Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 7

Episode Date: October 20, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back at it again after another impressive 4-1 week. This week they run through the slate quickly finding their five favorite games without much disagreement. Will they side with the public against Geoff's Chiefs? Will they bet on the game of the week featuring Philly and Miami? Find out - plus big new from Matt!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

All right, we're here. It's Friday, October 20th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. It's Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. We're live on Twitter and on YouTube. And hopefully you're listening to us on your favorite podcast platform of choice. If you are, before you do anything else, give us a rating. Give us a review.

We'd love to get those. All right, well, I don't know what's happening here. We have a little audio in my ear. I don't know what's happening here. We have a little audio in my ear. I don't know if we're – that might actually be myself hearing myself on Twitter, by the way, to make sure this is recording right. We love doing this podcast. That was me listening to myself on Twitter to make sure it was working right.

We're brought to you by the Vaulted app on Friday, the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 in cash prizes in my pools with $5,000 allocated to my final big pool of the season, the day of the big game that's vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself, which you would have done last week because I was very bad last week, Matt.

I was in negatives. I'm not proud of myself. I have to make it up this week. As you guys know, I have my own pool vaulted. Each week, you can answer questions to win cash prizes. We'll go over those questions at the end of the episode, so stay tuned for that. There are no entry fees required to participate.

We're giving cash prizes for wins, first place, second place, third place in each week. If you qualify for the big game pool, you have to beat me in any of the regular season pools, which again, is sometimes easy because I'm bad some weeks. We'll store my five predictions from this episode in there as well. So go download Vaulted. That's V-L-T-E-D.

Remember to use the code Jeff. That's G-E-O-F-F. You can see my predictions and play along. As we do on Fridays, Matt, we go over the NFL slate. We pick our five games of the week and we are currently 19, nine, one in Broncos. So we're 19, nine and two. It's the best start we ever had with 20 points so far in the contest. I am very happy with our process, Matt,

and I'm very happy that we are winning. It's different than we normally have so either ride us fade us tail us but fantastic start buddy fantastic start and hey i think we got us we i think we can take the disclaimers out like we have a big enough sample size now this is through almost half the season so we don't have to apologize for years past we're looking through the windshield not the rear view view, baby. We're flying. 19-9-1 in Broncos. And really, 19-6, Mac Jones won in Broncos.

That's really the record. Because the Patriots, I'm still not over it. And you're not talking me into them this week. Let me just go ahead and put that out there. No, no, no, no, no. There is one big favorite I want to take, which I'm not sure you're going to like. But I have a good case for it. At least they're at home, so that's maybe an idea there for you.

And let's get into it. We're going to go over our games. There's not a lot this week because we have buys. The game last night is concluded. Jacksonville beats the Saints. The Saints, dude, they are so gross on offense, Matt. They're a disaster. You put all the money for Derek Carr,

and he's the most Derek Carr to ever be Derek Carr. It's just so boring, so bland. The question out of this game for me, by the way, is like Jacksonville, there's just something not right about them offensively. And I don't know quite what it is, but that game should have been like 45-20 or 38 20 and it was like it was tied at 24 at one point and then jacksonville boom scored and and never looked back so my takeaway is something is off on their offense i don't know what it is but when they get it right they're five and two

we took them alternate line over ten and a half right and that's what we did in our in our preseason well we are on track for that, at least, which is good. So whether we write about Jacksonville. We had, yeah, Jacksonville over 10 and a half, Lawrence over 4,000 yards, which probably is not going to happen. ETN under rushing, probably not going to happen. Yeah. We hit other ones.

So let's start with uh the first game of the week buddy uh let's uh let's hit it yeah let's do it congrats to uh to the jags uh all right first one that is on my list here what an ugly slate this week let's start with uh nfc south clash between desmond Ritter and Baker Mayfield. The Bucs are home for the Falcons, and their latest line is two and a half for Tampa. This feels like a game we're either going to have a strong opinion on or not want to talk about for even one second. The latter would be the way to go.

Like, I don't know. I do another podcast with Chris Felica, and I love Chris. It's a lot of fun to do. He has the Falcons this week. I was like, I mean, it's not the worst play, but I don't know, Matt. You know how I feel about betting on Atlanta. It's my least favorite thing to do besides the Patriots this season, but in general, like I am battling Atlanta.

They're one and five this year covering the spread. Like they're a team that's not trustworthy because Desmond Ritter can have a game where he throws no interceptions or last week he throws three interceptions, right? I think the play would be Atlanta here, but I can't put it as one of my five, I don't think, unless you feel great about it. No, and if it's any comfort, our guy Chris Rabon is on the Bucs. Both teams have good run defenses uh neither team is doing very well running the ball which is surprising for atlanta at least um and this is desmond ritter outside against a very good good front seven like pass

i would definitely i think i would be on tampa here off of a loss where they kind of got blown out and everyone's like oh we were wrong about them um atlanta by the way i you know i watched more of them wearing my fun bunch shirt today um i watched a decent amount of them last week playing my my commanders their offense like ritter gave that they should have won that game by by like a full touchdown washington was just dying to give it away and it was just turnovers dumb play calls like outsized risk taking that seemed to make no sense with the personnel they have that sums up with that team man like you could slide a new quarterback in there and things would be different but it's almost like arthur sm Smith is like too cocky in his own system that

he's like, no, no, it'll work. Like just, just trust me. We don't need to throw to the five guys we drafted in the top 10. It's just, something's off with that team. So long way of saying I'd be on the bucks, but I can't imagine that that would be one of our picks this week. People keep saying this, the Fox would trade for kurt cousins what's that gonna do it's not gonna help do anything um edging last night by the saints the saints were the team is the favorite to host a home playoff game in wildcard weekend at nfc south absolutely wild

like the division's right there right there for the taking i think tampa's probably who i'd pick in this group honestly i mean atlanta if atlanta puts heineken in after during or after this week i think they'll at least like have a little bit more chaos on offense but and like i don't think his floor is as low as ritter's like ritter can just kill them but i don't know like tampa's still got a really good defense like mike evans is still know, he's still really good. Like, I feel like they could, I don't know. If you're getting any plus number,

it's worth taking somebody other than the Saints. All right, enough of that stupid game. Are we passing that? Yes. All right. All right. Next is Bills-Pats. Yeah, we'll see.

