Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Chiefs Quest for Three is Underway and NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Episode Date: September 6, 2024

Geoff is back alongside Matt for the first edition of thier NFL Best Bets series. Tune in for the five best plays against the spread for week 1 of the NFL season, plus Geoff's instant reactions to the Chiefs' win over the Ravens on Thursday Night Football.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, September 6th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz with Smart on You. We are back for the football season on Friday's Matthew. We have, just like Jamar Chase and IU and Trent Williams, we've held out long enough, but we have our deals in place. Not really, but we're glad to be here with you guys for the National Football League season,

as we're going to do every Friday like we did last season. We're going to recap Thursday Night Football, talk about Chiefs-Ravens in a second, as we're going to do every Friday, like we did last season. We're going to recap Thursday Night Football, talk about Chiefs-Ravens in a second, and we're going to pick our five favorite wagers of the National Football League weekend. This weekend, oddly, we have a Thursday and a Friday game. We have games on Sunday and on Monday. Matt, buddy,

how are you doing? I'm excited for the show as usual. Coming off a 55% year, if you listen to the show, you're going to be you're going to have a profitable football season what's i mean what's what's there not to like about that right joe we've done this show now for i think six football seasons and we've gotten to the point where we could guess each other's wages we're going to keep you guys guessing about what we're going to pick throughout the show again we'll go through all the games that we still have to play

but let's talk about the game from last night chiefss and Ravens. Chiefs to win 27-20 by just an inch is the lively out of bounds there at the very end. Two takeaways, Matt, quickly. One, the Chiefs are better, which is scary for the NFL. They've won three Super Bowls in the last five years and they're better now. The ability offensively to do more

with the healthy group of wide receivers, and Brown's not even there right now, we can tell how confident they looked this game defensively to do more with the healthy group of wide receivers, and Brown's not even there right now. You can tell how confident they looked this game, just from a vibes feeling, but also just they played well against zone coverage, against man coverage. They blocked really well with a rookie left tackle. He struggled a little bit, but it looked fine.

27 points with a couple mistakes, a bad turnover, some drop passes, man. Mahomes was 20-28. He looked really good. But the more important thing I want to talk about, Matt, with you is Lamar Jackson. He was fabulous for most of the night. But the difference in this game was Mahomes made those extra plays and Lamar did not. I'm not even talking about missing Zay Flowers at the end there. He even said he wasn't even throwing to Zay Flowers.

He was throwing to Bateman. But there were other throws in this game where just the wide receiver was open, and he just missed him. And Lamar's a dynamic player. Two MVPs, future Hall of Famer. But the difference in this game to me, and the difference that we'll see throughout maybe their careers, is Mahomes makes those special throws on the move, on the run, in the pocket.

And Lamar just missed on a couple of those in this game. And that was a difference. It was. And I, you know, there's a lot of takes about Lamar today. I got to say, like the Ravens coaching staff did not totally seem like they were ready for this. Like, obviously they, you know, Lamar doesn't play all preseason. Neither did Henry. I felt like I knew what the Ravens, if the Ravens were running or passing every single play.

Like if it was a I formation, it was going to Henry. They stopped running the ball after the first half. Then Lamar, when he started getting out of the pocket, good things started to happen. You've got to give him credit for keeping them in the game. By the third quarter, it felt like it wasn't even a game. It didn't even feel like the Ravens belonged on the same field as the Chiefs.

Then they came back. I have a list of winners and losers from last night, Jeff, that I wanted to go through. Okay, let's do it. All right, so first winner. I'm going to say the Thursday night football opener. I don't really remember when they started this, but it's really starting to feel like a thing.

The game is always marquee. It rarely, if ever, disappoints, in my memory at least. I felt like that's really a good way to kick off the season. It's something I look forward to every year we'll see about the friday thing uh let's go with another winner kevin durantz now not the only guy with the toe on the line like that's good for him good for his brand uh chief special teams unit headlined by harrison butker and matt oreza not a talking point today that's good that's good for everybody uh raven's offensive line names we've got linderbaum and rosengarten next to each other i just that just made me happy

they were a good winner uh some losers jeff okay everyone who said the kickoff rules were going to change our lives like nothing was different nothing happened with these kickoff rules that everyone's been spending a whole offseason being like just wait just wait nothing changed if anything i was angry that that so much air has been spewed about these stupid rules the chiefs just kicked about the end zone every single time and took the five yard difference just like they have to make that ball they think i put the ball 40 to get teams not to do like they'll be 35 like we're not we're not risking we're not risking this at all maybe the loser in general is rule changes like what was going on with all these illegal formation penalties like i could

not believe what i was watching there was like three plays in a row to start the game for baltimore so ronnie stanley is very upright in his stance and the rule is your head has to sort of break the the center's waistline even though they really just say your center has to break his butt at all and he just he's very upright in his stance it looks like at times he's not aligned correctly and i get the rule but like after one time especially with a veteran like that like enough enough like we get it you want to call it harsh and and then like let's not do it again i just thought it was overkill four and four or five of them like it was it was aggressive like let let them play okay a few a few happen that's fine call them um but after that just just let the veterans play uh we're not here to watch the

