Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Daniel Jones Reactions, Baker Mayfield Regression & Mulling Early Retirement

Episode Date: September 24, 2019

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from the athletic i'm jeff schwartz retirement is creeping up on cam noon no the ravens still have not convinced me yet and that includes lamar jackson and okay old minute maybe just a little bit daniel Jones looked pretty good on Sunday. It's Tuesday, September 24th. And this is Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. Welcome back everyone. Another fabulous weekend of football.

Oh boy, Gabe today might be a day that a lot of fans for one particular team have looked forward to as he was drafted by the New York giants. One Daniel Jones Jones for those who don't know how this works Gabe Goodwin producer is going to fire takes from the weekend at me some I will disagree with wholeheartedly I'm sure a lot of them I will some I might actually agree with them starting with the first topic I think oh. Your guy, Daniel Jones beat the box. Can you believe it? Daniel Jones is going to the super bowl. He beat the box. Thanks to a missed bucks field goal.

He had a nice game. He ran one in for the game winner. Uh, but all of a sudden, you know, all of New York is obsessed with Danny dimes. Eli's dead to everyone forget he ever existed this guy's clearly better clearly fixed the whole program in New York obviously we should all be just running our way to Miami for tickets to the Super Bowl and Danny Dimes oh my god I have a lot of crow to possibly eat on this one Gabe Goodwin so I was critical of the drafting of Daniel Jones because according to what I watched in college and the people that I talked to, he was not going to be any good in the pros.

And based on that, he far exceeded expectations against Tampa Bay. Now, they were down 20 to 10 at one point in this game and came roaring back. And I give Daniel Jones credit on that. Two rushing touchdowns, 300 yards passing, two passing touchdowns as well. He played better than expected. He played, Gabe, better than he ever looked in college.

He had the first Giants zone read touchdown, zone read rush, I'd say, ever in New York Giants football history. Eli Manning has never run that play before. ever in New York Giants football history. Eli Manning has never run that play before. So he adds a dimension to the offense that has never, or they've never been able to do in the modern offenses with Eli Manning, right?

Because Eli cannot move. So Daniel Jones being able to score on a zone read, being able to score on a scramble on fourth down, terrible defense by Tampa Bay, all impressive, right? He was able to move in college, we know that. But the throws he made under duress really impressed me. He made throws that made you feel like he knew he belonged.

And these are things I did not see him do in college. I did not see him make these throws under duress, right where they had to be against pro-level talent he just he just did not do that and my job and what i think i do well is not overreacting to one game situations right we look i do a good job of this and people hate it because they don't overreact either way and i'm not going to overreact just looking at his performance in one game against tampa but i will say again that he looked different than he did in college he played the game in a way that is much more helpful to the

giants offense than eli manning which is really running the football. And I was impressed by the way he played. So bravo to him. I'm not ready yet to like eat my words about him as a bust because it's one game and their schedule after they play the Redskins this week. Vikings, At-Pats, Arizona Lions, who are by the way 2-0-1, Cowboys, Jets, Bears, Packers.

So a bunch of good defenses in that mix. But it's very clear why he became the starter, what they saw in him, and bravo to Daniel Jones. He probably took, Gabe, the most shit of any drafted quarterback in recent memory. And it's only because he was drafted sixth overall it wasn't because he was really bad for example if he was drafted at 32 i probably would not have had the same comments i had about him but because he was drafted so high the visceral reaction to that drafting is what made kind of the takes on him go viral it's definitely one place where you

and baker mayfield see eye to eye. There was a lot of skepticism about this dude. And you and Bake were on the wrong side of history. Unless this was just one lucky game. I don't know if you picked up on my sarcasm. I don't understand. Like, why are we all getting that excited yet? I get it.

He's not Eli. I get it. He ran, which is cool. But do the Gi giants actually want a rookie quarterback running for you know touchdowns and sprinting up the sidelines like i don't think the things he did in broken plays were what we're going to see from him every week or that they must be praying that's not what we're going to see again i said that i'm not overreacting to one game and i'm not but i think the bar was so low on him publicly

because of the way he got beat up in the draft, including me. I am not someone who was very high on him. I deserve to get bashed if he ends up being a great quarterback because I was wrong on him. Now, again, I'm not admitting I was wrong because it is one game, to your point, and we need to see him play a full amount of games, even just a month of football before I decide whether or not I'm not admitting I was wrong because it is one game, to your point. And we need to see him play a full amount of games, even just a month of football, before I decide whether or not I'm totally wrong on his play and on his future.

But what's really interesting, Gabe, what if they lost that game? What if Guy makes that kick to end the game? Tampa wins. And by the way, Bruce Arians, really? You move the ball back on purpose. He has a better chance to make the kick. That's one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. I would have loved, by the way, if he had said,

yeah, analytics told me to move the kick back. I would have just, it would have destroyed Twitter. It would have ripped Twitter to complete shreds if he had said, well, my analytics department told me I should move him back five yards. That would have been just, oh my God, it would have been amazing. Just chef's kiss if he had said that. He did not say that, obviously. Would have been incredible. But the narrative obviously changes on this game if he loses, which is why I think you listen to this podcast, is I'm not going to overreact to one game based off a win or a loss. Because if they lose the game,

his performance was still just the same as if they win the game. Yeah. And by the way, the best running back in the league arguably should be standing there next to him in the backfield, but he's out for four to eight weeks during that stretch that you rattled off, which includes several winning teams and a few tough games on the road.

