Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Conference Championship Recap

Episode Date: January 26, 2021

Geoff and Gabe break down the two Conference Championship games. They breakdown the seemingly unstoppable Chiefs, the lucky Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers' future. Plus, they begin to take a look forward towards the Super Bowl. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Tuesday, January 26th, and we have made it, guys. We've made it to the Super Bowl. It is the Chiefs and the Buccaneers. The best possible matchup for Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. I am Jeff Schwartz, alongside Gabe Guinn. Gabe got a haircut for today because he knew he would have to sit here and hear me talk about how great Tom Brady is. He has 10 Super Bowl.

He has more Super Bowl appearances now. Excuse me. He has tied for Super Bowl appearances with Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in the NFC. Tom Brady is the best thing ever. Gabe, how was your weekend? Why? Just don't do that. You're trolling. Like, you don't need to troll me, man. This is like a family affair. You're in the Super Bowl again. It's a happy day. Your predictions came true. You know, you've been nailing it on your guesses about how the season would play out. You don't need to come at me. I got a haircut. I look again it's a happy day your predictions came true you know you've been nailing it on your guesses about how the season would play out you don't need to come at me um i got a haircut i look like if

travis kelsey lost a hundred pounds of muscle and got a little uglier that's what i look like now because of my haircut uh you know jeff it was a hard weekend i got in trouble with my wife i was cursing a lot at the tv she didn't like that the kids were around it was hard man yeah i um i uh i sit kind of quietly when i watch games unless there's a gambling thing i get really i try not to i heard it from my family i don't think my family even knows that i gamble so that's good i guess bad i guess but nonetheless that of all things to keep secret you've kept that no my wife knows i gamble but she just doesn't care i don't know that's a difference or not like she doesn't really care you know what i do um i when i when i make some bets i join a league or i you know i get on somewhere and put some

i uh venmo in private mode to whoever i'm working with because i don't need i don't know why venmo ever has a public mode why does my wife need to know that I sent my guy Travis 100 bucks for you know picks like why would that ever be a public thing um it should not be a public thing my mind is completely private my Venmo uh I am sitting on a Tampa Bay Super Bowl future plus 1100 so I get to have some fun for the Super Bowl because it's the only future I made for the NFL as far as Super Bowl. And so there is a little hedge. We don't want to give away too much of who you're picking or why just yet. No, we do not.

Let's talk about the weekend that was. I'll just say it. The Chiefs are unstoppable. Please, God, let's just get to the part where they're going to Disneyland and like Zoom or whatever you're going to do this year. going to Disneyland and like Zoom or whatever you're going to do this year. You know, I don't want to have to worry about the Chiefs winning this Super Bowl because of what it would mean if Tom Brady won. I'm saying Chiefs by a million. You know, the only question is if it's close at times earlier in the game.

Jeff, give me something from this weekend that you saw from the Chiefs that I can get smarter about because all I saw was a perfect team, run a perfect offense, do plenty on D. They're going to dominate the Bucs, right? They should, yes. But the problem is, and I tweeted this out, I know you agree with me, is that the Bucs should have lost to the Saints too, and they should have lost to the Packers too. And guess what?

They're in the Super Bowl, so nothing is ever for granted. But let's talk about the Chiefs for a second. Guess what? Then the Super Bowl. So nothing is ever for granted. But let's talk about the Chiefs for a second. It's hard for me to think back to a time when we've had a team in the NFL turn it on like the Chiefs have. We've talked about this all season long.

And I have said, hey, guys, just be aware. The Chiefs keep telling us they're going to do it. Keep telling us they're going to do it. I got to see it, right? They have not covered in the last nine games. Now, obviously, if Mahomes plays against the Browns, they'd probably cover that game, but they didn't. I kept saying, guys, I need to see it.

I need to see this. We don't see this. Look at the Patriots team in 2007 that was undefeated. They weren't just, like, skirting by, right? They were dominating teams down the stretch. Even the Chiefs last season, they were dominating teams down the stretch. Our Pals Action Network, I believe Chris Rabon,

had this, like, the Chiefs would be the worst team to win a Super Bowl against the spread record since 2012, I believe. They're not blowing teams out. And I said, hey, I want to see them do it. And guess what? They finally did it. This is how they were stopped.

Tyreek Hill dropped a 40-yard pass on third down. Wide open. Dropped it. They allowed seven points, really six points, on a muff kick. Buffled the ball to three-yard line. Otherwise, the game would have won by 30 points. It wasn't even close.

They were not stopped. And really, Pat Mahomes, when he has been guiding this offense, they have barely been stopped the entire postseason. And we've said, hey, just wait until, if they can play their full A game, knowing the NFL can beat them, and that still applies now, Gabe, if they play to their full ability this weekend, excuse me, I guess in two weekends now, Tampa's not beating them. But here's a couple things to think about. Their offensive line, beat up right now.

Left tackle, Eric Fisher, towards Achilles, not going to play. My brother, right tackle, hasn't played in three months. They have a backup right guard, right? Larry was the doctor, stayed and opted out of the year. They kind of rotate that position. Left guard. Guy got hurt in the first month of the season. So they have four backup offensive linemen against

this Tampa Bay defensive line. It's a concern, right? Are the Chiefs going to shoot themselves in the foot? I don't know. They've done that throughout the season. And is Tampa Bay going to have this turnover luck? Like, they just keep forcing turnovers. I thought, and we'll get to them in a second, but I thought that was the best game Byron left,

which I call season. Tampa's OC. Like, they're just, there's all these things. One, two, three, four, five have to happen for Tampa to win this game. And you know me. I am obviously a Chiefs fan, but I try to present a way the Chiefs can lose.

