Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 16

Episode Date: December 23, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back for Week 16's tough NFL slate. Strap in this week and expect them to be taking some ugly games featuring some quarterbacks you may or may not be so familiar with. And this crazy week ends with a pick in the game of the year between the 49ers and the Ravens.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, December 22nd. I'm Jeff Schwartz as Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you and we're on Twitter, YouTube and we're on your podcast platform of choice. Please give us a rating and review. We love to hear back from you guys. You also tweet me at Jeff Schwartz also at mm410 and on Friday we're brought to you by the vaulted app. It's the home of my season long game giving out $14,000 of cash prizes in my pools with 5,000 allocated to the big game at the end of the season that's vaulted vltd plays you can store your sports predictions participation cash prize pools without any entry fees improve your smarter than your friends and myself with the vaulted challenge features you guys know by now we have a vaulted pool each and every week go to the app look up jeff that's jeff for a G, G-E-O-F-F. Find my pool. We're giving away cash prizes each week. It's free to enter. $500 given away each week, Matt.

20 questions. You answer, agree or disagree with a score of 1 to 10 for your confidence. We'll also put in our five predictions at the end of this show into the Vaulted app. Go check that out. At the end of the show, we'll go over the vaulted questions that we like for the pool this week. As you guys know, on Friday, we do our wagering preview for the national football league.

There are games this week on Saturday. There are games on Sunday. There are games on Monday. We were one, two and two last week. The two Matt, the two were upsetting because we both had the underdog as

they were up 17-3 in the fourth quarter and both pushed at plus 3 did the Bears and did the Vikings. So we're still at 55%, 41, 28, and 6. Actually, no, we're better than that.

I did my math wrong on that one. We're at 59%, which is what you, I think, texted me earlier. So we're still kicking. We're still doing well. And this week, warning, guys. The quarterbacks we're going to wager on. Guys that are not on your fantasy team, hopefully not. Correct.

They're not guys that you watched in college. It's ugly, Matt, but this is the way we do it, buddy. If this were easy, everyone would be 59% in Week 16, Jeff, but that's not the case. That's why we're here. That's why you're here. Good to see you, man. It's good to – we'll maybe hear from your special guests later in the

show um but yeah let's get into this ugly week 16 uh starting right away with an afc north battle jake browning suddenly a road favorite in pittsburgh the steelers are getting three points at home this is 4 30 tomorrow eastern uh and you're giving me that face as if this is a hard decision this is not a hard decision okay okay okay we don't have to even discuss it the player as always is the best coach of all time as a home underdog mike tomlin against jake browning as a road favorite without jamar chase or DJ reader in a rematch of a game that Pittsburgh already won in Cincinnati. We're done.

Okay. Oh my God. This is just, because the Steelers stink. They're terrible, Matt. And we just, oh my God.

I mean, this is the right play. We've done this for years. It always works. Steelers back against the wall. There's no way they're going to win. Jeff Schwartz is on here telling you that they stink, and then they pull out some 17-16 win with a Chris Bonneville field goal late,

and you're like, yep, plus three was the call. It's up to three now, too. Oh, my God. Yeah. Oh, boy, yeah. OK. All right. I mean. I do wish sometimes. That we were able to talk about these games in a little more football way. There's no football way of this game. You just take Mike Thomas underdog at home. Like you just have to do it. There's no football reason. way of this game. You just take Mike Thomas' underdog at home. You just have to do it. There's no

football reason. It's that they are always good at home, back against the wall. And the Jake Browning thing, yeah, it has to end at some point. We've seen throughout the season backup quarterbacks start fast and then sort of take a dip.

The dip is coming now. It's coming this week against Pittsburgh. Miss Trubisky. Oh, no, Mason Rudolph. It's Mason Rudolph this week for the Steelers. Mason Rudolph this week for the Steelers. Possibly the best quarterback on that roster, Jeff. It's not impossible.

Pittsburgh plus three in Sharpie, right? This is in Sharpie? Not even maybe. We can see if we can beat it, but there's some pretty ugly games this week. I just want to say that the Steelers have lost three in a row to three bad teams the bangles have won three in a row against three playoff teams like what do we expect to change out of that like this is this is just like the most obvious spot um and if we're wrong fine we took a bet that wins

like 65 percent of the time historically, uh, which is an even better clip than us. So, uh, this is another, like, this is by the way, we don't always go this way in this season. It's actually been kind of good to be on the public side, but, uh, it's 41% of the tickets, 72% of the money on Pittsburgh this week. So a majority of the bets are coming in on pits on since he is a road favorite uh they're gonna get caught this week uh steelers plus three uh okay next game i don't oh god this game buffalo

at the chargers this is a mirror test uh the chargers are getting 12 and a half points here in l.a you have to bet on the Chargers. Like, okay, so a couple things. There's some number that I saw Stucky tweet out that was like, if teams lose by 30 the next week, they cover some outrageous percentage. Let me explain why that is. It's a pride thing, right? Like, we're professional athletes.

And when you get blown out in this – we'll get to Dallas' game later against Miami because I'll sort of have some of the same logic there, Matt, is there's a prideful factor. Even if you're the backup, they lost 63-21. That's Ohio State, Maryland. That's Oregon Cal. That's Oregon Cal. I mean, that's Alabama, Mississippi State.

