Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 6

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

Geoff and Matt face a very tough card this week after an impressive 4-1 weekend. They talk through every game and settle on a few teams you might not expect. Will Miami care enough to blow Carolina out? Will they finally win a bet on the Patriots? Will somebody finally slow down the Niners? Plus, Matt and Geoff select their favorite plays from this week's VLTED pool where they are giving away $500 per week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, October 13th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz. We're with the Smart on You live on Twitter, YouTube, and your favorite podcast platform of choice. It is our Friday wagering show. We cover all the NFL games for the rest of the week. We give our predictions on them,

and we're brought to you by the Vaulted app, the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 of cash prizes in my pools with $5,000 allocated to my final pool this season, which will be the day of the big game. That's Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place where you store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees,

and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself. Using the Vaulted Challenge feature, I'll have my own pool each week. It's already up right now. If you answer questions, there's 20 of them to which cash prizes. There's no entry fees required to participate. And this season, they'll be handing out all which cash prizes. There's no entry fees required to participate. And this season, they'll be handing out all those cash prizes, $400 per winner per week.

Again, no entry fees to participate. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools. I'll be using the app as well to store my predictions of the week or five plays that we have at the end of the show. I put my college football ones in there as well. My Pac-12 ones. It's a lot of fun to store and see your predictions. Lower 50%, which is good,

Matt. I like it. Go download the Vaulted app. V-L-T-E-D. Remember to use my code Jeff. That's G-E-O-F-F. So you can see my predictions and play along. Matthew, how you doing, buddy? I'm good. I was just making sure that I could get into the contest for this

week. I'm good, man. Just, I don't know. Hanging in there. We've been cooking lately on this show, so I'm feeling confident. We'll get to that in a second. I want to let everyone know that Washington sucks. Oregon's going to beat them this weekend. I want to make sure it's very clear on record.

The Oregon Ducks are going to beat Washington tomorrow at 3.30 Eastern on ABC, I believe. It's a very important day in my life when we play Washington. I hate Washington with a passion. Just think about the team you hate the most. That's how much I hate Washington. So it's going to be a fun weekend of sports for me. Let's talk very quickly about last night because it does feel like Russell Wilson and the trade

is going to go down as one of the worst trades in NFL history, Matt. Like they have traded for Russell Wilson and they cannot win football games. And I understand that it's not always his fault, but they just aren't winning with Russell Wilson. They paid him like he's an upper echelon quarterback, and those guys are expected to win games when things are not perfect. He is 5-16 now as a bronco starter in 21 games and last

night it wasn't all his fault but he doesn't elevate his team above adversity it's a major problem matt it is uh i i first of all that game closed i think 10 and a half super annoying just want to put that out there the chiefs won by 11 and i had 10 and a half, super annoying. Just want to put that out there. The Chiefs won by 11, and I had 10 and a half for the Broncos. I was like, I was right, you dorks. Well, no, I don't think – I mean, I was by definition wrong, correct. Well, it was the Chiefs' bullshit game they played every other week where Andy Reid pretends that his name is Drew,

and he calls it a Drew, where he's just like, what are you doing, third and short, that Kadarius, Tony, short yardage thing? They're like, what are we doing, man? The first three drives, they were inside the Denver 20 and had three points. It was so strange. I don't recall a game where one team dominated so much

and it never felt like the game was over ever like i mean it felt like they were up they were up by a thousand but they were up by 10 like it just it was the chiefs are so weird um but yeah i agree it was the it was the most lopsided 11 point win in league history is what i said yeah that's what it felt like it was an insurmountable, like 10, nothing lead. Yeah. I, I mean, Sean Watson has to be grateful that Russell Wilson's trade exists because that is the only possible competition. I look, Russ like did not have a great game, but I think it's, I think that the core of that team is just rotten.

Like I just don't think Peyton's really invested in anyone there. I think they just have this feel of a team that's just kind of falling apart like until last night russ hadn't had like a terrible season um and you know it's a short week it's the chiefs like that happens so i don't know i i feel bad i feel badly for him like i i don't think that he's deserves the amount of crap he's gotten over the years from former teammates in the media like i don't know well it's a tough situation like no one no one defends him none of his former teammates defend him right um but the thing about when you when you pay someone that much money is like you have to be the guy who elevates your team above

when bad things are happening. He doesn't do that anymore. That's my problem with him. He doesn't do that. You don't turn to him in a moment of that game and be like, okay, guys, I'm going to win this game for us. That's not what he is. And when you pay him all that much money, you have to be that guy.

So that's my take on the Chiefs offense. Christian Watson's now out for a couple weeks or maybe longer with a dislocated elbow. So number 84, he dropped that pass. He's their best downfield option right now. The Chiefs have some wide-receiving issues. I think Rasheed Rice might be the answer, number four, the rookie at some point. But the Chiefs offense is not great, and they're 5-1.

I mean, like, I think they'll figure their offense out. I think they'll be okay. Matt, speaking of my records, we've been at this for five weeks now. We're 15-8-2. 15-8, well, sorry, 15-8-1 in Broncos. So I'm sorry about that. There it is. But, dude, like, we're doing well.