I think it's pretty boring to do what Nick Wright does. I love Nick, but like gets on TV all the time and says the Chiefs are the best thing ever. It's like, yeah, the record shows that. I like to try to like find a way for the Chiefs to lose a game here and there because I think it's more fun to do that. I can just come on here and say the Chiefs are the best thing ever,

but I don't think that's why people listen to me. But could just come on here and say that she's the best thing ever, but I don't think that's why people listen to me. But Gabe, when they play an A-plus game, man, they're pretty freaking good. They are, and you're right that Nick, among others, will just sort of remind us how much better they are and that they should obviously win, and there's a thousand different stats to support that. I want to come back to the point about the line, though, because especially from you, given how personal this is for for you that felt like you breezed past it so the issue going into the

packers bucks game was wait what about david bakhtiari the all-world left tackle being out isn't that going to be a problem for an aaron rogers it would seem the left tackle eric fisher for the chiefs being out and your brother having been out you told me earlier this year just a few weeks ago like it the problem is when you have to start moving multiple guys around on the line it's not just about we're swapping one guy out it's about moving a few guys around how do they handle the fact that in the Super Bowl their left tackle is out yeah it's a problem and we saw actually in the Packers game that the Bucs took advantage of Bakhtiari not being out. Yeah.

Excuse me, of Bakhtiari being out. The Packers left tackles. The first time in the three games Bakhtiari has missed is the third game. But someone took advantage of that. JPP attacked inside. He was able to get inside, outside. They twist off. They did a bunch of stuff.

So, yes, it's a problem. Here's the thing. Go to my Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz. I pinned this to my profile because it's just it's so true is that can the bucks take advantage of this defensive of this offensive line yes they totally can right a the chiefs are not gonna run the football tlb is the best running events in the nfl they're down four off it's not gonna run the football can they hit pam homes yes they can they hit pam homes the problem is if problem is if the secondary can't cover anyone, then that matters because they'll just throw the ball quickly and get the ball out.

And look back to last year. Here's the path for Tampa, if you're rooting for Tampa. And it's not a simple path, but it is kind of simple. You do what the Niners did. You hit Pat Mahomes' forced turnovers. And then instead of having Jimmy G, you have Tom Brady. And Tom Brady's's gonna make some of those throws that jimmy g did not you know what it's not one of the the jimmy g miss was

like a six yard third and six pass like tom brady can throw that and i'm like we're asking him to lead your team from behind probably not tom brady's thing but tom has two weeks to repair now so that's the path if you're a tan of aucs fan. But again, man, is that Andy Reid is so good at scheming up parts of the offense that even with the bum offensive line, if they stay ahead of the change, that means if they get, you know, seven yards on first down, then they get six yards on second. And now it's first and ten again. Now they get five yards.

As long as they're out of third and eight game, then it doesn't matter, in my opinion, the offensive line is all beat up oh okay uh i i read something from somebody that you follow tweeted about how this was their best dvoa performance of the year they were just extremely efficient if they needed three you know four yards on third down they got five yes they didn't waste plays they always got just what they needed uh more to discuss there and does that tie into this sort of second tier offensive line at all well i just think that we finally got the like the game the weeks wanted which was the chiefs just stepping on someone's throat making it happen um i think the bills defense we had talked about this a little bit in preparation for the playoffs, they really have not played a good offense since like week nine.

Now they played the Colts, and the Colts should have won that game. They had 480 yards on offense and no turnovers. They played Buffalo. They played Baltimore. Baltimore had more yards than them. Obviously that turnover at the end was pretty big for Lamar. So it was a matter of time. And what fascinated me about this game from a schematic perspective is this.

I said in a preview on Thursday with Matt that I expected both teams to do the exact same thing on defense. The Bills sit back in coverage, which they did for most of the game, and kind of let the Chiefs slowly bleed you out, which happened. But the Chiefs finished in the red zone, and Buffalo kind of had some red zone luck on defense that did not work in this game. And I expected the Chiefs to blitz the heck out of Josh Allen

just like they did in the first game. And guess what game? They did. They did, and the Bills had no answer. I do not know why the Bills had no answer whatsoever. One time they had an answer, Singletary dropped the pass. That would have been a big gain early in the game, wide open on a blitz. Otherwise, they just kept blitzing

Josh Allen's passing hand. Every single time. And the Bills had no screens. No screens off that. No any hot routes or site routes behind that pressure, right? We see all the time a slot guy comes, a slot defender comes, the slot receiver just turns around, catches the ball,

right? Boom. No wide receiver, little quick bubble screens. Nothing. Nothing. No max protect plays. No bringing a back over. Like, nothing. Nothing. And so they just were out game plan, too.

