Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Deion’s Big Signing Day News and the Best Bets for NFL Week 15

Episode Date: December 16, 2021

Geoff and Matt open the show discussing Deion Sanders flipping the nation’s number 1 prospect from his alma mater, FSU, to come play with him at Jackson State. Geoff explains how this move is a good example of the chaos NIL deals and the transfer portal are bringing to college football… and why he can’t get enough of it.(14:23) Then Geoff and Matt work though every game on the slate for Week 15 of the NFL season to give you the five best bets of the weekend, highlighting a few games they’re definitely going to bet on (Steelers vs. Titans, Saints vs. Bucs) and a few they’re not touching with a ten-foot pole (The Jets, always the Jets).  COVID is running wild through the NFL this week, so bet with caution-- and be safe wherever you’re listening from.Make sure to leave a rating and comment if you enjoyed the show!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, December 16th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart Year. You're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. It is our gambling preview episode. We're going to talk a little bit about college bowl games. It comes, not the big ones, but some of those I like heading into this weekend. We have a college bowl game starting on Friday all the way through the weekend, even on Monday and Tuesday. And we'll do our NFL as usual. We had a winning week. We were 3-2 last week. It was an up and down 3-2. Brown our NFL as usual. We had a winning week. We were 3-2 last week. It was an up and down 3-2. Browns were up 24-3, didn't cover.

And the Bucs had to win overtime with a touchdown for us to cover that game. And there's also college news. We'll talk about today's signing day as we record this. There's some groundbreaking, historic news in college football. Matthew, how are you? I'm good. I just want to point out that we do a video recording of this and our producer Hank was just on screen drinking water and staring at me until one second ago. Yeah, he just went off screen. He's just off screen now. Now I can pay attention

and really focus about on the Louisiana Lafayette bowl game or whatever the hell we're doing. But yeah, man, we've had a good couple weeks. We should have had a better week last week. We were right about all kinds of things, but we knew it was coming with Cleveland. We just knew we were going to be on the wrong side of a few of those, but I don't know. I think we turned a corner here.

We were on the right side of the Browns. The problem is, and we'll get to the NFL, is there's so many COVID issues in the NFL right now. It is hard to determine who's playing, who's not playing. And it's going to make our week of handicapping very, very difficult. And we're going to give you numbers because we're recording this on Wednesday that are not going to be there on Sunday. Yeah, even after tonight.

And I'm not even sure. I know the Super Contest will set their picks tonight. But good luck, I mean, to them. But we've also gotten zero help on getting the best number this year. So it hasn't mattered. We've had numbers move seven points because of injuries, and we got the best number. It has not mattered.

But let's start with, not with college bowl games, but there actually is a bit of college football, some big news today out of Jackson State. Yeah, the number one recruit is going to play for Deion Sanders uh Travis Hunter um he flipped him from FSU Deion's alma mater uh to go play for for an HBCU in Jackson State uh this is sort of this feels like a little bit of a sea change to me Jeff uh what's your take on this yeah so pretty impressive uh haul by Deion here. Yeah, I think they went 10-1 at Jackson State this past season too. So he's done a really good job there. And this is the product of Deion Sanders being a fantastic recruiter

because it doesn't go without mentioning that he got – the relationship has to be with Deion. But name it what you like. We've talked about it on the show, right? It's something, the relationship has to be with Dion. But name of the gelentist, we've talked about on the show, right, is something that the NCAA has allowed as they should because no other industry do we ever say, hey, you can't make money off your name of the gelentist. No one in this, look, I am not a draw for the podcast advertisers,

but I'm not limited in marketing my name. But for college athletes, we somehow put a cap on it and we think it's okay. Now, obviously, the cap was lifted. And what DNC does works for Barstool Sports. I would not be surprised if Barstool gave Travis an NIL deal in the million-dollar range, like expensive NIL deal. And when name and likeness happened,

the naysayers, as Bea jones said the fuddy duddies which my dad also uses a fantastic word fuddy duddies it's incredible um i saw him tweet that today my dad says it all the time i love it um fuddy duddies that said name and likeness will only help alabama and ohio state and clemson no no no it's helping jackson state right byu has an entire program set for walk-ons to get money. It's helping everywhere, right? It's helping Olympic sport athletes. And this is an instance where it really helped Travis Henry

and helped Jackson State and Deion. Now, Deion's probably going to get a big-time job after the season. If he continues to win at the rate he was winning this past season, he will get a big-time job. Maybe it is Florida State. As we're talking right now, do you know what Twitter Spaces is? Yeah. Yeah, I do. Okay. I've never been in one, time job maybe it is florida state as we're talking right now do you know what twitter spaces is yeah yeah i do okay so i've never been in one but i know there is one called fire mike norvell who's the florida head coach and it had it 5 000 people are in it it's incredible

it's florida state fans vending for those who don't know it's basically an audio platform where it's like sports talk radio you just just call in, but instead of calling in, a host says, hey, just like, okay, Jeff, you're up. And you just say your piece. And it's just unbelievably funny. Big Cat from Barcelona was trolling everyone today. And like the fans are out of control. It's like this whole new cultural world. It's all different now, right?

