Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets for NFL Week 18

Episode Date: January 6, 2024

Geoff and Matt are at sitting at 58% on the season. Tune in for the last week of their five best bets to finish strong with the boys.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to Jeff Schwartz's Smarter Than You. I'm Jeff Schwartz. It is Friday, January 5th, and it's the final weekend of the National Football League. And on Fridays, we preview all of the games, all the National Football League teams, and we do so with our friends from the Vaulted app, the home of my season-long game,

giving out $14,000 of cash prizes in my pools with $5,000 allocated on the final pool season of the day of the big game. That's VLTED. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, which we'll do at the end of the show. We'll participate in my cash prize pools on any of your fees and prove you're smarter than your friends

by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. As you guys know by now, I have my pool each week on the Vaulted app. Go find the pool. That's Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. Free to enter. 20 questions. You agree or disagree with them.

And you set a value of 1 to 10 on your confidence. And the winner gets $400. Second place gets $75. Third place gets $25. Free to enter. If you beat me in any of the weeks, you enter the big game pool on the final football Sunday of the season. And we will talk about the ones that we like in the pool from this week. Later in the show,

Matt, our record is being disputed right now by some internal calculations. We're either 58% or we're either 59%. I don't know what it is. And so we'll figure it out as we go. I know that I have us down for 49 and a half points on the contest that I play. And I believe I have one win extra on our show than I have on the contest because I got a different number on the contest, if that makes sense.

So I think that like we're – the point is we're going to face with a winning record. And historically, me and you have done very well in Week 18. Because Week 18 is a week where you don't overthink it, guys. Don't overthink it. Just don't. I'm going to give you a stat at the top of this. I'm sure you have this stat. I'm going to do this now.

We're friends of the Action Network. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need a win over the final two weeks of regular season are 164 against the spread. It's profitable to bet against the teams that have to win in week 18 because guess what, Matt? You have to win in week 18 to get in the playoffs. You're probably not very good. You're just okay. There's no guarantee you're going to win that game. So starting with that premise, Matt, fire away, buddy. How are we doing?

Good, man. Good to see you. I can't believe this is the last regular season podcast that we leave the show with such a good record, around 10 games over 500 over 500 which is awesome i can't believe we're here it feels like the season just kind of started and we're just uh but it's time to say goodbye to some of these teams you know any we we can debate whether we're betting the panthers one last time if we have it in us uh that would be maybe our first win of about 15 tries um but yeah man it's been fun it's been been a great year

I'm curious to see how our futures bets look I'm sort of glancing at that also um but yeah thanks for listening to everybody and hopefully we can give you one more profitable week here um let's start with the game uh in almost exactly 24 hours tomorrow. That is Pittsburgh at Baltimore, a game that always, always has some fireworks, no matter who is playing. This one, I think, is definitely going to be on our list. I'm curious if you agree. I have, there's, I see one three and a half right now at DraftKings. So let's lock this in right now at Baltimore plus three and a half.

I'm going to make this point at the top of this show, guys. Just listen to this carefully, okay? So you have a game day roster out of 48 guys, all right? So think about that. You have a regular roster of 55 and a game day of 48.

So you only sit seven players at the most. And a lot of times it's just five players. There's only 53 on the roster. You can have up to 55 on, you call up two practice squad players. So think about the Ravens. Lamar Jackson's not going to play. All right? The left tackle's probably not going to play.

Kyle Hamilton's not going to play. Maybe Odell doesn't play. And one more player. Matt, that's it. The rest of the team is playing. It's not going to play. Maybe Odell doesn't play. And one more player. Matt, that's it. The rest of the team is playing. It's not like college football when the rest of the team's like a bowl game. Everyone just sits out of the bowl game. The rest of the team has to play.

If they're going to play, they're going to play to win. They're going to play their rivals, the Steelers. They want to ruin their season. They want to ruin their season they want to ruin their season Mike Tomlin is a road favorite absolutely not no chance in hell no chance and Baltimore plus three and a half we still get it three and a half right now did not help us last week with Carolina but um I am all over the Baltimore plus three and a half train we can lock that one in yeah if you don't listen to any more of this

show just make this bet and thank us later um if you go back in time and other other people have pointed this out um but in 2019 uh the steelers were going into this exact game with Baltimore the Ravens had clinched the one seed Lamar was the MVP they were resting some guys the Steelers were Road favorites uh they came in with their third string quarterback at the time it was duck Hodges RG3 was the starter for the Ravens uh the Steelers needed to win and instead baltimore won 28 to 10 at home it's the exact same scenario and when you look at this like we were texting about this one earlier the ravens this is like what they do right like they have like a whole roster full of guys who show up for pre-season games because they're so deep like they care about these kinds of games