You know what I mean? That's a college score. That's Oregon Cal. I mean, that's Alabama, Mississippi State. You know what I mean? That's a college score. That's not a professional score. They're the Raiders. You didn't lose that to the Niners or the Chiefs or the Bills to the Raiders. And so there is a... I don't believe in this. We talked about this dead coach bounce, which actually

happened a lot this year. The next week the team with the interim coach wins. But there's a pridefulness factor to this team when you get your butts kicked, like they did last week. And, yeah, Easton Stick is playing like so be it. But the best part is no more Brandon Staley. No more Brandon Staley, Matt. And I don't even care who the other coaches are.

Staley's not there anymore. we gotta do it um you know chargers plus 12 and a half yeah we do um it's not great jeff i'll just say that i i mean here's the the things that are potentially helpful um chargers are coming off a they have extra rest which is nice um the bills have been on this sort of heater of a schedule run uh so now they potentially could have a little bit of a letdown spot um teams as double digit underdogs after 35 plus point losses over the last 20 years are 19 four and, and 1. Home dogs, 60.8% since 2020 of over 7. This is a situational spot. This is not a Easton Stick podcast. I'm pretty confident in saying, but this is just purely a, hey,

it's a team with a new coach. They clearly quit on their last one, like you said. Here's a chance to just sort of like get i don't know six extra points like if last week didn't happen is this like i don't know if last seriously is this like a four four point swing because of last week like oh uh if easton stick is playing and they don't get blown out it's probably at nine and a half yeah so a three four point line swing um based on a really bad Thursday game where the coach got fired after. So it's a smart play.

It's not pretty. We're not going to enjoy it. Saturday is going to be rough. But the question is, will our Saturday be even rougher? And that would be if we took Minnesota getting three points at home against the Lions. Another sort of attractive home dog to me, Jeff. I'm curious what you think here.

This game is Sunday now. Oh, this is Sunday now. Excuse me. Yeah, there's only two Saturday games and a bunch of bowl games on Saturday, by the way. You got to take Minnesota, right? I mean, you look at whether a defense has played this season, they easily should have beat the Bengals. I mean, that was an atrocious way to end that football game.

The Lions are not as good on the road this season, but that happens to be on the outside. They're not outside this game, right? The Baltimore game, the Bears game. Now, this game is inside again. But, you know, it's a vision opponent. Getting three points, three and a half would have been better like it was earlier in the week but I just feel like this is a spot where you just you take the

Vikings right their offensive line is really good to the Lions pass rush and defensive line will not be able to to work as well which allows the the Vikings to get some yard to have weapons we know that the the Vikings do my concern though is that the Vikings pressure a ton can they hold up in the back end against the lions away array of weapons matt this out of all the ones we've we're going to take with these ugly sides this one worries me the most yeah all right that's fair um the the thing that could potentially help us here is uh i can't find the exact stat in front of me but uh the vikings blitz most in the league by far i think to make up for their personnel deficiencies especially in that secondary jared goff is one of the two worst i think he's the 31st quarterback

this year yep um so that's not a great matchup for them. The Vikings, you mentioned we were on them last week. Nick Mullins, not great. Not a great quarterback to back. But yeah, I mean, it's just, I think that it's a bad matchup of offense and defense. The Lions have been really sputtering lately, and it just feels like a decent spot. i don't know like the beating denver last week at home was nice but this vikings team man they don't they they haven't gone i think they may have found something with ty chandler maybe last week they just sort of know

how to like play these tight games like it's always like you look at their last four yeah three point loss three point win two point loss one three-point win, two-point loss, one-point win. I'm sorry, one-point loss. It's just tight. Yeah, I like this one. I do feel like these teams play again in two weeks, which is kind of odd. But, yeah, I'm fine with this one if you are. So Mason Rudolph, Easton Stick, and Nick Mullins.

Awesome. Good start, everybody. Welcome to my podcast. Hope you enjoy it. Thanks for listening. All right. To be fair, a lot of these games freaking stink, so it is what it is. Yeah.

We're going to breeze through a few right here. And the good ones, by the way, you just don't wager on them. There's no, in my opinion, no edge on some of these games. Okay, so continue on the – let's go to a bad game. Yeah, let's just spend zero seconds on Commander's Jets, right? Jets laying three at home. The only question I have is why why i don't understand why the jets are favored by three that's my only i mean i'm not thinking washington absolutely not

but why are they favored at all by three um i think because it's possible that ron rivera might be tanking like actually like i don't know I think we shared this in our group thread. I don't know who shared it. Did you watch the breakdown of the PFT comments or did of Washington's last like four minutes? I sent it to you guys. It's unbelievable. So walk us through that.

Okay, so basically they had the ball on like the three-yard line with four minutes left down two touchdowns and scored with a minute, like 30 left. Right. And had multiple timeouts. Any timeouts.

They, yeah, it was, it was absolutely atrocious. And so Jeff and I, last week, for those of you that were following along, we bet on the Rams like six and a half.