And the field goals, man, don't get me started on those. Like, guys, we saw this weekend we had two aggressive coaches. They're both in the Super Bowl. And two conservative coaches that are both in the super bowl and two conservative coaches they're sitting at home right now for sean mcdermott to not go for it in those two circumstances in the first half is utterly ridiculous you're not beating the chiefs with field goals you never do you have to keep scoring scoring scoring the bills not do that no it took us by the way i I noted 11 minutes and 23

seconds of recording to get to a point where you even said the word Bills because it was almost like it was irrelevant that they were the team opposite the Chiefs. The Chiefs were just that dominant to me. After those first few hiccups you referenced in the first quarter, it was just all Chiefs all day. Bills weren't a thing. But then at the end, there was some chippiness and there was some bad blood and there was some, you know know fist thrown and the refs had to intervene i wonder jeff if you think that that sort of chippiness and emotion at the end is evidence that both teams recognize there maybe is a bit of a rivalry brewing here that they expect to do this again in the future there there is some mutual respect like yep you guys are clearly the only other team that could compete with us we're taking you seriously or am i just reading into things well so early game we saw chris jones

throw that punch he did not get caught for that but later in the game we saw them hit josh allen late and so the offense line reacted to that and that's normal i think but i think there is some there was some emotion of like we kind of got our ass beat we're kind of salty about it a little bit and protecting the quarterback, which I'm fine with. And obviously, you know, I've been kind of waiting the Chiefs offensive line. They, they like to agitate. That's part of what they do. And they just kind of kept agitating the Bills all game. And then eventually it bowled over at the end, obviously with some more sports and late comments and late hits.

So I think the Bills were just a little salty. Look, they had a great season, a great run. I want to address something that's important here. Bills fans told me, hey, this game is not as important for us as for the Chiefs because guess what? We're not supposed to be here. Well, guys, it's kind of hard to win. And look at Aaron Rodgers, right?

Been to one Super Bowl. Drew Brees, one Super Bowl. Like the idea that you can just get to Super Bowls like the Chiefs are doing now is not how it works. And the Chiefs should be in their third straight Super Bowl, right? They could have been the Patriots if Dee Ford wasn't off sides. And so what the Patriots did with Tom Brady is not normal in the NFL. We've had dynasties, right?

The Steelers in the 70s, Niners in the 80s, Cowboys in the 90s. The Cowboys don't only win three Super Bowls. We act like they won like a zillion in the 90s. They won three, I believe, right? They won three in a row, I believe, or three out of four. What the Patriots did is not normal for football. And to just expect if you're the Bills, hey, we'll be back next year. Every year is different, right?

Every single year is different. And so the mindset of, oh, we're putting house money, doesn't work that way. So I just want to make that point. When you get to this point, you got to win. Remember Jacksonville, right? Yeah. In 2017.

Oh, they'll be back. Tennessee last year. Oh, they'll be back. It's hard to consistently win the NFL, and it makes it even more impressive what the Chiefs are doing right now yeah well Stefan Diggs seemed to be letting us know he knows that

when he was the only player from the Bills out there on the field watching the Chiefs I like that I've done that before in games that just kind of it makes it really hurt which I think is important I kind of want it to fuel you for next season and so yeah i kind of like he was out there i that's what i i would

have done yeah i thought it was cool too and i think it probably will fuel him and he he has nothing to be ashamed of he played his ass off this season you know made them a much better team um last thing before we switch to the guy whose name i don't really want to bring up but this will segue to it anyway. Uh, we always talk about the offense. We spent a little time talking about the defense. I do want to mention Chiefs defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo was the Giants defensive coordinator when they bottled up Tom Brady's 2007 Patriots, the record setting offense, but better offense

even than these Chiefs. Um, is there anything to be said for what steve spagnola's defense can do to tom brady specifically so what's so interesting about the chiefs defense is they kind of break their numbers for i don't know how the better way to say it but they kind of break their mold all the time is if you look at their numbers, man. Like red zone defense. Atrocious this season. Last night, good. All of a sudden, good. Like rush defense, not good all season. Playoffs, good.

All of a sudden. Like I don't understand how. Offensively, you can kind of get the flip the switch thing, right? Like it kind of makes sense. But defense is an emotional position. And you're either on or you're off. I have not seen a defense just be able to turn it on like they did at the end of last season

and the end of this season, like they're doing. I mean, they blanketed the Bills. And they brought pressure. So when you bring pressure, right, typically that means you put everyone on an island because you have less guys in coverage than you have pressuring. So, you know, you're not in zone coverage as often.

Man-to-man coverage. That's why there's ways for the Bills to beat the pressure. They didn't do any of it. And so for Tom Brady, how is he going to beat the pressure? They're going to pressure Tom Brady. Promise you that. Because they're not a get-home-with-four type of crew. The Chiefs typically aren't.

I will tell you one thing to look at. The Bucs' offensive line, fabulous. Their right guard is a backup and he's their weak link so chris jones against him it's gonna be a huge matchup the chiefs have to exploit okay well let's let's go to that side of the matchup then and i'll just say what a lot of us are thinking and don't laugh at me but tom brady is the luckiest asshole in history, man. He really is. I get it. He's all time greatest, blah, blah, blah. He did enough to win. I know, I know, I know. Okay. He threw three picks. He could have had another. He got bailed out by just awful pack defense,

weird pack coaching calls, turnovers that put him in the red zone. And then of course that insane pass interference call in the most critical moment of the game. All of those things work in his favor. They shouldn't have won that game and they should be getting smoked by my homes in two weeks but obviously they won't because of what you just said and god hates the rest of us and he loves tom brady so what the hell was that game and why is he back again oh i don't know man i don't know it's so brutal it's just endless with this guy he's in like 50 of the super bowls he's in 18 of super bowls yeah it's it's pretty remarkable um i don't have a great answer for why he is quote-unquote lucky and i feel like you make

your own breaks right and i don't know what breaks he made yesterday because he didn't play that well in the second half of the game Aaron Rodgers outplayed him uh now he played very well you know in the first half of the game and I thought actually that Byron Lefkowitz their OC called a great game like I thought he called a great game they did a great job of getting him in the right spots some play action passes some good things early on some things late right the screen to Gronk late was big. But, yeah, he threw some bad interceptions. One of them was Fournette missed a pressure, a blitz pickup, and Brady just kind of threw the ball up on third down.

