Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Episode Date: September 29, 2023

it's friday september 29th i'm jeff schwartz is jeff schwartz asmarni we're live on twitter youtube and we're on your favorite podcast platform of choice please subscribe and download we love getting all the listens we can and the feedback we can from this show we're brought to you by the vaulted app the home my season-long game giving out fourteen thousand dollars of cash prizes in my pools with five thousand allotted for the big game it's vaulted spelled v l t e d it's a place you can store your sports predictions participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees and prove you're smarter than your friends and smarter than me by using the vaulted challenge feature i have my own pool each week on vaulted the answer questions to win cash prizes there's no entry fees

and 400 to the winner it's legit 400 75 to second place all you got to do is go to the app go to the pools enter my pool no entry fee but the only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools which matt unfortunately feels very easy right now because i am stinking i'm enjoying doing this obviously but it is not very good go download vaulted v l t e d and use my code jeff that's g e o f f so you can see my predictions and play along not a lot of fun using vaulted matt but like whoo i'm babe it's not going well for me buddy man maybe this will be the week but we've uh it's it's really fun to play like it's fun looking through the the uh the picks that are available and seeing how many we just sort of like talk about anyway so i feel like they have a good

sort of finger on the pulse of like what's a fun bet what's a good conversation starter it is a great way to sort of go up against your friends uh i have my i'm in a super contest pool with a buddy and and he's entered this and listens to this and and uh yeah it's fun i'm talking to him i'm doing this i'm doing this show with him after this where we make our picks. I love it. I love it. So at the end of the show,

we'll go over some of the 20 pool questions for this week. The ones that we like the most. We'll continue to let you know about the pool. And again, I mean, we're giving away money, man, for free. Free to enter. You win. You get money. So please sign up on the Vaulted app as usual. We're giving away money, man, for free. Free to enter. You win. You get money.

So please sign up on the Vaulted app. As usual, on our Friday show, we go through all the games of the NFL slate. We're going to pick out our five that we're going to put into the contest. We'll put these also into the Vaulted app. And last week, we went 3-2, Matt. We're 7-7-1, I believe, through three weeks. I believe my math is correct on that. We went 3-2.

We went 2-2-1, and two we went two and two one two two and one and then we went uh three and two so uh this is actually better than we normally start matt so i'm actually pretty feel pretty good about our beginning of the season yeah i mean we we were our annual week two dumpster fire and then we came back around and here we are like we're we're we're flying Jeff. I think, I think, you know, that we've sort of got over the hump. We've exercised some of our early demons. We have talked to me out of a few, we ended up going with Denver. So we lost by 70 points last week. That's fine. You did talk to me out of the commanders, which was an absolute stinker as well.

We saved ourselves from the Titans last week. Like our process worked for the most part um but you know we we fell into the sean payton pothole and you know that happens i i'm gonna give you a little bit of a tease i think we're going back to sean payton pothole this weekend buddy that's a little bit of a tease we'll talk about that game betting that game i refuse i will not do it i will not we're not gonna start with that game we are not betting that game i refuse i will not do it i will not we're not gonna start with that game we're gonna start with the game in london jacksonville and the falcons matt what do we got for numbers on this one yeah so the contest line for the super contest line is three

uh it's been pretty much around two and a half or three most of the week jeff so i'll just say jacks by three on the neutral slash sort of home fields um and yeah what do you what do you think uh until we get to broncos three and a half in our contest um i uh i i never want to bet the london game any international game i i feel like any sort of edge you sort of ever get whether that's home or way like whatever the the rhythm and flow of how you wager on a game i feel it's different when you go overseas i might be making something out of nothing dude it might just be my own head doing this uh but i try to stay away from these games like for example jacksonville's offense right now is losing the most yards in the nfl drop passes, like the most explosive plays, the most touchdowns, the most yards. At some point, their offense will come around.

Right now, if this game was at home, I'd be like, great. They're home all week. They're in their own confines. They're in their comfortable beds. They're at home. They'll figure this out at home, right? But now it's sort of like, well, are they going to figure this out in London? Like, is London the place where they get right in offense?

I don't buy the Falcons ever. Like, the Falcons, we've talked about them many times here. I think they're just okay. You know, the 8-win team, 7-win team. If this was at home, I'd be all over Jacksonville minus the 3-mat. But, like, I feel something different about the game being in London. Yeah, I feel that. I feel like we've tended to avoid uh the London games altogether

in our history we can do that again you mentioned the drops I mean Atlanta just seems like Atlanta's a really strange team and I feel like they're getting a little extra credit having said that I feel like Jacksonville is still not like totally being fairly priced like are we in or we out on Jacksonville like we'll get to the Texans game in a bit with the Steelers. And like the Texans are being treated like fairly respectfully, but like also the Jaguars are sort of being treated like they're like this really tough. I don't, I don't understand like how those teams are being valued.