Fans are losing over NIL deals, over recruiting, over flips, over this and that. And I love it. It's a chaotic sport. And it's even more chaotic now. And coaches who don't get on board. Dabo Sweeney is one of them from Clemson who said, ah, transfer portal. Get rid of it.

Make the kids wait another year before they transfer. Buddy, this is where we're at now. And if you can't get on board with transfer portal, with NIL, you will be left behind. And Deion Sanders obviously got on board with this. So good for Deion. Good for Travis. Good for the sport of college football. A five-star kid is not going to a Power Five, going to Jackson State.

I love all of that. Me too. I mean, I think if you were to say college football has a problem, it's that every year it's the same couple fan bases that get to go to the playoff, the same couple teams that pull in to go to the playoff the same couple teams that pull in the biggest recruits and this is a sea change and like let's i mean we should mention too like how great this is for hbcus and like how great this is just for college athletics in general like there's more if if this i'm blanking on this name if travis hunter

becomes like a top 10 nfl pick, then this whole sort of narrative of where you go kind of changes and we see it once in a while with small school kids getting their chance or even just outside the big name schools kids getting chances. I think that there's a, I don't know, this bodes really well

to me. And you know, it would be a shame if Deion left. I think that there's something cool about spreading the wealth around and i you know for florida state fans sorry to say that but i i do think i i hope he stays you you made um uh a point of of obviously how this is going to change what's happening around college football and it certainly will but also the point of the draft status right because people are saying well if he goes to jackson state then maybe he's gonna get drafted as high as he would at florida state it's that's totally possible that's totally possible but if he's good enough he'll be drafted anyways right and like if you're good enough yeah you might not get the money early on

but at some point you're gonna get paid if you're good enough right so he obviously feels that the money he might earn in name and likenously better suits his family now and his needs now that does waiting three years for the NFL so like look at look at like Trey Lance just went number three he went to North Dakota State like it might even benefit and played like yeah season that was then there was a year off between he was able to yeah I'm it's it's it's a really great day for college football, in my opinion. And as we head into bowl season, it's worth pointing out, guys,

this is a bowl season unlike any other. And I'm going to give you some wagers I like, but I don't know if the players are going to be playing these games. True. I have no idea who's opting in and out. We have games with coaching staffs who are at other places. For example, Myle Martin, Oregon,

Mark Cristobal went to Miami. There's like three, four or five coaches on that team that are in Miami that are working for Miami, but also coaching the bowl game. Our OC, Joe Moorhead, the head coach of Akron, coaching the bowl game for Oregon. This plays all over the country. of Akron coaching the bowl game for Oregon. This plays all over the country. We have players who I mentioned might opt out still. We have situations where motivation is a big part of these bowl games. So we're going to approach bowl season very lightly.

Again, unless you know well about these teams, it feels very tough to wager on them, especially, again, if quarterback, if you're like, ah, I don't know if this guy's going to play or not, which is really hard to bet on a team. And I'm going to go there first because I actually do think that Grayson will play, but Grayson McCall is a quarterback of Coastal Carolina. He's a pro prospect. Maybe he stays one more year, completing 73% of passes,

12.5 adjusted error rates per attempt. And Coastal Carolina hosts, not hosts, I guess they don't host anyone, probably Northern Illinois. They're favored by 10, 10.5. I'm taking Coastal here. Coastal's offense is number one in the country in success rate. They're number one on third down.

They're number one in passing success rate. They are second in explosive play rate, second in points rate. They're a legit offense. Northern Illinois' defense, and it's good to fade bad defenses in bowl games. It's not like they have a magic potion they developed in bowl season. They're 117 in success rate. They're 126 in rushing, 111 in limit explosive plays. Coastal Carolina, to me, has not won a bowl game yet they've won a

lot of the 21 and 3 i believe last two years so they're due for a big bowl one in my opinion and i i think they they trounce the northern illinois huskies interesting i mean hey this is a podcast where you get a coastal carolina pick that's giving the people their money's worth uh what else you got okay so i'm gonna have some fun this one. I honestly don't know if this is going to work, but I'm trying to find ways to make some money in this bowl season. Western Kentucky plays App State Saturday at 11 a.m. in Boca Raton. What a bowl game. Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl.

