Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 10

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

Geoff is solo making his picks this week as he bounces around the league and finds his five favorite plays. After the break, he is joined by a special guest this week as ThePromoGuy jumps on to help him find the most creative, advantageous, and most importantly lucrative ways to bet on the teams he likes this week. And then Geoff shares his favorite plays in this week's VLTED pool.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, November 10th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz's Smart Review. And on Fridays, as we preview the NFL weekend, we are brought to you by the Vaulted app, the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 of cash prizes in my pools, with $5,000 allocated to my final pool of the season, which will be the day of the big game that's spelled Vaulted, V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, which we will do, as we do every Friday, the end of the show. Stay tuned. We'll have my five predictions for this do, as we do every Friday, the end of the show. Stay tuned. We'll have my five predictions for this week, as we do each and every week.

And plus my pool. You have to join the app. Find me, Jeff. Jeff with a G. G-O-F-F. Vaulted out. V-L-T-E-D. And you can join the pool.

Cash prizes. Free to enter. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which has been up and down.'ve been good some weeks bad some weeks uh five hundred dollar prize pool for the three uh top winners first place gets uh gets uh four four hundred and 75 and 25 we have a little fun for you guys this week we're going to mix it up with some adjusted lines for this week to kind of give you guys an idea of where you think a team may or may not win as we typically do on Fridays we will pick we will go through excuse me

all the NFL games for the week and we'll pick our five favorite Matt is not here this week we're gonna have a special guest joining us after the break so stay tuned for that he's been on before the promo guy TPG will join us to review our picks that we can give you guys some expected value and ways to wager on the games that i'm handing out also games he likes as well and we've got another good week we were three and two last week that's now 29 13 and three for the season so we're kicking ass i have text matt we have a a plan for this week, and we will give you guys those five wagers. Then we'll do some vaulted, and we'll do some TPG as well. So good show for you guys today.

Let's start with the action of the week. The first game of the week is a game that we are not going to touch. Matt and I even discussed this game. It's Colts and Patriots. It's in Germany. Sorry for the fine people in Germany that have to deal with this game. After last weekend, where Chiefs-Dolphins was last weekend, it was a great contest.

This one I don't expect to be quite the same. The Patriots right now are favored by, I believe, a point and a half, but that number keeps moving. It will move throughout the week. Those games tend to have a lot of money on them, and the line tend to move a little bit. I don't really see at all um a a play in this i mean you have mac jones who we've talked about our show is just you can't wager on him um and the colts with the backup quarterback i i you just

to me you stay away it's just complete stay away and we're going to do that and we'll get you guys the right line at the exact moment right now. The line right now for that game is, in fact, two. Oh, there's ones and twos. You can get anywhere you want. So whatever direction you want to go, that's all for you. The next game up will be the first one that we do pick. Baltimore here and Cleveland.

The line right now is six. I will take Baltimore minus the six. If you look at this game, I understand this line might feel big, and it kind of did originally for me at first and for Matt as well. But I think we have a really good situation, a situation we've got Baltimore here. Baltimore is good. We've seen them play. Their TV away feels like it's a little bit greater

than the team actually is at the moment. But this is more a play on the Browns, who under Kevin Stefanski have not been good in division. Deshaun Watson, not playing terribly well. I believe I saw his passing number was like 190 yards for the week. It's a low number for Deshaun Watson, a guy you pay all this money to, supposed to be a franchise quarterback. The Browns are without two of their offensive tackles.

It just feels like a game the Browns are not going to play well against the Ravens for the reasons stated above, and the Ravens are super hot right now. I like being on the Ravens at six. You can find some maybe six and a half somewhere if you want to take the other side. I'm curious if this moves at some point during the week, but there's a six right now.

I'll take the six for the Ravens. Houston, Cincinnati, that number is now at six, six and a half. That number opened at seven. Houston getting seven points. This one's interesting. We passed on this one. I think Matt and I were on two different sides here. The Bengals are going to be without T. Higgins. Jamar Chase is going to play, so the offense should be whole. The Bengals look like the hottest team in the NFL. The Texans just won last weekend coming from behind. But also, remember, two weeks ago they lost to the Panthers. So there's some ups and downs there with the rookie quarterback.

