play, 60% of their games go under.

And Michigan State, four of the last five have gone under. Michigan, four of their seven games have gone under. Give me the under 50 here. I like it. We're picking totals. Yes, yes, because I don't really like everything that's happening around me, just like the drill in the background. All right, let's get to another big game here. What are they, the cocktail party? They don't

have to call this a cocktail party anymore. I have no idea. Cocktail party, Georgia, Florida. Matt, so Florida's getting 14 points. Georgia's favored by 14 here. I wanted to find a way to take Florida here. 14 points, good SEC team, but I can't't i can't um they are unsure quarterback and when you're playing a georgia team you cannot be unsure quarterback you just can't you can't be unsure quarterback um it's i i just i think this we're looking at at a game where florida's offense is two up and down we know what what Georgia's going to bring them. They don't have – last year they smoked Georgia, but they had Kyle Pitts. There's Tony.

They don't have Kyle Pitts and Tony again this year, right? Is Richardson going to play? Is Jones going to start the whole time or get all the snaps there? I like Georgia here, minus 14. I don't have a strong conviction on this. I just want to cover it because it is a big game. I just want to kind of put that out there. But the next two games – I love the Ohio State cover, the total in the Michigan

and Michigan State game, and go out west very quickly. Oregon, Colorado, under 49. Oregon's mentality all season long has been to play up and down. I told you guys last weekend on the show, last week, that Oregon

would play up for UCLA. They did. They played up for UCLA. They're going to play down for Colorado. Colorado told you guys last weekend on the show, last week, that Oregon would play up for UCLA. They did. They played up for UCLA. They're going to play down for Colorado. Colorado right now is atrocious on offense. They just fired their offensive line coach.

Not sure if that's going to help. They're 124 in the country in points per drive, 123 yards per drive, 125 in the success rate. They're just bad. Defensively, they're a little bit better,

but Oregon, I'm telling you, they're not going to play with the same energy they showed against UCLA. Plus, next week, they're a little bit better. But Oregon, I'm telling you, they're not going to play with the same energy they showed against UCLA. Plus, next week, they play Washington. At Washington, who's our biggest rival, this game is going to be like 24-10, 31-10. It's a national TV Fox game, too.

Middle of the day. Just take the under, please. Just go ahead and do that. Lastly here, let's go back to out west. Matt, if I told you, and I obviously kind of lit off here with a little bit of a key because it's Team Out West. The team that has the number one rushing success rate in the country. Go.

Gosh, I have no clue. It is the Oregon State Beavers. That I would not have guessed. Oregon State Beavers. The Cal Bears, who they're playing, are number eight in the country in rushing success rate. These teams score the ball, especially Oregon State. They're in the top 10 in points per drive because of the way they run the football. This line is at 55 right now.

I never give overs. I would hammer the over here. I would take the over here in a big way. A buddy of mine who predicts games has this game at 62 points. I think we're going to have teams that are both in 30s as they both run the football very well. And it's not like one of those things where they run the ball well and the other team stops the ball in defense.

Oregon State defensively is 102nd overall in defense. They can't stop a nosebleed. Cal's 67th. I just think this game is in the 30s for both teams. Back and forth, running the football, play-action pass. I'll take the over here in this game. I just think this game is in the 30s for both teams. Back and forth. Run the football. Play action pass. I'll take the over here in this game.

So just a little college plays right there. It's Matt. Let's get to the main course here. The National Football League. I love those picks, Jeff. Really insightful. You're always right on Oregon. The total there and takingado's points is an interesting

one all right moving on to the nfl like you said 12 and 23 jeff three and two last week uh rough week but probably not as rough of a week as uh green bay and the packers are having davante adams alan lazard and defensive coordinator jo Joe Barry all on the COVID list. It might be good for them not to have Joe Barry. Just saying, I watched that guy in Washington for a while. The line we're getting right now is six and a half for Arizona. We're not going to play this, right? We're not going to play this, but it's pretty interesting here.

So this game opened at three, right, which is kind of a standard line for home teams. I think this year, though, they're making it like two because there's not really a home field advantage anymore there really isn't if you look at the numbers um should a line move three four points because wide receiver is out i was very eager to talk about this with you um it shouldn't right there's no way it should move three lines because the wide receiver is out i would love to bet the packers here but i just i just can't do it because it's a short week and all these guys are out like if this is a sunday i think i'd be all over this are you telling me that aaron rogers back against the wall

on the road national tv is not going to play his best game like this seems rather silly that they're not going to play well in this game i would love to take the packers here but i don't think i don't think we could play this this game with so much uncertainty you have to be very intrigued jeff that's really interesting because this is also the place where he did the uh the jeff janice hail mary like that was the last time they played really great games here yeah yeah and everyone's so like this is you're right it's a it's a giant line move for one player i think what the reason i don't think it's so like this is you're right. It's a it's a giant line move for one player. I think the reason I don't think it's so much Devante Adams. I think it's more that what is that offense without him?

