Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets for NFL Week 2

Episode Date: September 15, 2023

Week 2 is upon us and its time to see what Geoff and Matt will over react to! They are here to run through every game of the week and chose their 5 favorite bets of the week. Plus, stay tuned for Geoff and Matt revealing their new weekly cash give away brought to you by our friends at VLTED.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday september 15th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz is smart on you we're live on twitter and on youtube and everywhere that you listen to your favorite podcasts and we're brought to you by the vaulted at the home of my season-long game giving out fourteen thousand dollars of cash prizes in my pools with five thousand allotted to my final pool of the season which will be the day of the big game that is vaulted v-e-l-L-T-E-D, and it's a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends and me by using the Vaulted Challenge feature.

I'll have my own pool in Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win those cash prizes. We gave away $500 last weekend. $500, $400 to the first place winner. And the only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because guess what? I'm smarter than you. Maybe not in week one, though.

I had a tough week one, Matt. We're going to turn that around. I'll also be using Vaulted to store my five favorite predictions that we get on this show by the end of the week. So join Vaulted. You can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions. Or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football. Go download Vaulted. You can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions. Or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football. Go download Vaulted. That's V-L-T-E-D.

And remember to use my code Jeff. That's G-O-F-F. So you can see my predictions and play along. Welcome into the show as we do every Friday before a National Football League Sunday. We go through all the games left. Obviously, it was a game last night not much to talk about there we make our five favorite wagers of the weekend we'll put them on the vaulted app for you guys to see as well we're three and two last week matt three and two hey man not bad i

don't care how they come i don't care how they come because we have the jets in that in that football game i'll take three and two every week don't care how how it happens buddy three and two every week that means at the end of the year will be 17 games over 500 or 18 games over 500 we love that that's an extremely profitable uh season for us let's do it and this week is stinky already week two's already stinky matt and that's the harder part about playing and wagering the national football league playing obviously very tough, I meant wagering, is that it's just each week is like this. Trying to find five is very difficult.

So I also like doing the vaulted pool. You go and there's 20 questions this week, and you can just agree or disagree, and it makes it a lot more fun than trying to wager on some of these games. So let's start with the slate of NFL games. Again, we'll try to get to all of them. Some of them are just extreme passes, not really interesting to us. And it makes it a lot more fun than trying to wager on some of these games. So let's start with the slate of NFL games. Again, we'll try to get to all of them. Some of them are just extreme passes, not really interesting to us. If you want to find a podcast that does all that, I don't know.

Someone else is not mine. All right, Matt, let's go to the first game of the week. Well, really quick, the first game of the week was last night. I mean, maybe while people still join on YouTube and Twitter, by the way, or X, whatever the fuck this thing is called now. If you want to give the people a little bit of a chance to join us still. Any big takes from last night's game? I mean, it seemed like it was kind of a blowout the whole time. And then it ended up being sort of a, it ended up feeling kind of close.

Thanks to the sort of the spirit of my guy, Kirk Cousins, keeping him alive. My favorite mush, bet the Eagles. I was on the Vikings plus six and a half, and I loved it. Woke up in the morning to cover. The Vikings was the play, by the way. They fumbled the ball four times in the first 31 minutes of this game. They were the play in this game.

I think the takeaway is two things. One, Eagles passing game, they lost Shane Steichen. It doesn't seem as good through two games. Obviously, home run to Smith was very well done. Jalen Hurts took way too many hits early in the game. It did not like that. Eagles are fine. It's Eagles, Niners, Cowboys in the NFC.

The Vikings, though, Matt, that's what we talk about, right? I think we have their over, so it's not great for their over win total. But regression happens. We talk about this, right right they won 10 games last season by one score they're now oh and two in 2023 one score games this is what happens in the national football league you guys think we're kidding and we hate your favorite football team we say these stats to you this is what happens the next season you just don't get the bounces and if you're not good enough as a team to overcome those things you're going to lose these games and so that's my takeaway i don't really change my opinion about either of those teams um but the vikings are getting that

that you know that that bad luck they didn't get last season yeah they they really what is that seven turnovers or something and in two games i think so yeah just really ugly turnovers i mean i was really impressed i think it was 27 to 7 right or something like that and then yes it was cousins through that third down touchdown to addison it was just sort of like hey this team this is kind of what they do like they never go away so i still they have a they have a crazy schedule coming up it's it's not great that they started o and two uh because they have a long way ahead i still i feel like we were kind of still right on this team but you know obviously we knew that they weren't gonna be as lucky as last year but i still have faith that they'll be able to turn it around i think they hit on on the addison pick

problem is they can't run the ball and and that's uh that's yeah yeah and madison is clearly not uh quite adequate quick replacement yet but uh it's good win for the eagles they uh they have a pretty light schedule now so they could they could start to run away in a hurry um but let's talk about the rest of the week we have five picks to make jeff uh it's much it's a much different board than last week but i have a feeling we're gonna end up going down a lot of the same paths unfortunately buddy making the same uh heartbreaking picks that we made last week so uh let's look let's start with uh the chargers and the titans both teams winless um that's going to be in tennessee but the chargers are road favorites. They're laying three in Tennessee, and they're just begging us to take Mike Vrabel again, right?

