Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets for NFL Week 17

Episode Date: December 29, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back to discuss CFB bowl season, the Broncos benching Russell Wilson, and of course, the five best bets against the spread for week 17 of the NFL season. As always, Geoff and Matt go through every single game on the weekend slate and pick five that they will be wagering on.Thank you for listening to Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You! If you enjoyed the show, please be sure to rate, review, subscribe, and follow the pod. If you didn't enjoy the show, skip those steps, but come back next week and see if we do any better!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday december 29th i'm jeff schwartz it's jeff schwartz this morning we're live on twitter and we're on your podcast platform with choice thank you for tuning in happy new year and it's almost a new year matt we'll talk about all the nfl games as we normally do on friday with a full slate of nfl action all weekend with saturday sunday and monday on friday we're brought to you by the vaulted app. Home of a season-long game giving out $14,000 of cash prizes, culminating with $5,000 on the final pool of the season, the day of the big game.

That's Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. Where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools, and get any entry fees and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. Each and every week, I will have a poll on the Vaulted app. You can answer questions. There are 20 of them. To win cash prizes, it's free to enter.

You put in your confidence level between 1 and 10. You agree or disagree with said prediction. And the only way to qualify for the big game poll is to beat me in one of our regular season polls, which will be tough to do because, as you guys know, I am smarter than you. We'll also be storing our five predictions from this show into the app matt stop laughing we're doing good this year matt we're 44 30 and 6 so we're 59 so our predictions are going well uh another good week last week and um happy new year

to you my friend i will not talk to you we We will be texting before New Year, but we will not be able to talk in the podcast. So happy New Year to you, buddy. You too, buddy. Thank you. Good to see you. Where is your Christmas tree right now? Like in what state of decomposition is it in? It is December 29th when we record this.

Okay. So for those who don't know, my tradition, my tradition, my wife's tradition is to take the Christmas tree out on Christmas morning. First of all, we are Jewish. So we do not celebrate Christmas traditionally. We celebrate Hanukkah. And the tree is more for holiday spirit than it is for the celebration of Christmas. My kids normally get one Christmas present at the most. And this year they were out of town.

They were in Whistler skiing. And my wife texted me Christmas morning, Matt, and said, please take the tree down for me. I said, I wasn't planning on doing it. And she goes, well, the maids are coming tomorrow i need it down so it took two hours probably to take the tree down and clean the area up um at one point i got so it's a 13 foot tree okay we had eight ropes of lights on it okay at one point i'm trying to pull the lights through and i just the light just rope just snaps in half like i was so angry was so angry. It just gets caught on a branch here and there, and I have to like, I'm in a full swing. I have a 10-foot ladder.

I'm going 10-foot ladder with a pole to pull the light rope around part of it and then walk up the stairs, get the other half, throw it down, walk up the 10-foot ladder. Now, of course, you guys don't care about this per se, but I drive the tree out to the side of the road. We care a lot. I drive the tree the tree out we care a lot i tried to check the side of the road it was on the side by 10 30 i texted my neighbor saying hey did you drive is that your tree outside yep absolutely is okay the best part by the way of this was my wife and the kids were on a vacation we're on vacation with a friend of ours and she was with meredith and whistler and her boyfriend who's a police officer

came over to get her car keys because her car was at our house and he wanted to bring it back home when she was coming back the next day. And he showed up with a rookie. He had a rookie in his car with him. They were patrolling and he showed up right when I was doing this. So this rookie police officer is seeing this large gentleman drag a tree out to the side of the road on Christmas morning. And I wonder what he told his family, Matt. What he told his family. Like, hey, guys, guess what? I was on patrol today with so-and-so.

And, yeah, I saw a grown man drag his tree out on Christmas. So it was out there. Yeah, 10.30 a.m. Christmas morning. Yeah. So it was out there 30 a.m. Christmas morning. Yeah the best part by the way of Our friends a boyfriend being a cop is like he always comes over the house Of course and we do a lot of things on the weekends But like he'll bring his cop car and I'm sure the neighbors think something's happening in our house all the time I was that cop car there again, but it pisses our neighbors off the cop cars always there

um also to my daughter had like a smaller tree like a four-foot tree in her room and We brought the tree down, too. And they only took the big tree. So the big tree is gone, and her tree is still there on the side of the road. I don't know why. I have no idea why.

So we have one Christmas tree outside our house still. It's my daughter's. It's still there. And, yeah, if you see me, by the way, turning to look at the television, it is bowl season right now and i have money matt on both of these games so um i'm gonna maybe take a peek at the game while i listen to you uh it's clemson kentucky great i have the under so the one about cultural ball this year in in uh bowl games is the steam so for those who are unaware steam is like when a line moves very

quickly in one direction so you know like know, like for example, Notre Dame, or I was going to say Notre Dame was favored by, oh, upwards of 10 when the line opened. It moved slowly down. But today it went down like two points. They're steamed down. A lot of times in bowl season, Matt, you bet the opposite of the steam. You take the team that just got – the other team.

