Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Chiefs Bounceback Bucs Breakdown Bills Blowout Week 4 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz and co-host Matt Ford break down their top 5 wagers for NFL Week 4. They debate whether the Chiefs can rebound against the Ravens, why the Buccaneers are a live home dog vs. the Eagles, and whether the Bills and Lions will cover massive spreads. Geoff also explains why the Panthers are undervalued against the Patriots, makes a case for the Rams as a red-pen lock, and rants about the myth of “closing line value.” Plus, futures talk including Jim Harbaugh Coach of the Year odds, Colts to miss the playoffs, and quick thoughts on Raiders, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Monday Night Football doubleheaders. If you want sharp NFL betting analysis, Week 4 predictions, and futures insight, this episode is for you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Why? Why? Why? What the f***? What the f***? What, what, what, five and a half points? They have a million penalties a game. What are, what do we five and a half? Am I, am I crazy, bro? Five and a half is an insane number in this game. Hello, welcome to Josh Schwartz and Smarney. Jeff Schwartz is smarting. My draft kings, the crown is yours and it's Thursday, September 25th. I, Jeff Schwartz, alongside Matt forward we do we do every thursday we talk about the national football league we give you by the show our five favorite wagers of the week we try to win it's not going great at the moment we'll try to do better this week we were one of four last week matt even though i'd argue that we should have been two and three and the game we actually won at the game we should have lost um we had tennessee that was done in arrival houston really that was a game that was never really in it but we

could have covered that one. Should have covered New England, who turned the ball over five times and fumble twice heading into the end zone. And we should have covered Denver that lost by the hook. Instead, we get the Eagles and Jordan Davis to cover first, Matt. So one or four week, six and nine overall. We'll be better this week. Yeah. It's hard to say that we got shafted last week when we got probably the luckiest cover I've ever had in my life, with the possible exception of the week prior when we got the leverage call. So, you know, strikes and gutters.

We're on to next week. The Patriots won. They fumbled twice. The Patriots, man. Into the end zone. I think the Patriots are on a no wager list now, to be honest with it, in Tennessee.

So can we talk about a no wager list? Because I think Tennessee, I think the entire betting public needs to be banned from Tennessee. Tennessee, three and 17 in their last 20 against the spread. Yeah. They can't do. anything. Like I can't say one thing that I'm like, well, at least they can do this. They can't do

anything. And I'm fairly sure in the three games that they have covered or been the three games they've won. Like Brian and Conant has three and 17 as a head coach in general. Right. Like I think that they're legitimately just unbettable unless you want to bet, you know, the Texas this weekend, which I don't want to do. And you fade them until Brian Callahan essentially ends up losing the job. but then we'll see what happens to the Texas after or tightens after that happens. Cam Ward is not bad, but the coaching decision is making process there is just not good. And so we'll better this week. Look, this is something that we put these into a contest, right?

Matt, I'm at the point where NFL sides are, I think are just difficult to actually wager on, right? Okay. The difference between contest plays and plays you wager on, those are two different things, right? Now, of course, we're giving these out because we like them, correct? And they're in a, you know, we're trying to win money in the contest, right? So obviously, like, they're there for a purpose. I was talking to a buddy of mine who, you know, does this for a living. His life is gambling.

He said he puts a fourth of a unit now on an NFL side and puts a full unit on props and totals. Because the sides, man, it's such a sharp business. on the NFL and we're at a point now where the usual things that win over the years are not winning anymore, right? Now, last week, to your point, you mentioned this all last week that week three is a week where these favors tend to lose and they did, right? The Packers lost, the Falcons lost big. We should have been on Panthers. We knew it. We should have done it, Matt. We didn't do it. I guessed all the wrong sides. The Jaguars, yep. Yeah. So I'm curious to see if it holds this week with some of that idea.

But these sides, man, it is a difficult business, buddy. I think this is an interesting conversation that's definitely happening across the betting community because, for example, the Titans again this week, in the past, that's just an auto bet, right? It's, oh, a divisional team that's coming off of an embarrassing loss, catching seven, you just take the dog, especially against the team that's winless. And now, you know, the way that the, you know, the Saints that we'll get to that line, you know, that's touched 16, 16 and a half, 17 this week at Buffalo. And Buffalo is the side.

And I think that there's just something that's changed in the last couple of years in the NFL where if you've been following this for as long as we have, everything just kind of flipped. And I think I get your buddy's point about, you know, slowing down on the bets on the sides. I think it's just sort of a bit of a re just a recalibration. And, you know, the reason that people like him can do that is you can be sharper on the props on the prop sides. There are smaller markets. People aren't paying as close attention. You know, if you have a read on the, you know, Noah Gray is over under, like you're probably going to be able to hit it. But that's not what we're here for.

We're here to bet the sides. Oh, no. I know. And, you know, I get it. But like fortune favors the bold, Jeff. Like, let's get in there. It is the hardest thing to do is bet these sides. And we're going to do it.

We're going to keep documenting these. The word hero gets thrown around a lot these days, buddy. But we're going to be in there betting on the AFC South. Like, we're brave. Oh, geez. We are. There are some sides that you're not going to like that I like this weekend. And it's almost at the point where you got to figure out whether or not you think about

the old way used to wager or the new way you wager. We'll talk about that when it comes to one specific game that's probably about 17 miles from where I sit right now in New York City. Matthew, let's start with Thursday. Football. I do like a prop a lot in this game. I don't know if I like a side, but let's go. Interesting.

Well, the game in question, of course, is the Seahawks laying a point in a half at Arizona on Thursday the day you will hear this. What is our credo with taking? these games first of all. Are we allowed to put this in our five because I actually think there is a good side in this. If that side is Seattle, yes, we may put it in. No. It's not Seattle. It's no. It's Arizona. Yeah. I mean, I think Seattle has benefited from, you know, a nice little early season boost. I think, you know, that they are still getting a lot of credit for blowing out the Steelers. Uh, there are two blowout

wins are over two very sketchy teams. I just think that the Cardinals, you know, they're They had a strange loss that, you know, they're going to get dinged for where they obviously gave the gave away the last drive. Yeah. But I think these two teams are pretty even. And, you know, this is the kind of the old way of betting, right? You take it, it's a divisional team going on the road in a short week. And there, you know, there's a team catching points at home that's like kind of good. These teams are pretty much even.

