Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - East Divisions Team Totals and Player Props

Episode Date: August 11, 2022

Matt Ford makes his triumphant return to the Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You podcast to kick off his and Geoff's yearly tradition of looking at every team's win totals as well as the tastiest preseason props. This year they're starting with the NFC and AFC East. Much to Matt and Producer Hank's dismay, Geoff is fading their Commanders this season, as well as the Dolphins, Daniel Jones, and... Bill Belichick? Tune in for the rest of Geoff and Matt's picks, and be sure to follow the podcast so you can be alerted when the South divisions drop next week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 11th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz smarter than you powered by the varsity podcast network we've done it guys matt ford is back on the show the first time since the nfl mock draft show i believe buddy since since near the end of april but if matt is on the show guys that is because gambling has arrived and it has arrived in a big way it is time to start previewing the nfl season via the futures the wager market gambling we were going to go through all of the divisions in the nfl we're going to go through two in episodes we're going to get you going once a week with this type of show heading up until the start of the season and by that time we'll have you hopefully some winning wagers.

And then we will do as we do every week. We'll gamble on football. We'll give you guys our picks. Matt, how you doing, buddy? We made a lot of money last year. We bet $10,000. We won $4,000. So we got back $14,000, buddy.

I'm ready to do this again. Let's do it, Jeff. It's so good to be back. It's so good to be talking it's so good to be talking football we've got producer Hank back in the mix and the sound of my voice do you hear this sound you pull out hundreds there buddy that's the sound of my four or five dollar bills in my wallet rubbing together because we're here to make you money. And no better way to come back on the show, Jeff.

Thanks for having me. So this is the way this is going to work. Same thing we did last year. And again, we spent $10,000 over the four episodes. We ended up plus $4,700 last year. Would have been more if Dak Prescott hit comeback player of the year. Would have been more, you know, had Tom Brady won MVP. But, you know, both things didn't happen.

We were waiting for those to maybe hit or maybe not at that time. Just didn't happen, but we still won money, which we'll take. So the way this is going to work is we're going to do, like I said, two divisions per episode. We're starting with the NFC and AFC East this week. We have $1,000 per division.

We can make as many wins as we want. We have to agree on the amount and anything. Win totals, make the playoffs, not make the playoffs, play our props. And then we have $2,000 left over to spend however we want it. Again, $8,000 for divisions. We're spending two today. And then leftover last year, we threw that money on many different things. And it's a good way to get ready for the season.

Just a general idea of where a team's win expectations are, some of the prop numbers. Matt thrives in this situation, especially with some of the player prop numbers. It's not my forte. Matt is ready to go with those. And without further ado, Matt, should we start with our favorite wager each and every season? The New York Giants and Saquon Barkley under rushing yards. Should we start there, buddy? I actually like the touchdowns more this year, but I'll go under on anything.

I mean, why don't we just start in the NFC East and we can do the Giants and maybe just start there. Okay, let's start with the NFC East and let's do the Giants first. I'm not even sure we're following exactly the order that's on this sheet. It doesn't matter to me. I want to go because this is one we joke about this this all year matt the saquon barkley under we've done it three straight years uh i think actually yeah three straight years his first year at 1300 yards he did really well his first year um and things kind of fell apart we've taken the under each of the past three seasons it has been very profitable for us so with the giants are we going with to start with with the saquon parkley under uh 900.5

rushing yards it doesn't feel that low it's really low i like better i mean we're fading saquon no matter what draft kings actually doesn't have a number a few books do we're not sponsored by the way so if you're out of a sports book sponsor this podcast one number i did find was seven and a half touchdowns. And that feels like the easiest under of all time. Are we sure the Giants are going to score seven and a half touchdowns all season? Like, that feels like a pretty much a slam dunk, I think. He's had six, he's had eight touchdowns the last three years.

Now, he didn't play in 2020 very much, only two games. But those were limited in those contests. In the last year, he played in 13 games had two touchdowns the 2019 and 13 games again at six touchdowns this is this is seven and a half rushing touchdowns right rushing touchdowns only this does not yeah this does not count just overall touchdowns because you know i think there's a possibility in this offense remember brian dable came over from buffalo in this this offense, you know, there's a possibility that there's a lot of passing touchdowns just a result of what this team kind of wants to be.

I will caution everyone on some of Saquon's stuff. I think their offensive line this year is much better in New York. You look what Evan Neal's done so far in training. There's been a lot of like, look at Saquon Barkley highlights. And I just see the Giants offensive line doing really good things. But last year in Buffalo, right? Devin Singletary last year had seven rushing touchdowns. That was the high for Buffalo last year.

Zach Moss had four. Matt Breida had one. Isaiah McKenzie had one. Then Josh Allen had a couple sprinkled in there. So this is not an offense that really utilizes the back in that area. Now, they don't have Josh Allen, obviously. They have Daniel Jones. But if you want to go touchdowns here matt i am perfectly okay starting off with a saquon

barkley under touchdown uh prop is there how much would you like to wager on that sir before we lock it in there's there is a combined over and under for uh receiving and rushing yards combined that's at 1300 and that feels pretty high um i don't like to bet on a guy to get injured but like that's essentially what we're doing with barkley in the past is like the guy just falls apart and and everyone loves him yeah but i think you know 1300 yards total could be the way to play the yardage i think he could play a full season have a good season and still hit that under and seven and a half touchdowns yeah so his rookie season he had over 2 000 all-purpose yards the next year he had uh 1400 my only concern about this though is is why i think i'm staying away from the is i feel like

he gets he can get a lot of easy check down yardage yeah and in blowout games that doesn't worry me about taking that where the the russian touchdowns if we're not going to be very good they won't be in a situation to get a lot of those anyways and they're gonna be passing from behind a bunch i i like the the russian touchdowns um just better than maybe anything else all right so let's lock that in and then we can come back to maybe the math when we get through this thing if that works for you do you want to just stick on the giants in general yeah yeah yeah yeah let's do that first so they're over under is seven what uh if you had to just stick on the Giants in general? Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, let's do that first. So their over-under is seven. If you had to pick a side, where would you go? I'd go under.

But I feel like that's a good number for them. I don't feel like there's much of a kind of a side either way that I feel comfortable doing. I think that Daniel Jones is going to struggle. That's just kind of what he's been throughout his career. I don't know why it would change very much. And I just don't think this team right now, as they are, is ready to compete at a high level.

