Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 11

Episode Date: November 18, 2023

Geoff is rejoined by new father Matt to discuss every game of the week. They bounce around and eventually settle on their five favorite games including choosing a side in the Super Bowl rematch on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, It's Thursday, November 16th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarty. We're live on Twitter. We're on your favorite podcast platform of choice. We're also on YouTube, and we're brought to you by the Vaulted app, the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 in cash prizes in my pools with $5,000 allocated to my final pool of the season, which will be the day of the big game.

That's Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, which we will do at the end of the show. And you can participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees and prove you are smarter than your friends and myself by using the Vaulted challenge feature. As you guys know by now, I have my own pool and vaulted each week you answer questions 20 of them to win prizes free to enter cash prizes 500 per week the winner gets 400 second place gets 75 third place

gets 25 and if you beat me in the pool each week you enter yourself into the big game pool at the end of the season that's vaulted vlted go find my pool that's jeff with a g goff and have a lot of fun at the end of the show we'll go over our vaulted pool questions for this week as we do every thursday or friday of the nfl season we talk about our favorite our favorite our favorite five wagers for the week. Guys, Matt Ford is back. He is newly with child, and I'm glad to have him back. He missed two weeks, but he's here. Matt, how's the father life, man? How are we doing with it?

Two weeks in about now. Yeah, two weeks in three days. I missed you. thanks for holding down the fort without me um life's good life's very different life's a lot more tired uh life's got a lot more styles of poop in it than i'm used to but it's all good man it's good i it's yeah it's great it's uh it's it's nice to join you and as a dad uh one of the cool things i think is there's this like as soon as you become a parent like all the parents that you know in your life sort of like converge around you and they're just sort of like yep you're in you're

in it now like you're part of this and i've heard from people i haven't heard from in so long and from a few people on the show so those folks and you too of course you've me at like weird hours and i'm awake you're like hey you're like you're answering the text at like three in the morning and that's yeah i'm like it's funny i actually did my prep for this last night mostly from the hours of like two to four a.m so if it all sounds a little half remembered that's probably why um but yeah, it's great to be back. Sorry, that was my answer. I know.

I'm glad you're back. Yeah, the different colors of poop and different consistency, they do not tell you about in any of the books or any of the prep, but you'll learn it. It's different colors and different flavors and different textures for weeks and weeks and weeks, buddy. So enjoy the joys of the diapering. We went two and three last week. It was our first losing week in months.

We're 31-16-3. So we're still doing very well this year. I'm glad to have you back. So for those who forgot how we do this, we will go over every game. I believe most teams are playing this weekend. So a lot of games to go over. And we'll choose our five favorite wagers of the week.

And we'll put them in the vaulted app. So you can see them as well. And then we'll do vaulted at the end and we'll get out of here. So we're Thursday night football is on right now. We do not record typically during Thursday night football. So we'll not have a reaction for you. Unless something weird happens in the game right now, it's the middle of second quarter.

By the time we're done, halftime will probably be over. So it's Ravens and Bengals. If the Ravens win, you feel good about them obviously winning the AFC North. If the Bengals win, they're still alive and north, especially with the Sean Watson injury to the Browns. So we'll talk about the Browns. And we can even maybe even start with that game if you want to.

But where would you like to start with the 1 o'clock games? Well, sure. Why don't we start there? So the, the Browns let's check the latest line here. The Browns were a sort of substantial favorite over the Steelers, which was going to take away like most for at least one of these one of these games here, given our track record with Mike Tomlin, but Sean Watson out for the year. And now this line is, wow, the Browns are still favored by one.

Interesting. I'm actually seeing a Steelers plus two somewhere. That's a little fishy to me. What do you think of that? Well, it went from, like, Cleveland favored by four all the way to two back to one now. Like, it just has been flipping back and forth. I feel like when the Browns were getting any sort of points,

Sharps hammered the Browns in this situation. I mean, Deshaun Watts is not worth six points, which is the way the line went. Steelers, so it's basically a pick-em, right? Browns by one. This number will be bad around, in my opinion, before kickoff. I don't know, man. The Steelers have won every game this year.

I played every game this year. I played every game this year. Nine of them have been out gained in every one of them, and they're 6-3. Like, a little bit of me says just take the Browns. Better defense at home. But Dorian Thompson-Robinson's playing. It's not P.J. Walker. So, like, I think it's just a stay away unless we have nothing else to go to.

But I would just tuck it away in our back pocket maybe and just sort of stay away from it does this feel like the mike tomlin spot that's really what we're asking ourselves does this feel like he goes hey guys like we're uh underdogs despite having the better record being the better defense is what he'd say and we're playing a rookie quarterback who got absolutely murdered in his first start and were underdogs to the browns like i there is part of me that thinks like you know this is all the thing kevin safanski terrible on the afc north right like every year we talk about his record uh he's 7 15 7 and 15 against the spread in the afc north and he's 21-16-1 against non-AFC North teams so he generally does better outside the division

Mike Tomlin is an underdog but it's like you know this Mike Tomlin is an underdog thing it seems to work every single week like Pittsburgh just seems to cover every single week despite themselves so it does feel like it's going to fall apart at some point but we're also getting a chance to bet against this Thompson, whatever this guy's name is, Thompson, Robinson, whatever. I watched him play five years in UCLA.

I watched him play five years in UCLA. The thing about it, Matt, is the Steelers have to lose a game at some point the way they're playing, right? And it's just the game that they lose when everyone is basically saying, oh, Watson's out, Steelers are going to win this game easily, and they just don't do that because they're the Steelers in the spot. That's my concern about this game. It's alarming.