And if you watched the end of the game until Bruce Arians, yeah, outsmarted himself and supposedly moved the ball back five yards to make it easier on his kicker. We'll never understand that theory. But until then, Mike Evans completely torched the secondary, the only player in the secondary who's supposedly any good. I was joking, Daniel Jones, if he's so athletic, everyone, why doesn't he play defensive back? I mean, they got two quarterbacks and zero defensive backs. I don't understand why Giants fans are, like, taking this deep breath.

There's a problem coming still. But, Gabe, the reason why Giants fans are excited is for the first time in at least two seasons, and maybe longer than that even though they made the playoffs in 2016 there's hope again in New York and I say this all the time I think it's very true is the NFL is the best league at selling hope to its fan base and if you have a quarterback you have hope and that's why they're so excited they're excited because this looked different than when Eli Manning was in the game.

And you know this. If Eli Manning was in this football game, this would have been a 42-17 loss. But instead, it was not. They come out of the half. They score right away. Now, Evan Ingram ran for 75 of the 80 yards on the touchdown, right? So it's not on Daniel Jones there.

But calm and cool. He's got to work on his fumbling fighting the bar was set so low for him that this performance win or loss was the most impressive for any kind of first time starter this week and there were a lot of them this weekend so props to him he's not arrived yet Giants fans but for the first time in a long time you have hope moving forward okay i'm gonna maybe it's because i root for the other team that plays at met life so i don't know what the word hope means um we're hopeless all the time you you have a long you have you have a you got a long road buddy and maybe new coach next year well i just i i'm just gonna caution the giants fans listening that one game against the Bucs,

bailed out by a kicker, does not make the next Hall of Fame quarterback. Let's move to a guy who I love, who drives you crazy, who, boy, you're going to cut me off and pile on this one real quick. But Baker and the Browns are now 1-2 after losing to the Rams on Sunday night. The internet basically broke when baker threw a pick on fourth and goal to lose the game he could have run it up the middle for a score like our boy danny dimes did uh but instead he rolled right and threw a pick um on monday all the hot takers called him quote overrated as hell and another called him regressing i think you were kind of already there but uh yes i was yeah go ahead, big boy pile on.

All right. Here's the deal, guys. I told you this was all coming and everyone wanted the love on the Browns and tell us how to win the Super Bowl and win the AFC North and blah, blah. I told you guys this. I told you a couple of things and they have been accurate so far. Baker Mayfield did not play well last year against the best teams he faced. That is not debatable.

The stats show it. The film shows it. The numbers show it. Did not play well last year against the best defenses that he faced. It continues again this season. Did not play well against Tennessee. Did not play well against the Jets.

Did not play well against the Rams. Three really good defenses. The Jets might suck, Gabe, but at least you have defense. Well, I guess sort of because last week you sucked again. But you have Greg Williams obviously. Even then, he didn't play well. The concerning part about

this is that he's clearly, you want to call it regressing, whatever you want to call it, he has not looked the same as last season. And that's alarming. The number one culprit for this is freddie kitchens the head coach i told everyone who would listen that we know nothing about freddie kitchens as a head coach we better know anything about him as a coordinator he took over last year for i believe what eight or nine games as the oc on a sinking ship with no pressure whatsoever. Then you hire him to be the head coach

with no coaching experience, and everyone assumes that he is going to go out and be a great head coach. It blew my mind because whenever we look at brand new head coaches or brand new teams or teams that we trust or we want to win the playoffs, we always look at head coaching, right? Andy Reid, Sean Payne, Sean McVay, Bill Belichick, right?

Always look at coaching. Even when there's a new head coach in town, we look at coaching. But for whatever reason, we ignored that Freddie Kitchens has never done this before and assumed that he is going to be a great head coach. They are undisciplined as heck. There were so many drives in this game that were stalled out by penalties and by poor play.

Then fourth and nine draw play was one of the worst calls I've ever seen. It was so bad that, you know, people can go search up on databases, right? Like to see if anyone had run the football on fourth and eight plus, like what happened one time since 2007 that probably was the end of the game but no one ever called a draw in that situation in like the entire history of

the nfl atrocious the red zone has been the red zone i'm not done yet gabe the red zone has been awful there's no creativity in the offense there is stagnant offense no formations no motions looking like crap baker mayfield in the red zone keeps getting fooled on coverages thinks it's man is now zono now it's oh now it's man and then he has seen ghosts in the pocket yes the offensive line has not been great but there are quarterbacks that play okay with bad offensive lines baker mayfield is seeing ghosts seeing ghosts means he's seeing things that aren't there. Right? So he's dropping back in the pocket.