And I was, no, we weren't even really texting during that window because i thought it was over yeah yeah so they put in brissette and brissette immediately i think for like six straight plays you just threw to mclaurin and all of them were like 30 yard first downs and it was like guys like this is not that fucking hard like give the ball to the best player and then they get down there and it's like wait a second they might score and then they could be down like the play now is you go for two right like you go you go for the two and you know can you win what are your options right and i'm like so they score

and i'm like jeff they washington might go for two and by the time you even answered ron rivera looked at his assistant coach and said, what do I do here? Went for one. The kick got blocked. And the onside kick went out of bounds. And I was just like, this team is so terrible. Like, the Jets are at least trying to win. Washington has no, like, they're not even a professional outfit.

And also, Brissette is not starting sam howell is still going to start i assume which is the smart football thing we have to see what this guy is you need as much data as you can so washington should have traded brissette gotten a pick he could have been the jets starter and the jets might have actually been in the playoff conversation if aaron rogers hadn't held them hostage all year, but enough Washington Jets. Please do not bet on this game. I beg you. This one, if you bet it, God bless you. It's the Panthers and Jeff's hometown of Charlotte hosting the Packers, who everyone still can't figure out after their Kansas City win and then some just like strange games the last couple of weeks. I don't know if we can ride the Panthers roller coaster again,

but they are probably the side here. Yeah, they're absolutely the side here, but I'm not touching. Look, that game against the Falcons, Desmond Ritter doesn't throw the interception, and the Falcons at least get a field goal there, and they're up five. The Panthers probably don't come down and score a touchdown, right? Like, it's just they threw the interception. The Panthers went 92 yards, kicked a field goal, won right? Like, it's just the three interception, the Panthers with 92 yards, kicked a field goal, won the game.

I think I'd stay away from this one. I mean, the Panthers are still the 31st in DVOA. They're not a good football team. There's other better wagers here. Look, I'd just rather bet other things, other teams. Yeah. Okay, thank God we're not betting the Panthers. Both the Panthers and the Packers are on our no-wager list,

so that should have been an easy one. Cleveland and the resurgent Joe Flacco, once again, is a road favorite in Houston. No C.J. Stroud, right? I don't know the latest today, but he's looking doubtful. Is that official? I'm not sure. I'll look at the latest.

They would not be great i'll look at the latest they would not they would not be favored by by they would not be getting three points of straddle's play uh yeah so it's like big impact on the rookie of the year race weirdly this could be if pukunuku has a good week it might be a good time to bet on him but anyways oh we have a hundred dollars left over don't we still but that might not be up right now though the odds might not be up right now um well i think i have a good use of i have a good use of that money later let's uh let's let's hold that one um i uh i don't feel good about the texans in this spot do you i don't i i don't feel good about the Texans in this spot. Do you? I don't. I don't, right? I mean, I don't feel bad, but I don't feel good. I mean, this Joe Flacco thing is getting a little bit ridiculous, I think.

You know, they covered last week in that sort of in in that crazy game against the bears but like they did not their defense held up better than i think we expected um but like their offense like is this sustainable like i i just don't know well they seem to have really figured something out at the end of that game last week but they sort of won their bad game, which is important. I mean, is Falk going to play worse? I think it's certainly possible, right? I mean, he certainly can play worse, but they sort of won their bad game.

And Houston's defense is 19th in DVOA. I mean, it's not – it's average, right? A little below average, obviously. But the Stroud thing, like case Keenum against this defense is not a wager I got to make. I mean, if they're down eight, nine, ten, two minutes left to go get us a cover, is Case Keenum doing this? I think the answer is no. Yeah. What a job by Stefanski this year.

I mean, the fact that we're talking about the Browns as a road favorite with Joe Flacco against another playoff team, probably, back of quarterback or not. It's just amazing. All right. So I think that's probably a pass. If we need a fifth, we could come back to it. Colts-Falcons, no chance. The Falcons are laying two and a half. I'll just cut you off. No way. Nick, can't do it. Love my guy, Taylor Heineke. Can't do it. You've got the craziest look in your eye, though. I mean, at plus one, it was great. But, I mean, I don't know. I liked Atlanta. I said on Monday from our Fox Sports article, I took Atlanta plus one.

I mean, minus two and a half is a different story than plus one. Plus one, I think, is – I don't know if it's not through a key number, but the way the Falcons play football games, I'll take that one point over two. I mean, they play games at 9-7. You know what I mean? They play games at 23-21, 24-23. I think Atlanta's a side here, but we're just –

they're on the no wager list every year, Matt, and they continue to be on that list for a reason. I do think they win and cover this game, but I don't think I'm touching this one. Not this number. Earlier in the week, yeah, I would have taken plus one. I get. It's not through key numbers, but I think this spot,

you just stay away from it, man. You just stay away from it. Yeah, Atlanta's the side, but I can't do it. I mean, the fact that Taylor Heineke is three and a half points better than Ritter is insane, truly. Okay, let's pass on that one. No more ink needs to be spilled on Gardner-Manchus Colts.

Okay, Seattle going to Tennessee. The Titans, I see a three and a half, are getting three and a half at home. This is traditionally, this is one we at least have to discuss. Tomlin is a home dog. The second all-time as a home dog, I think, is Braybel.