In the old days, I think this would have been a nice play for the Cardinals, but it sounds like you're on the Seattle side. I'm not really on Seattle. It's more just a, I think Cardinals about James Connor. I got to see what they're like offensively. It's why I actually like Kyle Murray over 29 and a half rushing yards in this game, Matt. Then I gave out Colin Murray on one of my podcasts last week for over rushing yards. Look, without Connor there, who's been such an important part of the offense over the years. Now, this year he's not produced at the same level he did last year, but without him in the lineup, Matt,

I think Colin Murray has to do more offensively, which may be good. It might be good to have to use his legs a little bit more and get him more involved in the game with what his skill set can be. But I just, I don't really like the Cardinals ever, Matt. You know what I mean? And I understand the idea that, you know, let's sort of fade a Seattle team through three weeks

that really hasn't played anyone. But they're better all over the field. And that's my concern here. The thing about Thursday games that really makes it hard is that they're just so walkie, dude. Like that's the hard part about wagering these Thursday games. They are. And Kyler is two and eight straight up against the Seahawks.

This is that random like wheel of death in the NFC West. I don't know. I just, there's something fishy to me about Seattle laying points on the road on a short week. But we don't have to take this one. I agree the kind of thing is big. But also like he misses games every season. Last year he played 16 games. That was the most he's ever played in his.

career. So it's, I don't think it's like, it's a big loss, but I don't think it's like the biggest ever loss. But I get it. We can leave this one out. The Thursday games in the division are always wonky anyway. Hey, speaking of wonky, well, there's a game in Dublin this week. And it's between Carson Wentz and Aaron Rogers. And it's at 6.30 in the morning, my time. Can we just, are we fired up about this game? How are we feeling? I didn't realize it was in Dublin. Otherwise, I would have said it's back to see. There's a two and a half. But, uh, I think this doesn't count as a home game for Pittsburgh, right? Where the two and a half, I think, I know it sounds weird that this game is overseas in Dublin,

but and why we wouldn't take Pittsburgh, but I don't want to bet a 930 Dublin game, Matt, quite simply. Well, there is one point to possibly make here, and that is that we could be betting an underdog Mike Tomlin team against Carson Wentz. Like we could put that into consideration. I mean, so here. I get that it would be backing Rogers, but like, what are we doing here? Well, so the question is, is can Pittsburgh, I guess essentially, are their parts good enough to play the Vikings if the Vikings don't need Carson Wentz to be the guy? That makes sense, right?

Matt, like, can the Vikings with their defense and their offense line, their run game, control the game and make it to, where Carson Wentz doesn't have to do anything like last week. And then that forced Aaron Rogers. The two of not play well last week. They need five turnovers to beat the lowly Patriots, a bunch of dumb Patriots penalties and all this, you know, just bad football by New England to win that game. Minnesota's superpower right now is they're just a good team at, right?

They're good on defense. They're good in the offense line with Derasaw's back now. They looked getting better last week. Jordan Mason has a little bit of pop in the run game. Aaron Jones wasn't really giving them. You know, yeah, Carson Wentz isn't great. I get it. I'm fine with fading as much as possible. But again, if he doesn't do anything, then the Vikings probably wouldn't cover this game.

But I don't really think I want a part of a Dublin game to be in the card here. We should stay away from the international games. Yeah, that's right. Tomlin has only coached one overseas game. And it was in 2013 and it was a loss to the Vikings, which is kind of strange. Interesting. I just, yeah, I mean, this one, I feel like it's going to be so obvious. what happens in this after the game ends.

And but right now it's not clear what that is. Uh, it could be Carson Wentz as a favorite is, is a good thing to fade. Um, but I don't trust Pittsburgh at all. I think, I think the thing with Pittsburgh moving forward is like, they're going to beat the teams that are worse than them. They're not going to give anything away, right? Like the games where it's, oh, we actually have to keep up with a decent offense. Like, no, they can't do that.

Their defense isn't good enough. But if it's, hey, this team's going to turn the ball over five times. Can we win? Like, yeah, they're going to be able to do that. I agree. Every year, man, Pittsburgh. The line in that is two and a half. I'm not sure if I said the number.

If I did, then you got a twice. All right, two and a half for the Vikings in Dublin. Moving on to the one o'clock slate. Jackson Dart is catching six points at home to the LA Chargers. Our producer Hank made a great note that we have played the side against the chargers every week. And we are 0 and 3. So what is the definition of insanity, Jeff? Is it betting on the Giants catching six at home

against the Chargers for a fourth straight week? How are the Chargers to cover this game, Matt? I know you hate it, but we just talked to the open about how we might have to think about these games a little bit differently, right? Yeah. And I get a rookie quarterback making his first start. We don't know how to think about Jackson Dart.

He played one in the preseason against a very good Chargers defense, right? John's offense line looks better with Thomas. Bleak neighbors, boy, did not practice. is we record this on Wednesday with some sort of injury, which is not great, because they don't have elite neighbors. They have no one to throw the ball to. You have a Chargers offense that, you know, a little shaky at the offensive line, you know, all sort of looking like, you know, he needs a little bit of working left tackle. But, you know, nonetheless, they're moving the ball mat. Herbert looks really good.

There's no letdown. Like, I don't think this is a letdown spot for the Chargers at all. And would it surprise you if it was 20? 410. I got, like, nothing would surprise me in this. 27, 13,

the Chargers score a couple times late. I think the under is certainly in play here at 43 and a half, with the Giants not being able to score and the Chargers. I've not scored a ton of points last couple of weeks, 20 and 23. But as I mentioned,

the game the day, the best thing that Harba has done there is that they're not charging me anymore, or they're not losing games. They should win. It's a wager we don't. don't often make, but, you know, maybe there's a Jackson dart is super energetic for this team. The Giants play better. I get it, but the Giants just aren't any good, Matt, and it's part

of it as well. So, um, there's no home fit advantage here. So like this, this number to me, it doesn't scream like, you know, it would have been, you know, a different number. But I, I'm, I'm okay backing the Chargers. Um, it's six right now in draft Kings. Not my favorite, but I do think the Chargers will play here. Yeah, it's not my favorite either. The neighbor's thing is huge. I just feel like this is again, this is like three years ago, this would have been an automatic giant.

