Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - East Divisions Player Props and Team Totals

Episode Date: August 18, 2023

Geoff is back with Matt to continue bringing you the best futures on every team in the league, and this week the boys are taking a deep dive into the NFC and AFC East. Be sure to rate, comment, and follow the pod if you enjoyed, and check out @geoffschwartz on Twitter and Geoff Schwartz on Youtube for live video shows, plus a recorded video version of this episode.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome in to Jeff Schwartz's Smarter Than You. It is August 17th. I am Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. We continue on our series previewing the NFL division, the favorite thing we do all season. We're on Twitter live as well and on YouTube now. So you catch us all over the place. Catch us on obviously your favorite podcasting platform, your favorite audio listening platform. Please leave a review if possible. We like hearing the feedback for this podcast. We've done two of these so far.

We're going to do the East divisions today, the NFC and the AFC East, and we'll finish next week with the South. And I'm going to include Matt's favorite, college football. We'll do that next week. I will give you one thing very quickly. Utah's quarterback situation bad against Florida week one, Matt. I'm already like, I'm on this already. It's in my mind.

Just pay attention to that. Nonetheless, let's get back to NFL very quickly. Matt, how are you doing, buddy? I'm good. That's sort of like our week one 49ers Steelers play, which I just laid down in Vegas last weekend. Good. I bet the Steelers plus three, my first bet of the season,

to cover in week one against the Niners, who also don't have a quarterback. I like the way you think. I love it. The Niners quarterback thing is so interesting. We'll get to that with Wes, obviously, next week. I saw something tweeted about today. It's pretty crazy, right? Like, they're not even giving Trey Lance a chance. They spent three first-round picks on the guy,

and they're like, yeah, not even a chance. Now, Brock Purdy obviously is better, but I can't remember a situation where they just didn't give him a chance. Like, they're not giving him a chance to even win the job. He's been injured, obviously, which hasn't helped. But they're like, yeah, we're out on the guy we traded three draft picks for. I think that's all the number. I think Dan Orlovsky put it out there.

He's only thrown 440 passes in college in the NFL that's it his entire career uh he doesn't have a chance to be good it's it would be a very fast write-off if they were to say that they're done with him but like if he sucks like just move on like just do it but I i i heard some speculation i think one of the pff guys was talking about well they're going to trade him in the middle of the season like who wants him if he's not good for kyle shanahan like this guy sucks and they can just call it a miss like it's uh it's kind of crazy but we'll see what happens there it's also kind of alarming if you're a niners fan uh purdy is not good in camp, right? Everything I've seen has been like Purdy

threw like three picks on the first day. He's not all the way back yet. We'll get there next week, but I think the 49ers could be in for a rude awakening this year. Almost like he's the seventh round pick who was not expected to be any good. It's weird how that works out. How many wagers did you make in Vegas?

I made a bunch of NFL wagers. I can go through them. We were there for a UFC fight, so I ended up betting pretty much that full card. And thanks to our friend Megan Levy for tickets to that. So we had a very bulletproof strategy for betting this, Jeff. So we were there. It was in the Apex, which is like a pretty intimate crowd there's only like 200 people there and uh we my cousin and i were there and we just like missed the first four we were oh for four on the first floor i was like oh my god

what this is a disaster we're never gonna get out of this and then what we decided to do was during the walkouts just watch the walkouts and see who looked like they were going to win the fight and bet that. And it won every single time. Every time we were like, like that song better, a little bit cocky. I like Cub Swanson in this one. And every single time it worked, I feel like we might be onto something. That's how we have to wager on just the way we feel about something. We just need to watch the Jets run out of the tunnel and see how we feel about something feel we don't know the jets run out of the tunnel and see how we feel about them on a given day i don't know it was there was something to it man sometimes i think the lesson is like maybe you've got to trust your eyes once in a while and just think like hey maybe

this actually what i'm seeing actually makes sense yeah we'll get to the jets in a second we're gonna start with the nfc east here uh matt's favorite team in this division but we'll talk about here is a reminder for those who are new to this. Here's what we do, right? We go through every team and we're going to preview it loosely, but from a gambling perspective, a wagering perspective, we're going to go through, talk about the win totals, if they're going to make the playoffs and the favorite props we like. We'll do that for all eight teams. We're roughly going to spend a thousand dollars for each division. Anything over that, we'll kind of piece together.

We're going to spend a total of $10,000 over the eight divisions. And we're waging a lot more than usual. Excuse me, a lot more wagers than last season because we're betting every starting running back under this season. It's a season-long project. I think we're going to make a lot of money doing this. And it's also bleeding over into quarterbacks. We're taking the under for rushing for all these quarterbacks as well.

You know, injuries play a role in this, right? If you sit out a week or two, if you're out in week 17 or 18 because you've closed up the division and you're playoff seed and you're not playing, many reasons to bet the under. I know not as fun, but we're trying this out for the season. All right, Matt, let's get to the NFC East here. We go in order of best projected win total down to the bottom. It is the Eagles with 11.5 wins.

Yeah, you're actually getting a little value betting the over, plus 104. They are minus 400 to make the playoffs, plus 300 to miss. And you have to lay money, lay 115 for a division winner winner here can't imagine anybody's got uh tougher odds than that um are i i'm way in on this eagles team i don't see any reason that they would regress uh but i'm curious what you think well here's here's my concern about the eagles um is are you sure if a red solo cup are you like you just pounding are you just drinking day drinking right now this would be a this would from a red Solo cup? Are you just pounding? Are you just day drinking right now? Can you imagine? Did I say that correctly?

This would be a big Solo cup. It's a thermos because Daddy's still dragging a little at 1145. We've got to keep the coffee coming. I mean, I get it, but I'm at the beach with my family. There's a lot of beverages flowing here for the Schwartz family. The only thing that I – here's something I'll say. They have a new offensive coordinator and new defensive coordinator. Now, Eagles fans will argue the new defensive coordinator is something

that is preferred as they didn't like Gannon, which is funny because you like Gannon all season long until you play the Chiefs. And so there's a concern there. But offensively, right, Brian Johnson is going to be different than the Shane Steichen. I know they're going to try to run the same sort of things, but a different type of play caller.

And there was so much success last season in what Shane Steichen did now, obviously the Colts head coach. Is there any sort of slow start because of that? Their team, as you mentioned, very good. They return everyone offense minus the right guard, and that's Cam Jurgens most likely playing right guard. They have two Hall of Fame offensive linemen, plus Jordan Malata, young at left guard obviously with Dickerson.

But still, running back, okay, fine. They don't have Miles Sanders, whatever. DeAndre is in there. Defensively, again, really good. Jalen Carter looks incredible in the preseason so far. I think he'll be good on defense again. Brought back most of the secondary, added a couple pieces as well. They're a very good football team.

Are you taking the over here in their win total? I don't know if it's – I mean, I don't love the value, but I guess I probably would. I just don't think that – I don't see them getting worse anywhere, right? Like is Jalen Hurts going to get worse with another year? They don't have like some teams, like we'll get to the Giants, like Saquon Barkley misses six games. Their season's over.

