Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Drake Vs Josh Chiefs On The Brink Philip Rivers Returns Week 15 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

Geoff Schwartz and Matt Ford discuss every game on tap for this weekend and settle on their Five Best Bets to wager on. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code GEOFF to get $200 in free bonus bets when you bet just $5. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome into Jeff Schwartz is Smarter than you. Today's episode, Jeff Schwartz is Smarter. Presented by Drafings, Draftings, the Crown is yours. Today is Friday, December 12. I am Jeff Schwartz alongside, as usual, Matt Ford on Friday. We were previewed the week 15 of the National Football League. And we'll talk about news and notes in the game last night. But first, Matt, how was your trip to Vegas?

You went last week after the show. You stayed for a couple days profitable? Like, had we doing the blackjack? How was it? Tell me all of it. Wow, you know, I didn't get a massage, which was a miss. The opportunity didn't arise, but it was my most profitable Vegas trip ever. Okay.

Most profitable ever. Did well with some UFC underdogs. Did well with, sure. Went in pretty big on the Jacksonville bet. Okay. Which was one of our five last week. Also went in pretty big on some commanders bets, which were dead in the first five minutes of the game. But yeah, I've got some, there's one good.

story I'm going to save until the end of the show about Blackjack. But in general, a very, very profitable, good trip. Spent some time at some, like, some new casinos, like, just had a good time. It was, it was nice. The thing about wagering on sports, a lot of times, you can tell right away when your bet's dead. That's why I like it a little bit more than, like, Blackjack, because, like, the commander's bet, when they, when they didn't get scored touchdown there on that, the four tries inside the four, you're like, that, that's it. That was fun. That was fun while lasted. that was fun. That's the thing about wagering.

Food good? Like I, you know, there's all these stories now about like Vegas, right? And how it's costing too much now and it is. The food's expensive and they're not, you know, they're not like, you know, giving, you know, discounts anymore and the Vegas higher now in some of these games. It just feels like a kind of a hassle to go to Vegas now. It does. I think they're starting to realize that.

The food, I think Vegas is the best food town in the country now. because every celebrity chef, every, every restaurant. Yeah, but it's not, well, maybe it's L.A. prices pretty much. Like,

it's definitely, it's close to New York prices. Maybe more, maybe slightly less than New York, to be honest. But like, I don't know, you know what you're going for.

You know what you're signing up for when you go there. And like, if you really don't, you know, if you're, if you're going there to save money, you're, you've got the wrong trip for sure.

Oh, absolutely. But I do think they are sort of like, they're definitely gouging. the Vegas that like I got to know when I was in my 20s and used to go, you know, with my friends and, you know, would say like, I have $100 and that's my gambling budget for two days. Like, you could get by with that, you know, back in the 2000s. There are these 2010s. You can't now. And, you know, even the like, oh, I just like,

I got everybody a slice of pizza, you know, God knows what time in the morning. And it was like $45 for four pieces of pizza. And I was like, that seems like maybe a little bit too much for for limp pizza dough at 4 a.m. But who am I to say? I mean, New York, when I go to New York every week, there's a place across the, I mean, around the corner from the hotel that it's $1.50 still for a slice. Wow.

A $2.50 for a slice and a drink. Yeah, probably not the best pizza, but probably not the worst either. It's probably in the middle. Yeah. I mean, you know, I've had good pizza in New York City. It's incredible, obviously. But yeah, it's not, but you know what you're getting. It's not $45.

Yeah, no, it's not. Yeah, it's still, it's, dude, Vegas is the best. Like, I hear everybody's complaints are valid, but the heart and soul is still there. You can, they're starting to have some three to two blackjack, which is, which is good. I think they're going to have to like make the games a little more accessible or people just aren't going to be able to play there. One one thing that was kind of crazy was we went to a bar on Saturday night and we're like hanging out at this place. And then like a UFC fighter who just won his fight came in with like his people. And I was like, what is this group of people?

Like they all have like the cauliflower ear. Like what's going on here? And I realized it was like this guy who just who just like kicked the crap out of somebody and won a fight. And like I wonder if it's true like this with football players. Like being around those kinds of people partying is just frightening. Like I'm like, please don't bump into them. Like I don't want to just like get crushed if like I accidentally were to like knock elbows. with this UFC fighter who just took somebody out.

Just like an intense energy. Did I ever tell you my Vegas story when Team USA basketball was in town? So I was, I turned 21. I'm still in college. And we went to Vegas from my 21st birthday in the summer. All right. And the win had just opened a new nightclub called Trist.

It was like a big deal to go to Trist. So we went to, we went to Trist. And the only reason we got in is like nine dudes was we just found a group of women that were like waiting to get in. And we're like, we're just going with you, you know, like one for one. Right. Yes. Yeah. They said, yeah.

Yeah. So we get into this club and USA basketball was in town for their summer practices. I didn't, you know, they practiced there in the summer. Yeah. Yeah. And they're there just like. just you know they have things roped off and they have their sections and we were we were the pores okay and the pores are just sitting or dancing like on the dance floor with like no girls like

all the girls are flocking to like the team you know say players all this stuff right like and um then floyd mayweather comes in wow i don't know if he had a fight that night or was there to watch another fight and they do like the champagne sparklers where they walk around with like the champagne sparklers and this is in the era of like making it rain so then people started taking out ones and were like flipping them in like just like making him rain and us being the pores on the dance floor was grabbing the ones. We like, give me the money. Give me the money.

We just like so like, ha ha ha ha. I was like, give me the money. I was just like I was. So my vagus experiences have changed to like now getting a table at like what Republican doing a day, a day, you know, marshmallow concert with my wife from. 10 to 2 and then going to sleep and then go to dinner and going back to sleep. So my Vegas days have changed a little bit. Oh, my God.

I've been a wet world. I've been to wet republic now. I've been to like three like three day shows of DJs in the middle of the day. What? Marquis. Everyone goes there. Yeah, I've been to three of them now. And we've gotten like tables in the shade and like just I don't know, I've been there for like five hours and just go go home and go to sleep.