I like it. We're doing well i like it we're doing well it's we're we're often we usually start pre-middling and then get hot and right now i think we just i i think that there was it last week or two weeks ago where we disagreed on everything and we netted out with a i think that was the 4-0 and broncos week where we we ended up having a really good back and forth and came to the conclusion that our arguments don't actually make convincing arguments because we agree so much. But we're in a good spot. We're in a good spot. And I'm excited to talk about this week of crappy games

because we're really going to have to think. It is. It is. It's not great. But let's start with another game in London, another game Sunday morning. Let's start with that one. Yeah, let's talk about this stupid London game.

I'm West Coast London games, Jeff. Absolutely. Like you set your fantasy lineup and you wake up and you're like, I hope the day is not over. You know that somebody wasn't injured and missed no one needs my rant ravens are laying four to the titans in london uh i can strong feeling on this if this was at this game was at in tennessee we would take tennessee right rabel home dog as much as I think

Baltimore will bounce back the Ravens won lost that game because their wide receivers can catch the ball right so they'll bounce back they'll play better this week but without Tennessee being at home I feel like you can't do the right you can't take the Vrabel underdog thing right because this is not the same situation

so I will skip this game I'll watch this game but just skip yeah i'm with you i think we're having some internet issues with matt right here we're making the for a second. I can filibuster until he comes back on. But I think we're not taking a ball to him. Matt, you there? You there, buddy?

All right, Matt's reconnecting. So I'm going to try to filibuster as long as I can here with this. Because we've got to get through some of these picks. And this is not really the show where we have a lot of topics. But as I mentioned, Tennessee, four and a half. You know what I'll do right now? We'll do some college football very quickly before Matt gets back. So we're a little miscommunication right now.

We'll get Matt reconnected here. He's working from home, doing a lot of work. Let's talk college football very quickly. There's a lot of big games this weekend in the Pac-12 Conference. As you guys know, one thing I do really well is wager on the Pac-12 Conference. I have some other wagers I like, so we'll throw those in here throughout this podcast. But Washington and Oregon play this weekend.

The first time in this rivalry, guys, we hate each other. There's hatred. Washington and Oregon are bigger rivals than Washington and Oregon State, than are Washington and Washington State. It just is, right? Washington and Oregon have the same sort of facilities, the same financial backing, have sort of had the same successes in football.

I know Oregon has not won a championship. Washington has. But the same sort of program, right? Both programs see themselves as sort of mirror images where we don't feel the same way about Oregon State and Washington feels the same way about Washington State. So what's crazy about this is this is the first time this has ever been a game

with two top ten teams. Typically, for the most part, one team has been good and one team has been bad. So now that we have a game where both teams are good, it makes this a lot more fun. And it's going to be maybe the most watched game of the weekend outside of USC and Notre Dame. And my take on this game is very simple. Oregon has a better defense.

They are the more physical team, and they're better in the trenches. That does not mean they're going to win because they have to slow down Washington's offense. But if you're handicapping a game and you're saying, okay, look, who has the advantage in these important things, you'd say Oregon does. Now, there's home field advantage, obviously, for Washington. There's also just the explosive nature of their offense.

But to me, I like Oregon because of the reasons I mentioned. Their ability to hit the quarterback, the ability to slow down Washington. It's not about holding Washington, or vice versa, Washington holding Oregon to no points. It's about instead of being 37, 38, 40, 45 points, it's 31 points. It's 28 points. It's taking nine or 10 possessions and knocking three off with a punt, another one off with a turnover,

another one off with a field goal instead of a touchdown. And Oregon, at least so far this season, has had the better team to do that. Washington's defense, 103rd and third down success rate, 79th in havoc rate, 101 in success rate, and they're 130th in penalties per game. So I think Oregon wins the game. I think they cover the game obviously. Bo Nix

is the most terrifying thing about this because I really feel like if he doesn't have a bad Bo Nix game, they're going to win, but there's a possibility of a bad Bo Nix game, like that he doesn't play as good on the road.

It's loud, it's raucous, but I'm rolling my ducks here, if you haven't noticed. So we have Matt back. Matt at Phillip Western with some college football. So I gave my whole Oregon-Washington take. Let's get to the game number two here, for those who have stuck around uh of the nfl slate yeah so speaking of bad games and washington uh we've got the washington commanders

at the atlanta falcons uh the falcons are laying two and a half uh the undefeated at home desmond ritter we like the falcons no no, not at all. No, nothing. No point in this game whatsoever. No, no chance. The Falcons are 25th in DVOA, Washington's 26th, and if they win this game, Atlanta's 4-2. Like, come on. You know what the Falcons are?

They're the Vikings last season last season they're gonna make the playoffs this year possibly and then or the giants either or and then next year they're gonna be six and eleven and we're gonna be like oh how'd that happen oh they weren't very good the year before right um because the vikings were this way last year right they were like 20 second in dvoa something like that right giants same thing. So a hard pass on this game. Not going to do it. The next one, though, I might. Speaking of the Vikings, they are two-and-a-half point road favorites in Chicago.

Two-and-a-half now? I feel like every – yeah, this has moved. Let's make sure that that's what we're getting. Oh, I see threes. I see threes. Yeah. So this is moved. Let's make sure that that's what we're getting. Oh, I see threes. This is now at three. Yeah. So this is at three. Okay.

