Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets for NFL Week 3

Episode Date: September 22, 2023

Matt and Geoff jump into Week 3's NFL slate to find their five favorite games. Plus, Matt and Geoff select their favorite plays from this week's VLTED pool where they are giving away $500 per week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday september 22nd i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff schwartz a smart you were live on twitter on youtube and we're on your favorite podcast platform of choice we're brought to you by the vaulted app the home my season-long game giving out fourteen thousand dollars of cash prizes in my pools with five thousand allotted to my final pool this season which will be the day of the big game that's vaulted spelled v spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you're smarter than your friends and me

by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool in Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes. There are no entry fees to participate. Last weekend's winner, Sam Curtis, won $400. All you got to do, no entry fees. Win money, win the pool. This football season, Volta will be handing out all those prizes I mentioned.

And the only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of our regular season pools, which, Matt, right now, shouldn't be very hard because I've done terribly. I've enjoyed doing them, but I've sucked. So join, beat me. Not very hard right now. I'll also be using Volta to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week, which we'll get to at the end of today's show.

Go download Vaulted. That's V-L-T-E-D. Remember to use my code Jeff. That's G-E-O-F-F. And you can see my predictions. Play along and join my pool for the week. Matthew, buddy, how are you? Jeffrey, I'm well, buddy.

How are you doing? You've got your Oregon shirt on. Is there a big Oregon game this weekend? I haven't heard anything about it. Just a little bit. But we're going to lose, though. I mean, you know, because of vibes. Vibes are good in Colorado, and we're going to lose because of that.

I mean, look, man, we can get into this if we want right now or at some point. This is an NFL TV show. Oregon's going to win the game. They're better. Like, I don't understand. Here's the thing about this game, okay, is I was wrong about Colorado. You were wrong about Colorado, I think. But we have three games now.

So what we said in the preseason is now over. We can look at the team as they are now, Matt, not what they were before the season, as they are now. They scored 45 points in week one, 36 in week two, and only 21 in regulation on offense, right? They scored a pick six against Colorado State. They've slowly gotten kind of back to where I thought they might be to start the season.

They can't rush the ball. They give up the most sacks in the country. They have the most pre-snap penalties in the country. Oregon's better in the trenches. They're better on defense. They're better on offense. Like, to me, this is a 21-point spread because it should be a 21-point spread. Week one, they got that wrong, right? They were a 24-point favorite last weekend. offense like to me this is a 21 point spread because it should be a 21 point spread week one

they got that wrong right they were a 24 point favorite last weekend they're now a 21 point dog they were overvalued i think last weekend and undervalued in week one this feels about right this weekend and unless organ turns the ball over which they have not done all season and they have too many dumb panels which have had so far this season, it's not that complicated to me. Like, Oregon's the better football team. Shadur Sanders is great. Don't get me wrong.

But when he's also completing 78% of his passes, or 79% or 80%, like somewhere close to that, like, people act like Oregon is a schmuck team that doesn't deserve to be a 21-point favorite. They're a real football team with a real defensive line, with real secondary. Like, to me, this is not that hard to handicap. do they cover 21 i don't know matt i'm not betting on the game myself but three touchdowns is about the margin i would expect this game to be disappointed if organ wasn't able to do it that way yeah well you're dodging a little bit of a

bullet without travis hunter right yes i think that that if he was out there, then this whole thing would feel a little bit different. It's a shame. I mean, the public, 65% of the tickets are on Colorado, only 28% of the money. And I read this morning that of the money line bets on this game, 99% of them are on Colorado. I mean, this is like a borderline phenomenon. Like this, and in one of these weeks, the public is just going to get crushed. Well, last week.

Last week, because everyone took Colorado last weekend, and Colorado took coverage. I mean, I think that's true in the NFL also. Like this feels like the week where everyone's going to get there. Just their ass is handed to them because it's just been a little bit too easy so far. Even last night, all the smart guys, a lot of people that, you know, we look to for guidance on these picks. They all love the Giants. They got steamrolled. It's like everything has looked just a little too easy.

And maybe it's this week. It's always either week two, three or four where everyone just gets wiped out. And maybe it's this week. It's always either week two, three, or four where everyone just gets wiped out. And it could be this week. Hopefully it doesn't happen to your Ducks. But hey, man, I'm just staying out of Deion's way for a while. Like, let's just see this fall apart. I'm just going to enjoy it while it lasts. I'm going to try it while it lasts, too.

No matter what happens this weekend, Deion's done a fantastic job. If they lose this weekend, they play USC next weekend, and they lose there. They're 3-2. They've done a great job. We did not do a good job last weekend, Matt. We were 1-3-1 in our picks for last weekend. We did get a bad line with the Packers,

who would have covered with the closing line, but we got plus one. They pushed there and lost by one to the Falcons. We're 4-5-1 this season. We to the Falcons. We're four, five, and one this season. We started worse this season. We started worse, I think. It's like our best start ever. Yeah, and there were some wagers I think we liked

that we didn't pull the trigger on. As you mentioned this week, there are going to be some, I think, that we're going to have to take that we don't like, but I think we're on kind of the right side on this. We'll find out, obviously, as we get to this weekend. As I mentioned earlier, at the end of the show, we'll go over my favorite vaulted pool questions. We'll maybe mix them in as we go throughout the show as well.

Some of them are the lines. Some of them are props and numbers that I like for this weekend. All right, Matt, let's start off with the first game. We'll go through all the games. We might not hit on your favorite game if it's a stinker. We don't want to talk about it because we do like to keep this pretty crisp. So let's go with the first game. Oh, boy.

Leave us off. Yeah. A game of Russian roulette. Who do you like between the Chargers and the Vikings? This is in Minnesota. The Vikings opened up as home dogs and have been bet back to now it's just a straight pick. Two teams that are 0-2

and feel like if they don't win this week something big is going to happen on both sides. Where are you here? I would only bet on Minnesota here if I was to choose a choice in this game. I'm not backing Brandon Staley on the road.

