Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Divisional Round Matchups and Picks

Episode Date: January 23, 2024

Geoff and Matt are back to check in on coaching hirings and firings, plus preview the Divisional Round Matchups this weekend and share their favorite props and picks.Be sure to follow the podcast for new episodes twice a week, and leave a rating, comment, or tweet @GeoffSchwartz to share what you think!!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday january 19th i'm jeff schwarzenegger short to smart you were live to preview the divisional round the best weekend of national football league action four games over two days we'll be back on fridays with vaulted near the super bowl so stay tuned for that they've been a great partner for us we'll have something big for you guys. Remember, $5,000 you can win. Day of the big game. We'll have that for you. Super Bowl week. Matt, we had a fun format last week.

We took six wagers. We gave ourselves a confidence of one to six on those. And I did better than you. But we'll do the same exact format this week um and for the four games you know it's gambling man you know maybe don't do parlays and teasers you know maybe not i don't know yeah i got a little cute jeff uh i i was i was reluctant to go out there and just like make the plays let's just bet the games against the spread i felt like i had to bring a little bit more to the table.

And this is why you should never bet teasers. You should never make parlays. And these prop markets are so variant all over the place. Having said that, I have a parlay and a prop in my picks this week. But I really, I have some ground to make up in this format. And I am very confident that this week I'm going to be good. You didn't take the Bills?

Famous last year. Bills money line? You got a straight money line, Matt? Hey, we're going to have to wait until later in the show. I know what you're going to be on. I'm not honest. I have two props in that game, by the way. But we'll get to those games in a few minutes.

I know you want to talk about what's been sitting the X streets ablaze the last 24 hours. We'll talk about coaching searches and some other things. But you want to start with something near and dear to your heart, the Washington Commanders. I guess. I mean, we could start there. I was going to give everyone a break and save it for later.

But there's been this great – beef is the lame word but sort of like a revisionist history happening between jay gruden the former coach of the now commanders and the once legendary robert griffin iii um pretty curious how neither of them really ever i mean rg3 got another shot or two uh in some other teams jay gruden never did jay gruden has never coached the nfl again even as an ofc which is pretty crazy um but they've been going back and forth and basically blaming each other for um i don't know everything and it's i i mean just check it out i mean it started with with jay gruden tweeting something about like jalen hurts not getting any help and rg3 being like bro really and then they just went back and forth and it's

turned really shitty and uh yeah i guess i mean it's is this interesting to you or is this not interesting to you i mean this is obviously to hank and i it's amazing the best part about this is both of them are right and both of them are wrong. I went and looked up RJ3's career today. Again, I was very injured, so it's not like I can say someone else was injured. But to blame Jay Gruden when you got hurt in 2012, you were benched in 2013, and then you got hurt in 2014,

and then you got hurt in 2015, and then Cousins obviously took your job. Then look at Jay Gruden. It's not like he did a lot of winning as a coach at Washington either. They both just didn't do their jobs. One was injured. One wasn't as good as we thought. And the other coach wasn't very good.

They both stunk at what they did. And they're both arguing about how badly one of them stunk. You were worse than I was. RG3 just – it's a lot. It's a lot. I mean, he had Deion taking the cowboy's job like what are we doing you can't believe the things that are it's just a lot of i can't do it man i can't say things just to create controversy because i want to be the loudest voice in the room i can't do it matt

i can't bring myself to do it i just i can't And that's what RG3 does a lot of times. Like, this was dumb. This is a dumb fight for no reason other than for clout, right, to get clicks, to get people to hear a podcast, which maybe I'm dumb. Maybe I should be doing this, Matt, making outlandish statements to people coming and listening to this podcast. I just can't do it. So we're not going to do it here.

You know, he mentioned the Dallas Cowboys as a spot for deon sanders the cowboys are keeping mike mccarthy uh we're waiting ward on eagles coach nick sirianni uh we know that mayo's been hired by the patriots also apparently he's woke now uh that was a thing that came out woke woke mayo uh in new england because he said something about um uh racism and uh that was an incredible headline. So we're making our way in the coaching cycle. I'll say this about the Cowboys, Matt. I wonder how you feel about this.

So when you fire a coach, the point of the firing is to hire someone better, right? That's the point of it. Now, there are times, obviously, Belichick sort of ran its course. Pete Carroll ran its course. You're not really looking for better. You're looking for different, right?

But if you're the Cowboys, if you're firing Mike McCarthy, you're looking for better. Matt, I ask you this question. Who is better to hire right now that will take that job? People say, oh, Jim Harbaugh. Does he want to work for Jerry Jones? Bill Belichick. Does he want to work for Jerry Jones? The answer is probably nobody. And, excuse me, McCarthy coaches the offensive side of the ball. The offense is fine. Like, you're not going to fire a coach who coaches

one side of the ball, and that side of the ball does their job. Of course, the Cowboys have more problems than just Mike McCarthy. I didn't say it starts from the top, right? Permeates itself down. But the fact is, I understand why they're keeping him. Nick Sirianni, why are you keeping Nick Sirianni? He didn't do anything. He doesn't coach the offense. He doesn't coach the defense. He just yells immature things to Chiefs fans as he walks off the field.

