Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 13

Episode Date: December 1, 2023

Geoff and Matt discuss all the games on the week 13 slate including the NFC showdown between the Niners and Eagles. They end the episode with another rendition of Baby Corner.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

🎵 It's December 1st. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smartly. We're live on YouTube, and we're on your podcast platform of choice. Thank you for joining us as we preview week 13 of the National Football League. We're brought to you by Vaulted, home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 of cash prizes with $5,000 allocated to my final pool this season, which will be the day of the big game.

That's vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. As you guys know by now, I have my own pool in Vaulted each and every week. It's 20 questions.

You agree or disagree you can assign a a one to ten point confidence level in said prediction it is free to enter the winner gets 400 second place 75 third place 25 and if you beat me in a given week you're entered into the big game pool where you can win up to five thousand dollars that's v l t e d remember to find my pool that's jeff with the g g e o f f uh as we do on fridays i'm here with matt ford matt has a young child everyone so those who have young children you are in this with him as well uh matt's it's surviving advance every day for matt it's instant blade tournament surviving advance day by day uh you are you're getting there buddy the day that i get six uninterrupted hours of sleep will be the day

we cut the nets down brother one day at a time oh man oh that's so good so great we were two or three last week uh 34 22 and four on the season as we do each and every week we'll go over all the games left to play we will choose our five favorites of the week and then we'll go over a vaulted pool at the end of the show um i'm if you're watching this on on youtube or on twitter i am haggard right now. I am disheveled because Oregon plays Washington tonight. It's a nine-point favorite for the Pac-12 championship. Washington's our bitter rival. And, Matt, this game was three points.

Washington favored by three at home on October 14th. It's now Oregon by nine in the Pac-12 championship game, neutral side in Vegas. I like Oregon way too much. It is not good how much I'd like us to win this game tonight. Oh, boy. Make the case. Oh, Oregon's just better.

It's like that simple. Oregon's peaking right now and Washington's not. The thought is, well, Washington just has to get back to what they were doing nine weeks ago. All right. I mean, sure. But, you know know they're completing the last seven games right now their quarterbacks complete 59 of passes it was 75 the first five

weeks of the season washington's 89th on third down 127th attack of success rate um and the vegas is telling you right when vegas tells you matt there's a 12 point swing in this game in eight weeks they're giving you a sign they're telling you what they think and uh we often do that in the nfl side where we see oh a line that doesn't seem right we'll talk about eagles 49ers like that's a line where it's like wait that's too good to be true right i mean eagles are getting three points at home how dare and it's like well maybe there's a reason why uh the line is what it is so let's get into the nfl um there is usual some putrid some putrid things happening in the national football league um where would you like to start sir

well can we reveal what what's our record as it stands we've had two bad weeks in a row maybe three 34 22 and four so we're at 56 i believe okay so we're still in the green we're still feeling good on the season this is what happens like in the middle of the season when you're you know you have to go through these titans colts games like it's a slog and you just got to get to that three and two every week we had that hot start as a little bit of pad and i feel i feel weirdly okay about this week. But, you know, it's just about just keeping pace. This week is great because there are some games that just sort of go right back to the core of what we're good at.

And I'm excited to wager on these games with you this week. Where would you like to start with? Let's start with, since we missed the Thursday game game which was a really fun game this week for once let's start with the disgusting Chargers at the more disgusting Patriots uh five and a half is the number yeah I mean we just saved some time right the Chargers aren't beating anyone by six so you can pass on that no the number is five and a half four and a half at some places consensus five and a half, four and a half at some places. Consensus five and a half. The thing about this game is like every Chargers game is three points with three minutes left in either direction, right? Like it always is that way.

New England with a zappy something might play this week. The total has been hammered from 41 and a half down to 40. So maybe a point under in this game i think it's just a complete stay away game and um we just move on to another game yeah that seems good this could be the like oh we flew across the country we slept through the first half we lost to the patriots who just lost to tommy dev, and then we finally fire Brandon Staley. It feels like this could be the week. This is that kind of game where favored by six,

the Chargers are never favored by six, unless Justin Empty Calories Herbert can rally his group to a win, which would be very uncharacteristic. You're just going to just let that one just roll off your back. All right, you've got bigger Oregon things on your mind today. I'm not worried. The Herbert discourse is so dumb just just give him just give him a better coach like give him a better coach and let's talk about right and everyone's wrong i agree um all right let's talk about uh lion saints uh tricky teams to to to

handicap on both sides here um latest line i see this moved up to four and a half today yeah the lions are laying four and a half on a very banged up saints team um but it's hard to trust the lions right now right yeah and all the public's gonna be in the lions too i feel like in this game um this is a spot i think we traditionally like you know with uh with with the home dog in this spot getting getting all the public on the lions no one trusting the saints Saints. But, like, how do we bet on Derek Connell, man? It's just suck it up and bet on a game. The Saints' defense is 13th in DVOA, so they're good on defense. If they just don't turn the ball over on offense,

they'll probably move the ball okay on the Lions. The Lions have more rest than New Orleans does. New Orleans has to win this game to sort of get back in the NFC South picture. I don't know, man. I don't like it. Yeah, me neither. I mean, the last really since the middle of October here, the Lions have close wins against the Chargers and Bears.