Just not doing that. Chargers head coach. The Vikings have a little unlucky with turnovers, right? They've had a ton of turnover, especially in the first half of games. They're at home. They have a little bit of a rest, right? They're off a long rest

because they play Thursday night football. Chargers back on the road. I just don't trust the Chargers ever. Like I just, I don't really trust them ever. We should have been on the Titans last weekend. We knew better. We didn't do it. And I'd be at Minnesota here.

It could be one of my five. I don't know if I like it that much, Matt, but I certainly think Minnesota is the player. I would take Minnesota also. I think the Chargers, I think that Eckler injury has been not, it hasn't been discussed enough. Their offense, you know, they obviously can put up a lot of points, but they can't, they weren't really able to run the ball.

They weren't able to really control the clock. I mean, obviously the Titans have a better run D than Minnesota. This line has just kept moving. I mean, this opened with, I mentioned that the Vikings opened as home dogs. It's actually getting to one in some places now, and the bets are a little split. The public seems to be on the Chargers, but the money keeps pouring in on Minnesota.

Look, this is kind of a... I think I said Russian roulette earlier. It kind of is. This game is not going to end because someone had a convincing, sound, crisp victory. This game is not gonna end because someone had like a convincing sound crisp victory this game is going to end with someone shitting their pants right like that's how this game is gonna go and i think we're just kind of hoping i mean you look across i just feel like minnesota is just better across the board like the chargers defense is just look completely terrible i do think minnesota like they you know they played the Eagles last week they kept that game close you know when that game was completely out of hand where the Chargers don't

seem to have like they don't seem to have that extra gear in them um so yeah I'll I would put Minnesota in the maybe list I hope that we can knock it out but I don't think we can having looked at all these uh all and the Chargers defense is terrible. Like, they're not been good. Minnesota can move the ball. Like, I think they're going to be okay here. I think so, too. Yeah, this is not going to be a defensive showcase for either side.

All right. What do we got next here? Next up, a line that I just feel like I'm taking crazy pills at this point. The Titans are three and a half point dogs to Cleveland on the road. Cleveland, obviously without Nick Chubb, the only sort of successful piece of their offense so far this season. Browns are laying three and a half. Vegas loves the Browns. Everyone loves the Browns. But Mike Brable's, you know, one of the best underdog coaches of all time

I'm sure that this this is what our our producers of this show have a pool they think they knew what we were going to pick I am positive they think that I was going to be on Tennessee I would say that they're right I just like I know I'm wrong like I know that everyone that this line is staying at three and a half despite it being a public dog for reason, but I just don't see what the case is for Cleveland here. Well, the case for Cleveland, if their defense is really good and the Titans can't score, right?

Like that, they can't score on, on, on the Browns. And this is an ugly game that the Browns win, you know, 17, 13,

right? 17, 10, 20, 10, something like that, right? That's the case for the Browns here. And also, too, the overreaction the last weekend, right? So I think this line opened four and a half. Tennessee beats the Chargers. The Browns lose a game.

They gave up two defensive scores, right? The Steelers had, like, negative 14 yards in the fourth quarter and won the game. I think it's a little bit overreacted. So if you like the Brown the browns you're actually getting a good number because it wasn't four and a half um yeah so i think the browns are the play i don't feel like comfortable doing it because i hate betting against tennessee that's one of the teams where i just when you bet against you're like oh i made a bad mistake betting against them um yeah but i do the brown i think that in these situations when the number is three and a half and you think to yourself, why did Vegas make it like this? The Tibley is a reason for that.

And that's when you take the other team. Like you don't take Tennessee, you take the Browns, right, in this situation. But I don't know if it's a maybe for me, but I would take the Browns here just for those reasons. All right. Well, it seems like we're on other sides because i just i i don't like i just don't like what you don't seem sold on tennessee though i mean no but like it's it's just a situation like i i just i don't think that uh

i mean yeah cleveland's defense is good but so is t but so is Tennessee. Tennessee's defense has been great. I mean, Cleveland's – I just – every time I've seen Deshaun Watson throw a pass this year, I've been like, this guy is not even a top 18 quarterback at this point. And Cooper's banged up. Chubb, we mentioned, is out. Like, the foundation of this offense for years has just been like, can they run the ball well? And Tennessee's just a tough team.

They're incredible at stopping the run. Their secondary is healthy for now. I think that it's a close game. That little hook is just so strange to me. It's like, what has Cleveland done to warrant that little hook? You're right. I know that I'm like the public dog here. I can't get behind Cleveland, like three and a half.

If it was three, maybe, but I just, I don't know. It just seems like picking against Rabel in this spot, like never goes well. It stinks. Yeah,

it stinks. Did you see, I thought the best, one of the best takes I saw this week was Mina's take on Deshaun Watson. Did you see this one where she was basically just like what a gift to the sports media world that he sucks like that we don't have to like do contortions we can just be like yeah this guy is not only bad at football but he's bad as a person like no one's like it seems like no one's really like trying to defend him in any way it's it's kind of nice it's fantastic

yeah it's really nice so maybe maybe i still have a block on the Browns in general, but they're less healthy. They stink. Speaking of stink, the Houston Texans are going to Jacksonville. The Jaguars are laying nine, eight and a half maybe. God, man. I talked to the Texans last week. I'm not rushing to do that again this week.

It was just not a fun experience. Trevor Lawrence's 0-4 against the spreaders is a home favorite. It has to happen very often. Worth pointing out here. They've only scored 20 points so far this season, presumably per game. They haven't looked quite right in offense. Maybe playing the Texans team can get you back on the right track here um one thing worth noting is that the houston texans injury report um you know if laramie tonsil's out again they're left

tackle they're down i believe um let me see did not let's see uh he deris simply did not practice um on thursday and laramie tons limited practice, so maybe he does play. I don't know. I don't have an opinion on this game. I think I would just public Joe and take Jacksonville minus the nine. Every sharp person is going to have the Texans plus nine because nine is a lot of points the NFL would take. I don't have much opinion on this game, to be honest with you.