You know, so those are two different. Like McCarthy, I understand, okay, look, man, you've won 36 games, excuse me, the last two years, and your offense is good. We're going to keep you. Nick Sirianni, there's no reason to keep Nick Sirianni other than he went to Super Bowl last season. I mean, that's a pretty good reason, honestly. And I think the thing with – I think people are so surprised about McCarthy,

with i think people are so surprised about mccarthy but this is again this is i mean there's a lot of like takey things i could say here but i think i'm gonna choose to be a little bit more nuanced and i think that the problem with dallas is they're just not as good as people thought and they their team they have these like very like flashy names and like flashy they can they can beat up on teams that are worse than them because they do have some talent but they're kind of like thin and they're a team of like Duran Blans and Trayvon Diggs where it's like when it's going it's going right like that is the same way it's like when Dak is playing the front runners they're front runners and a lot of teams are and i that's something that i've sort of like looked at across like the dolphins are like there's there's other philly seems to be like there's these teams like when it's good it's good and i

think that mccarthy mccarthy's like arguably like he's done a fine job he's a high floor guy and the cowboys like to their credit i guess are seem to be like pretty loyal to their coaches right like these coaches have lasted there for jason garrett wade phillips like i don't think that he you know our friend nick wright made a point where he was like if nick sirianni got fired would any other team hire him to be their head coach i heard him say and i kind of just seem i just. That's interesting. I'm not sure I agree with that, but I think McCarthy you would probably say no too,

and not because I just think your upside is capped. And I think with Dallas, their self-scout is like, we're good. We're awesome. We don't need Bill Belichick. We're a good enough team that we can win the Super Bowl. They were just not. And until they do a couple things, like Dak just isn't as good as people think they still don't

have a second receiver after lamb like lamb is not going to be able to produce like that every year and their defense is like these big splash guys and then a bunch of just like yeah i don't know they're just kind of fine so i don't think it's mccarthy's. I do think they could probably find better. And I don't know. I think I'm not as surprised that they kept him, but go ahead, finish up with McCarthy. And then I want to do serious. I mean, the, the, the pushback I have is that ultimately it is his fault because he's in charge of the team. So like, you know, he, yeah, like it, it, it is his fault. The team's sort of no-showing. That's his fault.

Now, again, what are the reasons for that was worth exploring, right? Is Dak Prescott just not that guy? Look, Matt, we saw in the wildcard round, for the most part, the more dynamic quarterback won the game. The one exception was Jared Goff beat Stafford, and the lines, I think, are just better. But Jordan Love looked – You're saying Baker is better than Jalen Hurts?

That's a different – no, that's a different – there obviously are caveats to this, but he actually looked better. He looked better though, didn't he? Than Jalen Hurts did. Now that the Eagles are just, we'll talk about the Eagles in a second. I said for the most part,

for the most part, not all the time. But it's, it's hard to look at Dak Prescott against Jordan Love and say that he was as dynamic as Jordan Love was in that game. Jordan Love had never played a playoff game before. This is a road playoff game, Matt. He looked amazing.

You know who didn't look very good was Dak Prescott. You got to figure out, if you're the Cowboys, why your quarterback, who has been in this spot before, who is at home, did not look as good as the new up-and-coming quarterback for the team that was on the road that is the thing you have to figure out and maybe mike mccarthy is the guy to figure that out we don't know but it might just be this is what dac is and you're not going to a super bowl with dac prescott as as your quarterback well i think dallas is sort of like again like cd lamb's good enough for them

to and and dac is good enough for them to have won whatever 11 games or whatever it was but in the playoffs you have to be able to do more than like succeed in one way on offense and we saw that with the dolphins like we're we we will probably see that more and more as the playoffs go on. That's to the Chiefs' credit. They haven't had that thing this year, and they're figuring out what it is. But Dak, they couldn't run the ball, right? The Tony Pollard thing just didn't work. They didn't have a second back.

Pollard had a bad year. They didn't have a second receiver. And Dak is one of those guys who's like as good as the parts around him he's not going to like lift you beyond that and I think which is not great and that's why I think McCarthy too it's like McCarthy's going to get you to like a consistent good spot but he's not going to sort of like notch you up that level the way like I don't know what Sean mcveigh does that kyle shanahan does like and i think dallas like dallas could get anyone they wanted they should if they were to just sort of like tee somebody up and find the next like i don't know mike mcdaniel out there

like that might be ben johnson that might be somebody else like and just say hey like just make like superbowl is the standard and i I think by saying that this season was okay, they've already punted next season to me. They don't have the cap room anyway to go make a big splash. But to me, as a Commanders fan, great. Dallas will be good. They'll be solid. But they'll probably be looking for a new coach in a year.

And they're not winning the Super Bowl with this group. They're just not. Yeah. and they're not winning the Super Bowl with this group. They're just not. Yeah. I just don't think you can have a situation where your quarterback is just not good enough to – you pay him all that money, you need something more, right?

You need a little bit more, Matt, in this situation. And getting to Jalen Hurts now and the Eagles, is it fair to have a little bit of the same take? Now, last year was the Eagles were obviously, it was an incredible season, right? This year, things fell down quickly. We're 10-1 and then obviously lost last weekend. Is it fair to say that Nick Cerrone I don't think is a good coach.

We'll get to him in a second. But is Jalen Hurts – do you have the same comfortability with Jalen Hurts being the guy to lead a team when things aren't perfect that you had last season? to lead a team when things aren't perfect than you had last season. Like, I don't – like, think about the – I know the Chiefs defense is better, but if Jalen Hurts had the Chiefs wide receiving core, does he have the Patrick Mahomes season?