I will just say like in the past, the favorite has tended to cover and win in these london games i am very curious though as we see for the first time what it's like when uh a team is prepping to stay there for two weeks doug peterson said something like they're they're not sure how they're gonna film study when they're in london like this is like a whole different thing so i i agree i feel like this is a stay away um but i do think jeff until until the falcons replace desmond ritter with my guy taylor heineke i don't think i can bet on them i just don't think i can do it like if they're up and can run the ball all day

great but they are just such a strange team their defense is like fine but jacksonville i think is going to bounce back this is a lot of time on a game we're not betting but a good pass i do i think i lean jacksonville but not for us okay what do you got next the next game i got is i'm sad it's up next because it's probably the best game of the week it's the bills hosting the dolphins the super contest line's two and a half it's been at two and a half all week everyone thinks it's going to get to three with the bills at some point yeah i i'm really curious where you are here even if we don't bet it's at three about it there's threes now if you want to get three right now um either side right now you wouldn't take buffalo you take the two and a half but there are some dolphins plus three

um not it's somewhere. You can get a couple of these. Fando has one up here, so there's ways to get one if you would like. This, to me, is a stay-away game for me personally, Matt. I don't know how you feel about this game because you have a Dolphins team that we tried to fade last weekend, right? Say, look, they're not going to keep this up. And just for the ebb and flow of the NFL, not really that the Dolphins stink,

just like the ebb and flow of the NFL is like the Broncos come in there, they stink, and they keep getting close. The Dolphins scored 10 offensive touchdowns, an NFL record. Their offense is so good right now. And can Buffalo slow them down enough? We saw the games played in Buffalo last season between these two teams were high scoring. So I think two have played, one of them, right? And then one was in, that was the snow two teams were high scoring. So I think Tua played

one of them, right? And then one was in, that was the snow game, if I recall. And then they played in the playoff game without Tua and scored a bunch of points

as well. So I think the total is really high too, around like 54, which is high for an NFL game. I honestly don't have a feel for this game. I think it'd be Miami plus three

if I can find a plus three and just take the team playing really well. Buffalo has bounced back after week one. It does feel like week one is every year now, as we have less and less preseason, Matt, just throw out week one, right? Like the Rams beat the Seahawks.

The Rams might not win a game the rest of the season, right? Like the Bills lost the Jets. You know, like just throw those games out, right? Just throw them out. Look what the Bills have done the last two weeks. I think it's a really close game. I would lean toward the points and the Dolphins, but not a game that i i really want to put money on yeah i it's funny i mean i really do think that um i just i feel like this is one of those that the smart guys kind of

make us overthink like why exactly is buffalo i know that miami just pasted the broncos and who were the broncos but the bills just pasted the commanders they they killed the raiders i agree with you that the jets thing you you maybe just throw it out but like well i just don't feel like the dolphins are getting adequately respected here like buffalo is get i still feel like is getting graded on a curve based on past results like Like they've looked good. Diggs and Allen have been great. The running game looks a little bit better, but like there's part of me that just sort of says like, so I'm getting the best team in the league, getting three points against

a team with like an okay defense. Like the, the bill's secondary is solid, but this is the fastest team in the league. Like you think Micah hyde and jordan poyer are going to keep up with jaylen waddle and tyree kill like i don't see it and i do i think that everyone's sort of like well the dolphins aren't going to score 70 again and it's like okay could they score 30 like 100 so if i had to pick this, it would be Miami. Absolutely. But everybody in the gambling community is on the other side. So I'm sure I'm missing something. But if Miami ends up winning, I feel like I'm just going to sort of be like,

why didn't we bet this? Why didn't we just take the points in a divisional game with probably the better team and right now the better quarterback? But couldn't you argue the other way that it's priced in in a way that vegas is telling you buffalo is better yeah that's that is what they're trying to that is seemingly what they're trying to say but i sometimes feel like stay away for us yeah it's it's a stay away but i there's there's a part of me that wants to passionately argue for the dolphins i'm not going to um but this will be a fun game to watch. I will tell you what.

I'd be okay to put Miami plus three into a maybe. If we don't have five games we like, that's not a bad place to be. Yeah, that's exactly how I feel about it. Okay. All right, Miami plus three as a maybe. Speaking of, we were talking about the best game of the week. Here's a bad game. The Minnesota Vikings are four-point road favorites at the Andy Dalton Panthers.

I think Bryce Young's going to play. Oh, boy. Geez. No. No, I know, I know, I know, I know. Stop. Because we're going to lay the three and a half on denver i have to choose one of the other here um no we're not so minnesota's oh and three there were 10-0 last season one score games to oh and three one score games now um so it's going

to turn around at some point their turnovers are killing them right these turnovers in the first half the fumbles are just killing any of the offense. They're not a bad football team. But I'm not laying four on the road against Carolina. Carolina, by the way, we were wrong on Carolina. They just – they're not good on the offensive line yet. They have no weapons for Bryce Young. He has not looked as good as C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson quite yet.

They're just not good right now. But the Vikings minus four is not a place I want to put my money on. No, it's not. Earlier in the week, it would have been a good opportunity to bet this. I think it was like two and a half and three just a day or two ago. But everyone got wise to the Vikings. This is a hard stay away. There's so many things that could come out of this.

If the Vikings end up losing, could Kirk Cousins really get traded? I kind of feel like that. No, I – We don't have to really talk about it. No. Okay, you're the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is back next season. So are you saying you're done with Aaron Rodgers?