They got blown out by the Ravens. Their last, like, really good – they've had such a light schedule now looking back on it, really. I mean, they beat the Chiefs, obviously. Lost to Seattle. Beat the Falcons, the Packers, the Panthers, the Bucks, the Raiders, the Chargers. Dude, they've beaten only one team with a winning record. That was the Chiefs week one. The Lions have. Yeah. It's like same with Dallas. It's like this could be a bit of a paper tiger, but the Saints are so banged up that I think it's too hard to take them.

I don't think we know Chris Olave's latest. I haven't seen anything on him today. Maybe he practiced. But he was in the concussion protocol. Thomas is out. Shahid's banged up. It's like if they don't have any receivers, it's going to be hard to keep pace with this Detroit team.

So, look, betting Dennis Allen to Derek Carr is my least favorite thing. So, I'm happy to pass this. But if we're desperate, I guess I'd consider it. We can pass this. It's fine. Speaking of things we have to pass this but if we're like desperate we can pass this i consider it we could pass this all right speaking of things we have to pass do not dare to talk spreading betting this this boil do we have to uh we have to get two points against it i mean he's getting two points not even two and a half anymore against against Atlanta in the Meadowlands, Jeff. Just make your terrible case, and then we can discuss it. I mean, it's Desmond Ritter on the road in New York. He's going to throw a pick six?

I just – Do you mean like the Hail Mary Tim Boyle throw that was returned for a touchdown? Okay. Atlanta is 26th in DVOA right now. Jets are 27th. They're fourth on defense. Falcons are 23rd on offense and 27th on defense. They're not a good football team.

And they're on the road. They're 28th in special teams. They're on the road laying two points with Desmond Ritter at the Jets. This is a game I thought we always wager on. Jeff, if we, if we take Tim Boyle here, it will be the worst quarterback we've ever been on in our life. Like there are, there are multiple college quarterbacks. I'd rather have than Tim Boyle. This guy is like,

this guy was terrible in college. We've talked about this every week. And now it's, I think, look, I get that the Aaron Rogers thing. Like, I think that he dropped that news. You know, they opened the practice window just so that they would not try to throw this game away. Essentially.

I think they're just basically saying like, we're not tanking, but Atlanta, like, I don't know. Atlanta is terrible, but I just, I can't,

I just can't get, it's not like he's getting seven points. He's getting two points. Like that's how little we trust Atlantalanta i just i don't think we're getting that much of an edge here and this is to try this uh jets defense just hasn't been dominant the last we could we could pass that's fine i'm just saying that i just think that jets are probably the right spot to be in we could pass that's fine here's what i I'm – if we take this game, Jeff, let me just fast forward to Sunday at like 11.04 Pacific time. A complete blue metal to boil.

That'll just fly through. I know. That'll just teleport from Charlotte to L.A. where I'll just be like, yeah, I know. We shouldn't have done that. I know. I know. I know.

I'm saving us a big headache. All right. Fine. But I'm going to saving. I'm saving as a big headache. All right. Fine. But I'm going to make a pretty ugly case in a minute here. But first, I think we have one we might agree on finally, which is the Pittsburgh Steelers are laying five and a half or maybe even six now. There's sixes out there.

Yeah, six. I actually might see a six and a half. Oh, I see six and a half. Surfer has a six and a half. Oh, I see six and a half. Serka has a six and a half. Oh, give me that all day. All right. So the Cardinals plus six and a half in Pittsburgh. It's definitely one of our five.

Go ahead and make the case. Steelers is a home favorite. Get out of here. No chance. Yeah. No chance. Yeah, this is where we always – They barely beat the Browns. Or Bengals last weekend. Yeah. No, no chance. Yeah. No chance. Yeah. This is where we always –

They barely beat the Bengals. Or Bengals last weekend. Yeah. No. No chance. Yeah. This is – Go ahead.

Sorry. We keep talking over each other. The Cardinals, this is where you want to take them, and this is where you want to fade the Steelers, right? The Steelers, off of a win, as a big favorite at home, they always seem to fall on their faces on this in this spot the Cardinals I think are getting a little bit undervalued after getting that little bump from Kyler everyone's like ah they're terrible whatever um but he's

Kyler's much better as a as a road dog like he's his splits are unbelievable as a road dog so I actually I think this is like a fun little money line play just a little bit because I think that this could this could end up being one of those games where – Oh, a sprinkle? For sure. Leaps through the game. Yeah.

Oh, a sprinkle? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. I mean – As soon as I saw this one, I knew it was one of our five. Oh, it's – absolutely. This is – it's what we always do in this situation.

We fade the Steelers as favorites, take them as underdogs. Everyone's out in Arizona. Look, they're 2-10, right? They're not great. But Colin Murray back makes him a little bit different in offense. They just got blown out by the Rams. They're going to show some pride. They played hard this season.

And Pittsburgh is just ho-hum, man. They barely beat the backup Bengals last weekend with Jake Brown. Like, give me the Cardinals. But 6-1⁄2, too? Yes. I love it. Yeah, there are some of these where it just becomes a little bit of a pattern for us uh this was this was certainly one of them um can't believe we're getting six and a

half that's crazy i think we've recorded this at the right time um all right cool one down uh this is this is the one jeff i don't know if we're gonna i don't know if we're gonna get no no no no because i already gave him as a best bet on the Bear podcast. Oh, really? All right. So we're on different sides here. All right. So Tampa Bay is like five and a half to the Panthers at home.

It's five on draft games now. It's five on draft games now. Okay. Well, my case is the Panthers suck. And there's no thing that's like this dead cat coaches bounce. I looked this up. I'm going to pull up the research right now. I had a researcher at Fox Sports look this up for me.