officials uh throw flags yeah i mean all this stuff about like oh the refs are in bed with the chiefs like i'm over it but it did seem a little bit strange that that was happening and so i'm gonna actually say a loser in this is the chiefs they've used up a lot of their karma in the first week of the season and it's starting to get that like early like 2017 warriors vibe where people are like come on like i'm done with these guys like it's starting it that last night was the first time where i felt like sports twitter was like all right like we're doing this again i feel like they're kind of teetering jeff so i'm gonna call them a loser for that and my last loser is is irony there was a commercial that had football players as gladiators

like i'm sorry like what are we doing like five years ago that wouldn't have even been like allowed in a pitch meeting and now we're just like totally going for it um i the the chiefs is villains thing villains that to me are good for sports matt like the chiefs and they embrace this obviously like having nf everyone root against them i think it's good for sports um obviously you don't win three super bowls last five years you know without some breaks i don't think it's officials every every time they play a game those like mom's got hit late that one time they didn't call it i mean that just is sometimes they just don't they don't call everything they see it's just the way it is there's no the official did not impact that game

at all in my opinion um chiefs continue to win a lot of games they're gonna be good they're gonna you know it's it's crazy to me that we're gonna get to december matt we're gonna talk about home field advantage and we're gonna talk about a toe being being out of bounds as the reason why one team has home field and one team does not because the tiebreaker now goes to the Chiefs. The Ravens have to be two games clear of them. Well, one game clear, obviously, but it takes two extra games now. They're already one game back. So it's a lot of work for Baltimore to even get back to even

and then obviously move ahead of them. All right, Matt, because we are limited on time, we'll still get through all the games, though. Let's start getting into our wagers for the week again, guys. We're going to choose five. These have been out for a long time, since May. Matt and I know who we're taking. I don't think there's going to be

much wishy-washy in what we're doing here. But we're going to go through them anyways. We'll give you our five, or six, or seven, or eight. We'll pare you our five or six or seven or eight we'll pair down to five by the end of this show we'll put them in the super contest um and uh let's let's not we're gonna okay matt we're using lines they're available now on friday correct yes okay all right um let's do it start with the third with the friday night game in brazil to be clear

we know what we're wagering because we've done this for so long. We have not discussed this. I know you appear on other podcasts. I do not listen to them. I refuse to acknowledge them because this is your podcast, not the other ones with the professional bettors and guys who actually know stuff about football. I choose to focus on this one exclusively. So let's start our efforts with the Brazil game tonight.

Latest line is 2.5, I think, for Philly. 2, 2.5. I would say Green Bay is probably my side, but I think you kind of have to be a psycho to bet on this game, no? Oh, 100% agree on the psycho part of it. I have nothing on this game. It is just a spot where the Eagles have new coordinators. Without Jason Kelsey, that offense is offense can be different, Matt.

I got to see it first, right? And Green Bay is going to always praise this offseason. They played well at the end of last season. But again, there's a difference. We'll get to another game where I really like this part of the handicap, where like when you enter a season with the expectations, how do you play in week one, week two, week three, week four? Because a lot of times you come into a season like the Packers did last year

without expectations. No one lot of times you come into a season, like the Packers did last year, without expectations. No one's talking about you. You won a playoff game last season, and you play competitive in the next round. How do you handle an entire audience, everyone telling you you're good, and you thinking you're good? So to me, stay away game, in Brazil too,

I don't like betting standalone games. I'm with you here. I lean Packers and under probably. I think Eagles run the ball off. You want to go, and I know this, hopefully you hear this on Friday, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley over rushing props would I think would be a good play here in this game,

but I don't have a side or total that I feel strongly about. Yeah, I'm with you. Let's see with all these Eagles coordinator changes how that starts out. Both teams start really strong every year so hard to pick a side they're also just weird brazil stuff uh so that's a pass for the jeff schwartz is smarter than you podcast i have a feeling this one will not be jeff the pittsburgh steelers on the road in atlanta kirk cousins come on off of an achilles tear

uh still favored by three and a half against tj watt and mike tomlin and the steelers oh boy are we doing this again so um what hank and uh and nick i think right they they make a list before the show what they think our wages are going to be and number one with steelers and they know us all too well because we're absolutely taking the steelers there's a three and a half right now uh out there floating around uh at uh draft kings uh for example um and we'll take pittsburgh plus the three and a half here okay look you listen to me this offseason i'm on every steelers under you could ever have wins points division wins russell wilson's props are not up matt i would take the unders in those but this is a mike tomlin special sure mike tomlin is an underdog or form is better than any coach in

the national football league this is where you bet the Steelers when they are ugly dogs no way they can win the game no way they're going to be close russell wilson's not very good he's hurt new offensive lineman but what are the falcons matt they have a 36 year old off an achilles tear who's never played with anyone on this team he's not played yet he hasn't played a preseason game at all ever with this team the the addition of judon simmons are great on defense but still question marks on defense give me steelers here plus three and a half i no brainer to me i think the half point's what does it for me um mike tomlin is as you know a stat we bring up all the time is profitable straight up as an underdog

uh in his tenure with the steelers he's the best coach in nfl history against the spread as an underdog you got to take him in these spots uh i think in i mean look pittsburgh is always kind of wonky at the beginning of the year we love them last year against san francisco they fell flat on their faces the year before. I think it was that wacky Cleveland year where it was – I forget if they won, but they definitely covered. Pittsburgh is just – Five turnovers they forced?