Like he it's such a bear cover beyond him. And the Lazard thing hurts, too. He's he's played well in Adams absence before. I don't mind this. I really don't. I feel like we should maybe consider it. It's it's ugly, but there's a lot of ugly games that are on the board this week. So I'm intrigued.

I'm fine with considering it for now because I do think that we'll see kind of obviously how this goes. We're 0-3 picking against the Cardinals, too, by the way. We have been murdered. Yeah, everyone is. They've been incredible. They've been great. All right. Yeah, everyone is.

They've been incredible. They've been great. All right. So this is maybe – guys, the line should not move three and a half points like this much. Very quickly, by the way, because I had to get this in last time. Please send us a rating, review, question. We're compiling the questions in the comments section to do a mailbag with. We'll answer all of them.

I saw we got one about my brother and I doing a restaurant together. I promise. We're going to compile these together. We'll get a mailbag with we'll answer all that i saw we got one about my brother and i doing a restaurant together i promise we're gonna pile these together we'll get a mailbag going so if you're an itunes listener please go ahead and do that all right matt next one let's go to houston yeah there's there's lots of shows to fill in july and june mailbags would really be helpful we can talk restaurant concepts and carolina panthers team total overs um around then yeah moving on to houston the rams they're they're uh mid-season break is almost over here they're going to houston they're laying 14 uh to rod taylor back to practice on wednesday does that change your thinking at all oh god i don't know i just want to say his his stats when he went out against Cleveland, against Cleveland, good defense. He was 10 for 11 with 125 in a touch. The week before, he was 21 for 33 with two touchdowns.

No picks. That was against Jacksonville. But he is like if he is playing, this number is going to talk about a line move. This is going to go to 10. Like he is such a difference maker for this team. Their whole team becomes like they realize that they're all professionals. When Davis Mills is back there, it's just chaos. But if Terada's playing, 14 feels like easy money to me. This is like the classic, you have to take Houston or don't you?

And this is, we'll get to this in a few other spots. Touchdown favorites this season are undefeated. They're 26-0. That doesn't happen. Like that's against the spread. Over touchdown. Yeah, straight up and against the spread. They have not, no team favored by by no underdog of seven or more has

covered yet so it's coming at some point in no no no no no underdog of seven or more is one out right that's right yes sorry because let's say the lines come the upset hasn't happened i'm not saying that there's going to be a straight up upset here but like these games this isn't just going to keep happening by the way i i see 14 14.5 right now as we're doing this. So I'm taking 14.5. I think that's a strong play here. Because, guys, we're seeing some of these home dogs start to cover a little bit more now. We're kind of getting back to the principles of what you have to wager on. And this is one of those games where, look, we took Houston last week at Arizona.

It was a lot of points. I mean, they almost covered it. They played a terrible football game. But if Tyron taylor's back this is 100 to play here i'm i am i'm with you on this um it's a lot if he's playing 14 and a half is good anyway like you're saying yeah i mean 14 was good anyways um the one thing that i do sort of fear is the rams kind of bounce back from that lions game uh but they have the Titans coming up the following week. And we know Tennessee's really good, kind of maybe a look-ahead spot here. So I'm good with this one, 14 and a half, the Houston Texans.

This is how you crawl your way back. You take Terod Taylor down two touchdowns. We'll see. If Terod is out, no thanks no thanks fair enough we'll get to some of this like at the end but yeah we do this right where we kind of it says look we're filming this we're recording this wednesday yeah you know sometimes it just you you have to make an executive decision on this i will tweet that out by the way um if i do that but yeah it's your show we're allowed we're not playing this if dav If Davis Mills is playing this game.

No, I will not bet again on Davis Mills ever. Here's one that I do really like Pittsburgh going to Cleveland. Cleveland is laying three and a half. That's very important that they're laying three and a half to me. If that, if that tells you where, where I'm headed on this. So Baker Mayfield, I believe is back at practice, right? And he's expected to play this week. Pittsburgh's off a buy. If I recall, am I right on that? Pittsburgh's off a buy. Yep. They're not playing last weekend. Tomlin's nine and three is last 12 as a dog.