Do you remember last week we were talking about the Panthers and Titans and we didn't take the Titans? And you're like, man, we should just fade the Panthers like you said. So 35 teams have fired their head coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-19 straight up and 20-16 against the spread. So you're not making any money if you're wager on those teams blindly. The Panthers, Matt, are really bad. Like, they're just freaking awful.

And I'm not sure that firing Frank Reich is going to change any of that. Tampa Bay is 21st and TV are not great. They're middle of the road on offense and on defense. But they have something to play for still, right? Like they're still playing for the outside chance to be in a playoff situation. The Panthers have nothing to play for. They're not in the playoffs. They don't even get their own draft pick.

There's nothing for them to play for. Now, Tampa Bay has not played terribly well lately, which I totally understand that. They've lost two in a row. But don't you just see the Tampa defense and Mike Evans? Tampa has better football players too. I just don't. I think the Panthers get their asses kicked.

We don't have to take this. It's a best bet on another show if you don't like it because we don't do that very often if we both don't like something. But I just don't know. If the argument for the Panthers is they have a new coach, I don't really buy that as a reason to take them in this spot. No, I agree with that. The argument for me is more, I think Tampa started the season 3-1,

now 4-7, and they just can't seem to get out of their own way. That's part of it, but honestly, Baker Mayfield leaving the last couple of games, seemingly banged up the 49ers game, but really last week, the Colts, like he just doesn't seem right with the ankle. So it was mainly just a,

like, this is a survival game for Tampa, if anything, but less like a, Hey, we have to, you know, what a great chance to bet on the,

the Panthers interim coach. Like, no, I don't even know who they ended up going with um so i i don't if if you feel really strongly about the five for for tampa i would i would listen um well no i mean i i i do like it here's the thing too uh carolina back on the road two straight weeks they lost to seven the titans it wasn't even a close game is tampa tampa and tennessee feel very similar right i just think that the the panthers are just dead men walking right now so yeah they are a dead team

i do think though like at some point there's some things that that carolina could do like how they like for the the running back situation is an interesting thing it's like they gave all this money to sanders it felt like frank reich was like trying to give him the ball a lot hubbard's obviously better and there's like all these metrics about bryce young have you seen these that are like he's accurate the receivers are just never open like it does feel like they're a tweak away from being like not the worst people it feels like people are trying to be are trying to be nice to bryce young but yeah this is yeah no one's going to hear us talk about the Panthers. All right, let's go to the next game then. Well, they're really here to hear us talk about the Tennessee Titans

and the Indianapolis Colts. You don't have to – we don't talk about it. We just take the Tennessee Titans and just be done with it. Yeah, they're getting a point still at home. So, go ahead. I mean, the Ray Bulls are home underdog. It's the same 12-5 againsts are under the home underdog like it's just it's the same 12 and 5 against the spread as a home underdog um the colts have no jonathan taylor and they've

garnered mention like you know the times aren't great i'm gonna be wrong here but like ray bulls underdog is a thing you just do you just take them like just you just be done with it colts defense is not half bad though this is a is a low-scoring game, I feel like. But Gardner Minshew with no Jonathan Taylor and on the road. I think Vrabel, you just auto-bet Vrabel in this spot, man. We always do this. This is what we always do. Vrabel is a home dog. Even if it's a short home dog, I don't care.

I love it. I think, too, the Colts have overachieved this season. And I think they're going to be one of these teams, I think, that fade down the stretch a bit Minshew and his career. He's he's he's five and 15 in his last 20 starts, but they've been hot for a while. So I just, I just feel like that's coming down. It's the Colts are going to just sort of fall on their faces at some point.

This is the right week, Tennessee. Everyone's out on them. I don't understand like who's betting the colts here um which is a little bit strange that this line just like hasn't moved because it just feels like everybody who does this as often as we do just auto just auto takes the points without with the titans um they're getting 82 of the money and so this is a game that's gonna move on sunday yeah it could be and it'll shift back and sunday will be like times affair by one or two yeah yeah it's also just not a widely bad game um this is not like a fun public game no uh okay well titans are an easy one it's just you just you got to do it um i think i think they're gonna end up closing the season decently

by the way they're just they're just a team up closing the season decently, by the way. They're just a team that has too much dignity to just sort of fade away. A team without any dignity whatsoever is my Washington Commanders, who are getting nine and a half points at home to the Dolphins. This line has moved a bunch this week. All the pros like the Commanders. I don't think I can get there but i'm uh i'm curious if you have a side here i'm not getting there either buddy so yeah i'm just not doing i

mean miami look we've talked about this all season they have dominated bad football teams and washington right now reports this week that ron rivera is going to be fired no surprise obviously i would just get it done with and let let eric be enemy coach for a month um and uh the dolphins defense we've mentioned this many times now, their defense has been much better with Jalen Ramsey. Since he's been in the lineup, they've allowed 17 points, 14 points, 13 points, and 13 points. Like, they're just much better.

What's Washington doing this game? We have some props on what – like, I think Dotson might get over this week as receiving reception total. I think he needs five more catches somewhere around there. So I – no, I have nothing on this game. I think the side is the commanders or nothing. But that's all I'm doing. That's all I'm thinking of this game.

Yeah. I think that the way to play this game is to take every single – and there's one of them in the vaulted pool this week, take every single Tyree kill over. You can think of, this is one of those games where they're just going to, he's going to go crazy. Washington's defense.