Tough week. Bills-Pats. Bills are laying eight and Yeah, we'll see. Tough week. Bills-Pats. Bills are laying 8.5 in Foxborough. I think this is the biggest spread in Foxborough for a road favorite I think since Brady's first or second start.

Over 20 years. I'm not taking the New England Patriots. I know it's the right play. I can't do it. You don't like Buffalo, do you? No, no chance. No, we're not doing that. No.

That's it. End of story. I mean, we can waste your time if you want on this game, but I'd rather not. I mean, the thing about the Patriots' storyline to me is, I think Belichick's probably out after the season. And what do they do next? Who do they hire?

Do they get Caleb Williams? Do they get Drake May? The whole thing changes. The whole thing changes after this year. Like, this is it. Like, the shine is off. They're not good. They have nothing going for them.

Like, Belichick, I don't think, will be around next season. There's no reason to bring him back next season, right? Like it's done. You had your dynasty, the best coach of all time. You won six Super Bowls. This is it. It never ends well. It rarely ends well, right?

It's ending poorly in New England. They are 28th in DVOA right now. That's not a good football team. Couldn't even cover last weekend on the road because they get that safety late. All right, let's get to the next game. this is not a good football team uh couldn't even cover last weekend on the road against uh because they give that safety late um all right let's get to the next game really quick our friend nick wright said if the patriots released all their offensive starters would any of their offensive starters start anywhere else in the whole league

and i thought that was a pretty funny question like some of their offensive line would yeah yeah yeah but like not anybody else that's pretty insane no i don't think you can say And I thought that was a pretty funny question. Some of their offense alignment would. Yeah, Trent Brown would. Yeah. Yeah. But, like, not anybody else. That's pretty insane. No. I don't think you can say that for any other team, including even the Cardinals.

All right. Next game. Excuse me. Next game, Browns at the Colts. The Browns were laying three last time. Yeah, still three. They're also still getting the majority of the bets and the money yeah uh feels like a little bit of a little bit of hype for a browns team uh with potential this is still we think gonna be pj walker right is that the latest intel i saw watson throwing today

um in this uh in practice um oh we took the browns last week it was a great win for us um i feel like this week the play is the colts right um yeah the browns again all the hype all the adulation great win against the niners defense the best defense of all time which they're playing great by the way and let's not disparaging the browns but then you have the cold too i i'm not a fan of gardner minchu is like some sort of legit NFL starting quarterback. He's okay in the right circumstances. He'll probably play better at home than he will on the road in Jacksonville. And the Colts have good pieces around him.

More than anything else, it's sort of like a fate of the hot Browns, right? Like the Browns are on the road. They're favorites now. Even if Watson plays, the number's not bad. I mean, obviously we'd get like probably six or seven if he played by the time Sunday came around. I reckon the best of numbers. But three points is three points.

Like, I would take the Colts in this situation, Matt, and live with watching, probably not watching this game, having this game in our life. Yeah. This is weird. This is sort of unrelated but uh the unders have been cashing at a historic rate this season uh this is the total and this is 40 and a half uh 97 percent of the money is on the under so yeah uh that probably means it'll be an over but in in most worlds this is probably a pretty tight game it's's probably a lot of Zach Moss and Jonathan Taylor and a lot of Ford and Hunt

for Cleveland. This will probably be a pretty low scoring game. If Watson plays, he's not going to be fully Watson. He's not been declared ready to go yet. If it's Walker, we love going against Walker as a road favorite. What are we doing here? I think this is a smart play even if it kind of isn't the most fun. Yeah, I'm down with Fajita Browns. They're getting a little too much out of me. Here's the thing, though.

Is this number with Watson playing or with P.J. Walker playing? I don't think it's that huge of a difference right now to you. Like, if Watson's in, what happens? This moves to, like, three and a half, four? Does he get to six or seven with him playing, though, is my question. If it doesn't, then this number is already – this is already baked in that he may or may not play this game. I'm just curious.

What do you think? I don't think so. Do you? Do you think they would be favored by six with Watson? I don't. No, I don't think so do you like do you think this is a they would be favored by six with watson i i don't no i don't think so either if i mean if that line moves then we should consider if you know if it moves three points in in the favor of the team we like we should probably you know go that way and buy into it over the weekend but i'm fine with the colts for now. I am too. All right, let's get the next one.

Yeah, this is a great one. The Lions are going to Baltimore. Baltimore coming back from London. The Ravens have been laying three all week. It's still three. It's pretty even here. So I like Baltimore in this game. The London thing worries me,

but Jacksonville did just cover coming off of London.on right i feel like when you're flying london to baltimore it's different than flying like london back to somewhere in the midwest or the west coast and playing football right like it's a six-hour flight it's not that big of a difference or you know a seven-hour flight um baltimore if they every game they play looks so hard, right, Matt? Like it looks so difficult for them to get to the outcome they want to be at. But if they play their game, they're going to beat the Lions by a touchdown, right? Like the Ravens are very good. So are the Lions, by the way.