Is this a one-year Cousins thing? Like, hope you make the Super Bowl. What if you make the Super Bowl with C bowl with cousins you have to bring them back i think this is like no trade for them i feel like this is not even an option i don't know if they're the only team we mentioned it other teams going for cuts okay i could buy other teams it's interesting like there's some there's some other teams where if you played this game you could say like huh like atlanta is the one that comes to mind for me i doubt that that would actually happen but it's a fun exercise really interesting if you put like a competent quarterback in there all of a sudden pits and london and all those guys you know the one i was thinking about

the team that could really use him and would actually maybe be kind of good how about his old team the manders yeah yeah washington yeah isn't that funny a funny idea take him for a year and then just move on they would actually they could use yeah that'd be a good spot it's like kind of the perfect fit honestly yeah yeah all right enough enough vikings good luck to these two winless teams jeff i'm just not allowing you to talk me into this. I am going to be very firm with you. The Broncos go ahead. The Broncos are laying three in Chicago. The team that just got a 70-burger put on them. I get it. They're probably going to be better than last week. But tell me

why you have confidence that this is the week that you have any idea what's going to happen in this game well here's the thing okay so the broncos lost by 50 70 to 20 okay 50 they're on the road and they're the favorite over the bears. Vegas is telling you the Bears freaking suck. Matt, this is Vegas telling you. Like, the Bears are so bad that a team that lost by 50, who is 0-3, you're hosting that team, and Vegas is telling you that it's like 3-1⁄2, I think now, that in this game open, I think it's two and a half, and it immediately went to three, three and a half.

They're telling you that Denver is the far better team. Now, look, is it one of my favorites this week? No, but I don't think it's a bad wager. The Bears are dead. It's not that they – the Broncos have some life. They have some life. What life? The Bears are dead. It's not that they – the Broncos have some life. Like, they have some life. The Bears – What life?

The Bears look – actually, you know what actually is not a – we can't do first halves here. But Broncos' first half, I think, is a great wager. They've been great in the first half of games. It's the second half, not great. Take that back. They're down to the Dolphins by a lot. But they've only scored –

They've only gone by 45. They've scored 22 points the second half of games this season on offense. That's it. Like, they have done nothing the second half of games. And one of those, I think, was a kickoff return, the Hail Mary. Like, they've scored nothing the second half of games. Matt, it's not – I'm actually kind of curious about this. It's not the worst bet that we've ever had. I'm just telling you, it's not – I'm actually kind of curious about this. It's not the worst bet that we've ever had.

I'm just telling you, it's not. I actually think it would be. I'm not kidding. And it's not because – I agree with you, and I agree with you that of two dead teams, like the Bears are more dead. Like the Bears are like a 17th century person and the Broncos are like a 20th century person. Like, they're dead, but they were more recently alive.

So I'll give them credit for that. If you had to guess at which one of, like, in our former job that we worked together, which person would be on the Bears this week? If you had to guess who that would be, who would it be? It would not be our colleague Chrisris raybon who's a genius it would be it would would it be chad i guess maybe yeah which i which is like it's like it's one of those things where like just suck it up and bet the bears i think if you're a sharp guy right this week i don't know no if you're a sharp guy you don't bet this game like this is there's a chance i was looking i was looking at

it because chad wins the nfl oh that does win the nfl we love chad shout out to chad and he's fine chad's awesome he got us into the he got us into this business um whoo all right let's i just don't see an edge i honestly like the edge is the bears fucking suck that's the edge the bears the broncos suck ass like they're not ass man not as bad but enough of these shitty games we talked about okay let's get to a game we might have so many good games i just refused it like okay i think there's like 10 games we talked about hold on i let you just talk a bunch of bullshit about the goddamn Broncos. I'm going to say one thing here.

So every Sunday by 10, 14 a.m. Pacific, I get a text from Jeff full of self-hate. That's just like, why the hell did we bet on Sam Howell? Or insert terrible team, bad quarterback, Texans, some dumb ass team. We wouldn't even make it to kickoff before you looked at Russell Wilson and thought to yourself, why did I get on my own show and convince my buddy to bet his reputation on the goddamn Broncos? I just, I won't allow it. That is the best point you've made about not betting on the broncos is the idea that i have put my hard-earned money on one russell wilson um yeah that's right our friends at vaulted would not be happy with us no they would they wouldn't sponsor two losers who bet the broncos let's

move on this by the way there are two there are two pool questions on the vaulted up for this game. I'm going to put in Broncos cover the three and a half as a 10-point vaulted. Agree, by the way. I'm telling you right now. All right, let's go to the next game. All right, next game, a very interesting game in the AFC North. The Browns are two and a half point favorites to Baltimore. This traditionally feels like a spot where we'd take Baltimore,

but I am just guessing. I feel like we're going to both be on the Cleveland side. That's just a guess. Well, it's Baltimore plus three now. It's moving out to three. I kind of think like you have to be on Baltimore plus three here, right? Like this is Harbaugh is great as underdog. You can't wager on him, in my opinion, on the other side of Harbaugh.