They've covered four of the last five in this series during the regular season. I think you're thinking the Steelers, right? Plus three and a half. Oh yeah, baby. Can I give you, can I just load you with stats and trends right here? This is like I have trend. Oh, Rama right here, Jeff. This season, road dogs under a touchdown are 30 and 12 against the spread. Mike Tomlin, 39, 20 and two as an underdog in his career. Tomlin's covered 56 percent of divisional games. Second best in the NFL since he's been a head coach.

61 percent is a road dog. Kevin Stefanski, 0-6 against the spread in the division. Big Ben, 23-2-1 straight up against Cleveland. What else do you need? Plus the hook. Plus Baker Mayfield's rushing back from injury because he sees that Case Keenum could win the job over him, right? Honestly.

I think the hook here is very, very important in this. So I am 0-6 in the division. All right. I'm going. The hook here is what sells it. Three and a half Steelers. Plus all the money's on Cleveland, by the way. That seems kind of silly.

Yep. I love that one. That's one of my favorites. on Cleveland, by the way. That seems kind of silly. Yep. I love that one. That's one of my favorites. Bad news, though, Jeff. We're 0-9 picking the AFC North this season. Well, it has to change at some point. That's right. We've got to reverse the trend at some point.

I think this is a good chance for us to get on the board. Speaking of get on the board, the Lions are going to try to do that this week. They're plus 3.5 at home against Philly. Do we dare? Oh, we 100 dare let me explain let me explain why i'm taking the lines here so in 2010 i was on a really bad team we were 2 and 14 that year and um we played two games the two games we won we beat the niners and the cardinals in the afc west i knew before the game we were going to win. We were 0-5. I think we played the Niners.

We're like, we're going to win. They're not good. We're going to win this game. I feel like the Lions sitting in the locker room this week, as they're preparing for this game, are thinking the same thing. The Eagles are not good, guys. If we give our effort and we give our best play, we're going to win this game. I didn't win this game outright.

I'll take a three and a half here. I don't know what about Philly makes you excited about taking them on the road in this game. Yeah, it's their first time as a favorite this whole season. And it's his road favorite. The only thing that concerns me is, you know, we like Detroit against Cincy two weeks ago. It was after one of those like brutal losses i forget who it was at the time and they just were flat and my concern would be that they'd come out of that game last week where they i mean onside kicks fake punts like they threw

everything they could at the rams covered were awesome my question is basically like do they have anything left in the tank after that? I understand that because I would kind of be concerned about that too. It's a good point, but I think that the mindset of... They had to go into that game against the Rams. We have to do everything we can to win this game. There's no chance we have straight up. There's no chance we have straight up. But in this game, that's not the case.

They know they can win this game, in my opinion, and they're gonna play they're gonna play that way i mean this line opened the eagles were fair by point the eagles this line should move that much it's crazy it's crazy on the road they stink they're one of the most overinflated teams i think i i just think the teams like people just see them play like the bucks and they're like ah they seem fine they they're better than the lions i i like lions money line here i almost would rather do that i mean the three and a half is a nice if you get that hook that is nice oh we'll definitely take the the uh the three and a half let me see here uh let's see here there's a lot of under under trends here um

birds have dropped um they're uh two and two on against against the spread on the road this season. Again, they're a big, a big, a big under trend here. The Lions have covered four last six at Ford Field. I think the Lions are three and a half. They're great at home. Yeah, they're great at home. They're much better at home. All right, let's let's lock that one in.

I have a similar opinion on this game that's coming up here. San Francisco is going into Chicago, the lines three and a half. And for some reason it's the 49ers who are favored by three and a half. Do you see any reason not to take the bears here? Or am I crazy? A couple of things that worry me. One is no Khalil Mack.

Khalil Mack's out for three weeks on the short term IR. is no Khalil Mack. Khalil Mack's out for three weeks on the short-term IR. And the Bears' offensive scheme might get Justin Fields killed. Like, they're just – it's a problem, dude. And I have a hard time betting on a team I can't even trust to protect their own quarterback. I don't know, the Niners are any good. I really don't.

Not with Jimmy G, at least. They haven't covered their last four games. But, oh, boy. I mean, Joey Bosa in this game. No, Nick Bosa. Sorry. I mean, he might kill Justin Fields. I I'm terrified to take them here because I don't trust their offense and their blocking unit in this game.

I mean, that's fair. What I will say though, is the bears are, I think a little bit flying under the radar um they beat cincinnati they beat the raiders they're a real team like they just got their asses kicked by the bucks who have an amazing defensive line that's of course going to you know undervalue them the week after um meanwhile san francisco they beat detroit and philly they lost to Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, and Indy last week. They're just not good. I don't understand how they could be a three and a half point road favorite against anyone with a pulse. And the Bears most certainly have a pulse.