you mentioned the rivalry pittsburgh you know yes they care about these kinds of games you mentioned the rivalry Pittsburgh you know yes they have more to play for we already mentioned that stat off the top like all these things kind of align and the other thing is like you mentioned the guys who aren't going to play like so Lamar won't play Ronnie Stanley won't play whatever like let's remember that Tyler Huntley is a Pro Bowl quarterback himself even though that's kind of a silly you know technicality at this point yeah but it's not like they're benching everybody like they still have to play like Jadavion Clowney is going to play like most of the offensive line Linderbaum's going to play like Gus Edwards is going to play so they have a real team that can

go out and beat the Steelers um and would love, but they don't even need to beat them. They just need to lose by a field goal. So love Baltimore here. That's enough of that one. One down and four to go. The next game on Saturday is another big divisional game with playoff implications, and that's the Texans at the Colts. This has moved around a bunch this week. As I see it now, the Texans are laying a point to a point and a half on the road.

Interesting game. Yeah. So a couple things. Again, Week 18, there's a lot of trends. Our friend John Ewing. So 2005, teams who spread and moved by one or more points in their direction in the last game of the season have gone 44% against the spread. So that includes this number going from Houston opening –

excuse me, from – Houston opens a dog, correct? And now they're now a favorite. So that goes in the direction. They have covered 44% of games when this happens, Matt, in the last one of the season. Now, this game matters, right? The winner of this game is inside track to the wild card at the minimum with the Jacksonville loss they might have to win,

or they will win the AFC South. I like Houston in this, but I don't really feel, like, compelled enough to make a case to put them in my top five. They're better than the Colts are Matt. They're better quarterback, better defense. But the trends sort of tell you to stay away from this game. I mean,

we haven't really followed the trends this year. And sometimes I think week 18, we have a, I don't know. It seems to the trends need to work very strong in week 18. Yeah, they do. As a refresher for those of you who don't have the NFL.com

playoff scenarios tab open, Houston flat out enters the playoffs if they win. The Colts need to win and Jacksonville to lose. So both, or no, they can just flat out win, actually, and get in the playoffs too. So lots of different scenarios i think this game comes down to like the colts are the colts real or not and they've had like so many strange games like no one's really held a close microscope to them i think because of how heroically they handled their quarterback situation this year

like if cj stroud is that guy he wins this game right it's it's not a great defense it's a divisional team it's Gardner Minshew like this is a playoff game if we love CJ Stroud we should bet him here I know that like we missed the number everybody bet that's Houston team on the other side of the zero I still think it's worth considering um simply because like all they have to do is just is just win against this cold seam that I you know I don't think either of us really believe in I mean the Colts lost the Falcons and the Bengals like got blown out by the Bengals and blown by the Falcons just the last month um so yeah yeah they're not a good team I'm good with it maybe here. I'm good with a maybe.

Yeah, all right. I'm not impassioned about it, but I think this is – you mentioned, like, let's not overthink things this week. Like, this one might fall into that category if we need a fifth at least. Okay, moving on to Sunday. The Browns, who are arresting Joe Flacco because he's too important to the team. Can't believe we're saying that. They're playing Cincinnati, who got eliminated by your Chiefs last week. Bets and money are about split here.

The line is seven for Cincy at home. Jeez. This is a ridiculous number, right? Like, this is – Ridiculous. It's a Browns plus seven, right? I guess. Matt, Matt, what would this number be if flaco was playing

yeah you're right it would probably be the it'd probably be a pick a pick it'd be brought to be favored by three in this game is joe flacco with 10 point line movement in the year of our lord 2023-24? My God. Right? I didn't really consider this because the Browns have – neither team has anything to play for, right? Do the Browns even have seeding to play for? No, they're the five seed.

Huh. Dude, the Browns are 8 in DVOA and the Bengals are 13. I mean, maybe to pick them, clearly favored by one. Dude, the Browns are 8 in DVOA and the Bengals are 13. I mean, maybe to pick them, clearly favored by one. But seven points, it feels like a lot of points, buddy. Yeah, I mean, Chase and Higgins are both a little banged up. I don't know. This feels like a weird weird number i i would entertain the seven here uh for cleveland it's just very strong who is starting for them well i mean they can only sit five guys basically right but i mean who's there

who is the quarterback we'd theoretically be betting on this week pj walker oh no it's jeff driscoll oh no that's why never mind cross it off see you later i was like i knew i had crossed this one off in my head for some reason but i had forgotten why and then i was like it's driscoll yeah we don't bet on jeff no i missed that sorry god bless that was that. God bless. That was outstanding. That was, you don't get analysis like that on any other podcast. Reminder, we're 10 games over 500. Here we go, Jeff. One last time.

No. Can we do it one last time? No. The Carolina Panthers are hosting the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs are laying four and a half there is no one worse as a road favorite ever maybe aside from mike tomlin then todd bowles and baker mayfield the panthers are getting 88 of the money and 59 of the bets the question is like do we do we go back once more into the Carolina breach, which I swear we have not hit once this entire season.