He just played a really bad football game against the Colts. The Browns had the opposite, right? The Browns had a great game against the Titans. It does feel like Baltimore is a side here at three points. If you're getting three points, I'm fine with Baltimore. Are you on the Browns here? It's funny, I was. You're talking me into it, but I'll tell you my Browns argument

before we sort of decide here. So first of all, Ravens are one of the most banged up teams in the league. They kind of always are at this point of the season. But they're getting some guys back, right? I stanley's back they're practicing they're questionable but even if they're just limited like this browns defense they've allowed one series to go into the red zone this entire season and the titans didn't get points out of that that was that trail on burke's bomb like their defense is playing at a historic clip and a pretty limited baltimore offense with some injuries you know there's be's Beckham has his, there's,

there's no running backs. Like this is not a team that I feel like is going to go on the road and match up well with this unbelievable defense. The thing is though, like the sharps are with you. It's odd. Like all of the money is on Baltimore, but the line moved in their favor. That is kind of strange. But Baltimore is the best road team against the spread since last season. Lamar is always better as an underdog. Harbaugh is always better as an underdog. Stefanski stinks in the division. All the trends are on your side. I just feel like with Cleveland, their defense is probably the best

unit in the entire league right now. I just don't know if Baltimore is going to go out onto the road and be able to beat this team. Can I give you some numbers here? The Ravens are 19-4 against the spread, and their last 23 games is an underdog. Their last three seasons, Lamar Jackson is 6-0, is an underdog against the spread. I can continue on.

John Harbaugh is 20 games over.500 against the spread as an underdog. That's unbelievable. It's just like a Raven spot. You get the three points. I think you just look at them and you say all the reasons. Brown's played really well last week. The Ravens didn't. It's a divisionalional game uh ravens are getting a little bit healthier left tackle i don't know man i i don't want to lay with you i'm not i don't want to lay with cleveland i'll

tell you that yeah i'm i would take baltimore at the three i think um all the i mean the trends are overwhelming and you know we kind of are middle of the road as far as how much trends matter um but i will say lamar you mentioned him as a as a favorite as a dog six no against the spread as a dog six and 15 against the spread as a favorite really interesting way better on the road as a dog uh than than at home so yeah i i'll i would consider this the three is really interesting it is scary to me though that the line that there's a little bit of a reverse line movement here it feels like it feels like the smart guys love the browns this year but i agree we're getting we're buying low in baltimore after a loss they were um the sharp

one of the sharp over favorites this season. Like that was the Browns were. Yeah. All right. Let's do the next game. Yeah. Another AFC North team. The Steelers are a three point or two and a half,

depending where you look in the contest, three point road favorites in Houston against the Frisbee Texans. Are we playing Houston here here god man i've gone back and forth on this game all day because here's the thing you never want to bet tomlin as a road favorite you never want to bet tomlin as a road favorite after a win like the trends are unbelievable he's the best he's the best coach in nfl history as an underdog fourth worst team against the spread as a road favorite since tomlin's got there 33 against the spread as road favorites under tomlin after a win having said all that this is a banged up texans offensive line going against tj watt a rookie quarterback facing the toughest defense he's faced i know they face

baltimore but baltimore is not the same team as usual so again the trends tell you hey stay away from this or take houston i just kind of feel like these this is the kind of game that pittsburgh really won a bunch of last year as they sort of went down the stretch and got really hot and i just like imagine cj stroud facing this level of defense like i just i'm not sure that it's going to work out for him. And it's really interesting that, that this line is what it is. Like,

I don't think that anybody really has a lot of faith in Pittsburgh at this point. The Texans are everyone's new favorite team. They won a very fluky game last week. So I feel like you're kind of, you're not getting like a whole lot of love for Pittsburgh, but you, the Texans are weirdly getting a lot of love despite being the dogs on this.

So I think I would lean Pittsburgh. I'm kind of curious if, if I convinced you at all. Oh, geez. Um, I haven't really thought about it. I'm not passionate,

but I do feel like it's, it's one of these games that we kind of have to look at because I feel like it's really obvious one way or the other. And I can't tell if I'm right or wrong. I didn't have a feel in this game, is one of your favorites right you like that I tell you like this no it's it's actually not I was really curious where you landed because I think I mean I into either side I mean I just I think then we just don't play it but I would certainly land on the side of the home team plus a three because of everything you mentioned with Pittsburgh I don't like their offense.

It's hard for them to score points. Like, just hard. Like, they have to have explosive plays to score points. And I think C.J. Stroud is sort of good. He looks like he belongs in the NFL after three weeks. I think Texans are playing with some urgency lately. They're scoring the ball better. Yeah, to me, it's just to stay away yeah all right fair

enough um moving on to we're almost we're almost out of the one o'clock games here the colts and the rams interesting this is down to a pick in the contest yeah uh this is bounced around all weekend looks like richardson is probably going to play is what we think. So I think the play is the Colts here, and I'd be totally okay with putting them in our thing. The Rams just aren't good. Like they won week one, all right, 30-13. Since then, McVay kicked that late field goal to cover that Niners game, but remember it was 30-20 until the last play of the game, okay?

The Niners were in fairly controlled. There's also a Thursday night game, right? No, no, no. That was the Niners-Giants game. Then last weekend, they lost 19-16. They were back on the road again. I don't think the Rams are that good. The Colts are frisky, man.