Yeah, they are. But, man, I don't know. I don't know, Matt. Titans covered for us last weekend with five field goals. Five field goals. Their offense, which is what I thought wasn't going to be any good, is not any good. It's just not any good.

They're begging us to take Tennessee here. You can't bet on the Chargers. to take tennessee here um you can't bet on the chargers they're untrustworthy like you just can't do that right like we understand that by now but i don't think you've been in tennessee here because they can't move the football matt they can't score points if if the chargers score 24 points they probably cover this game there's been a reoccurring problem for the titans and it's again we we love mike raybould as a coach we're very supportive of the tit. And, again, we love Mike Vrabel as a coach. We're very supportive of the Titans.

They cover a lot of these type of games. But the Chargers desperately need a win in this game. They lost week one in a way that they probably shouldn't have lost. The defense was bad. Offensively, they were fine. But they look no different than previous years of the Chargers, right, which is good, but maybe not good enough. I think they win this game. I think they cover this this game i'm not putting any money anywhere near this game

how do you feel about it i have a feeling when we get through this whole list we're not going to necessarily love five and this is one that we just kind of have to put into the discussion just based on the fact that it's freeball and just based on the fact that it's the chargers um it is crazy that you know the chargers could be oh and two after this and imagine what a catastrophe that would be um titans you know they looked bad last week but they went on they went on the road tanahill looked terrible like i'm willing to bet that they'll probably like come back to a little bit closer to what we're used to with them the chargers every single year they have like the worst run defense in the league yeah could you see this one just being like an under and

derrick henry just kind of grinding it out and it being a one score game late like probably um so i i wouldn't be if i have a feeling this would be our fifth or sixth um or maybe seventh so i'm willing to put the titans as maybe in in the event that we don't have better ideas, which might be a spoiler alert for how I feel about the week. I'm fine with Tennessee plus three here. I mean, it's just like – and this is the thing about the National Football League, Matt, wagering on it.

We've done this podcast now for years. It's like they're just weeks. They're just these stinker games. You just sort of like have to do it. Like you just like have to suck it up. And they're going to be – I think there's a couple other wagers we're gonna have to take this week because that's the way it works and i know that's not very fun sometimes but it's the way it is all right let's get to our next game here yeah let's do that so next up packers at

falcons man this this line has been all over the place all week. The Packers in the contest, super contest, are one-point road favorites. The line as it stands now, I don't have it in front of me. Green Bay plus one and a half. Green Bay plus one and a half. Plus one and a half. This bounced back. The Falcons were favored yesterday, so this has really moved quite a bit. I'm curious where you are on this. Well, I'll take, I don't know, again, we're kind of, I think we're taking the best line as possible. I'm taking Green Bay plus one and a half.

It's one of my favorite of the week, Matt. The Falcons won last week 24 to 10, all right? If you had to guess how many first downs the Falcons offense had, what would you guess they had in this game? Jeez. Probably, I don't know, 20? 13. 13. 13.

They had 220 yards on offense. They were 2 for 10 on third down and were plus 3 in turnover margin. And the game was 17-10 in the fourth quarter. They're not playing a rookie quarterback this weekend. They're playing the Packers, who are a good football team. They're a good football team. They're very talented. Their offensive line looks back and healthy. Defense, we know they're very talented and they're good football team. They're a good football team. They're very talented. Their offensive line looks back and healthy.

Defense, we know they're very talented and they're good on defense. Jordan Love, just run the offense, man. Just run the offense. I do not understand the love for the Falcons that we're seeing on social media after playing a rookie quarterback in his first road start in a game that the score was not really as lopsided as the game was played. So I'm all in the Packers here. Desmond Ritter was 15 of 18 for 115 yards.

Like, come on. Come on. It's interesting, Jeff. I assumed that you'd probably be on the Falcons, but I'm also seeing some plus twos out there for Green Bay. I don't get it. I do not for Green Bay. I don't get it. I do not understand this one. I don't get it.

I don't either. I mean, this is one that when I first saw the line, I was like, oh, Falcons, that seems smart. Green Bay is not as good as they looked last week. Atlanta is one of these tough teams that, you know, they're just sort of like a weird offense to prepare for. Oddly, like it does sort of feel like the a weird offense to prepare for oddly like it does sort of feel like the packers get to prepare for the same opponent twice in a way like fields and

ritter aren't the same quarterback but it's kind of a similar offense like it's a ground heavy offense it's like short behind the line passes the thing that i sort of learned last week you know is like desmond ritter like i'm pretty sure that's the worst starter we have in the league right now. I could be proven wrong, but he looked less. Stroud looked better than him. Bryce Young looked better than him. Richardson looked better than him. I was super unimpressed.

I'm a little nervous about Green Bay, but if we're able to get a point or two, which we actually are right now if we were to make the bet yeah uh I think I could I could potentially back it if it's one of your favorites we got to put it in so I I just look I'm against all the short people that I know like if you go to like I like Chris raybon who I like in regular NFL he has the Falcons money line uh there's a lot of sharp money the fact I just don't see it man I could be totally wrong here and they win this game the Packers are a better football team. The home field advantage in Atlanta is not very much.