Like I'm not exactly sure what player other than Hurts that is on the Eagles that if he missed time, they would fall apart. They're incredibly deep. They probably had the best defensive lineman in the league last year, and they added the best defensive lineman in the draft, who's apparently just wrecking people at camp already. And look, I just think they're also still young. You feel like they're kind of an older team.

They do have five starters over 30, but like you said, Jeff, at least three of them are in Hall of Fame conversations. I'd say Fletcher Cox is for sure um so i don't know i look you mentioned the coordinators going like i don't think it's a huge deal i mean this happens a lot where the team can kind of regress but i kind of feel like i mean the eagles played a ton of close games last year they won a lot of them they got out to these massive leads where they ended up just sort of coasting at the end of it. I feel like Nick Sirianni did not get enough credit for the work that he did

last year. So I actually think one interesting way to play that would be he's, his coach of the year odds are down. Like he's, let me see where he's at.'s a plus 3500 he's behind like brandon staley and shane steichen and demeco ryan's like he's way down there wait he's behind shane steichen yeah yeah i mean it's campbell's plus 850 he's the favorite then you go down there's like mcdaniel pet, Tomlin, Dennis Allen, Pete Carroll, Reich. Like you just keep going.

He's passed even like Belichick and Kyle Shanahan and all that stuff. So if they were to go. I think it's a good wager. Yeah, I think it's a good guard. I think, you know, if they were to go 13 and four or whatever, like I think he would get a lot of credit for not having that Super Bowl hangover. I don't know, man. I also just think like Hurts is that guy like I you just see it the way he carries himself and the way his teammates talk about him I just think this team is awesome and maybe even got

better this year yeah a couple Hurts related props that I like um so his rushing is at what do we say here it's at his rushing total is at 725.5. He rushed for 784 two years ago and 760 last year. And I only played 15 games in both of those seasons. So, obviously, if he plays a full 17 games, he probably goes over. But I think he will try to run less this season, Matt. And I think that it's a good wager as we continue to do these props and these unders.

I just think he's going to try to limit that. That's how he got hurt last year. He got hurt last season running the football. To me, it's sort of a break glass in case of an emergency type situation. We see this with Josh Allen most recently where they've taken some of the running away from him, but they still use it in big moments. And that feels like with Jalen Hur hurts what they would like to do is say hey look we know you can do this but let's try to to not do it in case unless we have to i don't feel great

about the wager i'm not gonna lie um his touchdown number is nine and a half for russian he's had 10 and 13 the last two years um so i i kind of bet the over for that, but the under for rushing, which I know sounds odd, but I think they'll use him again in those high-leverage situations, the red zone, third downs, things like that. Again, I don't feel great about it. I think that number's a pretty good number. But that's how I would play the Eagles is kind of the hurts,

under rushing, and maybe over touchdowns. Yeah, I can get down with that. I think you're right that they're going to try to reduce the amount of damage on him, but I also think, like, I'm really curious if somebody's going to figure out a way to sort of take away that one-yard QB sneak that seemed to be just unstoppable last year. Because if they were, I think it would completely change their offense. But it doesn't seem like there's

really a way to stop that unless they change the rules. Do you think that somebody can adjust to that, or do you think that'll just work this year? I think it's going to work this year. Just because it's impossible to scheme against? Yes. That's what I think. I'm looking for a certain number here. Wow. DeAndre Swift's rushing total is only 500 yards?

Yeah. That seems really low. Well, because they rotate so much. I feel like that's actually one we don't wager on. Yeah, that's really interesting. They have Rashad Penny as having a higher number, and that might be the way we zag, and we go under 600 for Rashad Penny who's uh who could get that in two games but also can never seem to stay healthy um I don't know like there's I think one thing we can keep in mind with the Eagles is like if we both believe in them there's a lot of these fun like make the playoff

parlays like for instance next week if we like the Chargers the Chargers and Eagles to make the playoff parlay is like, for instance, next week, if we like the Chargers, the Chargers and Eagles to make the playoffs is plus 100. So you're basically like doing the thing where you put the Eagles in is like that line of the parlay that you feel good about and bet the other side. There was also one that was, I'll bookmark for later. I won't spoil our conversation, but it featured three teams in this division to make the playoffs at a really, really good number. If it includes the commanders, if it includes the commanders or Gi division to make the playoffs at a really, really good number. If it includes the commanders,

if it includes the commanders or Giants, we have to have a discussion. So are we done with the Eagles? I put down Hertz for those rushing ones just for now. We can go back to them. I don't have a great feel for the Eagles on A.J. Brown or Swift numbers. The Penny one sounds interesting. Will you say 625?

It's 600, yeah. Yeah, I guess. I don't know. He's only been over that number once in his career. Yeah. Yeah, that feels like we could go under there if we have to with our running backs, so why not? There was also one that I kind of liked. Not enough to really put on the board but i was intrigued by dallas goddard um he was kind of the forgotten man last year and when he came in the numbers for both uh smith and brown kind of dipped uh i think that goddard is just sort of

like the forgotten like maybe third best tight end in the league. His reception number was like around 50. I just lost it, like around 56, 57. And, you know, if he's healthy, I think he would go way over that. If you have 57 and a half, I don't know. I don't feel like we have a great edge there. I think they're just going to be solid across the board. That would be a, that's right around his career.

58, 56, 55. Yeah. I don't feel like there's much edge there career, 58, 56, 55. Yeah. Yeah. I don't feel like there's much edge there, right? Yeah, I don't either. I was looking at him, but, you know, the number doesn't work. They're a team that a lot of people follow, a lot of fantasy guys. Like there's – you know, I'm not surprised there's not like a great market there.

But I do think the Seriani thing, it's a good zag. I love it. What about division win minus 115? It's a tough one to lay money on no yeah i agree because the next team is the cowboys everyone tells nine and a half the problem with the cowboys matt is they're untrustworthy you cannot trust them ever never like there's you just can't do it um every year i do this every year i say to to you guys, man, I'm in on the Cowboys. And every year they stab me right in the back, right? Every season. The Cowboys are a supremely talented football team. They have a lot of good football players. And they just can't be trusted.

I don't know what to say. I don't trust Mike McCarthy as the primary play caller now. We saw what happened in Green Bay, how stagnant that offense got with a Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Dak Prescott interception issues, not to worry about that. Look, guys, training camp, there are a lot of reasons why you might throw interceptions. One of them is you throw the ball after you would get sacked. You just kind of heave it up, which I've seen some of Dak's interceptions happen.

There was a headline, Matt. I looked it up because I wanted to make sure. In 2018, they said Patrick Mahomes is throwing too many interceptions at practice in training camp. He had 50 touchdowns that season. It doesn't matter as much, I think, as people make it out to be. But nonetheless, he threw a lot last year. It doesn't make you feel good if you're a Cowboys fan.

So I would not touch their total uh their wind total i would not touch much of the cowboys other than the stuff we have to do because we've committed to taking tony pollard under his rushing total of of um of uh 975.5 um i actually i'm like i can't bet on deuce fought overn over. We just can't do that. But I do think that the backup tends to have a better season for the Cowboys. Yeah. I like Deuce Vaughn, too.