And I think we are getting some value here. Yeah, I think they're just telling you that they think the Niners are just much better than the Bears. I have trouble doing this because of uh of that reason i don't i don't i mean we could put on maybe category do you love this game no um oh i i don't but i it's one that jumped out to me um but that's why we do this because there's that we're there to protect each other in theory or make each other worse well we can protect ourselves by skipping this next game i'll tell you that i will also say this uh home dogs this year only 48.8 against the spread usually that number is a lot higher yeah so i think that that's either

going to start to change dramatically and it'll even out to the usual like 55 ish right that's usually where that lands yeah yeah or things have changed you mentioned you mentioned the home field advantage which has really shifted so um especially for bad teams so uh okay moving on our next game is god maybe we save some time here carolina at atlanta atlanta is laying three yeah just skip just skip our time sorry falcons or panthers fans this is a dumpster fire i'm not touching this game yeah we are not betting on Matt Ryan or Sam Darnold. We are interested in living long, healthy lives. Another stinker of a game,

but one we might have a little bit of a taste of. Miami at Buffalo. Buffalo laying 14 off the bye. I see 13 and a half. We got to talk to Producer Hank about some of these lines, Matt. Let's take the 13 and a half. Let's take the 13 and a half we gotta talk to producer hank about some of these lines man let's take the 13 and a half like come on whoever i see consensus right now 13 and a half i would much rather take that obviously yeah 13 and a half minus 111 like that's the number right now um i think it's got to be the

bills right i i think the bills are going to kick their ass in this game they're off a buy they're feeling fresh um the dolphins are they trading two are they not uh they're one and six against the spread their last six games the bills won this game remember in in miami 35 nothing so far this season matt moore remains the last uh the only dolphins quarterback to have a game one at stardust park since 2010 um buffalo seven and two against the spread hosting miami the last nine games I mean this game what is Miami going to offer in this game yeah what's their answer what's what are they going to fix Buffalo's number one in DVOA I mean like if we're going to take one home big favorite this weekend there's one later on we'll talk about the very end if you want to stay tuned a little fiery Jeff Schwartz we'll skip that one I feel like I feel very good about Buffalo in this spot I know it's public as

hell but this feels like this is a game this year. We've kind of overlooked, but like, we're not touching this game. And this is the NASK again. Yeah. These are the games that actually have hit this year. All of these, like they seem to just keep covering these huge favorites. So I'm into to pass this through. If we're talking about like, do we want green Bay or this?

It's like, I feel about the same. So I'm willing to advance this one. Yeah. I think this yeah i think this is again this just feels like an ass kicking i mean they're my you know miami is traveling on the road again they just they just kind of lost a heartbreaker at home where they should have probably won and two of those are bad receptions their their office line is a freaking dumpster fire i'm going i'm going buffalo here so um i'm good 13 and a half i'll gladly take 13 and a half it is that's what jeff sees that's what we're doing uh next on the list oh boy oh boy the bangles at the jets uh i see 10 and a half i see 11 i've seen 11 and a half what do we want to say this is i don't want to say anything because i just don't want to oh god i mean i i took the bangles defense and fantasy this week for this game but i mean dude

i'm not betting on the jets plus 11 at home with mike white right because we're done betting huge road favorites right i just can't i can't stomach it right now here's my here's the bangles are riding so high right now right now they go to play the lowly jets in a stadium that's going to have 4 000 people in it and no one gives a shit about this game like this just screams like the jets win by i'm sorry the you know the bangles win by three to seven i i'm right like it does not we've watched enough of these games in our in our lives the bangles are good they're playing very well but this is not a game where i don't they're not they're not the team yet to go into this game and cover this spread by a lot like they might and they might i might be wrong about this no but this is what the patriots did for so many years right

they would kick the ass on the road of a team like this. The Bengals aren't there yet. This is the... I have very weird vibes about this game. Extremely weird vibes. Vibes that are strong enough that I would be willing in my personal life to take the Jets, plus 11.5 at FanDuel, just want to say.

