Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 12

Episode Date: November 23, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back a day early to bring you analysis of all three Thanksgiving NFL games this year, plus everything else on tap for Black Friday and the rest of the weekend.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's wednesday november 22nd i'm jeff schwartz is jeff schwartz is smart and you were live on twitter on your favorite podcast platform with choice happy thanksgiving everyone we are recording a couple days early because we have nfl games on thursday one on friday a bunch of them on sunday and one on monday as well we cover them all as we do each and every week. We give you our five favorite wagers by the end of the show. And as usual, later in the week, we are partnered with the Vaulted app, the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 of cash prizes with $5,000 allocated to the final pool of the season,

which will be the day of the big game. That's Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place where you can store your predictions, which we will do the end of the show you can participate cash prize pools like my own without any entry fees and you can prove you're smarter than your friends i'll have my own pool each week as you guys know by now you answer questions to win cash prizes you agree or disagree you set a point total from one to ten and there are no entry fees to participate. We're handing out $500 a week.

$400 to the winner. $75 to second place. $25 to third place. And if you beat me in the pool, you qualify for the big game pool, which again will be $5,000 at the end of the season. Download Vaulted VLT. Do you remember to use my code Jeff? That's Jeff with a G to find my pool.

Matthew, we were doing so well. We've hit a little bit of a rough stretch, which is going to happen in any season. We're 32-19, 3-3 in Broncos, so we're 32-19-4. We're at 58% after one 3-1 weekend. Things just didn't go our way. Like we had Kansas City. They should have won and covered that game.

They were the better team. Shit happens. The Broncos we had, they had a small number, 2-1. One didn't go our way. Like we had Kansas City. They should have won and covered that game. They were the better team. Shit happens. The Broncos we had, they had a small number, two and a half, one didn't cover. On a two-point play that felt like they actually

didn't want to cover the game, it was like, oh, how do I want to play and not cover the game? That was the perfect play. We're back for Thanksgiving, early for Thanksgiving. Your first Thanksgiving

as a father, so enjoy that. I will enjoy frying my turkey and all the sides that we're going to have. I don't know if we're going to enjoy wagering on these games, though, on Thanksgiving. Three games as usual, and the same couple teams play each and every Thanksgiving. The night game is the one that's always different. So let's start out, Matt, with our picks with the Thanksgiving Day games. So efficient, Jeff.

It's like we're trying to save people time for their holiday. I love it. Nice to see you. Please don't burn your house down with the deep fried turkey. I've seen too many of those videos out there. I have an electric fryer. It's not a propane fryer. No open flame.

I do it the right way. Thank you very much. Very good. Public service announcement. We're giving you all kinds of things on on this podcast um so there you mentioned the three games let's start with the earliest one uh the detroit lions playing seven and a half to green bay green bay maybe a little rejuvenated maybe they were on our do not wager list um we can talk about thanksgiving games as a whole we can there's lots of things we

can do here but i i think this is probably a pass for me but i'm curious if this is on your list just tease the lines down to one and a half we dealt with it right it's like it's that simple um put them in a tease with something you could tease something else on this on this day maybe you bring the niners down to a a near pick them you put seattle up to 13. I mean, like, there's ways to play this. But, you know, this is the early game. It's always a little bit sleepy. It feels like early on. A lot of people bet the under in this game.

I'm not touching the under in this spot. The Packers are getting a little bit better, as we've seen. Each week is kind of incrementally better on offense. The Lions look like one of the best teams in the NFL at the moment. So, it's a stay away, man. It's just, it's not a game i have any feel for any side it was six and a half maybe i looked toward the lines but seven and a half i don't feel like putting money on the packers in this situation either so uh this to me is a is a pass yeah um

in general the rule of thumb is uh that the chalk tends to cover and win on thanksgiving um the except the cow trying to get the right number here yeah except the cowboys um but yeah that usually the public favorites end up covering so this is a spot weirdly where you would want detroit despite it being kind of a uh you know a big line for a team that we don't generally like to trust i'm just trying to find the the number of what the what the favorites do on thanksgiving uh favorites of seven points or more on thanksgiving are 23 and 8 against the spread since 1990 so in general you're going to want to take detroit here if you have to make a pick um but it's a pass for us speaking i think of passes for us if you'll allow me in one one minute of soapbox on my commandantes, they're 12 and a half point dogs in Dallas.

You mentioned it's good to fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. They're 1 and 11 against the spread in their last 12 on Thanksgiving, which is crazy. Dak 1 and 5. I think this is the lay down spot. The reason why, by the way, that is, is because the Cowboys are a very public team and the line gets overinflated on Thanksgiving. So why just shoots like it just goes way up like this again. Washington's favorite by nine last weekend did win, obviously. Now they're 12 point dogs. That's a that's a giant swing in a point spread from week to week.