So I think it has certainly changed from when I was one of the pores, just grabbing ones that were being flumped there by Floyd Mayweather and his crew. That was my time. Now that you have a hit podcast. You don't know if you're doing stuff like that. Yeah, I don't have to. I have one story I want to tell at the end. Stick around.

Stick around. It's a little more PG-13. I'll tell it at the other. Okay. Okay. All right. Last night we saw the bucks lose again to a division opponent, in excruciating manner and horrific loss.

They're up 24, should be 2814 to the Falcons, lost the game 2928. Remember, last week they lost to the Saints in inexplicable fashion as well. Right now, the Carolina Panthers, and look, I made a wager for the Panthers to finish second. I think we did, right? We made it to finish second

because we thought to ourselves, they're not going to finish first, they're not going to make the playoffs so they don't finish first, but second place is certainly, attainable, they might win the division right now. The way this is going, they get New Orleans this weekend. If they go New Orleans and win, they're going to be a game and a half up on Tampa Bay.

Excuse me a game up. They're a half a game up right now. They'll be game up on Tampa Bay and they still have to play Tampa Bay twice. So, I mean, things can change. But more importantly, Tampa Bay feels like Matt, they're sliding in the wrong direction right now. And it does feel a situation where it's a wholesale change in the soft season. Todd Bowles has gone.

they're going to clear the roster out of the young players. They've lost with the old players. They lost five of their last six. And some of those have not been close. They lost the Buffalo by 12. They lost LA 34 to 7. I may feel to get heard in that game, obviously. Lost Saints Falcons.

It feels like this is sort of the end of the run for this Tampa Bay iteration. Yeah. And a shocking press conference by Todd Bowles afterwards, where he made a expletive-laden reaction. Seven. seven F bombs. Yeah, basically putting it on the players. And, you know.

I mean, at some point, he's not wrong. Yeah. I mean, does that ever work, though? No, no. It sounds like someone who's just like he knows he knows he's getting fired on the way out. He's trying to just tell everyone it's not his fault. I thought the, their season ended to me on that,

what was at third and 28, which, you know, the echo of the 283 with the Falcons was kind of funny. But, uh, I don't know. like the the bucks defense like this was this was the get right game for them short week

kirk cousins no drake london darnel mooney was banged up the whole game and you get beat by kyle pits and some guy named sill's five uh really really tough night for the bucks and kind of crazy that this might be the year that their division streak ends i it i mean the chiefs division streak is going to end their streak's going to end it feels like baltimore maybe the Baltimore and and whatnot. My favorite thing out of this whole thing is like, Kyle Pitts, this is, this is, this is, this is, this is, this is it, man. Kyle Pitts now.

I'm so scared. Don't get into that business. Somebody's going to throw a big bag of money at him. Yeah. People are like, Chiefs fans like, we want no, no, no, no, no, no Kyle Pitts. No. No, you can't do it. Sadie.

Like, draft someone else. No Kyle Pitts. So that's a little Thursday night recap for you there. I did have the over in that game. So that was nice to get on that over right there. I start the week off. Well, it was a fade of a couple people. So I'll take that a little easy cover. It was nice to have there. Let's start out with a big game this weekend in New England. Yeah. Last week, by the way, two and three. Houston and Jacksonville are hits. And my beloved commanders led the pack in the misses. It's a new week. A new Friday. Bill's Patriots is the game you're referring to. The bills are one and a half points short road favorites at New England. England's Mike Brable 6 and 0 in the regular season off of a buy against the spread.

What side do you want here? So I like New England's team total over, by the way. I think it's 24 and a half, 25 and a half. You mentioned off a buy, which I think this offense will have a good plan for Buffalo Steve, which is not good, right? They can't stop the run. They're better against the past. I just run the football, right?

Just pound the run. Also worth noting like Drake May is legitimately good, Matt. Against pressure in the NFL this year, he's first in pass yards, first in yards per attempt, first and touchdowns are first in pass rating. Like he's playing good football. So Buff was able to even get to the passer and they have a good pass defense. Drake may can make them pay. This is sort of like a last ditch for the bills.

If they don't win this game, they don't win the division, obviously. They don't have the one seed. But it is so much on Josh Allen. Like we saw last week without the Josh Allen run, like they probably don't win that game, right? And even then, the Bengals came back and scored a touchdown late. I just don't really believe in Buffalo. I think we're still stuck as a football world, this idea that like Josh Allen, Mahomes,

that those guys are going to come through. And it feels like this season, they're just not. It says whatever, for whatever reason, they're not. The team around them is not good enough. I would probably leave New England here, but not really a favorite of mine. I like that team total better. Man, I thought this was going to be a pretty easy discussion.

because this to me is just screams Buffalo, dude. Really? Like I just, I get it with the Vrabel thing. A trend that no one's really talking about. Since 2021, McDermott and Allen are 8-0 straight up facing a team they've already lost to that season. So they do a good job of bouncing back in. That includes the Patriots, I think, three times. Okay.

I just think Buffalo like, this is the, this is more of a Patriots fade. and I get that I think that this is sort of like I don't know which side the public is on. I guess I can look. It looks like the public is 63% of the bets are on the Patriots as home dogs, which makes sense. But just a reminder,

the Patriots wins this year are against the following quarterbacks. Let me see if I can just do these as I look. Jackson Dart, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields. It's not great. the corpse of Baker Mayfields

Michael Panix whoever the Browns quarterback was Spencer Radler Cam Ward they beat the bills Bryce Young Aaron Rogers and lost to Gino this is a this is a playoff game against Josh Allen

where this team like just hasn't just hasn't had and by the way that the game where they beat the bills like a three point win with like a bunch of weird special team stuff like I'm just not a buyer and I think this is basically just saying are the bills going to win this game and I think they are like they I don't know like let's see what how the Patriots do against against the rushing attack without Milton Williams like I just I think this is a really good spot to take to take the bills well like they're down as a maybe I'm not going to go against if you really like them that much I think Buffalo if I had to choose a side it would be Buffalo it's not one that I trust per se but I understand like the reasoning why I mean this is again it's a du or that situation for them and New England could be overvalued.

