Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Divisional Round Predictions and Best Bets

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt go over their divisional round predictions and give their best bets for the week.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, January 17th. It is divisional round of the National Football League preview. It is Jeff Schwartz. It is Matt Ford. The Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. We are glad to be along to talk about whatever it calls the best weekend in NFL season. Matt, even though three of the games are six points or higher in a spread, we have obviously the best game of the weekend, most likely Sunday afternoon

between the Bills and the Ravens. You can find us on YouTube, on Twitter, on TikTok. Oh, TikTok, not anymore, buddy. No more TikTok, sorry. You can find us everywhere else that we will provide you with so many thoughts on that. I don't even start on the TikTok ban. It seems like we have other things in our country to worry about besides banning a social media app.

Nonetheless, I like watching it. When you're on the potty, man, you got a few minutes to kill, put on TikTok. I found good music on TikTok, some recipes. I got recipes on there I like. Nonetheless, Matt, we're here to talk to you about National Football League. How are you doing?

We talked about fires a lot last week. We will avoid that. We'll give another shout out though to the firefighters from all over that are helping out. Obviously inmates are helping out as well. So our firefighters from all over that are helping out. Obviously, inmates are helping out as well. So our, you know, firefighters from Oregon and Washington and Arizona and Vegas and Nevada. So we appreciate all the help on that. How are you doing, buddy? Doing much better than this time last week. Thanks. A lot of people, a lot of people are.

Things seem to settle down a bit. There's, there's so much to be done from here. I don't think it's possible to have ever lived or really spent more than an extended period at all in LA and not know someone who was affected by this. And yeah, it's staggering. And I, I was just talking to someone. It's like every time you hear about someone, it's like another gut punch, even if you don't know them. Cause it's just such an unimaginable loss in so many cases. So things are better for me personally, for Sam, the producer personally, I think.

So we're happy. We're happy to be here. Let's enjoy it. Yeah. And we'll enjoy it by talking football, I believe, for four games. Who knows where we're going to go with this. But I want to, before we get started here, I want to give a shout out to Pine Sports.

Go to pine-sports.com slash subscribe. Use promo code Jeff. It's a great tool. It is basically a sports wagering tool for professional sports to do research with. It has a great AI tool. I typed in there this week, Travis Kelsey receptions after a buy,

and it pulled up every game he has played with seven days more rest. It listed out all the receptions and yards he had, and it listed them by the day's rest, eight days rest, 14 days rest, 17 days rest. We'll talk a lot about why I like that in the first game here. It's a great research tool.

We talked about it before for Mike Tomlin. Anything you can think of, you can also go and check out what their model feels about certain props. So if you like a prop this weekend, type in that player, and it pulls up like all seven of the available. I remember putting Lamar Jackson in there, Matt, for I wanted to see just what it said over under certain props. You can sort of double-check your work if you would like.

It's a great tool to use. Again, pine-sports.com. It is sports with an S. Sorry about that. Yeah, the graphic says sports. It's sports with an S, yeah. Dot com slash subscribe. Use promo code Jeff to get 50% off your first month there.

It's an invaluable tool um 50 off like come on like we're hooking you up here i also put in there this week by the way like chiefs andy redoff a buy i mean there's so many things you just search that you want to search and i don't need to use bill barnwell anymore could you just use pine sports it's great yes jackson is uh their their ai chat tool spoiler alert uh jackson is going to be making some picks later in the show uh so thanks to the team at pine sports i had a nice conversation with them yesterday great group great great product we'll be talking about it a bit um even if we weren't friends with them uh we would probably be using talking about this the

whole show anyway um so i want to can i start with something jeff i've got something before we get into into these games i was uh watching a little video today and it was john burnthal who you may know from walking dead you may know him from uh we own this city the the sort of wire sequel, very celebrated actor. I have been a Washington Commanders, R-Words fan my whole life. I never knew that this man rooted for my team.

And last week I was watching NBC and they did a package with Jeffrey Wright beforehand. And everybody knows about McConaughey and Dale Earnhardt. It's like like there's something shifting with this team this washington team i don't think there's any group of fans on the planet having more fun than washington fans right now like they're coming out of the woodwork we've got new celebrity fans who are putting their brand on on our brand like something that just would have been unthinkable 14 months ago like honestly when dan sider on this team it was just impossible to think that anyone would be talking about anything

even neutral with this team and now they're playing detroit and everyone's like kind of like them kind of like kind of like the commander's a little frisky and i just can't i'm doing the lebron smiling can't believe this is my life move, like every day now. I think I've watched every single film this guy's ever been in without knowing his name. Yeah, he's a huge actor. He's the best.

Wolf of Wall Street, Fury, Sicario, Accountant, Baby Driver, Wind River. He's the guy that got killed in Wind River, spoiler alert, and The Bear, obviously. Punisher. Well, look, I think, Matt, to your point, it's now cool to be a Commanders fan.