And a lot of it happens to be just a lot of money in the Cowboys. point spread from week to week and a lot of it happens to be just a lot of money in the cowboys yeah that's right i mean i think honestly if you're gonna bet this one maybe wait till right before kickoff dallas is just gonna keep getting that money um everybody at home with their phone out is just gonna keep betting the cowboys and yeah if you can get like 14 i'd maybe like the commanders but this could be the game where they go like wait a second we have a long week ahead of us they still have a buy in front of them like this could be the time where they make the move in front of rivera if they don't show up here so pretty unpredictable uh pretty unpredictable outcome um dax sort of loves beating on washington too so this is gonna be a sad one i think producer hank and i are just probably not gonna watch this

game and maybe just check our phones if it's close in the third and third or fourth quarter that's that's my plan here um yeah i have some interest in the next game jeff i'm curious if you do well that's san francisco at seattle i just want to that line is seven right now one final thought on uh on on this game the cowboys though have beat the shadow of bad teams this year. And so, just something to note, they continue to do that. By the way, there is a seven and a half at DraftKings, not a sponsor, for the game

that ends with the Steve Aoki halftime concert in Seattle. 49ers. And will you turn on the Commander's Game to watch the Dolly Parton halftime show? Is that happening? Yeah, Dolly dolly parton halftime show is that happening yeah dolly parts at halftime was scott's staff unavailable like what the i feel like every year like they're missing the creed opportunity it says that sort of every time this year i believe it's jack harlow for the early game dolly pardon for the the the middle game and steve aoki for the nighttime game.

Really hitting every demo there. Like you're just going across the whole spectrum. There's a little something for everybody there. Somehow that's anything for me though. I don't know how that's possible. Oh, well, okay. So you take Seattle plus seven and a half, right? I'm actually on San Francisco here.

Oh, okay. Oh, okay. So we're seven. Okay. Yeah. So let me make that case for you. Okay. First of all, crazy stat. The 49ers, I believe in 20 of their last 22 games,

20 of their last 22 wins have been over seven. So when they win, they sort of have that Josh Allen thing of like, when they win, sort of have that josh allen thing of like when they win they win big um the other part of this is road favorites do super well on thanksgiving it's not a spot that you tend we don't tend to like big road favorites for obvious reasons thanksgiving is the time to take them um the other thing is geno smith definitely a little bit injured at the very least this is a short week um they lost a brutal game last week that jason myers missed kick which gave us our win thankfully uh kenneth walker out a pretty banged up secondary that i think is a little bit overrated because weatherspoon's been

so good and also the 49ers are totally healthy like they came off the bye like brock parties looked like a totally different quarterback after he got past that concussion thing. This is the rare time where it's like McCaffrey's good. Samuel's good. Iook's good. Trent Williams is good. Boast is good. Like this, this could be a really good spot for them. And San Francisco tends, I forget how this one works in the wheel of the NFC West, but San Francisco tends to do really well against. Yeah. Yeah. I think this is one of those.

So I don't know. What do you think? Okay, so I was going to try to bungle my way through a Seahawks case here. We've been on or off the Seahawks, or we've considered them in many games over the last couple of weeks. And what I've come to see from them is they are just okay right yep go back five weeks six weeks they lose the bangles we talked about the red zone offense that game terrible we had the car we had the seahawks the next we need a field goal to cover 10 against the

cardinals late in that game the browns with pj walker going to seattle and should have won that game seattle wins late in that game play Play the Ravens, get smoked, beat the Commanders by three, and lose to the Rams. They're just a very average team, Matt. And the Niners, when they are playing well, to your point about the number of them just skyrocketing when they win, when they're playing well, they kick everyone's butt. And if there is at all an idea that that drew lock might play in this game this number

will go above 10 in a heartbeat so um seven is a good number i'm fine with watching this game and rooting for the better team to win and cover that feels a lot better than hoping that they turn the ball over and look like crap and seattle covers this game late you know i mean yes seattle's tackles seattle's tackles a little shaky right now gets that niners pass rush i'm i'm fine with it i'm i've told you man like if you if you love something we're putting it i don't love a lot this week so i might need your help yeah yeah i'm i you know it's tricky land seven uh on a short week but shanahan seven and two against the spread on short, on short rest since 21.

That's second best behind Sean McVay. Interestingly, the 49ers have covered, let me see, nine, the eight of nine in their last against the NFC West. They've been hot. And yeah, the big thing about the home dogs, two and 27 straight up on thanksgiving since 2000 so it's one of those spots where you just don't have to worry too much about laying it with the favorite um okay so the fact that we're getting seven i think is fine it's gonna move

i bet this gets to seven and a half like if if there's any news like you said about gino this could go the other way and really steam so i think we're locking in a good number here if we get seven okay we'll take seven let's do it what do we got next all right black friday buddy the jets tim boils jets hosting the dolphins the dolphins have been bad to us we were on them early and they've they've come around and hurt us in the last couple weeks i i don't see a world where we could we could make a play on this game do you no not certainly not the Jets getting points at home in this game. I have the under in this game. It's 41.