Like, they can call an offense. Like, it's very clear Shane Stecken knows what he's doing on offense. They scored 21-31, and they scored 22 on the road in overtime against a good Baltimore team. I think the Colts are certainly the side here for the Rams playing another back-to-back road games. The Rams just aren't very good dude and the colts i think can get richardson back in the lineup makes enough plays and i think they're

legitimately gonna just win this game outright i mean it's a pick them obviously i'll take it like it just feels like a spot for the colts here man i'm totally on the other side of this that's so interesting so i really the argument i was going to make about the rams is like the rams should have beaten the bangles last week like they had every chance to win that game down the stretch they had the ball in the red zone they ended up not being like they ended up losing a very close game to a team that absolutely needed a win and they felt like they stole the game like the rams had a chance at the end and couldn't pull it off and like yeah you're right they were they

were down pretty bad to the niners okay like the niners are awesome and they beat the seahawks they played three playoff teams to start the season probably right like if we had to guess so the colts like what are the like the colts and and the the Rams honestly I think are at about the same talent level there's a coaching advantage on the Ram side I know that they're back on the road after a crushing loss but like this is kind of the spot where like you do like a coach like McVay right like you're buying low off of a loss I just closed the window with all of his stats but mcveigh tends to do really well with short rest he's three and one uh straight up and against the spread on rest uh 10 and 3 since 2019 the most profitable coach uh in the nfl in in that spot um he's where's the stat about him

uh that i was looking for? Well, whatever. He tends to do incredibly well off of a loss. Their strengths are like, you know, the Colts defense is nothing to be super proud of. I mean, their offense is like the read option and, you know, 11 passes a game to Michael Pittman. Like, I don't think they're a complicated team to stop. And I don't think that they've played the same caliber of teams as the rams and like the rams as long as stafford is playing like stafford is like a legitimate top 10 guy and he's turning

puka nakua and van jefferson and tutu atwell like into a real offense like i think they've kind of got something and they're going to be competitive until something you know something changes or they decide to take their foot off the gas but i just don't see it with the colts really like good for them they beat baltimore but i feel like that's fine we can throw out we could or we weren't if we disagree i i don't know if we need to put a game, the Rams into the contest. No, no, no, no. We don't have to. We could go next.

Because I think the next one is one of the, well, I don't know what the schedule is, but there's a couple games here I think we do like. Yeah, I hope so. So my next one I see is Saints-Bucks. The Saints are three-point favorites at home. Jameis Winston, the quarterback. Can we please take tampa

no tampa sucks tampa's awful is a favorite oh my god what are we doing dude tampa i understand tampa's not good though like you you're gonna lay three points at baker mayfield against the defense that doesn't allow any points the saints have gonna lay three points of baker mayfield against the saints defense that doesn't allow any points the saints have allowed getting three points i mean yeah sorry you're getting three points it's uh it's they've allowed 16 17 and 17 and the bucks with baker mayfield are going to walk into the the the superdome and score anything over 14 points, the Saints can move the ball with Jameis, right? Like they can do that.

Am I wrong to think that? Jameis has played 28 games in his career. He's covered eight of them. Dennis Allen in his career. No, Jameis has played more than 28 games. He's eight. Well, here's what i have is he's 8 19 and one and maybe in his last 28 dennis allen dennis allen 5 12 and 2 against the spread in divisional games 38.9 against the spread in his career the bucks swept them last year the public and the

sharps were on the bucks here i'm really surprised that i thought this was just an easy one to grab the points especially if you get the three and a half which is out there um to fade jamis winston but especially with i i but i don't feel i don't feel super strongly about taking baker mayfield but i just felt like we'd be on the same side of this one yeah i'm i'm not i'm just i'm i'm not on the i'm this is probably the most we've ever disagreed i feel like we're we've been on other sides of every single one of these that's so interesting uh we have been but i think the next game is finally the one that we agree on at one o'clock slot there's two left oh two why is this a yeah is there a divisional game i i like both of the both of these i think okay great uh the eagles and the commandantes los commandantes uh sam howell's guys are getting eight points in philly buddy it's nine now wow huh yeah give me the commanders plus nine right

interesting i wouldn't think this would have made your list go ahead go ahead i think the commanders we saw last year they beat them last season right um? The Eagles, there's something a little bit off right now. And Washington does have the lines to compete in this game, right? The question is, is how badly is Sam Howe going to mess it up? And they played so poorly last weekend. I think they play much better this weekend, first of all, as they played poorly last weekend. I think they play much better this weekend, first of all, as they played poorly last year. But there's just something a little bit off with the Eagles, a tiny bit.

Now, last season, the Eagles scored only 24 points and 21 points against Washington. Like, something about their defense, that they sort of have the Eagles locked in. I remember that first game of the year was – they played with that Carson Wentz game, an ugly Carson Wentz game. They beat them with Taylor Heineke later in the season. I got nine points. I think it was a lot off an embarrassing loss last week

and Eagles on a short week. Yeah. Divisional games with a plus nine, with a decent team off of a really big blowout loss, I do feel like is generally a sensible play. I did not think that this would really make our cut, but now that you're seeing a nine, I am intrigued. I mean, the thing with Washington is their biggest problem is that Sam Howell just doesn't understand how to move in the pocket

and evade pressure, and he's taking sacks at a rate that David Carr would be like, my God, dude, get rid of the ball. I know. I do think the enemy is going to scheme him out of it at some point. And they're going to have to run the ball a lot. And that had that they, they were able to sort of control the game last year when they won the Philly, the game in Philly by just pounding it with Robinson all games.

So I do feel like they will have some confidence. Rivera, since he's been in Washington, off of a huge loss, he's covered the next four times that that's happened. So I do feel like they'll be prepared. They're a veteran coaching staff. There's pride involved with this, a division opponent. Again, their defense has played well against Philly.