Well, I really, really do not want to take the Bears. So if you're going to make that case, can I just do something quickly on Minnesota? So you mentioned the regression and everyone last year being like, well, they want all these one score games. Like I know that they suck now, but like this point drives me insane like regression isn't it goes all one way and then swings back and goes all the way it shouldn't it shouldn't it should go the other way that they're this bad like like yeah they've had some they've had some absolutely horrible luck this

season with some turnovers with like the meltdown at the end of the game like the vikings could easily be what they were last year which is like okay kind of good like three and two or something like that but instead they've been on the complete other end of the spectrum and everyone's like vindicated by this bad take that just says like well that's how things work it's not a seesaw so i feel like they ended up being in this really weird situation two years in a row where now jefferson's out they're talking about like should we just like unload this team and all these assets like what a strange spot to be in and and for chicago like after this big win let's see let's see if they can do it again i actually think this might be the most one of the

most interesting games this week so the vikings saw some regression but also just aren't very good right like the both are true i think right there's not a good football team right now and some regression i'm not going to talk to you the bears plus three but this absolutely the right play here right i mean like like you you the vikings without justin jefferson and aren't very good on the road now i mean you're not thinking the vikings here are you no chance no i guess not no i mean they're they're better the thing about chicago that's so worrisome is like i feel like they got the monkey off their back last week they get extra days to think about it and now they're going to be home and like this feels like the spot where they could lay an egg but there's bad

weather like the vikings can't run the ball at all so i do feel like the spot where they could lay an egg but there's bad weather like the vikings can't run the ball at all so i do feel like the bears are advantaged by this fields you know the fields is actually running now which it seems like he is so i just i just can't back the bears ever so i i will say pass for me but i don't know it's it's to be an interesting game. One of these teams is going to be toast afterwards. There will be some Justin Fields questions in the vaulted pool this week, by the way, which we'll cover that later in the show. I do like one of them. All right, let's get to the next game here. Okay, next game is Seattle at Cincy.

Seattle off a bye. The Bengals off of a convincing win. The Bengals are two and a half point favorites at home. Let's see if that's changed since we started recording. You can get a three if you want it. I like Seattle plus three here. Don't you? Oh, no.

You like the Bengals? I love the Bengals here. Yeah. Interesting. Make your Seattle case. They're good. I think they're a good football team. They're off a bye. They're eighth in DVOA. They're good. I think they're a good football team. They're off a bye. They're eighth in DVOA. They're a balanced team.

It's not like one side is. They're 14th on defense and sixth on offense. I think they're really good. The Bengals' defense has not been that good this season. I think people look at the Bengals and say, oh, their offense is a problem. Their offense is a problem. Their defense is 23rd in efficiency right now.

I think Seattle, three points with Pete Carroll's team off a bye, with the way they can move the ball and the way they play defense, I'll take it all day, man. I'm not buying this Bengals back thing yet. Well, I agree that the Bengals' defense has been bad, but I almost feel like you could make the argument that you've made with the Chiefs offense about the Bengals' defense. It's like this, like, Anna Rumo or whatever, however you say his name, every year they show up. Like, they

figure it out. The Bengals always do this. They start slow. They come into form. Like, Hendrickson's been great. Like, their pass rush has been good. It's just like they've had some problems in the secondary. And like, they've just like seemed a little bit flat. Pete Carroll off a bye is nothing special. I think he's 500 against spread on all these years. Geno Smith, I believe, is winless after a bye. The thing with the Bengals is I feel like this is the last week you'll get them sort of discounted.

Like, this is... Probably. If you look at... Like, yes, it was Arizona, but Arizona, like just be Dallas. Like they're not, they weren't rolling over. And I think, you know, we'll get to them, but it seems like the James Conner injury just has everybody off of them. Burrow, you know, he's done this before. He's 17 and four outside of the AFC North straight up.

Like he's just like, he wins these games. Like if every single thing comes back to where we think, where we thought things were, then this is, this line would be like four and a half, five and a half in Seattle. Like I think Seattle is one of these teams that like, they've gotten a lot of credit for starting a little bit better than,

than people, I guess maybe thought, like I think people were sort of down on them, but a reminder of who they've beaten. They beat the Panthers. They got smoked by the Rams. beaten they beat the panthers they got smoked by the rams they did beat the lions in ot but that was and that's the lions only loss and then they beat the giants like they they like who have they beaten and i know that since he

hasn't beaten anyone either but like remember last year since he lost to cooper rush in like week two like they just it took them a little while and then they just went scorching hot so i'm fine with them as short favorites against the seattle team that like their defense is getting a lot of hype this weatherspoon kid is good but like is he gonna shut down jamar chase like is that happening i i just i feel like you're getting a good price on sincey here i mean i disagree with you but if you love it i'll put it in there i mean we could talk about it later i'll put the maybe well this is good this is this is the sign like conflict is good for us like but we agree too much we stay yeah i i just i disagree on the bangles right now um all right so we should throw it out let's see that's fine um yeah i'll throw it out okay next up next up the most confusing game of the week uh the 49ers

are road favorites in cleveland this line has moved so much i just want to get the latest i see nine or even ten now and all the bets and all the money are still on the niners like i think so watson's obviously out it looks like it's gonna be pj walker who's better than the poor rookie who got annihilated last week i mean what do you do here i think you take the browns plus 10 um it's a lot of points uh the weather is going to be funky this weekend in cleveland right i think i'm thinking i'm right on that it's a bad weather game um the number has moved a full seven points off the open, which is crazy. The Browns' defense is really good. The Niners are on this high right now, right?