But Lions are back on the road. This week we're talking about golf MVP lines. Number one seed. I know you guys think it's interesting or funny or not funny or done the way we wager on some of these games, but how many times this year, Matt, have we made money fading the hot team,

like fading the team. Everyone wants to talk about as being the next great thing. It's it's, it's, it's the way to do this, in my opinion. Again, we're fading the Lions, but the Ravens are very good. They just catch the football, Matt. They're so much better, right, on offense.

So I like Baltimore more here. I'm throwing out the London thing. And Baltimore minus three, I'm in on that. I am too. I was curious how you're going to read this one. So mainly, the London thing is worrisome, and to go a little bit more in depth on that. So usually we've talked about this already this season, but teams coming back from London rarely, if ever, lead going into the fourth quarter. That's obviously a concern with this Lions offense that can explode. this lions offense that can explode. But you're right.

We're catching Detroit at the right time. It's an outdoor game where golf is, is I think about 500 as a starter outside. He's 34, 33 and two inside. He wins two thirds of his games, 18 and six last two seasons inside. The other thing is like Lamar as a three point favorite,

basically between three and three, I think his record is 10 and one against the spread. He's 18 and six against the spread as a favorite of three or less points a favorite three or less points or as an underdog um so he's really good in this spot baltimore is one of those teams that like they kind of are outliers a lot of times like that stupid preseason streak like they just kind of like they they seem to like get up for things that the rest of the league doesn't really get up for um i also i think that you know they could they could probably handle the travel thing pretty well um the pros are on this yeah i i guess i mean the pros are on this uh pretty hard actually they like the ravens a lot but this line doesn't move because the public all the all the tickets are going to be on the Lions uh so I think this is a smart play it might

not be pretty it might be a push um but I think I do like it I think uh I think Baltimore by the way they're the the Lions defense is has been wildly overrated and it's because of their schedule um they haven't played any good quarterbacks other than Mahomes, who didn't have Kelsey, obviously, yet. Just to remind people, started with the Chiefs. They lost to Geno. They beat Ritter. They beat Love.

And it really banged up Packers' team. They beat the Panthers, and then they beat the Bucs. So they're going against Lamar Jackson this week. Let's see if their third DVOA defense can hold up against baltimore yeah i agree all right um here's a game we're not going to bet the raiders are favored against the bears in chicago if you're betting this game you're either in tyson bag bagnett's family or you are in total degen please don't tell me you're either of those we're just gonna let's just save time and go to the next game sorry if you're listening

if you're a Bears or Raiders fan you're not getting that from us yeah we don't I mean we don't know anything about these quarterbacks uh all right commanders at the Giants is the next game uh let's see the latest here I think it's two and a half now for the commanders as road

favorites year i think it's two and a half now for the the commanders as road favorites uh no i'm just not doing it you're not no well i i i guess the question is which side are we taking here which side are we are we uh you're going with it would be the giants if we're taking a side um giants it would have to be andrew thomas is out still their center is out still their passport was uh their best pass rushers out daniel just questionable the neck injury um the commander's defensive line is going to destroy the giantsants' offense in this game. I'm not taking Washington minus three, but can we find someone else to take besides the Giants? That's fine.

I can't do it. I just can't do it. Well, man, I wish I had it in front of me. So I think Daniel Jones versus the Commanders, I think he's lost once in like six or seven tries like his best yeah this is his best uh he's awesome against washington the the case basically so like the giants everyone thinks are dead if tyron's in i actually think that helps them uh even though the jones owns yeah he's five one and one he's five one and one against the commanders yeah it's insane right the tie last

year um just a reminder the giants losses have been to the cowboys the 49ers the seahawks the dolphins and the bills washington their three wins has been against the falcons uh the cardinals and the broncos so three of two of the worst teams in the league uh and by the way they beat the Broncos by two and the Cardinals by four. And they were waxed by the Bills and waxed by the Bears, which is insane. So I don't think they deserve to be road favorites. Yes, the Giants are bad at pretty much everything, but they're coming off being embarrassed.

Maybe not embarrassed, but a big primetime loss. I just don't buy Washington getting points as road favorites, but we don't have to take them. No, please. Let's just go somewhere else. Okay. We don't have a lot of games left here. So Cardinals at Seahawks is the next one.

Seahawks are like seven and a half. This line's moved down. What do you think? I really like Seattle here. I'm going to overrule you on this one because you're going to say no. I already know it. Oh, my God. Can I explain the reason why?

Yeah, go ahead. The Cardinals are not good. We have this perception of the Cardinals because the first three weeks, right? Commanders, they lost by four. They were winning at halftime. Giants up 28-0, lost 31-28. Beat the Cowboys. Since then, they lost by 19, 14, and 17.

They're not good, Matt. They're just not a good football team. It's the straight fate of the Cardinals. But with the Seahawks, by the way, who I know you were on the Bengals. I think I was on the Seahawks in that game, just privately, ourselves, right? The Seahawks should have won that game. Geno did not play well. Guys were open everywhere.

They drove in the red zone a couple of times. Like Seattle right now is 10th in DVOA. They're 9th on offense, 16th on defense. The Cardinals are 25th. They're 31st on defense. And Josh Jobs continues to get worse and worse each week as more teams get film on him. I just think Seattle is kicking the shit out of the Cardinals this weekend.