App State's a good defense. They've allowed over 30 points only one time this season, and that was in a loss to Louisiana Lafayette. I think it's called the Louisiana Cajuns now. The Raging Cajuns. Otherwise, they're a really good defense. But I'm going to root for offense in this game. I'm taking Western Kentucky.

Their team total is 31. I'm going to take over 31 points. They have a quarterback that no one's heard of who is very good. His name is Bailey Zappi. Okay. Bailey Zappi. Okay. Bailey Zappi. He has attempted 639 passes this season. That is a lot of passes.

For reference, Bryce Young, who just won the Heisman, attempted 462. This guy has 200 more pass attempts. He's completing 70% of those passes, 56 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. App State has a good defense. What they don't have is a havoc-y defense, assuming a havoc-y defense at backfield. They don't force a bunch of turnovers with their secondary.

Don't have a lot of tackles for loss. Don't have pass breakups. So I'm going to go over 31 points here for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense. They're third in points per drive on offense. They score a ton of points. The over has hit in their games 70% of the time so far this season. They're over their point total, over by the game point total by 50.

What do you mean? By five points. They score a ton of points more than the line gives them. I'll take over 31 total points for Western Kentucky. Team total over Western Kentucky. Let's go. That's a deep cut. Hey, by the way, the Zappy kid is close to setting the FBS record

for passing yards. Yes. Which is kind of incredible. I'm in one of these bowl confidence pools. Are you in one of those? I'm not i'm not doing that it's too crazy i'm curious though if you if you had to make a choice right now putting you on the spot the team that you're most confident in to win their bowl game who would it be alabama that's fair that's fair i remember last year or maybe it's two years ago you talked about a specific matchup

in like the sun bowl i think based on that matchup is does that still apply this year what what was the sun it was basically like the sixth best team going to las vegas that's a vegas bowl so tell the people no it doesn't know the vegas bowl has changed now uh the vegas bowl is like an acc team now it's actually actually a not a half bad game normally the vegas bowl is a pretty bad bowl game and this year it is going to be um it's a pac-12 school should probably should know it's my job to know this it's uh yeah so i thought it's arizona state wisconsin it's a good football game yeah normally it's a big time today normally we get it, it used to be in the Vegas Bowl, Pac-12 6 against Mountain West 1.

Huh. And we would get our asses kicked in that bowl game. Not anymore. But the last game I want to give out right now is Oregon State against Utah State. You know I'm 31-12 in the Pac-12 conference this year. I'm going to Oregon State here, minus the seven points. They're number, what is it, number two in the country in wrestling success rate.

They're number four overall in success rate. They're 29th in explosive play rate. They're eighth in points per drive. They have a real defense. Their defense is good. Excuse me. Their offense is good. Their defense is bleh.

They fired their OC, and they've been better lately. It's their first bowl game since 2013. They're playing, by the way, the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. Yeah, how funny. They're playing Utah State. Utah State just trounced San Diego State. Before that game, they had not beaten anyone with a winning record in FBS since Washington State in week one.

They beat them by three with a postgame expected win percentage of 24%. They beat the five worst teams in the Mountain West Conference this season. Now, they blew out San Diego State in the title game, in the back, which is odd because their defense is atrocious. They're 106th in explosive play rate. They're 94th in passing success rate. They're 94th in passing success rate. They're 90th in drives per game. They just don't get off the field.

They're not good on third down. So I think Oregon State, with their offensive line, trounces them. On the flip side, too, Utah State's offense, 104th in success rate. Just kind of not a good offense as well. 106th in rushing the football. Like, I'm just i think

organization is a better team they're motivated they're in la the jimmy kimmel la bowl give me the beavers i love it jeff if if you're picking against your our tribal it must be the right call so oh i'm picking for them i want yeah that's what i'm saying as a as a duck though i want the It must be right. All right, let's get to the NFL. I just, I don't know, man. What do we do with this week? Yeah, I mean, we're still in the midst of a lot of COVID uncertainty. There are a few games I really like, assuming that everyone is, you know, there aren't any big changes. But take this with a grain of salt, Jeff.

I mean, listeners, and Jeff, I think you and I should probably like give a few caveats like, hey, if this changes, you know, maybe don't go for this, but we'll figure it out. We're going to end up with five no matter what. Well, so we're three and two last week, like we mentioned. And certainly, look, COVID is going to change a lot of what we do, right? Because right now there's some lines that if we get guys back or whatnot, let's start with maybe one of the best Thursday night games of the entire season. Maybe ever.

