Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 8

Episode Date: October 27, 2023

Matt and Geoff cannot be stopped! They are 4-1 ATS in 4 straight weeks bringing them to a record of 23-10-2. This week they look through the slate to find which large favorites they like and which scare them away. Do they go with their usual Mike Tomlin road dogs theory or do they look elsewhere as Joe Burrow is an underdog against Sam Darnold? Plus they make their picks in this weeks VLTED pool. Entries are free and there is a chance to win up to $500. Sign up and play along!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday october 27th i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff schwartz as smart and you were live on twitter youtube on your favorite podcast platform of choice thank you as usual for joining us we preview the nfl weekend on fridays we're brought to you by the vaulted at the home of my season long game we're giving out 14 000 of cash prizes in my pools with 5 000 allocated to my final pool of the season which will be the day of the big game that's vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees,

and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself. Using a vaulted challenge feature, I have my own pool in vaulted each week. We can answer 20 questions to win cash prizes. There are no entry fees required to participate. First place gets $400. Second place, $75. Second place, $75. Third place, $25.

It's the only way to qualify for my big game pools to beat me in one of my regular season pools. We'll also be using Vaulted to store the five predictions that we make at the end of this show and that app as well. Download Vaulted, V-L-T-E-D. Remember to use my code Jeff. That's Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. You can see my predictions and play along.

And remember, at the end of this show, we'll go over the predictions that we like this week. There's 20 of them, as we do each week, Matt. It's a lot of fun to do. And the most fun to do is this show with you because we are 23-10-1 in Broncos. That Broncos is actually a tie. So we're 23-10-2.

We've had three straight weeks of 4-1. This is the final week matt you're on our show for now next weekend next week there's an important thing happening in your life so you will not be here i don't think we've talked about before you're having a kid not you specifically your wife is and so wish you the best of luck in that endeavor but i'll tell you what though you can't leave me because we are doing so well this year matt so i i need you to at least let me know what your picks will be next week if you're not on the show friday but after that your ass better be on this show okay i'm just letting you know i'm like sean mcveigh i he gave birth i think wednesday

tuesday or wednesday or something like that this week i think his wife would be upset i think his wife would be upset if you said he gave birth, his wife gave birth and they have, they have a child family now. Yeah. The McVeigh family. Yes. Members deep.

Three members deep. So we wish you obviously you and Ivy, the best of luck next week. You'll be back as soon as possible next week, guys, we're going to do something different. We'll probably have an interview. I'll go over the,

the pics and the vaulted stuff kind of by myself with input from Matt, he will have to text me what he likes for the week because very rarely do I like five games. Very rarely does he like five games. We sort of put them together, end up with the five, as we do on every Friday. We'll go over all the games. We'll choose our five favorite, and at the end, we'll go over our vaulted pool picks of the week.

Weird week as usual in the NFL. Look, guys, the thing about the NFL is that each week is its own week. Don't look at last week. Don't look at the week ahead. It's its own week. We saw it last night. The Bulls cannot cover against the Bucs. They should cover against.

And the Bills, before we get into the games this week, Matt, the Bills feel like an unserious playoff contender. Like, what are the Bills? Does anyone know what they are? Do the does anyone know what they are do the bills know what they are no they should have probably lost two games that they ended up winning the giants game and then last night that crazy i mean chris codwin's getting just flamed on on the platform used formerly known as twitter that's lost all of its money in the last year um with that he's a genius the ball is like right next to him jeff i mean that's lost all of its money in the last year. With that, the ball was like right next to him. Jeff,

a lot of commentary about that, that human being, but, but back to the bucks. I mean, the bucks, the bucks are not a good team at all. And the bills,

I, I just, I don't know what the bills are going to do. Their defenses with the, with the loss of three key guys has not looked the same. So yeah, they could be in trouble. They could be a team that just ends up missing the playoffs altogether. I, it, it, but I don't, I don't know.

It's when seven teams make the playoffs, they'll figure out a way to get in. But this is just kind of like a worse version of what they've been for a while. I think, you know, they, they just, they just, maybe they'll just never get there speaking about teams that are worst versions of what they've ever been indianapolis and new orleans are i think it's our first game on the run down here yikes man start off with a bang with with a game that we're going to spend so much time talking about yeah well i will say when i

talked to our producer nick yesterday he was i was, what's your favorite game this week? And this was his. I don't know why. What? I think it's possibly because I think Gardner Minshew is 3-10 in his last 13. I'm doing that off the top of my head. I think he is. Yeah, so that could be why. Saints would probably be my play here, but this is not one of our five.

No. No, thank you. Should we just save everyone some time yeah gardner minshu is so up and down like one week i guess jacksonville is bad and last week he's really good um yeah i would uh i'd stay away from this one if i were you guys um no no play for me on this one the next game though is uh interesting this is it might be tendency breaker we'll we'll find out go ahead matt yeah this is interesting by the way jacksonville only team in the nfl to score 20 points in every

game this season what is that that's so that's insane um the next game lowest it's been i think scoring is down the lowest since 2010 2011 something like that yeah unders are remain uh the play to make um all right this is a two teams that are in the playoff race right now jacksonville is going to pittsburgh jacksonville's favored by two and a half uh usually if you're a listener to this show this is one of those times where jeff and i would just sort of not even discuss this game and just hammer the steelers um but it seems like we both have that weird feeling in our stomach this week about this game. There's something weird about this line. There's something weird about Pittsburgh coming back from a road win

and sort of getting all their flowers for winning another game off of the bye. So we sort of have the same feeling, right? Yeah. I think Jacksonville is the right play here. Even though it goes against all the Tomlin. You know, we could just blindly take Pittsburgh like we always have and hope for the best. But, I mean, think about the last two Pittsburgh games.