Does he have as good of a year as Patrick Mahomes had? Like, I just – I know that's setting a weird bar, but I came away thinking to myself like maybe hertz is not the guy who is like that talent to make everyone around him better to win playoff football games i think jalen hertz was injured i honestly think that it's it's not that complicated and he was banged up all season and the later the season went the colder it got the more banged up he got the more banged up his receivers got he got worse and they were another team that like play call or not like if it was sirianni's fault or not like they weren't running the ball well um and you know that in that playoff game like no aj brown goddard left he was injured uh you know the

devontae smith had a good game but it's clear that he wasn't 100 because he's he'd been out the last couple weeks like i don't think that this season was like this big referendum on jalen hurts i actually don't think it was a big referendum on sirianni either i think that they had a bad old defense that was full of these overrated Georgia players that everyone was so excited about like they're a bunch of like young guys rookies and a and a you know a problem at defensive coordinator like who fires their defensive coordinator when you're 10 and 1 like there was something clearly wrong there and I think that they just need a little bit more beef on that side of the ball and I kept saying this on this show all year like teams that lose the

Super Bowl do not tend to just bounce back and just be awesome and they still were pretty good they they they were a couple of of really bad sloppy losses away from winning the division and from even having home field and they went through that brutal stretch of what five or six awesome teams got their asses kicked and i just I think that we in the context of like history and the way that the league tends to work they had a good season and I don't think that firing sirianni talk about who's going to be better like if you can get Bill Belichick like okay but I just I don't know I feel like I feel like they're closer than we think to uh to being that team and I don't think Jalen hurts is I my opinion of him hasn't

changed he's awesome like when he was healthy that team was absolutely incredible and he was money in clutch situations in a way that a lot of these good quarterbacks aren't yeah um that's that's the obviously the other side to sort of my take um on that is it's just he's just hurt and it is sirianni though man it's so immature yelling at chiefs fans like that like what are we what are we doing buddy like why so immature matt that that worries me right you don't see other coaches doing that um you mentioned bill belichick atlanta seems like a home for him, which is a weird – I don't know, man. Do you see Belichick and Atlanta in a hoodie on the sideline at the Georgia Domes?

I don't know the Georgia Dome anymore, but they need a quarterback. Do you trust Bill Belichick? He'll bring in Josh McDaniel, obviously, but if they draft Bo Nix, is he the coach to guide him? No. I mean, do you think this is really happening like i know that it's it seems to be a little further down the line but i'm i'm genuinely curious like it just doesn't feel like the right fit to me he's on second interview isn't he they said yeah i the only the only the only thing i

can think is that his agent's using this to drum up interest and it's curious that he hasn't interviewed anywhere else to me like the fact that there are these teams i mean the panthers are a no but then you look around the rest of the league and i know you and barnwell talked about this so i you know take take it away whenever but like there are these other teams like washington had no, like the Chargers seem to have no interest, you know, the Panthers I mentioned. Like it doesn't seem like there's a lot of people that are just clamoring for Belichick. And the Titans, like that, you know,

that would seem kind of weird to mix variable with Belichick. But like, do you feel like Atlanta's kind of his only option? Like, is that where we are? Sounds like it, right? I mean, the Chargers would have interviewed him already, right, if they wanted him, it feels like. Yeah, because here's the thing, too, is we talked about this for a while when I met.

Belichick, in my opinion, cannot choose the players. And smart general managers will say, you know what, man? Like, you can come here, but you can't choose the players. And Atlanta and Arthur Blank will give him the opportunity to choose the players. That, I think, is the reason why other teams have not called. Yeah, that's probably it. I don't think it's going to work. I think that it's a strange personnel fit.

But I don't know, man. How do you turn down Bill Belichick? And I think that it's a strange personnel fit. But I don't know, man. How do you turn down Bill Belichick? And I think that it'll be super interesting. But it's surprising. I think Vrabel is the one I'm really curious about. Because it seems like when you look around the league, like where's he going to fit? And that was somebody, when we were talking about Dallas,

like who can you get that's better? Like I think Vrabel would be better. And and i think bravo could attract like a really high quality offensive guy um but i it just doesn't seem like he's an obvious fit anywhere at this point and that's yeah that's super surprising to me i have to tell you what man his um his last two years, do you know how many games he won his last two years at Tennessee? This year it was, what, six? Last year it was probably, I don't know, under 13. He won 13 games.

Maybe that sticks out as like, you know, if we don't have a quarterback, we're not going to win. I don't know. He went 9-7, 9-7, 11-5, 12-5. Pretty good four-year run, you know. Yeah. Seattle feels like – Ryan Tannehill.

Seattle feels like – and Mariota. Seattle feels like that might be the spot for him is my guess. But we'll have more coaching carousel moving forward, Matt. Let's get to the four games this weekend. And as we did last week, we'll go over the games we're going to give you the picks that we might consider and the end of the show we're going to rank the picks six five four three two one on a confidence scale we give you six picks it can be anything you want from these games um just a reminder last week i had 14 of 21 points matt had 9 of 21 points i mean is what it is so let's get uh let's get to it matt uh first game what are we thinking yeah so let's go in

order here uh the first game because the texans have to be first. They're playing Baltimore. The Ravens are nine or nine-and-a-half point favorites. All week, I want to get the exact. It's nine-and-a-half most plays now. Man, this is such a tricky one for me. What do you think? All right. So, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have to buck a lot of trends to cover this game, right, Matt?