I like the Packers, man. It's maybe a square play, but I didn't think that Atlanta was that impressive last weekend. All right, let's get to our next game here. Arthur Smith, by the way, 6-11 at home against the spread. Better on the road. So that's not a super helpful case so next up i have the barn burner colts and texans game uh the colts are laying a point on the road

i mean go ahead honestly so in my youtube tv multi-view last week i weirdly had on i was very curious how the ravens were going to look. So I ended up watching a decent amount, especially of the second half of Ravens Texans. You hate watching the Ravens. It's okay. Just be honest. Yeah. Oh, I honestly, that is, I guess I maybe kind of was, I was just like, why aren't they scoring any points here? But I really was interested in, in all the AFC South games for some reason last week.

And I was really interested in, in Anthony Richardson. Anthony Richardson got, you know, they had one really long pass play with pittman he looked terrible like i thought he looked really awful and then the the texans like stroud looked overmatched but their defense fought really really hard they made the ravens uncomfortable that whole game i felt like the texans were a much better team than the colts were and when i saw this line i was just sort of like why isn't this just texans by three like what what edge do the colts bring to this like where are they much better than houston is i thought houston first of all like this is sort of a unique situation like we always like early season uh home dogs and division obviously this is a bad game that neither of us are probably going to watch even if we end up convincing each other

to or I convince you to bet on it um but there's one kind of interesting trend here from our friend Evan Abrams who helped me get my action Network subscription back last week high five same for you um when two winless teams play uh the underdog is 67 37 and 4 against the spread since 05 so both these teams are winless this is a home dog in the division with in my opinion the better coach that team the texans team last week yeah undermanned against baltimore went on the road and fought their asses off i think this is just like a smart bet if we don't have five others we like even though it's it could not be any uglier by the way houston's now a favorite minus one minus one so is the line maybe i moved the line just now yeah you moved the line so i'm i'm look divisional home dog i

guess we can't even use that anymore divisional opponent like this i agree with you in the situation um i'd be i had not thought about this game this wasn't one on my list because i have a list of other games that i do like so i'm i'm look man i'm for the maybes and we we got three maybes already we thought we wouldn't have any this week i'm impressed i didn't the falcons or the packers weren't on my radar so i'm really i'm glad that we're gonna have a good chance to sort of whittle this down um well let's talk about a much better game at least that we think so uh the lions hosting the seahawks the lions are five and a half point favorites in the contest uh the line right now is four and a half four five wow it's all over the place um seattle is

getting a lot of money today so that line has moved dude i want to take seattle so bad here matt but their two tackles are out like it's just like if they're playing i i would totally be on seattle here is a complete overreaction to what happened in week one between seattle and los angeles and what happened with the lions and chiefs but if if abe lucas and and uh and Charles Cross, and Charles Cross I think is for sure out this week, I can't take a road team with two offensive tackles missing. You know what I mean? I think Seattle is absolutely the wager here. Absolutely the wager here.

But without two of their offensive linemen against Aidan Hutchinson, I can still see them winning the game, honestly. But I just feel uncomfortable doing that i think yeah detroit i agree i feel like people are going to learn the wrong lesson from this game like seattle like a lot like minnesota actually the team i liked to make the playoffs um may end up being oh and two and may not end up you know the week one result i think we're gonna end up throwing out this week detroit's got that extra rest they're healthier they didn't totally like they didn't unwrap jameer gibbs yet this is gonna be inside they're gonna be on that turf where they're just gonna fly uh jared goff tends to be really good early in the season pete carroll tends to not be

good in the first two weeks of the season uh pete carroll in in weeks one and two is 10 16 one against the spread and then afterwards he's like he's covered like 60 of the time week three on uh jared goff 10 and one against the spread in weeks one and two in his career so it's sort of like the trends don't like it the trends i mean trends don't mean anything but it's just sort of nice context um the fact that everyone's kind of on seattle and you could get them at five and a half if we want to use the contest line here is interesting um but i i kind of want to see my concern with seattle is that their defense didn't get any better and that geno smith like yeah like Gino Smith at the end of the year, it did turn into a bit of a pumpkin and it is possible that that team just

kind of falls hard. Like there, I could see it. So not rooting for that, but I think this is a stay away from me this week. I'm fine with staying away. We have other games we like, again, I don't, I don't love, I don't love Seattle on this spot. Let's get to the next 1 PM game. Boy, if you, if you want to convince me on either side here, I'm going to be really upset. This is Tampa Bay, the rejuvenated Baker Mayfield,

two-and-a-half-point favorites to the Bears. I mean, the play here, I think, who is the side here? The side is Chicago, but I'm not doing it. Baker Mayfield, come on, is it two-and-a-half-point favorite? Like, get out of here. Like, come on. I'm not doing it. Baker Mayfield, is it two and a half point favorite? Like, get out of here. Like, come on. I can't do it. But the Bears, I can't stomach their offense right now.