Correct. Automatic. And now it's sort of like, well, the neighbor's thing is huge. The offensive line thing is huge. I have this every like once a year, I get this feeling of like, I think they might just blow this game out right. You know, like this could be that game where it's like, wait, the Chargers like last week. Like the Packers lost.

Like it could be that. week but I'm not I don't know I haven't had a good read on the Chargers all year obviously we're o'n three against them if you want to put this in the maybes I'm I'm happy to do that yeah and and you know the Giants are that sharp team again this year like right last year that everyone all the sharps are on and just get their ass kicked every week so they're also played much worse at home and on the road this game is at home back-to-back weeks you know the chief's offense you know Thornton AIM up like who's supposed to be a fourth wide receiver, you know, on a good team.

So yeah, um, they're the maybe's. Let's get to the next game. This one feels like the east side is too easy. It kind of worries me. Yeah, it does feel a little too easy. We're seeing, uh, three and a half points for the Buccaneers at home against Philly. Um, Bucks and Eagles have played five times in the last, uh, four seasons. And the Bucks have won four out of those five, uh, have scored at will on this.

Eagles offense. Yeah. No Mike Evans, maybe some Godwin, maybe some worse, depending on what happens in practice in the next couple of days. What do you think here? I like Tampa a lot on this one, getting three and a half, Matt. Yeah.

I like the way they play. I like, and this is, you know, we've never said this on this podcast, I like Baker Mayfield, the way he's playing right now. I like their fight and their effort. Their offense line injuries are concerning. That's a concern of mine. also the health of Lane Johnson is a concern for the Eagles.

You know, they need a pretty fluky Sunday to win that game, obviously, as we know. And the Bucks, dude, they just never fight. They're a team, honestly, Matt, that I'd be happy to watch Down 10, needing a touchdown to cover for us. Like, they're going to run out and score. They're going to score. Gist who's not going to score. Cam Ward's not going to score.

Jackson Dart is not going to score for us. Yeah. Give me the Bucks at home. It's supposed to be 100. agrees, I think, in Tampa Bay this week is a super hot game. I put this in like the yes for me so far so, you know, on the show. I'm with you. Baker, second most profitable quarterback as an underdog.

He is 15 and 7. I just think, look, the Eagles, the Eagles are going to get their comeuppance at some point. They played three very weird games. And we already talked about last week. The Chiefs game even like that, they got a few lucky breaks in that one. So I just think this hook is is strange. I guess maybe there maybe the public is worried about no Mike Evans. But I have a feeling this could go in the other direction.

So I think we're getting a good number here at three and a half. I think I think this is at three or two and a half by kickoff. Yeah. It probably actually goes three blasted two and a half immediately someone takes the eagles gets back to three. My guess is it kicks at three around three, like three, two and a half by kickoff. It will not be three and a half after this comes out on Thursday in front. I promise you that. Yeah, it's interesting.

Still on the Draft Kings app, I'm still seeing that most of the, the bets are about 50, 50 and the money is on Philly, which is surprising. So something to note. We could be wrong here, but this one feels a little bit too easy.

Okay. The biggest spread of the season so far is Bill's Saints. The bills coming off of days of extra rest, hosting probably the worst team. of the year. The number's 15 and a half and is it crazy to like the bills? Should we just, should we just do it? I think we play the bills. Okay. Make the case. They beat the shit out of these teams every single year at home. We make this case all the,

you know, the, the times they don't are the division opponents, right? It's like the dolphins and the patriots. When they play non-division opponents and are favored by this many points, Matt, they win 4820, 40. 4210 30 to nothing like they win these games by a lot all the time and I think that the rest thing is important here if this was Sunday to Sunday I could be like you know what maybe there's like a letdown spot you know but like they've been sitting at home waiting to play for for a couple days now I mean extra days like they're going to be rested dude yeah the guys on defense aren't going to play but I don't know what the case is for anything else there's no look ahead spot

They played New England the next week. That game actually might be overseas. But oh, God, New England, Buffalo Slandonite football. Oh, God. Jeez. People had high hopes for New England. I think we just put, I think we put Buffalo in here. I actually think this might, I would, this might make sharp people's cards for this

weekend. I really think so. Well, no one is betting on the Saints. And, I mean, obviously, but we're still seeing 72%. of the of the bets are placed are on buffalo to cover this i just don't know what the number would be before i'd be like i don't know but josh allen has not he's not covered jeff in his last eight straight uh as a double-digit favorite so that is a little bit concerned yeah go ahead worth so the saints lost 2013 to the cardinals in week one at home 26 21 at home their first road game they lost

4413 yeah now they're back on the road It's a Sam Darnold. Yeah. Flying all the way back home from Seattle, back on the road. Tyler Shuck is probably going to play at some point this week. It's just, the Saints are not good, man. Playing outside.

Yeah. It's, it's not ideal. I would, let's put this in the maybes. I would feel fine as this being like our fifth. But man, that is a big number.

And it's a dead. I've never seen. Can you call 15 and a half a dead number? Yeah. What is that? Like, I don't, you know,

is it going to be a 16 point game? It's just strange. Is that like, is it like, what, 30? 15 like an extra point somewhere like yeah or yeah how do we get killed on this is it 30 to 12 and then it's Tyler Shuck and and Kendrae Miller so the total is 47 and a half so the way we get

fucked is like the way we get fucked is like the bills are just they put in mac barkley if those a pick six I mean like that that's that's what it is right yeah right yep yeah I mean we have to at least consider it uh some injuries to buffalo that are worth noting, Matt Milano and Oliver, Spencer Brown all didn't practice on Wednesday when we record this. So I don't know,

we have to at least consider it, which is the craziest thing ever, but we got to do it. Wow, this line has moved a lot since I last looked at it. The Browns are going to Detroit after a huge win against Green Bay. The lions are laying 10 points now.