So normally you take the team, you're like, oh, the NFL. When things get steamed, you typically want to take the team that just got steamed, right? It's simply simply underdog at home in college football it's been the opposite of bowl game so take note in they're up 14 nothing right now they're going to cover the original number this happens all through all through bowl games it's kind of weird but uh so that's a bowl game uh discussion for you guys i by the way uh washington texas first half over 31 and a half in the playoff and in one of the playoff games on Monday. I like that.

Oregon team total over 42 against Liberty. I like that. So there's a couple of bowl games. I'm eyeing playoff games as we get to that on Monday. But first, we have National Football League. Matt, what do you want to start with? So much to talk about. Thanks for the Christmas tree talk.

Speaking of things that are on their way out, Russell Wilson benched, presumably for financial reasons, by the Broncos and Sean Payton. Just ugly. Just an ugly situation, an ugly resolution to a really big swing the Broncos made a year ago. Before we get into the picks, I'm curious what your

big takeaway is from uh from that decision so look you're free to bench whoever you want obviously but matt the way they did it and the way they went about it feels very grimy even for a league that typically is grimy right it's a business or we was talking about it's a business a business so basically they told russell wilson hey man this is like weeks ago, weeks ago, not just like yesterday, weeks ago, Matt. Hey, you're not really in our future plans. Can you restructure your contract to help us out so we can cut you? They wanted the injury guarantee removed from his contract. So after the season, they get rid of him and not pay him as much money. If he were to get hurt, they'd owe him more money, an injury guaranteed.

That's why they're in the contracts that way. And Matt, the chutzpah, the balls it takes for the Denver Broncos to go to Russell and say, hey, buddy, can you please take less money so we can cut you is bullshit. It takes a lot of chutz to do that and russell wilson presumably gave him not he didn't do that his agent gave them two middle fingers told me get lost as they should and now they can do with what they can cut them trade them whatever else but the fact is it was pretty bush league for them to ask him to take less money so they can cut them there are times where you take less money because I was asked to restructure, but I did it. So I was owed, I think it was, I was owed like 4 million my second year in the

Giants. I'd been hurt year one. I was only guaranteed like half of that. So if they cut me, I'd only get half of my deal. They restructured my contract and put it basically incentive-based. So I was able to earn almost all that money back in incentives that season. I did. I earned most of my money back. And that's a restructure that happens a lot in the NFL. It's like, I'm going to cut you and you can only get half your money. But Russell Wilson gets all his money if they cut him, right? So there's no restructure to be done if you're Russell Wilson. And look, Sean Payton and Russell Wilson are not a match, okay? I, Matt, did not think they were a match from the start. We talked about this. What Sean Payton does on offense is not what Russell Wilson does well.

There's obviously a disconnect there. The offense is much smaller than ideally Sean Payton would want it to be. And Russell Wilson is not good in this offense. Those things are true. But the way they went about this, though, was really, I mean, it was bold of them to go in that direction. And obviously, they look like dummies because it came out and it makes them look in a bad light.

In the end, though, I mean, no one's going to care. Russell Wilson will be gone. They have to eat that contract. One of the worst trades in NFL history. Everyone says, well, the extension was worse well matt the extension my opinion was part of the deal he wasn't going there without an extension and uh they gave him nate hackett and they hired sean payne who who doesn't really his offense doesn't match well so they didn't really give him a fair chance um and he's out he's done. And he'll be starting

somewhere next year. Atlanta feels like a good place for him. You know, Atlanta, like they just need someone who's not Desmond Ritter. And the money will be different because they won't have to, you know, this will be the Broncos' problem. So, pretty stunning, though, the way they went about this. It doesn't happen very often like this.

Yeah. It's a shame for Russell Wilson. It's crazy how everybody was sort of against I don't know he who is like the big Russell Wilson fan out there anymore but I think this is making a lot of people sort of appreciate the year he's had I mean not ridiculous not great numbers but 26 touchdowns eight picks the Broncos have looked a little bit better lately they obviously last two weeks ran into some trouble but I don't. I don't think his career is over. I think it's pretty incredible that Sean Payton has just sort of won the power in Denver after a year where they're not going to make the playoffs where that division was very winnable this year, actually. I don't know. I just, this, this is a mess atlanta maybe uh i could definitely see him depending on