Yeah. And, I mean, I do think that these first year – I mean, Raheem Morris has been a coach before, but it's a first-year coordinator. Like, there's a lot going on on both sides of the ball for Atlanta. Like, I don't think that this means quite as much to them. year coordinator like there's a lot going on on both sides of the ball for the atlanta like i don't think that this means quite as much to them they also have an easy schedule all year where pittsburgh like they go in these massive chunks of just brutal team after brutal team uh they're

better team with tj wild on the field there it's it's ridiculous they're splits i think you just got to take pittsburgh here unless you know five other bets jump out to you but you're pick and pull no matter what you gotta take pittsburgh with especially yeah i'm yeah i'm on i'm we're in pittsburgh here sorry very very sticky side but uh that's not really all right i mean what's next yeah who knows who the quarterback is but you know between doesn't really matter um all right next one we've got a florida battle the jags are headed south to the dolphins uh three three and a half depending where you look now the wild card in this one is the weather right there's going to be a massive

rainstorm i think in miami uh which is concerning i'm going to check that while you start to explain what you think on this game i mean it's jacksonville or nothing for me in this game right um you know i just i i the dolphins play well against and cover against a really bad team. I don't think Jacksonville is really bad, Matt. Right. I think that they're going to bounce back from last season. They just excuse me, catch the ball a little bit more. Are you getting a different team? Right. I'm so emotional about this. I mean, I don't have a hard take on this other than I think it's Jacksonville or pass. I'm not laying three and a half with Miami in this game. I actually think Jacksonville is kind of an interesting play here. Basically.

So it looks like actually that as of now, Friday morning Pacific, that the weather on the Sunday is pretty clear, high humidity, but actually sunny. We know that Trevor Lawrence does not do well in rain, that he's a fumble machine. But I actually think that this is a pretty good spot for them. I mean, i don't really know what people think miami is but i don't this would

have been probably like one of their best wins last year if they were to beat a team like jacksonville absolutely and you know miami has a lot of has a decent amount of change right on the defensive side they're still figuring out their injuries both waddle and hill are injured uh so i think that this is probably a pretty close game um so i i'm cool with jacksonville plus three and a half at least as one of our contenders but uh i'm not i'm not gonna like you know stand on the table for this one but i do think it's a pretty good play yeah i think it would be to me it would be jacksonville or bust i'm trying to look at uh yeah all the money's on miami too which is not always the reason to bet on on a team by the way um but this situation again if you like a side it's good to see sort of where the money's at um you know there's some threes popping up too so i think

three and a half is is where we we play this with jacksonville but not not strong convictions i'm kind of curious where we find some other some other plays to be had okay well it's in the maybe list um okay next game as i potentially push my next meeting a bit and maybe buy us a little extra time to talk about two of your former teams the vikings and you played for the vikings right the vikings and the giants uh the giants are home dogs to sam darnold's They are getting a point and a half at home. Jeff, I'm sorry. We're doing it. We're doing this. Well, Bill Krackenberger, who I do radio with,

is a very sharp individual who moves numbers. He has Vikings money lined. I try not to be against Bill Krackenberger as much as possible. The Giants are really bad, Matt like and they're wearing those atrocious uniforms this weekend helmets are nice though I'll tell you that the Michigan throwback Michigan helmets basically look like Michigan helmets is this just you just taking this because it's the

it's a home dog essentially like the Giants just I think it'll be really really bad but Darnold on the road Darnold is the least profitable quarterback since he got into the league he is a road favorite on a team that like i'm i'm sorry like where exactly is minnesota better than the giants like running back offensive line wide receiver okay maybe but like okay derisaw thomas like okay sure their offensive line might be a bit better um but i just

think the giants hate is has gone a bit too far i mean this was a team that was competitive with tommy devito last year like i just think brian everyone just kind of just like lost it on this giants team and it's like wait a second are we we just say that brian abel just cannot coach like i'm not i'm not totally there yet. I just feel like the Giants are this team that the public has just no interest in betting on. And there's this love for Kevin O'Connell, who I also think is a good coach, but

I'm sorry. What about New York is so much worse that they should be four and a half points different than the Vikings are? I just think that this is a ridiculous line for Darnold on the road as a favorite like i think this is just you have to situationally just play this like also we should know i wish i had the stat in front of me but these small home dogs in week one absolutely crush it they win i think 67 70 of the time in this exact spot so this is

just one of the like you can't really look at the two teams And there's always a wacky team that wins And we won And by the way Could Minnesota just completely bust this year? They're kind of this weird team With terrible quarterback They're old in some spots, they're young in some spots

Sure, they have Justin Jefferson, great Giants have unique neighbors They both are kind of the same team So I feel like I'm crazy Being out there Great. Giants have elite neighbors. They both are kind of the same team. So I feel like I'm crazy being out there for the Giants on this one, but I think they're the better team and they're home dogs. I'm just confused about this one. I think you're on an island for taking the Giants here.