Yeah, I mean, the play would definitely be Houston. I do think that the Jags, if this is almost like a buy low on the Jags based on, honestly, a bit of bad luck last week. Like they were like four lot. It is. And I'm not saying, I'm not saying I want to do it. If anything, I would be on Houston. I just thought that last week, like the Jags,

they were a second toe tap away four times from that game, feeling really close and everyone feeling really different about the Jags offense. The Chiefs played a really good game. I just think, you know, I don't know. The Jags don't look completely right. This could be a get-right spot. I don't know. The Jags don't look completely right. This could be a get-right spot, but you would just take the winless divisional dog plus nine if you made a play here. But I feel like we've kind of been sneaking in on Houston every week.

I will say, I felt like I was the only person before the draft who actually liked Stroud, and I feel kind of indicated. Like, he's looked really good. No picks yet. He's, I think, fourth in the league in yardage. Like, he's played well. And he's turned Nico Collins and Tank Dell into, like, a decent receiving core. I like him. I don't know if... I'm not going to push for him plus nine.

Yeah, he's been the best of the rookies by far. All right, I have a feeling we're going to probably agree on this one. The Patriots are laying two and a half to the Jets. The winless Patriots who own the Jets. Interesting line. I'm curious what side you're on here. What are we going to agree upon?

The under, which I've already taken? 37? I mean, if you say the Jets, the show's over. So I hope you don't say the Jets, the show's over. So I hope you don't say the Jets. Okay, New England. Zach Wilson has played the Patriots four times. He's 0-4. He scored, I think, three, 16, 17, and six, something like that.

He's completed 50% of passes. The thing about it is the Patriots offense stinks, Matt. Like, I – man. We're going to have to be there and be like, they won six to three we covered the spread it's very possible that's the problem with new england here but in new england under under three it one against the spread against the Jets and 1927 and one against the rest of the NFL. Max better as a favorite. Jets are one and 17 straight up against against the Pats in their last 18. this is the this is the patriots get right spot if there ever was one i still think the jets are drafting off of that week one ridiculous win um and i do feel like the patriots like this is you know this is essentially a money line play um and i just feel like you know we were in on belichick and the patriots over seven and a half at the beginning of the year, if we completely are throwing that bet out fine.

But if they're going to have any chance of touching that, if we believe in the Patriots at all, they win this game. I'm with you. I agree with all of that. I just watching this game is going to give me a heart attack. You're going to get that text at one Oh five Eastern. After the Patriots do something dumb, like we are, we are idiots for making this wager. We should sell access to our text message thread on Sunday. It would be

hilarious. All right. Yeah. Let's put New England in the Maybe. Yeah, I know, right? Let's put New England in the Maybe. The next game is pretty interesting. You might have to convince me to not take the Packers here. I don't know. Interesting. All right. Well, I didn't

really have a feel for this one. The Saints are visiting Green Bay take the Packers here I don't know interesting all right well I didn't really have a feel for this one the Saints are visiting Green Bay the Packers are laying to this is two like really confusing teams to me because on one hand Green Bay's looked I think better than people expected the Saints everyone's like oh great well they're the division winning Saints like they're they're gonna roll through everybody I'm curious what you think here because a lot of you know the Saints the Saints defense this is probably their strongest tests thus far and one of their strongest tests of the season somehow. So I'm curious what side you're on. I mean, the Saints are, are two and oh, they beat the Titans by one 1615 and beat the Carolina Panthers who stink

2017. Like they're not yeah i think like derrick carr on the road now like in green bay no that's what we're going to convince ourselves with like that that's what we that that is like we're getting package is favored by two um if the packers get aaron jones back which I believe has been practicing this week. Bakhtiari has not practiced yet. Christian Watson did not practice today, but practiced a little bit Wednesday. These are all from yesterday.

Did not practice yesterday. Practiced Wednesday. Bakhtiari has not played practice this week. I don't, I, I, I, how is, the Saints are going to win this game by three points. Is that what you're telling me? They're going to be 3-0 with Derek Carr and scoring 36 points in two games? That's pretty interesting.

I mean, the Panthers game was not as close as it ended. I'll say that. I mean, basically they got backdoored. But I do think i mean everyone loves the saints defense and like to your point you know they played tennessee and then they played carolina and neither of them have been super impressive i agree that aaron jones coming back is huge uh he did practice yesterday um the floor is an underdog 15 and 5 against the spread jordan love has never

not covered as a starter that's kind of interesting it's only three games well it depends what number you got last week true um yeah i mean i didn't really consider this one car on the road you're right but like the saints and this is like the week before camara comes back and the saints offense is about to hopefully get for them get get better. I didn't really consider this. I think, uh, well, I don't know. I, I, yeah, I, it's funny. I don't totally have, I still don't totally feel like I have a feel for green Bay. Like they came out and crushed the bears and last week it was just,

it was just ugly. They're up 24, 24, 12 in the fourth quarter and lost. They're playing well to that point. Yeah. What about the Maybes? Yeah, I'm fine with that. It's a Maybe. Traveling, outdoors, after a physical last week.

Yeah, all right. God, I don't know if I'm willing to do this, but we do have to have the discussion. Yes. Russell Wilson and the Broncos are going to Miami. The Dolphins are laying six and a half. Are we going to say, like, Sunday, we should have done this? Because the NFL works in a way where the Broncos win this game.

Like, we know that. Like, that's the NFL. like we know that like that's the nfl um doesn't mean it's gonna happen but like that is what the nfl is i can i stop boy matt i just don't know i don't think if we if we were to take the broncos like this kind of bet just wins most of the time. Not all the time. I know. I know. I don't want to do it either.

I think we have to put it in our, in our list of maybes. I mean, honestly, like the, the dolphins. Here's, here's my theory on this week.

Like you look at this game, you look at the Jags, you look at the next game. We'll talk about Buffalo, the Ravens, the chiefs and Cowboys don't feel like they're really in danger but like some of these the eagles and the bucks like some one of these like marquee teams is gonna get surprised and denver like their whole season's on the line i will say their secondary because it's i thought it got eviscerated by my guy sam howell last week. I was not impressed with their defense. They're a little bit banged up. They're going to have a tough time with this Miami offense.

But Miami's been playing out of their mind for two straight weeks. Maybe that's what they are, but I do feel like the Broncos will at least make this a game. They're not going to go out there and just completely fold because their season is 100 on the line 22 of the bets on denver 63 of the money so this is like the sharp play of the week payton's great as an underdog the second best um yeah no you're right you're no you're right. No, all the things you said are absolutely right. I don't like it. It just sucks. No, I don't like it either. And we were out on the Dolphins against New England, right?