what happens with cousins and his his health like maybe minnesota just sort of like a steady hand for one of these teams that's like pretty close um so i don't know this is this was really unexpected i mean the fact that they've they made this big of a swing and are already undoing it that quickly and just handing the keys to Sean Payton like rebuilding that roster is not going to be any easier like they you know they gave away all those picks they're still going to sort of be unwinding from that I don't think they have a lot sort of like in their like their roster is kind of weird like what do they have really on offense they you know I think Sutton's fine they should have sold it defense pieces yeah it's like they if they knew

this was coming they could have done things to sort of calibrate towards this result so um so yeah something other bad teams like Hank and my commanders are doing so yeah tough one for us um I'll be curious to see if if we discuss their game uh they play the Charters this week uh two really interesting teams now um but let's move on to this week's games. They start tomorrow, Saturday at 8 o'clock Eastern. The NFC North champion Lions

are going to Dallas. Dallas off of two losses. Let me just see what the latest is here because I was stunned that this was a six-point line. Now it's five and a half for Dallas. Yeah, I mean, isn't the Lions plus the points to play here matt like this this i it's not my i'm not sure it's my favorite of the week but this number is shocking to me or or do we say look man we're just wrong about this you know like vegas puts up a number that we don't think is right and we talk about

this often like is there a reason it's wrong? Like why? Are we the ones that are wrong? Because Vegas typically doesn't tend to be wrong, Matt. This was surprising to me. It's nothing to do with the way Dallas has played recently. I just think this number for two defenses that at times can give up points. But the Cowboys are at home.

They play much better at home. I don't know. I mean, DBA, they're 6-7. They're right near each other. It seems like too many points, dude. I mean, can we get – it's five and a half now across the board. It just feels like too many points. Yeah, I mean, there's – the trends here that are worth noting it we've we've always been on the

golf is worse outdoors well he's indoors he's you know it's a road game where he's not as good but uh you know he plays well in domes Dallas and Dak they're good as big favorites at home but big favorites at home but uh under teams that are over 500 dac is 18 and 30 against the spread um that's 261st of 264 quarterbacks in the last 20 years thanks to that again 261 of 264 uh in quarterbacks in the last 20 years he's 18 and 30 against the spread against teams over 500 straight up so this is a big number for a team i i think they vegas hung this number assuming that you know when the lions are like crying after the game because they beat mannesota in the regular season you sort of want to go against the team that does that the next week. And Dallas is coming off of two losses. Everyone's kind of doubting whether they're real or not.

But, I mean, these teams are pretty even. And we're getting a ton of points for a team that could be the one seed in two weeks. That's a thing. I'm fine with that. The Lions can still get the one seed, for those who are unaware. It's not the Eagles. It's the Lions. Because of strength of loss, strength of win.

If they beat Dallas and beat Minnesota, and the Niners lose one more game, the tiebreaker between the Eagles and Lions is that strength of win, and the Lions will have a higher strength of win after they beat the Cowboys. So the Lions have an inside. Again, the Niners play Washington this week and the Rams the following week.

The Lions are playing for the one-seed. I don't think this team is a team that doesn't show up in a game like this with Dan Campbell. So we'll put it in our back pocket. We'll put it as a maybe. It's not one I love. Put it as a maybe. But it seems like just too many points.

Too many points, man. Yeah, I agree. And for the record, I mean, the Lions, if they get home field, they're a totally different animal in these playoffs. They're better at home. They wouldn't have to go out in Philly and battle in the outdoors in the colds. I think that home crowd will really make a difference.

When's the last time the Lions – I mean, they had a playoff game at home against dallas oddly but like when's the last time they won a playoff game at home that that this crowd is going to be fired up so um yeah i think that i think everyone's on dallas like the sharps are on dallas the public's on dallas everyone's on dallas um but so maybe we're missing it but i think five and a half is not bad alice um but so maybe we're missing it but i think five and a half is not bad um all right let's move on to uh let's go in the order of this doc here the cardinals are going to philly we can probably not spend a ton of time on this one uh kyler might not be playing um but the line keeps kind of moving as if he might so it's at 11 or 12 now for Philly. Yeah. I like Eagle's team total over 30 and a half.

Arizona's defense 31st in DVOA, I believe. And they give up like 29 points a game, 32nd in DVOA. I think Eagle scored a bunch of points in this game, Matt. That's Eagle's team total is something I wrote about this week. I feel good about them. But we're not taking the number in this game, I don't think. Are we? No, I don't think so.