And I think for us, we're on either side. I think I like the Texans here at seven. It's now at six. Maybe the Bengals are on the side here. So we stayed away. I do think the Bengals have the Bills next week. Excuse me, not the Bills, the Ravens next week. It's Thursday night football.

So it could be a look-ahead spot for them. I just don't think so. I don't think it's a look-ahead spot for them. And I think it could be this game by a lot. We're going to stay away. We have better plays on the board. Steelers, Packers next. Steelers are favored by, at the moment,

they are favored by 3, 3.5. There's 3, 3.5. I think you would play Green Bay here plus the 3.5 if you're playing this game. I just would advise you guys, Green Bay cannot score a lot of points. They haven't looked terribly good. And the Steelers are 5-3 playing this game, I just would advise you guys, Green Bay cannot score a lot of points. They haven't looked terribly good.

And the Steelers are 5-3 despite not outgaining a single opponent this season. If you flip all the results in the one-score games, they would be 0-8 this season. But they're not good as a favorite. It's not what Tomlin, over the life of his career, has been great at in Pittsburgh. And so for that reason, I'm not backing the Packers. I think the Packers are on the Packers. Patriots and Broncos, I think, are on our no-bet list.

We'll continue that process. We're not going to bet on them. We're just not going to. The next game up here is going to be the Vikings and Saints. We are going to take the Vikings plus the three points here at home against the Saints. Vikings plus the three points here at home against the Saints. This is a play on the, you know, I think the positiveness of the Vikings team right now, right?

They are still battling, even without Cousins. We saw last weekend the ability to fight back with Dobbs. There's just a play on that, but also just a play on Derek Carr being a favorite. Like, what are we doing? Derek Carr is a favorite on the road. road is something that I think Matt and I just always want to fade. With a Vikings team that is playing – look, guys, Dobbs,

we talked about it last week. What he did is pretty impressive. And the public being on a Saints team that, again, is favored with Derek Carr on the road, just a big L. I'm just not – I don't know how that's possible. The Saints this year are not as explosive an offense than they were last year. Defensively, still pretty good. I think the point due here,

Saints opens the underdog and now the favorite. Those teams are 48 and 84 against the spreads since 2019. So when you go from an underdog to a favorite, it's typically the line movement that isn't great. Derek Carr, 8, 25 and 2 gets a spread on the favorite by three points or more, including one, 13 and one in the last 15 games in this spot. Like, come on. We're not doing this.

We're absolutely not doing this. We'll take Minnesota plus three and be totally fine with it in this spot. Next up on the list is 49ers at Jacksonville. Jacksonville is getting three points, and we're on Jacksonville here. It's my best bet I had on the Bear Bets podcast as well. I'm kind of a little bit surprised by this line. It actually might end up moving to three and a half, which is, wow. I just didn't think we, oh, okay.

Well, we'll take the three at the moment. Unless I can find a three and a half somewhere. It looks like the line's on the move here. Both teams off a buy. So if you want to say the Niners off a buy, three straight losses, feeling good about themselves after dropping three, and they're feeling good about making a comeback in this game and sort of performing better the last couple weeks.

The only thing I would caution you guys is that the public thinks the exact same thing. The public's all over the Niners. But Jacksonville is really good. I keep continuing this point. I think we forget about jacksonville they're six and two right now they have lost five games i think in their last 20 and three have been in kansas city they're not playing kansas this weekend and jacksonville is a team that i think we forget about because they're stuck in the south and in the south we think about we think about uh college

football right now jacksonville is sixth in DVOA. They're 13th on offense and third on defense. It's a legit football team, guys. It's a really good football team. And they're getting three points. They're off a bye, too. Doug Peterson is the head coach. Their head coach has been good. Off a bye. So we're rolling with Jacksonville

plus three. So now we have the Ravens minus six. We have the Vikings plus three. Jacksonville plus three. Bucks and Texans, we Ravens minus six. We have the Vikings plus three, Jacksonville plus three bucks and Texans. We'll just, we'll pass that one away. We're just not touching that game at all. Cardinals Falcons.

Kyler Murray is back this weekend for the Cardinals. I think you could make a play on, on the Cardinals here. The Falcons can be, or just always a stay away, especially with Arthur Smith as a head coach who does no idea what he's doing at any time. You can look at him and where the way he talks about using Bajon Robinson and the way he uses weapons, just it's a no play for us.