Oh, wow. I would take that. Anything over 10, I would take. The reason is, this is just, take these two teams out of it. There's no reason at all that you should bet on a guy named Mike White against the number one seed in the AFC. The Bengals are the top seed in the AFC. They've never, ever been here. Probably they maybe got here in the Carson Palmer days for two seconds. Yeah, this is a zach

taylor led team laying almost two touchdowns on the road at their absolute high when the jets just put up the when the jets just gave up 50 to belichick who always just absolutely destroys them i don't think zach wilson being out is that bad of a thing it might actually be a good thing let that offense kind of catch its breath uh again the favorites of seven or more 26 no this year there is going to be a crazy upset at some point that kills everyone in survivor pools no one's lost i kind of have a feeling that this one people are going to be biting their nails at the end of this i don't know why i think you're right here but i think you're right here but i'm not um but you can't. I mean, if you're like putting five bucks on this in your personal life,

I want to have some fun, go for it. But in our five, it's just we can't do it. But if the Jets win outright, I want to say that I called it. But if not, who cares? We're wrong all the time. All right. Let's move it along here. Yeah.

All right. India, Tennessee. Here we go. Here's move it along here. Yeah. All right. Indy at Tennessee. Here we go. Here's the fireworks begin. Judge, you just make the case and I'll just close my ears and just say it because you're right. But just say it anyways. Go ahead. I mean, you got to take the Colts.

I know that you hate Carson Wentz, but he's actually been kind of good this season. He's only thrown one interception, which is a big step forward. The Colts have won 22 of the last two. Well, they ruled that one a fumble the other day. Yeah, fair. It was also pouring rain, so whatever. The Colts have won 22 of 26 against the Titans. Quinton Nelson's back.

This is essentially for the division for Indy. If they lose this game and they drop, I think, three and a half games behind Tennessee, it's over. Their season is over. They've already played earlier this season. Tennessee one. They're coming to Indy. This is a good stretch for Indy here. They could turn their whole season around.

They have the Jags and jets next. There's a little reverse line movement here because people are still buying the Titans, but the line keeps sort of moving towards the Colts. This is probably going to be a pick them by the time that people hear this. And here's a little nugget for you, Jeff, Mike Vrabel, seven 12 and one against the spread when the spreads under a field goal, either way, when the games are close, he tends to, he tends to surprise not hold the line on the close ones.

So you got to take Indianapolis. So what's interesting is, is the Tennessee's DVO, a they're 20th for a team it's five and two right yeah that's it's pretty it's pretty low um yeah it is i mean this is them every year like they get hot at that at some point and they just had two nationally like huge games that everyone watched where they just blew out two quite good teams that usually leads to a regression right after all right well let's let's take the colts i'm with you the right play is the colts minus one here it's 100 the right play yeah i just i just hit number two i just yeah plus one let's move it along buddy oh we're actually

getting minus one um yeah yeah moving it to the chargers who are coming off a buy and playing the patriots chargers laying six i've had strong opinions on both sides of this one, so I don't know what to do here. What do you think? Yeah, I'm with you. I don't know what to do here either. I think this is a clear stay-away game. Mack Jones is actually playing some good football lately.

Chargers' defense is run defense is – I mean, they're going to run the ball 50 times this game if they can. The Patriots' defense is not half bad. I think this is a stay away game for us it's not we have just so many better lines this weekend than taking a Vegas a close Vegas zone line Chargers off a bye I'm I'm good with staying away yeah me too I I think that uh I I I came at this I saw this and it was five and a half at first and I was like Chargers obviously like this is such a better team like we're giving the patriots a lot of credit for covering against the bucks and murdering the

jets like are we sure that they're good and then it's like well are we sure the chargers are that good either like they they have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot that fourth down thing is going to bite them at some point like belichick defense on the road like i don't know it just feels like a trap and i can't tell which side. So I agree. Let's stay away. Stay away. Speaking of stay away, the Jaguars are going to Seattle in a game that is unwatchable completely. Do you see any value in either side here, the Seahawks or the Lang III? No, I don't see no value in anything in this game.

Absolutely not. I feel bad for anyone who wants to watch this. Yeah, we've been talking long enough now. We skip this game we have the next game is uh oh boy god i knew what it was going to be without even seeing it it is my washington football team at denver oh boy that denver is laying three three right now let me check that that's bounced around um yeah it's you gotta take denver right you don't have to but i don't think i think you the answer is you don't bet this yeah but i if you are the answer is 100 denver in this game right i mean washington we talked last week dude that was the most if they had the ball four times four times the second half in the

red zone had three points. Like they find ways to kill themselves. Denver is playing for their season right now. Like they have to kind of find a way to move the ball and get the ball down the field. But Teddy Bridgewater's backslide, yeah, you're right. You just stay away from this game. And there's better games out here.