I don't like this game. Okay. I liked it at plus four with Watson, weirdly weirdly and now it just feels a little fishy to me like it's getting 81 of the money i just don't know who's backing the browns and a backup quarterback here but the line has hasn't switched to the steelers as a favorite so it's it's fishy i think we could do worse than picking it but um this there's something that just doesn't feel right about it to me i'm with you i'm. I'm okay with just staying away from it. I mean, should we take a minute with Deshaun Watson here?

I mean, this is one of the weirdest stories. I mean, he played his best game of the year last year or last week. He looked pretty compromised, but he was still better than he's been. He had the other injury in his knee or whatever. Just one of the strangest stories I can remember in the whole league. Like, it's just so strange to see how they handled it in the moment and now what they're going to do from here. Yeah, you know, I don't really feel bad for them.

John Watson played 12 games, right? Gave him a fully guaranteed contract. You knew what you were doing, and you did it anyways, right? The Browns, I think for the Browns players that are currently there, I feel bad because the team is very good, and they have a chance to be, I think with a decent quarterback, have a legit opportunity to be you know like a super caliber team but they kind of sold their soul for a quarterback that hasn't been on the field for them like i

don't i don't feel terribly bad for the organization i'll put it like that um yeah they didn't have to give him this contract they did not have to do that and they did it anyways to basically thumb their noses at all of us um yeah and now they're going to be they've you know their cap hit next year is like 63 million dollars some insane number for deshaun watson um it's just it's it's insane so uh yeah the browns i mean i think they were live for any of those future wagers but um probably not anymore so i i think that's just i you know i think the bangles it's not you know we're watching the bangles win the division i think it's probably a good wager before tonight um but obviously that time has passed now if they win tonight that number is not gonna be

good anymore if they lose it'll be even better but it doesn't feel like you know bangles if you look at like you know the if they win tonight and the Browns are hurt and the Cedars can't keep this up, the Bengals, I think, are alive to win the division. Yeah. This is such a massive game. It's interesting that we're not going to be able to talk about it. I know.

Because, yeah, it's going to really shape the rest of the AFC. I'm trying to find the odds now as we're talking. Because, yeah, the Bengals were like plus – we did this today on the Bear Bets podcast. They're plus 400 to win the division, I think. Something like that. Who's the better gambler between your two co-hosts? I mean, it's clear what my loss did for the podcast.

We had our first losing week, I think, of the season. So, I mean, it's clear who the key cog in the wheel is here. Well, last week – So, I don't know. Let's see last last week bear took the niners and we have jacksonville so that we were head up in that one that was my best bet of last week so bear won that one yeah um but uh no so um different podcast buddy we do different things for the podcast you didn't bite on that no fun all i know is all i know is

our record is good his record is good And we all have made some money. Let's get to the next game though. Let's move this along. Cause I think the next game. Well, you got almost a half time. We've done one game. Yeah.

Okay. All right. Why don't we talk about the NFC North game here? Bears Lions. The Lions are, wow. This moved to seven and a half. Wow.

That's crazy. This was up to nine yesterday. It was a 10, a few days ago. A lot of Bears money. Interesting. What do you think? By the way, Thursday Night Football, as I mentioned, is on many times now. Zay Flowers, over 500 yards, Matt, already done.

That was your wager. Let's go. You put it on there, right? I mean, he had 100. He had 500-something coming into this game. Has more tonight. They just call it a penalty that's coming back. But so this is seven and a half, huh?

Yeah, seven. Dude, there's eights out there now for this game. I mean, Fields is back. This game is in Detroit, right? Like that's my – it's like this would get ugly fast if Detroit plays to their full ability, right? I mean, I would probably stay away from this one i think it's a it's bears or pass right but it feels like a pass is the right way to do this yeah we missed the number here um if if we did

get the chance to do this a few days ago um i would have been on the bears for sure in a divisional game the lions coming off that big road win against the Chargers, a lot of points. You tend to want to take a team that put up 500. You want to fade a team that did that well on offense the following week. Bit of a letdown spot. Fields coming back. The Bears' offense actually looks pretty competent.

They're not necessarily winning great games, but they're keeping it like winning great games but you know they're keeping it close or you know they beat the bad teams i could i like this at plus 10 but i think it's seven and a half i think we got to pass it yeah i think we have to pass it here too yeah yeah all right moving on to uh man i texted you about this last week it was nice to see kyler murray back on the field uh now this week he's a public dog at Houston. His Cardinals are getting four and a half points to the Texans. America's team, the Houston Texans. Yeah.

Do you have a site on this one? Yes. A thousand percent of Arizona in this game. A thousand percent. Perfect. Great. Awesome. Love it.

Let me explain this. Okay. So remember after week five, Joe, not Joe Burrow, brock party was the mvp the niners were the best team that could ever live and they were the best ever went to cleveland got their asses kicked right remember a couple weeks later detroit lions golf mvp give it to golf went to baltimore lost 37 to 3 after this past weekend okay cj stroud best quarterback ever give him the mvp award domico ryan's coach of the year they're doing great things this is not like an anti-stroud take or anti-domico ryan's take but why can't we just say you know what he had a great game

without going to mvp the texans lost to the panthers 13 12 like three weeks ago matt what are we doing give me the cardinals plus five it's not even like a pro kyler murray pro cardinals it's just a complete fate of the texans in this game thousand percent fate of the texans arizona plus five yeah love it um kyler murray better on the road uh 17 92 against the spread on the road um tough team tough team to plan for i mean this the arizona offense was moving the ball pretty well with josh dobbs and now they have a much different quarterback a much different system james connor a week healthier and arizona's like they're going for it like they actually are trying to win games we thought they were trying to tank it looks like they're trying

to see what they have with kyler and you said it i mean stroud is just this has never happened like what stroud is doing is is in the unprecedented territory among the unprecedented people right like he's past what joe burrow was doing he's passing what bones was doing like it's going to come back to earth at some point and you said it this is a team that lost the freaking panthers two weeks ago i think the bengals last week were the hot team they were the team that everyone was like the bengals are back. Like they're going to win the AFC now. And they, they obviously fell on their faces. But yeah. Not to be a party pooper,

but it looks like Joe Burrow might be like hurt, hurt. He's left the game. And yeah, he's, he had a, he hurt his hand. He went to throw the ball and told his guys he couldn't go, and they ran back to the locker room. So – Oh, boy. And the – Lamar Jackson got hurt early in this game.

