Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - CFB Week Seven Picks and the Five Best Bets for NFL Week Six

Episode Date: October 14, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back again with their picks on five games from this coming weekend of CFB action (Kentucky vs. Georgia, Oklahoma St vs. Texas, BYU vs. Baylor, Arizona St. vs Utah, and UCLA vs. Washington). Geoff’s taking Georgia no matter how many points they’re laying, and predicting another chaotic Big 12 shootout in Austin.Then Geoff and Matt go through every game on the slate for NFL Week 6 (11:39), and highlight a few they’re betting on (Vikings vs. Panthers, Bills at Titans) plus a few they’re staying away from (Texans vs. Colts, Rams at Giants). Geoff and Matt need a big week to shake off their rough start to the season, but they’re confident riding an emotional Lions squad and whoever’s playing against Geno Smith will take them to the promised land (above .500).See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday october 14th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you powered by the varsity podcast network and matt we're back again to talk about wagering for this weekend i'm not i'm not sure we should be allowed sorry yeah i i was a little late i was a little late because i was getting an exorcism jeff it's this has been fucking ridiculous man like what is happening? I'm not sure we're allowed to talk about wagering. We are 7-18 in the NFL in five weeks, which is like – it's nearly impossible. I promise you guys.

Look, I am not going to be at 55%, but I'm also never at 49%. I'm like at 51% every year. And this is atrocious start. And, I mean, last weekend, the Penn State-Iowa game, right? Nailed that game. Iowa's quarterback, excuse me, Penn State's quarterback gets hurt. Daniel Jones and the Giants. It's 10-10.

Daniel Jones gets hurt. Browns up 14 points, second half. Don't cover the game. Panthers up 15-3. Eagles dead in the water. Don't cover the game. So, we have plays we like this week. We have certain matchups we like this week.

And we're going to, as we normally do, man, we're going to plug away. We're going to stick to what we do best. And we're going to hopefully make some money. Let's start on college football this week before we get going here. Yeah. Look, can i just say this i also want to say the seahawks should have covered that game then russell wilson went out and they still almost covered with geno smith somehow this do you remember a long time ago it

was it was probably before you might have been at oregon there was the i think it was my defensive coordinator jack del rio brought like an axe into the Jaguars locker room and told them to keep chopping wood. Do you remember that? I do not, but that sounds familiar. And then the punter of the Jaguars accidentally cut himself because they were chopping wood. He brought an axe, a weapon into a locker room. That's us. We're going to keep chopping wood even if we're making self-inflicted wounds along the way, Jeff.

We're going to keep chopping wood even if we're making self-inflicted wounds along the way, Jeff. We're going to keep chopping wood. Yes, we are. And we're going to keep trying to make you guys money. I mean, look, at this point, if you're fading us, I mean, you should. Good for you. So hopefully we'll make you guys some money. Eventually, it can't get any worse. It can't get any worse.

And so we can laugh at ourselves about it, uh we do we're trying to win these wagers and we'll continue to try doing that as we move forward um all right let's get to to college football here uh the first game kentucky is is visiting georgia here and it's a big it's a big number it's 23 july 23 i'm gonna lay the points at home and and I'll explain why. I don't love this, but I also can't really find a reason to take Kentucky. Georgia's allowed 33 points the entire season. That's 5.5 points per game. And their four conference games, they allowed 13 points.

They allowed 13 points to South Carolina, 0 to Vanderbilt, 0 to Arkansas, and 10 points to Auburn last weekend. And Kentucky's profile fits a lot like Auburn's, where they're better on defense. Excuse me, a lot like Arkansas's. I'm sorry. Better on defense. And offensively, you know, they're okay offensively, right?

They're not doing anything special. But they run the football well. They have a good offensive line. Will Levins is a quarterback. He does turn the ball over a little bit too much for my liking. But Georgia is just the most complete team in the nation, Matt. And I don't expect Kentucky to score more than 14 points here. And while Georgia's offense doesn't get a lot of attention,

they're really good in a couple of things that Kentucky's bad at. So Georgia's offense is 14th of points per drive. And Georgia's offense is number one in the country in average third down distance. And Kentucky's defense, by the way is uh not very good on on third and short and third and medium so i did kind of a specific area that i think georgia will be able to exploit they wear them down and this gets close to them they win this game like 34 10 37 10 somewhere around the number but i'm going georgia here in the biggest game of the week this is the most ridiculous line jeff this is the number 11 team in the country

they're getting 23 points the the money line on georgia is minus 2000 i mean that's just so insane to me with an nfl background i'll i'll say this though make sure you're betting which if you like georgia here you can get about 21 and a half at some places this came in. This got hammered on the Kentucky side early, and now the money's coming back onto Georgia. So check your line wherever you're stopping. I think they're telling you. Do you remember last weekend? Is it Georgia?

Who did Georgia play last weekend? It was Georgia and – I pulled the schedule just to make sure. No, okay. Well, the Georgia-Arkansas game. Do you remember it was like 18 points, 19 points? Arkansas was like near the top 10. Everyone's like, oh, my God.