What a surprise. This was, this touched like eight and a half a few days ago. What's funny is we didn't even, I'm looking at her from last week. We didn't even put the Browns as a maybe last week, which, which like in previous weeks,

you know, again, we came back to previous years, seven and a half against the Packers would have been great. We missed the number. It was like nine and a half the day before. That's why. Buddy,

this feels like 58 to 10. Okay, make the case. I'm on the same side. The case is that the same case I make with Buffalo. I actually think it's a better. case with the Lions. They, they've won, they won 5221 to Chicago. They just put up 38 in Baltimore. Yeah. Right. Look, the Brown's defense is really, really good. I, I'm with you there. But the

Brown's offense is poo. It is a bad offense. And yeah, can, can they defensively, like, put up a fight for a while, absolutely. But I'm, I, I'm not sure I want to play it, honestly, but look, last year, they beat Tennessee 52 to 14 at home. They beat Jacksonville 50, 52 to 6 at home last season. It's sort of what they do at home against bad teams the last couple of years. So, you know, They beat Carolina two years ago at home, 4224. Even like when they don't, like they beat Vegas a few years ago, on 2614, like not a high scoring game, but they still covered the 10. So I don't know, man.

Are we going to put in the maybes? I think they would be the play here. The lions have covered 70% of their games in the regular season since St. Campbell got there. There's concern, obviously. It's a short week and a tough defense. all those things. But the side here is 100% the lions.

This could turn into a track meet. And then all of a sudden, Joe Flack was throwing and bad things happen in that case. I don't, I don't know if the, the, I don't think that the Browns have, you know, the lions, when they're able to just run downhill, they're unstoppable. I'm not sure that the Browns will be able to like actually put the clamps on like

they could against Josh Jacobs and like a backup offensive line for Green Bay. So I'm interested. but we missed this number. I mean, this is just when we record the show, but this number was sitting at eight and a half. I know. You know,

even lower after the Browns won, it was like seven and a half. So that's why we didn't take them last week because it went from, I think, 10 down to seven and a half by the time we recorded. So we just,

you know, you try to get the best of the number. So that would be my concern here. But, you know, I wish, I wish we could get nine and a half. I feel like I'd be into that.

10 points is a lot to cover. Even though these two teams are obviously pretty different in talent levels. Yeah, I mean, are we going to end up with, with a minus 15 and a half and a minus 10 in our card? I, I'm fine. That's a nightmare. But like, what else are we going to? We'll go down this list.

What else are we going to play, Matt? We got to put it in the maybes. Like, there's one game I love this week. That's about it. And I don't know if you're going to like it. But that's one, there's one game I love. It's not the next one. I promise you that.

Okay. Well, we have one that we're sure of. Tampa and then we've got we've got three maybes I guess maybe just two in Buffalo and Cleveland. Um, okay, moving on to my team, the commanders are this line moved a lot. It's now the Falcons are favored by one and a half. Yeah, because Dan is not going to play. That's why. Yeah, but it's just interesting that this. That's the word I got today. Before that line moved, I got a text like Betterlanda now because it's going to move and it moved. Yeah, he did practice today the thing that's crazy is Terry McLaurin might be out for like a really long time

which would be devastating for Washington uh I don't I mean I think we've we've made a moratorium on Falcons anyway correct not not doing it let's just how about for time purposes we just we'll just take a I love it I love it go commanders I do hope I get a picture from from your well guess your wife put on Instagram or maybe you send it to me of you and your son like watching commanders football together very yeah yeah man we need more to like this he's working he's wearing a jaden Daniel it's sports day at his daycare and he's wearing a jaden Daniel shirt as we speak uh that's that's that's incredible that's our guy used to wear i think my stuff my kids still don't think it's cool yet that i play in the NFL yeah i mean that's kind of cooler to be wearing your actual

dad's shirt than some guy um who we love but haven't actually met so uh yeah that's pretty cool you could probably meet him somehow um all right let's get to the next game this one i feel like we'll will again to give our listeners a we do skip some games that we don't care about this might be one of them well this is just we can't play it it's tennessee at houston houston's laying seven points despite not winning a game there there's no what would this have to be for you to take tennessee twelve fourteen a hundred like tennessee is just not a bettable team if you gave me fourteen and a half i would do it because i think i would the texas would the the texas would win fourteen to three do you know it's the least amount of points the nfl is it

Houston. Houston. What's going on with them? Let me make sure I'm right on this before I open up my dumb mouth. Yeah, they have 38 points this season. Man. 38 points. So a couple of things.

One is their offense line is not very good. And then they can't run the football. And then Stroud doesn't look very comfortable and confident in this offense. And there's nothing to, like you want to have something you do well. Even if it's just running the football, Matt, like in hard times, what do we do? And we had Houston last week. And so I watched a lot of that game. In hard times, they have nothing to lean on.

Nothing. There's nothing they do well. Nothing you're like, and I thought this would be a different offense this year. Strata's more command of the offense. That rookie year seems more like an aberration. Like, we're going to talk about the next game coming up in a second here. But I think it's fair to say, Matt, is Bryce Young catching up to Ced Day Stroud as far as where they're in their careers right now, right?

right? Stroud is not playing well. That's quite a take. I haven't heard anyone make that. And Bryce, like, you know, they have their signs of life with him every, every game. Houston is the first team to ever start 0 and 3 while allowing 55 or fewer points in their first three games. That's a very specific and good stat. They're tied with Miami for the fewest points in the league.