So not great for – this is why, by the way, like there's – I just saw a tweet. Zach Taylor says that Joe Burrow's right thumb is an amputee candidate per Carissa Thompson. Sorry. Sorry. Okay. Are we breaking news? All right.

All right. Okay. Let's go on to the next game, please. This has like massive impact for 500 of my fantasy teams. But while I look at the replay here, let's talk about Dallas laying 10.5 in Carolina. No chance. No chance.

Just zero fucking chance. No Carolina? I can't talk you into it? No. No chance. No chance. No. Look, Frank Reich took the play calling duties back this week.

They're a dumpster fire, Matt. They're in such a bad place right now, the Panthers are. Everything about them, geez. I mean, the Panthers plus the 10-and-a-half. Here's the thing about the Cowboys. The Cowboys, outside of the Arizona game, have beaten every bad team they play by multiple touchdowns. game have been every bad team they play by multiple touchdowns like like right it was 40 nothing 49 17 38 3 43 17 like they have kicked butt against bad teams the Panthers are legitimately bad

and I think you make the case easily that you know like there's a letdown situation here you're on the road but I'll tell you what, I live in Charlotte. They're going to be all Cowboy fans this game. It'll be a Cowboys home game. So I feel like the Panthers, man, do you want to be holding on at the end of this and being like, I hope Bryce Young can score a touchdown against this Cowboys pass rush at the end of the game, Matt?

I certainly don't want to be. No, we don't have to be. Just mainly a fade of Dallas off of this huge win. They're much worse on the road. They've been unbelievable at home. And then on the road, they just haven't, you know, they haven't done quite. They, they, they always kind of start a little bit slower. They're a front running team

you're buying them at their absolute you're fading them essentially at their absolute highest uh but carolina's really bad and you know i just don't know if they're a team you can bet on like if dallas were to go up 20 to nothing this game could be 50 to nothing so i'm fine passing it but uh you know it's it's right in that zone of like maybe this is the play um all right well let's move on to uh the the chargers who we mentioned earlier they are on the road in green bay packers plus three and we have a no packers rule right like we're just we're just not back i know i know but like we have the thoughts we we have to, right? We have to, right? Like the Chargers, the Chargers late, late three on the road. What are we doing?

Oh, geez. I mean, this is, to me, this is a maybe. Like just put Green Bay. If we don't get five, Green Bay plus three is a maybe. Because this is silly. The Packers have played better. We're not doing this okay fine all right we're not doing it man like they did look a little bit better last week uh but they still lost uh pittsburgh is just pittsburgh like i i just i don't know man i think we can do better than than

betting on jordan love okay all right i think we could maybe find a side on this next one uh this is the the raiders uh are going to the dolphins off a buy dolphins currently are laying 12 and a half please tell me who you like i please i have this is yeah of course great okay done perfect yes miami this is what do. It's my best bet on their bets, yes. Okay, well, then make the case because it seems obvious to me. Yeah, well, first of all, I'm going to tell you about the Raiders right now, okay? I have it off the top of my head because I did this already today on another podcast I'm on. The Raiders have five wins this year, okay?

Can I read you the wins? They beat Russell Wilson by one point. Russell Wilson by one. This is back when Russell Wilson wasn't playing read you the wins? They beat Russell Wilson by one point. Russell Wilson by one. This is back when Russell Wilson wasn't playing good, week one. They beat Jordan Love by four, Mac Jones by four, and that should have been two. They got the safety in the game, right? They beat Tommy DeVito, who lives in his mother's house,

by a lot of points, and they just beat the Jets by four. So Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Giants, Jets. Four of those five teams are drafting the top six this season, okay? They got killed by the Bills, lost the Sears, lost the Chargers, got murdered by the Bears, and the Lions beat them by 12. What do the Dolphins do, Matt? They beat bad football teams by a lot of freaking points. They're off a buy, off a loss.

I think this is ugly fast. Like 24-7 at halftime. It could get college score. You know, 42-17. The Raiders are 27th in points per game on offense. They don't score any points either. I love Miami in this game. Yep.

Miami, here are some things Miami does. They torch bad teams. They win at home. And they can run the ball super well against bad defenses uh the raiders match all of those things last week we bet against the raiders i have no regrets jeff for our philosophy of betting against uh a team that smokes victory cigars after beating who was it i read that I read that on the show yeah yeah I I I let's just let's just move it ahead another week uh the yeah the Dolphins have been hearing for two weeks how bad they are how they're not a real team how they don't belong with the big boys they still have a

chance to run away with this division uh I love the Dolphins in this spot I think the number's fine if we're getting it under 13 I think I think that works um so yeah give me the dolphins with a chain back by the way they're just there this is this could be a track meet like you said i'm i'm i'm with you so we got we got two we got two already all right perfect uh here's one we're not going to bet on the giants are going to visit los comandantes and the giants are getting all the money this line moved from 10 down to eight and a half we're not taking the giants and This line moved from 10 down to eight and a half. We're not taking the Giants and we're definitely not laying more in a touchdown with Sam Howell, unless you feel strongly the other direction.

