Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Dalvin Cook's Market, Jameis Winston's Comeback & Six Feet of Space

Episode Date: June 12, 2020

In a special Thursday episode, Geoff explains why Dalvin Cook's holdout indicates his position's market, why Jameis Winston is due for a comeback season and the odd perils of the NFL's new social distancing guidelines. Dalvin Cook: (0:38) Jameis Winston & RG3: (10:38) Social-distancing: (16:46) NBA vs. NFL replacement platers: (21:17) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome in to Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you with me Jeff Schwartz it is Friday June 12th hope you guys have had a good week we'll get you heading into the weekend with some football topics Dalvin Cook wants a ton of money guess what he's not going to get it RG3 and Jameis Winston want to start again can they do it, I looked over the NFL guidelines, return to play. I know I said on Tuesday, I like them, but now I'm not sure they're actually going to be able to happen. And the NBA puts forward an interesting proposal about how they're going to deal with players not wanting to go to the bubble in Orlando. Let's start with Dalvin Cook, the Vikings running back. And the Vikings running back is looking to get a new contract he wants

reportedly over 16 million dollars a year which is the number that Christian McCaffrey is at right now I was insulted the Vikings offered him just 10 million dollars Cook had 38.1 percent of his team's touches from scrimmage in 2019 and that includes weeks when he was out he was injured this year and in those weeks when he was out. He was injured this year, and in those weeks when he was hurt, whether playing or not playing, the Vikings' offense did struggle, and that is undeniable. It's undeniable that they did struggle when Cook was not in the lineup. But 38% of one's offense is a lot for one single running back.

To add to that as well, the Vikings had the second highest designed run percentage of 47% last season, and they generate the most yards off running back screen. So the running back in this outside zone offense that they have in Minnesota, it's very important that running back is part of that offense. However, because of the style of their offense,

the Vikings can generate yards with almost anybody. We saw in San Francisco, an outside zone scheme where you rotate in running backs and they all are just good. We've seen it throughout the time of this wide zone, this outside zone, that you can put in any running back and just be fun. So even though Dalvin Cook accounts for 38.1%

of the team's touches, which is ninth, by the way, in the NFL last season. And even though they run the ball a lot, even though they get a lot of yards off screens, paying someone for that production at $16 million plus a season is not a way to build a roster. I continue to harp on this. And I feel bad doing it because, guys, I'm an

offensive lineman. I love running backs. I played with D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. Double trouble. The only pair of running backs so far in NFL history to each have 1,100 yards in a single season. Then I went to Minnesota. I played with Adrian Peterson and the year had 2,000 yards. Then I went to Kansas City and played with Jamal Charles, who is quite possibly one of the most underrated players of this generation. He is still number one in NFL history in yards per carry, minimum like a thousand touches, whatever the minimum is for the leaderboard. He was on the way to a Hall of Fame career. And that's a different debate on Hall of Fame career discussion for running backs. So I very much understand the importance of running backs in offense

and how they were valuable to my success. But the numbers continue to show that rushing the ball and focusing so much on your run game does not, in the end, does not produce a high enough expected points average, EPA. And part of that is due to the fact that a good run is four yards, five runs, maybe five yards, right? Positive run. Well, positive pass is like seven yards, right?

So obviously if you do that enough throughout the game, you see the difference. And there are reasons to run the football. I'm not saying you should never run the football, but paying your running back all that money does not make sense. Drafting a running back in the first round does not make sense to our team building. And history has shown that when you pay running backs, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, even Zeke Elliott had a good season last year. But did they make the playoffs?

No, they didn't. Christian McCaffrey, all that money. Panthers are all going to make or break next season off Teddy Bridgewater and how he plays. And same with the Vikings. Let's say Cook does not play next year. They will not win or lose a game because Cook is there or not there. They will win or lose a game because Cousins plays well or doesn't play well. So they have got to find ways to generate offense

with not running the ball as much. That is the number one concern, in my opinion, if you're a Vikings fan. Now, getting specifically to Dalvin Cook, it's not Cook's fault that he plays that position, and he's good at his position. Last season, he had five games over 100 yards, 154, 142. He had one of those in a loss as well. Average four and a half yards of carry,

receiving the ball almost 10 yards of reception. He's a great football player. But when we look at the way a team is built and the way offense functions in 2020, teams that win in the NFL pass the ball at a high, high level. And they pass the ball to run the football. Running the football, it can be valuable. I can't deny the Niners didn't do a good job last year running the football.