But like Chiefs have three starters not playing. Probably because of COVID. The Chargers left tackle is not playing presumably because of COVID. Like I don't know, Matt. How do you feel about this game? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, jones not playing that the line by the way that we're getting uh on wednesday afternoon is uh chargers plus three at

home um but i mean the the chief's defense has sort of come alive because of chris jones like the they've really turned it around with his return with him potentially not playing uh plus legeria sneed has been great in their defensive backfield i i just don't know how you can really handicap uh what the chiefs are going to be able to bring here and meanwhile like derwin james didn't play last week we don't know what's going on with keenan allen we don't know what's going on with austin eckler like i if this were even i think i would probably just take i i don't even know what i would have taken because the line would have shifted, but I don't know. I think we have to pass this one.

Chiefs defense, if Chris Jones was playing, this is a – I mean, I think we stay away from Thursday night for most games. I would have leaned Chiefs here minus a three if we are – if Chris Jones was playing. Because for Sean Slater, their left tackle for the Chargers being out is a huge, huge loss for them. Huge loss for them. But Chris Jones is equally as big for the Chiefs.

And Willie Gay might not be playing or their linebackers, which Snee's not going to play, right, I believe. It's just not good. Chiefs defense allowed nine points in three straight games. Their defense is, believe it or not, started as a dumpster fire. Really bad. Now up to 17th in DVOA. They started there with 32nd for weeks for weeks their offense

which has kind of been like sputtering along yeah right travis kelsey disappeared i mean when's the last time that guy had a good game um mahomes by the way special sorry mahomes is uh 11 two and one against the spread when he's not favored by less than three um or three or not under three i should say i think we just stay away from this one because again like it's so hard to to deal with this covid yeah i think it's just got to be a pass um all right well moving on to another game we're probably going to have to pass because of covid is the saturday first game uh raiders at browns the browns have 18 players on the covid list uh stefanski today uh was announced he has covid i believe this is the second time for him which is unfortunate um yeah he missed the

brown they won that's right the browns were were uh really good last week against baltimore for most of the game in the game we've already discussed. I don't know. I don't really know how we can make a pick on this one yet. The Raiders are favored by one as of right now. Yeah, the Browns are favored by six earlier in the week. We can't. Browns have 18 guys on the COVID list. It's like, how do you handle this?

We can't make a play for this one. I'm sorry, everyone. I know you're tuning in to listen to Browns Raiders talk, but we can't make a pick on this. If this is still a six, I might lean Raiders. Yeah. But the under feels like a good play here

because the Raiders don't really score. The Browns have had trouble scoring, especially if everyone's out, but 39 now. It feels just like we can't do it. We just can't do it. It would be really tough if you're a Raiders player this week.

It seems like they don't have quite the COVID situation uh yeah i don't actually know if anybody on the raiders is does there anybody on the raiders who's like got a covet situation right now i don't i don't think so i don't imagine like going to cleveland and playing these guys it's like that that actually would be kind of terrifying i feel like um so anyways uh the saturday night game pats at colts uh this is one that doesn't have a lot of COVID stuff, thankfully, knock wood. The line here is two and a half, minus two and a half for the Colts. This has moved quite a bit. What do you think?

Where did this start at? This opened as New England as a favorite, I believe. God, I wish we could get three on this. Interesting. I'm actually on the Colts here. Really? Yeah. I mean actually on the Colts here. Really? Yeah. I mean, for a few reasons.

The first is the Pats weakness on defense. If there is one, is the running game. Like they haven't. They're pretty good rushing the pass. Their secondary is good, but they're middle of the pack defensively against the run. They're both off a buy. So there's not like some you know magical bill belichick advantage here i think being in the dome takes away a little bit of a gimmickry

of the gimmickry that the patriots can sort of use this is a big public dog in new england's like i don't think that anybody in the public is gonna kind of want to fade belichick right now leonard and buckner should be back for the colts which has always been a key for them the pats also have covered seven straight. I don't know if they're going to be able to do that against another really good team at home off a bye. So I don't know. I think I like the short home favorite against the public dog.

Rooting for the Colts is something this podcast does not do. That's right. But, jeez, I'll put it for the maybes. I mean, I'll put a maybe on this one last week we went with our favorite ones because it's i was like you know what i'm gonna trust matt's instincts on this one maybe you can root for the colts i'll just root for someone something else to happen um look i i just i'm always terrified about with carson wants to get a good defensive coordinator who had two weeks to prepare like yeah they could run the football sure but what if they can't well if they're not says you

know what you're not running the football on us I mean has anyone been able to stop Taylor honestly like I don't have that concern did Tampa slow him down yeah I mean Tampa slowed him down there's been you know the differences when Taylor runs for 100, the Colts are undefeated when he doesn't. Yeah, but that's one of those stats that is, that just means they're winning. They're winning because they run the football more. All right, maybe we'll stay away from this for now. Yeah, it's a maybe.