I think maybe Arizona it's tough because Murray hasn't played in a year. Right. And so you're looking at how good will he play being back for the first week? Not, not quite sure. Right. So I think it's a stay away for us. Next up on our list, a lion's chargers. This is what I've been kind of going back and forth on. We're not playing it. We're a stay away for us. Next up on our list, Lions Chargers.

This is one I've been kind of going back and forth on. We're not playing it. We're not playing it for us. But I will give you my opinion on this game is kind of simple here. I like the Lions big in the first half. They're off a bye. And the Chargers are on a short week, having just played in New York on Monday. So they're flying back late Monday.

Short week to prepare. The Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this game. I think the Lions come out roaring in this game. Roaring. Like, just like it's 14-0, 14-3, almost immediately. But the Chargers, obviously, with their ability with Herbert to pass the ball, can kind of get them back in this game. Lions defense, okay, not great.

Right? Okay, not great. But I like Lions' first half might be my favorite wager of the weekend, just the way that I think they're going to come out. There's a team who is just off a bye. They have a good coaching staff. All right, the next game, we are going to play this game, guys. It's Jets.

It's Giants. Cowboys. We're, the next game, we are going to play this game, guys. It's Jets, it's Giants, Cowboys. We're taking the Cowboys minus 17. We have a leeway with our record this year to take a swing here for the Cowboys. The total is 38 and a half. They're telling this game is going to be like 31 to 7, which I think is about right. DeVito, the Giants quarterback, is just not good. The Giants are without other football players as well.

And the Cowboys this season are, and really under Dak Prescott, have been just extreme frontrunners the last couple of years. So, for example, they beat the Giants 40-0 after being up early. They beat the Jets 30-10 after being up in that game. It ended up being 18-10 at one point. Just blew them out the second half. The Patriots, they beat 38-13. They dominated the Patriots.

They beat the Rams 43-22 weeks ago. The games they lost, Niners, Eagles, Cardinals, which seems to be a fluke of the season, and they lost the Eagles. The Giants stink. They're not going to score any points in this game. Once the Cowboys get up 10, 14, 17,

guess what happens? They're able to rush the passer. They're able to use their defense to the full extent of what they want to be on defense, which is rush the passer and get after the quarterback and force turnover. So I'll take the 17, man.

I'm fine with it. It's a big number. I get it. But I'm totally fine laying in this spot. Again, we have a little cushion because of our record so far this year. Seattle and the Commanders, I have nothing on this. My lean would be Commanders because I think Seattle has fallen off a little bit. Let's go back a month ago.

They're in Cincinnati, and the red zone offense was atrocious. Okay? Then they play the Cardinals and win by 10, barely cover. Then the Browns come to town with P.J. Walker and basically screen the Seahawks to death on offense, and the Seahawks had to come back in that game and win, which is pretty impressive they were able to come back, but I don't feel great about regretting them.

That ended up being round number four. Last weekend they lose 37-3 to the Ravens. I just don't know if they're good. You know, they're, what are they, 16th in DVOA. The commanders are feisty with Sam Howell, but they're not great on defense, right? Like it's hard to take a road team getting all the points

that lost the two best pass rushers. Montez Sweat played really well last night for, I think he had over 10 pressures for the Cowboys, for the Bears, the highest pressure total in years. So we're staying that one out. The fifth game for us is going to be Sunday Night Football.

We're absolutely fading the Raiders. We're taking the Jets here at, looks like a pick-em. So Jets just straight up pick-em, okay, to basically win this game. Matt texted me. We were texting this week. It's fun to text new dad, Matt. He should be back next week, I think. He's back next week.

He said, I have to read him this line for the Jets pick tomorrow. He's absolutely right. This is the thought process. Ready? Anytime you can bet against a team that smoked victory cigars after beating Tommy DeVito, you have to do it. So, I'm with a straight fade on the Raiders, who in

week two with Antonio Pierce, who had coached before, not just our situation. I'm happy they celebrated. They needed to get that off their chest. But A, no call against the Jets defense. That's not going to go well. I think the Jets can move the ball enough against the Raiders defense to win this game.