But we're seeing that in the end, obviously, the Chiefs with their passing game was able to win the Super Bowl. And time and time again, the passing offense, as we move into a passing era, continues to lead the way. I mean, the Niners last year had the eighth-ranked passing DVOA. They were 12th in rushing. So even then, the passing game led the way for the Niners. And the Vikings will be good or not again on their passing game. So for Dalvin Cook specifically, the question becomes,

how do these running backs get some sort of value out of their careers right where teams and teams are paying guys money right Zeke Elliott like I mentioned Christian McCabe some guys are getting paid but there's this idea they're not valued as much I and I'm I'll admit it I push that all the time I feel bad doing it but I do push that running backs are not very valuable you could could put in anyone, in my opinion, drafted after the first round and get 1,000 yards in this offense next season and get 500 yards receiving in this offense next season

and not have to pay Dalvin Cook all that money. Now, $10 million a year, okay, fine. You want to pay him that, Vikings? I'm on board. $16 million, not a chance. So what do we do for running backs? Because people will say, well, the PA, the Players Association, needs to find a way to make sure the running backs get taken care of.

Do they have an incentive system put in place where if they reach a certain number of rushing attempts or carries, same thing, rushing attempts or receiving attempts, catches or yards that they get a bonus, but who pays the bonus? The team would draft. So of course the team's not going to pay a bonus. Not going to draft running back,

undrafted guy. Finally, he doesn't have to pay that bonus. Are they allowed to restructure earlier after one year? Maybe right now it's three years. What is the way we can get running backs the value that they think they deserve i don't have a great answer for that i i'm not quite sure um i think we're going to see less and less players decide to play running back

who have talent and could play wide receiver or could play different position um that might be the the first kind of corrective step is that you just don't get running backs who are elite athletes anymore. And they're always going to be elite athletes per se, but just the guys that are elite elite, go play cornerback or go play wide receiver, go play quarterback. They're not playing running back anymore.

Go play outside linebacker or something like that. There is no great solution because I would say as another player, I'd be kind of pissed if the PA went out of their way for some provision for running backs when I could argue that, you know, the middle class of the NFL is not getting what they deserve. The PA is supposed to look out for all, not just individual players or positions. And when they have gone to court, by the way, it has been for all, right?

It's been procedural reasons why they went to defend Tom Brady, procedural reasons why they went to defend Zeke Elliott, because that resonates throughout the league. If Goodell is able to do whatever he wants, which he is, which he gave him power to do, and they can check some of that power via the courts, then that's why they're doing it. They're not really doing it to defend Tom Brady or defend Zeke Elliott.

They're kind of defending the system and trying to find a way to make it better for all players. So should the PA be involved in making sure running backs have some sort of special salary structure, negotiate early bonus tiers, whatever it is to get them more money. Because in the end, guys, I mean, look, they're getting paid though. As much as we say the value is not there in doing it,

we continue to see these guys get paid. Now, they're not often getting paid going to a different team. You get paid by a team they're on. They're not going out. I mean, the last guy that I can recall, what, going right, going out somewhere else was DeMarco Murray, I think was the last guy that went to a team that didn't draft him and got paid a ton of money by the Eagles

and eventually was back in Dallas. You know, those guys stay on their teams. They're not, they're not, I guess Le'Veon Bell would be considered that, right? Le'Veon Bell would be a guy, I guess, that left and got money, not as much as he thought he should have gotten. But DeMarco Murray got a lot of money with the Eagles. It was a big deal. It was surprising.

I mean, they wanted, you know, they wanted to run that, that Chip Kelly offense. That was when Chip got there. And he just, DeMarco Murray did not fit. Yeah, it was $40 million deal. Five years, $40 million. It did not fit what Eagles wanted to do at all. He's not a zone offense, a shotgun, zonering guy. That was a silly signing.