And I would be hard to convince otherwise, other than I guess just all the money being on – I would imagine all the money – I haven't even looked at it with all the money that's on Seattle. It's actually interesting. The money is on the Seahawks. It's about the same, but a little more of the pros is on the seahawks uh it's about the same but a little more on the pros are on the seahawks i'm not going to talk you out of this i'm surprised i'm surprised i'm fine with it i mean this is the biggest number for gino in his whole career he's never

closed as a favorite of more than seven um he's only covered one game with as a four point or more favorite uh but this is like this is when you sort of like to buy the Seahawks, like the season, like this is when like the, the good coaches like kind of separate themselves right now. Right. This is like, this is where the Pete Carroll's and the Sean McVay's and like, you know, others send, tend to step up here. The Seahawks are coming like the Seahawks. You're right. I was on them last, last week.

No, you were on the Bengals I thought. Yeah're right. I was on them last, last week. Um, no, you were on the bank. Yeah. Sorry. I was on the Bengals last week. Seattle could have won the game. If I was on the Seahawks,

I would have felt like I probably was on the right side, but I mean, I was actually on the right side. Um, so I think the other thing with the Cardinals, um, the Cardinals run defense is like absolutely atrocious. Um, they're, yeah, they're just not good that's okay they're gonna get worked by Kenneth Walker here I do I think this could be the like

exercise the demons game for Seattle the hook sucks but like whatever we'll we can take seven and a half yeah but it also was eight earlier so we'll take the hook I have I have been i do a show on the weekends with uh bill krankenberger who's fantastic and we've been talking about the hook and he's like don't be afraid of it anymore he goes with with two point conversions now with people missing extra points like the hook is not between three and four seven and eight is not as big as a problem as it used to be. I was like, okay, fair. But I like Seattle here. All right, the next game, though, this one's going to be an interesting discussion for us. Go ahead.

Yeah, Pittsburgh is going to the Rams. The Rams, you can get three or three and a half here, I think, depending if we want this or what side we're on. I've really had a hard time with this one. Yeah. So this is why I think we pass on this one. Yeah. I know we are a podcast of Tomlin underdog.

We're taking Tomlin if he's underdog. I don't think in this game. Their tight end is now out for this game. That was announced earlier today he's out um and so that's one less option of an offense that's not very good but remember we came on monday and said that we are like sort of all in on the rams now not all in but they're a playoff team this is a game that a playoff team should win right if you're the rams you're you're again we talked about it's like the rams are much better than we give them credit for

their defense right now is not as good as their offense offense is playing well but pittsburgh i just have no trust in them to go on the road and what's probably gonna be a lot of pittsburgh fans in los angeles and sort of just i think sometimes you have to imagine when you take a team that's plus three that what leaves my brain works this way that they're gonna win this game right three points is good but like i gotta see a picture for them to win the game i can't bet on can he pick it back door covering this game can't do it so i don't picture the steelers win this game going back to the ravens game they last played, they should have lost that game.

Now, we were lucky. We'll take the cover and the win. But how many drops did the Ravens have? How many weird plays did the Ravens have? The Rams don't do those things. And so I don't feel comfortable in this game taking the Steelers to the spot. I don't either. Just for the record, Tomlin, the Steelers off the spot I don't either um just for the record uh Tomlin the Steelers off a buy in his uh in his time as the coach they're the second best team after this after

the Patriots I know I know I know I just want to I just want to give him his flowers okay like week five onward Tomlin is 45 20 and two against the spread as an underdog 37 and 30 as an underdog on the money line so but they have good teams and in the past it's insane right but they had a hall of fame quarterback for most of that so we have to like keep that into account somebody said i was whoever i was listening to say this this week is like if the rams are up 14 nothing this game's done like if they get the ball first and score and then score again the game's over so i actually like this also just doesn't feel like oh like we're getting disrespected we're the stealers like that's where tomlin like

really gets up for games like this i just i don't feel like i feel like they're kind of coasting like they're the they're you know they're three and three is that right they're they're three and two like they're no one's no one's really saying saying the Steelers count them out. Everyone's like, oh, okay, they're fine. I don't think that offense got fixed in the bye. We could be wrong. We could look like morons for not taking Tomlin as an underdog. But the splits also favor him at home. So I don't know if I actually think I'd be on the Rams here if you were,

but I don't really want to go against Tomlin. Well, I'm looking at the rest of the schedule we might we might we're gonna have to take someone else there's a lot of games left i think we're gonna be on uh i'll put this game i put this game in like my side category like my might come back to it later and discuss it um all right let's go to a game i i can't imagine we have any thoughts on this game yeah do you the packers no no the packers are the two point favorites in denver no i don't want the broncos but like that's the side like what are we doing here like basically the the way the reason you would take the broncos here is like their offense can score and at some point like they're gonna not be just terrible and i think green bay i think green bay

is like still riding on some perception that jordan love might be good like jordan love is not not it and i i think it's i don't think they deserve three road favorites i think this is just the broncos suck and there's just like a lot of noise about this team like if if they were to just like get it together for a game you know if their defense has improved at all then this seems to be like a spot where you would take them i don't feel strongly enough about it certainly the the the sharp side i'll tell you that yeah that's because nope who what what joe public person is going to want to run to vandal and put on it the broncos ticket no one so you know plus two for denver is is about the grossest play you can make but i i don't feel strongly enough about it to push for it but if we're running short and i only see maybe one or two games left that we like.

Well, we'll see. And I don't even know if we're going to like this next one. So let's get to that. Let's get to that one. Let's do it. I have – go ahead. Go ahead. Yeah, let's do it. So the Chargers are playing the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are laying five and a half. And we have to take the Chargers. We have to do it. Let's talk about this very quickly. Every person's on the Chargers. We have to do it. Let's talk about this very quickly. Every person's on the Chargers this weekend. I'm just telling you. Every person's on the Chargers. Okay.