I put in the maybes. You mentioned upsets in week one, the wonky result. There's a game I certainly feel like is going to be wonkier than this result. They're only a one-point dog at home. It's open by the way. Giants favored by one. Now Minnesota with ones and ones and a half all over the board. It hasn't moved. There's a couple twos popping up now. Maybe the sharp money is on

the Vikings here. We'll put the Giants in a maybe. How about that, Matt? This is the one that if I'm like, all right, I have to make this case. Dayball 22-13 and one against the spread with the Giants 63%. So, I don't know. I just, I think this is a little bit of a value, but I get that no one's going to want to do it. All right.

Speaking of lines that have moved, the Bears are now favored by three and a half over the Titans. This sat at four and a half for i feel like the entire summer and now here we are and the sharps have come in and pounded the titans i'm not totally surprised by that we've all seen the stats about uh number one quarterbacks in their first start uh it's a big number oh 14 and one correct so our what do you think i mean i think we missed the titans number but i would still hear a case for it i mean mean, above three, I think it's playable, right, Matt? I think four, obviously, would be better, especially with the way the extra point system works out now where more points are missed. Here's a deal about why the working quarterbacks struggle in week one.

And Caleb Williams certainly is in a different situation than most, right, because of the Bears roster around him, right? Most teams suck to be number one. They trade into being number one, correct? right most teams suck to be number one they trade into being number one correct um is that it's when i was a young player matt my offensive line coach told me that there is different speeds to the season there's a preseason speed and there's a speed that goes from preseason to week one and then there's like a middle of season speed and then sort of a playoff push and then each playoff round gets faster there's a noticeable jump in the way the game is played from the preseason to the regular season kaylor williams has not experienced that yet right matt so even though we might not believe everything that the times are as a team there's going to be

just a faster game played in front of him on sunday that's why rookies don't play well in that first game it's just a lot different than he's ever seen in his entire life and the times i'm preparing this for months now i'm okay taking the three and a half because i think it's still it's just a lot different than he's ever seen in his entire life and the times i'm preparing this for months now i'm okay taking the three and a half because i think it's still it's still above you know it's not the best of the number we're going to do what we can on fridays but to me tennessee plus three and a half is every every square every joe is taking the bears this weekend and you know that yep i mean so to be honest like to take a bigger picture look at tennessee like they're kind of like they're kind of a frisky team and i just feel like everyone is out of them they're not like a fun they're not a fun group they're an older team with all these

guys like tony pollard and deandre hopkins you've had in fantasy forever and probably burned you once or twice but like they signed legerius need in the offseason they have bill callahan coaching their offensive line obviously with the son as the head coach. Like, they kind of, they don't profile me as, like, this bad team. Like, they think they have a shot to win some games this year. I have a feeling they're going to come out and people are going to be like, huh, I didn't know they were this good. Like, they added the Northwestern kid right in the draft on the offensive line.

Like, I do feel like they're going to have a bit more firepower than people think. So, I like their win total over this year um they're pretty low so i i would be interested in tennessee as a spot here even even though we missed the number um i'm fine with three and a half as a as a firm firm to harden maybe okay firm to hard maybe i like that we're not even through the one o'clock games yet we've already got four on our list and i can just guarantee you that we're taking the next one and that is your hometown carolina panthers the worst team in the league they are getting four points in new orleans and i'm happy to say jeff that every single better i respect and follow seems to be on the same side of this which is the ugly carolina panthers side why don't you make my best bet on the same side of this, which is the ugly Carolina Panthers side. Why don't you make that case? It's my best bet on the Bear Bets podcast,

my other podcast. I love the Panthers in this spot. First of all, the Saints are not good, okay? They're not a good football team. Their offensive line is struggling right now. They've had to, instead of just slowly ripping the bandaid, like just like ripping it, and just doing the reset, Matt, right?

They're ripping it very slowly. Every couple of months they're like they're ripping it very slowly every every couple of of months or years they have to cut two more players cut two more players and trade a player away they're just ripping the band-aid off they're not doing that right and the panthers to me are just a sneaky team this year because they've upgraded everywhere okay they upgraded for agency they've created coaching staff upgraded front office dave canales can coach we know that he's going to get bryce down in a good spot in this game everyone's counting them out everyone thinks they can't win this game and if you want to do the derrick car numbers go ahead but derrick car is a favorite is freaking atrocious do not put your

money in derrick car as a favorite since he the league, he is ranked 165 out of 166 against the spread as a favorite. And then again, 165 out of 166. He is terrible on the spot. 317 and 1 his last 18 games as a favorite against the spread. Give me

Carolina plus 4 here in Sharpie. Done. It's one of our plays. Yep. Dennis Allen, 24 and 46 straight up as head coach worst among all active head coaches he's in the huge ass in territory uh when you talk about the head coaching record uh the saints like i'm like some people there's there are people out there who are smart who think that the saints could overperform this year i'm not one of them i think carolina you know they're not a good team, but I think they're going to be way better.