And they ended up covering a pretty big spread at home. Yeah. All right. Let's get to the next game because I'm kind of curious about your thoughts here. Yeah. The Bills, six and a half point favorites in washington um do you have a thought here before i say my piece out of the 20 vaulted pool questions we have go to vaulted use use the app vltd use promo code jeff that's jeff for the g uh four questions four predictions from this game from this game are in the pool.

So one of these we'll cover at the end of the show. Stay tuned for that. So this game is big for us and for the vaulted pool. I mean, the only play is the commanders here, plus six and a half. But you can make the case that Washington should have won last weekend and should have won against Arizona. And we know Buffalo. When they win, they win by a lot for the most part, right? Matt, we talk about this all the time.

Like they either like blow a team out or lose. However, this is a game they would lose. So I don't feel great about any side you have a take. Yeah, well, they don't need to lose, right? They just need to win by less than seven. And I think if you were to draw up a team that's kind of a nightmare for buffalo it's a team that can rush the passer super well and creates a lot of turnovers because that is how you beat josh allen right like washington's defense they gave

up a lot of points but they've created a lot of turnovers. They've been very opportunistic. And they put up a lot of points. The Buffalo defense, great. They shellacked the Raiders last week at home. They have to go on the road now with a crowd that is very reinvigorated. And I think that this is a tough matchup for Buffalo. And I think that Washington's flying pretty high. They're going to show up for this one. And yeah, I mean, Buffalo, they still can't run the ball.

They've got it. They've got a great passing attack with digs, but Washington secondary has been good. And I do feel like Washington can turn them over and that's how you beat them. And I feel like even if it's getting out of hand, like last week, it was 21-3 for Denver at home, and Washington came storming back. They're a team that runs through the tape. So I think this is probably the last time you get them getting this many points that you play Philly the week after. And Buffalo has looked pretty shaky.

I mean, they looked great. They looked good against the Raiders at home, like flying across the country in the early window. Let's see if let's see if they can if they can do it on the road i'll put in the maybes man i mean look i'm all he has a home dog especially when probably all the money is on is on buffalo in this situation um yeah everybody's on buffalo it's it's on the it's on a maybe this we've got five maybe so far but i think it's good because i think a lot of these other games later are going to be just no especially this next game i want no part of this next game yeah me neither it'll be an interesting one we're going to learn something from this one atlanta is going to

detroit to dome teams the lions are laying i think they're still laying three i'll double check there yeah but this one's been kind of steady this week because i don't feel like anyone really has a feel for this one yeah no one has a feel it because the Lions were crowned the champions of the NFL after they beat the Chiefs by a couple points when the Chiefs dropped 18 passes. And they got – not shellacked by Seattle, but they lost 37 points last weekend. And I – the Falcons thing, dude, is just like I don't get it. Just – if they beat the panthers great and last weekend they beat the packers um they play much better offensively they did in that game uh the rest

for 211 yards i think i would just if i were if you were asking me for my pick on this game would be the falcons plus the points i feel like but not enough where i i really feel like any way is the right way here yeah the the only i think the reason this this opened at four and a half or five even i think for for detroit because of that inflation that everyone's given them because of the chiefs detroit's detroit's banged up really banged up and from everywhere from like this the skill positions to the secondary like they're they're in the mash unit already um i do feel like this is a tough matchup for their defense going against such a physical team and that that's such a unique team and how we've we've talked about this before with atlanta but I don't like it enough to take Desmond Ritter on the road in any scenario.

But I do think the Falcons would be my play here. I kind of wish this number – if this was like 3.5, 4, 4.5 like it was a few days ago, I could probably talk you into it. But at 3, I think it's a pass. I'm agreeing with you because the next game – are we going to spend any seconds on this game? The next game, any seconds on the Colts and the Ravens. The Ravens were seven and a half point favorites.

I know that Richardson got ruled out this morning, so let's see if that line moves. Maybe you've seen it if I'm still looking. I have not seen it. It's now eight and a half. Is it crazy to think that there might be a little better with minshu like well so gardner minshu is is as one one of his last 11 starts and lost underdog no i i i would just stay far away from this game um yeah baltimore looks pretty good so far i think i'm gonna look up our

wagers we had for this year they're looking pretty good so far um we had ravens ravens to make the playoffs i don't know if we did i feel like we were lukewarm on them because we were in on cincy and that whole division has really underwhelmed like we everyone thought that was gonna be the best division and well we've seen us over and well for you on them um so i i i just don't i don't have a thought for this game i i mean here's look some of these games we're gonna have and i've done this in my i took a a teaser right like a ravens i think I took a Ravens, Jaguars, Seahawks teaser, I think I did already. I took the Ravens in a Moneyline parlay. I mean, that's how you play this game, right?

You just put them in a Moneyline parlay, put them in a teaser, and just put it as one of your legs. Yeah. Man, they're just like this Colts team. It's like, how do you bet on a team with this unknown of a quarterback and this bad of an offense? This is going to – it's like, again, one of these weird – these big teams is going to fall.

I just – I have some weird feeling about this game. It's not going to happen, but I do feel like eight and a half, you can't really take Baltimore, but there's no chance we're taking the Colts. No, you can't. Speaking of backup quarterbacks,y dalton's panthers are headed to seattle uh this line has moved to all arounds as well it was six i wonder yeah if it's moved since um let me see where we're at currently five and a half interesting i got a boost for carolina with with uh bryce young rolled out that man that is brutal this poor kid he is just he's impressed no one so far oh uh nothing i mean what do you not taking carolina here i mean i think the only play with seattle i guess um but seattle is out there tackle still, I think, right?

Like, I don't know, man. The Panthers don't seem very good. But part of that is Bryce Young hasn't played well. He's played okay. I guess not okay is the right word to use. I just have no thought on this game whatsoever. I don't either. I'm tempted on Seattle with the five and a half.