I just want to make that very clear. Make that clear. Herbert has started five games against the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes has played. The results of that game have been the Chiefs have won the game three times by three points. The Chargers won in overtime. The Chiefs won have won the game three times by three points. The Chargers won in overtime and the Chiefs won in overtime.

Those games are both six points. The Chargers are on the play here. It's tough as a Chiefs fan to pick the Chargers because I don't want to root for a cover at any point in this game. That's the hard part about it is a fan, right? Rooting for if they see the other team to cover a game. Dude, I'm looking at the action network app right now and of course the money splits are are just sort of you know they're they're not vegas splits essentially right they're kind of the online wagering um do you want to be on a side with 78 of tickets and 84 of money's on with the chargers it feels so public and everyone's doing it that

oh no man they're out there monday night football short week herbert's busted hand chiefs have a little bit of rest and preparation i get it matt if you want to put it in there i'm totally fine with it i think it's the right play but just laying out the reasons why it's it's different than what we normally do it's different in that it's public yes huge public like underdog everyone's taking it's the fucking chargers right so here's the case so you mentioned those previous games in any of those previous games at no point were the Chargers losing by more than three at the end of regulation. They lost

by six in overtime in one of the matchups. It was 3-3-3-0-0 at the end of regulation. The case for the Chargers, I almost said San Diego, they're literally down the street from me. This is their season. If they lose this game,

they're done. If they go to 2-4 and the Chiefs are 6-1 lose this game, they're done. Like if they go to two and four and the Chiefs are six and one with the game, it's over. And I'm not saying that they're going to win, but I'm saying that like this is their kitchen sink, empty the bag, like throw it all out there because if they lose, it is completely over for them. And Kansas City, their offense,

I know that we've talked about it on this show and that they're going to turn it around. They simply haven't yet. I think that the Chargers were also getting them at a point where they looked terrible against Dallas. They're not a good home team. They're going on the road. They've actually, with Staley and Herbert,

have been better proportionately on short rest. I maybe they're just like they're getting their own heads a little um so i look yes it's public yes it's kind of weird the line hasn't moved at all but i think that you know this is probably a field goal type of game it's probably a last possession type of game and the chart like honestly the chargers are dead if they lose and like if they if they get killed and it's a blowout and they quit on their coach i'll take the l but i just think that they they have too much talent to do that and i think that this is going to be a close one yeah um i I'm fine with it. I mean, it's a – I wrote an article for Fox Sports this week about this game. Like, I think you just take the Chargers.

You just sort of have to. The Chargers treat this game like a Super Bowl each and every year. It's a close game. The Chiefs' offense has not functioned quite up to potential yet. The McCall-Hardman trade is not going to make that happen this week. So it's the right play. I'm just bringing up other reasons why you wouldn't take this game. But I'm with you.

Plus five and a half. Let's do it. I have a strong opinion about the next game. So let's hit that one. Two good games. The best game probably of the season so far. The Dolphins are going to Philly. Philly is starting out that insane stretch where they play every good team in the league uh the current line i just want to double check i think it's still at

two and a half for philly is that right yeah yeah um okay go ahead i like eagles a lot in this game um you have a situation where the eagles are off a loss Things have not looked particularly good, and they are a championship roster and a championship team, and I expect them to play better this week, to be quite honest. The Dolphins' defense is 27th in DVOA. It's not a good defense, Matt. It has not played well this season, which I think it kind of gives the Eagles a boost in this game. More importantly, let's look at the –

I'm going to pull it up right here. They're in the AFC East. Dolphins, who they played so far, okay? Beat the Chargers by two, right? Good win. They beat Mac Jones. They beat Russell Wilson. They got their asses kicked by the Bills in Buffalo.

They beat Daniel Jones, and they beat Bryce Young. It's not the Eagles. It's not in Philly. Lane Johnson, I think is going to play, which makes me feel different about the Eagles. Like if he wasn't going to play, I'd be like, I don't know, but I think he's going to try to play. I think the Eagles just physically take it to the Dolphins in this game,

and I'm taking Philly in this. Okay, I'm fine with that. I've sort of gone back and forth on this one this week. The thing that mainly concerns me is Lane Johnson. The stats are unreal when he plays versus when he doesn't. For some reason, it appears, yeah, Eagles are 13-22 without him and 84-48-1 with him in his career. That's like too much of a sample size to be a coincidence. Eagles are way better at home.

That's something that we flagged. Was it last week? Were we out? No. We talked about the Jets last week. We didn't have the stomach. No, no. we considered them he's he's definitely better at home you're catching them at possibly a low point they just lost to the jets everyone watched everyone got killed in their survivor pools or whatever um do you want to know something i i had the texans in my survivor last

weekend how about that? Wow. Well, I'm putting Seattle in this week now that we're taking them. I put Seattle, correct. Yeah, that's a smart one. So Jalen Carter should be back. That's going to be a big help. The Dolphins. I'm scared of going up against this Dolphins team, man.

They could have it. I'm not in this game. I'm not in this game. I just think that the physicality of the Eagles, especially in the trenches, the Dolphins have played one of those teams this season and got pushed around. They played the Patriots, the Broncos, the Giants, and Panthers.

The Chargers are good. That's a good win. The Giants have the worst offense line in the NFL. The Panthers might be in the bottom five. We just talked about the Patriots having not a single soul on their team that would start anyone else's offense outside of Trent Brown.