He's looked great in the preseason. I agree. Yeah. Pollard's never carried the load. Everyone knows that. There's all these little things with Dallas that are kind of just flags um it just feels like too much despite you being burned by them like a little too much has gone right for them they the last two years they have the best turnover margin in the league by like 10 uh that seems like that's going to go down

uh their defense has been top two the last two years we'll talk about this with the jets in a minute like usually defenses they're not like offenses where it's like oh it's one you know consistent quarterback they're going to be in the top 10 all the time defenses tend to go up and down um they were the most penalized team in the league last year they have their two best offensive linemen are both over 30 with some real injury issues um my wife's my wife's here no my wife just walked in. She doesn't even know we're live. We're live on, we're live on Twitter and YouTube. There you go. There she is.

Oh, there she is. Okay. Continue, Matt. Sorry. She just likes to mess with me while I'm trying to, you know, we're making millions of dollars on this today. Okay. No, we're not.

Sorry, Matt. Continue. I was just concerned that you're laughing at at my Dalton Schultz take. She's asking if you had your baby yet, too. She's into it. No, have you had your baby yet? I love that. Not quite yet.

Not quite yet. No, not yet. Halloween. Halloween. Yeah. So, anyway. We completely derailed the Cowboys. It's perfect for the Cowboys, right?

Someone just completely derails the entire discussion about a team that we think is very up and down. So I'll reset us. I like Micah Parsons over his sack number of 12.5. They're 12.75. I don't understand why they do it that way. Because you can have a half a sack. That's why.

Micah Parsons, to me, is in the running for defensive player of the year. We can even wager on that if we want to. 13 sacks in year one, 13.5 sacks last season. He's going to move primarily to pass rusher now. I just wrote about this for Fox Sports.

He had like 177 snaps last season as an off-the-ball linebacker. After week 10, Matt, he only had 17. So he had like 177 snaps last season as an off-the-ball linebacker. After week 10, Matt, he only had 17. So he had like 160 before that. They've moved him to pass rusher immediately all the time. This season, this offseason, he went to work with Andrew Whitworth. He just called him up. Hey, Andrew, I need to get better.

Can I come work with you to pick your brain on how offensive linemen are going to work me, are going to set on me? How are we using your hand? So I think's ascension this year is going to just through the roof man like i'm on him for over sacks and i'd be okay with defensive player of the year as well i love it man he's uh we've i think we were in on him as defensive player of the year last year we did that in the middle of the season right yeah without his injury he probably would have gotten it um but he ended up slowing down um i love parsons i mean i the thing the other thing that's like sneaky on the radar with the uh with the cowboys right now is they kind of have no kicker

and that sounds kind of silly but like they cut brett maher he's he's on the broncos now apparently learned that today um and they've they've like they don't they they've had this guy in for kicker at all camp and they keep saying they're gonna bring competition and they can't find anyone so it just seems like that's just something to have on the radar like you you know that's not something you want if you're trying to make a super bowl run um also their last six weeks jeff they go seattle philly buffalo miami detroit and at washington that's a tough stretch down the down at the end i i don't like this this betting on this but i think we have to bring it up first coach fired mike mccarthy plus 600 is it possible like i know i did i unfortunately think we can make that wager

in about two teams we go to um but i uh yeah i i don't think it's happening in dallas during the season interesting they have an interest they have a they have kind of a bizarre start they go four out of six games or road games uh then a week seven by giants uh the cardinals that should be a win but the niners and chargers like i could just see like a blowout against kellen moore and the chargers in week six and jerry's like you're out um i don't know man i just feel like they have they're one of those teams i'm i think he kept chasing he kept jason gare for so many years. He's not fine McCarthy midseason. All right, so we have Parsons over and Pollard under. Anything else you like for the Cowboys?

Not really. I like CeeDee Lammel at this year, but so does everyone. His numbers were really high. Let me look up one more guy here. Brandon Cooks. He's getting a lot of buzz for like a comeback guy his his yardage total is 775 and a half last year he was in the 600 range uh with the texans i have a feeling he'll be open quite a bit this year um but that's kind of a high number i don't know i don't i don't feel

strongly about that no yeah um we have the giants about that. No. Yeah, right. We went to the Giants. Did we do Pollard under? Did you mention that? Yes. Pollard under, a 975 and a half. And then we did the Parsons over 12 and a half sacks as we got derailed by my wife walking in here. And then my daughter walks in here. No one ever wants to talk to me when I'm, like, not working.

And as soon as I start working, the door just flies open. For those who are new here,. I'm at, I'm at Fripp Island. My family's here. I'm still working through it. But it's like, it's crazy. When we have four other, five other adults in the house right now. So four plus me, so five total. And my daughter came in and asked me, should you get a root beer? Go ask the other four adults in the house. It mom, who's also here But interrupt me, ask me for root beer While we're It's ridiculous I wish I had root beer in this thing, that sounds delicious I'm not a root beer guy, but it has no caffeine

So I guess kids can, it works for them New York Giants futures I feel like They owe us a lot of money for last season And Because we kept betting them under and it never happened. So I'm going right back to the well with the unders, man. I don't buy Daniel Jones.

I don't buy a team that won a bunch of close games last season. We know that there is a regression from year to year in one score games right um look at the season last year they beat um let's see here they beat the tennessee titans by one the carolina panthers by three the bears by eight the packers by five with um uh yeah and then they beat baltimore by four jacksonville by six that's before jacksonville got good right they beat Baltimore by four, Jacksonville by six. That's before Jacksonville got good, right? They beat – then the back half of the season, loss, loss, tie, loss, loss, loss. They beat Washington by eight, beat Houston by six. It's like, come on, man.

Like, I get it that they're better at wide receiver right now because they added more talent there. But what is Daniel Jones? Like, that's my issue, right? You just paid him a bunch of money for mediocre to maybe at times, like, okay quarterback play. I mean, his best season last year, he threw for 3,200 yards and 15 touchdowns. Like, is that what we're getting this year?

15 touchdowns. Like, is that what we're getting this year? So I'm out on them, man. I'll take their under. And the games they lost, by the way, 7 points, 14 points, 13 points, 8, 500 to Philly, 3 to Minnesota, and then the last week of the season didn't even matter because no one was playing that game. But, like, they either won close or lost by a good amount, Matt. I don't expect them to win a bunch of close games again this season.

Yeah, that's a little concerning. And they were two and seven against teams with a winning record last season when they played them, which, you know, Brian D'Abel obviously gets the lion's share of the credit for why they were successful last year. He was great last year. He should. And on Mina Kime's podcast, she was talking about how they –

like Daniel Jones never got touched when he ran, right? Like the first like three yards he was untouched. That was his average. It was like the highest in the league of like yards before contact. So Dable just did an awesome job of just letting him go and like i feel like dable's borderline in that like mcveigh shanahan territory where it's like the offense has such a high floor that it's hard to bet against them at all um the only problem for them really

is like we talked about the eagles and regression like there is a lot of regression possible because Saquon, Saquon was the leading target. He got the most targets last year in the passing game. The running game ran through him. He was unbelievable. He stayed healthy the whole season, which hasn't happened in quite a while.