Lamar Jackson, and this is all credit to Action Network, by the way. Evan Abrams puts these together. They're fantastic. If you don't unpay, go to Action Network. They don't pay me anymore. But Matt and I used to work there. They're great. Go look at their app.

They have some great nuggets on this. Lamar Jackson, 1-8 against the spread of the 7.5-point favorite or more. What, I believe it's 1-6 as like a 10-point favorite. I mean, these numbers just aren't great for him. 1-3 against the spread in the playoffs. He's lost twice as a 10-point favorite in the playoffs, the most ever in NFL history. He just hasn't played as well in these games, Matt.

Only four games, only four playoff games. He completes 10% less passes, less touchdowns, more interceptions, passer rating lower. He has not performed well in these games. Does that worry you wager on this game? Yes and no. So there are a couple things that really yes you're right and a lot a lot of people the sharps all love the texans for those reasons right like um that you always wanted back baltimore as a small home favorite or as a dog or but never in this spot where they're laying a lot of points

the thing with houston is there is a substantial difference in talent between these two teams and houston uh since they played baltimore in week one since then they played one two playoff teams they played the Browns twice once in the playoffs obviously in the Bucks yeah um where they put up that crazy game so they haven't seen a level of uh offense or defense really like this uh you know since apart from the Browns so this is a huge step up in competition it's outside outside Baltimore with extended rest, which again, like the trends say that they're not great with extended rest.

Baltimore is going to come out absolutely firing. They're an incredible first half team. So potentially they're going to be, you know, they're going to potentially be getting after Stroud in maybe some weather right away um i just think that baltimore i think it's you know spoiler alert for the for the san francisco game like i think one of these big favorites is going to just absolutely open this open the game up and make it boring um there is there tends to be at least one last year there were two in the divisional rounds

the eagles destroyed Giants that this game kind of has that feel to me of a team that's like man what a popular trendy dog like that that made it this far like can you believe that they're in this round and then they play like you know the best team in their conference and get their asses kicked like I could see that happening I have I have that for the Niners game. That's what I have. Yeah, I mean, me too. But I could really see Baltimore just absolutely running away with this. Yeah.

There are not a lot of props I like in this game, buddy. It's hard to find them. I like – I just – to me, the wager I'm leaning towards is the under 43.5 because of the wind and the weather. It's going to be windy. It's going to be cold. You have a dome team going outside in the Texas. You have a Baltimore team, as you mentioned. It typically starts fast and can sort of peter off afterwards.

So I think I would actually lean my as my wager for the game for those reasons i think maybe texans plus nine and a half or the under 43 and a half yeah those are smart plays um it just by the way mark andrews was just ruled out a lot of people thought that he was gonna play but the line actually didn't move in the ravens favor um so yeah i'm a little undecided on this one um but i think yeah we'll get we'll get to that i'm gonna i'm gonna bet every side this week and throw in i think uh two others two other angles to fill out my six but oh okay this is i think probably the hardest one for me to come to a decision on um but gonna be a really good game i hope unless the ravens just absolutely open it up and

as you said buck the trends um the later game saturday uh starting at 8 30 eastern is uh green bay at san francisco it looks like we have the same read on this one uh this line is also nine and a half yeah uh and yeah go ahead so i'll tell you right now, my six-point wager of the week will be Niners over 30.5 points in this game, Matt. You know, the Packers' defense is not good. We've talked about this at length. They played well early against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have a very predictable offense at times.

And guess what? They still ended up allowing over 30 points. I hit that Cowboys team total, which I didn't think I'd get to. Defensively, Packers are 23rd in average EPA allowed on pass, 30 points like we i hit that cowboys team total um which i didn't think i'd get to defensively packs are 23rd and average epa allowed on pass average a 23rd average epa allowed per rush they don't blitz a lot kind of just sit back in coverage um and that to me is not good against the 49ers um you've arrested 49ers team who is healthy and we've seen throughout the season matt when they're rested and healthy and the weather is good and everything's – they score a ton of points.

A ton of points. And I also think the Packers might score with them for a little bit because the Niners' run defense is not great. So to me, I have the Niners over 30.5. I sort of like Aaron Jones jones possibly over 16 and a half rushing attempts because the niners defense i think is ranked 26th epa against the rush uh not great against the rush i'm gonna pull that exact number up right now for you just to make sure i have the right number so they're not yeah 26 so they don't stop the run very well matt the reason you get out of running

the football is because you get behind you try to catch up by passing the football so that's where i'm looking at this game um niners over 30 and a half points and maybe like an aaron jones over i think that's about 16 and a half uh rushing attempts i look at uh point total is as a as an angle um this green bay team i think this is going to be a boat race. And that goes against the Kyle Shanahan trends in the past. It actually doesn't. 4-0 in the playoffs at home, straight up against the spread.

Yeah. And also this year, they lead the league in games won by more than 10 points. It's a little with 11. So this is not unfamiliar territory for them and this is like this is just like a classic like don't bet on the packers after they absolutely dominated a really good matchup for them last week like remember everyone wanted to take dallas because everyone was so worried about joe berry's defense and now they're everyone's like you know i think they can hang with san francisco like san francisco a little bit different of a rushing attack and

that's unfortunately for the packers that's their weak point they're 28th in the league in rush defense christian mccaffrey is going to go bananas and and i think this is going to be one of those where like jordan love when they were aggressive and they were able to start the game throwing and get a turnover or two and get Dallas on their heels. Then I think they were Dallas was like really caught by surprise. San Francisco is not. That's going to be the opposite. San Francisco is going to come out fire. And then that Packers offensive line is really going to get tested in a way that they didn't last week.