They beat the Ravens, right, before their bye. That was the last game before the bye, if I'm correct. They beat them 17-10 in a game where the Ravens outscored them. The Ravens looked better than them. The entire gear turnover locked and sort of weird things had to happen. It was a classic Steelers win, right? Then they go and play the Rams. And, again, like sort of you look at the box score and you're like,

yeah, the Rams were 9 of 16 on third down, which is 4 of 12 on third down. The Steelers had – the Rams had more yards passing. They rushed the ball better. They had less penalties. They had the one turnover. They had the ball a little bit more with time possessions not terribly important. The Rams had more first downs. And you're like, the Steelers win by seven.

It's like, what are we doing? Like, what are we doing, man? Oh, man. like what are we doing man i oh man i i don't i would feel like if we took pittsburgh here blindly like we always do we would just be like when jackson wins came at 14 points we'd be like we were we were wrong you know i mean yeah so yeah i would stay away i would stay away i would stay away yeah i feel like we should as well. A couple of things on this. Deontay Johnson back on the injury report.

Their offense really did look different with him. If you think about it, honestly, Pittsburgh at Matt Canada has gotten so much shit this year from fans. No Fryermuth, no Deontay Johnson. I don't think they've gotten a ton of credit for those injuries and and overcoming them but without johnson back it's back to pickens and that jacksonville secondary is not great but um it certainly helps to have their first receiver potentially not playing um and jacksonville you know this this is a really public dog and vegas hanging this line and it not moving all week despite, I think, both.

It was 1.5. It opened at 1.5. Yeah, okay. So now it's split in the money, so this is probably where it'll end up landing at 2.5. But look, Jacksonville, over the last year, this is a good point, Nick Ray. They've lost four games in the last fiveville over the last year um this is a good point right they they've lost four games in the last five games in the last year one to the lions one to houston this year

and three to the chiefs like jacksonville's good and they kind of fly under the radar because they play in london they play on thursdays they play the afc south so i just feel like this is a little bit of a trick but i'm not betting against the Steelers here, but I agree. I think this is just one that we lay off because the trends obviously favor Pittsburgh, but I don't think we can do it. I don't think we can either. That was good. I'm glad we netted out on the same spot there.

Yes, I think we're in the same spot. I think we're in the same spot this next game too. I'm very curious about this one houston is going to carolina battle of the number one and number two picks the texans they're both off a buy the texans are road favorite of three points um we're not three and a half carolina here it's three and a half at some places. Oh, we're taking Carolina plus three and a half. Yes. This is Matt. We're not. Okay. No.

Okay. Matt. No, Matt. You're taking, this is the spot in the ugly. This is the ugly spot. You have to take. We have to take the worst teams against better teams. Carolina's off a bye.

They have a new play caller. And they need a win in the worst possible way. Everyone's on the Texans this weekend. All the public's going to be like, oh, Panthers stink. Let's go Texans here. I do a show called Bear Bets, another podcast. I cheated on our

podcast with another podcast. Sammy P is one of the guys on the show. He has a buddy called the bartender. The bartender sends him picks every week, and he posts them on the internet. And the bartender is always wrong. That's the point of this, right? The bartender is wrong every week, Matt. The bartender loves – he said he loves Houston this week.

That's the public. The public – it's a real person. I thought it was actually a fake thing. Sammy puts this out, bartender picks each week. The bartender loves Houston. Loves Houston. So, maybe that's the reason to take Carolina here. To me, it's a maybe.

Carolina plus three and a half is a maybe for me because it's everything that we have wagered on in the past. And it's a good spot to fade a team in Houston that people are going to wager on that don't deserve it. It's so funny that you came in with this take because I had the exact same take and I was going to, I thought we were just not going to discuss this. And I was like, you know what? I actually like Carolina as a money line dog this week. I think for all the reasons you said, and remember, they were up 14, nothing to Miami and in a game where we took Miami.

So I ended up watching a decent amount of that. And, you know, things changed, right? They just looked a little bit sharper. Bryce Young looked a little more comfortable. They've gotten some guys back. Their secondary still isn't back. So, you know, I think there's a good chance there's going to be a lot of points in this game. This is a pretty low total if you're looking at any of those.

So I do do think you know carolina also they haven't covered yet i think they're oh they're oh five and one or six one yeah they haven't covered it yeah and and that just doesn't happen like at some point like the market just keeps moving until they get to that point um i agree that houston is sort of like one of these public teams that everyone likes so back in the panthers would be our move here the three and a half is interesting uh i will say that but i i i'm fine sliding this as a maybe and keeping it in the conversation but i'm definitely not locking in uh bryce young and adam feeling to pull off no we don't have to lock it in but i think it's really it's only a discussion of games as we

kind of peer down the list of of games here um yeah so let's uh let's go to the next one because i think this one we might agree on yeah maybe um okay that's philly at my washington commanders uh that philly is laying six and a half off of a big uh prime time seven it's it's seven across the board now. Seven across the board. Interesting. Okay. It's nice doing – this is like a really nice time to get the Lions, Friday morning Pacific.