If anything were to happen to him, including this like weird contract situation that he's got going on. Like if he were to just decide not to play a little, if he were to get injured, God forbid in the middle of the season, a lot could go wrong with this team um they also they have a really brutal schedule at the end of the year uh includes dallas san francisco seattle miami buffalo and they have the eagles uh twice in the last three weeks which is killer um they're an underdog in 10 of their games,

which is kind of bizarre for a team that's projected to go about 500, which I think is a sign. So their number, though, Jeff, they're at 7.5 now. And I do feel like everybody kind of has an opinion about that. 8.5 would be great to go under 9, but 7.5, I just – I don't know if I could go under six and I think I'm six and 11. no I I actually kind of like the over seven and a half weirdly at uh plus 100. um just because I think like the table will be able to figure something out but I I don't know man this is this is a really tough team because I actually like I wanted to come in

here and be blazing hot that I didn't like them but like they have just like a really high floor they're really well coached they have some good players up front they don't have a star receiver but they have a bunch of guys like they just have like six or seven receivers now last year they didn't have anybody and now you look down the depth chart and you're like all right you just need like a number one and sometimes you can get those guys in the middle of the season you know know? So I think that they're going to be, they're just, they're kind of a stay away from me other than the Barkley under. Barkley and Daniel Jones-Rusher. Yeah, but it's the Cowboys and Giants to me could go in a lot of different ways.

And I feel like this division is going to be kind of the same as last year, except the Eagles will be good. And the rest of the other three teams will kind of all be around somewhere in the middle. And maybe with the Cowboys dropping a game or two. But it's a really tough division to read. It's a tough team. I think that there are good in-season wager opportunity again,

like we did last year with some of the wagers for them. I did write down Barkley under rushing a thousand uh and five then daniel jones under 550.5 do you like that one um he has 708 yards rushing last year yeah i kind of feel like the rushing thing is like the most sustainable part of this team so i'm a little i would maybe go over that to be honest well i'm not i'm not doing that all right i don't think i i think because i just i just think that if they're going to have more – have better wide receivers, which they definitely have, they're going to pass the ball more.

And if Barkley goes down for any period of time, the Daniel Jones rushing goes down too because they're going to be way more focused on him rushing with Barkley being out. Yeah, that makes sense. I'll just put Barkley under. I'll just go Barkley under. We'll leave it at that with this team. This is the respect we have for Dable.

If this team were coached by pretty much anybody else, I don't think it would be a question we'd be going way under. Some of their upgrades even, like Darren Waller. We love Darren Waller. He's a great player. We need him to be out there for all 17 for the Giants to go back to the playoffs, you would think. I don't know.

It's a tough one for them this year. But I'm rooting for them despite having a predisposition to root against them. I think they're going to be good. Well, let's get to your favorite team, the Commanders, six and a half win total. Yes. I'll let you go first. So, yeah, I mean, I've thought about them a lot

for a couple of different reasons. What would you – do you remember what their record was last year? Seven and ten, eight and nine eight and nine so you do this professionally they were eight eight and one and most people when you ask them they're like they were five and twelve like they sucked they actually didn't suck they were in the playoff mix the whole time and had maybe the worst quarterback in the league maybe not definitely hit heineke we love heineke but like they had a pretty tough situation last year they didn't have uh brian robinson healthy all season they didn't have john dotson healthy for most of the season and they didn't have chase young for pretty much the entire season and when they did

have him he was not chase young um so if you're saying that they're going to be worse this year how i i genuinely don't know how they would be worse like the quarterback somehow like okay sam how if sam how sam how's worse okay well if they have sam how's worse there's joe go jacoby brissett who was like kind of around that 500 range too. The defense should be better. And their offense coordinator is Eric Biennemi. They really made a big upgrade there. But I got to tell you, man, most important thing about this team this year,

they're going to get their fans back. They're going to have home games. They haven't had home games for real in three seasons probably because there was literally like a boycott of buying tickets for this team because everyone hated the owner so much they're gonna have a sellout in week one like they're the fans are gonna be jacked up for once it's gonna be the first time in a while and i just think like if they went eight eight and one last year in the season where they played uh they played the chiefs they played the 49ers they played the super bowl champion eagles twice every team in the division that except

them won a playoff game last year and they went 8-8-1 with Taylor Heineke and they got better like so I don't necessarily think they're going to be a great I definitely don't think they're going to be a great team but I do think that of the teams that have a good high number to make the playoffs like plus 3-10 can they go can they go nine and eight like i kind of think they can uh so i would say yes playoffs plus 310 would be how i'd play this one wow um did not expect that not gonna lie i didn't either gotta be honest somehow they had to –

Tyler Heineke had to beg them to play him last season at all in the end of the year when the season was over. Because he's just not good enough. They begged Heineke for Wentz. And then they were – It was coaching malpractice at the end of the year. It actually was. How sad was that Wentz picture with his Eagles helmet,

his Commander's jersey, and his Colts shorts. Yikes, buddy. It was not great. It was not great. Okay. For them to... I do not understand unless Ron Rivera's

trying to preserve his job, the need to play Jacoby Brissett at all in this season. Because he's not your long-term solution, right? So, you should play Sam Howell the entire time. Win, lose, draw. If you do that, you're not making the playoffs.

So, you're basically wagering on to make the playoffs that Jacoby Brissett plays a majority of these games, right? So, you're writing Sam Howell off before he's played two games that's that's where you are he's a okay Matt we do this all the time you he's a fifth round quarterback am I correct on that okay cool take Brock Purdy was the seventh round quarterback that doesn't totally matter I I'm not saying I believe in Sam Howell too much. The Niners had what?

There were 7-3 when Jimmy G got hurt. It's not like they were 0-16 and Brock Purdy came in and let him a Super Bowl. I didn't like him coming out of college, and we have a first-time offense coordinator with a brand-new job. This is his own offense, not Andy Reid's offense anymore. I just don't buy Sam Howell. And maybe I'm wrong. We'll do the Washington playoff bet because we've been over this before.

Like, if you like something, I'm good with it. But Washington's in the worst position of anyone, Matt, which is too bad to have the first pick in the draft and really – excuse me, not bad enough to have the first pick in the draft and not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Because next year is the best crop of quarterbacks in a long time. Caleb Williams is legitimately a rock star. Drake May is legitimately a rock star. Now, of course, that's going to be 50-50,

but those guys have legitimate talent, and Washington's going to finish 8-9 and not make the playoffs and pick 15 again and not find a quarterback in the future. Yeah, I mean, that is probably the most likely scenario. I do think, though, weak NFC, that playing the – I think over 6.5 is also a decent way to play this, too. You're also getting plus money on that um because i think their defense is too good i go over six and a half because i go over six and a half that's an easier wager because you can go you can win seven games and not make the playoffs and we catch

this wager right yeah i just think like sam howell doesn't have to be good if sam how's the 20th best quarterback in the league they're massively improved on offense. Like that's where they were coming from last year. And we loved Heineke. He at least competed. I just think their defense is good, man. It is very good, yes. It's very good, very good up front.