He thinks there's pressure, and he runs out the back of the pocket. Runs out right. Runs out right. Runs out right. Last play of the game. Just sit in the damn pocket, dude, and make a play.

All this shit talking in the offseason, all the interviews, all the feeling dangerous, all this stuff, man. I told everyone that they wanted to listen. But this game will humble you if you do not wait for your fame. He was going to get famous. I'm watching him suck on Sunday Night Football, all those commercials running about him.

Pat Mahomes, by the way, refused any endorsement deals his first year in the NFL. Refused them. He wanted to wait. That's how it's done. Tom Brady was not famous until about 10 years into his career right like you're aaron rogers was not famous the first couple he didn't even play the first three years of his career wasn't famous till year six or seven but baker mayfield wanted the fame now he wanted to cash on it and it's hurting him say what you want about oh that doesn't matter for preparation it does it's a mental mindset it's a mindset of everything you do in the offseason is geared toward winning

football games in september being the best player that you can be and again you have vacations fine you want to get married fine i'm not not knocking any of that have to have that mental break but all this other shit it matters and we're seeing it matter now uh are you sure you aren't just mad because your brother used to play for the browns you i don't even know i don't even know if this is i know that you're this is your job i don't even know i'm allowed to cuss in my own podcast i think i am who knows i did it for the first time but it's just like i'm laughing it's just like the stupidest thing of all time like browns fans are so angry about my opinion on the browns that they keep throwing out the idea that

um that they uh that they don't like that my opinion is skewed because my brother who hasn't played there in four years he's on the team that's won three straight afc west titles he's been all pro last three years the guy who signed him in kansas city is in is in cleveland now it's so funny dude i just tell it how it is and people don't like it i'm sure the next couple topics we're gonna have um be the same way uh-huh yeah before we move on though real quick i just want to clear something up on that crazy fourth and nine draw play there are those on the internet who believe that baker himself audibled out of that and called a play that he yelled d j Jones at the line, which would be an incredible troll if it didn't backfire on him.

Yeah, this is available to you on the Twitters if you want to look it up. I'm just curious, before digging into the D. Jones part of that, is there any chance Baker was able to call his own play there or came up with that and coach covered for him? Like, could this have not been kitchens but instead been baker there's not a single way this actually happened um so i think people have a a sense of audibles and the way they're run that is very far from the truth so here's the deal guys you don't have a lot of audibles. An audible means you have called one play.

I have called a run to the right and nothing else. Okay. I've called a pass concept. I've called a formation and I've called a, a concept, a passing concept and everyone's in the formation. I then completely change what we're doing on my own. Okay. That's an audible, right?

An audible is not having two plays called the line of scrimmage and killing one of them. That's not audible. An audible is not telling wide receivers what to do after you see the coverage. That's not audible. That's part of the offense. That's built into the offense.

So the idea that Baker Mayfield could either hear the draw called and then get the last image and change the play totally because by the way when you change the draw play not into a pass you've now changed everything right the routes the protection right so you change everything right just not just not the blocking like just not the actual like play you change everything blocking schemesing schemes, routes, everything. It's all changed. That's an audible. Everything changes, okay?

That was not called in the huddle. So, most quarterbacks don't have that freedom. Even Peyton Manning, by the way. He's not really audible. He gets a line of scrimmage. He gets a fake call, right? Red, red, red, right? Red, red, red.

Oh, I said, all right. Nothing happens, right? He then gives hand signals, right? Red, red, red, right? Red, red, red. Almost at hut. Nothing happens, right? He then gives a hand signals, right? All right. Oh, almost at hut. Nothing happens, right? Then he gives a code word that means, okay, we're on now, right? Let's go with on for, he goes, on, on, on, Florida, Georgia, Florida, Georgia. Almost at hut, okay? I mean, that, then they're running Florida, Georgia, right? So one side runs florida once i run georgia the offensive line always blocks the mic in that in that offense typically so that's not audible right he's not changing one

thing to one thing he's just calling a play based off what the defense shows him so people have a misconception of what an audible actually is so there is zero chance baker mayfield checked to a freaking draw play on fourth and nine are you kidding me i think you just made us a little bit smarter i i also have now feel dumber for only understanding a percentage of all of that but i think the bottom line is it's a myth that he audibled and he and kitchens just need to own that one together why don't we move to another topic that's likely to freak you out uh which is happening another team you used to play for the uh the panthers so cam newton missed week three with an injured foot we heard about that um no problem for the panthers they looked probably better without him kyle allen

that was awesome in the 38 2020 win over the Cardinals. Four touchdown passes for Allen. Meanwhile, Cam already out for next week. We don't know how long it's going to take him. So if you look around, you can find this take. Don't freak out at me. This is just something people are saying. Maybe it's time for Cam Newton to pull an Andrew Luck and retire.

We've talked about it a bit on this show, but now I'm going to put it to you. The time has come. It would be good for Cam to not come back to football. He's too beat up. I do not expect him to retire now. I expect him to retire after the season. I've talked about this.