They did just switch their coordinator, which may actually, which undoubtedly helped them a bit. They're giving up the second most yards per attempt in the league. Almost, almost eight yards of a cat or an attempt, excuse me, They're giving up the second most yards per attempt in the league. Wow. Almost eight yards of an attempt right in front of the Bengals, so I wouldn't have guessed it would be there. And this is just one of those, like the case for Washington is like,

oh, Ron Rivera is a home dog. Ron Rivera with extended rest. It's like the Dolphins also have extended rest. They played on Friday. They looked fine. I think that Tyreek Hill's been banged up. Hopefully he's feeling a bit better. Washington is like, Washington has had every single opportunity

to turn things around this season, and they just haven't. And I think you're right. I think the fact that Rivera is still in there, I think maybe speaks to the fact that the players aren't dying for Eric Bien-Ami to be the head coach, I think, is how I'm reading that situation. I've heard some things from the Washington reporters that are basically like, yeah, they're kind of hoping that Rivera actually becomes more of a leader now, but he's going to end up being really involved with the defense

now. So really interesting situation playing out there because this would be the obvious, like, yeah, just give the enemy the chance. But I think the ownership is afraid he's going to succeed, actually. So just a mess in Washington. Everyone thinks that it's a smart play to take them, but I would very, very delicately say to be cautious taking Sam Howell here against a team that could honestly, this could be another Dolphins 70-pointer. Oh, yeah.

It's possible. All right, enough of these bad teams. This is a fun game here. The revitalized Denver Broncos are going to Houston. Houston is only laying three points now. Are you with me that we should take the Texans here? Yes, absolutely. The Broncos have won five games in a row.

They are playing better football. And they have beaten some decent teams. They beat the Bills. They beat the Chiefs. But this is sort of a spot to buy low on Houston who just lost to Jacksonville and then to sell sort of the high Broncos stock, right? So it's kind of a situation

where both those things are happening right now. In this kind of, in the same Houston, right? 12th on DVOA, 9th on offense, 20th on defense. And the Broncos are 22nd. They're 32nd on defense still. So they're better on defense, but still 32nd. So to me, it's a bounce back spot for Denver, as you mean for the Texans here,

with everyone sort of on Denver because they're playing better football. And we get three right now, we're recording. So I like Houston minus three. I love it. This was a two and a half all week. We recorded this at the right time. I think the public's faith in Denver. You mean it was three and a half all week?

Yes, three and a half, excuse me. You said two and a half. I was going to say two and a half would be worse. Yeah, thanks. The Broncos are this team said 2.5. I was going to say 2.5 would be worse. Yeah, thanks. The Broncos are this team that the public has just placed their faith in. I think you mentioned the nice wins that they did have. But reminder, they played the Chiefs win. Mahomes had the flu.

The Bills game, they were coming off a buy, and it was one of the craziest games of the season and one of the luckiest wins. They should have lost, yeah. Yeah, they should. The Vikings game was a crazy game with all those turnovers and just weird stuff happening. Josh Dobbs, that one might

not look as good in a week or two. Then last week, the Browns were just totally banged up. We were on the wrong side of that one. I just think Houston is for some reason, I feel like Vegas might be a little bit behind on Houston. It seems like every week we're getting a little bit of extra value with them. It's like they don't trust their defense or something. I just feel like Vegas might be a little bit behind on Houston like it seems like every week we're getting a little bit of extra value with them it's like they don't trust their defense

or something um and I just feel like Denver is this public team that everyone's like oh they're back like they're just gonna they're just gonna go into the playoffs now um and yeah I just I don't know I think this is a really nice spot to take Houston um so yeah all right we're we're in agreement on the ones we like this week, which is probably a bad sign. Yes and no. This next game, though, we've got to talk this one over, Matt, because I am. Let's do it, man.

Game of the week. San Francisco, everyone's confused by this one. They are laying two and a half, and I'm actually seeing some threes now against Philly. I think it's all three across the board now so i'm curious if that changes your opinion on this because it does feel like it doesn't is the difference it doesn't i look um this is everyone's play this week and it feels way too i think it is i'm not taking eagles plus three matt so put it like that i'm not making

a case to the eagles here. So throw that out. I'm not going to do that. The Eagles have played the Cowboys, Bi-Week, Chiefs, Monday Night Football, Bills, overtime. They played a lot of football the last two weeks. I think they played, I think I saw something where they played 30, 40, 50 snaps more on defense than the Niners have played the last couple of weeks. Niners are off for a longer break.

They played Thanksgiving. And, like, the Niners are, like, out for weeks. Niners are off for a longer break. They played Thanksgiving. And, like, the Niners are, like, out for blood this game. Like, they want to win. Like, this is their Super Bowl. They want to win this game. I would imagine they spent all offseason thinking about this game, preparing for this game. I mean, we don't bet first half, but, like,

Niner first half money line would be my favorite bet maybe of the weekend. They come out fast, come out strong. Can the Eagles emotionally and physically play the same game they played the last three weeks? Knowing, by the way, I think they play Dallas the next week, right? So, like, it's just a lot. It's a lot each week, and the Niners are fresher. They need to win this game.

The Eagles don't. The Eagles are two games up on the Niners, right? If they lose this game, it's one game. But this is – again, Eagles went out. They're in. Niners have some games they can probably lose. So I just – I mean, maybe three is not the best number. We're not getting the best number.