So I think that I think that nine and a half if you can still get it i am sure by game day this will get to 10. i think people are sort of i i just think that that's how this is going to play out um so yeah give me give me the the niners spread here i think the team total over makes a lot of sense i think the total over um like the the actual game total it's 50 and a half. I think this is going to be a super high-scoring game. And the Packers aren't, you know, even if they're down by 20 points at halftime,

like they're not going to give up. And they'll be able to score, especially like they have, you know, obviously a good offense. So I feel pretty confident that this is going to be a good weekend for San Francisco. I'm with you there. So we are in agreement with sort of how this game is going to go. I wonder if we're in agreement with how the next game is going to be a good weekend for San Francisco. I'm with you there. So we are in agreement with sort of how this game is going to go. I wonder if we're in agreement with how the next game is going to go.

Yeah, this has been fun. A lot of different reads on this game. So the Bucs-Lions game in Detroit, it's been around – it's been six and a half kind of all week. Yeah. And it touched seven briefly and today it seems like a lot of the money just started pouring in on the lions um yeah but a lot of the sharps earlier in the week were on the bucks so where where do you stand here uh so pretty interesting interesting game um because you have two quarterbacks that like

i just don't know if we trust them right in this in this moment um so like i think i would take bucks because to cover because the lines pass the offensive mat is atrocious um the lines have allowed now uh four straight games where wide receivers have had 140 yards plus four straight games games. Justin Jefferson, 141. CeeDee Lamb, 227. Jefferson again, 192. Puka Nakua, 181. That's insane, man.

Yes. That's crazy. Their pass defense is 28th in EPA. They're not very good on defense. I like Mike Evans. Oh, it's at 72.5 now, his receiving number. I got it 68.5 earlier this week, so I got a good number, but I got to play what I can Mike Evans. Oh, it's at 72.5. Now his receiving number. I got it 68 and a half earlier this week. So I got a good number,

but I got to play what I can play now. It's also worth noting the other side that the Buccaneers have allowed the second most yards to slot receivers in the national football league. I guess there was the most yards in the slot. Excuse me. The third most yards. I'm going to write St. Brown.

To me, this is an up. Oh, I think this is over game man like I took almond rice St Brown over seven and a half receptions I took the Mike Evans number I will give you the Mike Evans number I see today which is 72 and a half um but this feels like a high scoring track meet and if that's if that is the case I do like the B bucks to cover this game yeah i have this i mean i have the same read um the lions were out gained by the rams last week in their building and you know they the bucks offense like the bucks it's a pretty simple formula on offense just get just sling it man like it seems like they've

really they they looked awesome last week i know the eagles were bad um i think too you know something about this game that i think people kind of don't totally take into account is that what the lions are still kind of a new team to this kind of game. The Bucs aren't. The Bucs are in the playoffs every year. There's so many guys, especially on the defense, who have won a Super Bowl, who were Tom Brady's teammate. Like, this moment is not going to be too big for them. Right.

And I think that there is going to be a time in this playoffs where the Lions, and it almost happened last week where you know the rams the rams kept that game super close um where there's going to be a moment where detroit gets nervous and we i actually wanted to bring this up like you and i were texting at the beginning of the game and you said something like this is why i took detroit like they got out to that early lead and i was like just wait like the lions are going to get tight and there's you know the future coach of the commander's ben johnson like he's a young offensive coordinator like he's gonna have to do the kyle shanahan thing of like if you get a lead like icing the game playing with the clock like that takes just a little bit more savviness and

the lions defense like aaron glenn probably the future coach of i don't know maybe the titans yeah yeah that defense has just gotten absolutely trashed by some really some some really bad quarterbacks like you mentioned the receivers how about the fact that the justin jefferson games where nick mullen starts like this like baker should have a really nice week here and they're they have they're playing with house money no one's believing in them i'm riding high on the bucks uh it scares me a little that all of that everyone seems to have coalesced around the lions after sort of being split i haven't but i i think yeah i think the bucks are going to cover this game and cover a lot of ground in the air like you mentioned yeah jared goff did not make like that stupid mistake that he almost did he threw that

ball backwards that one time but it's just the game we get the stupid Jared Goff mistake in this moment you're kind of your point about you know where you might see some some advantages take time but I just think six and a half is too many points when you have a team like the Bucs that can throw the ball and a team like the Lions that can't bypass defense. Do you have the Bucs winning this game? I don't know. I don't think so. I don't think I have the stones to make that call

because I feel like Detroit might just be that team. And if they are to make it through their two home games and then go to San Francisco, I feel like that's when they could be really – that'll be super interesting. I think I have the Lions winning, and I think I have the three favorites winning to this point. Do you?

Yes. I think that the big upset could be the Texans if there's a big upset this weekend but i don't i'm not putting money on that interesting yeah i keep i want to make enough for our picks but i do really want to consider one money line play i don't think it's going to be baltimore i think they're just too aware that it could be them um but you know there is one other game coming up where i have a feeling you're probably going to like the team that is not the favorites that would be the kansas city chiefs who jeff i see a three out there uh the bills are laying three points to the kansas city chiefs

mahomes has to go on the road uh i think that's the first time he's going to have to do that at this level of the playoffs. This is Buffalo's probably biggest game since Jim Kelly was there, I think. I think this is a huge, huge spot for them. And everybody likes Buffalo. What could go wrong, Jeff? So you know where I will be Sunday night. Have you heard, Matt? I will be at this game in Buffalo.