I think it's true in the way that his body is reacting. He is now over 30 years old so when you hit 30 years old as a player your body just changes like my body i was able to recover fine i was able to do what i wanted to do i hit 30 and then my back started hurting and my leg couldn't recover from my surgeries and you just start you start getting beat up dude and he's at the point now where he is so beat up he cannot play football at a high level anymore and it's really tough to take as an athlete when you can't do that anymore and you mentally just get worn down he's been rehabbing now for two or three years straight same as is andrew luck by the

way this is why andrew luck was was fish i covered all that obviously in earlier episodes of the podcast where like you just you get to a point where mentally spending every off season you know having to rehab it mentally grinds you down to a stump and you just can't do any more when you retire and that's what Andrew Luck did a lot of guys do that just not in their prime like Andrew Luck Cam now I believe has what lost the last eight games he started Kyle Allen comes in was fantastic this weekend for the Panthers he did such a fabulous job of just running the offense and this is the offense by the way that norv turner had the panthers running had them running before cam got hurt last season highly efficient offense

multiple formations uh finding unique ways to get the ball on the perimeter. Obviously, McCaffrey being able to go downfield like he did and score a long touchdown was fabulous. All these things are ways the offense was being run before Cam got hurt. Now Cam can't even run the basic principles of this offense. So I don't think Cam is going to retire now, but I definitely don't think they're going to play him unless Kyle Allen ends up really being terrible as we move forward, which I don't think he will be. So our colleague at The Athletic, Joe Person, wrote that he thinks that Cam should sit until after the bye week and just rest the injury and come back then. So is that sort of similar timing that you would suggest yeah but again i don't know if he's going to be

able if kyle keeps playing well how do you play him well right i mean and that's that's part of the indignity here is like if kyle allen turns them around i mean and the stats are staggering the difference between Kyle Allen in this offense and Cam Newton in this offense going back to another start from last year like you know it's it's not defensible you have to go with Allen but Cam Newton is the best player that organizations ever had so they're sort of getting into this Daniel Jones Eli situation so you know by the way Loki the Panthers have had a couple Hall of Famers in their franchise. I'm just going to bring that up.

Okay, well, fine. The best quarterback. Like Julius Peppers' fourth all-time in sacks. All right. Apologies. Best quarterback they've ever had. It would be weird for him to stay on the bench behind a guy named Kyle Allen. That's the weird thing here. So maybe better to just say,

why come back only to be injured again? Like, just call it a day. And I know that's easy for me to say. This isn't my life and my career. And, you know, these aren't my goals that I've been building towards for 30 years. But we all just watched this with Andrew Luck and it seemed like it made a lot of sense

to go say thank you, but I'm done. I just, I guess I don't understand why he wouldn't well well okay unlike unlike andrew luck cam will be leaving the game like currently injured andrew luck walked off the field last year as a healthy player and that means a lot in my career i could have after the giants cut me after my ac, I broke my leg for the second time in a year. I had the opportunity to retire, fail a physical. And there's like an injury insurance thing that happens when you're invested, where you can get up to $1.1 million of your contract.

That's the max. If you make more than $.1 million dollars in the year you can take as insurance benefit for failing a physical retiring i could have gone to 1.1 million i think tax free if i just retired after my eighth season and fail a physical essentially right like you know i see the doctor hey doc my ankle's still bothering me he fails he failed my physical and i retired right could have done that. But instead, I was bullheaded and wanted to keep playing because I wanted to walk off the field under my own terms. And I'm fine with my decision.

I don't regret it. I wanted to come back and just walk off the field on my own two feet and not walk off being carded. And I did. Now, I lost a lot of money. I lost like a million dollars. i i just wanted to do that and i feel fine i don't regret my decision because i'm glad i tried to do it um so like that's the mindset of a player man it's like it's really hard for us to just leave the field on the cart if we know we can kind of get back in and just walk off on our own two feet i'm i'm kind of blown away by that

i'm sitting here with my jaw agape um i'm impressed i i can't get into that headspace and i think that probably besides the obvious obvious physical differences between guys like me and fans at home and guys like you and cam who played the game at the highest level i honestly cannot relate to what you just described that's shocking to me that you know it's a lot it's a lot of money i get it and and i you know and maybe the doctor wouldn't have failed me i mean i you know you have to fail your physical he's not gonna he's not gonna just like fail me because i say my ankle's bothering right like you might have you might have passed me anyways in my physical but you know if i pushed if i pushed hard enough i could have got him to maybe say

I was unhealthy, right? I mean, maybe it's obviously then, you know, gets challenged or whatnot, but that's an option available to you if I decide to pursue that. And I just didn't want to do it. Like, I think I even got an email about it. Like, hey, like, I wonder if I could find the email. Like, hey, man, just want to let you know, I saw, you know, like from the PA or from someone, it was kind of like, hey, I wonder if I can find this email.