Everyone loves Houston, which is so scary. I was thinking, like, are they a team you would trust in Survivor, for instance, this week? like I'm thinking about it but I you know maybe I'll have to burn Buffalo but this is one where it's like what is Houston what can we say we're they're for sure good at their defense is very good but they also haven't really they haven't played anybody really either except the Rams when they're still kind of rusty so I don't really know what to do with them but there's part of me that says like maybe we should just bet on them to like win the AFC South still because that division is so bad I saw something like 80% of teams that start or 700% of teams to start 3 and 0 make the playoffs. I mean, it's 25% don't. And there's six teams that are three and a half of the six aren't going to make it. So let's say two of the six, Matt. Well, they're the team. Yeah, they're plus 350, I think, to miss the playoffs. And my favorite, do you want to add that to our portfolio? I love that. Let's put that in there. Okay. So I'm going to, I'm going to make sure of the right number right now. It might be a little bit less. Let me make sure. Oh, I really like that one. So Colts,

no playoffs plus 270 how about that sold done absolutely hey hey mark a hundred on that uh for us please uh for that prop um i also added we can probably do look okay can i can i can i give you my my little bit of a closing line value tiny rant right now please okay so c lv closing line value to me is a myth okay it's something that um i'm gonna upset sharp better it is what it is, but like, sharp betters chase to, like, feel good about the wager they make instead of feeling good about winning the wager they make, if that makes sense, right? Like, there are people that I follow that you follow that pride themselves on, like, I got the best number, but you didn't come close to winning.

Got the best number, though. I want to win. That's my goal. And yeah, I might get a bad number. Certainly true. But I just try to want to win the wager. So I'll give you my example. Jim Harbaugh right now for coach the year is plus 650.

okay that is not a good number it's not the better number it's not the number that you could have gotten a week ago two weeks ago matt but right now at plus 650 that's probably the best number you might get the rest of the season on this guy i mean the charges are three no okay don't have a first place schedule they're they're probably winning the division i think as of now the chiefs might be might change we'll talk of them later but like plus 650 yeah it might have been plus a thousand you get good closing line value i don't care i think it might win actually like i'm not going to bet you know you know some some coach or some award that's not going to win because the best value is right now i want to i take futures on guys they can win the actual

award or win the bet you know what i mean matt like so i'm okay adding hardball to put a hundred on that as well a plus a 50 to win coach of the year it's not a bad bet uh i actually think it's a really good bet um so we had two two futures there we go i had a debate with the buddy who I think is probably listening to this show right now, um, who this week, he was saying, we should bet on the Browns playoffs. Like now's the time to, you know, the number of if they win again, the number is going to, you know, it's going to be harder to catch them. And it's like, dude, the Browns aren't going to the playoffs. Like this is not, this is like an imaginary exercise. The Browns suck. Like they had one good game and like,

their value would have been better a week ago. Like, what are we talking about? Like, you have to actually win the bet for its account. Correct. And I also just, in my own personal CLV like I win I assume I lose so many wagers Matt where I get the better number that I just don't think it matters to the way I would wager it might matter to someone who's much sharper than me and they crunch the numbers and you win by half a point all the time I never do I never like we like like like we won the Eagles wager because of luck but that's not close that's not because we got a better number no we just like we won we got the Eagles wager we just like one. I'm never like luck I got that half point. I really won that way. It never happens to me.

In fact, the other way always happens where I get a better number and lose outright. Yeah. This is all sort of like it's all make believe. And we have to remember unless you're like an incredible professional who if you're listening to us, you're not like just get it out. Just understand that about yourself. 53, 55 percent of your wagers like that's it's basically breaking even. And it's like it's really, really hard to do that. And I get it. That little half point is, is helpful sometimes. But like last week, this killed us because we could have been on the, we both liked the Browns, but we said we missed the number.

We already talked about this. And it was like, well, you know, if we, if we miss it, like we could have done better. Like, no, we should have just picked the side that we believed in. Yeah. I'm with you. I'm happy we touched on this. There's my, this is my closing line value rant. So how about this?

we'll take a pause here for the video audience stay tuned for the audio and to be back just a second we got one more i believe one o'clock game to hit and then we'll get to the later slate of games so we're back in a second all right matt we're back one more one o'clock game i believe and then we get to the afternoon so i actually like a sign this one o'clock game i want to talk it through with you uh-oh it's uh your carolina panthers at the new england patriots five and a half points for the patriots why why why why the fuck what what what five and a half points have you seen a new one paters play football this season i sure have they have the let's lock it is a game what are what do we five and a half am i am i am i crazy bro five and a half is an insane number in this game i i think what are we doing

with the patriots what are we doing with mike rable like this guy won a playoff game against Tom Brady like, like what, five years ago and we're still saying he's like the best coach ever since? I think it was 2019. Yeah. I remember watching it in like, it was before the pandemic. Yeah. It was before then.

That's where we're still giving him credit for it. Brady, Brady went to Tampa in 2020. That's how I remember. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. It ended Brady. Yeah. New England.

Okay. Look, since Carolina got down 27 to three against Arizona in the third quarter, they've outscored their opponents, Matt. What is that? 49 to nothing since then, right? They've put the shutout against the Falcons. And so

the Panthers, look, we thought the Panthers were going to be good this season, right? Like, I think we both were on the Panthers. Like, not good, but like, they finally sort of hit their stride. New England, the turnovers, the penalties, the participant play,

I don't get this number at all. It makes no sense to me. I like it. I think this is this is definitely a point too high. I think that not a lot of people are going to have the courage to bet on on the Panthers. Bryce Young, concerningly, one and 14 straight up on the road in his in his career,

five and 10 against the spread. The Cardinals was a cover. Yeah, I mean, look, the Patriots just like, who has faith in them? Like,

what is it exactly that they're good at on offense? What is it that they're good at on defense? Gonzalez might play, but he's going to be limited. I would imagine, even if he does. I just I look we might I might be on the wrong side on this one but dude I just I think this rabble thing is is is is residue from five years ago like I just I don't see it like

they remember they the Titans fired him and hired Callahan and thought that was an upgrade so maybe maybe they maybe they don't know what they're doing but yeah there's I I like this one the Panthers I think maybe have benefited from not a lot of people watching them every single week Yeah. So all right. Let's throw that one in. We're moving to the late window in the afternoon Sunday now. The Rams hosting the Colts in what, I mean, maybe is the best game of the week apart from Ravens Chiefs.