They had an atrocious year last year. Everything that went wrong could have. Let's see it. So I'm happy to get the four here. We can save time talking about the saddest game of probably the weekend, but the Panthers did not lead in the fourth quarter last year, right? So let's see if they can start with a straight-up win in week one. That's what side we're on what could go wrong um okay speaking of upsets this is a this is a trendy one that some people like which is arizona going to buffalo uh the bills are getting

or laying six and a half excuse me the cardinals a very trendy dog uh this season everyone seems to like them big spread for josh allen which is usually the spot where you actually want to take him and not fade him what do you think uh yeah we thought it was all the time the bills typically blow teams out or lose like there's no in between they don't win close games um i actually like the bills team total over 27 and a half the arizona carnell's defense is atrocious matt um i i don't have a sign in this game. I have the Buffalo Bills team total over. I would lean toward Buffalo here, Matt,

but we're not putting in one of our plays. I think this is sort of just a game you just watch on your eighth screen and just see what happens on Sunday. You'll find with that. I'm curious to see Marvin Harrison and this offense come together, but yeah, I don't come together but yeah i don't

know i i think i i don't i don't really have a sign on this one so we can just save the time um this one is interesting because this line has moved a lot that everyone's survivor pick this week is the bangles uh this line was at nine and a half forever and it's moved down to seven and a half some reports today that t higgins might not play jamar chase we don't really know what's going on joe burrows had this weird wrist injury that i do not think people are talking enough about Some reports today that T. Higgins might not play. Jamar Chase, we don't really know what's going on. Joe Burrows had this weird wrist injury that I do not think people are talking enough about this whole offseason. This game stinks to high heaven to me. You're certainly not taking the Patriots when you could have gotten them two points higher a day ago.

But I don't think you can take the Bengals either, right? What's your take on this game? It's a stay away. Here's why it's a stay away. you mentioned the patriots like you're not taking the patriots now i'm not even sure at nine it was great either i know we text about this weeks ago matt like you you were maybe looked at the patriots at plus nine they're just so inept offensively i gotta sort of see it first i can make a case for the panthers i mentioned like being better on offense the case of the the there's no case for the Patriots. There's just no case for that, you know? So I can't do it. Now, the Bengals, to me, there's a little bit of a thought process of,

look, it's a very college football thing, but we can win this game without Jamar Chase and Higgins. We need them to be healthy to play Kansas City in two weeks. And I wonder if there's a thought process behind that. Like, let's just get through this week with whatever we need. Now, that's not an NFL thing to do, Matt, because if you do that in the NFL, you lose a lot. It's more of a college football thing, right?

You hold someone out and they're ready to go next week. But the Bengals will certainly be thinking that. Like, we don't need these guys this weekend. T. Higgins now, by the way, I think is doubtful for this game, which means he's probably not playing. Again, I have no play on this one, but I can see the Bengals just saying like, we're packing this in. We're going to win

by one point, two points, three points. I just try to get out of this weekend. Get ready to play the Chiefs. Yeah, I like that. I think you're right. I think the Bengals tend to hold some bullets in the first couple weeks of the season anyway. So yeah, I think they probably win. They're the Bengals tend to hold some bullets in the first couple weeks of the season anyway. I think they probably win. They're probably still my survivor pick,

which feels super clunky and scary, but this is a tough week to predict. No Panthers for me in Survivor, although it sounds like that was one of your leads. Yeah, it was one of mine. We're going big with Panthers. I love that so much. All right, AFC South battle.

Everyone's America's team now the texans are road favorites in indy uh two and a half or three even if you are interested in the colts uh i would potentially be interested in the colts but what do you think i think i think we have to play the colts i think there's no there's no question that we put the colts here um remember last year when the colts almost beat the Texans to win the division last season with the team they had? And now they're at home in week one with a whole year to prepare for this game again.

And we're going to get a good number. We're going to get three right now because they ain't going to be three on Sunday. We're going the other direction. I think we're the Texans. I think they're really good. I think you think they're really good. But now they enter the season, Matt, as a team that everyone thinks is really good.

Different vibe. You're not sneaking up on anybody, you know? So divisional home dogs in week one are a great wager, getting points. So I think Colts plus three is absolutely a play we put in, especially as we have it right now at plus three. Yep. I also think, you know, there's a couple things to consider. I mean, there's this trend that the Colts are 2-13-1 straight up

since 2008 in week one. So a lot of people are like, you can't take the Colts. And I'm usually one of those guys, but quite frankly, like totally different eras, like what happened with Andrew Luck and I don't know who, like Jim Caldwell and Frank Reich and whoever else, like that doesn't matter to today's team. is like what happened with andrew luck and i don't know who like jim caldwell and frank reich and whoever else like that doesn't that doesn't matter to you know today's team um by the way stroud three and five against the spread is a favorite last year six and three against the spread is a

dog and if you even think about that psychologically like people like betting on fun dogs like cj stroud and the texans were last year the texans also, if you think about just the course of their season, they had this late surge after Trevor Lawrence got injured, Jacksonville fell apart. They're very good. They're a Super Bowl contender for sure. I think they're still a little bit overrated, and this could be the week where it's like,

huh, they're facing this weird Colts offense with Anthony Richardson that we haven't really seen since he was just starting in the NFL last year. You've got this coach in Shane Steich that everyone really likes. You mentioned the situational spot of home divisional dogs in Week 1. It's one of those auto things you have to bet on every single year. I'm not rooting for the Colts, but I do think it's the smart play, and it should make our list. I'm with you. I'm in. And we get three.