So, let's give him two interceptions, really. But he did just kind of throw it up in the air. It was third and two. It was like a punt. It felt more like a punt. Like, I'll just throw it up there and hope Mike Evans catches the ball. People do that all the time. A lot of people are just worried about that one as the high throw over the middle.

So I don't know if Tom, and I'm going to talk to Ryan Jensen, Tampa Bay Center, we've had on the show before. I'm going to talk to him about this because Tom must be able to lift his team up to play better in these situations. Because if you have a guy like Tom Brady, the whole team thinks, hey, we do our part, Tom will win this for us. He's been there before. We know that if we play and we do our part ourselves, nothing more, right?

If I'm the linebacker and I have an assignment, I just do my job. If I'm the safety, I just do my job. I'm the right tackle, I just do my job. I don't do any more, obviously not any less, but I don't do any more because Tom Brady will make it right for us in the end. And maybe that's what it is, Gabe, is that there's some level of confidence when the playoffs come, playing with a guy who's playing his 10th Super Bowl now. And even though he did not play that great in the second half of that game, the team

always believed, hey, man, just do our job. We have a chance because we have Tom Brady. And it could be that simple. Now they get Antonio Brown probably back for this game. They'll get Winfield Jr. back for this game as well. I think I played with his dad. It's kind of weird. He's in the NFL.

But nonetheless, they'll get healthier as well. And for whatever reason, they just stick around these games. Their play sequencing on offense is so garbage. They run the ball like every first down. I do not understand it. They put themselves in third and long all the time. You cannot do this against kansas city so um i look either the chiefs are going to blow them out uh i mean we'll obviously have much more to say about this game but my first thought is that

but i thought the saints were going to win too i thought the packers were going to win too and tom bray just keeps getting his team to the Super Bowl. Yeah, there must be something to what you're getting at about everyone else can just relax and do their job because they feel right or wrong that he'll he'll just do something special. I can relate to that as a producer having worked with some really great people at ESPN over the years. You know, Michelle Beadle was like, we just had to like make sure we had a few things in place and then in certain situations just turn the camera on and she was just awesome she was just great at it i couldn't quite explain it and so maybe maybe that's how it is that you all just focus on what you're there to do and let the special person be special but that doesn't really explain what the hell happened with kevin

king all day long but especially on that miller touchdown at the end of the half that's see but that's you know okay so here's an example my opinion, kind of fortune favors the bold, right? So Bruce Arians was going to punt the ball. Remember, he was going to punt the ball there. Called timeout. I'm not sure if anyone talked him into going for it. I mean, it didn't look like Tom did. Then they went for it, got a first down, called timeout,

and then had the Scottie Miller touchdown. They just ran a basic 8- or 989 like a go kind of a post and a go like from a bunch formation it was actually kind of cool it kind of split out like a bunch um and the the packers called terrible coverage one robber like what are you doing guys so look sometimes you go for it defense calls a shitty defense. Like that's just football, right? And that's why you stay aggressive. And again, Tom, it's not Tom's magical powers that force Green Bay into shitty defense, but it's just what he took advantage of it. Okay.

And then early in the second half, there's a pick that gets returned, you know, into the red zone because Devin White's an animal and can do crazy things. So then you have the ball in the red zone then we're skipping that one because every team benefits from turnovers but okay so then why isn't Rodgers running for the end zone on third and eight late in the game and why why on God's green earth are they kicking a field goal and giving Tom Brady the ball back what what the hell was that sequence about so Rodgers would have gone probably about three yards of the seven to get to the inside.

I mean, JPP was very close. I think people don't realize that. He would have caught him at some point. I don't think Rodgers scores. Okay. But obviously, if you get to the three-yard line, it makes going four and a fourth and three much different, right? Yes.

I think LaFleur would do that. So, I know the models said that kicking the field goal there was the same as going for it okay um i disagree yeah what model is that how come every smart person i know says what they should have gone whatever whatever people use to track you know game probability and whatnot. I don't know. I watch the Packers defense all day. And their defense did not scream to me, get a stop.

But people say, well, they had to get a stop anyways if they scored and got a two-point conversion. Yes, that's right. It's a lot different, though, when you're playing defense to stop someone from going 50 yards. When Tampa just needs 10 yards, the game's over. It's much different. We get that, right um and Tampa did it and I I just how Roger seems so upset I couldn't believe it but I mean I I would have want if I was in that spot as a player I wouldn't have wanted to go for especially with I think the Packers had like a historically good red zone offense this season too and to not

go for it just signaled like man, I'd rather trust my defense than trust my MVP Hall of Fame quarterback. Yeah, and a defense that has sucked. And so then the defense does something that happens all the time, but usually isn't under the spotlight. So the PI call that blew up Twitter, I mean, the most generous interpretation was

it was technically the right call to call pass interference for pulling the jersey, but it didn't seem like a call that needed to be made and wouldn't have been made for 58 previous minutes in that game where almost no flags existed. So it seemed like a late call that didn't have to be made. And of course goes Tom Brady's way. And that makes everyone pissed. What was your take on that? All right, good. I'm glad you brought this up. So I think all of us want consistency from the officials, correct?

Yeah. Whether you call a lot of flags, middle amount of flags, no flags, be consistent. All game, both sides were grabbing each other, pulling each other, especially on the Tampa Bay side, right? Tampa was all over the Packers wide receivers. If you don't want to call it, fine. That should be your policy the entire game.