The side would be Arizona, but without knowing for sure what Kyler's status is, I don't think that we can do that. All right, let's pass on that. Okay, this game. I'm really curious where you are here. Falcons are going to chicago the current line on this one i'm seeing is is it three still did it move it's three or you can get two and a half if you like chicago um man what what do want what do we do here i mean at three i think you take atlanta

but i know but at two and a half you take chicago i don't think we can take atlanta plus two and a half and we had three most of the week honestly that's the problem right no there's there's this part of me that kind of likes chicago and i know that it's like it's all smoke and mirrors and like we're not going to count on them as favorites um i don't know you can't really trust either of these teams i was like a little bit intrigued by the bears just because like their defense has truly become pretty good you can't really run on them and so that means that taylor heineke outside is going to have to try to win this game in the air the fal Falcons, I think, did they play the Panthers next week or is that the Bucs? Because I do feel like

the Falcons are more alive than we are, which is just depressing. If they were to win out, I think they would have a chance. They have New Orleans. Yeah, so I don't know.

We can lay off this one. We chicago under seven and a half wins we need to lose they need to lose one more game we're gonna lose our bet i know i know they who do they have next week they have that was my strongest bet of the year they have green green back yeah yeah yeah so oh we can pass this one i i it's gonna be a mess of a game and i'm glad we don't have to really be locked into it um all right the panthers who we were on in every wrong week and now they've started to cover every week they're going to jacksonville they're getting six points this line has moved down all week do we have the balls to bet on Bryson for one more go-around against this banged-up Trevor Lawrence-led Jacksonville team?

I don't know if I have it in me, but I think they are the right side. What do you think? I think they are the right side if we're getting six so far. I bet this close is like at four by kickoff. I think everyone's going to hammer Carolina here. I think we're getting a really good number. They're playing slightly better football. It's a little bit better.

They're playing better, Matt. Jacksonville's lost four in a row, though. Jacksonville feels broken right now, absolutely broken. So I think Carolina plus six or pass is the way to go here. The problem is I don't like many of their games this week. So it's not, it's not a great week for games. I like,

I originally liked me Carolina plus six feels like the spot you want to be in. I mean, I feel like the public's not going to bet Carolina this week anyways, even though they're going to be, Oh, well Jacksonville, they're going to break their street against Carolina.

I don't know. I don't know, man. Yeah. I'm fine with Carolina plus six um a couple of things so the since they fired frank reich the panthers are three one and one against the spread they have one win in there yeah uh they're playing better trevor lawrence statistic or historically um not good against teams against the spread at least uh five and twelve against teams under 500 straight up so he always it seems like the Jags always kind of played down to their competition

um six is a is a great number I'm fine with it it's just going to be ugly and we do buddy one thing we have to I mean there there aren't enough good games this week and i i will say somebody else made this point i forget who it was but uh it is pretty insane that in this year of quarterback injuries bryce young has remained on the field the whole season right like cj stroud has missed time levis missed time but then like you go across the league and the two healthiest quarterbacks have been tua and bryce young like the two quarterbacks of everyone was assumed would just not be able to play at all so really i I really respect Bryce Young like I feel like he's really gone through it they've played a lot better lately they put a 30 plus against Green Bay last

week um so I'm fine I think I think they're trying to play hard they don't have their pick obviously so I'm I'm fine uh going with Jack over with the Panthers here, plus six. Okay. That's plus six. Disgusting. Speaking of disgusting... So you know, like, okay, this is how wagering sort of messes with you. So I have Clemson minus three and a half. They're up three with

11 seconds left. They intercept the ball, and I'm thinking to myself, like, just take it to the house! Take it to the house! And he just takes a knee, of course, knee of course because they won the game it was over but i missed by the hook missed by the hook okay continue on buddy that's our life story uh the next game is uh where did it go uh next up is rams giants uh the rams are laying five and a half in the Meadowlands. There's a six. There's a six out here. Interesting.

Okay. So we're on the same side here. Yeah. I mean, it's the Giants, right? It has to be. Yeah. Yep. It's disgusting.

With Terod Taylor. Oh, yeah. It's just a horrific bet. But it's not Tommy Cutlets, though. So without Tommy Cutlets, you feel a little bit better about it. Yeah. Yeah, I think they're the play. The Rams are one of the hottest teams.

Everyone's sort of look ahead to the postseason team that I think everyone's going to be in on. They played two really strange games the last couple weeks um the saints game was it just was a little closer than we realized in the commander's game they almost let them right back in um they're getting a lot of credit for a valiant loss to the ravens so they also the rams play san francisco next week uh the team that they have always struggled against so So this could just be a like survive and advance game. There should be some weather. I think I'm not sure the latest.