Yeah, it's the coolest. And Jane and Daniels will talk about this game that is tomorrow night is not working anymore. He was fantastic against Tampa Bay. And I texted you this after the game, and it's very true. When you have a coach and a quarterback, you're set.

Dan Quinn can coach. He can coach, man. Yep. He can. It's not like they're 9-8. They're 13-5, are your commanders. Yeah. So it's cool to be a commanders fan now,

where for years, I think people weren't hiding. How do you think Danielnyder feels right now about right now you think he's like jealous at all i hope he is i hope he is bitter and angry and upset i he's very rich uh so you know god bless him i guess but i i just think this is just such a unique situation and i still feel like people aren't really giving Jaden enough credit quite yet. Like there was this conversation in this week of like, okay, there aren't that many guys who have ever won a court rookie quarterback

who have won a game in the playoffs. And then there's even fewer who have won a next game in the playoffs. And like, you look at, you know, the last guy to do it was Mark Sanchez with the jets. Joe Flacco had done it the year before, like when Joe Flacco, or I'm sorry, was Mark Sanchez with the Jets. Joe Flacco had done it the year before. When Joe Flacco, or I'm sorry, when Mark Sanchez did this, Darrell Rivas was on that team. Nick Mangold was on that team.

There were tons of stars on that team. When Joe Flacco did it the year before, it was the Ray Lewis Ravens. Jane Daniels is doing this with a bunch of nobodies for the most part. There's McLaurin and there's Bobby Wagner and a few other really nice players. And that's it. So I just think, you know, not only to do this as a rookie, but to do it as the focal point and the best player on the team. It's just unreal.

Like we, I, we've never seen anything like it in our lifetime, at least. So that's a hail, the hail to the commander segment of the just worth the smarter than you podcast i know matt's been waiting all week which i absolutely love for this i saw that video today and i was like i'm starting with this this is the last week i'm gonna have to do it so i'm gonna start because i think we all we as much as you're a commander's fan uh i don't i don't i don't know if you're going to uh to win this weekend i don't obviously pro well pft is the number one commanders fan i think out there doing media right now and so he's been he's been uh he's been pretty pumped

pft you see the pft comment about the end racism in the end zone? Yeah, yeah, yeah. How many people could say that and get away with it? Very, very good work by PFT. Those two guys are comic geniuses. Yeah, they're great. Even though it sounds like Dan is not from Chicago, the horror. Have you seen that story, by the way? I have. A lot of people are very bent out of shape about that.

Okay, very quickly. It's not really a defense of Dan, but this does feel like a very internet thing. Like if I told you that I was a fan of a team and then I went to college somewhere and became a fan of a different team, you'd be like, oh yeah, that makes sense. Cool, yeah, that's not normally how it works.

And yet somehow they're crushing Dan for being a Chicago sports fan after moving to Wisconsin and going to school there and becoming a fan. And then obviously he juiced it up for his work Somehow they're crushing Dan for being a Chicago sports fan after moving to Wisconsin and being, going to school there and becoming a fan. Then obviously he juices up for his work because that's what he was doing at the time. But like, this feels like a very natural thing. Like if I moved to Charlotte and became a North Carolina fan, you'd be like, oh yeah,

that makes sense. You're in Charlotte or you become a Panthers fan. Like, yeah, you're. And for some reason they're just crushing Dan for being, for being a Panthers fan. Like, yeah. And for some reason, they're just crushing Dan for being a Patriots fan as a youth and then becoming a Chicago sports fan when he moved there. I just think, Jeff, this is what I've learned from my years in media. Yeah.

This right now is as famous as I want to be. I want to be known by people who really love this show. Yeah. Maybe a few, you know, a lot this show. Yeah. Maybe a few, you know, you've a lot of people follow you. Maybe a few people will be like, Oh,

this guy seems to have a nice opinion here and there. What, what, whatever I, this, I don't know how you, anyone wants the internet to like find reasons to be upset with them. Like it's just insane.

It's an insane burden. I can't imagine the people who put themselves out there all the time. You learn to ignore it. Now, obviously, from my position, it's a lot easier, right, than, like, say, like, I feel much, you know, like, for Annie, like, it's probably tougher for Annie. I'm sure the comments she gets aren't great. But, like, I'm in a position where I can just see, like,

oh, you don't like me? Okay, like, my life will continue. I'll just block you and move it along. Like, you don't like me okay like my life will continue i'll just block you and move it along like i don't even like i don't care um the big cat thing is different he's so famous and he made up you know he made such his personality the chicago sports fan that coming out as being a boston sports fan you know i i get what people i guess are upset about it but yeah i mean i think what those two guys have done by the way is like they're both married they have i i think i know dan has kids i don't know pft has kids or not but you wouldn't even know like they've done a great job of keeping their their private life private it's pretty remarkable yeah yeah and it makes a lot of sense like you know you got to keep your individuality

somewhere i just think uh yeah i mean i don know. It's tough out there. So, uh, you know, thanks for all the, all the nice comments we get and we do sometimes get them, uh, and leave us, leave us reviews, please. We do appreciate reviews. Yeah. Only five star. I mean, preferably. Um, but if you want to leave us less, I mean, you can let us know, but preferably five stars. Um, all right, Matt. So the way we're going to do this today, like we did last week, we're going to give five wagers for the four games. We're going to list them out in basically order of strength. So five is a five-point play, four, three, two, one.