Insane historic stats. He wins these games outright. Looks like Tannehill's the quarterback this week, right? So I don't think that's necessarily a downgrade from Levis, if that's how that shakes out. I don't know. Should we put Tennessee in the mix here? The answer is yes.

But the problem that I think we have is Tennessee's, I believe, eliminated from the playoffs, right? So they're not – I'm going to make sure right now I have that correct. They are, in fact, eliminated. So how hard are they going to play in this game? Like if they were fighting for a playoff spot, plus three is great. I think it's still the right – I'm assuming plus three and a half because I think it's still the right side.

Seattle off a big win on Monday – it was Monday Night Football, right? Monday Night Football. Yeah. On the Monday night football, right? Monday night football. Yeah. On the road to Tennessee, a team that, dude, every game they battle and claw and fight. That's just who they are. And this is a spot where you just fade a team off a big win who played on Monday night football.

Yeah. Seattle's 2-5 on the road and 5-2 at home. Titans 1-6 away, 4-3 at home. Just a situational, like you said, short week off of a huge win. It's the spot, but it's like, does the team get up for it? It's a little risky. I believe that Vrabel will have them up for it no matter what, because it's Vrabel.

And also, if Tannehill is playing like they'll be up for it right like if they're playing Malik Willis and they're in like let's just try everything out like if Tannehill's playing like they have to approach the game professionally um so I the hook is the hook is nice I'm surprised very nice get that um 85% of the money on the Titans and 68% of the bets. Yeah, it's not my favorite. It's not my favorite. We're sort of just taking these this week because we know they've hit in the past. It's a traditionally really good spot.

Yeah, it's just a trend. But also, too, like – here's the thing, too, though. I don't feel good about any of the favorites either. It's not like I can even make the case for Seattle minus 3.5. I mean, good luck if you take that minus 3.5. I don't really know about any of the favorites either. It's not like I can even make the case for Seattle minus three and a half. I mean, good luck if you take them minus three and a half. I don't really know what the case would be. So, like, I can make a case for the Lions over the Vikings, but, I mean, it's hard to make those cases for a lot of these teams.

Yeah, it is. It's a strange week, and it's a week where, like, some teams are out of it. Some teams are licking their wounds. Some teams are hot hot and are they're two of the hot teams are playing each other um it's gonna be it's gonna be an interesting week we just remember we just got to get to keep our cliff jeff three and two four and one that'd be great um what we're gonna do buddy the next game is is what what an interesting game this Florida matchup is. Jags at Bucs. Bucs, man, they're a fun team.

I feel like we debated putting them in to make the playoffs thing, and I don't think we ever did. But they've been a fun team to watch this year. They're two-and-a-half-point favorites against a banged-up Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. I don't know, man. I have no read here. I have no read either because, you know, what if Baker Mayfield just kind of has a bad game,

like a Baker Mayfield game after having the best game of his career? You know, it's just like I don't know what they are. Plus, we've been off Jacksonville for a while now. You just can't wager on Jacksonville. Like two teams you don't know what you're getting week to week. So I just would say no. Just no, not going to do it. We have other games we like, other games that we can highlight.

I would not make a play in this game, either direction. Lawrence, still dealing with the protocol. Doug Peterson today said uh he practiced today he said it's better than a coin flip uh is what espn summarized his take as so i don't know don't love the odds if trevor lawrence plays uh i'll bet this line moves down quite a bit i feel like this is a uh trevor lawrence is compromised line yeah um but yeah not enough info, I think, for us here. Even if we did have all the info, I'm not sure what we'd do. Okay.

Great game. Second best game of the week. The Cowboys and the Dolphins, two teams that can't beat a team over 500. Sounds like you like Dallas. Right now, the Dolphins are laying a point or a point and a half in Miami. So here's my reason for this one, Matt. You mentioned it. One team, one of these two teams has won a single game against a team over 500.

That was the Cowboys over the Eagles. Otherwise, these teams have not beat anyone over 500, and they've had those issues. So there's a couple ways you lose in the National Football League, right? You lose a game because a team is better than you. We saw that Rams and Saints last night, right? Rams was better than the Saints. They lost.

It sucks, but you live with that, right? You fly home from Los Angeles. If you're a Saints player, you're like, ah, they just got us. You know, they're better than us. There's other ways you lose. But the second way is you get physically dominated the line of scrimmage, which is what happened with the Cowboys and the Bills. The Bills physically dominated the Cowboys.

And when you're a good football team, and Dallas is good, they're not great, they're good. The next week you come out with a fury and a passion and a fire, and you come and just try to kick the crap out of your opponent, right? That's what always happens in National Football League, especially with good teams. And so that's why I lean Dallas in this game, because Miami has shown the inability against those type of teams to win those games, right? Tyreek Hill, questionable, probably plays, I believe,

as we're recording this on Friday. The concern with the Cowboys, Matt, is that their left tackle might be out and their right guard might be out. They're two best offensive linemen. And so if that's the case, I think we're no i'm not gonna wager on this but i like dallas plus the point a half here i think they just physically bounce back in this game yeah that's interesting i think that um i yeah i don't really know what to say here. I mean, the, everyone agrees with you. The public is on Miami slightly. That's about half and half, but 86% of the money's on Dallas.