I think it's a high scoring game though, right? I mean, it's got to be high scoring. I don't think it's weather. Like, it's going to be cold. We're going to talk about the weather a lot, I'm sure. Yeah. It's, it's got,

I think it's going to be a good game. And I think Buffalo is going to make a bit of a statement, but could be wrong. All right. Next one, God, from a great game to a tragic game. Jacksonville hosting the Jets. Who is the quarterback for the Jets? Brady Cook announced a couple minutes ago, starting quarterback. Oh, boy.

Jacksonville's favored by 13 and a half. I no thank you yeah I just I just pass yeah hard pass okay time saver how about Browns at Bears the Browns

oh boy the Bears are seven and a half point home favorites to the Browns the Browns coming off of a very strange loss minus 10 degrees or the same weather in this game so the point total of this is 38 and a half like how

do we not at least pass the Browns through to the maybe's here? Like we have to who's going to score in this game? Absolutely. Look, the Bears first half last week was bad, second half was much better. I give them credit for their fight. Like they

clearly have something in the moving the right direction, but this game's going to be bitterly cold, right? Again, minus 10, they're saying with the wind show off the lake there, right? You have the Brown's defense that's really good. The Bears want to run the football, right?

Kelo was, oh, boy. Oh, Fofi, wow, that was some anger there. He's against our Browns. Oh, fair enough to. No, my wife just grabbed him. That's why he barked. All right. So the Browns run defense is good.

The Bears want to run the football, right? He was only completing 58% of passes. It feels like a spot where if the Browns control the line scrimmage on their side of the ball, run the ball with Judkins. They've been creative offensively. I think Sanders is playing better. I mean, there's no doubt about it, right? He's playing much better.

I think the Browns, I'm totally fine with taking the Browns in the situation. I think, dude, it's, it's ugly. No one wants to. This is also just a strange spot for Chicago. They go, they had that, you know, letdown of a loss. Then they go next week and play Green Bay again. And then it's at San Francisco, which is going to have huge playoff implications and then Detroit. So this is like, can I read you the bear's defense real quick?

Yeah. Points allow 25. yards per play allowed 30 yards per carry allowed 30 pass yards allowed should be pass yards per attempt 28th takeaways first they're a very kind of lucky team like they kind of have this year's they're kind of like my team last year keep in mind too like some of these wins like remember the Cincinnati win that they had oh yeah remember the Washington win they had the Vegas win that they had like they've there two statement wins this year were Dallas and Philly which were obviously impressive wins but just like even if they win this game they're not going to win it going away

and Cleveland's defense like whether they want to show up or not like there it's going to be a low scoring defensive ugly game with a bunch of weird turnovers so a bit of a concern taking Shadr Sanders ever but I think I think we kind of have to consider this one I like you dude um I'm surprised the total has not come down because we've seen the games played in Cleveland with bad weather, the totals are like in 35, 34, something like that. So this total has not come down.

Now, I think this was open much higher, obviously, and it's sneaking down by half a point every 12 hours. But it's just, I'm good with Cleveland. I'm good with Cleveland here. Let's advance them through. We'll take a break shortly. We're back with a big game for the Eagles.

All right. We're back, Matt. Eagles host the Raiders. That rate. I'm going to give, so I don't know a ton compared to maybe obviously former quarterbacks when it comes to like, you know, quarterback concepts and whatnot and coverage. Like I'm learning, right? I follow the quarterback school, JTL Sullivan.

He's fantastic. And, you know, I just watch his videos. I try to learn about offense through his videos. And I watch the Eagles one familiar day, buddy. And the Eagles offense is just a mess, dude. It's a mess. It's Jalen Hertz. does a couple things well.

They try to rely on those couple things well. And other times the offense just a wreck, dude. Like they got free rushers. The route concepts don't make sense. They're not alerting for hots and sights. It's a real problem. It's week 15 now. And they have the same problems that they've had for weeks now.

The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL. I mean, this is not the time to back anyone in my opinion right now. But the Eagles have legitimate problems, I think. are they going to lose the vision? Probably not. But they should win this game. I mean, they could probably hand the ball to the sickle and Barkley

35 times to win this game. And maybe that's the plan. Just give it to sickle and Barclay. But it's not great. Yeah. I thought, I've been on both sides of this one this week because first I sort of thought like,

hey, maybe this is the game where the Eagles just get right and dominate a really bad Raiders team coming across the country to play in the freezing cold. Geno outdoors, like, has always had really bad splits. And then you think about it. And it's like, well, the Eagles, they haven't had,

they even put up a 30 point game, which is probably what you need to win by, you know, 12 or more points. The line in this is 11 and a half. Their last 30 point game was the Giants in week eight going into a buy. But throughout the whole season, like they have one double digit win

and it was that game. Every other game, you know, even the wins, 10, 7, 16, 9, 24, 21 loss to Dallas. The Eagles also, weird staff here Siriani and Hertz are 8 and 16 against the spread

off of a loss. That's second worst for our coach and third worst for a quarterback. The Eagles are also coming off this Monday night football overtime loss which is generally not going to bode well teams coming off overtime when the opponent isn't are 2449 and 3 against the spread that doesn't include a short week.

So it's like Raiders are probably the side here. But then I think that's one of those where like kickoff happens and you're like, it's 10 degrees. We're back in Gino Smith against the Eagles and it kind of a must win and we might look ourselves in the mirror. But I don't know, man. I mean, what if they run the ball 40 times? Like they can win this game 2410, right? You'd think.

Yeah. I think it's just to stay away. All right. Let's stay away from that one. I agree with you there. Yeah, that just feels like a nightmare. I'm checking to see if this line's the same because it's moved quite a bit. the Texans are nine and a half point favorites.