And then we have Jackson's from Pine Sports. We'll play along, too. He will give the AI tool. Pine Sports will give their too. He will give the AI tool, Pine Sports will give their five best plays of the week. He'll also have notes for our five plays as well. So we'll share those out. Last week, I gained seven points. I hit my four-pointer, my two-pointer, my one-pointer.

So I got seven. I believe you beat me though last week. I did. Aha. Yeah, I hadston for my five pointer i had the rams and i even i even took them at the money line for two and i did a double under for my one pointer so okay uh yeah we both hit houston that was the only side you took you took tampa first half was that right yes yeah yeah and that that tied Only have one side this week, buddy. All right.

Yeah, this is a great week. We'll touch on the national championship at the end, too. Okay. So, all right, first up, your Chiefs kick off the weekends at 4.30 Eastern tomorrow. They are laying eight and a half split down the middle, man. We're still seeing 50 50 money wise so the biggest of the good number here um so i i think the easy take is chiefs win and do the texans cover that's the question so this is a i do another podcast called bear bets with with um sammy p will hill

and chris flake and sammy mentioned that someone told him this line should be Chiefs minus four and then Chiefs money line minus 5,000. Like... Yeah, that's right. Yeah. Chiefs are not losing. I have a lot of money in them not losing. I'll tell you that.

I made a big money line wager on them. It's the first one I've done all season. I have a big money line for a favorite. Chiefs are 6-0 in divisional games with Patrick Mahomes. They're really good off a bye. Houston, a dome team outside. It's going to be near zero degrees. Matt kickoff tomorrow in Kansas City.

Stroud plays worse. I mean, everything is a lie for Chiefs. Jalen Watson's back, which is a huge addition to their defense. They're very, very healthy on defense. And I think it's a tough matchup for the Texans. Now, do they cover the game? Probably. I mean, look, Matt, this game could be 24-17,

and the Chiefs never feel like they're going to lose the game. You know what I mean? Like, it's one of those games where covering eight and a half is hard. I will say, I'm sure you have this. You can use the Jackson tool in Pine Sports. Look this up. But underdogs who win in division around, it's going to be wild card round, so round one,

division around, Matt, they don't win, they don't cover very well. So just a note, we talk about commanders, talk about the Rams, which was a short dog. We talk about Houston, that was a three-point dog. So I love two props in this game. Same player. Well, I'll save those maybe for my – no, no.

We list them out now, right? Then we just repeat them at the end? Is that how we do this? No, no. Save them for the end. Save them for the end. I like a couple player props here. I think the Chiefs handle business.

I think it's pretty simple. I have a lot of money lines. I hope they do. Yeah. The Chiefs will win. I think an interesting stat. So 13 plus days of rest, which Mahomes has. Mahomes 19 and three straight up 13 and nine against the spread.

And that includes some week one games. Obviously, that's more than 13 days of rest. I think the way that the Texans keep this close is like, Oh, the chiefs come out a little flat. It's cold. You know, maybe they,

you know, they get a turnover or something. I think, I definitely think that the chargers and the chiefs offenses are different, like different efficiencies, different ways that they can screw up or not screw up in the chiefs case. efficiencies different uh ways that they can screw up or not screw up in the chief's case but the way that the texans can keep games close is they have a great defensive line they have a great secondary and they can just sort of like if it's cold they can just kind of muck it up

and the total for this game it was i think it's still the lowest of the weekend i'll just double check that uh it's 41 and a half. So if you're laying all these points with the Chiefs, like you kind of have to be honest. You're like, OK, so it's going to be,

you know, 2410. Like if you're, you know, somewhere around there, 2110, like that's possible. I just the Chiefs often don't play games like that.

They have the last three wins they had were all covers by more than the eight points um which is interesting but i think i think houston is better than people realize i think they're like a better playoff team than people realize they have decent defensive as i said a good defensive line they have a decent running attack and stroud is still like a quarterback like he's he's a real quarterback so i think they probably keep this close but um of course the chiefs are going to win this game

and i don't think it will ever really feel tight okay yeah i mean i know i think i know what your play is gonna be later on but i i have look again a lot of my top achieves just winning this game and i i i i think they will i i'm kind of lot of my top chiefs just winning this game, and I think they will. I'm kind of unconcerned that they're going to lose this game, honestly. I don't want to see it happening. Yeah, and I think that probably works against the Chiefs a little. Like, if this were Baltimore, you'd feel like maybe they'd pop, you know, or Buffalo.