When you throw a flag there, and it was P.I. Everyone agrees it was P.I. When you throw a flag there and you didn't throw it the other seven times, it's like, what are you doing, guys? Why there? And everything else. Yes, it was blamed, but there were also other blamed ones that weren't called.

So that's the problem. It's not that they shouldn't call pi ever it's that we want consistency from our officials and in that situation in that game did not feel that call was consistent with how the game flow went and it wasn't obvious pi was grabbing a shirt like it's i mean it was and maybe it was too obvious they finally had to call, and so, but that's where we tie back to my rants about Tom Brady. And I think other people feel this way. It's like, you're defining luck then. And if it's not luck, it's a conspiracy.

And I'm not willing to call it a conspiracy to help Tom Brady, but it's like, okay. So it's a judgment call that doesn't need to be made and isn't being made almost all the other time. But what do you know? It happens here and benefits him his whole run began with one of these calls remember the tuck game you know like the whole damn existence of tom brady is premised on some weird 50 50 i'm not sure we need to call it this way but somehow it helps him and that's what's so tiring so um you know luck is sometimes um it's not explainable i'll give you an example like so my brother obviously got hurt this season before this

season he had played every game of his career and before even middle last season he put every snap of his career like 8 000 snaps in a right? And I was hurt all the time. I did nothing to deserve being hurt. I worked my ass off. Had bad luck. Sucks, right? Now, in the game, how do I define luck like that, right? Is that Tampa Bay was winning at that point, right?

They kind of, they were winning the game first of all, right at that point. So even if it didn't go against them, they still have to punt the ball back and Green Bay had to drive the field with no timeouts and score a touchdown. So that you build your own luck by doing the right things throughout the game. So when a call kind of goes your way,

it's like, oh shit, we got one, right? Like you just kind of make your own luck. And I know they didn't do anything specifically to earn that, but they kind of earned it by being in this position to throw the ball there to close the game out right that kind of makes sense like they got to position to where they could take an opportunity to throw the ball there that got a pass interference if they were losing the game

maybe it's different if they're winning the game i just think that like you kind of make your own luck and i don't think they were like singing out tom pretty just they're winning the game they passed the ball it was a pi game was over like end of story all right so then let's use this as our segue to the other guy who's then he's been making some very bad luck for a very long time because aaron rogers is the only person in my lifetime who I think you could get a majority of people to say is better than Tom Brady not more accomplished but better than Tom Brady and his luck has sucked man all right he he basically said he thinks his future in Green Bay is in doubt as soon as this game was over that's more or less what he said at his press conference he's lost four straight NFC championship game appearances with the Packers.

Okay. I think he's going to just murder a few teammates and maybe coach LeFleur and then just sprint out of town and try to win a ring somewhere else. Let them begin the love era. But Jeff, like if you make your own luck, what the hell is Aaron Rodgers done wrong? The guy had 340 something yards, three touchdowns. He was the MVP all season. I thought he played a better game than Brady and just shit never goes his

way. Like what, what is Aaron Rogers supposed to do? Um, I don't know if leaving is the right answer. I don't know. I mean, unless he goes to the Niners,

like some of the great defense, but partly he's been let down by his defense throughout his career. Terrible. He's not been able to overcome that. And even yesterday, Rodgers played really well. The interception he threw, just kind of a – I know people said it was holding. It was kind of a bad throw. It was kind of behind him a little bit.

Fine. But otherwise, he played fine. Fine? I agree with you. He played great. Yeah, he was great. Yeah. I mean, it's not his fault they lost.

He didn't call that fourth down field goal um you know but i will say though in the first drive of the game they had three opportunities to score they ran the three plays they wanted batthode adams on the rollout second play ball hit white in the chest the and the third play lazardo was breaking open wide open for a touchdown, and Rodgers threw the ball back. It's like, still has opportunities. I know it's tough when you throw for 340 yards to point out two plays, Gabe, where it's like, hey, you had done better here.

But that's the way that players and coaches will look at it. I do agree with you, though. Played great. For whatever reason, man, Colin has said this before, Colin Coward, and I've never looked it up, so I'm going to take his word for it, that Aaron Rodgers, when he's behind in a game at all, is like a career record of about 500. It's not good. I need to flesh that out a little bit more, but like, that's not good, right?

Do we agree on that? Like, he doesn't play well from behind. Yeah. Okay. Is that his fault? I don't know. People have been saying this about, you know,

Tiger Woods too, that he's a front runner and he's not good at comebacks. Well, he was, he was always so far ahead though. The difference obviously here is that Aaron is not always so far ahead. All right. But so like,

it just seems to me that Aaronaron rogers has been in the position you know he's been minutes away from a super bowl multiple times and come up short and yes colin was alluding today to the idea that well maybe he deserves some of the blame he gets all the credit for all the wins and all the success the mvPs the one ring all the great wins no one ever says it's his fault when they lose but like I don't see how you could claim it was his fault it's obviously his defense blew it his coach frankly kind of blew it with the the field goal try and you know the ref blew it to give Tom Brady a first down. So like what I, I feel like if Aaron Rogers went to any other team with an average defense, they're better than the Packers. Obviously Devante Adams is good,

but I don't have any reason to believe that he couldn't make the number one on every team in the league. Look like Devante Adams. Like if he went to the Niners or something. Yeah, I agree. I, I, I, I would love to see him go somewhere else and test the waters on a different team. I don't know if the Packers will trade them, but I would love to see it. Well, wouldn't you? What?