We got to find five. So caution, caution that we might not find four others we like better. Speaking of, yeah, so this is probably one of those. The Cowboys are playing the Giants at MetLife. No Danielones or it's looking like he might be done for the year uh plus 10 and a half is the current line i guess it's we're not even sure about glennon right it looks like it might be glennon or from for the giants yes but problem for dallas is they don't have their left tackle. Correct. And they suck without their left tackle.

Dak Prescott has not looked the same the last couple of weeks because I think his calf is just kind of bothering him still. I mean, I just hate these lines so much. I hate this game. The Cowboys should kick the Giants' ass. The Giants are terrible at covering games at home. They don't have... They have four players on COVID,

including John Ross and Kadarius Toney. I think the Cowboys are the player. Nothing here. Yeah, I don't like it. I don't think they're beating anybody by 10.5 right now, especially without Smith. I think this is just a I don't think they're beating anybody by 10 and a half right now, especially without Smith. I think this is just a total stay away. They probably win by 500.

Yeah, I mean, the Giants got absolutely blown out last week. Yeah. God, I don't know. I would lean Giants to that number, but that's just, it's just a pass. We're not taking the Cowboys minus 10 and a half on the road.

Sorry, no chance. I'd rather, I'd rather take one of these two teams. The Texans or the Jaguars. Then Cowboys minus 10 and a half. The Jags are laying four right now. This feels like one of those games that we should have a read on because no one's going to bet this. But I can't on either side.

I don't have it. If it was a three, I think we'd take Jacksonville. Yeah. But at four, I'm just not doing it. Because Davis Mills is 0 for 7 now, and they have lost, they've lost one game by less than double digits since he started. But he's been better. His numbers the last couple weeks have actually much improved.

They were a little punchy early in that game against Seattle. Yeah. Matt, I hate this. These lines this week are just the freaking worst. Yeah, there should have been good games. This COVID thing is really brutal. They're so bad. This is killing us.

You're right that I think the Jags would have been the play, and this has actually moved, despite this being a pretty popular public dog in the Texans, all the sharp money is on Jacksonville, which is very strange. Is it really? Do we have to take Jacksonville then? I don't think we take it at the four. It was at three and three and a half,

and it just felt like the public is coming in on the Texans and the little action this is getting, and the sharps are on Jacksonville. But I'm not buying it, Jeff. I would like to stay far away from this game. Okay, let's stay far away. This one I have some interest in. Tennessee at Pittsburgh. Tennessee a two-point road favorite this has moved around a bunch too uh we're seeing

it at tennessee minus two i mean you know what i'm gonna say i don't even want to say it i don't want to say it but like but like you just you just ride with the record? Yeah. So Pittsburgh has won five straight as a home dog. This is where Tomlin is the best in the NFL by a lot. Pittsburgh actually undefeated at home this year. They're 4-0-1. The Lions' weird tie is one of those games. They're getting a little bit of extra rest. Tennessee getting a little bit of a bump for shutting out Jacksonville.

But Tannehill's just not been good this year. 14-13 touchdown-interception ratio. This team is just not the same without Derrick Henry, obviously. I hate taking Pittsburgh again. I feel like we take them every week. But I just think you have to. I think that they're in a really good spot here. And Tennessee's kind of peaking because they just had a nice showing.

So, Tomlin's now, what, 13-3, 14-3-2 at home as a dog? Something like that. It's like 80-plus percent. It's remarkable. I think you're right. The hope, I think, here is that Pittsburgh now, I think they had a lot of 100-yard rush in the first half in like 240 games in the last two games.

Like they're a prideful team. They're not going to get run over again this weekend. Titans dealing with some injuries on their offensive line. I think the play here is really the steep. What's a road favorite in Titans? I'll take Pittsburgh here. Traditionally, I don't have the stat in front of me, but Vrabel has not been good in these sort of close games that are under three.

And this is a great Tomlin spot. So I think in a week where nothing is really certain, we do know one thing for sure, which is Mike Tomlin is awesome. It's a home dog. Yes, agreed. I would put that one through. Cardinals at Lions. Here's another confusing one.

The Lions have been great against the spread uh this this season uh they're getting 13 and a half at home but their whole team is on is on the coveted list uh we're up to nine as of now um but they're not but they're not they're not important players though right but swift is still probably going to miss this game i think and jamal williams has yeah they're not they're not a lot of important players um okay deandre hopkins is out for the rest of the regular season so he's not playing this game is that official yeah oh boy uh it came out right before we started wow um so that's a big loss for this offense they're not the same

without hopkins but they played really well on the road so far this season because of seven on the road two of those are with colt mccoy as quarterback i really like the lions here 13 and a half points it's a lot of points man but jeez i just the lions i just it's just so upsetting. This is a tough one. I think if you're going to bet this, you're going to get a better Lions number in a couple days because I think the COVID thing is going to scare people. Everyone's going to like Arizona on the road.