Nothing can go wrong for them. They're on a high. They're playing good football. Go to the Midwest. Rainy game. Bad weather. You think you've arrived. They have arrived.

And here's the Browns. So, P.J. Walker, quarterback. I'll go 10 points. Browns plus 10 with a good defense, an offensive line that's good, and a run game that can run the ball. I'll take the Browns plus 10. Such a big ask, Jeff, to back the P.J. Walker-led team against San Francisco. I mean,

this is so in my research this week, it does seem like week six is one of those weeks where things sort of start to turn. Like we've gotten through the beginning of the season and then these bad teams, like we'll get to the Panthers and like the giants and stuff later. Like they start to just sort of like, everyone's dead.

They've all gotten burned betting on them in the first couple of weeks. And they start to just sort of like, everyone's dead. They've all gotten burned betting on them in the first couple weeks. And they start to just sort of keep games a little bit closer than people think. Denver was the exception last night. But I just think like,

if you're betting this, you kind of have to throw everything out. The 49ers could win this game by 40 and it wouldn't surprise anyone. But it's just situational the browns they've allowed six red zone attempts this entire season which i believe it just means like six drives that could mean plays that's the actual stat uh that's extraordinary opponents are

converting third downs at 22 percent uh 17 percent of drives in an offensive score like their defense is unbelievable so they should be up for this um Stefanski's better as a dog he's better outside of the AFC North so like the smart play is the plus 10 but the question is do we like that more than every other game to belong in our five well so far we have zero games so that I mean yeah so far we do have zero so this this advances I am curious. So if you're watching on YouTube and Twitter, our line on this is seven

because that is where it netted out the super contest line. Would you take the Niners laying seven? No. Do you feel like you would take the Browns at seven? Yeah. I would not take the Niners in this game. Yeah. All right.

So then we should definitely take the Niners if we're getting essentially three extra points out of it. The Browns, you mean? Yeah, yeah, excuse me, the Browns. Yeah, I mean, I'll put in the maybes. We'll see where this nets out. I mean, the Niners aren't even – I mean, they're a decent tease, I guess, now, but the tease is the three now.

It's like – or six point. I mean, the six point and you're going to four. It's not great. Yeah. All right, let's get to let's get the next game saints texans uh saints laying one in houston uh this is another like it's like you have a strong opinion on one side or the other i'm curious where you land here i'm on the texans where where are you out here okay texans too okay i think we have one then i think i am too yeah okay i'm a little scared but make the case well the case is that the saints are coming off this blow it went to new england they're going back on the road um their offense previously had

not been good they faced maybe like a zombie like you know like like a zombie Patriots team that's not very good right now. Houston is very feisty. CJ Shad is playing good football. They've been in, I think, every game but one so far this year. Like they've just kind of hung around. They've done other things. And I'm just not backing Derek Carr in back-to-back road games like this. So I guess the Houston Texans have not hung around. Derek Carr in back-to-back road games like this. Yeah.

So I guess the Houston Texans have not hung around. Well, they kicked the shit out of Jacksonville, they kicked the shit out of the Steelers, close to loss to the Falcons, lost by 11 to Colts and lost by the Ravens early on. I think the Texans are good play here, man. Yeah, so basically, I mean, I would would too it feels a little bit like one of those games that's it it feels a little fishy to me um because the texans oh we can actually get one and

a half now this line moved so this is getting 60 of the bets and 10 of the money the texans so this is a very big start play and it's moved it's caused the line to move despite it getting most of the bets um so i think the the case that this the sharps are making is like cj stroud it like it could be time for the disaster game like he's everyone's still sort of holding their stock on cj stroud and now you know dennis allen not a great coach sort of holding their stock on cj stroud and now you know dennis allen not a great coach at all uh but has good defenses like is very good at like confusing uh you know rookie quarterbacks you would think with with the amount of sort of just success he's had on the defensive side so this could be the meltdown game um but this is also like like you said uh the saints is a favorite

but this is also like, like you said, the saints is a favorite back on the road. Derek Carr is one of the worst quarterbacks as a favorite Dennis Allen, like all he's 18 and 40 straight up in his career. Like this is not a coach that's had a ton of success. The saints are just one three and one this year with Derek Carr against the spread. So I do feel like we're getting rope adoped here, but it's like the texans are feisty like they can score they can move the ball and their defense shows up um i don't know i

feel like and i think they're going into the buy next week if i'm not mistaken so maybe this is like a run through the tape kind of game um and we could fade the saints off of a blowout like it makes sense but i'm a little nervous. I'm a little nervous for the reasons you said, but sometimes you have to go against the Sharps sometimes and just kind of go with your gut on this one. And my gut tells me Houston just wins this game outright. Yeah, they've had some interesting – it's like they put up 30 on the Steelers.

I know. And then they had that weird game against Atlanta. All right, let's put that one through. We'll see how we feel about that when we look at it. This one I'm so curious your take on. The Colts are going to Jacksonville. I feel like these teams play every week. The Jags are laying four to what we think is Gardner Minshew.