So, obviously, the trends here all tell you to take Washington. I assume that would be the side you're on. Yes. I'd like to hear your case for it. Well, the case is that this is the game Washington plays well every year. This is the game they always play well. They just almost beat the Eagles a couple weekends ago. They just have an embarrassing loss to the Giants.

The Eagles just had a big win. The narrative is sort of aligned for Washington to play this game pretty close. We get seven points. It's a must-win for points. It's a must win for Washington. It's a division game. Division games under Ron Rivera tend to be pretty close, right, over the years. I think outside of Dallas, I think Dallas kicks Washington's ass,

though, right? It's really out of the Eagles and Giants that tend to be close games. I think seven is just a lot of points for a divisional game where Washington has played the Eagles close over the years. Yeah. What scares me is that's sort of everyone's opinion now, and I'm a little bit worried about it. Here are the things that –

Is everyone's opinion matters or just everyone's or the public? Is it the public opinion of the people that we trust? Well, a little both. I mean, I think people remember that random that random Monday night game last year and give Washington a lot of credit for it. I do. So here's the case you could make for Washington. The first is these two teams played, I think three weeks ago, two or three weeks ago. Generally those, those games,

so the trends say that eventually that second matchup is a little bit closer right like there's they don't have to like do a whole lot of film study they know it's coming that game was really close um the reason washington lost that game was they had this rookie corner who got drafted a slot before your guy gonzalez from oregon one-on-one with aj brown and he just got torched twice and that was the difference in the game and then Ron Rivera didn't go for two so it was a close matchup uh Hurts is worse on the road uh Hurts is clearly like a little bit banged up right like he's just not he's clearly like not totally himself um the Eagles also are coming as I mentioned off of a big prime time win um Washington in traditionally with Rivera they've they've done really well in the division

uh 24 15 and one against the spread as a dog in the nfc or sorry in his own division ever eight four and one against the spread with washington um the problem is you know this sam howell sack thing and if philly can continue to get home um and you know they just hand the ball off with with Swift 100 times. This could end up being a bit of a blowout. But I agree with the seven, I think, especially. Like, this is going to be everyone's teaser game. This is going to be everyone's, like, leg in the money line parlay.

Like, it just seems a little bit weird that this hasn't moved more. So I'm okay with taking the risk on Washington, especially if we're getting a full touchdown. The thing about it, too, is, like, moved more um so i'm okay with i'm okay with taking the risk on washington especially for getting a full touchdown the thing about it too is like i just don't know how many other games that we like on this okay taking the commanders at home in this spot again seven points for a lot of wagers that we might have to take to get to five yeah well we'll see let's put it let's put it through um and then let's move down on this list here this this game i feel like everyone has an opinion on and i i kind of don't spoiler alert here this is the rams and the cowboys new dad sean mcveigh is getting six and a half

maybe seven now um in dallas i feel like everyone wants to bet one side of this game, and I just don't really see a big advantage. It's 6-6.5. I think I would take the Rams, but don't feel great about it. It's like that simple, right? Like, I just don't feel great about the Rams in this spot. Cowboys are off a bye. I think the thing with the Rams, and we bet the Rams to make the playoffs a couple weeks ago.

They lost to the Steelers. It's like, I don't really know what they are still, man. That worries me backing them on the road in this spot. I think they can – I think they'll be able to score with Dallas' deficiency in the secondary. But if their offensive line can't protect Stafford, then it doesn't matter. You know what I mean?

So, to me, this is a stay-away game. I don't really have a feel for this. Maybe you take the Cowboys and you tease them to half a point i guess but even though i don't feel great about the cowboys in this spot winning this game like to me this is just there's no play in this game whatsoever yeah i'm with you i just don't see a real advantage some people the people who like dallas point out that dax really good as a big favorite point out mccarthy's record off a buy although that's mostly inflated from his Aaron Rodgers days and now with his Dak Prescott days but the Rams can score like the Rams can move the ball through the air you know this Dallas defense is up and down like they could come back from this

bye week and maybe they've sort of you know they maybe they turned the Brandon Cook's corner he kind of got unlocked in their last game before the bye maybe their defense got a little healthier it seemed like Parsons wasn't totally himself uh the last few games so i don't know i just think we can find better games than this um i agree so moving on to the next game the new england patriots at the dolphins oh boy uh nine and a half is the current line it's been around here all week uh pros joes two-thirds of the tickets are on the Patriots now. So people are getting a little skeptical of the Dolphins. What do you think? Give me the Dolphins, buddy.

Give me the Dolphins here. I think we texted about this earlier this week. Okay, here's the thing. Okay, you ready? Matt, Matt, Matt, listen to me. I'm listening. Are the Dolphins playing a team that could physically beat them up in a line of scrimmage? Well, maybe.

I don't think so, but maybe. They played them pretty close at the beginning of the year. Yeah. The Dolphins won the game by seven points on the road. Okay. And now the Patriots are without Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon. The Dolphins have blown out teams the last month that are not on their level. The Patriots are not on their level. Today, who knows?

It's Friday. Who knows if he's telling the truth. But if he does play and Waddle plays, like what's the Patriots, how are they stopping Miami? A, they don't play well in Miami. And B, they're now overinflated because they won against the Jets, excuse me, the Bills, I should say. Dolphins lost to the Eagles. We've seen the Dolphins lose now two games to teams that punch them in the mouth.