How could this be? And they smashed smashed them i think they're telling you here that georgia is that much better than kentucky um yeah so i'm and the total is only 44 so they're expecting like a 30 to nothing 34 10 something like that right 34 10 let's get to oklahoma state at texas here so this is a game of polar opposites, right? Oklahoma State's defense is really good, guys. They're eighth in overall efficiency. They're 10th in points per drive in the second in pressure rate. On the flip side, though, their offense is atrocious, right? Not very good.

They did not score a lot of points this year. And even in Big Ten play, they're having trouble scoring points, right? They scored 31 at Kansas State, but one of those was on defense, and then 24 against Baylor. On the flip side, Texas, we know offensively, really good. Defensively, not very good. But here's a side I like in this game. I like Oklahoma State first half. They're on the road, by the way. The road team's covered three straight games this matchup. But you have a Texas team who's off an emotional loss, devastating loss to Oklahoma.

They come back home now. The crowd and the team, I think, are going to be kind of in a haze after that loss. Where Oklahoma State's coming off a bye, and they're going to be fired up to play this game. They're going to have some unique things in offense, ready to go. And defensively, they're going to try to punch Texas.

Texas is not throwing the ball on a wide receiver screen in the first play of the game going 75 yards for a touchdown, right? So I like Oklahoma State here in the first half because I think Texas in the second half, if Oklahoma State can't score, they will wear down that defense. But I think the first half is an emotional spot right here.

A letdown spot, I should say, for Texas. Give me Oklahoma State, who, by the way, has won two straight games against ranked opponents. They're playing some good football. Give me Oklahoma State here in the first half, I should say. How about for the full game, Jeff? It looks like the pros are all over Oklahoma State here. The bets are split, but 90% of the money is on OK State here.

So I think I like the first half play coming out of the haze of last week. But I think probably good play for Oklahoma State. Yeah, so we'll go to – we'll stay in the Big 12 with a Big 12 team in Baylor against BYU. This line opened about five. It's now up to six and a half in most places. I would grab Baylor before too long. They're favored up to six and a half in most places. I would grab Baylor before too long. They're favored by that six and a half.

BYU thought they were going to be undefeated this season. They had a schedule where they beat three Pac-12 schools, including Arizona State, who's the top 15 team. And they had to beat

Boise and Baylor. And then really the schedule just kind of lightened up after that. Washington State, Virginia, USC at the end of the season. And there was a thought in their mind, hey, we go 13-0, and we have a chance to make the playoffs, especially with a weird season.

Well, guess what? They lost at home to Boise. Now they're going on the road to play a really solid Baylor team who plays some great defense, who's able to move the ball good enough up and down the field. Their eighth in explosive play rate, their eighth in opportunity rate, their eighth in average third down distance. But defensively, Baylor is a legit group of 21st in points per drive,

the 44th in yards per drive, their limit in explosive plays. BYU has a little bit of uncertainty in the quarterback position. Their starter missed last game but may or may not be back. But some people don't think Hall should be playing. So I think BYU emotionally in a letdown spot after losing that home game. Go on the road and Baylor smashed them pretty good. Interesting. I had forgotten as I was listening along.

BYU, future Big 12 team. That's just such a strange thing. I forgot about that. You're right about that, right? Yeah. So Baylor's coming off a loss to OK State. I don't know. Coming home, big jump in competition here. I think you're probably on the right side. The Sharps agree with you once again. So yeah, 90% plus of the money is on Baylor. So the one thing I am good at in gambling is the Pac-12 conference.

And I know that I'm not trying to people listen to this show for that, but that's actually where I can make you money. I like to, I'll go to, I'll go pretty quickly. So Utah hosts Arizona State. And I think I said last week on the podcast, like just kind of whispered, like take Washington State at home against Oregon State, right? Everyone's like, oh, Oregon State's four and one, five and one.

Why would I do that? And Washington State won, of course. This is the most Pac-12 game of Oregon State, right? Everyone's like, oh, Oregon State's 4-1, 5-1. Why would they do that? And Washington State won, of course. This is the most Pac-12 game of all time, right? Arizona State is feeling good. They're 5-1. Utah, up and down this year. They had to bench their quarterback. But since they benched their quarterback in Charlie Brewer, they haven't lost yet, right?

They beat Washington State and they smashed USC. They had not won the Coliseum, by the way, in 100 years. And now they get Arizona State team again. Arizona State is good on the offensive line. Their havoc rate on defense is good. Like, they do good things. But this Utah team is rounding into what we thought they were going to be this year. But here's another reason why I think that this is not a track stop for Arizona State,

but a spot where, emotionally, Utah will just be a little bit more fired up than will Arizona State. And Arizona State, by the way, has a bye the following week too. So, you can see them kind of looking ahead to the bye, which is the same way Oregon State did, right? That Oregon State overlooked, I think, Washington State lost that game. So, Utah played Washington State three weekends ago and unfortunately, tragically, had a player shot and killed at a party that the night of the game or the morning after. And it's the second time this has happened. A player passed away nine months ago.

And they had a bye week and they had to process that. They went to USC and smashed USC. And they did so with, in my opinion, the best energy they had shown all season. Kind of a renewed energy and focus. And, of course, they were playing for Aaron Lowe. They had a funeral Monday and now they're back home for the first time. I just think, Matt, like the emotions of that stadium will carry them through this game. And I think they're getting a point right now. I think they went outright.