But with the Texans, it's like they don't have to, like, empty their bag this week. They just need to get through to the next round. No, but again, I want to make the point, like, they're well-versed in resting. Like, I'm not expecting them to come out slow in this week. They just need to get through to the next round. I want to make the point, they're well-versed in resting. I'm not expecting them to come out slow in this game. I don't see it happening, Matt. Even in the game,

their offensive line played a drive against the Broncos. They practiced that entire week. It's not like they just didn't play the full game. I think they're going to be fine. I think they're going to come out just fine. I'm not concerned about them, like in the way that they start this game, essentially. Jackson says the Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread in their last six playoff games, which is crazy.

But they're 16 and 17 against the spread with the rest advantage since 18. Yes. They win those games, but don't cover. Right. So that's pretty interesting and this is this is a big number i also think you know these two teams played already and usually at that point like the second time around the the chiefs this was what week

it was just like a month ago yeah it was like week 15 or something it was during their their three games in 11 days stretch yeah and the texans it was the game it was the game mahomes was supposed to miss with his ankle remember yeah and they won it right that's right and they won it by eight um yeah so yeah we'll see i think uh oh favorites of over seven and a half points have won 18 straight playoff games so that doesn't bode well for the texans or my team um so yeah let yeah, let's move on to my team, actually. They're playing the Lions 8 o'clock on Saturday. The Lions are laying 9.5.

Again, the money is split right down the middle. Yeah, what's your take on this one? It feels like an uphill battle, Matt, for the commanders in this game. It does. Look, great game last weekend. We spent the first 15 minutes talking about the Commanders just to turn it into a Commanders podcast for a couple minutes.

But I like when Matt's very passionate about his team, so we let it ride. It's rare. It is. We've been in this show like seven years now. I give Matt one three minute block. That's all I deserve, man. This team has been a mess.

Um, and what's funny is the best moment, like the last 10 years, I was a part of, I was, I was in the Vikings when RG three had that touchdown run. I will never forget that. But now I, now I don't recall it as well because Jaden's given me so many new memories. Okay. The thing about this game is that it's a commander's Jaden Daniels has to be like the best player in the field game for them to win. And he might end up being that guy, but the Lions are so talented

and they're rested and they're off a bye. I mean, they're just better than the commanders. The Tampa Bay game too, I mean, you can make the case that Tampa Bay didn't give the game away, Matt, but they made a lot of mistakes that Washington was able to capitalize on. And the Lions just aren't going to do that. And so I'd like to match up here for the Lions. I think that the Lions probably do cover. I don't have a side in this game.

I think it's super high scoring. I haven't bet the total yet either. Here's why I haven't bet the total. Both these teams go for a ton on fourth down. If they don't convert on fourth down, then the game goes under. You know what I mean? Like it could be a 25% fourth down day

for both these teams. They go one for four, each of them. And now all of a sudden, the game is 24-20 instead of being 42-24, which I think is very possible. So I do like a prop in this game. According to what I said about Daniels. I think Daniels has to be

the man in this game for Washington to keep this one close. But I think the Lions are just better, Matt. I think they're just better than the Commanders. Yeah. They certainly are. You're right. If you're backing Washington, basically, I think it's sort of

similar to the Chiefs game, where it's like, okay, Detroit's probably winning this one. How comfortable are you with trying to basically hit a backdoor? I think... So my theory, Jeff, is there's going to be at least one

blowout this weekend. There's going to probably be one upset, and then there's probably going to be a team that just feels kind of inevitable. I can't tell what the upset's going to be. It's not going to be Houston. I have some doubts about the Rams that we'll get to. There is a possibility. The possibility is that the Lions get a little bit distracted

from the thing that will work against Washington, which is just running the ball constantly. Washington is atrocious against the run. They get David Montgomery back. If he's fully healthy and they run the ball consistently, I don't really see a way that this game is manageable for Washington. The thing that Washington can do is what they did last week, which is they played a slow game in that like there were stretches of like a whole quarter where Washington just had the ball the whole time, right? Like they can get the fourth downs. They can, they, they do that weird thing where they

like do the no huddle, but it takes all that time. And it's just like a little bit of confusion for the defense. And if it's, if the lions don't get the ball 15 times, then they can keep it kind of close. So I do think Washington can. And I think that they're like, yeah, they're happy to be there, but they're going to run through the tape're a good team and like they play hard yeah they will definitely play hard i think um you know the the thing that is potentially interesting the lions are one of the best first half teams against the spread this year so if they come out super hot indoors loud crowd it could get really ugly quickly. But something that's kind of interesting is teams that missed the playoffs the year before in this round are, where is this stat? Evan at Friended Action Network had it. What's that? It's not good, right? Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28 and 14

against the spread in the divisional round. So they're basically, it's just like, we're happy to be here. We're going to play our asses off. We have nothing to lose. And those are often the teams you don't want to face if you're one of these big favorites.