That's probably from 2016, where it's like, this is a benefit provided to you if you so take it. Well, you rummage around for that email while I get you to the next topic. And if it comes up, we'll come back to this one

in the back half of the show. But for now, let me move you to Lamar Jackson, We'll come back to this one in the back half of the show. But for now, let me move you to Lamar Jackson, who your Chiefs beat the Ravens 33-28, a little bit closer than some people predicted. Mahomes was nasty, as always, of course. Shout out to my fantasy quarterback, by the way.

But Lamar Jackson, also nuts. He broke a few ankles. You can watch those videos wherever you'd like. He ran for a touchdown. He made it a closer game than it should have been in the fourth quarter with two Raven scores. He's only lost two games in his young career so far. He's 8-2, both times losing at KC. He is still a leading MVP candidate if you check Twitter as often as I do. And he's got the Browns, Steelers, and Bengals in the next three.

All good in Baltimore. Lamar is just fine. Yeah, except against good football teams, he's not very good. I mean, look, if your goal is to just play well against the bad teams, then sure, that's a great goal to set. I'm sure you win a lot of Super Bowls that way. Guys, here's the deal, man. The Chiefs once again exposed this offense as being very one-dimensional.

If it's not staying ahead of the sticks and you're behind a little bit you have no chance i've mentioned this before look it's great lamar jackson has been the bangles the raiders the falcons the bucks the chargers once in in san diego in los angeles when the offense scored 16 points. The Browns, the Dolphins, and the Cardinals. Congratulations on beating murderer's row of NFL franchises there. Now, in the four games

he's played against the best teams, playoff teams, okay? The four games. Kansas City, the first time. 13-24 for 147 yards. Oh, wow. Woo! Killing it. Oh, wow. Woo! Killing it. At San Diego.

I can't say, who cares? They're still San Diego to me. 12 of 22 game in the first meeting last year. Wow. Woo-hoo. Playoff game last year. 14 of 29. Oh, my.

Played the Chiefs again this weekend. 22 of 43. And out of 267 yards, he threw two arm punts that were somehow miraculously caught by Ravens. Look, it's the same argument I make with Baker Mayfield. I'm the same guy. You need to impress me as a quarterback in the league. You have to play well against the better teams you face. For example, Pat Mahomes has now played the Ravens twice.

Right? The Ravens. A great defense. We can acknowledge the Ravens are a fabulous defense. And Pat Mahomes, by the way, is an outlier. He's like Tom Brady. This is not the norm. But I'm going to use him as an example right now.

All right? You ready, Gabe? Yeah. The Ravens, two times. He's thrown for 751 yards and completed 68% of his passes. Those are pretty good numbers he he by the way last year pamela holmes against the rams right really good team right 33 to 46 for 478 yards last year against the broncos good defense right completes 70 of passes in the second game 62 in the first game against the patriotsots, right? No, great franchise, right?

Great, great franchise. He's completed 60% of passes to the 352 yard. Like he plays well against the best teams. Last year, he struggled one time on the road against Seattle. It's tough to play in Seattle now. It might not be so tough anymore for the Saints game. But my whole thing with this offense is it's very limited in what it can do if you get

behind. There's no other way about it. They were down 30-13 in the fourth quarter, or maybe late third quarter. They had, Lamar Jackson, 75 passing yards-ish after three quarters. Like, that's atrocious, man. It's not very good. I get it. They're going to come out this weekend.

They'll probably beat the Dolphins i'm sure they will everyone will be everyone will swoon over the offense again and how great it is how wonderful it is but against the best teams this offense has faced it has not played well in the passing game it hasn't there's no there's no denying that um okay except that they do lead the league in points scored and yards, and he does lead the quarterbacks in rush yards, and he still hasn't thrown a pick. Rush yards don't matter at quarterback. All right, well, hold on.

Okay, well, hold on. So you listed off all the bad teams he's beaten, but you named about eight of them. The guy we talked about to start this show has beaten one of them, the Bucks, who stink and could have beat him anyway. And we're already talking about, oh, he's impressed. He's looked good. I'm not. It's my podcast.

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that I am the voice of reason. I am the one who says, let's calm down all this. Instead of going to a place we shouldn't be. So real question then. Where does Lamar Jackson need to win? What does he need to do to get into that upper tier for you? You laid out a good case.

I don't think we need to compare him to Pat Mahomes. Clearly that's not a fair comparison. But how does he get to that level? You know, Russell Wilson and North. Sort of good quarterback. Dude, Russell Wilson is an amazing thrower of the football. Okay, pick a guy who represents the beginning of the top half. How does he crack that?

Who does he have to beat? What does he have to do to prove to you he's good? Because those of us who just look at fantasy scores, we're pretty impressed. Who does he have to beat? A playoff team, maybe? I mean, like, look good in a playoff game? I mean, like, here's the thing. People, Lamar Jackson's a nice kid from what I've heard, right?