So give me the Jets here. Those are our five picks. We're not Monday Night Football, Denver, and Buffalo. No thoughts on that one. So we have Baltimore minus the six. We have Jacksonville plus three. Minnesota plus three. The Giants, excuse me, the Cowboys laying 17.

And the Jets at a pick-em. It's a good card, guys. Some of these are ugly. It has to be. It has to be ugly to win in this. All right. Coming up next, we're going to talk to the promo guy we're going to do the vaulted picks we're going to have you guys ready for the best opportunity

to wager this weekend to get you to the pool for vaulted so you guys can earn some some free money we'll be back in just a second we'll do all that for you guys are you smarter than your friends prove it with vaulted by predicting challenging and being them with your sports knowledge vaulted spelled vltd is a place where you can store your sports predictions participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the vaulted challenge feature i will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes,

and there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Vaulted and you can like, dislike, comment,

interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me. Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, and remember to use the code Jeff. That's G-E-O-F-F. So you can see my predictions and play along.

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and use code g s s y for a first deposit match up to 100 it's so easy to use i can make my picks in less than 60 seconds the depositing was simple and straightforward they even just added apple pay so i was able to get up in minutes and start playing at prize picks you're competing against other people it's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players including pros and sharks so follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better remember go to prize picks and use code g ssy for first deposit match up to 100 all right we're back with our first return guest we have a first return guest i love it the promo guy is joining us right now who gets you set for the best wages you can find on the market, finds you some expected value in a way that a lot of people cannot do that.

TPG, welcome back. Hey, thanks for having me. I didn't know I was the first repeat guest. That's pretty cool. Yeah, I think you're the first one. My brother I don't think has been on twice. I think he'd be the only one who's maybe been a repeat guest. So I'm glad to have you on. You just heard the wagers that we have for this weekend, plus the ones obviously

that you like. How do we find the best value in some of these wagers across sportsbooks? Yeah, so there are promos and boosts really across all the major sports books throughout the weekend. And this is kind of the best time of year for all of it. So it's not just football, but basketball and hockey. You're using some soccer boosts. But I was listening to your picks and wanted to help people kind of optimize them, use the promotions and boosts to take your already fantastic record and literally boost it. So I've got a few that I mixed and matched up.

First one was the Jaguars. I think you said that was your best bet of the weekend. Yeah. And you like the Vikings. Yes. And Caesars has a 50% profit boost for a plus 400 parlay. Those two get you a plus 459. But with the boost, you get plus 689.

So Caesars has the best two prices in the market for each of those bets. And we're getting plus 689 after the boost for a 29% expected value. What do you think about that one? If you parlay the the the money lines together just or just the plus three plus three the money line together yeah you get plus 689 if you money line parlay wow that's really good geez yeah i mean yeah i mean i think jacksonville does win the game minnesota is a little bit of a, you know, maybe wager on that. But at the plus 600, this is why I wish I lived in a state that you could get these boosts.

You know, I live in North Carolina. We don't have legal sports wagering for a bit. But I know when we get legal sports wagering, I can start doing some of this. Because it would be like, yeah, my offshore has 460. To get almost nearly 700 on this is awesome. Yeah, no, exactly. And obviously with all of these, you know, you make money over time with the expected value, but it is pretty likely that one of the Jags or Vikings, if not both, lose the game.

And, you know, it's important to remember that. Like it's never going to feel great when you put in a plus 459 or plus 689 parlay, but a ton of value there, and it's nice to match it with picks that you like. So the next one I did is a little bit more complicated. You said you like the Ravens. Yes. I actually appreciated what you were saying about the offensive line being banged up and kind of I took from what you were saying about, you know, the offensive line being banged up.