It might be time to admit Justin Fields is not good. I don't know what else to take away from 27 starts now. But yeah, that's just for the sake of time, let's move on to the next one. Yeah. i think that bears under seven and a half looks pretty good um moving on to uh the bills getting laying nine and a half to the raiders at home it's eight now i think by the way down to eight now interesting yeah um man so that means that there's been a lot of money.

Well, interesting. All the money is still on Buffalo now, but it's still moving. This is a tease game for me. Just put Buffalo in a teaser and be done with it, right? You put them, and we'll talk about some games later, the Niners, put them in a tease. Maybe take some more points with a home team here at some point. take some more points with with a home team here at some point um but i i i i'm just the bills probably win this game like 37 to 14 like they probably kicked the raiders ass

i don't want to bet on it like josh allen continues to sort of trend he hit his peak with brian dable brian dable left, and he sort of just continues to kind of like go back to what he was his first couple of seasons. And he's still a talented football player, but the mistakes worry me. I'm not laying eight points with the Bills, with Josh Allen who continues to turn the ball over. I'm also not taking eight with the Raiders on the road in this game. To me, it's just a complete stay away.

Or tease Buffalo down through the seven and three and be done with it a lot of people who i really think are smart about betting have all like buffalo this week and i just i have this feeling it's like somebody it doesn't just feel like one of kansas city buffalo or cincy is going to be o and two like it just feels like one of them is just we're going to be like what like like it just feels like one of them is just we're going to be like what like what's going on here and i don't think it's going to be kansas city i just saw a video of travis kelsey at practice uh twerking that's literally what i was watching a second ago um so i think he's going to be fine and the chiefs will be fine since he could be the

team but buffalo it's like there's something about this where everyone's just sort of like buffalo is going to be fine like yeah they looked absolutely horrible last a few days ago granted they're at home granted alan tends to be really good in these spots where he's favored by a lot like they're a good team when they're ahead um but this is to stay this to stay away from me i just i just feel like there's a lot of things that could go wrong here if you take either side um but you know do you remember last season in the year before that i talked about how the bills would either win games by like 20 or lose games like that was there's no in between they don't win close football games very often

yeah um i'm i'm gonna agree with you here i i think this i think surely the bills might smash the raiders but i'm just not gonna put my one of my five picks on it, I don't think. Yeah. I think we're saving ourselves some headaches there. Let's move on to Chiefs-Jags in the late window. No, this is still early window. It's my fault there. It's the only game this season for the Chiefs in the early window, by the way. Interesting.

Well, they're favored by three or three and a half. It's and a half in the contest i see some threes out there um three it's a big difference between three and three and a half in this game yeah but i bet two and a half so um i got a two and a half on sunday um nice the chiefs are gonna win this football game you know my rule about them i don't like putting money on the team i'm rooting for very often. Two and a half, I would have just taken my mortgage for this month and put it right on the Chiefs on this show, but I got it earlier this week at two and a half. You're going to win this football game.

Kelsey's back. Chris Jones is back. They play like shit on offense. We know they're going to win this game. And by the way, there's a lot of predictions on the vaulted pool this week for this game. Kansas City minus 3.5. Mahomes pass over 303 yards.

There's so much to get to later with my five favorite vaulted pool questions, challenge questions. A lot of them are Kansas City and Jacksonville. So we'll cover this game extensively in the pool as well. Use the promo code Jeff for that. That's Jeff with a G. I i hope you've ever listened to the show you realize it's jeff of the g but to me matt three and a half is a stay away either side um i do think kansas city wins and covers this game yeah i think if you can get a three it's it's worth uh it's worth a squeeze but um yeah it's i think this is think this will be a really interesting result.

If Jacksonville keeps this close, teams tend to get a lot of credit for almost beating the Chiefs. And I think that they would be given a lot of respect if they were to win this game or to even just keep it close, which I think they will. I think Jacksonville is not a great team, but they have moxie like they like they're watching them play last week like they just like do some goofy stuff and find their way to some wins like they're trevor's awesome i don't know but this is a little bit of a stay away from me and we'll see how much you know if kelsey's not

100 then that three and a half could look really good on the jaguars and he's gonna he's gonna play um all right let's get to one more one more day game right one more one o'clock game yeah ravens god what do you do here ravens bangles the contest line is three and a half for the bangles which i found very interesting it's three now open three and a half it's three now open three and a half um the ravens are without j.K. Dobbins, who injured his Achilles. Marlon Humphrey, he's out with a foot injury. Their left tackle out with a knee. Their center out with an ankle. Their safety, Marcus, is out with a peck.

And Mark Andrews is questionable. They're on the road against a Bengals team that played really poorly, really offensively. They played fine on defense. I don't know how you don't take the Bengals here, man. I don't know how you – I just – I don't – At three, at three, three and a half, we think we stay away. But three, I think we take the Bengals, right?