I think soon they can be. They're starting to build back up the roster. But I'm not a Daniel Jones believer, and I think that seven's about right. So I wouldn't go – I would not touch that one put it like that yeah i feel like it's a very respectful number for brian dable you know the giants have won seven games one time since 2013 and that's a long time where you were there in 14 and 15 won six games each yeah yeah the year after they won a bunch of games i'm sure those those that's a correlation causation question there but anyways

definitely is yes the uh the giants have been under their last five years that's the longest active street in the league i agree that they're improved on the offensive line but the problem is still going to be dable or i'm sorry it's still going to be daniel jones um and even if their offensive line is improved they're starting two rookies right so i just don't think that oh and also here's my favorite giant stat uh the giants are the only team in the nfl to not even have one week where they're over 500 in the last five years like they're going to need some time to really improve and everyone like everyone's just gonna say like well brian dable's gonna come in and just fix everything like this roster is screwed up they have the

most expensive wide receiver core in the league and they still drafted a wide receiver in what second or third round like even their strengths aren't strengths so i would lean to the under here um i don't think that they're really even incentivized to be that good this year like if daniel jones comes out kind of flat then what incentive is there for them to like push through run through the tape and like get a better record right they need the picks next year is going to be a great quarterback class so i think they're a pretty solid bet for the under okay let's let's mark down the under there and that's in that spot just to kind of make a note of that because i think that there's maybe one other giants wager i think think is pretty good. Let's hear it.

I'm seeing a passing yardage number for Dayone Jones at 3,650.5. 3,600 yards passing. 3,650.5. 3,650.5. He hasn't, in his career, his best season he's had only 3,027 yards. That means he needs to increase that by 650 yards essentially to hit this number in in this year and i i i don't see that matt i i don't i don't see that happening huh it's a pretty modest number it's only like 215 yards a game that's basically will

he play the whole season is basically what that bet is i think but he could also get benched and you know the guy has fumbled every single game of his career it's very possible that he gets benched yeah i just don't know who he would be benched for so let's do it out there i think that that's tyrod um i guess yeah i mean they have to find out what jones has if they bench him they can't go back you know what i mean so i feel like if they do that, then that's kind of the end of Jones, which is certainly possible. So maybe we stay away from that one. I mentioned we're going to take on Barkley.

There definitely could be a lot of just like late yardage, right? Like losing yardage. A great fantasy guy, right? Just a bunch of late yardage late in the game, garbage yardage that helps you out, but doesn't really help your cash wagers. And he's a free agent this year, right? Isn't that right, or is it next year? He's a free agent after the season, yes.

So it makes sense for all sides to run him into the ground. The Giants don't care if his career lasts and Saquon's gonna win a contract so no i could see him that's sort of one of the reasons i'm a little nervous but i still think the touchdowns thing is is smart like it's it's unlikely that he gets past that so let's let's keep saquon in there at uh under 7.5 touchdowns let's keep the giants for right now seven under seven wins and let's go to the Washington Commanders. Oh boy. Your favorite football team, unfortunately. Maybe. And Matt, I have a wager that is almost non-negotiable that we're going to do. And it's to not make the playoffs at minus 185.

Look guys, the report yesterday. Get the fuck out of here. The report yesterday, Matt, listen to me, buddy, buddy. The report yesterday was that they're not overly concerned about Carson Wentz's inaccuracy in practice. And it's like, yeah, they're not because that's who he is. He's fucking terrible. Matt, he's like the 27th best quarterback in the NFL. And now you guys fight your D-line coach?

Like in, you fight, okay, Matt, how many, are you telling me that the Eagles, Cowboys, and Commanders are making the playoffs this season? All three from that division? Because I think we feel very, I feel strong the Eagles are going to make it, the Cowboys are going to make it in the NFC. Are we telling the Commanders or Carson Wentz are making the playoffs?

Okay, well, there's two separate arguments you're making here. The first is that the Commanders might suck. I'm not necessarily out on that argument. The idea of laying minus 185 that they're going to miss the playoffs is an asinine bet, and we both know it. You're trolling me, right? Buddy, I laid minus 400 last year on Jacksonville to not make the playoffs, and I very much enjoyed cashing that ticket at the end of the season like the juice

to me is like what's the best case scenario that they win what 10 games 11 games like what how do they get to that number well do someone have to get like like how does it happen here's how but honestly the first part of it is the NFC's could suck that would not surprise me we'll get to the Eagles in a second I don't think so but sure i see them as a team going under their total really but here's the thing like i don't think washington's good let me just get that out of the way having said that when you picture their year last year would you say it was like a complete travesty meltdown of a season like i think if you ask most football fans what kind of season it was for washington they'd say a dumpster fire they were seven and ten and that was with losing their quarterback in the first half of the first game like they also lost chase young who played like like shit for most of the season they lost their

other pass rusher montez sweat they didn't have a number two receiver and they played the afc west the packers the bucks they played i mean the bills like they had a brutal schedule last year and this year they have a much easier schedule and last year they went seven and ten so i think like their offensive line was banged up antonio gibson was hurt all season still banged up in camp yeah they're still banged up their offensive line is still banged up in camp but by the way they were really good last year in terms of like how they were graded with a really bad quarterback and their number two receiver was adam humphries last season like they're gonna be better so i don't think that it's a stretch to say that their win total is going to improve it's also the third year with

rivera like the only problem with this team is other than carson wentz who stinks but is better than heineke the team is just it's just chaos all the time it's just like not a team that you want to bet on to overcome all the adversity that they cause themselves so right which is why you take no playoffs no but it's not worth laying it to me because the rest of this division is i i'm curious i you know i kind of assumed we'd do them last because you knew that i we would have a really good conversation about them but i just want because they're just next up on the sheet they're just next up on the sheet i'm just not a up on the sheet. I'm just not a buyer in Philly. And there's so many to me.

Dallas is just like one or two things could go wrong for Dallas and they're toast. Well, certainly. I mean, you can make the same case that you just made for Dallas. Like everything went kind of bad at certain points last year. They still won the division, right? Like they still were a playoff team that had a home playoff game. But let's get back to Washington real quick. So is there anything you like about Washington?