Yes, of course. And what if, and we'll get to this in a minute, but what if he does what we think Deshaun Watson is doing? What if he finds a respectful, classy off the record kind of way to basically leak? He needs,

he's demanding a trade. Couldn't Aaron Rogers force his way out of town? Yes, but i don't is that what aaron rogers wants to do i don't i yes he can make it very public and very loud and very messy never struck me as something that he'd want to do i guess i mean he's made comments in the past about things that have happened but i mean it a pretty, like, your legacy kind of gets tarnished a little bit when you approach it that way. I don't think he cares very much. You know what I mean?

Like, Deshaun Watson's so young that everyone's like, hey, oh, you're 25? Yeah, get the hell out of Houston. They're a shit show. The Packers are not a shit show organization. They're a great organization. So, asking out, there's a different type of legacy question and how people view him in Green Bay and the rest of the NFL for asking out now versus what Deshaun Watson did

because Deshaun Watson is so young and it's a terrible organization. Yeah. Are we sure we want to call the Packers a great organization? I mean, remember, Aaron Rodgers' career started because he was the guy coming in to replace a legend, and it started as a total mess. Three years of chaos before Aaron Rodgers got a chance to try to be in charge of this team. Then a bunch of years of regular season wins, missed opportunities in the postseason.

They never draft him a weapon. They never give him much of a defense. There's one season with Clay Matthews and a couple other guys. They basically always stink on D and count on it snowing in january are we sure they're a good organization yes because they've won like 30 years straight okay but we just saw in the graphics in the game yesterday like tom brady's won more than their the whole history of the packers all these hall of fame name every trophy after them. Tom Brady's won more than every team ever.

Like, it's a bad... Everyone who played for them has liked them. Everyone who's played for them has respected Green Bay. I know people around the league respect Green Bay. I think they're a well-run organization, yes. All right. It's hard to win for that many years in a row and just dominate a division for years many years in a row and just dominate

division for years and years and years all right well i think it's not hard if aaron rogers is your quarterback every single year so if aaron rogers goes where he wanted to go all along where he should have been drew breeze had three straight 79 seasons like it's not guaranteed you're gonna win 10 games i got it and i think aaron rogers has been the best quarterback of my life and i think he now will go where he wanted to go in the first place where only bad luck kept him from being there you know back in 2004 or whatever it was he's gonna end up in in the bay he's gonna play for the niners is he gonna get i hope he does. I'd love.

All right. If he would do that. All right. Let's move the line. Let's talk about a few other teams and a few other situations. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back. We'll make some bets.

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Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. All right, if that ad didn't blow your eardrums out, maybe Jeff will as he answers some of these questions. Moving the line, our little over-under game. None of these are real. There's plenty of real bets to make later this week, Jeff.

I want to know, Bills wins versus Chiefs wins regular season next year. What's the bigger number? Regular season. Yeah, versus Chiefs wins regular season next year. What's the bigger number? Regular season. Yeah, the Chiefs. I don't see why the Chiefs are going to lose more than three games every season. Okay. Can I ask you about a couple names we failed to mention earlier, or at least in detail?

Is Travis Kelsey going to set every single record ever held by a tight end and then some? If he stays healthy, he's on that path. He's incredible, man. I've told everyone this for years now, that Travis Kelsey is the most important player in the offense outside of Pat Mahomes. People keep saying, Tyreek Hill. No, no, it's Travis Kelsey, man.

He is unguardable. He makes this offense go. Obviously, it helps to have Tyreek Hill and Hardeman and Sammy Watkins will probably play this weekend, or let's hope in two weeks. Travis Kelsey is incredible. He's incredible. I mean, mean he against the Browns guys he broke down the number one corner on their team for a touchdown like he is fantastic what's incredible about the Chiefs too is that's a play calling man like guys just wide open all the time it's incredible it's it's

crazy Twitter it's fun that I saw somebody post this. Maybe you saw it. Where they screen grabbed like a ball at snap when there were three guys in motion crisscrossing. And it just said, imagine trying to figure out who's getting the ball. And like that's – I watch every play now with that in mind. Like I have no idea where the ball is going, but I know a couple guys are going to be open. Agreed. There was a picture too on one of Travis Kelsey's catches

where Mahomes is releasing the ball, and Kelsey's behind the defender still. Like, defender, let's say Mahomes is on Mahomes. There's a defender here. Yeah. And then there's, like, Kelsey's still running, like, to the place where it's incredible. Their connection is incredible.

He has total trust that Travis will take that one step in the right direction or position his body just right. They have a great connection. He releases the ball before he's in the right place, and he always ends up in the right place. One other thing I want to ask you about, because I know that guys like you get off on this. I noticed at least one of the biggest plays of the game,

and probably a couple of them, where Hill and Hardman get loose. Travis is like pancaking dudes 30 yards downfield and I most of the time observationally the really great offensive sort of tight ends in history the guys who put up these huge stats who he might be compared to are fine they're usually not great at blocking and they certainly aren't like spending their time 30 yards downfield smushing guys that's not my impression at least is he unique in that way as well yes he is he's very good on the run as a blocker but Gronkowski who probably the best time ever he could block probably the best tight end ever so you'd say Gronk versus Travis Kelsey is going

to be the the other mano-a-mano match Gronk has done a little bit longer than he has and they're just a little different I think Travis Kelsey is close to being better than Gronk I mean they're different like Gronk was never a one-on-one against your corner isolated route guy right that's not who he was he was more of the traditional tight end um but i i think that travis is very close to being better than grock was probably a better overall player as far as a blocker as a tight end but the chiefs don't ask travis kelsey to block very often anymore they have other guys to block he basically is a glorified wide receiver and it works really well for their offense yeah he's unbelievable at when the play breaks down,

sliding into open space. Amazing. Okay. Let's talk about one of the other headlines that's been floating around over the weekend and got lost in some of the game action, which is Matt Stafford is parting ways with the Lions. That's, I think, their phrasing.