The Eagles are a real football team. The Dolphins have not won this game this year. And they look bad in this game. It's two and a half, man. The Eagles have had trouble in the red zone. well you know what helps in the red zone running the ball against a 27th ranked dvoa defense that that that that typically helps um so i am uh i just think that i think they get this done the offense are 25th and against the run for dvoa the that's a big stat i mean to the only thing i would possibly argue on the other side the eagles wins also the

patriots the vikings the bucks yeah the commies the rams that's okay and now the jets and just like this doesn't matter for this week but uh clearly the Dolphins did not throw their fastball last week. Like they were down 14, nothing. And then they started playing against the Panthers. Like we were on the Panthers. Sorry, because I figured like they weren't going to try to blow them out because

they had this game, the Eagles. Now they have the Dolphins this week. They have the commanders who always give them trouble next week. Then it's Cowboys at chiefs, bills, Niners at, at seahawks that is absolutely brutal so i don't know how they're viewing this one in their gauntlet but we're gonna see how real the eagles are and every year this team that loses the super bowl stumbles and we haven't seen it yet

so i feel like i could get talked into either side here. I think the fact that Lane Johnson is potentially playing is massive. So I'm fine with it, but we could – this is going to be a fun game no matter what. So I'm glad to have his side. Yeah, it looks like Lane, Jalen Carter, and Devontae Smith all practiced today. So that's pretty good on a Friday if they're practicing. All right, one more. I don't think we'll have a play here, but we could talk this one through. This is the only – the only side is a gross one.

So Minnesota's hosting the 49ers who are laying seven. Is that still the right line? Is it seven or six? If it's seven. I mean, so the other thing, Jeff, 92% of the money is on the 49ers. It's off of a bounce back. It's off of a loss. It's a redemption game.

We don't know what the deal is with McCaffrey or Debo. It's basically a Kirk Cousins saving season type of game. Sorry. Well, he's supposed to save a season the previous week and the week before that. All right, so here's the thing. If we do Minnesota plus seven, we have to kick out Indy,

Baltimore, Seattle, Philly chargers. Are we kicking one out to bet on Kirk cousins to cover against a really good Niners team of a loss? Like that's the thing, right? Say them again.

Indy, Baltimore, Seattle, Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, Philly, and the chargers. Cause I don't, do, Seattle, Philly. Indy, Baltimore, Seattle, Philly, and the Chargers.

Because I don't like Minnesota. Do you? Maybe we do this. Maybe we hold on the Deshaun Watson thing, and we just say if this line moves to like six, I guess, though, if it moves to six, we're going to take Indy plus six. Potentially, right? Yes. So we're not taking that out um and if pj walker's in then we're getting a you know then it could move down so we are probably getting the best of the number uh we have we have avoided staying away from money

football and i'm not sure do you want to sit there and be like two and two and have to think about Kirk Cousins covering for you? Or would you rather have Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith against a bad Cardinals team? Herbert plays well against the Chiefs. I just can't stomach the Vikings in this spot. I'm fine with our five. I think we've got some good ones. I think the

Baltimore and the Seattle ones are going to stress us out. And the Philly one is going to stress us out because Tyreek Hill could just kill us himself. I'm fine with these. The Chargers are going to stress us out. The Chargers are definitely going to stress us out. This is a tough week. If we go 3-2 this week, let's just get that out here right now.

3-2 would be awesome. This is a really tough week. There's a bunch of teams on by. There's a bunch of weird weather coming to the whole country, it feels like. Yeah. So let's just survive. Let's just get this. Let's just bank another winning week here.

So Indy plus 3. Baltimore minus 3. Seattle minus 7.5. Chargers plus 5.5. It's so weird to have to root for their team, but also hope they don't win by too many points. And Philly minus the two and a half. We'll put

these in the Vaulted app. We'll come back in just a second, and we'll talk about the Vaulted predictions that we like for the week. We'll talk to you in just a second, guys. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with Vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge.

Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes, and there are no entry fees required to participate.

This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week so join vaulted and you can like dislike comment interact with my predictions or if you're bold enough you can make your own and see how smart you are in football which won't be as smart as me go download vaulted spelled v-l-t-e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along guys i want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game i have been playing this season

prize picks is a skill-based real money daily fantasy sports game how does it work you pick two to six players and if they will go more or less than the prize picks projection you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry so go to prize picks and use code g ssy for a first deposit match up to 100 it's so easy to use i can make my picks in less than 60 seconds the depositing was simple and straightforward they even just added apple pay so i was able to get up in minutes and start playing at prize picks you're competing against other people it's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better.

Remember, go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. All right, we're back. Let's talk about the Vaulted predictions. Again, go to the Vaulted app. Look for my name, Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. Join the pool. It's free to enter. If you win, you're $400.

If you finish second place, you get $75. If you finish third place, you get $25. And if you beat me, you get to enter into the big game pool. That's $5,000 a day of the big game. A ton of fun, guys. We'll go over some of the ones we like here. You can actually put in your confidence from 1 to 10. I i just put ten now i'll do ten for all of them doesn't work out great some weeks i finished third one week so it worked out well it's a ton

of fun guys trust me you'll you'll enjoy doing this so some of these that i that i see so far um that i uh i i have had my eye on um the commanders will score more than 20 and a half points against the giants i feel like the answers the answers disagree right like these games are always super low scoring and ugly and gross and are they scoring more than 20 against the giants in this game no i think the giants win this game i think there's another option of the commanders will cover i would definitely take the other side on the giants yeah um the bills will score more than 24 and a half points at the patriots i think that's yes they've had two down weeks on offense now i think they come against new england who again is missing their uh their best two defensive

players and has not played well on defense matt Matt. They allowed the Raiders to score 21, I guess 19 points, plus a safety 21. The Saints entered the game last night with eight offensive touchdowns the entire season. Three were against the Patriots. I think the Bills will score a bunch of points. I agree with that. They'll go over. We talked about the Seahawks covering against the Cardinals.