Do you have a feel here? It's not Gardner. It's not Anthony Richardsard i'll tell you that um right dude all the money is on the road colts here like yeah i like jack i know i do too i i i feel like this is we're overthinking this the colts went on the road and beat the ravens in a weird game of gardenner Minshew. That game is clouding our judgment, in my opinion, on this game. Like Jacksonville, we talked about Jacksonville here, just sort of need to get a little bit better on offense,

and they're going to start playing a little bit better. They've played a little bit better the last couple of weeks. They just beat Buffalo, who last week, after a dolphin, that was the best team in the NFL. They beat this team by 10 already in indianapolis with anthony richardson gardner minchu's not historically good as an underdog um i like jacksonville man i i whatever i i'm in on jacksonville in this game yeah and like the i think one of the reasons people like this for the colts is the they're coming back the jack's coming back from the london trip

um but they have more experience with this than other teams, to be fair. And this is also like – That was the reason why they did not pick the Falcons last week. Did they cover in the end in that game? Yeah, they did, depending on your number. They ended up winning and covering. And that's Arthur Smith. So, look, the Jags also own this series.

Like when the Colts were good, this was one of those where we were like, huh? Like what's going on? The last, I just had it, the last 17 matchups, the Colts, the Jags have covered 14 of them and pushed one. So I have a feeling like, also, I mean, you mentioned, you mentioned the Jags, like, and just how they sort of turned the corner. Like their offense is good. And I just feel like they just needed to sort of break through and granted

like buffalo lost some guys and they were doing the travel to london last week so that wind may look a little bit inflated but like they still beat the bills like the colts defense i think i think the colts have like a pretty fun offense like i think shane steichen like that was a nice hire like they've done a pretty good job. But at the end of the day, the Jags are way better. And I don't get the faith. I just don't. Maybe people think that...

It's like, who thinks the Colts are winning this game? Maybe they think that they'll keep it close and Jacksonville will just struggle coming home. But I'm fine with laying the four here. It doesn't feel scary to me. It doesn't either. I'm fine with laying the four here it doesn't it doesn't feel scary to me um it doesn't either i'm fine with jackson minus four here cool all right i have pretty strong opinions about the next two uh the first is carolina going to miami uh miami is laying 13 and a half um although there are 14s out there also uh the Dolphins are getting 90% of the bets, Jeff.

You're on the Panthers? So here's the reason. This is this like week six fulcrum. The longer you go into the season with these winless teams, the more they tend to end up covering. They end up doing better on the road so teams who are winless in their sixth game or later 40 and 27 against the spread on the road uh 29 and 39 at home um the problem so here's the other thing schedule wise the offense play philly next week Schedule-wise, the offense play Philly next week.

This is going to be a hot, windy day in South Florida. What do they have to show? Like, they have no incentive to put anything on tape. They have no incentive to blow this team out. They don't have a chain who can just score whenever he wants. Like, this feels like this game will be, like, a 17-point game in the fourth quarter, and two will be like a 17 point game in the fourth quarter and two will be out and the bryce young will throw like 27 five yard outs and they'll score and then the the panthers will lose by at 12 like that just kind of feels like that's where this is headed um and i just

feel like you know like they're not i don't think they're they – I don't think they're – they're not tanking. Like, they're trying. No, they're trying to win, yes. Like, they're – and the Bryce Young stuff – and also, sorry, last thing on the fucking Panthers. The teams that – like, Miami – is Miami going to cover two 14-point games in a row? Like, I just feel like last week everybody cashed that ticket, including us. And this week, like, Carolina, they're the stinkiest team in the league no one's going to back them the dolphins just delivered for the public 90 of the bets like

this just feels like you kind of especially 14 i feel like we kind of have to take the panthers here the case for the panthers is that the dolphins defense is 25th in dvoa and the panthers just offense does enough to cover this game late and the Panthers' offense does enough to cover this game late, and the Dolphins, to your point, just sort of pack it in because they're up, and they just are getting ready for Philly next weekend. I don't hate it. We don't have a lot, so I'm okay with putting in the maybes for now

because Carolina's fighting. They're trying to get a win. They're trying to be better. So I liked your theory there about the desperation of them. Okay. And the next game, you like the next game. Where do you lean the next game? Yeah.

So this game, I'm surprised that I got here. The next game is the Bucs hosting the Lions. This is sort of hung around at three all week, plus three for the Bucs hosting the Lions. This is sort of hung around at three all week, plus three for the Bucs. I like Detroit. I think Detroit is a much better team. And I think that this is a good example of Vegas trying to trap you with this Tampa team

that has not actually beaten anyone. I think they're this pleasant surprise that the rest of the public, particularly, is just sort of like, oh i think they're this pleasant surprise that the rest of the the rest of the public particularly is just sort of like oh yeah like they're good like they're three one they beat they they beat the the bears in the second week when the bears were a total disaster they beat the vikings in a game they probably shouldn't have won in week one and then they blew out the saints and we already talked about the saints and how we're not really big believers in them so i just i just don't think they're very good i don't think that that being off of a buy matters todd bowles i believe if i can find this stat quickly uh

he is one of he let's see i have his stat off a buy uh baker stinks off a buy it's just generally not a good a good set of trends uh for the bucks and when you look at these mike evans we hasn't hasn't practiced during the week like he's if he's not even 100 this offense is nothing uh the lions are freaking good man like they're i think they're a legitimate team that we're again sort of still getting at a discount um so i i like detroit yeah i think my only questions are just like playing outside 80 degrees. It's going to be night-ish games. It won't be as hot as playing a 1 p.m. kickoff.