The Patriots cannot do that. They are too slow on defense. They're not fast enough, and they're on the road. Is Mac Jones going to play another game like he did last weekend? Absolutely not. Dolphins minus nine, man. I bet this myself already, or nine and a half. I should say there's one nine out right now.

I think there's one nine out at South Point, but I'll take nine and a half as a consensus. We've been putting in sort of these big favorites each week um maybe it's our mistake at some point it runs out the luck runs out on these but i think just miami kicks their ass man interesting so i assumed that we would be talking patriots as our side here um but i i mean the reason that it makes me nervous is you've got hill on the injury report he'll play most start on the injury report he'll probably play um waddle who got injured last week he's just not looked totally right their offensive lines had some injuries yes you get Ramsey back, but does that even help? Great, he'll go against Kendrick Bourne. Super.

The other thing is that the Dolphins play next week at Kansas City, or I'm sorry, not at Kansas City, against Kansas City in Frankfurt. So I don't feel like they need to like, they just need to survive the game, I feel like. I imagine they do love to beat up on the Patriots. Obviously, Mac Jones has never covered against the Dolphins. like um they do i imagine they do love to beat up on the patriots obviously like mac jones has never covered against the dolphins uh two is much better at home than he is on the road this would be a nice game for them to bank but i'm just i'm a little worried just because of all their health

issues um so you know here's the thing we we said the same thing about carolina when they went to miami was that oh miami has to play the Eagles the next week, and they're going to look ahead, and they just keep the shit out of the Panthers. I mean, look, I don't think the Patriots are just – yeah. I like Miami a lot in this. It was my best bet on my Bear Bets podcast. Okay. I just think they keep the shit out of the – and it's okay to take a big favorite.

And the public's on New England. Matt, what are we doing? What are we doing? Come on. Come on. All right. So let's put that as a maybe. We've got the Dolphins playing nine.

And we've got the Commanders plus seven. We've got the Panthers as a maybe. All right. Let's move on to – it's so nice having every game this week, by the way. Yeah. All right. Jets, Giants. Let's see.

The line right now is three. The Jets are not road favorites. They're favorites on a neutral field to their neighbors in New York. The only side here is the Giants, but I don't want to do it. Do you? No Andrew Thomas still this week. No Daniel Jones. I don't think we have to spend much time on this game. We're not doing it. I do think the Giants, they're not out of the playoff

conversation. No, they're not out of the playoff conversation no they're not at all rod taylor is like a game a win if he wins this game it's his job and i think daniel jones they have to figure out what to do with that um agreed i just think this jets team is is sky high overvalued i can't i like obviously like they're not playing on the road but i see this these two teams is about even the giants two respectable efforts in a row once they change the quarterback day ball is the better quarterback or better coach excuse me um if we if we like didn't have a fifth game i would consider the giants but i think we're going to be able to find a couple other contenders here

so i think we'll pass on the snoopy ball and move on to good lord desmond ritter as a road favorite against some quarterback i think still to be named unless anything's changed in the last few minutes um still two and a half uh for atlanta in tennessee this again is one of those spots where you just sort of automatically would back rabel as a home underdog he's the second most profitable coach behind mike tomlin in that spot but do we have the confidence in will levis malik willis it's also it's also very much a five and one against the spread uh when he gets gets 12 more days of rest. Yeah. You're off a bye here.

It's such a gross game, though. So I hate when on Falcons games, I feel like they're just it's just always, I'm always on the wrong side. But we've been on this all year. I mean, the Falcons are not good.

Like, they are the Giants or the Vikings of last season. They might sneak into the playoffs and they get their asses kicked in the playoff game at home. I think if this is telling that it's not at three, even though Will Levis is starting in his first NFL

start, think about that. Is that official? Yeah. And this game is only two and a half. And that tells you that the Falcons are not good, but they're winning games, which is your job. You're supposed to win. They've beaten so far

the Panthers, the Packers by one, the Texans by two, and the Bucs by three. That's so far who they've taken care of. I mean, this is one we would just throw out the quarterback

and just assume that Vrabel with extra rest is a good guy to back with Desmond Ritter uh laying points on the road um this is the one i'm most comfortable with like just saying screw it let's just do it yeah i like the falcons yeah certainly than the pittsburgh one um that that's sort of the same absolutely all right so that's another maybe we've still got i mean that's

a full slate this week we've got a few games left this is one i actually am really curious about the last early game is minnesota at green bay man this line has bounced around all week as we are recording this the packers are catching a point and a half at home um yeah do you like this game? Yeah, I like Green Bay in this game. Do you like Green Bay? Me too. Yeah. Yeah. So, one, we just saw the Vikings beat the Niners on Monday Night Football.

So that's the time everyone's like, the Vikings, they're back. They beat the Niners on Monday Night Football. And we saw the Packers, which I did not watch a second of that game live. The Packers, Broncos game. The Packers right now are just not playing the best of football. They're 25th in DVOA right now. The Vikings are 16th. But the Packers, kind of the bits and pieces are there.