I think it's really windy there this weekend in New York. Yeah. So probably a lot of handing the ball off to Kyron Williams, not exactly ferocious Giants defense, but I don't think this is like a blowout game. And so Rod Taylor, I believe as a giant um i think he's covered in every or covered or pushed yeah he's two oh and one as a starter

under dayball so they're gonna this is gonna be like a messy close game and i think it's a few too many points for uh for the giants yeah there's a six at caesar's right now let's do it so we'll take it okay six shop around follow jeff's lead all right six it is um man how disgusting let's it looks like our rundown just moved around here um let's go to let's go to one of the good games of the week and that's Miami at Baltimore Baltimore three and a half point home favorites to the Dolphins in a game that will have massive playoff implications I have a feeling we're not going to be betting this but I'm curious what side you'd be on if we were to I really like Miami plus three and a half interesting go on well okay

let's talk about this so baltimore is off a huge win on a short week right monday night football you beat up the niners you fly back home you play a dolphins team they got a very confident win against the cowboys right they played a game without their best on offense and still won the game. But, guys, their defense has played really well, Matt. It's played really well since Jalen Ramsey came back. We talk about this each and every week. It's a legitimately good football team with this defense now. And I think it's a really good spot, three and a half points,

to come in there and to sort of sneak up on on the ravens like i know that you know the ravens defense is outstanding but you bring all that pressure against tyreek hill and jaylen wattle like good luck you know i mean so uh i think three and a half is is is plenty of enough of enough points to feel good about about the dolphins here i i'd gladly take the dolphins yeah i it's i i'm in um i'm scared but i'm in um mainly there's a couple of things here with um with this with this matchup the first is you always want to take lamar as an underdog but when he is laying more than three he's six and sixteen against the spread um so that's a little bit concerning the problem is tua on the road has been atrocious like he's really good at home he's not great against good teams uh the dolphins are

five and eleven against teams over 500 since 21. They're bad in December. They're bad on the road. Tua stinks. He's 11-12-1 on the road in his career, which isn't terrible, I guess. But I agree. The short week, everyone's blowing up the Ravens. Lamar is the MVP. And they're still only laying 3.5 to a Dolphins team that's kind of banged up, right?

Like Jalen Waddle is probably not going to play. Mostert's been banged up. Hill's been been banged up their defense has a bunch of injuries but i mean baltimore's banged up too i mean both i mean it feels like that san francisco game uh left both teams kind of reeling um there's some stat i can probably find quickly about teams that play san francisco like what happens the next week. Yeah, they're 16 and 34 the week after facing the Niners since 21. So it could just be a bit of a letdown spot for Baltimore. This is kind of their thing is they fly really high and then they come crashing down to earth.

So getting the hook, I think is nice. This could fall, we could fall on our faces here, but I don't think there's enough games that we really like other than this one. So I'm fine at least advancing it to the next round. Yeah, also Mike McDaniel is fantastic as a spread coach, by the way. Yeah, yeah, he's the man. All right, let's advance it.

Miami's maybe in. Speaking of very good coaches, how about Antonio Pierce and Shane Steichen? The line in Raiders Colts. Uh, let's see what the latest is here. Three and a half. I don't know. Three and a half. Yeah.

For the Colts. I mean, it's the, it's the Colts, right? I think it would be the Raiders for me. Really? Yeah. I mean, I just think the Colts aren't good. Like, I think they're just, I think they would be the Raiders for me. Really? Yeah. I just think the Colts aren't good. I think they're just – Are the Raiders any good?

The Raiders scored six points offensively against the Chiefs. Yeah, and they took it to them. They shut down the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Is that a function of the Raiders being really good or the Chiefs just being really bad on offense this season? I mean, the Colts did just lose to the falcons by 20. uh they lost to jake browning by 20. uh they haven't really had a solid win i mean pittsburgh but it was against rubisky like they haven't had like they haven't beaten anyone good this year um so the raiders i mean it's basically

just a play on the number i think that I just don't think the Colts are very good frankly like that's that's the extent of my analysis and I think that I'm laying three and a half to a team that granted we might be buying high on I mean the Raiders they've won you know they beat the Chiefs and put up 60 against the Chargers but uh the Raiders are very up and down they're it's true this is catching lightning in a bottle a bit but uh the raiders are very up and down there it's this is catching lightning in a bottle a bit but uh definitely not the colts this is maybe we're all net out here let's follow me we can skip this game i don't i don't i don't have a great idea incredible amazing uh let's go to maybe another skip uh maybe not though the patriots are going to Buffalo. Man, has this one moved around all week.

Latest I am seeing, Jeff, is 14. Wow. Did something happen? Did someone get hurt today or something? Because this was at 12 all week. No, I think people realize Buffalo is going to just destroy them. I don't feel great about 14, but I'm going going to take it at 13 and a half or 13, 14.

It's getting a terrible number right now. Yeah. That's a pass. No chance. We're taking the 14. Wow. No. Interesting.

So they just can't book a Patriots bet. All right. If it was a 13, would you take him Buffalo? I don't know. I have a, there's something, something going on in New England right now.

I feel like they're just playing a bit better than they're probably getting credit for in Buffalo. Buffalo, everyone's like, oh, they almost fell on their face last week. It's like they still can fall on their face. So I would like them at 10. I don't know about 12, 13, 14. I'm out.