Maybe there's some buyback between now and Sunday on the Eagles. I'm trying to see if there's any three-and-a-halfs, two-and-a-halfs out there. I don't think there are, so we can't get the two-and-a-half here. Yeah, it's – oh. I see one. Fanto has a fando has a two and a half juiced a little bit yeah um but i mean fando's a two and a half i'll take it right now but i i think niners minus two and a half is at least a maybe um if not just outright yes yeah i mean i think two and a half is is probably a 49ers play it's ugly but this is this is what you would call a schedule loss for philly um like you said this this matters a lot more to the niners this would be the chance to to theoretically gain some ground two and a half

those are two and.5 minus 18. I'll eat juice on that one. Yeah, I think that's fine. I mean, basically, like, the case is, you know, Lane Johnson probably playing but banged up. Yeah, he'll play. Conversely, on the other end, like, the 49ers are as healthy as they get. And when they are this healthy, when Debo's healthy, when Trent Williams is healthy, when Kittle as healthy as they get and when they are this healthy when Debo's

healthy when Trent Williams is healthy when Kittle's healthy um they win games and I feel like you know everybody's your Philly has has been it's really really hard to go against Philly but this is this is why um this is I don't know the books that I've heard you know the saying is like the books aren't your friends the books aren't just giving away Philly plus three because they're trying to they're trying to give you a break and give you the best team as a home dog this just is one of those like you just have to sort of listen to what the books are saying every single public better is going to take Philly here of course they are it are. Of course there's a part of us that's like, it's just Philly at home. Like, let's just get the points.

I don't feel that way at all. I don't feel that way at all for this game. I would not bet Philly, even at plus three. They keep winning close games, which, again, eventually falters, right? There's a quality of winning close games. Nothing wrong with that. But eventually that falters, Matt. And, like, this is the game where it falters.

The Eagles don't need this win as much as the Niners do. Yeah, I agree with that. They still have two games up. And you mentioned the Dallas game next week, which I don't think Philly is. I think Philly is disciplined enough not to have a look-ahead spot. But they can drop two games in a row here. That's going to be a huge, huge game for Dallas. So tough one for Philly.

So are we putting this through? I have it on the high maybe list so far. Okay. So let's see what we've got. So we have Arizona, Tennessee, Houston. There's not a lot of games I like left. So there's not a lot of games left. So it's on a high maybe.

What do you have next here? All right, next up we have the last game of the late window, which is the Browns going to the Rams. Is it Joe Flacco? Is that official? I don't know, but, I mean, Rams minus 3.5 feels nice, right? Am I crazy? No, you're definitely not crazy.

I mean, look, the thing we've seen the last couple of weeks is that there was there was a push at the start of the season with some of these backup quarterbacks that are playing good football and we're seeing it now like it's this is why guys are backups right this is why josh jobs has been a backup this is why you know pj walker dorian thompson robinson are backups like it's starting to show now jake browning right not that he played great at any time this season but like it's showing that like okay these are backup quarterbacks this is why we're seeing you know teams start to to lose a lot of games. They're playing backups. And the Browns, look, their defense probably can have their way with the Rams, but a healthy Stafford, a healthy cup, a healthy running game. The Rams are still playing for something.

They're 5-6 right now. So are the Browns, by the way. They're playing for a playoff spot. But, I mean, Joe Flacco off the bench, on the road, like, man, I like the Rams here, man i i'm i like the rams here man i do too and i think that the look the miles garrett injury even if he's playing and like everything's fine um if he's limited at all we're talking about one of the best what five players in the league honestly i mean any compromise to him is so huge and we're talking

about another quarterback who's like you mentioned um the rams also have this tendency to start games really hot like if you look that's some of the the good nuggets this week from my friend eban abrams at action network they start games they're much better in the first half than the second half so if the browns were to start a little bit slow with Flacco, which they tend to do, by the way, their defense isn't able to bail them out. And then they have to like come back on the road. Like, I just, I don't see it.

This feels like another, that just based on the health of the Browns, that this could be a, just a game that they just can't really get up for, especially after like, you know, such a disappointing one last week so i i think the rams are a pretty smart play here at three and a half it's a little bit scary but also it it still doesn't feel to me like the rams are getting enough credit for the season that they're

having i feel like everyone's just a little bit afraid to bet on them for whatever reason um and i think like there's the fact that like cup and and akua like just haven't popped off lately like i think that people just aren't really buying in their offense anymore so i think we're getting them in a pretty good spot um and i think this is one where we could we could look up and be like wait we're getting three and a half points against joe flacco like let's go like this is the easiest one of the week so and i feel fine with this and then we're getting a good number now because i think it's starting to creep to four so we're getting a good number now because I think it's starting to creep to four. So we're getting a good number as we're talking right now.

I think DraftKings just hit a four. So we're seeing some fours now too. So we're getting the best of the number, I think, unless there's some Browns by back at some point. But if Flacco's answer started, there definitely won't be. All right, let's get to Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football. I don't know how much we're going to have on these games, but let's go over them anyways. the something your kansas city chiefs i'm i was intrigued to see if you were gonna

be interested in the chiefs okay so they're like six oh the chiefs yeah oh um well this is just a just put them in a teaser right and be done with it come with this situation um i'm surprised they didn't make this teaser proof by the way and put, and put it at like eight, you know? I mean, I guess you get it down to two. It's not teaser-proof then, but something a little bit better than six because six makes it a pick-em, basically, right? So I guess it would have to be like nine and a half to be teaser-proof, essentially, and that's maybe a lot in this situation.