Still nine and a half. Yeah, to the Arizona Cardinals. And the best receiver in the league, Michael Wilson. What, I don't know, the side would be the Cardinals here, I guess. I guess. I mean, you're fading like Texas off a huge win, right? That's what you're doing here. And the offense was not great against Kansas City.

but it's it's Arizona just has not they play their thing was for a while they played close games their last five games they lost by 22 by 19 by 3 by 3 and then 4517

I don't know man the Cardinals feel like one of those teams that people think can come in the back door and just like close a game out not against Texas defense though against the Texans yeah I'm very good to pass this one I'm fine with pass one.

Because I have a thought on the next game. Okay. I'm curious about this one. Well, this game probably ends the season for the loser of this. The one of their seasons might already be dead. The Bengals are hosting the Ravens, and the Bengals are two and a half point home dogs. Yeah. Is it wrong to like the Ravens in this one?

Oh, interesting. Okay. Go ahead. Well, T. Higgins just ruled out, by the way, as we're talking. So no T. Higgins. T. Higgins. Shammar Stewart might be out as well.

the Ravens are not good. Like we're aware of that. They're not playing good football. But the Bengals provide an opportunity to get your offense back on track because they don't stop anybody. And if you can't do it to them, you can't do it against anybody.

Like this is like the final fan. And look, backing bad teams for final stands is probably not great. I use this line all the time. I think it's very true, right? If you have a must win game, you must not be very good. Right?

That's pretty good. Like, but, but this is now or never for the Ravens is now or never. Joe Burroughs talking about like vaguely retiring. Like it feels like the Bengals are, they're four and nine. Like that, that was their game last week. Yep. They had a chance to do that. They, they couldn't do it last week.

Um, and now you have a Ravens team that just, they just have to win. They just have to win. Now, Burroughs play well against Baltimore. Jamar Chase's play well against Baltimore. Those things are true. Also remember, the bagels embarrassed that my two weeks ago. It was 3214. And are we going to let that happen again to the Ravens?

And last week, too, the fourth down play that Mark Andrews dropped, he was thrown as eight flowers right behind us. And catches that ball. They win the game. And this number is, what, three and a half, four, something like that? So I'd be fine back in the Ravens here. don't know if this i'm assuming assume it's a huge public play but i think i think that's i think that's the right side in this game i don't i just i don't like where the bengals are at i mean

again their quarterback came out i was like i you know this whole thing about like i might oh by the way according to our friends action network only 23 percent of bets are on the ravens yeah yeah i think i was going to i was going to say i think this is the sharp side um i just man i don't know i i i i i Two interesting trends. Burrow is an underdog. This is true of like every good quarterback. Like every good quarterback is excellent as an underdog. I just closed the tab that his record was in.

Burrow, control, find. Can't do it. He is 21 and 11 against spread as an underdog. And the other thing that's interesting is Lamar playing AFC North teams. He's five and nine against the spread playing an in an AFC North team. He already lost to. So I think that's kind of interesting. It's like if they get their number, then maybe it's easy to figure him out or whatever.

I agree though. The vibes on this bangle. I was on the bengals on this. And then like in the last few days, I've kind of wavered. Just because like, you know, the bengals, the bengals could just fall apart. Like this could just be the bottom falls out and burrow rest the rest of the season. Like that is super in play. Or it's just like burrow and chase just going for 300 yards, which is like what they do against Baltimore.

and this comes down to a field goal at the end. I'm kind of curious if this T. Higgins thing makes this get to three, in which case I would consider the Bengals way more. The biggest defense is allowing 6.3, 2 yards per play fourth most in Super Bowl era. But they've been better since Burroughs got back. Like when they played Baltimore, they got some really big stops. I don't. Yeah.

Lamar Jackson versus the last ranked team. Last whole he's played four games against them, but he played three. He was three and no completed a nearly eight percent of passes and then the one loss was to the Bengals two weeks ago. Yeah, it's like we saw it. There something is off with their offense like I know. Henry's not touching the ball. They're not distributing it to the right guys. They just paid Mark Andrews and he I feel like he hasn't like made a play for them all year. No. No. So I the Ravens before might be the side honestly. If we can get two and a half, I'd maybe still two and half. Yeah. I think we can put it as a maybe. maybe. All right. Are we going to play it all the next game? What do you think? The commandantes at the Giants. Giants are still two and a half point favorites. Mariotta in there. The commanders are

definitely the side and I refuse to do it. Daniel's hurt his elbow again. Is that what happened? I think yes. He aggravated it. It was fine. He just fell on it. Well, I know. I was watching. My take, I mean, I've watched every snap of his career. He looked a little timid. And that worried me a lot. Like he did not, the thing that's so special about him is he's like, you know, last year, it'd be like guys would like fly by them and look like they're going to kill him. And he could just stop and change direction. And he could find these little crevices.

And he seemed a little hesitant to do that. And that's like, that's what I think they were hoping to get out of his system by playing him. And instead it seems to have crept in. So I think what they did was they saw, you know, he could have played through whatever happened. And Quinn saw it was like, no, like, we're not putting you in there when you're not feeling comfortable. You're too, you're too important. I think this is one of those games that we're going to look at in April and be like, why the hell did whichever team won win this game? But I just, I don't know, at some point watch.

It does feel like a draft pick game, right? Like the loser gets a better draft pick. And no one's going to try to lose, but that's certainly the way it feels like. Yeah, this is definitely, I don't know. It's going to be ugly. Let's pass it. Let's do that. All right.

What do we got next year on deck? Well, we have a very big game. Why don't we take a break? Let's take a break. Come back and talk about the Kansas City Chiefs season on the line. Let's do it. All right, Matt, we're back to talk Chiefs charges. We had a text exchange about this game.