He seems like a great guy. You know, people want to root for him, same as Daniel Jones, because people crapped on him during the the the uh the draft process um including me i did um my my evaluation for kind of offense in general but quarterbacks is can you elevate your team to a victory if things aren't going your way as a team so there's many examples this way right like like your defense is not playing well can you win the game daniel jones by the way did that right he won the game for them now obviously quote win i mean if they make the kick they don't win right so it's kind of that that wins thing is not like the best example because there's ways to kind of

poke holes in that as i just did but can you put your team in a position to succeed when your past game's not working very well your run game's not working well this game your special teams allow two scores your defense isn't good obviously not all this happens in one game but can your can you as a quarterback elevate your offense your side of the ball to help win the game if things aren't going well. And Lamar Jackson so far has not been able to do that. He's great when they're winning, when they're ahead of the chains offensively, when they're rushing the ball well. He's great in all that.

But he's yet to show, and it's a small sample size, of the ability to win a game with the offense taking control of that game. All right, well his next three... And he has the benefit of doubt by the way because he has a great defense so he's able to rely on them to help him win his next three are winnable and russell and and you mentioned russell wilson

we see all the time that russell wilson overcomes a lot to help his teams win, including really bad play calling and philosophy. All right. Well, so he'll have Russell Wilson after that three game stretch where he should go three and oh, then he has, he's at Seattle Sunday night game home against the Patriots, an easy one with the Bengals.

Then he has Texans on the road at Rams, 49ers and bills. So if we come out of that stretch, if we get into December and he's won a few of those games, we're revisiting this topic and talking about whether at that point, when he's going against a layup against the Jets in December, at that point, if you're willing to put him in that upper tier. But I understand your point. He's not there yet. He's not there yet.

I'm sure I'll have a bunch of ravens fans whining in my mentions today and whatnot you know my favorite things about social media game that's how you know that you're doing it well like that you're that you have opinions that that drive attention which is look i believe my opinions i'm not throwing them out there i don't believe in them but they're a little bit contrarian to the public is there people that they don't follow you on twitter like read all your stuff anyways. And they retweet you and say how much they hate you. And then like out of every 10 of their followers that read the tweet,

seven of them click on my profile, start reading my tweets, and three of them follow. And it just continues to grow my following. So thank you to the haters out there that hate my stuff, but still listen to it and comment on it and tweet about it. It really is helpful. I appreciate it. Yeah, I'm not sure it works that way with podcasts, but still listen to it, comment on it, and tweet about it. It really is helpful. I appreciate it. Yeah, I'm not sure it works that way with podcasts, but maybe we'll get some guys who hate listen to the 40th minute of the show.

Why don't we move along, tell people about a few other shows they can listen to at The Athletic, and then play a quick game and get you covering a few more stories in the league. Sound good? Sounds good, buddy. The Broncos are 0-3 with their podcast coverage is undefeated. If you're a fan of the Orange Crust, check out Mile High Magic on the Athletic Podcast Network.

It's hosted by Nikki Javala and Michael Spencer. Together, they will lead you through Vic Fangio's first season in Denver as well as everything on and off the field. Remember, that's Mile High Magic on the Athletic Podcast Network. All right, back to the show. All right, Jeff, it's time to move the line. We do this every Tuesday. I throw some over-unders at you. Some of them are real. Most of them, eh, kind of made them up. So let's go for an easy one we haven't talked about this guy yet today wins for deshaun watson and the texans for the whole season 9.5 they're two and one currently 9.5 over under i had him as a team that was like under like seven and a half oh i know this year so

um oh man that's a good win against san diego i'm never gonna not call him san diego um the chargers in Los Angeles. They have the Panthers. All their fans were still in San Diego. Nobody showed up in L.A., so. I mean, they'll win their next two. They'll be four and one. They'll probably lose in Kansas City.

They'll lose in the Colts. Oh, we're giving out Colts wins now? Okay. The Colts are really good, buddy. I think they're going to be over... Oh, we're giving out Colts wins now? Okay. Colts are really good, buddy. I think they're going to be over... Let's see here. One, five, six... I wasn't thinking we would do the math live on the air.

I think... Let's go... You know what? Screw it. I'm going under still. Screw the Texans. I'm sticking to my guns. Okay.

All right. What goes wrong then? I mean, Deshaun looked amazing. I personally sticking to my guns. Okay. All right. What goes wrong then? I mean, Deshaun looked amazing. I personally think they should not have plays. I think the play should be break the play, let Deshaun do Deshaun things, and they'd be a better football team. But that's because I don't know how football works. Like, why do you think they're not all the way there yet?

I just don't trust Bill O'Brien. He's a good coach. And it's hard for me to bet on teams with bad coaches. Okay. Well, like I said, they should not worry what the coach draws up and let just deshaun just make it up as he goes they'd be better if only it was that simple buddy yeah well all right it looks that simple in kansas city so i'm gonna throw this at you pat mahomes touchdown passes 55 and a half i want to just point out to you that would mean he sets the all-time record for passing touchdowns in a season dude this is wild man like i i would have told you under to start the season

because i feel like there was quote regression you know at some point dude they cannot run the football like they're only going to score via the air so i i oh geez you're like heart palpitations thinking about him throwing over 55 touchdowns. But I think he's going to be over, dude. Like, they're not going to score very much on the ground. Dude, they keep scoring on these screen passes, and they keep scoring in these little underhand shovel passes and all these unique ways to score.