So I, this is going to be a fun game. I think that probably the under is the play here. If you're into the total, because I do think that both teams are going to say, Hey, we need to just like, hold onto the ball as long as we can uh to make sure that the other team just this doesn't turn into a shootout so what if there is what if what if um the lions just explosive play like

the commanders to death on the ground they could but then washington's play is not going to be like cool let's do that like they don't they, you'll, you'll see what I have for, um, for my weight, for my wager for this game. It's, it's going to be, it's the reason why it's just sort of game theory, right? That's where I'm going. Yeah. I think that there's a good chance the lines win by the winning cover. Um, there's, I, I will probably, if I'm taking a side here, take Washington with the points. I'm obviously a bit biased. But yeah, it's basically a Jaden and Kingsbury

shrinking the game play. Yeah, yeah. All right. All right. Next, good. The next two games are great. Rams at Eagles. Public loves the Rams. 67% of the money, according to Action Network, is on the Rams, who are catching 6.5 in Philly. Where are you on this game? Yeah, I like Philly on this game, Matt. It's a bad matchup for the Rams. Let's just start with a couple of things we know, right? Great win for the Rams on Monday night.

They only scored 20 points offensively in that game, right? They had a 7 on defense. Take out Week 18 when they didn't play. The three previous games, 13 points, 19 points, 12 points. So that's 12, 19, 13, 20 on offense. Not good enough, right, to play a road playoff game, in my opinion. Short week, going to the cold in Philly. So dome team outside in the cold.

And what the Rams do well, right? Rush the passer on defense. The Eagles' offensive line is going to stop that. The Rams' rush defense is not great. What the Eagles do well? They run the ball really well. Matt Stafford, if he gets pressured by the front four and Cooper Cupp is not sort of the right receiver he's been,

he's a little older, a little more beat up. If they take away Pukunukua, where's the ball going? I just think that there's a lot more what-ifs for the Rams, and I feel very comfortable with what I know about the Eagles. You can certainly make the case that the Eagles' offensive struggles last week, we've seen those this season, and whether they're going to show up in this game, I don't know. But we have seen this season,

Matt, when they played poorly in offense and it wasn't the best performance for them. The next week, they typically come back and play better. And they're the one, they're the one unit that when you look at Buffalo and Philly and the Rams that rested, the Eagles offense was the one out of the basically six units or offense

and defense. That sort of looked like they were still on a bye week. Like they just didn't, they didn't play as well as we thought they would after the bye. Nonetheless, I like them anyways. This game feels 28-13, 27-13 to me. I think that the, I mean, everyone's brought this up, but I'll bring it up.

Saquon, last time these two teams played, had a 300-yard game. There's a lot of concern about Philly's mainly hurts, A.J. Brown, whether they're both healthy, whether they talk to each other. Those are two separate concerns, but they're big ones. I have a feeling Philly has one path to winning the Super Bowl, and it's by handing the ball off to a lot and their defense is fantastic and this is a tough one man like if you're just picturing this is like this isn't brilliant insight by any means but the Rams they go to Arizona they win

this game in a in a crazy week they fly back to LA then they have a short week where they have to fly across the country and play in freezing cold outside weather where they have to tackle Saquon Barkley 100 times it's not a great spot the fact that everyone loves the Rams and the line is actually moving in the Rams favor because the models all favor Philly so much I think is very telling and you know it's just it's not great because the models all favor Philly so much, I think is very telling. And, you know, it's just, it's not great. Like teams that go outside, indoor teams that go outside in the cold,

like tend to not do well. Matthew Stafford in December or later, 6-24 as an underdog coming into the season. He's won his last three. Stafford's just started one game under 40 degree temperatures in the last three years. So, I mean, I just think, I think this is a, a game built for the Eagles physical team on both sides of the line. Like they're not going to get, you know, the, the Rams pass rush looked way better than

it actually is after last week. And I just think Philly is going to overwhelm them. I think they're too good. I think so too. Um, I have a fun wager for this game, Matt. It's a little off the wall, but I like it. Actually, I think I gave you two wagers for this game. One normal, one a little off the wall.

I mean, I sent them to you yesterday. Did you read the email? You just forwarded it right to Pine Sports. I did read it, but I still have a one-year-old. So my memory is kind of just like, it just, that is very fair. Um, yeah. So I read it, I retained it and it's gone. Um, yeah.

So I got two wagers in this game. I actually have a side for once, uh, for a normal wager. Cause Matt was mocking me for not having any normal wagers. The other one is not normal. So, um, there's many ways to play this one. And I like the Eagles to, to cover this one. All right.

We've got one more game left. Everyone says it'd be the best game of the weekend. Do you think it's the best game of the weekend? We'll see. It's certainly the one that has seemingly the most on the line. It's Baltimore at Buffalo, Baltimore laying points in buffalo and it's split everybody's right down the middle again so you can get a one or maybe a one and a half uh for

either side here so yeah man what's your take i mean this is this is this is gonna be interesting so i actually matt have zero wagers on this game. And you want to know the reason why? I'll tell you. It's my part. I'll tell you why. Neither of these teams, the iterations, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, have won this game yet.