Carolina is 4-10-2 against the spread this season. I think we're on all 10 losses. I think so. I think we're 0-10 with the Panthers. I can't stomach it. I just can't, Matt. I can't do it. I mean, maybe if we don't have a 5, it might be hard to get 5, but like

I can't do it, man. I just can't. The 4.5 is very nice. I mean... I know, I know, I know. Yeah, alright. Let's put it as a maybe. I mean, some of these games, there's nothing even really

to say it's like the the bucks here like there's there's some good bucks trends that i can grab that are just like they they as i mentioned are just terrible uh whenever they have any expectations they absolutely laid a complete egg last week i know and i think that people just didn't watch that game against the saints because anyone would rather do anything than watch an NFC South game. Baker is 13, 26 and one as a favorite and he's five games over 500 as an underdog. But the buck's actually been good on the road this year, but Baker Panthers revenge game.

I don't know. Let's put it as a, maybe it's disgusting. I would, I would really rather not but uh we have to consider it okay uh okay next up is uh jets patriots uh i'm seeing one and a half you can get two and a half if you want this is hilarious because the patriots are gonna win this game and screw themselves uh potentially for a decade to come by not getting

a quarterback here. That's what I think is going to happen. If it's supposed to snow sideways in this game. So you like the Patriots in this game? Yeah. I just think this is... The Patriots have been playing reasonably well lately. I think that this is probably the Belichick swan song I think that

they are clearly not trying to tank they they could have beaten Buffalo last week like that sounds totally crazy to say but there are some really fluky bad plays that went against they had fought four turnovers and still almost won the game um this Jets team seems pretty checked out you mentioned the weather. If this is Belichick's last game in New England, you think he's going to lose to the Jets? Is that what we think is happening? No, that's a good point.

All right, how about we do a maybe on this one? Do you know the last time? So everyone knows that Belichick owns the Jets. Who was the president the last time that uh the the jets beat the patriots uh 2007. it was 2015. they played twice a year it was the obama administration was the last time that the jets beat the patriots this is like a ridiculously long streak that we're talking about here so i just don't see it ending with uh i don't know trevor simeon against on the road against bill belichick in a game where he's essentially like trying to leave his last impact

on new england okay it's a good case but it's But it does feel kind of true. Okay. I'll consider it. All right. NFC North now. Vikings-Lions. Lions off that bizarre loss. Vikings technically have a way into the playoffs still.

Lions laying three to three and a half. Nick Mullins is back in. Yeah, I see you shaking your head. Nick Mullins is a turnover machine Yeah, I see you shaking your head. Nick Mullins is a turnover machine. We just can't do it, Matt. We can't. I think the Lions bounce back. They're pissed off about last week, and the Vikings

are just out of the playoffs. They're just not going to... I can't do the Nick Mullins thing. Yeah. Detroit also feels like one of those teams that actually might care despite it being meaningless you know like they might be that team that's like hey we're still going to try to get the two seat or whatever it doesn't matter if the if if philly wins or or dallas wins like they just seem like the kind of team that will care about that kind of stuff.

So I agree. I think this one is a pass because we'd have to take Minnesota, and I don't like it. This one, though, the line has really moved in the other AFC South game. The Jags are going to Tennessee. The line, I'm seeing a four out there now. The Jags are laying four points in Tennessee. Go ahead.

We're just not getting the best of the number. That's the only problem. But Tennessee's the play here. Trevor Lawrence, questionable until game time as of right now. Even if he was playing, I mean, the number would go back to the five, which would be nice, Matt. But Tennessee's the play here. I mean, how long do we have to do this?

It's Mike Vrabel at home as a dog against a Jacksonville team that is not very good. Got back on track last week. It's just kind of back on track last week, but still not impressive in my opinion. They beat a Panthers team that stinks. The Titans are – they play hard, man. They're going to play hard in this game.

They're going to try to win this game. Matt, I like the Titans here. I mean, you knew that already. Yeah. Yep, I did. Just so we're clear here, in this spot, teams, it's a bunch of stats here. Like, bad teams who are playing a team that's, you know, this exact level of difference better, like, in terms of records.

This particular bet is a 72.3 against the spread winner according to our our buddy Evan Abrams so in this spot the uh the the Titans are and the Cardinals who we'll get to later are both hits in this like very specific week 18 trend um about these bad teams playing other teams that are fighting for the playoffs i think we have to take tennessee even though we missed the number uh i wonder if we can find like a four and a half out there somewhere i think that i only see if you here's the thing we obviously doing this now on on um friday if you listen on saturday sunday thank you um if you wait till sund or Sunday, thank you.