Okay. But we missed that one anyway. Maybe saved us from ourselves there. Curious if you like a side here in what is essentially the NFC South championship. The Saints are going to the Bucs. I think this is still at three. No, it's two and a half now. Two and a half?

Okay, then we have to do it, right? Yes. Okay. A lot of smart people that I follow are on the Saints. I don't get it, buddy. The Bucs are the play here. Everyone all year. Everyone's loved the Saints this year.

And like, why? Dude, they're 4-10-1 against the spread. They're worse than the NFL against the spread. Tampa Bay is 10-5 against the spread. Tampa Bay is a better football team right now. People are taking Derek Carr on the road as a road dog trying to win. Like, absolutely not. Absolutely not.

And we get a better number today, too. Tampa Bay is playing some legitimately good football right now. They win this game. They're not in Falcons lose, by the way. The division's over. The Bucs win the division this weekend. Yeah, dude. The Bucs are playing good. we're gonna get bigger make those credit here they're playing good football i'm not been in derrick carr in this spot absolutely not man and two and a half even better

give me two and a half we got a better number i'm glad to take tampa bay here i'm with you man i think that we're we're catching a really good team that people don't totally believe in. And I think, like, I don't know what it is, but the center of gravity for the Saints all season has just been like, oh, yeah, they're the best team. Like, they're going to win this division. Like, it feels like they've just been getting so much credit for no reason.

Derek Carr, they lost the first game to the Bucs this year. Dennis Allen, atrocious against the spread in the division in his career. Every single statistical trend for Dennis Allen and Derek Carr are all horrible, which is why I feel like we bet against the Saints a bunch. 6-14-2 against the spread in his career, Dennis Allen. I don't know. I just don't see it. The Bucs are hot.

Everything's clicking for them on offense. They're pretty healthy. The Saints have been sort of hot. Everything's clicking for them on offense. They're pretty healthy. The Saints have been sort of banged up all year, especially on offense. Two and a half is great. I love two and a half. Let's lock that one in. Lock it in. Lock it in.

Tremendous. I feel like we're in a decent spot here. We still have five or six games left. Next up, my hapless commanders are hosting uh the 49ers uh this will be a beat down the question is no how big pass it let's just let's just move it along buddy 13 and a half is the line as we're looking at it uh no no chance no no no chance no no no no chance no no um if anything we'd be betting the niners no chance yes yes yeah maybe sam howell again we'll see what it does jacoby bursak is named the starter and then he gets like hurt in the injury report today or something yes he is he injured his hamstring

in practice when he realized what was in front of him so we might just see sam howell feds the wolves but that's very good but i hope that dallas has to play for something next week so washington will just get murdered twice in a row um all right enough commanders talk uh titans texans where's the sexy hit segue uh looks like cj stroud will be back this week um so the line reflects that and let me see the latest there is a still this is at four now wow all right so houston is like four i don't think i can take either side of this i think the side is houston stroud is back but we don't bet against rabel very often for this exact reason because his teams just yeah continually fight and claw they said i

think will levis is going to start in this game i saw before recording so um they just fight and claw man and battle like i just i just don't want to bet against um that team right now but yeah i don't either strap stroud one and five is a favorite uh it seems like he might if if this team weren't in the playoff mix I just have a feeling he wouldn't be back this season right like it just seems like he's coming back and they're not sure if he's playing it it's like this is a head injury and if he's not like cleared ready to go right away it usually means like he's working through it still so I this just this feels a little fishy to me so I agree that we should pass um okay only three games in the four o'clock eastern window

i have a feeling we're going to be picking at least one of them maybe it's this one steelers this one steelers are going to seattle the seahawks are laying three and a half what side are you on i mean do you even have to ask it It's Pittsburgh. This is another hold your nose and bet it side. Obviously, it's Mason Rudolph. We've seen this ride before. But the Steelers, I know. But basically, would you be on Seattle here? No, I don't think anyone.

Yeah, I mean, fair enough. The Steelers get the extra day of rest. Here's my problem with this. It's like, isn't it the time to fade the Steelers after a big win, feeling good about themselves, going across the country? You just suck it up and take the Steelers and say, and be like, this is what we do. We just take Pittsburgh all the time.