So again, Dalvin Cook, sorry, man. You're not getting $16 million a year. I feel bad because again when i say like the value is not in it for the team it definitely is not but i wish the player gets paid we often confuse that when people like myself or other and typically more the analytics side say hey we shouldn't pay a running back we're not rooting against the idea of a guy making money all right like i hope that every player in the nfl gets paid as much as they should get deserve to get take like take all of it as much money as you

can get but the idea of value though for a team this doesn't make sense to pay them so you can kind of think that kind of both those things are like, I hope they get paid, but I get it why teams won't do it. And I wouldn't do it if I was running a team. All right, let's move on to Robert Griffin III, backup quarterback for the Ravens, said, I do want to be a starter again, Griffin said via NBC Sports Washington. 30 years old. Quarterbacks are playing into their 40s now.

There's still a lot of time left to go achieve all the dream and goal to set for myself. Along the same lines, Jameis Winston. Good article. Ty Dunn, A Bleacher Report. Good article on everything he writes, by the way. I mean, it's a plug. It's not shameless, but I don't get paid for it. Ty, great stuff.

Jameis, you've seen his videos on social media. We've mocked his videos on social media quite often. But he's lost 15, 17, 18 pounds. He went vegan, got LASIK surgery. The LASIK surgery thing is really surprising to me because I guess he couldn't see things in depth, like very clear. It was more boring.

How did he play quarterback for so many years and not see anything? I don't understand why he didn't do this earlier maybe he was being uh stubborn i i think that was some of the first thing i said hey man i really can't see out there let me go get my eyes looked upon it seems like something he would totally want to do and um he just never got it done so he kind of dedicated himself back to just training better. Last year, guys, he threw for 5,100 yards. 5,109. 5,109 yards to be exact. The eighth most yards in a single season ever.

Now, on the flip side, he's the first quarterback ever to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. To be fair, that was 12 more interceptions than any year this first previous four years that Winston had thrown. He's not been a high interception. He's been a high fumble guy. That's been a problem. He fumbles the ball way too much.

But 15 is a rookie, 18, 11, 14, 30. So the 14, excuse me, the 30 feels like an anomaly. It feels like somewhere he can get back to. The question becomes, before this pod really, is can RG3 and Jameis Winston return back to their starting forms? So let's look at previous examples of this. We see two in the last couple of years, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater. So Ryan Tannehill was with the Dolphins, got hurt, and Teddy Bridgewater. So Ryan Tannehill was with the Dolphins, got hurt,

went to Tennessee as a backup, where Winston's now in a backup role in New Orleans. RG3 is a backup role in Baltimore. And played lights out eight, last eight games of the year. Three-year deal, now back in Tennessee. Really, it's a three-year deal for like 90 months. A ton of money. Ton of money.

Tennessee can get out after one year, but have to pay two years or get out after really two years and pay three. At least a three-year deal. Or Teddy Bridgewater, who played five games for the Saints last year after a horrific knee injury in Minnesota. He was the bona fide starter there. Loved him in Minnesota. And signed a big deal with the Panthers this offseason. Those are two examples of guys that started, that injuries hit them, and ended up going somewhere else and becoming starters again.

Go back to Kurt Warner, who, fastest show on turf, down years, Arizona, took him to the Super Bowl. So there's examples of guys losing jobs and then becoming starters again. But Jameis Winston and RG3 are two separate categories, in my opinion. Jameis Winston and RG3 are two separate categories in my opinion Jameis Winston has been a decent quarterback for his entire career now last year we have to we have to peace out here last year I'm telling you the 30 interceptions is a lot and it's it's worth discussing obviously but that's not what he's going to do moving forward okay the LASIK surgery is actually really going to help because a lot of his problems were linebackers just dropped into cover three.

He just didn't see guys. He didn't see anybody. He didn't see it. Just didn't see it. And that was a lot of his interception were on one single coverage. Cover three and a linebacker, he just didn't see the linebacker.

On the inside route, number two, number three, in the middle field, he just never saw it. But Jameis Winston has thrown for 4,000 yards twice, 3,500 yards in a 13-game season in 2017. So definitely could have gotten a couple more,

you know, 4,000 yards there. And the good parts of last year were really good. He was really good at times last season. He really was. Obviously, interceptions again. And the fumbling. The fumbling's a huge problem. He fumbles the ball way too much.