They're still good on defenses, Utah. And Charlie, excuse me, Cam Rising has done a really good job of kind of writing that ship on offense that's been put in there. I like Utah here in a spot where everyone's betting on Arizona State. But Utah plays well at home. And the emotions of this game, I think, carry them. Interesting. What's your other play in the conference?

I like UCLA at Washington, very simply. UCLA has lost twice this year, both times to teams that can throw the football. Washington cannot do that at all. And they're terrible stopping the run. So, and you say,

runs the football pretty well. So I'm going the Bruins here. Then they're favored by, by, they're getting a point, point and a half. They'll win outright, but take the point

if you would like. All right, Matt. Let's get to our favorite part. Let's get to the NFL. I'm not going to repeat our record again, but let's get to our favorite part let's get to the nfl i'm not going to repeat our record again but uh let's just say it's not very good no no it's not very good but hey one at a time we can't win we can't win them all in one one game so chop chop wood as they say right wood yeah i just you guys should look that up it's a really crazy story. All right. Let's start with the Thursday night game. The Bucs are in Philly.

Six and a half is the number we're looking at here for the Bucs on the road. What do you think? Yeah. Look, I mean, the play that everyone's going to – the Sharps are going to be over the Eagles in this spot, right? And I understand why that would be. And Tom Brady has not been as good on Thursday night with Tampa as he was in was in new england remember last year went to chicago wasn't it got embarrassed against chicago that's right the fourth so yeah yeah so i would say away from this game there's a couple props i like like miles sanders yardage is really low for a reason i would actually take

the under in that if you remember the the cowboys game they didn't rush him very very much um they don't use him as much as they said tamp Tampa's number one rushing defense in the NFL. So I would look at any sort of under props for rushing, for Jalen Hurts or for Miles Sanders. But this, to me, is a stay-away game. Gronk is out again. The second day for Tampa is beat up. And I don't think Philly's very good,

but with all the injuries that they have for Tampa's defense, I would just stay away from this game. Yeah, I think I agree. I think the under might be kind of a good play here Thursday night under. Both these teams are just kind of banged up. I don't know. I would be interested maybe in Philly plus seven. The six and a half, I'm not really feeling.

And generally, I just don't like this Eagles team at all. So this is a pass. But I do think if you're looking for a play, maybe the under is the move. Yeah, if you're watching this game and need some money on it, or just bet on the Giants. Put money on the baseball Giants. Money line at home.

Game five against the Dodgers on Thursday night as well. Hey, there you go. All right, continue, please. Yeah, we're going back to London. Home game for the Jaguars. Gosh,ami with maybe two are coming back that's the latest uh we've heard as of recording time today on wednesday uh yeah dolphins jags dolphins by three we send england our worst games um and as our as our

intern has theorized it's because we're still bitter about the revolutionary war so um which we won i'm confused we won but we're so bitter we sent Revolutionary War. Which we won? I'm confused. Which we won. But we're so bitter, we sent over the Dolphins, Jaguars. If this is at home, I might consider Jacksonville in this spot, but it's not. And I think we have a good firm policy of not betting on London games. So I'm good with staying away from this game.

Is it crazy that I kind of like Miami, Jeff? Yes, because they suck. I know they suck. They've been really bad. Dude, we talked before the show about the games we liked, and this was like 17th on the list. Can we just get to the games we actually like? I'll listen to your Miami. Go ahead. Let me hear it.

I don't know much, but I'll say this. If the Jaguars were trying to fire Urban Meyer this season, it's after this game. fire urban meyer this season it's after this game like if you're gonna tank a game it's going into your bi-week in london just leave his ass on another continent and move on like that is a possibility if they get blown out in this one yeah but urban doesn't want to be fired though i mean why why would he agree to this because he could go coach usc man like that's like that no he's not going to he's not going to usc just don don't he has done that well i i i mean anything could happen if he was of course if any if he was not under contract i think it might potentially be appealing to him uh to to go to usc i'm just saying i think this would be the time

for them to leave urban meyer uh in another country like the john gruden thing is is the story now's this could be the chance miami by the way like i like they should be better than this i swear to god we're gonna stop talking about this game in one second but miami is like a better team than we think to a coming back i think will actually help them brissette has not been very good i think i might be betting this one if i'm watching it on sunday but i don't think we need to. I would, yeah, just, you just, you can't, I'm out on this game. Yeah, who do you trust to prepare for London better,

Brian Flores or Urban Meyer? Just saying. Definitely Brian Flores, I'm with you there, but laying three, the Dolphins pass. Yeah, it's a big home crowd in London. Okay, moving on to a actual good football game that deserves some time. The Chargers are

going to baltimore two of the hottest teams in the league uh the line right now is baltimore by three i mean which team would you rather bet against less like i it's hard to say all the money's on the chargers right now and so i think if you were to take this line you would take baltimore here can i say something very quickly please i was wrong about Lamar Jackson. I didn't think he'd be this good. And that's fine. I've admitted that and we've moved past that. Can we not do the thing every time he plays well, the running back conversation? One person said that. One whole person said he should play running back in the NFL. The rest of us said he should play quarterback in the NFL. Why are we still doing this thing where every time he plays well, good

for a running back. One person said that. Why are we giving that person credence and credit for a stupid comment? Don't talk about it. Just admire Lamar for how good he's playing now. He's my fantasy quarterback. I needed all 41 points to win last weekend.