Any of these wagers here? I don't trust Wentz, so I can't really make, in my opinion, any wagers with most of their offense. Gibson's rushing number, I think, is interesting. They're probably going to want to run the football a lot this year just because of trying to make sure Wentz doesn't ruin the game for them that that feels like a way that we could you know play some sort of Washington wager I have one for you um the player prop for them and it's like probably the most public one but I do think this is kind

of using money and that's Terry McLaurin over a thousand and a half receiving yards so if you break that out if he plays every game that's uh 58 yards per game receiving his career average is 67 yards per game last year uh he got a third of the targets on the whole team now granted Curtis Samuel maybe will come back I have serious doubts about that I think this Jahan Dotson kid is going to be surprisingly good um but they're going to feed McLcclure in the ball they're paying him he sat over 900 yards in each of his three seasons where alex smith was by far his best quarterback by far i mean if you look at who he's caught passes from from duane askins the late duane askins so sad uh from colt mccoy to taylor heineke to logan thomas the tight end like he has caught passes from some weird guys

so if he got 17 games of Carson Wentz he should easily go over a thousand yards okay I'm good I'm good with playing that um oh man I think that the root for Carson Wentz no just root for Terry you're putting me in a bad you're putting me in a bad spot Gibson by the way is 825 yards rushing which just doesn't sound like a lot yeah for him the way, is 825 yards rushing, which does sound like a lot. Yeah, for him. The concern there is that they just have this committee, but that feels a little bit too low. They drafted a running back in the third

round, I think. But that still feels pretty good. He had 795 his first year and 10,000 last year, so the number's not that bad. Kind of splits the difference there a little bit. Always injured concerns with backs. I think taking a running back over is just, in general, kind of silly.

It's silly, yeah. We'll stay away from that. You know, Dotson, Rookie of the Year, Offense Rookie of the Year are just highly, just no, plus 2,000. Not going to happen. Washington concedes the fewest points in the NFC East, plus 300. I think that's going to be it. We're going gonna have a big disagreement on Philly by the way so good yeah so I think that's about right I mean there's a Wentz over 25.3 touchdowns with McLaren over 72.5 receptions for plus 275

that's not almost not bad it's bad. I really do think Terry, if, if healthy has a great season. So I'm in on him. You know, if you want to combine it with something else, I'm into it. No,

that's fine. I'm in, I'm in over there. I'm in with that. All right. Let's is, are the Eagles next in our sheet? Yes,

they are. So let's go to the Eagles. Okay. Sure. Their win total is nine and a half. I'm not comfortable with any wager, honestly, on the Eagles,

but I think they're a really good football team. I just don't know if Jalen Hurts is the guy, and that always worries me when it comes to whether or not a team is going to be good. But Matt, the things that are important to winning, they do really well. They're really good on the offensive-defensive line, right? Like, they make it that a priority to be really good in those units. You know, Hurts does enough with his legs and his ability to make plays outside of the pocket that win them enough football games, right? And obviously they were a playoff team last year.

And, you know, I doubted Nick Sirianni. I think a lot of us did. He obviously proved that he knows what he's doing. It just, it, I just worry about much of, because of Hurts. If Hurts doesn't play, doesn't really get better, then yeah, the nine and a half wins is kind of maybe yes or no. But if he's like he was last year, a tad bit better,

man, they're going to win 10, 10 or 11 games. Nick Sirianni. This is, this is a little bit too intuitive for my kind of arguments, but let me just put it this way. Doesn't Nick Sirianni give you like Matt Nagy vibes,

like Ben McAdoo vibes where he came in the first year and everyone was like this guy's gonna be terrible and then he was good and then everyone was like well he must be awesome and then the next year Ben McAdoo got fired and Matt Nagy slid and then was ultimately fired probably like a year too late I just could see that the Eagles had two seasons right like at the beginning of the season they were trash because they made Jalen Hurts throw. And then at the end of the season, they were remarkably healthy on both sides of the line for an older team. And then they just ground people to death in the running game.

And they ended up having a very, very easy schedule. They beat one winning team last year. And that was the Saints with Trevor Simeon at quarterback. I remember, remember yeah we talked about that because we bet tampa hard in that divisional round for this reason yeah because they just weren't they just weren't good like they you know what every year there's it's it feels like it's always the nfc's they get one team that sort of like sneaks into the playoffs because of a patty kick schedule i will also say that the eagles uh since 2005 they're when they're over is over nine and a

half they haven't hit it other than once so they're always projected to be pretty good and they never hit it when they're projected to be bad but always pretty good interesting the other thing this is from warren sharp the eagles have four road games on short weeks this year the most in the league other than that is one so or i think maybe two um so that's like a real odd schedule quirk i just think that the things line up the other problem is like to say that they should be good but we don't know about their quarterback means we should pump the brakes on them being good if there's a question mark at the most important position i have a hard time saying like yes this team is going to be good so to me i think they're under uh they're they're juiced pretty hard to the over you can get them for under nine and a half plus 125 so i think that's a pretty good value also

sorry one other thing the eagles were had very good injury luck last year and we talked about the offensive and defensive line like they that matters one or two things go wrong and a lot of things change. So I like them for the under. The other thing, you can get them an alternate line for under eight and a half for plus 200, which I think is a really strong line. So I'm fading them, which is a reason

that I think Washington could sneak up to eight. But I just don't see either of those teams being very good. All right. Well, the question then becomes, there has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East in 2004, and that includes three Super Bowl champions, by the way, two Giants and one with Eagles. So if it's not Dallas, let's say, right, if we're taking the trends,

is it the Commanders? Is it the Eagles?agles like who's that team it's not to me it's not washington so because again if hertz is is okay he's the player he was last year the eagles are gonna be in the position to do that right you know obviously health matters a lot but like that stuff the things i talked about matter, right? The Eagles approved their defense, and they're really good in the trenches. Yeah. So, and that number for the Eagles is plus 160, not the best value. But I do think there's one number that I think is worth playing with the Eagles

that may not be the under. What do you feel about Jalen Hurts rushing yards at 675.5? Huh. Last year, in 15 games he started, he rushed for 784 yards. That's pretty good. That seems really low. I wonder why it's that low. Is it, I guess, just people thinking that they're going to protect him a little bit more?

But that's not what their offense is. He's part of that offense now. That's what he is. I would take that better than anything else. I like that. I have a player prop for you, another player prop for you with the Eagles, actually. Yeah. So, oh man, I don't have the number in front of me, but I think it's six and a half.

Standby here. So it's Miles Sanders. He is over under for rushing touchdowns. Oh, it's down to five and a half. I really like this one because he had zero rushing touchdowns last year. Boston Scott led the team in carries inside the five by like more than double um he's their goal line back he was very successful i think he had 12 carries inside the five or something last year uh miles sanders was i think fourth on the team or third on the team in terms of

who got the most carries inside the five so boston scott's their goal line back and then jalen hurts is their second goal line back. And they just got A.J. Brown. Dallas Goddard's a good red zone tight end. And Miles Sanders has just had a touchdown problem this whole career. So the fact that he had zero touchdowns. I'm in for that. It's juiced down.