Yeah, so, I mean, this is – I always struggle in week two because to bet on the Bengals this week, you're betting on what we've seen from them in the past. Baltimore did not look good last week, but they looked like they could win this game. Burrow always starts the season slow. Last year, they lost their first two games. He's the second worst against the spread quarterback uh in the nfl since he was drafted um and this is you know the difference

again between three and three and a half i think is is critical um so you're basically just saying like hey bangles infrastructure turns it around you mentioned the ravens are banged up but i mean they got their asses handed to them last week and their offensive line looked like an issue harbaugh is great as a dog he's great in the division um i this one is just like a little bit scary to me and again it goes back to we've now talked about these three teams in a row that it's like one of them's gonna lose i don't know who it's gonna be i don't think we either of us think it's the bills or the chiefs i feel like the bangles could easily face plant here and bust a lot of bust a lot of people's sundays um but i don't know i i could just be like being a little bit too scared of of what i

saw last week it's worth noting the look ahead line was bangles minus three and a half so line did not move after the results on sunday interesting it's like burrow still was burrow burrow was rusty like he did not look comfortable the defense got complete oh and then we lost matt you can go against dominance um all right matt's back he's back he's back screw your internet buddy all right so let's just i'll's back. He's back. Screw your internet, buddy. All right. So let's just – I'll put a maybe. I don't love the Bengals here. There's a couple games in the afternoon slot and night slot that I really do like.

So let's get to the afternoon slate here. Late afternoon slot. Yeah, let's do that. The 4 o'clock games start with the Giants and the Cardinals. Man. Nope. Nope. No.

Save some time. Just nothing. Just move. Just nothing. Just move. Just save some time. What are you doing? I mean, this is what? Six, four, five and a half, six, now down to four? Yeah.

And all the money is still in the Giants. To me, this would be a Cardinals play, which we're not doing. But I do feel like I could see that the Cardinals were feisty last week. They maybe played on the dirty side. Yeah. But I do feel like I could see that the Cardinals were feisty last week. They maybe played on the dirty side. And I feel like they're not going to just go in the tank in week two. But it's like the Giants aren't beating anyone by six right now, I don't think. I don't think so either.

We're not betting this one. No, we're not betting this one. Lower third, Nick. No, no. Not betting this. no no absolutely not um all right let's see the next one here yeah okay so next up uh 49ers uh a team we were very or i was very wrong about last week there eight point road favorites at the rams who surprised everyone uh eight points was now it's down to seven and a half in the contest i actually think it's no it's just eight um what do you think do we have the do we have the stones to bet on the rams

it's seven at caesars right now oh you want to go niners oh they're yeah they're gonna kick around the rams ass um on on bear bets the other podcast i do chris felica took the rams team total under i think it's eight was 18 and a half a half. I think it's a great wager. I'm not betting on the Niners here. We don't take big road favorites on this podcast. If you want to go to another podcast and do that, be my guest. Because here's what's going to happen. The people that me and you laugh about and fade every Sunday

are going to be on the Niners minus seven. And we absolutely know they are. And you're going to have to sneak it up and take the Rams plus seven. I'll do that personally on my own to fade the person that we always fade. But not on this podcast. I don't think I can take – I can't stomach this. Because, Matt, this has a chance to be like a complete ass-kicking by the Niners. The Rams sort of got their one victory in week one.

Big road win. They go back home, which, by the way, they're going to have 700% Niners fans at SoFi Stadium this weekend. It's going to be a road game for them. I can't stomach the Rams plus seven a year. Can you? I can't. No.

I could. Eight and a half, I would listen. But, no, I don't see it. I would be in my, like, picks pool. I'll be taking the Rams. I forgot the splits every year i feel like we need like a refresher in week one and week two of like what the sort of flow chart of the nfc west dominance is um absolutely owns mcveigh which is always surprising to me um he is three and ten against the spread against uh shanahan and 26 and one against the other

teams in the nfc west which is just unbelievable um so this is one i do feel like i do feel like getting plus eight ish with stafford no matter what no matter who you're betting against is decent but this is a it's a really tough one in san francisco you know they can take it to you so i i'm fine with the pass but i would be on the ramps if i had to make a choice um speaking of speaking of passes uh maybe jets at cowboys uh america's team is laying nine to nine and a half it's eight and a half in the contest it's nine and a half but it's moved down i we can't do it we can't we cannot take the jets jeff that we will not do it i will not allow us to do it america deserves it i know they don't pay for this show but we deserve they deserve

better than us making the case for zach wilson i gotta put my foot down something you know that we do the show long enough that the jets plus nine and a half is absolutely the play in this game it's the only way to play this game um but yeah we're not betting on zach wilson we're not doing it no it's not doing it no but but i'll explain why this wager is good before we pass on it like think about the outcome of the scores for this game 24 17 very can very well happen 2013 can very well happen think about the range of scores inside of nine points in this game that you could realistically see oh yeah cowboys win a close defensive game by seven points or by six points or by eight points so to me it's it is the jet

we're not i don't think we're doing it in this because there's a couple other that I think we like a little bit later that I think we sort of have to take. We don't have to take the Jets here, in my opinion. So we'll pass on the Jets because I just – If the Jets were at home, I think I would do it, but not back in Dallas. If that's what home, I think I would do it, but not back in Dallas. I mean, it's really unbelievable that it peaked at nine and a half. I bet by Sunday, Joe Public's going to come in and bet this one back up on the Cowboys side.