Look at the Dolphins. The last – the three games they played good defenses, I think it's 17 points, 14 points, and 20 points against Buffalo. And the flip side, the Dolphins' defense is Jalen Ramsey has come back. They've allowed 17, 14, and 13. Like the defense is much better with Jalen Ramseysey back to me figuring things out with the fan geo so they're playing maybe better on defense not as good on offense against these better defenses but tim boyle like come on matt like yeah they're covering 10 points this game could be you know

24 7 like 24 10 like in in that's a very reasonable outcome for this game. I'm not putting money on Tim Boyle. I see this stuff this week. Oh, Nate Hackett and Tim Boyle are on the same page. Oh, that's who I want to align myself with, Nate Hackett? That's the guy I want to be like, yep. Brutal, man. No, absolutely no chance.

The under is my best bet on the Bear Bets podcast for this week. And so I'm good with the under in this spot and just having that ticket. I like that play. This Jets thing, man. Tim Boyle, I mean, there's a reason they didn't go to him earlier. He's got, like, legendarily bad college stats. You know, he wasn't able to win games at uconn wherever he played uh this is not going to end well um this is basically as whether the jets defense can

continue to sort of hold down miami um so that's a pass i'm sure we'll end up talking each other into a side bet of some kind on friday because i mean what are we not at this game like what are we talking about all right speaking of games we actually will not bet. The Patriots and the Giants. I was going to try to just do plus three and a half for the Giants because you're getting the hook. And here's what I'll do instead. For this game, would you rather have Mac Jones or Tommy DeVito as your quarterback?

Tommy DeVito because I know that anything weird can happen at some point. I'd rather just roll with the weirdness than roll with Mac Jones who does nothing for anything at any time. Right? Yeah. I think that's probably right. Who is laying three and a half on the Patriots this weekend? I don't know, man.

There's still so much respect in Vegas for the Patriots. I think people are like, it's Belichick. He's got to figure this DeVito out like this this is just an abomination and now that my insane hypothetical is off the table can we just move on to an actual yes maybe yes all right pittsburgh uh this this line's been all over the place i want to see what the latest is i've i'm seeing you can get the bangles plus two and a half somewhere or as far as one. Basically, the Steelers are favored on the road against Jake Browning and the Bengals.

Man, I don't like how I feel about this one. Do you have a lean here? If we're getting two and a half with the Bengals, you'd take it, right? I think so. I think so. Where's two and a half with the Bengals. You'd take it, right? I think so. I think so. Where's two and a half at? I'm seeing it on action here.

Two and a half. I'm going to find the two and a half. Because I will gladly take two and a half. Plus two and a half. I don't know where it's... I don't know what book that's at. I'll take the one. I think the Bengals win this game.

Yeah, I mean, I think they could too. One of the things is – well, go ahead. Make the case. So points bet has a plus 2.5. That's where it's at right now. Perfect. Great. So as we're recording this, points bet has a plus 2.5.

We're going to take a plus two and a half. The case for this is it seems like in some of these games when you're playing, you know, a Steelers team like them, the backup quarterback thing doesn't seem to matter. I mean, they just lost their backup quarterback, right? Because Kenny Pickett's not any good and they can't move the ball in offense. But, like, look around like this game. The Bengals are better at overall, right?

They're better at offensive line, skill position players. On the whole, right? Obviously, if Teagans doesn't play, maybe it changes. But, you know, it's Pickens and – Firemuth's hurt, right? Is he here? Am I right on that? He's coming back, I think.

He's coming back. That's what I heard. Coming back. But, again, Kenny Pickett has just done six touchdowns this year, like some insanely low number. Jalen Warren is good, but they don't give him the ball. Now, obviously, because of the coordinator change, maybe it's different on offense.

I don't know. As a defense, the Bengals have taken a little bit of a step back this year compared to what they have been in previous years. But, you know, outside of T.J. Watt, it feels like a pretty even defensive matchup, right, in this game. And so Bengals are at home. Jake Browning hasn't played football in a long time, so I don't know how good he's going to be.

But the Steelers is a favorite. We go over this all the time. Our Terribles are a favorite. They're terrible in this spot. So Bengals plus two and a half. If we get two and a half, which we see right now, I'm,

I'm, I'm over this. I'll take it. Yeah. Interesting. Thanks Hank. The fireman played last week. He had one catch.

So he's working his way back. I, the only thing that trips me up here is if there's like a bounce back after the firing of matt canada because i i gotta be honest i think bangles are the right side here the first the first reason this interesting thing about backup quarterbacks when they come in um since 2019 when a backup quarterback comes in the team that uh trots those guys out 67 51 and 2 against the spread uh the last two years 25 and 20 so it

seems like these backups come in they're a little underrated um and maybe the team gets a boost like that probably isn't happening here but the other thing that's to browning's advantage is remember the bangles played thursday so they've had you know he probably didn't get any first team reps the whole year maybe at the beginning of the year when burrow was injured then he gets that extra long time to practice you know it feels like this is sort of that stand your ground moment for the bangles where it's like they lose this one the bangles get up another game on them they just lost to the ravens this is it and then if that happens then they start to think about what do we do with our veteran guys and all that stuff so i think at home it's a pretty safe play the other thing was with the steelers is like you know the steelers like this the the

trope of mike tomlin like has become like everyone's on it now and you know the steelers have had this just crazy luck this year uh you know last week they went to play dtr and couldn't figure him out jordan love look great against them. Will Levis looked good against them. Like, I do think that Browning can, you know, at least be competent. He didn't look atrocious coming into the middle of the game. So I think this is the right thing. The only thing is if somehow the firing of Matt Canada just, like, opens up Pittsburgh's offense.