No, this is not even a tease candidate for me. I'm like, this game is an unwatchable, unteasable, un, like no, like, I think I, I think I did Washington for survivor this week. And I don't even feel great about it. But Washington will win this game. They'll win this game. It won't be pretty. But DeVito is really bad.

Look, we took our shot with the one big favorite so far. I'm fine with sticking with Miami here and calling it a day with the – come on. Tomatoes minus 9 a half is ridiculous. It's absurd. Sam Hall, leading passer in the NFL. Who would have thought? Pretty strange.

All right, next, the last game in the early window, Jacksonville is hosting the Titans. This line has definitely moved a bit this week. What do we see in the latest this year? Is it still in the six range or is this bounced around? Seven. Seven. Do we take the Titans here?

They're not a home though. If you're, oh God, I don't know. I mean, what did, did you think Jacksonville was just a fake team after last week or do you feel like they uh or do you feel like they just had a bad week i feel like they i don't know man like so they lost the chiefs they lost the niners they beat the bills now who don't look as good anymore, right? They lost to Texans. I don't know. I mean, Tennessee did not play terribly well last week, right?

They lost to the Bucs last week. Do I have that correctly? Yeah, 20-6. I don't feel great about it, I don't think. They got killed by the Bucs, yeah. I don't feel great about it. I think they just stay away. Yeah, the Jacksonville – great about it i don't think by the books yeah i don't feel great about it i think just stay away yeah the the jacksonville the jacksonville's defense they either tend to absolutely dominate or get completely worked and with will levis it feels like it could get kind of ugly quickly

i will say i mean if we need a fifth it's one of those where we just take rabel blindly plus seven yeah yeah we've talked about Mike Tomlin a lot, but Rabel stats are just as impressive, just not as long of a body of work. With a spread of over three as a dog, he's 25, 14 and one against the spread. It's sort of just like an autoplay. So I'm fine blindly laying it if we need to,

but I'd prefer not to. And the seven is nice, I will say. Seven's good, yeah. We've got two games. We've got a few left. I only am sure about maybe one, although I have a feeling we're going to end up on the Monday night game. So let's move to the late window here.

Buddy, we have a podcast rule. If Mahomes is getting under a field goal in any football game, you automatically bet the Chiefs. That is a rule we have a podcast rule if mahomes is getting under a field goal in any football game you automatically bet the chiefs that is the rule we have it will be enforced again this weekend and it is the right play you know it i know we all know it we're gonna do it but let's talk about the other games first before we get to that game all right so please continue let's do that the bucks uh are going to the 49ers. Let's see what the latest is. We've got, this is up to 12 now. Tons and tons of action on the 49ers.

I don't think we can possibly buy the points with the Bucs here, Dio. No, I don't think so. Even though like this is what Shanahan's terrible is a favorite, right? And this is off a big Niners win but tampa bay i i mean the the wager to making this game is like baker may feel to throw a touch to throw a interception right like like this is just the bucks aren't gonna i think score a bunch of points in this game i mean the niners can cover this game 24 10 right i mean the niners very clearly matt when everyone's healthy they're really good right when everyone's healthy this year they've mostly scored over 30 points and they're healthy again

like they're sort of back and so i think the answer is you just sort of don't play this game and you put the niners in a money line parlay and just be done with it right like that's how you play this game where you take baker mayfield interception prop or Baker Mayfield underpassing. Something like with Baker Mayfield not playing well on the road in San Francisco. Yeah, I think that's probably right. San Francisco has this tendency now to just run it up against these teams. So I think this is just a –

I don't even try to. They just run the ball and they just smash teams. They don't try to run that. They just – they do keep McCaffrey in way too long. But they just under off. Yeah, to get a meaningless touchdown record, which they didn't even get. Right. All right, so that's a pass.

Next on our list, the Jets are going to the, man, the Buffalo Bills who are in shambles. Fired Ken Dorsey this week. But the public still, everybody still believes in Buffalo, I guess. It's seven points. The bets and the money are on the Jets. Is this a buy low spot for Buffalo? This is a buy low spot for Buffalo?

It kind of feels like it, doesn't it? Yeah. Like, I mean, this is do or die, right? Like, if they don't, part of the NFL that I think is hard is you have to sort of throw out results of the previous week and look at body of work. Body of work for Buffalo is not great. Don't get me wrong.

But if you throw out their worst game and throw out their best game, they're somewhere in the middle, right? So the best game was the dolphins it was a bad loss the other day for for for buffalo like there's somewhere in between that right but the jets can't score i mean even in the first game of the season they need a punt return touchdown right to like i'm looking right now the now. The win probability, the Bills were up 13-6 with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, and there was an 86% win probability. Doesn't it feel like this game could get out of hand?

I just feel like Buffalo is the side here. Yeah, I do too. Buffalo has not covered for six straight games, so you have a feeling that they're getting a little bit – they're getting pushed a little bit they're they're getting pushed a little bit um yeah i think everyone's gotten burned by them either in their survivor pool or you know some teas that didn't happen or something like that they were obviously a big favorite last week and teams that you know that that were a big favorite and lost

tend to do well the following week um this is also at home it's a late game i just feel like the crowd this is just sort of like this is where buffalo could really turn it on and bury this jets team that's just kind of hanging around i think the jets are getting a lot of credit for just being decent and they should probably honestly um but i do feel like this is a decent buy low spot i'm wondering if we can see if there's like a six and a half anywhere it doesn't look like there is um but i'm i'm fine putting this in the maybes because i do feel like this is a decent buy low spot. I'm wondering if we can see if there's like a six and a half anywhere. It doesn't look like there is. Um, but I'm,

I'm fine putting this in the maybes. Cause I just feel like a chance to, this is normally, if you just threw out maybe like the last two or three weeks, Josh Allen tends to win as a favorite by more than seven, right? Like he tends to win by multiple scores. They love to run it up their front runners.