The line is three and a half here for the Rams. Should we just? I'm using a red pen today to mark the wagers that like we have in red pen that I'm not going to change. And I feel like Los Angeles Rans minus three and a half are a red pen play for this weekend. Sign me up, brother. I could not agree with you more. I think this is the week that Colts finally wake up from the dream. The dream of beating the dolphins,

meeting a leverage penalty to beat the Broncos and being the worst team in the NFL. Correct. Like that, they wake up from that dream. And also, because the Rams lost last week and the way they lost, they're going to be so focused this week on not losing in a shitty way again. Like, they're a veteran team, you know?

And so, yeah. I mean, this is the week at all, not all crumbles down. But by the way, one of our better future wagers has been all the Tyler Warren props we did. Yeah. Because he is, it's just as advertised, really good. And so I really like the Rams here. I'm all in. We're getting to, we got that, we got it like a lot of, a lot of ones we end up liking this week, which could be good or bad.

We'll see. Yeah. I just think the Colts, like, they can do one thing really well. Like they've had a really good run game and they haven't like they haven't really been exposed by by a really good offensive opponent just yet. Daniel Jones has, I don't know, I guess he's good on the, I guess he's good indoors on the road. Maybe that's a concern. But I just think that the Colts are about to just level up in their competition here. The hook makes you a little bit nervous.

but I kind of feel like that's the reason is that they just need some people to bet on the Colts because I think everybody who's, you know, watches these games is going to want to take the Rams. I think we're, I think we are learning too that like you shouldn't be afraid of that three and a half. Especially with the way teams go for two and it's just it. So I'm, I'm all in on that. So we got a lot of games we like. I think the next game we're not going to like. I'm going to give you one more stat from our buddy Evan.

Last week, the Rams were three and a half. point dogs to Philly. They were up by 19 points and they were three and a half point dogs, right? Teams in that exact situation are 185 and 5 against the spread the last 20 years. So we really definitely got lucky there with the Eagles. We were staring down 0 and 5. So thank you Jordan Davis for running that one home. Jordan Davis, by the way, we had a great Super Bowl prop on him last year. Maybe he's our guy. Maybe we're Jordan Davis podcast. Like 18.5 miles per hour, by the way.

Yeah, man. The guy's a house. Sam Schwarzstein was like on that immediately. I loved it so much. He was like he was ready. He sent me like a, I was like, is that stat true? And he sent me like a like a screenshot of like next gen stats of fat guys running down the field. Because like Sam's the best ever.

Yeah. So he has like a whole thing right here. Like here we go. Top speed. Ready? You want to read you the list real quick? Sure. So Jordan Davis won

Linval Joseph was two 2018 he had an interception And he ran up 18.16 miles per hour Domican Sioux 2019 18 miles an hour Leonard Williams was it last year last year The pick six against Aaron Rogers if you remember

17 miles power Yeah We have one offense alignment here Taylor Luwan Oh I guess we're card Bobcaster. Is it Patrick Ricard? Is I,

Fullback, yeah. Fullback, full back, full back, fullback are sort of offensive linemen as well. So yeah, that's the list.

Top speed the last, I don't know, however many years. So I love it so much. It's good to have Sam in that spot. Do you want to skip the next game or what? Are we going to do this game? Jaguars 49ers,

49ers, link three. This I think assumes Brock Purdy will play. Hard to know if that's the case here on Wednesday as we record this. I think we just have to pass based on that. They said he's limited today in practice. Yeah.

Which is what they said about Daniels too today, by the way. I know, but Sharps think he's out. I'll just tell you that. They think he's out. I do too. All right. Next game, I think we're going to stay away, I think. Yeah, let's hear.

The Ravens coming off of a brutal loss again in prime time. Short week going to Kansas City. And Kansas City is catching two and a half points at home. Who thought this would ever happen? Seems like Xavier Worthy might play this week, which I guess is a big deal. Well, the loser goes to one in three, buddy. Can you imagine?

One and three. I mean, look, the only plays Kansas City, but it really depends on how you feel about their offense at the moment, right? Their run defense has been good. Like, I think they're going to be fine on defense. We saw with a little bit of help down the field, Thor and open up the offense a little bit. If he's playing and worthy's playing,

they probably will be fine on offense, Matt, this week. I'm fine as a Chiefs fan just sitting at home and watching this game at 425 on Sunday without having any money on it. But it would be Chiefs or nothing for me. Yeah, I mean, this one just hits all of our radars as like, why wouldn't you just take the Chiefs here? So they played seven times these two quarterbacks. Chiefs are five and one, four and two against the spread.

Lamar, way better as a dog. Same with Mahomes. When his opponents are on short rest, the chiefs are eight and three, 18 and three straight up when Mahomes is quarterback. The thing that's so interesting here is this Derek Henry thing has been really confounding. He just hasn't had a great start to this season. these fumbles are really odd. Baltimore,

four and seven straight up when he rushes for under 100 yards with them, which is insane because he's rushed for over 100 yards 11 times in just over a season. So I think the play here obviously would be Kansas City just defending their home turf, being underdogs, turning things around,

you know, getting the monkey off of their back last week. And Baltimore just like continues to find a way to lose games. I don't know. I don't have a lot of conviction about other games on the slate this week, and this one just kind of feels like it's like, why not? I know this. I know, yeah, it's a maybe for me. We got four games left.

I think we can breeze through them, because I do want to get to college football, Matt, and we've been told that we have to be under an hour, otherwise people don't want to listen to us. So we have to make sure to follow the people. people in charge of us. So bears, Raiders, do you like anything in this one? I do.

I like the Raiders. Okay. I think the Raiders are catching a point in half at home. The Bears are coming off of a massive blowout win of Dallas where everyone thinks that the drought is over. I don't know. Like, can we see it? Can we see the bears go on the road? And, you know, Gino Smith coming off of two straight losses and everybody kind of being out

on a Pete Carroll team and selling the bears after a huge win. Like, can I interest you in any of that? The only reason I say no is just not really, to me, about the Bears. It's like the Raiders, I don't think, are very good. We were different on that in the preseason, right? You were high on the Raiders. I wasn't. Their offensive line is really bad.