But I don't think the personnel are there. So I'm willing to stick with what they have. We were wrong about – can you pick it this year like we thought he'd take a jump but he clearly hasn't so i don't know if a new coordinator makes him take that jump very quickly right like i they definitely have to call better plays and sequence better plays but can you pick it make better throws all of a sudden now and i would say the answer is no the answer is no to that right yeah all right we'll see i mean just give it to pickens and more and figure the rest out um but yeah i like the bangles the two and a half is nice uh all right

can we just skip panthers titans the lines four uh please don't please don't try to talk me in okay well it doesn't matter i. Don't do it. Matt. Don't you dare. Do not do it. The Panthers suck, like, very, very much. Their coach is going to get fired soon. Like, they are a dumpster fire. I'm not saying Tennessee is the right side here,

but from a football perspective, this game should not be terribly close. Like, the Panthers are legitimately awful, dude. Bryce Young is regressing each and every week. We don't have to put Tennessee in here. Maybe it's too simple to put Tennessee in here. But the Panthers are bad. They're bad.

So we can pass on this because Tennessee isessee's not very good but i don't know how the panthers keep this game i mean they'll keep it close because maybe it's a titans game and they're not the bestest favorites but um we'll stay off of it it's fine i don't need to have it in here i mean titans would be the side uh but you know i'm gonna put it as a maybe here we go tennessee minus three and a half. God, how uninspired. Just impossible Titans. That's a game like I would just ask you if we won afterwards. Like I wouldn't even like our record matters to me a lot.

I bring it up a lot with friends and colleagues. And I still wouldn't care enough about it to watch a single second of this game. By the way, that's a fifth straight podcast. My daughter has run into my office. She's like, Daddy, do not bet on the Titans Panthers. You're better than those. We recorded different times, too, and she still manages to come in and bother me in the middle

of every single podcast I'm doing. At least this time she didn't talk. She's like, oh, you're on camera. She saw your face and just disappeared. That happens a lot, I think, around you. But nonetheless. Does she know who I am? I don't think so.

She knows who my producer on the Pac-12 is because Dan used to talk to her a lot. All right. Let's move it along. Is he funnier than me? Is he what? Is he funnier than me? Funnier looking, I would say.

Not funnier. Somehow that worked out in my favor. All right. It did work your favor all right what do we got next all right i think we're gonna have a real conversation here jacksonville road favorites at houston uh the texans uh one of the hottest teams in the league jacksonville road favorite i've come I've changed my mind on this game 20 times and I, I have, I have landed on a side. What side are you on? Well, go first, please. I'm curious. I've landed on Houston. Um, and the reason is that I think Jacksonville, like I think Jacksonville gets this crazy benefit of the doubt that we don't really give other teams that are kind of in their boat. Jacksonville, I just want to sort of go through their schedule here and talk about the quarterbacks who they've beaten.

They've beaten Will Levis, Kenny Pickett, Derek Carr-Berley, Minshew. They did beat the Bills. They beat Desmond Ritter. They got smoked by the Texans the last time they played and lost them lost my home so they haven't really beaten a good quarterback uh to this point last week they finally broke out everyone was waiting for that sort of statement breakout game they finally got it that's after a three-point performance the week before but tennessee we were just talking about like that was what two weeks after they traded their best player in the secondary like great job beating will levison home congratulations like you're supposed to be a playoff team

uh you know the the texans like yeah it's this feels super public um i you know they're getting all they're but they're getting both the majority of the bets and the money the public and the sharps are aligned here it's actually just moved to plus two uh interesting i see a plus two now um huh um the other thing oh yeah the other thing i want to just bring up here sorry i got distracted by the line so houston they actually probably could be they could even have a better record and look even better than they currently do like last week was kind of fluky like a couple of red zone turnovers that are not typical for cj stroud um they could have like you know they had a game where they lost their kicker

in the middle of the game like they they're just they play all these games close um and cj stroud is a dog he's five and one that's where you want to take him not when he's a favorite um and so yeah i just think houston, they're probably about even, and I just don't really get why Jacksonville's a road favorite against probably a playoff team. I think it's not totally fair. I think it's fair to note Jacksonville's offense has just not been the same this season.

And Houston's, you know, their defense DVOA is their 18th, but their overall 12th. Jacksonville's 9th. As you mentioned, Jacksonville hasn't really beaten anyone. They've lost to sort of the better teams they've played. And remember, they lost to Houston by 20 earlier this season. Yeah.

Houston already beat them. So we were on Arizona last week, I think, in a situational spot. But sort of Houston, to me, proved themselves in an ugly game to win that clunker last weekend. I just, they're playing good football. I'm, I'm finally, we get plus two.