They've lost this game every time. Someone has to win, obviously. But they've lost this game every time, right? Buffalo can't beat Kansas City. Baltimore didn't beat Kansas City last year. They beat the Titans a couple years ago. They've all lost this game. Now, they've lost it mostly to the Chiefs, so they're not playing the Chiefs this

weekend. But they've lost this game. And the pressure is immense on both these quarterbacks to get it done in this game. And this game comes down to something we cannot predict. A turnover. A special teams play. A fumble.

A drop. Like, just something that we don't, because I think these teams are very, very even. Quarterback, even. Yeah, Derek Henry's great, but James Cook's not a slouch. Bill's offensive line is better. Tight end, good tight ends, good wide receivers. Young for Buffalo.

Defense, Buffalo's probably a little bit worse, but they have guys back and healthy. It just feels like this game is so even, Matt, that I just, I'm going to watch it. I have nothing on it right now. You're not alone, actually. Everybody who I've talked to has kind of seen it the same way um and i think you know there isn't a ton of uh there isn't just like a ton of value on either side like i'm gonna say buffalo is the side like i'll take josh allen catching a point at home in

the playoffs yeah um but baltimore has more ways to win I think and the reason why they wouldn't win this game is if they get a little bit cute on how they play on offense like I did notice last week when they were playing Pittsburgh and it did feel like the Pittsburgh game was getting a little bit closer there were just like a couple of third down throws. A flowers was out that Lamar just kind of missed. And it was sort of like, I'm not sure Josh Allen would miss those. I'm not sure Jared golf would miss those. Like any of the Jalen hurts definitely would miss them,

but almost any other quarterback in the playoffs, you kind of feel like is making those throws. Yeah. And if Baltimore is in like a third and six late in the game, I'm kind of worried. And with Josh, I'm not. And I think,

I think the home crowd is going to be a huge advantage. I think that Baltimore is getting a lot of pop from a win last week that, you know, was kind of expected. And I don't know, man, it just feels to me like Buffalo isn't going to lose this game but they love to lose in this round so uh I too am going to stay away but if I had to pick I think it's going to

be Buffalo I will say that I think if you ask most football people who cover the sport they say like this is Baltimore's time I don't know what that means. Yeah, I don't either. The time for what? Like, they're the three seed. Last year was their time when they were the one seed. Like, this is not their time. They've got, like, two road games, potentially, against Buffalo and Kansas City.

Baltimore is good, but, like, I don't view them as, like, this is their time. Derek Henry's obviously had a different element to what this team can be. They run the ball really well at the end of games and closeout games as well. But, I mean, look, Josh Allen just does so much to extend plays and throw the ball down the field. Lamar can do that, of course, as well. But those plays Josh makes are backbreakers, dude. They're just killer.

And, again, to me, you can't handicap for those. So I had nothing for this game. I mean, it's totally fine to have nothing for games, Matt. I got nothing for this one. Yeah, these are good games. They're hard to predict. Yeah. All right, we've gone through the four games.

We're now going to give you our picks again. We're going with five star, four star, three. So that's how we get points for the game. So you win your five point game, you get five points, four points, four-star, three. So that's how we get points for the game. So you win your five-point game, you get five points, four points, three points, two points. With their help, Pine Sports, pine-sports slash subscribe,

promo code Jeff, you get 50% off. Their AI tool, Jackson, is going to give us notes for these wagers and then give us his top five, I mean, it's props, right? Or wagers for the weekend. Is it props or wagers wages for the weekend Yeah, I don't think there's any sides So you can also take again guys. I'm telling you this tool is fantastic You can go type anything you want in there

Just anything pops your head for any stat You can analyze your idea of what you think player props are gonna be with their projections and their tools There's other people submit sort of their their basically um what's it called their um their their system plays essentially right they create their own system you can find those as well uh highly um uh recommend them to you guys to just use and try for at least a month promo code jeff and see if you like it it helps your research i'll tell you that matt all right yeah so would Recommend them to you guys to just use and try for at least a month. Promo code Jeff. And see if you like it. It helps your research.

I'll tell you that, Matt. All right. Yeah. So would you like me to do my five first? Yeah. Go through it. Okay. So here is my five with our good friends here at Pine Sports.

Travis Kelsey, over five and a half receptions. Wow. All right. So here's the thing with Travis Kelsey. He's had, since 2019, since the Super Bowl run, he has had eight playoff games, Matt, where he has had at least eight days off, essentially. Right? Basically, I went a bye week.