But I do feel like this is, again, that spot. And this is not like the best gambling advice of all time. But we've talked about this spot all season, right? Where one team is sort of getting the, and the are, and then you have another team like the Packers. They're just forgotten about, right? Forgotten about the Packers, Matt, are this is the, this is for their lives. If they don't win this game, they're two and five season is just done it's just done and that's really

but i don't think it's going to happen because i think green bay will bow up make enough plays to win this game take the point and a half uh anyways uh but i have green bay here plus a point and a half yeah me too um one of the reasons is you know we've we've talked about this this hot team thing this year where the team that everyone's all over the week before just has lost and you know some people think it's going to be baltimore baltimore seems like the hot team now i would actually argue it's the vikings because the things that people have been saying about kirk cousins this week are absolutely ludicrous and we do this every year and he's capable of having these good games like I've seen a lot of Kirk Cousins in my life the guy can light up another team like he's done it and he's done it on primetime before

actually against Green Bay a few times like he's he's got it sometimes what happens he then the next game just falls on his ass and if if you actually remember, Jeff, in that quarterback documentary that everyone watched, remember they had that game where they came back against the Colts. It was the biggest comeback in NFL history. And then he said, you know what, the next week we just sort of had a hard time getting up for that next game. Yes. And this is that. This is the same exact situation.

And there's a couple of things first of all everyone's penciling in jordan addison is number one receiver because he had a nice week like i don't think so right like he's not justin jefferson's loss has not really impacted them yet it might here jagger alexander i thought was going to play i don't it looks like he's tracking on tracking to not play which which is potentially something to consider um but you know one of the things i think that's really impacted the packers this year is the lack of aaron jones he's been injured without him their offense sort of just doesn't have that extra layer he is hopefully maybe going to be a little bit healthier this week he played

last week um i think this is just a really good buy low spot on on green bay and a sell high spot on minnesota who now after a short week has to go outside and and play a team that is desperate like you said so uh point and a half is nice by the way this open with the packers is a favorite and then it's flipped and in those situations you almost always want to take the team that has has turned into the underdog um so let's do it man jordan love what what could go wrong um all right so now we've we've got five maybes already which is really nice so yes moving into the late window there's a couple we like here um cleveland is going to seattle um line the latest line here is still three and a half interesting um i have a feeling this isn't going to be on our list but i do like cleveland there's some there's some fours by the way so cedars has a four right now

so all right so no deshaun watson right browns does that even matter pj walker it didn't matter at all to the line we laughed about this with the colts last week right seattle has just not played great football lately and i could see a situation where the browns defense just suffocates geno smith right like that that's the play for the browns here right likes defense just suffocates Geno Smith, right? Like, that's the play for the Browns here, right? Like, the defense just suffocates him, and the Browns run the ball, and they just take over in the ground game and win this game. The thing that I struggle with taking the Browns,

and maybe you can talk me out of this, and I put them in the maybes list anyways, is Seattle's a really hard place to play as a quarterback that hasn't played in that environment before. And I could see a situation where we need P.J. Walker down the stretch to get us a backdoor cover, and he just throws an interception and noise, right? Just like, that's the thing that worries me, Matt,

is P.J. Walker in Seattle in this spot. So I put the browns plus four maybe do you is it browns one of your favorite ones this week let me make the case and see how you feel after i do that um so the seahawks i i feel like the seahawks are still getting credit for the first season of last year in some ways they started i think five and three or six and three um this year their wins they had that overtime win over the lions where they i think had a plus three turnover margin a little bit of luck they've beaten the panthers the giants and the cardinals so arguably the three worst teams in the league yeah there's a few other contenders um they lost to cincy in

a game that they maybe should have won that maybe cancels out the Lions game. And they got smoked by the Rams. When you even go back to last year, at the end of the season, they beat Baker Mayfield and John Wofford when they were playing the Rams. They lost to the Panthers. They lost. They basically just ended up, they beat Zach Wilson. Like their record was really inflated from that run at the beginning of last season and gino just kind of hasn't been the same

it seems like he's a little bit banged up they've got some health issues as at their playmaking positions at receiver right like they've got dk has been dealing with an injury tyler lockett popped up on the injury report like let's see if bobo and jsn can actually beat the browns d the other thing our friend stucky at action network was talking about this the the browns play a really different they play a really physical man style defense gino's the worst quarterback in the league i think playing against a man style defense so it's not a great matchup for him the browns also like if you think about it the browns they win that game against San Francisco and everyone's all over them they kind of disappointed last week like I feel like even

though they ended up covering I think did we pick them last week yeah we did pick them and they did yeah um they still let people down I feel like because everyone expected so much of their defense I think they were still kind of coming back well they didn't play well but i think they were coming off of like a really physical big win and they still won and they still beat a team that has a really explosive offense as i mentioned the colts have scored a lot this year so i actually think it's weirdly kind of a buy low spot for cleveland and i know the quarterback thing you know backing pj on the road is a little bit tough, but you're really betting on this defense. And it's just sort of a fate of the Seahawks to, I just, you know,

call me a skeptic of the Seahawks. Like I just haven't seen it yet. They're not going to have the success running the ball that they need to sort of thrive. So I, again, tough one. We already have five games we like, but I do think at four, this belongs in the maybes. I'm probably plus four as a maybe. That works for me for now. I think you made a good case. I think that's a side for me with a defense that they have

and the way they can get at Geno Smith and make him uncomfortable. Again, Seattle's had red zone issues this year. Again, they haven't been very crisp the last two games. Against the Browns defense, you better be freaking crisp, man. Yeah, you do. All right. That's another maybe. I mean, look, this game is not going to be one of our five,

but we have to talk about it. The Kansas City Chiefs are laying seven at Denver. Patrick Mahomes has never lost a road or neutral field game against an afc west opponent which is i think the single craziest stat of any single player in the nfl um the play here would of course be denver catching the seven at home in a second matchup in you know a couple of weeks um it also you know we already talked about this Kansas City game that's in Frankfurt. They have the game against Miami next week, then a bye. And then I believe it's Philly the week after that.