I think people might have gotten a hold of this prop because now it's juiced down to like minus 155. But I do think that it's a very safe bet. What's the number at, you said? It is, I think, five. I mean, the most he's had, he's gone in three seasons, he's only scored nine touchdowns. He scored three, six, and zero last year.

Yeah. I like that, actually. Yeah, when I prepped for this two days ago, it was minus, it was under six and a half, and it was about even odds. But now it's under five and a half, and it's minus 155. I still think it's a pretty good bet. I think's a good bet too put it in put it in the sheet love that i'm i'm i'm in on that one i like that one i think also again the the hurt if you look

at a number of hurts i think over i like to say i like the mile centers one better than the hurts over the rushing over because that you know injuries like the thing about player props and why overs i think are hard is because of injuries right like it under you don't ever root for injuries we mentioned but under the it cashes if someone gets hurt right so that's that's you know that's nuts you know that's part of the game can i add one thing here this is the exact numbers for the eagles inside the five hurts had 13 carries and seven touchdowns boston scott had 10 carries and seven touchdowns. Boston Scott had 10 carries and seven touchdowns. And then the next on the roster was Jordan Howard, who had six. He's not on the team anymore.

But then Miles Sanders, he had five carries. He netted negative five yards inside the five. No touchdowns. Wow. Yeah. Not a goal line guy. Not a goal line guy. All right, so let's get to the Cowboys. Look, their win total is 10.

boys. Look, their win total is 10. I every year I get suckered into thinking the Cowboys are going to be really good. Because I have a lot of talent. Since I've known you, I think you've gone over every year. Yeah. Yeah, I think actually we've made

a lot of money doing that. But and I would take it over again because I'm a dummy. But I just I can't this year, man. Like I'm – actually, there were – but anything postseason success, anything like that, I'm just not doing it. I'm not the Super Bowl champions. I'm not the NFC champions.

I'm just – I can't do it, man. Yeah. I know. Well, what's your reasoning? I think we're going to have the same ones, but people would rather hear yours. Their coach. Their coach. I mean, I agree.

And I think, like, look, I know Dak was hurt a bunch last year, so I certainly think that there's a possibility that he has a comeback kind of season-ish. He won't win comeback player of the year, but a comeback season. And, you know, he threw for 4,400 yards last year in a kind of quote-unquote bad year.

I think that his number, like his passing number, is certainly kind of a play here if we're looking for, you know, Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys. He'll throw for a bunch of yards. But, like, in the end, like, what's in crunch time in the postseason? I don't trust McCarthy and Dak right now at all. Yeah. Well, the thing about Dallas that in our mental shorthand of who they are,

we always talk about their offensive line and their wide receivers. And those have been the strengths that have carried them every year along with Zeke and Dak to some degree their wide receiving core right now is CeeDee Lamb who has been very good but like I think kind of overrated just based on the fact that he's a cowboy like he's been good but he's not Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson or anything their number two receiver currently is a guy named jalen tober who is a rookie out of south alabama he was the offensive player of the year in the sun belt um so that's a big drop off from amaria cooper who's not you know jerry rice but he's obviously like a very capable

wide receiver you know 1a or 2 um so i think that's a big loss then you look at the rest of that depth card they signed james washington but that you know michael gallup's hurt uh they lost cedric wilson like those are the team those are the kind of guys that dallas has just always had so that's a concern um three of their top four receivers being gone tyron smith is there but he's missed a lot of games the last couple seasons they lost lioyle Collins. Connor Williams is gone. They have a first round rookie from Tulsa who like, you know, who knows how that's going to pan out. So I think their two biggest strengths have really faded. And then like, you know, their defense, it came together because of Trayvon Diggs and Micah Parsons, right? So Micah Parsons, you know, maybe he'll have another amazing season

where he's Lawrence Taylor, or maybe he regresses. And then Trayvon Diggs, who last year, according to all the metrics... Oh, he's going to have a bad year. We could do like a... If it was like a Trayvon Diggs allowed yard prop, I'd be in for that.

He's... I mean, they have a lot of vulnerability on the defense, and all of these like cap sins that they've committed over the years could come back to bite them that like i feel like i'm just sort of like giving reasons for why all of these teams suck um one of them has maybe they do but i think that is what's going to happen like all these teams could suck i think that's why a lot of teams a lot of betters

love the giants is like you're just getting the best value on them to win the division and people are predicting chaos. There's not one team I love to win the division. I think Dallas. If I had to pick, I guess I would take Dallas just because they have the best quarterback and the best probably top-tier talent of this division, but it's not great. So Dak's number is 43-50. I feel comfortable with an over on that play I think that's like that's that's less than he even had last year he was hurt last year and he only started 16 of

17 games and like two years ago remember he only played five games he averaged 371 yards per game that season yeah they did they had a much better team, though. I mean, they really did. They had a much better offensive line. Yeah, the wide receiver thing is definitely a concern, I think, for an over here. But otherwise, I don't like any other Cowboys thing other than maybe the under for the win total. But I just –

Can I – Give me one. You're going to hate this. I hate it. But I have to mention that the what would you guess ezekiel elliott's uh rushing yards over under is just guess well i mean it's in the thing but 875 875 so i that's really low that's 52 yards a game and zeke last year played through a partially torn mcl he still cleared a thousand yards and that

was with tony pollard like having a great season and now everybody's taking him in their fantasy drafts way too high you never want to take a running back over that's like one of our cardinal cardinal rules um but even one that's really low though 875 yeah there was the season where he was suspended for six games that season he went over 900 so obviously he was younger and offensively i don't like that but i feel like if you're gonna take an over like that's a pretty that's not even that hard to root for the guy needs to get 60 yards a game i like that better than doc prescott's number me too i mean it's it's not with that it's very it's very like out everyone's so out on zeke zeke's not he's not adrian peterson his prime, but like he's

good. Like, I don't know. He should be able to get 900 yards, even if Pollard has a great season. I'm with you. I'm in on that one. Anything else you like for this division? I think I'm with you. I don't really like a lot in this division. A lot of player props, which is not usually our strong suit, but I like that. No, I like, there's

the AFC East is where I like a lot on one team. Like, I feel like we're going to fill up our bucket on the team that their fans despise me. So, I'm probably all of them. All right, Matt, before we get to the AFC East, you know, light NFC East wagering, we'll maybe get a little bit heavier. So we have five wagers I think we like here. We like Saquon, under seven and a half touchdowns.