Wow. Wow. Yeah. So my wife's cousin's husband, I don't know what the name for that person related to me is. His name is Dave. Big Bills fan. They come over every Sunday to watch football.

He's a police officer. He gets off his shift typically at 2 o'clock, comes over to the house. So he keeps there Monday. The Bills beat the Steelers. And he goes, I'm booking a flight. I'm going to the game. Bills fans view this game as their Super Bowl. Like they view this as the Super Bowl.

That terribly concerns me if you're picking the Bills in this game. It's not the Superbowl. It's the vision around and you have a team coming in who doesn't give a shit. It's your, it's your Superbowl at all for them. It's another game. I saw Patrick Mahomes be like, say like, no, we're just not, it's not a game for us. It's another game to climb in the mountaintop. We're not trying to eliminate teams.

We're just trying to win games. It's all, it's all that we're doing. Um, so I'm going, so my wife was like, you're going with Dave. And I was like, okay. And I'm glad. So I just took the picture right now. Buffalo tweeted out, I did not have waterproof pants. Okay.

And it's not supposed to snow on Sunday, but the Bills just tweeted out a picture of the stadium saying they're making progress in clearing the snow. I'm not a snow person, but there's a lot of freaking snow left on these seats. So I'm glad I got some waterproof pants and some snow boots to bring with me because, yeah, there's still snow. It's not melting anytime soon. I bought good seats. I bought seats on the Bills sideline.

So Chiefs fan, Bill sideline. Should be a ton of fun. Yeah, we'll see. I mean, I've been to colder games. Chiefs Patriots in 2018 was colder. They had a championship game. So I'm in enemy territory. Excited to see this atmosphere.

But Matt, I'm kind of also excited to see the Chiefs win this game and sort of crush the Bill's hopes the Chiefs defense is really good guys it's really good um and and their offense it it's just it's I keep saying this man it's like so close to being there but they played well against the Dolphins um have you seen the injury report for Buffalo they don't have any starters left in the secondary. Their linebackers are decimated. They're down

at least five guys, six guys, plus two or three more that are questionable. I don't know how they stopped Kansas City unless the Chiefs just drop every pass. The Holmes, it was negative 30 last weekend. It's possible. It was negative 30 last weekend, Matt.

And the Holmes looked like nothing was bothering them. Like they're in playoff mode. This is when their season starts. Biggest game in Bill's history in 40 years, dude. They're at home against the Chiefs. You mentioned, I see everyone picking it. I've seen some absurd things, Matt. Like I saw someone that ranked Mahomes

the seventh best quarterback left in the playoffs. What? Everyone's picking their bills in this game. I'm not wagering on the Chiefs. What I'm doing is wagering the injuries. I like Kelsey over five and a half receptions in this game. Remember, he had, I think, seven last week and dropped three passes that went right through his hands, and he was open the entire game.

And Pacheco over 63 and a half rushing yards. They have to run the football in this atmosphere, and without the linebacker in the secondary, I mean, if he breaks one run, man, they don't want to tackle him. The Bills are playing A.J. Klein in that game. He did not play a snap for them all season. So I like the Chiefs to win but i'm gonna take those two uh those two wagers um how do you how do you how do you like this game

yeah i think um i i just i don't have like a really like smart take on this other than it just feels like the bills are riding way too high and we do this every year with them where it's like watch out buffalo and you look at their last couple games and it's like yes they beat kansas city it was a crazy game that obviously the refs had pretty big impact on that one uh they blew out dallas which matters way less yeah they barely beat the chargers and the patriots and the dolphins and then you know they smoked mason rudolph at home in the playoffs like that's what they do they beat up on on bad quarterbacks and by the way like that game you know that game

could have gone a lot of different ways there's a ton of turnover luck um so congrats to buffalo i just like the case the case you make for Buffalo is basically just that the Kansas city offense won't get it together. That's a hard thing to bet on. You mentioned last week, like, you know, I,

I expected the Eagles to be a team that was able to just turn it on in the playoffs because they have the infrastructure. They had the quarterback that they would just be able to overcome a team like Tampa. The chiefs actually are that team, right? Like the chiefs actually seem to fix something rishi rice i bet on his under as one of my uh is my number five pick last week a big bet and he blew through that like in the first quarter like he looked amazing and you know kelsey yeah kelson's clearly not right with kelsey but it's

like i'm just gonna assume that he's probably gonna get it together in this one and so i just especially with the three that i'm seeing right now i you have to squeeze on kansas city uh getting three points even if they end up losing this game it's going to you know it's going to be a weird game something crazy is going to happen and how about how about this is a play jeff how about for plus000, this game goes to overtime, and this is the first overtime game where the Josh Allen rule of 13 seconds, he gets a chance to respond. That actually happens in this. I feel like there's a chance.

It just feels like that could be a thing. So if you want to have a little fun and put a dollar on that, that could be a nice way to end your weekend. So what's funny is my sports book i have to use an offshore we've talked about this at times um it's still two and a half and we go to alternate lines it skips the three it won't it won't let you take three um yeah it's it's it's weird right it won't let you do three it lets you do Chiefs by three and a half or Chiefs getting three and a half. It won't let you do by three. I think it might go to three at some point.