You said there's a two out there. I'm, I'm going to Houston. I'm, I love Houston plus two. Nice. We got two line moves in our favor here. Maybe things are going to break our way this week.

Yeah. Yeah. Also, I mean, just like the Texans pass rush has been good. Like, you know, the Jags offensive

line has been a little banged up so i i think this is just a good spot for houston um and but it just it almost feels a little too easy i feel like we we sort of talked ourselves out of it now we're back in um all right let's move to a uh oh boy nfc south gauntlet game for first place i think uh this would be the uh saints and falcons you can kind of get whatever you want here it's about one to one and a half either side like uh so this is this is a time you know thanksgiving supposed to be thankful for you know our listeners for our friends for our family i think for our listeners we best our friends, for our family. I think for our listeners, it would be best to skip this game. You're going to go to a game we're actually going to wager on

and not spend a second talking about the Falcons or Saints. Okay, interesting. So we're going to wager. Does that mean you want to wager on the Bucs at the Colts? The Colts laying two and a half at home against Baker Mayfield? No, we have other games to talk about. There's other games you like we're segwaying us to the next game yeah no I I honestly think I just quickly on the NFC South

we're gonna skip that next game too I think um you can get either the Falcons or the Bucs like you can get the Falcons like plus 285 I think in the Bucs like plus 300 something to win the NFC South like what is it with the saints like i just feel like the saints are getting so much respect they're they're a little bit banged up too and they've just had like just such a weird season they still have derrick carr and dennis allen who are perpetual underachievers i feel like the move here is maybe to throw some like i kind of think the bucks are a little bit saucy like i they they play everybody close like they could have honestly covered that game against san francisco last week they got they got a little unlucky they still have a good passing game they still have

some good pieces up front and on defense i kind of think the bucks at like plus three i'll look it up but i think that's not a bad play for maybe for our futures. What do you think? I don't think it's a bad play, but I just think about Tampa Bay is like, what's their identity this season? Oh, you know what? This team does this well. Mike Evans is their identity. Like it's Mike Evans and jump off to Rashad White and some good linebackers. That's their identity. It's not great, but we off to Rashad White and some good linebackers. That's their identity.

It's not great, but we're talking about can they beat the Saints and the Falcons? I'll put it under as a future or as a play this week? As a future. I'm just sort of curious. Let me get the latest odds here. The Falcons are plus 290 and the Bucs are plus 340. Where are the Saints?

Minus 150. It's like if the Falcons win this week, they're in the driver's seat. I just feel like there's value here. Desmond Ritter is playing this weekend, so good luck to the Falcons. I mean, if you sprinkle on both the Bucs and the Falcons, I think you might have a good chance to – you need one of the three teams or one of the two teams to get in. It's not the worst wager for it to sprinkle on a little bit there.

Yeah. I just am not buying the Saints. Hank just sent out some news, but since Elon Musk broke Twitter, I no longer can read uh thumbnails looks like yeah just some just some defensive injuries for the bucks that this is a pass uh both of these nfc south teams god bless if you're a fan of these teams we're having a thunderstorm and on thanksgiving day that's like a maybe a first shot in north it's wild interesting didn't expect that um all right what we got next

rams at cardinals jeff uh the cardinals are a team now that are get are laying points to sean mcveigh all of a sudden um yeah one and a half maybe uh any interest here i mean it would be the rams right or Or bust like definitely not Arizona, right? Yeah. Why, why are they laying? Why the Cardinals a favorite here? Unclear, man. I think people just are happy to see Kyler back. But this is still one of the worst defenses in the league. I'm trying to find mcveigh's yeah i i don't believe mcveigh has ever lost to the cardinals is that right uh he's this is one of those i'm or maybe they ended up losing at some point he won their first eight i'm curious maybe hank you

can help me out there with the last couple of years um yeah he owns the cardinals uh i think like you know obviously the cup injury is bad but uh the rams are getting kyron murt and kyron williams back this week he was one of the best running backs in the league in terms of efficiency when he was out there um the rams are just i like i think the rams are just better like the cardinals are fine but you don't want to take Kyler. Kyler tends to be better on the road and as a dog, not as a home favorite. The cup thing's tough, but Nakua, that worked for them earlier in the year. The Rams are going for it.

I think the Rams are not a bad team. The Rams are fighting for playoff berth. Arizona's fighting for nothing. Yeah, that's right. Worth noting, DVO arizona's 30th los angeles is 20th the big difference dvoa um the thing about the rams obviously is just injuries right just injuries and lack of depth and you worry about your staff gets hit wrong what's going to happen in this game no cooper cup right so um but the rams are i mean i get a

i get a a better coach, a team fighting for a playoff berth, getting a couple points, a veteran team. I'm in. I mean, Cooper is day-to-day right now, so he might play this weekend. Yeah. If he plays this weekend, if he plays – this number goes to a pick-em, right? Like we're not going to – this is the best we're going to get all week, I feel like.