This is just getting pushed and pushed in the right direction. By the time we finish the pot, it could be three and a half. I'm actually going to refresh and just make sure that it's not, but we'll take it at three. We're in the late window now, and we've got Denver at Seattle, two teams that have freed themselves

of Russell Wilson. We've got six, actually, for the Seahawks. Five and a half, maybe. What do you think? I have nothing on this game, Matt. I don't know if you do. People like the Seahawks a lot this year. We don't know what their head coach is going to be.

I don't really understand that. We're giving Mike McDonald this sort of status as kingmaker in Seattle. A lot of people are in Seattle, Matt. I don't get it. I'm surely not on Bo Nix's first road start as a rookie getting six points. I think it's just a stay-away game. I want to watch and see Seattle with a new coach.

I want to see Bo Nix making his first road start in the NFL in a loud environment in Seattle. I mean, look, if I had to give a wager, I'd probably take the Broncos, but I don't feel great about it, so we'll leave it out. Cosign, I couldn't agree more on every single thing you just said including that i'm a little bit out on the seahawks everyone thinking that just changing from pete carroll to this you know whiz kid from from baltimore like it's pretty rare that a hot shot like i don't know these defensive coordinators can come in and like turn around. Robert Sottle is a good example.

But also, moving on from Pete Carroll does not necessarily mean that it's an upgrade. Are we sure that Geno Smith is going to be good without a Hall of Fame head coach there? Are we sure about that? I'm afraid in Seattle in the season, by the way. That's one of those things I

would have said if we had chosen the offseason a bit more. But I do think that Denver is a little too risky here um all right a home game for the las vegas raiders here in los angeles uh they play the chargers the chargers are laying three this this line hasn't budged i this i've stared at this a long time and i'm getting more and more intrigued by the chargers but what do you think so i feel like one game an episode we just do not talk about and this is going to be the one okay fair enough i have i have just no idea buddy i know i got no handicap in this game chargers brand new coach i know everyone's high on jim harbaugh's turnarounds in year one he certainly has done that but justin herbert training camp came out healthy now

but had a foot injury who who's explosive wide receiver it's just a lot of questions at san diego in los angeles whatever and the raiders i think just stink so like i i'm i know a sharp group took the chargers minus three they have taken that um but i'm not I can't put Chargers. We got too many other good wagers in here to put the Chargers minus three in Jim Harbaugh's first game against the Raiders. Yeah, they might be a survivor play for me with all these weird question marks out there because I don't see them losing this game. I see them.

I don't think that Pierce's staff is going to out-scheme Harbaugh's. No, no way. I think that the Chargers are going to have a very interesting feel to them like they have this big physical feel um so i i like the charters i i think you know straight up i would be happy to take them but just feels a little bit strange we could look back on this and just say why didn't we do that but for now no thanks uh some good the rest of the games are fun cleveland's is hosting dallas yeah uh cleveland's up to two and a half points and i have a feeling that if you're listening to this you should

probably check and see what the odds are because this is going to come back down i think to two or one and a half um i like cleveland but i'm not a huge fan of this number considering it's it's moved so much but yeah i think um so the reason i i think we can't play cleveland is too much unknown offensive line heading to this game at the tackle position and deshaun watson like who knows i just i just i matt i have the browns in the division at plus 600 like i think the browns are good team but i don't know what i get from deshaun watson this first start especially if left tackle is a concern and you have you know parsons and lawrence rushing you you know i mean like that to me is is the problem here with with uh taking the browns on the flip side tyler guyan left tackle for the

cowboys rookie against miles garrett rookie center starting on the road for the first time like to me it's an under game i did tease the cowboys i went from two and a half up to eight and a half with the colts so i have a colts cowboys teaser colts plus nine cowboys plus eight and a half um this is gonna be a one touchdown game either direction in my opinion uh i would say i would i'm gonna text you early in offseason i took browns plus one like that would have been my my first wager i made uh of the regular of the offseason um but at two and a half although everyone's on the browns this weekend too like i just dude i think like 95 percent of the money is on the browns or something this weekend like it's an insane amount of money yeah there's

something stinky about this one and everyone's so down on dallas it's similar to how people are feeling about the giants where it's like, hold on. It's still Dallas. I don't think we got a good side and I'm not into Dak as a dog on the road out of the division. Those are places where you don't want to bet him. Pass, I think Cleveland has a really strange feeling to me.