I'm with you a lot. I mean, it has to be a Josh Allen is a freak show game, right? Which he can certainly do. Remember, they should have lost this game earlier in the season. Let's see it. If Hedaris Tony was onside, they'd lose that game. Yeah, Josh Allen was not good in that game also worth pointing out um in the six for the six winning teams last weekend do you know how many turnovers were committed by the six winning teams last

weekend it's actually shocked you this number no one, and it was Clyde Edwards' Hilaire fumble like a minute left in the game. So we're due for some turnovers this weekend. We're due some – and it feels like Josh Allen YOLOing is certainly going to be turnover worthy. All right, Matt. I have written down what I think I'm doing for my wagers. What – have you written down your wagers?

So let's go from six. Remember how we're doing this. We have a group of wagers. We're going to give confidence. Six, five, four, three, two, one, add it up at the end. My sixth play, my number one play, Niners over 30 and a half points.

What is your number one play for this weekend? My number one play, I'm going to change what i had planned my number one play is going to be baker mayfield over 259 and a half yards i like that one right i like it i everyone's picking the receivers right like you you like evans our friend stucky at action network really likes godwin um i just i'm going to take Baker and just say that he's going to be airing this thing out. So 259.5 is my number there. My number five, I'll just go with my next one, is Evans over 70.5. So I'm right there with you on a lot of yards.

All right, so I'm not going to make up ground. Last weekend, you remember, he would have had that if he just had dropped that pass. I don't see him dropping a pass like that against the Lions. Yeah, fair enough. I'll take San Francisco, lay on the points, 9.5 as my number five. I feel very comfortable in that being. I have too many overs I like in this weekend. So let's go with the under in Baltimore and Houston.

Under 43.5 is my next one i'll take uh i'll take casey plus three for number four i love it i love it i love it i love it um all right now so i got one two three games what game am I missing? Oh, the Chiefs game. Let's go with Kelsey over five and a half receptions. It's a little juiced, though, but it's juiced to 140, but I know what else to do. I can look for alternate reception number, I guess, but that's what I have.

Okay, I've got the rest of mine. I've got it. All right, so we're on number three. I'll take the rest of mine. I've got it. All right. So we're on number three. I'll take Tampa plus six and a half is my third. Okay. Or my number three confidence. One, two, three.

Okay. I'll do Pacheco over 63 and a half yards rushing. For my number two. Okay. I'll take, i'll take i'll take uh for number two i'm gonna take a parlay of baltimore and san francisco first half money line um i think they both get out to a hot start that is juiced they're both like if you parlay them it's like minus 125 so i think that's in range um my last one tampa bay plus six and a half a one pointer and i'll take i'll take baltimore land the nine and a half for my one okay we have we have we each have six we covered all four games so you rewind this if you want to want to get our picks uh our picks

in um any any any parent corner any marriage corner we're stealing obviously the bit from how's the baby doing buddy it's been a while i haven't asked you in a couple months baby's good man yeah i mean so we're at a point now where um somebody told me hit your life the well let's not go that far i think think that, no, I don't. The thing that it really helps when your baby starts to give you some feedback. That's something somebody said to me the other day. When you're just dealing with this basically wild animal for the first couple months, you're like, I don't know, does this person even know who i am and now all of a sudden he's starting to like laugh and smile and like when i see him in the after a nap and i like hold

him right up to my face he's like that's not like that was a game changer um last night i got the most sleep i've gotten since october 30th and I woke up today and I was like, oh, right. Like, this is who I am. Like, I was like, not miserable. Like I got like an actual, like seven hour chunk of sleep and I felt so like normal. And that was amazing. So, um, yeah, this, this sleep thing, it's like, once we can cross that, we're, uh, we're going to be, we're going to be in a different spot but yeah I mean it's it's as hard as people say I definitely feel like I really just have a lot of respect for every parent for forever and we haven't had like a really tough time like we've blessed like a really healthy child and like you know no like major

bad things to happen in life but yeah it's been it's been good man how's how's being a dog dad it's good but i had an email today that my daughter's talking too much in school so that's great i'll have to have that talk when we get home um yeah we're still she's uh talking to her friends had to move her or her line order spot talking. She's doing stick-on nails in class? They're not from us. I don't know who... She didn't bring stick-on nails for me, for my house. So... She has my

talkative genes. She's very chatty. She won the Chatterbox Award one year in kindergarten, I think. The dog is fine. He just... So he... We need a crate for him when we're out of the house. He's a maniac. Our first crate we got was like a nice little furniture crate.

Like it looked good. And just, he just ripped a bar off of it. Like third night he's there. And so we ordered this, like this crate impact crate. It's from the company impact crates. It's like,

it's a lot of money, but every review is like, this is a perfect crate for a dog with a little bit of anxiety in his crate. He can't eat anything. He can't chew anything in there. It comes Wednesday. We need it to come fast. I walked him this morning.

I ran him this morning with a ball outside. I had to go out for an hour and a half, come back, and he's just like, he tore, he broke a remote. What's funny, Matt, is at night, he does none of this stuff. At night, he just sleeps. Like, he free roams our house, sleeps the entire night, doesn't make a peep, doesn't grab anything, except when we leave the house during the day, he acts like a maniac.