I think that they are going to go over 55 touchdown passes. Yeah, he's on pace right now. I mean, it's three games, so this is where people just have fun with math. But I think we're pacing for like 58 or so right now, which is totally unrealistic. But I mean, 56 is doable if they don't hand it off. I will say a couple of things that could affect this,

obviously, is not playing week 17 if the Chiefs have home field advantage, or at least a second seed locked up. Because Andy Reid has done that in the past. I expect that to not change. He's not going to play Pat if there's no reason to play him. And I will say, and we'll cover this Thursday, but the Lions are going to give him a little test this weekend.

Let's put it like that. It's going to be closer than I think we think in that game. Yeah, it'll be interesting. I'm excited to watch this game this weekend. Interesting. The unbeaten Lions, give them a little test this weekend. That's insight. Yeah, I think Ty should count as a loss.

I agree. It's a loss for everyone involved. No one should be happy with a tie. It is. Okay, we've got a few unbeaten teams, undefeated teams, teams that haven't tied. It's a loss for everyone involved. No one should be happy with the time. Okay. We've got a few unbeaten teams, undefeated teams, teams that haven't tied. I'm talking about not the Lions. So I want to know how many undefeated teams will there be at the halfway point of the season over under one and a half. And I've got some matchups I can run by you.

But right now I want to know. And I've got some matchups I can run by you, but right now I want your gut feeling. Yeah, well, I mean, I think the undefeated teams, well, it'd be over because the Chiefs and Patriots, I think, are still undefeated. Okay, well, that's really what I wanted to know. Do you think both those teams make it to the halfway point undefeated? Yeah, the Chiefs play very well early in the season. And I feel like at times they kind of like lose a game they shouldn't lose yeah uh late in the season and a couple of them and then look week 17 they don't you know they might not play hard so they drop that game so i think that um that i see the patronage team still

being undefeated i mean there's a there's a possibility they're undefeated when they go when kinsley goes into england in week um whatever that week 14 yeah so we got pats and bills we'll get a loser out of this weekend so i'm guessing you're thinking the bills turn into the pumpkin this weekend we got so you didn't mention the cowboys so the pat and the packers are also undefeated so we got packers at cowboys week five so we could still have an unbeaten one of them out of that and then that packers at chiefs could be that game you're talking about week eight where the chiefs lose one they shouldn't lose look the packers defense man wow like they are legit um and i think you look at that that has been the reason why they've been so good so far really good yeah and they got aaron rogers not even playing his best yet

arguing with his coach i mean when they start to click on offense watch out you you hate you hate him i love it all right and then also let's not forget the 49ers have looked way better than expected the rams haven't lost even though they haven't looked amazing so rant niners at rams week six we'll figure out if either of them can get through that undefeated So you're saying over one and a half because you believe the Pats and Chiefs get there. Maybe a few others, too. Yeah. Okay. All right.

Let's move on to we watched the Washington, D.C. football team play last night. Case Keenum, not great. So I want to know how many more starts for him the rest of the year. Point five. Are we ever going to see him on a field again? I think, oh, we see him on the field again. I mean, sure. But I'd start doing Haskins on... That's what I want to know.

Move on. I'd start Haskins and move on, like, very quickly. And so we'll see, obviously, if that's the case. But, Keenan, look, like the Giants, you just wasted your time now maybe you feel that you know just happens it's not even close to being ready yet and so therefore you're just kind of waiting but again like I I I think you go ahead and you rip the band off and play them well last night it would have been more than a band-aid he would have needed

to go up against that Bears defense. So it made sense that they didn't. It would have been extremely tough. Yeah, it made sense they didn't do that. So if they think that that guy could be their future quarterback, waiting for the right moment to slot him in, like maybe against the Bucs, a team that stinks, that can make a rookie quarterback look great and a world beater,

maybe if they can find a game like that, they find their chance. Okay, okay. You're a Jets fan. Shouldn't you hate, like, shouldn't you hate, like, the Patriots, not the Giants? I do. Don't worry. It's like this little brother syndrome with Jets fans. No, we have plenty of hate.

We can spread it all around the Northeast. We got issues with Philly, too. Don't worry. Everyone causes us problems. Everyone has issues with Philly, too. Don't worry. Everyone causes us problems. Everyone has issues with Philly. Yeah. Well, let's go.

We need to have producer Matt just chime in on this Redskins segment. He was very depressed last night. Well, I think Thursday. You two are having a rough go of it this year. Yes, we have had a rough go of it. We're winless so far. You'll get a chance at him on Thursday for our paying subscribers of The Athletic. You guys do that show on Thursday. He'll have more to say, I'm sure. By then, maybe they'll have made the decision to start Haskins. For now, let's go to

Philly real quick. I would like to know how many excuses will be made for Carson Wentz's loss next week over under 17.5 excuses? I saw this in the rundown I started laughing oh my god over right over it's always over oh it's never his fault Carson Wentz though too never is I love Carson Wentz I agree it's never his fault uh Eagles are injured uh beat up dude I'll tell you what though so there was that uh that clip that was floating around by the Eagles offensive line you see that one oh yeah yeah so Eagles offensive line. You see that one? Oh, yeah. Yeah. The offensive line didn't block for 45 seconds.