If you wait until Sunday, you'll get a better number when Trevor Lawrence plays. Yep, that's right. Just wait. Just wait it out if you like Tennessee. We've got to take the number we get now, but if you're a Tennessee Titans backer, I think you wait. Yeah, I like that. Yeah, for us now, we'll take the four i can't i can't seem to beat that um all right a game that i hope doesn't exist uh but will be aired on television in some

capacity the falcons and the saints probably maybe for the nfc south title depending on what happens with baker and the bucks uh the falcons are getting three points in new orleans everyone likes the falcons i god help us if we even try to pick a side in this one right there's no side that we have this this game is so depressing like what are we what are we talking about here okay who's going to watch this game who's not a Saints or Falcons fan? No one. I mean, literally no one. I mean, this is a Taylor Heineke versus Derek Carr showdown

for potentially the division, unless Baker Mayfield can beat Bryce Young. Like, what are we doing here? This is a fucking catastrophe. What are we doing here? This is a fucking catastrophe. You put it that way. What are we doing? And they're going to host the Eagles too. And they might beat the Eagles in the playoffs.

I don't think so. I think I just don't, I can't fathom that something like that. I think Tampa could make some noise because they can just score with Evans. But I just, these two teams are horrible. We, i don't think we've bet the falcons or the saints once uh falcons may we've been against the falcons a bunch i think this this game is horrible um speaking of horrible the commanders are hosting the dallas cowboys the cowboys 13 to 13 and a half point road favorites and they're getting not only the public, but also the sharp money.

No, no take for me here. I think I would feel comfortable laying it if you were, if you really wanted to get spicy. Wait, you lay with, lay with the Cowboys against your Manders. Dude, there's nothing left in Washington. There's nothing. If I were them, I mean, I don't think anyone

on that team is compelled other than contract incentives to try to do anything in this game. We shouldn't benefit. There's plenty more to do. Two months ago, I had a take of on Twitter where I was like, guys, Sam Howell's not the franchise quarterback. I was ago, I had a take of, like, on Twitter, where I was like,

guys, Sam Howell's not the franchise quarterback. I was like, you're a bum. He leads the NFL in passing. They were like, yeah, okay. He leads the NFL in interceptions and sacks taken as well. So, I mean, yeah, he's not good. Yeah, I'm probably with you on this one. Like, this is... The Niners were about this number last we

can cover it it took a little bit of time but they got there but also the only thing that the question about this game is that i could see the cowboys just being the cowboys and laying a complete egg in this game well they did last year they came to washington sam al's first start and they were big favorites they needed it for for playoff seating and and didn't get there okay so and washington we have we have we have uh johan dodson over 15 and a half uh receptions this year matt it was a sharp play i have plenty of i have plenty of real money tied into this bet also he has six targets his last three games and and three catches well he's at 47 right now i need four catches this weekend i mean they should sit mclaurin

first of all but they won't um when when brissette came in like the the ball moved because they threw to the good receivers. And that's the thing that is so baffling about the much-discussed Eric Biennemi. It's like, how many targets do we need to get to De'Ami Brown? Throw the goddamn ball to the two awesome receivers. Enough. Who do you want to coach that game? Who do you think is the coach next year of the Commanders?

Great question. I think the way they're going to do it is they're going to hire the face of the team, the head of the front office kind of deal. I don't really see a sexy coordinator candidate. This guy on the Lions that everyone loves, cool. I don't know like I I just don't feel like that's that's moving the needle so much I there's a name that I'm actually really curious that what your take is on him Jeff is is Raheem Morris um the Rams defense has way overachieved this year they have a contender for a defensive rookie of the year

they have a contender for a defensive rookie of the year um but raheem morris he was uh he he's a defensive coordinator now he was a head coach a long time ago um but he also was i just want i'm gonna look this up and get this right he was the past game coordinator for a kyle shanahan offense in atlanta where they went to the super bowl He was also the wide receivers coach for that team. So he knows both sides of the ball. He's been a head coach. He's been on a Kyle Shanahan team. He's been on a Sean McVay team. I kind of like a guy like that, honestly.

But I don't think he's getting a ton of buzz. But he's a guy I've been thinking about. Yeah, that'd be interesting. Look, here's the harder part about this i think for washington is hiring a defensive coach and drafting on quarterback is probably difficult to pull off right like you gotta hire the right offensive coordinator and that guy is good he leaves in two years, right, Matt? So, like, you need to – you might need to target offense if you're going to draft a quarterback. Put it like that.