So I want to know, odds Matt Stafford ever wins a ring over under 10% chance. Under. Because you don't think he'll end up on a winner. It's just hard to do. He might, but he just has been kind of beat up lately. I mean,

he's got to obviously stay upright and stay healthy. I just would bet against it. It's just really hard to do, man. It's hard to do does matt stafford seem to you like the kind of guy who if he ended up on a good team we could see that oh my god he was he was always great he just never had a great team around him oh yeah yes we could that's a conversation that's probably gonna happen okay so is. So is there any team, I know we'll do this all offseason,

but is there any team where he makes some sense to you, other than just the Niners who we talked about with Aaron Rodgers, where he could steal a ring in the last few years of his career? Indeed, for sure. Okay. That already looks like a team that's good enough defensively. It has some offensive weapons. Throw him in there.

They're certainly a competitor. See, I think you've got to be in the NFC, truthfully. That's my fear for any young player. Stay away from Mahomes as much as you can. Yeah, and now the Bills look like there's the Bills, the Ravens, maybe the Steelers for another year. I doubt it.

There's another couple teams that can just trip you up. You could be a great team. You could be a one seed and get knocked off by a pretty good team. All right, let's talk about another guy can just trip you up. You could be a great team. You could be a one seed and get knocked off by a pretty good team. All right, let's talk about another guy who hasn't yet moved. And I know this one, there's a couple threads you want to pull on with this one. But I want to know, Eric Biennemi wins as the head coach in Houston next year. I'm taking a leap. Over, under, eight and a half.

I would say under because I don't know if Watson will be there. If Watson's there, I could see an over over um look we talked about this last week i don't know why eric bnme is don't have a job yet right he's interviewed now with i believe near 15 teams over the last three years it could be less i don't think it's any more than that that's the number i heard i didn't explore this even if it's 10 teams, okay, he's interviewed with them now for three years now. So something else is happening here besides what

we've talked about, right? It just... I cannot think that the only reason he doesn't have a job is race. It's possible. I don't want to be completely naive to that possibility. But after interviewing him for 15 jobs, I got to think there's a little something more to that, right?

Am I off there, Gabe? I don't think I'm off. Am I? No, I think you're perfectly right to ask the question, what else could it be? I think we have to accept that it's part of the equation with some of those teams. It has to be part because the numbers bear it out, right?

There's no way you can have 70% black players and two coaches that are black. It doesn't make sense, right? There needs to be more. There needs to be... And there's qualified candidates. Jim Caldwell, Leslie Frazier, Todd Bowles, Byron Lefkowitz will be one.

There's plenty of qualified candidates. When you have Joe Schmogen hired by the Eagles and he didn't even know he was going to be interviewed, he was on vacation, like get out of here. So I don't know what it is about Biennium, but I will say that the arguments that people make for him on social media are just kind of the wrong arguments to make. Like there's this, we, people say, well, he doesn't call plays. That's a disingenuous argument anyways because we know the coaches get hired without calling plays so defending that part of it doesn't make sense to me because that's just someone who's ignorant right that's someone who's

who just doesn't know what they're talking about and and and saying things that are not true about how the chiefs operate does not does either, right? So every offense is collaborative, right? So every offense, the OC is not in charge of everything the offense does. He doesn't sit in his office all day and drop all the runs, all the passes, all the third down, all the red zone, all the, there's not enough time in the day to do that. They delegate. The offensive line has, you know, the offensive line coach has the run game. The quarterback coach, you have first down passes.

The running back coach, you have third down passes. You know, the tight end coach, you have red zone goal line, whatever else. And now, within that process, yes, Andy Reid, for example, would have a say in kind of whatever part he wants to have a say in. So as, for example, let's say Eric Bien-Ami does the red zone, which is what was tweeted out yesterday. So Eric Bien-Ami does the red zone in accordance with Andy Reid. Andy Reid comes over there probably and says,

hey man, let's run these plays. You know, AB's like, I like these plays. And then in the meeting rooms, because the coaches don't want to talk for the entire freaking meeting, every single meeting, he has his other guys on the team, wide receiver coach, running back coach, O-line coach, all that stuff,

install the part they work on. So Eric Bien-Ami might install the red zone. Mike Kafka, their quarterback coach, by install, I mean in front of the team on red zone simply Thursday or Friday. Go up in front of the room and install all the plays. That does not mean that he came up with every single play. Just like it doesn't mean that Andy Reid installs a part of the offense. He came up with every single play either, right?

Simply collaborative effort in how the game plan is put together. every single play either, right? It's going to be collaborative effort in how the game plan is put together. So again, being a person who calls plays does not really qualify you or disqualify you to be a coach in the NFL. We know that. But let's kind of be honest about what happens

in the team meeting room and how the offense is put together. Andrew Reid calls the plays, and that's fine. It doesn't, again, he doesn't, he's even said, he goes, it's a collaboration, right? He might radio to EB, hey, Eric, what do you like right here? And Eric might say, hey, coach, I like this play. And it's like, great, call that play. Or he might, hey, offensive line coach, third and one,

what run do you want here? And Andy Heckels is like, run power. And coach is like, cool, run power. Like, it's a collaborative process. So we're, like, trying so hard because I agree. It is very odd. He doesn't have a job. So we're trying to find the reasons why he doesn't have a job by throwing out things that just kind of aren't really true.