Their offensive line is a big problem there. But I don't know. It's interesting that the Biennium thing, you would know better than I do. The fact that you're not feeling super confident in him in a new spot. I think that, in theory, that's the biggest addition they made.

How do you feel about all the reports coming out about him? About Ron volunteering that information himself. I think that was a Rivera thing more than a BNME thing, frankly. If you remember last year, Ron Rivera did the

oh, we could be eliminated from the playoffs tonight thing. I think Rivera just had a little too much to do off the field, the way that the organization was running. I think he kind of got a little sloppy in some of the head coach stuff um but we'll see man i gotta say last thing on this because we talked too long about a bad team but the enemy staked his reputation on this like this is it he's all in if they stink it's not because he didn't know who the quarterback was like they

knew who it was they knew they couldn't't make a generational trade for Aaron Rodgers because of the new owners, right? He knew that this offensive line was what it was. He knew who these running backs and receivers were. He took this job. So he's either not the guy, or if he's the guy, then this offense should be really good. We'll see.

Yeah. All right, so to finish the division, we have Sirianni, of the year plus 3500 we have a bunch of rushing unders right hertz under penny under pollard under barkley under brian robinson under okay the running back unders we have i like jaylen hertz um over the nine and a half russian touchdowns i think that continues just those high leverage situations man i think he's getting the end zone that's part of their offense now. Parsons over 12 and a half sacks.

I think he has 16 to 18 sacks this season. And then the commanders over six and a half wins. I like that one. I came into this not liking the commanders. You convinced me. Maybe it's your homerism, but you convinced me on the commanders there. I'm never high on them. Like every year I'm like, they suck.

They're not going to be good. Oh, I do have a player prop i like okay from from those commandantes i think this is an easy one uh johan dodson over 50 and a half catches uh okay they're gonna open up this one brown one i like this one a lot i'm not necessarily going to have the table for it because of my bias. John Dotson, yeah. So last year, 50.5 receptions. I do feel like this one's very likely to hit.

Last year, he got targeted over 60 times. He only had 35 catches last year. But again, Taylor Heineke not necessarily winging the ball out the way Howell can. Say what you want about Howell not necessarily winging the ball out the way how can uh you say what you want about ali can throw the ball deep um he missed a lot of games last year he was injured i i think he's he's awesome like i think johan dodson is uh is really going to surprise people this year and that's a really low number 50 catches that's a three game we can do that yeah i'm with you there all right buddy uh afc east maybe the most fascinating

division in all of football i don't i don't have like a ton of takes on this division because i think it's it's very hard to predict who's gonna win who's gonna lose but buffalo is at 10 and a half wins uh over is juiced a little bit uh division win is plus 120 for buffalo any hot buffalo takes you got i mean why wouldn't this team be just as good as last year i mean i guess that people are a little bit tired of them kind of not doing so great in the playoffs i don't want to say choke but uh yeah they're they're i can people love them it's they're over still 10 and a half over under still 10 and a half it's minus 150 to go over maybe the play is to go over an 11 and a half plus 140 maybe um but you know i just i don't i i don't i think we can save time here like they're they're awesome like they have a

great coach they have a great quarterback they should maybe get better on offense like we'll see what james Cook looks like. Dave Davis was hurt all last year. We were out on him, but I feel like he could be better this year. Damian Harris was a nice upgrade. And their defense is just good. They're just good every year. I guess the reason that their win total is a little bit low, I guess,

is because the division is just awesome. But I don't know, man. I have a hard time saying anything other than that the bills are going to be really good and uh i know that's not the most entertaining take of all time i'm trying to see if we can find a better number for their over where is a one match network app oh boy that's a great aren't great numbers. So over, where's that over here? The over is pretty juiced, 150.

There's a... Yeah, we could bump up their number. 140 here. So what do you, over what? What do you have? We could do over 11.5. I mean, it's not – I've seen better value than that. But if we like Buffalo, we could do that. I don't know, man.

Like should we just like – should we just like bet Josh Allen for MVP? Like should we just do any of that stuff? I mean, I don't love that. No, I wouldn't do that. I think Bill's over. What did you have, 11.5? You said at what? Plus 150.

I'm good with that, I think. Look, I think that we know what they are. You're going to win a lot of games. The division's tougher, so maybe you think that, hey, they don't have a pushover against the Jets anymore or whatnot. Look, I know we don't like spending our money this way, but DeMar Hamlin, who would come back player of the year, is minus 285.

Like, I mean, I don't know how you don't wager on that. All he's got to do is be on the roster this season. Like, that's it, Matt. If he's on the roster yeah he's been a comeback player of the year like hands down I don't know if we want to put any extra like weight like wait till like that's actually lower than it's been minus minus uh 285 it's been like minus 400 um maybe he's not making the roster but like I don't really he's going to win this award and then i i don't think they can even cut him like he can you imagine if they cut him like after trini campbell yeah there's no way

if he plays if he plays one snap i think he's got it i don't know if we should put like i but it's like i i looked at this too um and i agree agree the number has gone down quite a bit, but who could win it besides him? Legitimately, who's the… Well, the other option is Lamar Jackson. To me, it's Lamar Jackson. Why? He quit last season. They're not going to give it to him. I feel like Cooper Cup could get it.

If he were to play the full season and like win the triple crown again russell wilson i think is a decent idea like i see a damian plus 5 000 lamar jackson that's so funny i feel like the stigma on him is he quit because he wanted a better contract like i i don't stafford maybe but it's like smith won't come back part of the year by just because he wasn't actually physically playing. It wasn't good enough to play, but that, that award has changed a lot now. Yeah. But what's the mark? What would, what are the more Jackson come back from like an injury that no one could report on and then quit because he wanted to, he didn't want to get worse and not get the contract. Fair enough. But I'm putting to more Hamlin in here here minus 285 we can figure out what we're putting on that but i mean that's that's just you're just making money on that i feel like no matter what you put on that put 300 bucks to win

to win 100 right like it is what 285 to win 100 i guess what it is i i think so it's fine we can tie up our money in it it's like what are the chances that that would come back to bite us um can tie up our money in it it's like what are the chances that that would come back to bite us um yeah i don't know i don't know who else could make could do it like odell beckham could do it i guess plus one five hundred yeah but if odell if odell plays that well then lamar jackson has a chance to win this award god i i just i don't see that at all i feel i've never really seen you that the Baltimore hatred come out until right now. It's like a very – I like Baltimore this year. I just think that – I just don't think that anyone's like, man, Lamar Jackson,

like what a comeback from boycotting the last two games of the year so you get a better contract. Like, wow. Like I would bet him to win MVP before I did this one. But anyway, we're talking about the Bills. But there are no – there's no number for any of the Bills running backs, right, for under right now? Oh, James Cook, under 675.5.

We have to do that, right? I guess. That's a low number. We did it for Penny, though. Yeah, I think we have to. Coach of the Year, Sean McDermott is the last. Todd Bowles is plus 6,000.