They have confidence. Um, so I, I think that, I think it's this pretty're frontrunners. They have confidence. I think it's a pretty safe play, honestly. This Jetson is going to end at some point. It just has to. Absolutely. Next one.

This is probably my favorite of the week, Jeff. This is the Seahawks. Let's see. They're laying half a point. Maybe it's a pick. Maybe they're laying one point. They're laying a point. Who do you like here? Here in L.A.

I like the Rams. Yes! The Rams coming off of a bye. The Seahawks, I got a good look at the Seahawks this week as they played fighting Sam Howells. They made Sam Howell look like, you know, Josh Allen. Like, their defense gets a lot of hype because weatherspoon's a nice player um but they're just they're not a really strong team

they're they're masquerading as a as a contender i think the rams with stafford in there i just think you gotta take stafford um when he's a quarterback and he's getting a point at home uh especially you know sean mcveigh off of i has a nice has nice splits and if you remember the sort of wheel of of uh the nf of the nfc west this is the one where sean mcveigh has gone and beaten pete carroll with john wofford and you know with jared goff where you can't throw like this is just this is a good matchup for for the rams who are still trying to be good um yeah they get some linebackers back i think right right? Like they're just a little bit healthier. I like them in the spot a lot. And this was my favorite of the week.

I'm with you, buddy. And here's also a note on Seattle. And this is, I think, why I like them. I like the Rams in the spot too. Seattle is like a very, to use a young kid's term, very mid-team, right? So they lost at Bengals. We were on different sides in mid team, right? So they lost at Bengals. We were on different sides in this game, right?

You were on the Bengals. I think I was on the Seahawks. But the Seahawks had the ball in the red zone twice and did nothing. They come home and we were on the Seattle in this game. They needed a field goal to cover against Arizona. The win became 20 to 10. The Browns with P.J. Walker come in there and the Seahawks need a fourth-quarter touchdown

with a minute left in the game to win that game 24-20. Then the Loosler Ravens, 37-3, come back home, need a field goal at the end of the game as time expires to beat the Commanders. And by the way, they let Sam Howell march down the field in three minutes to tie the game there at the end. So, like, they're just mid they're just okay and the rams are off a buy with a healthy stafford a lot to kind of prove to get back into

uh the playoff contention i'm i'm with you here i'm all on this i'm i love it let's do it great lock it in um two really fun games left uh and I think each of us have a side in these. America's favorite story, Joshua Dobbs, is going to Denver with rejuvenated Russell Wilson and the Broncos. The Broncos now are playing 2-2.5. And I really like Denver in this one. I'm not sure where you are. Yeah, I'm going to stay away from myself.

Denver, I think, is the right side here. But I kind of just personally don't want to be on a game where Russell Wilson, I have to rely on Russell Wilson to win me the game type of thing. I think Denver is the side. Just as we talked about with Arizona and Houston, this is a great time to fade to fade um uh the vikings right two straight wins with josh dobbs everyone's talking about him and rightfully so it's not again this when we fade someone doesn't mean we don't like the person or the vikings have won five

straight games bears niners packers falcons saints um but they're on the road the brokers are playing slightly better especially on defense right defensive But they're on the road. The Broncos are playing slightly better, especially on defense, right? Defensively, they're getting a little bit better each week. Nine points to the Chiefs, eight points to the Chiefs, right? Or nine points to the Chiefs. 22 last week. But look, how do you feel about this game if the Bills don't have 12 men on the field? Like, are you, you know what I mean?

Like, that's the thing. It's like, are you still like are you are you you know i mean like that's the thing it's like are you still like oh broncos is the play here because they should have lost that game on on sunday night or monday night whenever it was played i think then we have a different opinion about the broncos but since they won that game which again was more the bills doing than anything else the very end at least all of a sudden they're now like the team to bet on so um i would stay away matt but if you love the broncos i i've no problem considering them here so here's my case the the first part of it is uh josh jobs has played 11 games as a starter two and nine is his record right yeah this is he's playing

out of his mind and it's the best other than stroud i think those are the two best stories of the year um so you would think that coming back to earth on a prime time road game with a notoriously good crowd uh is the spot where it would maybe turn into a pumpkin um and denver's just been better i mean you mentioned the defense and how it played against kansas city um i just think that they're doing some magic tricks. And, you know, at some point, if you just sort of like, yes, you're right. Like the Broncos are getting a little bit of a boost because they won a game they probably should have lost last week. But I think the Broncos early season struggles are still getting priced in here.

Like people still think of the 70 to 20, the way the season started where with the with the nat hackett stuff um where i think that everyone just sort of says like hey the vikings like they went they went in cover every week they're resilient remember that they're still down their top two receivers assuming jefferson doesn't make it back this week you know madison looks like he's not going to play so they're down their top running back they're banged up they have this very blitz heavy defense that's going to get them caught at some point and dobbs is just not as good as he's played so i think the broncos are a much better team than the public thinks and something that's kind of interesting is the vikings are

getting 55 of the tickets um the broncos are getting 82 of the money so the the line has moved towards the sharp money um So I think this belongs in the mix. I would understand if we went a different way, but I think that this is one of those where if we lost, we would go like, why did we bet on Russell Wilson? But that's what you have to do. You have to bet on Russell Wilson. You have to bet on Doc Wilson last

week. That one didn't come through, but I think it belongs in the mix. So here's the thing. So far, we have four that we really like, both of us, right? Arizona, Miami, Buffalo, and the Rams. We have a choice to take Russell Wilson as a two-and-a-half-point favorite or take Patrick Mahomes as a two-and-a-half-point favorite against a much better Eagles team than the Vikings.