Is that right? So this, in theory, would be a game where they wouldn't show everything. So the play would be Denver, but we're not going to do it. But I'll give you the space to tell me why we shouldn't. Give you the space to tell me why we shouldn't. Well, since Travis Kelsey and Taylor Swift made it official, the Chiefs are 4-1 against the spread. And they're covering games they used to never cover.

They're covering as big favorites now, which is pretty incredible. I'm just not doing what I did last week where I'm rooting for the Chiefs but for them to only win between one and six points. I'm just not doing that again. No, it's fine. We have enough games we like. It's fine. Yeah, let's skip this one. The next game though is,

I'm so curious because I don't have an opinion on it. I don't think I do. I'm curious what your thoughts are. Wow. Lines moved in this even since i started prepping uh the next one is since he at san francisco um this line was six then it moved to three and a half then sam donald got announced i'm seeing some four and a halfs actually um yeah four four and a half yeah so of course my opinion here is cincinnati um cincinnati for for the first reason is just sam darnold like i don't really need to go in much depth beyond that uh if if purdy plays then you know that's something to consider but it's's essentially just like, yeah, I mean, it's possible he ends up playing.

Maybe that's why this line has creeped back up. But basically, look, what are we exactly, like, what is this line implying? Is this line implying that San Francisco is the team that we all think they are even though for the last two weeks we've clearly seen that they're not the same team we saw last week keep in mind this is a short week we saw fred warner go down we saw dre greenlaw go down devo samuel's not going to play on this mccaffrey's still fighting through that injury uh trent williams is still fighting through that injury like they're not the same team that they were a couple of weeks ago like we'll see if if pretty you know if pretty plays like who knows exactly what you know what state is he's in i would

assume he's fine but we have to at least consider it the other thing is the bangles all season they've sort of gotten credit for being the bangles and this game it doesn't feel like they are they're coming off of a bye they have two weeks to prep for this with one of the best defensive coordinators in the league they've got t hagan's back who's been banged up all season that will totally open up this offense um and just you know just sticking with and let's just talk about joe burrow here like he's always better at this point in the season like this is just what the bangals do they turn it on when they sort of get to that second half of the year and now when he's the three

point or more three point or more underdog he's 14 and two like this guy is just awesome in this spot so I just I feel like if this is Sam Darnold I just feel like this is a smash if it's Purdy it's a little bit dicey but I I feel like the bengals could win this game outright like this is just their kind of spot they're they're that caliber right shanahan it's yes and that's a good point like in the past this is the spot where shanahan always lets you down with purdy they've covered these games uh and they've just been you know rock solid with him in there but in the past we love to take we love to fade shanahan as a favorite um they're they're also remember too like this

is a short week like they've they've lost two in a row and now they have a short week and they get joe burrow with extra rest like it just feels like a little bit of a schedule loss for san francisco um and they didn't they couldn't afford to lose last week. It's a lot of numbers that go in the direction of the Bengals here. Burrow is a – he's – look at this. He's 88% in a six-point teaser as an underdog, 21-3. That's crazy. Wow. He's 18-8 against a spread versus teams above above 500

wow yeah yeah i mean also like the niners yeah it does uh the the bangles the bangles are now catching 80 of the money but granted this line's moved in their direction um the niners have covered 10 straight at home feels like this is a little too automatic maybe this is the spot where it evens out yeah um it's risky like the niners coming off of two this is a in theory it could be a buy low spot on the niners but i don't feel like it's being priced that way i feel like it's being priced as if the bangles just aren't that team and the bangles by the way like they have to win the afc north is the best division

in football oh no yeah no i agree you think that all those other teams could win this week so i don't know it's let's put it through because we're gonna have to eliminate some anyway um but four and a half man that's a pretty good number uh we should we you see four and a half? I do. I see a four and a half. Okay. Probably me. All right. Moving on to the next. Gosh, I have so many maybes written down.

The next one is another. God damn it. It's another one I like. It's Baltimore laying eight and a half at Arizona. Okay. Who do you consider this one? Baltimore. What do you like? Three.

Okay. So, okay. A couple of things here. One is that I opened up the Action Network app, as I do. It's a great tool. Free plug. They're not a sponsor here. We just like the guys at Action Network.

Raybon was on the Ravens minus eight. Shocked. Raybon's like the best out there. You don't have to pay for his picks. He gives them out for free. He's the best. Okay, here's my only thing on this game. Is that it's not eight anymore.

It's nine and a half across. God, this feels like such a trappy game, man. You have the Ravens off this huge win. They're filling themselves. We bet against these teams all season, Matt. All season we bet against them. And this is going against the grain for us in making that wager.

So your self on this is that there's last weekend, right? The Ravens are just that much better than Baltimore. I mean, than Arizona. It doesn't really matter what Arizona does. Baltimore will blow them out.

Yeah, pretty much. I mean, here's no matter what Arizona does, Baltimore will blow them out. Yeah, pretty much. I mean, here's this. Chris, our buddy Rayvon gave out this stat this week. Joshua Dobbs is averaging fewer yards per attempt than James Conner was averaging per rush. So it was more efficient for them to hand the ball off to Conner than it was to throw. Their offense has been a complete disaster, and I think the book's just out on Josh Dobbs.