What's wrong with them? That's not really the issue, in my opinion, is that when he got hit, they all just stood there. And that shows more to me than not blocking for eight seconds. It looks like they're fed up with Carson Wentz right now. really oh wait a second you're surprising me here i thought you were gonna just defend the lineman because he did something wrong and he should have let go of the ball or i no no oh no no they 1000 he's 1000 should have thrown the football and the line was fine i'm saying that that there it it looks like they're the line is not happy with him right now huh but but but they should have they he should throw the football three man rush throw the football he got he got first hit at six seconds dude yeah i mean for those who

haven't seen it there's this clip that it it looks like they're all just standing there, but the play had been, in their minds, over. It was one of those plays where you see the line is like, why isn't the ball out? Where's the ball? We're totally confused. Meanwhile, everyone was meeting on top of their quarterback. So it did look suspicious, but you think really maybe they're tired of him? They don't like how it's working with him as the quarterback? No, I don't think they're tired of him. I think they're tired of him? They don't like how it's working with him as the quarterback? I don't think they're tired of him. I think they're tired of him just not throwing the football on time. Okay.

Like just being out of rhythm in the offense. I think they're tired of that. I think they still like the guy because he's supremely talented, but they're just tired of not being able to get the ball out in rhythm and the offense just suffering because of it. All right. I will not be surprised by any outcome on the Eagles season. We could easily see them, you know, back deep into the playoffs or they could be drafted, you know, fourth.

I think anything's possible with that team right now. No idea what we're getting week to week. I feel like that's very possible as well. Yes. All right. Last one. And this is a quickie. Weeks Ray Lewis will last on dancing

with the stars over under 3.5 remember the competition they're not great i would say i would oh it's not great this year uh well you know depends on your taste but is he doing well i don't think i have that information jeff i'm not here to make you smarter on dancing i would say i i don't know i i'll get him off the show as soon as possible. Okay, fair enough. I would say in his prime, great feet, great dance moves, you know, got famous for dance moves, but I don't think that the thing he did coming out of the tunnel

translates to like a rumba or some sort of ballroom step. So I feel like he's not made for this and he's eliminated quickly. I would 10 degree agree with you. Yes. Okay. All right. Let's get to some social mailbag. We like to keep track of what people are firing away at.

This one comes from Patrick Dable. I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly. Patrick it's at D A B E L O seven. He says millions of dollars into leading tech for concussion prevention equipment, millions into replay review. Multi-billion dollar stadiums. First down technology?

Two guys carrying poles in a chain. He's got a point. We're not doing great with the first down technology, Jeff. Thoughts? We are not. But out of all the things that are kind of done of done by hand this to me is not the worst the idea the um the the way they do punts is mind-blowing to me so you kick a punt in the air and then the um and then it goes out of bounds and the the official standing behind the punter signals the referee

who's down the sidelines went to stop and spot the ball okay i thought that they threw a hat where they think the ball landed and that's how they did it something more precise no the hat is has to do with a player running out of bounds. Ah, okay. Another one of their very technologically advanced techniques. I see. Correct. Yes.

So let me ask you this, because I think Patrick's getting at this. When the runner is down, the ball gets marked initially. Then another official will sometimes move it a few inches one way or the other. And we at home see that in comparison to the imaginary first down line, you know, that the network inserts. What's going on there? Okay, so the guys who spot the ball are right on the sidelines, right? right on the sidelines right so like the the umpire who has the ball like first like let's say there's a run and the ball is put down it might be the wrong guy who's actually spotting like he just puts the ball down where he thinks it's going to go based off where the alignment

is of the official running in but that side judge line judge i don't even know the name of the guy is the one who's officially placing the ball somewhere but okay it appears as we know some of these officials have things in their ears it appears to some of us that maybe somebody is directing no move the ball now it looks that way there have been some very weird marks this year and also a huge amount of penalties the first two weeks what do you know which is less than that they less than that yeah way less this week hmm something's going on i think it sounds fishy jeff the officials seem like they're keeping track of what the fans at home or the league off somebody's in there somebody's in their ears man

right what's wrong with that okay forget it i was trying to see if i could take you to some area 51 territory i i think i've run out do you have anything left i don't i i do not peddle in area 51 territory i have nothing left so we appreciate you joined a little long today but i think really enjoyable covered a whole wide range of things uh you can find this episode if you listen to the whole thing, obviously you know where to find it. But for future, iTunes, on Apple Podcasts, on Google Podcasts,

The Athletic, of course, athletic.com, Athletic Podcast Network. And we'll be back on Thursday with so much more. Have a great couple days, everyone. Please let me know how you enjoyed this episode

at Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. Until then, take care. All right. how you enjoyed this episode at Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. Until then, take care. All right.