A couple of things had me interested in Miami. The first is that like, first of all, like oddly the AFC has dominated the NFC this year, which who knows why that is but it's just been like a trend that's worth kind of kind of taking into account um dallas you know their road splits versus miami's home splits are dramatic uh dallas is way better at home as a favorite they're way worse at on the road as dogs miami's great as at home great as uh like these small favorites um you know they're it's it's a tricky matchup i think a lot of it depends on health you mentioned

some offensive line injuries like we're not sure what miami is right now we're not sure what dallas is right now um i feel like this game i for some reason, I just feel like Miami is the tougher team to figure out defensively. Like for Dallas, I just don't know if Dallas is going to be able to just contain all these different threats. Miami also just hasn't had a tough game that they've had to deal with in a while. Their last three were Jets, Titans, Commanders. had like a tough game that they've had to deal with in a while their last three were jets titans commanders like it does feel like they could open their bag up here a little where dallas has just gotten you know just got their ass kicked last week and played a really tough game the week before physically at least so i don't know i i think i'm not really convinced on dallas if you

love them i would take no um i don't love them because i really have a feel I like other games I think so it's a maybe for me okay um interesting that we we're not really sure there but neither is Vegas that's pretty much a pick um let's see the next game is Cardinals Bears um a game of two teams that don't matter but are fun to watch. Bears are laying four points here. Why? I did not consider this game until right now. Go ahead. Yeah, yeah.

Why are the Bears laying four points, Matt, to anybody? That's my argument. I'm not sure. That's my argument. Like, I like Arizona plus four here. Me too. What have the Bears done to signal that they should be a four-point favorite over anybody? Huh.

Nothing. Nothing. No, the Cardinals aren't very good. I get it. But the Bears lost. They beat the Lions. That was a good win. But that was a Jared Goff-like, you know, just sinks outside game.

They beat the Vikings 12-10. Guess what? That would cover. We get a cover in this game if they won 12-10. In that game, if you recall, the Vikings had a bazillion turnovers because they're a turnover machine this season. Justin Fields, good plays, bad plays. Tyler Murray is better.

He's returning from his ACL. He's not as good this year as he's been in years past, but he's better in general. So, I don't know. I like Arizona plus four here. I do worry about going outside in the cold for Arizona, notoriously, you know, home dome team. But Arizona plus four, man, I'll take it.

I actually really like this one. And one of the trends is Kyler Murray, 19-9-2 against the spread as a road dog. This is the spot where you always want to take him. It's a road dog, I mean, against a bad team, too. The Bears have moments. And then what ends up happening at the end of the game is the exact kind of scenario that Kyler has always been helpful for, which is like these crazy back doors.

They almost got it against San Francisco last week, the Cardinals. So I actually, like, I did not really consider this one, but now that I'm looking at it, it's like, yeah, this is the spot to take Kyler. You can fade the Bears lane more than a field goal. I don't think they should be more than a field goal favorites over anyone. If this was the Panthers, would you feel great about the Bears lane? So yeah, give me the Cardinals.

I think that's a nice play. I mean, like I said, that's why I like them over Dallas. The Dallas one I like, but I don't love it. I think they win that game. But liking a wager like Dallas doesn't mean that you're going to wager on it. You know what I mean? There's other factors involved here. I think Arizona plus four here is a good bet to make.

Yeah. And also like we're going to have an opinion on these good games, whether we're putting them in the contest or not is a separate issue. All right. Next up, not a good game. The Patriots are in Denver. Snow was predicted the last time I heard anything about this game. Broncos are laying seven.

You can't possibly take a side in this, right? No, no, no. There's nothing. Let's not waste our listeners' time. Bailey Zappi in the snow on the road getting a touchdown? No chance. Christmas Day, Monday morning here, Pacific time. Your Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point favorites against the Raiders.

I know that we are not going to take the Raiders, but we are sure as hell not taking the Chiefs. No. No. I mean, like, this game is going to be 27-13, 27-17, like 30-20. It's going to be just like a ho-hum win. They're going to win the game, and we'll just be like, oh, the Chiefs won again.

They won the division. This will be the eighth straight year, whatever it is. Yeah, so this is just nothing for me. It's really nice that the Chiefs get like a three-month bye before the playoffs. They needed some more good luck in Kansas City. They lose to Philly. They lose to the Packers. They lose to the Bills.

Their other quarterbacks they they drew Aiden McConnell, Mack Jones, Aiden O'Connell again, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick. Man, tough one for Kansas City. Let's hope something breaks their way one day. All right, moving on to Giants-Eagles. Good Lord. Eagles laying 13 to 13.5. We can't, right? We can't do it we can't take it totally actually i don't think the giants are eliminated yet i think they are technically alive um but the the technically alive is not a great way to describe anything the the tommy cutlets thing is over which we thought it would be over.

We said last week we bet on them, but it was more of a fate of the Saints, right? The Derek Carr fate is a favorite. And the Giants were just atrocious. I mean, they're just – come on. Tommy Cutlets – Philly has not played great. Don't get me wrong. It's a big number, but I'm not betting on Tommy Cutlets on the road here. Yeah, this feels like it could be the Philly get right game too.