If you throw out that Cowboys game, which let's remember it's the Cowboys, they do things like that. Yeah, they had some close losses at the beginning of the season to Washington and the Giants, and then the last two weeks they lost by 19, 14, 17, and 10 to the Seahawks. And the Seahawks, I've talked about how skeptical I am of them. Baltimore, the Cardinals have a terrible pass defense. Baltimore has one of the best offenses in the league by every metric this year. I just think everyone's sort of giving Arizona credit for being competitive.

I don't really think that they are anymore. And I think the Baltimore, we mentioned just a second ago, they're a team that has to win. They, the Cardinals, you know, truly have nothing to play for.

And when Kyler Murray gets back, maybe they'll have, they'll sort of turn something on, but how is this how's this game close like what do they do is it baltimore just plays the seattle game where they just i mean the baltimore plays the pittsburgh game where they turn the ball over a bunch which feels unlikely okay i would look i've been i'm on the fade bad teams train this year it's been working for us so you don't have to convince me to fade arizona we did it last week arizona so by the way has lost games by 19 14 17 and 10 now and seattle should have won that game by a lot more last

weekend they just have not played good football so i see i i buy that i buy i buy baltimore here i do too i mean we missed the best of the number. Like the super contest is eight and a half. This is nine and a half. I feel like for that reason, when I'm staring at our list that has seven good contenders, we should probably pass on this. But love this.

I'm taking them in Survivor Baltimore. I'm not buying this like every team, the best team from the week before loses forever. Like it's been a fun thing to bet on. I don't think that that's happening this week. I think Arizona's already done it. They're not going to catch Baltimore by surprise. Their coaching staff is just too good in these kind of spots.

So Baltimore is the play, but I think amazing teaser candidate. You want to do them and the Chiefs and like, I don't know, like some, some others, maybe one of these next two, um, maybe the dolphins, um, Jeff, I lost you for a sec. Maybe you're up. It looks like you're coming back. You're back. Um, I'm here. Okay. We got the two. Yeah, I got you. We got the Sunday and Monday night games here. Jeff, I'll just tell you in advance, I don't have a side on either of these primetime games.

I don't either. Do you want to skip them for time's sake? Yeah, let's lay them out just quickly so the listeners hear them. It's the Bears at the Chargers laying eight and a half. You can't take the Chargers laying eight and a half against anyone, even Tyson Gadget. But love this as a teaser play. And then the Raiders are at the Lions. Lions off that humiliating loss, laying eight and a half.

Too big of a number. Maybe. I took Chargers for Survivor this week. Interesting. Yeah, that makes sense. That does, but, you know, it's the Chargers for Survivor this week. Interesting. Yeah, that makes sense. That does, but, you know, it's the Chargers. So if you lose on that, that's your fault. I get it, but at some point, like, I still have Baltimore available

and the Chiefs, the Niners. Like, I have a lot. If Chargers can get me through this weekend, I'm feeling pretty good, man. Yeah, Survivor's been a wild west this year the favorites of all have all won all these big games um okay i thought about the lions for survivor for on monday night uh because they're definitely not going to lose to the raiders at home yeah but you can use the lions again for like packers or vikings or bears yeah yeah they play the bears in two weeks um all right so we we have i have eight games as

maybes you're gonna go over the eight games matt yeah let's get to our vaulted picks okay yep i feel like carolina plus three and a half we could just wipe off right we're not doing that let's go through them first okay i'm not sure carolina carolina plus three and a half washington plus seven miami minus nine tennessee plus two and a half green blade plus a point half we both like that one right so that's in i think yeah cleveland plus four bangles plus four and a half baltimore minus nine and a half i like i i liked miami minus nine that's one of my favorites yeah let's let's take baltimore out because we missed the number and i think we need to just be honest with ourselves

and take Tennessee out without a quarterback. Like, that could really go wrong. It's a smart play, but it might be a little cute. That's fine. So now we have Green Bay and Miami in. Green Bay and Miami in. Okay. So now we have to do – we have three of – we need to choose three of these four.

Carolina, Washington, Cleveland. I like Cleveland a lot, plus four. It's Seattle. Right? You like that one? Yep. Yep. Okay.

So it's either now – I think we tend to – Joe Burrow on the road is a – we got to take Joe Burrow, right? Plus four and a half. Yeah, I think that's fine. And then we can pick one of these bad games for our faith. So is it Washington or Carolina? What are you taking? Man, I like both of them.

Or do you want to throw out one of the other games? No, I think they're both. I think Carolina. I would prefer carolina i would prefer not to uh i would prefer not to one other thing two two rookie quarterbacks off of a off or is it just one rookie quarterback if there's something about rookie quarterbacks off of a buy um they tend to go over so i think that this game could end up being like the adjustment like oh wow the carolina offense they've like introduced a new wrinkle after the buy like i have a feeling

this is just gonna be like a high scoring kind of fun game to watch despite it being kind of a mess so all right all right carolina man all right so it's so here we go before we get to the vaulted picks i'm gonna put these in the vaulted app app carolina plus three and a half miami minus nine green blade green bay plus a point and a half cleveland plus four cincinnati plus four and a half good which one do you feel worse about what's the one that you feel tentative about carolina probably i feel a little bit nervous about green bay looking at it i just i don't but it's the right play it's these are the right place that we we only have one backup quarterback in here miami i'm just trailing you i i buy it i think that they could absolutely smash new england even though I'm a little nervous about that.