Yeah, I definitely – I think he was underrated. He was being used, like, as much as any running back. So, I'm fine with this one, Jeff. I was – this one feels, like, kind of easy to me. But, you know, maybe too easy, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. All right.

Next up, sir. Yeah, McVay 12-2 against uh the cardinals that's pretty amazing thanks next we're getting to some better games here the browns at denver wow this line really moved uh denver is now favored by one and a half up to two and a half it just got steamed while we were talking um Interesting. Back to Cleveland. I like the Browns. I know, more December. I like the Browns.

Yeah, I think I might too. The Browns are viable. I mean, their roster is really good. Now, DTR is on the road, so it's a little bit different than playing at home. The Broncos are playing a little bit better. They absolutely are. But, you know, they're not that much better as a team, right?

They're slowly creeping a little bit better. They're 25th in DVOA, 15th in offense, 32nd on defense. Browns are 28th on offense. We know that. They're not great. But defensively, they're first. And they have the best player in maybe the NFL, Miles Garrett, right now. Again, I know we're going back to back a quarterback thing but almost

wagering on just the team like the browns team and the way they're coached right now they were playing right now is better than broncos they're not going to go in this game and think oh it's the broncos and we're on the road like i like this game a lot matt hmm interesting i i was open to this but i didn't feel strongly um broncos jeff on a little bit of a quiet go ahead they're a little bit on a quiet heater here they want four in a row um so it could be a good spot to bet against them but go ahead part of it too also there's just not a lot of i like after this in our slate of games so like this is a one i like more than the next maybe four interesting yeah no i could i could see that um denver's denver's turned things around but they've won some like very hairy games you know the bills game with the crazy penalty at the ends the vikings we mentioned last week, which we were on, and then they kind of pulled out

a weird sequence from Dobbs at the end. Strange game. Barely beat the Packers. The Chiefs laid an egg. I think everyone's... I sort of was doing this last week when we were taking them. I was like, the Broncos might kind of be back.

They've kind of turned a corner. They've figured things out. This is a really, really different defense that they're going to have to go against. They still are having trouble. They don't ever have an explosive play. They still turn the ball over a decent amount. Russ can still sort of panic back. Oh yeah. I, I think that this is not going to be, you know, the total in this game is 35 and so they're going to,

there's not going to be a lot of points in this one. This is how Cleveland is is gonna win games and i get that it's a road game for dtr but like they're not gonna ask him to do a whole lot they're just gonna try to run the ball and you know not not lose honestly so i'm fine with this especially now that we're getting that extra point um the two and a half this is the third time yeah this was at three even like i think that people are just on cleveland's um but the public will be on denver because they keep winning in prime time so it's got steam let me see here i see a there's one two available it looks like yeah so we take two i guess hold on i think i just a two and a half somewhere. Let me just double check that. Yeah.

So we're taking the Browns on the spot. So what'd you find that? I just looked at play. They believe in each other, right? And they're playing like that. So you can definitely see that. It was a two. I saw a two and a half when we started talking and now it's up to,

it's down to one and a half. So it seems like somebody, maybe we move the line, Jeff. Yeah. So we'll, we'll get one and a half when we started talking, and now it's down to one and a half. So it seems like somebody – maybe we move the line, Jeff. Yeah, so we've got one and a half there then. Okay. Next up, what do we got? Your Kansas City Chiefs laying a monster nine and a half points. You can get eight and a half to the Raiders. You will not commit to take the Raiders, so it's not going to happen.

No. This is obviously no bet. I mean, this is the spot you take the Raiders. Let's talk about the Chiefs very quickly since I didn't get a chance after the Monday football game. They've lost three games this year, Matt, scoring, what, 21? Excuse me, allowing 21, 21, and and 23 they used to never happen with Kansas City right they offensively right now and I've been trying to hold out positive hope that we're

going to change because last year we saw some of this we've seen in different years it's been a little off rhythm but Matt like there's just no rhythm to this offense like it's Travis Kelsey's just a tad step slower he's been beat up this year. He looked like he walked off with an ankle injury from this game, the knee injury in preseason. He's also 34, 33. He's a much older player now. Eventually those things add up. But there's just not a wide receiver that Pat Mahomes trusts at all.

And he's still throwing the ball open. Guys, he's not catching the ball either. It's just a mess right now in offense. And it's easy to make the case that once they start catching the ball they'll start scoring in the 30s again but who's matt who's the guarantee they're gonna start doing that haven't done it all season they're gonna start catching the ball now all of a sudden and then on top of that they've had some undisciplined play right penalties turnovers and the issue with that is for so many years you could cover up those bad plays because your offense could just come out with an explosive play and score they can't cover those up anymore

because they can't score right now so you turn the ball over the red zone with a bad interception by mahomes you turn the ball over the travis kelsey fumble you're not good enough to make up the difference anymore you drop a pass you can to make up the difference anymore. You drop a pass, you can't make up the difference anymore. So to me, look, the Chiefs is a big road favorite, or just in no ways or anyways. But they can flip the switch by catching the football. They're right there. This is the best defense.