Awful loss. Everyone's going to like them, but maybe the Hopkins thing doesn't drive this number. I just think, I don't know, if this were plus 14, maybe. Yeah, I tend to agree there. It's just, I don't feel great about it. Not that I feel great about all of these all the time, but the next one, though, I actually do feel good about.

Let's call that one a maybe. Panthers at Bills. Sorry, there's some construction in my building, if that's through the panthers are at the bills you're in new york the bills are laying 11 right now yes yeah give me the bills um yeah okay talk to me well they just got well they got embarrassed in the first half of that game they came back and played much better than the second half of the game. More than anything else, guys, the Panthers suck. They're terrible. They're rotating quarterbacks right now.

They don't have an offensive coordinator. They've lost three in a row. They lost to Washington at home, scored 21 points. They lost to the Dolphins, scored 10 points. Lost to the Falcons at home, scored 21 points. They're rotating quarterbacks. They're playing a defense in Buffalo that's still first in DVOA. Now, Buffalo's offense has not

been quite as good as we expected this season. However, they played much better in the second half of that game, but Carolina is just not a good football team. They're 27th in DVOA as a full team. Buffalo's fourth. I think Buffalo, again, this is kind of a warm-weather team, a

Panthers team in Charlotte, on the road to Buffalo to play a team that is upset about it, just a close loss. They need to win the worst way. One issue I do have, though, is Josh Allen's foot, supposedly. It's a little beat up. But, man, Sam Darnold might play this game, or Cam Noon, or PJ Wong.

Who the hell's playing this game I mean but the same question for Buffalo I mean if if Trubisky has to play at all the laying the 11 is scary if they like Buffalo has to win this game so they're gonna play Allen I don't know I mean I I liked this a lot and the Allen thing is a little bit terrifying that when they win this year every game they've won i think it's been a blowout like they've won by 18 15 30 25 like they they tend to cruise in the games where they get ahead and they've just had some bad luck in these close ones so i think it makes sense to me that 11 is a strange number.

And the Josh Allen thing is just... It doesn't matter when they win the game by 21. Yeah. I mean, if you feel really strong, yeah, that's fine. I do, because if Allen plays, this is not going to be close. Yeah. I mean, Darnold coming back, does that even help? By the way, Cam Newton, how many starts in a row has he lost like like 12 it's something crazy a bazillion yes yeah that's been a really strange thing to follow so all right

buffaloes and maybe uh jets dolphins my god another covid game so just wait this just we can we can let's save everyone's time yeah we're seeing waste our time. We're seeing 10. We're not taking the Jets. Washington at Philly. Philly is favored by six right now. What do you think? Not the best line for this game. But Washington's too deep on the defensive line. It's like all out.

They're all not playing. Because of COVID and injuries. Eagles are just going to run the ball down their throat the entire game. You got to take Eagles here, right? It's a defensive line. It's like all out. They're all not playing because of COVID and injuries. Eagles are just going to run the ball down their throat the entire game. You got to take Eagles here, right? It's a terrible line. This line opened at like two. It's at six. Yeah, it got to four and a half.

Now it's six. I think Philly's going to just kick their ass. What do you think? A hundred percent. Heineke may or may not play. I don't know. But I feel better about Gardner-Minshew than I do of Heineke or of Kyle Allen. Oh, a mclaren you mentioned the covet across the defense like that washington's

defense is just gashed uh last i think that they're getting a lot of credit for being a tough team but they just don't have players and the places where they're the most vulnerable are on both their lines which is the eagle strength um i think Philly's definitely the player. Yeah, it's 100% the player. Just make sure that if you have not congratulated Daniel Snyder via text message for something, you might as well go do that now. Otherwise, he's going to hold a grunt against you. Your owner, by the way, go look that story up. Your owner is insane.

Worst owner in sports. Absolutely the worst owner. He needs to get out of the NFL. All right, next up, we have a little game, He's the worst owner in sports. Absolutely the worst owner. He needs to get out of the NFL. All right, next up, we have a little game, an interesting game in Denver. Yeah, this is going to be probably the most fun game of the week, I think. Cincinnati at Denver.

Denver laying two and a half right now. They're getting 80% of the money and only 40% of the bets. Very curious what you think here. We've seen this season that when everyone, the Bengals are on this thing where they play well and then it's like, oh, they take this dip, right?

Yep. They played well, like they were five and two. Oh my God. They're making the playoffs. Yep. Lose the Jets and Browns. Blow the Raiders out.