But I think if you are betting this game, you're taking probably the under in this, under 43 and a half, and the Broncos but i don't want to i actually here let me give my two seconds on washington here i think they're going to win this game i'm not going to bet it i'm not going to say that people should bet it but my opinion about washington is they have had some like very strange luck both ways like they should have probably lost the two games they won and then last week they're in the red zone four times against a team that had given up a touchdown every score every single time someone had been in the red zone that season and they've run into this trend and then it reverses the opposite way taylor heineke should have had that touchdown the washington's played at really good teams this year like their schedule has been really tough and

their expectations were too high people like me were too high on them i think they're gonna have one of those and they're gonna they have the bye next week i think they win this game and everyone's like huh washington and then they're gonna do some dumb thing like when you know five out of seven and at the end of the year we're gonna be like huh they weren't that bad they just had a tough schedule and some lucky breaks i really do think that they're a little bit better than we think taylor heineke deciding to dive instead of just walk into the end zone yeah completely baffling to me well that's what happens when you when you sign a guy who didn't play football for like three years like that's like that's sort of what they're dealing with and they still are playing these you know they lost to the chiefs the packers the saints the chargers

like they've they've played good teams so i I think they're going to come around eventually. We can put them in the maybe possibly. No, we're not taking it. I'm taking them on the money line. Let's go to the next game here. Bucs-Saints. Interesting game here. Bucs laying five and a half.

This one's moved a lot, too. It's at six in some places. What do you think? Oh, boy. Oh, man. This is like the one I'm conflicted with because I think everything in our bones tells us to take, you know, New Orleans plus the points.

But, I mean, they really – I mean, they just beat a – barely beat a Seahawks team. They beat Washington. Lost to – they haven't been as good this year at home, right? They lost to – I don't know. I do not like this game at all.

Do you? No, I don't. The strength of New Orleans is Camara. The strength of Tampa is that defensive front. This just doesn't feel like a great matchup either way. You have to – well, here's the thing. You're right. You have to take the Saints if you're playing this,

and I just don't want to. I'm with you. I'm just not interested. Yeah, I's the thing. You're right. You have to take the Saints if you're playing this, and I just don't want to. I'm with you. I'm not interested. Yeah, I'm with you. We've seen this one too many times before. I don't feel like doing it. All right. Pass.

We've got two great games to wrap this up, so let's spend a good amount of time there. Dallas is at Minnesota. Minnesota is a two-and-a-half point home dog. This is that one where it's like these trends. Usually you just say Minnesota, and you don't even think about it i'm curious if that's if that's where you are now this line is is down to to one in some places for the cowboys uh yeah just one place it looks like mostly consensus is one and a half right now cowboys over one and a half

um so when we started talking this week about games we wanted to play, right? We kind of started it. So I immediately looked at this game and was like, Minnesota off a buy at home, we're in. But how about this? Cousins is 1-7 against a spread off teams versus a buy and 3-10 as a night dog. McCarthy is 11-2-1 against a spread post-buy week. I like the Cowboys.

Me too. The 6-0 against a spread post-bye week. I like the Cowboys. Me too. The 6-0 against the spread, I get it. This is a public freaking play as can be, but they're healthy. They're playing good football. They're just better than the Vikings. They're just better. Dak's calf is fine, obviously. And this is just a public as shit play.

But you tell me the Cowboys are going to lose to the Vikings in this game off a bye. No, no. I was off a bye too. Yeah. I mean, I I'm with you. I felt the same way. We were both. The first thing we saw this week was like Vikings.

And it feels like one where I mean, Cowboys have covered every single game against the spread this year, but the Vikings suck covering at home one and six in their last seven at home. You mentioned Kirk cousins. He is one in seven off of a buy in his career, three and 10 straight up as a primetime underdog. The guy is just not good in these spots ever. And here we have a chance to take, I don't know, you could say they're the best team in the league. It's not out

of the question. Basically a pick if you're saying it's one, one and a half. I like it. Can't believe I'm taking a road favorite with public back Dallas team against Mike Zimmer team at home. Can't believe it. I don't think I mentioned here, DVOA

puts Minnesota at 30th on special teams not not great that's not good tough schedule minnesota i just think if you look around this where is what one position is minnesota better than the cowboys at wow i mean wide receiver i guess theon jefferson i guess but Cooper Lamb Gallup I think Gallup's hurt right now running back I mean Dalvin okay sure but they have Zeke Elliott definitely not quarterback definitely not O-line definitely not D-line

definitely not secondary yeah the coverage is better team off a bye let's get to this last game here because I just I'm so tired of you fucking people it's get to this last game here because I'm so tired of you fucking people. It's ridiculous to me. Kansas City minus nine and a half.