Like, I will take it. But the fact is can we stop doing this, Matt? Like every time he has a good game, be like, oh, good for a running back. Like we get it. That was five years ago. And Bill Poland said that. OK, can we like get over that, please? I agree. I do think that Lamar is one of those that people say like, hey, we were right about this because I got to be honest, like, of course course we were both wrong every week i'm like he can't keep doing this but he keeps doing it like it's i've never seen anyone play like this like it's like the best version of of vic or yeah rg3 like any of these i mean it's the most athletic

runner we've ever seen at the position and he's throwing the ball he has more passing yards than mahomes and rogers i mean this guy is just unbelievable yeah and on the other side it's another quarterback that none of us thought very highly of coming into the league and it's like me well well i mean it helped if he had gone to any other school you would have been out on him too so i don't know but i did i didn't ever watch all his film um look i i think that the lamar jackson thing is he he is there's just so reliant on him as an offensive player, right? I mean, he is their offense. They're not running the ball as well as they have in the past with their offensive line injuries. And they've been behind in a lot of games. He's had to throw

them back into games, which is something that, you know, they haven't had to do a lot. So he is their entire offense. I don't like a play in this game. I think the number is too good. It's too sharp. Like it's right at three. It just feels like a perfect number. Chargers run defense is really bad. We talked about this heading to last weekend. I believe the run defense is still in the bottom couple in the NFL. It didn't help that the Browns ran all over. Yeah, the rush defense is 31st in the NFL.

Just a reminder, whenever you talk about bad defenses, Kansas City just always lasts in everything. So the chargers rush event is not very good and so i would i i just would stay away from this i just would stay away from this game but but i think that if i were to wager on a wager actually on the ravens yeah me too i i feel the same way it's no fun betting against justin herbert but no i think that jackson right now would be my MVP vote. I mean, there's – He has to be as of right now, yeah.

Which is crazy because I wouldn't have even put him in the conversation a week ago. But like the way that – the amount of Baltimore success that flows through him and him alone. I mean, who is on this offense? Like Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown, like you look at – those guys would maybe not even start for the Chargers. It's just it's just unbelievable what he's been able to do. So credit to him. I agree. The Ravens would be the side, but I'm just not really interested.

At some point, it does feel like it has to end somewhere. Yeah, but it's a great game. That'll be a fun one to watch. One, I think we might have a play in is this next one. Minnesota at Carolina. Two super confusing teams you could say that their records were just about anything and i believe you but they're two and three and three and two yeah so um we were on carolina last week and probably was a mistake to do that

they just haven't you know it just it didn't obviously end up you know kind of in the in the direction that that we wanted um and and watching them really more for the first time um you know they're just not a team we thought so football outsiders has a metric um that basically they call it dave right it basically is like predictive dvoa like carolina for example 17th and overall dvoa but dave has him at 24th it basically is basically explained as like it combines I just look at someone's name Dave. It basically it's DVOA

adjusted for variation early. It combines the preseason forecast with the DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how the team

will play the rest of the season. So the Panthers are 24th. They're like they're not very good guys. Their offensive line

is not playing well. They kind of had to adjust it a lot. And Sam Donald doesn't play well under pressure. We saw that again last weekend. And the Vikings, look, their offense is just – it just can be so blah sometimes. But here's a couple things worth pointing out. Minnesota's defense averages nearly 12 pressures a game.

that Minnesota's defense averages nearly 12 pressures a game. And the Panthers allow pressures on nearly 30% of their dropbacks. I think that, and by the way, the Carolina numbers is tied for fifth, fifth worst, and the Vikings number is tied for second best. So I just think we have a matchup here where the quarterback isn't as good in Darnold, the lines are better in Minnesota, they desperately continue to need to win, and I think Carolina's just not a good football team. where the quarterback isn't as good in Darnold. The lines are better in Minnesota. They desperately continue to need to win. And I think Carolina's just not a good football team.

So I like the Vikings here, minus the point and a half. I'm just not on Carolina at this point. I don't think they're a good football team. I'm with you. Minnesota, they started one-3 two straight years. Last year, they sort of turned it around. Panthers, 4-10-1 in their last 15 home games. The home field in Charlotte, Jeff, it's not a thing.

You mentioned the pressure. The seeing ghost game for Sam Darnold was just a cover zero over and over and over, the New England game. So I'm with you. I don't know. Minnesota, they've had this brutal schedule i mean we've kind of forget every week it looks a little bit tougher the seattle game looks a little strange without rust but at cincy at arizona seattle cleveland and detroit last week that's tough man yeah worth pointing out our friend chris raybon at the action network has this one uh zimmer 67 against the spread versus non-divisional opponents with normal rest interesting so yeah i i like carolina here a lot um i'm like minnesota here a lot yeah i'm with the panthers i mean the panthers were like

number one in dvoa three weeks ago and now they're 17th yeah it's because they played houston and they played someone else terrible to start the season so So I think it's a good chance to buy low in Minnesota here. I'm with you. So let's go with the Vikings here. All right. So Vikings fans, sorry that you're going to lose now. Next up, we've got Green Bay at Chicago. Talk about trends, Jeff.