Blow the Steelers out. Lose the Charets and Browns. Blow the Raiders out. Blow the Steelers out. Lose to the Chargers and Niners. I'm very happy to take the Bengals here plus two and a half. These teams are next to each other in DVOA. And the Broncos are off a big win. I mean, this line's inflated because the Bengals lost to the Niners. I'm happy taking the Bengals here. I don't really have a great like statistical reason why um but i just think that they need to have a win so does denver too

but they just they need they need a win man denver's rush defense by the way is 25th and dvoa the bangle could run the ball all day on them yeah i this one is very tricky um i i didn't know what to do but my first instinct was actually to take denver but this line's really moved because all the sharps have hit them and one thing that really jumped out at me that i didn't mention last week uh after playing san francisco which is what happened with cincy last week they played san francisco teams the next week this season are 2 and 11 straight up i don't know why that might just be a fluke um but it could you i mentioned that to you and you said it's like well because they're getting beat up up front the week after they play san francisco because of the dominance

of both both lines except this this past week the seahawks beat the broncos it was or the huge they beat the texans Or the Hugh Texans. They beat the Texans, yeah. Texans, yeah. Yeah, so last week they defied that. The Cardinals got the other win earlier this season. We can stay away from this one. This just feels like a bit of a stay away,

but we actually could get this a plus three for Cincy, and that I don't mind. Oh, there's some threes floating around? Yeah, there's some threes. I don't mind that. I do think Cincy's the better team. Yeah, we'll put in the maybes for now. We have a big maybe list.

Yeah, we do. The next one, Jeff, is one I really like, and I'm sorry about it already. It's the Falcons at the 49ers. Oh, no. Falcons are plus nine and a half. Yeah, let me just make the case, because we just have to do this.

It's a few things shanahan has only covered 34 of the time as a favorite he's 4 15 and one against the spread as a home favorite and san francisco straight up is only 8 and 11 as a favorite uh their last 19 where they've been favored um everyone's dying to bet san francisco after this kiddle breakout game but San Francisco eight games this season under one score when you look even at just like the metrics like they're not even that far apart this is going to be less than a 10 point game

for sure you got to take it it's dead last in DVOA well DVOA maybe but in terms of like I don't know I don't think these two teams are that far apart in terms of like how good they actually are i think san francisco obviously is better and has a higher ceiling but i don't think this is going to be a blowout it's just not what shanahan does you want to hear a fun stat so let's hear it factor six and seven

they're but the point differential is minus 108 okay buffalo is seven and six with a plus 134 uh point differential yeah i mean atlanta's been lucky for sure nine and a half i'll put it in there dude we don't have much in here so if you like something man like it's got to be atlanta you got to take them here like they're it's not fun i don't think they're good but like yeah you got to do it it's just this is just the classic spot to fade shanahan agreed all right let's let's let's fade shanahan god gross um curious what you think about this one green bay at bal at Baltimore. We don't know Lamar's status exactly, but I think we're assuming it's going to be Tyler Huntley. Yeah, we can't wager.

I don't think we can wager on this game because I think Lamar has to play for them to be in the playoffs. And so I would just stay away unless we know Lamar's playing or not. That's my opinion of it. Yeah, so we're seeing it at five. If Lamar plays, it's probably a pick if Lamar plays would you guess yes yeah which I would take the Packers then but yeah I would too Tyler Huntley's covered both games he's played this season yeah cover last weekend covering at the Bears Baltimore's

so good in these moments too with adversity I just feel like they're like the worst team to go against when it's like oh it's Huntley and it's gonna be minus seven for the packers yeah that's why you stay away from this yeah so lee and ravens but we're passing this for now um yeah seahawks rams another one that's going to change uh we're seeing this at rams by four and a half this opened around seven um but now jalen ramsey's on the coveted list odo beckham's on the coveted list uh despite him saying that uh he didn't think covet wanted any part of him it's tough tough one for odell there do you want to play this one or i mean i don't know i would have loved seattle i would have loved seattle at seven me too four and a half feels a little rich doesn't

doesn't feel rich enough does it yeah i think i, it's also like, do we really trust Seattle's back after they played the Texans? Like, you know, I'm not sure. Don't they also, don't the Seahawks like, or they own the Rams in Seattle, I think. Yeah. I don't have a good read here with this number, to be honest. Four and a half is a terrible number in this spot. Seven, I think we're all over Seattle. Yeah. I think we got it. I don't know. good read here with this number, to be honest. Four and a half is a terrible number in this spot. Seven, I think we're all over Seattle. Yeah.

I think we got it. I don't know. All right. Let's pass on this. Well, this one is one I really like. Saints at Bucks. Saints or Bucks are favored by ten and a half. You can guess where I want to go here.