The thing is though, is like their, their offense looked pretty good last week. The Steelers, or I'm sorry, the Seahawks, after a straight up win Pete Carroll's trends have been really poor when they've won a game and now they have to win a second game. Geno, after a straight-up and against the spread win, is 5-7-1 against the spread. And the Seahawks are 12-12-1 after a straight-up win at home. This stat is really confusing. I think I said it right uh but

yeah and the Steelers like you know I just don't think I don't think anybody wants to take them once again I think everybody thinks that Seattle is a better team than they actually are but the Steelers are going to win another game right they're going to go nine and they're going to go nine and eight they're either going to win this week or they're going to beat Baltimore next week and yeah no you're right you know this is they or they're going to beat Baltimore next week. No, you're right. They're pretty even teams. Seattle, I don't know. The problem with Pittsburgh, I think, is that they still have some injuries on defense,

but I don't know. And Seattle, by the way, has not played clean football for like two months. No, they haven't. Tomlin's the best coach in the NFL against the spread since 2018 with extra rest, 14-6-1. Rudolph 3-0 in those games. So, I don't know. It's not pretty.

It's just playing the number. It's playing the spot. I don't love it, but I think you got to at least consider it when you're getting the hook with Tomlin. Yeah. All right. I feel like we have a lot of maybes here.

I want to write them all down because I know you're going to have a take here. I mean, I have five I think we're going with, so I have five written down. Okay. Let's do this one, and then we can – well, we only have two games after this, so let's just do them one and then we can well you know two games after this so let's just do them then we can recap the cincinnati bangles are going to kansas city you mentioned to me right before we went on air that you are going to try to talk to me in the kansas city here the lion is now six and a half for kansas city who is i don't think ever covered a spread that big in the patrick mahomes. That's only half a joke.

So go ahead. Okay, well, the under is what I love, and I took 45.5. I'm actually surprised when it first came out that it's this high. It's at 44 now. The under, I don't understand. This game's going to be 17-14. No, I mean, look, the side is the Chiefs here, I think, if you're taking a side, Matt, because the Bengals, the Jake Browning thing is done now.

Like, it's over with, right? We had the fun for a couple weeks. We saw last week. It's petered out. But you rarely get the Chiefs in a situation. I talked to some people that have this number, this true number, a neutral field is 9 or 10. If they were playing neutral field, it'd be 9 or 10.

It's 6.5 right now. So you're getting a ton of value based off what the power rankings would have these teams. The problem is the Chiefs are playing like shit, so I don't really trust them in this spot. But I think the Chiefs are certainly going to play here at 6.5. But again, I don't really feel great about it per se. Yeah, that's interesting um i mean this line moved i mean this was this was pretty low and then it just keeps getting bet up and bet up and bet up

and there's actually a seven and a half out there now um so they must just be taking non-stop chiefs bets the problem isn't necessarily that i think that that's the wrong side it's just that they never ever decisively win even if they win well not now cleanly like they they dick around and you know they will come back and they will have a game where it looks like they get right it does feel like the Bengals are a team that they would love to do that against but they would have loved to do it against the Raiders too. And, you know, I don't know. Like maybe this is the Kelsey game.

Like maybe this is the week that would make certainly a lot of his fantasy owners happy in championship week. But like they've got to get something going and they're running out of time. So I don't know if I can trust them laying on touchdown plus, but I would listen to you on on them if you were feeling it but uh it's pretty amazing that the line has moved this much so i i believe as we've been talking uh trevor lawrence has been ruled out so that's six that we got wow we're locked into six everyone heard it first it happened it happened we locked it in it's locked right now

there's still a five and a half like it's still we're we're we're we're fine um my offshore i'm trying to get the i'm trying to see what the offshore is at because i wish i had access to but i mean you see like i mean it's four and a half of draft kings now four and a half at DraftKings now, four and a half at Superbook, four and a half at Circa, four at Bookmaker. It's pummeling very fast. Interesting. Huh. That's going to be the first game Trevor Lawrence has missed,

I think, in his career, no? I think, but we have six, so too bad. Too bad. But we have six, so too bad. I was just reading our text and saw that Hank asked if I wanted to address the background baby noise. So what would I do? Give the baby to another house? What should I do about that, Hank? Like when my dog is going crazy, just put him outside.

Just put the baby outside. Yeah, just let him go out on the street. They do that in Norway, right? They do that when they put the baby outside. Yeah, just let him just go out on the street. They do that like in Norway, right? They do that when they put the babies outside to sleep. Works for them. That's right. I'm sure that would go great in Los Angeles. All right.

The Chargers are playing the Denver Broncos who we have discussed at length. Easton Stick versus Jared Stidham. Who's excited? Feel the excitement. Yeah, we'll pass on that one excitement I don't even care what the line is like what who's got an edge here uh three and a half is the line for Denver I guess it would be the Chargers but like no thank you uh Sunday night game no Monday night game this week uh ring in your New Year's Eve with Jordan Love and Jaron Hall. Is that who it is?

Was that the guy's name? The Vikings' new quarterback? This has moved to a pick. You can probably find a plus one for Green Bay out there. How do you bet this? I mean, I think – You don't. I don't mind Green Bay, but, like, how do you bet this?