Yeah, we'll say nine and a half. I'm just telling you right now, Kansas City is going to score 45 points. And all you guys this week, they're talking about the offense being broken. It can't be fixed. It's done. It's over. You're going to have to eat your shit because, guys, they had one bad game.

One. Entering the Tennessee game, they were number one in the NFL in points per drive and number two in efficiency. One bad game. People were like, oh, it's done. Season's over. Can't fix their offense.

What do they do? Do we think they're going to turn the ball over 41 times this season? Do you guys really think that? Do you think they're going to turn the ball over 41 times this season? Do you guys really think that? Do you think they're going to turn the ball over 41? Everyone says, well, they haven't fixed their turnover problems. Some of it's bad luck. That's the way turnovers go, right?

If you fumble the ball and every time you fumble it, someone else recovers it, that just flips over to the other side. That's the way turnovers are, right? I just think it's really silly how we talk about the Chiefs right now. I would take it despite everyone, but they're still fifth in DVOA guys on offense. The turnovers

are the problem. They're fifth on offense and fifth on special teams. They're 31st on defense. That's a big problem. That's kind of a problem. But they're playing Daniel Jones with no Kadarius Toney, an offensive line that's beat up. Jones, though, covers on the road, which is why you just – I'm not taking this game,

but everyone has got to calm the freak down with the Chiefs, man. I've never seen overreaction like this before. One bad game, man. It's not one bad game, though. The leaders in interceptions are Zach Wilson and Pat Mahomes. Yeah, but five of those have gone through wide receivers' hands, like directly through their hands. Is that Mahomes' fault?

Maybe not five. I would say this. Here's what the Chiefs remind me of. I'm going to pull this exact number up. So the early 2010 Seahawks, right? So they get Russell Wilson in 2012. It's not exactly an amount. It's not exactly a one-to-one here.

But they come in. They're awesome. And everyone's like, how are we going to stop this team? We got the Legion of Boom. We got Russell Wilson. They win the Super Bowl. Then they get back to the Super Bowl. They lose.

Then the next year, they go 10-6. They get in the playoffs. The division gets a little better. Then they go 10-5-1. And they've just kind of hung around ever since. I think that could be the fate of the chiefs here they just have too many holes across their roster and too much depends on mahomes and this happened with russell wilson last year like russell wilson just like wasn't able to pull a rabbit out of his hat every two seconds and therefore seattle just was kind of toast like i kind of think that's what it

is but no one said their offense was broken and they can't be fixed. And oh my God, it's the end of the Chiefs. No one said that. Everyone was like, you know what? Russell Wilson's pressing too much. Seattle's defense sucks. That's exactly what's happening here.

No one talks about it. It feels like people have been- It's the curse of being one of the most fun teams of all time. People have been waiting to shit on the Chiefs for like a while now. They find out their opportunity to do so and i just i just think the overreaction is mind-blowing to me it's it's absolutely mind-blowing to me well what do you think of my analogy there i can extend it they have two they both have two good pass receivers and they

both have a safety from lsu who's awesome and that's their whole team it's interesting because they're they go about differently but they're kind of in the same spot like so seattle's issue was obviously their defense just kind of got old and they never replaced those guys and the kansas engine had that problem yet they just have drafted poorly and you look at you know can't you know seattle hit those like three drafts in a row of big dogs just like the chiefs did and now the chiefs are now they've drafted better last two years but the frank clark trade and whatnot so yeah i'm it's offensive line moves like they so much was banded about these offensive linemen like we're fine that's not the problem brown's a turnstile man they miss your brother but but they draft they they traded him knowing that's what he

is that he can't get in third long situations with him him. What? How is that a good thing? Well, I've said that from the beginning. I just, I don't think he fits this offense at all. But it's not a new thing I've said. But when they're ahead of the chains, it does not, it has not mattered, right? Because you stay ahead of the chains, it's not as much.

PFF has him ranked as the 11th best pass-blocking offensive line. Like, they're, this idea that, and by the way, they're the second best run-blocking offensive blocking offensive line like they they're fine their offensive line's not the problem Mahomes did not play well on the first half of the Tennessee game like he did not play well the problem is their their defense Kansas City's defense is 31st their run defense is 32nd their pass rush is 32nd so um I get what you're saying that the problem like the overreaction of like the chiefs are done is too much if that's the take the take of hey i actually don't think this team

is built to win anytime soon because it requires perfection from patrick holmes is is accurate like i don't think they might miss the playoffs this year. That's an accurate take, but that's what people are saying. This whole discussion is about how their offense is broken. That's not the problem on the team. Well, fine, fine. Well, that's not what we're saying. I want to hear your opinion on this actual, the actual reality.