The thing about the Lions I don't worry about is down spots. Like I don't worry about them not being ready to play in any game because of Dan Campbell and the way they play. So I think the concern is the Lions just sort of don't show up, right? It's like on the road, it's hot. You just blew out the Panthers. You just bought the Packers. You know, how much incentive is there to play as hard as possible this weekend?

It's a general, you know, that's what happens in the NFL sometimes. But I think Dan Campbell has a team ready to play. Look, if anybody can make your Mayfield buddy, I'm all for it. Anytime we can do it, sign me up. It's fine. I'm good with playing this. Yeah, and I think their play style is compatible for these hot, drag-it-out games.

Just give the Rock to Montgomery 50 times. That's what they're probably going to do. And I think these two teams, everyone had the Bucs being one of the worst teams in the league. They've overperformed. Let's see if they can keep doing it. Let's see if they can beat Detroit. That's essentially what we're betting on, and I'm not there.

I think Detroit's way better. Agreed. Okay, let's do the next step. Oh, God. Jeff, I'm terrified right now. We're going to talk about it. We're going to talk about the New England Patriots. Maybe the worst team in the history of sports, any sport. They are going to the Las Vegas Raiders

where the Raiders are laying three. And I have a feeling you're going to try to talk me into the Patriots. So we're 15-8-1 in Broncos. We're 0-3 betting on the Patriots. The Raiders suck. 15-5, Patriots 1 in Broncos. The Raiders are terrible, dude. And they're laying three at home?

I don't know. You're going to have to do a better job than tell me the Raiders are terrible And they're laying three at home? I don't know. Ah, jeez. You're going to have to do a better job than tell me the Raiders are terrible to make me bet on the Patriots. That's why I don't think I can do it. I just can't stomach the Patriots again. I haven't seen them with USC football where I'm 0 for 3 on USC this year. I just stopped wager on them. Just like cold turkey.

We have the wrong way on the Patriots in all these weeks. And the Patriots scarred me last weekend. They did not show up. They lost 38 to three and came back and got their asses kicked out. They did not show up again for back-to-back weeks. Why are they showing up this weekend in Vegas? I don't know. Not a place where people tend to be their most focused.

And everyone's on the Patriots too, which I don't like. I don't either. Belichick, since 2018, this stat is crazy. 4-10 versus former assistants. Wow. Crazy. So when you think about who those are, that's O'Brien, that's McDaniels, that's Patricia.

Like these are not, you know, this isn't Vince Lombardi out there. This is like one of those trend games where it's like teams off of a night game, playing a team who lost by 20 only cover 38 of the time that's also true by the way with san francisco so another good case for for why to take cleveland so like but you know we're we're betting on mac jones that's what would be happening here this could be the remandre game where he comes back to life but i can't i just i can't do it man i can't and it's like this could be the the meltdown week like the raiders the raiders can score like they have a passing game they can like it's like adams and myers are open a lot like they just don't punch

it in because mcdaniels is a moron but i do feel like you know and remember we actually watched this game last year together at barney's beanery on the promenade we did yeah we did yeah mac jones through the turf like there's some weird vibes about this game so i would much rather just not care about it but because i think we do have enough now where we can we can maybe avoid putting ourselves through another mac jones loss I'm I'm with you. Yeah. Let's skip it then. He's going to turn it around at some point, but I just,

I just don't want to be the one holding the bag waiting for it. Okay. Cardinals Rams. This line is Rams by seven. Like what is this line? This opened in the four and a half range. And I swear to God, I think the Connor injury is like getting everyone off of the Cardinals.

I don't want to take them, but this does feel a little bit inflated. Maybe Cup being so good last week has people excited about the Rams, but I don't know. I can't figure out the Rams. I can't either. I don't know. Arizona getting seven. Look, a late backdoor cover.

But the Cardinals at some point, though, and it felt like last week was that week, sort of came back down to earth. Like the Bengals beat them pretty well. The Niners beat them pretty well last. It was 35-16 and 34-20. They're kind of coming back down to earth a little bit. And the Rams have played better than I thought they would.

Their offense has been better, especially with Cup. Arizona can't rush the passer. So are you affecting Matt Stafford in this game? Without a lack of pass rush. To me, it's just a stay away. I don't have a great feel for it. I just wouldn't put money on it. Yeah.

I'm with you. I just don't. I don't trust the Rams to run away with games yet. All right. Next one is another one that we're going to have to really look in the mirror on. Eagles-Jets. No, we're not doing it. It's in Jersey. Eagles laying seven.