Yes, absolutely. The play, if you're bad, if you're in your picks pool is just to grab the points divisional or, you know, two teams that know each other. Well, just take the points, but not for me on this show, at least. All right. Game of the week, game of the year, probably baltimore going to san francisco uh san francisco is laying up to six now um i'm curious where you are here um well we're not wager on this game first of all um or are we i don't know i don? I don't know. I don't think we are. The Niners sort of feel like a freight train right now, Matt. And I don't know if the Ravens have enough to stop the train.

The Ravens, to me, a lot of times, it's sort of still Lamar trying to save us mode on offense, right? And I don't think that is good enough to beat the 49ers in this game. If Baltimore's defense doesn't win first down and you get the Niners in second and third and short, man, Brock Perry's going to tear them to shreds. And Brock Perry's been playing great, by the way. So, I mean, it's nothing, you know, he'll play great if he's on third down too. But I don't – this is the dead zone. Five and a half is the Vegas dead zone. But the Niners win this game by a touchdown would not surprise me at all.

I agree. However, Baltimore is my side here. And I'm looking something up to tag this on, but I might ask Nick to do it. So basically a couple of things here. Lamar is a dog, first of all. Right. He is 11-2 against the spread as an underdog.

He's 31-35 as a favorite. Harbaugh, second best coach in the last 20 years as a dog only behind Mike Tomlin. Ravens, 19-5 as a dog since 2018. Those are all kind of the same stat. This is the second biggest disadvantage, or this is the second biggest dog of Lamar Jackson's career. He was a 6.5 point dog at Kansas city and a four and a half point dog at Kansas city. He lost those games by three and five.

So he didn't cover the chiefs one, although he might've, if he got that number, the thing that the thing with Baltimore is not that they can't keep up. I think it's, they start so hot that then they end up giving games away. But another thing that's sort of been kind of interesting about baltimore is they've always had success going against nfc teams like lamar i can't i can't find his record in front of me um but lamar again against teams in the nfc the teams that don't see him that often

he's different like he's not kyler murray he's got a different skill set that no one else in the league really has and the san francisco defense like gets a lot of credit but even last week uh they played the cardinals they were up let's see they were up they were up the whole game right they ended up winning by 16 um but they were up like 35 to to uh 16 at the end of the third quarter. Their defense couldn't get off the field. Arizona averaged six yards per play, 230 rushing yards. The San Francisco defense was on the field for 72 plays. They were outgained by the Cardinals in a game that they won by 16. So their defense, I think they've gotten they've gotten some injuries up front, um,

that I think have really impacted their running game defensively. Uh, and I think Baltimore, I think that, I think the Keith Mitchell thing is actually bigger than people realize. Like, I think that he was like becoming a really big part of that offense, but I just feel like Baltimore, like it's not, I don't think they're going to get blown out. They don't, they just, it doesn't happen. It's, it's never happened. And don't think, in Lamar's entire career. So I would say that just getting the six, it's a nice number. I think it's going to be close. I think Baltimore has a pretty fine side to be on here.

You're not saying that they're going to win and become the best team in the NFL by default, but I think that they show up for this, and I like their coaching staff. And by the last thing, sorry, in the NFL by default, but I think that they show up for this. And I like their coaching staff. And by the last thing, sorry, in the past, this is the spot where you'd want to fade Kyle Shanahan. Now that Brock Purdy's been there, they've kind of turned this around. But going into last year, this is where we would always fade Kyle Shanahan as like a

three-point or more home favorite. They just, they never are good in that spot. They're always good as dogs. They're always good as dogs. They're always good as short favorites. But laying five and a half, six points to maybe the best team in the league feels like a spot where you can get some value back on Baltimore, who I don't think has the respect that San Francisco does. Okay, so here's the question. 19-1 against the NFC, Lamar.

We have Pittsburgh, the Chargers, the Titans, the Vikings, the Cardinals. It's five we both like. So we're throwing one out for Baltimore or for Dallas, both teams that we both individually like. I would say we're not, right? I don't know. Thanks to Nick, he found us 19-1 lamar against the nfc how crazy is that it's like it's he's just he's just different like i feel like if they ever make the super

bowl if they're just a smarter like a smarter play um i the tennessee one is tough but it's probably i mean it's the right side. Can you read them again? We have Tennessee plus three and a half. We have Pittsburgh plus three. Chargers plus 12 and a half. Tennessee plus three and a half. Minnesota plus three. Arizona plus four. The Chargers one is so ugly.

And then Baltimore plus six plus six oh yeah i i think i'm on the miami side if that one's that's fine we can throw a dallas um here's here's another option so the way to play this from a betting angle is... So the MVP race right now looks like Purdy's going to win it. If Baltimore wins this game or loses heroically, Lamar's the new favorite, right? Like, it's not going to be Hill. It's not going to be Dak.

It's not going to be Mahomes. If the Ravens win this game or come close, it's not going to be back it's not going to be mahomes if the ravens win this game or come close it's lamar he becomes like huh right who are his receivers again like who are his running backs right they lost jk dobbins they lost mark andrews so i think the play here if you don't want to do baltimore i think we burn our at least 50 of our last 100 on the Mar-a-Lago MVP. The current odds and etc. are plus 450. So I kind of feel like that could be the way we play this. But I don't know. I don't need to take Easton's stick or the Titans.