Teams that win by 40 points, teams that win their opener by 21 or more points have gone eight and 20 against spread in week two uh historically so it's it's a spot where you'd want to back the jets but zach wilson thing this could dallas is sort of like buffalo a few years ago it's like they either win by 30 or or lose um so i it's it's a pass i i do think the jets are going to keep this one uh a lot closer than than people expect, but you could get back to it on this. It could be a pick six when they're down by seven.

A lot of things could go wrong. So, yeah, why don't we stick to – there's a few more that we're going to like here. The next one on the list is – it's not this one. Bronco's posting my Comandantes. My undefeated Comandantes. Three and a half how disrespectful to the magnetic johan dotson sam howell offense like what are we talking about here my favorite part of week one by the way was matt texting me every time dotson got a reception for the for the over that he had one reception like four on the first drive and i was like we're a quarter of the way there four um god no no we i

i cannot imagine there's one game this season we will put any one of our dollars on russell wilson whether getting points or their favorite you just can't would you rather bet on sam howell or russell wilson in a vacuum i guess russell wilson if had to, but how about neither? Neither. Sam Howell looked frightful. Like he looked real bad. Yeah, shocker. He's not good.

Shocked. Like he looked pretty good in his first start last year. He has Desmond Ritter edged out by a hair. Like it was rough. He at least can do things with his legs but man he has a long way to go um but yeah and denver is a rough place to play but the three and a half like what are we doing otherwise it's getting no getting the hook no let's all right let's talk about some real football games here dolphins at patriots uh dolphins are everybody's pick from

last week everyone watched tyreek go for 200. So they're laying three points in Foxborough. Go. Patriots plus three. Just put it in Sharpie. It is done. The Patriots, we had them last week, by the way, against Philly. Bad first quarter, down 16-0.

They were driving at the end to win the football game, Matt. The wide receiver did not get one toe down otherwise they would have probably won that game against philly they only allowed 251 yards to philly last weekend like this is a real defense we've talked about this man it's a real defense page of a real defense offensively it took a little bit of time but once it got a rhythm of things wasn't bad now i know matt jones is coming from behind so the numbers it took a little bit of time. But once it got in the rhythm of things, it wasn't bad. Now, I know Matt Jones is coming from behind, so the numbers aren't a little skew to throw the ball 54 times.

But over 300 yards passing, they had two turnovers. They lost a fumble and threw an interception. That was early in the game. That caused the Eagles to go up 16-0. Dude, everyone's betting the Dolphins this weekend. You have to bet the Patriots, Matt. You have been the dolphins this weekend you you have to bet the patriots matt you have to do it this weekend they're not going to own two and everyone's on the dolphins i'm with you man it's not gonna be fun but i'm with you and we could we could lose this one by

we could get blown out in this one if if miami's as good as they looked last week which again you can't overreact um for some reason to a four no against the spread against belichick uh he's weirdly been really good against the patriots i think he might be undefeated against belichick straight up i can't i can't remember that one i can't find that quickly but uh yeah two has had success against this team but uh you mentioned you mentioned the patriots offense looking a little bit better than people think um so much so jeff that uh in the fantasy matchup between us in the blue duck league this week uh starting at my second flex position is kendrick bourne who

would have thought rough times for team ford aka bed bath and bajan we're uh we're really struggling if kendrick bourne is making the starting lineup. But he's getting a lot of looks in that dynamic Mac Jones offense. Kill me immediately. So, yeah, I think you've got to make this bet. Yeah, this line will open up Dolphins minus two. So it's not that much off. Get an extra point here for the Patriots. I'm on this.

Again, guys, I know it's. It's just, again, guys, I know it's not fun sometimes to take these wagers, but this is what gets you to winning in the NFL. It's not taking road favorites. I know that that sounds more fun, but it's not. It's not. And by the way, road teams 12 and 3 last weekend covering the spread like it that's so interesting i think it was 12 and 3 before my night of football because i had

been 13 and 3 in week one there's 16 games um all right we have a two minor football games the first one we're going to not waste any time on the second one we're going to talk about so just you can just read what they are yeah so uh by the way thanks nick uh two is four and oh against bill belichick that's unbelievable um the first one uh saints at panthers panthers are plus three at home we're not taking either side of that one save us some time uh right monday night i might i might take my son to that game it's monday night seven o'clock i'm coming be fun for yeah girl. Yeah, in Charlotte. There you go. Bryce Vianna for his home debut.

Let's do the second game, though, because I think we just have to do it again in this situation. We're back at the well, brother. Mike Tomlin, home dog, plus 2.5 to the Browns. I'm curious what that look-ahead line looked like because I'm sure that shifted quite a bit after last week. I'll look at the fun look-ahead line. Yeah, the Sears are the play here. The look-ahead line was Steelers favored by one.

So that line has moved. Obviously, you know, didn't go through key numbers, but still moved nonetheless. We got burned by the Steelers last weekend. They looked like shit. Sure did. They also played a defense that is fucking good. Excuse my language.

And, like, they just weren't ready for the speed of the Niners' defense. I'm terrified about what Miles Garrett might do to this offensive line because they did not play terribly well. But Deshaun Watson, if you watch him play, everybody, he didn't look good. He didn't play well. He didn't play well. The Steelers' defense, you're not being schemed up by Kyle Shanahan in this game. I do think that this is an opportunity for the Seahawks to just get right.