Can't take Zach Wilson, right? No. Not doing it. No chance. Okay. I'm not sitting there on Sunday and hoping for the Jets to cover this spread. I just – I'm not sitting there when the Eagles are just with –

they're up 10 with seven minutes left, and they just grind out a five-minute drive, kick a field goal, go up 13. I have to watch Zach Wilson try to engineer a late touchdown drive to cover this game. I'm just not going to do it. I'm watching that game yeah that's fair uh i'm not going to try to convince you because the play would be the jets this has moved to six and a half or even six for the philly now because the jets have gotten so much love at seven yeah um which should tell you if you're

like in the super contest pool like maybe just plus seven is the play but forget it uh speaking of lines that have moved this one was 14 the the bills with a monster spread against the giants uh jeff i'm actually looking now i see a 15 and a half i see a 14 and a half from but mgm still um i see a sponsor 15 and a half buddy i see a 14 if you're into the bills but i see a 15 and a half, buddy. I see a 14 if you're into the Bills, but I see a 15 and a half if you like the Giants. No, I do not like the Giants. Well, obviously, no one likes the Giants. The Giants are without Daniel Jones, without their left tackle.

Saquon might play, they said. So Tyron Taylor is in. The Bills are without some of the guys on their defense, obviously, with Milano being out and White being out. I played the Bills over their team total. It was 28.5 yesterday on the Bear podcast. They averaged 31 points after a loss the last three years. They play significantly better at home than they do on the road,

especially in these games. They scored a ton of points. I mean, could you see this being like 38-17? They just kicked the Giants' ass. The Giants have yet to score a touchdown in the first half on offense this season. Yeah. I don't think we can take the Panthers and the Giants, but this 15.5 is really staring at me.

I mean, the main thing is I don't know if Daniel Jones being out actually matters. Tyra Taylor might keep this game closer just by virtue of QB. He definitely runs the ball better. And we saw at the end of that game, we had the Dolphins, if you remember. Tyrod Taylor was like making enough plays to make it sort of like sticky for us. Yeah. Yeah, it was a little tense. And Barkley being back, Barkley is the entire offense.

Like without Barkley, they have no options. With Barkley, at least you have to pay attention to him yeah so I do think being out yeah with all of these there's like three or so of these right I think the Bills down three starters all of whom were like having a really good season on defense they're coming back from London this is the game that Josh Allen like can win by 40 so you know if we had to pick one of these monster spreads i would still make the argument for carolina i think but the giants aren't just going to lay down like and i think after last week it's again everyone bet on miami and cashed it and they're like great i could do it again with buffalo who beat miami and is off of a loss

and it's a night game like i just i i feel I feel like Dable's going to get his guys up for this. Like, if he's a good coach at all, this has to be a game where they show up. And Buffalo does not have an amazing pass rush. They're down a bunch of guys on defense. Like, I don't see this as a 16-point win. Yeah. I think if we took that line, I would feel fine getting 15.5. I'd rather take the Panthers plus

the points than I would the Giants. That's fine. That's fine. I think I'm fine with that. Great Monday night game. I can't decide. Maybe you have an opinion here. It's the Cowboys

coming to LA to lay 2. It's the Cowboys coming to LA to lay two and a half to the Chargers. Chargers off a bye. Cowboys off of a humiliating primetime loss. Who's the favorite? Across the country.

The Cowboys. Cowboys are laying two or two and a half. How much of a duckucks fan are you? It's nothing to do with Justin Herbert. It's betting on Brandon Staley. Because, like, if we lost this wager because Brandon said he did something dumb at the end of the game, which he's bound to do in this game, I would never live that down.

If you play Dallas here, you're out of your freaking mind. If you put money on Dallas, you're nuts. The Chargers are the only play here. The only play. I don't hate it, but I'm putting my money on Brandon Staley, which is just terrifying. It's absolutely terrifying. The Chargers are better in certain parts of the field,

like the red zone. And lo and behold, the Cowboys are not good in the red zone because Kellen Moore is not there anymore. The Cowboys' offense looks exactly like Mike McCarthy's offense with the Packers when he got fired for being stale, no motion. What do you expect? Oh, because he lied about having a PFF subscription? He got this job.

The answer for me is nothing on this game, but I would not take the Cowboys. I'd take the Chargers or bust. I also have a PFF subscription. I could not be a head coach why uh yeah i well you may be good uh the yeah i i don't have a ton to add here all of the splits favor dallas like herbert's not great at home is that he's not great as a dax incredible as a favorite he's very good as a road favorite dallas is great at night the sharps are on dallas i don't this just i'm i'm good let me i'll pass like this is gonna be a lot of points i like i

like the kellen moore factor like that feels like they could sneaky that's gonna be like the big storyline during the broadcast i have a feeling um so i i don't know i just this feels a little bit sticky to me the reason why herbert doesn't play well at home is because he never actually has a home game they're always road games right look at this game they're gonna have a ton a ton of cowboys fans at this game yes it will be all cowboys fans uh group of people all right not the most i only have six maybes and one of them i think you said no to already. You ready? I have Chicago plus three, Cleveland plus 10, Houston plus a point and a half, Jacksonville minus four, Carolina plus 14, Detroit minus three.

I only have six. And you said you didn't like the Bears. And you want to take out. You're definitely not on the Giants. No, I'm on the Giants, no. Okay, Giants are out. Yeah, the Bears are dicey to me. Well, okay on the Giants, no. Okay, Giants are out. Yeah, the Bears are dicey to me, but. Well, okay, so here's the deal.

I think we feel really good about Houston, right? Yes? I mean, I don't, but I feel like we agree on it. Okay. I'm scared. Jacksonville? Actually, Chicago to me, are we getting three with Chicago? Yes.