But I feel like I'm more in on this than you are. I love it because this is the way to play this game. If you think Baltimore is going to win, don't take them on the money line. Don't take the points. You take Lamar Jackson MVP because if he wins this game to your point, the odds are going to flip. So the

value we get on a Lamar Jackson wager now is, in my opinion, worth it because even if, to your point, they play close game too, the odds are going to tighten up. If they get blown out, we're out. And we also would be out on Baltimore plus 5.5 anyways, right, if they get blown out.

So I answer the way you play this. So, yeah, put $50 on that. We'll save $50 for something else. We're doing okay in these. The Tyreek Hill injury kind of got us because that offensive play of the year plus 2,000 would have been big for us. That would have been big.

But we're not going to get that this year, unfortunately. It would have. Yeah, I mean, Tyreek, that's another reason. Tyreek is not done yet. There could be a really big game this week. Nick mentions Josh Allen and McCfree uh 12-1 i don't think mcafree wins it no matter what um the fact that purdy's had this much of the narrative and josh allen is i know that i think nick has a is a buffalo future that um is is worth giving him some credit for but i

i don't think josh Allen can overcome the turnover thing and the just shaky start to the season. They're still not a playoff team, technically. I just think that it's one of these two guys. And whoever wins this game, that's who it's going to be. Okay. So, Pittsburgh plus three, Chargers plus 12.5, Tennessee plus 3.5, Minnesota plus three, Arizonazona plus four those are

five do we want to take out the chargers for baltimore i mean that is that is fucking brutal i mean or tennessee like they're both i mean the chargers won jeez and we can get six for baltimore by the way okay um but if you but look okay well look if you're not with me on baltimore tell you tell me i honestly i can't tell i i mean i think baltimore's a good side i do okay so which are the ones, you would rather take out Tennessee or Easton Stick? I'd rather take out Easton Stick, right? Ugh. I don't even

know who Tennessee's playing. They're playing, it's just Brable as a three and a half point all-in. They're playing Seattle off that huge win. Is Geno playing? 50-50. Let's see what the latest is for Geno. Full participant in practice today, Geno playing? 50-50? Let's see what the latest is for Geno. Full participant in practice today, Geno. So, I mean, I would be fine taking out Houston Stick.

I could see Buffalo just pacing the Chargers, but it's ugly. All right. So. Like, Houston state could suck pittsburgh plus three tennessee plus three and a half minnesota plus three arizona plus four baltimore plus six that's our five sounds good to me yeah mason rudolph ryan tannahill nick mullins carly murray lamar jackson who we went from good to bad there Yeah. Mason Rudolph, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Mullins, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson. We went from good to bad there. I mean, bad to good there.

All right. We'll take a break. We'll be back with Vaulted, and we'll talk a little bit more about Matt's fatherhood so far. I need an update. I haven't heard a couple weeks from Matt about update. We'll do that in just a second, guys. Are you smarter than your friends?

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because as you know i am smarter than you i will be using vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week so join vaulted and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me. Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, and remember to use the code Jeff, that's G-E-O-F-F, so you can see my predictions and play along. Guys, I want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game

I have been playing this season. Prize Picks is a skill-based, real-money daily fantasy sports game. How does it work? You pick two to six players, and if they will go more or less than the Prize Picks projection, you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry. So go to Prize Picks and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. It's so easy to use. I can make my picks in less than 60 seconds.

The depositing was simple and straightforward. They even just added Apple Pay, so I was able to get up in minutes and start playing. At PrizePix, you aren't competing against other people. It's just you versus the projections available instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better. All right, guys, we're back. We're going to go over the vaulted picks. Remember, guys, go to the vaulted app. It's VLTD.

Find my pool. That's Jeff with a G. G-E-O-F-F. Enter the pool. Free to enter. Cash prizes. We have 20 questions. You agree or disagree with them. You set a. Enter the pool. Free to enter. Cash prizes. We have 20 questions.

You agree or disagree with them. You set a value to each one, 1 to 10. Just always do 10. It's much better that way. And the winner of this, whoever finishes higher than me as well, gets entered in the big game pool. We're giving out $5,000 for the day of the big game, the last game of the NFL season. All right, Matt, let's go over some of these that we like here.

So here's one. Bryce Young will have more total touchdowns than Jordan Love. Disagree. Like, come on. Any Bryce Young number, you just disregard and you wager against. I think that's a good piece of business jeff um a very good piece of business i will say bryson's looked a little better last week tough game winning drive in the rain i was really happy for him uh granted it was the ugliest game i've ever watched but it was nice nice to see

him at that moment um jamir gibbs will have more rush years at david montgomery in that game um probably yeah this is like yes there's a lot of there's a lot of props in this game um and i think what i think the way that there's a sam report over touchdowns uh there's justin jefferson's receiving yards there's gibbs there's one runrond. I think Minnesota... I don't think that the Justin Jefferson return has been talked about enough, and that's another reason why I think we like Minnesota. I think whether or not he goes for

over 97.5, the Lions defense stinks, and TJ Hawkinson now is the third option behind his relatives to Addison, whose company was amazing last week, and they seem to have found running back to you're like oh i think okay i would probably go over for justin jefferson's amount of time to say and then um i think yes it makes sense too because like you said um

first christmas i mean i'm trying to think of like any big updates like down mainly like i think with this and he's like so i went back to work it off so I think I was in the office I felt like when I came home um going down here another funnel like DK Metcalf he's like we have a title like this game but kind of like side eyes right like Hopkins you left the house for does that mean that six hours today full six hour one day at Blue Duck people like not sure where you think you've been playing during the day I am your 12 pound boss Does that mean that Hop is having a bigger game? It's a full six hour work day at Blue Duck. People like Tannehill and Hopkins. I'm not sure where you think you've been playing during the day. I am your 12 pound boss. They're playing to stay in the league.