I don't exactly know what they're going to be this year. They know what they're going to be. Dallas too. This team, this game, they're going to be this year. They know what they're going to be. Yeah, well, Dallas too. Okay, this team, this game, you're going to have to just make the decision because you know where I'm going to stand on this. The Commandantes of Washington are three-and-a-half-point dogs in Tampa. All the money's on the Commanders. I kind of like it, but I think the people need to hear you're sober,

not influenced by over-leveraged on Jane Daniels' ROTY tickets, what your take is. Yeah, you can't bet the commanders here. We just talked about number one picks having first-round picks, rookies making their first start. They suck if they don't cover the spread ever. Tampa Bay, they won the division last year. They're not a schmucky team. They're're a good team um i think it's tampa or pass i don't think we

play tampa mac then we have other ones i like better but to me the commanders are just not a play right now how do you feel about the commanders talk go you know go for a minute on the other commander season just generally or this week generally i'm excited for them and i think i actually think this is not a bad spot for them because i think their offense is going to have a lot of weird wrinkles that the league is going to catch on to like every other kingsbury's you know run through the nfl um i think i think they're going to be fun i think they're going to be a team that if if dallas and philly were to take a bit of a slide, could make some noise that's like an 8 or 9 win team.

Like them over, I think they have a massive coaching upgrade across the board. I think they upgraded every single position they could have. So I think they're going to be a fun team this year. Does that mean they're going to the playoffs or anything like that? Not sure, but I do

think Jaden Daniels is going to be the best rookie this year i think uh few years of experience what he brings to the table in terms of just like accuracy and mobility like he's he seems special from from what i've seen so far so like a um like a um um uh working the year You have tickets for them? I have a lot of tickets for him. I asked our producer, Daniel, to get another one for me. He's going to Vegas this weekend. I think that he'll get more credit than Caleb will, because Caleb has three guys who could be pro bowl receivers,

and this team that everyone thinks is really good, and everyone just thinks Washington stinks. The fact that they won the many games that they did last year which was four with the coaching staff that they had uh is actually kind of remarkable but regardless this is probably a pass i would lean i think betting the over on this one could be pretty interesting i think this could turn into a track meet with two pretty i agree with you on pretty uh unimpressive defenses. Speaking of unimpressive defenses, the Rams and the Lions, a playoff rematch. What a fun game this is going to be. I cannot believe this.

I'm going to double check that I'm right here. No, it just popped up to four and a half. This is shocking to me. I don't understand this. Yeah, so a lot of sharp money must have come in on Detroit today. Well, you look at the Rams, right? at they just shuffled their offensive line again lost aaron donald i think the lions are winning the nfc map i think they're really good um so i think it's just a tough spot for the rams on the road with an again new offensive line shuffle around new guys on defense like who emerges leaders on that side of the ball um he's at four though she's four and a half four and a half i

think you got it you got to take you got it if you're taking a side of this you have to take the rams uh the spread in this oh yeah at four and a half in the postseason when they played i think was three and a half and it was a one point Detroit. Granted, there was a lot more nerves there. Jared Goff is the best. He's undefeated against the spread in week one, which is kind of interesting, but McVay obviously is responsible for some of that. He's incredible with extra rest. I'm back where I was last year on the Rams. It's Stafford and McVay. It's a team that invested a ton in offensive line,

has two all pro level receivers. They'll figure it out on defense like they always seem to do. Like, I just like this team. So I would say the four and a half is very, very interesting. I'm not sure I like it more than what else we have on the board, but I wouldn't mind taking them here. No, I think it's Rams or I think it's Rams or pass in this situation. Yeah.

But nothing that I like better than anything else. Over is interesting. 52 is high. The highest of the week, I think, right now. It's attracting inside. The Lions play, what, 14 or 17 games inside, which is insane. Yep. First game outdoors is Lambeau, week 13.

But it's the middle of the year though so it's not even cold lambo yet yeah yeah and like they play there every year like it's not a big surprise um yeah i don't know so i'm gonna put that as our seventh because i have six other maybes yeah we got six that's the sunday night game the monday night game is i don't i can't imagine you have a side on this one. It'll be fun to watch. The Jets and the 49ers, the Niners are like four and a half. A team that's had a lot of turmoil. I guess the side would be the Jets, but how can you be confident in what they bring to the table with Rodgers

and all this stuff that's going on there, unless you have a feeling about it. Matt, I'm sure you can't wait to when you're working and Jack's of age to just run open the door and scream at you. My kids just came in the house and asked where the dog is. Even though I told them this morning, the dog is going to be with the trainer.

You guys get home and he's going to knock on the door at 3.30 and you're going to answer the door and you're going to bring Fo inside. Come upstairs, yell. I'm like, I'm working, kids. I'm working. You met my kids, by the way. Now you get it.

Yeah, I have. They're great. Very polite. My kids are actually great. They're great. Very polite. My kids are actually great. They're great children. There's no play on this game. I have. This was like six, and then Niners offseason,

turmoils happen, right? Contract disputes and whatnot. They get almost everyone back. I think everyone back, right? Brent Iyuk back. Trent Williams back. Christian McCaffrey's back healthy, unfortunately, right? Pierre Saul.