And it's frustrating. I totally get it. Because again, I think Eric should have a job. I mean, he should be for the Texas. It'd be great if he went to Houston. He would set that program up. They have a doll in the room. Someone knows how to win and all that. But I don't know why he doesn't have a job man i guess i

had no idea if i knew i would tell everyone well yeah i mean there are other people who have come up with a thousand excuses like you said and so we can read their tweets i uh from the perspective of a fan who kind of barely knows how any of this works and needed you to explain how install works on a Thursday, let's say. From the perspective of that guy, it seems like him plus Deshaun Watson and a fresh start is material for success very soon. It wasn't all that long ago.

The Texans looked like a team on the rise. So I like that for him, and I would say over eight and a half wins if that combo was together and happy. But I don't know. Deshaun just seems totally like he wants to bounce no matter who's the coach. I'm hoping he'll

bounce to the Jets. Not that he'll be any happier there, but that's another show. Alright, let's do a couple silly ones and we'll get out of here. I want to know, chances Julian Edelman packs himself in gronk's suitcase and hides out in one either him or tom brady's room all week long in tampa uh 99 chance julian edelman's down there over he's behind he's down there no one like there's no radio row this year there's no like any festivities i don't think the chiefs are flying in saturday and saturday like usual for a regular sunday game there's nothing there but edelman will be there edelman will be there

once once and in the background yeah i can't he must feel really crappy about not being brought over they have like every kind of player on that team they've got they've got a scotty miller who's a julian edelman ripoff they brought in an Antonio Brown, who could have been, Julian could have been that guy. I mean, it's crazy. He must be so locked up. He posted a video last night on Instagram of Tom Brady. The what? He posted a picture, like a video congratulating Tom Brady.

Yeah. Oh, huge, huge FOMO for Julian Edelman. Oh, for sure. He'll find a way down to Tampa. All right. Oh, for sure. He'll find a way down to Tampa. All right. We heard earlier that Budweiser, oddly enough, would not have ads in the Super Bowl this year. That's, of course, a staple. So thinking of ads and thinking about what I think we're sure to see, I want to know chances of a new Baker Mayfield progressive ad where he's like shoveling out the stadium parking lot because, you know, he lives there and that's his driveway. But he's making fun of himself for losing to the Chiefs. So they whip this up real quick and push it out there.

Super Bowl Sunday. What do you think? It's interesting. 50% chance over under. There will be a Baker Mayfield commercial. OK. It's just a matter of how many of who's in it and what. My wife saw one the other day. She's like, is that his wife?

I go, probably. I mean. I think so. I doubt they cast. I know. I was like, I don't think they cast someone else. She was so intrigued. She's like, oh.

I'm like, yeah. Do you want to be in a commercial? She's like, no. I'm like, okay, cool. So I would say over. He'll definitely be in a commercial. I stop watching the Super Bowl

commercials don't they don't do it for me anymore I'm too busy like during the breaks like tweeting or tweeting at Aaron shots about DVOA when you could be watching

hilarious ads yes do you even know who's playing the halftime show I like that long pause I could have done this as an over under chances jeff knows who's playing halftime let me think i'll give you a hint you could not escape the one ad that was constant

all weekend on both networks you couldn't help but notice it featured the halftime performance. Oh, I'm watching commercials. Oh, geez. Who is it? Everyone was singing along. I don't know the name of the song. No, it's not J-Lo. That was last year. The Weeknd.

The Weeknd. Okay. Yeah. What's that? Blinding Lights? That's his jam? Flashing Lights? I don't know. I don't know the name of the song,

but everyone is singing it while That's his jam. Flashing Lights. I don't know. I don't know the name of the song, but everyone is singing it while he's driving away. I think it's like Blinding Lights. Okay, not bad. I like The Weeknd. J-Lo and Shakira were good last year at the Miami. I prefer that.

I will say this about The Weeknd. I don't think I've told you this. I went to a show in Vegas a few years ago. It was like a iHeartRadio festival with multiple performers. And the headliner was Coldplay, which is why I was there. Coldplay, Pink, Harry Styles, and The Weeknd all performed. I went into this knowing basically nothing about anyone but Coldplay. And I left and I would rank in order of like, how good was it?

Weekend, the worst. Coldplay, underperformed from my perspective. Harry Styles, surprisingly good. Pink, un-fucking-believable. Wow. Pink, killed, man man see pink in concert i've seen i i've not been a big concert guy i've seen usher and madison square garden that was a lot of fun um and then last of the super bowl we saw chain smokers and lizzo and uh a little bit of of rick ross

flow right on the pitbull was after the Chiefs that was dude that was fun I remember watching videos Pitbull for an hour and a half played the Chiefs Super Bowl party

that was a ton of fun did he just play the same song on loop for an hour and a half no he didn't it was a lot dude we had a lot of fun the latest I've met I was up until 4am

and I'm sober I don't drink like 4am sober just dancing a Super Bowl away. Well, I hope you get a chance to do that again this year, Jeff. We'll be talking about the game again next week. You and Matt are going to do some picks this week and next.

There's a lot of fun football to talk about. So thanks for getting me smarter on this weekend. We'll look forward more next week. Yeah, man. I can't believe we finally got here. Super Bowl. It's done. Not done. It's here. And we'll get to it next week all right guys have a great couple of days talk to you