Aaron Rodgers absolutely owns this team. Are we taking them in this spot? We're not taking them in this spot. I mean, maybe correct me if i'm wrong here um everyone's betting on green bay here it's four and a half it's a weird number four and a half is always a weird number and normally we would take the home divisional underdog right i mean that's what we normally do but we were talking about this beforehand i mean with justin fields i don't can you trust him kind of in this spot to cover this game? Ownage is ownage, right?

I mean, that's part of how we talk about these games. And, you know, the Packers have won and covered their last four. They also hit the over a bunch of times. Over both games against the Bears last year as well. hit the over a bunch of times over both games it's the bears last year as well and they've won a what they've won 11 they've won 11 10 of 11 against chicago recently as well yeah i i'm i'm i would normally say all over the bears here but i'm not doing it this weekend yeah rogers 21 and 5 against the bears all time 19 and 7 against the spread uh packers four and one again this is the third year in a row that they've done that every year it seems like they come out and they're like oh i don't know if

they're good and then they end up 13 and three that's that's the third straight season yeah no you're right you're right i wish this was three or three and a half uh i i if i had to pick i'd take green bay just based on hey like, like. Yeah, but four. They know four and a half what people are doing. Yeah, they're scaring us off and it's going to work. So that's a pass. But if we're like short, I would consider it. Moving on to another NFC North team playing at home.

The Lions are playing the Bengals. The Lions are getting three and a half as we speak now. Man, poor Lions fans, dude. Like what a brutal year so far for them. So we talk about that kind of Dave stat, right? That number that predicts out. You cannot reference this without me laughing forever. I'm going to do it forever.

Cincinnati is 19th in the league in that, right? And remember, they won an overtime game against minnesota they won an overtime game against um jacksonville and they should have lost that packers game in regulation by the way not in overtime yeah and then should have won in overtime too yeah um you know the lions need a win in the worst way and they're grinding their asses off for this win and three and a half at home you know there's not really a great reason like a statistical reason or personnel reason why you would take detroit here you just take it off of emotions which isn't a great reason to take a

team but but i would be very comfortable taking the lions in in this spot i love the three and a half this is bumped around a little bit. Here's the here's. You're right. Emotion is not a real reason to put your hard earned money on anything. But last week, both of these teams had moral victories, right? The Bengals should have won. The home crowd was great.

The takeaway from that game was like, hey, the Bengals are good. Like, no, no shame in losing the Packers. The Lions coach cried in the press conference after they lost another one that they should have won. They hung around with a really tough team. I just think the Lions need this. And their home, they've covered both of their home games in this season. They haven't done quite as well on the road. So I think that they're really going to be up for this. Cincinnati, really interesting spot burrow obviously we don't know what what shape he's in after that throat contusion which there were two last week like i've never even heard of that injury um but

so we don't know exactly what kind of condition he's going to be in but the other thing that's kind of weird the bangles go on three straight road games from here so this one they go to baltimore next week, and then they have a third after that that I didn't write down and don't have in front of me. But this is sort of like the letdown spot, you'd think, after that brutal game last week. But this feels like the Lions' season.

So plus three and a half for teams that don't feel that unequal, despite all the injuries to Detroit, especially in the receiving core and up front. I think it's the play. The three and a half is what sells you on this, right? Yeah, totally. It's the three and a half, yeah. I'm good with putting them in the maybe category. I'm not quite sure. We'll kind of see how the rest of these games shake out. But yeah, I'm more in than out

on Detroit. So we'll put them in the maybe category. Yeah, I'm fine if we put them in. I'm fine too with doing it, but I just want to see where else we go based off of what we've talked about so far. Yeah, it's tough to lock in an 0-5 team. Okay, moving on to another stink fest. The Texans are at the Colts.

The Colts are laying nine, which is kind of a lot. What do you think? Yeah, can we just move on? I mean, there's – Laramie Tunstall is all-night injured reserve. I'm not – The Colts –

I'm not betting on the Colts ever. So – Yeah, pass. We have other games to talk about. Sorry, Texas and Colts fans. Yeah. Colts maybe in the survivor pool maybe. I'm still not sure.

Speaking of another game, we should probably just pass right on, is the Rams are going to the Giants. We have no clue who's playing in this Giants game, sure uh speaking of another game we should probably just pass right on is uh the rams are going to the giants we have no clue who's playing in this giants game but right now the line is nine and a half that's bumped that's jumped around a lot today uh what do you think rams favored by nine and a half so i mean the play here is the rams but daniel jones might play i mean he was interesting so today joe judge said basically he wasn't practicing. They're like, well, he's in full pads on the field behind you.

So I don't know what message we're getting from the Giants. I mean, if Jones plays, then obviously this line will come way back down. There's too much unknown, in my opinion, to play this right now. If Glennon is out, I mean, Glennon's in, Barkley we know is not going to play. We don't know if Goliath's going to play. Yeah, then take the rams but like a 10 point road favor in a game i just don't give a shit about like i'm i'm out of this game i can't do it yeah i yeah no thank you i will say if glennon's starting i might just take any number possible so it's it's possible i'd jump on the

night it's a good if it's if it gets to nine obviously it's good tease game yeah that's probably what they're trying to i think that they keep it if you can keep it at nine and a half so no one can tease this game yeah and the teasers have hit every single week so that's been it's been bad for books yeah yeah so if you're looking for a tease disruptor it could be this next game which is the chiefs at my beloved slash hated washington football team this is a great stat from our producer, Hank. We are 0-2 picking the football team and 0-2 picking the Chiefs. So maybe we have to pick this one just to exercise our demons. Plus six and a half, Washington.