I mean, dude, not to make light of and joke about a situation like that, but getting shot in the chest and being at the facility the next day, pretty badass. Yeah. Like, holy heck. But the thing about the Jets is same thing I mentioned with all the other teams Aaron Rodgers

has not played with any of this offense he has not played a preseason game these are brand new tackles he's not played with any of the preseason training camp is training camp I get that but this feels like a slow start for this Jets team right in this game

so to me it's a stay away I'm glad there's only one money night game this season matt normally there's two um but what what what do we do in the weekend niners jets i'm just gonna watch the game i'm not gonna have any money on this one yeah me too if i wasn't a coward i would probably bet the jets like i just think their defense travels really well i do think that the lack of practice for iuke is going to matter i think the lack of practice for Ayuk is going to matter. I think the lack of practice for Trent Williams is going to matter. Christian McCaffrey banged up could matter. But, like, how can you actually say, like, sure, Robert Sala and Aaron Rodgers on the road at national television. Like, we just made the case for Kirk Cousins not being super healthy week one.

Like, why would we think that Aaron Rodgers, who practiced less, will be healthy? So, you got to be a gambler to bet on that one. But God bless you if you do. week one like why would i think they're rogers who practice less will be healthy so you gotta you gotta be a gambler to bet on that one but uh god bless you if you do so we're looking at the slate we've got i'm including the rams as a seventh maybe because i'm looking at these teams and i'm like i i don't know what exactly where we went wrong with our list but why don't you read back we're fine you want to read them? Sure. We've got Pittsburgh. I just have the teams we like. Pittsburgh plus three and a half at Atlanta.

We're going to just write a checkmark next to that one. I'll write a checkmark next to Carolina plus four at New Orleans. I have those two in already. I think we're going to say checkmark to Indy plus three. Those are the three that I have already in Sharpie. We're doing those three. Okay, great. We have two spots for four games.

Jacksonville plus three and a half at Miami. The Giants plus one and a half at home against Sam Donald's Vikings. Tennessee plus three and a half on the road at Chicago. And then the Rams plus four and a half against Detroit. This feels pretty easy to me. Can we add Tennessee? You want to add Tennessee? Yeah, you don't want to?

I just, I mean, we missed the number, you know? Dude, I'm going to have problems with the Giants in this. I know you want to play the Giants. You do, right? Of course. Here's the thing. I also did this last year too. This actually was a good thing.

I said, if you love something, we're going to do it. And it worked. You love the Giants. I can tell. I love the Giants. Fuck me. I love the Giants. Okay. So Giants plus 1.5. Okay. So Jacksonville, Tennessee, Rams. I think, look,

the Rams thing worries. I would say no to the Rams. Pass on the Rams. You weren't in on it. No. And I think Tennessee's the right side if you're gonna see it is i mean well okay so jacksonville they're the one we left on the table we did both like that one let's compare them you obviously do not like the giants so you would say jacksonville over the giants yeah but i put the giants in already i just well we can undo that unless you've already submitted it to wherever whatever sportsbook doesn't sponsor us that we're that we're submitting this to it's either it's jacksonville over tennessee or the giants

i so my god i don't know you love the giants though we're gonna play we're gonna play the giants just i think i think we just play the giants it's my conviction yeah we're doing so we're doing pittsburgh carolina indy new york and tennessee okay i like it okay so we have five dogs and five teams that will miss the playoffs and that all suck and that are not that are not fun to watch i don't think there will be one team i enjoy watching of that of those five no but that's but that's those the times when you when you win yeah man you don't you don't make money betting on jets niners you don't or chiefs except except last night yeah except all the time all right matt i know you have to go to a meeting i have to hang out with my kids i do like doing that by the way so i'm gonna look for i'm gonna i'm taking the local the local high school football game tonight. I'm taking the local high school football game. I'll watch the Brazil game on my phone, I guess.

Yeah, I don't like this Friday thing. I don't know. Very quickly, college football. I like Rutgers to cover, Washington, Nebraska, Michigan, and San Jose State. So that's what I'm on, Matt. Are you in the Terrapins this weekend? I have not studied for that, but I will just blindly say yes. They won by like

50 points last week, so why not? I'm looking forward to the Oregon- Maryland game next year. I think it's next year. Should we go? I wonder where it's at. Well, Morty committed to go to Rutgers next year. Oregon plays at Rutgers, and my best friend here in Charlotte went to

Rutgers. Well, your best friend here in Charlotte went to Rutgers. Your best friend in LA went to Maryland, so I can't imagine you have any other friends out here who matter more than me. We do not play Maryland next season. We play Maryland this season at Autzen November 9th.

November 9th? November 9th. Well, cool. I'll just wait for my invitation. You should fly up to that game. To watch us lose by 700. It's a sandwich game, though. We're at Michigan, Maryland, at Wisconsin. Ooh, a trap game, perhaps.

Trap game. The Terrapins come into town. God, I hope you wear your ugliest Under Armour uniforms. Yeah, the dude in Oregon has no ugly uniforms. Of course not. They don't. We look brilliant. Yeah, never. Enough rambling. Thank you, guys. I always enjoy doing this with you, buddy.

It's the best. I hope you're prepared for Sunday at about 105. What are we doing? How did you let me talk to you? How did you talk to me to the Giants? Fuck you. The Vikings are going to come down and score in How did you talk me into the Giants? Like you, like the fucking thing. I'm scoring four plays.

I'd be like, fuck you, Matt. Yeah. Excuse my language. Aaron Jones, 70 yard touchdown run. First play.

We're just cooked immediately. All right, everyone. We'll talk to you guys. Great to see you, buddy. Thanks for production staff. you