I just don't know who those guys are that are left. I don't know either. I don't know either. Matt Nagy. That's sort of the thing. And I think that what ends up happening is there's basically, like, the times you get the McDaniel and the times you get the McVay and the Shanahan

it makes it all look so easy but like all these hand-picked guys like Kellen Moore is a good example like everyone loved Kellen Moore this year everyone thought like he's just gonna go the Chargers are gonna fly and then he's gonna get a head coaching job like there's more to it than you know is there a good scheme in place and you look at these coaches like I don't know like some of them it just makes sense like kevin o'connell and matt lafleur like it just they just seem to like kind of keep the tide rising um but sometimes it's like the tomlins who can just come in and you know with the variables who just keep it can kind of consistently yeah exactly like yeah part of a winning program like they have a

you know they brought in that offensive coordinator people are talking about slow like as potentially a guy also so yeah i don't know it's i'm glad i don't have to make that choice but i also am glad that the commander's job isn't like the worst job in the league uh anymore hopefully um maybe the worst job in the league but probably not is that'll be open is the chargers job uh the panthers definitely have that beat but that was my attempt at a segue chargers are hosting your chiefs uh laying three and a half for some insane reason obviously mahomes and kelsey are not gonna play in this um but like what are we doing the chargers by three and a half with easton stick against anyone should should we be talking about the Chiefs now?

Okay, so a couple things on this game. Travis Kelsey might play because he needs seven yards for another 1,000-yard season. He might just dress and get his reception and pack it on in. Also, he'd have more yards than last week when he got 16 yards in my fantasy football championship. Thanks, Trav. Thanks, buddy. I'm fine. I actually took the Chiefs' team total over 15 and a half.

I'm on Bear Bet's pod this week. It's my best bet. The Chiefs have played three games like this where they've had to rest. They had to, but they have rested starters in week 17. I played one of these games in 2013. We scored 24 points against the Chargers. Mahomes made his first start, Matt, in 2017, this exact game, 27 points. And then 2020, they played the Chargers at home and scored 21 points.

They're going to try to score. The issue I have, though, is that, like, they kind of stink on offense. Are they going to stink even more with Blaine Gabbert? You know, like, that's my only concern. But, again, like, defensively, they're going to sit Chris Jones and Snee and maybe Bolton. That's it. The rest of the good defense is going to play.

Matt, so Chiefs plus three and a half points. I'm with it, man. I mean, I'm with it. Where's the money at for this one? Great question. I'm with it. I think Eastman's stick is

a good question. Most of the public's on the Chiefs. Three quarters of the public are on the Chiefs and 60% of the money. Plus the hook, too. It opened a pick and the Chargers got three and a half points.

I don't know. Open a pick without Mahomes playing, essentially, this one it opened to pick them and church got three and a half open a pick without mahomes playing essentially and then it continued to yeah i mean i'll put the baby average not great but like what are we talking about with stick like i mean like a hundred percent he is yeah um yeah that's another maybe we're gonna have an interesting interesting Whittle down here um okay the because there's there's definitely one more game that we're 100 taking uh oh I think I know what it is though you know what it is you know what it is the Broncos are uh getting two and a half or three in Las Vegas they They're getting all the sharp money. Everyone loves Denver. Why?

I'm going to just stay away from this one. I have no feel for this game. I mean, Stidham on the road. I guess they're getting three points. I have no feel for this one. None. Do you? Yeah, I don't either.

No, if any, like, I don't like that I'm on the opposite side of all the sharps. Like, I just think that this game really matters to Pierce, but that's a little too easy. So let's pass that. Rams-Niners. Another game, weirdly, that the sharps seem to have an edge on with the Niners. The Rams are getting four and a half um in San Francisco there's been some talk that the 49ers are still

going to play some guys that's why it feels a little bit yeah I don't know though and uh you know obviously this is this is a Carson Wentz start for the Rams. So I think that just disqualifies us from even considering it. Um, but yeah, I think, I think this is just a total stay away. Like both of these, both of these teams are going to have a lot of variance in terms of like

who they play and what matters. So I'd be fine to just pass this one. Um, yeah, we should pass this one. I agree. Yeah. Okay.

All right. We have to do this one uh the eagles are winning five and a half points in new york yes to new york giants giants 100 of the play i have no idea why this line isn't isn't shorter okay um giants are 1000 to play for a lot of reasons one is they have been out of the playoffs for a while now i continue to play their asses off right look at the rams last week the eagles a couple weeks ago like they're matt they're trying to win games still like they have no incentive to lose games right they're out of the running for basically any of the top picks and the eagles just lost the cardinals at home. The Eagles continue to prove each week, Matt, they can't stop anybody. And Nick Sirianni said, their coach, at some point, he's going to score a board watch

and realize the Cowboys are beating the shit out of the Commanders and pull all the starters out of the game. So, like, this is, the Giants are good. Six and a half, six to me. Six is gone, unfortunately. Maybe everyone on a bunch of public plays pushes back to six at some point. But five and a half is absolutely the play here. 1,000% done, sold.