Gentie has nowhere to run. Geno Smith, I kept telling everyone, I didn't think he was very good. I thought he was a little overrated compared to what we thought of him and what we want him to be, and he has looked that way so far. And look, we could see the bears sort of not hitting their final stride, but look, Kay the Williams looked better progressively at every week, Matt. And there's no saying he won't look well against the bad Raiders team. I would, maybe he's fine.

I mean, the maybe's, but I don't love it. If you want to put it in there, we certainly have that conversation. Well, something interesting is there's this stat that's been going around. Ashton Jentie has 145 total yards after contact. but only 144 rushing yards this year. So he's getting hit in the backfield pretty much every play. He did look a little bit more alive last week against the commanders. The Bears defense last in running back rush yards allowed before contact.

So in theory, this should be the spot where he could potentially break out. I just I just think people are writing off the Raiders too quickly. They do have a lot of talent. They will be able to play the run a bit better. I know last week they kind of got gashed, but it was a short week. It was a very interesting new offense with Murray. that they sort of had to see. Like, I just think that the Bears,

everyone's just where you, where you just were. I'm like, oh, maybe they figured it out. Maybe they're there. It's like, well, maybe the Raiders aren't going to be terrible.

Like, it's still a decent quarterback. It's still a great head coach. They still have some pieces on the defense. The Bears, by the way, the first couple weeks of the season, every quarterback could face them one player

of the week in their conference. Like, I do think the Raiders can put up points here. Possibly. I think that the Bears defense probably isn't great, because they've been a Cowboys team that lost the Oaks. CD Lamb immediately.

Speaking about the Cowboys, let's get to Cowboys Packers here. Do you like any of these last three games, by the way? I do not. Okay. So we can maybe be a little bit brief here. Yeah, I'll just,

let's touch them quickly. The Packers are like seven in Dallas and the Mike Parsons Bowl. I don't know. I think the Cowboys would be the side, but without Michael Parsons, it's sort of hard to do that, right? I'm sorry, without CD Lamb. Yeah, and the Cowboys are dummies for putting them a running back.

Like, So you can be a tackle by Noah Sewell. Like congratulations. You played yourselves there. Yeah, Cowboys are passed. Maybe the over again. It didn't get home against the Bears, but I think the over in Cowboys games this year

are going to be the play, Matt, each and every game. Yeah, I think that's probably right. It's Monday Night Football doubleheader this week. Jets, Dolphins is the first one. Jets, Dolphins, three-point favorites at home with the break. Yikes. I can't imagine a single person that wants to touch this. I mean, why are the dolphins the three-point favorite?

The dolphins are... You want to take the Jets? No, I'm just saying, I don't really... If you're taking a side of it's that. This is, look, after Saturday of football this weekend, where we have these monster big games, right? Oregon, Penn State, Georgia, Alabama. We have Sunday, obviously, Chiefs Ravens.

Monday, it feels like a reset night where you just sort of like, it's on the background, Matt, but you don't have to go hardcore into Miami football because these matchups just are not great. Yeah, these are rough, man. The second one is the Broncos link seven and a half to the Bengals. Jake Brown, I just don't know how you can take the Bengals or the Broncos, really. No.

And that's just such a tricky number. Yeah. So we're on that game. So let's get quickly to what we, I think we do like, okay, just very quickly. So I think we have three yeses so far, Matt. Okay. Tampa Bay, Carolina and the Rams. Are we good on those three yeses?

Love. Okay. We did like Buffalo and Detroit. Do you want to take one or the other? Do you want to throw them both out? We have Buffalo minus 15 and a half, Detroit minus 10. What else do we have? Kansas City, Vegas, and the Chargers.

Let's throw the Chargers out. Or do you want to keep a minute? Well, you like the Chargers. Yeah, but which, so I mean, okay, here's a deal. So would you rather take Buffalo minus 15.5, Detroit minus 10 and a half or the Chargers minus six? I'd rather take the two home favorites, right? yeah that's probably right yeah the chargers feel like a bit of a trap to me i i'd like to lay off of that

so yeah i think that i think buffalo is kind of a fun one um so so take the so take the troit out of it then and just take that buffalo is the one of the big favorites i think i'm okay with that what do you think of the raiders okay chiefs or raiders chiefs or raiders i think oh man i you're If you're out on the Raiders, let's take the Chiefs. Like the Chiefs are a responsible bet. Let me see. Do we have any information on our favorite people on the Chiefs or not yet? Do we know?

I do not. No, I'm curious because like this does, you know, I know you think it's crazy sometimes, but there are people that we do trust, like essentially one person. I know nothing yet, nothing yet. There are bad people, though, on Baltimore, though. The records are, I've shown that. A lot of money on.

But do we take both of them and kick out Buffalo in the 15 and a half? We could do that. I think one of them is going to win. Like one of them is going to cover either the Raiders or the Chiefs. I don't know which. Would you rather just have Kansas City though? Yeah. Yeah, I would.

Okay. So 10 plus three and a half, Buffalo minus 15. A half. Carolina plus five and a half, Rams minus three and a half. Chiefs plus two and a half, Matt. Does that work for us? Let's lock it in, brother. I think there's a three and two in there somewhere.

I'm going to five and oh for once. Okay. Here we go. This is a tricky week. Your, your terrapins. Actually, we have to take a break, I think still. So let's take a break. One more break.

Let's take a break. What a T is. We're coming back to talk Maryland football. Let's go. Who killed me last week. We'll do that next. Be right back. Okay, Matt.

We're back. Your terrapins screwed me last week. And I'm disappointed about it. That's on you for betting against Malik, brother. That's on you. Well, you scored third. took the under 16 and a half. You scored 13 points on your own and 14 points off turnovers. I was sort of right on that. But nonetheless, let's get back to what I really, I do well in

college football. I will give you, we'll talk about the big games and then we'll talk about some, I like some ugly sides. This is like, great cultural ball. Okay. Oregon, Penn State this weekend. My ducks go to Penn State. Penn State's off a buy, Matt. It's a whiteout. So they have 730 Eastern game. They are the veteran team. Oregon brings a young team to Happy Valley. Oregon only has eight players starting in this game that started in the Big Ten Championship game against Penn State, only eight guys that play in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State. So it's a younger team.