And kind of I took from what you were saying that the Browns offense will struggle. Well, FanDuel has a 30 percent SGP boost. And so what I did is I took Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt under rushing yards parlay SGP. That gets you to plus 258 for the boost. yards parlay SGP that gets you to plus 258 before the boost uh the cool part about that SGP and why I chose it was DraftKings is plus 214 for under for the same under rushing yards except for they have Jerome Ford one rushing yard higher or lower and Kareem Hunt four rushing yards lower so instead of 42 and a half and 27 and a half on fan duel plus 258 draft kings would give you and caesars is similar uh plus 214 for 41 and a half and 23 and a half

rushing yards under parlay and then that's the same game parlay correct yes that's the same game parlay on fan duel so that's what the 30 is for. So we start with the plus 258. Like I said, those are pretty favorable odds to begin with. It matches up with your Ravens pick and the Browns offense struggling. There's a high correlation between rushing yards, unders, and the opposing team winning, obviously, for game script and other reasons. And then I parlayed it with Jets' money line, which was minus 104 on FanDuel to get us above 400 that we need in order

to boost it. So we get to plus 781 for under Jerome Ford, 42 and a half rushing yards, parlayed with Kareem Hunt under 27 and a half rushing yards and Jets money line. That is plus 781. DraftKings is plus 502. Wow. line that is plus 781 draft kings is plus 502 wow using using over rushing yard over unders i'm gonna try to i'm gonna try to build that one i don't know if my my offshore will let me do that it's kind of a fun one i like that one because i don't think the browns are going to get a lot rushing yards in this game yeah yeah uh this is one i'll probably actually end up tweeting out i

don't know if i'll pair it with Jets Moneyline. I might look for a more strictly EV play, but that SGP is really favorable to other books. And like I said, you get the higher rushing yard totals, which especially for Kareem Hunt at 27.5 versus 23.5 is really impactful. Yeah. Hopefully let me do this. This is the fun.

Todd, I won't let me do it, of course. Talk about sort of the mindset of some of these parlays because you're right about, you know, just it's sometimes you have to sort of like understand that the odds are long on these and you're not going to hit as many of these as you might hit just straight sides or totals yeah and it can definitely be frustrating especially if you do it in the way that we're sort of suggesting like jeff you have your five six best plays of the week and if you do it this way you could go four and two and still end up losing most of these parlays right uh so it can definitely be frustrating but if you sort of just trust the process and like you you have high, then it works in your favor over time. And you can look at my notepads a lot like I do like these note summaries every day. And oftentimes is, you know, two for eight made forty dollars because, you know, you're just you're getting a couple to hit that kind of make up for the rest. And the reason why a lot of the sportsbooks make you do these parlay bets

is because they want to encourage betting on non-boosted parlays. But we can sort of use it to our advantage to find favorable odds and get higher payouts. What's your process like on maybe Sunday night or Monday morning to start to get the process going to get these sort of in your mind about what you might do for the week? Yeah, so I'm kind of constantly looking at odds in general to kind of look for ones that are favorable on a given book. And then from there, I try and match up the promos. Like I have basically an inbox where people in my Discord

put any promo that they have. Some of them are targeted state-specific. Some of them are widely available. And then I'm just like, oh, that's a really great line for Mikkel Bridges over rebounds on FanDuel. Oh, they have a 30% SGP on it tonight. Let me see if I can pair it with something and get a good play. That's kind of how most of my stuff looks. As far as football

weekends are concerned, a lot of the stuff starts coming out, like a lot of the lines come out on Wednesdays and Thursdays. It really is a Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday process of just knocking out the college ones, knocking out the NFL ones. And I try and focus on if I find something really good early in the week, I'll post it. But otherwise, we don't have to use our boost up until, you know, 1pm on Sunday. So sometimes, you know, I like to keep the optionality open of, hey, I haven't found anything that's really good enough. I'm just going to wait. So you mentioned college football, which we do a good amount of not so much in this show, but other shows I do.

It's hard to find props for college football. I know that they kind of come out later in the week. How do you wait till like Friday to do some of of these i wish they came out like nfl did much earlier in the week it's kind of a bummer sometimes yeah there's not much i really do new york doesn't have college football player props which is a bummer is a bummer uh so there's not much that i can really do in that way also even if i did have them't, that it wouldn't really be that efficient or productive to be putting on a bunch of player parlays. But for the NFL,

you definitely get them kind of like Wednesday, Thursday. They're starting to get them. Actually, some of them don't really come till Friday. But for the college football boost, like we have a Michigan-Penn State one, which I definitely want to hear

your opinions on that game. There's a FanDuel college football parlay one. It's a very similar process with every sport of just finding favorable lines. And, you know, if the lines were inefficient, smart people like you would bet into them and fix it basically, right? So that's sort of the reason. Any other NFL plays you like for the week? There's a bunch. I don't know if we have a ton of time to go through all of them.