It's going to be a boring atmosphere in New York for this one as well. This is, yes, 100% Giants. Yep. Nothing to add, really. Tyra Taylor undefeated this year against the spread under Dayball 3-0-1. Giants way better as dogs. Eagles never great on the road at all

against the spread, at least. But yeah, especially not as favorites over a field goal. The only thing that concerns me in this and this is why we're gambling is like i'm not sure that the eagles are just dead and this game you know this guy is falling with the eagles but you know there's this worry for me that like they could just turn it on and find it and it's it's not likely and I'm this is this was the one I was referring to like this is in our five no no matter what but I just I really respect that team I respect how competitive they are and I feel like

they could just sort of say like hey let's beat the out of this team and let's get back to being the Eagles for the playoffs um and screw the scoreboard and all that stuff but that's hard that's hard to do i mean you've been part of teams i'm sure that have had that conversation with themselves like is that how realistic do you think that is realistic that what that they could just like turn it on in a game like this before the playoffs i'm not saying that a team like that. I've been on the, I've been on the giant side of this game. Like you just, you're just playing out the string.

No, Matt. I mean, the Eagles had an opportunity to be the two seed and blew a double digit lead to the Cardinals at home. They're what are they going to turn on? It should turn on last week. Fair,

fair point. Yeah. Well, this is in our five, no matter so uh yes love this one we have three that are bulletproof and then four that are in the maybe pile um let's see if there's any more left a couple of fun games to end the day um the bears and the packers in the possible justin fields bowl god this everyone is on the bears here 89 of the money is on getting three points in lambo reminder that this is another one of those like the packers totally own the bears they beat them earlier this season justin fields probably playing to stay iro fluce possibly playing for his job my favorite under bet of the year was the bears under seven and a half that's very much

in doubt at seven wins right now um i don't think we're taking this but i'm curious what side you're on well the packers defense is so bad i think you have to take the points if you're taking this game at all right and take the bears plus the three is my sense on this game but we have we have the bears under seven and a half wins so i'm not wager on the bears in this game. But we have the Bears under 7.5 wins, so I'm not wagering the Bears in this game. That's the thing about Week 18 too. There are some games where we'll get to Arizona, I think, next. We're like, I think Arizona might win that game. We're going to lose that win total, Matt, if they win that game.

And it's a bad spot to be in, I think. We're not hedging people. I don't think me and you are very often. But I think that that's a uh that's um i'm just not rooting for that to happen put it like that like i need the bears to lose we both need the bears to lose so i'm not taking bears plus three for that reason really just a personal reason i think bears plus three is a side though yeah i do too i actually am texting my friend should we just take the bears money line because? Because, I mean, they're probably...

The Bears have been the better team for the last month plus. Their defense has been good. Fields has really looked strong. They seem to have just coalesced, even though they were totally out of it for most of the season. They're a fun team. So I think everybody will be rooting for them to break the streak and screw the Packers, who, if I'm not mistaken,

I do have some playoff incentives here. It's so hard to keep track of these seven spots. All right, let's talk about the Cardinals. They're getting three points at home against Seattle. What do you think? I mean, all the trends say that this is the cardinal smash um so i mean i guess that would be the side again if you're just sort of not overthinking it but they're the public side this week though yeah they are the public side that tends to be like

when they're when they perform well um we definitely did not have to take this one. I know some sharps there on this one. I have not felt great about it, though. Yeah, I don't either. Cardinals won in 13 in their last 14 against the NFC West against the spread. Kind of weird. Yeah.

I need to stay away. i i don't i don't something about this is fishy to me i'm fine to pass it um well let's actually talk about this this last game on sunday night because it is definitely the main event of the week um The Bills are road favorites in Miami and getting all of the money. I see a plus three out there for Miami now. What do you think of this?

Last week or two weeks ago, I took Buffalo to win the AFC East at plus 265. Nice. I bet Miami plus three to try to middle. So that's personally what I've done. I'm trying to do a little middle. I hit both great.

If I lose the Miami one, I'll make money on Buffalo. I think Dolphins plus three is the play, Matt. The concern, obviously, is the injuries on the Dolphins side. It's a lot of injuries on the Dolphins side three is the play, Matt. The concern, obviously, is the injuries on the Dolphins' side. It's a lot of injuries on the Dolphins' side. They're very beat up. But Buffalo is just a team that's so up and down. They can play their A game, and they can win this game like they did the first time.

Or they'll sort of not play their A game and lose this game, Matt. So I lean Dolphins plus three here. I think everyone's picking Buffalo to win this game, which makes me feel more comfortable while taking the dolphins in this spot. Um, it's a standalone game, obviously on, you know, on, on, on Sunday night, final game of the season. But I think dolphins plus three is the side. What do you think?