He's 32nd. Andy Reed's plus 5,000. Kind of interesting. Mike McCarthy and Sean McDermott are plus 4 000 it's just like that's just disrespectful like sean mcdermott it's like they win this division by a lot uh but i don't think he's gonna get it anyway it's just kind of bizarre all right we're um we're we're wasting time let's move on to the jets all right

so what the people came for Jeff uh if we don't have an opinion on the Jets uh we're in the wrong business what uh did you watch hard knocks this weekend I have not watched our notes this week um really good first 10 minutes with a magician just just get get excited their offensive line is a legit disaster it is not good right now um Dwayne Brown coming back fixes a lot of that because Makai Becton should be playing right tackle. He's playing left tackle right now. Robert Sully even came out and said,

yeah, he's not even ready to play a game yet. I don't even know what that means. And that's why they're not letting him run with the ones yet. Inside the offensive line, a little concerns there, but then right tackle is struggling now. The second and third string right tackle is in there. It's a big concern, man. Like even Rodgers talking about it, it's a legit problem.

The Diamond Cook thing doesn't matter at all to me. Defensively, going to be good. But their schedule, man, is rough. It is a hard schedule. And a couple ways to play this for me are this. And pull the schedule to make sure I have it correct. So, I mean, they start out with Buffalo, Dallas, New England, who I think will be a lot better.

We'll look at them in a second. Kansas City and Philly in week six. Are they going three and three in that stretch? Or two and four? Or one and five? What are they doing? Two and four probably. Right.

Great question. Maybe. And then do we bet the over, do we bet the over win total then? Right now I would bet him no playoffs plus one 10. Yeah. I just, so the AFC, if you're not winning your division,

you're what winning 11 games to get, to be the wild card team, to be the fifth seed? I mean, you've got to win 10 games to be the sixth and seventh seed. You've got to win a lot of football games. They have a tough division, man. They have a real – like a tough schedule, tough division, a lot of moving parts, bad offensive line. Rodgers looks good. I'll give him that.

But we haven't seen him in a game in this new offense yet. Plus, Nathaniel Hackett has not been a good offense corner anywhere he's been. Now, Rodgers obviously makes anyone really good, so that might negate some of that concern I have. But I don't know, Matt. I'm not high on the Jets this year. I think I'm with you, man.

There's so many red flags with this team and one of them is you mentioned the slow starts like aaron rogers has been one of the best quarterbacks of all time if he does have one trademark it's kind of a slow start right like from the relaxed days but even last year they started slow um i have a feeling it's just going to take these guys a little bit of time to gel and the schedule does not allow them that time um the other thing that's concerning about them we talked about this a bit with the cow is defenses tend to regress like the year before the defenses are much more variable than offenses two years ago the jets had the had the last ranked defense last year they had the last-ranked defense. Last year, they had the

first-ranked defense. They're probably neither. They're probably somewhere in the middle. We've also seen this with rookie corners who do super well. Trayvon Diggs is an example. He kind of came back onto earth a little bit last year. But the last two winners to win defensive rookie of the year, cornerback, Marshawn Limore and marcus peters their best years were their rookie years right like that's that's seemed to be how it's gone where a guy's been you know unbelievable to start his career and then he's kind of you know falling back to earth a little corners just to have it's it's a tough position it requires a lot of things to go well so you'd think the defense is going to be a little bit worse than last year they're also the healthiest defense last year so that you know that unfortunately probably means that's not going to happen again this year

um but i you know i they're they're a really good team and rogers like if rogers is rogers this team could win the super bowl 100 i think it's in play that they can win the super bowl but if rogers is closer to the rogers we saw last year you know you we talked this sort of happened when russell wilson went to denver where we were like wow look at all the weapons he has and it's like yeah dalvin cook nice signing but beyond garrett wilson it's like we you know cory davis is a nice player like lazard and cob and hardman like okay you know breeze hall we're not sure what he is you mentioned the offensive line like there's a lot of things that could go wrong here and we still don't know who robert sala is right we still don't know if he's a good coach

we have reason to believe that the players at least fight when he's there last year like they were they were really fun team that stayed in every game despite all the quarterback problems but i don't know they're flying really close to the sun jeff and i i have a feeling that fading them is probably the way to play this for now. Yeah. I'm with you. I like all those takes. One thing I do like, well, are we hitting running backs for them or just there's so much up in the air right now for them to bet the running backs? I can look up the numbers while you're talking.

I think it's like 625, I think. But Garrett Wilson's receiving number this season is $1,150.5. He had $1,100 last season. Under. You're like under this year? Yeah. Interesting. I guess you're right.

I mean, I just think like, I don't know. He was awesome last year. So you're basically saying that he's like a top five receiver. That's probably where he ends up. I think so in this offense right i mean what you don't think they're gonna move the ball like that i think that i don't know i guess i mean 15 i mean that's a lot of your you you go ahead i guess last year there was Alan Lazard led him with 788. I'm fine laying off of that, but I think that Wilson could have that type of season.

If you think he could have that type of season, then we should explore him in most receiving yards. He's plus 1,800 for most receiving yards. Devontae Adams was at 1500 in 2001 in 2000 he was at 13 almost 1400 what you said 2001 you mean 2010 or 2011. but davante adams is like one of the best receivers ever like if you think gary wilson's that level let's my case is that my case is that rogers will force feed he force feeds his number one wide receiver and that's his number one receiver what if uh what if you bet him plus 1800 to win to have the most receiving yards in the league if you think that he's going to be like a 1,500-yard guy.

No, it's 1,100 yards, buddy. I don't think it's going to be that crazy. All right, let's pass on that. But I'm fine with over. He's a nice player. I'm into that. Do you like Rodgers to go over 4,000 passing yards? Minus 105. I don't think I do.

Do you? Probably not. Maybe. like rogers to go over 4 000 passing yards minus 105 do you probably not uh maybe i don't know that's not that that's not that crazy when's the last time he didn't do i guess he didn't do that last year i feel like the jets are gonna be a good are gonna be a good like in-season wager team like yeah as you kind of figure things out we could bet him over the win total at some point uh put him no playoffs at plus 110 for now we'll kind of go over these as we continue to to go down the list are we done with the jets i think we're done with the jets um let's talk about uh my favorite team in this in the entire nfl the dolphins let's talk about them okay so luckily their left tackle avoided injury today threw on arm stick

got hurt at practice but he looks like he's gonna be fine um are you what do you how in are you on the dolphins extremely i love them as i think they're i think the thing with the dolphins last year uh in the first eight games the two had completed and started they were eight no and then he was hurt for throughout the season obviously that's a concern for this year but they were incredible last season like their offense was amazing their defense was a little bit of an issue but they got the best defensive coordinator in the league they got vic fangio like vic fangio is there jaylen ramsey's hurt okay but you look across the rest of that defense and you're like huh i didn't know that they had all these dudes like

they still have xavian howard obviously uh they have great pass rushers up front uh they have great secondary their offensive line like you know obviously you mentioned armstead today hopefully he's fine but they are like they are really really good and i think that they you know their schedule isn't doesn't seem to be as bad as some of the other teams in their division they obviously they do get philly and the rest of the nfc east and afc west but like they were nine and eight last year in a season where their starting quarterback was like pretty much compromised for the second half of the season. And I think that they have such a high, crazy high four and a crazy high ceiling.