But, yeah, everyone likes the Panthers. I don't either. I'm tempted on Seattle with the five and a half. Everyone likes the Panthers that's moved the line. It's so hard with these back-up quarterbacks we haven't seen. I don't know. We've got other games to talk about. If we don't feel great about it, let's move it along. This game is not very exciting. The next game, though. I do like some more of them.

You do like what? Uh-oh. There are other games I like. This next game though i do like some more of them you do like what uh-oh are there if there are other games i like this next game is please i'm i'm nervous i'm i'm nervous that you're gonna like this one uh the cardinals are okay good 12 and a half point uh home dogs to dallas i feel like if there's one team that loves to boat race bad teams it's like it's dallas like this is where they shine uh but you obviously can't take them because the cardinals to their credit have looked competitive in each of their two games um no the way to play this game is take josh jobs under passing that's

what i've been doing every week but that's that's the wager to make um and just just don't expect him to throw for a lot of yards in this game i know trevon digs is out i get that um i think the cowboys defense was an offensive defensive control the line of scrimmage in this game um again this is just just put the cowboys in a money line parlay for the weekend that's what you do yeah it's interesting because this number this is a teaser number right like this is the number that people are going to tease this down to six and a half and it hasn't moved. And I just feel like it's so,

I just, this, this feels so weird to me. 12 and a half is like not a number. Like, that's just not like a, that's, they're only doing this so they can kill people in teasers.

Yes. And I, but like, so they think the Cardinals, this is going to be a one score game. Like I, if Vegas is saying that, I feel like we should listen,

but like, I just, it's like, how can you bet against Josh Dobbs against this Cowboys defense, especially when we talked about this, like Dak loves to just run up the score and, and you know, that offense loves to pad their stats.

It's just classic Cowboys. Do you ever do those like 13 point teasers 16 point teasers the nick weiner special no i'm i haven't really done a lot of those they're a little too exotic for my blood but uh this this could be a good candidate for that right yeah oh absolutely yeah um speaking speaking of candidates for that how about your kansas city chiefs laying a baker's dozen to the Chicago Bears, who I think have arrested the crown of worst organization. Congrats.

Congrats, Bears fans. It's yours now. We took care of it for a decade and a half or so. The Colts made a run at it, but, you know, I think you've officially got it. Arizona's in the running, too, by the way. Arizona's up there, too so i looked at i had someone to help i think i had someone help me out here um mahomes as a double digit favorite at home regular season and playoffs is 10 and 9 against a spread i actually thought it would be

like 5 and you know 19 right i didn't think it was anywhere close to this. So it's actually not profitable, but above 50%. We're not taking the kids. I'm not making the case for this. Let's talk about Justin Fields for a few minutes. So Justin Fields went out in front of the media this week and didn't really blame his coaches. I know it was came off as that way, but saying I'm being overloaded with too much information.

And part of that is I think they're telling him who to throw the ball to sometimes in the walkie-talkie, which is, by the way, how some teams have done it. Jared Goff with the Rams. Sean McVay was just telling him what to do. We know that. We talk about it all the time. He cuts off at 15 seconds on the play clock.

So they can talk to 15 seconds left, cuts off, but maybe they're telling him what to do, what not to do. So my take on this is very simple, They can talk to 15 seconds left, cuts off, but maybe they're telling him what to do, what not to do. My take on this is very simple, is the Bears are trying to not have an offense that functions through Justin Fields' legs, right? They're trying to find a traditional, quote-unquote, pro-style offense, right? Like a more traditional, we're going to be in the pocket.

Yes, you can still run the football. we have we'll have some design runs but for the most part let's try to run a more traditional operation in the nfl the problem is they suck at designing an offense the offense sucks like the offense is not called well the wide receivers don't know what they're doing fields has taken more sacks i think in the last two years than Mahomes has like his whole career. Like there's some wild number like that, Matt. It's not working. Now, is it because they're overloading him? I don't know. I would agree with the Bears' assessment of we have to run a different offense than we ran last year. They can go back and say, well, let's run the Justin Fields offense. But that's not an offense that wins you Super Bowls. Again, guys, the goal of this whole thing is to win a championship, right?

The Ravens, who have been close, said, you know what? Screw that offense. We're going to Todd Munkin's offense, right? Like, they understood that, too. So if the Bears are looking long-term, they're saying to themselves, hey, man, let's run, again, with the offensive right now. But again, the problem is it sucks. Like, Dan Arlovsky breaks down every weekend.

Guys running the same routes, tight end not running out on a route. Like, those back-to-back screen things the other day. It's not a well-called offense. But the idea of going back to this Fields offense, it really will help them survive, I guess. They're going to fire you either way. I get his frustration i get what he's saying but sometimes simplifying things doesn't lead to the end result like

sometimes you have to find a way to make it work in between of being oversimplified and and kind of or you know too overloaded and then oversimplified right so um kind of interesting but they they are a they're in a bad place. Their defensive coordinator quit. There's lots of rumors about why. You can go to Reddit and the depths of Twitter to find out. I don't have the answers for you there. Yeah. You know, McAfee reported something.

If McAfee's right, good, I guess. But if he's wrong, not good. He's the only person who's reported that so far besides a random Twitter account. So yeah, I, I, the play is nothing here. Now we're going to, one of my picks for the vaulted pool will be on this game, but it won't be if the chiefs cover or not. I just, it's just stay away from me.

I can see the chiefs using it as a get right game offensively. Haven't been very good um so yeah that's my take on this game just waste of our time to bet on it yeah well said on all the above i you mentioned there's one thing you said where you were like well the the they could go back to the fields offense and they would survive well reminder justin fields has the worst winning percentage of any starting quarterback in the nfl and by the way he's going against the one with the best patrick holmes so maybe not maybe not a perfect matchup for the bears so it's like if their choices are try to adjust the offense to something he's not getting or go back to an offense that was proven out to

be like the worst possible option like they were five five, I think they came in the season. He was five and 20 as a starter. So he's five and 22 or something like that. Now it's not great. And I will, you know, the overloading thing I think is a fair point, but I don't know if you saw this last week when they, when they were backed up at their own like goal line, basically. Yeah. And they called a screen play and they called it three times in a row and was it levante david or shack bearer one of the one of the bucks was like we saw

it coming they called the same play three times and they scored a pick six off of it it's just like who's like field should have made the throw a few people have made that argument but it's like okay like what's he supposed to do there well Well, I know. But here's the thing too. He started almost two seasons now. If he was that good, he'd be that good. Right? Like he'd be better now. So, like, all things are true. I think he's not as good as people want him to be.