Yeah, I think i do too um buffalo is is a is a super tricky team uh to wrap my head around we talked about them playing the patriots last week the bills game was similar like that or i'm sorry the chargers game was similar they came out here and did everything they could to lose to easton stick they smoked dallas they had that crazy game against the chiefs the crazy game against philly i just you never know who's going to show up for them and the thing is like with with the dolphins you actually kind of do know what team is going to show up when they're at home they're unbelievable at home um the i'm trying to get their splits. They got smoked last week, right,

which is typically the next week that those teams come back and play better? Yes. You definitely want to get them after a blowout loss. Yeah, there's great numbers for that. Tua is – I have too many numbers swirling around in my head. 18-7 at home against the spread. He's very good. He is 11-4 at home against the spread he's very good he is 11 4 and 1 against the spread against the afc east um buffalo yeah it's just like buffalo is

better at home as well they're better uh you know when they're big favorites they have a tough time when it's like actually gonna be a close game the thing that's you know you mentioned the injury is like tyreek's not the same uh the dolphins seem to completely fall apart when raheem mostert's not on the field in the red zone like they can just move at will and then they just kind of they don't know what to do when they don't have yeah their red zone weapon waddle it looks like he's questionable still but i just i don't know i i just feel like i feel like the dolphins are really at a buy low spot and buffalo everyone buffalo i think is the third best super bowl odds right now but they could miss the playoffs this is one of those chances where you could be just like buffalo

hype train could be way too high um so i'm fine with putting Miami in as home dogs here. Okay, so we have for sure Baltimore, Tennessee, the Giants. We need two out of what I wrote down. Houston, Carolina, New England, Kansas City, Miami. Carolina has to be in, right? Wow, you said that so forcefully. Do you actually mean it? I i mean it's the same play i feel worse about new england it's not a bad wager though i feel worse about houston i think rookie quarterback on the road in a playoff spot it's probably a rookie quarterback too

okay don't houston out chiefs i think you just throw the chiefs out i don't i don't know man I think. Rookie quarterback on the road in a playoff spot is probably a thing. Rookie quarterback, too. Okay, throw Houston out. Chiefs, I think you just throw the Chiefs out. I don't know, man. I mean. Okay. Yeah, we back and blame Gabbert in a meaningless game. Yeah, okay. Yeah.

Carolina, New England, Miami. We need two of three. Just personally, personally, I'd prefer to stay away from the Miami game. It's a national game, most important game of the day, and just take Carolina and New England. I'll be done with it. That's my personal opinion on that. I'm into that.

I'm going to double-check the New England line and see if it's moved because this is sort of moved around. I'm not convinced of today. I think we're taking New England, by the way. Yeah, it's not great. But, you know, it kind of is what we like to do here. Carolina, holy shit. Carolina is such a rough bet, man.

Both of these are such bad bets. Like, Zappi and Bryce. I think the Panthers might win the game outright if i'm being completely honest so i'm really comfortable with them with the four and a half the patriots are the patriots are gross but you know i think it's just like a one last hurrah for belichick and you know i think that that counts for something okay so we have Baltimore plus 3.5, Tennessee plus 4, the Giants plus 5.5, Carolina plus 4.5, and New England minus 1.5. Is that right right now? I think so.

Oh, boy. We're putting it on our record, by the way. Hank added two extra wins so we're 46 33 and 6 58.2 percent matt 58.2 percent very good very good well i think we have another winning week in us here and what a way to close it out with one more run at the Panthers. Oh, my God. So bad. All right. We'll take a quick break and get to our vaulted, and we'll call it a day.

All right, Matt. We're back with our vaulted pool predictions for the week of the vaulted app, VLTED. What season long game? Check out my vaulted pool. That's Jeff with the GGOFF. Find my pool. Enter my pool. 20 questions.

Agree or disagree. Set a point value between 1 and 10 of confidence. And it's free to enter. Winning entry, $400 for the week. You beat me and you enter the pool for the big game on the final nfl sunday of the season so matt let's talk about some of these that we like i'll put these predictions by the way that we made already in the show into vault app so they can be stored uh look we talked about this already we like to tie

into cover against uh jacksonville um derrick henry more rush yards than travis etn uh interest what do you think i think if etn has got to do more if lawrence is out right yeah um that's interesting i feel like i feel like it sort of depends who you like etn looked very good last week i think I would probably lean ETN because they're going to try to feed their stars a bit more. And who knows what the Titans game plan is. So, yeah, I think that makes sense. Okay. So, scrolling down a little bit here.

Taysom Hill will have more than half the total touchdown against the Falcons. I'm just disagreeing. Just immediate disagree. You have to. You have to disagree, right? You just have to. So it's so funny that you skipped to that one because I was trying to sneakily figure out

if my hypothesis was true here. And it's basically like if Taysom Hill is involved in the game, the Saints have a chance. And if he's not, they don't. I'm looking at some of their wins this year, and he didn't do much last week. I'm not sure if this theory is correct, but this is the kind of game where the Saints have to use him.