Yeah, dude. Look, I mean, the Chiefs are going to get right this weekend, right? The worry is obviously that their defense is so bad that no matter how many points Mahomes scores, it does not matter because their defense just can't hold up. I was pretty disappointed with Washington's offense last week because we had Washington in that game. But, dude, I – Kansas City's offense will be fine. And some of the people do to talk about my homes in the weirdest

way man like come on guys they're not i saw some graphic where it was like pick it to throw one quarterback out it was like my homes josh allen tyler murray lamar and and herbert or something and then people like oh throw mahomes out like what what are we doing so i i would feel comfortable with with the chiefs here but the problem is i don't know if i trust their defense matt like what if they're up 14 13 14 points six and a half is a good number though um and washington's backdoor cover man i i gotta say jeff that washington's had one quality win in a year and a half with rivera and i don't think that's his fault because they played a bunch of ass teams and made the playoffs but washington's not winning this and this is kansas

city's season like kansas city if they were to somehow go two and four and the chargers go five and one like they're fucked they can't afford that so they have to somehow go two and four and the Chargers go five and one, like they're fucked. They can't afford that. So they have to come in here. This is the 32nd ranked defense against scoring defense against the 31st. Like, who do you trust? By the way, Andy Reid has not beaten any team more than he's beaten Washington in his career. This is where he goes to get right.

Like, I'm telling you, this is going to be a massacre. Like, I see it coming a mile away. I am fine going with the Chiefs here, even though it pains me. I feel like every week I try to take Washington because you just like bad teams with good coaches because they cover. And Washington tends to. They're not covering this. Kansas City is going to murder them. The last time Kansas City went to Washington,

I was playing on the team, and we play in that snow sleet game. Yeah, there was no one there. Remember, what? Yeah. You were there? No, no, no one was there. I wasn't there. It was like 56 to 14.

There might have been 4,000 fans in the stands after halftime. We were up 37-0 or some crazy 35-0 at halftime. We'd scored on a punt return, kick return, interception return. We dominated the game. It was in the in the snow was a ton of fun i look casey is at six and a half i'm good with this if it was at seven i might feel differently but i'm with you matt i mean this is the if they can't get right in this game they're not getting right in any game washington i'm i just looked this up because i was like when's the last time washington actually beat the chiefs there the chiefs are nine and one in this series when's the last time Washington actually beat the Chiefs? The Chiefs are 9-1 in this series all time. The last time Washington beat the Chiefs was 1983 when Washington won the Super Bowl for I think the first time.

This is not happening. Like put the Chiefs in your survivor pool. Like just it's going to happen. They're going to win. I'm fine laying the six now. It's not a good bet. It's a dumb public bet bet but it's going to work out don't don't tease washington do not okay i'm good i'm good with it jeez i i bet on pat mahomes

fine with me well let's consider it i mean it might be better than betting the fucking lions uh moving on to an actual good game the card Cardinals are going to Cleveland playing the Browns. The Browns are laying three. Do you have a lean here? I love the Browns in this spot. A couple reasons. Arizona's injuries, guys, are pretty bad. So Chandler Jones, their best pass rusher, is on the COVID list.

Their center, Rodney Hudson, is out. Jordan Phillips, out still. Max Williams, their tight end, out for the season. Both their cornerbacks are questionable for this game. And they're kind of like, they're 5-0. Like, this is the time they lose. This is the game they lose, right? I think that Cleveland's rushing attack, obviously,

could do a lot of damage. Arizona's rushing defense is just okay. They're much better defending the pass, but they don't have to worry about that because Baker Mayfield's going to throw the ball. And I just think the matchup is bad for the Arizona offensive line, who, again, I told you is beat up

with the Browns' ability to rush the passer. And the Browns' defense is not as bad as it showed last weekend. They're going to have a bounce-back performance in defending the pass. I like the Browns here minus a three. Anything above a three in in defending the pass i like the browns here minus three anything above a three maybe not but i like the browns here minus three i i don't know man i i think the browns yeah sure their defense is not as bad as giving up almost 50 to the chargers but they have not had a quality win yet this season they're not as good at home against the spread.

They're two and five against the spread at home in their last seven. Arizona dominant early in the season. They always, they have been under Kingsbury. They're 14 and five against the spread in their first seven weeks in the last three seasons. I kind of feel like this might be the game where we come out of this and we're like, man, Arizona is legit. And we end up being wrong about that rather than like – I don't know.

I don't know if I could see Cleveland putting up another 40 points, which might be what they need to hang with their – The Cardinals only scored 17 points against the Niners. I think that the injuries are a big deal. If Chandler Jones can't play, they can't rush the passer. Yeah, and the thing that we're – If both their corners are out – Dude, their center went out, Ronnie Hudson,

and their offense shut down last weekend. He's a big part of what they do. I think this is a good spot for injuries and for the Browns just kind of needing to get right after that performance, especially with how they played on defense last weekend. I just like them at home this weekend. Yeah. It's also the Cardinals have just played.