The Giants, you like Giants under seven wins still. Terry McLaurin, over 1,000.5 yards receiving. Miles Sanders, under five and a half touchdowns. And Zeke, over 875.5 yards. We have a thousand dollars to spend here. I don't think we're going to go any higher than a thousand dollars for this year. And we actually don't have to spend a thousand dollars. I think we can roll it over. I think that's part of our rules too.

I just feel like a, like, what do you want to do? The Saquon one I feel good about. So what do you, what are you thinking? Yeah. I was going to ask what you feel best about. I think I feel best about Saquon and Zeke and Sanders. Yes, I was going to say, yeah. So you want to put like, what do you want to put on those? Should we do 200 each? Yeah, and then do so.

Or we could do like 250 on each and then do a little less on the other two. All right. Yeah, so 250. 250 on Saquon, under seven and a half touchdowns. 250 on Miles Sanders, under five and a half rushing touchdowns. These are both rushing touchdowns. Zeke. You basically have 125 left for each one.

Yep. Zeke over 875 and a half rushing. And then we're going to put 125 on McLaurin, over 1,000 yards, and Giants under seven. That's a nice slate. That's very modest. We can go over the top there. We did not go over the top there.

All right, you ready to go to the AFC East? I sure am, Jeff. Let's go. All right. I love the Bills over 11.5 wins. This feels like a no-brainer to me. This is their year to do this or not. Because this is the year,

if you're going to catch the Chiefs, it's this season, right? They have to do it this year. And they know that. And they've gone all in in that philosophy. Dude, they were so up and down last year and still obviously had a chance to beat the Chiefs and go to the Champions League game.

Like they're in a spot, I think, where they have got to get this done. And the best team, typically, in a conference wins 13 or now 14 games. And they're the best team right now in the AFC Conference. I think Buffalo is an over—the juice is 1-140, don't care, over 11.5. Even division champions at minus 225 I'm fine with. I really think this team is going to do it all together. Again, last year, guys, they were good with the highest variance offense in the NFL.

That means one week they were good, one week they were bad. To me, I think this year they put together an offense. I'm a little concerned that Brian D'Abel's not there. I get that. But they're very talented. They added Von Miller. They drafted well. I'm in on Buffalo winning 13 games.

So I didn't totally have a feel for this number until you started making this argument. And now I think I am willing to embrace the contrarian angle here. The first thing, yes, you're right. This is the year. This angle here the first thing yes you're right this is the year this is the last this is the year before i think right like josh allen's big contract kicks in and like then then the cap changes the thing that i think is worth mentioning to me it feels a little bit strange this number is so low i think that that's a it's like a little bit fishy because everyone is so sky high on the bills because i think they i think the reason everyone's high on them is because they

they almost beat the chiefs like i feel like everyone's memory of the bills is like man they should have made the super bowl instead of the bangles like or the rams i guess like even though that wouldn't obviously work but i just feel like there was some they got like a little bit of a pass for losing that game because it was so awesome and they were so good. Yeah. Yeah. But remember too, they were very injured on defense.

Like, they're healthier on defense this year. They should be out there on defense this year. I mean, maybe. But like, they didn't do a ton to address like some of the weaknesses on the team. Like beyond, you know, they drafted the corner from Florida Elam in case white goes down again, but like the secondary, like still is a little bit of a concern. Granted they play in an easy division, which we'll get to, but the thing that also is a little bit worrisome is like,

listen to this schedule coming out of the gate. They go at the Rams in week one, home to the Titans at Miami. Okay. Then they go at Baltimore,imore pittsburgh kansas city green bay like that's a pretty brutal start to your season it gets a little bit lighter after that but the other thing that's just kind of weird to me you mentioned dable like on one hand the giants are getting credit to get seven wins and the bills aren't getting dinged at all for losing dable like which is it is this guy awesome or does it not matter like i can't figure out what exactly i'm supposed to read out of table here i just think that every single no one is off of buffalo this year so there's part of me that

just thinks like is it worth being a little contrarian just to be contrarian because they seemed they're the super bowl favorites jeff they Jeff. They're the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They lost in the second round. So, okay. So who wins the most games AFC Conference this season? I mean, you could make the case for many teams. The Chiefs, the Chargers, the Bengals, the Ravens. Like, you could make a lot of cases.

Yeah, you can make that case. But I think Buffalo has the best case right now to make. More than your Kansas City Chiefs. At the moment, yes. I think that the Chiefs, I still bet they're over as well. But we'll get to the NFC West another time. Okay, so is division champs better in minus 225? It's just not a good bet.

Like, it's just, that's just not a good bet. Taking the over 11 and a half, if you're really, really in on them, I can get behind because it's not that high of a number. 12 and 5 for a team that good does not feel crazy. But, again, you mentioned why is the number not higher. No number's higher. I think Tampa Bay is 11 and a half, too. There's no number that's higher.

Yeah. That's just what the numbers are at. It's because everyone is betting Buffalo. That's scary. Yeah, but I – Tell me I'm wrong. Unless Jones – I think they're just really good, man. And I think I... Tell me I'm wrong. Unless Jones... I think they're just really good, man.

And I think they've been building to this point. And they kind of know this is their year to get this done. And I just really think they're going to win a lot of football games. I'm very high on them. You can get under 11.5 for plus 120. And it's like they could still go 11.5. Josh Allen could miss two games and they go 11 and 5 like i i i don't love going over it's your podcast i'm here to just i'm here to be the devil

on your shoulder and remind you that the teams that everyone loves at the preseason never do well that's not true except the chiefs every year and and tampa bay with tom brady and the packers and and and the cap the Packers keep winning like some of these good teams man just they stay good for a reason yeah yeah I like I'm doing 11 and a half over uh yeah I know everyone else is on it too I'm not betting on their Super Bowl numbers or AFC numbers the thing that some of these favorites is well think about this if the Super Bowl number is plus 600 right now right if they lose week one to the Rams it goes to what plus 700 they start one and two goes to plus 800 plus not like you get a much better number at any point this season than than you can right now Allen MVP is plus 700 if they

win as many games I think they win he's kind of up for that award I don't feel great about it Von Miller sack leader I would not do that as well. Allen was the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns. No, I don't feel great about those. Allen MVP is not bad choice. If I think they're going to be that good, he's going to win the MVP. So, but plus 700, I mean, who's, who are your MVP favorites? It's a hard one to bet for the season. I mean, Allen is the obvious choice. I'm, I'm very in on the Lamar Jackson comeback year.