He's being overloaded with too much. There's bad play calling and bad players. Those are all true things. That makes them, to your point, maybe they take the commander's crown of worst organization in the NFL. calling the bad players those are all true things uh that why that makes them to your point maybe they they take the the commander's crown of worst uh worst organization in the nfl i think we've spent matt too much time now on the bears let's get to a big topic this week we got three games left two of them i think we'll have takes on the final game of the week we will not because of

injuries let's talk about this game right now raiders steelers yeah uh the raiders i think this opened it at uh the steelers maybe being favored and now it's down to two and a half uh there's actually some plus some minus threes out there the money has just been pouring in on yeah the steelers open is a favorite the money's been pouring in on the Raiders why why is the money pouring in on the Raiders yeah no it's a great question what are we doing here I I I get the Steelers offense has not been great the Raiders often sucks too like what yeah the Raiders the Raiders have scored um have scored 27 points. They've scored against the Broncos.

They've scored two touchdowns and then one against the Bills. And the Steelers, I believe, have scored two offensive touchdowns and two defensive touchdowns. The Steelers have a better defense. They have the better roster. And what are we doing here? To me, take the seniors and the points anytime possible. Right? Again, it feels a little too easy.

It really does. I mean, this is a stat I found really interesting. Teams that open as dog and end up as favorites have have covered 35 percent of the time since 2018 pretty interesting um this is you know obviously Tomlin we say this I feel like we pick the Steelers every week because they're underdogs every week and Mike Tomlin's the best coach in NFL history as an underdog so we've still got that going for us uh the Raiders I mean the Raiders have been able to pass the ball pretty well. It looks like Jacoby Myers is probably coming back. Devontae Adams got that crazy hit from Taylor Rapp last week.

So it seems like he's going to play, but he was in the protocol this week. So who knows? They haven't been able to run the ball at all, which is crazy. Josh Jacobs, his production has been absolutely terrible that doesn't feel like it's going to get any better this week it's too it's too sketchy offenses grapple is probably the steadier quarterback but i feel like just getting the points with pittsburgh like how do you like how do you not take this if i i just i don't get it i i get the republic dog i get that the smart guys are all over the Raiders

but it just seems it I just I can't wrap my head around it I can't either I'm putting Pittsburgh in the maybes I might put them in Sharpie right now um okay it doesn't make sense to me all right the next game is one we're just gonna have to I think, be a public Joe Square on this one. But go ahead. Interesting. Okay, so it's Philly. Right now, they're going to Tampa. Right now, they're laying four and a half to five over the Bucs. Why?

Go ahead. Why? Why? Who's the why? Why is Tampa getting the money this week? This game opened at seven it's now four and a half what are we doing eagles are off a rest they have a long break they've won two football games i believe correct me if i'm wrong they've covered two football games

right well i guess they pushed week one or pushed last weekend right last thursday the vikings depending on what number you got they Covered against the Patriots. The Bucs have beaten a Vikings team that caught by surprise in week one. And the Bears. Like, where are the Bucs better than the Eagles right now?

The answer is nowhere. Now, that doesn't always mean you win and cover the game. But to me, this is like, Eagles win this game like 38 21 like what are we doing here matt i i'm shocked by this number i'd gladly be like public joe here take the eagles minus the four and a half i have no problem with it i don't get it i can't i dude i'm with you i i looked at this line and was like so what exactly are we believing in here we're believing in baker mayfield after after two weeks uh there's some issues i mean the the reason that people i think are on the bucks this week is the injury report for philly right like just a lot of people banged up

especially in the secondary where mike adams is or i'm sorry mike evans is still mike evans chris godwin is still chris godwin like they've had a really good season so far. But same on the Tampa side, Carlton Davis, he, he was limited in practice. Like, let's see him. You just know, you know what, actually I'm wondering if we, I'll look this up while we're talking. This is the AJ Brown week. AJ Brown hasn't done, hasn't done a thing this whole season so far.

He was getting into it with Jalen Hurts, who was his best friend on the sidelines last week. This is the week where they're just going to be like, you know what, AJ, here's three touchdowns. I, I completely guarantee that that's going to happen this week. He's going to go crazy. I'm with you.

I think Philly, you, you said it, they hung the seven. Everyone came in on the bucks. I think that the books are very happy to keep moving this number down and see if people are still going to bet on tampa because i do feel like like baker mayfield against this defensive line with no rushing attack is not going to be pretty like he's not going to have time to sit back there and throw like he did against the bears defense like it's just going to be a bit different and philly i get that they have some issues with health running back and in the secondary but i feel like this is a great matchup for them.

You mentioned the extra time. It almost feels like we're buying Philly low. It's like no one believes in Philly and everyone believes in the Bucs. Like, what's going on here? I don't get it. I don't get it whatsoever. So I'm going with Philly here. The last game, is Joe Burrow playing or not?

I can't bet on this game. Yeah, we don't know yet. So right now the line's two and a half, which I think assumes that Burrow is not playing or is limited. It seems like a little bit of a hedge. Yeah, so if this opened at seven and a half, that might have been a while ago.

And yeah, about half the money on each side so we're not able to take this we can save the listeners some time here um so we have okay seven maybes you ready yeah we're gonna store all these by the way in the vaulted app make sure to check that out minnesota pick'em is in right we're in a minnesota okay minnesota are we in a minnesota or not well can you read them all I want to make sure I want to make sure we have a start to pick up New England minus two and a half Green Bay minus two Denver plus six and a half Washington plus six and a half Pittsburgh plus two and a half Philly minus four and a half six and a half. Pittsburgh plus two and a half.

Philly minus four and a half. New England's a yes, right? What do we feel best about? I think New England's a yes. I think Philly's a yes. Philly, and I like Pittsburgh. Right? Yeah, I'm with you there. New England, Philly, Pittsburgh.