Well, they haven't even had that much. They haven't even had that bad of a schedule, to be honest. They went at Tennessee. They had the Vikings at home. They played Jacksonville. They beat the Rams. You're probably right. The Browns are a team we've leave a lot of the whole time.

Their defense should be getting right. The Cardinals' rush defense isn't good. Yeah. All right. I'm fine with this all right we got browns minus the three we're chugging right along matt matt didn't terribly like that one so we'll see how this goes on sunday as we're texting back and forth about hopefully our five and oh day all right let's move it along raiders at broncos broncos laying three and a half with the Raiders who we have no clue what we're going to get out of this week. Very confusing. Yeah. I saw Mark Davis, the owner, say something like the personnel was 51-49 screwed to Gruden when he was there.

Now it's 51-49 for Mayock. I'm like, just just they're a mess but i'm also not laying money on a broncos team that started three and oh and has looked pretty much like crap since then yeah yeah um so i think this is stay away from me let's save time there's there's no there's no edge here we don't know what these writers are going to look like and it it's the line. The hook stinks. That's a pass for me. I got a lean here, Jeff. Dallas at New England.

New England is plus three and a half as we're talking now. What's the idea? It depends on what book you use. Can we use four? I said three and a half. So you just have to bet New England here. The Cowboys are 5-0 against the spread, and they are the most public team of all time who is the worst at covering a national football league over their life

because everyone wagers on Dallas. They're riding high. I love their offense. Don't get me wrong. I think their offense is doing some great things, and I am all in their offense. But I just think this is just a bad spot for them. I like the Patriots here.

I mean, the four is much better than three and a half, of course, obviously. But this is like a hold your nose and wager game. I'll take New England here. What do you think? Dude, I don't know how you don't take Dallas here. I know it's square, but last week road favorites were four and two. I know it's a bad bet. I know it's going to come around.

But New England hasn't put up more than 25 this whole season. Dallas can put up 25 and four drives. I mean, they're just smoking hot. There's a reason they've covered every spread. It's because they're unstoppable. And look, New England should have lost to the Texans last week. The Cowboys can just roll into the stadium and blow them away. Like, how does New England win this game?

They stop Dallas on defense and Mac Jones is a great game. Like, Mac Jones could get picked off three times by one guy. Like, the Cowboys are just hot. I feel like it's just, you know, the three and a half especially. It's like, why not? You want to take a public Cowboys on the road? New England just gave up 22 to Davis Mills and 28 to Jameis Winston at home. Let's not give them too much credit for almost not losing to Tom Brady.

In the pouring rain, in the most emotional game Tom Brady's ever played. I think New England stinks. We're all looking at this team like it's 2001, sometime in the Brady era. They're just not the same team. Like, they have no one who can score. Like, their offense sucks. Like, I just don't see a world where they put up the 20, 30 points they need to win. What if the Cowboys just lose this game 2017?

You don't think that's possible? It's possible. But, like, I mean, it's possible. Situationally, obviously, you take the home dog. But I just have no faith in this New England team. I just think they're getting way too much credit for results. I thought we gave ourselves a no taking three and a half point favorites on the road as a rule. Well, fine.

But let's not take New England then. I'm willing to take the L if on Sunday New England somehow wins or loses by three, which is very possible. Okay. I'd rather – because we did take that rule, right? Take the L if on Sunday New England somehow wins or loses by three, which is very possible. Okay. I'd rather – because we did take that rule, right? No three and a half point road favorites on this podcast anymore? Sold. This is me shaking your hand from New York City.

Deal. All right. Next up. Let's move to the Sunday night game. Seattle and the Geno Smith-led Seahawks going to Pittsburgh, who are laying five. Like, what the fuck? Like, what? Five? What are we doing? Are we going to pittsburgh who were laying five like what the fuck like what five what are we doing do we have to do are we going to overthink this one right i mean the the the seahawks are going on the road across the country to play with geno smith against the steelers who i know

can't move the ball but like seattle's defense is awful and seattle's offense is not going to be good with geno smith like. Like, what are we doing here? I mean, this feels like the Steelers minus the five. Why are we stressing this game out? This is the play to make. I think you're probably right. I didn't even really consider this, to be honest. But, man.

We have Geno Smith going across the country to play a game against Pittsburgh, who just played a good game against Denver, by the way, right? They moved the ball down the field. Seattle's pass defense is not any good. I know they're without Juju. I get that. Seattle's pass defense, by the way, 28th in DVOA. How is – I just – I don't know.

I think this is overthinking if we just don't take the the team who is favored at home with a backup quarterback flying across the country yeah i'm yeah this it's funny this line is all over the place too i'm seeing it at four and a half i'm seeing it at five i've saw that i mean this opened at two and a half and got bet up. If this went from two and a half to five, like Russell Wilson is worth seven points. I think I'm fine with this. Like this hits my radar because of the like Pittsburgh favored at home. But like they're not going to blow this. Like this could be an absolute meltdown.

They definitely can blow it, but oh, geez. I'm willing to advance it. It sounds like we have like a couple of maybes here. So let's put it through. Pitt minus the five. Okay. Yeah. Okay.