I would say that the biggest thing I want to hear from you is what do you like in Michigan Penn State? Because I got a 50% drafting boost. Oh, really? Okay. So here's the way I feel about this game is that this is the first game. It's crazy. Week 13, the Michigan has played a team that has a pulse, right?

Let me pull up the numbers just to make sure I have this right. So I like using the SP plus for just efficiency numbers, right? The best team they played all season was 51st overall in Minnesota. That's the best they played. Penn State is fifth. So this is like by far the best team they played this season. They're on the road in a hostile environment it's not a night game won't be a whiteout but it's a big new kickoff it's at noon

it's a big deal i think that this is a slow start for michigan for the reasons i mentioned penn state is a real football team with a real dfs now offensively penn state cannot really score the ball they excuse me they really score the ball. They can score the ball, but they do it kind of this dink and duck offense, this pick-up ball offense, right? You need explosive plays, in my opinion, to be able to beat Michigan. Like, you just need them, right? Like, you can't go against a good defense and be 100 and, what is it, in a big play rate, in an explosive play rate, like in the hundreds.

Like, you just can't beat that team. However, I like Penn State first half. I think this game could be like 10-10 the first half. Remember last year it was 16-14 Penn State at halftime, and the final score was like 35-16 for Michigan. I think this is a game where you have – That first half wasn't as pretty as the score for Penn State, if I remember right.

No. To me, like a first-half Penn State wager, I'm trying to find the number for first half. Yeah. I was just looking at this, actually. They're plus 2.5, plus 100, or money line first half, plus 140. Okay, so I have a general rule that I will always take points with dogs. Like, I'd rather take the 2 and a half than then then they take the money line if i'm waiting wager like this

right if it's the other way around if michigan was favored by two and a half i would probably lay the juice on the first half money line wager for michigan if i like if the number was basically between zero and three but i i almost will never i might do both wagers like take them plus the points and put a small sprinkle on the money line but i don't really ever forego taking points with underdog i don't know why i guess i mean obviously the juice is different right minus 110 versus getting a plus number but i almost always take the points rather than the money line okay Okay. Well, there's an easy one then. Penn State plus two and a half, plus 150 on DraftKings after the boost. It's obviously a phenomenal line.

You know, it's plus 100 minus 120 is the two-way. So, you know, that one might be a little bit more approachable for the audience where you aren't dealing with plus 89s and you can deal with more of a straight plus 100 to plus 150 wager still really high ev probably around 20 uh so there you go like you know that's that's utilizing the boost to yeah do you ever do do you ever do a a first half and then a full game like different wager like i would go so i bet games where i go first half one way and full game the other way like taking penn state first half plus two and a half and michigan full game minus four and a half yeah so i love looking at the correlation of things um so you know i'm always

looking at kind of sgp stuff and so many of the promo sgp based generally the books don't give you kind of like a high enough negative correlation payout to do that sort of thing. And I'm probably not as deep in the weeds. I'm just like, you know, when I, when I gamble non EV wise, it's, it's generally more for fun. So I probably wouldn't do something like that. Like I would just take, you know, like I kind of liked the, we talked about the show, like the preseason. I liked Penn state wins alabama wins like kind of simpler stuff i took the under in

this game uh just because yeah that's that's about right i mean i think the game is like like fun stuff 28 10 right like something like that 28 13 like it's going to be about around there i i think that michigan's offense will struggle a lot more than they did last year uh to run the ball and I think that Manny Diaz has that Penn State defense really solid this year um and then like you said Penn State's offense isn't exactly the most explosive so 45 and a half is like a really high number in my head to to get to for each you know you're saying that one of these offenses is going to have to get close to 30 realistically for that number to hit yeah um but with alabama over i'm sure you thought of that south florida game they narrowly

won after beating texas like there's no way this is getting over you're looking you're looking good with alabama over right now yeah you, most of the picks didn't do well. Luckily, the ones I said on this show were decent. But, yeah, that South Florida first half was so brutal, especially as someone who had Alabama that game for the first half to be the highest scoring half in the game. Yeah, that's a good one. That I like to do, but it was a really good line,