Packers are playing better. Chiefs, look, if Rasheed Rice catches the football every game, their offense goes back to what it's been. No. They don't cover these games often, right? We talk about this all the time. I don't like betting the other side of a Chiefs game

where they're getting points. Like the Packers plus six, I don't like doing that because then I have to root for the Chiefs to win between one and five points, which I absolutely hate. We did this for the Chargers game earlier this season for the Chargers plus six in the spot. You like Kansas City, though? I was curious if you would. Mainly, you know, the Chiefs apologists out there were all doing the,

like, the Chiefs are back. Like, look how they did in the second half against the Raiders. They were down. I was among those who bet the Chiefs live last week. They had only, like, plus 125 when they were down 14 points the books have figured that out um but i just look the green bay is you're catching them at like sort of the peak of their value i think a lot of people are sort of like they're back like look their their offense is looking good and you know they've they've the lions win was a nice win

uh the rams win looking back is a nice win um but they i i just think that they're a little over inflated uh still questions about the health of their backfields uh their their young receivers are coming together but it just feels like they're gonna run into i feel like jordan loves running into a buzzsaw this week personally oh i think that's i think it's certainly the case and there's probably some weather i think there's some snow in the forecast so it So it just feels like one of those games where if you would come out and been like, the Chiefs, they're back. They're going to steamroll this team. Like, we should, you know, screw the trends.

Like, I would have been intrigued. It's not the right play. You never take the Chiefs as road favorites of more than three. It's like the worst trend out there. So it's probably a pass. But I was just curious if you were on the Chiefs. Yeah, no. I mean, because I think if you look, we have one spot left essentially in this in this i mean the niners minus two and a half i think it's a better play than the chiefs like that's kind of

where i'm at right now with that you know with our five so um we have uh we have one more game money night football i don't think we'll have any thoughts on this one, but what's the, what's the, Jake Browning is getting eight and a half points going to Jacksonville. I just, I don't know what to do with this Bengals team. I mean, the play would be Cincinnati. The pros are all over it, but I don't know. I just, this does feel like a Jacksonville fall on their face spot, but they're not going to lose. So I don't know. I mean, just, you just put the Chiefs and the Jags in a teaser, right? Just be done with it?

Yeah, but someone's killing you in it. It's like one of these – that's too easy. It's not Kansas City. It's not Kansas City I think that's killing you in this, but maybe the Chiefs. So, look. Yeah, Dolphins, I can see the Dolphins. I don't really advise ever doing like –

I mean, I think like Titans plus seven, Chiefs down to pick them is like a great way to play this stuff, a teaser like that, right? Something like that maybe? Yes. Yes. Yeah. All right.

Nonetheless, I think that – look, the Jacksonville Jaguars do not help their quarterback by all the drop passes and poor offensive line play, but the Bengals feel like they're sort of a dead man walking team. Matt, they're bad at quarterback because of the injuries, and they're not terribly good at defense. They're 26th in DVO on defense this year. It feels like this game could be like a pretty big ass-kicking

because the Bengals are just sort of finished like just like they're just done like you know like we've tried our best it's not going to happen how i know we're pros and we're supposed to play through things and we certainly do but like i i think this could be it's one of those games where i probably go to bed at halftime you know i mean it's like you know what okay this is it you don't need to see more uh no that guy's jake brown what's jake browning the who's the back jackson you don't need to see more tank bigsby handoffs no i'm good sweeps in the third quarter so this poor bangles this this is a tough situation go ahead so we have arizona plus six and a half t. So we have Arizona plus six and a half.

Tennessee plus one. Yes. Plus six and a half. Let's go. Yeah. Houston minus three. Rams minus three and a half. And the fifth game you want the Niners minus two and a half?

I mean, is there even an alternative? Like we're on other sides of the box. Tampa Bay minus five, but we're on the other side of that one. We're not doing that one. So, yeah. Yeah, no, there's no other choice. Kansas City minus six, but we're on the other side of that one. We're not doing that one. So, yeah. Yeah, no, there's no other choice. Kansas City minus six, but we can't do that. No.

These are nice fives, dude. The Rams one, I'm glad we got there. Oh, I like that. But the first three, I feel – the first three are as good as I felt about games all season, which means they'll go 0-3, but I do feel like those are those are iron clad and yeah that's uh that's good all right this was a very workmanlike week we didn't have any like scorching hot takes we took we were disciplined we took the things we liked yes um and we were yeah i like that you said we were pros the only thing pro about us the san francisco bet is a pro bet um

yes we are we're betting. We're betting like pros. I was looking at the Action Network app, and when Chris Rabon's on the same pick as you are and Millman's on the same pick as you are, it feels good. It feels good to be on the same side as people that win a lot of their football games, Rabon especially. When Rabon's on your wager, you're feeling good about it. Chad does the sharp thing, right? You just, you know, whatever. And it's a side you want it. Chad does the sharp thing, right?

You just, you know, whatever. And that's the side you want to be on for the most part, right? You want to be on the side of the money makers. All right, we'll take a short break. We'll come back. We'll hit the vaulted picks

and maybe we'll do some parent corner, stealing a little bit of Sal's mojo here and Bill's, but Matt, baby corner, baby parent corner. We'll do something like that next. We'll be back in a second. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with Vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge.

Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes, and there are no entry fees required to participate.

This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Vaulted, and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me.

Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-Tt-e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along guys i want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game i have been playing this season prize picks is a skill-based real money daily fantasy sports game how does it work You pick two to six players and if they will go more or less than the prize picks projection, you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry. So go to prize picks and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. It's so easy to use. I can make my picks in less than 60 seconds. The depositing was simple and straightforward. They even just added Apple Pay so i was able to

get up in minutes and start playing at prize picks you're competing against other people it's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players including pros and sharks so follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better remember go to prize picks and use code g ssy for a first deposit match up to 100 all. All right, guys, we're back. And let's get to our vaulted pool. Remember, VLTED. Go to the app. Look for my pool. That's Jeff with a G-O-F-F.

Free to join. Cash prizes. We have 20 predictions as usual. You can agree or disagree. I put a confidence level of 1 to 10. It's a lot of fun to do. Again, cash prizes. If you beat me, you enter to our big game pool,

which will be $5,000 given out for the big game. All right, Matt. The first one that I like here in this one, I mean, look. Colts will cover a point and a half against Tennessee Titans. We disagree on that, right, because we have the Titans to cover. Colts will score more than 22 and a half points against tennessee i don't think so either right they're not scoring 22 and a half points i'm going i would disagree with that one strongly 100 agree um especially the the colts are going to really struggle i think running the ball the titans

run defense has been great that's a a really bad Colts matchup. So I would sort of just lean on, I don't know if Tennessee is going to get there. That's the next question is whether they'll score more than 20 and a half, but definitely to get over the 20 mark for sure. I don't think so. I will say though, the next game up here,

I will take the Falcons. Well, it says Falcons to cover point half. I would disagree. I'm on the Jcons. Well, it says Falcons to cover 0.5. I would disagree. I'm on the Jets, man, this week. I know you're crazy, Matt. It's not in our contest, but I'm – are you taking the Falcons in this spot? We have to do – we're making predictions based on the vaulted stuff.

You're not – you're taking the Falcons here? I'm not – let's be clear. I am by no means upset at our good friends at Fulton for including this in the pool because this is one of those games that is going to separate the too brave from the sensible. I am going to take the point and a half for the Falcons. Just hand the ball off to Sean Robinson 50 times. What are we talking about? Tim Boyle?

Go ahead. Pack Tim Boyle. I'm going to put 10 points on the Falcons. This is crazy. That's absolutely, though, not what Arthur Smith does. So your wager runner coach doesn't do any of that stuff. All right, moving down the list here. Thank God we don't have to put this in our contest.

I love the fine folks at Vaulted, but I'm going to skip. I'm not going to torture you guys with giving opinions on the Chargers-Patriots stuff. You said that you like the Tyreek Hill to have more than 97.5 receiving yards. Go ahead and make your case. Yeah, I mean, if our friends at Vaulted could up the amount of points you could bet on this to, like, 100, I would put them all on the over here. This is just, like like every single game. If you watch this Washington team every week,

there's like somebody breaking a personal record of like, wow, I can't believe like AJ Brown, every time he gets targeted, it's a 75 yard touchdown. It's like, that's what happens when you play the commanders. It's your get right spot. Tyree kill. I don't want to, I don't want to do this now, but I do think that betting Tyree kill for MVP is a very smart idea. Still.

I don't think that Prescott's winning the MVP this year. I don't think Jalen hurts is going to win it because there's there, you know, probably going to slide a little bit. So I do think Tyree has a chance. And if he's going to win MVP, it's from having a 250 yard game in a game like this which he absolutely could it's three long catches to the house um i think

that's 100 in play here i mentioned how bad the washington defense has been you know ron rivera calling the defense may not totally alleviate the problems the only thing is i think waddle could have one of those get right games too. So I would say take the over here. Also take the Dolphins to cover nine and a half against the Commanders. I think they're a dead team and they will benefit from a higher draft pick anyway. So God, Godspeed if you're on the under here. So we also will put in the Rams covering the Browns as a vaulted prediction.

We like that as we mentioned as one of our five things. So we'll agree here. And the last one here at the very bottom, Calvin really will have more receiving yards than Jamar Chase. I mean, I don't know how you don't agree with that, considering the Jake Browning factor. Like, that feels like an absolute yes, agree with, right? Yeah, I think so.

There's this other one with Mixin uh the next one is mixin getting over what's the yardage total that that we have here 49 and a half yards yeah um i don't think that's happening either uh in the last five games mixin has 128 rushing yards i don't think that they're gonna um they're gonna have a ton of running room. Last week he had 16 rushing yards against Pittsburgh. He's had some like decent catches. But I just, I don't think, I think the way to beat the Bengals now is just stack the box and make Jake Browning throw against you. What a sad thing, man.

I know you're not a big Bengals fan as a Chiefs fan, but like it sucks not having Joe Burrow. I like watching good quarterbacks play. I like watching Joe Burrow play. So that deals for a vaulted, Matt. Your son is a month old now, correct? He is a month and a day old. So you have two more months, basically.

Two more months. All right. So everybody says that everybody has like a different number where people are like, people basically say like, it sucks for the first six months, or it sucks for the first two months, or it sucks for the first three months. Everybody has a different number. But it does feel like three is like, the time where it can really start to shift, because that's where you can like really extend their sleep. Yes. It's all about sleep. Yes. Well, four months is when we do the sleep training. Yeah, they sleep through the night. But some babies sleep without sleep training.

But yeah, you have a couple more months. You just got to get by, man. Yeah. Just got to survive. Survive in advance. I'm coming. Survive every day is a challenge, buddy. We're getting through it.