So eight games where he had a bye week, essentially. Okay? That includes, like, last year when they didn't play week 17. So the week he had off. Okay? In those eight games, Matt, including two Super Bowls, he's had at least six targets and six catches. And in six of the eight, especially the non-Super Bowls,

he had 10 or more targets with seven, eight, nine, 10, 13, 14 catches. This is the time of year when the bye week does Travis a lot of good. He's fresh. He's healthy, and Mahomes targets him a ton because that's his dude in these games. So I think what happened in the previous games don't matter. Look at what happened in the playoff games when he has rest. So Travis Kelsey, over five and a half receptions. I'm going to correlate this with Travis Kelsey over 52 and a half receiving yards, Matt. If he gets those catches, he's getting those yards. So those are correlated.

So basically it's one bet I'm putting into two bets. My three-star play essentially is the Eagles covering six and a half, six. We talked about this earlier. I think the Eagles just win this game 27-13. They're better. They're going to grind this one out, Matt. I don't think the Rams are going to score. It's not a situation I like the Rams here.

Jayden Daniels, over 34 and a half pass attempts. This is a Jayden Daniels game, Matt. They have to throw the football for them to keep this game close. It's a high number. You're the commander's fan. I mean, this feels like a 40 pass attempt type of game for Jayden Daniels. Yeah, it does. Okay, the last one.

This is the oddball. You ready? Do we agree the Eagles are going to win? You agree with Okay, the last one. This is the oddball. You ready? Do we agree the Eagles are going to win? You agree with me, right? Yeah. And take on Barkley's going to rush the ball reasonably well? I love taking his backup gain well

over rushing. That's cool. Over nine and a half yards. Okay? That's fun. It's like three carries against with the Eagles' offensive line. That's all he needs.

Run the ball a lot. He's the third down running back. Third and six. They love to run the ball in third and six. Third and long, they run the football. So with our friends here at Pine Sports, he averaged 18 yards a game in his last 10. This has hit over 70% of the time.

So those are my five. Hopefully I can... What's the math of that? Nine, 12, 15 points, right? So we'll get all 15 points here. Yeah. I love the gain. Well, one, um, he's let's see in the last 10 games, he's hit that, uh, 70% of the time according to Jackson. So, uh, yeah, I like that one i think the kelsey one's fun i mean that's you're exposed and it's interesting because i have another chiefs uh prop bet and why don't we just go to it i'll explain um so so i have uh my favorite bet of the week the graphics is eight i'm going to say that i got the eight and a half which is still the number uh on the texans um the chiefs 15 wins as it says here uh they've covered eight points four times

uh and three of them were in the last three games that they won um i just don't think that the the chiefs have any incentive to blow anyone away here and we've seen this movie so many times uh where they just you know know, it's close. It's not, oh, it's back to war. Oh, whatever. Now we see Carson Wentz at the last drive and no wait, it's only an eight point game, but it never really felt close. So of all the spreads this weekend, I felt like this one was probably the most doable.

So I will take Houston to cover. They were my, they were my five slot last weekend did me well. I'll take Washington to cover the nine and and a half we've talked plenty about them uh no double digit losses since week one uh so i think that no matter what they'll just keep this game close even if it doesn't feel like it's a close game um my prop bet jeff is no gray i uh so so the the case here basically this was Jackson who helped me out so he's the last couple weeks he hasn't hit this because they've arrested him or obviously the last week but they haven't really needed it like they were kind of up in these big games but the thing with Houston they're so good

in the secondary they have great corners right Stingley they're able to sort of they're i think they're going to key in on the wide outs and worry about the run game and so i think kelsey's going to get his chances and i think gray is going to get his chances and uh yeah 70 hit rate of over 11 and a half yards this was the thing that jackson shouted out from the rooftops and i had the same read of the game as you did and i was i laughed when i saw that kelsey was your choice because i think gray is a safe bet especially if it's like the game's kind of out of hand and they need to throw like i think i mean they play a bunch of two tight end formations and he's a tight end guy so it makes sense yeah so uh i like gray uh that's my

three star my two star uh is philly and this is a this is a same game parlay teaser so shout out to ian at pine sports for getting this on the graphic so i'm going to tease up the total six points okay so i think that based on the script of this uh i think it makes sense based on the cold weather and uh you know the success that both both the running backs karen williams also um has had a lot of success he was very good at the beginning of the game last week. I think in the beginning of this game, it's just going to be a heavy handle of Barkley and Williams. So I'm getting a little bit of value and pass through some key numbers on

the total. And then it's, this teases down to the Eagles just to win. So this goes from six and a half to half a point. So same game parlaying those and Buffalo is my last pick i think you know i'll throw i'll throw a flyer on it i'm not as well versed in the prop market as you are um so this was the one i was like you know what i think buffalo catching a point and a half i like this number baltimore yeah it's like let me just let me just go ahead and take josh allen uh to win

this game uh at home so we'll see i'm not putting not putting all my bones on that one, but I like my five. All right. So we have my five, your five. Let's see Jackson's five picks here. Yeah. So this is from the AI at Pine Sports. Okay. So the five-star play is Barkley longest rush over 18 and a half yards.