Like if they were, I think they could win the division. I think they are. I think they could like make a legitimate deep run in the playoffs. If two is healthy. I'm way in on this team. I think they're, I think they're going to be awesome.

I'm with you. So I'm, I'm over nine and a half wins for them. I think they're going to be awesome. I'm with you. So I'm over 9.5 wins for them. I think they're over 9.5 wins. And I don't – the thing about it is I think it's hard to wager on a bunch of the props because of Tua's injury concerns, right? I mean, he's got to show me about the season. What I did highlight was Tyreek Hill's – it's 1,305 receiving yards.

He only went over that number one time in Kansas City. And he was obviously at 1,700 last season. Do you think he goes back over that number this year? Or do you think he stays below that number? I do, man. I definitely do. I think there's a chance he leads the league in receiving. He's plus 900 for that.

I think there's a very good chance that he does something like that. I think Tua, if Tua stays on the field, I think you could really get some value out of his numbers he's let me see that he was uh about even money to he's he's plus 110 to have 4 000 passing yards um i think that one could could definitely hit like you at 3600 last year in 13 games uh i i don't know man i i think this team to win to win the division is a nice way to get some extra money and uh they were plus what three 300 ish um and i think we could even bet them to go a little bit deeper in the playoffs. I don't know if I love division win here because we're betting the win total over for the season. Matt, I feel like we're doubling up there, right?

We're doubling up there. We like Buffalo to win over 11 and a half games. Right? We wager on them to win over 11 and a half games. Like we, right. That's what we wager on them when over 11 and a half games. So the Dolphins have to win 13 games in the division. It's possible, I guess we, but we bet they're over nine and a half already. Right.

I kind of just want to stick with one of those two wagers. Yeah, that's fine. I would just go over nine and a half wins. I'm cool with that. How about Tyree kill for Offensive Player of the Year? That would be plus 2,000. Okay. That wasn't a tough sell.

Basically, the thought being like, he's the perfect offensive player. We could buy out of this at some point i'm not we're that didn't bother me but by this i mean you just wager other people we have not had anyone there yet you're absolutely right um all right can i get to my patriots takes because i'm i think let's go this is the team i feel the least confident in. So go ahead. So their win total is seven and a half. Matt Jones has been a starter for two seasons. They won 10 games and won eight games last season. They had Joe Judge and Matt Patricia running the offense last season.

They have a real offensive coordinator now, Bill O'Brien, like a real coach. Last time they had a real coach and offensive coordinator, they won 10 games, Matt. Like, what are we doing here? This is Bill Belichick. He coached a defense. They ended last season. At the end of the season, they were the number one in DBOA on defense for the last five, six weeks of the season.

They added one of the best corners in the draft in Christian Gonzalez, so their defense is going to be outstanding this season. It's a matter of the offense. And again, they have a real coordinator this year, Bill O'Brien. For whatever you think about Bill O'Brien as the Texans coach, they've won a lot of football games. They won the division four out of six years in Houston.

Terrible general manager. He's not doing that now. He just went to Alabama. Bryce Young won the Heisman with him as his offensive coordinator. Like, the Duke can coach offense. And you have an offensive line that's good enough. You had a Juju Schuster. Look, their weapons aren't the best, but they have enough tight ends.

They have enough offensive line. They're going to be coached up well. They play a tough division. I get that. But they're going to win a lot of football games this season. To me, it does not make sense their number to beat 7.5. Belichick has not been that bad in his

career outside of the Cam Newton year, where I think they won seven or eight games, but there's a COVID year, and there was a season when Cam Newton was shot, and there was some injury concerns there. So this season, look, they play Philly. That's tough, right? Philly, Miami, the Jets.

But they also get the Saints. They also get the Commanders. They get the Colts this year. They get the Giants. They have the Broncos. They have some very winnable games on their schedule. I don't know, man. I'm all in the over here.

It's the only wager I like about New England but like come on eight and nine is a very reasonable record for them this season so it's interesting I mean we basically then say that every team other than the Jets could probably go over so that's and the Jets I don't think we're saying we'd love the under either so I mean you look it's interesting I i had kind of written this team off um but i agree it's like i think they're probably gonna go eight and nine or better um you know for all the reasons you said it's not like their defense is going to be terrible

um so then why not plus 250 to make the playoffs also like that's basically saying if they win if they go over their win total by one and a half games, then they probably make it. The only problem is if the team were in the NFC, this outlook would be completely different. The AFC, it's like so many teams that are going to be in the mix,

but they play all of them. They play the AFC West and they play the AFC East. That's why the division win for me is hard to do for them, right? Because we saw last year and most years that the best quarterback wins every division. And so to say Mac Jones wins the division with Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen in it makes no sense to me. But they can be 8-9 and not make the playoffs and we cash our wager.

Yeah, I'm cool with that. I mean, yeah. We're basically saying that Buffalo goes, has 12 wins, Miami has 10, New England has 8, and the Jets have 8 or 9. That's not – or 9 or 10. That's not out of the realm, I think. No, I think that's probably right. That's probably right.

I do think – I wonder – there's this one bet that DraftKings has. Hold on. It's, there's, you can bet like the actual standings of the division. Let me see, division standings. Or exact order. Here we go. AFC East. We could do Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots.

That's plus 500. That's kind of fun. I just feel like we didn't have enough spiciness in this episode. I feel like we need a little more spice. It's because I'm not home. I'm not in my normal setup. That's not – remember last year we did that wager to win 10-plus games, Packers, Bills, Chiefs, plus 600, and the Packers won seven?

Those don't hit, Matt. By the way, we took Nick Sirianni to win Coach of the Year in this episode, and we have a plus 2,000 Tyreek Hill Offensive Player of the Year, a Nick Sirianni plus 3,500 Coach of the Year. We have some spicy wagers in here. Yeah, that's pretty good I like it I'm I can live I can look in the mirror and say that um yeah there's what about the running back unders what about unders for remandre Stevenson and and Zeke Elliott vermondre Stevenson's only in the 800s like I feel like remandre is like

Stevenson's only in the 800s. I feel like Ramondre is like... I feel like he's definitely going to hit over 800. I'm going... Zeke Elliott's for sure over. I mean, under, I mean. Yeah, oh, yeah. I'll take whatever number that is. I'll go under there, 100%.

Yeah. I think maybe the way to play the... If the Jets ones are out there... Are the Jets ones out there or no? I see a Dalvin Cook is like 600-ish. I think Brees Hall would probably be the one to go under. Because I just think with Brees Hall, they're going to protect him. I think they waited this long because they were like,

he could do it. He seems close enough. There's no Hall wager yet. Dalvin Cook is at 625.5. We can add that later. but that's like seven games of starting like i i i have a i don't think that's i don't think that's wise um i like zeke under i who who is even the dolphins top running back that they have on here like i i have no one that uh that we could maybe squeeze some value out of that one. Remember we took Miles Gaskins over three touchdowns

and he got two and a half, like two one year? Was that last year? I think that's every year. That's how these work. They always come down to the last week. It's crazy. It's why they build towers out there. Shlemiels like us that do these shows.