But I come back to work full time in a couple of weeks. And that's going to be the one. That's sort of like the big pivot point where we got to really have our schedule figured out and um those sort of hurdles covered and are you know that's around the holidays so like we'll have family around but it'll still be a challenge but um i didn't want to share this for any new parents out there so we so we had um a notary come to our house a few nights ago so we had to like sign all these documents you know you will and all that stuff when you have kids you should i highly recommend you get that in order um i mean there's no recovery she was just kind of like uh i don't know she was just like a wise

older woman and she uh she saw our our baby and was just sort of like she she seemed like she had homespun wisdom about her and she tells my wife, here's a trick for you. If you need the baby to sleep, you run a piece of toilet paper over their face and blow on them and they fall asleep. And I didn't hear this. And Ivy told me this afterwards. And I was like, that's the most ridiculous thing i've ever heard last night the baby just will not sleep it's just one of those days just he just never really goes down and i was like let's give it a shot jeff like a light switch she does it blows on him out for like two hours it was like the most insane like sorcery i've ever seen in my entire life it

was like so silly and then she tried it again at like one in the morning and it worked again it's two for two it's it's like uh betting brable is a home dog it's always profitable it's just this little homespun piece of wisdom that I never, you don't read that in Emily Oster's books, Jeff. You don't see that one anywhere. So that's one for the new parents out there. Did you read parenting books? Kleenex.

I did, yeah. My wife told me not to. Why? Why? I think that's a very solid idea. I think we's a very solid idea. I think we were, we wanted to feel, I think, I think we took like a lot of classes. We did a lot of research. We did all that stuff. And then when you're in the heat of the moment,

it's just sort of like, just got to execute. Right. Like you just got to kind of go with it. So my mom's in the medical field and she's like, what you said, basically, she's like, when you get to like when it's 1 a.m and your baby won't sleep none of the books matter right it's like none of it matters like it's it's every parent does everything different like this toilet paper thing that you do maybe another person's listening right now and they're like that doesn't freaking work like it's so that's why the books to me like unless you're reading it to maybe mentally

prepare yourself to have a kid you know there's like the books to me like unless you're reading it to maybe mentally prepare yourself to have a kid you know there's like the right mental space to be in i guess but like to help your parent like i my wife we didn't read a single book man i'm not saying we're the best parents ever but like my wife was like don't bother with that it's not going to help us at all so we just didn't do it yeah i don't know i think there's there's sort of two types of decision makings as a parent I'm finding. At least for a baby, it's like the moment-to-moment decisions, which you have to factor in the lack of sleep, the frustration, all the other stuff.

But then there's the bigger decision tree. It's like, are we going to sleep train? Are we going to go to daycare? How are we going to handle that? All those sort of big-picture decisions, I did find it helpful to sort of think through. how are we going to handle that? Like all those sort of like big picture decisions, I did find it helpful to sort of like think through. Yeah.

If you have choices to make, like, you know, if you're fortunate to have choices and, and, and I will say, I will say the only advice I ever give new parents, because you know,

the daycare decision, it's up to you. I don't know what your situation with that. If you can afford to have someone help you professionally sleep, train your kid as worth every dollar. We did that. Something that I didn't know existed until you mentioned it we paid someone in manhattan that we knew we met when we were through another parent we had our first child in new york city we were in paramus and then we flew her down to actually potty train my son potty train is a loose word but like help sleep train my daughter at the same time

and um the potty training thing is easy you just you just bribe your kids it's not that hard once we figured out how to do it it's like you just you have a giant we put a giant tractor up on the mantle and said alex if you poop you get the tractor and eventually he did took a couple weeks and he pooped um and then you also just make a huge – every time he peed and pooped, you make the biggest celebration of all time. It's like the greatest thing of all time. You celebrate it like you've won the World Series. Seriously, that was the advice.

For the sleep training part, man, like from four months – I mean, now, man, my kids sleep so good. And the sleep training thing is more about a schedule and a routine. And so as a parent, you understand how your day is structured. And when you get breaks and when you can work and when you can do things because your baby is sleeping. And it was worth every cent, dude. That's the only advice I give parents. You can afford to do it.

Like some babies don't need it. My buddy had a kid. This kid's almost a year old. The baby started sleeping in three months by itself. I mean, you don't always need that. Yeah, I know, right? right i was like good for you um it's worth the money if you can find someone to help you do that because then again like you get into a routine babies love routine they love like you know we read them a book swaddle you know uh milk bed you know bath swaddle book whatever routine was we read the same book for our kids for like four years brown bear brown bear brown bear what do you see

and i think my daughter got like got like teacher bear this is another one um so uh that's what we did and you know our kids uh our kids were able to eventually have four months sleep and whatnot. So it gets better. I keep telling you that. I know I texted you last night a photo of my daughter who was snuggling with me. I was like, buddy, it gets better, dude.

I promise. It gets tougher. I mean, different things, you know, different. I worry about different things now. But, you know, it does get better. The no sleep is worth it eventually. So, all right, my friend. The no sleep is worth it eventually. All right, my friend. We did it.

Week 13. We're getting closer, man. I know. Five hours away from Oregon beating Washington, too. So I got to get my rest. I got to get my mental preparation for this game tonight. If you're listening to this on Friday, you're listening to this live before the Oregon game, Bo Nix over 11.5 rushing yards.

Taz Johnson over 75.5 receiving yards. I like those wagers, those props. I can't find them on the offshore, but they're on Fando, I believe, some of them, DraftKings. So take a peek at that. All right, everyone, we'll be back on Monday with our recap show. Make sure to check out the Vaulted app. Get your predictions into my pool.

We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Have a great weekend of ball watching.