You did not clear this exit of the house with me, but it's been hot. You say a full six hour work day. Good for you. Yeah. Another word I like too. Yeah, that's about twice as much as Hank gets in a day, but it's not very much. But yeah, no, he's doing great. You've got some family in for the holidays and stuff. And the holidays feel a lot different with the baby, right?

Everything feels a little different. But the main bullet point of two months in is four hours of sleep is way better than two hours of sleep. But it is way worse than four hours of sleep. You look more refreshed. You look like you've gotten some sleep. And you haven't been texting me all hours of sleep, but it is way worse than two hours of sleep. You look more refreshed. You look more refreshed. You look like you got some sleep. And you haven't been texting me all hours of the day either. So I feel like your sleep schedule is like- I've got it down, man.

I do my prep for this podcast in my overnight feed. Like I listen to other sports betting podcasts and read stuff from like three to four in the morning. And then I wake up and I'm like, what was this stat about Jared Goff against the Blitz? Like it's all just garbage while I have a baby in a bottle in my hand. Is that your feed or Jack's feed? Por que no los dos.

Sometimes, Jeff, when a baby's screaming at you and there's like a little leftover kettle corn or something like that, you grab a handful at four in the morning and you regret it later. I love it. I'm sure you can relate. But you've got a new addition to your family too. Some people declare themselves parents in this role, but I'm curious if we have a guest appearance to make here.

He is knocked out right now. He's right behind my chair. He's like dreaming. He's moving and stuff. That's amazing. So Jeff got a puppy. Yeah. Tell us.

Tell us the whole story. Last week you teased the new edition. Yeah. Well, yeah. So we got him on camera a little bit Monday with Gabe. But German Shepherd puppy. He's nine months old. He's very obedient.

Except the one thing so far that we've learned, like when he goes from zero to 100 pretty fast, like he gets really, really excited to like be a puppy sometimes. And I don't think he was allowed to be much of a puppy at the farm. And he'll just like go and just like just start being like nuts. And he's a big boy. And so he's just a puppy. Remember, he's still a puppy.

He's still adolescent. Like he's going to do like, he doesn't do anything. And so he's just a puppy. Remember, he's still a puppy. He's still adolescent. Like he's going to do like, he doesn't do anything. He just gets very, very excited. And he's awesome. The crate training is fine. I mean, he whines and cries, whatever. It's part of life with a dog,

but he's been great so far. How about this though, Matt? We'll end with this. Wife and kids out of town this weekend. They're in Whistler skiing. So by myself. So I get to make every meal I've ever wanted in my life and watch football all weekend and hang out with the new puppy i mean like just living the dream buddy living the dream that sounds unbelievable

it's the kind of thing if you're listening to this when you're in your early 20s you're like why wouldn't you like want to go out like why wouldn't you want to like go do it's like no this is it like you've got your castle you've your castle. You've got your steed by your side. You've got your grill. You've got your two dishwashers. You're ready to rock. I am going after this to the pasta store to buy fresh pasta to make a shrimp and kind of like calamari and spicy red sauce dish tonight.

So I can't wait to go to the pasta store, get some fresh pasta, and go to the grocery store. I'll take Bubba with me in the car. I'll just make my own quiet house tonight, make my own dinner. I'll probably put some money on the Georgia Tech bowl game tonight. I don't know what direction. Watch a little bowl game. Watch another episode of Reacher just by myself.

I might get the hot tub going by myself. Have the bestest little cigar. I don't know. Who knows? I'll buy myself. Cigar. This is reminding me of Mad Dog Russo's Dream Saturday. Oh, yeah.

He's like, first of all, I'm going to take a run. Then I'm going to have half a gummy. I'm going to walk the dogs. And then I'm going to take a run. Then I'm going to have half a gummy. I'm going to walk the dogs. And then I'm going to put 10 grand on Dion. Then I'm going to have the other half a gummy. No gummy for me. That's your version. It's just a nice seafood pasta and a little hot tub.

Gumbo tomorrow. Gumbo tomorrow. Alright, everyone. Have a gumbo tomorrow. Gumbo tomorrow. Gumbo. Yeah. So, yeah. All right, everyone. Have a great weekend of football. As another buddy of mine says, it's a ball buffet. So we can ball all weekend.

Merry Christmas for those who celebrate. I'll be getting my Chinese food on Christmas. I cannot wait. And we'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. We're going Tuesday because Christmas is Monday. So have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to you guys on Christmas. I cannot wait. And we'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. We're going Tuesday because Christmas is Monday. So have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to you guys on Tuesday. Take care, everybody.