The ball's on the ground way too often. But Jameis Winston is a competent and easily could be a starting quarterback in the NFL. No doubt. RG3, though, is a different boat, in my opinion. He played really well his rookie season in 2012. He completed 65% of his passes, threw for 3,200 yards,

20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and he ran the ball really well that year. I'm going to find his running distance here. He had 815 yards that year. I was playing the Redskins on the Vikings when he had that 76-yard touchdown, 78-yard touchdown,

to win the game against us. The FedEx field was crazy loud. It was wild. I remember it very vividly. And then he got hurt in the following season, 2013. He was 3-10.

Quarterback wins, blah. But his completion percentage dropped to 60%. 16 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. Quarterback rating, QBR, not very good.

Following season, went 2-5 on Washington. They let him go. Four touchdowns, 16 interceptions, not very good following season went two and five on Washington they let him go four touchdowns six interceptions not very good um and then the following went to Cleveland it was one and four been Baltimore last two years so as you can see here there's not been a sustained pattern of success so RG3 is in a different spot he's older than a lot of these guys and he's never been really elite outside of one season i mean ryan tannehill for all you want to say about him he's thrown for 4 000 yards nearly three times two times in a game 100 yards short he completes you know anywhere between 60

67 percent of passes 61 his career is 63 so got some work there. Last year was obviously his best year. But he's been better in his career than RG3 has. So while RG3 wants to be a starter again, I would trust Jameis Winston becomes another starter again, like Teddy Bridgewater became in New Orleans, from New Orleans, I should say, that RG3 ever becomes a starter again at any point in his career.

All right, moving along to NFL training camp. We talked briefly about this Monday. NFL laid out some guidelines for physical distancing for training camp and for the season. And the more I read through them, the less I thought that there was a possibility it could happen. So let's go over some of the stuff I talked about on Tuesday, but just a little more detail.

So they're reporting in this that the physical distancing guidelines would require six feet between lockers in the locker room. It would require meeting rooms to be six, to players to be six feet apart. It would require teammates to have 20 or less players require you know 15 guys at most in the weight room just a lot of physical separation let's just talk specifically about the facility size and what's happening in the facility so in nfl locker room there's 53 guys on the roster there's 10 on the practice squad now so you've 63 guys

then you have maybe 10 extra lockers for guys that go on IR. And most teams have to put in, like, by the end of the season, they have to put in temporary lockers in the locker room to get through the season because your roster builds throughout the season. The facilities aren't very big because there's not a lot of players. Now, college has 100 players, 110, you include the walkouts, 115. They have giant, giant facilities.

You know, the NFL facility has five weightlifting platforms. That's where you do like your cleans and your squats and whatnot, you know, platform rack. College is like 12. It's like double the size. Double the size of a cafeteria. Double the size of everything else. There's just not a lot of room in these facilities.

And I'm looking at the Panthers where I played. The Vikings have a new facility. I wasn't there. The Chiefs have the same facility and the Gi Vikings have a new facility. I wasn't there. The Chiefs have the same facility and the Giants have a new facility. The Lions as well. I don't know how they physically have room to do the separation

unless they basically just have lockers randomly situated throughout the locker room, six feet apart from each other, and players just walk in between the lockers to get to wherever they have to go. It does not feel like this can happen. Now, maybe they can move the lockers to another part of the facility, but again, every part is accounted for. You know, maybe they move them into the indoor facility, but then what do you do? What do you practice if the weather's bad? Maybe you got to

practice outside now. The meeting room. So the meeting rooms are just built to house 15 offensive linemen, three quarterbacks and a coach, four chairs. There's no room to social distance. The rooms aren't big enough for that. There's not room in the offensive line room to have for training camp. And we're talking about training camp numbers, by the way, a lot of training camp numbers, right? 90 guys in the training camp locker room. 90 guys in the team meeting room, right? 17 offensive linemen in the offensive line room. There's no room to social distance for 17 offensive linemen in the offensive line room.

The team meeting rooms are just built with enough chairs for 90 guys. So you have to fit half of that. Obviously, they said now you're going to do it to virtual team meetings anyway. So maybe the coach is up there installing a game plan. You're in your room with your Zoom on, watching the coordinator install the plays. I just don't know where everyone goes.

Amy Trask, who's fantastic, by the way, a longtime Raiders exec, was talking about logistical issues with some of this stuff of training camp. And it's just, it's a body's issue too. It's just, so training camp, I've been away from training camp. And it's just, it's a body's issue too. It's just, so training camp, I've been away for training camp, but I've been Carolina, Minnesota, I can't say all went away.