So then we have – the Denver game is absolutely the right play, isn't it? It has to be – it's the right play, isn't it? But we're deciding between – are we deciding between Minnesota, Washington, and Denver? Is that – Minnesota, Green Bay, Denver, Washington. We have two picks. Minnesota, Green Bay, Denver, Washington. Green Bay two picks. Minnesota, Green Bay, Denver, Washington.

Green Bay was your – I'm okay with throwing out Green Bay. I can throw out Green Bay. It's fine. Well, you always say like I'll trust you when you have a feeling. Like I trust you if you have a feeling. Yeah, but I – Let's see.

We faded the Saints week one. We covered – I don't know. They haven't – They're 0-1-1 covering. The injury stuff for Green Bay worries me though. If they don't have Watson or Bakhtiari or Jones, it's a different team, right? Yeah. Let's get that out there.

Which one of these do you like? Minnesota feels like the right side, but it also, I will, we'll have regrets. I feel like we'll regret that game if we bet it or don't bet it. Um, Denver is like, you gotta keep me honest on Washington. I feel like Denver is again, it's like the smart play, but I kind of feel like we can pick one of those two. Um, and, but pick, pick one. I think i'm fine with either oh between which one denver and washington is the dog yeah oh boy buddy you're you're i don't know. I mean, all the sharp people bet Buffalo.

It's weird. Yeah. That one seems, yeah. Our producer, Nick, owes me $20 for a lunch at Gwyneth Paltrow's salad place from last week. And I've requested that he put this on Washington. And we keep waiting for the seven, and it's not coming. So I think I'll I'm very happy to ride this one solo yeah let's do I would be upset with myself I didn't take Denver

here I know that feels weird to say but this is the most perfect NFL thing right the Denver's 0-2 they suck they stink everyone doesn't think by russell wilson they go to miami who's the darling of the league right now and that game is 27 23 right i it's this it's the responsible play um it's very responsible so i like the i like the packers you know what worries me though is like when when Chris Raybon's on the Saints. I'm like, nope, can't do it. I know. I know. He was all over that.

What side is he on? I'm sure he's laying out. I feel like none of the sharp guys are betting Minnesota or the Chargers. I know we should make a decision based on that solely, but I do respect Raybon. And when I see he's on a pick and I'm on the other side, he's one of those guys where I'm like, oh, like oh i can't be on the other side of raybon um all right so we're deciding between minnesota and washington for our for our last one is that

what's happening i think so yeah i think so yeah all right so which one which one do you feel better about coming in on monday and gabe like, you guys went two and three again. Like, what went wrong? I could totally see, like, the Bills just kicking the commander's butt versus, like, the Chargers. Like, come on. Come on. Like, it's Brandon Staley on the road again.

Chargers out, Eckler. Yeah. No Eckler. I'm good with Minnesota. The Vikings have had, like, they're, like, minus seven in turnovers. Yeah. Minnesota's due for a little positive regression here. like, they're like minus seven and turnovers. Yeah. Minnesota's due for a little positive regression here. Yes.

They've lost two post games. Okay. So Minnesota pick them. New England minus two and a half Denver plus six. I like that pick. I know I hate myself for saying that pit plus two and a half. I don't just don't get that line of Philly minus the four half. Yep.

And by the way, guys, AJ Brown, 68.5 yards. Thanks. Nick is his over under and plus one 30. Anytime TV, anytime TD.

I'm hitting both. I love it. I think, I think he's, I think he's going to have a huge week. I'm going to put that in my, my prospects for this week. Yeah.

The prospects line, they have over five i mean i i still haven't signed up for price picks with our promo code and i'm going why not i'm going to because i'm in math i'm doing i'm gonna do it while i'm gonna do it i actually think i didn't sign up with it either i think i already had a price book account i should have started another account with my name i'm doing it we have so many great partners uh i know i decided to sign up for price picks five and a half um all right why don't we take our break i have one thing i want to run by you before we get to our pool um and let's do that right after this guys i want to tell you about

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for a first deposit match up to 100 all right jeff i'll i have something i want to run by you so okay um i don't know if you're a big consumer of morning television but there's there's a lot of talk there's a lot of talk about this game that you're going to be watching on on saturday um tomorrow and uh there was this moment that i just i can't stop thinking about and it's basically just it's it's what mad dog was saying he was gonna do during the games tomorrow and it just sounded it reminded me so much of like what my dream day sort of looks like and i felt like you're not this exact kind of person but i just i don't know if you've seen this clip yet i just sort of wanted to get your reaction to how mad dog the legendary

new york sports broadcaster is going to spend his saturday watching the uh the ducks and the buff play uh let's let's take a look at what he had to say here's what i'm doing this weekend. At about 12 o'clock, I sit down, I make an early cocktail, cut a gummy in half. What's a gummy? At about 325, when I'm sauced, I'm not driving in the house, 325, I'll put the call in to Fat Rob. 718-504, I'll put the call in to Fat Rob. Rob, you know what?

What the hell? I can't root for Oregon. All right, I'll pretend the call in the fat rock. Rob, you know what? What the hell? I can't root for Oregon. All right. I'll pretend on TV. Put 10 dimes on Colorado. It's Colorado and Dion. Let's win the game. So by 325, I'll be sitting down with my shorts,

little t-shirt, cocktail. I'll have the other half a gummy. Oh, you save it for later? I'll have half and half. I thought you were just rationing it. I will bet the ranch and I will rule crazy for the buff on Saturday afternoon.

Marcus Spears' reaction to that was unbelievably funny. So Russo's going to have a cocktail, a gummy. He's going to have a cocktail, he's going to have half a gummy, then he's going to bet $10,000 on Colorado, then he's going to have a cocktail. He's going to have half a gummy. Then he's going to bet $10,000 on Colorado. Then he's going to have the other half a gummy. And then he's going to enjoy the Colorado game.

And I just thought to myself, like, you know what? That just sounds like a perfect Saturday. Good for Mad Dog. We're 24 hours away from that happening in his life. And I just wish him the best. Like, it's just going to be a great little Saturday for Mad Dog. I love that he still has a bookie that he called out by name and gave his phone number. Oh, he started dialing his phone number.