It's part of my calculation here. They played well against philly like it's part of my calculation here like they played well against philly if they i mean look you know 24 17 yet we cover like it's a nine is a lot of points dude yeah it is hurts is awesome at home as a favorite um i have no doubt that the eagles will win this game but i think moshen could make him sweat and this is essentially like, you know, down 14, we're still alive in the fourth quarter.

So I'm, I'm into advance this one to the next round for sure. Yeah. Plus nine is it's interesting that the eat with all the Eagles love, by the way, like this is sort of why I was into the bucks. Yeah. The bucks,

like my couple of Mike Evans drops, a couple of sort of weird plays down the stretch. Like they could have stolen that game from Philly. And I don't think Philly is as good as people think there is something a little bit off with them and I think people are very very just like yeah sure like they're gonna be they're gonna be awesome they're going back to Super Bowl like let's see this it would be unprecedented if they did much better than you know four or five and oh like that'd be it truly would be all right so washington's in the mix of plus nine i think that we can find some consensus on this next game the last one of the one o'clocks the bangles are laying two and a half to three i think now to the titans uh

do you want to make the mike rabel speech or should i um no i mean we're this is one of our five it's like it's already done um you know i know that vick and and nick are playing this game where they i'm looking at the line right or the point loans right now it's it's two and a half um they're playing this game where they're guessing like which wagers we take every week and this i hope they got this one this one was easiest one i think to pick up all of them um you have tennessee is a home dog which is incredible with mike rabel right t? Tennessee off a terrible loss. And the Bengals with Burrow, man, like it's just – it's tough.

It's tough to score points. It's tough to move the ball. You're playing a really good defense. The one issue, though, is that the Bengals' defense is good too. They've held Derrick Henry in check when they play Tennessee. I like the two-and-a-half, man. Three is better obviously but i have no problem with the two and a half with uh with with tennessee here

yeah me too and mike vrabel straight up profitable as an underdog uh straight up so like he wins games as underdog you're profitable if you bet the titans money line every time they're underdogs since vrabel's been there so you know this isn't like we're not going to enjoy this but we got to do it and i think it's a really i think it's a sensible play um so okay give me the give us the titans we've definitely got that one in yeah uh the the 4 p.m games are very muddy we've got the first one is the chargers playing five and a half to the raiders is jimmy garoppolo playing is that do we know that yet but i just it's the chargers man like you just the thing about this game is like you know the raiders aren't winning i don't think and maybe

the chargers just it's just a game where they everything goes right for them and they beat a team by two scores because they're much better than the raiders but it's the Chargers just, it's just a game where they, everything goes right for them and they beat a team by two scores because they're much better than the Raiders. But it's the Chargers. They're always, you know, the game's tied with five minutes left all the time, right? Like, it's just what they are. And so I just think we can't play this. No, they just don't win games by much. Like, even going back to last year, like, towards the end of the year,

there were some blowout wins. But I almost feel like any time there's, like, around to touchdown line, you just got to take the other side. But we're definitely not doing that. I do feel like if the Chargers can't cover this one, they're never going to cover anything. But we have to pass it because we don't even know who the quarterback is. It's the Chargers. Okay, so this is an interesting one. Dallas, a really good game here.

Dallas, off of a loss, is laying seven at home to the Patriots. It feels like these two teams always have kind of a weird game when they play each other. I'm curious if you like either side here. I think I see six and a half now, which is obviously – to move off that number means it's got a lot of Patriots money, right, to move off seven. I mean, the Patriots offensively are just atrocious, Matt.

Like they're really bad offensively. They just have trouble with explosive plays. They can't run the football very well. They've scored, what, 20, 17, and 15? They maybe had a defensive score in there too. I have no idea. Dallas played really bad last weekend. I have to imagine when New England come into town,

they have their full effort, their full attention. I'd be okay laying six and a half with Dallas. It's not my favorite, but I don't know what New England does other than hopes and prayers and thoughts and prayers to get more offense. They just don't score enough. They just don't move the ball enough. Even without Diggs, the Cowboys aren't, in this specific game, they're not threatened downfield vertically.

They're not going to miss Diggs as much. Yeah, that's true. The thing with dallas though that um we we have sort of seen that you can run the ball on them a bit and i do feel like that is their weakness on defense and i i'm not i don't know what to make of them and they do tend to blow out teams that they're way better than but i could see the patriots keeping this one slow handing it off to ramondre and zeke a hundred times and it being just kind of a messy muddy game and dallas like sneaking out with some like dumb three-point win

that then they feel all excited about but i don't know this game is 31 10 it could be and and dallas could score 20 points in five minutes and the game's over so that's a pass uh all right that's a pass for us i think um all right the chiefs this this is a really strange one we're missing uh niners cardinals but we're not gonna take that game so just you can skip it oh yeah yeah're missing Niners-Cardinals, but we're not going to take that game. So you can skip it. Oh, yeah, yeah. Sorry. The Niners and the Cardinals.

The Niners are laying 14 at home. This play would be the Cardinals, but no, sorry, not doing it. No. All right. So let's talk about your Chiefs. They're laying 9.5 to the Jets. 9.5 is still what we got. 9.5 to the Jets.