They have a lot of issues with their roster. They have to get fixed. They have to draft better and find better for agents. And they haven't done that. Now, it's really more of like after the Mahomes pick. It's like 17, 18, 19. 20 and 21 have been better. They've added players that have been very helpful to their roster.

Now, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire was not. But this past draft has been good. Defensively, they added Gay and Snead in the draft in 2020. So they're better at it lately. But there are a lot of holes on this team still. They might make the playoffs, but it's because Pat mahomes plays out of his ass but i think like something else has happened and it's like nick wright our our friend someone we both respect a lot posted something it was like i think it was after that kelsey flip play uh to get like three

extra yards where he said something like did they they even practice? Like, what are they doing? Like, I feel like they got so cute with their whole scheme. And meanwhile, they can't figure out how to beat a goddamn cover two. Like, what is going on with this team? So, well, the cover two thing is real. And they need to be able to run the football more. And they can. They can.

They just have to do it. They have to do it. With who? Daryl? Oh, yeah. They're running backs. He's better than Clyde Ruggiero. They have to have to do it they have to do it with who daryl oh yeah they're running backs he's better than claire they have to commit to doing it like that's the thing that andy reed is not it's not really been his thing and so look there's a lot of self-reflection happening there i promise you that and there's a lot of embarrassment and if you think this team's come out after an embarrassment like that and not play hard and not and not score points um i think y'all are crazy i am taking them in survivor this week because they're gonna win but i don't love them to cover and i don't think that they're gonna like this is not a one game

fix there are two best offensive games again this season we're against two washington and philly yeah all right well who plays that same bad division? Yeah. Yeah. And they have to win this game because they get the Packers coming up soon and they get the Cowboys soon. Well, this is what's going to happen. And I want to say that I think it's crazy they're favored by 10 over anyone. Like, a lot of things could go wrong. The Muckers still likes them a lot.

Yeah. Well, everyone's saying the same thing you're saying, which is like, they're just going to be fine. Like, they're going to blow this team out next week. It's the Packers. And like, who knows what deals Packers? That'll be a good game for us all to learn from. But will you at least agree with me here?

There is something off with this team enough that we need to like recalibrate our expectations and say that like they did a bad job of just relying too much on on mahomes like it's just like seattle's problem with with russ where you watch them play without russ and you're like what is this team this is the worst team in the league without him and i think that's kind of where the chiefs are they got spoiled i don't disagree with you i wrote about that for fox sports i go to fox sports and see my entire column um i mean it's it's yeah it's that's what i wrote essentially so i'm with you there i just think the overreaction to the specific offense just seems really silly to me. Don't you think that Chiefs should trade for one of these backs that's like these extra backs, like Marlon Mack? No.

Can he rush the passer? Can he rush the strike? That's what they need to trade for. Yeah, that's right. You're exactly right. Don't worry about running back. Running back's the last of their problems. They're fine with Darrell williams um all right so

pittsburgh plus three and a half at cleveland detroit hosting the eagles they're getting three and a half points buffalo at home minus 13 and a half hosting the dolphins indy minus one at home and then dallas on the road the most public of all public plays, minus the point and a half. I love it, man. I like our group this week. Yeah, me too. Was there anything we were still considering?

Green Bay? Well, we consider Green Bay. Houston plus 14 and a half of Tyrod plays. Do you still like that one over any of these other ones? I think if Tyrod plays and the line is around then, we can consider a a tweet correction but i think our five is is right who would you take out do it one more time pittsburgh detroit buffalo indy dallas buffalo yeah we also had chicago as a possibility in the jets which you're

gonna yeah the jets in chicago no thanks i i feels most strongly about pittsburgh and and indy and dallas yeah pittsburgh indy dallas are the ones and i like buffalo detroit so uh all right guys we've done it another episode we won last week look if we just go three and two the rest of the year every week i think we're back to like 500 it's true and by the way it seems the drilling has stopped oh no it's back it's fair it's still there don't worry by the way, it seems the drilling has stopped. Oh, no, it's back. It's back. No, there it is. It's still there. Don't worry. Sorry, everybody. I hope you guys enjoyed me, Matt, the drilling. As always, we're presented by

the Varsity Podcast Network. Please rate, review, subscribe. Again, we're going to put together all your questions you leave in the comments section. We saw so far your question about the cooking. I appreciate you guys giving me some feedback on the show as well, at JeffShorts on Twitter.

Please enjoy the weekend of football. We'll be back on Monday with our college football show, and obviously on Tuesday and next week with our wagering picks. All right, guys, have a great weekend. Take care.