Schlemiels. So we have Bills over 11.5 wins. DeMar Hamlin to win comeback player of the year minus 285. James Cook under 675.5. Jets no playoffs. You want to keep that or not? I think it's a good number. You said we didn't have spicy enough takes.

There we go. Yeah, plus 110. All right, I like that. Garrett Wilson over 1150 and a half. I'm going to go a small wager on that one. I think I like that one. But you're right about he kind of would have to put him in the stratosphere of being one of the better. It's possible that he does end the season that way. Miami over 9.5 wins.

I love that one. Hill over 1,300.5 receiving yards. Small sprinkle Hill offensive player of the year, then over for Pat's 7.5, which is plus 116, by the way. I mean, come on. Are the Patriots going 7-10 this season, Matt? I don't think so. I think that's a really smart way to play that.

I like it. I really do. People are so out on Mac Jones, but you're right. And then Zeke Elliott under whatever. Under four yards, doesn't matter. But 725.5. Like, come on. Get out of here with that.

Love that. Anything else? I don't know, man. You want to tell us about your vacation real quick, or should we sign off? I mean, this is my, my only vacation take is this. And thank you for saying, if you hear an hour already, you like me, you can hear my vacation take, is that

we're at the beach, and I very much enjoy being with my family and I enjoy the company we're with, but beach trips do not excite me because you basically lug all your shit down to another house and then live in this other house for a week and go to the beach every day. And every time I go to the beach, the kids are miserable. There's sand everywhere. to the beach, the kids are miserable. There's sand everywhere. It's also a thousand degrees. I'm just sweating nonstop. It's just a lot of noise. And just, I just, I'm not a fan of it. Maybe that's just, I'm spoiled, but it doesn't, these trips don't excite me, Matt. It doesn't excite me to bring all my shit to the beach and live the exact same way. I have three radio shows

this week and I'm doing the podcast. Like I'm living the exact same life. I live at home, just not in my house. I think if you're this, if you're, if you're this against the beach, you should stop going every week.

How many, how many beach trips have you had this summer? 40? Like every week, man. No, this is no. No, this is no. I've been to I like going to a resort

where I went to I did go to Hawaii a couple weeks ago. We did Hawaii. This year I've gone to Mexico twice. Once with Meredith, once with my kids for spring break. Then I went to Hawaii.

I don't mind being at the beach. I just don't like it with kids. It's not that much fun. Meredith, once with my kids for spring break. And then I went to Hawaii and then I went to, I don't mind like being at the beach. I don't, I just don't like it with kids. It's not that much fun. You'll, you'll, you're a kid one day. You'll get, you'll understand in about five years what this feels like. It's just a nonstop, just, it's just madness at all times. Yeah.

And we're going to Barbados. We just planned that trip for April for spring break again. So I like the idea of the beach, but having to like play in the sand and like drag your shit out there and just roaring sweat all times of the day. It was 108 the other day here. No one feels sorry for me. I get it. But all right. Next week, AFC, NFC West. No one feels sorry for me I get it Alright, next week

AFC, NFC West Some of our favorite divisions The Niners don't have a quarterback Oh yeah I might as well just wait for all the Chiefs Chiefs have a wide receiving problem We'll talk about that next week But yeah

Glad to be here Last thing, we haven't talked i guess i mean we were talking about this i guess uh no cultural to cover right now pac-12 is done the only headline in nfl this week was the michael or story do you have any any thoughts on the michael or story where uh the two e's were um instead of adopting him they put him in a, is it conservatorship? The thing Britney Spears famously has been going through. What was your take on this story? Can't say I have an opinion worth airing to the millions currently watching

live after the vacation take. I will say that it's one of the saddest things i've read in quite a while it touched a lot of people i think that movie which like looking back now like doesn't necessarily feel as good as it did at the time uh in terms of the message uh i don't know it's it's tough one because a lot of people i think had an attachment to that story and you know took something out of it that that actually you know was beneficial so um i don't know man hope that it hope it resolves well i it's hard to say who you're rooting for but obviously i think you know most of us believe it you know or i would think or or um but i i don't know did you did you play with him were you ever a teammate of his i know so i didn't hear the answer no i wasn't um you know

watching that movie i read the book too one of the few times in life i've read a book and watched the movie um people always hinted at this right that there was something um going on where the twoies looked at him as their meal ticket and i'm not sure that's quite the case after reading this. I think that there was something that they maybe realized that later, right? But there was always that undercurrent of like, is this really as good as the stories we think it is? Because a lot of times there's a saying, Matt, that we say in football is it's never as good as you think

and never as bad as you think right when you go watch film of like a great block you watch it you're like oh it's not as good as i thought it was or there's a terrible play like ah it's not as bad right that's sort of the way in life right and like so the story to me it fits in that mode right where like it's it's not as good as you thought it was you're like oh, Oh, but also to maybe, I don't know. I, it sucks. I hate it.

Um, did not train with, did not play with, or I should say, um, I hope they figure it out. It's, uh,

it, it really, it, it just stinks. Like, imagine you have a life where you thought these parents adopted you for the right reasons. It turns out they didn't crush you.

It'd be awful. It's really terrible. Yeah. Rooting for him real quick. Also, did you see that Dion Sanders news today that he, he got mad at his team for not participating in a fight that was happening in a practice.

He got mad at the players who did not get involved and did not start to fight their teammates. Interesting zag by Coach Prime. What do we think? He also said the other day that he doesn't care if the players like each other. He just cares if they win. It's a very, I don't know, man. They're going to be 3-9 this year, and people are going to be like, what happened?

Like, well, they just weren't good enough. Like, what do you expect? Watch, the only thing I'll say about Colorado, whenever they put out clips of anyone in practice, most of the skill guys, watch the offensive defensive lines. It's not great. It's not great. It's not great.

You can have Travis Hunter as 3.5. Travis Hunter is a fantastic talent. He's really good. Shazer Sanders might be great. We'll find out. But that's it. They don't have any dudes. They have 70 new players, man. 70.

That's not USC. USC brought over a Heisman winner. They had three or four of their offensive linemen already there. The guy who led the Nation Sacks last season was on their team. So just the Colorado hype is out of control, dude. It's wild. Three and a half is not what I was expecting. I was expecting like six and a half.

No, three and a half. That tells you what people think. No. I took the under, by the way. I already bet the under. So, all right. We're done. I know.

I bet the under. 3-9, dude. Their schedule is TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, USC, Oregon to start their first five games. I think it's Oregon, actually, then USC. Doesn't matter. They're going to start one and four. I mean, this is what it is. So, all right, guys.

Hope you enjoyed the podcast. We're back next week. I'll be back home in a normal setup. It'll sound, I would imagine, more normal. We'll be back to some spicy takes throughout this process. Talk to you guys in a week. Take care, everybody. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh,