Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 14

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back to make their Week 14 bets after yet another 4-1 weekend. They are now hitting at 62% clip on the season and don't look to slow down as they analyze big match ups across the league including the Bills and Chiefs momentous showdown. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's december 7th i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff schwartz is smart you were live on twitter and on youtube and we're on your favorite podcast platform of choice thank you for joining us on our nfl preview show for week 14 of national football league and we're brought to you by the vaulted app it's the home of my season-long game giving out fourteen thousand dollars in cash prizes in the pools with five thousand allocated to the final pool of the season which will be the day of the big game that's vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools on any entry fees, and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself

by using the vaulted challenge feature. As you guys know by now, each week we have a pool for you to enter. It is 20 questions. It is free to enter and cash prizes. Shall you finish first, second, or third? If you beat me in a given week, you will be entered into the big game pool. Go find me on the app. Pool Jeff, Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F.

That's Vaulted, V-L-T-E-D. It's free to join. Free cash prizes. It's a ton of fun to do each and every week. Matthew, we were four and one this past week in our five wagers we give out every single week we will store those wagers in the vaulted app as well we are 38 23 and 4 which is a good season it's a good year so far we're crushing it man when we we had sort of like a a little dip that coincided with me paying way

less attention to football then you know we passed the one month mark with my son yep brand new baby he's uh five weeks and change now uh so you know i started watching the games a little bit closer and here we are the process is back here we go1. And by the way, we should have been 5-0. The freak injury to a Titans punter, that screwed us last week. If they had been able to convert an extra point, we'd be looking at 5-0. So nice week for us. And hopefully it's a stinky week this week. But I think we can make some lemonade out of these lemons. It's not the greatest week.

And we're recording on thursday instead of friday this week because of my schedule and so there is a thursday night game tonight between the stewardess and patriots which might yeah one of those games where you know you don't like there are certain times of the year when it's just best to be like you know what honey i'm gonna hang out with you tonight yeah i'm gonna forego the football game this is one of those nights right where you just say you know what no football tonight and just hang out with you tonight. Yeah, I'm going to forego the football game. This is one of those nights, right, where you just say, you know what, no football tonight and just hang out with your significant other and just give them the satisfaction of missing a football game

and hanging out with you. Yeah, and, like, they will probably assume Pitt Steelers, Patriots, like, these are two marquee franchises. Like, what an act of selflessness. Do you know the total for this game? Yeah, it's 30, right? 30. This is like an Iowa football game, man.

This is crazy that we're looking at a 30 point total on a Thursday night. I was going to make the joke that this is why you rescheduled the podcast, because we had to bet this game. We had to take bailey zappy getting uh six points no thank you um i did a i'm in new york so i get to actually wager on the apps i did a uh under seven and a half points for the patriots parlay with a zappy under 155 passing yards plus three something what do you think matt how do you feel saying all that that there's a bet out there that you placed with those results attached like that's a part of your that's a part of your life story now i've been on a team who has lost three straight games uh only allowing

10 points or less a real football game happened where they lost six, nothing last week. So we're not going to play this game. If you are God bless it is a, maybe a survivor leg for you in a survivor pool, by the way, Steelers might, might get, might get you home and not a great survivor week. All right, buddy, let's get to the, the real football of the week. Again, a lot of backup quarterbacks, a lot of ugly numbers. What do we got first?

Yeah, let's start with, oh man, let's start with Lions-Bears. That is one of the early games on Sunday. The current line is 3-3.5 for the Lions as a road favorite. No one's still very eager to bet the Bears. This is an interesting one to start with because i actually have a feeling here i'm curious if if you have a lean on this one yeah bears plus three and a half right like this is this is the yes this is the time to do it it look it has to be think about this so the lions we've seen this year their defense man is just not trustworthy

like it is they allow way too many points and a lot of things they were up what 21 nothing against new orleans last week and if not for like a fourth down conversion the saints get the ball back with a chance to win that game and they had opportunities other times too in the fourth quarter to win that game um looking with the lions against the bears what three weeks ago right like they were losing the fourth quarter in that game they lost the packers they're not playing as well. The Lions are off. I mean, the Bears are off a bye, which is, I look.

Their coaching staff is not one where I'm like, oh, my God, they're off a bye. I got to bet them. But Justin Fields is dynamic. I'm not saying he's a franchise quarterback, but he makes enough plays with his legs, Matt. He does enough to make games interesting. Also, too, there's a Jared Goff outside in cold weather situation here,

where it's in his career historically has been really bad. That Packers game last year sort of broke like a losing streak in the cold weather for him. It's going to be windy and cold and miserable in Chicago in December. We get three and a half. It's still available. I like Bears three and a half. Yep. I love it, too. I'm glad this was on your radar. three and a half yep i love it too uh i'm glad this was on your radar um the half point really nice timing for us getting that uh because looks like the lions are not getting a ton of public bets or professional bets so interesting i guess i'm curious about that um yeah i mean you mentioned the golf outdoors thing the other thing is like the lions i think the market hasn't really corrected on the lions yet um they've looked like a really different team in the last couple weeks uh whether

it's just some some injuries or just you know people have sort of figured out what they're doing scheme wise um but generally like a team that starts really hot does tend to correct at this point in the year um i was just reading a great stat that uh as the year goes on i'm trying to find i just lost this basically if if a team starts really hot uh yeah teams with a 70 plus percent win percentage um in december later are 45 percent covering in the last 20 years so basically what that means is they start really hot they cover all their games they're this public darling and then they let you down at the end of the year. So it's a great spot.

The Bears have looked a lot better. I mean, my guy Montez Sweat seems to have really turned their defense around. I know, right? Yeah. It's really strange. Yeah. So I think the Bears are a good play here. They still have the Panthers pick, so it's not like they're trying to tank.

I think this is a home run play here. All right, man. So one down. Interesting the way these are ordered because I like this next game also. Carolina going to the Saints. Last week we disagreed on this one or on the Panthers rather. They ended up covering. Well, yeah, they pushed on the final line.

I like them again this week, Jeff. I hate to say it. I think i'm back again are you yeah uh no but go ahead i mean i i don't like five this week so if you like carolina we'll certainly consider it i mean the saints are just not a good team that's the main case that i have to make um if jamis winston is starting then we get a chance to, he's the eighth least profitable of 213 quarterbacks in the last 20 years. He's 819 and one against the spread. He's terrible as a, he's better actually as a favorite.

But he's, this is a rare opportunity to be getting almost a touchdown betting against Jameis Winston. Five and a half was, I think, is that the number now still five and a half? Yeah uh five and a half was i think is that the number now still five and a half oh there's a thousand and a half yeah there's um five and a half there's five and a half yeah yeah i mean look carolina a few things about them like they've it seems like they're they definitely played a better game last week without frank reich but also they should hopefully be getting JC who is, has been a year for them. Like every, when he plays, they have a much, they have a winning record when he doesn't play.

They're absolutely terrible. So that could make a big difference. I just think that these two teams aren't that far apart. And the saints, the saints have just been overinflated this whole year. They're terrible in the red zone. They're terrible. You know, Dennis Allen weekend week out, let's let's betters down down i just think you're getting a good number with carolina here look if jamis winston he either will throw the ball to his own team for a touchdown or throw the ball to the other team for a touchdown like we need one pick six in this game to cover probably right um and you're right about

you know they play a little bit better last week without him um without frank reich and look they're sort of due for probably a win at some point i know they have one they're probably due for another one soon and the saints just aren't this aren't good you know i mean it's not it's not good yeah um some some poor nfc south teams that get boat raced by the Eagles or Cowboys in that week one wildcard game. All right, what do we got next here? All right, so are we saying maybe to the Panthers? Yes, yes, they're in the maybes. Because this next game, I'm not going to do it.

You're not going to take Houston, laying three and a half to Zach Wilson's jets. Oh, okay. Well, time out. You're going to go for Houston here. Yeah. I mean, what's the case for the jets? Like what could it possibly be? Okay. So this is interesting. This game took a ton of sharp action. I don't know why it was open four and a half and got hammered down to three and a half right now what is the reasoning for this that houston on the road against his

defense maybe struggles a little bit but are we saying zach wilson sort of plays better than tim boyle i don't i don't know man i i'm confused by so i think if this gets a three i would smash houston three and a half maybe a little bit less but yeah but normally the reason i said don't convince me i thought you'd make a case for the uh the home dog here and sort of chance ugly it up with some jets plus three and a half no chance dude i think uh the quarterback thing is a huge concern but also like the the the texans have just the texans are just playing really well and their defense has gotten better their pass rush has gotten better um their run game has gotten better like damian pierce was revived last week um and the jets like what is the jets

offense now like aside from you know the occasional nice play from Brees Hall or maybe Garrett Wilson, this is kind of a dead team. The worry, I think, is that the Texans are flying a little bit too high. You don't like to take teams that are on a bit of a tear. We could be sort of buying them a little bit too late. I don't feel super strongly about this one, but I do feel like, I don't know. I do feel like this could be just one of those, like, wait, the Jets are three and a half point dogs to a playoff team? Like, what are we talking about?

That's my feeling here. Yeah. To me, this is a – Texans are – Texans right here. But I think you just can't wager on the Jets. Like this is a good spot to say, you know what? We're going to fade the Jets in this situation. Let's take the Texans.

Yeah. I don't love it, but I don't know. I would consider it if we can't find five. And I promise I don't like every game, but the way these are stacked is like I do have opinions on these first few. Yeah, I mean, I don't really like a lot. There's not a lot I like this week. So I need suggestions for games to like. So it's good to be in the spot where we have a couple that we like early. Perfect. All right. So maybe, well, light maybe for the texans i don't think

we're gonna end up with that but it's it's a maybe um colts at bangles uh the jake browning reviews are in and they're positive uh i don't want to bring up an oregon or i'm sorry a washington player but i did anyway um the bangles are home dogs in a few spots this line you can kind of get whichever direction you want the favorite by one now um it's a stay away from me man i love these to me this is a stay away because you don't if you expect this from jake brown and again you might as well make his hall of fame bust right like he's not gonna do this again um and the colts you know they're feisty man like they they came back in houston this past weekend we talked about they should have lost that game probably with a with the punter didn't get

hurt they blocked two punts i mean they're like a feisty team they're fighting for a playoff berth i i am not of the opinion that like jake brown's gonna have this back-to-back game bangles defense 27th and dvoa so there's some issues there on the defense i just would stay away from this game i think you're you like the Bengals, I would imagine. But I don't expect Jake Brown to do this again. No, it doesn't make a lot of sense to fade Gardner Minshew for playing over his skis and then say, like, let's take Jake Browning also. I just, I don't know.

The Colts is these road favorites. Like, I just think the Colts, I road favorites like i just think the colts um i just feel like they're a little overinflated but the bangles like betting on a backup quarterback the week after he had a nationally televised really nice win um feels a little bit foolish so again if we need a fifth the bangles maybe um but i i don't't know. This one doesn't feel like there's a great advantage on either side. No, I don't think so either. All right. How about this one, Jeff?

Cleveland is hosting Jacksonville and the man formerly known to some as C.J. Beathard, C.J. Beathard. The Browns are laying three to Jacksonville. Any interest in Cleveland here? Yeah, I do like Cleveland here. Okay, great. Even if Trevor Lawrence plays,

you're going to get a hobbled Trevor Lawrence against the Browns pass rush with an offensive line that's shaky. Okay, sign me up. I think the only thing here is like the Flacco, you know, the end of the Rams game where it kind of got haywire. But before that, Flacco looked good. Okay, good is the wrong strong word, but he looked very competent.

They moved the football off. They had a real offense, what looked like a real offense. Jacksonville just allowed 30 points to Jake Browning. He was 32 of 37. What are we doing? Jacksonville this year has been so up and down at times, such high variance. We know what we're getting with the Browns.

I feel we know what we're getting. The only issue is Stefanski's a favorite we know sucks. But otherwise, it's like a fate of Jacksonville right now with a bum quarterback in the Browns defense betting on them. Yep, I agree. I think this is a really good spot. We talked about the weather in the Chicago game. The Cleveland weather, Sunday, rain, 16-mile-an-hour winds in the 40s.

This is not going to be a game that favors Jacksonville. This is a classic game for this Cleveland team. It's built to win games like this. In the trenches pass rush run d they're getting some guys back denzel ward should be back which is huge for them um so i i think cleveland you're getting you know everyone's kind of off of them and rightfully because they've looked you know terrible the last couple weeks um but i i don't know i just i think that they're this is the kind of game that they win. If Trevor Lawrence is playing again,

like I don't feel great about it, but like, this is not, Jacksonville is not like a power running team. That's going to, you know, just hammered Cleveland and win this game, like 13 to 10. Like I just don't see it. So this game is probably going to close at around 30 for the over under also, uh, right now i think yeah 30 and a half 31 and a half so under is probably still the play there if you're looking at that but yeah i just think cleveland is a really smart play here to bet on this defense

having a bounce back game uh i'm with you let's move on we have the browns in there ugly ones we're very locked in in this one o'clock slot. Two games left in the early window here. The Rams are going to Baltimore. Baltimore off a bye. They are laying seven and a half everywhere. This line has not budged all week. Do you have a feel for this one?

No. The Ravens have dominated teams at home this year like Seattle the Lions I mean I would lean Ravens here Matt but like not strong enough to make a case for anything Pugetukua a little beat up for the Rams they're on the road they're outside it's just to me just to stay away yeah Yeah, I'd probably be on the Rams. By the way, they're getting 27% of the bets and 71% of the money. This is the ultimate pros Joe's game this week. The hook is a little bit tasty, but Baltimore is really good. And I, you know, they, they could run away with it, but they,

they tend to not, I don't know. I feel like they're one of those teams that like can get up and then they kind of do stupid stuff in the fourth quarter where the rams like the rams just keep punching like they seem to just cover or like you know that karen williams touchdown last week where they ended up scoring where they didn't really need to like they just seem to just always be all gas no breaks yeah um which i kind of like with the over over a touchdown. And, but I don't know. I mean, it's this, the Ravens off a buy at home is never really a good time to bet against them. Correct. But I just, I just feel like the Rams are, I just think the Rams are just solid and they're just going to,

they're just going to play everyone decently, but you know, there, there's nowhere, there's a huge talent gap here. So I'm fine passing this one. If you're on Baltimore. Yeah. We can pass this one. I don't like it. Great. Speaking of passes, Jeff, the Bucs at the Falcons. Do you want to play a little Russian roulette and take a side in this one?

No. Let's save our listeners some air time, some much-needed break from discussing two teams we could care less about. Unless you have a play, do you like something here? No, of course not. The Falcons are winning one and a half, and they're getting all the money, and Tampa's getting the majority of the bets. I just don't know how you trust either of these teams.

No, thanks. All right. Hard pass. To the late window on Sunday, let's start with Seattle at the 49ers. The 49ers are laying 10.5. Do you have an opinion here? So, Chris Felica, who I do the Bear Bets podcast with, is super on the Niners this week.

I'm not. I don't – I get why you'd be on be on them seattle we've talked about the many times this year we've been for and against them you know sometimes just you know they're they're inconsistent play and and whatnot but isn't this number too big or just the niners gonna steamroll a division rival in seattle like this um i don't want to take seattle matt i really don't but i think the night it's just it's a big number for divisional game seahawks aren't terrible they're not terrible the niners are playing well though if a national tv win is there a little bit of an emotional letdown for the night i think seahawks first half being a good wager here um but i i don't have a great take for the whole game the

full game wager do you i really like seattle here um i like them a lot and would like to make the case for them i think the first the first case is these two teams played um what three weeks ago on thanksgiving uh the 49ers blew them out in seattle that's what everyone has in mind the 49ers also are coming off of a massive statement win uh where off of a essentially but well they have a rest disadvantage right because the seahawks played against dallas last thursday now san francisco flies back across the country um seattle who seattle is coming off of like a tough loss um and they they've lost they've lost three in a row actually and uh i think i don't know if i have this exactly correct chris raymond mentioned this on his podcast pete carroll on a

multi-loss streak like this is 21 and 5 against the spread he's one of these guys that like as an underdog you just want to take in general but especially when they're getting overinflated like this divisional teams that play each other the second game kind of always tends to be close right um the 49ers like it just feels like they just they kind of had their super bowl last week like do they need to come and beat the seahawks by a million like probably not um kenneth walker should be back too which is unless something changed today um when he everybody liked charbonnet this year but when walker does play it seems like their offense is just a bit better um i don't know i just think this is a really good chance to take a really good

coach in sort of a must-win spot i mean seattle yeah they started out pretty well and now they're six and six this playoff picture is getting a little bit crowded. I'm not saying they're going to win this game, but they kind of have to show up for it, and they have a few extra days of rest against a team that is everyone's consensus best team in the league now. So I think it's a pretty good play. We might lose by 10, but that would be a winner. Yeah, the idea of sort of fading, you know,

fading the Niners off this emotional win is certainly in play here with Seattle needing to win with 10 days rest. I mean, it's a good situational spot for Seattle, put it like that. To your point, it might be gross. We might not like it 10, 15 minutes in. But they're divisional opponents, man. They know each other well. To think the Niners are going to blow them out, I feel like, is very heavy.

Yeah, it takes some stones and i'm actually seeing a plus 11 uh we'll take the extra half point but uh the seahawks are getting 76 of the money but only 43 of the tickets so if you're if you're public you know if you're joe public you're you're taking the 49ers you're putting them in your money line you're putting them in your in your, you're putting them in your teaser, you're putting them in all your parlays. So those are the kind of spots where you like Seattle. So there is someone that I fade in the internet when they post plays.

And you know who it is. And this person mushes every favorite each week. They put them in a money line parlay each week. The Niners are going to be in the money line parlay. And it's going to be mushed. It's going to be mushed. Sonny right now. The Chiefs were mushed last week.

The Bills week before that. It's a giant mush. So worth noting. All right, let's get to the next game. If you have one word about this game, Matt, I'ming you let's see what this game is i was looking to see if that person made a pick yet uh this is vikings raiders i do not have a word about this game uh the vikings are three-point road favorites to aidan o'connell my god some of these qb matchups this week are just unspeakable they're so bad hard pass no uh no hard pass all right

let's talk about the next game because i'm i'm curious if we're going to deviate from our usual in this situation wow i would be very curious um i didn't even prep for this because i just figured this was an auto play this is buffalo going to kansas city kansas city is laying a point and a half buffalo playing for for their lives. The tickets are about split, but 70% of the money is on Kansas City. I think everyone just sees that stat with Patrick Mahomes as a short favorite, as a home favorite after a loss. All of the trends would say to take the Chiefs, but Buffalo has looked pretty good too. It seems you're a little hesitant to

take Kansas City here. What's your opinion? How many weeks can I keep saying – how many weeks do we have to keep saying the offense is going to figure it out? No. The Chiefs probably don't lose three games in a row. So, like, I would imagine that – like, this to me is – and I said this in my Bear Bets podcast.

Like, I like Mahomes over rushing this week. It was 26-and-a-half on FanDuel. I mean, on DraftKings, I should say. Because to me, the Chiefs have to win this game. You know what I mean? They've lost two in a row now, if I'm correct on that, right? Two in a row. And it's a game where if you don't win this game, you're now 8-5.

The one seed is completely gone. And the schedule in the back half, the last four weeks after this, is pretty easy. You get a bunch of wins. This is a game where I think you sort of have to win this game if you're Kansas City. Now, Buffalo does too. If they don't win this game, they're out of the playoffs completely.

But if the Chiefs just, quote, unquote, clicked, right, they click on offense, Matt, they're going to be good again. The problem is they haven't done this yet through 13 weeks. So is this the week against a Bills defense that has not been very good because of the injuries i don't know but i mean one point matt what it's such a low number for kansas city i know and um it's funny you said they lost chiefs lost two straight and i was like yeah they've lost two straight they did beat the Raiders in there. And this time last week, everyone was saying, hey, Chiefs figured it out. We got to lay the six against Green Bay.

I think Green Bay is good. I think that was just sort of a bad game for Kansas City. I'm fine taking the Chiefs here. The concern is just like, this is like the biggest game in Bills ever. This is like as big as the playoff game, the 13 seconds game, right?

It's, this is who the bills have always sort of looked up to as their big brother that they need to take down. They need this game more than the chiefs do. Like the chiefs are going to win their division. They've known they were going to win their division since like week two, the bills are need to get into the playoffs,

obviously in games like this. The chiefs also like, is kind of it you look at their schedule it's like at patriots they get the raiders again they get the bangles without burrows they go at the chargers in the game that'll be meaningless like this is kind of their last test for the year um at home right it's like how do we not if if with all we've done with Mahomes in his career, how do we not take him in this spot? 31-3 straight up in November and December in his last 34. This is when he's just as good as, this is when you take Mahomes.

I'm with you. I don't know. I'm with you. Especially the fact that the public's off of them makes me feel even better about it i put them in the maybes for now um no interesting and i think it's strong a strong maybe um all right what do we got next year i don't i can't imagine you have any thoughts on this one but we'll find out i mean i'm i just want to talk about this game regardless the eagles are at Dallas, three and a half points.

Oh, you missed. Oh, sorry, sorry. Broncos Chargers. Broncos Chargers. Okay, thank you. Go to Eagles Cowboys. Let's go. Just move the graphic around.

Can I just briefly make fun of Justin Herbert? Like, everyone gives him the the credit for it's like oh well look at how many times his defense has screwed him and all these losses he didn't even score a fucking touchdown against the patriots like this guy is so he drives me crazy like this is not a top five quarterback i get he has the ability but like that scored a touchdown matt i mean you catch the ball better than quinn johnson does like that's it's a huge who cares i mean you drop two long passes in a game that since your offense is going to bring that up to you it's not great but yes yeah he probably does not get as much blame as he should for some

of the losses but wait till he gets like harbaugh next year and explodes you know like it's it's coming with a better coach i feel like yeah sure we'll just wait well maybe in like year 10 of his career he'll start to win some big games uh but you know great job i am putting up six points in new england well done sam howell put up 400 they covered yeah yeah they they covered thanks to that defense brandon staley's much maligned defense. I don't know why I get so hot about Herbert, but it's like, what are we doing? Everyone's giving this guy his flowers. He doesn't want shit. Alright, let's talk about one team that's won some stuff. The other team that's trying to win some stuff. The Eagles

after this loss are getting three and a half points in Dallas. All I want to do is take Philly, but it is a little bit scary, right? Yeah, it is. Here's my case against Philly and why I think it's a stay away for now, unless you love Philly as one of your picks. No. This is a very oddly difficult NFL stretch for a team. Even when you think to yourself, like, you have this five-game stretch where it's really going to be hard,

there's always, like, an injury in a quarterback that makes it easier, right? Or there's, like, something that happens. Not the Eagles, man. They went, what, Kansas City, a tight physical win. Overtime Buffalo, they won that game. And then put the Niners, who treated that game like it was their Super Bowl, and the Eagles got smashed down the stretch. It looked like, look, they started up, they were up 6-0,

looked fresh, and eventually just died out, as we figured. Now you're on the road at Dallas, where you're inside, you're in the Cowboys element, and the Cowboys, again, very untrustworthy organization, but they need this win, right? No wins against a team who has won a game this season. Sorry. No wins against a team with a winning record this season. They've blown out, Matt, all the bad teams they've played.

And for the second game in a row, the Eagles are playing a team on 10 days rest. Happened last week, happened this week. And I'm not taking the Cowboys, absolutely not. But the Eagles, to me, would typically be the wager if they just didn't have this gauntlet of a stretch of games where they look just physically and emotionally drained. It's hard to play up each week like this and know that you're getting the best shot from someone else.

In the game, the Cowboys desperately have to win. Otherwise, they're not winning the East. up each week like this and know that you're getting the best shot from someone else in the game the cowboys desperately have to win otherwise they're not winning the east that's not the mvp and no one believes in them for the rest of the season yeah yeah you're right um i sometimes you know you look at these trends you look at everything and then sometimes you just take a step back you think to yourself mike mccarthy dallas cowboys dak prescott getting an mvp talk and then there's the eagles there's jalen hurts who's probably winning the mvp if they win this? Like, no one's really talking about that. It's him.

Like, Brock Purdy's not winning the MVP. Like, that's just not happening. He's one of the betting favorites. It's him and Dak. Like, when have the Cowboys ever done this kind of spot? Ever. Like, how long have you been watching football? Since 1995.

They haven't delivered in. delivered so the three and a half is just like to me what happens if if the 49ers win by three last week right and by the way like jaylen was clearly not right and that that game got out of hand so i i just think that philly if this game were a week ago philly might be favored like honestly and philly's weakness is going to be their secondary. They're banged up everywhere. Jalen's banged up. If Jalen is that banged up that they deserve to be three-and-a-half-point dogs, that's really concerning for the long term because, you know,

like what David Carr said this week, like they should have just pulled him and just consider the Super Bowl. Like I don't know how hurt he is. If that's really like the take going around, then he's probably right. But if he's able to play, they can win any game against anyone. And I just think like the, the, the Cowboys offense has looked really amazing. They've looked really dominant.

But I just want to remind everyone like amazing they've looked really dominant um but i just want to remind everyone like who they've looked really dominant against uh they did play the eagles really well uh they did lose by five in philly they put up 41 against seattle awesome they put up 45 against the commanders who just gave up a thousand points to miami the next week they put up 33 against the panthers they put up 49 against the Giants they put up 43 against the Rams and then you know the Philly game like they they they have not had a game yet where they've made a real statement and this could be it and I could just be walking into it but like the Cowboys have not delivered in this spot ever and when people are

saying things like Mikearthy should he be coach of the year should dak prescott be the mvp i like every single thing in my body is like fade them especially against philly having said all of that this is a really tough one and there's other games i like and this it's it's a lot to sort of lay it feels like a huge game and sometimes it's fun to just watch them. But if we wanted to put Philly in the mix, I would certainly not be upset. I'll put them in the maybes for now just to have them in there. But, yeah, there's other games I think they're just better spots overall.

Can I tell you one MVP take I have is in years when it hasn't been a quarterback, all right, Adrian Peterson was nine yards from the rushing record. I was in Minnesota that year, 2012. Sean Alexander, I believe, had 2,000 yards a year. He won. I think with Danny Tomlinson, he won the record for touchdowns in a season. So when a non-quarterback wins, Matt, it is an extraordinarily epic season. It's a record-breaking season.

extraordinarily like epic season right it's a record-breaking season this feels like tyreek hill with 2 000 yards is a live mvp candidate if they're the one seed like you can get it now we have we have offensive player of the year at plus 2 000 so you know of course like i'm i'm you know i'm fine with keeping that as well. We're going to cash that one. But is it worth putting a little bit of Tyreek Hill for MVP? There's a plus 1600 right now at DK. This is the year where it feels like the Brock Purdy thing. Look, I think people will try not to give it to him because whenever you talk about Brock Purdy,

we talk about everything else. Oh, they have McCaffrey and they got this and that, like that's most voters don't vote for quarterbacks that you have to talk about qualifiers with them. And I think Brock Purdy is playing great. It's not an anti Brock Purdy take, but like they're,

they're going to not try to give it to him him that's my opinion I I get the opinion of like the great the best story like you want to give it to a guy with a great story yeah I get that I'm looking up the the the number right now are you telling me if the Dolphins end up with the one scene in Tyreek Hill has 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns he's not winning the mvp or doesn't have a chance i just had a chance to win the mvp i play i may make it uh on another show i was like why am i this i'm meant to bring uh actually i think it's 100 the right play we already talked about dak brock purdy hasn't thrown for 400 yards in the game yet like we just be honest about this he's not going to win the MVP for even if he deserves all the credit for their success it

goes to Shanahan that goes for you like I think McCaffrey is maybe even a better play on his own team um and usually what happens I think Jalen Hurts is is the one who as quarterback could could get the MVP and would probably deserve it and I don't think anyone would really say like yeah that's a bad play like he is he has been the steady enforcer that team and they're the best team in the league probably if San Francisco sort of levels off to where they've been but you mentioned it like if in a world where you know there's a couple of quarterbacks that kind of cannibalize the vote. Why not go for the best receiving season in history? And the Dolphins, just to add to this point and talk about like maybe the value that we're

getting, the Dolphins schedule from here, there's a couple of like interesting quirks to it. First, they play the Titans who secondary, they were bad, and then they traded their best safety. So he could have a really nice nationally televised game on monday night then they play the jets at home they play the cowboys at home they play the ravens and then they play the bills they have they have four home games left in the last five weeks and usually what happens to miami is they fade in the cold and like they're not good outside and they just you know

they're they're one of these like flashy you know kind of sexy teams that that doesn't know how to sort of play in buffalo in december they don't have any of that they have baltimore on new year's eve which will be a great game um but there's some real track meet potential in these games so i think that keith hill needs to get to what 600 more 500 more yards by the end of the season and i think that's very doable he can get another 150 on monday i think it's a smart play man i'm i'm way in on it i'm trying to find an mvp they seem to be pulled down today for some reason don't know why um but we'll find one and we'll try to i'll try to get one by the end of the show so we actually have one here and we could say that we you know what number we got on it's

kind of weird i don't know why it was on earlier today we talked about this on a different podcast i was on well i'll continue to try to find it um all right what do we got next we got some some monday night football two monday night games for whatever reason uh the packers coming off a big win are laying six and a half points to tommy dev and the G-Man. I can't imagine we're taking a side in this one, but I'll leave the floor open to you if you have an opinion. Look, it's hard to stomach, obviously. No. If we do this, just listen to me.

Just listen. No. Listen, please. Listen, listen. Listen, listen. But the Packers are super inflated in this game after that that chiefs win giants off a buy i'm just throwing it out there i don't i don't like it we have better things on our on our plate but in the past this is a wager that we have been

okay making and sucking it up. I think there's other better wagers. I'd rather put my money on someone else than Tommy DeVito. Like I'd rather bet Patrick Mahomes than Tommy DeVito. But you know, in the past, this has been a wager that we have relied on. Maybe that's why we're doing better this season gambling. We're not wager on this game. But it is a wager we have made in the

past. I'm not advocating to do it now, but I certainly think it's a possibility. I see Tyreek Hill at plus 1425. I'm going to make that wager for us. So we can mark that down in our little, we have $200 left over to spend. So we're going to put that down for a nice little wager for, for a podcast plus four 25 is what I can get. I'm just telling you what I see on an offshore. It wasn't on any of the other apps. So we're doing with that. So we'll pass on this one.

The next minor football game, Matt it's, I don't know why there's two it's fricking dumb Titans dolphins. Look, I say it every week. The Dolphins kick the shit out of every bad football team. We don't have to play Dolphins minus 13.5. I don't think it's a terrible wager if we don't like anything else this week.

But, I mean, they're going to win this game the same as they win every game, right? It'll be 42-20, 42-14. The Dolphins' defense, by the way, much better since Jalen Ramsey came back. I think they have a lot more than 17 points yet. Dolphins minus 13.5 is a play I'm fine with. I don't know if you are. But, you know, this might get over 14. Oh, there's a 13, by the way.

There's a 13 here. Maybe this even gets, like, above, you know, 13.5 at some point, but I'm okay with it being a maybe for me. I mean, I guess. It does feel like... You don't have to do it. On paper, clearly. Two at home. We can pass.

The only thing that's concerning here is that the Titans run defenses legit every year. Brable is a dog every year. Simmons is out. I think he's out for two weeks. With a knee injury. Yeah. I think so.

Wow. I did not know that. That actually changes my opinion quite a bit if he's out eric henry is uh playing or limited it's actually decent play it's a it's a lay i mean simmons is out simmons is out for multiple weeks so he's out officially for this you know he's. He's out playing this week. And their punter is out famously after last week. This is interesting.

I didn't consider this because I was just like, we're not taking Miami, but I didn't know the Simmons thing. Interesting. Let's think about it. Go ahead. Okay. So, so far, here's what we have the two that we loved the ones that we were chicago plus three and a half cleveland minus three like those are the two that we were like

we're like yes we're both in on those the other ones we have we have six other ones i think that we sort of either one of us liked carolina plus five and a half houston minus three and a half seattle plus 11 chiefs minus one and a half philly plus three and a half in miami i feel like the chiefs is a yes right we both like that one yeah um okay miami i'm just writing these all down 13 and a half i think we can probably eliminate houston um okay let's take houston is the one I feel the weirdest about for whatever reason. And Philly, right? We're throwing Philly out? Philly or Carolina, I think, would be the next one to eliminate.

Or Miami. But let's put Chicago and Cleveland in bold. And Kansas City, right? And Kansas City. I think Seattle is probably my favorite this week. Okay, let's put Seattle in then. Because the new rule in the podcast we did in the middle of season put in matt's favorite so it was good uh plus 11 there so that seattle's gone so i mean philly philly is i can't i'm not i don't want to philly let's take it out it feels it it feels a little bit too easy in a weird way um so we have carolina and miami left what do you think okay let me look i made him go to the well too often but let me just

let me just pull this up right here uh guy monday night football two games so uh in the last you know six seven weeks dolphins have been the commanders by 30 the jets by 21 the raiders by seven, the Jets by 21, the Raiders by 7. We bet on Dolphins that game. We didn't cover that. Lost the Chiefs. Beat the Patriots by 14. Lost the Eagles.

We're going to reverse order their schedule. Beat the Panthers by 21 at home. Giants by 15. Broncos by 50. They lost the Bills in that stretch too. They haven't been at home in a couple of weeks. I don't know, man. I mean, the Panthers is probably the sharper side, right?

I mean, no sharp person is laying 13 and a half. So if you're feeling like that's a way to go, Faye Jamis Winston, I'm fine with not having to like hope that the Dolphins would win another blowout. Does that make sense? You know what I mean? Like the Dolphins, who do they play afterwards? They play – oh, they got the Jets afterwards.

I thought they had the Cowboys. So there's no look-ahead spot for them. Let's do – It's a Monday night. It's a Monday night. I mean, Carolina was my play. Here's our tiebreaker. You ready for the tiebreaker?

Raybon's on the Panthers.breaker you ready for the tiebreaker ray bones on on the panthers that's the tiebreaker not to not to crib someone else but i mean like that feels all the money's in the dolphins right now yeah let's go we could do carolina matt i think so it's a it's a more disciplined play but i i really would not be shocked i mean the narrative thing of tyreek couldn't you see it tuesday morning maybe tyree kills the mvp guys like he had 230 yards and three touchdowns against the titans last night like we're really going to give it to rock purdy like as a guy who makes a lot of shows that do things like that i am positive that's what's going to happen if he has one of those games uh yeah but i think carolina i mean famous winston is a as a favorite uh carolina's been playing better i just i can't believe how okay i am with the dolphins honestly i feel like without simmons

the titans have literally are not as good as mi Miami at any position, which is kind of shocking. But it is Rabel and Rabel is a huge dog. Maybe we just maybe we just bet against Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston. That's fine. I'm good with that. That's fine. Let's do it. All right. We've got our five. OK, so it's Chicago, Cleveland, Chiefs, Seattle, Carolina. Love it. We got good numbers.

Seattle plus 11. I really like. Yeah. Yeah. All right. We did it. We did it. All right.

Well, let's take a quick break. We'll come back with our vaulted pool for the week. We'll talk about some of the plays we like in the vaulted app, and we'll be back in just a few minutes. Guys, I want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game I have been playing this season. Prize Picks is a skill-based, real-money daily fantasy sports game. How does it work?

You pick two to six players, and if they will go more or less than the prize picks projection you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry so go to prize picks and use code g ssy for a first deposit match up to 100 it's so easy to use i can make my picks in less than 60 seconds the depositing was simple and straightforward they even just added apple pay so i was able to get up in minutes and start playing. At PrizePix, you're competing against other people. It's just you versus projections available

instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better. Remember, go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with Vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place

where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week we can answer questions to win cash prizes and there are no entry fees required to participate this football season vaulted will be handing out money the only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools which won't happen because as you know i am smarter than you i will be using vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week so join vaulted and you can like dislike comment interact with my predictions or if you're bold enough you can make your own and see how smart you are in football which won't be as smart as me go download vaulted spelled vlted and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along. All right, we're back on the podcast.

Go to the Vaulted app. It's V-L-T-E-D. Look for the pool. Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. It's free to enter, free cash prizes. There's 20 predictions to make. You can agree or disagree. Set a level of confidence between 1 and 10

and join the pool. Make some money, Matt. It's pretty simple. It's a lot of fun to do. We'll go over our favorite pool predictions of the week, Week 14 National Football League. Well, look, if they're going to give us Bears plus 3.5 here, we're going to take it.

Lions will cover 3.5 against the Bears. The answer is disagree, and we're putting 10 on that. I love that right off the bat. Don, look, they even have the Saints here. They have all the games that we picked already in the pool. Saints will cover 5-0 against the Panthers. The answer is no. Here's the thing, though, Matt.

Will the Panthers score more than 16.5 points against the Saints? If we think the Panthers are going to win that game, we have to disagree with that. I mean, we have to agree, right? They're going to score more than 16.5 points. Yeah, I guess we do um that also lends to the bryce young one before or next um after yeah man i don't know now that we're seeing this on paper i'm like oh my god um but yeah i mean we got to stick to our guns we got an opportunity

yeah um all right this is interesting cj stout will throw at least one interception against the jets so is that a push if we agree and we just get one i feel like that's a good agree right there just take the on the road against the jets defense just take one interception you win this i it's funny jeff i came into the thinking i was going to make a really big push for the texans and then as i was saying like, man, this does just feel a little bit strange. And Stroud, Stroud has five picks over the entire season. He just hasn't had like a real clunker of a game since the Panthers game. This could be the spot outside off of a sort of a nice hot streak. This really could be the spot where you fade him so i do like this one

uh i think it's a good way to sort of be contrarian yeah um going down here um chiefs will cover the point having the bills would agree with that do you think mahalo have more passengers than josh allen feels like he probably won't um this feels like it's you know that I feel like the Chiefs formula as the season goes on shifts more to the run and the Bills are the opposite the Bills love to sort of air it out and uh Stefan Diggs has not had a big week in a while there's there's one below it that says Diggs will have more receptions than Kelsey I feel like this is the week where like Diggs something's going on with Diggs. I feel like this is the week where like Diggs, something's going on with Diggs and Josh Allen. Like this is the week where they have to look at each other

and be like, hey, we have to win this game. And I think they're just going to feed Diggs all game. So I would say Allen has more passing yards. And the next one is Diggs will have more receptions than Kelsey. I would say I would be on the Bills side in each of those. Yeah, I think I'm with you on those. be on the bill side in each of those yeah i'm i think i'm with you on those um i uh the chiefs will score more than 24 and a half points at the bill i think yeah i think the answer is yes i would agree because the bills man they have they can't stop anyone right now it's not their fault per se

but they just have a bunch of injuries um and then the last one of the on here saquon barkley will rush for 71 and a half yards against the Packers. We're on Saquon Barkley unders, Matt, which are close to cashing. I would say I would go with a strong disagree here. What do you think? I love it, man. Let's make sure that we lock in those unders. That's their only path to win.

I don't know why the Giants would try to win this game if they were being honest with themselves um so yeah i'm i'm fine fading the giants in all spots there i do think the six and a half i think you're right the packers i don't think they're gonna that is one of the options the packers will cover the six and a half against the giants i feel like the giants might end up covering but still losing um you know this could be like a 14 to 10 kind of game i feel like cold outside monday night terror no crowd like i feel like it's just going to be a low energy uh performance oh for sure it's that's why again that's why i sort of liked the uh the giants but not not enough to really you know put it in this uh all right man i think we've we've done our job here we have made it through the week we have five we got our vaulted pool done and now we get to just

watch some some football i'm looking forward to it i love it jeff have a great time in new york this weekend uh try to grab a slice of new york pizza at penn station um i saw your instagram post yesterday i was tomorrow that was great i was thinking i was thinking sabaro i was thinking sabaro yeah people were like what i'm like you you don't get it it's okay yeah that's right what's up well give me give me like one thing you're actually gonna do like is there a restaurant is there like a tourist thing you're gonna do like what's so what's on the agenda well so yeah so we're gonna okay so we're going to bryant park to ice skate on friday night with the kids and then we're seeing lion king on saturday we're seeing lion king on saturday um where my daughter wants to go to sephora and zara my son wants to go to the like the eminem museum or something like

that or some chocolate museum or something he's very he's very he's very sugar-minded we're staying at the peninsula so we're right by all the shopping that i hope to avoid my wife having to go there because it's 55 and 5th and then you know all the all the stores are mass and avenue so like i'm trying to avoid as much as possible to make that happen they're all over there they're all like burke burke dorf is right there and it's just gonna be bad for your boy but um no it's it's not that cold either it's cold but not like terribly cold in new New York right now too. So not bad. You know, I'm looking forward to them coming up. The deal was I get to do the Bear Bets podcast here in New York City every week. I'm flying Wednesday morning, fly out Thursday afternoon.

And the tradeoff is they come to New York for a weekend. I do not work. I'm not working Friday or Saturday. I do work Sunday morning, but they fly home Sunday. And that we do a New York weekend because my wife has taken the kids individually the last two years by themselves to New York city. So last year I think she took Alex the year before she took Emmy. So like this, we're now doing this as a family. So hey, look,

we're obviously Jewish. Happy Hanukkah, everyone, by the way. And happy Hanukkah, by the way. But like, you know, there's there is something about like, you know, the Christmas spirit here, right? Like everything's sort of all done up for Christmas and the holidays. And so it's a it's a lot of fun for the kids. They have a great time. I told my wife I got to clear the credit card before she comes up tomorrow. So we'll see how it goes. We have a big purchase coming up, though, in a couple of weeks that I think we'll persuade her from spending a lot of money on bags. So we'll see.

What's that? We'll see what happens. I'll tell you in a few. Offline it. I'll use a corporate term. We'll offline that one. We'll offline that one. All right, cool.

We'll ladder this one into an offline convo sounds good very mysterious how do you do the how do you do the corporate jargon nonsense how do you guys how do you mentally get through that uh you should ask producer nick who's way better at it than i am uh i tend to be more direct and talk like a person and that works really well sometimes and works really poorly in others so usually when it's like the kind of person who needs the jargon i'm like hey meet nick and he's awesome at it uh yeah that could be what it is um by the way can we just can we just talk briefly about nick uh nick's the best i got some texts from him last night that were super funny uh i feel like nick's just been hot i just i want to give

him a shout out on on the heiress of elon musk here on x uh keep it up nick you're doing great uh you could have the wait he's he's mocking elon is what you said no no on on elon's platform i'm giving him credit uh it's it's as big of a platform as i get um but yeah there was we just were looking at this this stupid tiktok last night of uh two guys i don't know their name but they they basically have like a ufc style commentary for glass bottles um that are put in like an octagon and like put on string and like mash into each other. And then when one of them breaks, like a Johnny Walker one breaks, they're like, oh, and they like go crazy. We were like, man, maybe we should make a show with these guys. And we were just doing some good jokes about that.

So I just wanted to give you a little love. I like good jokes. I can't be involved in some good – I like TikTok. I like good jokes. I'm taking up with Gabe. He started it. So all right. Well, we'll loop you in uh i just want to make sure i i i didn't know you guys do tiktoks i'll send you guys some tiktoks i like every day big dude it's a good way to

i don't know if i froze or what oh i froze i don't know we I froze or what? Oh, I froze. I don't know. We both froze. Maybe that's just the signal that it's time to go. It's time. We're done. All right.

We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Bye, everybody.