Well, this one, this next one, I think we both might like. It's Buffalo coming off a huge win in prime time, going to Tennessee, whoever one's out on. Tennessee is plus five and a half at home. We got to take Tennessee, right? I think Tennessee is the way to go here. It's plus six right now, right? Yeah, five and a half, six, depending where you look. I'm taking the six if we're to take this game.

Let's give ourselves a break, man. I see it six in most places. Six, plus six, executive decision. So, look, obviously, the Titans' defense is not very good. I mean, Buffalo's defense is very good. I get that. But there were open guys in that game the other weekend,

and just Pat Mahomes just didn't find them. They were drop passes. And you're right about that. They're going back on the road again to another primetime game, and everyone's like, oh, my God, Buffalo's the best team in all the land.

They're going to win this game. Oh my God. I'm with you, man. I think this is a great situational spot to take Tennessee right here. I'm not terribly sold again on their defense, but I think that this is just a good classic fade, a high-flying team right now. I completely agree.

And this is, you know, Tennesseeessee if they first of all tennessee is like one of those teams that like everyone loved in the beginning of the season they've written off they just sort of haven't you know totally everything hasn't really broken their way it's going to at some point as long as as they don't run Derrick Henry into the ground. This is just a good situation. They're a good, well-coached home team coming off of a huge overvaluing of Buffalo. This line, I think, moved three points from the last week as the results of that Chiefs game. And we don't know exactly what the Chiefs are. So this is one I think you could say I'm a bit of a hypocrite after the New England thing that I just did. But you just hold your nose.

You know that you're going against a buzzsaw in Buffalo. But this is just one that most of the time you're going to hit with the plus five and a half. Yeah, and we saw this weekend, right? Like everyone was like, oh my god, on Monday. Like don't take the cold. They're plus seven. They're like, oh, well, they're not being right, right? And all right. So we have three not being right, right? Yeah.

All right. So, we have three that we love, right? Minnesota, Kansas City, Cleveland. I have three flagged here in the maybe category. I have Detroit plus three and a half, Pittsburgh minus the five, and Tennessee plus six. I think we're good at putting Tennessee in there, right? Yeah. You feel good about that one? Plus black Tennessee.

Okay. So, that means we have Pittsburgh and Detroit as the last two ones. So we have Detroit at home getting three and a half with Jared Goff and their team against the Bengals. Or Pittsburgh minus five against Seattle at home. I mean, this sounds silly to say, but I like the Lions probably in this spot. I've loved the Lions. I'd be willing to bump the Chiefs out for Pittsburgh. Really? Yeah, for sure.

I mean, just situationally. Would you rather take a home team playing five against Geno or a road team playing six and a half against a theoretically good defense? Seattle has the 25th ranked DVOA defense, and Pittsburgh has faced four top 13 defense in the top. This is the worst defense they're facing all season long. So you want to take Kansas City out for Detroit? I'd rather leave Kansas City in than Detroit.

So then let's... Put Pittsburgh in there? Yeah. So we have Minnesota minus the point and a half, Kansas City minus six and a half, Cleveland minus three, Tennessee plus six, Pittsburgh minus five.

Yeah, I love the detroit one i gotta say i i do um but i'm willing to go freelance off of that one and we could just do matt's freelance pick of the week and see well i mean before i lose i said i submit these games so i mean can't again the kansas city thing i you know i told you in text matches like i won no part of that game so let's dump it for the lions. Yeah. I mean, all the money is on Kansas City and a huge public spot. They don't cover anymore. Let's do the Lions, dude. We've shed too much blood on Washington and KC.

I think this is the right play. I feel really good about these, dude. I think we have some responsible lines. The thing about Detroit, though. So we can get this number. Oh, no, we can't get it four anymore. All right. We'll do three and a half.

I'm sure the contest number will be three and a half. Joe Burrow was in the hospital three days ago. Like, they're going to go on the road for three straight weeks and beat a team that just like is desperate. I think you got to take that. And it's three and a half. Yeah. Yeah.

So, Minnesota minus one and a half. Detroit plus a three and a half yeah yeah so minnesota minus minus one and a half detroit minus plus a three and a half at home cleveland minus three tennessee plus six and pittsburgh minus five yep the only huge public one we have is is going to be the the cleve the uh pittsburgh one right yeah yeah fine we're going against geno smith let's go that guy two good drives everyone calm down i'm fine with going against geno smith let's go that guy had two good drives everyone calmed down i'm fine with that i'm fine with that let's go all right i didn't think we'd be able to throw the chiefs out but i wouldn't when you texted me today about this i said i said hell no yeah hell no i mean i it's just not a good betting like you just you don't win making

those bets like over time well we don't win doing anything yeah so it's true um we i'm not sure we're the best uh we're the best representative but nonetheless i'm uh all right i'm on board with this i mean look we can't do any worse that's right so that's the positive i guess yeah if we go five and oh we're still at 33 percent what we would be what percentage would that be? 12 and 18. That would be bad. Well, yeah. Well, let's just go 10-0 the next two weeks or 9-1.

Let's just reverse it back to 9-1. Let's go, Jeff. It's a long season. It is a long season. As usual, we're brought to you by the Varsity Podcast Network. And yeah, let me know. At Jeff Schwartz, if you're fading us this weekend, are you going to think that things turn back around, but we're going to win some games.

So let's do that. I'll talk to you guys on Monday for a cultural episode. Have a great weekend, everyone.