Their defense is fantastic. They won the line of scrimmage in this game against the Eagles. Hard to do. The defense, I mean, eagles had 130 yards on offense that was it i think for the game um but you just can't bet either team in this game for those reasons yeah i think i i think i'm a bit more bullish on the chiefs actually than maybe you are um because i think that you know the broncos game you can kind of throw out but both the lions and eagles games they arguably should have won um the drops killed them but like drops are the the drops are so bad that it can sort of only get better and you mentioned kelsey like

when's the last time travis kelsey had a had a killer red zone fumble like that just doesn't happen that often and no it doesn't you know it was just sort of a fluky win from Philly. Credit to them. Really tough spot. We were obviously on the Chiefs, especially with, you know, the Andy Reid bye thing. But, you know, the Chiefs now, like they get a little bit of a breather.

And I think that they're going to use the next couple of weeks to just kind of figure things out. And like, maybe, you know, this time, like we haven't seen really McCccall hardman get super integrated again and that's not like a huge difference but like would mccall hardman have caught that deep ball like maybe you know what i mean like is mvs going to drop that deep ball again like probably not that yeah but hardman doesn't it's it's the mvs thing like he did this in green bay too that's the problem like we matt i get you what you're saying but i've said this too for the last 12 weeks and they keep doing it though yeah no i i agree and i think you know there's it's also the thing that i think we have to we have to just say

is like you can't win every single game every single year and i think that's honestly where the chiefs expectations are it's just sort of like they they're the Chiefs. It's Mahomes. He's going to win. Like it's hard to sort of rebuild that momentum of the year after year, after winning the Superbowl with a coach who just like wins every week. Like not every week is going to feel, you know, like the biggest game of all time to them. Like they've, they've had too much success.

Like this happens. So I don't think that, I don't think I'm super worried about them. We're not taking them either, obviously, but I think they still win the AFC. I'm not changing my opinion on that. Yeah, exactly. Like, I think I feel more encouraged by this loss than I, than I expected. I don't know how to explain what I'm feeling, but I think that Kansas city's fine.

It's very obvious to point to the drops. Like, I think some of these, I like the justin watson experiment might be over like i think you know like there's some of these things that are a little bit fixable that you know and pacheco's coming on like i feel like they're going to turn it around um but whatever enough about the chiefs there i will say the great teaser candidate this week if you want to like latch on some thanksgiving ones into there it's like they're not losing this game um all right buffalo and and the aforementioned eagles in possibly the game of the week here um seeing three although this was at three and a half all week uh interesting now it's just three so the money did come enough on the bills to to bump

that one down i'm curious it sounds like you don't want to do this one, but I'm curious what you think. Okay. So we talk about the bills every year in the same way. Go to FTN Bets. Look up DVOA. Go to the far right. Variance, right? So variance means how different are you week to week, right? You know, for example, Philly is seven. For example, Philly is seven.

The Chargers are two because the Chargers are the same team each week. The same team that's tied with three minutes left in every game. A lot of the reliable teams, the winning teams, tend to have a pretty good variance. Even the bad, as I mentioned, the Chargers we can laugh about. They're just the same crummy team each week, right? For example, Carolina, by the way, number one in in variance they just suck each and every week right um for years now buffalo has been 32 and they're there again which means that they're a roller coaster each and every week what are you getting from buffalo you're getting good bad

terrible amazing you know sideline screaming match hugging on the screen on the sidelines josh allen good josh allen bad josh allen fumbles no fumbles matt you to me you can't wager on their games very often for this reason they either win and blow teams out or lose by a big margin. Those are sort of like they don't play a lot of close football games. Philly is off a short week, a very physical week. I mean, I think you could certainly make a case for taking Buffalo plus the three points with Philly off that game in Kansas City.

But I can't just right now, without knowing what Buffalo team's going to show up, you can't put your money in them, in my opinion. Yeah, that's tough. If it was three and a half, I would really be pushing for Buffalo because yeah, it's like Philly, Philly is, it's a really tough assignment to, to come back against, you know, such an emotional road, win really tough defense to now go and turn around and play this Buffalo team that is really playing for a lot more than Philly is at the moment um the thing with Buffalo is like if you they've had

just you mentioned it just like a crazy weird year um and like you know if the the 12 men on the field thing doesn't happen they've had so many fluky weird turnovers um they have a really like the analytics love buffalo in terms of their offense like despite the fact that they switched offensive coordinators like i will say too i don't think they're getting a ton of credit for what they did last week because they beat the jets right they they smoked the jets 32-6 after they fire the kendorsey but like this jets defense like i think that maybe they did figure something out. Like we have to, the Jets defense beat Philly. Like this is a real defense that was still trying really hard.