I am too, but not for MVP. I haven't really looked at MVP yet. Let me take a glance at some of the odds here. I mean, the thing is, if this were this easy, everyone would make money doing it. We've made a lot of money last year. We should trust ourselves. I like Lamar at plus 2,000. is is like if this if this were this easy like everyone would make money doing it like we've made a lot of money last year we should trust ourselves i like lamar at plus 2000 i didn't realize he was that low i don't think he won the mvp but i think he'll have a great season um

josh allen's rushing yards for this year he rushed he last year he rushed for 763 yards his number this year is set at 650 that feels actually too actually think that under so he's rushed for 631 510 521 and 763 i kind of think the under 650 for josh allen rushing is is appropriate as well yeah so that's that's a good angle to explore because in no world do the bills win over the long term by having josh allen run a lot and that was something that i think they kind of figured out after he got going in the middle of the season like at the end of the season those bills running backs mainly singletary like really picked it up um and then when they got to the playoffs like they had a real rushing attack outside valence so

i have a feeling they just they just can't let that guy take as many hits as he's taken. Like the Cam Newton thing will happen. So I'm with you on that. So, Alan, sorry, Hank, it's 550s. Never mind. It's not 650. Oh, that's tough. Well, we're out on that one. So I think we're good with Buffalo here, at least for now, over 11 and a half for now.

A player prop for you what about uh gabe davis his touchdowns are set at seven and a half and this is again i don't i i feel like everyone just has been watching this chiefs bills game like since the season ended non-stop because g. Because Gabe Davis had the best game of all time in that game. I get that. But in the course of a season, are we really saying that that guy, are we sure he's their number two? They went out, they signed Jamison Crowder. This Isaiah McKenzie guy is getting all the buzz in training camp. Dawson Knox is still there. They drafted another running back. Devin Singletary was good. They still think Zach Moss is going to be getting touchdowns. Are we sure Gabe Davis is really going to get eight touchdowns this season? I feel like that's a good contrarian if play is to go under there.

I think everyone's just sort of projecting that he's going to just be awesome. I'm not sure that that makes sense. I like it, man. Very contrarian. What's it at? It's 7.5. And if you look at the other, like Cooper Cupps, 11.5. But like CeeDee Lamb is set at 7.5.

Al Robinson, 7.5. These are really good receivers who score a lot pretty regularly. And his is much higher than most people's. So I think it's pretty good under. He only had 6 last year. Oh, I like that. So let's put that in the notes there. Stephon Diggs is an eight and a half.

It's like, come on. All right. Yeah, I think it's an interesting point. I like that. I like that. They're going to bring the nuggets in. All right, let's get to the next team in the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins. Oh, geez.

What a confusing team they are. I mean, I think that some sort of under for Tyreek Hill has to be in play here. Whether it's touchdowns or yards, probably touchdowns feels the better play here. Touchdowns are 7.5, I believe. And his yards are just over 1,000, 1025. He's had years. He had six touchdowns in 2016.

He had seven in 2017, seven in 2019, nine last season. So he's not been a big touchdown guy. And, of course, Kansas City has many different options for that. But so does Miami, right? They have other weapons as well. I think under seven and a half touchdowns, minus 118, is a play here for Hill. I think that's a pretty good play.

If only because they're, I mean. Going to run the ball a lot because they're going to run the ball a lot. And their roster is just so weird. Their offense, they're like the opposite of the Ravens and the Eagles. They're going to be a running team because they have four running backs who all have been in RB1 before. It's Michelle, it's Edmonds, it's Mostert, it's Gaskin. They have all these guys. in rb1 before right like it's michelle it's edmunds it's mostert it's gaskin like they have all these guys and then they have like the fastest team ever like with hill with waddle with mostert like they're going to fly and i think that they're going to be a team that's like it's you know how

when teams play baltimore in the middle of the season and they have no clue how to play them because it's like week 11 and they just played like the packers and the chiefs and now they have to like stop the wing t and the blitz every play like i feel like that's what's gonna happen with the dolphins it's like everyone's gonna just be like huh like what are we supposed to do here and they're just gonna be super weird and creative and i think that they're a team that like i hate that their total's nine i wish it was like eight and a half or seven and a half like i do think they're gonna surprise some people because like they're gonna bring in the goofy Shanahan offense like they're gonna they have a pretty decent defense like they signed Teron Armstead like they they're gonna figure out that offensive line which was terrible and like

I know that I I feel like I'm not a Tua fan but I don't think I'm as out on him as everyone else seems to be like I think that he could possibly be competent and i feel like no one is sort of pricing that into what the dolphins can do if he's okay they could be a playoff team so do you like should you like to uh passing yards over what's his number i i get i like the tyree kill under seven and a half touchdowns for the dolphins i'm into. I'm fine with that. Let's see what Tua's number looks like. Tua over 38 50. So per game

that is 226 yards a game. Like, I think that is a pretty safe bet. Okay. Well, but what? The under or the over? The over. But look, dude, if they win games when he throws for 180 yards,

they'll like totally be happy with that. Like that's the issue with, I'm going to look at Jimmy Garoppolo last season. So Jimmy G, how many yards was it? Did he average? He would have to average 3850 divided by 17. He'd have to average 226 yards a game and your number for Hill is just receiving touchdowns right it's not all purpose

touchdowns that's correct yeah so I like that so Jimmy G averaged last year sorry 254 yards per game yeah so that's comfortably that's like way under what Tua would need

say the number again I'm going to put it in here I keep deleting it from my That's comfortably – that's like way under what Tua would need. Say the number again and we'll put it in here. I keep deleting it from my calculator. 226 per game, which is 3850 total. 3850, okay. I'm putting the notes here. When you look at the Dolphins last year, it was Waddell who was unbelievable in a pretty tough-looking offense. Gusecki was like fun, but he didn't have a great season you add hill you add these running backs their running game was awful

last year and they added connor williams and toronto armstead like they they should be better on offense especially with you know mike mcdaniel is as good as people think he might be. So 38-50 puts him above, if you look at last year, puts him above Jimmy Garoppolo, below Matt Ryan. If you believe in Tua at all, I think it's a good way to play it. I think that held under touchdowns is the way to go in this one.