It's so funny how these Super Contest lines move, which makes it so much tougher to you know if you're in if you're in the contest right um but we don't we're not in that contest it's nine right now there's nines there's eight there's some eight and a halves that it's not that's not really as important because i don't think we're taking this game yeah the side would be the jets that the pros have been waiting for that nine and a half ten all week when it came you can tell them all the money came in and they pushed it back. Vegas is telling you to take the Jets plus 9.5. I don't want to. Mahomes, in the past, just isn't great as a big road favorite. He's very good when he's a small favorite.'s insane as an underdog he's insane later in the year he's insane against the division that's not any of these like i do feel like this could be this this isn't going to be another blowout but like good lord i cannot bet on zach wilson against no i took the jets under 15 and a half points team total uh Chiefs have allowed 14, 9, and 10 on defense this year. Remember

the Lions game, one of the scores was a pick six for the Lions. This has the hallmark of like the Chiefs just kind of look like crap. They have a real game every year against a bad team. They look terrible and they still win the game by 10

but you don't want to sweat out like are they going to score at the end to get us to the cover? You know what I mean? To me, it's not a good spot to be in if you're taking it. You're laying nine and a half. I'm not doing it. Yep. All right, let's pass it.

How about the Monday night game, which has bounced around a bunch, I think for the sake of simplicity, let's call it a pick. The Giants are playing the Seahawks at MetLife. Right now, we get a point and a half either side. Yeah, you can get a point and a half either side. Do we take the point with the Giants here? No. No?

You don't think so? No, dude. do we take the point with the giants here um no no no dude first of all daniel jones one and twelve straight up in night games five and five and eight against the spread pete carroll the best coach in the last 20 years at night games 34 18 and three against the spread so we're taking seattle then okay all the sharp guys are on the giants i get it but like but last week the sharp guys were on the raiders too and we were on the and we were yeah i know and they were on the fucking broncos like this there's sometimes you just got to look at these two teams and go i'm sorry saquon is still saquon is not is it hasn't been ruled out at this point right but it doesn't seem like he's gonna play was the last update i had uh saquon did practice andrew thomas was limited at practice like this is a pretty compromised team going up against a real offense like a real offense and like a pretty real defense so i just think that there's a clear better team here the giants as we've discussed

jones is not good not good at home there's no home field advantage here to speak of the seattle is the team that always travels the most every year i think it's a pretty good spot for them and i do feel like seattle because they got washed by the rams in week one everyone's still kind of out on them and it feels like there's a little bit of a buying opportunity for me here i would i would be happy to take Seattle hey man you don't have to convince me to bet against Daniel Jones we we actually played way more standalone games than we ever have um it's kind of we played well we played my night football sign of football so far those are games we have in historically not played in the past but um yeah I think the the it's kind of there's I agree with you on the seattle okay let's we

gotta narrow this down we only i only have six maybes i could be incorrect here well so we have okay tennessee tennessee is a yes plus two and a half yeah and seattle minus one are yeses and is commanders plus nine let's take seattle with a pick yeah oh seattle's yeah getting them the contest is a pick so seattle pick tennessee plus two and a half is a contest line two um we're taking washington for sure i think we are right i would i think so but go through the rest i i know we've got miami on the list miami all we really have is seattle tennessee washington baltimore miami and and that's like the only ones we agreed on. I'm up for Baltimore plus three.

I would definitely take that. And then what was the other? I'm trying to think of the other ones where we were even on the same side. That's it. I think Dolphins maybe. other ones where we were even on the same side like that that's it i think dolphins maybe yeah the dolphins one is just like that it feels like i'm just wrong about it i i it's like if i lose that i'll be like yep i was an idiot i should have listened to the sharps and vegas vegas told me better um i will tell you what The other one that you seem to really like was the Steelers.

But again, it's just like, it's not a good, it's square. Like, I know it's square. I just can't get over, like, the backup to Laramie Tunsil going against TJ Watt with a rookie quarterback. Hey, you know what we got to do, buddy. You know what we got to do. You got to. I think, honestly, Jeff, You know what we got to do, buddy. You know what we got to do. Broncos minus three and a half.

I think, honestly, Jeff, I think we have to do it. I think we have to. I will absolutely die when the fucking Broncos win by three. I will die. No, we don't have to do it. We'll never live it down. No, we don't have to do it down no we don't have to do it no no no if we can can we find a three is there there is a three out there i actually there's a three there's a three at points bet uh there's a three yeah there's a three so no no that's against everything we believe in

we just we can't do that why shopping doing the thing you're supposed to do no no no no no no taking the broncos on the road but i do think it's vegas is telling you that they're telling you something about this game right like they're telling you a neutral site they're five points better probably, right? So our decision is Denver minus three. Or what? Or the Dolphins plus three. That's what we're talking about. Yeah. Or you like the Rams a lot too, right?

You said? We don't agree a lot. I just feel like Stafford straight up against a banged up Richardson is fine. You don't like Cowboys minus six and a half. You don't like them at six and a half?

You've got to find one, man. We'll do something here. Let's take the Broncos. That's funny, man. I really thought you were going to be on the Patriots on that one. No, we're not taking this pick because you just want to spite me the rest of my life if I take this pick. It's great content.

It is great content. Oh, geez. Do you want to do Miami? Jeff, no. We have to do it. And here's what's going to happen. I'm going to read the texts that we send each other, which could be me eating shit.