You mentioned Cardinals rushing defense, Matt. Here's a good one, right? Kenneth Walker will score more than half a rushing touchdown against the Cardinals. You mentioned Cardinals rushing defense, Matt. Here's a good one, right? Kenneth Walker will score more than half a rushing touchdown against the Cardinals. I agree, right? Oh, 100%. Yes. Kenneth Walker, if you have him in fantasy,

he's going to go crazy this week. Here's a fun one. Mahomes will have more rushing yards than Justin Herbert. I'm going to go with agree. Agree on that one. What do you think? Interesting. I don't have a really strong

take there but i did want to can i go back to the bills for a second yeah yeah i just want to say if you like them team total over the best reason you don't think they want to blow out the patriots like do we remember the patriots 35 and 5 for 20 years against buffalo like buffalo is going to do everything they can to blow out the Patriots forever. Like, their fans are going to be up for every single game. The Patriots can be 1-15. Those fans are going to be loud. So, anyway, keep going.

The last one for me that I like, that I love, and again, we'll answer all 20 of these on the app. Go on the app here. Kirk Cousins will have more pass yards than Brock Purdy. I'm going to agree here. I think he has to. He just has to. Otherwise, they're going to get their butts whooped.

They're going to be throwing a lot. The rushing attack without Dalvin Cook has been tragic in Minnesota. The one below that, T.J. Hawkinson, has more catches than George Kittle. Since Justin Jefferson's been out, T.J. Hawkinson'sinson's gotten 11 8 and 9 targets a huge part of that passing game kittle can have these whole games where he disappears that'd be a 10-pointer for me nice all right we got him in guys another week again we're off to great start

through six weeks yeah now to week seven so what i i wanted to maybe give a heads up on on the rest on the next couple weeks here and also sort of just just check in i i could use a check-in with my friend jeff here um we've been doing a lot of shows together lately but i we haven't really talked about this much so uh we are our son is due uh in 12 days we'll see if we make it 12 days from now not our son by the way matt's matt's yeah yeah great yes that would be magnificent um so yeah we my wife and i are expecting our first son in 12 days so i'm probably going to take some time off of the show um with jeff and i have decided that we're so scorching hot that I will still try to get involved, even if I have to miss some shows. I will say my wife was awesome.

Last night, I was just sort of talking about what life was going to look like in November. And she was like, no, you should definitely do Jeff's show. What are you talking about? You love doing it. You should absolutely jump in and do it. And I was like, you're the best. We'll see. But I might sort of blow off the rest of my job. This is,

this is more fun anyway than, than work. So hopefully I'll come back in a couple of weeks, but if I happen to disappear quickly, that's why. So I told Matt this yesterday and all the fathers will understand this. I think it's like, there's not much for the dad to do early on. They're just not right. You're supporting your wife and you're just trying to make sure that you guys survive the first month, right? That's just what it is. You will have time to do this show if you would like to, I promise you.

You don't know that yet. You don't know that yet. I'm just telling you, you don't know that yet because it's unknown. And I joked with you the other day, like if we have a third kid, which we're not going to have, I wouldn't miss any work.

I'd just be like, hon, I'm going to work. Like, well, like everyone's fine. The kids are fine. just be like hon i'm going to work like well like everyone's fine the kids are fine you're fine let's go to work um no like i uh you're congratulations first of all everything's gonna be fine thanks buddy i think you'll find out that you will have time to do the show i'm banking on it if not the show i would like to but i think i think you'll be here to but i think i think you'll be okay go ahead no i thank you for saying all of that i i think um i'm trying to not work that's really it like i want to really enjoy this time and be present and not but so like you know i'm like well i'm not gonna be at work but i'll definitely do the one thing about my job that i'm that Like, I'll come and do this.

Like, are you kidding me? So I need to make sure, like, I need to make sure my wife's cool. I need to make sure Gabe's cool and Nick's cool. Like, I just, you know, I don't rock the apple cart too much. So I wanted to put out the expectation, like, I might be gone for a month. Look, just hop in for a minute. It's one hour a day on Friday. It's all you got to do.

I mean, look, I know we're making millions on this podcast uh so well i'll throw you some money to keep you afloat um and uh are you excited are you nervous like what's it what are we feeling yeah man i'm excited and nervous it's definitely sort of you know the last couple days you're just sort of like it's just kind of out of your hands you're just like cool do you have your go bag ready you have like you have the bag ready to go right here actually yeah with a little note card of like remember your phone charger remember your laptop like other stuff like that you have your go bag ready you have like you have the bag ready to go right here actually yep it's with a little note card of like remember your phone charger remember your laptop like other stuff like that you have do you have your car seat set up car seat is set up do you are you supposed to take it in with you um not when you're not i mean no like you can grab the car seat after you have the kid it's okay well i realized that we have to have

the kid at some point before the car seat is no i'm saying like when you go we have it when you go into the hospital you don't have to bring your car seat with you until you're leaving then you'll go get it right right but i think we actually walked out of the hospital i think she was holding alex i think i don't remember i'm supposed supposed to make sure that your car seat is set up, and they didn't do that at all for us. I don't think I even had it set up. It's mid-July in the South. I'm pouring sweat in the parking garage of the hospital

trying to install the car seat correctly. That's awesome. It's all a blur, man. The first time, you're like, holy shit. It happens fast. I would advise you, if she's having a natural birth, to watch it. Watch it. I know you don't think you're going to want to watch it.