at least according to where I thought it should be. Just because generally like blowouts are going to be higher scoring halves in the first half and the odds were close to like minus one 10. So watching that first half was actually the most painful thing I've experienced as a football better this year, especially having Alabama to make the playoff Alabama over. But we, we definitely have survived they just have me and uh one more like team with the polls i took um i so by the way do you do you wager on on um like win total in the season at all or just do preseason stuff yeah i i do like doing those for

sure i took a last before they played oregon state last weekend i took colorado um under five and a half but i laid about minus 200 so i laid two to one under five and a half that number was that's that's what five and a half you got yeah i think i think it was on fan duel and it was you know they're not going to win they basically have to win they have three games left they have to beat arizona washington state utah they have to win two of those three games to start for my wager and not hit well you they had the game last week too but yeah but they're underdogs in all of them and decent sized underdogs. By far, yes.

Yeah, so I'm actually pretty frustrated. I took them after, I don't remember if it was week two. It was probably week one. Over four and a half wins at like minus 110. Oh, no. And basically said they were three and a half before the year they were plus a thousand to win the game so they they picked up 0.9 wins and you have to say a team of i don't know what the number is 80 transfers like you can't stick to your preseason look they just won a game that

they weren't supposed to that should be worth at least another 0.1 wins so i thought the four and a half minus 110 was a great number, and it turned out to be. It moved a lot. Yeah, I'm trying to find my – it won't let me – Yeah, now it's basically a coin flip, I would think, that 4.5 number. Maybe it's still a little bit favorite just because they have three games,

but they're going to have to win a game that they're at least plus 300. I'm trying to find – I can't believe I'm going to lose that bet. I might lose that bet, especially when they were up 29-0 on Stanford. Yeah, it won't let me look at my – well, here's a wager. Yeah, it's like – yeah, I got minus like 250 on it, I think, two weeks last week, whenever it was. So, I don't know.

I'm fine with it. I like doing in-season win totals too. I hope they land on five. Yeah, that would be great for both of us right we both get that it's one more win one more win you're in um anything else you like this weekend 30 i did do i did do if you if you want to hear i did do it's a little bit more complicated and nick kind of warned me not to but now i'm going to do it because you asked i did do one more parlay boost for you okay great okay draft things Okay. DraftKings, I got Ravens.

It's a 50% boost on a four-leg parlay. We got Ravens, first half, minus 225. Raiders, under 21.5 points, minus 205. And these are all favorable to other books. That's why I picked them. Jaguars, plus 3.5, minus 128. And Cowboys, over 19 and a half points minus 500 i figure if they're going to cover 17 and a half they probably need to get 20 points that's plus 359 but boosted

it is plus 539 okay say it again so ravens first half money line yes right. Ravens first half. Okay. Money line, right? Raiders 121 and a half. Okay. I'm going to try to build this. Yeah. Let's see it. Jags plus three and a half. How about I don't know if I can adjust the –

Oh, I can do adjusted line. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Jags plus three and a half, you said? Yeah. Okay. And then Cowboys.5, you said? Yeah. Okay. And then Cowboys over 19.5 points. Okay.

I like it. I like it. I like it. And that gets us to plus 539. I'm going to try to build this right now. This is the problem with just the offshore thing. It just stinks sometimes trying to find these numbers. I can't wait to do it.

January, man. We get it in January. Yeah, right. Get it in January numbers i can't wait to do i'm i'm holding january man we get it in january get it in january i can't wait that's great and you guys will have the sign up bonuses and oh it's gonna be fantastic plus points scored in the game anytime anytime a new state gets uh a book it's it's fantastic for the state they try and you know obviously incentivize you to the book but it's also it's also usually great for all of us because you know it's it's a it's a marketing war right and they want to show that oh this isn't just a north carolina thing like look at this awesome lakers boost that they have tonight or jets boost that they have tonight or Jets boost that they have tonight. So it tends to be good for everyone. And anytime the new state jumps in.

Dude, I'm, I'm, I'm with you. Is this, is this my offshore not going to have, not going to give me point totals this, this on,

on Friday. I'm about to find this. I'm about to find it, but I appreciate you joining me as usual. We always learn something. We've got some, some fun wages for the weekend. Good luck to you. Good luck to everyone else.