I would say, okay. I mean, we can also do... I put Tua in there just to have it in there, but yeah. You can also do Tua over 25 and.5 passing touchdowns for plus money, which is not very many. But that one feels a little iffy because they're going to pound it down there. I mean, Jimmy Garoppolo had only one – I mean, he had 27 and 20 in his two full seasons in San Francisco.

That's not what really they do. That's why I like the Tyreek Hill under. season in San Francisco. That's not what really they do. That's why I like the Tyreek Hill under. That's just not really what this offense is if you kind of base it off of what we've seen with Michael Daniel in the past with Shanahan. One more thing, too, on the receiving. So last season, the Niners, like Debo only had six receiving touchdowns

last year. Right. He led the team in receiving touchdowns. Him and Kittle with six. I think Terrico under seven and a half is the way to go here. Yeah, I'm fine with that. I don't hate Miami to make the playoffs plus 140. That's a pretty interesting number.

They basically, you know, the AFC is just so loaded. But if they do get nine wins, like, you know. Here's my issue with, like, some of that is, so Tua is at, what, the 10th best quarterback in the conference? Like, it's just hard for me to wager on. That's a good point. Know what I mean? And a new coach, like, I think it's hard for me to make that wager.

Going in my head. It's like, yeah, that feels fair. Yeah. All right. I think, in my opinion the dolphins the dolphins are the most tricky team to figure out for me like they could be really good like they could be one of those teams that are so surprising because of just the unique flavor of their team or they could be trash it's oh certainly yeah their range of outcomes is is

like massive i think oh 100 yes and it all depends on two in my opinion um all right let's get to um Their range of outcomes is, like, massive, I think. Oh, 100%. Yes. And it all depends on two, in my opinion. All right, let's get to the New England Patriots. Holy hell. You have someone running the offense. I don't know who. And an offensive line coach that's never done it before at that level. I really don't like to fade Bill Belichick.

I don't think you make money doing that. But I don't know how they win over eight and a half games. I know. Like, have you seen the reports at training camp about their offense right now? Like, they can't complete forward passes. They can't run the football. I have to go under eight and a half here i don't know any other way to fade them that has a good number this is just the over two i mean obviously

bill belichick i think is one of the the best coach ever but i i man under yeah i think i'm with you i mean i i really thought about this one a lot. The thing is, their season starts in a pretty interesting way. Week one, they go to Miami, which is always where they lose. They're one and four there in the last five seasons. Then you go through the rest of their beginning schedule year. They then go at Pittsburgh, Baltimore, at Green Bay. Then they do get lucky. They get Brissette and the Bears get Brissette for the Browns

in Week 6 and 7. But then at the end of the year, Minnesota, Buffalo, Arizona, Vegas, Cincinnati, Miami, Buffalo. They're going to go through two gauntlets in this season, and I feel like they always have a cake schedule just for whatever reason. But they could have a couple of big-time meltdowns, and if they start slow with this offense out of training camp, they might not recover.

If they start one in four with losses to, you know, Baltimore and green Bay and Miami, like that's, they're not going to dig out of that. Yeah. Having said all that, you know,

like it does kind of feel like right now is the lowest value we'll ever get for the Patriots. I'm with you. I completely, I think they stink. There's nobody on their team who I'm like, man, I would love to have him on the commanders or, you know what I mean? Like they don't have anybody who I think is like so standout at any spot, really, other than the coach.

Matt, right now they have Matt Patricia calling plays. Yeah, but like who cares? They have bill belichick's kid calling the defense just who cares like it doesn't matter like that matters at all but they've had josh daniels for like 15 years buddy like i think that does matter and they have joe judge coaching offensive line like what are we doing the skarnackia thing i think matters more than we have to fade them this year i hate doing it but like i i cannot and we don't have to play this but that's the only wager i feel comfortable making on this team is under eight and a half wins let's do it man i i would love to root for it like they're they suck 105 right yeah and i was thinking like well maybe

you take them to make the playoffs like what are they plus 160? Plus 160. Like, that seems just like a crazy number. But like at some point they're going to have to lose some games. Like, it's just, I'm sorry. Like Patriots fans, like you can't win 10 games every single year. Maybe this is the year. Their team stinks. The only thing we're doing is saying like, well, Bill Belichick's amazing. But like, whatever.

Greg Popovich has been losing for a while. Like maybe it's time. I'm with you, man. I think this is the year. Gabe's going to be so happy that we did this. Even though I think he hates Tom Brady more than anything else. All right. So, if Pat's under 8.5 wins, dude, I just – let's do it.

All right. One more team left, the Jets. All right. Sorry, guys. What am I going to tell you? Okay. This brings up an interesting topic. So, we were talking the other day on Twitter about a month ago because I saw that Zach but I don't, sorry guys. What am I going to tell you? Okay. This brings up an interesting topic.

So we were talking the other day on Twitter about a month ago because I saw that Zach Wilson, they announced has the most, you know, tickets for passing yardage leader this season. Okay. And it's,

you know, like plus 2000. Okay. And I'm going to give you a PSA on this. Matt and I might differ on this a little bit, but because I have no problem laying juice if I think the wager is worth it, especially like I said,

I bet Jacksonville last year minus 400 don't make the playoffs. And I might do that with the Lions this year, by the way, no matter how much I like Hard Knocks. Hard Knocks was great last night, by the way. Really good. It's like back.

Dan Campbell brought it back, everyone. Uptowns. Is that just because you see a big number after the plus does not mean there's value in that wager, right? That doesn't mean there's value. The value is how to win some money, okay? Matt, if I told you you could bet $5 on Zach Wilson winning the passing title at plus $2,000

or $5 at Pat Mahomes at plus $600, which one provides you more value? Absolutely, Mahomes. Mahomes! You have a chance to win that wager. Yeah, the payout is 6-1. It's 6-1 one still you're making six times your your money instead of just taking five dollars and wiping your ass with it and throwing it away because you bet on zach wilson like the value is can you win the wager or not

it's not just throwing money on anything because there's a big number after the plus i don't get it now it's one thing about gambling culture i think that's taking over now that everyone does gambling like we kind of got like in the early phase of this right with with action network we're like in chat i love chatting he kind of taught us principles right like the the right wager is the winning wager right and i don't get people to just throw money away because it has quote value there's no value in betting zach wilson to lead the nfl in passing yards what are we doing people i that's one of my favorite of your takes i've i've ever been on the receiving end of having said all of that if you take them it's so stupid much money during this year. I'm a bunch of the face. Having said all of that, what about the Jets to make the playoffs? No!