They're not going to start 0-2 and to fade a Browns team off a better win on paper than it looked like watching the game. Yeah, I agree. You can just go back to last week's show to hear all the stats about Mike Tomlin as a home dog. That's a divisional home dog the numbers are even better the thing that blew me away and this actually kind of got me nervous to be honest um the steelers unbelievable on monday night football like just of course they are right uh since 2007 they're 19 and 3 on monday night football the last time they lost a home monday night football game

you want to guess last time probably like the ravens or something it was 1991 to the giants and jeff hustetler like they are just this is one of those like very sneaky trends they've won i believe it's 20 straight yeah no way that way. So that's going to be that. I think at some point, I mean, obviously they're going to lose someday. That's a Tomlin off a rest stat, right? Like extra day to prepare stat. Yeah. And I guess Cowher also at that time.

But it's like, you're right. It's the extra day to rest. It's the big pressure spot. It's a marquee opponent usually. Like, I do think that this is a a spot you know and stefanski against the rest of the division he's uh the browns are three and nine on the road in night games against the afc north but it's six and 13 against the spread versus the afc north under stefanski so this is a the trends all say to take pittsburgh our gut says to take pittsburgh

our eyes from last week tell us that pittsburgh sucks i'm going to throw out our eyes and go with uh with the other good reasons to take the steelers i'm with you so we've got three that we love here as we sort of look back at the slate we got pittsburgh go ahead so yeah it's pittsburgh new england and the packers yeah so we've we've got two holes to fill and i see five maybes on our list before. Well, you're right about Tennessee, man. We have the Bengals minus three, Houston minus – you like Houston minus one, right? I don't know if I'm putting my name on that one just yet.

And we have Tennessee plus three. What do you think? I kind of like the bingos i kind of like the bingos minus three i if we're getting the three right now with the bingos but i don't know i mean the ball wave with their down their two best offensive linemen maybe their tight end they're running back their safety i don't know i still second week of install for that offense i mean i think in this list of maybes i think we can pretty can we can we remove zach wilson from the conversation that's one that i still have on my list all right let's take zach wilson out um so are these four that we have in here i i don't think we're playing kansas city right well okay so we have we have

four left right t? Tennessee plus three. Kansas City minus. We get a minus three at recording, right? I think, I believe. Let me make sure we get a minus three here so I can just say we have a minus three. There is one minus three available, it looks like. No, there's a couple minus threes available.

Cincinnati at home or Bengals, assuming or texans i think i feel like the texans are getting are getting they're favored by a point now right texans are oh interesting what do you think What do you think? Hmm. I mean, you tell me about Cincy. I think Tennessee and Pittsburgh are ones that we could look at each other in the mirror and be like, okay, we lost betting the right thing. But I don't really love Tennessee.

It also feels extremely public. love i don't really love tennessee it's a it also feels extremely public um houston to me houston to me if we're getting an extra two points uh i kind of want to kill the action on this one it's an action of the money on yeah it's all sharp on the next one um or we just say we'll just we just say we'll just take pat mahomes minus three on the road we'll be done with it oh man yeah um no i i think the the plays here are have to be consistent with houston i think houston plus houston minus one sorry minus one right now it has to be in and here's a deal do you want to bet on whatever semblance of offense the titans have plus three or take the bangles expect them to bounce back favored by three against baltimore that's sort

of let's take the bangles yeah let's take i'm fine with the bangles i think uh you know we're putting a little bit of it's it's a little bit of a faith thing but i think you're right like all the injuries and on the road and off a loss, I do think the Bengals are probably a nice spot. And doesn't Joe Burrow, he kind of plays well against the Ravens, right? Like that's like his, that's his, that's his team that he plays well against. Everyone but the Browns. Yeah. He's done really well against Baltimore.

I just don't think the Bengals are going to come out next weekend and play flat like they did offense. Like they're a good, they're a good football team. And they're not just, they're not just going to come out and just stink again is my point here. And you mentioned the Ravens sort of learning the new offense and whatnot. I'm for this. So right now, I think we have five. Green Bay plus one and a half at Atlanta.

Houston minus one hosting the Colts. Bengals minus three at home against the divisional game, home against the Ravens. And then the ones I think that just like to hold your nose and just New England plus three, Sunday night football against the Dolphins, which I don't like betting these primetime games, but I think it's the right call though.

And Pitt plus two and a half hosting the Browns. And the best part about these games, by the way, is every schmo is going to be on the Dolphins and the Browns. We're going to feel good being on the other side of everyone else. Yep, and nobody's going to be touching. And the public really likes Atlanta also. So I think we're probably on the right side there. And I think the Houston one, it's like the only people betting on that game

are sharp people betting the Texans. Yes. All right. I think that's a 4-1 in there maybe. What do you think? We're not asking for 5. Give us a 4-1. I'll take a 3-2, buddy.

I'll take a 3-2. Absolutely with a 3-2. All right. All right. Let's take a break. Why don't we take a – yeah. Go ahead, let's take a break. Why don't we take a, yeah. Go ahead. Let's take a break.