You just don't. We just skip it, right? Yeah. Look, the thing about Nick Mullen's man we we've been a missile i mean he is an atrocious turnover machine yes like it is embarrassing how bad and like you just can't play that guy you just can't play him no you can't i i think i would maybe trust green bay's infrastructure here um but like joe barry's not going to kill them this week it's it's a fourth string quarterback but uh yeah that's a pass so why don't you recap what we've got because i think

we have something to eliminate okay so this is what i have for our five you you let me know giants plus six dolphins plus three and a half carolina plus six got the six Dolphins plus 3.5 Carolina plus 6 Tampa Bay minus 2.5 Pittsburgh plus 3.5 The other options we had were Detroit plus 5.5 Vegas plus 3.5 and that's really it. Yeah, let's take

Vegas out. So I don't want to put Detroit I wouldn't put Detroit over any of these other five we have. I don't think I would either. Carolina's a lock because we got an amazing number. Well done by us. Tampa's a lock. I think it's between Pittsburgh and Detroit probably.

I think we like Miami enough. I think we like the Giants a lot. I think we just roll with the i think we like the giants a lot i think we just i think we just roll we just roll with uh with the with the tomlin uh the tomlin underdog man so we roll with that fine with me fine with me jeff right if we go three and two we're uh we're still we're still stacking up the wins so let's uh i love it all right right. Carolina, Giants, Dolphins, Bucs, Steelers. Giants, Dolphins, Carolina, Bucs, Steelers. All right, guys. We'll be back in a second.

We're going to talk vaulted right now. Just stick around. If you're listening to us, you'll hear a read. We'll come back on Twitter. Stay tuned. Back in a few seconds, Let's talk some vaulted. We're back. Matt, let's get to the vaulted.

V-L-T-E-D. Go to the vaulted app. Go find my pool. Jeff with a G. G-O-F-F. You enter the pool. There's 20 questions. You agree or disagree.

You put a confidence meter 1 to 10. The winner, you're free to enter. Winner cash prize, $4 first place, 75 second place, 25 third place. Go to the app. Enter. It's a ton of fun. It's a great way to follow an NFL Sunday. And on this Sunday, Matt, they went with all numbers, all sides.

Will a team cover? Will they not cover? It's right up our alley. So, guys, we already have this done, right? We have right here, right? The Colts will cover against the Raiders. We disagree on that one. We get Jacksonville will cover 6.5 against the Panthers.

Disagree, Matt. We get a great number. Thank you, Vaulted. The Bucs will cover against the Saints, against the Panthers. Disagree, Matt. We get a great number. Thank you, Vaulted. The Bucs will cover against the Saints minus two and a half. Yes, we agree. But guys, you can do all these games. So if a game like myself, who I am not going to put the Chiefs in our contest, but I can say here the Chiefs will cover six and a half against the Bengals, Matt,

I will agree they will cover six and a half against the Bengals. Yeah, you've got your chance to do it there. We should go head to head in this. I think I'll probably zag against you and take Chicago laying the two and a half. And I will probably take, who's another one? I think I'll probably take the 49ers laying the 13 and a half against Washington also. And the ultimate move of self-hatred so yeah really fun this is uh this is great this is right up our Alley um let's see who who can beat us this week because these are yeah this is our bread and butter right here so maybe you'll catch us on uh on only a mediocre week which for us is like I don't know

what 55 that's mediocre week for us uh Carolina by the way down to four week, which for us is like, I don't know, what, 55%? That's a mediocre week for us. Carolina, by the way, down to four now. So good for us. Good for us, Matthew. Good for us. All right, guys. I'm excited that we find an alternate bet there in case you guys want. Sorry.

No. We bet it live. We got the six. Sorry. Sorry, guys. Too bad. Too bad. It's just our year.

This is what happens in 2023. Hopefully 2024 remains the same. Guys, have. Too bad. Too bad. It's just our year. This is what happens in 2023. Hopefully 2024 remains the same. Guys, have a great new year. Always enjoy doing this with you and Matthew. You entered the 2024 as a dad. I love it so much. It's a lot of fun.

I'm not getting the latex messages anymore, so I feel like the baby's sleeping, which is good. Good news. It's good news, everyone. We're getting there. All right, which is good. Good news. It's good news, everyone. Getting there. We're getting there. All right, guys. We've done it. Happy New Year, everyone.

Always enjoy doing this show. Please rate, review, subscribe. Give us your feedback. Always love to hear that. Go to Vaulted app and play with us this weekend in the Vaulted pool. We'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. We're going to skip Monday. It's New Year's.

We'll be back on Tuesday to cover the National Football League. We'll have some playoff reaction as well. Remember, Washington, Texas, Alabama, and Michigan. Talk to you guys on Tuesday. Take care, everybody. you