It could be like, Jeff, I should have listened. I should have listened the whole time. They're up 20-3. I will say, the Broncos' offense has not been the problem. Their defense has been ass, but they're not going to get exposed by Chase Claypool and Rashawn Johnson. Do you agree with me, though, that Vegas is you this is the broncos are a much better team yeah but i it's the least bet game of the week like no do you know what like they're not trying

to i think everyone knows the bears suck i wanted it's almost like a glut for punishment with this game like i kind of just like want to have it in there. We're doing it. We're doing it, Jeff. Lock it in. Denver minus three. So Denver minus three. We have four ones I normally take, which is like the great underdog. Baltimore is Harbaugh's 50 games over with 500

against whatever it is against the spread. We have Tennessee with Ray Bull great against the spread as an underdog. Ron Rivera, Pete Carroll, the numbers, and then we have the Broncos minus three. against the spread as an underdog. Ron Rivera, Pete Carroll, the numbers. And then we have the Broncos minus three. I love it. I love it. Let's go.

Let's get in the shit. Broncos minus three. Seahawks pick them. Baltimore plus three. Washington plus nine. Tennessee plus two and a half. We'll put those in the vault on the vaulted app. And we come back. We'll talk those in the vault on the Vaulted app. And we come back.

We'll talk about our favorite predictions in the pool and what we're going to do this week. You guys stay tuned for that. We'll be right back. Guys, I want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game I have been playing this season. PrizePix is a skill-based, real-money daily fantasy sports game. How does it work? You pick two to six players and if they will go more or less than the PrizePix projection,

you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry. So go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. It's so easy to use. I can make my picks in less than 60 seconds. The depositing was simple and straightforward. They even just added Apple Pay, so I was able to get up in minutes and start playing. At PrizePix, you're competing against other people. It's just you versus the projections available instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better. Remember, go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. Are you smarter than your friends?

Prove it with Vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week.

We can answer questions to win cash prizes, and there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week.

So join Vaulted, and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me. Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, and remember to use the code Jeff, that's G-E-O-F-F. So you can see my predictions and play along. All right, Matt, we're back. We have our predictions for the vaulted pool.

So a couple that caught my attention. Well, the Broncos cover three and a half against the Bears is an agree because we just talked about that one for a while. We have the Broncos, the bangles covering two and a half at tennessee that's gonna be disagree obviously because we you know um here's a um a couple other ones i thought were fairly interesting here so um to a tongue of aloha throws from more yards than josh allen i i would agree with that right like the way that these that that miami i might have to play this game a little more throwing,

if they're behind at all. And the Bills have run the ball a little bit more. The Bills are kind of trying to rely more on that a little bit more this season. Would you take two? I would take two over. Small, maybe like a five out of ten. Dude, I'm in on this Dolphins team. I would have picked,

I would have been fine if we ended up taking them plus three. Why don't we take the Dolphins then? Because we had to take, we have to take the Broncos. You have to, you don't understand. Part of this show is to entertain people. We are taking the goddamn Broncos.

The thing with the Dolphins, and I'm scared. I don't, I didn't have the stones to really fight for it. Let's get that on the record i do think that um the way that this offense works it eats chunk plays like they're gonna have a hard time against a really well coached team in the red zone that's where the dolphins are gonna have a tougher time like they're not gonna always get 20 yards of carry so i do think that they are gonna get those those big chunk plays, even in games they lose. So I will always go with Tua Overs.

His stats are going to look unreal at the end of the season. I like that play. A couple more I like here for the vaulted pool. Again, go to the vaulted app, VLTED. Use the promo code Jeff. That's obviously Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. Vikings will score more than 24.5 points against the Panthers. I have an agree for this one.

Mostly because, Matt, the Vikings offense can't be any worse with turnovers. They physically can't do anything worse. They just play a game without turning the ball over. They're going to score a bunch of points eventually. And this is the game I think that eventually happens.

I like it, Jeff. Keep it up. I know we have one or two more really fun ones here. The last one I like. It's at the very bottom here. I'm going to put a 10-pointer on this one. Ready? Okay.

Mahomes will rush for more yards than Zach Wilson will throw passing completions. I love this. I love this one. This is a great one. If you complete nine passes, I just need one scramble from Mahomes against a good Jets pass rush, sign me up. Sign me up, buddy. Love that.

That's a great one. Well, this vaulted pool, I feel like these ones are extra fun this week. And thanks again to them. Vaulted does a great job. This is a great contest. Join the vaulted. Join my pool in the vaulted app. We're getting more people every week.

It's a ton of fun. Again, we're giving you guys free cash prizes. It's free to sign up, free to win. You qualify for the big game pool as well. Matt, I am looking forward to texting you on Sunday when the Broncos and Bears game is the shit show. I actually might not even watch it. I might not watch the game. I just check is the shit show. I actually might even watch it. I might not watch the game.

I just check my phone every hour. You have to. We have to watch it. I will text you a picture of myself watching it, Jeff. Please do that. All right, everyone. Enjoyed the show. By the way, Pac-12 picks.

I like the under in Utah, Oregon State. That game is tonight. It's 44 and a half, at least what I saw last. And then I like USC to score over 40 and a half points. And I like Arizona to cover against Washington. Those are my Pac-12 picks, 10 and 8 so far this season. Rolling right along with those. All right, everyone, we'll be back next week on Monday with a recap.

And we'll talk about minor football. Glad you guys could join us today. Take care, everybody.