I would consider them. Okay. Okay, so we have. with Chicago? Yes. I would consider them. Okay. Okay, so we have – Keep going. Okay. So we have – Okay, Carolina and Detroit are yeses. Jacksonville is a yes, right?

Minus four? Scary, but yeah, let's do it. Then we have three others. We have two or three. Chicago plus three. Cleveland plus ten. Houston plus a point and a half. I think we have to do the Cleveland one.

Yep. It's Houston or Chicago. Alright, Houston. Chicago, so Cleveland plus ten. Chicago's scary. Cleveland plus ten, Houston plus a point and a half, Jacksonville minus four, Carolina

plus fourteen, Detroit minus three. Whew, I'm bad. Well, 15-8-1 in Broncos. So it gives us a little bit of leeway here. I want to correct that. 15-5, Patriots won in Broncos. That's definitely fair. 0-3 in the Patriots.

So, all right, let's take a short break we'll come back we'll talk about the vaulted pool questions you can join us on vaulted it's a lot of fun uh we have a good time there uh we'll talk about that just a second be right back are you smarter than your friends prove it with vaulted by predicting challenging and being them with your sports knowledge vaulted spelled vlted is a place where you can store your sports knowledge. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes, and there are no entry fees required

to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Volta to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. Join Volta and you can like, dislike,

comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me go download vaulted spelled v-l-t-e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along guys i want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game i have been playing this season price picks is a skill-based real money daily fantasy sports game. How does it work? You pick two to six players and if they will go more or less than the PrizePix projection, you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry. So go to

PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. It's so easy to use. I can make my picks in less than 60 seconds. The depositing was simple and straightforward. They even just added Apple Pay, so I was able to get up in minutes and start playing. At PrizePix, you're competing against other people. It's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better. Remember, go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. All right, we're back.

Let's talk about Vaulted, V-L-T-E-D. Go join the app, promo code. It's not even a promo code, just Jeff, G-E-O-F-F, to join my pool. And it's a ton of fun. It's free to enter. We give away $500 a week, so it's $14,000 for the season. Again, it's 20 questions agree or don't agree you put a scale of one to ten on your prediction and the winner of the week gets

four dollars second place gets 75 uh third place gets 25 and again if you beat me you finish ahead of me you qualify for the big game pool there'll be five thousand dollars for the sunday of the big game pool. That'll be $5,000 for the Sunday of the big game. So let's go through some of these, Matt, I like. We talked about the Bears game to end the last segment. Justin Fields will have more than 49.5 rushing yards against the Vikings. I have an agree here. I think it goes over this.

I think that's what the Bears offense has to be. And I think that Fields is going to start picking up the rushing now, basically not the back half of the season, but the rest of the season. What do you think about that one? Yeah, it seems right. Especially this has bad weather. This is going to be an ugly, ugly game, reminiscent perhaps of that 49ers-Bears game last year.

So I think Fields rushing props over makes a lot of sense. He had 57 last game. He's had 47 against Kansas City and 59 against the Packers. Another one I like here, B. John Robinson will have more than a half a total touchdown against the Commanders. I just think I agree, right? Like just agree with any of those.

Yeah. Yeah. He's due, it feels like. Yeah. Texans will beat the Saints. I agree there. I do think the Chargers beat the Cowboys. I think the Chargers do beat the Cowboys, right?

Like, if you were to – in the pool, I'm going to put agree on that one. Yeah, I think I agree also. Yeah. That's where we were probably headed if we had to. Yeah. There's a couple other ones here. Matt Stafford will throw for more than 270.5 yards. Matt Stafford, I feel like per game,

it's so interesting to see how he plays each and every week. There's been a lot of inconsistencies, but he's thrown for 334, 307, 269, 319, and 222. I would go more than. I'd go over because I think we've seen this year that he's been a big part of this offense cardinals defense is not great cooper cup is back it's not playing the eagles i'll take it over here i like it there's that that's that's a nice yeah let's i like that there's also like there's some fun ones this week like the lines are a

little bit different obviously because of the time they set them and they obviously it's a market they move um if you want to take some of these stinkers like you can do it in this pool like you can take the jets the jets are getting seven and a half against the eagles that's a pretty nice number i feel like that's a low scoring bad weather game um and you can get the giants plus 14 and a half against buffalo and you know that i do like that one i i'm i'm glad we're not involved but i do think that that's that's good value if uh if you're willing to wager 10 of your points on tyron taylor i'm also going to put in the app my prediction that oregon beats washington um let's go it's fun dude dude i've

been putting in like other predictions like i've been putting in a bunch of stuff like college football i'll go and just put all my college football predictions and you can go to a custom you could make a custom one so if the line has changed from the one you got like tonight it's friday night which records on friday i like colorado to cover the 11 and a half so that's what i have for the number i have for colorado so i'll just go in here on the on the app and put that in there so you can track track my predictions. I mean, it's all on there. So it's 12 and a half here. I'll just make a custom one and do Colorado here. They're going to beat Stanford's butt tonight.

So, all right, everyone. Enjoy the show as usual. We're on a hot streak. We're going to hopefully keep it going. Hopefully keep it going here with some more wins this weekend. Remember, go Ducks. No one likes the Huskies around here. We'll talk to you guys on Monday for a recap show. I will preview Monday Night Football then.

Have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to you guys Monday.