But I feel like I'm going to put my money on a 15 here off a buy. Eagles off a buy as well. Again, the Chiefs defense is the best improvement of any unit this entire season. Like, they're a legit defense. Eagles offense, not as good this year, right? Eagles defense is not as good this year. Now, Chiefs offense certainly has question marks. But, you know, Travis Kelsey got a little bye week boost being argentina probably feels good and refreshed come back home

i i think kansas city off a bite like any read i didn't even look it up i didn't bother it's what 20 and three after a buy like some insane number after a buy um do you my home's 24 and 6 on extended rest uh read off of the by 58 and 26 straight up uh my home's 30 and 1 straight up in november and december in his last 31 it's like all the trends are absolutely ridiculous uh i figured we would just have to take this and we have two and a half now so i'm fine with the two and a half for kansas city i figured that that would be one of our five so i i think that we should so let's lock them in let's definitely lock in the rams we love the rams we love the cardinals and then i think and then okay if and then if you love the dolphins too

then it's between so buffalo and denver josh allen or denver yeah i actually like denver better i think i might too i think buffalo buffalo could just be broken like it's possible and i don't mind jobs in a big spot denver is the right call because of the the fading the josh jobs thing i'm i'm with you yeah i think i love you just pounding caffeine right now just trying to stay awake pounding with a cat caffeine like just getting started here do we know what's going on with joe burrow by the way like i know that he's out he's out just you know they said on twitter he's just out yeah he's just out the was Husky legend Jake Browning. Return questionable.

He came in the game with like a wrist thing. So just to recap before we take a slight break and then get into the vaulted. Arizona plus five and a half. Plus five, sorry. Miami minus 12 and a half. The Rams plus one. Denver minus two and a half. Chiefs minus two and a half.

I like where we're at, buddy. I like it. I do, too. I feel like we got some good numbers, too. Yeah, I mean, the Dolphins number I got personally, like 11. I think I texted you on Sunday night. It was like, Dolphins minus 10. I saw someone open it up at minus 10.

I knew that number would run. But, yeah, I think the Arizona number is going to come down to near three and a half before kickoff is my guess. Yeah. Okay. I bet that will steam down fast. Me too. I like our five Jeff and I like, I like doing this in person instead of over text. I feel like we might've landed on the Buffalo one. If we didn't, if I didn't sit here and opine about the Josh Dobbs center of gravity. So here we are

so we uh i agree should we get to our vaulted stuff let's do it yes all right be right back are you smarter than your friends prove it with vaulted by predicting challenging and being them with your sports knowledge vaulted spelled vltd is a place where you can store your sports predictions participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees and prove you are smarter spelled V-L-T-E-D is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes,

and there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Vaulted, and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me.

Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T--e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along guys i want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game i have been playing this season prize picks is a skill-based real money daily fantasy sports game how does it work you pick two to six players and if they will go more or less than the prize picks projection you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry so go to prize picks and use code g ssy for a first deposit match up to 100 it's so easy to use i can make my picks in less than 60 seconds the depositing was simple and straightforward they even just added apple pay so i was able to get up in minutes and start playing at prize picks you're competing against other people it's just you versus projections available instead of

battling thousands of other players including pros and sharks so follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better remember go to prize picks and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. All right, guys, we're back. Let's get to the vaulted pool. Remember, guys, go to the vaulted app, find my pool, Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. It's free to enter. You get $400 if you win, $75 second place, $25 third place. if you win. 75 second place. 25 third place.

If you beat me in the pool, you qualify for the big game pool. The day of the big game, $5,000 pool for that one. It's a lot of fun to, you agree or disagree with a prediction. You have one to 10 points on it. It's just another way to watch the game. This week we have kind of a plethora of some adjusted numbers and some props as well um so a couple things here um they have there's some some adjusted cowboys numbers here

so i feel like cowboys cover 13 and a half against the panthers you just disagree with that one right you take the panthers plus 13 and a half in the situation just sort of root for for like the panthers to get a backdoor cover i think if you i mean i i think everybody is going to be on the side of the cowboys in this just you know a team that's on fire versus a really bad team i do think this is a letdown spot for dallas so i think i might say i might agree with they cover the seven and a half but not the 10 and a half or the 13 and5, if you felt strongly. Yeah. I think I might fade them the whole way. But, yeah, the Panthers, man, the Frank Reich thing is what a mess.

So that's interesting. I like that they gave us a few options with that game. I feel like that's a nice way to play that one. It's a good way to middle this. You can middle this, right? You can take the Cowboys, agree, cover 7.5. Panthers, agree, cover 13.5. And there you go, right?

And you get a little middle opportunity. Justin Herbert over one-half touchdowns in Green Bay. It's kind of interesting here because he's had games where he's had 4, 3, 2, three two three two but he's had a bunch of games where he's had one and zero um he had obviously four last weekend after having zero the week before i feel like his figure is getting a little bit better i would take the the over here i would agree with it he will have more than one and a half passing touchdowns um especially on the road they might be behind at some point in this game, throw the ball. I like Herbert here. Yeah.

I actually am kind of – it's interesting. We passed on that game, but I feel like we're going to just be texting about whether we should have just taken the Chargers because I just feel like the Chargers could – they have looked really good on offense, but they just – you just can't bet on the Chargers. They just need a new coach. Let's see a new coach to be done with.