Enjoyed having you on, buddy. Thank you for coming. Thank you so much, Jeff. Appreciate it. The promo guy giving us some good. I can't, for the life of me, I can't find a Raiders team total here. I don't know what's happening. I'm going to make this wager, though.

It's going to be done this week. I've written it down. It's going to happen. What's going to've written it down. It's going to happen. What's going to happen now though. We're going to talk about vaulted. We love having vault as a partner. V L T E D. Go to the app.

Sign up for my pool. G O F F. We're giving away prizes each and every week. If you beat me, you enter the $ thousand dollar final pool the big game no entry fees four hundred dollars is the winner 75 to second place 25 to third place producer nick has has won one week he has gotten the money vaulted vlted i'll also put my predictions there for college football in the nfl you can like them, dislike them, interact with me.

Come find me on the app. So this week what we did for you guys, we adjusted some totals for you guys. So we didn't go prop heavy. So, for example, 49ers cover the 6.5 against Jacksonville. I'm going to disagree. It allows us to have some more fun with winning and losing here, guys, and being able to win some of these wagers. And again, it's 10 to 1 in your confidence level.

I'm putting a 10 on 49ers covering 6.5 and a disagree because I think Jacksonville actually wins that game. I'll take the 6.5 points here. We have the Ravens covering 6.5 also in here, but we also have the ravens covering six and a half also in here but we also have the ravens covering three and a half that's good for us i'll take them at six but also agree with a 10 pointer here to be able to take the ravens to cover the three and a half there's also an option to cover nine and a half i i kind of sort of like that option that's a possibility here um we could do like a little bit of uh of like a uh a middle here so we could take like

for example let me try to find a middle for you guys so we could take the uh the saints will cover six and a half against the vikings we could disagree on that one we could also no we can't do that because that was gonna end up being we're gonna we're gonna we're gonna disregard ourselves we could do this one here chargers cover excuse me lines will cover six and a half against the chargers disagree on that so the chargers are going to cover six and a half but also the lines will cover the three and a half against the chargers agree with that one that puts us with the middle right so we don't win this game to end between lines win by four or five points and we win both we win both of these.

So I will also take Cowboys to cover 19 and a half against the Giants. Agree. The Cowboys are going to kick ass. We know that already. They're going to kick ass. And those are the adjusted lines for the pool this week. So you have the capability to go in there and agree or disagree with me, but also agree or disagree with the pool and 10-point confidence.

Again, the winner gets a cash prize. Please join us on the Vaulted out VLTED, a promo code, not promo code, but come find me, Jeff, G-E-O-F-F. And we have a special for you guys this week.

We normally do price picks on Monday. We're going to do price picks for today. Go to price picks, promo code G-S-S-Y, $100 match deposit to allow yourself the opportunity to play along for this NFL weekend. I made myself a square, two to four, excuse me, two to six entry square to win up to 25 times your money. It's a fantastic way, different way to play around with the action for the weekend.

So here we go. You guys ready? I like doing three, okay? Tommy DeVito, the Giants quarterback for the weekend. 157.5 passing yards. We're going less. It's not throwing. Guys, these quarterback numbers, they seem low.

They're low for a reason because the quarterbacks stink. Take the under. You make a lot of money doing this. They're low for a reason, because the quarterbacks stink. Take the under. You make a lot of money doing this. We're going to make money here doing this. Aiden O'Connell, starting for the Raiders, 206 pass yards. Less. Going less against the Jets defense. Not going to happen.

TJ Watt, sack total against Green Bay. Green Bay's offensive line at times a little shaky. Watt's going to heartbeat that defense. We're going more than.75 sacks. So we need a full sack or two half sacks or more than that. We win. So again, Tommy DeVito, less than 157.5 passing yards. A.N. O'Connell, less than 206.5 passing yards.

And T.J. Watt, more than three-fourths of a sack. That's the prize picks for this weekend. Hope you guys enjoyed the show. If you're still around, please send us a review. We'll be back on Monday with a recap. And we're back next week with Matt on Friday to go over all of our ideas for the NFL Sunday. Take care, guys.

Enjoy the weekend of football.