No! No! Absolutely not. Absolutely not. No chance in hell. No chance. I love it. I love it.

chance at hell no chance i love i swear to god i prepared this argument for this exact take making the exact argument that you explained is an idiotic one to make but when i looked through all of the to make the playoffs yeses the texans are plus 1600 which is incredible the falcons are plus 800 and then the jets were plus 700 and i was like come on there's gotta be a way that they could they could just get to nine like what if like the entire rest of the afc gets covid for six months maybe then they'd have a chance but i don't know, man. I can't even make the argument. I was going to do it like sort of trolling just for the content, but I can't do it. But I think I went first with my rant. If you had gone first with your rant, maybe that would have –

I'm so glad it didn't happen that way. I got to say – I had to get it off my chest. Can I just say, though, I actually think the Jets might be – they're not going to be good, but they are going to be fun. They are going to be much better. They'll be feisty, yeah. I think Zach, I mean, Zach Wilson came into a brutal situation last year,

one of the worst offensive lines, wasn't prepared for the NFL. Their offense, they really invested in it. It's the Becton thing stinks. But, you know, people forget just because they had such a great draft like they got the top corner of the drafts they got maybe the top receiver in the draft at number 10 they drafted a great pass rusher and they drafted breese hall like they're gonna be one of those every year there's one of those young teams that's just like too dumb to know that they're bad and they could just end up being

kind of good so one wager that i did make um on my own so far um and you were making these wagers kind of as we go depending on what sports we can find i took breeze hall to win offensive rookie of the year um a good friend of mine i don't know what it's at now. I can look that up very quickly. I got it at plus 760 right now. That's what I got at Offensive Rookie of the Year. They're going to run his ass as much as they can. And they're going to use him as much as possible. And he's in a better situation than Kenneth Walker is with that offensive line. Now, Munkai Beckton's hurt.

But I think Brees Hall, his ability on third down as well to be a third down back for them, I just think he's the offensive rookie of the year. And the number is... Plus seven. I don't know what the number... So, basically, the number I got. I would put...

As we're doing it, that feels like a good, quote-unquote, long-shot wager. Yeah, I'm down for that. We do. I think, while you're right that you shouldn't just waste money on asinine things, I think you do have to throw some darts at some things you actually believe in. That's part of my – And I think this is one where I do believe in Brees Hall.

Again, a buddy of mine called me and goes, Look, dude, I'm just telling you, I know the Jets. I've talked to them. They're going to run the shit out of Brees Hall, and they're going to pass the ball to him, and he's going to be a big part of their offense. Huh. Wow, this is a good number from producer Hank here.

Over 1,000 yards and 8.5 touchdowns is plus 1,100. That's a really good number. And I also think that with the quarterbacks, the rookie quarterbacks this year probably not playing, it turns to really to running backs to win that award, right? Offensive rookie of the year. That's a really good call. That's a really good call.

I think I might wager some of my own on that. That's a nice one. So, all right. So for the AFC East, now we got done laughing. My cheeks are hurting. We have Bills over 11 and a half minus 140. We have Gabe Davis, seven and a half touchdowns, right? Seven and a half. What's the number over 11.5, minus 140. We have Gabe Davis, 7.5 touchdowns, right? 7.5 was the number?

Yeah, under, yep. Under. What was the odds on that? I don't have the number for that one. Stand by. Keep reading. I'll find out. Hill under 7.5 touchdowns, which is Hill and Davis should never have the same number.

Minus 118. Hall, rookie of the year. Brees Hall, plus 750. And Pats under win total, plus 105. How do you want to... I feel like for Hall, we just put, what, 50 on that, 100 on that one? What do you think?

Yeah, let's do that. Davis is minus 115. So how much for Hall, you think? Or do you want to wait until we get to the end and see what we're doing here with all these other ones? I mean, we can. We do have our little extra budget here. So why don't we do $100 on that?

Or no, hold on. Let's see. Okay, how about we start with the ones you like the most out of these ones? Yeah, funny. I think I like that the most. I mean, betting the Patriots under, if our standard unit is 200, why don't we do that there? The Bills, you know, I like Hill too.

I like both of the touchdown unders. You could just do 200 for all of them. Yeah, that works. Well, I feel like, okay, let's do all 100 for that one. Let's add 50 bucks to two other wagers on this board. So how about the two unders for wide receivers? We do 250. Sure, that works.

Okay. You want to recap the AFCs? Yes. So Bills over 11.5 wins for 200. Davis, 7.5 touchdowns under gabe davis for the bills at uh 250 that's minus 115 hill under seven half touchdowns um receiving touchdowns that is and minus 118 for 250 breese hall rookie of the year again down here for quarterbacks look at the wide receivers is chris olave is drake london winning this award? Is Dodson winning it? No, it's Brees Hall, guys.

Plus 750. Put a hunter on that one. And then we have Pats under 8.5 wins for 200. That's the one that's really risky. We're basically fading Bill Belichick, which is really not good. No, it's not great. We have our wagers for the AFC.

We have 10 wagers so far. We're off to a good start. I feel good about these, Matt. How do you feel, buddy? I feel good. I feel like it's interesting. We talk about over-unders privately all the time, but we ended up going with all these player props.

I think the total market has gone just better. It has. People just cover it so much now that it's really hard to feel like there's a lot of an edge and and to that point like i feel like these are two really strange divisions like there's the bills who are the only team out of eight teams that i feel like is a very good team the other seven teams you could tell me that none of them make the playoffs or like three of them make the playoffs and any outcome would be possible. Like,

I think that there are very unusual two divisions and yeah, there's a lot of stinky quarterbacks in the mix that we just talked about. All right, buddy. I mean, we did it. We did it. We're in.

You didn't mention the, uh, the jets plus 700 to make playoffs. You didn't, you, you neglected to mention. Yeah, we're not, we're not, plus 700 to make playoffs. You neglected to mention that. Yeah, we're not doing that. I made that very clear. It's not happening. Just don't do it, everybody.

PSA from Jeff Schwartz. I was so excited to make that case for you. No, done. Just to show over it. Just done. I couldn't even do it. I couldn't look you in the eye. Not happening.

Not happening. All right, everyone. Take care. We'll be back next week with two episodes as we ramp up the NFL season. Hope we make you guys some money. We'll talk to you guys next week. Have a great weekend, everyone. Peace.