And you're welcome to read off the text if you would like. But the Chiefs are favored by five and a half of this game. They have lost four. our last five games and they haven't covered a single one of those and by the way they haven't been close to covering a single one of those games why are they covering this game dude they're gonna cover this game and i hate that it's five and a half now um i loved it that i think it was three and a half that it opens or maybe four and then it got up to four and a half i loved it there i still like it at five and a half it's going to be it's going to be tricky for them to do it but look man there's two there's

two things here. Well, you're, you're, if you had to bet aside on this, would you be taking the chargers? Yeah, if I had to. So here's, here's my thought. First of all, if the Chiefs win this game,

then they actually do have a chance. And I know that it seems like this, they're, they're kind of running out of outs in the deck. But if they win this game, next week they play the Titans, the Broncos game that they have on Christmas at home, is a huge game. We will love them if they have the chance to play a meaningful game there.

And then they play the Raiders to end the season. So if they went out, including three wins against their division, then they would sneak in probably over the Chargers, who have a little bit of a rougher schedule. And they go at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos. So I think they have to lose two of those for it to work out. So this is it. And it's a Chief's home game where the Chargers are coming off.

a nationally televised overtime win where Justin Herbert got sacked seven times was under pressure on 70% of his dropbacks, has a broken hand. And now he has to go into what, 10 degree weather with Kansas City's dynasty on the line and win a game. And I do not see that happening in any world. I just do not see the chiefs losing what a third game in a row with their season on the Frank and their fifth in the last six. I just don't see it. So call me crazy. I feel like this is the one where they get up kind of early.

The crowd gets into it. And this is one where they pull away. And it's like, can we get Justin Herbert out of this game? Like we got to compete for the playoffs. Like the chargers still have no running game. They have no running game. They have no protection. Their defense is fine.

But like the chiefs, the chiefs can move the ball on this team. They did in the first matchup. I just think this is the game for the Chiefs. How much has your hatred, Justin Herbert, play into this decision? My hatred, I mean, I respect him. This is, it's just, it's just perfect. Like, this is just going to line up perfectly with Justin Herbert,

where it's going to be like, well, his offensive line was injured, which is true. Oh, well, his hand was broken, which is true. And they're going to go from whatever they are, nine and five, to the out of the playoffs. Like, it's coming. And it's going to happen at this game. And he besmirched Laura Rutledge on the,

sideline Monday. By the way, did you see the unhinged tweets that people had about this defending Laura's honor? You saw it happen, right? I explained it. I did. Okay. So after games, national TV games, there are often those interviews we see, right, with

asylum reporter with a player or coach. Now, the way those most often work is there's a PR, right? The PR person is next to the quarterback, right? Matt. And the game ends. You know you've won. and the PR person brings you over to the ESPN or Fox or NBC, silent reporter,

you do the interview for 50 seconds and you leave, right? That's simply how it goes. In this situation, the game ended abruptly. The Chargers picked off a pass and overtime, and the game was over, immediately done. So Herbert goes on to the field. No PR person's near him, right? Because the game just ended.

Like, it just ended like when he, it seems the ball intercepted, Matt. The game is over. But there's no, like, no, no review. You know nothing. The game is over at that moment, which is rare, right? Most time the game is over, sort of have an idea and how that's going to end and who's won, who's lost.

So Herbert walks on the field, Laura Rutledge, doing her job. This is her job. There's not anything against Laura. Goes and grabs Herbert's arm to get him to do the interview. Herbert turns around and says, I just want to celebrate with my teammates. I'm not sure he knew it was Laura. I thought he thought it was someone else trying to grab him for an interview. You can see the Chargers PR person out in front of her.

Herbert like pointed him like this is like stop do the interview and does the interview he does it like perfectly normal interview Laura asked him two questions he answers the questions end of the interview and people were like how dare Justin Herbert besmirch Laura's honor and and blow her off and he's paid this amount of money he better do the interview he didn't interview Matt I it was so odd to me I bet you Laura was like LOL like it happens like that happens it's just like a it happens end of the game He's going to celebrate his teammates. You tapped him on the side of the arm, miscommunication for all of a second and a half. He did the interview.

I thought it was really weird how the internet was defending Laura's honor like she needed the internet to defend her when nothing actually happened. Both people were right in the way they felt in those two seconds. People like to fight for a cause that has no bearing at all on reality these days. Not just in Herbert's fault. Let him be. Let him be. Let everyone be. We're allowed to be human beings.

and not be able to understand what's happening in real time all the time immediately. Chiefs five and a half are you in? I hate a rooting for the Texans last week. I'm much rather rooting for the Chiefs. Let's get our karma back. The Chiefs, we turn our season around and the Chiefs turn our season around. We're putting it through the maybe. So you can beat me, but I'm passionate.

I don't like a lot left. So I do like this next game a lot. Like a lot. lot. Here we go, Jeff. It is Phillip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts are going to Seattle. Seahawks are favored appropriately by 13

and a half points. Is it Philip Rivers? Has it been announced? You can see here that I have like on my notebook. I can't even put it up there. Like I have like I put the maybes right on this side right? Yeah. Mabies and then this side is where I do the one two, three, four, five. I'm just going to put the one here. Seattle minus 13 a half. Yep. Just lock it in.

There you see. There we go. Everyone. It's locked in. Seattle, My, is 13.5th on the sheet. This is absolutely ludicrous, Matt. Willie Rivers is coming off the bench, 44 years old. He's absolutely going to start this week. There's no, he's not coming to the opposite to sit this week. He's just not. He's not leaving his family coming up as.

He hasn't played the game since 2020. So that's 21, 22, 23, 24. And the end of 25, okay? Nearly five years since he's last played an NFL game, Matt. And he, by the year, last year you played was the weird COVID year. It doesn't even count. Nothing that happened in that year actually mattered. It's ludicrous.

Oh, he runs the same offense that Shane Steichen runs it with his kids team. Okay. What does that matter? Like, so now he's going to go on the road to potentially the best events the NFL, hasn't played in five years. what are you going to do? What do you plan on doing in this game that's going to help you? A, Seattle knows quick passes, check.

Look, you have Philip Rivers stand back there for seven seconds on a playoffshire pass? No chance. Oh, they're going to want to run the football. Your law has become so predictable when you have a 44-year-old who can't move in the pocket. So give me the biggest fate of Philip Rivers of all time. Give me Seattle minus 13. Look, there's four, five games this week with double-digit favorites. There's one of them is going to cover.

And Seattle right now is covering all these games, Matt. They're blowing out the bad teams. They're doing what they have to do. Next week on Thursday, they play the Rams again. We'll find out more about what they are as far as a Super Bowl contender. We play the Rams on Thursday. But for right now, all they're doing is beating. They didn't even play well last week.

You won 37 to 9. The Vikings 26 to nothing. Now, they're not as good at home. I get that. But they beat the Cardinals by 22. And the Carlos had a real, a real quarterback show up in that game. So I, Seattle minus 13 a half is just, is already in. It's done.

Yeah. Sam Darnold as a touchdown or more favorite is undefeated. He's 11 and 0 straight up, which is just a really interesting stat and 9 and 2 against the spread. Seattle's won six games by over this number by 14 plus. And their last two were by 28 and 26. And meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor has not had a hundred. hundred yard rushing game since on November 9th, that Berlin game where he went crazy. I think that the story to me here, this Anthony Richardson thing is one of the weirdest things.

He's not hurt. They just put him on injured reserve. So I have a friend who's a doctor. And I asked him if I could if I could like use him as a source for this. But he did. So he had it. I don't know if people even know what happens. He was warming up.

And he had one of those resistance bands. to do like a shoulder thing and it popped them in the eye, which is a horrific thing. Like I didn't even, that's like new fear unlocked. Like holy hell, I didn't. That's like a final destination thing. So then it breaks his orbital bone, which like how tense was this band by the way? Crazy. So he does get surgery.

But this was like two months ago. I mean, this was a really long time ago. And he's just like not even in the conversation to come back. I don't believe he's on IR for the rest of the season. There's been just like a lot of you and I have a little bit of a thing with like the Colts getting a lot of like media kind of protection and love. Like Chris Ballard always gets praised. Like this sauce gardener thing is going to be a total disaster and no one's going to blame him for it. This Anthony Richardson thing.

This is a guy who was drafted what third, fourth or something like that like two years ago. And he's just not even like they're going to play Philip Rivers instead of. figure out a way to get this guy on the field. Like that is the organizational catastrophe right there. They have completely mishandled this quarterback situation. And now they're doing something that I think is legitimately irresponsible. It's crazy that they're putting Phillip Rivers out there. And I think the media again is like, oh, it's fun.

Like he's he's coaching his kids team. He's a grandfather now. Like look Joe Flacco. Like that was fun. It's like Joe Flacco was out of the league for, I think a year, maybe not even a full year. And he came back and like he's, also younger. Philip Rivers is in the Hall of Fame conversation today because he's been out of the league so long. And everyone's like, this is fun. Like, this is not fun. This is actually

kind of scary. Like, it's actually kind of scary that this guy is going to be back there against Leonard Williams and the Seattle defensive front that's been killing people all year. Okay. I just think this is insane. I think this is absolutely insane. This is the same organization that brought in Jeff Saturday a few years ago. And we just forget, like this organization deserves to be absolutely grilled for this. Okay. So Seattle to score a defensive touchdown is like plus 360, which is insane.

Insane. Like I just put another game. Cardinals, Texans, okay? Plus 425 plus 450 for a defense and special teams. Okay. So it's both. Eagles, Eagles Raiders. plus 425 plus 500.

This is an insanely low number. Plus 360. Bengals Ravens plus 475 plus 500. I mean, that's fair. It should even be less. Yeah. Okay. Looking for any offensive crazy props.

We, uh, it's, it's ludicrous. It's insane. It's irresponsible. So we have one that we love. So we're in the books there. Titans Niners.

Do we have anything on this one? No. Okay. We're definitely not taking the Niners. Lions Rams. Rans heard by six. This number and strike you as big, right? What's going on with Devante Adams?

Because that, I think, is a really key. This was at six and a half yesterday. It's been mostly six, though, for the week, right? I think. I think so. Why is it six, though? Why is it not like four? I like the Rams here.

So do I. I think I'm not afraid of laying the big number. I get it like the you don't want to go against golf and Campbell is underdogs. I get that. I get you don't want them as big underdogs. I just, I don't know. I don't think these teams are all that close. The lions too are just coming off of like this massive output of points.

on a nationally televised game against Dallas, who I think, you know, that's the worst kind of matchup for them. Sean McVeague, 16 and 3 in December against the spread. They've lost two games straight to this Lions team. Like, I do feel like they're kind of going to flip it. I just think that they're way better. Like the secondary issues for the lions with all the injuries,

maybe they get Joseph back this week, but like they still have a lot of people down against this Rams team that like No Joseph's not back he had a set back with his knee Okay great so like so Arnold's out he's out Like they're gonna be on backups on backups trying to guard Nakua and Adams um I just think this this is lining up for the Rams man

It just it's it's kind of a feeling more than like a great set of analysis But like this just feels like a possible ass whipping to me The Vegas is telling you that these two teams that we think are relatively close Are not close at all Yeah that's usually when you need to listen. I'm curious. Yeah, no,

and everyone's on the Lions too. 79% of bets on the Lions. Yeah. Oh, let's do, you know, I think I'm going to put the Rams in like the yeses already.

Let's do that. We're getting a good number here. It's come down. Seattle and in Los Angeles, a yes. Are we going to have a yes on the next game, though? Can I curious your thoughts on this one?

Oh, God, no. We can't. Okay. I'm removing this from contention. The Panthers at the Saints. The Saints are two and a half point dogs at home. They are obviously to the side.

And I can't. not do it. They beat him a month ago, 177 in Carolina, which is a weird result for the season. Tyler Shuck might be good. I don't know. I don't know. He's playing better, but we're going to skip this and get to, yeah, I mean, look, this is the biggest Panthers game in a long time.

You win this game. You go up by a full game on Tampa Bay with two against the Panthers have Tampa twice in Seattle. So it's tough, tough finish out here, but you got to win this game. Like you have to win this game. They're off a buy. Like, you got to win this game. No, no, no.

They're off a buy, right? They didn't play last week. I mean, I'm correct on that. So they, this is a must win game for a team that really hasn't had must win games in a long time. Yeah. And Bryce Young is a road favorite. Never happened. Like.

Really? Yeah. I mean. Wow. I'm not surprising. Yeah. But I mean, this Saints team like is playing. better.

I just, I don't know, man. I don't, I don't, I don't want to trust either of these teams. We have too many other, too many other things we like, I think. And two really interesting games that I've, I've gone back and forth on all weeks. The Sunday night game is the Vikings coming off of a shutout win, catching five and a half in Dallas, Dallas with a little bit of an extended rest. It looks like C.D. Lamb is going to be back. This was at six.

It came down because I think there is the sharp side. definitely Minnesota here. But do you want to play nine catching six and catching almost a touchdown in Dallas? I do not. We also skipped the game, by the way. We did?

Yeah, in the 425 slates. Oh, well, let's go back. Packers, Broncos. Oh, Packers Broncos. Probably the best game of the week. Yeah, you can't skip that one. Yeah, let's not skip that one. Definitely not skip that one.

The line there's two and a half. Two and a half. Where is it on my draft games? Yeah, plus two and a half. Denver catching two and a half. Okay. At home. So this one fascinates me, Matt, because at first blush, you're like Denver.

You get two and a half at home. Of course you would take Denver. But why are they getting two and a half? I mean, they're telling you this game, neutral side is Packers favored by six, five and a half? I mean, are they? I just I don't When I watch the Packers play

I've said this many times this year I don't watch them play Who do you who do you fear in offense? Who are you like I gotta stop that guy in offense? Yeah I mean it's just an abundance thing man Like they just have so many ways they can win Like Kristen Watson coming back and being this good Has been surprising

He's been consistent for once like you know Two weeks with 80 plus yards and touchdown in a row great um jacobs is jacobs gonna play it looks he was questionable we i it's yeah um broncos this season fourth quarter comebacks five one score wins nine game winning field goals four balkos are five and o in games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter in 2025 it's it's insane and like the rest of the league i think if you if that's that it's like completely the opposite they're also like Look at their last month plus. They beat the Raiders in that goofy game.

They beat the commanders on the last second two point conversion miss. They beat the Chiefs by three in a wacky game. They beat the Raiders by three and the Texans by three. This is just, I think this is like at some point this is going to crash down. And I think the Packers are a way better team. I even think defensively they might be playing just as well as Denver. Denver's defense is just like not been as robust. You can't really rush the passer though.

That's my concern. Like, who cares? It's Bo Nix. Worth noting Malifler, 21 and 4 in December. This to me is just like the Rams game, where it's like, Vegas is telling you the answer. And everybody, everybody who's done this for any amount of time is going to look at this and be like, Denver is the one seed, or going for the one seed in the AFC and they're catching points at home. Like, why wouldn't we take them? Vegas is telling you the right side here.

I like, I mean, I would be fine on Green Bay. Everyone we know links Green Bay too. You want to know, you want to know, we got a Raybon Green Bay Money Line Wager. Yeah, moneyline is tasty. Let's do. He's the same as us, Matt. He's just had it the same. So Green Bay minus 2.5.

And there might even be some better numbers here as we go down the list and try to figure out where we're at right now. There's a, there's a, no, it's only one, too. We're not going to do that right now. but worth noting that all the money is on Denver again. So a lot of sides we're picking are the like the side with the you should be on, I think. So yeah, I don't want to exclude that game because I think we had a thought in that one. Yeah, I'm glad you caught it. I got nothing for Vikings Cowboys as far as I think I'm the total is in play here.

The Cowboys defense is Fugazi. I've told you guys this. I didn't, you know, people are all the Quinn Williams trade. I'm like, have you seen the numbers? Like, what do you mean the Quinn Williams trade? They allow 28 to the chiefs. They allowed 44 the line. I didn't mean Quinn Williams' trade.

It didn't mean anything. But JJ McCarthy, I mean, just absolutely not. Just no chance I'm going to Jane McCarthy. So I think we skipped this game. Do we have anything for the night game? I've just ran every trend in my head forever. It's the dolphins, resurgent dolphins catching three in Pittsburgh. So you have to pick a trend here.

It's do you like going with Tua, who is, let's see, Owens five straight up and one in four against the spread in under 40 degrees, two and seven under 50 in a Pittsburgh game that is projected to be a 20 degree game on Monday. Or do you want to take Mike Tomlin and this is the most classic Mike Tomlin loss. Classic coming off of a win where now you're in the driver's seat and everything's open up for you and Baltimore is probably going to win and all they need to do is just beat the dolphins at home where they're favored and they fall in their face. It's like one of them is going to seem obvious. Which one is it? The Cedars losing. Yeah, I kind of feel like that too.

But I'm not better at the dolphins. No, because it just feels like they can just hand it off to A. Chan 500 times and win. And this T.J. Watt thing, he, hope he's okay. Went to the hospital yesterday. That was crazy. Oh, okay. So I think this is another needling accident, dry needleing accident. The one of the punctured Tyrod Taylor's lung?

Really? Yeah, I think that's what it is. So, like, what happened there? They were, what needle could be on your chest? No, they're dry, they're dry needling like, like they're dry needling like muscles in his chest. And it went, it went too deep in his lung. Jesus. Is that like acupuncture?

Is that what that is? Yeah. That's what happened to Tyraud Taylor. Yeah, I remember that. Yeah. That's what I think happened here. That's my best guess is that they were dry needling him. They went too deep and they punctured his lung.

Jesus. That's my guess. So scary. Or from the back, maybe. probably from the front. They're probably doing like, you know, his pack or, I mean, they could be doing his back and it just went too deep and it just got as long. That's my guess of what happened.

If I had to take a guess on what happened. It's some scary shit. Which, by the way, that, you know, took Tyro Taylor out for a while. So we'll see what happens with what. We obviously hope he's okay here. All right, Matt. So Seattle and Los Angeles are in. Okay.

Yep. We consider Buffalo. Oh, yeah. Cleveland. Mm-hmm. I'm going to throw Baltimore out. Yep. Kansas City and Green Bay.

So we have, we have, we have, we have, I think we really like Green Bay, right? I like Green Bay. You love Buffalo, right? I love Kansas City. Kansas City and, okay. I don't, Cleveland, Buffalo and Green Bay, I'm happy with any of them. I mean, his deal. Just our record is so bad right now that this is inconsequential.

to the rest of our season. No, it's not. We got to go 5 and 0-1s. We want to root for Josh Allen to cover the spread and win, basically, or do you want to root for Shudor's standards to sort of get by and get a cover for us? Easy question. Bills by 1.5. I love this.

We have five favorites. Jesus Christ. Seattle minus 13.5, Rams minus 6, Green Bay minus 2.5. KC. minus 5.5. Baltimore, I mean, Buffalo should say minus 1.5. We didn't even consider. Oh, we only consider one dog this week, which is Cleveland.

Hey, Jeff. This is five and no. We do need five and no. Hopefully people have made money wudgering against us this year. You got bowl picks for us? I do actually, if you want them. So, here we go. Well, this weekend Army Navy plays.

I like first quarter under seven to half. That's Sammy P. I do in the show. It gave that out. I want to get that in there. I like that one a lot. So Army Navy this week, first quarter under seven and a half. I mean, if you can get a 10.5, excuse me, a 10, I should say on Boise State on Saturday night.

There's a bowl game, by the way, Boise State Washington Saturday night. I like the 10 points there. A couple other spots that I think are worth taking a peek at. So in bowl season, you really want to focus, in my opinion, on fading teams with coaches that leave. Okay? So with that in mind, a couple spots. Louisville minus 8.5 against Toledo. Their coach has gone to Yukon.

Again, like when they leave, they take players with them, how much focus is there? This number has moved a lot. But I took San Diego State at plus six. It's now at plus three against North Texas. North Texas lost their conference championship game. Their coach left. Their quarterback is probably going to leave two. There's numbers at six.

I think it closes at pick up. I think people are going to hammer San Diego State as it keeps going. So a couple spots to look at for bowl. I like Oregon to cover against James Madison as well on Saturday. I love it. All right. Funny, J.M.U. Twitter account. They've had some good laughs.

Can I tell you my, uh, the quick reason, my last, my last Vegas story? Please. So I was playing blackjack around 11 in the morning, uh, with a blue duck colleague who happened to be in Vegas the same weekend for the UFC fight. Uh, I am this person's boss. And we were playing, you know, we're just hanging out, good time. We, in Vegas, noon. And we're playing blackjack and next to us sits a undoubted lady of the night.

Oh. A certified lady of the night. And she is betting lots of money, lots of money just ripping out bets, playing all the stupid little side bets. and she's losing money very rapidly. But she is, I've never seen anyone ever be able to predict cards the way she could. And she was not counting. She was, she was a sorcerer. She would be like, she would just like point at the table and be like four and a four would come out.

Like just madness. And I'm looking at my buddy and I'm just like, what is going on here? The last time, she loses an insane amount of money quite rapidly. I think she has about $200 on the table for a hand. It's our last $200. The dealer's showing an ace. So they do that thing where they go insurance, you know, where they ask around if you want to insure your cards.

And she just, you never do correct? What's that? You never insure your cards. You know, you shouldn't. You could take, if you have blackjack, you can take even money, which is a good play. So there's an ace showing. She's got $200 some bucks on the table at like a $15 table, by the way. And she sees the ace and just walks away from the table.

she's like he's got it and we're like what are you talking about like he might he might not and she just disappears and the dealer checks and he does have black check it was the most insane thing i've ever seen she was she wearing with those spy glasses no she was wearing no glasses and like she was barely awake like she by herself yes it was insane she saw the ace and just left with all of her chips still on the table just walked away and she was correct wow but okay by liby of the night. There's two choices here. Either like insanely hot or like or the opposite where it's like to someone who just lives to gamble in Vegas. Which one was it? Definitely not A. Okay. Also consider it was 11 in the morning and this was clearly like the end of the this was like cool it's 5 p.m. somewhere like that kind

of vibe. Wow. I've never seen it. She just said she just she didn't even say by. She just walked. I've I've never seen anything like it in my life. I love it so much. Vegas gives you. I know you love that. There's so much. The people watching is just so good. It's the best part, man.

I was like, I can't believe I met this person. Best of luck to her. What do you think she's doing right now? He's probably playing blackjack. Probably guessing the cards. Good for her. Man, I'll probably be back in Vegas.

in the summer again for big time media day but you know i'll go a whole year without going to Vegas last year went three times it's it's a lot to go to Vegas yeah it's far again playing a playing a contest um any last words Matt any thoughts on Barry Weiss recently they're gonna leave that for a different podcast I think I'm all said I think once we hit our sorcerer prostitute we don't have to uh very much Indiana Senate redistricting I literally wrote on mine. I was like, remember to talk about the sorcerer, the source for...

I love it so much. I was curious if you had any thoughts on Indiana's failed gerrymandering. No? No, we'll skip that one too. Yeah, we can skip that one. Okay. All right, guys. We back on Tuesday with another recap show with Gabe.

Oh, Gabe's back from... We have to talk about how New York went. Yeah. I'm curious how it went. He's trying to make this podcast a ton of money I've been told. That was his goal. That was his goal in... in uh wherever i went new york city all right guys uh we back on uh monday excuse me tuesday enjoy

the games this weekend talk to you guys then you buddy