We'll come back. We'll talk about the vaulted pool and the challenge questions and what I like for this week. I'll wrap everything up. I'll be back in a second. All right, we're back. Look at that. Look at that magic. We're back. Wow.

Love it. TV magic, baby. Remembered. Go to Vaulted app. Free to enter. all right we're back look at that look at that magic we're back wow i love it tv magic baby remembered go to vaulted app free to enter win cash prizes each week join my pool jeff with a g g-o-f-f go to vaulted that's v-l-t-e-d and play this with us we gave away 400 the first place winner last week 400 $400. 75 to second place, 25 to third place. All you got to do is agree or disagree and then put a number of points you

want to risk. I was on the underside of risking points. Maybe I'm a little conservative with that. But here are five ones I like, Matt. You can add your own as well. Kansas City will score more than 27.5 points. I strongly agree with that, Matt. I think the Chiefs are going to score a lot of points this weekend.

Travis Kelsey's back. I put Kadarius Toney, who was on my bench, starting in fantasy football this weekend. I think they're going to feed him the ball early and often and say, hey, buddy, you're a big part of our offense. Go, like, catch the ball and do good things. So do you agree with me here i put 10 points on this one i i love that going against cadarious tony and fantasy let me just say that like

okay because i was gonna say cadarious tony versus kendrick bourne is the real barn burner at the flex position right no no no not not our league um i like it i like the stones it takes okay so my next one up is tyreek hill will have more than 95.5 maybe 96.5 receiving yards until further notice matt this is an agree every time over for tyree kill each and every time like yes he will have more because he might end up as offensive player of the year which which we bet on, right? Like he's going to have a ton of yards. He's always going to have a ton. I would always bet the over.

Do you ever bet the under on any of these Tyreek Hill props ever, Matt? No, it's no fun. He can get it all in one play. I mean, I genuinely think 2,000 yards is in play for him this year. The way that that offense looked, the way that Tua can – Tua, I felt like, made some real strides. So I would not be shocked if he set some records this year. Staying in this game, my next prediction that I like is

Zeke Elliott will have more than half a rushing touchdown. The answer is no. It's disagree. Okay, good. He had seven carries last weekend. He fumbled the ball. He fumbled the ball, right? Am I right on that?

I believe he did. Yeah, he did. Yeah, totally. In a pass catch, by the way. It wasn't a rush. Only seven carries. He's like, no, no, no. I'm fading him here.

I'm going to disagree with that. A couple more i have for you lions five and a half over seahawks i did disagree i like the seahawks in the spot matt i know we talked about the tackles and we're not wagering on this but my prediction here for vaulted is disagree i think the seahawks will be within the number here. What do you think? I think, I don't know how I feel on that one, to be honest, because I have a lot of doubts about Seattle. I don't know. This is a stay away, as we sort of said above,

but I think there are some individual things about this game I like, which I think may be where you're going next. Well, this is one that our podcast, by the way, is a number one supporter of Amon Ross St. Brown. Just remember this, guys. We're the ones last season. Matt is the one last season who made everyone money. So whenever we have Amon Ross St. Brown opportunities, we're taking it.

DK Metcalf will have more receiving yards than Amon Ross St. Brown. The answer is disagree. No, not happening. Never. Always take Amon Ross St. Brown? The answer is disagree. No, not happening. Never. Always take Amon Ross St. Brown. The last one here, it's a six. I like a sixth one. Darren Waller will have more than half a touchdown.

Disagree. Guy has a hamstring injury. Like, I don't know what's happening with him. You can't go agree with a player who might not be 100%. Absolutely. I think it's a great call. And there's some – I think the Giants – the Giants would not shock me if they kill everyone in Survivor this week.

If they're like the team that goes on the road and loses to the Cardinals and you're like, oh, my God, the Giants are 0-2. They're fourth in the NFC East in Dallas. And the Eagles look unbelievable. What happened to the Giants? I could 100% They're fourth in the NFC East in Dallas, and the Eagles look unbelievable. What happened to the Giants? I could 100% see that in play this week, and Waller not being a big piece of it because he is so talented would explain it.

If you're playing vaulted, by the way, which you absolutely should, there's a bunch of sort of things. If you're on the side of the bangles like joe burrows over in touchdowns uh the bangles scoring more than 24 and a half points like if you're with us on those you can absolutely sort of creatively uh bet those ones that the number of sacks for each team uh that that sort of could could confirm your hunch and our hunch on the bangles so uh this is a really fun game i had a great time entering it in last week and i'm gonna do it right after this it was a lot of fun so remember go the vaulted app vltd and put in my code jeff goff to join the pool it's a lot of fun again it's free to enter

we're giving you money i don't know why you wouldn't do it um all right that's the our show for this week everyone we back on monday to recap the week that was the NFL. Again, the predictions I'm putting in there, Green Bay plus 1.5, Houston minus 1, Cincinnati minus 3, New England plus 3, Pittsburgh plus 2.5. We'll put those in the vaulted app as well. All right, guys, have a great weekend of ball. Take care.

Lastly, by the way, Pac-12 picks on my Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz. I'm good at those. Check them out. All right. Have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to you later.