And so the crate cannot come here soon enough. So that's, it is, he's a big boy man he could jump on he jump on tables and countertops you gotta hide everything from him what do you think about um like dog ownership versus like like the first couple days of getting a dog versus the first few days of bringing home a baby what do you think's harder well i mean this is going to sound crude but sort of it's but well you you really like can't kill the dog the baby things go bad fast you know i mean like higher floor and ceiling yeah it's like you're not going to kill the dog if he just pisses on the floor you mean but like it's a the baby's a little different

you know i mean like the dog talk about feedback like you get the feedback from the dog you know i mean like you can leave the dog alone for 10 hours yeah it might in the crate it's not gonna die you know the baby alone matt it's like that's the difference right like this it's a fragile human that can't do anything by himself a dog that's a puppy but can do eat by himself go to the bathroom by himself play by himself obviously it's i i i just i always find it funny when people call themselves like a dog mom or it's like that's not a thing when you have a kid you'll realize it's not an actual thing yeah no you're right but i i do think when you get a dog though like they can do more

stuff like when you have a baby like the baby can't do anything right like you can like the baby like if you leave the baby in the crib like granted you have to be up every two hours to feed the baby but like and the dog doesn't need that much attention but like the dog can do more stuff like the baby can't really harm themselves the dog can like the dog can do more stuff like the baby can't really harm themselves the dog can like the dog can get outside and be run in the streets and it's over like that sure but then but then with the baby they're like you it can't be that's back too long like it's just all these like dumb things right like it's just like it's, if it rolls over too early, that's bad too. It's just like, things go bad so much quicker with a baby than with a dog.

So, it's a baby by far. There's no manual for the baby when it comes to your house. A dog, sort of a general idea. It's got to go poop. It's got to pee. It's got to play a little bit. It's got to sleep. It has to eat and drink. With a baby, you got to do some of the same things, Matt. You got to go poop it's got to pee it's got to play a little bit it's going to sleep it has to eat and drink with a baby you gotta do some of the same things matt you go potty

but then you i don't have to wipe my dog's ass okay my kid like you you you have a boy when you have a gr okay so the boy not have to get a little crude everyone the boy parts keep everything sort of down down when he goes to the potty. The girl, it's just everywhere. And you're just like, what the hell is this? So it's just different, man. Oh, the girl, buddy, it's a natural disaster. The boy, Erica, sort of stays down there a little bit. So it's just different, man.

It's just different. Oh my God. Yeah. It's a wild thing. The thing with dogs is like the personality you get from day one, like day one is like the hardest thing of getting a dog, right? The first couple of days where it's like they're adjusting, you're getting to know them.

They just get easier and easier every day. Like dogs, it never gets harder. They're never one day going to be like, well, now I can do this. And like every week with the baby, you're like, wait, that thing we did last week. Now they hate that. Or like now they love it.

Like what, when did that happen? It's way more complex of problem solving than with dogs. I saw this, this is mom mom on TikTok who's pretty funny. She has kids a little bit older than my kids, but she always says to F them kids. And it's funny because it's true. But she gave this example, Matt, of she bought her kids muffins, a six pack of muffins.

She brings them home. They eat all six muffins immediately. And then so you go buy more muffins. You bring them home and the kids tell you to go screw yourself. I don't likeins anymore that's the it's like that's it's like that's what it is it's one day they like something they don't it's it's mind-blowing yeah it's a really insane way to view time passing because even like we had a different person than we did even two weeks ago and then you're just you're like well you have to be adjusting and refreshing and that's very humbling because i think as people we just see ourselves like well i'm just the same all the time like i'm i'm matt like you're jeff since we met each other

like our personalities are pretty much the exact same like there's been a few different things in our lives we're kind of the same but when you really think about it it's like we're moving through time and so are they. And there's so much happening for babies. And obviously every parent knows this, but it's something I didn't really understand until I was in the school. And it's rewarding though. My kids are coming home soon from the bus.

They'll be so happy. They're still in that stage. I mean, they're nine and seven. They're still happy to see me. So, all right, everyone. We did it. We got another podcast down. We're back next week. I got to figure out, I got to talk to Gabe because

I'm flying back from Buffalo Monday. We got to figure out what we're doing Monday. Hopefully, I have a good story to tell, good stories to tell. Yeah, I'm going to try to find some tailgates, Matt. I don't even drink. I just want to watch football. There's a football game on beforehand and stay warm and eat some good food.

One odd thing I'll tell you, one thing before we get out of here. The Bills don't open the parking lots until four hours before the game. That feels like not enough time to tailgate. Don't you open up the whole day if it's a night game and you let people come in at noon? It feels like not enough time, right? have you seen a bill's tailgate like this is for their own safety these fans are out of their minds like if they like it's a liability issue at some point like they just say i assume that it's i mean it's definitely different for other teams for these bills trying to get there whatever the rules are,

they're going to get around them. There will be plenty good time in that parking lot. I'm really jealous that you'll be able to see it because those Bills fans are absolute maniacs. God love them. I hope – I don't want to see them shattered again, but I do think Kansas City will probably just be Kansas City because that's what happens.

By the way, Kansas City-Baltimore would be unbelievable. Can't we just get that? That would be so fun. That would be fantastic. That would be fantastic. All right. Talk to you guys next week. Everyone enjoy the games this weekend.

Take care, everybody. We'll see you next time.