Really? Yeah, you should absolutely watch it. Yes, absolutely. Even if it grosses you out or you think it's going to be weird, it's the best thing ever. Your appreciation for your spouse increases like a thousandfold when you see them give birth to your kids. It's incredible. increases like a thousand fold when you see them give birth to your to your kids uh it's

incredible so you'll have i would imagine a lot of fun but you'll still be able to do the podcast you know let's like set the set the set the sleep schedule around the podcast you know yeah that's right the changing table is right next to me so i don't know how we're going to figure that out but the uh did i tell you this so we're we're getting uh we're delivering it at st john's up here in santa monica close i was born oh you were born there yeah oh my gosh that's crazy so the um that's great i'd love to hear that uh how was it was it good for you you seem like it seemed like you turned out fine okay yeah you're doing great um so so i don't know if the last time you were there it could have been when you were born um probably maybe when mitch was born but the uh they don't have this is the

most la thing i've ever heard they have they don't have a parking lot they have valet they have valet at the hospital so you drive up and you give some guy your key and then they go. And when you, when I'm coming out, like, we're going to have to like the first thing my son's going to do in his life is wait for the valet. Like that's the most LA thing you've ever heard. Like that's so dumb. The hospital here has valet. I think now too.

I think really. They also have parking though. They're both. Yeah. There's no parking options. Like you can't park your car how much is the valet i mean you could god it's a great question man i all the parking fees from like the the ob and stuff should be part of the deductible man it's crazy it's like

yeah they can charge you whatever like you're gonna pay it because you have to go to the hospital yeah it's like what other options do i have like no, I think I can find a good spot across the block. Like, imagine that one. That would be fun. Yeah, and you can't take an Uber. Like, what are we doing? So it'll be a journey. An Uber.

Hey, I'm always giving birth. I'll give you five stars if you hurry up. Yeah, seriously. All I'm saying, Jeff, a lot of money going out. The Seahawks better cover the first we need to have the first weekend of your son's life be profitable one i know i just i'm really hoping he's not born on a sunday did you see sean mcveigh he was like he's it i i think i'm i'm starting to get a little rams affinity. You know, I'm exploring other options in my marriage to the commanders.

And Sean Vervea is due right around now, too. And he said, you know, a reporter asked him, hey, what's going to happen if your son's born during the game? And he said, my son knows better than to be born on a Sunday. And I was like, that's me, too. He's not going to miss a whole Sunday games. Your son's first game he will watch most likely will be Commanders at Patriots. What a game. Oh, no.

I can't subject him to that. What a game. He's not going to face the screen. He's going to be like, no, no. Here's the thing, though. You have to decide this now. Are you going to go Gabe's route and have him be local L.A. sports fans and disown your childhood

team like like gabe has with the jets are you gonna let them are you gonna let him be a commander's fan and maybe also root for like the chargers or something i think it's probably going to be the latter like i think i think i'm rams curious mostly I can't – I've tried every team on out here from, like, the Lakers, which felt weird, to, like, the Clippers, whatever. The Chargers, I can't go from the Commanders to the Chargers. Like, it's the same thing, except maybe worse. Like, at least the Commanders have some history to lean back on the Chargers. Like, terrible owner, cursed.

Like, the same team every goddamn year like the commanders at least like they got the new owner we're kind of out of the way i do feel like the rams i could maybe get behind like i love mcveigh i've met him we have this funny little thing in common with our son's birth times uh he's our age he's cool like if he's there like i feel like i can get behind the rams like they won the super bowl like a couple weeks after i moved out here where i saw where i saw you at uh the promenade so i i don't know we'll see i feel like he might he might dabble is i think the answer what about what about like the dodgers this is a great question uh and thanks to everyone

who's still listening at this point the dodgers the the dodgers and the lakers feel like kind of like the yankees and like the knicks felt to me when i lived in new york where it's like i don't know if you're allowed to just like jump into this whole historical thing like the rams and the charges i feel like it's open season there's not a huge fan base already yeah i feel like the dodgers is like it's like changing your religion like you really have to get into it. You can't just like, whatever. I'm a Dodgers fan.

So my, my take on that is your son can be a Dodgers fan. You can't. If he wants to. Oh, interesting. Right. Like, yeah, I think that's a good call for Lakers too. Yeah. Yeah.

But I mean, you don't want to wait for the bullets though, which is all, I mean, like the wizards are bad. You guys, we might want to win for the Bullets, though, which is, I mean, like, the Wizards are bad. We might want to be a Lakers fan. That would be a pretty easy sell. I'm going to be honest. I feel like once LeBron goes, because, like, you're either a LeBron guy or you're not,

and I'm kind of, like, in the middle. Like, I just, like, respect him a lot, but I'm not, like, I've never been one of his guys. So I feel like in the post-Leon era which will be like when my son starts caring about sports maybe uh that's that might be when i jump in on the uh anthony davis as a 37 year old who plays four games a year lakers yeah that sounds fun um all right buddy we're good yeah i think we i think we covered everything 15 minutes of my life thanks everybody who stuck around um but yeah hopefully

i'll be back next week to celebrate at least i think we'll be good week yeah well we should be good there well everyone wish matt a happy uh i mean what do you even wish a happy birth birthing it's not even your birthday yeah i wish my my wife wife a healthy healthy healthy birth yes um so we'll be back next week i think matt will be we'll get one more week with matt and then we have to do some adjustments we'll talk about the adjustments moving forward we're keeping the podcast obviously well i think i have a couple ideas for a format without matt but hopefully he's able to make it uh we'll be back next week everyone take care have a good weekend