There's so many personnel around. I know the NFL is going to tier one, tier two, tier three. But even then, like you bring in intern trainers, you bring in intern equipment guys, you bring in intern coaches, you bring in intern equipment guys you bring in intern coaches you bring in intern pr guys you you you're so many people to make training camp work that facilities even with a two-month ramp-up period now you know so it's it's june 12th to august 12th you know there'll be teams in practice by august 1st but i've thought about this Can they put everyone in the cafeteria?

Where are they going to put the staff? Are they going to let the staff shower? Because, you know, we have lockers and showers, obviously. The staff have a locker room and shower room. There's not room in there to physical distance. What about the showers even? I just don't. So maybe the cafeteria.

Put everyone in the cafeteria. And, you know, you meet in the cafeteria. Put everyone in the cafeteria. And you meet in the cafeteria. You meet in the indoor facility. You pack everything up. And you hope that indoor is clear for practice time. I'm at a loss for words on where this stuff is going to go. All right. One more fun topic. This is kind of interesting about the NBA.

So the NBA is now back July 30th. Adrian Roganowski put out a tweet like, they're coming back sooner than we thought. And it was NBA is now back July 30th. Adrian Roganowski put out a tweet like, they're coming back sooner than we thought. And it was one day sooner, July 30th. There's been a lot of talk

about players not wanting to come back because of coronavirus and they're worried about it. Which Matt Barnes, who's a former NBA player, had talked about a couple days ago.

So, Woj tweeted out, players deciding against participating in Orlando could be replaced by a substitution player. NBA plans to allow replacement for players who test positive for COVID-19 and suffer injuries.

Replaced players become ineligible for the rest of the season. So the question becomes a couple of things. And for the NFL, this is interesting. So are replacement players just street free agents, which doesn't even sound like a replacement player. Like let's just use LeBron, for example, this terrible example. LeBron doesn't want to play. Why don't you just sign a free agent?

Or are the teams that aren't going to the bubble in Orlando, are those players available to sign? That's like Damian Lillard, Steph Curry. I could go through the list. There's a ton of Blake Griffin, I believe, is on a team that's not going there. That would be interesting. But my thought was about football.

What happens if football players don't want to play this season? And I hadn't really thought about that. I don't think football players are in the same economic bracket as basketball players. You know, basketball already got paid for most of the season. The players don't want to play the rest of the year. It's not that much time. If they are on a team that's potentially out of the playoffs fast, or they make the playoffs, you might play eight, 10 games and be done.

So you're not really missing out on a lot if you're the player. On the NFL side, careers are so short. I can't imagine players deciding to sit out this year, especially guys that have made a lot of money. And there's not a lot of guys that have made, relatively speaking, obviously there's a lot of guys that made a lot of money, but like that life-altering money forever. All right? Not a lot of money, but like that life altering money forever. All right.

Not a lot of NFL players have done that. And if you're in your prime right now, NFL player, and the data shows that, hey, look, if you're healthy between the age of 20 and 30, that this virus is not going to get you as hard as it will someone else of an older age. And the NFL players would say, look, I'll take the risk. I want my money. I'll play this year and I'll deal with if I get sick. I feel like that is universal across the board of the NFL.

Of course, when you say universal, one player will come out and say that's not true. But I do not think we're gonna have any NFL players deciding to sit out for coronavirus unless unless they have an immune disease which then the doctors might rule them out and I think they'll just get paid anyways for that but I just I can't see a healthy NFL player sitting out at all and say I'm not gonna play this year can't see it happening

so while the NBA all all these different sports, different things they're doing, that just kind of got my attention. Do the NFL players would do this? I mean, look, the whole replacement players loan system like they would do in the English Premier League, I mean, yeah, it's never going to happen, but it'd be hilarious if it did, right?

Someone could bid on Steph Curry, on Blake Griffin, Trey Young. It'll be amazing. It's all going to happen. I just don't think the NFL players are going to sit down. I can't see it happening. All right, guys. I appreciate you joining me this week.

We'll be back on Monday. Have a great, great weekend. Please rate, review, subscribe. Give me feedback at Jeff Schwartz on Twitter, SchwartzNFL.com. You can find me all around, everywhere. All right, guys. Have a great weekend.

Talk to everyone on Monday. Take care, everybody.