We are getting a better number there with nine. I will say that. To get nine is way better than the ten and ten and a half I've seen this week. Alright. Let's take a break. There's our five. We're back to go over the vaulted pool. We're 23-10-2, guys. The process has been

working so far. We'll be back in a second. We'll go over the vaulted pool plays and, uh, talk more about what we're doing, uh, in the vaulted app. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with vaulted by predicting challenging and be them with your sports knowledge. Vaulted spelled V L T E D is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends

by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes, and there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools which won't happen because as you know i am smarter than you i will be using vaulted to make and store

my five favorite predictions of the week so join vaulted and you can like dislike comment interact with my predictions or if you're bold enough you can make your own and see how smart you are in football which won't be as smart as me go download vaulteded, spelled V-L-T-E-D, and remember to use the code Jeff, that's G-E-O-F-F, so you can see my predictions and play along. Guys, I want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game I have been playing this season. PrizePix is a skill-based, real-money daily fantasy sports game.

How does it work? You pick two to six players, and if they will go more or less than the prize picks projection, you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry. So go to prize picks and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. It's so easy to use. I can make my picks in less than 60 seconds.

The depositing was simple and straightforward. They even just added apple pay so i was able to get up in minutes and start playing at prize picks you're competing against other people it's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players including pros and sharks so follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better remember go to prize picks and use code g ssyY for first deposit match up to $100. All right, guys, we're back. We're going over a vaulted pool. Remember, that's V-L-T-E-D.

Come and join. Find me, Jeff. It's our pool, G-O-F-F. The winner gets $400 this week. Second place gets $75. Third place gets $25. It's 20 questions. You predict, basically, if you think it's going to happen or not.

Agree or disagree, you can do value of 1 to 10. And in the end, we add it all up and we get winners. Remember, if you beat me, you get to qualify for the big game pool, which will be $5,000 a day of the big game. Again, the Vaulted app, it's a ton of fun. We love having them as a partner this year. We've had a lot of fun doing this. So, Matt, the questions this week are always a lot of fun. They go along with obviously a lot of fun doing this so matt the the questions this week are always a lot of

fun to go along with obviously what a lot of what we do right off the bat you said this jacksville scored 20 points or more right every game so far this season so are you going to agree or disagree with jacks score more than 22.5 points against the steelers it was the colts who did that. But I will say that I, I do think the Steelers as good as their defense has been, they're good at like, they still give up a lot of points every once in a while. I, I will say, I will say that they will.

I think that we're probably just a little bit afraid to lay it with the, with the Jags. So I will take the yes on that side. I think that's more of a five pointer for me um then then a 10 pointer but i do think the jacksonville will put up some points do you uh i do i do so i would i would i would agree with that going kind of down this list here um to a tongue of a low will score more than two and a half total touchdowns against the patriots i oh so did that include rushing touchdowns? He hasn't really rushed the ball very much, though.

Maybe no Tyreek Hill in this game. I might lean to disagree with this one. And they run the ball. I think they score a bunch of points, but maybe not always in the passing game. Seven games played, only 15, not only, but 15 passing touchdowns they have the most rushing touchdowns the nfl with 15 i'll go i would go disagree here well if if that's a disagree then

our our minus nine might be it might be in trouble i i sure hope dude dude they can they can rush the ball just fine against the patriots yeah they can so can. So it could be the Randy Mostert game or the Jeff Wilson game or whatever. I hope – I'm nervous about that nine points, Jeff. I'm not going to lie. But I do think – I think Tua's – that's a good one. That's a good line. I think you could make a good argument for either side here. Okay, I love that.

I'm looking ahead at this contest here i like can i give you one in the middle of here like dac presso or more passing the matt stafford disagree give me matt stafford in this game man matt stafford again with puka nukua with cooper cup against the cowboys uh secondary the cowboys want to run the football we know that mass effort is on track to go way over we have this year for over remember this one uh well doc while more passengers must ever disagree disagree yeah i i my connection went in and out for you a bit there but i will summer i will add to that and say uh this is the kind of game that if you do like the rams you feel like they might they might even be down a little bit and they just throw their way back into this right the way that they win this game is not with royce freeman and daryl henderson it's just moving the ball down the

field i feel like they could be down 20 points and cover like it just feels like they're gonna have one of those games um to that point i think cd lamb having more receiving yards than cup i would probably fade that one um looking ahead to you you do get the ravens at the eight and a half number i think that's a that's a 10 i like that i saw that yeah yeah yes you can get the broncos plus seven and a half that would be another 10 for there. I just don't think the chiefs are going to cover by more than a touchdown. And AJ Brown, they have his receiving number 89 and a half yards against the commanders who he, that was sort of the game that turned his season around.

And he's been on that crazy, that crazy run of 125 yards a game, every single game. And I believe he had one the week before, but then he had that two touchdown 175 yard game where he popped off against last time. So I would take his over there. Be pretty confident in that one.

That's it, Matt. We have a show and we wish Matt the best of luck, him and Ivy next week. And we'll figure out what, what do you want me for one week? Oh, I am in the mountains.

I think we're done here, Matt. This is it. The internet said we're done. We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Have a good weekend, everyone. Talk to you guys later. See you, buddy.