The Saints seem to have no plan in the red zone unless tasem hill has the ball in his hands and then everything seems to work so yeah i i think i might disagree with you here because i do think that they are going to try everything they can to win um that doesn't mean they'll succeed but i think i like tasem to go over his 0.5 touchdowns how dare you how dare you? How dare you? Justin Fields have more than half a rushing touchdown against the Packers. Absolutely agree on that. The Packers' defense stinks, and Fields has to run to it.

I think he only has five touchdowns in the last month. He's got to run to be part of that offense. I also like here, Matt, Stephon Diggs will have more receptions than Tyreek Hill. I disagree on that one. This is a Tyreek Hill game all the way, man. No waddle. It's Tyreek Hill with a bazillion catches. Yeah, man. Stephon Diggs.

I mean, that is honestly the story of Buffalo's season. He kind of fell out of their game plan. He was so involved in the beginning of the season. He fell out of their game plan and they started winning. I mean, you look at the last couple of weeks, four for 26, five for 29, four for 48, four for 24.

That's December. That's crazy. I mean, for a guy as prolific and as talented as he is. So definitely Tyree Hill to go more receptions than Diggs. Yeah. All right. Anything else you got, buddy? I like Raheem Mostert to go more receptions than Diggs. Yeah. All right. Anything else you got, buddy? I like Raheem Mostert to go over his half a touchdown against Buffalo

for everything I said. Like, I just think that if you like Miami, then you kind of have to like Mostert. And, yeah, I think that's a good one. I think there's definitely a bunch of these games here. Like, you can get a good number with the Browns six and a half um oh yeah yeah so really fun this vaulted pool i'm really i'm really glad we were uh we've been able to do it every week um there are a couple things jeff you mentioned uh our season-long futures there are a couple things that i just want to like have our

eyes on this week um the bears one i think is big we had we put 300 to win 300 uh they get for the bears to go under seven and a half that would make up for a lot if we were able to to cash that one um it looks like we're gonna hit there's also a nice one we had on saints no playoffs that one is it a plus 160 that's a really nice number um yes so i guess we have to kind of root against ourselves there with with baker mayfield um but you know desmond ritter is not going to play i think we should be able to cash his under dude he came out this week he got like 16 yards at the end of the game he's close we're like 60 yards away from hitting that yeah he's really close um there's the yeah i mean the johanotson one was one we really loved.

We'll see if we're able to catch that one. But there are a couple like, oh, Tyler Lockett. I think he's at like 835. We have him at 875. There's a couple that we're really going to have some fun that come down to the last week. So this week will make or break our futures. So good luck to us hopefully uh

hopefully you follow the winners and didn't take all of our losers but i think our under running it back experiment was a winner and the lamar the eight five the plus 500 lamar mvp one was good when we added yes yes we bet that we also bet the rams to make the playoffs in october um that's a nice check that was a good one. So whenever we do these in season, we tend to do pretty well on those. Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.

All right, everyone. Well, hope you enjoy your weekend of football. We have a National Championship game on Monday between Texas and Michigan. And Washington, I will preview that with Gabe on Monday, everyone. Stay tuned for that. I want to have my thoughts on that game as well. I think we might do a prize picks for that. That would be kind of fun for the championship

game. Stay tuned on Monday for that, guys. Have a great weekend of watching football. We'll be back next week and we'll talk playoffs, Matt, me and you next week. How about that? Some playoff football. I'm going to take the whoever the Bucs are hosting. Just um whoever the bucks are hosting just plus the

points bucks plus the points no just can we pre-bet it no i love that i love that hey there's there's something a buddy of mine sent me this one really quick yeah um afc to win the superbowl plus 100 nfC is minus 125. Pretty interesting. Yeah, but you would probably get the Ravens better than plus 100 in the Super Bowl. Right, but you're also getting the Chiefs, the AFC East. Yeah, but you'd get better numbers in the Super Bowl though, wouldn't you? I guess.

I guess, yeah, if you spread it out. Yeah, I guess you're probably right. Kansas City in the Super Bowl is plus 140 to win the Super Bowl, right? Is that really it right now? No, I'm saying you said plus 100 to win the Super Bowl for AFC, right?

I'm saying if they played the Niners in the Super Bowl, what would they be money line? Right. No, yeah, you're probably right. I they be money line right no i yeah you're probably right i just mean it for right for right now but um you're yeah but the future is definitely right the future's not a good bet because in that game you could just take the better number you're basically saying that the your bet is that the ravens are the favorite against someone in the afc you get a better number now it's basically your bet yeah i think you're

right. I think that's a, I think you've successfully shot down an extremely entertaining bet that I should not make. Thank you. No, don't make it. Don't do it, buddy. Well, my internet just cut out, so that might signal that it's time to end the show when I'm making

up bets. All right, everyone. Way to save my money. We will talk to you guys next week take care everyone have a good one you Bye.