I hope you don't want to take the Saints. Of course I want to take the Saints. They've never lost to Tom Brady when he's with the Bucs. They're 3-0. This is a 10.5 point spread for the second matchup with a divisional team. There's no way. But this is a much different Saints team.

No Cameron Jordan and no quarterback. Well, you mentioned the quarterback games with Taysom Hill they always go under so they're he's five and one and to the under and six starts they've all gone under 46 points uh the line on this is the over under is 46 and a half by the way um this is gonna be a close game it's just the nature of how the games go with Taysom Hill if they're down 20 to nothing, yes, you're screwed. But if this game is like, you know, I feel like this is going to end up like 20 to 14

and somebody's going to sit on the ball at the end of it. That's just how this is going to go. The Saints are getting the public money and the public tickets to this game. Sometimes the public's right. And the line is not budging very much. I mean, so would you take Tampaa here is this just to stay away tampa has won and covered four straight games yeah they they cover at home a lot they're they're just i i think they're in this mode where

they're just gonna kick everyone's ass and they're tom brady's trying to trying to win the mvp award um sure but the saints had lost five in a row by two by two by 11 got blown up by the bills and then by 10 i mean they play close-ish games they also didn't have camara for a lot of those like camara's back armstead's back like they have the back they have the best rush defense Tampa though but not lately, they haven't historically yes, but like lately if you look at it, they just haven't what's the line?

10.5, getting the hook too divisional game second matchup like when I don't know, I think the Bucs are getting a ton of respect because they're great at home but I think this is just a good number like, I don't know. I think that the bucks are getting a ton of respect because they're great at home, but I think this is just a good number. Like I don't think the saints win. Let's put it in the,

in the maybes for now. Yeah. We're going to have a bunch of these, but I think that's worth it. They're like all, they're like all maybes. Well, here's one.

I don't think we're going to touch. That's the money in that game. The Vikings are favored by three and a half at Chicago, uh, Chicago 16 and four in their last 20 against many at home at home um and they're in prime time every week i but that doesn't mean we have to bet it we're not we're not we're not playing this game yeah laying on all right so i like it so we have three. Pittsburgh, Philly, Atlanta. And you really like Buffalo.

Right, so we have Buffalo. I'm going to put Buffalo in there, minus 11. So we have one spot left. So we talked about Indy on Saturday night. Jacksonville's out. Detroit is out because we're going to be at a better line. So we have Indy, Cincinnati, and Denver. Cincinnati plus three.

That one doesn't feel as great. And then New Orleans plus ten and a half. So Indy and New Orleans, those are the ones you liked. Which one do you like best? I mean, ten and a half I like for New Orleans. But, I mean, Indy, I don't know if I want to go against Belichick if we have to but I don't like that

we were very much oh god so we have Pittsburgh plus 2 Philly minus 6 Atlanta plus 9.5 Buffalo minus 11 and New Orleans plus ten and a half

I feel like I I made too much of an imprint on you this week I'm scared I feel like these are these are up to me a little bit I really but I didn't like it I didn't like anything this week besides Buffalo like in Philly like I just there's not a lot to like this week. Yeah. Pittsburgh makes sense. Atlanta makes sense. New Orleans makes sense. It's not a fun play, but it makes sense.

Like, can't you just see that? It's like, oh, it's the fourth quarter. They're up by three. I remember I sent you that text of the tweet of that guy who's like fourth place at Super Contest and just was all like public road favorites he took last week. Yep. Like that's that type of season yep but we're taking public we're taking public road favorite new orland road dog in new orleans oh god oh i mean we could take something else but i don't know no i don't know what's better than that if it was 10 even i would i wouldn't be that intrigued to 10 and a half like come on it's not it's this is the right call 10 and a half is a lot of points yeah it is all right guys well it looks like we just like went to battle like

we're both like leaning back like oh god happened? I mean, it's just not. Dude, it's been an ugly year, buddy, for the NFL. It has. Well, we're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Please rate, review, subscribe. Dude, are we at a funeral? Like, let's be, like, come on. Let's recap our five. Let's be excited.

I did it already. I did Steelers plus two, Philly minus six, Atlanta plus nine and a half, Buffalo minus 11, New Orleans plus 10 and a half. Five and O. Let's go.

We haven't had one yet. We've had more one and fives, or O and fives. We had five and Os. It's always the way it is. Remember last year, we finished strong. I'm hoping to finish strong again this year.

So we'll see. We got this. We got this. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. We'll be back on Monday. We got this. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. We'll be back on Monday. We'll start previewing bowl games,

starting with college basketball. And yeah, just let us know if you're tailing us, fading us, whatever you're doing. Please let me know at Jeff Schwartz.

Please rate, review, subscribe as usual, powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Talk to you guys Monday. Have a great weekend, everybody.