For his bookie? He said he's going to give him 10 dimes. 718-504. Oh, and then he cuts himself off. He's like, wait, I shouldn't have this guy's phone number. I'm admitting to taking drugs on national television. Maybe I should give my bookies phone number. Sports wagering is legal in New York.

You could just go to – Correct. And in Connecticut, I think, where you live. Caesars, wherever he's at, and wager 10 grand this game. Oh, my God. I'm not getting sauced this Saturday, guys. Thanks for the headline, Nick. I appreciate that.

I take half a dummy. What a life. I get sauced. I bet the ranch on Colorado. He's going to lose a lot of money. The thing about wagering, too, is you have to be comfortable losing all that money. He's going to bet 10 dimes on their money line or just plus 21. That was not in there.

I don't know, man. It's a donation to a great casino either. Or excuse me, to Fat Rob either way. I just love Swagoo there with that reaction. What does Fat Rob look like? Steven's just like – What does Fat Rob look like? I think he looks rich is my guess on if he's Matt Dawes,

but he's taking 10K in a big. Is he ironically Big Rob or is he fat oh that's a great question like when they call like if someone would be like if if one of our nicknames was skinny they'd be like yeah yeah yeah um oh god what what a what a great clip what what steven a couldn't believe it. Marcus. Stephen A just staring blankly. I just, I've turned into, I'm in on 100% of whatever is fed to me of Mad Dog clips. Like ESPN does this, First Egg does a segment,

I think every Friday, of like what's Mad Dog mad about? And he just, he gets like this close to the camera and Stephen A and like whoever else is on the show just like stand behind him and he just cooks and it's like he could just do four minutes on like the yankees middle relievers like can you believe it they pulled him out of the game and i lost twenty thousand dollars it's just it's mayhem like they'll shoot from the side and like he'll be squatting and you'll just like see him like this, like literally just like in the camera.

It's incredible. Him and Francesa in the heyday must've been great to listen to. I know. I didn't really know about them until I moved to, well, I've really started working in sports and it's like, then, you know,

you already missed it in the New York heyday, but. I know. Like a bunch of bosses at Sirius were WFn during that time so it's uh it's fun to hear them talking about all right let's get to our vaulted pool that we like here 20 20 uh picks for the week in the pool go to the vaulted app vltd promo code jeff that's my name if you listen to this podcast i hope you know by now it's jeff for the G-E-O-F-F. Let's talk about the ones that caught my attention right here. So I did put down the Bills covering against the Commanders, covering six and a half.

He's not one of our five wagers, but I do – I think I'm disagreeing with that one. I think I'm going with the Commanders. Let's go head-to-head. Plus the six and a half. Okay. I talked you into it. You want me to take the Bills? Or you want me to take – I'll take the Bills and you take the Commanders.

Let's do that. Let's have fun with that. I'm fine with that. We'll have a little challenge right now. A challenge in the pool. I love it. I'm fine with that. The other one, I have a couple more here.

Mahomes throws for more than 267.5 yards against the Bears. I'm going with agree here. At some point, Mahomes is going to break out. I think it's against this Bears defense. Like, there has to be a game, feels like this weekend, where they're going to try to get the pass game going early and often. There's opportunities there. Having connected, Travis Kelsey's one week healthier.

I just can't imagine that Mahomes continues to sort of have these games where it's kind of broad. But he did stuff for 305 yards last weekend. So it wasn't like the worst game of his career last weekend. The offense wasn't very good. There's also something about the Bears. Like they did not draft him. He still holds a grudge.

So I agree with that. 267 yards, 267.5 yards more, I will agree with that one. What say you, Matt? Okay, fair enough. I'm just punching in my disagree with the Buffalo Bills covering 10 points. Let's fly. I wish my A.J. Brown thing was in here, but I will say there was one number I really did like that I had teed up, but now I don't.

It's interesting. There's so many receiving ones. I think the Cardinals' team total under 15.5 is a good one if you wanted to take the – if you believe that Dallas is just going to run away with this one. I happen to have James Conner in a lot of my fantasy leagues. And I'm just – That's in here. they're never going to run the ball one of the cardinals will score more than 15 15.5 points under there i i like in this game too i have here um one of the ones i highlighted the pool again go to vaulted app and join my pool josh jobs will

rush for more yards and he will throw completions. Absolutely. That's great. Right? He'll rush for 25 yards. He's not completing the ball. When you have a pass rush like the Cowboys, he's going to want to rush the passer, rush the passer, rush the passer. Then he's going to run.

He's going to have opportunities to run when they don't get home on him. And remember, Saxon don't count against rushing yards. He's not going to complete a lot of passes. I think this is – he rushes the count against rushing yards. He's not going to put you a lot of passes. I think this is, you know, he rushes the ball for 22 yards. He's going to complete the ball 22 times in this game? I don't think so. Doesn't seem right. Doesn't seem right.

And these are really fun ones. These head-to-head quarterback ones are fun. Like, Kirk Cousins having more yards than Herbert, I think is a really fun question. Well, I put it here, Vikings beat the Chargers, agree. Yeah, that's a 10ings beat the chargers agree yeah that's a 10 for me i just i just notched that as a 10 100 i think that's if we got to go where put a part of money where our mouth is um absolutely uh the last one i think is interesting here um is the watson will throw for more passing yards of ryan thill? I mean, that's a yes, right?

I agree. How can – Yeah, I think so. Right? I think it has to be. Yeah. So, all right. Those are our vaulted pool plays that we like for the week.

Remember, go to the vaulted app, promo code Jeff, and join the pool. Jeff with a G. It's a lot of fun. People rolling in are ready. Remember, it's free to join and you win money. Matt, it seems like something very easy to do to win yourself a little bit of cash if you're able to beat me

and win the pool for the week, then you qualify for the big game entry, which is $5,000 pool for that final game of the year. All right, everyone. Hope you guys enjoyed the show. We will be back on Monday. It will be during Yom Kippur. I will be hangry because I'll be tired and I'll be hungry

and I will not have any water. Hopefully it goes well for me so I'm not even angrier at Gabe than I am on some Mondays. And, yeah, have a great weekend watching sports. Go Ducks. Take care, everyone.