And then Zach Wilson, you know, deflated them. And this is what Buffalo does. They murder bad teams. So I think that Buffalo, you're kind of catching them at their absolute low in value. And maybe like the last three years like buffalo is just one of those teams everyone seems to love and philly is just this team they're they're honestly at their highest value right now like everyone's just like well they're the best

team they beat the chiefs and this is usually the kind of spot where you want to jump in and at three and a half like they were the play at three it's really tough because now they essentially feels like they kind of just have to win um for us to not push this so i i'm finally an off like if i see a three and a half sometime before this recording ends i might nominate it again but i don't know i think buffalo is probably the side here oh if i were to pick a side it would be buffalo i don't trust that side though that's my that's my personal problem with this yeah fair enough um all right last two games Sunday night the Ravens uh road favorites at the Chargers this was four it's three and a half now no way no chance yeah no I think the Chargers yeah

Chargers would be the same thing Chargers would be my pick here I liked it at four better but no chance the charge I think Baltimore is is a little high on their own supply right now, like just a little bit too – everyone's a little too hot on them, but they get an extra break. The Chargers are the Chargers. We'll see. This could be the fire. It's going to be time.

Three minutes left as it always is. Yep. Yeah. You don't love Lamar. He's a big favorite here. But pass for us, and then we're definitely passing on Josh Dobbs, the three-point favorite on Monday night. No jibs.

Talk about variance, those two games. I think I guess I would pick the Bears, but that's a super hard pass. I feel like we have a solid five here, Matt. Can I read them back to you? Please. San Francisco minus seven angles plus two and a half houston plus two rams plus a point a half and the browns plus a point a half are you are you good with those five i love these man we got great numbers on all of them too

like they all sort of bounced in our favor that's the benefit of typically doing this on on wednesday you know this might be different on Friday because of the games this week. We had to do that. And so, that's our five. I'm going to put it

in the Vaulted app. You guys can check that out. We're going to take a break. We'll be right back with our Vaulted predictions and our pool and everything that has to do

with that wonderful partner of ours. We'll be back in a second. All right, we're back on the podcast. is me jeff schwartz is matt ford if you're on twitter youtube watching we've made it past the break if you're listening to the podcast you just heard me read a wonderful ad the vaulted app vltd

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All right, Matt. Let's talk through a lot of ones we like here. So the first one that sticks out at me here is matt mike evans will have more receiving yards and jonathan taylor will have rushing yards i feel like mike evans the the goal of the team this year at times is to get mike evans stats um and kind of put him in that conversation we talked about a lot with um with kind of hall of fame and he's baker mayfield's number one target i think i would gladly take Mike Evans. Jonathan Taylor has had 69 yards, 47, 95, 75, 19, 18.

Mike Evans has got more than that, right? I love that one. Sneaky. Really good call there. Evans has been great this season. You're right. He is in the Hall of Fame contention somehow. Will levels of more total touchdowns than Bryce Young?

Agree. Just fade Bryce Young. Every week you fade Bryce Young. Disaster. Let's see here. Titans will score more than 20.5 points against the Panthers. I think I would agree with that. Panthers, yeah, just like there's a pick six potential here.

Fumble potential for Bryce Young. Get a defensive score. potential here fumble fumble potential for Bryce Young get a defensive score um I I hate doing this but the two Chiefs ones there's three Chiefs ones are pretty pretty juicy right Chiefs will cover nine and a half you just disagree you just the Chiefs never cover these games right Kelsey will have more receiving targets than Devontae Adams this This one's fun. So is this like a get-back-to-Travis-Kelsey game for the Chiefs? Or will it be sort of some of the same and Devontae Adams will end up being the big target in this game? What do you think?

I was just looking this up because last year – wasn't last year a game where he had like a four touchdown game against yes i think so he went for four touchdowns against the raiders uh on october 10 22 um and then hardly did anything against them in the second matchup i davante's been kind of up and down too. So I feel like they're not going to use Kelsey much if they don't have to. I feel like the Chiefs are just trying to conserve, like save all their bullets, where the Raiders would love to win this game. So I think I would lean on the Adams side on this one.

Okay. And then Patrick Mahomes will have more than one and a half total touchdown against the Raiders. I'm going to say yes on that. I'm going to agree with that. I think that Mahomes will have more than one and a half total touchdowns against the Raiders. I'm going to say yes on that. I'm going to agree with that. I think that Mahomes will bounce back and the receivers will catch the ball this weekend. What do you think?

I think so. I think so. It's a safe bet. Okay. Here's my last favorite one. You ready? Actually, I have two more ones I like. The final game, Monday Night Football.

Justin Fields will have more than 56.5 rushing yards. Always take Justin Fields' overs. So I'd agree. That's what he does. He rushes the football. And then DJ Moore will have more receiving yards than Jordan Addison. I just would disagree with that. I think Jordan Addison will have more than him.

At home, in the dome. So that's our Vaulted for the week. Go to the Vaulted app. Check out the predictions. Join the pool. So that's our vaulted for the week. Go to the vaulted app. Check out the predictions. Join the pool. Free cash prizes. Enjoy your Thanksgiving, everyone. We will be back on Monday to recap all the NFL action for the last couple of days.

NFL action Thursday, Friday, Saturday through Thursday, Friday, Sunday. College football, obviously, all weekend as well, Matt. And, yeah, have a good weekend everyone have a good Thanksgiving you too family we'll talk to you guys next week take care everybody happy turkey buddy see ya