But, you know, this game is really fascinating to me because it reminds me a lot of Georgia, Tennessee, where Georgia goes on the road, Tennessee comes out early, hits them, bang, boom, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. And Georgia just stayed alive. They stayed alive. They clawed their way back and they won the game in the end. I think Oregon's on that same path where if you can withstand Penn State off a buy, what they have going for you, you can win this game.

And I don't trust Penn State's offense right now. Drew Aller is not good. Their quarterback. I get it. Like so people say, well, they haven't played anyone yet. They haven't to show anything. Eh, it's kind of bad excuse. Like, we see other teams that are good, play bad teams, and they kick their ass on offense.

I don't, so, you know, I don't buy that. So the way I would play this game for those who are curious, I think a Penn State first quarter wager would be the way I would go, or like a first, even a first quarter under for the game. And then as the teams figuring each other out, I think Oregon's going to have to take a little bit of time to get used to the environment and get used to playing in this game. And they can withstand that.

It's, to me, they can withstand and win the game. the game under also entices me if you win a half right now in draft kings there are some issues that we're both off at the tackle so i think each defense can exploit and so i'm just really curious see how this game goes but that's how i would play the game we're looking forward to it though matt yeah that's a great one good challenge for your guys um do you have a bama georgia take so my bama georgia take is is that um this is not so i'm going to relate this a little bit to kansas City, but not this Kansas City team. But there were times when

the Chiefs were favored by three, Matt, and you're just like, yeah, duh, of course the Chief's going to win and cover this game. That's something about Georgia. Yeah, of course they're going to, they're Georgia. Now, I get Alabama has won a lot of games against Georgia recently, and I get that maybe

is that's why the number is so low. But you sort of have a Georgia team that didn't play terribly well against Tennessee at times. Obama team is we know that. it has played better since week one obviously um this team is at georgia they've won something like 30 street home games it's a hard place to play and i get kind of a i think i'm sort of a pissed off georgia team like we're three point favorites what the hell is this and i like georgia a lot in this game man like this to me is a buddy of ours dan rubinstein always says like an under think express

essentially is that's something like just underthink it man georgia's the side in this one that's uh it's i i kind of agree with you i think this is they're getting a little bit of mike vrable kickback here of uh the glory days maybe maybe tainting this number a bit um go ahead any other any you mentioned some ugly sides there's a lot of good games this week yeah well yeah this one is uh so i like houston at oregon state minus 13 a half chusons off a buy they are really good on defensive of all the seventh country and points per driving they played Colorado and like Rice and some podong teams, but the beavers outright stink mat. Just lost Oregon 41 to 7.

They're back home. There's no home for advantage in this game. They're sort of beaten and broken. They've got their butts kicked now in many, many games this season. They haven't looked good. And I just think that this is a tough spot, for example, off a rivalry game, off an emotional game with Houston fresh off a buy, the way they play defense. I like Stanford minus two and a half against San Jose State.

When you have two, when you have two bad teams, if I can get one good thing about one team, that's what I'd like. In this game, Stanford's running back is really good. It gets a lot of yards after contact and a lot of explosive runs. And San Jose State particularly isn't good at tackling. And I think this is like, when you have one thing you do well, then the other team who is stink,

Both teams are bad, Matt. I lean to Stanford here, which I know I get it. It's ugly. It is what it is. The other ugly game I like at the moment. UCLA getting six points at Northwestern. UCLA? Oh, my goodness.

So let me spend my reasoning here. Obviously, their coach got fired. Both teams off a buy. But just roster construction. And this does matter, Matt. I know people don't think it matters. But you see it with Maryland now. if you have more players that are better than the other team,

you win a lot more games. I know it's a really simple thing to say. Like, for example, like Malik Washington, right, five-star quarterback, he's pretty freaking good. He's better than Billy Edwards, who you had last season, right? Like, he's still young. He's better. The Bruins have better players.

Now, they haven't played to that standard yet so far this season, but they have they fired their coach. They have an extra week to prepare, so Northwestern, by the way. and they're just better. This number to me is way too big for two teams that if you were to say that Bruins were playing a touch better entering this game, this would be a pick-em.

This means just too many points, Matt. So I like these ugly sides. This is college football in a nutshell, man. I think college football on a nutshell is Lane Kiffin commenting on a post that his daughter posted dating the LSU linebacker and him saying take the over. I think that is college. football in a nutshell right there. That is just pure insanity. Hit my radar. That is college football.

He knows the number very, very well. That's one thing he knows. The thing he knows. There's also like two games this weekend in the Big Ten that are very much like NFL handicaps that are hard for me to get to, which is Iowa laying seven and a half, excuse me, taking seven and a half points at home against Indiana off that big, that big win. Like this is like a home dog seven and a half. It's very much an NFL type mindset, right? Where, again, conference

opponents, you're off of a big win. But I think Indiana might blow them out again back to back weeks. I mean, my dominant Iowa. Another one's Illinois, getting six and a half at you hosting USC off that loss. I was going to be hard to get to get to the door with. But again, the three

ones I like, and I have wagered on. Houston, Stanford, UCLA, Matt. Those are my three wages in pocket as of today. At Jeff Schwartz on social media. Twitter, I post my plays. I think I'm now, what am I? I was 11.

I think I'm 14. No, I was 8 and 6 this week. I think I'm 11 and 10 in cultural football. So a little slow start. Two of me plays last week. I double dipped. I did too many dumb stuff. Men you much shorter this week.

Tampa Bay plus three and a half. Buffalo minus 15 and a half. Carolina plus five and a half. Rams minus three and a half. KC plus two and a half. That's our five NFL plays plus the three college plays. All right, buddy. Let's get better than one and four this week.

We'll talk to you guys next week, everyone. Take care of everybody. We got this. We got it. Let's go.