I played this a few weeks ago. I like this market. The longest rush. It's a half yards. I played this a few weeks ago. I like this market. I, the longest rush. Um, I, I, it's a good market to be in.

Yeah, it is. And I mean, he had two 70 yard touchdowns last time these two teams played. Um, so yeah, I think he's going to, he's the key to the team.

So it's an interesting, interesting read there. Um, I'll play rush over. I play longest rush over a lot. It's, it's a fun market to play. Um, all right. Uh, number, uh, four, um, cream hunt over eight and a half rush attempts.

Uh, they, they project a 10.4 to 10 and a half. The only thing I'll say is Andy Reed is so much of like a hot hand guy that I never really know if he's going to give the rush attempts to everyone or just the guy who's rushing the ball. Well, if this is a, uh, not a blow up,

but not a close game, the cream hunt will certainly get this. He does get a lot of the short yardage carries too. It's not, it's not a bad call here. Yeah. It's yeah. It's if the hot hand comes, then this could easily cash.

Especially if it's a blowout at any point. Yeah. All right. Next up, Jalen Hurts' longest rush over 11.5 yards. Interesting. 70% hit rate in the last 10, 80% in the last five. The projection is 15-yard rush here. As someone who had Jalen Hurts last weekend, Matt,

over his rush yards, it was 36 and a half I got. He had 37. Then Saquon Barkley decided to take a knee on that final rush. Jalen Hurts had a kneel down and had lost by half a yard. Oh, man. And it had and had lost by half a yard. Oh, man. And it had already been graded as a win. I got an email saying, like six hours later, they regraded it as a loss.

That was a lot of fun. Ton of fun. That was fun. All right. Lamar Jackson over one and a half passing touchdowns here. They project 2.5, passing touchdowns, it used to be 2.15. They just think he's going to pass the ball,

which makes sense, right? I mean, you gear up to stop the run, right? And you end up, boom, hitting, you know, and the last one, the one-star play is Xavier Hutchinson on the Texans under 17 and a half receiving yards. Xavier Hutchinson, I have to Google this man.

I will say that I was texted earlier in the week with a buddy. I, that's, there's a sharp buy in, uh, in the, uh, in the, in the community here who actually had his over 11 and a half. So that's number is six yards different after they played that number. So interesting. Right. I mean, at 11 and a half, you're like, cool cool 17 and a half might not be worth it anymore safety over interesting yeah 17 and a half now so six yard difference wow this is this is why you use a tool like this right like this is these aren't just like guys giving out picks like us these are i would never

have even played any of these markets maybe the lamarar one. So we'll see how they do. I like the challenge. Yeah. All right. So we'll tweet out these graphics. I think we should do that. Yeah, for sure. Send them to me or send them to Sam or Hank

or whoever has access to my Twitter account. It's not great probably that Hank has access to my Twitter account. Right. So nonetheless, though uh pine dash sports.com subscribe use promo code jeff it's a great tool guys if you like to research things to sort of have um numbers to back up your wagers or even just sometimes maybe you're wrong and you want need someone to double check um they're the ones to use um

so all right buddy anything else i'm i'm fired up buddy go commanders no more no fires talk i think we're all set dude i think uh i think we've covered it all i've seen so many i've seen so many people talk about the fire bill burr had a great one on jimmy kimmel it's like you don't even live here like why are you talking about this you have no idea it's it's frustrated me to no end but uh it's crazy how the cycle just passes. It's like no one talks about it anymore on social media. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, I wish everyone the best luck in your bets this weekend. Continue to support to the firefighters in Los Angeles batting those fires. Look, my dog said enough, Matt. He's like, enough of you talking. I'm ready to go. He's about to jump in my lap right now. So I think we're done here, everyone. Thanks, buddy. I'll talk, enough of you talking. I'm ready to go. He's about to jump in my lap right now. So I think we're done here, everyone.

Thanks, buddy. Talk to you guys next Friday. We'll have two games. Oh, quickly. Very quickly. Oh, yeah. Ohio State minus 8.5. Riley Leonard over 14.5.

Rush attempts. These championship games most often are blowouts, Matt. It's a bad matchup for Notre Dame. There's nothing Notre Dame is better than Ohio State. Ohio State has bigger, faster, stronger. Ohio State has allowed 17 points or more to one team this season in two games. That's Oregon, 21 and 32 points. Everyone has scored 17 points or less.

It's just a bad matchup for Notre Dame. So I have Ohio State covering, and I have Ryan Leonard, their quarterback on Notre Dame, over rush times. Remember, in college football, a sack is a rush attempt. So four sacks and 11 rush attempts, essentially, you're over. So five sacks, 10 rush attempts. There we go. So that's my CFP preview.

Okay. I like it. Good luck to you, buddy. Good luck on your bets. Great to see you. Came here, buddy. Talk to you later. Peace, everyone.

Have a good weekend. It's great to see you. Came here, buddy. Talk to you later. Yeah. Peace, everyone. Thanks, man. Peace, everyone. you