Jaguars will cover 7.5. I think at 7.5, I'm on the Titans here. I would say disagree. 7.5 in this vaulted pool, go with the Titans in this one. Okay, Saquon Barkley will have more than 24.5 rushing attempts. He has only been over that number once this season. That's it he's at 12 17 24 21 36 16 and 13 actually rushing them less because they're behind in every game i would say i would disagree right because they're behind we gotta throw the ball yeah i agree um i have a

feeling that that related to that the next one in the pool is Sam Howell having over one and a half total touchdowns against the Giants. I have a feeling that one of these weeks is going to be the Sam Howell breakout statement game. And I feel like if I'm Eric Bien-Ami, I'm just sort of like, hey, you see this? How about if Sam Howell is the number one passer in the entire NFL? Do you think I should be a head coach now? So I have a feeling that as Washington sort of falls apart with their season, the enemy makes his case to be the head coach either of Washington or some other team.

A lot of Bill Belichick rumors, Jeff, are what I'm hearing. I know. I've been seeing that as well. All right. So this is pretty funny. Giants have more sacks than Commanders. I would disagree with that one. That's going to be like a 25.1, I feel like.

God. Here's what I love at the very end. Cooper Cup will have more than seven half receptions. I put 1,000 points on agree. Like, with Matt Stafford being back, he's going to feed the ball to Cooper Cup the entire game. I don't care if Witherspoon's on the other side. Cooper Cup's going to have a bazillion catches in this game.

Yeah, 100%. This is a must win for them. We're on them. We love the Rams. I'm with you there. What about our guy Tyler Lockett? More receiving yards than DK Metcalf. I believe Tyler Lockett was one of our overs this preseason. Was he?

This might be a good spot to back him. Again, not rooting for injuries, but our running back ones are going to it was one of our overs this preseason. Was he? We're doing it. This might be a good spot to back him. You know what? Again, not rooting for injuries, but our running back ones are going to like, we're going to make a lot of money on the running back unders, buddy. I think we have a system, Jeff. I really do. I think we, that was your idea.

I think we've cracked the code. I've already put some checks on some of them. Like we're going to. Yeah, I did too. Yeah. We're going to hit a lot of those of those again not uh we're not rooting for injuries but um that's sort of how you have to to to play some of these um all right anything any uh any okay we'll end with this and with this matt what is one thing about parenthood

that you maybe didn't think you'd feel uh now i love by the way one thing about parenting too is like you know the exact days the kids alive 19 days four hours how long it's been yeah what uh um baltimore scores again they're up 21 10 it's a half time we get to half time um all right what what's the one thing you thought or what you know you kind of experienced you didn't think you'd experience i would say on the positive side as i mentioned at the top of the show and and some of my friends who are actually watching this now now shout out to my buddies will and matt who are ravens fans um people really show up for you right like your friends the people who you don't necessarily hear from all the time have really

checked in on me and have all told me like, there's like a guy, I'm one of my fans football leagues who I rarely have ever spoken to. And he's like texting me every day and been like, how'd your like overnight feed go? Like how did like, how's your new schedule working? Like did the baby make his birth weight back? Like just that kind of stuff where it's like those parents just know what

this is like. So I think the community part of it has been the nice part i also i'm gonna be i'm gonna admit to something buddy i kind of feel like i'm sure you felt this way like i kind of feel like i'm tougher than most people and i don't complain a lot like i kind of feel like people want to complain about whatever their current affliction is and i was just like i'm not gonna be that tired it's not that hard buddy it's brutal like i'm just i'm always awake i'm just i'm awake i'm never not awake it's crazy i have like whole days that happen in hours where i used to sleep and everyone's like it's not going to be like that forever but i'm like when like is it four months four months like that's a long time it's been two well no four months is is like sort of

like the the what the sleep through the night type of thing like that's when they're supposed to start doing that at least that's when we started it gets easier by the week like they'll start sleeping more and more and more but four months is when like alex and emmy got sleep trained and slept through the whole night um so like that's what you can start doing because they can eat they can eat enough food based drink enough formula or breast milk to get through the night like they have to have full bellies doing. Cause they can eat, they can eat enough food based, drink enough formula or breast milk to get through the night. Like they have to have full bellies to do that. They just don't, they can't get enough food right now to sleep that long.

Like they just, it's just, it's, it's sleep, eat, poop, sleep, eat, poop. I don't know what I eat. Like last night I was awake from one to five. And in that time I just passed it with listening to sports betting podcasts and uh watching Curb Your Enthusiasm and I also just like ate a meal and I said what is this like what am I doing I was just like eating cold pasta at like 3 30 in the morning with my kid just like passed out like what is going on actually he wasn't passed out he was taking a dump on me for like a full hour he He's just like, can't stop.

Oh my God. Bring back so many memories. The thing you, the thing too about, about early parent is like, I've told you this before. I think like, you know,

nothing repairs you for it. There's just nothing. You can read any book you want. It doesn't help you with that. It's like, you will try anything to get your kid to go to sleep. Like it becomes, and one thing might work one time,

it won't work the second time. I remember when we had Alex, when he was young, before the sleep training part kicked in, we were in New Jersey and he would go to bed in his car seat. So we would drive up and down 17 in Paramus, all the way up to like Franklin Lakes, come all the way back down. And when we play, he liked the song waves by mr probes

and we play this song over and over and over again driving up and down 17 at like eight o'clock at night get him asleep we take him we leave him in his car seat and put it into the into the crib and he'd sleep you know however long we got him to sleep so we could go to bed for a few minutes and then he'd wake up at some point and that was it but like used to anything you can't get the baby to sleep right well you think i i mean i definitely thought like oh like i'll just like do everything right and buy the book and i'll never do this and i'll never do that you're just sort of like there's just you know you just you just have to do everything and like we our kid has a lot of gas and our doctor was like we were like

can we try this thing and he was like throw everything you can at it like he was like get this medicine get this medicine he's like just don't die like sleep like try to sleep for like three hours at a time and it's it's survival it's crazy like i just don't know how i don't know how you do this a second time like i get doing it once because you don't know. When you're like, oh, I'll just do it again. I think there's like this thing to just block it out. Like, how do you do it a second time? You just prepared for it. I don't know.

You just know. And you're just like, oh, my life's going to just suck forever. That's just like what everyone says. Do you have siblings? No, I don't. And neither does my wife. Both only children. So is my wife.

Every second child is the same because you just don't worry as much. You don't spend as much time coddling. You don't spend as much time terrified of everything that happens to them is the worst thing ever. Like, what do I do about this? You're like, oh, you got a got a fever ah they'll be fine but you know like you like oh they got gas well alex had gas he was fine i don't have to go to the doctor oh they're crying oh well i asked like it's just that's just what it is like you just in the third child we're not having a third child i don't know

um that's why everyone who has a second child the second child is always the same because you just you it's less coddling it's like you know what to do like less worry less less um confusion um like we one thing too like the hospital didn't want us to to to formula give any formula alex early on and he cried for like two days because he couldn't get enough thing to eat and and the breastfeeding wasn't working as well so guess what we did with emerson we just brought formula we just brought formula to the hospital and when she couldn't breastfeed as well we just supplement her with formula probably she's freaking hungry all the time because we she two hours old we said just supplement all her food and formula like that's like one thing where it's like yeah okay we want to sleep we want to sleep this time. So just give her some food as she goes to sleep.

Like stuff like that. You know, like you just, you just, you just, you learn it. That was the craziest thing of our experience at St. John's. Great hospital. Jeff was born there. I was. So we did it. By the way, like, anyone still listening?

Thanks. So we did a whole day. We did an induction. We were there the whole day. Yeah, it took a while. I was worried. It took a long process. By the way, I texted Gabe.

It was like, yo, is everything okay? It's been like 24 hours. I haven't heard anything from Matt. I was concerned. I don't want to bother you. I will say you were not the first person I needed to update, but you were in the top 20. I will say you were not the first person i needed to update but you were in the top you were in the top 20. no because i know because part of it was like our meredith's inductions were really easy they went like fast and so i was like oh i text gabe i don't want to bother you that was

like a bye-bye hey buddy how's it going like in the middle of like her pushing him like she's like there's jeff texting me um But no, I did text Gabe. I was like, I just want to make sure it was okay. I would have probably answered. I'd be like, oh, it's Jeff. Yeah, no. No, it just, she was sort of having contractions. They weren't sure when it started.

So it didn't start. Whatever, it took forever. And then they get, you know, we get to the next part of the stage, you know, midnight or something. And the doctors are, and you know, there's, breast milk doesn't come in for a few days so like even if you have good intentions it just doesn't happen and right they were they were it's just like they don't offer the formula and you're like guy like what's what's our alternative here the kid just doesn't eat like

that's it's don't eat or like nothing like what are you talking about like it's just so bizarre nothing about like early on you know it depends where hospital you're at and what they believe and what you believe like but if you're just going straight breast milk like i get it but takes like yeah like you said doesn't come in right away and then the kid just and that's what i said with the second kid you're like no one tells you that right with the second kid we just brought formula to the hospital so we just better when she was hungry okay no worries and she's still breastfed for months but we just like supplemented when we had when we had to there was one moment jeff that i that i think you'll love to hear about um that there is you know these hospitals like they never leave you alone like it just never stops there's just

people in and out there's the phones ringing there's stuff happening there's like the guy comes in he's like hey i'm here to like check the bed it's like i'm it's four in the morning there was no other time where you could have done this like what's happening so there was this like kind of harrowing moment where you know it was just like we're leading up to everything and there's like 100 nurses in there and the phone rings and it i'm just like what who could this be and one of the nurse picks it up and is like here just just talk to them and i'm like what is this and it's like the cafeteria and they're like hi like you need your dinner order and i'm like i'm sorry like no and she was like just do you want spaghetti and meatballs i was like i guess

like what i don't know like like what's happening and Ivy just was like I think I was in labor and I heard you ordering a salad like I don't know ranch like it was just such a stupid thing my last surgery I had for my ankle hopeful was lesser you're ever gonna have my tenth surgery in my life you know know they come in the they come in and check in your room like you said like every hour right and I had like a blood pressure cuff on my arm and it was you know they they you know they would you know squeeze it every you know 10 minutes to make you know check your your blood pressure I had the thing on my calf to help with the you know blood circulation so you don't get blood clots and it's freaking annoying like and then they have to come in and check if it doesn't work right so i told the nurse i go look i go look

it's 2 a.m i'm like look okay i i'm gonna take the blood pressure cuff off just turn the alarm off give me two hours two hours i asked you like just and she said cool i took everything off for two hours i probably got probably get fired if this found out no it's years ago i was just like i want to sleep please no alarms yeah i'm good i'm not gonna die like just take my blood pressure cuff off and let me sleep for two hours i kept on the the the circulating blood one of my calf but i was like look please stop stop so it's unbelievable i think by the time our kids are grown up maybe they'll figure Look, please stop. Stop. So, thank God. It's brutal, man. It's unbelievable.

I think by the time our kids are grown up, maybe they'll have figured something out in hospitals because it is absolutely ludicrous how they treat people there. But they were great. I want to say that. St. John's, they were fantastic. I'm glad to have you back. Next week, this show will be on Wednesday

because we have Thanksgiving games on Thursday and then we have games on um on Sunday uh so we'll be back on on Monday with the recap show with Gabe Matt I believe schedule wise we'll be back with us on on Wednesday obviously that can that can change with his schedule but um glad to have you back buddy looking forward to another winning week I love hearing the stories uh brings back a lot of. I'm sure people listening now that have kids or older kids, new kids, waiting for kids will enjoy these as well. So have a great weekend

everyone and we'll talk to you guys on Monday.